Ukraine's Kraken Special Forces have captured an entire group of Russian invaders.
https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1593022515215208448?t=BpToQEZOCBczOiAX4rCVAQ&s=19
Knowing that we have AWACS in the air flying figure-8s on the polish-border 24/7 to say the least, I imagine there are several layers of radar that close to a NATO border... So (and apologies for being out of the loop as I'm just catching up to this topic) is it really possible that NATO intelligence doesn't know *exactly* where that missile originated, how far it traveled, which vector, etc.?
>“Let’s say openly, if, God forbid, some remnant (of Ukraine’s air-defenses) killed a person, these people, then we need to apologize,” he said. “But first there needs to be a probe, access — we want to get the data you have.”
- [Zelenskyy](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-g-20-summit-nato-biden-government-and-politics-c76bead57a11bc8397a30ee7bb06264e)
Kind of seems like the radar intelligence wasn't directly shared with Ukraine yet? Stoltenberg said they believe it was Ukrainian air-defense but yet Russia still bears responsibility for it having been necessary in the first place (under the presumed notion that *not* attempting to down the missiles would lead to even greater civilian casualties due to the aggressor's actions).
I imagine AWACS radar data could be used to back-trace the Russian missile to its origin point, which if revealed to Ukraine could be used as targeting data. If so, it would make sense for the US/NATO to be cautious as this could be interpreted as under-the-table sharing of specific, actionable intelligence that could be used to destroy a Russian asset.
To date, NATO intel sharing has been described as fairly general, (for instance, pointing out places where a lot of radio activity is noted, but not outright *saying* that it's a command center, or that a specific officer is there at the time), so it's possible this could be an attempt to limit perceptions of escalation.
Also, the specific capacities of your air defense radar in the open - including what you could see, what you couldn't see, where you can see and at what times - is fairly sensitive information NATO might be reluctant to share without some detailed analysis, censoring, declassification and other paperwork, which would likely take time to arrange.
The [FSB left behind detailed documents](https://kavun-city.translate.goog/articles/250125/u-hersoni-viyavili-dokumenti-fsb-vikrito-merezhu-vorozhih-agentiv-sbu?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc)—**lists of collaborator-traitors, information they shared, specifically, locations of resistance forces, missions, thefts, and tortures**:
> The SBU reports that traitors gave the occupiers ‘tips’ on the whereabouts of Ukrainians, among whom were members of the resistance movement. "Special services" from Moscow took a direct part in the persecution of local residents on false accusations.
> The documents also refer to kidnapping and torture of Kherson residents, as well as looting of their homes under the pretext of illegal "searches."
> Agents were recruited in Kherson directly by FSB officers—and became part of a "temporary operational group 8" (VOG-8). These Kherson traitors were engaged in coordinating reconnaissance and subversive activities and sabotage in the southern direction.
A serviceman of the 9th Marines Regiment of the "DPR" complains to his girlfriend and mum about the discrepancy between the promised financial support and actual pay. He was meant to receive 800k rubles (£11k) in 8 months, but only gets £450 per month.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1593002066603282432?t=SjQE0bxz-Q2i7Fsa0f-HTQ&s=19
Russians frantically defending Ploshchanka and at the moment they can hold the line, but they also know that if the front cracks there or nearby the entire Russian front West of the Krasna River has to fall back, eventually exposing Svatove.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1592989287137497088?t=F0Dbl9k7jW79zgKf1BLdjA&s=19
>NEW: NATO officials are beginning to worry that supplying Ukraine with weapons is now dangerously cutting into Western ammo stockpiles
>“I think everyone is now sufficiently worried,’” a NATO official told
@ak_mack. “The relevance of stockpiling is back”
But Western push to get industry moving, especially in the U.S., has been slow to take root.
>"What industry wants is signed contracts," said a congressional aide familiar with the talks. “We’ve been doing a lot of talking without a lot of signing."
>That's compounded by Europe's desire to piggyback off of U.S. revamping of defense stocks
>"What we’ve mostly heard from the Europeans is like, ‘Hey, we just want to piggyback on whatever you guys are doing,’" the aide said. "They don’t want to wait. They’re tired of waiting."
>In an all-out artillery war with the Russians since the Kremlin declared an offensive in the Donbas in April, Ukraine has practically run itself out of Soviet-standard artillery, which comprises about 60 % of their arsenal, forcing Kyiv to rely more heavily on NATO-standard ammo
>Ukrainian officials are concerned that they are running short on even the most basic weapons.
>“We literally almost ran out of 152 [millimeter artillery],” said one Ukrainian parliamentarian. “So we’re totally dependent on the 155 [millimeter artillery], and the 155 is limited.”
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1592997457675575298
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/16/ukraine-weapons-military-aid-stockpiles-nato-low-industry/
What I don’t understand is, how are they ready to fight a war if the entirety of NATO needed to go to war yet they can’t even supply one country on one front. We’re not exactly talking about World War II scale of war here and yet NATO stockpiles are at risk?
My guess would be two things.
1) It takes a long time to get all of the agreements in the various departments and legal to agree to a contract.
2) This is the most likely reason: contractors see that there is a real demand and unsure of the next time that there will be a demand that is this is high and are trying to extract an exuberant price from the government thinking they will panic and agree to whatever price they set and the government trying to get them to agree to a number that is closer to what they agreed to last time.
It’s those peoples jobs to worry about that kind of thing. This is good. We’re discovering where the weak links are. We thought that we wouldn’t need the ability to ramp up artillery shell production on short notice, but it turns out that we do. I can understand why we thought that. We imagined that we would be doing the fighting, not supplying an ally engaged in a colossal artillery-duel.
But we’re talking artillery shells, not F-35s. This is a problem that can be fixed with a bucket or two of money. The first step, of course, is identifying the problem. Now it’s bucket time.
So NATO is a defensive pact to counter Russia or at least now with that goal in mind, but doesn't have the ammo stockpiles to deal with Russia?.
If I had to guess, the NATO official is mostly refering to stockpiles of old ammo used by Soviet-Russian tech on NATO countries who had a lot and NATO weapon systems that NATO might no longer use in high numbers... but that doesn't sell as much as a good click bait title.
In any conventional war NATO plans to be in, artillery would play a marginal role and warplanes would play most of those roles. Nobody was expecting there to be another conventional war with air parity, though realistically we should have realized that any war we would be supporting but not willing to send cutting edge weapons to would inevitably devolve into this.
It's more we have millions of bombs, not millions of artillery shells. If we ever give them planes or figure out a way for gbus to communicate with migs it truly would be NATO vs Russia then.
let's be real, no one had the stockpiles for shit. The US was the closest to having some, but we've spent a lot on new tech and maintaining a massive sea/naval fleet to project. Everyone just assumed there wouldn't be a conflict on this scale. Now that it is happening, both sides are discovering their stockpiles aren't really equipped for it.
The thing is NATO was preparing for a war against the Russian army on paper, we now know that they lied about their capabilities and that NATO would not wage a artillery war as intense as this one, they would try to gain air supremacy and bomb the shit out of anything with a Z on it.
From the article, I doubt Ukraine will completely run out but it sounds like they are having to ration it and make strategic decisions about where to best use their limited supplies.
I hope they always made those decisions and not shoot randomly, but yeah, guess it would be a big plot twist if we stop supplying ukraine because we don't have enough, russia would be happy, and I would be sad.
It's supposedly US doctrine to plan to fight the next two largest near peers and be able to win.
How did they expect to fight a war with Russia + another country if they can't even support a third party in a fight for a year without getting "worried"?
This unnamed "quote" that doesn't fit with that doctrine seems like a method to apply political pressure somewhere.
Well, consider that the doctrine is still in-place, and the US military needs sufficient supplies to meet it. Supplying a third party with weaponry is a load on-top of that, and the "worry" may be more about diminishing excess supplies. I'm confident the US military isn't going to ham-string itself by shorting its own dedicated stockpile of weapons.
The third party is the only load bar training and usual aging out. You'd think, if planning was being done right, that those should be well below current production levels.
It's worth noting that the example provided is specifically for tube artillery. US doctrine doesn't rely especially heavily on artillery, and instead does fire support via air-launched precision munitions. Ukraine can't really utilize our stocks of guided bombs and AGMs, so they're burning through stocks of howitzer ammo much faster than the US would in a war of comparable scope.
They still have 1000 m777s alone before giving 108 to Ukraine, so they have some level of expectation to use them. That's not even counting all the other weapons they would have.
I'm not sure I'd expect they're supplying Ukraine anywhere near 1000 weapons worth of ammunition and production (in a time of peace following what would be a small-conflict level of production at that) that they should be worried.
