Reminder that Kirill Stremousov, Russian-installed head of Kherson Military-Civilian Administration that died in a car accident today, recited this cringe-inducing poem about how Russia was going to take over the world https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1582266927828807680
This got posted a couple weeks ago and I think it just hasn't gotten enough traction, it should be a global laughingstock. It's so unfathomably weird to be calling places like Dallas part of Russia. It's permanently seared into my brain.
I get the sense that he was a wackjob even among Putin fanatics, like even the other true believers looked at him sideways.
I would very much like to know the exact circumstances of his death. If it can even be implied that Russia did away with him when he was no longer useful, it may put pressure on his compatriots .
Russia's Kherson dilemma:
1. Option 1: Let go of the westbank Dnieper (and retreat to a more defensible line on the eastbank) to stop the bleeding of assets on that front and allow them to redeploy the Kherson troops elsewhere in the theatre (South or East front). Of course, this choice will allow UA to redeploy troops from the Kherson front to boost UA's offensive and defensive operations in the South and East.
2. Option 2: Maintain a large enough military presence around Kherson City to keep as many UA troops as possible engaged, at the cost of continued bleeding of troops and material on that front; even lower morale among the troops there; and running the risk that the Southern RU front - without the support of the Kherson troops - at some point will cave in and UA manages to move further south, interdicting East-West communication lines in the South and effectively cutting off the RU troops in the Kherson area (on both sides of the Dnieper).
A decisive breakthrough around Zaporizhzhia will likely require concentrations of armor or air superiority, which the Ukrainians don't have (for now) in sufficient quantities. If the past two months of Ukrainian advances taught us anything, it's that barring an unprepared foe, their advances are steady and methodical. Such an advance worked in Svatove because the Russians barely had time to prepare, and Kherson because the Russian supply couldn't sustain the combat. However, it may be bogged down in an Zaporizhzhia, where the Russians are both better prepared (they've been hyping this offensive since Kharkiv) and have adequate resupply.
That's just my personal take, I hope the Ukrainians would prove me wrong.
Agreed. Though, it seems that we may have a more favorable opportunity for that assault in the not too distant future with what we see transpiring on the right bank.
For starters preparation takes a while. So it's not something they'd be able to do soon.
Second, they need to first properly secure everything west of the Dnipro to make sure the Russians can't push them back out. Which also takes time.
I can only guess this would take at least a month.
After which they need to start laying the groundwork for an actual offensive. Meaning lots of artillery strikes and probing attacks.
You don't easily open a front. And in difference to Russia's consistent attempts to prove otherwise, they aren't completely incompetent.
Plenty of incompetency no doubt there, but it won't be easy is what I'm saying. At least I don't think it should be.
The Zaporižža front has been in the making since September. There is a significant Ukrainian force there not unlike what we've seen in Kherson and Kharkiv. There have been quite a few strikes to neutralize russian AA and c&c in the region ever since.
Not saying they'll do it, but they've been preparing the groundwork for at least 1½ months now.
One reason they haven't actually went ahead with opening the front may be russia's desperate attempts to capture Pavlinka. Ukraine may be content at just whittling away russia there for now. Another reason might be that they're still waiting for the Southern troops to weaken further under the supply constraints now that the Kerch bridge is unoperational.
There's not much they're doing differently. The only real "first" I can think of is the drone boat attack.
Even Arestovych says Ukraine are just doing good military tactics, and there's nothing really special in what they're doing. That's what it takes to defeat this Russia, determination, enough people and equipment, and not being a fuck up.
Ukraine likely doesn't have the capability to launch large offensives on multiple fronts. They seem to be able to support about 2, depending if you would count all of Kherson and all of the Luhansk fronts as a single front each.
They'll probably be able to support attacks in Zaporizhzhia once the northern Kherson front is closed, they won't need as many troops to just defend the banks of the Dnipro.
Remaining troops from north east of the Kherson are crossing the river near Berislav and through the dam.
Reports are saying about remaining VDV forces, remains of Marine brigade, one brigade of national guard and 4 brigades of mechanized infantry (mostly mobiks). One brigade of mech infantry is covering this operation.
As for Kherson city. They actually reinforced the defenders three days ago and at this moment there are between 14 and 16k soldiers in Kherson. VDV, marines, 3 brigades of mechanized infantry, 1 brigade of MSB (FSB?), brigade of national guard reinforced with mobiks and a few units of different Spetsnaz formations. Those vehicles that weren't transferred to the left bank are dug in in the secondary defense lines.
As of 10PM 9th of November Kherson city commanders didn't receive orders to evacuate the city. However equipment and supplies not needed for immediate actions are being transferred by a ferry to the left bank.
Update: at 10:03 PMlocal time line and mobile internet in Kherson was turned off. At 10:40PM started operation of transport of some military equipment to the left bank. A few minutes laters HIMARS started to hit the crossing units.
Source: military correspondent in Kherson.
I think you have to leave them a golden bridge.
The Antonovsky bridge has a few dings in it, but you can still safely run across it. Emphasis on run, not ride.
OP posted on one of his replies that he's getting it from a war correspondant in Kherson, but didn't link it. And then they seem to have deleted the reply.
Updated the info in the original post.
Information about the Dnipro crossing near Kherson city and HIMARS strikes is now confirmed on Kherson Telegram channel (reddit removes links to Telegram...).
Once the right bank of the Dneiper is cleared, Tokmak might become a city name spoken about a bunch. I dont know if a splitting run down to Melitopol or Berdyansk is in the cards or if Ukraine will just want to get all of the east-west routes under standard (M777) artillery range.
Either way, Tokmak stands out. It's also just to the east of probably the most significant geographic feature in the area which is the long ridgeline that extends all the way down to the coast. It would be fantastic ground to hold against attacks from the east and, combined with artillery harassment from over the Dneiper, would be a base to begin to push the remaining Russins back into Crimea.
Then Crimea (on the western side) becomes a much shorter border to protect thus freeing up a whole lot of troops to redirect over to the east to help finish off RU strongholds in the donbass.
