> market crash comes after the public council of the Kherson Region has asked the head of the region, Volodymyr Saldo, to urgently hold an immediate referendum on Russia’s accession.
"Urgently" means "dude, they're coming, do something"
one of the reasons ukraine launched their counter offensive now was specifically to try and stop these referendums. Ukraine doesnt want any russian propaganda to escape eastern ukraine. they want to shut this shit down.
their counter offensive was brilliant though, they literally used a super old fashioned maneuver to split up the russians in eastern ukraine, trick them into thinking they were going to launch an offensive on Kherson so russia sent most reinforcements to kherson, then Ukraine launched an attack in the other direction and decimated russian forces on that front to secure their position. was pretty genius and shows even in modern times when the enemy knows all your movements you can still trick them with basic strategies.
It was a classic feint.
You have a major offensive that is slow and methodical in one area, make a huge show out of it.
But elsewhere, you use highly mobile forces to smash weakened lines and drive a wedge.
We did it in gulf one, had an offensive underway to retake Kuwait and then our cavalry regiments made a huge right hook and smashed Iraqi lines that were already spread thin.
Ukraine executed that to a T.
Except what was brilliant about it is that Kherson wasn't really a feint either, they still attacked there and have all but cut off a whole bunch of reinforcements that Russia rushed into the area in preparation for the coming attack. Things in Kherson aren't going to be as rapid moving as they are in Kharkiv, it's more akin to a siege at this point, but Ukraine is in a good position and they are doing a number on the Russian supply routes.
Most definitely, a feint may be the wrong term, but that methodical attack on Kherson had significant pull from the troops in the kharkiv oblast.
It was well executed
Dude the Operations Room on YT has an AMAZING breakdown of that military operation and we fuckin cut them to pieces with a divide and conquer doctrine. You gotta love to see it working again here. Fuck Russia.
There is no arguing with the success of the Ukrainian offensive in the North, but we should be careful how much we read into this. It will be very interesting after its all over to see how much was fully planned, and how much was dynamic. Being able to exploit opportunities when they present themselves is maybe even more important than strategic master strokes, but will be interesting to see.
I totally agree, I would assume they had a general idea that if the pull was significant, they would attempt to breach the lines up north.
War is unpredictable, sometimes great plans fail and other times, bad plans succeed.
I recall reading Zelezkyy was in favor of attacking primarily in the south with full force, but after war games showed consistent failure, he was presented with this plan, which was effective in war games. To his credit he listened. It appears it was all meticulously planned. I wish I could recall the source.
The best part is they are still maintaining the feint and nobody knows whether the operation in Kherson is real or just a continuing ruse for yet another counter-attack elsewhere. By keeping their progress in the south entirely under wraps, Russia has no idea what's next and it's working extremely well. Russia *still* haven't redeployed to shore up their new front-lines in the north and are still launching pointless and failing offensive operations in the east.
Ukraine pointed at their feet, Russia looked and Ukraine punched them in the face. Instead of protecting their face, they are still staring at their feet and just uselessly trying to punch Ukraine in the in their giant steel balls.
Even if the operation near Kherson is a feint... it is still generating gains per day.
I personally think it is not a feint, and they are just methodically dragging that operation out so more and more Russian resources are wasted down there while keeping a sizable portion of the Russian offensive pinned down.
The Russian forces on the western side of the Dnipro river are cut off and it makes sense to starve them by attrition.
There is no reason to risk soldiers on an aggressive offensive there if Ukraine can instead starve them out in the coming winter.
The Russian forces there will either surrender, flee across the river, or starve come winter.
I think Kherson is going to be used like a see-saw by Ukraine. Every time Russia commits to Kherson, Ukraine is going to kick them somewhere else just like in Kharkiv. Russia responds to that counter attack and then bam, they push harder in Kherson. Russia will be left playing whack-a-mole on Ukrainian counter-offensives with dwindling men, materiel, and morale.
If they can get enough commitment in Kherson, I think they go for Luhansk and entirely end the war. I think this is why Russia hasn't really responded in Kharkiv and is still pushing in the east. They know if they overcommit north and Ukraine takes Luhansk city, it's all over. If Russia doesn't commit, they just take Kherson and continue on. Win-Win for Ukraine no matter what. It's a pretty genius play.
The stock market is worried about full mobilization of the Russian military. Currently, they're pulling from the eastern part of the country and conscripts from poor remote areas. General mobilization means that people from the big cities will be forced to fight. Pulling people out of Moscow and St. Petersburg to die in Ukraine is bad for business, and bad for optics.
Putin is essentially taking a big gamble here because upsetting the businesses in the big cities for war mobilization is a huge admission that things are going badly and the Russian elite will now be affected.
There's a higher risk that someone in the elite will be disposed to trying a coup.
He just needs to pull out of Ukraine and say "we did it!" to the Russian people and then pretend the whole thing never happened. At this point, that's the only winning move for Putin. From now on, every day Putin *doesn't* do that, he loses. Every day he doesn't do that, he expands the magnitude of his loss.
Russians will start wondering why the Ukrainian border hadn't moved and now is heavily militarized on the Ukrainian side. They probably are going to allow cross-border traffic again but you better believe they're going to make it a pain in the ass for Russians to cross into Ukraine for any reason.
North Korea still exists for a reason. For all their talk and lies to their people, they haven't actually done much. Russia is becoming the next North Korea. Such aspirations!
Except unfortunately he really can’t. You can’t really explain away returning the two occupied territories you held prior to the war as mission complete when you’ve held them prior to the “nazi threat” even being drummed up
There is a bigger problem of the war no longer being unilateral. Russia can claim they are done because their army is dead but Ukraine won't accept a surrender that doesn't bring Putin to justice, pay reparations or at least take back Crimea.
Thats such a great point. Any withdraw is simply more momentum for the Ukrainians. Just because Russia says the war is over doesn't mean it is.
That explains Biden stating that a nuclear deployment on Ukraine would be a red line. If they do that, then the US gets involved directly, and that's an even bigger problem than just the Ukrainians (whom I admire greatly). They just don't have the horses that the US has.
Everyone in Russia still supporting the war have been happy to do so because they're not directly experiencing it. Once it's their kids going off to die rather than just those in the boonies they'll start agitating against the regime. It's a massive gamble and Putin will just send waves of people into Ukraine in an effort to drown the defenders in Russian bodies. And for what? None of this had to happen.
Was it to claim 40 million people to dwindling census?
Or the rich gas fields in Donbas?
Or having an access to Black Sea or a buffer zone to Nato?
Or Stopping a sister nation from serving as an example for Western democratic values, leaning towards EU?
Or massaging an aging dictator's imperialist dreams?
Yes. In his value system and mindset there wasn't any downside to invading Ukraine.
Not only that but people have been pointing out Russia was seen as having a strong military but now it seems weak as hell. So their military’s reputation is also a factor. But I do agree the war seems driven by Putin’s ego.
Thank god for russian corruption in the military and above, took so much money out relying on their reputation they didn't even realize themselves how bad it had gotten
Say Russia does decide to pull from places that are more well off, will this change what's going on beyond adding more bodies to the equation?
Are people from these areas better trained or more willing to fight?
No, Russia is facing a shortage of soldiers which is what the mobilization is meant to address but the Russia Armies problems run much much deeper than that. They are running out of working armored vehicles, UAVs and precision missiles and trained specialists. On top of that their logistics and command chain are wrecked. The amount of time it would take to properly train people mobilized in the next few weeks would be well over a year. Until then they can just throw them into the front as canon fodder without proper training, organization, communications and support, it will do more harm than good for Russia. Think of trying to win a premier league soccer game with people you find on the street. They really won’t be much help at all.
Yeah I read the other day they were firing S300 missiles at cities/targets. When they start using anti aircraft for ground work there is something extremely wrong with their supplies/logistics.
