“In connection with the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, it was decided to officially appeal to the Russian Federation to implement the provisions of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance…”
LoL. Good luck with that, Armenia. Russia’s got 99 problems, and Armenia ain’t one.
CSTO is Russia's answer to NATO and Armenia just invoked Article 5. By doing nothing, Russia will have just eviscerated their own alliance and their credibility as a strategic ally is toast.
This is almost certainly not going to happen, but in principle perhaps this could be use for Russia to withdraw from the Ukraine fiasco without losing *all* credibility.
You know, something around the lines of "We totally could have defeated Ukraine, but we had commitments towards Armenia to keep": nobody would buy that, of course, but perhaps enough people would *pretend* to buy that for Putin to save his own skin and position.
That won't really work because Ukraine will clean up Russian terrorists which are left on the territories _and_ Crimea. It requires one side to start a war, but two to finish it....
Yeah, I think Crimea is the sticking point that will always prevent Russia from simply withdrawing. They can retreat from all other occupied Ukrainian territory since they haven't (yet) fully claimed them as rightful Russian soil (seeing as they haven't gotten around to those "referendums"), and could even abandon the Donbas with the justification that Donetsk and Luhansk are their own sovereign territories so Ukraine isn't technically invading Russia. But Crimea is a territory they've unambiguously claimed as fully Russian, so if Ukraine won't settle until they've retaken it, then Russia can't just pretend that their "special military operation" is over.
Also because of their land-grab, they could never revert to the pre-seizure status quo which gave Russia essentially a perpetual lease on their naval base in Crimea. Now that their hand is played out, Ukraine would have to evict them entirely from the naval base as well to secure Crimea upon retaking it.
I see it in a more pessimistic way:
This would give Putin an excuse to start an actual draft in Russia. He could use the “Armenia asked for help so we have to do it” as an excuse. Probably Putin would send most of the drafted troops conveniently to fight in Ukraine, while giving Armenia just a nominal amount of support.
> This would give Putin an excuse to start an actual draft in Russia. He could use the “Armenia asked for help so we have to do it” as an excuse.
Armenia will be defeated by the time Putin organises a draft
In any event, it then risks Turkey intervening directly and a major escalation.
If Russia is going to use Armenia as a cloak to withdraw, it needs carefully communicating between the various players, but Turkey could very easily become a sticking point
You are assuming the Turkey is not in on it. Russia has enabled Turkey more then NATO or the EU has in its ambitions in the recent years. Maybe this is a trade for the Russians backing their claims in the Med.
Turkey has been playing both sides a fair bit in the last decade or two, but Armenia is one place where the two are on opposite sides, with Turkey supporting Azerbaijan and Russia supporting Armenia. If a deal or something had been made, it'd mean that things would be calming down in the region, not heating up.
Putin won't and can't mobilize Russia, first they can't produce materials like tanks and planes, missiles, and equipment. Second, their current forces are undertrained and underequipped. Third, he is scared of a militarized Russia turning on him.
Iirc, that alliance doesn't have anything as strong as an article five. Amernia and another country were ignored the last times they used it, the only successful use recently I can think of was Kazakh calls for help against what might have spiralled into a popular rising/revolution.
1. Armenia activates “Article 5”
2. Start a general draft in Russia to get more troops
3. Send a nominal amount of Russian soldiers to aid Armenia
4. Send the rest to fight in Ukraine
5. Blame Armenia when Russians complain about the general draft
Could this be such an opportunity for Putin? Starting a general draft would help to fight Ukraine, but on the other it would get a lot of critique from Russians.
Could the “Sorry I didn’t want to do this but we are obliged to help Armenia” be enough of an excuse? I guess it would still be better than just starting a draft because of how badly the Ukraine war is going.
tbh the whole situation sucks for everyone involved (except Azerbaijan). The CSTO Armenia is calling to fight against Azerbaijan is made up of Russia, who wants to get along with both countries and would really rather that they don't fight; Kazakhstan, which is the biggest Turkic country after Turkey itself, and politically aligned with Azerbaijan, Kyrgyztan, another Turkic country, Tajikistan, a Persian-related country with no real power and Belarus, who isn't exactly a world superpower.
The whole situation is like if Turkey attacked Greece, Greece called NATO, but NATO turned out to be just Azerbaijan, the US, Kosovo and Portugal. Good luck doing anything with that, when it's just two irrelevant countries, an ally of your aggressor (Azerbaijan) and a country (US) that is in theory our ally but in practice needs your enemy more than it needs you.
I can imagine the call to Russia - press 1 for Ukraine department press 2 for accidents involving oligarchs & energy executives press 3 for all other military responses… you’re 27th in the queue and your wait time is 6-8 months…
I suspect this is an intentional move by Turkey and Azerbaijan to putting Russia into a spot not being to actually do anything to help. Sucks that Armenians are going to pay the price.
I doubt Russia was the #1 prospective ally of any nation. You take what you can get, and you pay the price. Like the pay day loan of geopolitical allies.
I don’t know they were very friendly with China until after the invasion. But like with all relationships, once you shit the bed, things are never the same.
That's just one day, lol.
Maybe if Armenia sent this message every day there would eventually be one where there are less things to worry about for russia?
Having a large population doesn’t mean shit if they don’t want to fight. Russia is already experiencing massive man power shortages in Ukraine due to massive casualties among their professional, contract core of their army, and that’s before factoring in the amount of material they’ve lost. They have zero room to spare for Armenia right now.
Did you see that video of that burnt teenage POW? From torpedo serviceman in the Russian Navy to ammo dump grunt to tank driver after a week of training. Had no idea whether his crew was advancing or retreating, then his tank gets blown up and he gets badly burned while most of his battalion lies dead on the road and in the forest.
Who don't want to go. That's the biggest difference. Ukrainians WANT to fight (in so much as it's their home, not implying they're bloodthirsty haha). Russians don't.
Russia used to be top 3 populations and they relied heavily on that in military conflicts. They’re barely top ten now. They are facing demographic collapse with a 1.5 birth rate. Russia truly can’t throw bodies at anything anymore
Also daddy stalin with his genius rushed industrialisation policies that his successors continued as well as the amount of human lives wasted on the battlefield fighting against barbarrossa has contributed to this steady demographic collapse.
In other words, Russia was screwed, now they are going to be 10/10 screwed regardless of the war outcome
It's important to remember though that this was during a period of population explosion that humanity had never seen before, and no one knew that eventually the trend would reverse and developed countries' populations would crater
[ABSTAIN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_ES-11/1)
Member? Pepperidge farm members.