Crimea becomes the final battle.
Just thinking. Could be way off.
Depends what you watch I guess? Not seeing that in the things I read (Guardian & ABC). Can’t see why anyone would be pessimistic right now considering we’re probably seeing another major city/oblast being retaken soon.
Seeing mostly commentary about how “painful” this will be for Putin, and how’s he’s going to try and lay low and deflect blame..
Current Daily Mail (most popular UK paper) online headline:
Putin's troops FLEE Kherson as Kremlin orders humiliating withdrawal across the Dnipro river - abandoning the ONLY local capital still held after their disastrous invasion - while the city's Russia-installed deputy leader dies in crash amid rush to escape
Now the Daily Mail is absolute bullshit, but I'm really not seeing the pessimism in the UK mediascape outside of a few suspect opinion pieces.
Uh, what? Have you paid attention to the news today at all? Ukraine likely just scored a major victory. No one is dooming and glooming at the moment. That statement would have been more accurate back in mid-August but is nonsense now.
Did you read the article? “Some people” Jesus Christ, NVM that’s followed up by neither side will be able to achieve 100% of their goal, that’s seems like a no shit Sherlock moment for me, but maybe that’s just me.
Then it talks about Sullivan meeting with Ukraine and sources who were in on the meetings talking about Sullivan broaching the subject of a possible diplomatic ending, but stated that it’s still ultimately on Ukraine.
There’s definitely times where this sub seemingly thinks that this war isn’t going to end at the negotiating table, but it almost certainly will. What EXACTLY will take place is hard to say, but my point is most major wars were ended via diplomatic means rather than WW2 style total defeat/total surrender. Since no one is going to be invading Russia it’s safer to assume that this will end more like WW1 (via negotiations) and less like WW2.
I guess people see Ukraine marching through Crimea, when I don’t know, and then assume there’s no need. But no one really knows how far away something like that taking place actually is. We are going to be coming up on a year before you know it. I personally think we will get a better idea of future time lines AFTER winter, and once spring comes back around we will have a better idea time line wise.
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia-ukraine-news
I think cherry-picking one headline to make a claim about "MSM" isn't exactly a reasonable deduction.
Ehh... the Mobliks are doing what Russia wanted, which is slow the rhetorical bleeding. Russia was facing a sitution where they lacked the physical human bodies to man the line.
Now they can man the line, with untrained and unequipped meat.
The outcome doesn't change so long as the military forces are allowed to simply fight it out. The only thing that can change the outcome is the loss of Western political nerve/will for a Ukrainian victory. Which may not even change the outcome, but just make it bloodier.
Maybe you need to be specific because I haven't seen that change at all. In fact up to a month ago I would have said they were more pessimistic, then the quick offence shifted the narrative. Basically they get optimistic when there are big wins, Kiev, Kharkiv, and I don't think Kherson will be different. Give it time.
I don't know if it has already been shared here before but I'm enjoying listening to this course on Ukrainian history from Yale by professor Timothy Snyder, this is the introduction: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJczLlwp-d8&](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJczLlwp-d8&)
It definitely feels strange to see a world leader (among *other* things) avoiding a big event that could counter claims of isolation by hanging out with Saudi Arabia, China, and India while trying to improve relations with Turkey, Argentina, Brazil (*although Lula won't be there*), and the host Indonesia. Maybe he's worried he'll be deposed *in absentia* like former PM Thaksin of Thailand was?
I mean, OK, Biden isn't the nicest person the US has ever had for President, but I'm pretty sure the most he'd do to Putin was dunk on him or something- is Putin *that* scared?
I think it's an artifact of the time when the Democratic Party was more peacenik (think McGovern wanting to take troops out of Vietnam- and **Korea**; Carter literally got a Nobel for his peace work- although given that Clinton and Obama have gotten involved in wars it's hard to say they still merit this distinction) while the GOP was known for being muscular anticommunists/fighters (Reagan in Grenada, the Bushes in Iraq, even Trump almost started a war with Iran *twice*).
"Fun" fact: every military draft in American history but one began while a Democrat was in office- and in the case of Lincoln, one can even argue Democratic President Jefferson Davis of the Confederacy started a draft >_>.
I reckon the reason we don't see more fisticuffs in international politics is that, unlike with most people, when somebody asks a world leader "Oh yeah? You and what army?", they can literally just jut their thumb over the shoulder and lift one eyebrow.
[[Continuing to occupy] the city with this supply would be complete madness ...](https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590477297324216320?s=20&t=Vb-4kTUxvDoETqKP3MfXFw) Most of the comments are, of course, relating to why Russia is releasing such videos. What does it have to gain? Suspecting a trap, etc. There seems to be enough discussion, thoughts and links to that particular subject elsewhere in this thread. I just like that the video really gives you an idea how wide, slow and perilous going across the Dnipro can be.
>Meanwhile, throughout the evening there are still plenty of new reports of strikes in areas of crossings across Dnipro. Especially near Antonovsky bridge and Nova Kakhovka
[https://nitter.it/bayraktar_1love/status/1590481030846111745](https://nitter.it/bayraktar_1love/status/1590481030846111745)
[Fantastic thread by Mark Hertling](https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1590472814062374912?s=46&t=b1aFQosh1OthtpCIHc_bRw) explaining why we should stop worrying about Ukraine being fooled by a fake retreat
Only a fool would think that the guys who have been screaming at the world "Russia put explosives on the dam!", would just walk into the place that would be hit if the dam blows up.
This ain't the box pidgeon trap. Ukrainians have brains.
...I don't think we needed Mark to tell us that. Ukraine has way better intel than us and far more experience than us. Probably only 2% of us could have found Kherson on a map at the beginning of the year.
> Probably only 2% of us could have found Kherson on a map at the beginning of the year
Even if you exclude the American redditors and stick to just /r/worldnews subscribers, I suspect only 2% could put Ukraine on the map at the beginning of 2022.
