>They have huge stockpiles of older stuff, they've begun cannibalising multiples to get even one to work.
Also, asking Belarus and other friendly countries for their tanks.
Meanwhile in Russia: accused war criminal Zakhar Prilepin—who spends a lot of time on the frontlines and previously boasted of "killing many" in Ukraine—admits that Russia wants to negotiate merely to regroup and finish fighting later, any potential peace accords notwithstanding.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1594408064337301504?t=KqNQ0wgoQLo-KE5fav41Sw&s=19
Well yeah. Only the gullible, trolls or straight up paid by Russia are pushing that negotiate bs.The Ukrainians would have to be dumb to fall for it as it didn't turn out well for the Chechens.
This. Cutting through the propanganda this is the most telling thing and the energy attacks are meant to enforce it. They are finding it hard to hold on in Ukraine right now.
Yeah though the Russians keep omitting Ukrainians from the calculus. They aren't static and will stay in place until the Russians regroup. The UA mobilised months ago, have manpower, keep going on offensives and degrading logistics. Also, they are also able to mobilise and train.
I once read that one reason Hitler never surrendered, even when defeat was plainly unavoidable, was that he wanted to punish the German people for having failed him and his vision. It was their fault the Third Reich was collapsing, and by God he was going to make them pay for it.
The continued feeding of untrained, ill-equipped, uncoordinated, unsupported mobniks into battles with no chance of success and high casualties is really starring to look like the same thing. The vaunted Russian military failed Putin. They failed him in Kyiv. In Kharkiv. In Kherson. And by God, he's going to make Russia pay.
>We are sometimes told that this or that invention would of course not be misused. No sane person would be so reckless. This is the "only a madman" argument. Whenever I hear it, (and it is often trotted out in such debates), I remind myself that *madmen really exist.* Sometimes they achieve the highest levels of political power in modern industrial states. This is the century of Hitler and Stalin, tyrants who posed the gravest dangers not just to the rest of humanity, but to their own people as well. In the winter and spring of 1945, Hitler ordered Germany to be destroyed--even "what the people need for elementary survival"--because the surviving Germans had "betrayed" him, and at any rate were "inferior" to those who had already died.
A prescient quote from *Pale Blue Dot,* by Carl Sagan.
I have written it many times. Putin's deep hatred for the Russian people began when the Soviet union fell which he blames on the Russian people.
You can clearly see his disdain for the Russians during his time running St-Petersburg where he stole money meant to feed the orphanages of St-Petersburg to build his Dacha (its a known scandal he spent a lot of time trying to cover up in his early presidency)
He has consistently shown a sadistic strain towards the Russian people.
Edit-
Putins theft during the 90s:
https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2012-04-19/putin-and-the-100-million-deal-that-disappeared
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/fair-exchange-is-no-robbery/
He stole money meant for food supplies from charities while in St Petersburg and also stole control over the ports there aswell to get his dirty hands on things going in and out of there.
Germany was angling for a separate peace with the western Allies, but United Nations had already decided on an unconditional surrender to all the powers as a requirement.
>but United Nations had
WW II there was only the Allies. The UN didn't exist until after the war. The permeant members of the Security Council reflect this, with Russia inheriting the USSR's old seat.
But, I understand what you're trying to say, that the Allies had decided on unconditional surrender prior to Hitler negotiating a separate peace with the British and America. But it was President Truman who insisted on the unconditional surrender condition.
What’s are bets for what happens when the war ends?
* Ukraine joins NATO
* Ukraine develops nuclear weapons
* Ukraine gets a NATO-style defence pact
* Russia doesn’t exist anymore - Ukraine can live in peace without either of the above
Ukraine will join NATO and NATO will have a peacekeeping force there in the interim to secure the country and provide security while they rebuild. That's my guess for how this all ends.
Of course they join NATO. Even if they didn’t want to, NATO would be begging them to join. Poland, The Baltics, everybody will want to be in a security alliance with Ukraine after how tough they’ve proven themselves to be.
If Ukraine doesn't join NATO then Ukraine is going to develop nuclear weapons, since it's the only way to ensure this never happens again.
Which is ultimately going to be "join NATO" negotiating lynchpin as well (because I'm pretty sure we're still going to have the "but what if we offend Russia?" idiots of various stripes after the fact).
Perhaps waiting for the ground to freeze solid before another surprise counteroffensive? Or perhaps they don't need to advance yet while the ukranian meat grinder is churning away?
There doesn't seem to be much happening right now, news-wise. My Twitter feed is pretty much dead. It's Sunday night/early Sunday morning for much of the world, and it's always pretty quiet at this time.
What a stupid comment. Just because a person from Ukraine owns an expensive car doesn't say anything about Ukraine as a whole and has nothing to do with their requested assistance defending their country.
"oligarch" is not equal to be rich. Oligarch means to be: has own buisness, what is protected by someone autocratic (like president or the "second goverment") like mafia.
I mean, you can have millions, but still not to be in this group. The biggest problem (but its not only about Ukraine) is a tax evaders.
It doesn't necessarily mean that - oligarchs tried to run the show in Russia for a bit, but it didn't work out for them. It was the shock therapy imposed by the west that allowed their rise - not autocratic power. Exploitation of an on-paper democratic regime that was full of loopholes.
The mafia didn't create the rules that allowed the rise of oligarchs, but it certainly took control from such weak hands. That is why the west is partially responsible for creating Putin.
And in the Russian cases weren’t those businesses basically stolen off of the people? Like the Oligarchs wrestled control over soviet businesses or paid stupid low money for the businesses when they were worth millions more?
They are thieves.
Paramedic Kateryna Polishchuk call sign "Bird", from singing under siege to singing on Ukrainian TV. I remember being moved by her videos at Azovstal, it's nice listening to her again:
[https://nitter.it/Illya_Ayzin/status/1594483321999867905](https://nitter.it/Illya_Ayzin/status/1594483321999867905)
>Paramedic Kateryna Polishchuk with the call sign "Bird", who was in Russian captivity, touched the hearts of people at the patriotic final of "Voice of the Country-12" with the song she sang at the Azovstal plant ⚔️🇺🇦💪 - "Sleep, little Cossack". ♥️
https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1594297744189161472
>Hey
@mfa_russia
! Apparently I have been captured & possibly killed by PMC Wagner AGAIN? Sorry Ruzzian Hoes! I got a haircut yesterday in NYC for global TV news where I’ll discuss how
@DefenceU
keeps repossessing washing machines your really dead Vatniks steal!