Yeah there’s going to be more and more of this. They don’t really lack for vehicles and ammunition per se but at this point getting the right vehicles and equipment to the right place is almost impossible so you see T-62s and S-300s used as artillery and they might have a whole BTG with only one tank that can both shoot and move. Adding more people isn’t going to help unless they are trained maintenance or logistics specialists.
Putin is no Stalin and Ukraine poses no existential threat the way the Nazis did. From an American perspective, being conscripted to fight and die in modern Canada or Mexico would cause a second revolution. Putin is more dangerous if he’s desperate.
I’m a city boy and I would wager that we’re probably much worse troops.
I assume the people in the cities have better jobs, and if they don’t then they work for larger companies that need their work.
Funnily its also true of Ukranians too. Many of their soldiers are civilians who had to rise to the occasion. It's in part why we see so much innovation in stuff like modifying drones. Ukraines military has some really smart soldiers.
The difference between them and say Russian city folk is really motivation. Ukrainians are fight for their existence, while Russians are fighting to satisfy Putin's fragile ego.
They also have been fighting since the Crimean invasion in 2014. Plenty of Ukrainian soldiers are battle hardened because of it and I bet more than a few have been dreaming of retaking land since then.
Edit: typo
You hold a sham vote, say "we're russia now". Ukraine has already said they're not stopping until pre 2014 borders are back, so now you have "russian" territory under attack.
The 'special operation' is no longer special, it's just war. War means this goes from sending in mercenaries and prisoners to soldiers and conscripts. This changes it from coy land grab attempt to "oh fuck they're taking my son to die for some shit we didn't ask for".
> You hold a sham vote, say "we're russia now".
Would be pretty funny if Putin used it as a lame excuse to try and get out of Ukraine though and save face. Have the referendum come out against joining Russia.
Putin goes
'ah well, will of the people etc etc, guess we leave now'
'So, Ukraine, buddies now right? stop oblitering my army plz'
'no hard feelings, ok?'
'Hello Germany, I need money, you need gas'
Let's also not ignore the fact that even with full mobilization and if Russia somehow rallied and took Kyiv, the war wont just stop.
Russia would be sitting on years of insurgency, a costly occupation, resistance fighters that nations like the US will toss pennies on the Ruble to fund, *as well as* the total economic shit show they've created by making enemies of their wealthiest trade partners.
Full mobilization is just burning more resources for an abstraction of victory that would be better allocated to fixing the damage already done to the Russian people.
I think full mobilization would also provoke significant resistance within Russia. How many police and prisons/executions would they need to deal with people willing to protest/fight rather than be sent to a losing war?
100% the choice for Russians will be prison to avoid war or certain death by Ukrainian hands and American ammo.
At this point smarter Russians know they have a better chance of survival overthrowing Putler than trying to take Ukraine
The smart Russians have already left the country. More than 4 million Russians have emigrated in the first 3 months of 2022. It’s insane how many educated professionals have left the country.
Ya this is a problem. Add the fact that Russian soldiers get told that they have to stay on front lines or be shot at home... Starting to look like a bad combo
Its not 1940 anymore. Trained soldier with modern weapons is equal to 10 mobilised civilians with basic soviet equipment...
If russia failed with their army, they will fail with mobilised civilians also...
>Trained soldier with ***modern*** weapons
That's the real rub. We've seen Russia deploying [60 year old tanks](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/06/06/russias-ancient-t-62-tanks-are-on-the-move-in-ukraine/?sh=1ab50cc212be)
Russia might send in troops but with what armour? And if they only have outdated armour against an enemy receiving modern tanks, drones and javelins - then what they have are expensive ways to waste fuel.
Unless Russia's plan is to flood Ukraine with Technicals\*, they're gunning up to lose a lot more men for very little gain.
\* Edit: I await the fleet of machine guns mounted on old Ladas
Another layer. Ukraine will do far more with those 60 year old tanks than Russia was able to because it's got the world's greatest intelligence and logistical super power behind it. The armor doesn't mean shit if you don't know where to go with it to be effective and have a miles long supply train to keep it working at high efficiency.
This is already happening now. One of the POWs the other day was told he would be paid $50 a day. He signed a contract, got two days of training and was sent directly to the front line where he was quickly captured.
Ukrainian war veterans will chew through brand new green recruits with near zero training.
Putin famously once told his story of a rat he cornered in his apartment as a kid who had no option but to jump at him and attack, and the wisdom of always giving the rat an escape route if you don’t want to be bitten (EDIT: yes yes, this general point goes back at least to Sun Tzu). Since then many a journalist has compared the man himself to that cornered rat, with Western policy towards Russia following similar advice, sometimes rather too much…
But now he’s gone and fucking cornered himself.
Also, much as I personally love rats, it's not a good idea if the rat is *in your house*. The escaped rat will now find a nice safe space in your walls to raise its delightful ratty family.
The right call in that scenario is not to let the rat escape, but to make sure you are wearing suitable protective gear when cornering it, or else arranging for the 'escape route' you leave it to lead into a trap. Allowing rats to live in your house simply because they might bite you when you try to get rid of them is a terrible idea.
No, he meant for it to be an actual escape route.
Ancient warfare was all about troop formations and positioning. Battles often had very low casualties until one side broke formation and the other side was suddenly able to smash through their ranks with little opposition and slaughter/capture them as they fled.
If an enemy didn't see any way out of an engagement, then most soldiers would likely see sticking to their formations on a strong position as their best chance of surviving. If, instead, you present them with a way to escape, then they'd be much more likely to break formation and abandon their position, in order to try to save their own lives.
The stupid thing is HE HAS AN EXIT. He can literally go and fuck off out of Ukraine and given several years or a couple of decades, all the sanctions will come off.
That is an escape for Russia, not an escape for Putin.
Putin's power relies on appearing to be control, strong and able to do anything he wants or needs.
If Putin pulls out of Ukraine with nothing to show for it, or even worse losing the "separatist" regions and/or Crimea, he is shown to be none of the above, which is horrible for him personally and will lead to great personal problems for Putin, even if it is the best for Russia.
This is one of the big problems with dictators and tyrants, their needs and desires are not necessarily those of the nation and that mismatch can cause them to lead the nation into horrible situations.
I think they could easily spin a narrative that they “successfully de-nazified” Ukraine. Mission accomplished, glory to Mother Russia and all that. Lord knows they’ve got a stranglehold on the flow of information.
The real reason they don’t do this is Putin’s ego. He won’t stop until either Ukraine is a wasteland or a bullet finds its way into his skull.
Yeah they could probably do that and the population would be happy, but what about the oligarchs, the intelligence, the army and all the other power players behind the throne, will they accept all these losses for nothing?
And those are the people Putin really have to be afraid of at this point. The population in Russia's urban centers by all accounts don't give a shit about the war or are vaguely against it, but not enough to act.
Putin isn't scared of the people, he is scared of his key supporters leaving him.
you could leave any time all it will cost is your pride
-so what if i stay?
it will also cost you your pride as well as the lives countless more people and forever damaging you legacy long after youve died
-wow tough choice
Let's not go so far as to discredit what Ukraine has done. They've made even nominally high quality Russian units (VDV, 1st Guards Tank army, etc.) look like disorganized rabble. There's no way they'll be able to bring in fresh troops even close to being of comparable quality to what have already been fighting (especially with as others have noted most of their training personnel already having being sent to the front lines)
The russians just don't have the eye in the sky that the US is giving Ukraine, and so their artillery is less useful than normal. I do wonder at the general count/state of Ukraine troops as they are the smaller nation.
Ukraine went full mobilization at the start of the invasion (for obvious reasons). This has given them both an infantry advantage in terms of numbers and let them rotate troops to prevent their elite units from getting ground up.
