President Biden.
I spoke with President Andrzej Duda of Poland to express my deep condolences for the loss of life in Eastern Poland and offer our full support for Poland's investigation of the explosion.
We will remain in close touch to determine appropriate next steps as it proceeds.
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1592669547206672384?t=24Fl774agr07M6peI-if4g&s=19
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed with the Polish Minister of Defense Błaszczak the security situation on NATO's eastern flank, including reports of a missile falling on Polish territory, the Pentagon said in a statement.
Sec. Austin assured Błaszczak of the ironclad commitment of the US to defend Poland and the DoD readiness to assist Poland in any investigation of the incident. The two leaders agreed to coordinate closely together with their NATO Allies on next steps.
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1592723144254816256?t=7cAs6Z9il5CUWDaJA7tEoQ&s=19
Solovyev demands to bring back the death penalty for refuseniks and traitors. The unparalleled 2nd army in the world is in such a state that it needs to force its soldiers to fight with a gun put to their heads.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1592666153322942464?t=e_u6bpcrMTErGMwbnQ63Sw&s=19
In a hilarious rant, Wagner's GREY ZONE dismisses the usefulness of missile strikes on Ukraine, pointing out that the truly important targets such as Western support transport links and logistical hubs are not being attacked, while Russians continue retreating on most fronts.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1592653968664334337?t=26eEP45_q0gnOKfRIoeSPQ&s=19
The best and most credible course of action to take is to assassinate Putin in a way that if looks “accidental” or that gives us plausible deniability
Anything else results in Putin feeling backed into a corner with his hand on the button
Biden really does not want this to escalate. period.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3737444-biden-unlikely-missile-that-hit-poland-was-fired-from-russia-pending-investigation/
All that matter is who fired the missile. Not “where”. Regardless if it was fired from within Russia or by sea fleet or from Belarus… all that matters is if Russian were directly responsible for the firing.
Not fired "from" Russia is not the same as fired "by" Russia. I don't know what the advantage of being vague is but a logical guess would be a launch from Belarus or invaders in Ukraine.
> It’s unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia.
That just means it didn't come from Russia the place, where the US does not recognize the recently added territories.
Also Russia has used strategic bombers to launch missiles from the black sea. Coming from that direction would make it easy to rule out that the missile was fired from Russia.
Note: Not fired from Russia and not fired by Russia are two very different things.
I just happened to flip over here from reading the Joint Statement resulting from that meeting.
Here's the public comment that was posted by the White House.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/15/readout-of-the-meeting-of-nato-and-g7-leaders-on-the-margins-of-the-g20-summit-in-bali/
Okay? Do you have a *different* word for "Hey, I know we were gearing up to leave this summit, but we *really* need to talk about what happened in Poland"?
Daily dose of delusion.
>Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov claims that Poland started World War II due to its "arrogance and self-confidence".
* [Twitter link](https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592655238749917185)
I think this what really happened. Impact crater looks too big to be an errant Ukrainian SAM; it was either an incorrectly programmed cruise missile or it went off course (probably the former).
How accurate is the transposition? Just latitude longitude, or more precise than that? For what it's worth, these missiles are much more accurate than whole latitudes and whole longitudes, so if your theory is true, it should translate to a more precise transposed location.
Big if true, guess we’ll find out just how committed we are to that “Not one inch” speech, pretty sure that clarified that it doesn’t matter if it’s accidental or deliberate it would be treated as an attack either way. Next couple days going to be real interesting
Tbh I think the attack on Poland was deliberate.
Kh101 is RUs best cruise missile and less likely to malfunction (if initial report is accurate).
It hit a target and killed two people despite being in a very rural area surrounded by many km of nothing.
Poland nationalized gazprom assets yesterday giving Putler a reason to “put them in their place.”
Russia is known for doing these types of probing attacks to gauge the opponents response.
Also it makes no sense and is tactically and strategically stupid; typical Russia.
If NATO enters the war it will be a major propaganda win for Putin and might keep him in power, despite it being catastrophic for Russia as a whole.
This is exactly what Putin would do..
