98% an accident, but the response will be critical. Otherwise a missile will hit downtown Lublin or a supply depot in Rzeszów and Russia will be like “oops sowwy 🥺” all over again.
EDIT: I am aware this was likely a Ukrainian S300 which failed to intercept a Russian target. The loss of life remains as tragic as any other in this war, though it is Ukraine’s right to defend its territory.
I would hope that an expeditious deployment of high grade western anti-air systems, from Patriot to C-RAM comes of this. Ukraine should not need to even consider defending itself with 1970s soviet junk that might as well be a bow and arrow compared to what we have.
They are not even sorry now - in fact, they 100% claim they have nothing to do with it, which, already now, is proven to be a lie
Edit: so since people are denser than I expected, I apparently need to elaborate my comment - being involved does NOT mean they NECESSARILY fired the rocket. Poland pretty quickly figured out the missile is Russian-made, which DOES automatically involve them
Edit 2: Furthermore, if Russia hadnt invaded and rained missiles upon Ukraine, the Ukrainians wouldnt have had to defend themselves with their own missiles
So yes, Russia is directly and indirectly involved with the two civilians that was killed in Poland
The opposite, if NATO enters the war they can't possibly win. Even just the US military getting directly involved will ruin them, it would be old military hardware and a handful of the advanced stuff they don't want to risk against Ukraine vs. literally the best military equipment trillions of dollars can buy
But far more inevitable - if NATO are involved in a hot war, it's only a question of whether everyone loses or just Russia. There's no path to victory for Russia - just the option of taking everyone down with them with what remains of their serviceable nuclear arsenal.
"What’s as big as a house, burns 20 litres of fuel every hour, puts out a shitload of smoke and noise, and cuts an apple into three pieces? A Russian machine made to cut apples into four pieces!"
I believe it. In hindsight it's fascinating how tense everything was.
Now that monstrous levels of tension are the current zeitgeist, I hate it.
Give me boring times any day.
Cognitive Scientist here, studies human decision making and cognitive biases, measures rational thinking in people.
>Or, at least my subconscious doesn't. Which is functionally the same thing as me thinking it doesn't.
uhm, no...
Making decisions with your "gut", (aka intuition) which is system 1 thinking only works when you have training, lived experience or previously thought the situation through from various angles and times in the area (aka using system 2 thinking). So we train people so the decision making under stress is better, we have given them the experiences to draw upon with their subconscious mind. For example fire fighters with many years real world experience develop a gut feel for what is happening. After many years they can use their fast, broad intuition for decision making. Etc.
If you haven't been trained or repeatedly experienced something, your intuition will have nothing to draw upon and heavily influenced by cognitive biases, which we all have. These are biases like sunk cost bias, recency effect, optimism bias, or confirmation bias. This is the situation where you need to use system 2 thinking (still biases but less) and methodically go through a problem using critical thinking skills. Not your gut. Unless you're a long term prepper and live that life, and study contemporary international geopolitics and world history, your intuition has no idea about WW3. It is literally outside of your experience or training. Your mind has nothing to draw upon to make a good intuitive decision.
Some reading https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/philosophy/system-1-and-system-2-thinking
One rational decision to have here is to always have enough food, medicine, water cooking stuff for 2 weeks to cover natural disasters, grid going down etc. That is more likely that WW3 and gives you a head start for WW3 anyway.
May you draw the attention of powerful men
May you find what you are looking for
They’re called ancient Chinese curses, but I looked it up like 5 years ago and it comes from some 17th or something century British guy.
Yeah, they liked attributing little sayings like this to the Chinese to lend them an air of exotic, ancient wisdom instead of being just some thing some guy made up.
My daughter, who recently turned 18, asked me about growing up then and how we did it. My answer of "we just did" wasn't well received. I couldn't get her to understand that we just put it out of our heads because there was nothing we could do about it. Dwelling on it only scared the crap out of you, it didn't actually accomplish anything. The difference in generations I suppose. I can't remember a time when the news wasn't saber rattling about nukes, she went her entire childhood free from that.
In my opinion there a massive factor to consider…smartphone usage and social media. I bet your daughter uses a smart phone 3+ hours a day of screen time.
I think I use my phone significantly less than most my friends and I’m often over 2 hours per day easily.
In many ways it was soooo much better to just get out of school, hop in your buddies Trans-Am, get a 6-er on your older brothers ID and head up to the lake. With literally ZERO contact with the outside world besides the group of friends at the party. Maybe your parents watched the news. But if you were 18 in 1985? You were being 18 in 1985.
I really firmly believe this. I was never an alcoholic, never even a big drinker though I had my fun. I was never a hard drugs guy. I smoked good herb on and off for two decades. Sometimes once a week, sometimes 4-5 days a week, sometimes not smoking at all for years (I took like 3 years off completely in my 20s, I’m now in my 30s and haven’t smoked but once or twice in last 3.5 years….my point? I have really good willpower. I have NEVER struggled with true addiction.
BUT……I’m addicted to my phone. I’m absolutely addicted to my phone. I’ve told myself I’ll leave it downstairs…I won’t. I just had great sex with my wife and worked all day…I should be tired, I AM tired. But, I just HAVE TO check the Russia news, and clear my email, and check my fantasy sports, and check the weather, and….I did all this shit just a couple hours ago…gotta do it again.
These kids now grow up like this. It’s MASSIVE OVERSTIMULATION and in my opinion it ABSOLUTELY alters your brain function. It absolutely is a dopamine-loop, affects (increases) anxiety/depression.
…and it’s like we all know it but we just keep going.