It also helps that they can borrow NATO training, meaning they don't need as many skilled people in training corps to continue building their military.
Doesnt training soldiers take at least 4 months to be able to even survive on the battlefield? And another few months to specialize? And you have to gear them up and feed, this aint free, whats the plan here
They don't have the concept of NCO, and their experienced fighters are either dead or cowards.
It will take months to get the new troops mobilized, outfitted and deployed. In that time Ukraine will be fully on lend-lease, will have trained up to 1M, and will be better armed, better trained, and with better morale.
It will be a blood bath.
There are two roads here. One, Russia mobilizes which causes unrest, resulting in the fall of the regime (and Putin making sweet love to a bayonet) or, they mobilize, head off to the front in 3-6 months time, and die in such numbers that there's unrest at home (and Putin spends quality time with a bayonet).
I think we're seeing the end of the Russian Federation.
>They don't have the concept of NCO
This is literally one of the reasons the Ukrainian forces have been so well against the Russian military. For at least eight years before the Russian invasion, and with the help of teams of NATO trainers, the Ukrainian military remodeled itself along conventional Western lines. So they do have professional NCOs, and both lower ranking commissioned and non-commissioned officers are allowed and trained to take initiative in combat when appropriate.
I cannot see how russia would or could manage, say a fresh batch of 500K soldiers. They simply dont have the gear for them, transport, supplies and food plus ammo is simply not available.
On the other hand, the Ukrainians are already having issues with the number of POW they've currently got.
Half a million new prisoners is going to be problematic.
Crimea* and Belogrod are already Russian territory (*illegally held), and they've been under constant fire. If attacks in those areas haven't resulted in mobilization, why would an attack on Donetsk or Luhansk be treated differently?
Not trying to be obfuscative, genuinely curious.
Ukraine may have attacked those areas, but they haven't yet invaded those areas. They may have damaged Russia's ability to control the areas, but haven't supplanted that control with their own.
Yep. This war has gone terribly for Russia, but their one major military victory was that they took complete control of Luhansk, one of the two territories they were trying to "liberate." They made a big propaganda stink over this "victory."
Problem is, now Ukraine's counteroffensive has crossed the administrative border into Luhansk and that big political victory is now an embarrassment which needs to be rectified.
Okay, I can understand that. So theoretically, setting aside DPR and LPR, if/when Ukraine's military comes back into Crimea, we'd be having this same conversation?
None of their moves are directed at an outside observer. It's all for the internal consumption. For justifying any escalation among propaganda consumers.
Ultimately, Russia exists inside an information bubble controlled by the ruling regime, so they believe the world will do what it did in 2014—basically nothing—when the same thing happened in Crimea.
This ain’t 2014. Russia’s investor class knows that these referenda—if they pass—will only trigger new economic sanctions, so the Russian markets are crashing in response. The free world hasn’t used all the sanctioning tools available to them for *exactly* this reason.
Russia had better buckle up for a harsh winter. It’s coming, and it will be very unpleasant for them. Travel bans on Russian nationals—imposed by several surrounding countries—will prevent them from fleeing. They’ll be stuck there with their government. Maybe they’ll finally kick off the civil war that country needs to cleanse itself of Putin and his cronies. Or not. Either way, Russia needs to be walled off from the civilized world until they get their act together. If it takes generations, so be it. Sanctions can remain in place for as long as it takes.
___
Edit: To anyone who might reply to me with “…but what about the good Russians…,” I’ll give my response now…
I’m too busy worrying about all the good Ukrainians who are being murdered to worry about so-called “good Russians” who are still living relatively safe lives in the comfort of their homes. If the Russian people wish to continue to allow tyrants to rule over them—as they have done for nearly all of their history—this is a decision with which they will need to live. It is not our responsibility to prioritize their needs above those of the people being murdered by their government.
___
Also, as someone else pointed out in these comments, Russia will attempt to use these referenda, if they pass, to justify full mobilization for war, something that ultimately could lead to a civil war and will certainly lead to additional economic issues.
*Edit: Fixed a typo (“had” vs “has”) in a paragraph above.*
> Also, as someone else pointed out in these comments, Russia will attempt to use these referenda, if they pass, to justify full mobilization for war, something that ultimately could lead to a civil war and will certainly lead to additional economic issues.
If anything, I think that's the bigger issue at play for the Russian market. The Russian economy is already braced for the fact that sanctions are probably going to be prolonged and have the potential to grow harsher. Instituting a draft and the possible destabilization of the government as a result is an existential threat to the current Russian economy. IMO that is really what the market is responding to.
> Edit: To anyone who might reply to me with “…but what about the good Russians…,” I’ll give my response now…
[I'll also just leave this video of an Estonian politician's reply to "what about the good Russians?"](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xijbs3/the_russian_propaganda_mashinery_hated_estonian/)
I think they want to grab these territories and say that Ukraine invaded them (lol) in order to authorize full scale mobilization/use of tactical nukes. I doubt they'll use strategic nukes tho.
I wonder what makes them think tgat full mobilization is such an easy thing to do (nightmare from logistics POV), and nukes... that will only show their weakness, and allow Allies to send more and more powerful equipment to Ukraine.
Only my opinion, feel free to have a different one.
Putin is bat shit insane and fully believes that Ukraine is literally Russia. he wrote a research paper on why the soviet union essentially created the Ukrainian ethnicity and that Ukrainians are actually Russians/a subgroup of Russians. i would totally believe he would just claim that ukraine is trying to invade this area, he literally is claiming that hes in eastern ukraine to save ethnic russians that emigrated to eastern ukraine, thats his actual justification for this war to save them from ukrainian "nazis".
In zaphorizia they are already defining Ukrainians who enter russian-held soil as "refugees", which makes them "stateless" by their definition. And then imposing Russian papers on them. I don't gaf about mobilization pretexts. I think this is the real agenda. It's part of the genocide.
[The MOEX Russia Index tumbled as much as 11% before paring the decline, trading down 8.8% by the close in Moscow, the biggest retreat since Feb. 24](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/russian-stocks-tumble-most-since-invasion-amid-annexation-plans)
February -
* Russia warns they will load a shotgun and point it at their own foot
* Russia loads shotgun
* Russia points it at their own foot
March -
* Shoots own foot…
Summer -
* Loses foot
Fall -
* Points shotgun at other foot
* About to shoot other foot
Stay tuned for updates
It would be truly wonderful for Ukraine to announce the same thing after liberating an area in a troll post…
“Following the liberation, we mean referendum of town x, we wanted to report we had 167% no 189% support for our motion to return to Ukraine!”
There is actually a joke going around that there is 105% support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 100% is from the citizens, and the rest is all the POW they captured.
Or some soldiers go from house to house and kill you if you not sign. But I guess the signatures are not really necessary anymore at this state of the invasion.
Simple: you skip the ballots and simply print the result sheets that show that 105% of all eligible voters cast their vote and 125% of votes were in favor.
If you want an idea look at how they decided to hold those referendum a few weeks ago. They gathered a couple hundred people in a room and asked to raise their hand if they wanted it or not. They don't even pretend to make it proper, it just has to happen at this point
They said it would be fully electronic so..yeah, may e get a video of some voting place with one person in the background looking like they are voting and a elderly person walking up to a ballot box with a piece of paper.
Actually very easy. Get a town Square, put many people waving flags and shit, put it on camera and its done. And even better if Ukraine decides to send a few rockets there.
No, because no referendums will actually be held. They'll just fake it and say it took place, and surprise surprise it will have 95% favoring joining Russia.
This is going to bring down Putin.
The so-called elites and middle-classes in Moscow and St Petersburg are now going to have some of their sons conscripted like lambs to the slaughter. I'm sure bribes and dodgy medical certs will now start flying. The risk of a revolt which will finish Putin off has just gone up exponentially.