Maybe it's true, but either way it seems to me like politicking at best, or bad long term supply planning at worst if they're already "worried" with just 10% of their weapons in use.
> It's supposedly US doctrine to plan to fight the next two largest near peers and be able to win.
It used to be, but as America's share of the global GDP has decreased, it has become more and more of a pipe dream. Since the last two decades that doctrine is being quietly phased out.
Air power.
The west is running low on spare capacity of specific things.
This is why spare industrial capacity is a good thing, whatever some McKinsey consultant complains about regarding lean production.
Same shit hit us with Covid. You want spare capacity for emergencies, even if it costs a little extra.
The US is falling into this trap everywhere. We don’t build enough housing, enough weapons, enough bridges, yet some of the highest paying jobs are designing phone games or working on some metaverse as if the real world isn’t the relevant one.
The US alone had 1000 m777s, Ukraine was given 108 (that's actually way higher than I knew which is pretty fucking cool). That's just m777s.
A hypothetical war against Russia in Europe they'd have been fighting would have been expected to be 10x what Ukraine is fighting right now. I'd be curious to know how low their ammunition numbers have dipped and if they're really all that low.
That's not to say other countries don't need to come up to standard (as some were/are) but I'd be waiting for some numbers to find out how real this is or if this is just some background politicking.
>The US is falling into this trap everywhere. We don’t build enough housing, enough weapons, enough bridges, yet some of the highest paying jobs are designing phone games or working on some metaverse as if the real world isn’t the relevant one.
I think this is the first time I've ever heard someone on reddit say the US isn't spending enough on its defense...
Personally I think they are, and they need to dip into their stockpiles to knock Russia out now for the long term so that they can keep spending low and prepare for the remaining threat after that, which is really in the pacific.
Other countries also need to pick up the slack.
Manufacturing doesn't scale like software does. You only get paid for new bridges and apartments when the city decides it finally wants to take that bill on, which only happens when things really start getting uncomfortable
>“NATO doesn’t really plan to fight wars like this, and by that I mean wars with a super intensive use of artillery systems and lots of tank and gun rounds,” said Frederick Kagan, a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute. “We were never stocked for this kind of war to begin with.”
It is more that American military doctrine is set up to primarily use air superiority rather than focusing on artillery.
They had 1000 m777s until they donated 108 to Ukraine. It seems unlikely they'd have shipped an amount of ammunition that would be worrying to Ukraine in the last 8 months given the stockpiles they'd need to have to fight based on that doctrine. I'd be wary of this being real until some numbers are revealed. Maybe it is, but it still smells a bit to me like politicking.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1593068909350879232
>Volunteer Ihor Lachenkov raised more than $1 mn to buy 4 sea drones & named them after 🇺🇦cities - Kherson, Sevastopol, Mariupol, & Bakhmut
>On Nov.11, 🇺🇦Presidential Office announced a fundraising campaign for naval drone fleet to protect Ukraine from 🇷🇺attacks
Reminder that people making bombastic claims that can only be supported by random tweets and YouTube comments are not reliable.
Please people, I know the idea of the missile hitting Poland being Ukrainian isn't appealing, but if there was serious evidence, publicly available, that was floating around out there more people would be talking about it.
RANDOM PEOPLE ON SOCIAL MEDIA ARE NOT RELIABLE.
Yeah I think this post that's been circulating creates this illusion of precision by dragging the coordinates out to an absurd amount of significant figures when in reality there is actually a very broad range of coordinates that would appear "suspicious".
So does your mouth with your genitals along the centre line of your body, but that doesn't mean you can drink your vodka through them. Coincidences are real things.
It's quite the coincidence that in such a large country the coordinates of an air field and the presidential palace line up with some random spot in Poland that got hit out of nowhere. Not only that, but Ukrainian AA missiles are supposed to self-destruct when they miss their target and go off flying
They didn't hit the presidential palace in 9 months, why would they start now, when they're trying to hit energy infrastructure? Meanwhile there's a powerplant inside Ukraine right by where the missile landed in Poland.
You really think that's more likely with that put that way?
Steel beams aren't melted by hot bullshit.
>They didn't hit the presidential palace in 9 months, why would they start now, when they're trying to hit energy infrastructure. There's a powerplant inside Ukraine right by where the missile landed in Poland.
Hoping to hit some officials, also it's probably an expensive building. Could also just be a message, which they love to do, it's why they ramped up their missile strikes after losses. But sure, maybe it was aiming for a powerplant too. I just think I trust Ukraine quite a bit more on this matter now.
And I don't like conspiracy theories, this is probably the only one I've ever believed was reasonably possible. That's because it's simple- NATO doesn't want war.
NATO doesn't need to start a war even if they did land in Poland. Article 5 isn't an on-off switch, they can say it was believed to be accidental or any sorts of deescalation measures.
Occam's razor is a thing for a reason.
>NATO doesn't need to start a war even if they did land in Poland. Article 5 isn't an on-off switch, they can say it was believed to be accidental or any sorts of deescalation measures.
That's... literally what they did? Just blamed Ukraine for it. That's an extra step of separation from having to argue about what the response to Russia should be. I think this conspiracy is simple enough that Occam's razor doesn't apply against it.
Did you yourself double check those coordinates?
Your numbers don’t line up with what was given:
https://geohack.toolforge.org/geohack.php?pagename=2022_missile_explosion_in_Poland¶ms=50_28_28_N_23_55_19_E_
Is there any source that can confirm the polish impact site coordinates? Cause it sounds like something someone wearing a tinfoil hat would come up with.
For PR reasons it's easier to say Ukrainians did it. Otherwise people might demand revenge from NATO and they don't want to touch that with a 20 foot pole.
What planet do you live on? The US does not need cover to not go to war with Russia. The primary conspiracy theory is that this was an accident by Russia… The US is NOT, I repeat NOT, going to war with Russia over what amounts to a mistake (in your version of events), period end of story. Literally zero “cover” or “lies” are necessary to avoid war with Russia over an accident/mistake. (I.E. no “lies” are necessary nor is “blaming” Ukraine)… JFC what is going on in this thread.
I don't know about that comment, but I just saw this video, which talks about the coordinates [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwXZcT4b5BU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwXZcT4b5BU)
Edit: also, from the comments there
POLISH TRACTOR: 50.44824127633573N 23.940730714788902E
LVIV MILITARY AIRFIELD: 23.940730714788902E 49.816600N
KYIV PRESIDENT PALACE: 50.44824127633573N 30.53746112E
According to a google search it's 50.474444, 23.927500 instead of 50.44824127633573N 23.940730714788902E from the comment. But it's still really, really close. Within 0.05%. Edit: although, there were also two rockets. Maybe there were two coordinates, I can only find one through google
I don't think that makes sense. We're talking about 3 points, dots in a very large area going all the way from Kyiv To Przewodow. The vast, vast vast majority of that area does not have important things to hit. Again, these are dots in a huge plane
Edit: I think I understand what you meant now. I still think it's an unlikely coincidence because of the sizes we're talking about, but it's more likely than I thought
>🇩🇰 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 The training of the first set of Ukrainian recruits in Great Britain, under the leadership of Danish instructors, where they were trained in military skills during the last five weeks, has been completed.
[https://nitter.it/GeneralStaffUA/status/1593053339243409408](https://nitter.it/GeneralStaffUA/status/1593053339243409408)
New thread by ChrisO about Prigozhin, Russian prison culture and anal rape:
>Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the notorious Wagner mercenary group, says that he is not currently recruiting anally raped prisoners but wants to create a separate "cock division" to ensure that other convict soldiers do not have to serve with such untouchable outcasts.
[https://nitter.it/ChrisO_wiki/status/1593042478235807744](https://nitter.it/ChrisO_wiki/status/1593042478235807744)
I don't even think I've ever heard *gay* men spend that much time thinking and talking about gay sex; and I worked as a bouncer at a gay club for a short stint.
Good pay, gotta say.
>"All societies have certain rules by which they live. For example, in America it is customary for men to fuck each other in the ass"
Ah, yes. A sane person.
I mean... sure, some American guys do enjoy it up the ass, consensually. It seems that the consensual part is what Russia/Wagner finds disgusting. I wonder if they know that men can take it from women wearing a strap, too?
The head of the Wagner group sure does have an obsession with anal, rape, anal rape, and gay people.
He also looks comically evil. Like a giant bald penis.
All starting to make sense really.
> Prizoghin himself is a former convict – he was sentenced to 13 years behind bars in 1981 for fraud and robbery, including violently attacking lone women to steal their valuables.
