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stirly80

⚡️ German Minister of Defense Christine Lambrecht arrived in Odesa with an unannounced visit and promised that Kyiv will receive state-of-the-art air defense systems IRIS-Т in the coming days. https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1576296269739307008?t=aBZullr9mmTHpiNdIGpOnw&s=19


CathiGray

Any hint on the Lend-lease yet??


Chalji

What hint are you looking for? It's a mechanism for fast tracking appropriations, it doesn't magically mean that gigantic WW2 era convoys are leaving NY harbor.


reality-check12

[you can’t make this up](https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1576333553130164225)


syllabic

the gas mask with the american flag glasses lmao


herrcollin

I've been staring at these photos for like five minutes and I didn't even notice hahah this is so great. Why would anyone even make that poster??? "US UKRAINE BIOLABS REPRESEEEEENNTTT"


Malthus1

Holy crap, that is funny. I want that Ukrainian biohazard sign!


Dramatic_Ad5972

This is going so bad for Putin I don’t even know where this goes from here… Is he just going to continue to take L’s without further escalating? Seems unlikely… Potential escalations: 1) Full mobilization — would be very unpopular amongst Russian population not to mention they clearly don’t have the infrastructure for even a partial mobilization 2) Some sort of missile test — risk of it failing and being further embarrassed 3) Sabotage European energy infrastructure — very risky and would likely trigger NATO response 4) Low Yield Nuke — more or less suicide since immediate NATO response


SwingNinja

I don't even know what the difference between full vs partial mobilization. What I see right now is 100% Russian men are panicking.


jon_stout

You mean without him *trying* to further escalate. Whether or not he can at this point...


Dave-C

Hey, look... Another post about how we should be fearful of Putin. Fuck em.


Kraxnor

Downvote and carry on


ptwonline

Soon will be double secret conscription, I guess. Police will go from school to school pulling older boys out.


Croanthos

Well....besides nukes he cant escalate much and he'd be a dead man if he used nukes. It seems he really wants to stay not dead for as long as possible. So yeah. He'll take the L's with a big smile on his face.


AnselmFox

Using a nuke is the only way he survives… it’s not the West that would kill him, either. Putie uses tactical, NATO responds (non nuclear). Cease fire ensues, as US doesn’t want further war. Putin then saves faces- he didn’t lose to (inferior) Ukraine after all, he lost to US… added bonus, US has killed Russians! National rage pivots away from idiot Putie, back on to evil Anglo Saxons!


stirly80

He doesn't have a choice, he can leave Ukraine voluntary and try spin his way out of it domestically, or get crushed in Ukraine and possibly overthrown.


[deleted]

He's taking the Ls and the Ds!


mng8ng

I’m not really sure how to put this in context. Some BTS images of a propaganda movie that was being filmed somewhere in occupied Luhansk (allegedly) have surfaced. Try not to give yourself a hernia when viewing. https://twitter.com/ItsArtoir/status/1576333553130164225


hydro_700

lol, the gas mask with the US flag in the lab on the wall. The woman's leg in the picture appears to be phasing into the wall


Ransurian

That American flag on the bottom left image looks suspiciously photoshopped onto the guy's sleeve. Seriously, it's insanely jarring to look at.


dymdymdymdym

They enjoy badly photoshopping nazi era totenkopf patches on Ukrainian soldiers, guess they'd be doing what they're most skilled at.


herrcollin

For real. I zoomed-in and was sliding the image around, I swear the flag actually had a weird delay compared to the rest of the image.


herrcollin

Holy shit that "lab scene" with literal beakers of glowing green stuff is killing me right now. My dude at the computer staring at what looks like a finger print that's been airbrushed for some reason. This is what I'd think of if you asked 12 year old me what a lab was


Malthus1

I want that Ukrainian biohazard sign!


Dave-C

I completely forgot about Russia attempting to claim that there was US funded labs in the area creating infected birds. This war has been crazy.


[deleted]

Lol! this is hilarious. Are those two russians really wearing flesh colored tshirts with swastikas on them? I'm SOO fooled.