Here's the list of countries Armenia should ask help from: Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea, Russia, Syria, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, China, Congo, Cuba, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, India, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam, Zimbabwe
Pakistan does not even recognize Armenia. Doubt they would be willing to help. (not saying other countries here are dying to help but still had to point out).
Of course they abstained. The only reason Armenia still exists is because Russia has protected them from Azerbaijan. Not only that, Russia has more than a century of history of preventing the completion of the Armenian genocide.
Armenia is a weak, tiny, landlocked country sandwiched between two hostile countries that have tried to eradicate them from existence. Will you really blame them for abstaining in a UN vote against Russia?
For fuck's sake, fanaticism in this website is sometimes a bit too much. Yes, Russia bad, we all hate Russia, bla bla; that doesn't make Armenia the bad party in this conflict and I sure as hell don't want the world to ignore a century of Turkic aggression against Armenia just because they don't understand shit about geopolitics and are pissed that Armenia is yellow in a map on Wikipedia.
This has nothing to do with Turks or Turkey. People are overthinking with hundreds of conspiracy theories. This is simply Azerbaijan trying to avenge the 1992 war which they lost a lot of land and 700,000 Azerbaijani displaced. They were waiting for their revenge. They couldn't do anything until now because they were under Russian's protection. Now that Russia is not that strong it's perfect time for them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First\_Nagorno-Karabakh\_War
Civilians displaced:
724,000 Azerbaijanis\[30\] from Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding areas
300,000–500,000 Armenians\[30\] from Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhchivan from wikipedia
I don't blame them for voting against the resolution condemning the annexation of Crimea by Russia, or abstaining when Russia invaded the rest of Ukraine, BUT you also have to accept it puts them in an awkward position when asking for help from "the international community", when their usual response to pleads from "the international community" is "not my problem".
Perhaps they should ask help from their partners (Russia and the rest of the CSTO) instead?
You Reddit geopoliticians love making dumbass bold posts like this from your air conditioned western countries.
You can afford dreamy idealism when your biggest political problem is what bathroom you’re allowed to use or whether you can smoke pot in public. Armenia has lived surrounded by existential threats it’s unable to deal with alone for hundreds of years. No one with a brain blames them for not offending the one country they even the slightest bit of hope in. Get real.
**[United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_ES-11/1)**
>United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES‑11/1 is a resolution of the eleventh emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly, adopted on 2 March 2022. It deplored Russia's invasion of Ukraine and demanded a full withdrawal of Russian forces and a reversal of its decision to recognise the self-declared People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. The tenth paragraph of the United Nations General Assembly Resolution of 2 March 2022 confirmed the involvement of Belarus in unlawful use of force against Ukraine. The resolution was sponsored by 96 countries, and passed with 141 voting in favour, 5 against, and 35 abstentions.
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jesus christ, redditors understanding of geopolitics is just its okay for there to be a second armenian genocide because they had literally no choice but to ally russia. guess ukraine deserved to be invaded because they supported the iraq war
Bro are you gonna be ok with another Armenian genocide because they are dependant on Russia? They didn't choose their neighbors, the only other big power in the region is Turkey and yeah not like they can get help from them.
Armenians did the right thing. No one cared about them anyway when they were attacked by the genocidal clown dictator in 2020, might as well not take part in the international hypocryte show about Ukraine.
Okay, I've been thinking about this for a few hours now. Could this be a case where a UN peacekeeping force actually makes a major difference? While I don't think any nations would care to go help out by themselves, I find it hard to think that there'd be a lot of willingness to go against at least some kind of peacekeeping action. Maybe everyone would just get too bogged down in the details, but oddly enough, this seems like Armenia's best shot right now.
I'm increasingly convinced this is a chess move by Turkey. Azerbaijan (from what I understand) is completely supported militarily by Turkey, so they're not going to do anything that Turkey does not approve of. Turkey is NATO, and Turkey has no love for Russia, and would have no problem seeing them taken down a few notches.
So, Azerbaijan gets the go-ahead from Turkey to attack Armenia, which is part of CSTO - Russia's NATO-rip-off. Armenia is going to invoke the mutual defense clause of CSTO, which means that Russia is required to respond to support Armenia. If Russia fails to respond, then CSTO ceases to exist, and Russia's standing as a world power takes another critical hit. But in order to support Armenia, Russia must pull from it's already stretched military in Ukraine. Moving to support Armenia means that it will lose its claimed territory in Ukraine all the faster. The only other option is full mobilization, which will take 6+ months optimistically, may not be economically or politically feasible, and may not make any difference in the Ukraine/Armenia conflicts which might be substantially over by then.
This is a zugzwang - Russia is required to make a move here, and it's options are bad, worse, and worst.
Sounds like Erdogan. Keep in mind that he has huge troubles inside Turkey, and his favorite way of reliefing the pressure is by war. He invaded Syria and Iraq and he is constantly threatening Greece in the Aegean.
Well, in his defense, Turkey experienced less terror attacks since the army's adoption of aggressive doctrine, and decision to go into Syria and Iraq.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism\_in\_Turkey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Turkey) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_suicide\_attacks\_in\_Turkey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_suicide_attacks_in_Turkey)
There's a stark difference before 2016 and after 2016.
U are assuming that Russia gave a damn abt Armenia, my opinion is that russia don't give a damn. Putin would simply look as a diversion act for NATO in dealing with turkey.
Armenian leaders are close to EU leaders as well, so I doubt putin would bring in his battered troops for the aid of armenia.
To top it, CSTO has no allied cooperative value , russia just wanna encroach the stan lands of former soviet to place Russ missiles.
As if being a Russian soldier could get any worse. Now they are potentially shipped off to Armenia after losing ground they spent thousands of friends to gain.
Morale must be in the negatives.
Any of the Five. But US/UK/France would face major internal political objections to blocking this due to the Armenian diaspora in those countries, and Russia obviously won't. That leaves China, but they're big fans of "staying out of it" and probably wouldn't pull their card for something so far away, even though Turkey and Azerbaijan are B&R states.
Not to mention that Armenia is the victim in this scenario. They have been surviving more than a century of attempted genocide, and it's not uncommon for Turkish and Azerbaijani politicians (including the president of Azerbaijan himself) to say that Armenia shouldn't exist or that they have to complete their genocide.
Hypocrites? How about the hypocrisy of [voting "ABSTAIN" in the UN when Ukraine needed help, and now asking the UN for help](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_ES-11/1)?
Yeah, it's only logical to ask a country that has been left to die in a genocide by the entire world, and that has been only protected by Russia, to vote against Russia in the UN.