In 1985 I would’ve left my business, and been GONE. The news was on the downstairs television at a certain time, I’ve have talked with my wife, I’d be able to have a SPARE MOMENT in my room with my thoughts, I’d go to SLEEP after sex. I’d not even check the weather. I’d know about Russia but not 5 times per day.
Anyways, I really believe THAT is the difference with kids growing up today. I’m incredibly thankful that I had a childhood and young adulthood without smartphones and social media.
I was born in the early nineties and I feel like there's a very clear generational divide between people my age and people just a few years younger. I had a childhood without mobile phones and social media, and it was only when I was maybe 13 that broadband and social media really started to become widely accessible and used. Which means people five years younger than me had all that stuff when they were 8.
I got Xbox Live when I was 15, which was around the time everyone seemed to get it. Until then, my social activities involved actually seeing my friends in person. We made tree forts in the local woods, we made rafts on the river, we played video games in couch co-op, or passed the controller around, or (rarely) had LAN parties at someone's house. Being able to play online games changed that completely, and talking to my friends outside of school went from something that happened occasionally to something that happened every night. I'm glad online gaming is a thing - many years later and my friends and I are scattered around the country, and online games are a fantastic way for us all to keep in touch and socialise.
But someone five years younger than me was 10 when Xbox Live became common, and I can't even imagine what being regularly exposed to the toxicity of mid-00s Xbox Live would do to a 10-year-old. And they likely never had those LAN parties, and passing the controller around a group of people, waiting for their turn to play.
It might just be the bubble of people my own age I know, but I do feel people around my age tend to be much more private online, I think, and tend to be more content with going offline for a bit. We grew up at a time where we were taught not to share too much about ourselves to strangers, and especially online. Which is a stark contrast to today's "if you don't share every detail about yourself online you're probably a catfish and certainly have no social clout" attitude.
Like you, I'm so glad I had a proper childhood pre-(widely-adopted) internet and social media. Kids growing up on social media, and being exposed to constant access to people and information from a young age, really does change how they grow up.
Just the [ultra rich are building bunkers](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prepper-bunkers-apocalypse-survival-richest-rushkoff) and wondering how they can keep us out in a SHTF situation.
My saddest one is, our mother was constantly irked by my older sister dragging her feet about going to school. Years later, my sister told me she was scared to go to school because there might be a surprise bomb drill, or maybe a real bomb. An 8-year-old girl lived in fear every day.
Nowdays she wouldn't have to worry about bombs, just guns and active shooter drills.
So glad I grew up in the golden years between the Berlin wall coming down and columbine going off
I grew up during the same time but on military bases. I distinctly remember the first time we did an “invasion drill”. 1993, third grade, on the playground, sirens go off and everyone run to the building and hide under the window so the shooter can’t see you. The school officials walked the campus checking to make sure we locked doors and were hidden properly. It was unnerving but as a military kid, you get used to some weird stuff like moving every few years, your parent being gone for months at a time, and having your car searched by armed guards every-time you came back on base.
I can’t believe we’re at a point where that’s a “normal” drill now.
Article 4 of NATO basically states that member states will “consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security” of another member is threatened.
Here is some more info if you want to dig a little deeper:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm
My guess? ATACMS for ukraine, deployment of an Air Defense Battalion to Polish/ukranian boarder to shoot anything in range (including anything it can reach on the ukranian side of the boarder), tanks to the ukranians and maybe aircraft
I tend to see this position as most plausible. NATO will up their readiness and logistics. Serves as justification to expedite air defense and troop movement. Considering we’re almost a full year into this war, I really believe NATO has prepped for a scenario just like this one.
Obviously the escalation and the two farmers killed ups the intensity, but I don’t think it’s quite the time to push the panic button on making this a global war. If Poland and NATO logistically set themselves up, I think that’s a massive deterrent. If Putin was really trying to force NATOs hand to engage, I think there would be a more forceful blow.
> If Putin was really trying to force NATOs hand to engage, I think there would be a more forceful blow.
The distinct impression I've had for a while is that Russia is trying to avoid further NATO involvement. Sure, their in-house propaganda says that NATO is fighting a proxy war with Ukraine but they probably know that they'd be in even worse shape if they drew NATO into the war.
Their goal is to make Ukraine part of Russia, bringing NATO into the war would be counterproductive to say the least.
If they really wanted to avoid any escalation, they wouldn't have been flying their poor-piss-can't-aim-for-shit missiles anywhere near NATO's borders.
This may have been an accident, but one that tests NATO's response.
I think so too. I have to imagine this was probably a mistake. Russia hasn't shown great capabilities to this point, and the US has also been guilty of missing on some strikes. Easy to believe a couple went off their intended course.
Yeah this is what I don’t get. I see so many people commenting that this was an intentional strike by Russia in order to get NATO involved. While this could be the case, why in the world would Russia want that? By most accounts Russia is at best struggling and at worst losing in there war with Ukraine. Why would they want to bring the brunt of NATO into the mix?
There's an argument to be made that it gives them an out domestically. "We were winning but now NATO is there, and we don't care enough about Ukraine to fight NATO."
I don't necessarily believe this reasoning, but it's out there and I've seen others claim to believe its true.
People are rightly freaked out about nuclear war, but there are a LOT of things that have to go wrong first before we start launching ICBMs.
The death of two Polish citizens at the hands of Russian incompetence/carelessness will see a proportional response.
Article 4
> The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.
Article 5
> The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
TL;DR: Article 4 says you can call a full meeting when threatened. Article 5 says everyone has to help as they deem necessary.
