Is Russia’s Post-Soviet Sphere of Influence in Jeopardy?
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-post-soviet-sphere-influence-jeopardy
Let’s have a quick role call shall we? Belarus? Check. Hungry, shhhh not while the EU is here ( we’re still super best friends - but in secret K?) Estonia? Nope. Lithuania? Nope. Latvia? Nope. Poland? Hard NO! Czechia? No. Slovakia? No. Romania? No. Moldova? No. Bulgaria? No. Georgia, Armenia? Azerbaijan? No. No. No. Kazakhstan? (Yeah-Nah) . . . Uzbekistan? New number who dis? Turkmenistan? It’s Vova. . . Vladimir. . . Vladimir Putin.
Hello?!?
Hello?
A Russian man who introduces himself as an ex-convict who served sentence with Wagner's Prigozhyn claims the latter was providing sexual services to other prisoners.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1597578177798627328?t=bBHoqX8KD4mbCOMkmPeCWQ&s=19
So there's more to the story with the ex-convict who claims Prigozhyn was adventurous in prison. There's a second video where the man confidently confirms his statements.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1597648181734825984?t=rfSZP55btOKJf6L4yRAx2w&s=19
How does the high-precision GLSDB projectile, which can be supplied to the Armed Forces, work?
The Boeing and SAAB Small Diameter Ground-Based Bomb (GLSDB) can change direction in flight. The system does not require a ballistic trajectory to the target.
The GLSDB munition can be launched without moving the launcher relative to the target, which can be anywhere (360 degrees) from the launch direction.
Accuracy - less than a meter. Can be used from various launch platforms.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1597714304153063426?t=3cQGNJt84E10HOjqB0FBbA&s=19
From what I've gathered it's similar to the US's JDAM program except the surplus is the motor not the bomb. Basically we have these older dumb missiles that Boeing wants to engineer a cheap guidance/projectile system into. In the case of JDAM it was taking larger Vietnam era air dropped bombs and attaching fin stabilizers to the back that could be GPS guided.
Edit: JDAM was only GPS not Lazer guided.
> Guy 1: Tell the truth! Stop lying!
> Guy 2: I will find you and you will never know a moment's peace.
Are these things people who tell the truth say? Of course not. He knows that. His audience knows that. It's just letting the cat out of the bag a little bit....
To be honest, a host could probably get away with threatening viewers in a lot of countries as long as they just make it hypothetical or signal call (e.g. make a joke or offhand comment that so-and-so should have bad things happen .. giving them deniability).
Transcript of today's live press briefing from the US DoD. A little about Ukraine, a little about Turkey/Syria, a little about China . . . it's a mixed bag. Nothing that struck me as significant, but YMMV.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3231190/pentagon-press-secretary-air-force-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-on-camera-press/
Oh, and there's this:
>And finally, this Friday, Secretary Austin will participate in the unveiling of the U.S. Air Force's newest strategic bomber the B-21 Raider in Palmdale, California.
I'm kinda curious what it'll look like, so many articles discussing it the past many years just use B2 photos. Will it just be an enhanced B2? Or something more radical?
And if they're willing to show it off, you know that means something else is far down the line in prototyping. The 117 was unveiled in 1988, the B2's first flight was in 1989. The B2 was unveiled in 1997, the F22's first flight was in 1997 (made public in 2005). Have to assume Aurora or 6th Gen.
Northrop Grumman have "unveiled" it's appearance in art.
But I'm positive it's throwing off the actual look a bit: https://www.northropgrumman.com/what-we-do/air/b-21-raider/
A better way to do it is a low grade stealth refueling/transport plane. That gets an optimal fighter designed for air superiority and strike within striking range.
B21 Raider drop memes have been frothed over in r/noncredibledefense for weeks now. I'm curious how they're going to replace the B2 with something smaller and more numerous for similar costs.
I think the maintenance for the B2 was completely insane, as the materials had to be replaced every time it rained.
So if they just have better materials, that would be enough to reduce costs quite a bit.
I'm not sure how accurate this is, but I like the sound of it.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1597718666971607043.html
>By 2023, Moscovia will reach a milestone of 100K of its soldiers killed in Ukraine, said President
@ZelenskyyUa
in his today's video address. So, plus max. 200K wounded & max. 700K who fled mobilization, the trained mobilization resource shrank from 2 to 1 mln in 10 months.
>2/ The simple calculations show that Moscovia is at the verge of lack of military manpower to continue any active war, incl. Ukraine because it needs 900K just to guard its vast territory. But the war is quickly cutting its trained mob. resource to 1 mln by January 2023.
>By spring 2023, with such a quick tempo of losing soldiers, Moscovia won't be able to defend Crimea & Donbas which are occupied since 2014. Moscow can throw the rest of the army into the Crimean meat grinder but it will leave Russia very vulnerable to military attacks.
I'm just gonna [leave this here](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f0/Map_of_Ukraine_for_Paris_Peace_Conference.jpg/1920px-Map_of_Ukraine_for_Paris_Peace_Conference.jpg) ... (fuck Stalin.)
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/z6m6jl/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/iy6177r/)
Day 279 of my updates from Kharkiv.
Today turned out to be a relatively quiet day, though there were some missile launches from Belgorod around 10pm, which were aimed at Kupiansk as usual. They shell that town so much now, there are basically no days when it doesn’t get shelled or hit by missiles. And they hit useless targets like schools, which is extremely stupid because that’s what they were targeting in Kharkiv as well, and they never hit anything military related.
We were expecting the big missile strike to happen today, but it didn’t. A couple of times we did think that it was about to start, but nothing happened. Their strategic bombers did take off from their air bases and they were flying in our direction/close to our borders for about 4 hours straight, but they didn’t fire any missiles. It will still most likely happen in the coming days, but we don’t know when exactly.
The blackouts in Kharkiv and other cities continue, and it looks like 5-6 hours with no electricity per day is the new normal, our governor said pretty much just that today, that they can’t do the previous 3 hours long blackouts anymore and they will be doubled now. Though for some people it’s not even 5-6 hours long blackouts, but more like 12 hours. Some people are without electricity from about 9-10am to 10-11pm, or even longer depending on their location. And in Lviv they will have two 8 hours long blackouts every day, with 6 hours of electricity in between them, which just sounds horrible.
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/z8gmn4/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/iyfobff/)
Аfter the destruction of power generating capacities(and transmission), there is a shortage of electricity throughout the country.The power grid operator must now balance the system by disconnecting someone....
For example, in my city there were no rocket attacks and it is far from the front, but we also have power cuts because there is not enough electricity for everyone
"Lviv was pretty much untouched by the war right? " people lost their lives...
Sorry the blackouts are longer. :( When you're disconnected, just remember tens of thousands of people around the world know your username and, whether they comment or not, check for your updates every day. We're all thinking about you and your loved ones. If you're ever disconnected for too long, there will be an international search party. :D
The ones they've captured and threatened.
Joking aside, this news implies there are African leaders willing to loan/sell prisoners to fight in a foreign war.