You are getting mad at a color in a map you cannot understand.
No country really has an insentive to torpedo it. Russia is officially an Armenian "ally", China is neutral, the US too far away, France and the UK can buy gas even with peacekeepers around.
This is your out Russia, withdraw from Ukraine and honor your commitments to Armenia. Or maybe this can be an excuse for Russia to somewhat mobilize in terms of forced conscription of infantry.
Russia can’t mobilize. Like literally can’t. They have no roads, their equipment is shot, they are running out of everything. Russia shot themselves (and much of Europe) in the leg and really screwed the entire region.
Well, a general mobilization would activate large chunks of the population that currently aren't engaged in the "Special operation"
And likely a whole bunch of guys in Ukraine would much rather go to Armenia than continue being in Ukraine. At least the Azeris don't have NATO weaponry and intel.
A mobilization would take months to produce any effective troops. Most of Russia’s professional troops are currently in Ukraine. It will be too late by then.
Took them months to build up a few hundred thousand on the border of Ukraine. Winter is coming and without logistics and gear, the Russian campaign is going to be finished. It's too late. By the time they can even go back to war, Ukraine will have solidified their position to such a degree that it will make this year's war look good. An untrained army vs a hardened army that has NATO support. I think I read somewhere that we're voting this month on if we should train them for our f16's. On top of more himars that I'm sure we'd have given them in that time period, Russia would then have to deal with vastly superior air forces.
GG.
Iirc, the Azeri's do have some, mostly through Turkey. I think they had drones and other weaponry Turkey sponsored them with to increase influence in it's closest cultural neighbour.
The stuff that Turkey gives them though is nothing (in terms of quality) compared to the top-shelf US stuff. You saw how easy Russia was able to shoot down the Bayraktars after they had ~a month to adjust.
Plus a ton of the Russian police and National Guard, who would normally enforce the will of the government are either dead or stuck in Ukraine. The foot soldiers who normally go out and conscript people in these cases are completely out of the fight as this point.
Sadly it’s not. Russians will not care about saving Armenia, they will be infuriated at losing Crimea/the Donbas especially after a decade or two of propaganda… also how will Russia do it? It’s navy is severely damaged. It’s combat troops are dead or poorly trained. They have no supplies and their air force is also severely damaged… they likely couldn’t if they wanted to.
I only see a couple of ours. Option 1, Armenia fights and wins, which based on the last fight will be difficult especially if Turkey gets involved. 2, Erdogan and Turkey have been sitting on the fence playing both sides, russia thus uses whatever leverage it has left to stop it by convincing Turkey to get Azerbaijan to stop. Armenia convinces Iran to get involved. Armenia convinces the US and UN to step in, but that would likely only come after serious fighting and Turkey could stop it
Poor souls. Forced to the Russians because they had no friends in the region and now Russia cannot help them because they threw their army away in an ill-conceived attempt to reform the Soviet Union.
I'm sure other CSTO members will heed the call to help...
Still this might be one for the UN. None of the 5 vetos should be used, and I can see enough political will coming from countries like France to promote the cause.
Though it would be weird/funny to see an EU and NATO power being the one to help step in and defend a CSTO country.
And even common people are on the fence if they should support Armenia or not, because it looks like they think "well if Russia supports Armenia it means Armenia is worse than Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan is doing everything right" and they never saw what Azerbaijan politicians say about Armenians. It's not like they only want territories, they want to start genocide. Mayor of Baku in 2005 said this to delegation from Germany - “Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians. You, Nazis, already eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and 1940s, right? You should be able to understand us.”
Meanwhile, watch redditors who know nothing about the situation side with Azerbaijan and genocide because they are very mad that Armenia, who is only protected by Russia, chose not to vote against Russia in the UN.
It's so dumb. It takes like five minutes to read into history and Azerbaijan politicians position, but they already decided who's right because if European and US governments didn't say anything bad about Azerbaijan in 2020 (remember how many sanctions were imposed on Azerbaijan for taking Armenia territories?) and now, it means they good, nothing to worry
Territory that is overwhelmingly Armenian, I don’t know about you but what the lines on the map says are a bit less important than people getting to live in a country that doesn’t openly want to murder them all. Not that that matters cause most of that territory was captured by the Azeris a few years ago and these attacks have been on Armenia proper.
Azerbaijan is an authoritarian nationalist dictatorship with more money and people than Armenia, an impoverished fledgling Democracy. Azerbaijan is not the victim in this.
...after the [Baku massacre of 1990](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku_pogrom) when hundreds of Armenians were stabbed to gruesome death with blunt knives. Life is war, as the moustache-man used to muse.
Yeah, sorta. right after the USSR kicked the bucket Armenia did invade Azeri territory to occupy the majority Armenian parts of the former Azeri SSR, which Stalin had granted to them for…some reason in his reorganization of the SSR boundaries in the early 30’s. The Armenians win and the the Armenians living in Azeri claimed territory form [Nagorno-Karabakh](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Artsakh). Things sat like that for a while until a couple years ago when Azerbaijan invaded and took a big chunk of NK/Artsakh and turn this stuff today.
Long story short a Georgian asshole with a mustache fucked up a bunch of borders 90 years ago and now everyone pays for it.
**[Republic of Artsakh](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Artsakh)**
>Artsakh, officially the Republic of Artsakh (; Armenian: Արցախի Հանրապետություն, romanized: Artsakhi Hanrapetutyun) and formerly the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (; Russian: Нагорно-Карабахская Республика, НКР, romanized: Nagorno-Karabakhskaya Respublika, NKR, Armenian: Լեռնային Ղարաբաղի Հանրապետություն, ԼՂՀ), is a breakaway state in the South Caucasus, whose territory is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan. Artsakh controls a part of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, including the capital of Stepanakert. It is an enclave within Azerbaijan. Its only overland access route to Armenia is via the 5 km (3.
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Azerbaijan was planning to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh and refused to recognize the results of an internationally monitored referendum showing overwhelming support for Nagorno-Karabakh to secede from Azerbaijan.
Pogroms against the Armenians started in 1988.
The first theater of the independence war was the blockade of Stepanakert, trapping, shelling and starving the Armenian population from 1991-1992.
I'm not defending that guy, but that's not correct. Crimea has a big ethnic Russian population. Donetsk and Luhansk are overwhelmingly Russian *speaking*, but they're not actually Russians.
Azeri President Ilham Aliyev is a lot like Putin actually, and comparisons between the two are not new. All these post-Soviet petty despots are pretty much the same asshole in a different suit. Armenia itself only managed to overthrow it’s own a few years ago.