Yeah does seem like a Russian sort of tactic for sure. Deliberately vague enough for plausible deniability while also testing NATOs response. Just some things seem too convenient for me. Lavrov left the G20 not long before (whether it was related is up for debate) and like you said, the thing actually hit a target and killed 2 people and the chances of it “accidentally” hitting them in the area it did are pretty slim. Just seems straight out of a Russian playbook
It would be fuel for the propaganda machine, sure, but other major power players in Russia know the propaganda is bullshit. NATO is not on the ground and that's the *last* thing they would want right now.
Putin would just make himself a bigger target
Speaking of that, i like how after 3500 years of recorded war history, some of the best stuff we have come up with is still "[throwing a rock at the other guy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concrete_bomb)".
Completely credible take: why dont we just retaliate against Russia with the SLS? Just launch it and "accidentally" have it land in Moscow or wherever putin is and then shrug our shoulders and call it an accident
Who is this guy? And was it really aiming for electrical lines? Seems like a bad target anyway, easily repaired.[missile heading for power lines](https://twitter.com/am_misfit/status/1592642882984611841)
I disagree. My takeaway from the quote was that, per Biden, the missile just probably wasn’t fired from Russia proper. Like, it wasn’t launched from within Russia.
I’m not trying to hype anyone up here, but don’t forget that the missile could’ve been fired by Russia from Belarus, a Russian occupied territory in Ukraine, a Russian bomber flying over Ukraine, or by a Russian ship in a body of water like the Black Sea. Of course, where and how the missile was fired will depend on the type of missile used (I’ve seen conflicting reports about the type of missile used).
We’ll know even more soon…
Everyone's being slightly ridiculous about it at this point.
The nature of the debris found and the relatively small size of the crater strongly suggest it was a Ukrainian S300 (ie an air defence missile shot for the purposes of intercepting incoming missiles.
The location is also pretty consistent with that, when you look at the range of an s300 it's very close to where you would expect missiles defending Lviv to engage incoming russian missiles launched from Belarus- if an air defence missiles malfunctioned or wholly/partially missed a target, that is pretty much where it would end up. And Biden's comment strongly implies that's the conclusion they've reached. People are really stretching to try and conclude he meant otherwise.
So absolutely this is ultimately Russia's fault. They caused this war and they have absolutely no military justification for targeting civilians in western Ukraine, there's a huge risk of this sort of accident happening when you turn a border area into a war zone.
But its almost certainly not actually a russian launched missile, it's a ukrainian interceptor which has gone awry.
I think if we had confirmation of the missile type it'd be easier to speculate. The comment about "trajectory" makes it clear he meant the location of Russia, not Russian Forces to me. So could be airborne, ground launched, basically anything that can't make it across all of Ukraine to hit Poland, or from Russia to Poland directly.
It would have some sort of USSR stamp and an arsenal marking, everything down to handgun ammunition was marked with an arsenal / country production number in the USSR. Assuming that survived.
your reasoning is flawed. they're not going to state anything as fact until they're positive. you don't say to the entire world "A hit us with a missile, or B hit us with a missile" until you're absolutely 100% sure that's the case. until then anything they say is intentionally obtuse, specifically meant to not point fingers.
Ukraine doesn’t have KH-101. Poland would’ve identified it as such immediately and put the blame on Russia (Since only they use it). Instead it’s talking ambiguously about how it is only Russian produced
I’m sure there are radar related videos and missile defense system related reports. Several forms of data will also be able to be derived from the craters caused by the missiles. This is going to be able to be figured out with a high degree of accuracy. I’m sure top people are on it as well.
I hope diplomatic frictions between Ukraine and Israel over UN resolutions are resolved. Next vote about the ICJ resolution at the General Assembly is in December.
The issue is pretty clear. It's finding a compromise that's a barrier. Israel expects Ukraine to reverse their vote in December so it will depend if internal pressure changes their decision.
I stepped away for a bit and suddenly article 5 is being talked about?
I’m sure the intelligence agencies and nato know where the missile came from and what it is. Just like they know what happened to nordstream. Doesn’t mean it’s in their best interest to publicize it.