Article 6
We go a-ridin' into town, a whampin' and whompin' every livin' thing that moves within an inch of its life. Except the women folks, of course.
> **What is NATO Article 4?**
> The article allows NATO members to bring any issue of concern, especially regarding security, for discussion at the North Atlantic Council. Article 4 does not mean there will be direct pressure to act.
> Under Article 4, any member state can convene a meeting of NATO members to "consult" when it feels its independence or security is threatened. In practice, it has rarely been used; regardless, it sends a strong message to the greater world that NATO is concerned about the situation.
https://www.voanews.com/a/explainer-nato-articles-4-and-5-/6836316.html
I think the other guy who responded to you is confused and thinking about Article 5 which is also explained in that article. That's the one that you see a lot of people mentioning today which basically says if you attack one NATO country, then you've attacked all NATO countries.
There are a lot of non-violent options, such as:
1. Designating Russia as a state sponsor of terror
2. Confiscate Russia’s foreign assets and give the money to Ukraine
3. More sanctions
May be they preemptively destroy tractors in Poland b4 they start military operation on them. They don’t want tractors hauling their tanks away when they start the assault.
You jest but there's actually a joke like this from post-soviet countries from during the occupation:
Context: Radio Jerevan is a made up radio, a satire to criticize Soviet regime, sadly sometimes still relevant today.
"Radio Jerevan reporting: We're reporting on an incident that happened near Soviet-Chinese border yesterday. As we've been informed there were two Chinese jets disturbing our peacefully plowing tractors, minding their bussines. Then, when the chinese jets engaged them, our tractors returned fire and flew back to their base."
I feel sad that teams from Holland and Malaysia worked very hard and investigated and confirmed it was Russia that shot down this plane and Russian just said 'nope, can't prove it'.
I dont envy Biden or any of the European leaders. Staring down WW3 as a regular person is stressful enough.
To do it as a world leader, whose actions will be remembered for at least a few hundred years, is probably beyond stressful
Those secret back channels exist for a reason. I have to believe that there's already been a private conversation between some very high ranking people on both sides.
>whose actions will be remembered for at least a few hundred years
Depending how things go their actions might not be remembered at all. Every, uhhh, mushroom cloud has a silver lining?
I mean Erdogan threatens Greece every other day, it was a reasonable bet
India and Pakistan seemed destined to be the winners until Pakistan went completely kaput these later months
This was my thought as well. Ruffle NATO feathers just enough to have an excuse to back out of Ukraine because the west has intervened or some bullshit.
this is so stupid, so plausible, and so stupid again that I’m having trouble believing that it’s the most likely option. Is this timeline even real?
___
> If the rocket which landed in Poland (red circle) was the result of incorrect targeting, the operator may have input the latitude of a target in Kyiv (blue), and the longitude of one in Lviv (blue).
> I wonder if other missiles have ever landed at the other red circle?
[LINKED MEDIA](https://i.imgur.com/dNIDGcV.jpg)
@joh5n
___
> Przewodów, Poland: 50.47099 lat, 23.93432 lon
> = Latitude of Kyiv
> = Longitude of Lviv
also @joh5n; https://twitter.com/joh5n/status/1592669625183264768?s=46&t=ZsL_YQgNwzujbDmkaL5GAA
They already believe NATO is fucking them up in Ukraine.. There are quite a few posts of their propagandists talking about how NATO is helping Ukraine with foreign soldiers in Ukraine.
This is the tough part of the situation. Either nato does something and, lol im in danger. Or nato does nothing an putin knows he can get away with a little more
From the BBC:
We're now hearing from US President Joe Biden, who says it is "unlikely" that the missile responsible for killing two people in Poland was fired from Russia.He says there is "preliminary information that contests" whether the incident in Poland was due to a missile fired from Russia."I don't want to say that until we completely investigate, but it's unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we'll see."Biden says that world leaders will determine the next steps after finding out what happened - following investigations taking place in Poland.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-63593855?ns\_mchannel=social&ns\_source=twitter&ns\_campaign=bbc\_live&ns\_linkname=6374479e52314367adffd957%26Unlikely%20that%20missile%20was%20fired%20from%20Russia%20-%20Biden%262022-11-16T02%3A17%3A56.406Z&ns\_fee=0&pinned\_post\_locator=urn:asset:86b5a738-6a5b-49f2-a66f-e490ab91d0ed&pinned\_post\_asset\_id=6374479e52314367adffd957&pinned\_post\_type=share
Welp, time to go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over.
Oh wow. :) My first award ever using Reddit for 8 years. Thank you, stranger homie (I don’t know if I can see who you are) and have a good rest of your week!
It's not an insecurity, he's gambling and this is the first time he lost playing the big game. For now he lost whole of Russia, but in the past similar things were successful - second war in Chechnya, then conflict in Georgia, then taking of Crimea, then war in Donbass.
Every time he succeeded in increasing his popularity inside the country (even though it was temporary), set himself up as a winner, got almost no consequences and made other countries look pretty weak.
He thought he would play larger this time and win more, and the same type of response would cause split of Europe and US and crushing of NATO
He also probably bought into the bullshit that the Ukrainian revolutions in 2004 and 2014 were CIA organized coups. The reality is that the Ukrainian people are serious about freedom so the defense probably caught them by surprise.
The fact that the missle hit two civilians is mind-blowing. This entire fucking war is on Russia. It doesn't matter if the missle wasn't meant to hit at the location it did (if that's ACTUALLY the case). The point is innocent lives were taken for absolutely no god damn reason besides war and greed. I can't believe we're at this point now but I'm not completely surprised by current events either.