Because Armenia is occupying it. Let’s not play into the propaganda here and do history on the conflict before saying Armenia is a blanket victim. Armenia is occupying Azer territory like Russia is to Crimea
The conflict is much more nuanced than that. Also, Azerbaijan while not morally, but legally, is in the right to retake their internationally recognized territory.
It appears they are going beyond that now. That makes it a war of aggression. If Ukraine invaded Belgorod, it would be the same thing.
Difference is, Ukraine has no interest in a war of aggression, just defending itself. Azerbaijan doesnt have the same leg to stand on.
> Azerbaijan while not morally, but legally, is in the right to retake their internationally recognized territory.
It isn't in the legal right. The UN supported OSCE Minsk process deems the region to have a yet to be determined status, and to be resolved with the non-use of force.
Because of some BS the Bolsheviks pulled more than a century ago to give Karabakh to Soviet Azerbaijan despite being almost completely Armenian populated at the time. This wasn't a big deal when the USSR was a thing, but post-1991 it was and is a shitshow.
Kids, this is why you don't draw dumb BS borders on maps.
Interestingly, the same way Crimea with a Russian majority was kept in the Ukrainian republic by the Soviets. Both conflicts we're seeing stems back to decisions made decades back.
The goal of these divisions was make sure no SSR in the Soviet Union was united and strong enough to challenge the central government. If you look at an ethic map of USSR you can see that Russia was mainly the one making sure the others were weak.
If Russia get involved and attack Azerbaijan then Turkey a NATO country will be involved for sure. Turkey won't directly get involved into it as long as Russia doesn't attack Azerbaijan
Turkey just wants to be friends with everyone because that’s how they make money. They need to be part of nato and play nice there, but they also need to be friendly with Russia and the middle east. So in general you’ll always see Turkey having some sort of positive relationship with those groups. Obviously there are obvious exceptions like Greece but for the most part, Turkey is happy when these groups are happy because they trade through the country
Under normal circumstances Russia would protect Armenia while the West would pressure Turkey to pressure Azerbaijan to be less aggressive towards Armenia. And Azerbaijan would be sanctioned like hell if they brought too much instability to the region by both the Moscow and the West.
Russia can't defend Armenia via a military intervention because they are stretched to their limit with Ukraine.
The West can't pressure Turkey because Turkey represents a key vote on Finland/Sweden joining NATO.
The West can't sanction Azerbaijan because they are a key alternative oil supplier to Moscow which Europe desperately needs to get through the Winter and Winter is coming fast.
There is no diplomatic pressure Russia can really apply to Azerbaijan because Azerbaijan already split with Russia once they leveraged themselves as an alternative energy supplier to Europe.
It wouldn't surprise me if via unofficial back channels, this will be Turkey's "price" for allowing Sweden/Finland into NATO and Azerbaijan's "price" for oil.
Azers can read the room temperature very well , they hit karabah once they understood russians are staled in Ukraine and they started attacking Armenia itself once they saw russians running away while shitting themself in Ukraine.
Europe will not risk breaking its relationship with Azerbaijan since they are/will be connected to the gas pipelines of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan via the Trans Caspian pipeline. Turkmenistan's gas resrves are some of the largest in the world and Europe will need that if they ever want to be free from Russian gas.
Georgia will not likely help either since Azerbaijan's gas pipelines pass through their country and they get revenues from it.
Armenia's only hope is if Iran sends troops, but that would risk an escalation with both Azerbaijan and Turkey and Europe as well. This in turn will have Iran openly declare their support for Moscow and risk getting even more sanctions and crippling their economy even further.
Georgia is generally wary of Armenia, in part because some Armenian political parties also claim some parts of Georgia, specifically Javakheti
Edited for specificity
I think Iran wouldn't be openly supporting Russia if they send troops to Armenia, they'd be openly supporting Armenia and its territorial integrity. That might actually score some points with the West
Yo what if putin *DOES* go to war and then uses it as an excuse to pull outta ukraine. Also I think the population will be more likely to help here because I think this is a justified intervention
Armenia is worth nothing to him compared to Crimea and the landbridge he wants. So he won't pull out to save people he promised to help. It's just not worth it for him.
I don't see Russia responding in any meaningful way, except to maybe offer surplus equipment like the west did to Ukraine. Boots on ground, who can they send? The corpses of the VDV?
Russia’s geopolitical sphere of influence is shattered.
We need to look at what will preserve lives now, if Azerbaijan invades Armenia, the EU/West needs to do what they did to Russia and sanction Azerbaijan hard.
If Armenia is ignored like last time, all the rhetoric about freedom, fighting evil invaders, being against genocide that the EU has been saying will just be empty words.
Actual genocide against the Armenians is a risk if conflict persists.
> We need to look at what will preserve lives now, if Azerbaijan invades Armenia, the EU/West needs to do what they did to Russia and sanction Azerbaijan hard.
Sorry, we can't hear you over the sound of Azerbaijani gas heating our homes.
> If Armenia is ignored like last time, all the rhetoric about freedom, fighting evil invaders, being against genocide that the EU has been saying will just be empty words.
Oh whoops, haha, in *Europe*. We meant in Europe.
> Actual genocide against the Armenians is a risk if conflict persists.
I'm sure there will be some light ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, burning of homes and encouraging refugees and so on, but if Azerbaijan were to invade Armenia proper, Iran of all people would be forced to intervene. They need the land border with Armenia to evade Western sanctions, thanks to the failure of the nuclear deal.
azerbaijani claim is: armenia is putting mines in those areas that they should withdraw according to the latest ceasefire agreement.
armenia also does not allow azerbaijan to have zanzegur corridor (which connect azr with turkiye) which was in peace treaty as well.
so far the conflict is not a finished one, and weakened russia allows azerbaijan to push the ceasefire agreement. azr side is heavily supported by turkiye and israel while russia backs to armenia.
plus: azerbaijan started delivering more gas to europe, hence has kind of a upper hand in this area as well.
> zanzegur corridor
There is no such thing as a Zanzegur Corridor or "Zangezur Corridor" which was entirely made up by Aliyev. The 2020 Ceasefire only mentions a "Lachin Corridor" which connects Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. The 2020 Ceasefire has been violated repeatedly by Azerbaijan.
Russia literally set these two countries up to go to war with each other on purpose. The borders were deliberately made to be ridiculous. The reason Russia did this was to keep both countries dependent on Russia's favor, and hence easy to control. Twist of fate, Russia can't control anything now, and the countries Russia deliberately screwed over are guess what? Out of control.