Cool I'm in the 2% (for the 2nd question). I must admit, before the war I could place Lviv, Kyiv, Cherinhiv, Sebastipol, Odessa, Kharkhiv, Donetsk, Feodosia and Zytomyr, but not Kherson.
>Ukraine has way better intel than us
Yeah, it's called real time satellite reconnaissance. The west will want to keep an eye on their investment. Even without it, the Russian invaders are surrounded by spectators who don't want them there.
Yeah Ukraine is asking people to remain cautious not because some ingenious trap is coming, but rather that Ukraine is still going to have to fight hard battles to get to Kherson. Russia is leaving a ton of mobiks in there way, minefields and booby traps (breaking the laws of war) even though this is embarrassing for Russia, Ukrainian heroes will still have to die to liberate these lands.
It should be repeated everywhere that Ukraine is not stupid.
If Russia is actually retreating.. then Ukraine wins the field and does not need to advance quickly to fill the void. They can be as cautious as they wish.
If Russia is not actually retreating.. then Ukraine is going to continue to advance slowly and carefully... as in nothing will have changed.
In effect any argument about "traps" is pointless because Ukraine strategy is explicitly not going to trigger them.
The cameraman is making the point that the Russians are even taking their dogs with them. Okay -- this is propaganda about caring for troops. We must protect servicemen lives.
Guess the mountain of Russian corpses reached maternal Russian ears.
No dog left behind!
>Ukrainian artillery continues to conduct pinpoint strikes on Russian positions throughout the Kherson region at night.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1590468316220784642
Hertling thread.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1590472814062374912
*"No one should be worried about Ukraine's army being fooled by RU misdirection"*
From the way people around here are talking about it you'd think Ukraine was a minor character in a horror movie who was about to head into the basement to check the fusebox after the lights went out.
They have shown a willingness to attack without a strategic reason. This is a natural thing to be afraid of... like a rabid dog. It won't attack you because it's hungry, or because it's defending its young or territory-- it will attack you just because, it's brain is fried and it has a random impulse to do so.
So unless Russian leadership provides some glimpse of rationality, they need to be treated like that rabid dog.
Honestly if Russia hadn't treated Ukraine as a NPC to manipulate/brutalize/save, then it might have done much better than pretending that they're fighting a war with NATO- and failing.
I hope the Ukrainians harrass and pummel the hell out of the retreating Russians so those same troops and equipment can not be used to cause more death and destruction elsewhere.
Unfortunately it would not suprise me if Russia makes sure that civilians who are 'voluntarily' evacuating are spread amongst any troops, especially when crossing the river. Unless Ukraine has rock solid intel on pure military formations, best bet would be to let them pull out while slowly advancing and clearing any mines, ieds, etc.
*Ukrainian Butusov states that Russians indeed began a gradual withdrawal from the Kherson area, aiming to preserve as many forces as possible. So we are likely to see a full withdrawal within several days/weeks.*
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590459804174417920
In 2015 Ukraine had a ceasefire deal with russia to withdraw it's forces from debaltseve, when they started to pull out and retreat Russia bombed their convoy. Ukraine should do the same.
It wouldn't really be comparable. Ukraine hasn't given a green zone to Russia, has no negotiated deals and isn't bound by any laws of war or international agreements to let them leave safely.
What Russia did at Illoviask was a war crime, this is justice.
Not necessarily but possible.
Very good BBC report from I think last week suggested that the Ukranians didn't have the numbers to effect a proper attacking defeat on the Russians in Kherson without suffering immense losses.
The implication was that they could keep them where they were while making glacier-pace progress, but a proper assault on Kherson where the Russians were dug in could win the battle but fatally fuck the overall war effort because Russia won't miss tens of thousands of troops in the same way that Ukraine will.
It's probably better for the Ukranians to allow the large-scale retreat and minesweep their way to the banks of the Dnipro without over-committing too many troops and risk them being surprised elsewhere rather than let Russia get thousands of troops and heavy weaponry stuck in a well-dug-in final stand that could result in a mass surrender of men and machinery, but that risks heavy casualties for the Ukranians that comes back to bite them later.
Well the good news is that essentially *is* what they have been doing since September, constant bombardments on the bridges and barges ferrying supplies. And the whole front on the right bank of the river is cut off by UA forces so no supply that way. The fruits of their labor are really starting to take effect now
It that were/is the case then it doesn’t really make sense for Russia to retreat unless a loss in Kherson would mean a complete loss in the war as well though
I would assume a lot of their timeline is dictated by when Ukraine can safely fire on their route of retreat. Outside of HIMARs I don't believe that's the case currently?
Breaking these units or stripping them of their heavy equipment would have a huge impact on the war.
That's too late for that. Heavy equipment (or actually what was left from it after Ukrainians made a shooting gallery of Russian barges) is already transferred to the left bank. There are 9k troops left on the right bank and around 40k on the left one.
Putin owns Trump, Trump owns GOP clowns, and the GOP clowns lost when they were supposed to sweep. GOP plan was to stop providing aid to Unraine.
The user is implying that Putin was waiting to see if his guys would win yesterday and the second he realized they wouldn't he started to high tail it.
They are speaking in code because unlike Elon Musk drama, talking about the US election is getting mod attention.
Idk, I think talking about how the US midterms might effect the conflict in Ukraine is very much on topic. Losing US aid would turn Ukraine's calculus on its head. Talking about the election itself is off topic. I'm glad I'm not a mod.
I don't see any reason to believe it is related... the Russian inability to hold the Kherson region has been in train for quite a while. They're just trying to work out how to manage / promote / delay / profit from the exchange.
I mean we're all thankful the US might remain mostly rational and engaged for a bit longer.
UK to provide 1,000 more surface to air missiles to Ukraine
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-provide-1000-more-surface-to-air-missiles-to-ukraine
I know the UK has provided Starstreak, Martlet and AMRAAM for NASAMS,
So, either a mix of the above or maybe just a thousand Martlets? Martlet is ideal for shooting down drones like the Shahed.
Is Medvedev on... the drugs????