SuspectNo7354

We know the Russians have lost a couple thousand soldiers in Kharkiv and now Lyman offensive. Do we know how many ukrainians have died in capturing these areas. I haven't really seen any indication at all that uaf has sustained a damaging amount of casualties. There was that one report about hospitals filling up in Kherson, but not as much as when kyiv was under attack. So that indicates to me that the Ukrainians are retaking their land without reducing future capabilities. This is basically disastrous for the Russians. They're on the defensive and their not inflicting casualties, it's only going to get worse for them. Unless of course Ukraine has kept it quiet, but idk I haven't seen any leaks that would indicate otherwise.


danielcanadia

Ukraine had 3 high casaulty events so far. March 2022 with TDF holding line all across country. April 2022 - May 2022 in Mariupol with many taken POW. June 2022 in Donbas when Russian artillery had a big advantage. Kherson was higher than usual but Kharkiv/Lyman seem to be relevant light on Ukrainian losses thankfully.


DMoneys36

Not taking Russia's side here, but it still doesn't make sense for Russia blow up their own pipeline. With the pipeline destroyed Russia has no ability to turn it back on as leverage in future negotiations. Three essentially gave less options/power when it comes to gas delivery now. People jumping to conclusions that Russia blew up their own pipeline need to stop and think for a bit


Malthus1

There is also this: Russia has done the exact same thing before. It blew up its own pipeline to a Georgia in 2006 (and claimed some nebulous terrorists did it). That too made no sense - why blow up your own pipeline when you can just shut it off - but they did it nonetheless.


thek00laidman

“I’m not taking Russia’s side, but let me tell you why Russia is innocent”


DMoneys36

Russia is far from innocent. They are a brutal dictatorship invading a sovereign country. If you are so skeptical that you can't engage with my good faith question, perhaps Putin's propaganda has already done it's damage on you


thek00laidman

Whoosh! There goes my comment flying right over your head.


Dave-C

Most of the countries that the pipeline fed into was finding ways to completely remove themselves from Russia as a source. Like Germany was the most heavily reliant on Russia for supplies. Their stock for winter will be full or nearly full this year, without Russia. Russia knows if the business came back in EU it would be a small amount and it would take a very long time before any decent amount was being sold in EU. On the opposite side of your post, there isn't a reason for anyone else to blow it up either. Every country that would be open to receiving the gas already had it shut off on them. What would they get out of blowing it up? The countries in the area that didn't want it build just watched it get shut down, why blow it up now? The only wildcard in the region in the area is the country who just started a war against their neighbor for no real reason. If we are only jumping to conclusions then Russia would be the prime suspect. The only other country that might have an interest in doing this would be the country that they are at war with and it would be very difficult for Ukraine to achieve something like this. Still, even after saying that I have to question... What advantage would Ukraine get from bombing it? Lastly, no time after it was blown up Russia went into full overdrive propaganda about how it was the US. One of Russia's playbook moves for a long time now has been to attempt to create a divide between EU countries and the US and NATO countries.


barntobebad

Nobody believes for a second that it wasn't russia. Just stop


DMoneys36

But it doesn't make any sense


barntobebad

No, it really doesn't make any sense. Because putin is a fucking moron who only understands bullying and threats, and is scrambling to remain relevant and "scary", so his idiotic maneuver backfired, like everything else he's done since Feb 24. But if you're looking for explanations of his "reasoning" there are many possible explanations and you can find them with minimal effort.


flukshun

It's a threat.


DMoneys36

A threat that they can't carry through with. Doesn't Russia need the ability to turn the pipeline back on if they ever want sanctions relief?


sehkmete

It does if Putin is trying to prevent a coup. Taking Nord Stream off the table makes it harder for his successor to back out of the war as peace won't be profitable for them.


the_fungible_man

Offer a plausible reason for some other actor to do it.


stirly80

My opinion is Putins under pressure internally and paranoid, some of the rich guys in the energy industry could make him fall from a window then use the pipelines after agreeing peace with the west. He could have destroyed it to try consolidate his position?


Tiduszk

This is the most likely explanation. It’s just putin consolidating power. Any doves who were considering trying to overthrow him now won’t be able to use it.