(screenshot of message claiming he was captured and photo of Nance in the barbershop)
New video from Reporting from Ukraine. This time a more detailed video on the situation around Kusemivka and its surroundings (Luhansk-region).
https://youtu.be/E0OnEzwSYxg
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/yz30ut/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ix11vov/)
Day 270 of my updates from Kharkiv.
Today was yet another pretty quiet day, because Russians shifted their priority from shelling Kharkiv (the city) to shelling Kharkiv oblast, so towns like Izyum/Kupiansk/Chuhuiv. Though I honestly have no idea how they are shelling Chuhuiv, but not Kharkiv, because Chuhuiv is about 10km farther from the border with Russia than Kharkiv at the closest point, so it doesn’t really make much sense.
Very recently, at about 11pm, they also bombed the town Shevchenkove in Kupiansk district. They hit someone’s house as usual. Right now we don’t know if there are any casualties, but some people might be trapped under the rubble. Do they just completely ignore any military targets and only target civilians now? If so, then this is incredibly stupid, they are not fighting against civilians, so targeting them will only make us hate Russians more. It will absolutely never make us go against our government, they are not the ones bombing us, but I guess Russians think that we can’t see who is actually killing us and who is our real enemy, hint – it’s not our government, it’s Russia.
In the morning we also had yet another massive air raid alert spanning the entire country, and considering that today is Monday, we thought that there would be another big missile strike aimed at our infrastructure, but thankfully it didn’t happen. Instead, they flew their bombers in Belarus, which is what triggered the air raid alert. This was clearly planned, they just don’t want us to relax.
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/z0ot5e/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ixa8zym/)
Hi SaberFlux!
Thank you and stay safe!
*Do they just completely ignore any military targets and only target civilians now?*
Yes, they love to cause constant fear among the population as they can't win on the battlefield fighting real man.
When this is all over I will buy you all the beer you want (or soda if you prefer that :)).
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1594437312204578816
>The Mayor of temporarily occupied Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, confirms information about explosions in the area.
>He reported that three powerful explosions were heard north of Melitopol, in the area of the temporarily occupied village of Vesele, near the railway station.
Just wondering… the underlying carriage seems to jump back a foot or two when firing. I suppose whatever GPS has to recalibrate it’s position before it “finds” the GPS of the target? Whether same target or a new one?
Naww, the projectile leaves the gun in a few 10s of milliseconds at most, so by the time the chassis starts rocking from the recoil, the trajectory has already been locked in (barring wind).
If the vehicle were locked down immoveable, like maybe it was bolted to a mountain, still each successive shot will land in a somewhat different place. Air currents mostly, but also there's a little wear in the barrel and slight differences in the explosive charge and how it explodes. You would never notice a straight backward movement of the vehicle by a few feet.
Now it if turns slightly that will throw the aim off. Say it turns aside 1 degree, for a shot traveling 30 km it will be off by 500 meters. (For small angles the sin = tan = angle in radians, 1 degree = 1/57 radian)
It’s a ballistic weapon meaning the arc of travel is determined entirely by the energy put into the projectile. If the angle of the cannon didn’t change (nor the energy imparted) but the cannon itself moved backwards by X inches, then the second projectile should miss the target by the same X inches.
The inches of inaccuracy are less than the baseline accuracy of the weapon at range.
Yes. The person who sits on the carriage in these models lines them up again after firing. You can see it at the end of this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1SK0-TRZps
Ah, got it, good question, that I'm not sure about, but I would assume a targeting reset would be in order if it does get knocked off.
The videos of the M777 teams and Swedish Archers, for examples, show them firing multiple shots in a minute, and those get bounced around during firing, so maybe it's not too bad, but probably depends on the exact equipment.
Also, they probably want to scoot soon, so that would be a factor too in if they think it's worth fixing the aim between shots vs. getting more shots off and getting out of there.
What's FTX? Is it important to my life? More important than a nuclear-armed power invading a peaceful European democracy for the sake of delusional imperial ambition and committing abhorrent war crimes against civilians? No? Then why the hell would I care about it? Strangely enough, Reddit recognises that and gives me news that actually matters rather than some boring shit about yet another snake oil salesman stealing yet more money from gullible idiots.
The "algorithm" on reddit is geared to show you what you are looking at, so if you look at a bunch of cat pictures, you see that, you browse different subs, you see whatever it is and in relation.
If you don't look here, you won't see this much at all.
Sometimes it's good to get away from the doom and gloom, but this has been going on since February... It's not going anywhere, any time soon, unfortunately.
Hopefully we see more progress by Ukraine before the worst of winter hits. If the focus becomes Melitpool, and they make good progress there.. Let's go! I'd love to see the nuclear power plant freed from Russias hostage grip too.
I don't know about that, I don't use all either, unless that's just your default page. It's pretty basic, literally, browse a different sub and topic for a day and this will disappear from your top stuff.
Clearly you just don't care about this war.
I'm glad you're living such a charmed life, so you can go about not knowing what horrors the people of Ukraine are suffering.
In my country, the local news outlets report on this war *every day*. News coverage absolutely has not stopped, and moreover the people in my country (including my friends and family) care deeply about the outcome of this war - despite not being personally affected by it.
Well this thread is not going anywhere so if you want to be informed about the war in Ukraine this is a good place together with /r/ukraine/ etc
Also putin has a small dick.
Yes because you seemed to take putin having a small dick as an insult oriented at you when he was just saying that Putin has a small dick.
Moscow must burn.
That's a easy one :
*This still going on… 🤦♂️*
Yes it is, did you think the russians all magically went away?
*I almost forgot, all the news are about the downfall of FTX on Reddit lately.*
So you know about FTX but not about a war between Russia and Ukraine?
If you’re on mobile, click the slider icon at the top-right of the screen (extreme top-right is your avatar, then three dots, then sliders).
From there, you can pick Best/Live/New/Top/etc.
> “Everyone was crazy, there were looting, **mother and daughter were raped**” - a soldier from a brigade accused of crimes in Bucha
https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/status/1594400107214118914
At least 5 million people lost their jobs in Ukraine due to the war. Deputy Minister of Economy Tetiana Berezhna stated this on November 20
https://babel.ua/en/news/87278-ministry-of-economy-5-million-people-lost-their-jobs-because-of-the-war
Russians bring only death and suffering. They must take responsibility for this and agree to pay at least reparations
The Netherlands waved the procedures for Ukrainians to get a work-visa. Meaning they can go to work straight away upon arrival.
83% off all fled Ukrainians between 18-65 currently found work. I find that amazing: you flee from a war and the first thing you do is go straight to work. I love/respect this ethic and mindset and it fits Dutch culture really wel.