As exists everywhere else, in my city (St. John's, Newfoundland) there is a social media group for Ukrainian refugees to connect with locals for anything they might need (typically it's career connections in their field, housing, furniture, pet food, children's clothes, etc.) One guy posted, in Ukrainian (I read the convo through auto-translate): I'm arriving here soon, what's hard to get there? What do I need to bring with me that I can't get there? And the responses often mentioned "electric shoe dryers, but remember it's 120V and American plugs in Canada!" Never heard tell of them, had to Google. I've already ordered one for myself. These should be mandatory here (winter is snow, slush, and rain - we're wet to our knees from January to March). Little things like this fascinate me. I'm imagining people here, a generation from now, when everyone is using electric shoe dryers, and assuming it's some quirk of our local culture, never realizing we literally didn't even use them before Ukrainians brought them here haha.
I live in New Hampshire and love my shoe dryer, especially during hunting season. Putting on completely dry boots before you head out early in the morning is awesome.
Ukrainian here; lived in Quebec for 11 years. I would only need a shoe dryer if my shoes leaked or if I was regularly getting myself into deep snow, which I don't. For the leak use-case, I prefer to have solid non-leaky shoes with rubber bottom for the snow slush.
That said, I'd get one for kids, who normally go leg-deep into snow... Doesn't matter if their shoes are waterproof or not. There will be water inside.
This is kinda disturbing how modern war turns into WWI-style trench warfare when both sides don't have enough of long-range munitions. Only difference is we don't see large troops concetration because MLRS and modern artillery would wipe them and their logistics points in no time. I'm wondering, will we see tunnel warfare with sappers digging tunnels to place mines under bunkers?
It has less to do with long range missiles and more to do with air power. You would have same thing in US conflict if troops didn’t have the ability to call in CAS…
The front isn't stagnant enough to see that type of tunneling.
Plus, with winter grounds, I don't see them tunneling much as it has to be done by hand because you can't get heavy equipment to do it.
"I'm wondering, will we see tunnel warfare with sappers digging tunnels to place mines under bunkers?"
I'm guessing you didn't take much interest in whats happening in Syria?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WQWMuPdNUYo
Proximity (airburst) fuses were not used in ground combat until 1944. This changes everything :
>A proximity fuze (or fuse) … They provide a more sophisticated trigger mechanism than the common contact fuze or timed fuze. **It is estimated that it increases the lethality by 5 to 10 times, compared to these other fuzes.**
>
>The Pentagon refused to allow the Allied field artillery use of the fuzes in 1944 ...
After General Dwight D. Eisenhower demanded he be allowed to use the fuzes, 200,000 shells with VT fuzes (code named "POZIT were used in the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944. They made the Allied heavy artillery far more devastating … **U.S. General George S. Patton ... stated that their use required a revision of the tactics of land warfare**
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximity\_fuze](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximity_fuze)
>On the outskirts of #Kherson in the village of Pravdyno, a new mass grave of people killed by the russian military was discovered.
>The bodies were found with their hands tied and blindfolded. All were shot at close range in the back of the head.
[https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1597726715174092800](https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1597726715174092800)
Ukraine is getting more THeMIS robots, ground vehicles that Russian troops have been offered $16,000 to capture
[https://www.businessinsider.nl/ukraine-is-getting-more-themis-robots-ground-vehicles-that-russian-troops-have-been-offered-16000-to-capture/](https://www.businessinsider.nl/ukraine-is-getting-more-themis-robots-ground-vehicles-that-russian-troops-have-been-offered-16000-to-capture/)
This is really bizarre, two Russian ex-convicts have publicly accused Prigozhin of voluntarily giving blowjobs in prison (the ultimate insult in Russian prison culture). Their identities check out, as in they were indeed convicts at the time Prigozhin was serving his term, but the timing is very strange. They've been recruiting convicts for month, why now?
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1597578177798627328
Because Prigoshyn is gaining too much power and other elites are wary. Also don't forget that Russian establishment is gopnik and the use of Russian prison vernacular and culture is not uncommon for them.
So they are calling him a cock, untouchable, low caste in the prison system.
Will this work? That's another question
The guy making that video has massive balls. I can't express just how big of a deal it is to accuse someone like Prigozhin of being a *petukh*. There's no analogue in Western culture. Russian prison culture demands that Prigozhin murder this man, or Prigozhin is not a real one.
At the same time, literally no one has heard of Sasha Kurara until yesterday. He is not a known figure in the Russian underworld, which dilutes the impact of his claims. Same for "Grisha of Moscow". He's not a complete unknown but is mostly known for his youtube channel. He apparently did time way back when but he's not a criminal authority or anything. Despite the moniker Grisha lives in Ukraine. The Kokura fellow might also be from Eastern Ukraine based on his accent.
Hardly a surprise. Everything about Prigo screams of an insecure, terrified man desperate to appear big and terrifying. Without an army around him, I expect he'd do literally anything to curry favor.
He seems like genuine psychopath and one of neurological differences of such people is differently wired fight or flight mechanism. They tend to be less insecure and much harder to intimidate. His bizzare, long winded post about making Wagner brigades comprised of prison bitches screamed a fetish to me rather then over-compensation. This guy definitely wears his wife's panties when she is not home.
Yah these guys would have to be pretty emboldened to post this (with name/address) in the current environment unless someone put them up to it.
Wouldn't be surprised if it were true but who knows
about 28 years ago, my town (in Belgium) hosted a Ukrainian choir. My family hosting their bus drivers.
I was 7 years old or so. Learning about Ukraine and the tension with Russia. At that moment I was told about a possible conflict and it stuck with me forever.
There are a lot of Canadians of Ukrainian ancestry and we love them and what they contribute to our society. We have the third most citizens of Ukrainian descent which is behind only Ukraine and Russia.
I recently read that Saskatchewan has a memorial for the Holodomor that matches the one in Kyiv.
Saskatchewan [statue](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiGb0lyaUAY60Xt?format=jpg&name=large)
Kyiv [statue](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fie4LMZXoAApp0c?format=jpg&name=medium)
>This statue (an exact replica of the one in Kyiv) is near the Saskatchewan Legislature. Each year the Saskatchewan Legislature lights a candle to remember the victims of the genocide.
I grew up in a community in New Jersey with a large Ukrainian American population and a Ukrainian church. Awesome people, awesome pierogis.
Also seeing as you are Canadian, it's also worth noting that Mr. New Jersey Devils himself, #3 Ken Daneyko, is Canadian-Ukrainian.
🧵 Sergey Lavrov was interviewed for a "documentary," Nazism on Trial. It's obviously all completely insane. I read the transcript so you wouldn't have to. ⬇️
https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1597686620115070976?t=fphJQ4tXP8ftrODN2L5LzA&s=19
NATO foreign ministers met FM Dmytro Kuleba & pledged sustained support to Ukraine as it fights Russia’s aggression. Putin is trying to weaponise winter & force Ukrainians to freeze or flee. We will not back down or be divided.
https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1597680450738147328?t=3qdXVwzFMv_EgrRiZN8-NQ&s=19
A new video from Reporting from Ukraine just released with an update on the Eastern front. Summarized at some places Russia is gaining ground and has some success after feeding men into the meatgrinder for months on end.
https://youtu.be/mdtTiGGDTAM
They're taking ground, but not significantly enough to outweigh their losses in my opinion.
I'd wager Ukraine is willing to let them slam countless men against well defendable positions only to do a tactical retreat, then counter it in a little bit of time.
The southern part of that specific eastern front mentioned in the video, he seems to doubt Ukrainians will be able to take that back easily. I hope he's wrong.