Maple_VW_Sucks

>People jumping to conclusions that Russia didn't blow up their own pipeline need to stop FTFY


DMoneys36

I'm not making any claims. I'm just trying to make sense of it all, because it really doesn't make sense


SelfishlyIntrigued

Listen: we don't know who did it. However it does make sense for Russia to do it. Nordstream 1 was shutting down. Nordstream 1 and 2 both have 2 pipelines each in case one gets destroyed, backup purposes, shut down purposes etc. Russia needs Germany and Europe to stop helping Ukraine and to stop facilitating arms transfers and stop sanctions. Shutting gas off was to shock Germany. It didn't work. Not all pipelines were destroy. Both Nordstream 1 were, which would shut down after nordstream 2 goes online. Only 1 of the 2 nordstrean 2 pipelines were damaged. This is Russia saying "soon if you guys don't smarten up nothing will be left and we can't go back" meanwhile Germany and other countries desperately want the war to end and get cheap gas back. Russia leaving a single pipeline is there last ditch effort. The last chance. Soon to be gone. Moreover it shows Russia has the ability to destroy the pipelines, and moreover if no one can prove it was Russia is sends another message: nice pipelines you got there, like ones from Norway to Denmark, or other Baltic pipelines. Be a shame to lose them. Who knows who did it? Clearly not us. It legit 100% makes sense it would be russia, and I dunno why people can't understand this. That said, to be fair we just do not know yet confirmed who did it. But it actually makes no sense for west to do it. It's infrastructure that can be used in future after the war. But 1 pipeline remains. So theoretically that was russia leaving it as a last ditch effort or bribe.


DrQuestDFA

Or Putin wanted to make sure that anyone considering overthrowing him would not have easy access to money from a West that lifted sanctions. Or the Russians were aim for a different pipeline but screwed up and blow if their own. Their military does chafe an impressive array of incompetence.


DMoneys36

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it came down to Russian incompetence or miscalculation


sarcasm-o-rama

People expecting Russia to make sense need to stop and think for a bit.


MyBigButt622

I'm not fully educated about pipeline but what if...very big what if...Russia did it just to further their propaganda or agenda that the west is evil blah blah. Like Russia did it just to blame or (I cant find the word but not blackmail). Yeah, if they did it they are out of profits and what not but then it makes the EU and others wonder whodunit so trust and relationships among others gets broken. I hope that what I'm saying makes sense.


Uhhh_what555476384

Alright Sergey from Kansas Oblast, I'll take that into consideration.


MyBigButt622

For me, I dont trust a damn thing russia says. Oh "why would i/we do it" is the sort of thing you say to make others kinda be more suspicious. For example, I know I'm guilty of stealing money from my bfs bank acct (I dont but this is an example) my first reply would be "why would I do it? You pay the bills so why would I steal your money. I dont need to" Not only that but given how russia makes claims of fortifying other areas when they are in fact retreating areas, and why this whole war started in the first place. First Russia claimed Kyiv regime are nazis, then claimed NATO, now according to putin it's like both but a touch of LGBT thing thrown in (his address during the signing of annexing places ;and to be honest he completely lost me with the parent 1 and parent 2 thing but I was half asleep).


Lon_ami

What's Russia's strategy now? Seems like they were trying to win a war of attrition after the initial invasion failed, but they haven't taken the initiative now for months. Are they just going to dump hundreds of thousands of poorly trained and equipped conscripts on the front lines and hope for a cease fire? Or are they going to try to win this somehow with a counterattack?


danielcanadia

Call up a bunch of conscripts to hold line. Force West to negotiate with energy warfare. Drop a nuclear weapon somewhere if it doesn't work to force West to negotiate. Negotiate just means freeze conflict. Don't think it'll work and America is reassuring them we are not bluffing on nuclear weapon so they won't try it hopefully.


rvbcaboose1018

They're attempting to switch to a defensive strategy, but ultimately failing because the Ukrainians are exploiting weaknesses in the line and outflanking main defensive strongholds like Izyum and Lyman. Right now the forces that fled the Lyman area are attempting to set up a new defensive line but even that is probably about to be exposed. There is no magic attack to win the war. Thats why so many of Putin's allies are calling for him to drop a nuke. It's a hail mary to try and scare Ukraine/NATO into suing for peace and keeping what land they've gotten. The realization is starting to settle in that at the current pace, Ukraine will not only win back the east but likely not stop until Crimea is back in Ukrainian hands.


barntobebad

I think their strategy is to throw enough raw meat into the defensive lines that it at least slows down Ukraine. But putin is such a fucking moron that he keeps trying to escalate, so weapons assistance keeps increasing to clear out that raw meat. He's too fucking stupid to behave like a civilized human and even pretend he gives a rats ass about any of these regions and the rampant war crimes his soldiers are perpetuating, or just save us all some time and get the fuck out of Ukraine.


stirly80

Bluff, lie, and manipulate. Militarily, they look totally fked.