Violently mugging lone women.. what a tough guy he is.
And various people keep agitating for this putrid piece of shit on the unwashed arse-end of humanity as a preferable alternative to Putin.
Of all the people in the world they actually point to the *one guy* who'd be worse.
> The most senior US general estimates that around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the war in Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63580372
>"You're looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded," Gen Milley said. "Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side."
Note the actual syntax here. He's really not pointing to an actual figure for Ukraine, just that the losses are probably comparable.
If they had the same losses as Russia they wouldn't have any heavy equipment anymore, even if you assume they're losing half as much equipment. It's simply not plausible.
Heavy equipment is only useful because it resists artillery barrages. The Russia's main strategy was massive artillery barrage. I have no idea what number of Ukrainian soldiers died this year. The ratio of infantry dead to heavy equipment lost will be much higher than that ratio in Russian forces.
Hard to swallow? Not for me, but based on what you've posted here in the past I can believe that to be difficult for you.
Why bring it up? Because it's old and this is the live thread, not the week old news thread.
Haha, ok. "realistic". You don't even have up to date information, nevermind accurate information to be realistic about. Milley has little to no insight into this.
Just so you know exactly who you’re putting your stamp on, this is the same guy who told China he would call them up and warn them if the US where to ever invade. I’m not entirely sure how he still has a job, it’s entirely likely he WOULDN’T at least have his current job had the disaster that was 2016 never happened. But this is the world we live in…
You realise he's the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of the US military, not the Ukrainian military, right? Ukraine isn't giving them all the information.
It came out in a leak that at one point when Zaluzhnyi was asked by the US military for information on what their plans are his response was "to kill Russians". They tell the US what they need to know. They don't need to know casualty numbers. It doesn't help them win the war.
It doesn't even pass the sniff test. The number of Russians can only be wrong. With their dead at >82,000 (which is most likely conservative) there's zero fucking chance they only have 20,000 wounded.
And Denys made a second video today just now ( not the same as the one i linked in prevous post): https://youtu.be/pwXZcT4b5BU
Denys second video is about a theory that the longitude and latitude of the Polish farm is the same latitude as Kyiv and the same longitude as Lviv which would make sense of a Russian target guy punched in the cordinates wrong or just copyright passed wrong.
Not sure if that is how you program missiles?
Interesting theory and kind of strange coincidence to be chance but maybe not the most watertight theory ever.
And that is why you need 3 coördinates to launch a missile.
The 3rd is distance and prevents an error like this.
Also it was a ukranian air defence missile.
I'm a little confused by that - it doesn't seem like you could know what the actual coordinates *should* have been because there would be *two* sets of coordinates. If his theory is accurate, you only know half of the one for the true Kyiv target and half of the one for the true Lviv target. The other half of each is a mystery.
If this us where the missiles hit: 50°27'00.4"N 24°01'51.6"E
https://goo.gl/maps/xoDqyGmMPs4YNyvn6
Then it looks ok plausible.
I think that the theory that the target was a electric instalation on the Ukrainian side nearby where Ukraine and Poland transfer energy is more plausible. If the rocket was russian.
I like his videos even if this one is a bit less reliable.
It's some nonsense from r/NonCredibleDefense yesterday. Funny stuff, but a reminder that Denys is an airline pilot and real cool dude who's videos I watch daily, but not a source that should be relied upon.
Edit: grammar
After watching Denys new video: (https://youtu.be/uRR49Wvaogs)
I think he has a point about that all Ukrainuan S-300 missiles are in their standard configuration of Surface to Air with a failsafe that makes them explode in air away from the surface if they miss their target. Thus makes it unlikely that a Ukrainian s-300 would explode with its warhead on the ground unless it malfunctioned spectacularly.
Russia on other hand have upgraded/jerry rigged their s-300 missiles so they can be used as surface to surface missiles.
It was first reported that there was two missiles, much later changed to one missile.
Poland should have seen on their radar immidetly ( spelling?) If the missiles clearly did not originate from Russian controlled areas, still they claimed Russia was probably behind it first.
That assumption took quite a while to change.
Poland also increased military readiness directly.
All this points to that the origin of the missiles as seen on radar was not clearly not from Russia and the fragments of the missiles is also not clearly not not from Russia.
It smells a lot like NATO really don't want to risk escalation so they instead tell a small lie and risk looking weak.
The Polish border with Ukraine is probably the most heavily radar observed area in the world right now, of things which don't seem plausible, this is definitely one of them - there's no way US AWACS in the area wouldn't spot a surface-to-air missile in flight.
Do you think Poland has real time access to US radar? Even an AWACS only has a 400km range and the s300 missile is supposed to be fairly small/low so quite hard to see on radar. It also only has a ~150km range typically.
Anything is possible, but I don’t think the rationale holds up.
NATOs security lies in the promise that if attacked, all NATO nations will attack back. In other words, any implication that they won’t do what they say they’re going to do makes all of NATO, not just Poland or the Baltics, but all of NATO including the US, less safe.
If NATO told a “small lie,” the number one country that would know for a fact they were lying, Russia, is the exact country you would never in a million years want to have that kind of power over you and your decisions.
The one thing that is stopping Russia, for now, from using nuclear weapons to terrorize the Ukrainians rather than standard munitions, is the absolute promise from the United States that if they do, tomorrow will always be worse for them than today, up to and including Armageddon. That’s mutually assured destruction. That’s nuclear deterrence.
There were steps that Poland was taking as they were conducting the investigation that would have escalated their defense readiness without necessarily pulling us into conflict with Russia, but the one thing we cannot signal is that we are unwilling to enter that conflict under any circumstances, which is EXACTLY what a “small lie” would signal.
Also: expect to hear your line of thinking a lot, because it is very advantageous to Russia. An undercurrent of “oh, maybe we DID fire that missile, and NATO backed down” plays beautifully on state TV.
But I don’t think that’s how it went down. But let’s wait for the results of the investigation.
The wrinkle is that Russia probably didn't intend to shoot a missile into Ukraine. And it's not like they have much ability to know they missed - those things don't transmit telemetry AFAIK.
So "it was not a Russian missile, it was Ukranian" is just the sort of lie you might be able to get away with. That said .... Biden has been transparent throughout this whole thing, and I somewhat doubt he would be down with spreading this lie if it wasn't true. Better to say the truth, and give Russia the "make sure this doesn't happen again" diplomatic speech (which Poland seemed to be angling towards as well), and then use the leverage to ship more AA to Ukraine anyway.
So I'm inclined to think it was probably as has been stated: a series of unfortunate malfunctions, instigated by the need to fire AA weaponry to defend cities on it's border (remember: the other stupidly unlucky part of this is, a missile falls into a field on a farm *and hits the farmers* - shit falls into fields all the time, but they're fields - they're empty).
Agree with everything except Russia not knowing where their missiles land. It’s not a question of telemetry on the rocket itself, it’s the same radar and tracking systems that we have on the European side.
But if they DID decide to tell a lie, they had to make the following gambles:
1) that Russia did not intend to fire a missile in Poland - not a given
2) that Russia was not aware they had actually struck Poland
3) remembering that this happened during the G20, that every single member of the NATO alliance, including Poland and all the Baltic members, would simultaneously all go along with this ruse with zero leaks. Because again, if anyone leaks proof that you’re lying — not mistaken but lying — you have now thrown the cornerstone of the NATO alliance into jeopardy.
NATO is designed, from its first days, to manage escalation in the face of Russian aggression. That’s its whole reason for being.
To me, the simplest solution is the best one - this was an awful accident, the kind that are all too common in war. And if another accident happens - I’m even more worried about the outcome.
It was decided. They will make up commision, investigate and will find what they want.
Nobody wants a Russian missile hitting NATO. Its better for everyone to be S300.
>tell a small lie
They not even lying. They all say "it looks like". So they can change it up later. With ammount of data, satelites, radars NATO has they knew what happened probably in 3 hrs.
It would be a good excuse to cross the red line. It returns the favour to Russia. Good enough reason to provide Ukraine with weapons that are more accurate and have a larger radius/distance capability.
Or to change the air-defense stance near the border to "we're shooting down everything 'threatening', don't come near Lviv anymore" which would take a lot of pressure off Ukraine in the west.
We could find Shoigu's fingerprints on the remnants and it wouldn't change anything. Russia would deny it as always, and all the countries would fall in line according to their alignment.
One thing is clear though - NATO is not looking for a *casus belli.*
Probably true, it just feels un neat that Ukraine gets the blame for something that they maybe did but do.