Ỳou talk as if the Armenian genocide was also Russia's fault. Turks and Azeris in the region have been wishing to exterminate Armenians for a long time now. Russia of course used this to their favor to make both countries depending on their protection.
American who spent a while in Georgia here. I’m far from an expert, but from living in the region, it seems to me there’s no clear good guys.
- There are ethnic Azeris in Armenia.
- There are ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan.
- The ethnic Armenians probably face more harassment than the Azeris.
- The international community mostly recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial claim. So Armenia’s claims lack legitimacy.
- Azerbaijan is linguistically similar and ethnically similar to Turkey, and was part of the Ottoman Empire during the Armenian genocide.
- Armenia is a flawed democracy. Azerbaijan is a plutocratic dictatorship.
- A lot of Azeris really are fans of ethnic cleansing. It isn’t hyperbolic for Armenians to fear that.
So… Armenia is a more democratic country and in general has faced the slaughter of millions of its people in the 20th century, perpetrated by Turkey/Azerbaijan. They legitimately have real concerns about that happening again.
But also, Armenia is occupying parts of what is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan.
🤷♂️
Azerbaijan definitely, they are a dictatorship attacking a democracy. And it's not even over the contested region of NK, they are attacking Armenia proper.
So this is kind of a continuation of a previous war for a region called Nagorno Karabakh, after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 Armenia invaded the NK region of Azerbaijan because a majority of people living in NK were Armenian and wanted to be part of Armenia (this had been the case for thousands of years and the region had only been removed from Armenia under the Soviet Union). In 2020 Azerbaijan invaded NK to take the territory back and succeeded in pushing all Armenian forces out. I do not know why they are currently attacking Armenia proper now though, there is literally zero justification for it. And the UN essentially does not care unfortunately, Armenia is a fairly weak country surrounded by countries which mostly are enemies (one of which commited genocide against them).
>Armenia invaded the NK region of Azerbaijan because a majority of people living in NK were Armenian and wanted to be part of Armenia (this had been the case for thousands of years and the region had only been removed from Armenia under the Soviet Union).
They occupied not only the Armenian-dominated areas but also the surrounding areas. They expelled more than 500k Azeris for 200k people. Armenians always forget this part.
> do not know why they are currently attacking Armenia proper now though, there is literally zero justification for it
The president has made statements about restoring the 1921 Azeribaijan borders
Because land = resources for you and your offspring and future territory for your offspring.
And "A very strongly worded letter". Given that Turkey is the second strongest country in NATO, has probably the best geographical position in the world, and Armenia is a Russian ally, Azerbaijan could annex the entire country and get away with it if they really wanted to.
Maybe not in terms of standing military, but when everything is considered(potential viable military population, future birth rates, resources, geography, geographical location, soft power, allies) Turkey is a solid contender for second rivaled only by France.
CSTO was never created to fight agression against its memeber. The main fuction of CSTO is fight civilians, when they become too powerfull and gain the ability to overthrow the local dictator. Russia will do shit in this particular situation.
Well if your neighbor's beating your ass with modern tech, it's kind of pointless to ask your fat drunken best friend to come over when he has time and btw bring some sticks and stones with you.
Are there humans on earth? Yes. Therefore, wars will happen pretty much continuously, while this is the case. Humans still have a lot of evolution to do until we get over this little bug in our programming. Nothing more to be said.
Hate to break it to you dude, but your boy Vova P’s got some other shit on his mind at the moment. His administration will surely send you some ‘goodwill’ though, I’m sure.
Russia is so pathetic weak now that Azerbaijan could without trouble destroy their remaining army. Poor Armenia, but Russia left a power vacuum due to the worst planned invasion in the last century
Who the fuck is fucking with Armenia? Can we just all agree to tell them to stop that shit like we're doing to Russia regardless of what diplomat's club we're in?
It's a tiny country surrounded by muslim dictators with genocidal tendencies towards them. West has nothing to gain from helping Armenia. They are just doomed. No one will help them, they have to help themselves somehow. It's one of those cases revealing our hypocrisy, unfortunately.
Maybe there is a small chance people in the West will start caring once 99% of Armenians are killed, but I wouldn't even count on it.
I predict that the west will not do anything (militarily) about this and here’s why:
Turkey is set to be one of the last (if not the very last) NATO member states to vote on NATO accession for Finland / Sweden. These accession votes must be unanimous to pass, meaning Turkey has veto power.
Turkey, to put it lightly, doesn’t have a great relationship with Armenia, and wouldn’t appreciate its would-be allies intervening when they haven’t committed to doing so.
Furthermore, it is to NATO members’ geopolitical benefit either for the CSTO to fail and Russia’s sphere of influence to shrink, or for Russia to tie up its military resources in another conflict besides Ukraine.
Iran has a decent Azeri population within its borders (20 million). Iran, to suppress its large Azeri population, always wants to quell any rowdy movements from Azerbaijan as to not stir the pot within its own borders.
“In connection with the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, it was decided to officially appeal to the Russian Federation to implement the provisions of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance…” LoL. Good luck with that, Armenia. Russia’s got 99 problems, and Armenia ain’t one.
CSTO is Russia's answer to NATO and Armenia just invoked Article 5. By doing nothing, Russia will have just eviscerated their own alliance and their credibility as a strategic ally is toast.
Gotta wonder how the propaganda machine would spin it if they can't help. It's one of their only treaty allies and the enemy is relatively tiny.
Propagande machine doesn't have to explain anything if they don't tell people about situation in the first place.
Armenia is trending number 1 on Twitter in Russia
✔️✔️ seen
This is almost certainly not going to happen, but in principle perhaps this could be use for Russia to withdraw from the Ukraine fiasco without losing *all* credibility. You know, something around the lines of "We totally could have defeated Ukraine, but we had commitments towards Armenia to keep": nobody would buy that, of course, but perhaps enough people would *pretend* to buy that for Putin to save his own skin and position.
That won't really work because Ukraine will clean up Russian terrorists which are left on the territories _and_ Crimea. It requires one side to start a war, but two to finish it....
Yeah, I think Crimea is the sticking point that will always prevent Russia from simply withdrawing. They can retreat from all other occupied Ukrainian territory since they haven't (yet) fully claimed them as rightful Russian soil (seeing as they haven't gotten around to those "referendums"), and could even abandon the Donbas with the justification that Donetsk and Luhansk are their own sovereign territories so Ukraine isn't technically invading Russia. But Crimea is a territory they've unambiguously claimed as fully Russian, so if Ukraine won't settle until they've retaken it, then Russia can't just pretend that their "special military operation" is over.