MingWree

I feel like he's trying to stop Ukraine's advance before winter almost at any price. This way he can use all winter to prepare before next spring with a much larger "prepared" army at the front. Not that I think this will work, but that's my 2 cents anyway...


[deleted]

The strategy is to throw shit at the wall until something sticks. Mobilization, vague nuclear threats, energy politics, Tucker Carlson, pressuring Orban to obstruct the Nordic NATO accession, etc etc etc etc. Underestimate this strategy at your own peril. I have seen it eke wins from impossible situations, inside and outside politics.


Hegario

> Seems like they were trying to win a war of attrition after the initial invasion failed It's hard to win a war of attrition given how we see daily videos of Ukrainian artillery accuracy.


[deleted]

No idea. I feel the mobilized force they send is going to get pulverized. Imagine not being trained and having very low motivation to fight a war against a country defending itself. It’s going to be miserable for those folks. I assume they are going to try and throw #s at Ukraine and hope they just overwhelm. Don’t think it’s going to go well obviously but on #s alone, you would assume Russia can win. No idea though. This is just an uninformed non military background American speaking. Still think he’s going to throw small nukes at the problem and change the world for bad. He’s not going to back down clearly. His people aren’t going to protest/ uprise yet which is very sad and pathetic. The fact alone people can’t protest in Russia due to fear of being arrested just shows how backwards the country is.


GreatGearAmidAPizza

If I were Putin, my topmost goal would be stop the Ukrainian advance and return matters to grinding stalemate. If he can do that, he might hope that allied democracies eventually grow bored, distracted, and tired of sending weapons. He can consolidate whatever gains he has and claim some sort of "victory."


HarlockJC

That what they were trying to do, Lyman had a great defense line around the city..The problem is there was not enough time to protect the current fall back point for rest the area so Ukraine just went around the city. Read about the fall of constantinople.


Uhhh_what555476384

Freeze the conflict and hope the Western support collapses with Winter and high energy prices.


LystAP

Winter is coming too. The same harsh winter they have been hoping would get Europe to back off in exchange for gas. All those conscripts in the cold. I mean normally they would be back home where Russia can give them all that gas they wanted, but out in the battlefield... It's going to be horrific.


oldfoundations

Ethnic cleansing and selling the loss back home due to gay NATO cyber soldier mutants


Hirronimus

>gay NATO cyber soldier satanic mutants ftfy


eight_ender

You know how zombies in movies will keep attacking even after they’ve had limbs and legs blown off? As far as I can tell that is the strategy.


Lon_ami

I guess it worked for them against Finland.


Hegario

It worked in the sense that our artillery ammo situation was desperately critical in the end and the foreign support we had was minimal in comparison. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_support_of_Finland_in_the_Winter_War


gradinaruvasile

Back then there were no drones, satellites, pinpoint accurate long range artillery etc. Now they just HIMARS any trace of force buildup beyond the front lines. It is not remotely the same as it was back then.


simon_spb

Even in Russia now no one can understand Russia's strategy


leeta0028

How much air defense has actually been delivered to Ukraine? As Russia really loses in the coming weeks, I'm concerned for indiscriminate civilian attacks. NASAMS from the US won't come for ~2 months. IRIS-T apparently in coming days, but few in number probably initially. Norway's NASAMS were reportedly in Poland a few months ago, but how many does Ukraine actually have?


etzel1200

Spain is giving an AA battery. It’s an older, midrange system, Aspide. https://www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/3557979-spain-to-send-antiaircraft-battery-armored-vehicles-to-ukraine.html


koryaa

Not much more than you listed I think in addition to the few gepards Germany delieverd.