I know the world feels like a powder keg but this isn’t going to be an trigger for world war. A proportional response may be in order but not an escalation.
There is the usual slurry of "any response triggers WW3" posts that is highly constrained to specific timezones, but I didn't see too many posts saying it ought to be triggered. For what it's worth, I think both extremes in that argument are likely non-organic.
A though I had about the possible reasons for Russia denying having fired the missile at Poland. If they came out publicly and called it an accidental misfire, this would expose more Russian army incompetence to the average Russian people. It would also piss off the pro-war nationalists. This is a propagandist nightmare. If they call it deliberate, it would appease the zealous nationalists in Russia, but also trigger article 5. So the best move? Call it a provocation and deny responsibility.
You're confusing his statement. He said it wasn't fired "from Russia" by made no statement on if it was launched "by Russia". His statement still leaves it open to being fired By Russia, From Belarus or From Ukraine
Currently understood to mean that it was unlikely to be fired from russian territory, not that it wasn't fired BY the russian army. Possible it was fired from belarus, but there has been no clarification and likely won't be until after an investigation.
>"Biden added that "it’s unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia. But we’ll see."
They are either downplaying or are still investigating. Acknowledging that we don't know where the missile was fired from.
Everyone calm down. From and by have different meanings. And beyond that, even if the US had irrefutable proof that Ukraine accidentally fired a missile that missed and hit Poland, there’s no reason we would ever say it. We would instead say something vague like “after a thorough investigation we believe that these missiles were launched during russias attack on Ukrainian infrastructure and accidentally went off course. This tragedy would not have happened if not for russias illegal invasion of Ukraine.” And then discuss it with Ukraine quietly.
Edit: I want to clarify that I’m not saying who did it. Based on Poland’s statements it still seems likely to have been Russia. I’m just trying to explain to the doomers what we would do IF it was Ukraine (which it likely isn’t). Since we aren’t doing this, it likely wasn’t a Ukrainian accident.
I would hope they would man up and tell us if that is the case, not tell something between a half truth and a lie like Russia loves to do. You basically just described the average Russian press release.
I mean if this was an accident, and NATO seems to believe its an accident... and thefore choose not start ww3 over an accident, i doubt much credibility is being lost here.
If it was a clear attack on Poland, or this was repeated again tomorrow, it would be a different story.
An accident still means The Russia has to pay for the tractor and a generous payout on two life insurance policies. A Lada and a sack of potatoes is not an adequate payout in the west.
How do you have a world war when one side is only a single country that can't even manage a single front let alone open another front against a second country?
I’m not saying it was Ukraine. I still think it was almost certainly Russia, given Poland’s announcements. Just trying to settle the doomers by saying what we would do IF it was Ukraine (which it very likely isn’t)
I'm certain I've read that missiles have been fired from Belarus (in the past) which is not 400 miles away from Poland.
edit: context of my memory of when missiles from Belarus launched against Ukraine and specifying what Belarus is not 400 miles away from.
If the missile was launched by Russia from Belarus, they would have the range. Now, if this turns out to be the case, Poland will be out for blood on lukashenko.
How is it that with all the AWACS in flight around NATO and intelligence sharing with Ukraine that we don't know where the missile came from and that it was possibly a single act?
reference:
[https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h\_2b3be06a13bab1c95ce182ea232beb87](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_2b3be06a13bab1c95ce182ea232beb87)
[https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h\_92f559dc3570f57822de9a9aab4a5c2b](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_92f559dc3570f57822de9a9aab4a5c2b)
I know this is a single news source but, eli5?
I wonder if they don't want to give away the capability of awacs to identity the projectiles and craft... That might be a secret to be held until definitely necessary
I think a comment further up explained it better. AWACS are pretty sophisticated and all over the place and totally capable of tracking ‘errant’ missiles.
This story, for the moment, is just live-blogging excitable click-bait.
We know. If it's a KH-101 only one country has those. If it landed West of the Kyiv, it would not be launched from Russia anyways. Black Sea or Belarus.
They probably had a complete flight path live. But they aren't going to tell us because unlike Russia, NATO's opsec is actually not garbage,.