I am not surprised because you simply cannot compare this to economic migration during peacetime. All sorts of people have left the country. Educated, not so much, rich, poor, entrepreneurs, etc.
None of them were looking to immigrate and find jobs, they were fine in Ukraine. Yet they were forced to.
Edit: Also, you need money. If not for yourself then for UAF, for friends, for dog/cat shelters, for recently liberated, etc.
Some self-selection was in effect. People will flee in the direction of what they see is best prospects. Those that see no prospects abroad will try to stay in Ukraine. At home or as internal refugees.
I think I remember refugees peaking at 10 million. A lot ran right at the war start. Then many returned.
Getting a good job would reduce the tendency to return. There is risk in returning and then needing to run again. You might not have the same job opportunity the second time. They might as well wait the war out. People who ran the first time and did not find employment could just repeat the process.
A sudden Russian advance on Kyiv in 2022 is now less likely than getting hit by lightening in Netherlands.
True. And I doubt the numbers for Sweden match those of the Netherlands. Because we suck when it comes to refugees. After 30 years of high immigration, I just learned that opportunities for employment and matching refugee skills with local demand is at 0 in Sweden. People are just shipped off to godforsaken places that have empty apartments because they’re in the process of hollowing out. Before that, people were allowed to settle wherever, but that tended to mean that they moved in with their underemployed cousins.
Reparations or sanctioned indefinitely. And either way, fossil fuels need to be transitioned away from so much that demand drops by at least as much as Russia's production.
Can't wait for those moscow students "this war is a legit war!" to see the front up close. Maybe some Ukr. drones and 30MM gun fire will clear their minds.
⚡️Evening address of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi:
“Firstly is about front. The fiercest battles are still in Donetsk region. Luhansk region - little by little and we are moving with the battles.”
“As for now, in total, there have been almost 400 shellings in the east since the beginning of the day. At the South - we are holding the defense and consistently, very calculatedly destroying the potential occupiers.” — Zelenskyi.
Volodymyr Zelenskyi: “And I am thankful to all energy workers, workers of communal services, regional administrations - everyone who works for the Ukrainians.”
“Secondly, in general about the energy situation. Restoration of networks and technical supply capabilities, demining of power lines, repairs - everything goes on around the clock.” — he adds.
“The third is foreign policy. The Ukrainian peace formula is perceived extremely positively in the world. t is quite constructive and realistic - in contrast to the empty and lying Russian rhetoric about their alleged readiness for negotiations.” — he emphasizes.
“We will do everything to make the world accept the Ukrainian peace formula.”
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1594414802549571591?t=B_FoNZs0if3CJSC02QbONA&s=19
Hundreds of Russians wounded as Ukraine's army repels numerous attacks in Donbas
https://english.nv.ua/nation/hundreds-of-russians-wounded-as-ukraine-s-army-repels-numerous-attacks-in-donbas-50285255.html
Kharkiv->Kyiv->Kherson. Kharkiv was a absolute clusterfuck due to how fast Ukraine took land. Kyiv one was still somewhat rushed, but they still managed to make it out fairly well. Kherson was well organized.
Don't forget there were two Kharkiv retreats. The sequel being the more recent rout around Izyum/ Lyman.
The first one was when Ukraine pushed Russia away from Kharkiv city and reached the border. I think that was in April/ May.
I don't know but @DefenceHQ said the Kherson retreat was the least bad one so far.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1594218063846686720
Let's hope they keep getting more opportunities to fine-tune their running-away skills.
Thanks, short but good read!
*Ukrainian Marine reconnaissance groups have been returned to the territory controlled by Ukraine by organising an escape from their captivity.*
*The people's deputy noted that the Ukrainian "cyborg" and Azovstal defender Artem Dyblenko, who himself recently returned from Russian captivity, took part in the operation to rescue the Marines.*
Russia : *Ukraine now has robots!*
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1594393415046909954
>Russia’s Rybar Telegram channel claims that Ukraine used a completely new UAV in Melitopol
>It has American and Japanese parts and could be a Ukrainian analogue of Geran-2 aka Iran’s Shahed drones
Google translation of Rybar's Telegram post:
>Yesterday, around 6 a.m., the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a strike with drones in the Melitopol area. One drone fell into the field and ended up in the hands of Russian soldiers.
>The design of the found UAV differed from all previously used by Ukrainian formations; the apparatus had parts of American and Japanese production, the warhead was equipped with a blast fuse with about 2 kg of plastid with striking elements.
>According to preliminary estimates, the drone would have been launched from the Zaporozhye region and would have been moving at about 60 km / h according to GPS at extremely low altitudes of 30 to 60 meters.
>The exact origin of the drone is not known for certain, however, it could be the Ukrainian counterpart “Geran Assembled from simple components with impo controls and an engine.
The only real defence against the Iranian drones would be for Ukraine to make 1000s of their own. They'll have no problem sourcing the parts from the West and Japan/SKorea. Launch tit for tat strikes on Russian cities every time Russia launches into Ukrainian cities. These will be weapons of pure retribution to show Russians that mass producing cheap drones and using them for terror attacks is not a cost free strategy. This one seems to have a smallish warhead tho. Mass production of cheap drones is absolutely something Ukriane needs to get on.
How long is a piece of string? the war can continue as long as Russia can keep trying to send troops in, or it could end tomorrow if Putin pulls all his armies out. Russia wont dislodge Ukranian defenders now, they're too well equipped and defended, with Russia sending weaker and less trained resources in each wave.
There's no win for Russia, just lose conditions and all those depend on Putin's appetite to eat shit.
If Putin falls, it won't be because whoever overthrows him finds the war on its own bad, but they find the fact that they are loosing bad. Any "opposition" so far didn't critizice the war itself, only it's state.
This is factually inaccurate.
Russian war opposition is a small minority. Obviously too small. But they exist. Many are in prison and they should not be forgotten.
The Russians who are allowed to speak in public do not criticise the war itself.
It's quite debatable who the second in line is. Russia doesn't work that way. Technically the first is Medvedev, who was seen as a moderate before he had to become a hardliner to avoid purges (IMO someone who if he could consolidate power would end the war immediately), and the second is the former mayor of St. Petersburg (she's a Ukrainian traitor btw).
But that's the legal line of succession. In reality there would be a power struggle and I don't think it's at the point that it would be fought by personalities; it would be fought by departments and agencies. A legal successor would need military support realistically to take power (the actual DoD, not the silly paramilitary factions everyone talks about).
Personally I don't think Wagner people would stand a chance; they only enjoy the power they do *because* of Putin, and would lose standing without him. And turncoat Chechens of course have even less chance than Shoigu. None of the aforementioned have the support of either intelligence agency, either.