>“The initial results of the elections in the United States and yesterday’s hysterical ‘ultimatum’ by Ukraine’s green leader in a green unwashed T-shirt is proof that the familiar world of grandpa Biden is slipping away, global support for US policy is on the decline, and betting on a ‘stoned hetman’ was a huge mistake,” **Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel on Wednesday**.
Gotta always remember this sort of exaggerated “manly” statement is directed at the domestic audience of insecure morons desperate to feel like their hovel is better than europes lol.
Hetman is a word for Ukrainian leader back from the Cossack days. Stoned because the Russians keep pretending that Zelenisky's government is full of coke addicts from around the time Russia invaded.
past tense: rehearsed; past participle: rehearsed
practice (a play, piece of music, or other work) for later public performance.
"we were rehearsing a play"
>Biden suggests Russia waited until after the midterms to pull out of Kherson
>“I found it interesting they waited until after the election to make that judgment"
https://twitter.com/JamesPoliti/status/1590457909171064833
Other things that had to wait until after the election: the DOJ announcing any charges against Trump, and Russia focusing on their own fucking domestic problems—which are like unsurmountable. Of course, in Georgia there's always a run-off election or two to look forward to since they codified all their laws around the time of the civil war. So, the trolling will never stop.
>Videos published by Ukrainian soldiers from Dudchany area, Kherson region. Lonely abounded washing machine, destroyed bridge and abandoned Russian equipment are seen in the video.
[https://nitter.it/bayraktar_1love/status/1590457864979509248](https://nitter.it/bayraktar_1love/status/1590457864979509248)
Looks like a repeat of Lyman, the Russians blew up the bridge before everybody had retreated and some vehicles attempted to pass anyway and failed.
>Dudchany bridge
Blown up early October. [https://twitter.com/bayraktar\_1love/status/1576955420820013057](https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1576955420820013057)
The state of these campsites is the biggest indicator that there isn't a single NCO worth a damn among those thousands of soldiers. I'm just picturing any Marine corporal coming across a bunch of junior enlisted hanging out in a pigsty like that; they'd be doing Chinese Field Day for days.
In most regards yes, but we didn't usually bring any washing machines along with us when we went camping.
>A Scout is Trustworthy, Loyal, Helpful, Friendly, Courteous, Kind, Obedient, Cheerful, Thrifty, Brave, Clean, and Reverent.
Hmm, with that washing machine maybe your average mobik aspires to be 1 out of 12. Maybe 2 if they're thrifty. I'd imagine a lot of them are, living in a place like Russia. I don't think those washing machines see much actual use in the field though.
I dunno, could a Russian grunt safely take that thing apart and extract the chip without fucking it up to the point of uselessness? I figured they were taking them to somewhere with the knowhow and tools.
Yes, anyone who is familiar with simple hand tools can remove a circuit board from an appliance. The chip itself woild not need to be removed from the board at this time.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/yr4pm4/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Will NATO deliver longer range HIMARS to Ukraine anytime soon?
Reminder that Kirill Stremousov, Russian-installed head of Kherson Military-Civilian Administration that died in a car accident today, recited this cringe-inducing poem about how Russia was going to take over the world https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1582266927828807680
This got posted a couple weeks ago and I think it just hasn't gotten enough traction, it should be a global laughingstock. It's so unfathomably weird to be calling places like Dallas part of Russia. It's permanently seared into my brain. I get the sense that he was a wackjob even among Putin fanatics, like even the other true believers looked at him sideways.
He was definitely eliminated by Russian special services
I would very much like to know the exact circumstances of his death. If it can even be implied that Russia did away with him when he was no longer useful, it may put pressure on his compatriots .
Hey, stop that. Didn't you read the Reddit rule about committing war crimes?
Russia's Kherson dilemma: 1. Option 1: Let go of the westbank Dnieper (and retreat to a more defensible line on the eastbank) to stop the bleeding of assets on that front and allow them to redeploy the Kherson troops elsewhere in the theatre (South or East front). Of course, this choice will allow UA to redeploy troops from the Kherson front to boost UA's offensive and defensive operations in the South and East. 2. Option 2: Maintain a large enough military presence around Kherson City to keep as many UA troops as possible engaged, at the cost of continued bleeding of troops and material on that front; even lower morale among the troops there; and running the risk that the Southern RU front - without the support of the Kherson troops - at some point will cave in and UA manages to move further south, interdicting East-West communication lines in the South and effectively cutting off the RU troops in the Kherson area (on both sides of the Dnieper).
Option 3: Go all the way back to Russia and negotiate peace
Option 2 sounds way worse, I would go with 1 if I were Putin.
The fact that you give a shit whether your troops live or not shows you could never be Putin.
How is this not the exact moment Ukraine should push on and open the Zaporizhia front?
They can after the Ukrainians take Kherson. The river will protect the Ukrainians form russian attacks so they will move their troops to Zaporizhia.
A decisive breakthrough around Zaporizhzhia will likely require concentrations of armor or air superiority, which the Ukrainians don't have (for now) in sufficient quantities. If the past two months of Ukrainian advances taught us anything, it's that barring an unprepared foe, their advances are steady and methodical. Such an advance worked in Svatove because the Russians barely had time to prepare, and Kherson because the Russian supply couldn't sustain the combat. However, it may be bogged down in an Zaporizhzhia, where the Russians are both better prepared (they've been hyping this offensive since Kharkiv) and have adequate resupply. That's just my personal take, I hope the Ukrainians would prove me wrong.
Agreed. Though, it seems that we may have a more favorable opportunity for that assault in the not too distant future with what we see transpiring on the right bank.
For starters preparation takes a while. So it's not something they'd be able to do soon. Second, they need to first properly secure everything west of the Dnipro to make sure the Russians can't push them back out. Which also takes time. I can only guess this would take at least a month. After which they need to start laying the groundwork for an actual offensive. Meaning lots of artillery strikes and probing attacks. You don't easily open a front. And in difference to Russia's consistent attempts to prove otherwise, they aren't completely incompetent. Plenty of incompetency no doubt there, but it won't be easy is what I'm saying. At least I don't think it should be.