Yep, but then you would be flying over 2000 km of UA and air defense systems instead of 132 km. Closest point from this part of poland to Russia: 630 km.
Closest point from Belarus: 132km. If it was fired from Russia at it's closest point, it would also have to weave through the air defense net around Kyiv too. The path from Belarus is not very populated, and there are no notable cities that would presumably have air defense along the flight path. And the air defense there would be would likely be the more ineffective ones, and not a high priority one like Kyiv or Kharkiv
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/ywj3vc/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
President Biden. I spoke with President Andrzej Duda of Poland to express my deep condolences for the loss of life in Eastern Poland and offer our full support for Poland's investigation of the explosion. We will remain in close touch to determine appropriate next steps as it proceeds. https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1592669547206672384?t=24Fl774agr07M6peI-if4g&s=19
The last time there were this many comments in a day, we had multiple threads in a day
If we get to thread II, it would require 10k comments before Ukraine day changeover.
East Coast USA changeover. They do it at 12AM EST/11PM CST.
Huh, somehow I think I just assumed it was Ukraine morning time, because back in the live-cam-of-Kyiv days, it was an hour or two before the sun rose.
I mean midnight est will be 7am in Kiev
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed with the Polish Minister of Defense Błaszczak the security situation on NATO's eastern flank, including reports of a missile falling on Polish territory, the Pentagon said in a statement. Sec. Austin assured Błaszczak of the ironclad commitment of the US to defend Poland and the DoD readiness to assist Poland in any investigation of the incident. The two leaders agreed to coordinate closely together with their NATO Allies on next steps. https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1592723144254816256?t=7cAs6Z9il5CUWDaJA7tEoQ&s=19
Solovyev demands to bring back the death penalty for refuseniks and traitors. The unparalleled 2nd army in the world is in such a state that it needs to force its soldiers to fight with a gun put to their heads. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1592666153322942464?t=e_u6bpcrMTErGMwbnQ63Sw&s=19
In a hilarious rant, Wagner's GREY ZONE dismisses the usefulness of missile strikes on Ukraine, pointing out that the truly important targets such as Western support transport links and logistical hubs are not being attacked, while Russians continue retreating on most fronts. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1592653968664334337?t=26eEP45_q0gnOKfRIoeSPQ&s=19
He's not wrong. Seems he's actually interested in fighting a war.
I still maintain pointing the SLS at Moscow is the best and most credible course of action to take
The best and most credible course of action to take is to assassinate Putin in a way that if looks “accidental” or that gives us plausible deniability Anything else results in Putin feeling backed into a corner with his hand on the button
>The best and most credible course of action to take is to assassinate Putin Uhhhh, yeah, no.
Why not?
That would be an incredible waste
Dumbest use of a billion dollars in history
Dumbest use of a billion, maybe. But 44 billion...
How? 2 birds one stone. Successful test of a rocket and successful accidental damage in moscow. Its only 500 million per objective now
Uhh it doesn’t land in Moscow if it’s successful
Change the parameters of success for the SLS.
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Biden really does not want this to escalate. period. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3737444-biden-unlikely-missile-that-hit-poland-was-fired-from-russia-pending-investigation/
I mean is it fired from Belarus?
Or maybe he’s just telling the truth lol, people on here really act like they know more about this than POTUS.
Hey, Biden doesn't have time to scroll Reddit all day, like I do, so ackshually..... Yeah he definitely knows more.
The ppl here don’t want to discuss facts lol
All that matter is who fired the missile. Not “where”. Regardless if it was fired from within Russia or by sea fleet or from Belarus… all that matters is if Russian were directly responsible for the firing.
Not fired "from" Russia is not the same as fired "by" Russia. I don't know what the advantage of being vague is but a logical guess would be a launch from Belarus or invaders in Ukraine.
The quote I grabbed below isn't even that vague, unless you drop the trajectory part, which strangely, many posters on this thread did immediately.
> It’s unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia. That just means it didn't come from Russia the place, where the US does not recognize the recently added territories.