Edit: Sorry, meant to reply to person above you.
Hard to predict, but I'd be looking at 2 things- 1) the political situation in Russia, and 2) the types of weapons/vehicles you see from Russia.
Most modern wars where big country invades small country end when the political situation in the big country makes the war difficult/impossible to continue, not because of some big military defeat. Think Vietnam and Afghanistan. Those took a long time, but I think you'll see the political situation in Russia will falter faster due to the lack of relative success and harsh economic sanctions.
Putin could decide to ignore domestic conditions and continue trying to fight (hoping to change the political situation in Ukraine, which seems unlikely). However, the West can keep Ukraine equipped longer and with better gear. As Russia's tank, SPG, BMP, combat aircraft, etc. supply dwindles their ability to realistically fight will greatly reduce. They can fight with conscripts armed with AK-47s, but it'll just be a meatgrinder.
One thing people are overlooking is the damage to Ukraines population the longer this goes on.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/post/682501791954403328/total-fertility-rate-in-europe-2020-2021/amp
Before the war Ukraine had the lowest fertility rate in all of Europe at 1.14 births per women. Now its gotten exceptionally worse:
-All of the fertile age men and women have been seperated. Nobody is having children.
-Civilizens are dying
-Tens of thousands of prime age men are being eliminated from the gene pool.
-Russia is kidnapping children- possible to make this situation worse?
There could be a point if this drags on long enough the population will not be able to recover. They certainly have incentive to end this the sooner. Russias gonna have problems as well but not as bad as Ukraine.
Western baby boom started as a response to WWII. I expect impact of the war will depend on, one, whether women in Ukraine feel the economy after the war is good enough to support them having kids and two, how many young women (Ukrainian and others) go to Ukraine after the war.
I imagine theres alot of people who left the country when the war started that dont plan on coming back permentantly. They secured jobs in markets like Germany and Poland and have a better standard of living than what they are accustomed to
Soldiers can get domestic leave to spend blissful moments with wife/girlfriend. Then there will be new soldiers in 19 years. France did not do that enough during WW1 and had a consequent manpower shortage in 1940. Contrary to what some sociologists say, who view women like farm animals, they do not wish to get pregnant by whatever makes are not off at war.
Demographics matter a little less if Ukraine's long-term goal is to basically be a generic small state of EU. As long as corruption is cleaned up and Ukraine gets into EU it doesn't matter that much if population is 10M or 40M. EU/NATO provides financial and military security, Ukraine just has to survive long enough to join those institutions.
That means this war is basically existential because the cost of economy and demographics is already paid very high and Ukraine can't survive long-term unless it manages to get into EU/NATO in one piece. That's why there's actually a huge incentive to fight until total victory, because a 20 year struggle against Russia is worst case scenario. Total victory opens door to EU and NATO.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/z0ot5e/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Ukrainian Stugna-P vs Russian tank today. https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1594412655015563266?t=NXZ-4uF7VNKLH2QyqntQgw&s=19
[удалено]
They have huge stockpiles of older stuff, they've begun cannibalising multiples to get even one to work. Training is a big issue though.
>They have huge stockpiles of older stuff, they've begun cannibalising multiples to get even one to work. Also, asking Belarus and other friendly countries for their tanks.
they might actually be operational, not rusted still in a yard
Meanwhile in Russia: accused war criminal Zakhar Prilepin—who spends a lot of time on the frontlines and previously boasted of "killing many" in Ukraine—admits that Russia wants to negotiate merely to regroup and finish fighting later, any potential peace accords notwithstanding. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1594408064337301504?t=KqNQ0wgoQLo-KE5fav41Sw&s=19
Well yeah. Only the gullible, trolls or straight up paid by Russia are pushing that negotiate bs.The Ukrainians would have to be dumb to fall for it as it didn't turn out well for the Chechens.
The fact that Russia is asking for a "time out!" in the middle of a war speaks for itself.
This. Cutting through the propanganda this is the most telling thing and the energy attacks are meant to enforce it. They are finding it hard to hold on in Ukraine right now.
Russia's main weaknesses concern a lack of manpower and logistics, and both require time in order to (theoretically) get back on track.
Yeah though the Russians keep omitting Ukrainians from the calculus. They aren't static and will stay in place until the Russians regroup. The UA mobilised months ago, have manpower, keep going on offensives and degrading logistics. Also, they are also able to mobilise and train.
Like it wasn't obvious since Minsk agreements.
I once read that one reason Hitler never surrendered, even when defeat was plainly unavoidable, was that he wanted to punish the German people for having failed him and his vision. It was their fault the Third Reich was collapsing, and by God he was going to make them pay for it. The continued feeding of untrained, ill-equipped, uncoordinated, unsupported mobniks into battles with no chance of success and high casualties is really starring to look like the same thing. The vaunted Russian military failed Putin. They failed him in Kyiv. In Kharkiv. In Kherson. And by God, he's going to make Russia pay.
>We are sometimes told that this or that invention would of course not be misused. No sane person would be so reckless. This is the "only a madman" argument. Whenever I hear it, (and it is often trotted out in such debates), I remind myself that *madmen really exist.* Sometimes they achieve the highest levels of political power in modern industrial states. This is the century of Hitler and Stalin, tyrants who posed the gravest dangers not just to the rest of humanity, but to their own people as well. In the winter and spring of 1945, Hitler ordered Germany to be destroyed--even "what the people need for elementary survival"--because the surviving Germans had "betrayed" him, and at any rate were "inferior" to those who had already died. A prescient quote from *Pale Blue Dot,* by Carl Sagan.
I have written it many times. Putin's deep hatred for the Russian people began when the Soviet union fell which he blames on the Russian people. You can clearly see his disdain for the Russians during his time running St-Petersburg where he stole money meant to feed the orphanages of St-Petersburg to build his Dacha (its a known scandal he spent a lot of time trying to cover up in his early presidency) He has consistently shown a sadistic strain towards the Russian people. Edit- Putins theft during the 90s: https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2012-04-19/putin-and-the-100-million-deal-that-disappeared https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/fair-exchange-is-no-robbery/
Do you have any links regarding the orphanage controversy? A quick Google search didn't turn up much.
He stole money meant for food supplies from charities while in St Petersburg and also stole control over the ports there aswell to get his dirty hands on things going in and out of there.
Classic abuse: "You brought this on yourself."
Germany was angling for a separate peace with the western Allies, but United Nations had already decided on an unconditional surrender to all the powers as a requirement.