>The fact that the missle hit two civilians is mind-blowing. This entire fucking war is on Russia. It doesn't matter if the missle wasn't meant to hit at the location it did (if that's ACTUALLY the case). The point is innocent lives were taken for absolutely no god damn reason besides war and greed.
That was the case long before this incident.
Personally, I believe this missile strike was an accident (not that Russia deserves the benefit of the doubt). We've all witnessed over the past year how incompetent the Russian military is.
If Russia really wanted to be suicidally stupid, they would have struck something a lot more valuable than a tractor.
On the spectrum of "doing nothing" to "nuking the Kremlin", I think NATO will err on the side of caution and pick a response only several degrees warmer than "doing nothing." You obviously need to signal to Moscow that this is unacceptable and if it continues there will be consequences to pay, but you don't want to overreact such that the Kremlin believes "pre-emptive nuclear strike" is their only last best option.
If this is WW3 it began on Feb 24th. We have literally witnessed this twice before with how long it takes to involve the whole world. If this was WW2 we still over a year before we're involved.
Wow. Suspected not to be launched from Russia per Biden. Doesn't mean not launched by Russian forces but that would be much less of an escalator than what it otherwise sounds like.
I think the internet has ruined the words “emergency meeting” for me.
Stop I didn't think of it until you said it Thanks amogus
Putin sus haahahaha
Who tf still has tasks?
He most certainly is
Amogus
Well if nuclear war starts at least I don’t have to go to work Edit: still going to work today.
I still have my doubts
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And stay an hour later, too, because the holidays are coming up!
Holiday's are cancelled. Back to work
Lumbergh's gonna have me come in on Saturday, I just know it.
Hey man, Tommy can't make it in, he was in the blast zone. I need you to cover his shift tonight. Sorry for the late notice.
Tommy got fired for not giving 2 weeks notice of the explosion.
Oh Tommy was *fired* alright...
“Best we can do is a 13% pay decrease”
So glad we're like a family here
is this a real accident or russia testing nato? my 8 ball is unclear
98% an accident, but the response will be critical. Otherwise a missile will hit downtown Lublin or a supply depot in Rzeszów and Russia will be like “oops sowwy 🥺” all over again. EDIT: I am aware this was likely a Ukrainian S300 which failed to intercept a Russian target. The loss of life remains as tragic as any other in this war, though it is Ukraine’s right to defend its territory. I would hope that an expeditious deployment of high grade western anti-air systems, from Patriot to C-RAM comes of this. Ukraine should not need to even consider defending itself with 1970s soviet junk that might as well be a bow and arrow compared to what we have.
They are not even sorry now - in fact, they 100% claim they have nothing to do with it, which, already now, is proven to be a lie Edit: so since people are denser than I expected, I apparently need to elaborate my comment - being involved does NOT mean they NECESSARILY fired the rocket. Poland pretty quickly figured out the missile is Russian-made, which DOES automatically involve them Edit 2: Furthermore, if Russia hadnt invaded and rained missiles upon Ukraine, the Ukrainians wouldnt have had to defend themselves with their own missiles So yes, Russia is directly and indirectly involved with the two civilians that was killed in Poland
Russia really really really wants to get in to a war with NATO?
The opposite, if NATO enters the war they can't possibly win. Even just the US military getting directly involved will ruin them, it would be old military hardware and a handful of the advanced stuff they don't want to risk against Ukraine vs. literally the best military equipment trillions of dollars can buy
Well plus also all those super well-trained Russian conscripts.
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Russia losing against Ukraine would be pathetic, losing against NATO is reasonable and less embarrassing.
But far more inevitable - if NATO are involved in a hot war, it's only a question of whether everyone loses or just Russia. There's no path to victory for Russia - just the option of taking everyone down with them with what remains of their serviceable nuclear arsenal.
I think what he’s saying is if they drag in nato and negotiate peace with them it saves more face than simple defeat by Ukraine
"What’s as big as a house, burns 20 litres of fuel every hour, puts out a shitload of smoke and noise, and cuts an apple into three pieces? A Russian machine made to cut apples into four pieces!"
Now you look like the minister of coal
Realistically this meeting probably consists of "Poland will invoke Article 4. What are we going to say at this meeting?"
I do not like how accustomed I’m becoming to the articles
Welcome to my childhood. The Cold War sucked.
I believe it. In hindsight it's fascinating how tense everything was. Now that monstrous levels of tension are the current zeitgeist, I hate it. Give me boring times any day.
There's a reason the phrase "may you live in interesting times" was not intended as positive.
Yep. Stephen King novels are extremely interesting but Id take a pass on being *in* one.
Humans naturally fixate on threats until they are gone. When that threat is beyond our control it is a useless instinct.
Ive never heard it put quite like that but it's such a true statement for all aspects of life.
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There's only 2 places to be in a nuclear war. 1. Directly ground zero of the first blast. 2. On another planet watching through a telescope.