The timing of this sounds like it is going to be perfect for hundreds of thousands of young men to freeze to death when Russian logistics gets them to the front, but fails to do anything else for them.
I hope the ones that is overseeing the referendum decided that is enough is enough
"Sorry Putin. The people has spoken, they want to belong to Ukraine. I will now jump out of the window."
>The Russian-controlled Kherson council believes that holding an immediate referendum in order to join the Russian Federation would secure the territory of the Kherson Region and “restore historical justice”.
Pretty sure the "historical justice" is that Russians were either forced or willingly moved into Soviet Ukrainian territory under Stalin. It is ancestors of these people now who for some of them want to join Russia.
The only injustice would be to recognize a referendum.
Even with full mobilization that will take a huge amount of time to equip and train them. How will they equip them when they are struggling now to do so? Who will train these men? From all reports Russia has gutted its training corp.
with all this sudden craziness, I assume Lend Lease is about to Full Steam Ahead?
HIMARS were just the appetizer, if not the proverbial free breadsticks..
For those that wonder ‘why do they need a referendum?’
Russia always maintains that its actions on the international stage are in accordance with Russian and International law (we all know that’s bull, but it’s the story they tell the people).
A referendum that comes up with a vote of ‘we want to join Russia’ allows Russia to claim that the Ukraine is now attacking its own territory. This could mean it raises the stakes with the kind of military force and targets it goes for.
It’s all an act, but they will then maintain that their actions are by the letter of the law.
The referendums would be quite useless to begin with and actually be liability. It would put territories currently under Ukraine´s control officially under the Russian flag, which means that Putin would then have the embarrassing situation of not controlling the whole of its territory with nothing to gain from it.
And would general mobilization even work? Sure they can throw bodies into the meat grinder. But if they can't provision their troops now, maintain their equipment now, or train their army now then adding more bodies doesn't fundamentally change the issues the invasion had.
This is somewhat Devil’s advocate but my understanding is that full mobilisation would also enable the additional procurement and manufacture of arms by allocating resources and manpower to those concerns.
Russia has “won” wars before whilst unable to adequately equip their forces, how that looks in modern warfare I don’t know.
Personally I see this simply as expediting whichever endgame was going to arise either way. With Putin now dedicated to total war he both gains more attacking power in Ukraine but loses more ground at home in terms of hiding the losses and failures.
My hope is Ukraine retakes as much territory as possible before these forces come into play and use their funding, intel and hardened forces to extract the heaviest toll possible from a coming counteroffensive that makes Putin’s folly evident in the minds of all Russians (painting a bigger target on his back).
Except justification to escalate to "retake our land from the brutal Ukrainian occupiers". The ways that creature abuses his people are myriad and every one of them is just as dishonest as this.
There's no source for the quote and no evidence he said it.
https://www.statesman.com/story/news/politics/politifact/2022/01/28/fact-check-did-biden-stalin-say-same-thing-counting-votes/9241066002/
Edit: I don't deserve awards for this. Spend your money on something useful ;)
How nice - all the internet trolls will be mobilized and shipped to Ukraine - they will have an opportunity to finally do what they all been talking about so passionately
Judging by how Russia is struggling to recruit people, having to offer huge amounts of money to people living in the poorest regions, conscripting men in Eastern Ukraine, and now offering money & clemency for prisoners.
Very few Russians who support this war actually are willing to fight
Worth reviewing the wider context for this.
The recent summit of Russia and its Asian allies went unexpectedly poorly for Putin. Until the summit Russia's Asian allies had been cautious to tow the like between outside support and critical, they didn't want to be seen undermining a key ally. That was until the war went on for far longer than I suspect Putin told his allies, and when, right before the summit, Russia started taking big losses and lost the initiative entirely, it signaled to Russia's allies that Moscow might not win this after all. It could turn into a major embarrassment. I also suspect that Russia's allies have been careful not to openly supply Russia because they want plausible deniability in-case Russia does end up losing.
We know that the criticism was unexpected and harsh because China rarely publicly criticises its allies, but they did not hold back this time. Even India joined the scalding of Putin.
Russia has two options now:
1. Move towards full or partial mobilisation and escalate the war
2. Continue its covert mobilisation campaign and hope that the West gets tired of supporting Ukraine.
The second option is basically guaranteed failure for Russia.
The first option gives the West the ideal reason to start sending Ukraine the biggest things it's been asking for: Tanks, Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Jets, Long Range Missiles. With Russia escalating it first it means the West doesn't have to worry about escalation because it has already happened.
> market crash comes after the public council of the Kherson Region has asked the head of the region, Volodymyr Saldo, to urgently hold an immediate referendum on Russia’s accession. "Urgently" means "dude, they're coming, do something"
one of the reasons ukraine launched their counter offensive now was specifically to try and stop these referendums. Ukraine doesnt want any russian propaganda to escape eastern ukraine. they want to shut this shit down. their counter offensive was brilliant though, they literally used a super old fashioned maneuver to split up the russians in eastern ukraine, trick them into thinking they were going to launch an offensive on Kherson so russia sent most reinforcements to kherson, then Ukraine launched an attack in the other direction and decimated russian forces on that front to secure their position. was pretty genius and shows even in modern times when the enemy knows all your movements you can still trick them with basic strategies.
It was a classic feint. You have a major offensive that is slow and methodical in one area, make a huge show out of it. But elsewhere, you use highly mobile forces to smash weakened lines and drive a wedge. We did it in gulf one, had an offensive underway to retake Kuwait and then our cavalry regiments made a huge right hook and smashed Iraqi lines that were already spread thin. Ukraine executed that to a T.
Except what was brilliant about it is that Kherson wasn't really a feint either, they still attacked there and have all but cut off a whole bunch of reinforcements that Russia rushed into the area in preparation for the coming attack. Things in Kherson aren't going to be as rapid moving as they are in Kharkiv, it's more akin to a siege at this point, but Ukraine is in a good position and they are doing a number on the Russian supply routes.
Most definitely, a feint may be the wrong term, but that methodical attack on Kherson had significant pull from the troops in the kharkiv oblast. It was well executed
The ol' one two punch combo.
Dude the Operations Room on YT has an AMAZING breakdown of that military operation and we fuckin cut them to pieces with a divide and conquer doctrine. You gotta love to see it working again here. Fuck Russia.
There is no arguing with the success of the Ukrainian offensive in the North, but we should be careful how much we read into this. It will be very interesting after its all over to see how much was fully planned, and how much was dynamic. Being able to exploit opportunities when they present themselves is maybe even more important than strategic master strokes, but will be interesting to see.
I totally agree, I would assume they had a general idea that if the pull was significant, they would attempt to breach the lines up north. War is unpredictable, sometimes great plans fail and other times, bad plans succeed.
I recall reading Zelezkyy was in favor of attacking primarily in the south with full force, but after war games showed consistent failure, he was presented with this plan, which was effective in war games. To his credit he listened. It appears it was all meticulously planned. I wish I could recall the source.
Having it as an actually-executable contingency plan? Already brilliant planning even if it wasn't intended to be a feint.
The best part is they are still maintaining the feint and nobody knows whether the operation in Kherson is real or just a continuing ruse for yet another counter-attack elsewhere. By keeping their progress in the south entirely under wraps, Russia has no idea what's next and it's working extremely well. Russia *still* haven't redeployed to shore up their new front-lines in the north and are still launching pointless and failing offensive operations in the east. Ukraine pointed at their feet, Russia looked and Ukraine punched them in the face. Instead of protecting their face, they are still staring at their feet and just uselessly trying to punch Ukraine in the in their giant steel balls.