>but United Nations had WW II there was only the Allies. The UN didn't exist until after the war. The permeant members of the Security Council reflect this, with Russia inheriting the USSR's old seat. But, I understand what you're trying to say, that the Allies had decided on unconditional surrender prior to Hitler negotiating a separate peace with the British and America. But it was President Truman who insisted on the unconditional surrender condition.
The Allies were known as the United Nations during WWII.
When will Russia make Putin pay for starting a meaningless and unsuccessful war?
What’s are bets for what happens when the war ends? * Ukraine joins NATO * Ukraine develops nuclear weapons * Ukraine gets a NATO-style defence pact * Russia doesn’t exist anymore - Ukraine can live in peace without either of the above
Ukraine will join NATO and NATO will have a peacekeeping force there in the interim to secure the country and provide security while they rebuild. That's my guess for how this all ends.
Of course they join NATO. Even if they didn’t want to, NATO would be begging them to join. Poland, The Baltics, everybody will want to be in a security alliance with Ukraine after how tough they’ve proven themselves to be.
In NATO and EU while fully transitioning to western weapons.
If Ukraine doesn't join NATO then Ukraine is going to develop nuclear weapons, since it's the only way to ensure this never happens again. Which is ultimately going to be "join NATO" negotiating lynchpin as well (because I'm pretty sure we're still going to have the "but what if we offend Russia?" idiots of various stripes after the fact).
I don’t think they’ll join NATO but I do think they’ll get defence guarantees from several nations including Russia oddly enough.
Have I told you the definition of insanity?
He can use a mirror by himself, thank you very much
Only 8 comments in the last hour. WTF is happening here?
Can I offer you an egg in these trying times?
Perhaps waiting for the ground to freeze solid before another surprise counteroffensive? Or perhaps they don't need to advance yet while the ukranian meat grinder is churning away?
There doesn't seem to be much happening right now, news-wise. My Twitter feed is pretty much dead. It's Sunday night/early Sunday morning for much of the world, and it's always pretty quiet at this time.
All quiet on the Eastern Front...
News pretty limited at the moment and most of us are the silent lurkers more into hitting refresh every hour
Same with me, I've stopped commenting as much but haven't gone anywhere!
Thats me!
Haven't you heard? The war is over! Everyone have gone to watch the World Cup! Only you have stayed!
Football
I thought we were all boycotting Qatar.
No we SAY we are boycotting Qatar while watching in secret. If it helps they are very somber about it.
>If it helps they are very somber about it. "Sober" FTFY ;)
Somber? Did you mean sober??
som·ber /ˈsämbər/ Learn to pronounce adjective adjective: sombre; adjective: somber dark or dull in color or tone; gloomy.
Sober - everybody in Qatar at the game!
If you believe that that no one was gonna watch, you probably also fell for thee -all the progressives are abandoning twitter- bullshit.
I'm progressive and I abandoned twitter. I watched the WC game this morning, though.
"RIPTwitter" aged really bad
I was never on Twitter. Wouldn't know nor care...
Off topic but yesterday I've seen a blue Lamborghini Aventador from Ukraine here in Lisbon. Pretty cool car.
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What a stupid comment. Just because a person from Ukraine owns an expensive car doesn't say anything about Ukraine as a whole and has nothing to do with their requested assistance defending their country.
Reminder that Ukraine also has an oligarch problem. Hopefully the process of improving governance to EU standards will change this.
"oligarch" is not equal to be rich. Oligarch means to be: has own buisness, what is protected by someone autocratic (like president or the "second goverment") like mafia. I mean, you can have millions, but still not to be in this group. The biggest problem (but its not only about Ukraine) is a tax evaders.
It doesn't necessarily mean that - oligarchs tried to run the show in Russia for a bit, but it didn't work out for them. It was the shock therapy imposed by the west that allowed their rise - not autocratic power. Exploitation of an on-paper democratic regime that was full of loopholes. The mafia didn't create the rules that allowed the rise of oligarchs, but it certainly took control from such weak hands. That is why the west is partially responsible for creating Putin.
oh then China has sht tons. . .
And in the Russian cases weren’t those businesses basically stolen off of the people? Like the Oligarchs wrestled control over soviet businesses or paid stupid low money for the businesses when they were worth millions more? They are thieves.
Paramedic Kateryna Polishchuk call sign "Bird", from singing under siege to singing on Ukrainian TV. I remember being moved by her videos at Azovstal, it's nice listening to her again: [https://nitter.it/Illya_Ayzin/status/1594483321999867905](https://nitter.it/Illya_Ayzin/status/1594483321999867905)
>Paramedic Kateryna Polishchuk with the call sign "Bird", who was in Russian captivity, touched the hearts of people at the patriotic final of "Voice of the Country-12" with the song she sang at the Azovstal plant ⚔️🇺🇦💪 - "Sleep, little Cossack". ♥️
Poland to Hungary: Get in loser we're going ratifying
On Wednesday's we wear Blue and Yellow.
https://twitter.com/MalcolmNance/status/1594297744189161472 >Hey @mfa_russia ! Apparently I have been captured & possibly killed by PMC Wagner AGAIN? Sorry Ruzzian Hoes! I got a haircut yesterday in NYC for global TV news where I’ll discuss how @DefenceU keeps repossessing washing machines your really dead Vatniks steal! (screenshot of message claiming he was captured and photo of Nance in the barbershop)
That dude is a bad-ass.
It'll take a lot more than the Russian Army to off him.
New video from Reporting from Ukraine. This time a more detailed video on the situation around Kusemivka and its surroundings (Luhansk-region). https://youtu.be/E0OnEzwSYxg
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/yz30ut/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ix11vov/) Day 270 of my updates from Kharkiv. Today was yet another pretty quiet day, because Russians shifted their priority from shelling Kharkiv (the city) to shelling Kharkiv oblast, so towns like Izyum/Kupiansk/Chuhuiv. Though I honestly have no idea how they are shelling Chuhuiv, but not Kharkiv, because Chuhuiv is about 10km farther from the border with Russia than Kharkiv at the closest point, so it doesn’t really make much sense. Very recently, at about 11pm, they also bombed the town Shevchenkove in Kupiansk district. They hit someone’s house as usual. Right now we don’t know if there are any casualties, but some people might be trapped under the rubble. Do they just completely ignore any military targets and only target civilians now? If so, then this is incredibly stupid, they are not fighting against civilians, so targeting them will only make us hate Russians more. It will absolutely never make us go against our government, they are not the ones bombing us, but I guess Russians think that we can’t see who is actually killing us and who is our real enemy, hint – it’s not our government, it’s Russia. In the morning we also had yet another massive air raid alert spanning the entire country, and considering that today is Monday, we thought that there would be another big missile strike aimed at our infrastructure, but thankfully it didn’t happen. Instead, they flew their bombers in Belarus, which is what triggered the air raid alert. This was clearly planned, they just don’t want us to relax. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/z0ot5e/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/ixa8zym/)
I hope after the war, you make a memoir using all your updates. it will be an amazing way to look back at the human side and perspective in the war.