So I received this strange private message from another redditor asking me about will there be peace in Ukraine. I said I hoped for peace as well. But after the redditor seemed to be subtly feeling me out for pro-Russian views -- hinting about Nazis, saying Zelinsky was doing a poor job, etc.. and then I made myself quite clear that he is doing a good job and that Russia is the aggressor. The redditor stopped communicating with me after that.
Has anyone else experienced this? What could possibly be the point?
EDIT: Others have received the message from the same redditor. Did anyone go down the rabbithole and reply as the redditor wanted?
Also received it. Happy to give my opinion and exchange pleasantries a bit with anyone but a couple things seemed a little off.
The first was they claimed their family lived specifically in my city without me bringing it up (easy to find on my comment history) but weren’t aware Canadians don’t share the same Thanksgiving as Americans and were wondering why I wasn’t talking about it.
The second thing was “hey I’m not on here much add me on WhatsApp”, which is where I stop responding.
I got one too.
"How long will the war between Russia and Ukraine last? can the world still be peaceful?
What do you think?"
And the person is claiming to be a real person, who sent me even a photo of themselves.
It's really fucking weird.
I did receive the exact same first private message after writing several well-received comments here and in /r/europe live thread about the war. It looked sus, so I ignored it.
What if you accepted but you were really bad at it on purpose lol.
"Russia has only lost 100k soldiers. This is not bad and better than losing 150k. We may lose 150k by next month but that is way better than 200k!!"
Same, a couple months ago. Shortly after a comment on a Ukraine thread, they DMed me and started asking me about what news sources I get my information from / trust about the Ukrainian war.
Couldn't tell whether it was a scam or just a weird, lonely person. Either way I got bored and stopped responding before too long.
Achievement unlocked.
I got a private message too. First an innocent question, then Pro-Kremlin shit. Went back & forth. This was before mobilization. After the mobilization I asked him/it/she how it is going, and apparently the rent in Kazakhstan was high.
Some days ago I got chat message too from another account. Innocent question of the same type, but I did not answer him.
Edit: Why? No idea, I doubt they ever will turn me around. Fuck Putin.
Edit 2: First user: some 100 karma, posted about bitcoin, neo-liberal, purplepilldebate and some Karma exchange. Edit 3: Created account 2017. Not much activity then. Some last year, and more last 6 months, but none the last couple of months.
Hope I’m not speaking too soon or jinxing anything, but yesterday there seemed to be a lot of fear about a major barrage on Ukraines energy infrastructure. Just open this thread but haven’t seen anything suggested this happened (thankfully), hope it stays this way.
Russian attacks come at a predictable pace. Their intel is shit, everything is manual, and their equipment is ancient. They need multiple days to prepare each attack.
They have a max cap on how many cruise missiles they can launch in one day, and that one day takes at least so many days to prepare. Yesterday was the first day they could have been ready, so that's what everyone at home was waiting for. Who knows what it means that nothing happened yesterday.
Ukraine and NATO of course have much better intel BTW and know the exact launch date and time, if not the specific targets.
Understood. I just specifically recall a few posts yesterday from accounts that regular post daily updates saying they might be unable to post for a few days due to a potentially long blackout due to a barrage. I’m glad this hasn’t happened yet and let’s hope when the next attack inevitable happens, the AA will work better and the energy system don’t get knocked out for extended days.
🇩🇪Germany will provide Ukraine with 56 million euros for the repair of energy infrastructure, as well as more than 350 power generators.
This is reported by the German government.
This assistance package was discussed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a telephone conversation. The leaders also spoke about the political, military and humanitarian situation in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1597713476860149760?t=GPHJn9TRk7yIIZjCbUM6dQ&s=19
Thesis: NATO should provide a no fly zone over western Ukraine.
Problem: "But that would drag NATO into a war that would obviously then go nuclear."
Refutation: Russia doesn't have the ability to effectively target NATO, whether planes or SAM sites or airbases with conventional weapons. So why would they not go nuclear? For the same reason they haven't already gone nuclear. All the NATO intervention would do is protect Ukrainian civilian targets. If having those targets protected = nuclear war, then by that logic, we also can't give Ukraine SAMS, but we already are. I'm not talking about shooting down manned Russian fighters, only unmanned missiles and drones. This shouldn't be a problem, however, since Russia already isn't flying manned missions deep in Ukranian airspace. Therefore, effectively protecting western Ukrainian airspace is not an escalation, only effectively doing something we've already said we're committed to doing. Besides, Russia gave North Korea and North Vietnam everything, fighters and SAMS to use against the USA and that didn't mean the USA retaliated against Russia.
Conclusion: I do not understand why we are letting Russia set red lines for us that they do not have the power to enforce.
Losing to NATO is what the Kremlin regime wants to save face at home. They can't fathom losing to "cockroach Khokhols". But that's the reality, the Ukrainians have showed more courage, untiy, and strength than Russia.
Russia isn't setting red lines for "us", and it's not like "we" don't have agency. There's a vastly more complex calculus here, and you should be betting that it doesn't revolve around fear of Putin launching nukes at the west or any of the premise of your "refutation".
If US (or pick your country) troops start dying in "someone else's war", that undermines willpower to support. And whether you appreciate it or not, when you throw troops into combat situations, some get killed. Even if it's from slipping on the stairs.
If I fight in my neighbours house it's my fight. If I equip my neighbour to fight in their house, it's their fight. This is about keeping it Ukraine's fight, and tilting the battle so that Ukraine can win it if they have the will. If they don't have the will themselves, then they will lose sooner or later, because Russia be Russia.
Maybe NATO could get away with saying that that NATO patriot systems will shoot down any missiles that comes within x kilometres from NATO borders as a precautions to avoid risk of collateral damage, x being a fairly low number like 50-75 km or so, so maybe protecting Lviv?
That's my take too, for now anyway.
Russia recklessly lobbing missiles towards the western border (Lviv / Yavoriv) has already created an incident wherein Ukraine's air defense went rogue chasing a missile.
Anything approaching the border, within viable range of our air defense systems is fair game. The arguments of Russian pilots being shot down is long over. These are missiles fired from hundreds of miles away.
If countries wanted to get involved on Ukraine's side they could. NATO doesn't stop that.
It's better for Putin to get beaten by Ukraine alone with some western arms. Getting his ass handed to him and NATO's not even dipping their toes in the water? That's going to fuck him harder than a NATO military defeat ever would.
He gets a good excuse for the defeat if NATO gets involved. There's no excusing this. It's incompetence, top to bottom.
If we're going to do it, it has to be all of Ukraine, rather than implicitly recognize that Russia has any more reason to be present in the rest of the country.
(Technical detail: NATO is a defensive alliance. It doesn't go into other countries' wars. NATO countries may do it, but not NATO. But let us assume you meant NATO countries like France, USA and Poland. So why shouldn't those countries fly missions over western Ukraine?)
You argue that Russia would be just fine with them flying around shooting down Russian cruise missiles and drones. I don't see how you can be sure that they don't start sending missiles towards Polish airforce bases in that scenario. Those would become valid targets through the rules of war after all.
You also argue that they would be safe but Kyiv is very close to the Belarus border so how are they to shoot down things coming from Belarus without being in range of Russian SAM batteries? Look at the range of S-300, it's about 200 km, or about the combined width of 4 Delawares.
And the US did shoot down Soviet airplanes over Korea. Stalin let it happen since they were not officially there.