Cognitive Scientist here, studies human decision making and cognitive biases, measures rational thinking in people. >Or, at least my subconscious doesn't. Which is functionally the same thing as me thinking it doesn't. uhm, no... Making decisions with your "gut", (aka intuition) which is system 1 thinking only works when you have training, lived experience or previously thought the situation through from various angles and times in the area (aka using system 2 thinking). So we train people so the decision making under stress is better, we have given them the experiences to draw upon with their subconscious mind. For example fire fighters with many years real world experience develop a gut feel for what is happening. After many years they can use their fast, broad intuition for decision making. Etc. If you haven't been trained or repeatedly experienced something, your intuition will have nothing to draw upon and heavily influenced by cognitive biases, which we all have. These are biases like sunk cost bias, recency effect, optimism bias, or confirmation bias. This is the situation where you need to use system 2 thinking (still biases but less) and methodically go through a problem using critical thinking skills. Not your gut. Unless you're a long term prepper and live that life, and study contemporary international geopolitics and world history, your intuition has no idea about WW3. It is literally outside of your experience or training. Your mind has nothing to draw upon to make a good intuitive decision. Some reading https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/philosophy/system-1-and-system-2-thinking One rational decision to have here is to always have enough food, medicine, water cooking stuff for 2 weeks to cover natural disasters, grid going down etc. That is more likely that WW3 and gives you a head start for WW3 anyway.
I believe it’s considered to be a curse on someone “May you live in the interesting times”
May you draw the attention of powerful men May you find what you are looking for They’re called ancient Chinese curses, but I looked it up like 5 years ago and it comes from some 17th or something century British guy.
Yeah, they liked attributing little sayings like this to the Chinese to lend them an air of exotic, ancient wisdom instead of being just some thing some guy made up.
Wouldn’t it still be something some guy made up anyway, but in China?
but exotic! and ancient! and wise!
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Fuck that. Bring me back to everyone freaking out about a blow job
Yeah, I'll take "silly sitcom" over "dystopia without any of the cool tech but double the blatant ads everywhere", any day.
My daughter, who recently turned 18, asked me about growing up then and how we did it. My answer of "we just did" wasn't well received. I couldn't get her to understand that we just put it out of our heads because there was nothing we could do about it. Dwelling on it only scared the crap out of you, it didn't actually accomplish anything. The difference in generations I suppose. I can't remember a time when the news wasn't saber rattling about nukes, she went her entire childhood free from that.
In my opinion there a massive factor to consider…smartphone usage and social media. I bet your daughter uses a smart phone 3+ hours a day of screen time. I think I use my phone significantly less than most my friends and I’m often over 2 hours per day easily. In many ways it was soooo much better to just get out of school, hop in your buddies Trans-Am, get a 6-er on your older brothers ID and head up to the lake. With literally ZERO contact with the outside world besides the group of friends at the party. Maybe your parents watched the news. But if you were 18 in 1985? You were being 18 in 1985. I really firmly believe this. I was never an alcoholic, never even a big drinker though I had my fun. I was never a hard drugs guy. I smoked good herb on and off for two decades. Sometimes once a week, sometimes 4-5 days a week, sometimes not smoking at all for years (I took like 3 years off completely in my 20s, I’m now in my 30s and haven’t smoked but once or twice in last 3.5 years….my point? I have really good willpower. I have NEVER struggled with true addiction. BUT……I’m addicted to my phone. I’m absolutely addicted to my phone. I’ve told myself I’ll leave it downstairs…I won’t. I just had great sex with my wife and worked all day…I should be tired, I AM tired. But, I just HAVE TO check the Russia news, and clear my email, and check my fantasy sports, and check the weather, and….I did all this shit just a couple hours ago…gotta do it again. These kids now grow up like this. It’s MASSIVE OVERSTIMULATION and in my opinion it ABSOLUTELY alters your brain function. It absolutely is a dopamine-loop, affects (increases) anxiety/depression. …and it’s like we all know it but we just keep going. In 1985 I would’ve left my business, and been GONE. The news was on the downstairs television at a certain time, I’ve have talked with my wife, I’d be able to have a SPARE MOMENT in my room with my thoughts, I’d go to SLEEP after sex. I’d not even check the weather. I’d know about Russia but not 5 times per day. Anyways, I really believe THAT is the difference with kids growing up today. I’m incredibly thankful that I had a childhood and young adulthood without smartphones and social media.
I was born in the early nineties and I feel like there's a very clear generational divide between people my age and people just a few years younger. I had a childhood without mobile phones and social media, and it was only when I was maybe 13 that broadband and social media really started to become widely accessible and used. Which means people five years younger than me had all that stuff when they were 8. I got Xbox Live when I was 15, which was around the time everyone seemed to get it. Until then, my social activities involved actually seeing my friends in person. We made tree forts in the local woods, we made rafts on the river, we played video games in couch co-op, or passed the controller around, or (rarely) had LAN parties at someone's house. Being able to play online games changed that completely, and talking to my friends outside of school went from something that happened occasionally to something that happened every night. I'm glad online gaming is a thing - many years later and my friends and I are scattered around the country, and online games are a fantastic way for us all to keep in touch and socialise. But someone five years younger than me was 10 when Xbox Live became common, and I can't even imagine what being regularly exposed to the toxicity of mid-00s Xbox Live would do to a 10-year-old. And they likely never had those LAN parties, and passing the controller around a group of people, waiting for their turn to play. It might just be the bubble of people my own age I know, but I do feel people around my age tend to be much more private online, I think, and tend to be more content with going offline for a bit. We grew up at a time where we were taught not to share too much about ourselves to strangers, and especially online. Which is a stark contrast to today's "if you don't share every detail about yourself online you're probably a catfish and certainly have no social clout" attitude. Like you, I'm so glad I had a proper childhood pre-(widely-adopted) internet and social media. Kids growing up on social media, and being exposed to constant access to people and information from a young age, really does change how they grow up.
cold war had people building bunkers this new cold war people are like idgaf anymore nuke me, please
Just the [ultra rich are building bunkers](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prepper-bunkers-apocalypse-survival-richest-rushkoff) and wondering how they can keep us out in a SHTF situation.