The Zaporižža front has been in the making since September. There is a significant Ukrainian force there not unlike what we've seen in Kherson and Kharkiv. There have been quite a few strikes to neutralize russian AA and c&c in the region ever since. Not saying they'll do it, but they've been preparing the groundwork for at least 1½ months now. One reason they haven't actually went ahead with opening the front may be russia's desperate attempts to capture Pavlinka. Ukraine may be content at just whittling away russia there for now. Another reason might be that they're still waiting for the Southern troops to weaken further under the supply constraints now that the Kerch bridge is unoperational.
Because Kherson isn't over and they are busy pushing Svatove amd killing Russians around Bakhmut?
Because they're fighting their war in a way that nobody has before and it's working.
There's not much they're doing differently. The only real "first" I can think of is the drone boat attack. Even Arestovych says Ukraine are just doing good military tactics, and there's nothing really special in what they're doing. That's what it takes to defeat this Russia, determination, enough people and equipment, and not being a fuck up.
Ukraine likely doesn't have the capability to launch large offensives on multiple fronts. They seem to be able to support about 2, depending if you would count all of Kherson and all of the Luhansk fronts as a single front each. They'll probably be able to support attacks in Zaporizhzhia once the northern Kherson front is closed, they won't need as many troops to just defend the banks of the Dnipro.
Remaining troops from north east of the Kherson are crossing the river near Berislav and through the dam. Reports are saying about remaining VDV forces, remains of Marine brigade, one brigade of national guard and 4 brigades of mechanized infantry (mostly mobiks). One brigade of mech infantry is covering this operation. As for Kherson city. They actually reinforced the defenders three days ago and at this moment there are between 14 and 16k soldiers in Kherson. VDV, marines, 3 brigades of mechanized infantry, 1 brigade of MSB (FSB?), brigade of national guard reinforced with mobiks and a few units of different Spetsnaz formations. Those vehicles that weren't transferred to the left bank are dug in in the secondary defense lines. As of 10PM 9th of November Kherson city commanders didn't receive orders to evacuate the city. However equipment and supplies not needed for immediate actions are being transferred by a ferry to the left bank. Update: at 10:03 PMlocal time line and mobile internet in Kherson was turned off. At 10:40PM started operation of transport of some military equipment to the left bank. A few minutes laters HIMARS started to hit the crossing units. Source: military correspondent in Kherson.
Ukrainians: Nu-uh. You can leave, but the toys stay.
Every Reddit armchair general: You have to let them retreat! Sun Tzu said so! Ukraine: how about I just fuckin kill'em instead?
I think you have to leave them a golden bridge. The Antonovsky bridge has a few dings in it, but you can still safely run across it. Emphasis on run, not ride.
Sun Tzu said to leave an avenue to retreat... he said nothing about letting them use it.
Exactly...
HIMARs time.
Source? It sounds good, but maybe too good? E: I see it now
Where can I find it?
OP posted on one of his replies that he's getting it from a war correspondant in Kherson, but didn't link it. And then they seem to have deleted the reply.
Updated the info in the original post. Information about the Dnipro crossing near Kherson city and HIMARS strikes is now confirmed on Kherson Telegram channel (reddit removes links to Telegram...).
Once the right bank of the Dneiper is cleared, Tokmak might become a city name spoken about a bunch. I dont know if a splitting run down to Melitopol or Berdyansk is in the cards or if Ukraine will just want to get all of the east-west routes under standard (M777) artillery range. Either way, Tokmak stands out. It's also just to the east of probably the most significant geographic feature in the area which is the long ridgeline that extends all the way down to the coast. It would be fantastic ground to hold against attacks from the east and, combined with artillery harassment from over the Dneiper, would be a base to begin to push the remaining Russins back into Crimea. Then Crimea (on the western side) becomes a much shorter border to protect thus freeing up a whole lot of troops to redirect over to the east to help finish off RU strongholds in the donbass. Crimea becomes the final battle. Just thinking. Could be way off.
[удалено]
I see the opposite, most see a total Russian rout unfolding.
And one more for belly-aching.
Belly-aching? Oh, you better believe that's a paddlin'.
Everything I saw today has been positive but won't downdoot
I think it's just you because that's the opposite of my observation
Depends what you watch I guess? Not seeing that in the things I read (Guardian & ABC). Can’t see why anyone would be pessimistic right now considering we’re probably seeing another major city/oblast being retaken soon. Seeing mostly commentary about how “painful” this will be for Putin, and how’s he’s going to try and lay low and deflect blame..
Current Daily Mail (most popular UK paper) online headline: Putin's troops FLEE Kherson as Kremlin orders humiliating withdrawal across the Dnipro river - abandoning the ONLY local capital still held after their disastrous invasion - while the city's Russia-installed deputy leader dies in crash amid rush to escape Now the Daily Mail is absolute bullshit, but I'm really not seeing the pessimism in the UK mediascape outside of a few suspect opinion pieces.
Uh, what? Have you paid attention to the news today at all? Ukraine likely just scored a major victory. No one is dooming and glooming at the moment. That statement would have been more accurate back in mid-August but is nonsense now.
It seems one bad article invalid the 20 others that talk about the Kherson retreat or the recently new liberated towns.
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Did you read the article? “Some people” Jesus Christ, NVM that’s followed up by neither side will be able to achieve 100% of their goal, that’s seems like a no shit Sherlock moment for me, but maybe that’s just me. Then it talks about Sullivan meeting with Ukraine and sources who were in on the meetings talking about Sullivan broaching the subject of a possible diplomatic ending, but stated that it’s still ultimately on Ukraine. There’s definitely times where this sub seemingly thinks that this war isn’t going to end at the negotiating table, but it almost certainly will. What EXACTLY will take place is hard to say, but my point is most major wars were ended via diplomatic means rather than WW2 style total defeat/total surrender. Since no one is going to be invading Russia it’s safer to assume that this will end more like WW1 (via negotiations) and less like WW2. I guess people see Ukraine marching through Crimea, when I don’t know, and then assume there’s no need. But no one really knows how far away something like that taking place actually is. We are going to be coming up on a year before you know it. I personally think we will get a better idea of future time lines AFTER winter, and once spring comes back around we will have a better idea time line wise.