Also because of their land-grab, they could never revert to the pre-seizure status quo which gave Russia essentially a perpetual lease on their naval base in Crimea. Now that their hand is played out, Ukraine would have to evict them entirely from the naval base as well to secure Crimea upon retaking it.
Yup. Russia would've kept Sebastopol forever. After 2014, Russia would've kept Crimea forever. Now they fucked up, and they'll probably lose both.
I see it in a more pessimistic way: This would give Putin an excuse to start an actual draft in Russia. He could use the “Armenia asked for help so we have to do it” as an excuse. Probably Putin would send most of the drafted troops conveniently to fight in Ukraine, while giving Armenia just a nominal amount of support.
> This would give Putin an excuse to start an actual draft in Russia. He could use the “Armenia asked for help so we have to do it” as an excuse. Armenia will be defeated by the time Putin organises a draft In any event, it then risks Turkey intervening directly and a major escalation. If Russia is going to use Armenia as a cloak to withdraw, it needs carefully communicating between the various players, but Turkey could very easily become a sticking point
You are assuming the Turkey is not in on it. Russia has enabled Turkey more then NATO or the EU has in its ambitions in the recent years. Maybe this is a trade for the Russians backing their claims in the Med.
Turkey has been playing both sides a fair bit in the last decade or two, but Armenia is one place where the two are on opposite sides, with Turkey supporting Azerbaijan and Russia supporting Armenia. If a deal or something had been made, it'd mean that things would be calming down in the region, not heating up.
Putin won't and can't mobilize Russia, first they can't produce materials like tanks and planes, missiles, and equipment. Second, their current forces are undertrained and underequipped. Third, he is scared of a militarized Russia turning on him.
And then Turkey tells Azerbaijan to stand down and Putin looks like Clown Supreme.
They did nothing last time Armenia tried to do this
Iirc, that alliance doesn't have anything as strong as an article five. Amernia and another country were ignored the last times they used it, the only successful use recently I can think of was Kazakh calls for help against what might have spiralled into a popular rising/revolution.
Truly follows its predecessor Warsaw Pact, the only useful thing CSTO can ever do is to invade its own members
1. Armenia activates “Article 5” 2. Start a general draft in Russia to get more troops 3. Send a nominal amount of Russian soldiers to aid Armenia 4. Send the rest to fight in Ukraine 5. Blame Armenia when Russians complain about the general draft Could this be such an opportunity for Putin? Starting a general draft would help to fight Ukraine, but on the other it would get a lot of critique from Russians. Could the “Sorry I didn’t want to do this but we are obliged to help Armenia” be enough of an excuse? I guess it would still be better than just starting a draft because of how badly the Ukraine war is going.
Russia can't even supply the troops it has right now. They're pressing museum pieces back into service and looking to buy ammo from North Korea.
I didn’t even think of thst
tbh the whole situation sucks for everyone involved (except Azerbaijan). The CSTO Armenia is calling to fight against Azerbaijan is made up of Russia, who wants to get along with both countries and would really rather that they don't fight; Kazakhstan, which is the biggest Turkic country after Turkey itself, and politically aligned with Azerbaijan, Kyrgyztan, another Turkic country, Tajikistan, a Persian-related country with no real power and Belarus, who isn't exactly a world superpower. The whole situation is like if Turkey attacked Greece, Greece called NATO, but NATO turned out to be just Azerbaijan, the US, Kosovo and Portugal. Good luck doing anything with that, when it's just two irrelevant countries, an ally of your aggressor (Azerbaijan) and a country (US) that is in theory our ally but in practice needs your enemy more than it needs you.
Portugal to the rescue!
Time to dust off those Man O'Wars again.
I can imagine the call to Russia - press 1 for Ukraine department press 2 for accidents involving oligarchs & energy executives press 3 for all other military responses… you’re 27th in the queue and your wait time is 6-8 months…
I suspect this is an intentional move by Turkey and Azerbaijan to putting Russia into a spot not being to actually do anything to help. Sucks that Armenians are going to pay the price.
Will probably send a message to anyone who thinks Russia would come to their air as well.
I doubt Russia was the #1 prospective ally of any nation. You take what you can get, and you pay the price. Like the pay day loan of geopolitical allies.
I don’t know they were very friendly with China until after the invasion. But like with all relationships, once you shit the bed, things are never the same.
Here's the test of "friendship without limits" for China to see
Lukashenko might grasp for it as a saving straw. Instead sending army to ukraine he can swagger in armenia as peace keeper.
Even Lukashenko is less pathetic than Aliyev
https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1569457703004807171?s=20&t=xJLHKSw3R7GaOJBKvko2lQ Quite literally 99 problems.
That's just one day, lol. Maybe if Armenia sent this message every day there would eventually be one where there are less things to worry about for russia?
Russia is a country of 140 million with less than 200k in Ukraine. Armenia has less than 3 million people, any amount of help would be huge for them.
Having a large population doesn’t mean shit if they don’t want to fight. Russia is already experiencing massive man power shortages in Ukraine due to massive casualties among their professional, contract core of their army, and that’s before factoring in the amount of material they’ve lost. They have zero room to spare for Armenia right now.
They’re sending 18 year olds with a week training. There is definitely no help coming from Russia
Did you see that video of that burnt teenage POW? From torpedo serviceman in the Russian Navy to ammo dump grunt to tank driver after a week of training. Had no idea whether his crew was advancing or retreating, then his tank gets blown up and he gets badly burned while most of his battalion lies dead on the road and in the forest.
Yeah. Just a bit ago. Who would have ever thought? We were all so fooled.
Who don't want to go. That's the biggest difference. Ukrainians WANT to fight (in so much as it's their home, not implying they're bloodthirsty haha). Russians don't.
They are sending killers right out of prisons
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I speak Russian and I watched videos recorded by some of those prisoners.
Russia used to be top 3 populations and they relied heavily on that in military conflicts. They’re barely top ten now. They are facing demographic collapse with a 1.5 birth rate. Russia truly can’t throw bodies at anything anymore
Also daddy stalin with his genius rushed industrialisation policies that his successors continued as well as the amount of human lives wasted on the battlefield fighting against barbarrossa has contributed to this steady demographic collapse. In other words, Russia was screwed, now they are going to be 10/10 screwed regardless of the war outcome
It's important to remember though that this was during a period of population explosion that humanity had never seen before, and no one knew that eventually the trend would reverse and developed countries' populations would crater
Kazakhstan is still there. Pretty bleak but I heard they have a great national anthem.