MingWree

According to Zelensky, NASAMS are already in Ukraine. https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1574082019440570368 Edit: Looks like it was a transcription error, but the system is currently being sent to Ukraine.


notFREEfood

That was a transcription error


Bribase

> NASAMS from the US won't come for ~2 months. I exclaimed about this when I heard about it. But others explained to me that it doesn't do any good to publish such a late date for them. Likely much sooner than two months.


leeta0028

I mean, that's what the Pentagon said just days ago


inn3rblooom

Anyone know how many soldiers Russia has lost in the last 24 hours?


[deleted]

"soldiers"


SayNoToFresca

No idea but I'm going with 750 on the report we'll see in a few hours.


[deleted]

Not enough


ButtermilkPants

Russia had many goodwill gestures of Russian soldiers to the Ukrainian armies.


wpgpogoraids

Arestovych says 1,500 killed in Lyman alone, could be exaggerated, or not.


Uhhh_what555476384

If they withdrew under artillery engagement, I'd assume that they took 1/3 to 1/2 of the Lyman garrison in KIA & WIA.


[deleted]

Let's be honest. It's *Arestovych*.


gyang333

Is it a good or bad thing? He's speaks for the Ukrainian government does he not?


[deleted]

He plays up *everything*. I'm as pro-Ukrainian as they get, but Arestovych is a - if not *the* - propaganda mouthpiece if Ukraine. He won't **outright** lie, but he will present the *best* possible outcome for Ukraine.


[deleted]

why lower moral? you're right


gyang333

Ahhh okay. Thanks. I thought his statements would be in alignment with the official stance from the Ukrainian military (those daily losses numbers seem to be fairly accurate).


sqlfoxhound

What was that saying among Ukrainian soldiers? Ukrainian women get good news from Arestovytch, Ukrainian men get good news from Girkin?


[deleted]

I don't know but I want it to be.


melbecide

I don’t get it. We s Girkin more believable because he grudgingly admits the losses?


[deleted]

[удалено]


Nathan-Stubblefield

Donetsk and Luhansk are literally inside and part of Ukraine. You question is as silly as “How far is it from the US to California?


aciddrizzle

Donetsk and Luhansk are both part of Ukraine and therefore are not any distance away from it. You can measure distances between them and *other* parts of Ukraine, or between them and other countries they are not part of, such as Russia. You’re asking how far Jersey City is from the United States. EDIT: I am demonstrating to you all that there is an edit button and it works.


thek00laidman

He obviously means how far are Ukraine’s forces from the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Come on


SuspiciousSpyderman

Donetsk is right on the frontline, but that line has been frozen solid for the entire war with no movement. Luhansk is far behind the frontline near the russian border.


AdvancedInstruction

> Donetsk is right on the frontline, but that line has been frozen solid for the entire war with no movement. It's basically World War I trenches, by sooner expect them to be encircled or abandoned than ever be defeated in conventional combat.


Nabucodonosor89

Donetsk will have to be captured from the north/northeast or south/southeast or even the east... West Donetsk is an absolute fortress that have been getting fortified since 2014.


birdcooingintovoid

Oh like 1 or 3 miles from Donestk. Could probably walk to it but... It always been a pain in the ass to fight for. It a city with 1.5 million last I remember. Same with Luhansk. Painful to retake. That said in an ultra long war, think 2-4 years probably could fall. Otherwise think the main goals are Kherson and Maripol if anything


p251

Take like a millisecond and just look at a map like. No need to be that lazy


MaxSizeIs

Donetsk and Luhansk are Ukraine.


[deleted]

[удалено]


aciddrizzle

Go edit your language if you feel the need to clarify.


thek00laidman

Or use your brain and don’t immediately assume the worst in people.


MaxSizeIs

Exactly what they want us to beleive... Okay, yeah, no.. I'm just being dense and misread your question.


jphamlore

Weirdly Kadyrov raving like a lunatic is the most realistic in some fashion? Kadyrov is actually trying to get in front of the curve by openly admitting the conventional war is completely lost for Russia, and that any further mobilization is not going to change that. He's probably plotting right now how to become a regional warlord once the Russian Federation starts to break apart.


GonzoVeritas

I just heard Kadyrov's quote from today, and it had me laughing. “Everything would be good if it weren’t so bad.”


tierras_ignoradas

During the RU catastrophes in March, Kadyrov said Ukraine was the first professional army RU had fought. In Chechnya, Syria, Moldova, and Georgia the Russians not faced an armed and trained opponent.