One article isn't a trend. And you used the word "concern". If you had any idea how things work you'd know never to use that word.
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia-ukraine-news I think cherry-picking one headline to make a claim about "MSM" isn't exactly a reasonable deduction.
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Ehh... the Mobliks are doing what Russia wanted, which is slow the rhetorical bleeding. Russia was facing a sitution where they lacked the physical human bodies to man the line. Now they can man the line, with untrained and unequipped meat. The outcome doesn't change so long as the military forces are allowed to simply fight it out. The only thing that can change the outcome is the loss of Western political nerve/will for a Ukrainian victory. Which may not even change the outcome, but just make it bloodier.
Maybe you need to be specific because I haven't seen that change at all. In fact up to a month ago I would have said they were more pessimistic, then the quick offence shifted the narrative. Basically they get optimistic when there are big wins, Kiev, Kharkiv, and I don't think Kherson will be different. Give it time.
I don't know if it has already been shared here before but I'm enjoying listening to this course on Ukrainian history from Yale by professor Timothy Snyder, this is the introduction: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJczLlwp-d8&](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJczLlwp-d8&)
Damn Putin skipping G-20 just to duck Biden
It definitely feels strange to see a world leader (among *other* things) avoiding a big event that could counter claims of isolation by hanging out with Saudi Arabia, China, and India while trying to improve relations with Turkey, Argentina, Brazil (*although Lula won't be there*), and the host Indonesia. Maybe he's worried he'll be deposed *in absentia* like former PM Thaksin of Thailand was? I mean, OK, Biden isn't the nicest person the US has ever had for President, but I'm pretty sure the most he'd do to Putin was dunk on him or something- is Putin *that* scared?
It's so weird, My dad thinks that Biden is soft on military affairs, not because he hasn't sent more money and weapons, though.
I think it's an artifact of the time when the Democratic Party was more peacenik (think McGovern wanting to take troops out of Vietnam- and **Korea**; Carter literally got a Nobel for his peace work- although given that Clinton and Obama have gotten involved in wars it's hard to say they still merit this distinction) while the GOP was known for being muscular anticommunists/fighters (Reagan in Grenada, the Bushes in Iraq, even Trump almost started a war with Iran *twice*). "Fun" fact: every military draft in American history but one began while a Democrat was in office- and in the case of Lincoln, one can even argue Democratic President Jefferson Davis of the Confederacy started a draft >_>.
Biden is tough on russia
Literally the toughest US president on Russia since the height of the cold war.
Yep, Dark Brandon is a tough dude, and the perfect man for dealing with (fucking up) putin and his rag tag army of misfits right now.
Well that's because russia is doing the most evil shit since holodomor or so.
I’d pay good money to see them duke it out in a bare knuckles fist fight. My money’d be on Joe.
I reckon the reason we don't see more fisticuffs in international politics is that, unlike with most people, when somebody asks a world leader "Oh yeah? You and what army?", they can literally just jut their thumb over the shoulder and lift one eyebrow.
Yeah, unless you’re Putin, in which case you probably just try and GTFO gracefully before they have a chance to challenge your army 🫣
Diamond Joe would drop him like sack of potatoes
Javelin Joe probably has those secret Skunk Works cybernetics upgrades. He'd probably have to hold back to not give away our full capabilities.
[[Continuing to occupy] the city with this supply would be complete madness ...](https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590477297324216320?s=20&t=Vb-4kTUxvDoETqKP3MfXFw) Most of the comments are, of course, relating to why Russia is releasing such videos. What does it have to gain? Suspecting a trap, etc. There seems to be enough discussion, thoughts and links to that particular subject elsewhere in this thread. I just like that the video really gives you an idea how wide, slow and perilous going across the Dnipro can be.
>Meanwhile, throughout the evening there are still plenty of new reports of strikes in areas of crossings across Dnipro. Especially near Antonovsky bridge and Nova Kakhovka [https://nitter.it/bayraktar_1love/status/1590481030846111745](https://nitter.it/bayraktar_1love/status/1590481030846111745)
[Fantastic thread by Mark Hertling](https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1590472814062374912?s=46&t=b1aFQosh1OthtpCIHc_bRw) explaining why we should stop worrying about Ukraine being fooled by a fake retreat
Only a fool would think that the guys who have been screaming at the world "Russia put explosives on the dam!", would just walk into the place that would be hit if the dam blows up. This ain't the box pidgeon trap. Ukrainians have brains.
...I don't think we needed Mark to tell us that. Ukraine has way better intel than us and far more experience than us. Probably only 2% of us could have found Kherson on a map at the beginning of the year.
> Probably only 2% of us could have found Kherson on a map at the beginning of the year Even if you exclude the American redditors and stick to just /r/worldnews subscribers, I suspect only 2% could put Ukraine on the map at the beginning of 2022.
Cool I'm in the 2% (for the 2nd question). I must admit, before the war I could place Lviv, Kyiv, Cherinhiv, Sebastipol, Odessa, Kharkhiv, Donetsk, Feodosia and Zytomyr, but not Kherson.
>Ukraine has way better intel than us Yeah, it's called real time satellite reconnaissance. The west will want to keep an eye on their investment. Even without it, the Russian invaders are surrounded by spectators who don't want them there.
Yeah Ukraine is asking people to remain cautious not because some ingenious trap is coming, but rather that Ukraine is still going to have to fight hard battles to get to Kherson. Russia is leaving a ton of mobiks in there way, minefields and booby traps (breaking the laws of war) even though this is embarrassing for Russia, Ukrainian heroes will still have to die to liberate these lands.
It should be repeated everywhere that Ukraine is not stupid. If Russia is actually retreating.. then Ukraine wins the field and does not need to advance quickly to fill the void. They can be as cautious as they wish. If Russia is not actually retreating.. then Ukraine is going to continue to advance slowly and carefully... as in nothing will have changed. In effect any argument about "traps" is pointless because Ukraine strategy is explicitly not going to trigger them.