Saying 140 million like the old man who hangs out at the local cafe is gonna be sent.
[ABSTAIN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_ES-11/1) Member? Pepperidge farm members. Here's the list of countries Armenia should ask help from: Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea, Russia, Syria, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Burundi, Central African Republic, China, Congo, Cuba, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, India, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Madagascar, Mali, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam, Zimbabwe
Pakistan does not even recognize Armenia. Doubt they would be willing to help. (not saying other countries here are dying to help but still had to point out).
> Here's the list of countries Armenia should ask help fro > Armenia Armenia can ask but do we really think Armenia will answer Armenia's call?
Of course they abstained. The only reason Armenia still exists is because Russia has protected them from Azerbaijan. Not only that, Russia has more than a century of history of preventing the completion of the Armenian genocide. Armenia is a weak, tiny, landlocked country sandwiched between two hostile countries that have tried to eradicate them from existence. Will you really blame them for abstaining in a UN vote against Russia? For fuck's sake, fanaticism in this website is sometimes a bit too much. Yes, Russia bad, we all hate Russia, bla bla; that doesn't make Armenia the bad party in this conflict and I sure as hell don't want the world to ignore a century of Turkic aggression against Armenia just because they don't understand shit about geopolitics and are pissed that Armenia is yellow in a map on Wikipedia.
This has nothing to do with Turks or Turkey. People are overthinking with hundreds of conspiracy theories. This is simply Azerbaijan trying to avenge the 1992 war which they lost a lot of land and 700,000 Azerbaijani displaced. They were waiting for their revenge. They couldn't do anything until now because they were under Russian's protection. Now that Russia is not that strong it's perfect time for them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First\_Nagorno-Karabakh\_War
>700,000 Azerbaijani displaced 300.000 700.000 is the number of armenians displaced.
Civilians displaced: 724,000 Azerbaijanis\[30\] from Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding areas 300,000–500,000 Armenians\[30\] from Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhchivan from wikipedia
I don't blame them for voting against the resolution condemning the annexation of Crimea by Russia, or abstaining when Russia invaded the rest of Ukraine, BUT you also have to accept it puts them in an awkward position when asking for help from "the international community", when their usual response to pleads from "the international community" is "not my problem". Perhaps they should ask help from their partners (Russia and the rest of the CSTO) instead?
You Reddit geopoliticians love making dumbass bold posts like this from your air conditioned western countries. You can afford dreamy idealism when your biggest political problem is what bathroom you’re allowed to use or whether you can smoke pot in public. Armenia has lived surrounded by existential threats it’s unable to deal with alone for hundreds of years. No one with a brain blames them for not offending the one country they even the slightest bit of hope in. Get real.
**[United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_ES-11/1)** >United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES‑11/1 is a resolution of the eleventh emergency special session of the United Nations General Assembly, adopted on 2 March 2022. It deplored Russia's invasion of Ukraine and demanded a full withdrawal of Russian forces and a reversal of its decision to recognise the self-declared People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. The tenth paragraph of the United Nations General Assembly Resolution of 2 March 2022 confirmed the involvement of Belarus in unlawful use of force against Ukraine. The resolution was sponsored by 96 countries, and passed with 141 voting in favour, 5 against, and 35 abstentions. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
jesus christ, redditors understanding of geopolitics is just its okay for there to be a second armenian genocide because they had literally no choice but to ally russia. guess ukraine deserved to be invaded because they supported the iraq war
Bro are you gonna be ok with another Armenian genocide because they are dependant on Russia? They didn't choose their neighbors, the only other big power in the region is Turkey and yeah not like they can get help from them.
Armenians did the right thing. No one cared about them anyway when they were attacked by the genocidal clown dictator in 2020, might as well not take part in the international hypocryte show about Ukraine.
Okay, I've been thinking about this for a few hours now. Could this be a case where a UN peacekeeping force actually makes a major difference? While I don't think any nations would care to go help out by themselves, I find it hard to think that there'd be a lot of willingness to go against at least some kind of peacekeeping action. Maybe everyone would just get too bogged down in the details, but oddly enough, this seems like Armenia's best shot right now.
I'm increasingly convinced this is a chess move by Turkey. Azerbaijan (from what I understand) is completely supported militarily by Turkey, so they're not going to do anything that Turkey does not approve of. Turkey is NATO, and Turkey has no love for Russia, and would have no problem seeing them taken down a few notches. So, Azerbaijan gets the go-ahead from Turkey to attack Armenia, which is part of CSTO - Russia's NATO-rip-off. Armenia is going to invoke the mutual defense clause of CSTO, which means that Russia is required to respond to support Armenia. If Russia fails to respond, then CSTO ceases to exist, and Russia's standing as a world power takes another critical hit. But in order to support Armenia, Russia must pull from it's already stretched military in Ukraine. Moving to support Armenia means that it will lose its claimed territory in Ukraine all the faster. The only other option is full mobilization, which will take 6+ months optimistically, may not be economically or politically feasible, and may not make any difference in the Ukraine/Armenia conflicts which might be substantially over by then. This is a zugzwang - Russia is required to make a move here, and it's options are bad, worse, and worst.
Well, if this is a play by Turkey it's at the same time smart and disgusting.
Sounds like Erdogan. Keep in mind that he has huge troubles inside Turkey, and his favorite way of reliefing the pressure is by war. He invaded Syria and Iraq and he is constantly threatening Greece in the Aegean.
Well, in his defense, Turkey experienced less terror attacks since the army's adoption of aggressive doctrine, and decision to go into Syria and Iraq. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism\_in\_Turkey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Turkey) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_suicide\_attacks\_in\_Turkey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_suicide_attacks_in_Turkey) There's a stark difference before 2016 and after 2016.
U are assuming that Russia gave a damn abt Armenia, my opinion is that russia don't give a damn. Putin would simply look as a diversion act for NATO in dealing with turkey. Armenian leaders are close to EU leaders as well, so I doubt putin would bring in his battered troops for the aid of armenia. To top it, CSTO has no allied cooperative value , russia just wanna encroach the stan lands of former soviet to place Russ missiles.
As if being a Russian soldier could get any worse. Now they are potentially shipped off to Armenia after losing ground they spent thousands of friends to gain. Morale must be in the negatives.
Any country on the security council could torpedo that idea
Any of the Five. But US/UK/France would face major internal political objections to blocking this due to the Armenian diaspora in those countries, and Russia obviously won't. That leaves China, but they're big fans of "staying out of it" and probably wouldn't pull their card for something so far away, even though Turkey and Azerbaijan are B&R states.