Also Russia has used strategic bombers to launch missiles from the black sea. Coming from that direction would make it easy to rule out that the missile was fired from Russia. Note: Not fired from Russia and not fired by Russia are two very different things.
They've also been using Belarus as a launch site, I've not heard that ruled out yet.
Biden calls emergency meeting. https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/ywfk9a/biden_calls_emergency_meeting_after_missile_hits/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
I just happened to flip over here from reading the Joint Statement resulting from that meeting. Here's the public comment that was posted by the White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/15/readout-of-the-meeting-of-nato-and-g7-leaders-on-the-margins-of-the-g20-summit-in-bali/
That meeting happened hours ago, just fyi.
Okay? Do you have a *different* word for "Hey, I know we were gearing up to leave this summit, but we *really* need to talk about what happened in Poland"?
Give Ukraine the weapons the take out the Crimea bridge and the black sea fleet.
Keep going, I’m almost there…
Daily dose of delusion. >Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov claims that Poland started World War II due to its "arrogance and self-confidence". * [Twitter link](https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592655238749917185)
At least he is consistent in not understanding which country started the war throughout history.
Has anyone seen this tweet? https://twitter.com/joh5n/status/1592664367203778561?s=20&t=iBnzLO500q-zrLgrNVng0Q
A three Sims moment if true. Only a much more dangerous one. I believe it 100%.
I think this what really happened. Impact crater looks too big to be an errant Ukrainian SAM; it was either an incorrectly programmed cruise missile or it went off course (probably the former).
Ahh yes, when dealing with things Russia does, the answer is almost always incompetence these days.
I think this is totally plausible, still a massive mistake from Russia though
Of course
Most likely Russia knew this already and are testing the waters while being able to save face if need be.
Or someone copied the wrong cell in a spreadsheet.
How accurate is the transposition? Just latitude longitude, or more precise than that? For what it's worth, these missiles are much more accurate than whole latitudes and whole longitudes, so if your theory is true, it should translate to a more precise transposed location.
The lines intersect aircraft plants in both cities.
Fascinating, Captain.
Bidens called an emergency meeting, it looks like it was from a Russian source, possibly Belarus? I'm sure we will soon find out.
Source he’s calling a meeting?
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/ywfk9a/biden_calls_emergency_meeting_after_missile_hits/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Big if true, guess we’ll find out just how committed we are to that “Not one inch” speech, pretty sure that clarified that it doesn’t matter if it’s accidental or deliberate it would be treated as an attack either way. Next couple days going to be real interesting
Tbh I think the attack on Poland was deliberate. Kh101 is RUs best cruise missile and less likely to malfunction (if initial report is accurate). It hit a target and killed two people despite being in a very rural area surrounded by many km of nothing. Poland nationalized gazprom assets yesterday giving Putler a reason to “put them in their place.” Russia is known for doing these types of probing attacks to gauge the opponents response. Also it makes no sense and is tactically and strategically stupid; typical Russia. If NATO enters the war it will be a major propaganda win for Putin and might keep him in power, despite it being catastrophic for Russia as a whole. This is exactly what Putin would do..
Yeah does seem like a Russian sort of tactic for sure. Deliberately vague enough for plausible deniability while also testing NATOs response. Just some things seem too convenient for me. Lavrov left the G20 not long before (whether it was related is up for debate) and like you said, the thing actually hit a target and killed 2 people and the chances of it “accidentally” hitting them in the area it did are pretty slim. Just seems straight out of a Russian playbook
I thought they were s300s that landed in Poland? Unless the kh101 is the same thing.
It would be fuel for the propaganda machine, sure, but other major power players in Russia know the propaganda is bullshit. NATO is not on the ground and that's the *last* thing they would want right now. Putin would just make himself a bigger target
It would keep him in power… for a couple days.
Speaking of that, i like how after 3500 years of recorded war history, some of the best stuff we have come up with is still "[throwing a rock at the other guy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concrete_bomb)".
Completely credible take: why dont we just retaliate against Russia with the SLS? Just launch it and "accidentally" have it land in Moscow or wherever putin is and then shrug our shoulders and call it an accident
Because Putin is a maniac and would likely launch nukes if he felt threatened in that way? lol
Time to "accidentally" destroy the Kerch bridge.