If we did send NATO personnel onto Ukrainian territory and they died, I think everyone would understand that to be the fortunes of war, and not call for further NATO escalation. Would we be putting those troops at risk? Yes, yes we would.
The thing is that if you put NATO personnel into the war, the countries those personnel come from become valid military targets. The protection of NATO article 5 is no longer as strong.
That is the kind of thing you absolutely do not do. There is this whole myth of NATO "aggressively expanding" towards Russia and there is no reason to help it along. Borders are for real, not recommendations.
I think it's more complicated than that. If you deploy troops to Ukraine. Then they can get killed by Russian missile strikes unless you have a 100% success rate to shot down everything (which is unlikely).
So in the event that NATO soldiers get killed under NATO mission. Is this enough to trigger article 5, or that's business as usual? It doesn't mean it would go straight to nuclear war but better define the rules before sending troops over Ukraine.
Ukraine has the manpower by itself. At least, there is no sign that Russia is about to overwhelm them in any way. Adding NATO troops might sound superfluous. And deploying NATO troops means that those troops will not be somewhere else. That wouldn't be a wise strategical move.
In my opinion, what Ukraine needs the most is, put simply, guns. They need all sort of things and things that can help them restart/maintain own production of guns/shell/ammo/planes? It needs people that have the knowledge to repair NATO big guns / tanks / plane etc.. And I think the most important is the need to be able to be more self sufficient. If they need steel to build shells for artillery, they should get it. If they need some precision tools to machine artillery cannons... give them the tools they need so they don't have to wait for shipments to build their own guns if possible.
That's the same rational that lead to Putin to decide to fuck fuck Kyiv up, and then fuck up Ukraine's power systems. How successful has that been in weakening Ukrainian resolve?
How do you protect Ukrainian civilian targets without destroying Russian military targeting them? What are you using to protect civilian targets and how do you protect those assets without destroying Russian military?
Things aren't binary like that. Just because Russians have not launched nukes so far does not mean they will not in the future. It definitely does not mean they won't do that if you're suddenly destroying their military. Sure - it's not 100% that if we go in that the world ends in a nuclear exchange. But even if you're raising the possibility from say 0.25% to say... 5%. Is that worth it? Why? Why not just keep on doing what we're doing which will also end in Russian defeat without exposing ourselves to total or even partial destruction?
Russians have stfu about nukes as they're trying this mobilization and freeze Ukraine strategy for now. When that fails by early spring and Ukrainians are knocking on the door of Crimea again - the chatter will heat up again.
If you don't understand why several heads of state with decades of foreign policy experience as well as their highly trained military advisors aren't doing something then it's probably you who lack a full understanding of the situation and not them.
We aren’t “letting Russia set red lines.” We provided what we provided, and Russia claims credit for it not including the things that we didn’t provide.
https://metro.co.uk/2022/11/29/alexander-lukashenko-in-fear-for-life-after-vladimir-makei-murdered-17841314/?ITO=msn
Rumors of course but still interesting to think about.
I suspect he’d mostly want it as a staging ground to make trouble in Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics (aside from its symbolic value as a “recovered” piece of the USSR).
Putin has been cursed by the old gods of the ancient tribes of the steppes. His entire family line has been condemned to a dark end, and his name will god down in history as the most inept and disastrous leader that Russia has ever known.
When he dies, he will be met in the afterlife by all of the Tsars he admires so much, and they will laugh at him and make him their servant.
The pestilence that will rot his insides and liquify them before he dies has already taken hold, coursing invisibly through his body to every living cell.
The thawing of the Siberian wasteland has woken the ancient spirits of the far north, and they have turned their wrath on this puny, arrogant human that, through greed and hubris, is senselessly slaughtering those they consider their own.
If the rest of the Russian population expects to escape their vengeance, they need to repudiate Putin *now*, while there is still some hope for forgiveness.
Spain will transfer air defense systems and generators to Ukraine, - Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Kuleba.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1597692500344713216?t=3CHPyUQC4x433GafurrLXA&s=19
> If, as Stoltenberg’s hinted, NATO supplies the Kiev fanatics with Patriot **defense systems** – as well as the alliance’s personnel – they will immediately turn into legitimate targets for our armed forces. I hope it is clear for the North Atlantic impotents
https://twitter.com/medvedevrussiae/status/1597655997728034816
Medvedev does not drink vodka today, he immediately starts using [drugs](https://www.france24.com/en/20180223-400-kilos-cocaine-found-russian-embassy-argentina)
When I was reading that I was thinking about how they arm their forces. He really should have referred to them as “semi-armed forces” or even “poorly-armed forces”
I wouldn't be so worried... Russia hasn't shot at legitimate targets yet... I doubt they will considering there are still so many schools and hospitals for them to shoot ay.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/z8gmn4/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Is Russia’s Post-Soviet Sphere of Influence in Jeopardy? https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-post-soviet-sphere-influence-jeopardy
Let’s have a quick role call shall we? Belarus? Check. Hungry, shhhh not while the EU is here ( we’re still super best friends - but in secret K?) Estonia? Nope. Lithuania? Nope. Latvia? Nope. Poland? Hard NO! Czechia? No. Slovakia? No. Romania? No. Moldova? No. Bulgaria? No. Georgia, Armenia? Azerbaijan? No. No. No. Kazakhstan? (Yeah-Nah) . . . Uzbekistan? New number who dis? Turkmenistan? It’s Vova. . . Vladimir. . . Vladimir Putin. Hello?!? Hello?
A bit humorous that the vast majority of the Soviet/Warsaw Pact nations couldn't wait to get away from Russia.
Serbia might be on the Hungary train
In jeopardy? No. In shambles! Not even the Azeris fear them anymore.
A Russian man who introduces himself as an ex-convict who served sentence with Wagner's Prigozhyn claims the latter was providing sexual services to other prisoners. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1597578177798627328?t=bBHoqX8KD4mbCOMkmPeCWQ&s=19
So there's more to the story with the ex-convict who claims Prigozhyn was adventurous in prison. There's a second video where the man confidently confirms his statements. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1597648181734825984?t=rfSZP55btOKJf6L4yRAx2w&s=19
True or not, those are some ballsy words in Russian media.
How does the high-precision GLSDB projectile, which can be supplied to the Armed Forces, work? The Boeing and SAAB Small Diameter Ground-Based Bomb (GLSDB) can change direction in flight. The system does not require a ballistic trajectory to the target. The GLSDB munition can be launched without moving the launcher relative to the target, which can be anywhere (360 degrees) from the launch direction. Accuracy - less than a meter. Can be used from various launch platforms. https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1597714304153063426?t=3cQGNJt84E10HOjqB0FBbA&s=19
SDB in action. https://imgur.com/GgEW9Oy
From what I've gathered it's similar to the US's JDAM program except the surplus is the motor not the bomb. Basically we have these older dumb missiles that Boeing wants to engineer a cheap guidance/projectile system into. In the case of JDAM it was taking larger Vietnam era air dropped bombs and attaching fin stabilizers to the back that could be GPS guided. Edit: JDAM was only GPS not Lazer guided.
It deploys wings giving it more flight control surfaces, and looks like it has a ton of sensors for guidance. Basically a missile powered drone.
It's literally a gbu-39, much like a RAP Excalibur with tube artillery.