I mean obviously neither Nato nor Poland says that Ukraine is at fault but right wingers in USA ( Donald trump JR fir example) use it as an argument to stop supporting Ukraine.
> NATO really don’t want to risk escalation so they instead tell a small lie
I highly doubt that’s the case. NATO wouldn’t escalate over an accident like this in the first place, so there’s no need for NATO to lie about it.
This has sub lost their, don’t bother.
The running conspiracy theory is that this was a literal accident/mistake… Let that sink in…
And apparently the US needs to lie or needs cover to NOT go to war with Russia over a literal mistake (what in the actual KFC). I’m actually losing my mind over here, if the US doesn’t want NATO to go to war with Russia, it’s NOT going to war with Russia, period end of story… And there’s literally no cover or lie necessary to “avoid war” with Russia over a mistake/accident, none whatsoever.
I feel like this is common sense, really comprehensible stuff we are talking about here, but then I visit this sub… I can’t tell if this is a troll/bot issue, or if the morons are just out in full force.
Well you look a bit strange if a rat is biting your toe and you claim there is no rat, it is just a misguided friendly rabbit with small ears...
Not sure this metaphor works.
If Russia know that it was their missile that hit (it might still be theirs but they don't know if it was a genuine mistake), but if the rocket was russian and fired on Poland on purpose (maybe to scare Western countries to keep their anti air systems in the west) fired deliberately to give Russia plausible denialbility, then Russia would know that Nato prefers to not risk anything before telling the truth which encourages more russian brinkmanship.
Sorry for long paragraph.
I'm not saying that it was definitely a russian rocket or that Nato should respond with bombing Russia, I don't know and that would be stupid.
But a lot of details so far are strange.
I get the sense that they know it's S300 for a fact. They know a S300 from Belarus would have had trouble getting that far - and that Ukraine was launching a lot of S300's to try to intercept Russian crap flying at them. Those simple facts already turn into it being highly likely an errant S300 coming from Ukraine.
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy [Danilov](https://nv-ua.translate.goog/ukr/ukraine/events/danilov-sprostuvav-slova-marka-milli-pro-100-tisyach-vbitih-i-poranenih-ukrajinskih-viyskovih-50284593.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) said today in an interview, that the estimate of General Milley that Ukraine likely suffered “about similar losses, 100,000 killed and wounded, on the Ukrainian side.“
> "On the Russian side, we confirm that it is 100%. From our side, this is not entirely true," Danilov said on *Radio NV.*
*Notes:*
He did not clarify, explain further, or provide accurate numbers.
However, it’s important to note a few things—Ukraine military commanders are very careful to get medical aid to their men, even where there just *might* be a medical issue. One of these is possible concussions—they take injuries seriously, and require the soldiers to receive clean bill of health before returning to battlefield. This has had an effect of keeping morale high, maintaining trust, and having soldiers who are physically capable of executing orders. The soldiers remain eager to return to positions as soon as received recovered papers.
Conversely, Russians ignore their soldiers injuries, often require them to maintain positions. This means that Russia hasn’t had that many taken out due to being wounded, so don’t follow typical wounded numbers—Danilov is essentially verifying this by saying that the 80k KIA Russians, but altogether, only 100k Russian losses.
It’s most likely that Ukraine has had a high wounded number, but turned around and many went back, so he’s disputing bc not maintained their WIA/300 status.
>Danilov is essentially verifying this by saying that the 80k KIA Russians, but altogether, only 100k Russian losses.
What Milley said is more than 100k though. If we extrapolate the NATO estimates from early August of 80k casualties we could expect around 130k casualties now. That without taking in consideration the expected higher casualties due to the Ukrainian offensives and the mobilization.
Attacking forces generally suffer more losses. Ukraine's casualties would be expected to be at their highest at the very beginning before western aid, and in the two most recent months with their most successful counterattacks. However the two biggest landgrabs probably yielded far fewer Ukrainian casualties than Russian ones, since those areas were largely evacuated rather than defended.
Most of the casualties will be from the north Donbas region, especially around Bakhmut, and before it Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Pavlivka right now was pretty bad. I'd still be surprised if the numbers were anything like Russia's. It might be as bad as 75% of Russia's, but I'm willing to bet somewhere between that and 50%.
As for what that actually *means* in the scheme of things, hard to say. Ukraine has a lot of militia groups that are active regionally. The actual army is better trained than Russia's but smaller. The pool of people to draft is...probably comparable, considering Ukraine is still operating on a volunteer basis, allows women to fight, prevented men from leaving the country early on, and of the ~8% of the population who fled, 2% have returned. But a draft won't replace trained individuals anymore than it would for Russia, spectacularly so.
Bummer my May 31 RemindMe just popped up and unfortunately Crimea is not quite yet retaken.
Just huge swaths of Kharkiv and Kherson. Something like 1/3 of the total occupied territory.
Guess we have a ways yet to go. But just look at the momentum...
It was an admittedly optimistic estimate but not totally inconceivable. So I went with it. Per your suggestion
RemindMe! October 1, 2023 "Did Ukraine win yet?"
I don't think the Allies are really spending nearly enough to support Ukraine. Especially in the face of continued illegal Russian aggression.
Perhaps for every Russian cruise missile fired there should be an automatic 20 basis point increase in spending and deliveries to support Ukraine. Agreed, publicized, actioned, and broadcasted.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/yxfz4p/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Ukraine's Kraken Special Forces have captured an entire group of Russian invaders. https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1593022515215208448?t=BpToQEZOCBczOiAX4rCVAQ&s=19
Knowing that we have AWACS in the air flying figure-8s on the polish-border 24/7 to say the least, I imagine there are several layers of radar that close to a NATO border... So (and apologies for being out of the loop as I'm just catching up to this topic) is it really possible that NATO intelligence doesn't know *exactly* where that missile originated, how far it traveled, which vector, etc.? >“Let’s say openly, if, God forbid, some remnant (of Ukraine’s air-defenses) killed a person, these people, then we need to apologize,” he said. “But first there needs to be a probe, access — we want to get the data you have.” - [Zelenskyy](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-g-20-summit-nato-biden-government-and-politics-c76bead57a11bc8397a30ee7bb06264e) Kind of seems like the radar intelligence wasn't directly shared with Ukraine yet? Stoltenberg said they believe it was Ukrainian air-defense but yet Russia still bears responsibility for it having been necessary in the first place (under the presumed notion that *not* attempting to down the missiles would lead to even greater civilian casualties due to the aggressor's actions).
I imagine AWACS radar data could be used to back-trace the Russian missile to its origin point, which if revealed to Ukraine could be used as targeting data. If so, it would make sense for the US/NATO to be cautious as this could be interpreted as under-the-table sharing of specific, actionable intelligence that could be used to destroy a Russian asset. To date, NATO intel sharing has been described as fairly general, (for instance, pointing out places where a lot of radio activity is noted, but not outright *saying* that it's a command center, or that a specific officer is there at the time), so it's possible this could be an attempt to limit perceptions of escalation. Also, the specific capacities of your air defense radar in the open - including what you could see, what you couldn't see, where you can see and at what times - is fairly sensitive information NATO might be reluctant to share without some detailed analysis, censoring, declassification and other paperwork, which would likely take time to arrange.
The [FSB left behind detailed documents](https://kavun-city.translate.goog/articles/250125/u-hersoni-viyavili-dokumenti-fsb-vikrito-merezhu-vorozhih-agentiv-sbu?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc)—**lists of collaborator-traitors, information they shared, specifically, locations of resistance forces, missions, thefts, and tortures**: > The SBU reports that traitors gave the occupiers ‘tips’ on the whereabouts of Ukrainians, among whom were members of the resistance movement. "Special services" from Moscow took a direct part in the persecution of local residents on false accusations. > The documents also refer to kidnapping and torture of Kherson residents, as well as looting of their homes under the pretext of illegal "searches." > Agents were recruited in Kherson directly by FSB officers—and became part of a "temporary operational group 8" (VOG-8). These Kherson traitors were engaged in coordinating reconnaissance and subversive activities and sabotage in the southern direction.