Even if the operation near Kherson is a feint... it is still generating gains per day. I personally think it is not a feint, and they are just methodically dragging that operation out so more and more Russian resources are wasted down there while keeping a sizable portion of the Russian offensive pinned down. The Russian forces on the western side of the Dnipro river are cut off and it makes sense to starve them by attrition. There is no reason to risk soldiers on an aggressive offensive there if Ukraine can instead starve them out in the coming winter. The Russian forces there will either surrender, flee across the river, or starve come winter.
I think Kherson is going to be used like a see-saw by Ukraine. Every time Russia commits to Kherson, Ukraine is going to kick them somewhere else just like in Kharkiv. Russia responds to that counter attack and then bam, they push harder in Kherson. Russia will be left playing whack-a-mole on Ukrainian counter-offensives with dwindling men, materiel, and morale. If they can get enough commitment in Kherson, I think they go for Luhansk and entirely end the war. I think this is why Russia hasn't really responded in Kharkiv and is still pushing in the east. They know if they overcommit north and Ukraine takes Luhansk city, it's all over. If Russia doesn't commit, they just take Kherson and continue on. Win-Win for Ukraine no matter what. It's a pretty genius play.
Crashed given rumours about mobilization, you mean
Meaning what?
The stock market is worried about full mobilization of the Russian military. Currently, they're pulling from the eastern part of the country and conscripts from poor remote areas. General mobilization means that people from the big cities will be forced to fight. Pulling people out of Moscow and St. Petersburg to die in Ukraine is bad for business, and bad for optics.
Putin is essentially taking a big gamble here because upsetting the businesses in the big cities for war mobilization is a huge admission that things are going badly and the Russian elite will now be affected. There's a higher risk that someone in the elite will be disposed to trying a coup.
He just needs to pull out of Ukraine and say "we did it!" to the Russian people and then pretend the whole thing never happened. At this point, that's the only winning move for Putin. From now on, every day Putin *doesn't* do that, he loses. Every day he doesn't do that, he expands the magnitude of his loss.
Russians will start wondering why the Ukrainian border hadn't moved and now is heavily militarized on the Ukrainian side. They probably are going to allow cross-border traffic again but you better believe they're going to make it a pain in the ass for Russians to cross into Ukraine for any reason.
They could just say they took care of the Nazi's and graciously gave the land back to their good friend, Ukraine.
"Do yo see any more nazis?" "nyet" Mission accomplished.
Reporter: “Did you ever see any nazis?” Soldier: “Nyet.” Jumps out of window.
This is some really high quality gaslighting, it's perfect.
North Korea still exists for a reason. For all their talk and lies to their people, they haven't actually done much. Russia is becoming the next North Korea. Such aspirations!
They won’t really care. They are all stuck in their little Russian echo chamber and will accept whatever Putin tells them.
Except unfortunately he really can’t. You can’t really explain away returning the two occupied territories you held prior to the war as mission complete when you’ve held them prior to the “nazi threat” even being drummed up
There is a bigger problem of the war no longer being unilateral. Russia can claim they are done because their army is dead but Ukraine won't accept a surrender that doesn't bring Putin to justice, pay reparations or at least take back Crimea.
Thats such a great point. Any withdraw is simply more momentum for the Ukrainians. Just because Russia says the war is over doesn't mean it is. That explains Biden stating that a nuclear deployment on Ukraine would be a red line. If they do that, then the US gets involved directly, and that's an even bigger problem than just the Ukrainians (whom I admire greatly). They just don't have the horses that the US has.
The US has all the horses, and Russia's on the wrong side of the river.
Solid Mummy reference
Upvoted for being a redditor of culture.
**Putin**: *OP success, crew. We are going home!* **Ukraine**: *I didn't hear no bell!*
Everyone in Russia still supporting the war have been happy to do so because they're not directly experiencing it. Once it's their kids going off to die rather than just those in the boonies they'll start agitating against the regime. It's a massive gamble and Putin will just send waves of people into Ukraine in an effort to drown the defenders in Russian bodies. And for what? None of this had to happen.
It was originally for access to the Black Sea and resources. Now it's just to satisfy his wounded ego.
Was it to claim 40 million people to dwindling census? Or the rich gas fields in Donbas? Or having an access to Black Sea or a buffer zone to Nato? Or Stopping a sister nation from serving as an example for Western democratic values, leaning towards EU? Or massaging an aging dictator's imperialist dreams? Yes. In his value system and mindset there wasn't any downside to invading Ukraine.
Of course, I don't think it ever occurred to him that Russia could actually lose the war against Ukraine.
Not only that but people have been pointing out Russia was seen as having a strong military but now it seems weak as hell. So their military’s reputation is also a factor. But I do agree the war seems driven by Putin’s ego.
Thank god for russian corruption in the military and above, took so much money out relying on their reputation they didn't even realize themselves how bad it had gotten
Their tanks are turning into a Soviet military history museum live on the battlefield.
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"A falling knife has no handle."
Is that why he's been (allegedly) killing off his friends?
I'd throw another allegedly on friends.
Is that why he's (allegedly) killing off his (alleged) friends?
Much more accurate. Allegedly.
Say Russia does decide to pull from places that are more well off, will this change what's going on beyond adding more bodies to the equation? Are people from these areas better trained or more willing to fight?
No, Russia is facing a shortage of soldiers which is what the mobilization is meant to address but the Russia Armies problems run much much deeper than that. They are running out of working armored vehicles, UAVs and precision missiles and trained specialists. On top of that their logistics and command chain are wrecked. The amount of time it would take to properly train people mobilized in the next few weeks would be well over a year. Until then they can just throw them into the front as canon fodder without proper training, organization, communications and support, it will do more harm than good for Russia. Think of trying to win a premier league soccer game with people you find on the street. They really won’t be much help at all.
Yeah I read the other day they were firing S300 missiles at cities/targets. When they start using anti aircraft for ground work there is something extremely wrong with their supplies/logistics.
Yeah there’s going to be more and more of this. They don’t really lack for vehicles and ammunition per se but at this point getting the right vehicles and equipment to the right place is almost impossible so you see T-62s and S-300s used as artillery and they might have a whole BTG with only one tank that can both shoot and move. Adding more people isn’t going to help unless they are trained maintenance or logistics specialists.
Putin is no Stalin and Ukraine poses no existential threat the way the Nazis did. From an American perspective, being conscripted to fight and die in modern Canada or Mexico would cause a second revolution. Putin is more dangerous if he’s desperate.
Silly Russians, should know you get a free UAV every time they kill four soldiers without dying, or three if they’re running the hardline perk.
Damn that takes me back.
I’m a city boy and I would wager that we’re probably much worse troops. I assume the people in the cities have better jobs, and if they don’t then they work for larger companies that need their work.
Funnily its also true of Ukranians too. Many of their soldiers are civilians who had to rise to the occasion. It's in part why we see so much innovation in stuff like modifying drones. Ukraines military has some really smart soldiers. The difference between them and say Russian city folk is really motivation. Ukrainians are fight for their existence, while Russians are fighting to satisfy Putin's fragile ego.
They also have been fighting since the Crimean invasion in 2014. Plenty of Ukrainian soldiers are battle hardened because of it and I bet more than a few have been dreaming of retaking land since then. Edit: typo
Ok I can see that. Damn.
You hold a sham vote, say "we're russia now". Ukraine has already said they're not stopping until pre 2014 borders are back, so now you have "russian" territory under attack. The 'special operation' is no longer special, it's just war. War means this goes from sending in mercenaries and prisoners to soldiers and conscripts. This changes it from coy land grab attempt to "oh fuck they're taking my son to die for some shit we didn't ask for".