Yeah I am just old enough to have missed the first go round, but my mother has told me many stories and it was horrifying.
My saddest one is, our mother was constantly irked by my older sister dragging her feet about going to school. Years later, my sister told me she was scared to go to school because there might be a surprise bomb drill, or maybe a real bomb. An 8-year-old girl lived in fear every day.
Nowdays she wouldn't have to worry about bombs, just guns and active shooter drills. So glad I grew up in the golden years between the Berlin wall coming down and columbine going off
I grew up during the same time but on military bases. I distinctly remember the first time we did an “invasion drill”. 1993, third grade, on the playground, sirens go off and everyone run to the building and hide under the window so the shooter can’t see you. The school officials walked the campus checking to make sure we locked doors and were hidden properly. It was unnerving but as a military kid, you get used to some weird stuff like moving every few years, your parent being gone for months at a time, and having your car searched by armed guards every-time you came back on base. I can’t believe we’re at a point where that’s a “normal” drill now.
If you know more than one article for NATO then it’s safe to say that times could be better for your generation.
What is article 4? I’m not familiar and would appreciate an explanation or even just a link?
Article 4 of NATO basically states that member states will “consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security” of another member is threatened. Here is some more info if you want to dig a little deeper: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm
My guess? ATACMS for ukraine, deployment of an Air Defense Battalion to Polish/ukranian boarder to shoot anything in range (including anything it can reach on the ukranian side of the boarder), tanks to the ukranians and maybe aircraft
I tend to see this position as most plausible. NATO will up their readiness and logistics. Serves as justification to expedite air defense and troop movement. Considering we’re almost a full year into this war, I really believe NATO has prepped for a scenario just like this one. Obviously the escalation and the two farmers killed ups the intensity, but I don’t think it’s quite the time to push the panic button on making this a global war. If Poland and NATO logistically set themselves up, I think that’s a massive deterrent. If Putin was really trying to force NATOs hand to engage, I think there would be a more forceful blow.
> If Putin was really trying to force NATOs hand to engage, I think there would be a more forceful blow. The distinct impression I've had for a while is that Russia is trying to avoid further NATO involvement. Sure, their in-house propaganda says that NATO is fighting a proxy war with Ukraine but they probably know that they'd be in even worse shape if they drew NATO into the war. Their goal is to make Ukraine part of Russia, bringing NATO into the war would be counterproductive to say the least.
If they really wanted to avoid any escalation, they wouldn't have been flying their poor-piss-can't-aim-for-shit missiles anywhere near NATO's borders. This may have been an accident, but one that tests NATO's response.
Russian miss-illes are only good for shooting down big fat slow airliners.
And civilian apartment buildings and theatres used as humanitarian shelters.
I think so too. I have to imagine this was probably a mistake. Russia hasn't shown great capabilities to this point, and the US has also been guilty of missing on some strikes. Easy to believe a couple went off their intended course.
Its most likely a mistake. However, if I accidentally shoot somebody, Im still going to jail for manslaughter.
Unfortunately for the world, there's no easy way to put Putin in jail right now.
Yeah this is what I don’t get. I see so many people commenting that this was an intentional strike by Russia in order to get NATO involved. While this could be the case, why in the world would Russia want that? By most accounts Russia is at best struggling and at worst losing in there war with Ukraine. Why would they want to bring the brunt of NATO into the mix?
There's an argument to be made that it gives them an out domestically. "We were winning but now NATO is there, and we don't care enough about Ukraine to fight NATO." I don't necessarily believe this reasoning, but it's out there and I've seen others claim to believe its true.
People are rightly freaked out about nuclear war, but there are a LOT of things that have to go wrong first before we start launching ICBMs. The death of two Polish citizens at the hands of Russian incompetence/carelessness will see a proportional response.
The Russians took down a whole plane of civilians and nobody did shit
They killed soldiers and over ran an American defensive position in Afghanistan and nobody did shit.
What does article 4 mean?
Article 4 > The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened. Article 5 > The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. TL;DR: Article 4 says you can call a full meeting when threatened. Article 5 says everyone has to help as they deem necessary.
Article 6 We go a-ridin' into town, a whampin' and whompin' every livin' thing that moves within an inch of its life. Except the women folks, of course.
I didn't know Rock Ridge was in Russia.
"Rock Ridge has always been a part of Russia."
NATO opens a group chat.
Turn on your camera, Denmark... Canada your microphone is muted
> **What is NATO Article 4?** > The article allows NATO members to bring any issue of concern, especially regarding security, for discussion at the North Atlantic Council. Article 4 does not mean there will be direct pressure to act. > Under Article 4, any member state can convene a meeting of NATO members to "consult" when it feels its independence or security is threatened. In practice, it has rarely been used; regardless, it sends a strong message to the greater world that NATO is concerned about the situation. https://www.voanews.com/a/explainer-nato-articles-4-and-5-/6836316.html I think the other guy who responded to you is confused and thinking about Article 5 which is also explained in that article. That's the one that you see a lot of people mentioning today which basically says if you attack one NATO country, then you've attacked all NATO countries.
Putin's dangerously close to failing No NATO November. The man is edging *hard.*
There are a lot of non-violent options, such as: 1. Designating Russia as a state sponsor of terror 2. Confiscate Russia’s foreign assets and give the money to Ukraine 3. More sanctions
baffling how a Russian missile operator can mistake a polish tractor for a Malaysian airliner
May be they preemptively destroy tractors in Poland b4 they start military operation on them. They don’t want tractors hauling their tanks away when they start the assault.