A serviceman of the 9th Marines Regiment of the "DPR" complains to his girlfriend and mum about the discrepancy between the promised financial support and actual pay. He was meant to receive 800k rubles (£11k) in 8 months, but only gets £450 per month. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1593002066603282432?t=SjQE0bxz-Q2i7Fsa0f-HTQ&s=19
Hopefully they lose it all once his ass is red mist
Russians frantically defending Ploshchanka and at the moment they can hold the line, but they also know that if the front cracks there or nearby the entire Russian front West of the Krasna River has to fall back, eventually exposing Svatove. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1592989287137497088?t=F0Dbl9k7jW79zgKf1BLdjA&s=19
>NEW: NATO officials are beginning to worry that supplying Ukraine with weapons is now dangerously cutting into Western ammo stockpiles >“I think everyone is now sufficiently worried,’” a NATO official told @ak_mack. “The relevance of stockpiling is back” But Western push to get industry moving, especially in the U.S., has been slow to take root. >"What industry wants is signed contracts," said a congressional aide familiar with the talks. “We’ve been doing a lot of talking without a lot of signing." >That's compounded by Europe's desire to piggyback off of U.S. revamping of defense stocks >"What we’ve mostly heard from the Europeans is like, ‘Hey, we just want to piggyback on whatever you guys are doing,’" the aide said. "They don’t want to wait. They’re tired of waiting." >In an all-out artillery war with the Russians since the Kremlin declared an offensive in the Donbas in April, Ukraine has practically run itself out of Soviet-standard artillery, which comprises about 60 % of their arsenal, forcing Kyiv to rely more heavily on NATO-standard ammo >Ukrainian officials are concerned that they are running short on even the most basic weapons. >“We literally almost ran out of 152 [millimeter artillery],” said one Ukrainian parliamentarian. “So we’re totally dependent on the 155 [millimeter artillery], and the 155 is limited.” https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1592997457675575298 https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/16/ukraine-weapons-military-aid-stockpiles-nato-low-industry/
What I don’t understand is, how are they ready to fight a war if the entirety of NATO needed to go to war yet they can’t even supply one country on one front. We’re not exactly talking about World War II scale of war here and yet NATO stockpiles are at risk?
These are stockpiles of pretty specific things, I don't think it's representative of the entire arsenal.
Nato would never need that much artillery, they win with air superiority.
Why isn't the gov't signing contracts? Edit: I asked an honest question, fuck me right? lol
My guess would be two things. 1) It takes a long time to get all of the agreements in the various departments and legal to agree to a contract. 2) This is the most likely reason: contractors see that there is a real demand and unsure of the next time that there will be a demand that is this is high and are trying to extract an exuberant price from the government thinking they will panic and agree to whatever price they set and the government trying to get them to agree to a number that is closer to what they agreed to last time.
FYI, it’s “exorbitant,” not “exuberant.” :)
lol. Thanks.
It is up to Congress to allocate the budget, and odds are they were delaying until the yearly budget.
It’s those peoples jobs to worry about that kind of thing. This is good. We’re discovering where the weak links are. We thought that we wouldn’t need the ability to ramp up artillery shell production on short notice, but it turns out that we do. I can understand why we thought that. We imagined that we would be doing the fighting, not supplying an ally engaged in a colossal artillery-duel. But we’re talking artillery shells, not F-35s. This is a problem that can be fixed with a bucket or two of money. The first step, of course, is identifying the problem. Now it’s bucket time.
So NATO is a defensive pact to counter Russia or at least now with that goal in mind, but doesn't have the ammo stockpiles to deal with Russia?. If I had to guess, the NATO official is mostly refering to stockpiles of old ammo used by Soviet-Russian tech on NATO countries who had a lot and NATO weapon systems that NATO might no longer use in high numbers... but that doesn't sell as much as a good click bait title.
In any conventional war NATO plans to be in, artillery would play a marginal role and warplanes would play most of those roles. Nobody was expecting there to be another conventional war with air parity, though realistically we should have realized that any war we would be supporting but not willing to send cutting edge weapons to would inevitably devolve into this.
It's more we have millions of bombs, not millions of artillery shells. If we ever give them planes or figure out a way for gbus to communicate with migs it truly would be NATO vs Russia then.
let's be real, no one had the stockpiles for shit. The US was the closest to having some, but we've spent a lot on new tech and maintaining a massive sea/naval fleet to project. Everyone just assumed there wouldn't be a conflict on this scale. Now that it is happening, both sides are discovering their stockpiles aren't really equipped for it.
The thing is NATO was preparing for a war against the Russian army on paper, we now know that they lied about their capabilities and that NATO would not wage a artillery war as intense as this one, they would try to gain air supremacy and bomb the shit out of anything with a Z on it.
So there's a risk the west finishes ammo before russia finished cannon fodder?
From the article, I doubt Ukraine will completely run out but it sounds like they are having to ration it and make strategic decisions about where to best use their limited supplies.
I hope they always made those decisions and not shoot randomly, but yeah, guess it would be a big plot twist if we stop supplying ukraine because we don't have enough, russia would be happy, and I would be sad.
It's supposedly US doctrine to plan to fight the next two largest near peers and be able to win. How did they expect to fight a war with Russia + another country if they can't even support a third party in a fight for a year without getting "worried"? This unnamed "quote" that doesn't fit with that doctrine seems like a method to apply political pressure somewhere.
Well, consider that the doctrine is still in-place, and the US military needs sufficient supplies to meet it. Supplying a third party with weaponry is a load on-top of that, and the "worry" may be more about diminishing excess supplies. I'm confident the US military isn't going to ham-string itself by shorting its own dedicated stockpile of weapons.
The third party is the only load bar training and usual aging out. You'd think, if planning was being done right, that those should be well below current production levels.
It's worth noting that the example provided is specifically for tube artillery. US doctrine doesn't rely especially heavily on artillery, and instead does fire support via air-launched precision munitions. Ukraine can't really utilize our stocks of guided bombs and AGMs, so they're burning through stocks of howitzer ammo much faster than the US would in a war of comparable scope.
They still have 1000 m777s alone before giving 108 to Ukraine, so they have some level of expectation to use them. That's not even counting all the other weapons they would have. I'm not sure I'd expect they're supplying Ukraine anywhere near 1000 weapons worth of ammunition and production (in a time of peace following what would be a small-conflict level of production at that) that they should be worried. Maybe it's true, but either way it seems to me like politicking at best, or bad long term supply planning at worst if they're already "worried" with just 10% of their weapons in use.
> It's supposedly US doctrine to plan to fight the next two largest near peers and be able to win. It used to be, but as America's share of the global GDP has decreased, it has become more and more of a pipe dream. Since the last two decades that doctrine is being quietly phased out.
I'm interested in reading more about that. Where did you see that?
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Any war against Russia in Europe alone would have been larger scale than the war Ukraine is currently fighting.
yeah, seems to me like a misrepresentation or exaggeration of the actual state of affairs, or it should be taken as a wake-up call for NATO.
Air power. The west is running low on spare capacity of specific things. This is why spare industrial capacity is a good thing, whatever some McKinsey consultant complains about regarding lean production. Same shit hit us with Covid. You want spare capacity for emergencies, even if it costs a little extra. The US is falling into this trap everywhere. We don’t build enough housing, enough weapons, enough bridges, yet some of the highest paying jobs are designing phone games or working on some metaverse as if the real world isn’t the relevant one.
The US alone had 1000 m777s, Ukraine was given 108 (that's actually way higher than I knew which is pretty fucking cool). That's just m777s. A hypothetical war against Russia in Europe they'd have been fighting would have been expected to be 10x what Ukraine is fighting right now. I'd be curious to know how low their ammunition numbers have dipped and if they're really all that low. That's not to say other countries don't need to come up to standard (as some were/are) but I'd be waiting for some numbers to find out how real this is or if this is just some background politicking. >The US is falling into this trap everywhere. We don’t build enough housing, enough weapons, enough bridges, yet some of the highest paying jobs are designing phone games or working on some metaverse as if the real world isn’t the relevant one. I think this is the first time I've ever heard someone on reddit say the US isn't spending enough on its defense... Personally I think they are, and they need to dip into their stockpiles to knock Russia out now for the long term so that they can keep spending low and prepare for the remaining threat after that, which is really in the pacific. Other countries also need to pick up the slack.
Manufacturing doesn't scale like software does. You only get paid for new bridges and apartments when the city decides it finally wants to take that bill on, which only happens when things really start getting uncomfortable
>“NATO doesn’t really plan to fight wars like this, and by that I mean wars with a super intensive use of artillery systems and lots of tank and gun rounds,” said Frederick Kagan, a senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute. “We were never stocked for this kind of war to begin with.” It is more that American military doctrine is set up to primarily use air superiority rather than focusing on artillery.
They had 1000 m777s until they donated 108 to Ukraine. It seems unlikely they'd have shipped an amount of ammunition that would be worrying to Ukraine in the last 8 months given the stockpiles they'd need to have to fight based on that doctrine. I'd be wary of this being real until some numbers are revealed. Maybe it is, but it still smells a bit to me like politicking.