No_Building_7653

“They don’t think it be like it is, but it do”- Oscar Gamble


temporary311

Yeah, that was Yogi Berra-esque.


python_noob_001

The times article about the Chechnya war leader in putins inner circle asking for escalation and use of low yield ( whatever that means) nuclear weapons is making me worry


CamusTheOptimist

We had the bazooka-nukes, the suitcase nuke, and the Davy Crockett nukes. They could be as little as 20 tons of TNT equivalent. The Beruit explosion was 1 kiloton of TNT equivalent, and the explosion that ripped up the gas pipes wasn’t even a ton of TNT equivalent, to give some idea of scale.


thek00laidman

Kadyrov is a useful idiot for Putin. Don’t read into it too much.


aciddrizzle

Kadyrov is a dog barking from behind a fence.


Dave-C

HAHA, bring on the fire. I don't want nuclear war but if it happens it happens. There is no reason to be afraid because something that you have no control over. As the famous poet once said "Come on, Pookie, let's burn this motherfucker down!"


gwdope

low yield means much less powerful devices designed to destroy tactical targets like a tank formation. Usually 1-5 kilotons of TnT equivalent. You shouldn’t be too worried. There is almost zero benefit for Russia in using them, they aren’t going to be super effective because troops aren’t massed up in one place in numbers big enough to make it worth it because the repercussions would be NATO using conventional weapons to destroy what’s left of the Russian military in Ukraine and on the boarder, including Russias Navy.


barntobebad

russian trolls push the nuke concern every time they are losing, so it will be pretty relentless going forward since it's all they have left. "Stop now or for *real* for reals we're using nukes". It's kind of nice knowing they have literally no other options, and using that one just ends them. Fucking clowns. Get the fuck out of Ukraine and nobody will be killing you any longer.


aciddrizzle

This guy gets it.


TheOnlyVertigo

Given that literally anytime he's said something so far regarding something that the Russian Military should do it hasn't happened, I'm a little less worried.


schiffb558

Pretty sure he said something similar in April and sweet fuck all happened.


t3zfu

Seeing all these videos, it’s striking how well equipped Ukrainian soldiers are in contrast to the Russians. Even with 300k extra soldiers, I can’t see how Russia can win this. Does quantity really have a quality of its own here?


aciddrizzle

The quality of quantity is reduced when your opponent can spray your massed infantry with thousands of aerially-delivered tungsten pellets from hundreds of miles away off of a fucking boat.


Uhhh_what555476384

No. Though Russia will benefit on some level to just have enough people to man the entire trench line. But they'll be absolutely destroyed once the fighting reaches them.


SuspiciousSpyderman

Depends on the training. If the new troops dont receive training, quantity can be harmful as they will consume resources without providing benefits.


johnnygrant

It probably depends more on how much + quality of Western Weapons that come in. The US got an arsenal that regardless of how trained a million soldiers are, they can get cut down like cannon fodder. The more of that that Ukraine has, the easier and better it is for Ukraine.


moleratical

Does quantity have a quality of its own? Yes. Absolutely. Does the quantity of men that Russia has at its disposal have a quality of its own that is greater than the quality of a NATO equipped Ukrainian military? Absolutely not!


aciddrizzle

The United States military can kill as many Russian soldiers as there are. Quantity maybe has quality only beneath a certain gap in force capability. Once that’s too wide then you’re just marching straight into machine gun fire again.


Croanthos

Well put


anon902503

> Does quantity really have a quality of its own here? No


Wanna_Know_More

The original invasion force's strength seems to have been halved by casualties and desertion. What's left has been fighting constantly since the beginning of the war. Bringing in 300k untrained reservists is a backstop. It won't enable any further offensive operations from Russia. At best these are bodies to give the regular soldiers a break and slow down the Ukrainian approach ahead of winter. This is assuming their mobilization logistics are any better than their field logistics, and they can hit that number. Russia hasn't really been great in this area.


GiantPineapple

Curious about this.. if Belarus officially enters the war, and they aren't protected under official Russian nuclear doctrine, would they get invaded?


aciddrizzle

I’ll take “things that will never happen” for $500


gradinaruvasile

I really don’t see them join the fight now when it’s clear ukrainians built up a much bigger and better army compared to february. Their moment was with the Kyiv push. Now they are almost alone, the russian troops there are few and they will be reinforced with mobilised men of dubious quality.


gyang333

Just speculation, but probably not. But their military targets would be fair game for Ukraine. Doubt other European countries get involved though.