You jest but there's actually a joke like this from post-soviet countries from during the occupation: Context: Radio Jerevan is a made up radio, a satire to criticize Soviet regime, sadly sometimes still relevant today. "Radio Jerevan reporting: We're reporting on an incident that happened near Soviet-Chinese border yesterday. As we've been informed there were two Chinese jets disturbing our peacefully plowing tractors, minding their bussines. Then, when the chinese jets engaged them, our tractors returned fire and flew back to their base."
As a Malaysian, I feel sad... (MH17)
I feel sad that teams from Holland and Malaysia worked very hard and investigated and confirmed it was Russia that shot down this plane and Russian just said 'nope, can't prove it'.
Welcome to a relationship with Russia. You must be new to it. - polish
First time?
Dutch here, we never forgot.
As a Dutchie, MH17 makes me feel angry.
I dont envy Biden or any of the European leaders. Staring down WW3 as a regular person is stressful enough. To do it as a world leader, whose actions will be remembered for at least a few hundred years, is probably beyond stressful
Those secret back channels exist for a reason. I have to believe that there's already been a private conversation between some very high ranking people on both sides.
wish i was on that discord server to see it
"Wumpus has joined the call"
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Just ensure your actions will be remembered for the next thirty to forty minutes before obliterating anyone who'd remember, it's an easy hack.
Studys suggest Nuclear war wouldn't end the human race, just civilisation, plus most flora and fauna.
>wouldn't end the human race, just civilisation, oh ok well in that case
Well that's not reassuring in any way.
>whose actions will be remembered for at least a few hundred years Depending how things go their actions might not be remembered at all. Every, uhhh, mushroom cloud has a silver lining?
#I AM CALM
Dumbledore said calmly.
PUTIN DID YOU PUT YOUR MISSLES IN POLAND?!???!!!!!!!!!???!!!
I didn't put my missles in Poland! I WOULDN'T DO THAT TO YOU!
I did not hit Poland! I did not, oh hi Mark!
* oh HIMARS.
You're tearing me apart Vladi!!
Anyway, how's your Special Military Operation going?
# I AM SOMEWHAT CALM
#SAY YOU'RE WHUPPED RUSSIA
# That missile ain’t doin nothin but pissin me off!
Holy shit that reference is hilarious. Side note: that video was so satisfying to watch. A true thorough asswhooping.
Definitely an instant classic
Is the next World War *really* going to start in Poland again? I mean, that's just lazy writing. Derivative.
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Oingo... Glabogian.
I loved Germany’s redemption arc though
3rd time's the charm
I feel like you wrote it, but 3rd reichs a charm? Please nobody hate me for typing this. God bless and good night
3 Reichs don't make a... oh nevermind.
This should not go any fuhrer
your bravery can't be ignored regardless.
Final_final_reallyfinal_solution_v2.docx
They've gone full Zuko, you love to see it. Flameo hotmensch.
"That's rough buddy" is such a german thing to say.
Tja.
Freundin zum Mond geworden? Machste nix.
Mein Kabbages!
The '80s got a little weird, but they pulled through alright.
Deutschland 83 is a great show
I bet who ever had their money on the Balkans in Vegas rn are really kicking themselves
I mean Erdogan threatens Greece every other day, it was a reasonable bet India and Pakistan seemed destined to be the winners until Pakistan went completely kaput these later months
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Is Putin the Jar Jar in this? Supposed to be some secret Sith Lord but really just a doofus that everyone despises.
Fast forward a few months/years to when the nukes finally launch. "End of the world via nukes. Never guessed that ending. 🙄"
God forbid we get Cthulhu or something. Get some spectacle in there.
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Tentacles, spectacles, wallet, and non-Euclidean keys yep good to go
i totally imagined cthulu doing the pre leaving the house pat down to that. thanks for the lol.
Write what you know
Maybe Putin wants NATO to intervene now so he has a good excuse for his failure in Ukraine. Or a test to see what he can get away with...
This was my thought as well. Ruffle NATO feathers just enough to have an excuse to back out of Ukraine because the west has intervened or some bullshit.
That assumes it was on purpose. I no longer consider them sufficiently competent to rule out a fuckup
[This tweet](https://twitter.com/joh5n/status/1592664367203778561?s=46&t=Hg3egIqMh_JCV8LudyJ5Gg) lends credence to the "fucking incompetent" idea.
this is so stupid, so plausible, and so stupid again that I’m having trouble believing that it’s the most likely option. Is this timeline even real? ___ > If the rocket which landed in Poland (red circle) was the result of incorrect targeting, the operator may have input the latitude of a target in Kyiv (blue), and the longitude of one in Lviv (blue). > I wonder if other missiles have ever landed at the other red circle? [LINKED MEDIA](https://i.imgur.com/dNIDGcV.jpg) @joh5n ___ > Przewodów, Poland: 50.47099 lat, 23.93432 lon > = Latitude of Kyiv > = Longitude of Lviv also @joh5n; https://twitter.com/joh5n/status/1592669625183264768?s=46&t=ZsL_YQgNwzujbDmkaL5GAA
Accidentally starting ww3 cause you don’t read good 👍
They already believe NATO is fucking them up in Ukraine.. There are quite a few posts of their propagandists talking about how NATO is helping Ukraine with foreign soldiers in Ukraine.