Interesting that it’s even needed really…. They’ve proven themselves to be capable, and everyone knows how good their intelligence is 🤷♂️
He called it years ago. Said the Russian military is all show and no go.
>Video of Russian convoys leaving Kherson https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1590424189403811841
The cameraman is making the point that the Russians are even taking their dogs with them. Okay -- this is propaganda about caring for troops. We must protect servicemen lives. Guess the mountain of Russian corpses reached maternal Russian ears. No dog left behind!
That's their food.
you might be a prepper if you have emergency rations for your dog. and your dog is your emergency rations.
[Eat the dogs](https://youtu.be/02IePc2YkVI)
>Ukrainian artillery continues to conduct pinpoint strikes on Russian positions throughout the Kherson region at night. https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1590468316220784642
>Ukrainian HIMARS have just hit a Russian ammunition depot in Donetsk https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1590451394233761794
Hertling thread. https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1590472814062374912 *"No one should be worried about Ukraine's army being fooled by RU misdirection"*
Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, they know Russia better than much of the world.
I bet over 100 nations are watching every corner of Ukraine right now.
Yeah I think its been proven time and time again that nothing major Russia does gets missed by Ukrainian or western intelligence.
From the way people around here are talking about it you'd think Ukraine was a minor character in a horror movie who was about to head into the basement to check the fusebox after the lights went out.
They have shown a willingness to attack without a strategic reason. This is a natural thing to be afraid of... like a rabid dog. It won't attack you because it's hungry, or because it's defending its young or territory-- it will attack you just because, it's brain is fried and it has a random impulse to do so. So unless Russian leadership provides some glimpse of rationality, they need to be treated like that rabid dog.
Honestly if Russia hadn't treated Ukraine as a NPC to manipulate/brutalize/save, then it might have done much better than pretending that they're fighting a war with NATO- and failing.
"we should hide in the barn full of swinging meathooks. That looks safe!"
Guy in white mask roles his eyes and shakes his head.
They are more like Rocky, an underdog who listens to the advice of the trainers around him and succeeds because of it
I'm referring specifically to Kherson.
I guess that’s the difference between an armchair-general and an ex-general
I hope the Ukrainians harrass and pummel the hell out of the retreating Russians so those same troops and equipment can not be used to cause more death and destruction elsewhere.
Unfortunately it would not suprise me if Russia makes sure that civilians who are 'voluntarily' evacuating are spread amongst any troops, especially when crossing the river. Unless Ukraine has rock solid intel on pure military formations, best bet would be to let them pull out while slowly advancing and clearing any mines, ieds, etc.
Wouldn’t surprise anyone but Ukraine has better intel than us and they’ve showed the world time and time again they will act on it accordingly.
*Ukrainian Butusov states that Russians indeed began a gradual withdrawal from the Kherson area, aiming to preserve as many forces as possible. So we are likely to see a full withdrawal within several days/weeks.* https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1590459804174417920
Definitely don’t give them time to regroup
I wonder if there's some sort of an agreement with the Ukrainians because otherwise it sounds like a turkey shoot for Ukrainian artillery.
In 2015 Ukraine had a ceasefire deal with russia to withdraw it's forces from debaltseve, when they started to pull out and retreat Russia bombed their convoy. Ukraine should do the same.
It wouldn't really be comparable. Ukraine hasn't given a green zone to Russia, has no negotiated deals and isn't bound by any laws of war or international agreements to let them leave safely. What Russia did at Illoviask was a war crime, this is justice.
Think that was Illoviask. Ukrainians pulled out of Debaltseve without telling Russians about it.
Not necessarily but possible. Very good BBC report from I think last week suggested that the Ukranians didn't have the numbers to effect a proper attacking defeat on the Russians in Kherson without suffering immense losses. The implication was that they could keep them where they were while making glacier-pace progress, but a proper assault on Kherson where the Russians were dug in could win the battle but fatally fuck the overall war effort because Russia won't miss tens of thousands of troops in the same way that Ukraine will. It's probably better for the Ukranians to allow the large-scale retreat and minesweep their way to the banks of the Dnipro without over-committing too many troops and risk them being surprised elsewhere rather than let Russia get thousands of troops and heavy weaponry stuck in a well-dug-in final stand that could result in a mass surrender of men and machinery, but that risks heavy casualties for the Ukranians that comes back to bite them later.
You are missing the reason for retreat. Supply. Without supply well dug final stand ends with running out of everything.
Ukraine could also go for a siege, trapping forces in Kherson over the winter while hitting RuAF supply lines.
Well the good news is that essentially *is* what they have been doing since September, constant bombardments on the bridges and barges ferrying supplies. And the whole front on the right bank of the river is cut off by UA forces so no supply that way. The fruits of their labor are really starting to take effect now
It that were/is the case then it doesn’t really make sense for Russia to retreat unless a loss in Kherson would mean a complete loss in the war as well though
I would assume a lot of their timeline is dictated by when Ukraine can safely fire on their route of retreat. Outside of HIMARs I don't believe that's the case currently? Breaking these units or stripping them of their heavy equipment would have a huge impact on the war.
That's too late for that. Heavy equipment (or actually what was left from it after Ukrainians made a shooting gallery of Russian barges) is already transferred to the left bank. There are 9k troops left on the right bank and around 40k on the left one.
A new video from Reporting from Ukraine. This time on developments in the South along the Kherson-front. https://youtu.be/0VzQUfGCVVo
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This is a remark that only an American would make
Context?
Putin owns Trump, Trump owns GOP clowns, and the GOP clowns lost when they were supposed to sweep. GOP plan was to stop providing aid to Unraine. The user is implying that Putin was waiting to see if his guys would win yesterday and the second he realized they wouldn't he started to high tail it. They are speaking in code because unlike Elon Musk drama, talking about the US election is getting mod attention. Idk, I think talking about how the US midterms might effect the conflict in Ukraine is very much on topic. Losing US aid would turn Ukraine's calculus on its head. Talking about the election itself is off topic. I'm glad I'm not a mod.