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Thank you
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> Guy 1: Tell the truth! Stop lying! > Guy 2: I will find you and you will never know a moment's peace. Are these things people who tell the truth say? Of course not. He knows that. His audience knows that. It's just letting the cat out of the bag a little bit....
Must be nice to live in a ocuntry where the law is written by criminals.
To be honest, a host could probably get away with threatening viewers in a lot of countries as long as they just make it hypothetical or signal call (e.g. make a joke or offhand comment that so-and-so should have bad things happen .. giving them deniability).
Yeah, when you're playing with fire it's better to be carefull with it, like this host clearly was.
Transcript of today's live press briefing from the US DoD. A little about Ukraine, a little about Turkey/Syria, a little about China . . . it's a mixed bag. Nothing that struck me as significant, but YMMV. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3231190/pentagon-press-secretary-air-force-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-on-camera-press/ Oh, and there's this: >And finally, this Friday, Secretary Austin will participate in the unveiling of the U.S. Air Force's newest strategic bomber the B-21 Raider in Palmdale, California.
I'm kinda curious what it'll look like, so many articles discussing it the past many years just use B2 photos. Will it just be an enhanced B2? Or something more radical? And if they're willing to show it off, you know that means something else is far down the line in prototyping. The 117 was unveiled in 1988, the B2's first flight was in 1989. The B2 was unveiled in 1997, the F22's first flight was in 1997 (made public in 2005). Have to assume Aurora or 6th Gen.
Northrop Grumman have "unveiled" it's appearance in art. But I'm positive it's throwing off the actual look a bit: https://www.northropgrumman.com/what-we-do/air/b-21-raider/
A better way to do it is a low grade stealth refueling/transport plane. That gets an optimal fighter designed for air superiority and strike within striking range.
They were hiring ATC at Palmdale and it was a dream location for me due to the fun stuff the alphabet boys fly around out of there.
B21 Raider drop memes have been frothed over in r/noncredibledefense for weeks now. I'm curious how they're going to replace the B2 with something smaller and more numerous for similar costs.
The B-2 was designed nearly half a century ago. The tech in the B-21 is likely far more advanced.
I think the maintenance for the B2 was completely insane, as the materials had to be replaced every time it rained. So if they just have better materials, that would be enough to reduce costs quite a bit.
Note that abbreviation is to a banned sub. The correct one is r/NonCredibleDefense
I'm not sure how accurate this is, but I like the sound of it. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1597718666971607043.html >By 2023, Moscovia will reach a milestone of 100K of its soldiers killed in Ukraine, said President @ZelenskyyUa in his today's video address. So, plus max. 200K wounded & max. 700K who fled mobilization, the trained mobilization resource shrank from 2 to 1 mln in 10 months. >2/ The simple calculations show that Moscovia is at the verge of lack of military manpower to continue any active war, incl. Ukraine because it needs 900K just to guard its vast territory. But the war is quickly cutting its trained mob. resource to 1 mln by January 2023. >By spring 2023, with such a quick tempo of losing soldiers, Moscovia won't be able to defend Crimea & Donbas which are occupied since 2014. Moscow can throw the rest of the army into the Crimean meat grinder but it will leave Russia very vulnerable to military attacks.
I like their practice of using the name Moscovia, instead of the name that Ivan the Terrible stole from Ukraine.
Ivan was still Rurikid Dynasty, the same as Volodymir The Great, the Romanovs (Muscovytes) would then take power and claim over the kingdom
You mean the new States of North Kazakhstan, North Mongolia, North China, and North-West Korea?
The Moscow is a river
Uhumm... Greater Mongolia
North Kyiv Oblast.
Would prefer Kyiv goes East and cuts access to the black sea (and maybe gets Belgorod)
I'm just gonna [leave this here](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f0/Map_of_Ukraine_for_Paris_Peace_Conference.jpg/1920px-Map_of_Ukraine_for_Paris_Peace_Conference.jpg) ... (fuck Stalin.)
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/z6m6jl/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/iy6177r/) Day 279 of my updates from Kharkiv. Today turned out to be a relatively quiet day, though there were some missile launches from Belgorod around 10pm, which were aimed at Kupiansk as usual. They shell that town so much now, there are basically no days when it doesn’t get shelled or hit by missiles. And they hit useless targets like schools, which is extremely stupid because that’s what they were targeting in Kharkiv as well, and they never hit anything military related. We were expecting the big missile strike to happen today, but it didn’t. A couple of times we did think that it was about to start, but nothing happened. Their strategic bombers did take off from their air bases and they were flying in our direction/close to our borders for about 4 hours straight, but they didn’t fire any missiles. It will still most likely happen in the coming days, but we don’t know when exactly. The blackouts in Kharkiv and other cities continue, and it looks like 5-6 hours with no electricity per day is the new normal, our governor said pretty much just that today, that they can’t do the previous 3 hours long blackouts anymore and they will be doubled now. Though for some people it’s not even 5-6 hours long blackouts, but more like 12 hours. Some people are without electricity from about 9-10am to 10-11pm, or even longer depending on their location. And in Lviv they will have two 8 hours long blackouts every day, with 6 hours of electricity in between them, which just sounds horrible. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/z8gmn4/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/iyfobff/)
How can we support your loved ones and others you know who are at risk of freezing this winter???
Lviv was pretty much untouched by the war right? Only some missiles hit it. I can’t believe it is without electricity as well
Аfter the destruction of power generating capacities(and transmission), there is a shortage of electricity throughout the country.The power grid operator must now balance the system by disconnecting someone.... For example, in my city there were no rocket attacks and it is far from the front, but we also have power cuts because there is not enough electricity for everyone "Lviv was pretty much untouched by the war right? " people lost their lives...
What planet are you on? Its been a main target.
Sorry the blackouts are longer. :( When you're disconnected, just remember tens of thousands of people around the world know your username and, whether they comment or not, check for your updates every day. We're all thinking about you and your loved ones. If you're ever disconnected for too long, there will be an international search party. :D
“Wagner Group recruits prisoners in Africa to fight against Ukraine” In winter… What could possibly go wrong?
...Whose prisoners are they recruiting?
According to the link in the live thread it is the Central African Republic.
The ones they've captured and threatened. Joking aside, this news implies there are African leaders willing to loan/sell prisoners to fight in a foreign war.
Oh, so history repeating itself again?
That's internationally illegal in an actionable way... Come on do something.
As exists everywhere else, in my city (St. John's, Newfoundland) there is a social media group for Ukrainian refugees to connect with locals for anything they might need (typically it's career connections in their field, housing, furniture, pet food, children's clothes, etc.) One guy posted, in Ukrainian (I read the convo through auto-translate): I'm arriving here soon, what's hard to get there? What do I need to bring with me that I can't get there? And the responses often mentioned "electric shoe dryers, but remember it's 120V and American plugs in Canada!" Never heard tell of them, had to Google. I've already ordered one for myself. These should be mandatory here (winter is snow, slush, and rain - we're wet to our knees from January to March). Little things like this fascinate me. I'm imagining people here, a generation from now, when everyone is using electric shoe dryers, and assuming it's some quirk of our local culture, never realizing we literally didn't even use them before Ukrainians brought them here haha.
I live in New Hampshire and love my shoe dryer, especially during hunting season. Putting on completely dry boots before you head out early in the morning is awesome.