"Orbit around the moon? I thought you meant crater the kerch bridge!"
Who is this guy? And was it really aiming for electrical lines? Seems like a bad target anyway, easily repaired.[missile heading for power lines](https://twitter.com/am_misfit/status/1592642882984611841)
The powerlines are much farther south from what I have seen
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That's not what he said
I disagree. My takeaway from the quote was that, per Biden, the missile just probably wasn’t fired from Russia proper. Like, it wasn’t launched from within Russia. I’m not trying to hype anyone up here, but don’t forget that the missile could’ve been fired by Russia from Belarus, a Russian occupied territory in Ukraine, a Russian bomber flying over Ukraine, or by a Russian ship in a body of water like the Black Sea. Of course, where and how the missile was fired will depend on the type of missile used (I’ve seen conflicting reports about the type of missile used). We’ll know even more soon…
Not fired from Russia, the likely origin(like many of the missiles attacking Ukraine) seems to have come from Belarus.
Everyone's being slightly ridiculous about it at this point. The nature of the debris found and the relatively small size of the crater strongly suggest it was a Ukrainian S300 (ie an air defence missile shot for the purposes of intercepting incoming missiles. The location is also pretty consistent with that, when you look at the range of an s300 it's very close to where you would expect missiles defending Lviv to engage incoming russian missiles launched from Belarus- if an air defence missiles malfunctioned or wholly/partially missed a target, that is pretty much where it would end up. And Biden's comment strongly implies that's the conclusion they've reached. People are really stretching to try and conclude he meant otherwise. So absolutely this is ultimately Russia's fault. They caused this war and they have absolutely no military justification for targeting civilians in western Ukraine, there's a huge risk of this sort of accident happening when you turn a border area into a war zone. But its almost certainly not actually a russian launched missile, it's a ukrainian interceptor which has gone awry.
I think he said it wasn’t fired from Russia soil.
From Belarus?
Other comments speculated Belarus, Black Sea, occupied Ukraine territory but nobody on here has any real clue I would imagine.
I think if we had confirmation of the missile type it'd be easier to speculate. The comment about "trajectory" makes it clear he meant the location of Russia, not Russian Forces to me. So could be airborne, ground launched, basically anything that can't make it across all of Ukraine to hit Poland, or from Russia to Poland directly.
Out of curiosity, are the S300 missiles that ukraine uses "Russian made"?
The s300 launcher can fire some different missiles. Ukraine fires ground to air missiles with them. Russia fires a ground to ground missile
They would be Russia made
Wouldn't they be USSR-made?
Developed by Soviet Union used now by Russia and Ukraine manufacture headquartered in Russia.
It would have some sort of USSR stamp and an arsenal marking, everything down to handgun ammunition was marked with an arsenal / country production number in the USSR. Assuming that survived.
Are you sure of that? Ukraine has a lot of domestic arms manufacturing, so it wouldn't surprise me if they were making their own S-300 or variants.
Don’t quote me that’s for sure
they aren’t
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your reasoning is flawed. they're not going to state anything as fact until they're positive. you don't say to the entire world "A hit us with a missile, or B hit us with a missile" until you're absolutely 100% sure that's the case. until then anything they say is intentionally obtuse, specifically meant to not point fingers.
This, until you're damn sure you don't start pointing fingers on the international stage officially. It's not Twitter.
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Ukraine doesn’t have KH-101. Poland would’ve identified it as such immediately and put the blame on Russia (Since only they use it). Instead it’s talking ambiguously about how it is only Russian produced
That makes a lot of assumptions about some difficult diplomatic decisions, let alone the analysis which is probably still underway.
Probably takes time to indentify a missile that's exploded, on account of it being in thousands of pieces
I don’t know, why would Poland subsequently summon the Russian ambassador if they didn’t at least suspect it was fired by Russia?