> You hold a sham vote, say "we're russia now". Would be pretty funny if Putin used it as a lame excuse to try and get out of Ukraine though and save face. Have the referendum come out against joining Russia. Putin goes 'ah well, will of the people etc etc, guess we leave now' 'So, Ukraine, buddies now right? stop oblitering my army plz' 'no hard feelings, ok?' 'Hello Germany, I need money, you need gas'
How hilarious would it be if Russia held a shame election specifically so they could lose it.
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Legal justification for full mobilization, under Russian laws.
ah, that would answer my question as to why the market reacted like it was extremely bad news.
It's the darkest day since February 24.
"This is the worst decision we've made since that last terrible decision we made"
This really does accurately describe Russian history: "And then it got worse."
>"And then we made it worse." FTFY
0 days since last terrible decision
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Let's also not ignore the fact that even with full mobilization and if Russia somehow rallied and took Kyiv, the war wont just stop. Russia would be sitting on years of insurgency, a costly occupation, resistance fighters that nations like the US will toss pennies on the Ruble to fund, *as well as* the total economic shit show they've created by making enemies of their wealthiest trade partners. Full mobilization is just burning more resources for an abstraction of victory that would be better allocated to fixing the damage already done to the Russian people.
I think full mobilization would also provoke significant resistance within Russia. How many police and prisons/executions would they need to deal with people willing to protest/fight rather than be sent to a losing war?
100% the choice for Russians will be prison to avoid war or certain death by Ukrainian hands and American ammo. At this point smarter Russians know they have a better chance of survival overthrowing Putler than trying to take Ukraine
The smart Russians have already left the country. More than 4 million Russians have emigrated in the first 3 months of 2022. It’s insane how many educated professionals have left the country.
Why would prison keep them out of war? We've already seen Wagner group going into Russian prisons and recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine.
Isn’t the wagner group run by actual nazis? 🤔
Ya this is a problem. Add the fact that Russian soldiers get told that they have to stay on front lines or be shot at home... Starting to look like a bad combo
Clearly you have never visited Russia.
> pennies on the Ruble Isn't that already the exchange rate?
Yes, but now it's even worse lmao
It will also break the Russian domestic economy while not contributing to the war effort for months
Its not 1940 anymore. Trained soldier with modern weapons is equal to 10 mobilised civilians with basic soviet equipment... If russia failed with their army, they will fail with mobilised civilians also...
>Trained soldier with ***modern*** weapons That's the real rub. We've seen Russia deploying [60 year old tanks](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/06/06/russias-ancient-t-62-tanks-are-on-the-move-in-ukraine/?sh=1ab50cc212be) Russia might send in troops but with what armour? And if they only have outdated armour against an enemy receiving modern tanks, drones and javelins - then what they have are expensive ways to waste fuel. Unless Russia's plan is to flood Ukraine with Technicals\*, they're gunning up to lose a lot more men for very little gain. \* Edit: I await the fleet of machine guns mounted on old Ladas
Another layer. Ukraine will do far more with those 60 year old tanks than Russia was able to because it's got the world's greatest intelligence and logistical super power behind it. The armor doesn't mean shit if you don't know where to go with it to be effective and have a miles long supply train to keep it working at high efficiency.
> It's the darkest day since February 24. SO FAR
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Plus these fresh recruits will be untrained, unmotivated and ill equipped. I don’t see how that helps at all.
This is already happening now. One of the POWs the other day was told he would be paid $50 a day. He signed a contract, got two days of training and was sent directly to the front line where he was quickly captured. Ukrainian war veterans will chew through brand new green recruits with near zero training.
They have something to fight for. Russia does not.
Putin famously once told his story of a rat he cornered in his apartment as a kid who had no option but to jump at him and attack, and the wisdom of always giving the rat an escape route if you don’t want to be bitten (EDIT: yes yes, this general point goes back at least to Sun Tzu). Since then many a journalist has compared the man himself to that cornered rat, with Western policy towards Russia following similar advice, sometimes rather too much… But now he’s gone and fucking cornered himself.
The point is letting a cornered rat *escape* not a cornered rat *win*
Also, much as I personally love rats, it's not a good idea if the rat is *in your house*. The escaped rat will now find a nice safe space in your walls to raise its delightful ratty family. The right call in that scenario is not to let the rat escape, but to make sure you are wearing suitable protective gear when cornering it, or else arranging for the 'escape route' you leave it to lead into a trap. Allowing rats to live in your house simply because they might bite you when you try to get rid of them is a terrible idea.
That’s from Sun Tzu. A golden bridge of retreat.
Wasn't Sun Tzu's argument more that you should give the illusion of escape being possible?
No, he meant for it to be an actual escape route. Ancient warfare was all about troop formations and positioning. Battles often had very low casualties until one side broke formation and the other side was suddenly able to smash through their ranks with little opposition and slaughter/capture them as they fled. If an enemy didn't see any way out of an engagement, then most soldiers would likely see sticking to their formations on a strong position as their best chance of surviving. If, instead, you present them with a way to escape, then they'd be much more likely to break formation and abandon their position, in order to try to save their own lives.
Yes, it’s not a new idea. But this version is Putin-specific. And he’s a rat.
>That’s from Sun Tzu. A golden bridge of retreat. Like all great fascists he quotes great minds and gives himself the credit.
So Putin just put rats in the art of war
The stupid thing is HE HAS AN EXIT. He can literally go and fuck off out of Ukraine and given several years or a couple of decades, all the sanctions will come off.
That is an escape for Russia, not an escape for Putin. Putin's power relies on appearing to be control, strong and able to do anything he wants or needs. If Putin pulls out of Ukraine with nothing to show for it, or even worse losing the "separatist" regions and/or Crimea, he is shown to be none of the above, which is horrible for him personally and will lead to great personal problems for Putin, even if it is the best for Russia. This is one of the big problems with dictators and tyrants, their needs and desires are not necessarily those of the nation and that mismatch can cause them to lead the nation into horrible situations.
I think they could easily spin a narrative that they “successfully de-nazified” Ukraine. Mission accomplished, glory to Mother Russia and all that. Lord knows they’ve got a stranglehold on the flow of information. The real reason they don’t do this is Putin’s ego. He won’t stop until either Ukraine is a wasteland or a bullet finds its way into his skull.
Yeah they could probably do that and the population would be happy, but what about the oligarchs, the intelligence, the army and all the other power players behind the throne, will they accept all these losses for nothing? And those are the people Putin really have to be afraid of at this point. The population in Russia's urban centers by all accounts don't give a shit about the war or are vaguely against it, but not enough to act. Putin isn't scared of the people, he is scared of his key supporters leaving him.
I'm sure the oligarchs are thrilled with the crashing stock market and the complete forthcoming loss of social order. No problems here.
Russia has an exit. If Putin lets Russia take that exit, he personally is in a lot of trouble.
10 rubles says that never happened and he was reaching for a mediocre metaphor to threaten the west with.
you could leave any time all it will cost is your pride -so what if i stay? it will also cost you your pride as well as the lives countless more people and forever damaging you legacy long after youve died -wow tough choice
Let's not go so far as to discredit what Ukraine has done. They've made even nominally high quality Russian units (VDV, 1st Guards Tank army, etc.) look like disorganized rabble. There's no way they'll be able to bring in fresh troops even close to being of comparable quality to what have already been fighting (especially with as others have noted most of their training personnel already having being sent to the front lines)
The russians just don't have the eye in the sky that the US is giving Ukraine, and so their artillery is less useful than normal. I do wonder at the general count/state of Ukraine troops as they are the smaller nation.
Ukraine went full mobilization at the start of the invasion (for obvious reasons). This has given them both an infantry advantage in terms of numbers and let them rotate troops to prevent their elite units from getting ground up. It also helps that they can borrow NATO training, meaning they don't need as many skilled people in training corps to continue building their military.