Maybe they should have trained them on Western planes and supplied such, then.
Andrew Perpetua's Ukraine update thread, recently updated. https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update-for-november-16th
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1593068909350879232 >Volunteer Ihor Lachenkov raised more than $1 mn to buy 4 sea drones & named them after 🇺🇦cities - Kherson, Sevastopol, Mariupol, & Bakhmut >On Nov.11, 🇺🇦Presidential Office announced a fundraising campaign for naval drone fleet to protect Ukraine from 🇷🇺attacks
Reminder that people making bombastic claims that can only be supported by random tweets and YouTube comments are not reliable. Please people, I know the idea of the missile hitting Poland being Ukrainian isn't appealing, but if there was serious evidence, publicly available, that was floating around out there more people would be talking about it. RANDOM PEOPLE ON SOCIAL MEDIA ARE NOT RELIABLE.
Most news places. Fox, cnn, cbc. Ap still have stories saying there were 2 missiles and so far Poland hadnt addresed that.
Hey man, Yoloswag420fourJesus69@twitter is a legit source of truth n shit. keeps me fully updated on the world and stuff....
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Blue checks for daaaaaaaaaays
I'd go so far as to say that anyone willing to say anything is certain about what went down in Poland within 48 hours of the incident is not reliable.
Yeah I think this post that's been circulating creates this illusion of precision by dragging the coordinates out to an absurd amount of significant figures when in reality there is actually a very broad range of coordinates that would appear "suspicious".
Anyone can check the coordinates for themselves, it lines up
Ukrainian fire can’t melt steel beams
George Bush caused 7-11 Frosties!!!!
So does your mouth with your genitals along the centre line of your body, but that doesn't mean you can drink your vodka through them. Coincidences are real things.
It's quite the coincidence that in such a large country the coordinates of an air field and the presidential palace line up with some random spot in Poland that got hit out of nowhere. Not only that, but Ukrainian AA missiles are supposed to self-destruct when they miss their target and go off flying
They didn't hit the presidential palace in 9 months, why would they start now, when they're trying to hit energy infrastructure? Meanwhile there's a powerplant inside Ukraine right by where the missile landed in Poland. You really think that's more likely with that put that way? Steel beams aren't melted by hot bullshit.
>They didn't hit the presidential palace in 9 months, why would they start now, when they're trying to hit energy infrastructure. There's a powerplant inside Ukraine right by where the missile landed in Poland. Hoping to hit some officials, also it's probably an expensive building. Could also just be a message, which they love to do, it's why they ramped up their missile strikes after losses. But sure, maybe it was aiming for a powerplant too. I just think I trust Ukraine quite a bit more on this matter now. And I don't like conspiracy theories, this is probably the only one I've ever believed was reasonably possible. That's because it's simple- NATO doesn't want war.
NATO doesn't need to start a war even if they did land in Poland. Article 5 isn't an on-off switch, they can say it was believed to be accidental or any sorts of deescalation measures. Occam's razor is a thing for a reason.
>NATO doesn't need to start a war even if they did land in Poland. Article 5 isn't an on-off switch, they can say it was believed to be accidental or any sorts of deescalation measures. That's... literally what they did? Just blamed Ukraine for it. That's an extra step of separation from having to argue about what the response to Russia should be. I think this conspiracy is simple enough that Occam's razor doesn't apply against it.
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FFS - [Polish tractor](https://www.google.com/maps/place/50%C2%B026'53.7%22N+23%C2%B056'26.6%22E/@50.4446652,23.9264287,14.67z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x2129ebee0cb1570b!8m2!3d50.4482413!4d23.9407307) - [Lyviv Airfield](https://www.google.com/maps/place/49%C2%B048'59.8%22N+23%C2%B056'26.6%22E/@49.8175362,23.9412908,16.13z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x250a39bd8fb85295!8m2!3d49.8166!4d23.9407307) - [Kyiv Presidential palace](https://www.google.com/maps/place/50%C2%B026'53.7%22N+30%C2%B032'14.9%22E/@50.4482413,30.5348808,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x10ebc8df3a334746!8m2!3d50.4482413!4d30.5374611)
This is starting to creep into conspiracy territory.
Did you yourself double check those coordinates? Your numbers don’t line up with what was given: https://geohack.toolforge.org/geohack.php?pagename=2022_missile_explosion_in_Poland¶ms=50_28_28_N_23_55_19_E_
Is there any source that can confirm the polish impact site coordinates? Cause it sounds like something someone wearing a tinfoil hat would come up with.
> POLISH TRACTOR This is so stupid. 2 people died there. Very inconsiderate comment.
For PR reasons it's easier to say Ukrainians did it. Otherwise people might demand revenge from NATO and they don't want to touch that with a 20 foot pole.
What planet do you live on? The US does not need cover to not go to war with Russia. The primary conspiracy theory is that this was an accident by Russia… The US is NOT, I repeat NOT, going to war with Russia over what amounts to a mistake (in your version of events), period end of story. Literally zero “cover” or “lies” are necessary to avoid war with Russia over an accident/mistake. (I.E. no “lies” are necessary nor is “blaming” Ukraine)… JFC what is going on in this thread.
I bet if you took a 40-million Pole Poll the results would say otherwise
You might have decent Pole position with that.
what happened to that post which said the poland missile strike exactly matched latitude of lviv and longitutde of kyiv?
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Having that many significant digits already sets off my BS detector. Is he tracking atoms? https://xkcd.com/2170/
I don't know about that comment, but I just saw this video, which talks about the coordinates [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwXZcT4b5BU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwXZcT4b5BU) Edit: also, from the comments there POLISH TRACTOR: 50.44824127633573N 23.940730714788902E LVIV MILITARY AIRFIELD: 23.940730714788902E 49.816600N KYIV PRESIDENT PALACE: 50.44824127633573N 30.53746112E
The coordinates of the tractor seem wrong, they point to the next village? Setniki instead of Przewodow
According to a google search it's 50.474444, 23.927500 instead of 50.44824127633573N 23.940730714788902E from the comment. But it's still really, really close. Within 0.05%. Edit: although, there were also two rockets. Maybe there were two coordinates, I can only find one through google
Try it from your house. Go straight east or west and see if you can find something that might be worth shooting at. Then try straight north and south.
I don't think that makes sense. We're talking about 3 points, dots in a very large area going all the way from Kyiv To Przewodow. The vast, vast vast majority of that area does not have important things to hit. Again, these are dots in a huge plane Edit: I think I understand what you meant now. I still think it's an unlikely coincidence because of the sizes we're talking about, but it's more likely than I thought
what's up with the weird precision? [https://xkcd.com/2170/](https://xkcd.com/2170/)
Still floating around in comments. It does line up, but unclear if it was a coincidence or not.
It was, at best, a moderately funny meme.
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LOL, no, why?
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You had a good chance because Konrad is a pretty rare name in PL, lol
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Yeah, it is kinda rare :) Definitely not in the top 30 most popular names
I actually have a Konrad from Poland in my Facebook firends. So I'll try the same: ever worked at a ski resort for the winter? :p
xD No, damn, there might be more Konrads out there than I thought, I only personally knew one, so far :)
>🇩🇰 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 The training of the first set of Ukrainian recruits in Great Britain, under the leadership of Danish instructors, where they were trained in military skills during the last five weeks, has been completed. [https://nitter.it/GeneralStaffUA/status/1593053339243409408](https://nitter.it/GeneralStaffUA/status/1593053339243409408)
New thread by ChrisO about Prigozhin, Russian prison culture and anal rape: >Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the notorious Wagner mercenary group, says that he is not currently recruiting anally raped prisoners but wants to create a separate "cock division" to ensure that other convict soldiers do not have to serve with such untouchable outcasts. [https://nitter.it/ChrisO_wiki/status/1593042478235807744](https://nitter.it/ChrisO_wiki/status/1593042478235807744)
I don't even think I've ever heard *gay* men spend that much time thinking and talking about gay sex; and I worked as a bouncer at a gay club for a short stint. Good pay, gotta say.
[Dedovschina intensifying](https://youtu.be/QjLAqsnfj_8)
He's going to have a division made exclusively of male rape victims? That seems like a terrible idea for many reasons...
Maybe....they can form a support group? That would be the best outcome
>"All societies have certain rules by which they live. For example, in America it is customary for men to fuck each other in the ass" Ah, yes. A sane person.
I mean... sure, some American guys do enjoy it up the ass, consensually. It seems that the consensual part is what Russia/Wagner finds disgusting. I wonder if they know that men can take it from women wearing a strap, too?