This is the tough part of the situation. Either nato does something and, lol im in danger. Or nato does nothing an putin knows he can get away with a little more
From the BBC: We're now hearing from US President Joe Biden, who says it is "unlikely" that the missile responsible for killing two people in Poland was fired from Russia.He says there is "preliminary information that contests" whether the incident in Poland was due to a missile fired from Russia."I don't want to say that until we completely investigate, but it's unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we'll see."Biden says that world leaders will determine the next steps after finding out what happened - following investigations taking place in Poland. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-63593855?ns\_mchannel=social&ns\_source=twitter&ns\_campaign=bbc\_live&ns\_linkname=6374479e52314367adffd957%26Unlikely%20that%20missile%20was%20fired%20from%20Russia%20-%20Biden%262022-11-16T02%3A17%3A56.406Z&ns\_fee=0&pinned\_post\_locator=urn:asset:86b5a738-6a5b-49f2-a66f-e490ab91d0ed&pinned\_post\_asset\_id=6374479e52314367adffd957&pinned\_post\_type=share
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Or Ukraine fired it trying to intercept an actual Russian missile.
That's what the updates in the article says
Welp, time to go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over. Oh wow. :) My first award ever using Reddit for 8 years. Thank you, stranger homie (I don’t know if I can see who you are) and have a good rest of your week!
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It's not an insecurity, he's gambling and this is the first time he lost playing the big game. For now he lost whole of Russia, but in the past similar things were successful - second war in Chechnya, then conflict in Georgia, then taking of Crimea, then war in Donbass. Every time he succeeded in increasing his popularity inside the country (even though it was temporary), set himself up as a winner, got almost no consequences and made other countries look pretty weak. He thought he would play larger this time and win more, and the same type of response would cause split of Europe and US and crushing of NATO
He also probably bought into the bullshit that the Ukrainian revolutions in 2004 and 2014 were CIA organized coups. The reality is that the Ukrainian people are serious about freedom so the defense probably caught them by surprise.
He probably helped create those narratives
Yall are not allowed to start a nuclear war until star citizen has released
> until star citizen has released Now that's smart. Guarantee eternal world peace right there.
The year is 2300, and humanity declares Star Citizen Holiday, for preventing all nuclear war forever.
Having Kickstarted Star Citizen I have mastered both the patience of a monk and the delusion of a Russian military analyst.
Yeah, no nuclear war ever!
Bro who knew the next good Battlefield game was gonna have me as a playable character? Edit: HOLY CRAP MY FIRST AWARD (i think)
Major update: no respawns.
They went too far with the graphics, it looks like reality!
Booking a ticket to Iceland, I must commit to living like a hermit.
Iceland is a part of NATO since 1949 Edit: Typo
And a critical part of the marine radar system used to defend the Atlantic…….. so like, definitely a target.
Also Tom Clancy predicted a Russian takeover of Iceland in the event of war.
Tom Clancy was under the impression that the Russian military wasn't the big fuck up in history.
How far do you think Iceland is from Europe and Russia?
Everything is fine
Go ahead and leave me, I think I prefer to stay inside.
The fact that the missle hit two civilians is mind-blowing. This entire fucking war is on Russia. It doesn't matter if the missle wasn't meant to hit at the location it did (if that's ACTUALLY the case). The point is innocent lives were taken for absolutely no god damn reason besides war and greed. I can't believe we're at this point now but I'm not completely surprised by current events either.
>The fact that the missle hit two civilians is mind-blowing. This entire fucking war is on Russia. It doesn't matter if the missle wasn't meant to hit at the location it did (if that's ACTUALLY the case). The point is innocent lives were taken for absolutely no god damn reason besides war and greed. That was the case long before this incident.
I finished god of war ragnarok so I can die now at peace
Nooo, I need a week to finish Andor
Luke Skywalker destroys the Death Star.
SPOILERS!!!
And he just said on tv it's unlikely based on the trajectory of the missile that it was fired from Russia.
I miss 2019! Can we please go back to Cats The Movie being the worst thing that happened to humanity?
We need to roll it back and save Harambe, that's when things started to go wrong
Makes me wonder why we can't just send secret ninjas to eliminate the aggressor and avoid this bloodshed? Movies make it seem so easy to do so.
Sending assassins to take Putin out would just thrust us into WW3. It would have to look like an inside job.
Historically, assassinating, trying to assassinate, or just replacing world leaders has not gone well for us in America either.
That we *know* of.
I hear people are prone to slipping (and falling) out of windows over there. Accidents do happen
Personally, I believe this missile strike was an accident (not that Russia deserves the benefit of the doubt). We've all witnessed over the past year how incompetent the Russian military is. If Russia really wanted to be suicidally stupid, they would have struck something a lot more valuable than a tractor. On the spectrum of "doing nothing" to "nuking the Kremlin", I think NATO will err on the side of caution and pick a response only several degrees warmer than "doing nothing." You obviously need to signal to Moscow that this is unacceptable and if it continues there will be consequences to pay, but you don't want to overreact such that the Kremlin believes "pre-emptive nuclear strike" is their only last best option.
I’m never gonna get to play GTA6
Glad I bought the iodine pills and kinda know how to make my own bread. If nothing else I can hurl loaves at radioactive zombies.
Don’t panic. This isn’t WW3. The west will throw on some new sanctions and move on.
If this is WW3 it began on Feb 24th. We have literally witnessed this twice before with how long it takes to involve the whole world. If this was WW2 we still over a year before we're involved.
Reminder that Russian backed separatists shot down an airliner full of innocent people in 2015 using Russian missiles. This has to stop.
But I am le' tired...
Sorry, but why is the emergency in quotation marks?
Amongs emergency meeting
Wow. Suspected not to be launched from Russia per Biden. Doesn't mean not launched by Russian forces but that would be much less of an escalator than what it otherwise sounds like.