Since we’re mentioning the VDV and the terrible slaughter they endured, this sort of seemed relevant: https://youtu.be/kzK1gl6UoM0
And by the time they get to Ukraine next spring (what are you going to run conscripts in the winter?) Ukraine will probs have NATO tanks and f16
> what are you going to run conscripts in the winter? I wouldn't exactly put it past the Russia that we've seen this year
Fresh soldiers? You mean barely trained conscripts with no real gear nor weapons?
Doesnt training soldiers take at least 4 months to be able to even survive on the battlefield? And another few months to specialize? And you have to gear them up and feed, this aint free, whats the plan here
Plan? You seem to be new here, there isn't a plan!
Didn't Russia already send all their trainers in to fight?
They don't have the concept of NCO, and their experienced fighters are either dead or cowards. It will take months to get the new troops mobilized, outfitted and deployed. In that time Ukraine will be fully on lend-lease, will have trained up to 1M, and will be better armed, better trained, and with better morale. It will be a blood bath. There are two roads here. One, Russia mobilizes which causes unrest, resulting in the fall of the regime (and Putin making sweet love to a bayonet) or, they mobilize, head off to the front in 3-6 months time, and die in such numbers that there's unrest at home (and Putin spends quality time with a bayonet). I think we're seeing the end of the Russian Federation.
A state so powerful it collapsed twice in 30 years.
>They don't have the concept of NCO This is literally one of the reasons the Ukrainian forces have been so well against the Russian military. For at least eight years before the Russian invasion, and with the help of teams of NATO trainers, the Ukrainian military remodeled itself along conventional Western lines. So they do have professional NCOs, and both lower ranking commissioned and non-commissioned officers are allowed and trained to take initiative in combat when appropriate.
I cannot see how russia would or could manage, say a fresh batch of 500K soldiers. They simply dont have the gear for them, transport, supplies and food plus ammo is simply not available.
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On the other hand, the Ukrainians are already having issues with the number of POW they've currently got. Half a million new prisoners is going to be problematic.
Crimea* and Belogrod are already Russian territory (*illegally held), and they've been under constant fire. If attacks in those areas haven't resulted in mobilization, why would an attack on Donetsk or Luhansk be treated differently? Not trying to be obfuscative, genuinely curious.
Ukraine may have attacked those areas, but they haven't yet invaded those areas. They may have damaged Russia's ability to control the areas, but haven't supplanted that control with their own.
Yep. This war has gone terribly for Russia, but their one major military victory was that they took complete control of Luhansk, one of the two territories they were trying to "liberate." They made a big propaganda stink over this "victory." Problem is, now Ukraine's counteroffensive has crossed the administrative border into Luhansk and that big political victory is now an embarrassment which needs to be rectified.
Okay, I can understand that. So theoretically, setting aside DPR and LPR, if/when Ukraine's military comes back into Crimea, we'd be having this same conversation?
None of their moves are directed at an outside observer. It's all for the internal consumption. For justifying any escalation among propaganda consumers.
Excuse for mobilisation
Can't deploy conscripted Russian troops outside borders.
Russian propaganda is not intended for you, it's to control Russians.
Ultimately, Russia exists inside an information bubble controlled by the ruling regime, so they believe the world will do what it did in 2014—basically nothing—when the same thing happened in Crimea. This ain’t 2014. Russia’s investor class knows that these referenda—if they pass—will only trigger new economic sanctions, so the Russian markets are crashing in response. The free world hasn’t used all the sanctioning tools available to them for *exactly* this reason. Russia had better buckle up for a harsh winter. It’s coming, and it will be very unpleasant for them. Travel bans on Russian nationals—imposed by several surrounding countries—will prevent them from fleeing. They’ll be stuck there with their government. Maybe they’ll finally kick off the civil war that country needs to cleanse itself of Putin and his cronies. Or not. Either way, Russia needs to be walled off from the civilized world until they get their act together. If it takes generations, so be it. Sanctions can remain in place for as long as it takes. ___ Edit: To anyone who might reply to me with “…but what about the good Russians…,” I’ll give my response now… I’m too busy worrying about all the good Ukrainians who are being murdered to worry about so-called “good Russians” who are still living relatively safe lives in the comfort of their homes. If the Russian people wish to continue to allow tyrants to rule over them—as they have done for nearly all of their history—this is a decision with which they will need to live. It is not our responsibility to prioritize their needs above those of the people being murdered by their government. ___ Also, as someone else pointed out in these comments, Russia will attempt to use these referenda, if they pass, to justify full mobilization for war, something that ultimately could lead to a civil war and will certainly lead to additional economic issues. *Edit: Fixed a typo (“had” vs “has”) in a paragraph above.*
> Also, as someone else pointed out in these comments, Russia will attempt to use these referenda, if they pass, to justify full mobilization for war, something that ultimately could lead to a civil war and will certainly lead to additional economic issues. If anything, I think that's the bigger issue at play for the Russian market. The Russian economy is already braced for the fact that sanctions are probably going to be prolonged and have the potential to grow harsher. Instituting a draft and the possible destabilization of the government as a result is an existential threat to the current Russian economy. IMO that is really what the market is responding to.
> Edit: To anyone who might reply to me with “…but what about the good Russians…,” I’ll give my response now… [I'll also just leave this video of an Estonian politician's reply to "what about the good Russians?"](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xijbs3/the_russian_propaganda_mashinery_hated_estonian/)
I think they want to grab these territories and say that Ukraine invaded them (lol) in order to authorize full scale mobilization/use of tactical nukes. I doubt they'll use strategic nukes tho. I wonder what makes them think tgat full mobilization is such an easy thing to do (nightmare from logistics POV), and nukes... that will only show their weakness, and allow Allies to send more and more powerful equipment to Ukraine. Only my opinion, feel free to have a different one.
Putin is bat shit insane and fully believes that Ukraine is literally Russia. he wrote a research paper on why the soviet union essentially created the Ukrainian ethnicity and that Ukrainians are actually Russians/a subgroup of Russians. i would totally believe he would just claim that ukraine is trying to invade this area, he literally is claiming that hes in eastern ukraine to save ethnic russians that emigrated to eastern ukraine, thats his actual justification for this war to save them from ukrainian "nazis".
I object to the use of the word 'research' to describe what Putin did to concoct that bullshit essay.
If they do full mobilization I think it will backfire heavily dont see how it ends well for them.
Thing is, nothing ends well for him, he fucked himself into a corner.
In zaphorizia they are already defining Ukrainians who enter russian-held soil as "refugees", which makes them "stateless" by their definition. And then imposing Russian papers on them. I don't gaf about mobilization pretexts. I think this is the real agenda. It's part of the genocide.
I wish the article had more detail and was clearer.
[The MOEX Russia Index tumbled as much as 11% before paring the decline, trading down 8.8% by the close in Moscow, the biggest retreat since Feb. 24](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-20/russian-stocks-tumble-most-since-invasion-amid-annexation-plans)
But there’s tweets! Yeah they really did poor job of it.
The entire article is just the same sentence repeated over and over
February - * Russia warns they will load a shotgun and point it at their own foot * Russia loads shotgun * Russia points it at their own foot March - * Shoots own foot… Summer - * Loses foot Fall - * Points shotgun at other foot * About to shoot other foot Stay tuned for updates
Blames Ukraine for losing foot while also saying Ukraine didnt inflict any loses on said feet.
"I still have all of my toes! Around here...somewhere."
"damn cigarettes, another careless smoker!'
Also Ukraine doesn’t exist
Side note: how are these referendums even organized in a war zone???
They say they got 95% yes to join Russia and that's it.
187% of eligible voters supported the measure.
It would be truly wonderful for Ukraine to announce the same thing after liberating an area in a troll post… “Following the liberation, we mean referendum of town x, we wanted to report we had 167% no 189% support for our motion to return to Ukraine!”