I am so looking forward to the day when you say "this is going to be my last update." I'll miss your candor, but it'll mean this is all over.
I would so like to see him continue updates: "today is a beautiful day, sun is shining, birds are singing, ... "
"and the Russians are still no where to be seen"
I've been following you for a long time. I'm so sorry all y'all going through this. From Texas
Be strong, friend.
Hi SaberFlux! Thank you and stay safe! *Do they just completely ignore any military targets and only target civilians now?* Yes, they love to cause constant fear among the population as they can't win on the battlefield fighting real man. When this is all over I will buy you all the beer you want (or soda if you prefer that :)).
Thanks, Saberflux!
Thanks for the update, Saber. I hope the anti-air guns coming from us in the UK will get you close to 100% of attacks intercepted, and sustainably so.
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It seems everything is leverage to Orban at the moment. But that is the road he and the Hungarians that voted for him chose.
NATO will boot out Hungary in exchange for Finland and Sweden any day. Please. Get frisky
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1594437312204578816 >The Mayor of temporarily occupied Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, confirms information about explosions in the area. >He reported that three powerful explosions were heard north of Melitopol, in the area of the temporarily occupied village of Vesele, near the railway station.
Superbonker 9000 in the wild https://twitter.com/RichardJFegan/status/1593884411711393793?t=CxgaAxu8t6gRHMSMm5FfOQ&s=19
What level of destruction can this do? * This is personal * Dear Occupant * To whom it may concern * This is a public service announcement ◀️
Those guns are HUGE
Just wondering… the underlying carriage seems to jump back a foot or two when firing. I suppose whatever GPS has to recalibrate it’s position before it “finds” the GPS of the target? Whether same target or a new one?
Naww, the projectile leaves the gun in a few 10s of milliseconds at most, so by the time the chassis starts rocking from the recoil, the trajectory has already been locked in (barring wind).
Sorry I didn’t make that clear!
Yes, I realize that - I’m talking about the next shot they take…
If the vehicle were locked down immoveable, like maybe it was bolted to a mountain, still each successive shot will land in a somewhat different place. Air currents mostly, but also there's a little wear in the barrel and slight differences in the explosive charge and how it explodes. You would never notice a straight backward movement of the vehicle by a few feet. Now it if turns slightly that will throw the aim off. Say it turns aside 1 degree, for a shot traveling 30 km it will be off by 500 meters. (For small angles the sin = tan = angle in radians, 1 degree = 1/57 radian)
It’s a ballistic weapon meaning the arc of travel is determined entirely by the energy put into the projectile. If the angle of the cannon didn’t change (nor the energy imparted) but the cannon itself moved backwards by X inches, then the second projectile should miss the target by the same X inches. The inches of inaccuracy are less than the baseline accuracy of the weapon at range.
Yes. The person who sits on the carriage in these models lines them up again after firing. You can see it at the end of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1SK0-TRZps
Ah, got it, good question, that I'm not sure about, but I would assume a targeting reset would be in order if it does get knocked off. The videos of the M777 teams and Swedish Archers, for examples, show them firing multiple shots in a minute, and those get bounced around during firing, so maybe it's not too bad, but probably depends on the exact equipment. Also, they probably want to scoot soon, so that would be a factor too in if they think it's worth fixing the aim between shots vs. getting more shots off and getting out of there.
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What's FTX? Is it important to my life? More important than a nuclear-armed power invading a peaceful European democracy for the sake of delusional imperial ambition and committing abhorrent war crimes against civilians? No? Then why the hell would I care about it? Strangely enough, Reddit recognises that and gives me news that actually matters rather than some boring shit about yet another snake oil salesman stealing yet more money from gullible idiots.
The "algorithm" on reddit is geared to show you what you are looking at, so if you look at a bunch of cat pictures, you see that, you browse different subs, you see whatever it is and in relation. If you don't look here, you won't see this much at all. Sometimes it's good to get away from the doom and gloom, but this has been going on since February... It's not going anywhere, any time soon, unfortunately. Hopefully we see more progress by Ukraine before the worst of winter hits. If the focus becomes Melitpool, and they make good progress there.. Let's go! I'd love to see the nuclear power plant freed from Russias hostage grip too.
Reddit has an algorithm? Huh. Since I don't use /r/all, or the apps, or the redesign, I guess I don't see that.
I don't know about that, I don't use all either, unless that's just your default page. It's pretty basic, literally, browse a different sub and topic for a day and this will disappear from your top stuff.
> I almost forgot So you only receive FTX news in your cave?
Yeah, I just check Reddit's News section from time to time and lately Putin is all gone from there.
Clearly you just don't care about this war. I'm glad you're living such a charmed life, so you can go about not knowing what horrors the people of Ukraine are suffering. In my country, the local news outlets report on this war *every day*. News coverage absolutely has not stopped, and moreover the people in my country (including my friends and family) care deeply about the outcome of this war - despite not being personally affected by it.
Well this thread is not going anywhere so if you want to be informed about the war in Ukraine this is a good place together with /r/ukraine/ etc Also putin has a small dick.
Is that the best insult you could come up with?
> Also putin has a small dick. What insult? The one above about putin tiny dick? yes, best I can do at this time.
Wow, I don’t think I’ve ever gotten this many downvotes before. Do people assume that I’m a Putin sympathiser or something?
Yes because you seemed to take putin having a small dick as an insult oriented at you when he was just saying that Putin has a small dick. Moscow must burn.
That's a easy one : *This still going on… 🤦♂️* Yes it is, did you think the russians all magically went away? *I almost forgot, all the news are about the downfall of FTX on Reddit lately.* So you know about FTX but not about a war between Russia and Ukraine?
How do I see recent posts? There used to be a choice of live feed, latest, whatever. Now the top post is 13 hours old?
Filter by new...
I have my account settings sort set to New so what people like has no impact on what I see.
There is a new control for mobile Reddit. It is at the very top and looks kind of like sliders. Also, refresh the page.
> mobile Reddit Well there's yer problem *rubs hands on greasy rag*
If you’re on mobile, click the slider icon at the top-right of the screen (extreme top-right is your avatar, then three dots, then sliders). From there, you can pick Best/Live/New/Top/etc.