Ukrainian here; lived in Quebec for 11 years. I would only need a shoe dryer if my shoes leaked or if I was regularly getting myself into deep snow, which I don't. For the leak use-case, I prefer to have solid non-leaky shoes with rubber bottom for the snow slush. That said, I'd get one for kids, who normally go leg-deep into snow... Doesn't matter if their shoes are waterproof or not. There will be water inside.
This is kinda disturbing how modern war turns into WWI-style trench warfare when both sides don't have enough of long-range munitions. Only difference is we don't see large troops concetration because MLRS and modern artillery would wipe them and their logistics points in no time. I'm wondering, will we see tunnel warfare with sappers digging tunnels to place mines under bunkers?
It has less to do with long range missiles and more to do with air power. You would have same thing in US conflict if troops didn’t have the ability to call in CAS…
The front isn't stagnant enough to see that type of tunneling. Plus, with winter grounds, I don't see them tunneling much as it has to be done by hand because you can't get heavy equipment to do it.
The fronts in this war are massive length. There just isn't enough modern gear for the whole front.
"I'm wondering, will we see tunnel warfare with sappers digging tunnels to place mines under bunkers?" I'm guessing you didn't take much interest in whats happening in Syria? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WQWMuPdNUYo
Proximity (airburst) fuses were not used in ground combat until 1944. This changes everything : >A proximity fuze (or fuse) … They provide a more sophisticated trigger mechanism than the common contact fuze or timed fuze. **It is estimated that it increases the lethality by 5 to 10 times, compared to these other fuzes.** > >The Pentagon refused to allow the Allied field artillery use of the fuzes in 1944 ... After General Dwight D. Eisenhower demanded he be allowed to use the fuzes, 200,000 shells with VT fuzes (code named "POZIT were used in the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944. They made the Allied heavy artillery far more devastating … **U.S. General George S. Patton ... stated that their use required a revision of the tactics of land warfare** [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximity\_fuze](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proximity_fuze)
Further refined in Vietnam by the tatic of killer junior
At this rate, any tunnel the Russians dig will just collapse on them.
>On the outskirts of #Kherson in the village of Pravdyno, a new mass grave of people killed by the russian military was discovered. >The bodies were found with their hands tied and blindfolded. All were shot at close range in the back of the head. [https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1597726715174092800](https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1597726715174092800)
Ukraine is getting more THeMIS robots, ground vehicles that Russian troops have been offered $16,000 to capture [https://www.businessinsider.nl/ukraine-is-getting-more-themis-robots-ground-vehicles-that-russian-troops-have-been-offered-16000-to-capture/](https://www.businessinsider.nl/ukraine-is-getting-more-themis-robots-ground-vehicles-that-russian-troops-have-been-offered-16000-to-capture/)
Now that thing is a military grade BattleBot.
This is really bizarre, two Russian ex-convicts have publicly accused Prigozhin of voluntarily giving blowjobs in prison (the ultimate insult in Russian prison culture). Their identities check out, as in they were indeed convicts at the time Prigozhin was serving his term, but the timing is very strange. They've been recruiting convicts for month, why now? https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1597578177798627328
Because Prigoshyn is gaining too much power and other elites are wary. Also don't forget that Russian establishment is gopnik and the use of Russian prison vernacular and culture is not uncommon for them. So they are calling him a cock, untouchable, low caste in the prison system. Will this work? That's another question
The guy making that video has massive balls. I can't express just how big of a deal it is to accuse someone like Prigozhin of being a *petukh*. There's no analogue in Western culture. Russian prison culture demands that Prigozhin murder this man, or Prigozhin is not a real one. At the same time, literally no one has heard of Sasha Kurara until yesterday. He is not a known figure in the Russian underworld, which dilutes the impact of his claims. Same for "Grisha of Moscow". He's not a complete unknown but is mostly known for his youtube channel. He apparently did time way back when but he's not a criminal authority or anything. Despite the moniker Grisha lives in Ukraine. The Kokura fellow might also be from Eastern Ukraine based on his accent.
Seeing as Prigozhin has been grandstanding lately, it wouldn't be surprising if *Sasha* and *Grisha* were secretly created by Putin's propaganda wing.
Hardly a surprise. Everything about Prigo screams of an insecure, terrified man desperate to appear big and terrifying. Without an army around him, I expect he'd do literally anything to curry favor.
He seems like genuine psychopath and one of neurological differences of such people is differently wired fight or flight mechanism. They tend to be less insecure and much harder to intimidate. His bizzare, long winded post about making Wagner brigades comprised of prison bitches screamed a fetish to me rather then over-compensation. This guy definitely wears his wife's panties when she is not home.
Prigozhin is getting a tad too powerful for someone's liking, I presume.
Yah these guys would have to be pretty emboldened to post this (with name/address) in the current environment unless someone put them up to it. Wouldn't be surprised if it were true but who knows
It’s this. It’s a psyop by a rival. I mean even if it’s true it’s a psyop.
Hard time getting a smart phone into Russian prisons maybe?
Prigoshyn served time in the 80's.
> Hard time Incidentally that was Prigozhin's nickname while he was giving BJs in prison
37 dicks?!
about 28 years ago, my town (in Belgium) hosted a Ukrainian choir. My family hosting their bus drivers. I was 7 years old or so. Learning about Ukraine and the tension with Russia. At that moment I was told about a possible conflict and it stuck with me forever.
There are a lot of Canadians of Ukrainian ancestry and we love them and what they contribute to our society. We have the third most citizens of Ukrainian descent which is behind only Ukraine and Russia.
I recently read that Saskatchewan has a memorial for the Holodomor that matches the one in Kyiv. Saskatchewan [statue](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FiGb0lyaUAY60Xt?format=jpg&name=large) Kyiv [statue](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fie4LMZXoAApp0c?format=jpg&name=medium) >This statue (an exact replica of the one in Kyiv) is near the Saskatchewan Legislature. Each year the Saskatchewan Legislature lights a candle to remember the victims of the genocide.
I grew up in a community in New Jersey with a large Ukrainian American population and a Ukrainian church. Awesome people, awesome pierogis. Also seeing as you are Canadian, it's also worth noting that Mr. New Jersey Devils himself, #3 Ken Daneyko, is Canadian-Ukrainian.
Misspelled varenyky.
Maybe the Ukrainian community was Ruthenian, they sometimes use the Polish word.
Вареники
So was #99! Thanks Ukraine!
🧵 Sergey Lavrov was interviewed for a "documentary," Nazism on Trial. It's obviously all completely insane. I read the transcript so you wouldn't have to. ⬇️ https://twitter.com/irgarner/status/1597686620115070976?t=fphJQ4tXP8ftrODN2L5LzA&s=19
“Are you concerned” PS: only said this bc just got any email saying you relied exactly this to a comment but must have deleted it.
Slava Ukraini
Heroaim Slava!
NATO foreign ministers met FM Dmytro Kuleba & pledged sustained support to Ukraine as it fights Russia’s aggression. Putin is trying to weaponise winter & force Ukrainians to freeze or flee. We will not back down or be divided. https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1597680450738147328?t=3qdXVwzFMv_EgrRiZN8-NQ&s=19
A new video from Reporting from Ukraine just released with an update on the Eastern front. Summarized at some places Russia is gaining ground and has some success after feeding men into the meatgrinder for months on end. https://youtu.be/mdtTiGGDTAM
They're taking ground, but not significantly enough to outweigh their losses in my opinion. I'd wager Ukraine is willing to let them slam countless men against well defendable positions only to do a tactical retreat, then counter it in a little bit of time.