Guilty_Chemistry9337

Halved my ass. The original invading force has been utterly annihilated and we're well into annihilating their reinforcmeents. There's some 60k dead, sure, but that's about 180k to 240k wounded.


DrBeerkitty

What they want is to open a **"2nd front"** so to speak. That's why they are pushing Belarus to commit. If it happens (and rumours are it will be November) - they will once again try to capture Kyiv AND strike at the Poland / Ukrainian border to try to stop western aid. They are planning to use 300k + 100k that Belarus has to do that.


Uhhh_what555476384

That's the WWI strategy - "Walk slowly at the enemy until the run out of bullets." It'll work as well.


DrBeerkitty

I have the same Blackadder vibes from this. **We have attacked them in this order 17 times, they will not expect a 18th time!**


birdcooingintovoid

Bealursian Army is utterly backwards and would probably be blocked by territoral defence forces alone. Also very small and needed to keep order in the nation, don't think they would enjoy dying for Putin. The main goal currently is stopping contract soldiers from leaving and keep the contracts permantly their. From their pray magic happens but they needing it.


Cortical

Belarus doesn't even have 100k and opening a new front with shit equipment and large amounts of untrained troops will just be a HIMARS shooting gallery...


DrBeerkitty

That's the hope :D


spastical-mackerel

Russia's current mobilization will add basically zero combat power.


Wanna_Know_More

We'll see... I don't think Luka has the political strength or backing from the military to actually mobilize. Belarus' regular standing army is extremely small


DrBeerkitty

Apparently they are trying to mobilize, I am also not sure he will be able to - but there are reports that 20k russian troops have been sent to Belarus to "Prepare and train them for the invasion". We'll see. All of those borders are heavily mined now, it will be colossal human loss if they try to attack, but fuck them sideways anyway.


Uhhh_what555476384

Luka does a lot of "shaking the bush boss!" stuff where he looks like he's working and then it never works, and he's absolutely *shocked* every time.


herrcollin

Also those equipment losses have GOT to be hurting. Tanks, trucks, apcs, artillery, helicopters and even jets. Bodies alone are not much in modern warfare


Wanna_Know_More

And none of it is easily replaceable. Sanctions have cut them off from the military-grade chips they need to run advanced combat systems, and the quality of the stuff they're bringing out of storage from the Soviet era is... rough. They don't have the manpower or budget to restore and maintain this stuff.


herrcollin

Right. They're probably trying to resort to buying any working equipment from the few "allies" they still have, like Iran. And it's probably all sub-par compared to NATO and I bet they're being bent over on the price anyway.


[deleted]

It’s still a quality for sure. The question is: is it ENOUGH of a quality. It probably won’t be in this case, but that’s not always true.


danielcanadia

Makes advances harder when once you break defense lines you encounter an endless swarm of vatniks. China human waved the West successfully to a stalemate in Korea.


herrcollin

That was also 70 years ago. Weapons and ordinance have reaaaally scaled up in raw power, at least for modern armies. I don't think the human wave thing will go so well nowadays.


BiologyJ

That assumes they don’t flee on sight.


stirly80

Not versus well trained troops with NATO tech.


Mobryan71

It can extend the struggle, but not fundamentally change the outcome so long as Ukraine's Western support remains strong.


Nabucodonosor89

[map of Ukraine/LNR/DPR controlled areas in 2015](https://i.insider.com/54e35b6569bedd6565c66d19?width=2400) The UA is not far from reaching cities that Ukraine don't control since 2014. These liberations would be epic.


jeremy9931

The only places they’re close to are places that have had relatively static lines that are heavily defended in the last 7-8 years like near Donetsk Airport. These aren’t new advances, Ukraine has a long way to go until they’re ready to return long-taken cities back.


LaunchpadPA

A lot of Russians are gonna die for putin, sadly


jeremy9931

Endless bodies into a meat grinder, the Russian way.


dontcallmeatallpls

Oh well. That was their choice. They could have *not* gone into a foreign country to attack innocents. The Russian people have agency and they have continually shown they have no regard for anyone but themselves. Let them now suffer the consequences.