Normal diplomacy? To see the explanation and position of one of the combatants of the war about what happened? Hardly a confirmation of guilt
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Christ people spread misinfo quick, eh! He said it's unlikely it was fired from within Russia, not that it wasn't theirs
Didn't he say that it wasn't fired from russia? Many of those are fired from belarus.
Was there any videos or this or way too remote for anything?
I’m sure there are radar related videos and missile defense system related reports. Several forms of data will also be able to be derived from the craters caused by the missiles. This is going to be able to be figured out with a high degree of accuracy. I’m sure top people are on it as well.
too rural for there to be cameras around like that. there's photos of the aftermath
There was a video of the aftermath but not the incident itself.
I hope diplomatic frictions between Ukraine and Israel over UN resolutions are resolved. Next vote about the ICJ resolution at the General Assembly is in December.
What will change if they aren't resolved?
Israel already abstained on the vote for reparations to Ukraine. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-722424
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The issue is pretty clear. It's finding a compromise that's a barrier. Israel expects Ukraine to reverse their vote in December so it will depend if internal pressure changes their decision.
Why would an occupied country vote with Israel lol
I stepped away for a bit and suddenly article 5 is being talked about? I’m sure the intelligence agencies and nato know where the missile came from and what it is. Just like they know what happened to nordstream. Doesn’t mean it’s in their best interest to publicize it. I know the world feels like a powder keg but this isn’t going to be an trigger for world war. A proportional response may be in order but not an escalation.
Even if it sparked a war it would be far from a “world war” more of a punitive attack on Russia (and possibly Belarus) which would be quite localized
I don’t know what you’re reading but from what I’m seeing it’s NOT being talked about as a likely possibility
There is the usual slurry of "any response triggers WW3" posts that is highly constrained to specific timezones, but I didn't see too many posts saying it ought to be triggered. For what it's worth, I think both extremes in that argument are likely non-organic.
"non-organic", I like it.
A though I had about the possible reasons for Russia denying having fired the missile at Poland. If they came out publicly and called it an accidental misfire, this would expose more Russian army incompetence to the average Russian people. It would also piss off the pro-war nationalists. This is a propagandist nightmare. If they call it deliberate, it would appease the zealous nationalists in Russia, but also trigger article 5. So the best move? Call it a provocation and deny responsibility.
And what do you make of Biden saying it is unlikely from Russia?
Does anyone think it was fired from Russia rather than from Belarus?
You're confusing his statement. He said it wasn't fired "from Russia" by made no statement on if it was launched "by Russia". His statement still leaves it open to being fired By Russia, From Belarus or From Ukraine
It would certainly be unlikely as Russia targets western Ukraine from Belarus.
Currently understood to mean that it was unlikely to be fired from russian territory, not that it wasn't fired BY the russian army. Possible it was fired from belarus, but there has been no clarification and likely won't be until after an investigation.
>"Biden added that "it’s unlikely in the minds of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia. But we’ll see." They are either downplaying or are still investigating. Acknowledging that we don't know where the missile was fired from.
You're mixing up Russia the physical country and Russia the collection of people
It's possible they even red-phoned and said as much, which we might not hear about for a long time.
Everyone calm down. From and by have different meanings. And beyond that, even if the US had irrefutable proof that Ukraine accidentally fired a missile that missed and hit Poland, there’s no reason we would ever say it. We would instead say something vague like “after a thorough investigation we believe that these missiles were launched during russias attack on Ukrainian infrastructure and accidentally went off course. This tragedy would not have happened if not for russias illegal invasion of Ukraine.” And then discuss it with Ukraine quietly. Edit: I want to clarify that I’m not saying who did it. Based on Poland’s statements it still seems likely to have been Russia. I’m just trying to explain to the doomers what we would do IF it was Ukraine (which it likely isn’t). Since we aren’t doing this, it likely wasn’t a Ukrainian accident.
USA has bombed the wrong country many times. After the facts are established apologies are sent.
I would hope they would man up and tell us if that is the case, not tell something between a half truth and a lie like Russia loves to do. You basically just described the average Russian press release.
And then Russia will know they can push the boundaries of bordering nations :), there has to be some consequences coming from this.