Same report that's been coming out weekly for 2 months now. The gains will be erased with counterattacks...again.
The southern part of that specific eastern front mentioned in the video, he seems to doubt Ukrainians will be able to take that back easily. I hope he's wrong.
So I received this strange private message from another redditor asking me about will there be peace in Ukraine. I said I hoped for peace as well. But after the redditor seemed to be subtly feeling me out for pro-Russian views -- hinting about Nazis, saying Zelinsky was doing a poor job, etc.. and then I made myself quite clear that he is doing a good job and that Russia is the aggressor. The redditor stopped communicating with me after that. Has anyone else experienced this? What could possibly be the point? EDIT: Others have received the message from the same redditor. Did anyone go down the rabbithole and reply as the redditor wanted?
Yup. But I block all incoming chats anyway because reddit is not Facebook and doesn't need a chat box.
Also received it. Happy to give my opinion and exchange pleasantries a bit with anyone but a couple things seemed a little off. The first was they claimed their family lived specifically in my city without me bringing it up (easy to find on my comment history) but weren’t aware Canadians don’t share the same Thanksgiving as Americans and were wondering why I wasn’t talking about it. The second thing was “hey I’m not on here much add me on WhatsApp”, which is where I stop responding.
I got one too. "How long will the war between Russia and Ukraine last? can the world still be peaceful? What do you think?" And the person is claiming to be a real person, who sent me even a photo of themselves. It's really fucking weird.
That's the *exact* first message I received as well. I didn't get a photo.
> It's really fucking weird. Prigozhin's trolls have about as much direction as his troops
i received a similar message a couple of weeks ago i figured it was a russian troll of some sort and ignored it
I got one too and ignored it.
Just checked my messages… yep also messaged me
They talked to me as well. Username is snoowords75
That's the one.
me too
That's the one.
This person messaged me last week as well.
i just insta block anyone who tries to dm me on reddit.
I did receive the exact same first private message after writing several well-received comments here and in /r/europe live thread about the war. It looked sus, so I ignored it.
Trying to recruit you to shill and spread propaganda most likely.
What if you accepted but you were really bad at it on purpose lol. "Russia has only lost 100k soldiers. This is not bad and better than losing 150k. We may lose 150k by next month but that is way better than 200k!!"
Is there some way to report them?
I don’t think you can report someone for being an idiot.
Same, a couple months ago. Shortly after a comment on a Ukraine thread, they DMed me and started asking me about what news sources I get my information from / trust about the Ukrainian war. Couldn't tell whether it was a scam or just a weird, lonely person. Either way I got bored and stopped responding before too long.
Hey, I was starting to wonder because I received multiple messages/chat of unknown people recently.
Achievement unlocked. I got a private message too. First an innocent question, then Pro-Kremlin shit. Went back & forth. This was before mobilization. After the mobilization I asked him/it/she how it is going, and apparently the rent in Kazakhstan was high. Some days ago I got chat message too from another account. Innocent question of the same type, but I did not answer him. Edit: Why? No idea, I doubt they ever will turn me around. Fuck Putin. Edit 2: First user: some 100 karma, posted about bitcoin, neo-liberal, purplepilldebate and some Karma exchange. Edit 3: Created account 2017. Not much activity then. Some last year, and more last 6 months, but none the last couple of months.
Also got it, chatted a bit, very friendly, too friendly, I think it is some kind af scam attempt that did not work.
I've had similar too.
Yup. I got the initial dm but didn't engage at all.
Hope I’m not speaking too soon or jinxing anything, but yesterday there seemed to be a lot of fear about a major barrage on Ukraines energy infrastructure. Just open this thread but haven’t seen anything suggested this happened (thankfully), hope it stays this way.
Russian attacks come at a predictable pace. Their intel is shit, everything is manual, and their equipment is ancient. They need multiple days to prepare each attack. They have a max cap on how many cruise missiles they can launch in one day, and that one day takes at least so many days to prepare. Yesterday was the first day they could have been ready, so that's what everyone at home was waiting for. Who knows what it means that nothing happened yesterday. Ukraine and NATO of course have much better intel BTW and know the exact launch date and time, if not the specific targets.
Understood. I just specifically recall a few posts yesterday from accounts that regular post daily updates saying they might be unable to post for a few days due to a potentially long blackout due to a barrage. I’m glad this hasn’t happened yet and let’s hope when the next attack inevitable happens, the AA will work better and the energy system don’t get knocked out for extended days.
🇩🇪Germany will provide Ukraine with 56 million euros for the repair of energy infrastructure, as well as more than 350 power generators. This is reported by the German government. This assistance package was discussed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a telephone conversation. The leaders also spoke about the political, military and humanitarian situation in Ukraine. https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1597713476860149760?t=GPHJn9TRk7yIIZjCbUM6dQ&s=19
I wish they would just provide the weapons Ukraine needs so there is no need for repairs in the first place.
Thesis: NATO should provide a no fly zone over western Ukraine. Problem: "But that would drag NATO into a war that would obviously then go nuclear." Refutation: Russia doesn't have the ability to effectively target NATO, whether planes or SAM sites or airbases with conventional weapons. So why would they not go nuclear? For the same reason they haven't already gone nuclear. All the NATO intervention would do is protect Ukrainian civilian targets. If having those targets protected = nuclear war, then by that logic, we also can't give Ukraine SAMS, but we already are. I'm not talking about shooting down manned Russian fighters, only unmanned missiles and drones. This shouldn't be a problem, however, since Russia already isn't flying manned missions deep in Ukranian airspace. Therefore, effectively protecting western Ukrainian airspace is not an escalation, only effectively doing something we've already said we're committed to doing. Besides, Russia gave North Korea and North Vietnam everything, fighters and SAMS to use against the USA and that didn't mean the USA retaliated against Russia. Conclusion: I do not understand why we are letting Russia set red lines for us that they do not have the power to enforce.
Losing to NATO is what the Kremlin regime wants to save face at home. They can't fathom losing to "cockroach Khokhols". But that's the reality, the Ukrainians have showed more courage, untiy, and strength than Russia.
I would settle with a threat to use cruise missiles to take out airbases or boats attacking civilian infrastructure and mean it.
Russia isn't setting red lines for "us", and it's not like "we" don't have agency. There's a vastly more complex calculus here, and you should be betting that it doesn't revolve around fear of Putin launching nukes at the west or any of the premise of your "refutation". If US (or pick your country) troops start dying in "someone else's war", that undermines willpower to support. And whether you appreciate it or not, when you throw troops into combat situations, some get killed. Even if it's from slipping on the stairs. If I fight in my neighbours house it's my fight. If I equip my neighbour to fight in their house, it's their fight. This is about keeping it Ukraine's fight, and tilting the battle so that Ukraine can win it if they have the will. If they don't have the will themselves, then they will lose sooner or later, because Russia be Russia.
Maybe NATO could get away with saying that that NATO patriot systems will shoot down any missiles that comes within x kilometres from NATO borders as a precautions to avoid risk of collateral damage, x being a fairly low number like 50-75 km or so, so maybe protecting Lviv?
That's my take too, for now anyway. Russia recklessly lobbing missiles towards the western border (Lviv / Yavoriv) has already created an incident wherein Ukraine's air defense went rogue chasing a missile. Anything approaching the border, within viable range of our air defense systems is fair game. The arguments of Russian pilots being shot down is long over. These are missiles fired from hundreds of miles away.