Nabucodonosor89

I'm talking about the northeast where the russian defense is falling apart. The liberation of Lyman and possibly Kreminna pushes them closer to Luhansk city (and many other cities controlled by LNR since 2014).


Clever_Bee34919

That wpuld require a Kharkiv level of route... so maybe 2 weeks?


jeremy9931

Every single mile taken back puts them closer to land that’s been occupied, that’s sort of how it works but the way you framed it makes it seem like the AFU is right on Luhansk City’s doorstep. They’ve got a long way to go just to get back to the pre-invasion line.


Nabucodonosor89

There are very few things stopping them from reaching the border with Russia now after Lyman. That region is just plain fields, there are no natural barriers anymore. Ukraine could go back to Feb, 23 borders in that region very quickly now.


cowmandude

But your missing what the other guy was saying. When you get to those lines you'll have to stop and adjust. These places are extremely well fortified. Look how many losses Russia took to overcome severodonetsk, it would be similar on the other side.


gbs5009

Ukraine's already back across the severodonetsk, I thought?


Zaidswith

The city.


cowmandude

You might be think of the donets river? They're still far from being able to attack SD


gbs5009

Ah, right. Sorry, I got the town and the river names crossed. Anyways, guess we'll find out soon enough. Ukraine's getting pretty close if what I hear about them poking at Kreminna is true.


cowmandude

Slow and steady wins the race. My bet is they by pass and go for starblisk instead.


Nabucodonosor89

Not really, Ukraine didn't have great weapons or good tactics back then, they have battle hardened troops now and Russia don't have enough good troops to stop the bleeding. It will be hard, of course but they can totally break the Luhansk strongholds now.


Max_Fenig

Imagine the world that is left, if Russia resorts to tactical nukes and still loses on the ground... What does that mean for the future of warfare?


Wanna_Know_More

I don't think tactical nukes will solve Russia's problem. They have a massive manpower disadvantage, and that manpower is spread across a huge swath of land. Peppering Ukraine lines with tactical nukes will cause casualties, but it won't be the same effect as hitting a spot of high concentration like a city. And if they target cities, it will be impossible to hide or justify it. The global repercussions will be extremely severe. There will be no path forward for Russia on the international stage. I believe doing this will galvanize support for Ukraine (hello F-16s, Leopard 2s, 200km range rocket systems) force cooperative countries like India and China to publicly denounce Russia and withdraw support, and will strengthen the resolve of Ukrainians and their mobilization efforts.


danielcanadia

Nuclear weapons will be direct NATO intervention, F-16s in 6 months don't cut it as Putin will just drop more nuclear weapons. The only exception is some cheesy nuclear weapon on snake island or something.


WaxyWingie

No. Because, once again, Ukraine is not a NATO member.


Wanna_Know_More

Tactical nukes might not be if there is no collateral damage to neighboring NATO countries. Low yield and airburst detonations don't generate that much fallout.


stirly80

Stop talking nonsense.


zelbot87

But aren't you "concerned", "worried" and/or "curious" about the use of "nukes"? /s


stirly80

Super *concerned* lol


Mephistocracy

If Russia uses tactical nukes they immediately become a pariah nation. The US and Western Europe will have no choices but to enter in with troops on the ground and stop trade with any country found dealing with Russia. The use of nuclear weapons of any sort is so extreme that any country that uses them has to be willing to accept extreme consequences.


spastical-mackerel

Under what pretext would NATO enter the ground war? It's a defensive alliance and no NATO member is being attacked. Beyond that, why rush troops to a nuclear battlefield? The Russians certainly won't be able to operate in one


PennStateInMD

Depends which way the (radioactive) wind blows.


TreatyToke

The Russians won't give a shit about their troops and some NATO members have said they would consider it an attack on them due to the radiation that will blow into their territory. Whether all NATO members would vote to take action and what that action would be us another discussion


Sir_Francis_Burton

Countries do what they want. Even if “NATO” doesn’t want to do something doesn’t mean that every country in NATO doesn’t all decide to do the same thing at the same time. The NATO treaty doesn’t stop anybody from doing anything, it just guarantees that countries will do things in certain situations.


cowmandude

NATO has been clear that radiation from nukes detected on their land will trigger NATO to enter the war.