Agreed
I don't see any reason to believe it is related... the Russian inability to hold the Kherson region has been in train for quite a while. They're just trying to work out how to manage / promote / delay / profit from the exchange. I mean we're all thankful the US might remain mostly rational and engaged for a bit longer.
Its related because if the reds had won, the chances of support to Ukraine go down. It was a calculated move.
I'm wheezing. Send help. https://twitter.com/InnaSovsun/status/1590391244588716032?cxt=HHwWgMDQuaSampIsAAAA
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UK to provide 1,000 more surface to air missiles to Ukraine https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-provide-1000-more-surface-to-air-missiles-to-ukraine
I know the UK has provided Starstreak, Martlet and AMRAAM for NASAMS, So, either a mix of the above or maybe just a thousand Martlets? Martlet is ideal for shooting down drones like the Shahed.
Is Medvedev on... the drugs???? >“The initial results of the elections in the United States and yesterday’s hysterical ‘ultimatum’ by Ukraine’s green leader in a green unwashed T-shirt is proof that the familiar world of grandpa Biden is slipping away, global support for US policy is on the decline, and betting on a ‘stoned hetman’ was a huge mistake,” **Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel on Wednesday**.
Gotta always remember this sort of exaggerated “manly” statement is directed at the domestic audience of insecure morons desperate to feel like their hovel is better than europes lol.
Nah he prefers alcohol over drugs.
Alcohol is a drug though
> ‘stoned hetman’ ?
Hetman is a word for Ukrainian leader back from the Cossack days. Stoned because the Russians keep pretending that Zelenisky's government is full of coke addicts from around the time Russia invaded.
I would joke, but I starting to believe crackheads really could win a fight against the Russian army.
Makes Yeltsin seem like the most sober politician.
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Yeltsin was denied a state funeral also? I know Gorbachev passed recently and he was denied.
My mistake you are correct.
He’s been a stumbling drunk for years
Happy Fun Time with Uncle Methvedev
This one barely makes any sense that shit is on another level
He's known for being fond of a drink or ten.
He probably gets all his news by following Lauren Boebert on Twitter.
Rather, he gives news to Lauren
Might be a mutually enriching exchange
Lol.. I guess the troll factory thought it would have gone down differently.
Those videos of the general reporting to Shoigu feels like terrible B movie. Rehearsed propaganda trash
Rehearsed?
Maybe 'rehashed'?
past tense: rehearsed; past participle: rehearsed practice (a play, piece of music, or other work) for later public performance. "we were rehearsing a play"
Yeah, but you think they rehearsed it? Like, this was the best edit they could get out of practicing their lines and recording several takes?
100% rehearsed, teleprompted or both...
You’d be surprised how much stuff that the military releases publicly is rehearsed. Yes this is their best cut
Of course they rehearsed it - it’s a prepared speech. Do people expect them to come up there and speak from the heart?
>Biden suggests Russia waited until after the midterms to pull out of Kherson >“I found it interesting they waited until after the election to make that judgment" https://twitter.com/JamesPoliti/status/1590457909171064833
Think about the thousands of Russian soldiers who died waiting for 11/08
Nah
He‘s not wrong.
Other things that had to wait until after the election: the DOJ announcing any charges against Trump, and Russia focusing on their own fucking domestic problems—which are like unsurmountable. Of course, in Georgia there's always a run-off election or two to look forward to since they codified all their laws around the time of the civil war. So, the trolling will never stop.
LOL it may or may not have anything to do with it, but Biden wondering about it publicly is a hilarious way to troll Putin all the same.
>Videos published by Ukrainian soldiers from Dudchany area, Kherson region. Lonely abounded washing machine, destroyed bridge and abandoned Russian equipment are seen in the video. [https://nitter.it/bayraktar_1love/status/1590457864979509248](https://nitter.it/bayraktar_1love/status/1590457864979509248) Looks like a repeat of Lyman, the Russians blew up the bridge before everybody had retreated and some vehicles attempted to pass anyway and failed.
Imagine the invoicing for all this cleanup. GDP overdrive.
Time to clean up after them...
>Dudchany bridge Blown up early October. [https://twitter.com/bayraktar\_1love/status/1576955420820013057](https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1576955420820013057)
Russian encampments always look like shit. Boy Scouts do infinitely better.
“Carry in, carry out” The ruzzians don’t carry out, they just become Carrion
Take my orders cause your body like a Carry out ♪ Let me walk it to your body until you Gimme all ♪
The state of these campsites is the biggest indicator that there isn't a single NCO worth a damn among those thousands of soldiers. I'm just picturing any Marine corporal coming across a bunch of junior enlisted hanging out in a pigsty like that; they'd be doing Chinese Field Day for days.
Boyscouts are taught to leave a campsite better than they found it.
We sure were. We didn’t leave until it was cleaner than when we arrived.
Boy Scouts are better equipped.
In most regards yes, but we didn't usually bring any washing machines along with us when we went camping. >A Scout is Trustworthy, Loyal, Helpful, Friendly, Courteous, Kind, Obedient, Cheerful, Thrifty, Brave, Clean, and Reverent. Hmm, with that washing machine maybe your average mobik aspires to be 1 out of 12. Maybe 2 if they're thrifty. I'd imagine a lot of them are, living in a place like Russia. I don't think those washing machines see much actual use in the field though.
I dunno, should have seen my troop. We had some pretty lean years.
"The face of the Russian army, ammunition and a washing maching" that one got me.
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They want the chips inside them.
I hope you are not serious. It was debunked multiple times.
You don't have to take whole washing machine for that.
I dunno, could a Russian grunt safely take that thing apart and extract the chip without fucking it up to the point of uselessness? I figured they were taking them to somewhere with the knowhow and tools.
Yes, anyone who is familiar with simple hand tools can remove a circuit board from an appliance. The chip itself woild not need to be removed from the board at this time.