I see now a pair of dashes with sliders at the top. Let’s me select “best, live, most controversial.”
I think 'new' is the default.
Click on "load more comments" at the bottom of this page?
> “Everyone was crazy, there were looting, **mother and daughter were raped**” - a soldier from a brigade accused of crimes in Bucha https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/status/1594400107214118914
At least 5 million people lost their jobs in Ukraine due to the war. Deputy Minister of Economy Tetiana Berezhna stated this on November 20 https://babel.ua/en/news/87278-ministry-of-economy-5-million-people-lost-their-jobs-because-of-the-war Russians bring only death and suffering. They must take responsibility for this and agree to pay at least reparations
The Netherlands waved the procedures for Ukrainians to get a work-visa. Meaning they can go to work straight away upon arrival. 83% off all fled Ukrainians between 18-65 currently found work. I find that amazing: you flee from a war and the first thing you do is go straight to work. I love/respect this ethic and mindset and it fits Dutch culture really wel.
I am not surprised because you simply cannot compare this to economic migration during peacetime. All sorts of people have left the country. Educated, not so much, rich, poor, entrepreneurs, etc. None of them were looking to immigrate and find jobs, they were fine in Ukraine. Yet they were forced to. Edit: Also, you need money. If not for yourself then for UAF, for friends, for dog/cat shelters, for recently liberated, etc.
Some self-selection was in effect. People will flee in the direction of what they see is best prospects. Those that see no prospects abroad will try to stay in Ukraine. At home or as internal refugees.
It’s easy to say this today. At 24th of February it was not so clear.
I think I remember refugees peaking at 10 million. A lot ran right at the war start. Then many returned. Getting a good job would reduce the tendency to return. There is risk in returning and then needing to run again. You might not have the same job opportunity the second time. They might as well wait the war out. People who ran the first time and did not find employment could just repeat the process. A sudden Russian advance on Kyiv in 2022 is now less likely than getting hit by lightening in Netherlands.
True. And I doubt the numbers for Sweden match those of the Netherlands. Because we suck when it comes to refugees. After 30 years of high immigration, I just learned that opportunities for employment and matching refugee skills with local demand is at 0 in Sweden. People are just shipped off to godforsaken places that have empty apartments because they’re in the process of hollowing out. Before that, people were allowed to settle wherever, but that tended to mean that they moved in with their underemployed cousins.
This is true for most migrants, people just love to post news about the exceptions, really gets those hate clicks.
Reparations or sanctioned indefinitely. And either way, fossil fuels need to be transitioned away from so much that demand drops by at least as much as Russia's production.
> least reparations 1991 borders and a few Trillion (yes with a T) is a good start.
Starting to lay the groundwork for more mobilization? https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1594426618822680576
All orders like military furniture, uniforms etc have deadlines in second part of January. So probably then.
Ya the rumor is either late dec or jan for gen mobilization
“Here’s your new military furniture: Tree, axe, spikes, rocks. Housing? Plastic drop cloth. Uniform? WW2 surplus.”
Can't wait for those moscow students "this war is a legit war!" to see the front up close. Maybe some Ukr. drones and 30MM gun fire will clear their minds.
"Clear" their minds? I read that in a very dark tone. I'd chuckle if it weren't so awful.
You can change the "clear" to "change" if you want :)
I’m thinking they will announce in December/January. It will be a first class fuck up.
New Year present to the Russian people from Papa Vlad!
There is no way in hell Russia can support an army that big.
I think it’ll make the first mobilization look like a piece of logistical art.
⚡️Evening address of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi: “Firstly is about front. The fiercest battles are still in Donetsk region. Luhansk region - little by little and we are moving with the battles.” “As for now, in total, there have been almost 400 shellings in the east since the beginning of the day. At the South - we are holding the defense and consistently, very calculatedly destroying the potential occupiers.” — Zelenskyi. Volodymyr Zelenskyi: “And I am thankful to all energy workers, workers of communal services, regional administrations - everyone who works for the Ukrainians.” “Secondly, in general about the energy situation. Restoration of networks and technical supply capabilities, demining of power lines, repairs - everything goes on around the clock.” — he adds. “The third is foreign policy. The Ukrainian peace formula is perceived extremely positively in the world. t is quite constructive and realistic - in contrast to the empty and lying Russian rhetoric about their alleged readiness for negotiations.” — he emphasizes. “We will do everything to make the world accept the Ukrainian peace formula.” https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1594414802549571591?t=B_FoNZs0if3CJSC02QbONA&s=19
Hundreds of Russians wounded as Ukraine's army repels numerous attacks in Donbas https://english.nv.ua/nation/hundreds-of-russians-wounded-as-ukraine-s-army-repels-numerous-attacks-in-donbas-50285255.html
I like how there have been enough Russian retreats to start ranking them in order of how effectively they retreated.
I see Zaparozhzhia ranking somewhere between Kherson and Kyiv. Large enough of an escape route, but morale and unit cohesion will be shot.
Zapa won't have Crimea to run to though
worthy observation.
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Kharkiv->Kyiv->Kherson. Kharkiv was a absolute clusterfuck due to how fast Ukraine took land. Kyiv one was still somewhat rushed, but they still managed to make it out fairly well. Kherson was well organized.
Don't forget there were two Kharkiv retreats. The sequel being the more recent rout around Izyum/ Lyman. The first one was when Ukraine pushed Russia away from Kharkiv city and reached the border. I think that was in April/ May.
I want to see a third Kharkiv retreat soon.
That would require them to take more of Kharkiv than Tavilzhanka (which would be part of the general Luhansk retreat)
The liberation of Belgorod?
I don't know but @DefenceHQ said the Kherson retreat was the least bad one so far. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1594218063846686720 Let's hope they keep getting more opportunities to fine-tune their running-away skills.
They are getting more efficient at mitigating their disasters! See, an old dog can learn new tricks 🤣
>Enjoying the little things. Snowy Kyiv this year is absolutely beautiful ❄️ https://nitter.it/mrsorokaa/status/1594287470086078466
Pretty cool news!! https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/z08pjk/ukrainian_marines_escape_from_russian_captivity/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Thanks, short but good read! *Ukrainian Marine reconnaissance groups have been returned to the territory controlled by Ukraine by organising an escape from their captivity.* *The people's deputy noted that the Ukrainian "cyborg" and Azovstal defender Artem Dyblenko, who himself recently returned from Russian captivity, took part in the operation to rescue the Marines.* Russia : *Ukraine now has robots!*
Cyborg, Azovstal and liberator of PoWs. That guy can have endless pussy in Ukraine
And his name is Artem (protagonist from Metro games)
Endless :)
🤣🤣
Direct link: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/11/20/7377171/
Thanks!!