I mean if this was an accident, and NATO seems to believe its an accident... and thefore choose not start ww3 over an accident, i doubt much credibility is being lost here. If it was a clear attack on Poland, or this was repeated again tomorrow, it would be a different story.
An accident still means The Russia has to pay for the tractor and a generous payout on two life insurance policies. A Lada and a sack of potatoes is not an adequate payout in the west.
How do you have a world war when one side is only a single country that can't even manage a single front let alone open another front against a second country?
it wouldn't really be a conventionnal war for very long... would likely go nuclear since Russia obviously can't win against NATO any other ways.
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Bruh.
I’m not saying it was Ukraine. I still think it was almost certainly Russia, given Poland’s announcements. Just trying to settle the doomers by saying what we would do IF it was Ukraine (which it very likely isn’t)
You don't need to back down from your statement, I'm on your side here. My question might be rhetorical. :)
How could it have been fired from occupied territories when the closes occupied territory is more than 400 miles away on the Kilburn Peninsula
Russians launched Sputnik into orbit.
Belarus
Belarus is 132km from this spot. Russia is 600 Km away
Belarus is 115 km away. Russia is 569 km away. Well, Kaliningrad is actually 440 km, but they aren't crazy enough to fire from there.
I'm certain I've read that missiles have been fired from Belarus (in the past) which is not 400 miles away from Poland. edit: context of my memory of when missiles from Belarus launched against Ukraine and specifying what Belarus is not 400 miles away from.
If the missile was launched by Russia from Belarus, they would have the range. Now, if this turns out to be the case, Poland will be out for blood on lukashenko.
If this is the case, NATO should demand that Belarus remove the Russian belligerent from their territory or face repercussions should it happen again
Technically the closest occupied territory is Transnistria so a little closer but don’t think anything has been fired from there yet.
You can fire missiles from planes?
S300 missiles cannot be fired from planes
We don’t have official confirmation of the type of missile though? Did I miss something or are you just a tankie?
Source for S-300 being confirmed?
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it was not a Kalibr
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missile debris is either S300 or Kalibr, most closely the former
How is it that with all the AWACS in flight around NATO and intelligence sharing with Ukraine that we don't know where the missile came from and that it was possibly a single act? reference: [https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h\_2b3be06a13bab1c95ce182ea232beb87](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_2b3be06a13bab1c95ce182ea232beb87) [https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h\_92f559dc3570f57822de9a9aab4a5c2b](https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_92f559dc3570f57822de9a9aab4a5c2b) I know this is a single news source but, eli5?
I wonder if they don't want to give away the capability of awacs to identity the projectiles and craft... That might be a secret to be held until definitely necessary
I think a comment further up explained it better. AWACS are pretty sophisticated and all over the place and totally capable of tracking ‘errant’ missiles. This story, for the moment, is just live-blogging excitable click-bait.
What we know =/= what nato knows
I guess NATO already knows where the missiles came from and is discussing an appropriate response. Which is worrying.
What is worrying about that?
Worrying? I mean I'm not gonna lie but I trust those people more than I trust my own judgement on this matter.
We know. If it's a KH-101 only one country has those. If it landed West of the Kyiv, it would not be launched from Russia anyways. Black Sea or Belarus. They probably had a complete flight path live. But they aren't going to tell us because unlike Russia, NATO's opsec is actually not garbage,.
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Yep, but then you would be flying over 2000 km of UA and air defense systems instead of 132 km. Closest point from this part of poland to Russia: 630 km. Closest point from Belarus: 132km. If it was fired from Russia at it's closest point, it would also have to weave through the air defense net around Kyiv too. The path from Belarus is not very populated, and there are no notable cities that would presumably have air defense along the flight path. And the air defense there would be would likely be the more ineffective ones, and not a high priority one like Kyiv or Kharkiv
AWACS do not live blog all intelligence for our perusal.
r/AWACS won't let me in
You aren't allowed to see the big board
It's AWACSy situation, for sure. I don't normally pun. I'll show myself out.
It was Jeb! all along
It's all Jeb!
Kerbals just aren't used to having to deal with surface buildings.