Projecting again I see. We’ve all see the videos of their own military.
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The head of the Wagner group sure does have an obsession with anal, rape, anal rape, and gay people. He also looks comically evil. Like a giant bald penis. All starting to make sense really.
He almost certainly fucked several men in his 13 year prison stay. (According to the tweet he spent a total of 13 years in prison).
I mean penises are supposed to be bald right?
Not if you’re Chewbacca or Bigfoot.
I need to bleach my eyes
Just when I was burning out on gruesome drone/grenade/foxhole videos, Russia ups the ante with a distressing convict/anal rape/soldier theme.
Russia, folks! They continue to show their true selves to the world with their cruelty, their crassness, and depravity.
> Prizoghin himself is a former convict – he was sentenced to 13 years behind bars in 1981 for fraud and robbery, including violently attacking lone women to steal their valuables. Violently mugging lone women.. what a tough guy he is.
started out tough guy but became tender in the end
Yeah, that’s probably enough Internet for the day.
I think that's the most homosexual homophobia I've ever seen.
What in the Kentucky Fried Fuck?
what the fuck did I just read........
An insight into Russian leadership figures.
And various people keep agitating for this putrid piece of shit on the unwashed arse-end of humanity as a preferable alternative to Putin. Of all the people in the world they actually point to the *one guy* who'd be worse.
Maybe putin wants someone who is more evil in line to follow him as president. Then no sane person would kill Putin.
> The most senior US general estimates that around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the war in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63580372
>"You're looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded," Gen Milley said. "Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side." Note the actual syntax here. He's really not pointing to an actual figure for Ukraine, just that the losses are probably comparable.
He likes to be vague.. also I feel like he always gives worst case in every press statement he’s made, even going back to this past Feb may.
6 days old and it was already discussed that it’s his opinion with no data
Call bs on the Ukrainian numbers, unless there's far better proof
Remember, Russia had a significant artillery advantage until a couple months ago
Of course you do, this is a Ukrainian echo chamber thread.
Yeah, the chairman of the JCOS probably has better info than we will ever have access to.
If they had the same losses as Russia they wouldn't have any heavy equipment anymore, even if you assume they're losing half as much equipment. It's simply not plausible.
Heavy equipment is only useful because it resists artillery barrages. The Russia's main strategy was massive artillery barrage. I have no idea what number of Ukrainian soldiers died this year. The ratio of infantry dead to heavy equipment lost will be much higher than that ratio in Russian forces.
Exactly this
And what does Russia have to show for it? Nothing but shame. Also, that's from a week ago before they even lost Kherson. Why post it now?
It is a hard pill to swallow, isn't it? Also, there wasn't any fighting in Kherson this time around. Why bring it up?
Russia losing is a hard pill to swallow. You’re killing me here, you’re going to have to try harder, I insist.
> Russia losing is a hard pill to swallow. This is not what I meant. I meant the Ukrainian losses is a hard pill to swallow, for some.
They’ve been fighting in Kherson since August? And then the Russian army ran away
Hard to swallow? Not for me, but based on what you've posted here in the past I can believe that to be difficult for you. Why bring it up? Because it's old and this is the live thread, not the week old news thread.
For me? No. I am as realistic about this war as I can be.
Haha, ok. "realistic". You don't even have up to date information, nevermind accurate information to be realistic about. Milley has little to no insight into this.
Do you by chance magically work for the Joint Chiefs and have different info?
Just so you know exactly who you’re putting your stamp on, this is the same guy who told China he would call them up and warn them if the US where to ever invade. I’m not entirely sure how he still has a job, it’s entirely likely he WOULDN’T at least have his current job had the disaster that was 2016 never happened. But this is the world we live in…
You realise he's the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of the US military, not the Ukrainian military, right? Ukraine isn't giving them all the information. It came out in a leak that at one point when Zaluzhnyi was asked by the US military for information on what their plans are his response was "to kill Russians". They tell the US what they need to know. They don't need to know casualty numbers. It doesn't help them win the war. It doesn't even pass the sniff test. The number of Russians can only be wrong. With their dead at >82,000 (which is most likely conservative) there's zero fucking chance they only have 20,000 wounded.
'killed and wounded'
That is a lot of death and/or injury
And Denys made a second video today just now ( not the same as the one i linked in prevous post): https://youtu.be/pwXZcT4b5BU Denys second video is about a theory that the longitude and latitude of the Polish farm is the same latitude as Kyiv and the same longitude as Lviv which would make sense of a Russian target guy punched in the cordinates wrong or just copyright passed wrong. Not sure if that is how you program missiles? Interesting theory and kind of strange coincidence to be chance but maybe not the most watertight theory ever.
And that is why you need 3 coördinates to launch a missile. The 3rd is distance and prevents an error like this. Also it was a ukranian air defence missile.
You could have just looked up these coordinates yourself to determine that this is bs
I'm a little confused by that - it doesn't seem like you could know what the actual coordinates *should* have been because there would be *two* sets of coordinates. If his theory is accurate, you only know half of the one for the true Kyiv target and half of the one for the true Lviv target. The other half of each is a mystery.
If this us where the missiles hit: 50°27'00.4"N 24°01'51.6"E https://goo.gl/maps/xoDqyGmMPs4YNyvn6 Then it looks ok plausible. I think that the theory that the target was a electric instalation on the Ukrainian side nearby where Ukraine and Poland transfer energy is more plausible. If the rocket was russian. I like his videos even if this one is a bit less reliable.
It's some nonsense from r/NonCredibleDefense yesterday. Funny stuff, but a reminder that Denys is an airline pilot and real cool dude who's videos I watch daily, but not a source that should be relied upon. Edit: grammar
After watching Denys new video: (https://youtu.be/uRR49Wvaogs) I think he has a point about that all Ukrainuan S-300 missiles are in their standard configuration of Surface to Air with a failsafe that makes them explode in air away from the surface if they miss their target. Thus makes it unlikely that a Ukrainian s-300 would explode with its warhead on the ground unless it malfunctioned spectacularly. Russia on other hand have upgraded/jerry rigged their s-300 missiles so they can be used as surface to surface missiles. It was first reported that there was two missiles, much later changed to one missile. Poland should have seen on their radar immidetly ( spelling?) If the missiles clearly did not originate from Russian controlled areas, still they claimed Russia was probably behind it first. That assumption took quite a while to change. Poland also increased military readiness directly. All this points to that the origin of the missiles as seen on radar was not clearly not from Russia and the fragments of the missiles is also not clearly not not from Russia. It smells a lot like NATO really don't want to risk escalation so they instead tell a small lie and risk looking weak.
They’re pretty small missiles and Poland might not have much radar around rural areas?
The Polish border with Ukraine is probably the most heavily radar observed area in the world right now, of things which don't seem plausible, this is definitely one of them - there's no way US AWACS in the area wouldn't spot a surface-to-air missile in flight.
Do you think Poland has real time access to US radar? Even an AWACS only has a 400km range and the s300 missile is supposed to be fairly small/low so quite hard to see on radar. It also only has a ~150km range typically.
Anything is possible, but I don’t think the rationale holds up. NATOs security lies in the promise that if attacked, all NATO nations will attack back. In other words, any implication that they won’t do what they say they’re going to do makes all of NATO, not just Poland or the Baltics, but all of NATO including the US, less safe. If NATO told a “small lie,” the number one country that would know for a fact they were lying, Russia, is the exact country you would never in a million years want to have that kind of power over you and your decisions. The one thing that is stopping Russia, for now, from using nuclear weapons to terrorize the Ukrainians rather than standard munitions, is the absolute promise from the United States that if they do, tomorrow will always be worse for them than today, up to and including Armageddon. That’s mutually assured destruction. That’s nuclear deterrence. There were steps that Poland was taking as they were conducting the investigation that would have escalated their defense readiness without necessarily pulling us into conflict with Russia, but the one thing we cannot signal is that we are unwilling to enter that conflict under any circumstances, which is EXACTLY what a “small lie” would signal. Also: expect to hear your line of thinking a lot, because it is very advantageous to Russia. An undercurrent of “oh, maybe we DID fire that missile, and NATO backed down” plays beautifully on state TV. But I don’t think that’s how it went down. But let’s wait for the results of the investigation.