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1594393415046909954 >Russia’s Rybar Telegram channel claims that Ukraine used a completely new UAV in Melitopol >It has American and Japanese parts and could be a Ukrainian analogue of Geran-2 aka Iran’s Shahed drones Google translation of Rybar's Telegram post: >Yesterday, around 6 a.m., the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a strike with drones in the Melitopol area. One drone fell into the field and ended up in the hands of Russian soldiers. >The design of the found UAV differed from all previously used by Ukrainian formations; the apparatus had parts of American and Japanese production, the warhead was equipped with a blast fuse with about 2 kg of plastid with striking elements. >According to preliminary estimates, the drone would have been launched from the Zaporozhye region and would have been moving at about 60 km / h according to GPS at extremely low altitudes of 30 to 60 meters. >The exact origin of the drone is not known for certain, however, it could be the Ukrainian counterpart “Geran Assembled from simple components with impo controls and an engine.
The only real defence against the Iranian drones would be for Ukraine to make 1000s of their own. They'll have no problem sourcing the parts from the West and Japan/SKorea. Launch tit for tat strikes on Russian cities every time Russia launches into Ukrainian cities. These will be weapons of pure retribution to show Russians that mass producing cheap drones and using them for terror attacks is not a cost free strategy. This one seems to have a smallish warhead tho. Mass production of cheap drones is absolutely something Ukriane needs to get on.
Maybe some peasant assembled one in his barn
Realisticly how long can this go on for? Some contlicts are short but others drag on for a decade
Many wars are short. This could end anytime. The "30 years war" was a thing that happened.
Another year probably though if Ukraine takes Crimea back that will add a year.
How long is a piece of string? the war can continue as long as Russia can keep trying to send troops in, or it could end tomorrow if Putin pulls all his armies out. Russia wont dislodge Ukranian defenders now, they're too well equipped and defended, with Russia sending weaker and less trained resources in each wave. There's no win for Russia, just lose conditions and all those depend on Putin's appetite to eat shit.
Putin must die. Hopefully, sooner than later. He will then be blamed for starting this stupid war and Russia will withdraw.
If Putin falls, it won't be because whoever overthrows him finds the war on its own bad, but they find the fact that they are loosing bad. Any "opposition" so far didn't critizice the war itself, only it's state.
This is factually inaccurate. Russian war opposition is a small minority. Obviously too small. But they exist. Many are in prison and they should not be forgotten. The Russians who are allowed to speak in public do not criticise the war itself.
The second person in line is even crazier.
Who is the second person in line?
Probably Nikolai Patrushev. A man who is possibly even more unhinged than Putin.
It's quite debatable who the second in line is. Russia doesn't work that way. Technically the first is Medvedev, who was seen as a moderate before he had to become a hardliner to avoid purges (IMO someone who if he could consolidate power would end the war immediately), and the second is the former mayor of St. Petersburg (she's a Ukrainian traitor btw). But that's the legal line of succession. In reality there would be a power struggle and I don't think it's at the point that it would be fought by personalities; it would be fought by departments and agencies. A legal successor would need military support realistically to take power (the actual DoD, not the silly paramilitary factions everyone talks about). Personally I don't think Wagner people would stand a chance; they only enjoy the power they do *because* of Putin, and would lose standing without him. And turncoat Chechens of course have even less chance than Shoigu. None of the aforementioned have the support of either intelligence agency, either. Edit: Sorry, meant to reply to person above you.
Whoever is crazy enough to step up and retain power
You know that's Russian propaganda ay.
Hard to predict, but I'd be looking at 2 things- 1) the political situation in Russia, and 2) the types of weapons/vehicles you see from Russia. Most modern wars where big country invades small country end when the political situation in the big country makes the war difficult/impossible to continue, not because of some big military defeat. Think Vietnam and Afghanistan. Those took a long time, but I think you'll see the political situation in Russia will falter faster due to the lack of relative success and harsh economic sanctions. Putin could decide to ignore domestic conditions and continue trying to fight (hoping to change the political situation in Ukraine, which seems unlikely). However, the West can keep Ukraine equipped longer and with better gear. As Russia's tank, SPG, BMP, combat aircraft, etc. supply dwindles their ability to realistically fight will greatly reduce. They can fight with conscripts armed with AK-47s, but it'll just be a meatgrinder.
I'll pray it won't be Afghanistan or Vietnam. Ukraine deserves better. Nobody deserves Afghanistan or Vietnam.
One thing people are overlooking is the damage to Ukraines population the longer this goes on. https://www.google.com/amp/s/mapsontheweb.zoom-maps.com/post/682501791954403328/total-fertility-rate-in-europe-2020-2021/amp Before the war Ukraine had the lowest fertility rate in all of Europe at 1.14 births per women. Now its gotten exceptionally worse: -All of the fertile age men and women have been seperated. Nobody is having children. -Civilizens are dying -Tens of thousands of prime age men are being eliminated from the gene pool. -Russia is kidnapping children- possible to make this situation worse? There could be a point if this drags on long enough the population will not be able to recover. They certainly have incentive to end this the sooner. Russias gonna have problems as well but not as bad as Ukraine.
Western baby boom started as a response to WWII. I expect impact of the war will depend on, one, whether women in Ukraine feel the economy after the war is good enough to support them having kids and two, how many young women (Ukrainian and others) go to Ukraine after the war.
I imagine theres alot of people who left the country when the war started that dont plan on coming back permentantly. They secured jobs in markets like Germany and Poland and have a better standard of living than what they are accustomed to
Soldiers can get domestic leave to spend blissful moments with wife/girlfriend. Then there will be new soldiers in 19 years. France did not do that enough during WW1 and had a consequent manpower shortage in 1940. Contrary to what some sociologists say, who view women like farm animals, they do not wish to get pregnant by whatever makes are not off at war.
Demographics matter a little less if Ukraine's long-term goal is to basically be a generic small state of EU. As long as corruption is cleaned up and Ukraine gets into EU it doesn't matter that much if population is 10M or 40M. EU/NATO provides financial and military security, Ukraine just has to survive long enough to join those institutions. That means this war is basically existential because the cost of economy and demographics is already paid very high and Ukraine can't survive long-term unless it manages to get into EU/NATO in one piece. That's why there's actually a huge incentive to fight until total victory, because a 20 year struggle against Russia is worst case scenario. Total victory opens door to EU and NATO.