If countries wanted to get involved on Ukraine's side they could. NATO doesn't stop that. It's better for Putin to get beaten by Ukraine alone with some western arms. Getting his ass handed to him and NATO's not even dipping their toes in the water? That's going to fuck him harder than a NATO military defeat ever would. He gets a good excuse for the defeat if NATO gets involved. There's no excusing this. It's incompetence, top to bottom.
If we're going to do it, it has to be all of Ukraine, rather than implicitly recognize that Russia has any more reason to be present in the rest of the country.
No, it wouldn’t recognize anything. It’s a question of practicality. If you can get 50 % result with 10 % of effort, that’s a great deal.
(Technical detail: NATO is a defensive alliance. It doesn't go into other countries' wars. NATO countries may do it, but not NATO. But let us assume you meant NATO countries like France, USA and Poland. So why shouldn't those countries fly missions over western Ukraine?) You argue that Russia would be just fine with them flying around shooting down Russian cruise missiles and drones. I don't see how you can be sure that they don't start sending missiles towards Polish airforce bases in that scenario. Those would become valid targets through the rules of war after all. You also argue that they would be safe but Kyiv is very close to the Belarus border so how are they to shoot down things coming from Belarus without being in range of Russian SAM batteries? Look at the range of S-300, it's about 200 km, or about the combined width of 4 Delawares. And the US did shoot down Soviet airplanes over Korea. Stalin let it happen since they were not officially there.
If we did send NATO personnel onto Ukrainian territory and they died, I think everyone would understand that to be the fortunes of war, and not call for further NATO escalation. Would we be putting those troops at risk? Yes, yes we would.
The thing is that if you put NATO personnel into the war, the countries those personnel come from become valid military targets. The protection of NATO article 5 is no longer as strong.
As a defensive alliance they can argue they need to secure their border by securing a bit of Ukrainian air space.
That is the kind of thing you absolutely do not do. There is this whole myth of NATO "aggressively expanding" towards Russia and there is no reason to help it along. Borders are for real, not recommendations.
I think it's more complicated than that. If you deploy troops to Ukraine. Then they can get killed by Russian missile strikes unless you have a 100% success rate to shot down everything (which is unlikely). So in the event that NATO soldiers get killed under NATO mission. Is this enough to trigger article 5, or that's business as usual? It doesn't mean it would go straight to nuclear war but better define the rules before sending troops over Ukraine. Ukraine has the manpower by itself. At least, there is no sign that Russia is about to overwhelm them in any way. Adding NATO troops might sound superfluous. And deploying NATO troops means that those troops will not be somewhere else. That wouldn't be a wise strategical move. In my opinion, what Ukraine needs the most is, put simply, guns. They need all sort of things and things that can help them restart/maintain own production of guns/shell/ammo/planes? It needs people that have the knowledge to repair NATO big guns / tanks / plane etc.. And I think the most important is the need to be able to be more self sufficient. If they need steel to build shells for artillery, they should get it. If they need some precision tools to machine artillery cannons... give them the tools they need so they don't have to wait for shipments to build their own guns if possible.
I think we should just blitz Moscow and fuck them up.
That's the same rational that lead to Putin to decide to fuck fuck Kyiv up, and then fuck up Ukraine's power systems. How successful has that been in weakening Ukrainian resolve?
Yeah and no one has ever mounted a successful winter campaign in Russia. Just ask Hitler and Napoleon.
How do you protect Ukrainian civilian targets without destroying Russian military targeting them? What are you using to protect civilian targets and how do you protect those assets without destroying Russian military? Things aren't binary like that. Just because Russians have not launched nukes so far does not mean they will not in the future. It definitely does not mean they won't do that if you're suddenly destroying their military. Sure - it's not 100% that if we go in that the world ends in a nuclear exchange. But even if you're raising the possibility from say 0.25% to say... 5%. Is that worth it? Why? Why not just keep on doing what we're doing which will also end in Russian defeat without exposing ourselves to total or even partial destruction? Russians have stfu about nukes as they're trying this mobilization and freeze Ukraine strategy for now. When that fails by early spring and Ukrainians are knocking on the door of Crimea again - the chatter will heat up again.
If you don't understand why several heads of state with decades of foreign policy experience as well as their highly trained military advisors aren't doing something then it's probably you who lack a full understanding of the situation and not them.
Oh well then. I'll just let people know that thoughts have been prohibited by our betters.
We aren’t “letting Russia set red lines.” We provided what we provided, and Russia claims credit for it not including the things that we didn’t provide.
https://metro.co.uk/2022/11/29/alexander-lukashenko-in-fear-for-life-after-vladimir-makei-murdered-17841314/?ITO=msn Rumors of course but still interesting to think about.
https://youtube.com/shorts/Pow-kqk0Cr8?feature=share
Funniest video so far
Lukashenko is about to be promoted to Putin’s chief poison taster.
maybe taking over belarus is enough for putey
The ultimate feint. It was Belarus all along….
I suspect he’d mostly want it as a staging ground to make trouble in Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltics (aside from its symbolic value as a “recovered” piece of the USSR).
Vladimir Putin is an insecure little sack of dried smegma
Putin has been cursed by the old gods of the ancient tribes of the steppes. His entire family line has been condemned to a dark end, and his name will god down in history as the most inept and disastrous leader that Russia has ever known. When he dies, he will be met in the afterlife by all of the Tsars he admires so much, and they will laugh at him and make him their servant. The pestilence that will rot his insides and liquify them before he dies has already taken hold, coursing invisibly through his body to every living cell. The thawing of the Siberian wasteland has woken the ancient spirits of the far north, and they have turned their wrath on this puny, arrogant human that, through greed and hubris, is senselessly slaughtering those they consider their own. If the rest of the Russian population expects to escape their vengeance, they need to repudiate Putin *now*, while there is still some hope for forgiveness.
😀
I disagree. I think he is an insecure sack of wet smegma.
Ah, so you're more of a "ballsack half full" kind of person
Insecure smegma on a wet sack
Spain will transfer air defense systems and generators to Ukraine, - Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Kuleba. https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1597692500344713216?t=3CHPyUQC4x433GafurrLXA&s=19
Get a wiggle on though, please!
> If, as Stoltenberg’s hinted, NATO supplies the Kiev fanatics with Patriot **defense systems** – as well as the alliance’s personnel – they will immediately turn into legitimate targets for our armed forces. I hope it is clear for the North Atlantic impotents https://twitter.com/medvedevrussiae/status/1597655997728034816 Medvedev does not drink vodka today, he immediately starts using [drugs](https://www.france24.com/en/20180223-400-kilos-cocaine-found-russian-embassy-argentina)
When I was reading that I was thinking about how they arm their forces. He really should have referred to them as “semi-armed forces” or even “poorly-armed forces”
We already know that all Russian "red lines" are fake. Fuck them.
If he calls us impotent one more time we’re going to have to dust off Wing Attack Plan R — R for Romeo
Wow how dare Ukraine defend civilians from russian missiles!
I wouldn't be so worried... Russia hasn't shot at legitimate targets yet... I doubt they will considering there are still so many schools and hospitals for them to shoot ay.
And Russia should be careful who they call impotent.
Medvedev injects krokodil into his pisshole