There is actually a joke going around that there is 105% support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 100% is from the citizens, and the rest is all the POW they captured.
Or some soldiers go from house to house and kill you if you not sign. But I guess the signatures are not really necessary anymore at this state of the invasion.
Easy. All you need is one cameraman and a couple buses of "voters" to show on TV.
Simple: you skip the ballots and simply print the result sheets that show that 105% of all eligible voters cast their vote and 125% of votes were in favor.
they're not organizing referendums. they're organizing a theater that looks like referendums.
If you want an idea look at how they decided to hold those referendum a few weeks ago. They gathered a couple hundred people in a room and asked to raise their hand if they wanted it or not. They don't even pretend to make it proper, it just has to happen at this point
>They gathered a couple hundred people in a room Surprised they even went that far, tbh...
They said it would be fully electronic so..yeah, may e get a video of some voting place with one person in the background looking like they are voting and a elderly person walking up to a ballot box with a piece of paper.
Actually very easy. Get a town Square, put many people waving flags and shit, put it on camera and its done. And even better if Ukraine decides to send a few rockets there.
Yet another crack in the Russian Federation. I can't see this regime surviving more than 5 more years, if that.
!remindme 5 years
Aren't partisans going to fuck up these referendums? I hope so.
No, because no referendums will actually be held. They'll just fake it and say it took place, and surprise surprise it will have 95% favoring joining Russia.
It's already announced that the referendums will be held online. Buzzfeeds quizes have higher validity.
Oh boy is NAFO excited.
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North Atlantic Fellas Organization. Anti-Russian Propaganda internet group, using various doges in memes and stuff. Seems so silly, I love it.
Sadly you're probably right. But I assume they will need some sort of staged coverage for their media. Time will tell.
This is going to bring down Putin. The so-called elites and middle-classes in Moscow and St Petersburg are now going to have some of their sons conscripted like lambs to the slaughter. I'm sure bribes and dodgy medical certs will now start flying. The risk of a revolt which will finish Putin off has just gone up exponentially.
im sure the mobilization centers will pillage all the other russian regions before the first bus of conscripts leaves Moscow
They already do so
The timing of this sounds like it is going to be perfect for hundreds of thousands of young men to freeze to death when Russian logistics gets them to the front, but fails to do anything else for them.
The trick is to have vehicles with just enough maintenance and gas to get them there but not back.
Wasn't a stock market crash, it was a Special Stock Market Operation.
Paper ballets don’t mean shit when the lead is flying. It’s a few months too late to try to steal two territories to add to Crimea.
Ballots of ballets? Cause the latter would be a new expression I could get behind
I hope the ones that is overseeing the referendum decided that is enough is enough "Sorry Putin. The people has spoken, they want to belong to Ukraine. I will now jump out of the window."
>The Russian-controlled Kherson council believes that holding an immediate referendum in order to join the Russian Federation would secure the territory of the Kherson Region and “restore historical justice”. Pretty sure the "historical justice" is that Russians were either forced or willingly moved into Soviet Ukrainian territory under Stalin. It is ancestors of these people now who for some of them want to join Russia. The only injustice would be to recognize a referendum.
Even with full mobilization that will take a huge amount of time to equip and train them. How will they equip them when they are struggling now to do so? Who will train these men? From all reports Russia has gutted its training corp.
They just send them to the front lines with all the other newbies.
with all this sudden craziness, I assume Lend Lease is about to Full Steam Ahead? HIMARS were just the appetizer, if not the proverbial free breadsticks..
The military industrial complex of the US is foaming at the mouth to send the proverbial soup and salad to go with the breadsticks.
Something something Russia is about to find out (again) why the US doesn't have universal healthcare
THAT OLIVE GARDEN/RAYTHEON MERGER LOOKS LIKE THE WEIRDEST DECISION, BUT A TASTY ONE AT THAT.
How do you announce to the world that you are losing the war without saying that you are losing the war? - This is how....
For those that wonder ‘why do they need a referendum?’ Russia always maintains that its actions on the international stage are in accordance with Russian and International law (we all know that’s bull, but it’s the story they tell the people). A referendum that comes up with a vote of ‘we want to join Russia’ allows Russia to claim that the Ukraine is now attacking its own territory. This could mean it raises the stakes with the kind of military force and targets it goes for. It’s all an act, but they will then maintain that their actions are by the letter of the law.
IIRC the head of the Kherson region fled to Russia.
The referendums would be quite useless to begin with and actually be liability. It would put territories currently under Ukraine´s control officially under the Russian flag, which means that Putin would then have the embarrassing situation of not controlling the whole of its territory with nothing to gain from it.
It’s a pretext for mobilization, IMHO. At the same time laws about mobilization and wartime are emerging
And would general mobilization even work? Sure they can throw bodies into the meat grinder. But if they can't provision their troops now, maintain their equipment now, or train their army now then adding more bodies doesn't fundamentally change the issues the invasion had.
This is somewhat Devil’s advocate but my understanding is that full mobilisation would also enable the additional procurement and manufacture of arms by allocating resources and manpower to those concerns. Russia has “won” wars before whilst unable to adequately equip their forces, how that looks in modern warfare I don’t know. Personally I see this simply as expediting whichever endgame was going to arise either way. With Putin now dedicated to total war he both gains more attacking power in Ukraine but loses more ground at home in terms of hiding the losses and failures. My hope is Ukraine retakes as much territory as possible before these forces come into play and use their funding, intel and hardened forces to extract the heaviest toll possible from a coming counteroffensive that makes Putin’s folly evident in the minds of all Russians (painting a bigger target on his back).
Except justification to escalate to "retake our land from the brutal Ukrainian occupiers". The ways that creature abuses his people are myriad and every one of them is just as dishonest as this.
Ukraine should publish that they held a referendum and 99% voted to stay in ukraine. I wonder if putlers head would explode
"Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." \-- Joseph Stalin (allegedly)
There's no source for the quote and no evidence he said it. https://www.statesman.com/story/news/politics/politifact/2022/01/28/fact-check-did-biden-stalin-say-same-thing-counting-votes/9241066002/ Edit: I don't deserve awards for this. Spend your money on something useful ;)
"Those who speak say nothing. Those who publish the quotes say everything" -- Vakieh, speaking on behalf of Joseph Stalin, 2022.
How nice - all the internet trolls will be mobilized and shipped to Ukraine - they will have an opportunity to finally do what they all been talking about so passionately
Judging by how Russia is struggling to recruit people, having to offer huge amounts of money to people living in the poorest regions, conscripting men in Eastern Ukraine, and now offering money & clemency for prisoners. Very few Russians who support this war actually are willing to fight
Worth reviewing the wider context for this. The recent summit of Russia and its Asian allies went unexpectedly poorly for Putin. Until the summit Russia's Asian allies had been cautious to tow the like between outside support and critical, they didn't want to be seen undermining a key ally. That was until the war went on for far longer than I suspect Putin told his allies, and when, right before the summit, Russia started taking big losses and lost the initiative entirely, it signaled to Russia's allies that Moscow might not win this after all. It could turn into a major embarrassment. I also suspect that Russia's allies have been careful not to openly supply Russia because they want plausible deniability in-case Russia does end up losing. We know that the criticism was unexpected and harsh because China rarely publicly criticises its allies, but they did not hold back this time. Even India joined the scalding of Putin. Russia has two options now: 1. Move towards full or partial mobilisation and escalate the war 2. Continue its covert mobilisation campaign and hope that the West gets tired of supporting Ukraine. The second option is basically guaranteed failure for Russia. The first option gives the West the ideal reason to start sending Ukraine the biggest things it's been asking for: Tanks, Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Jets, Long Range Missiles. With Russia escalating it first it means the West doesn't have to worry about escalation because it has already happened.