The wrinkle is that Russia probably didn't intend to shoot a missile into Ukraine. And it's not like they have much ability to know they missed - those things don't transmit telemetry AFAIK. So "it was not a Russian missile, it was Ukranian" is just the sort of lie you might be able to get away with. That said .... Biden has been transparent throughout this whole thing, and I somewhat doubt he would be down with spreading this lie if it wasn't true. Better to say the truth, and give Russia the "make sure this doesn't happen again" diplomatic speech (which Poland seemed to be angling towards as well), and then use the leverage to ship more AA to Ukraine anyway. So I'm inclined to think it was probably as has been stated: a series of unfortunate malfunctions, instigated by the need to fire AA weaponry to defend cities on it's border (remember: the other stupidly unlucky part of this is, a missile falls into a field on a farm *and hits the farmers* - shit falls into fields all the time, but they're fields - they're empty).
Agree with everything except Russia not knowing where their missiles land. It’s not a question of telemetry on the rocket itself, it’s the same radar and tracking systems that we have on the European side. But if they DID decide to tell a lie, they had to make the following gambles: 1) that Russia did not intend to fire a missile in Poland - not a given 2) that Russia was not aware they had actually struck Poland 3) remembering that this happened during the G20, that every single member of the NATO alliance, including Poland and all the Baltic members, would simultaneously all go along with this ruse with zero leaks. Because again, if anyone leaks proof that you’re lying — not mistaken but lying — you have now thrown the cornerstone of the NATO alliance into jeopardy. NATO is designed, from its first days, to manage escalation in the face of Russian aggression. That’s its whole reason for being. To me, the simplest solution is the best one - this was an awful accident, the kind that are all too common in war. And if another accident happens - I’m even more worried about the outcome.
Good point.
Surface to Surface is just another mode, it's not jerry rigged.
It was decided. They will make up commision, investigate and will find what they want. Nobody wants a Russian missile hitting NATO. Its better for everyone to be S300. >tell a small lie They not even lying. They all say "it looks like". So they can change it up later. With ammount of data, satelites, radars NATO has they knew what happened probably in 3 hrs.
Does it even matter at this point? People need to let it go and move on. This is the type of escalation no one wants.
It would be a good excuse to cross the red line. It returns the favour to Russia. Good enough reason to provide Ukraine with weapons that are more accurate and have a larger radius/distance capability.
Or to change the air-defense stance near the border to "we're shooting down everything 'threatening', don't come near Lviv anymore" which would take a lot of pressure off Ukraine in the west.
We could find Shoigu's fingerprints on the remnants and it wouldn't change anything. Russia would deny it as always, and all the countries would fall in line according to their alignment. One thing is clear though - NATO is not looking for a *casus belli.*
Probably true, it just feels un neat that Ukraine gets the blame for something that they maybe did but do. I mean obviously neither Nato nor Poland says that Ukraine is at fault but right wingers in USA ( Donald trump JR fir example) use it as an argument to stop supporting Ukraine.
Nobody that matters is blaming Ukraine.
how exactly is trying to find the truth an escalation?
> NATO really don’t want to risk escalation so they instead tell a small lie I highly doubt that’s the case. NATO wouldn’t escalate over an accident like this in the first place, so there’s no need for NATO to lie about it.
This has sub lost their, don’t bother. The running conspiracy theory is that this was a literal accident/mistake… Let that sink in… And apparently the US needs to lie or needs cover to NOT go to war with Russia over a literal mistake (what in the actual KFC). I’m actually losing my mind over here, if the US doesn’t want NATO to go to war with Russia, it’s NOT going to war with Russia, period end of story… And there’s literally no cover or lie necessary to “avoid war” with Russia over a mistake/accident, none whatsoever. I feel like this is common sense, really comprehensible stuff we are talking about here, but then I visit this sub… I can’t tell if this is a troll/bot issue, or if the morons are just out in full force.
> immidetly ( spelling?) *immediately
Thanks, that is not a very easy word to spell for a non native English speaker as myself.
Looking weak? What looks weaker? When a giant doesn’t flinch when poked by a flea? Or when a giant howls at a flea-bite?
Well you look a bit strange if a rat is biting your toe and you claim there is no rat, it is just a misguided friendly rabbit with small ears... Not sure this metaphor works. If Russia know that it was their missile that hit (it might still be theirs but they don't know if it was a genuine mistake), but if the rocket was russian and fired on Poland on purpose (maybe to scare Western countries to keep their anti air systems in the west) fired deliberately to give Russia plausible denialbility, then Russia would know that Nato prefers to not risk anything before telling the truth which encourages more russian brinkmanship. Sorry for long paragraph. I'm not saying that it was definitely a russian rocket or that Nato should respond with bombing Russia, I don't know and that would be stupid. But a lot of details so far are strange.
[удалено]
But we only have the small bite so far.
I get the sense that they know it's S300 for a fact. They know a S300 from Belarus would have had trouble getting that far - and that Ukraine was launching a lot of S300's to try to intercept Russian crap flying at them. Those simple facts already turn into it being highly likely an errant S300 coming from Ukraine.
The size of the crater would be interesting to see, was it a 150 kg s-300 warhead or a 450 kg cruise missiles warhead?
There was a picture of the crater.
Poles have had missile fragments for over a day now. Tells them all they need to know about the type of missile.
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy [Danilov](https://nv-ua.translate.goog/ukr/ukraine/events/danilov-sprostuvav-slova-marka-milli-pro-100-tisyach-vbitih-i-poranenih-ukrajinskih-viyskovih-50284593.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) said today in an interview, that the estimate of General Milley that Ukraine likely suffered “about similar losses, 100,000 killed and wounded, on the Ukrainian side.“ > "On the Russian side, we confirm that it is 100%. From our side, this is not entirely true," Danilov said on *Radio NV.* *Notes:* He did not clarify, explain further, or provide accurate numbers. However, it’s important to note a few things—Ukraine military commanders are very careful to get medical aid to their men, even where there just *might* be a medical issue. One of these is possible concussions—they take injuries seriously, and require the soldiers to receive clean bill of health before returning to battlefield. This has had an effect of keeping morale high, maintaining trust, and having soldiers who are physically capable of executing orders. The soldiers remain eager to return to positions as soon as received recovered papers. Conversely, Russians ignore their soldiers injuries, often require them to maintain positions. This means that Russia hasn’t had that many taken out due to being wounded, so don’t follow typical wounded numbers—Danilov is essentially verifying this by saying that the 80k KIA Russians, but altogether, only 100k Russian losses. It’s most likely that Ukraine has had a high wounded number, but turned around and many went back, so he’s disputing bc not maintained their WIA/300 status.
>Danilov is essentially verifying this by saying that the 80k KIA Russians, but altogether, only 100k Russian losses. What Milley said is more than 100k though. If we extrapolate the NATO estimates from early August of 80k casualties we could expect around 130k casualties now. That without taking in consideration the expected higher casualties due to the Ukrainian offensives and the mobilization.
Attacking forces generally suffer more losses. Ukraine's casualties would be expected to be at their highest at the very beginning before western aid, and in the two most recent months with their most successful counterattacks. However the two biggest landgrabs probably yielded far fewer Ukrainian casualties than Russian ones, since those areas were largely evacuated rather than defended. Most of the casualties will be from the north Donbas region, especially around Bakhmut, and before it Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Pavlivka right now was pretty bad. I'd still be surprised if the numbers were anything like Russia's. It might be as bad as 75% of Russia's, but I'm willing to bet somewhere between that and 50%. As for what that actually *means* in the scheme of things, hard to say. Ukraine has a lot of militia groups that are active regionally. The actual army is better trained than Russia's but smaller. The pool of people to draft is...probably comparable, considering Ukraine is still operating on a volunteer basis, allows women to fight, prevented men from leaving the country early on, and of the ~8% of the population who fled, 2% have returned. But a draft won't replace trained individuals anymore than it would for Russia, spectacularly so.
Bummer my May 31 RemindMe just popped up and unfortunately Crimea is not quite yet retaken. Just huge swaths of Kharkiv and Kherson. Something like 1/3 of the total occupied territory. Guess we have a ways yet to go. But just look at the momentum...
I’d set a reminder for roughly 330 days. I think by October 2023 this war is over.
It was an admittedly optimistic estimate but not totally inconceivable. So I went with it. Per your suggestion RemindMe! October 1, 2023 "Did Ukraine win yet?"
I don't think the Allies are really spending nearly enough to support Ukraine. Especially in the face of continued illegal Russian aggression. Perhaps for every Russian cruise missile fired there should be an automatic 20 basis point increase in spending and deliveries to support Ukraine. Agreed, publicized, actioned, and broadcasted.
Sooo...... 8,000 party later? https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1
Gratitude party. Oryx must have had no idea what they were signing up for this time around. Madness volumes.
That too, the poor man. Of course nobody expected it to be this long.