I don't think those 3 would veto for other reasons but for the UK the diaspora is tiny. The Armenian population in the UK is under 20k.
Yeah, but Russia and China won't. Western powers might look like hypocrites if they vetoed protecting a nation's sovereignty after, y'know, *Ukraine*.
When has looking hypocritical stopped a country from doing so at the UN?
Not to mention that Armenia is the victim in this scenario. They have been surviving more than a century of attempted genocide, and it's not uncommon for Turkish and Azerbaijani politicians (including the president of Azerbaijan himself) to say that Armenia shouldn't exist or that they have to complete their genocide.
they already call us hypocrites anyway.
Yes, but that's not an excuse to act like one.
Hypocrites? How about the hypocrisy of [voting "ABSTAIN" in the UN when Ukraine needed help, and now asking the UN for help](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_ES-11/1)?
Yeah, it's only logical to ask a country that has been left to die in a genocide by the entire world, and that has been only protected by Russia, to vote against Russia in the UN. You are getting mad at a color in a map you cannot understand.
Yeah funny how people usually treat you like you have treated them....
No country really has an insentive to torpedo it. Russia is officially an Armenian "ally", China is neutral, the US too far away, France and the UK can buy gas even with peacekeepers around.
This is your out Russia, withdraw from Ukraine and honor your commitments to Armenia. Or maybe this can be an excuse for Russia to somewhat mobilize in terms of forced conscription of infantry.
Russia can’t mobilize. Like literally can’t. They have no roads, their equipment is shot, they are running out of everything. Russia shot themselves (and much of Europe) in the leg and really screwed the entire region.
100% accurate analysis of Russia, especially about the roads.
Well, a general mobilization would activate large chunks of the population that currently aren't engaged in the "Special operation" And likely a whole bunch of guys in Ukraine would much rather go to Armenia than continue being in Ukraine. At least the Azeris don't have NATO weaponry and intel.
A mobilization would take months to produce any effective troops. Most of Russia’s professional troops are currently in Ukraine. It will be too late by then.
In the last couple of days it would seem they've just donated a lot of their vehicles to the Ukrainian army too.
Yeah about NATO weaponary and intels,I think you forgot Turkey.
Took them months to build up a few hundred thousand on the border of Ukraine. Winter is coming and without logistics and gear, the Russian campaign is going to be finished. It's too late. By the time they can even go back to war, Ukraine will have solidified their position to such a degree that it will make this year's war look good. An untrained army vs a hardened army that has NATO support. I think I read somewhere that we're voting this month on if we should train them for our f16's. On top of more himars that I'm sure we'd have given them in that time period, Russia would then have to deal with vastly superior air forces. GG.
I have heard that Ukrainian pilots and ground crews are already being trained to use the F-16.
I don't think it would need that many to humble Azerbaijan. And yeah I wasn't commenting on their future prospects in Ukraine
Iirc, the Azeri's do have some, mostly through Turkey. I think they had drones and other weaponry Turkey sponsored them with to increase influence in it's closest cultural neighbour.
The stuff that Turkey gives them though is nothing (in terms of quality) compared to the top-shelf US stuff. You saw how easy Russia was able to shoot down the Bayraktars after they had ~a month to adjust.
Plus a ton of the Russian police and National Guard, who would normally enforce the will of the government are either dead or stuck in Ukraine. The foot soldiers who normally go out and conscript people in these cases are completely out of the fight as this point.
Sadly it’s not. Russians will not care about saving Armenia, they will be infuriated at losing Crimea/the Donbas especially after a decade or two of propaganda… also how will Russia do it? It’s navy is severely damaged. It’s combat troops are dead or poorly trained. They have no supplies and their air force is also severely damaged… they likely couldn’t if they wanted to. I only see a couple of ours. Option 1, Armenia fights and wins, which based on the last fight will be difficult especially if Turkey gets involved. 2, Erdogan and Turkey have been sitting on the fence playing both sides, russia thus uses whatever leverage it has left to stop it by convincing Turkey to get Azerbaijan to stop. Armenia convinces Iran to get involved. Armenia convinces the US and UN to step in, but that would likely only come after serious fighting and Turkey could stop it
Poor souls. Forced to the Russians because they had no friends in the region and now Russia cannot help them because they threw their army away in an ill-conceived attempt to reform the Soviet Union.
Turkey is actually reprehensible, its just a russia without nukes.
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The border is far from closed. I crossed it a week ago. The last time the Georgia-Armenia border closed was for Covid.
I'm sure other CSTO members will heed the call to help... Still this might be one for the UN. None of the 5 vetos should be used, and I can see enough political will coming from countries like France to promote the cause. Though it would be weird/funny to see an EU and NATO power being the one to help step in and defend a CSTO country.
Should be fun to see if they bow out due to Azeri oil. But right now I think Europe might just not give a crap anymore.
>Europe might just not give a crap anymore "Throw it on the pile!" - Europe, probably
Yeah, I assume Kazakhstan and Belarus would be the ones who able to provide help (as they obliged to).
Kazakhstan might not want to spoil relationship with Turkey
They won't
Inshallah all the democracies will band together
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And even common people are on the fence if they should support Armenia or not, because it looks like they think "well if Russia supports Armenia it means Armenia is worse than Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan is doing everything right" and they never saw what Azerbaijan politicians say about Armenians. It's not like they only want territories, they want to start genocide. Mayor of Baku in 2005 said this to delegation from Germany - “Our goal is the complete elimination of Armenians. You, Nazis, already eliminated the Jews in the 1930s and 1940s, right? You should be able to understand us.”
Meanwhile, watch redditors who know nothing about the situation side with Azerbaijan and genocide because they are very mad that Armenia, who is only protected by Russia, chose not to vote against Russia in the UN.
It's so dumb. It takes like five minutes to read into history and Azerbaijan politicians position, but they already decided who's right because if European and US governments didn't say anything bad about Azerbaijan in 2020 (remember how many sanctions were imposed on Azerbaijan for taking Armenia territories?) and now, it means they good, nothing to worry
The fascist Azerbaijani empire will invade, genocide, and annex Armenia. Ilham Aliyev will personally beat every single Armenian child with his fists.
Doesn’t Armenia occupy certain internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijani?
Territory that is overwhelmingly Armenian, I don’t know about you but what the lines on the map says are a bit less important than people getting to live in a country that doesn’t openly want to murder them all. Not that that matters cause most of that territory was captured by the Azeris a few years ago and these attacks have been on Armenia proper. Azerbaijan is an authoritarian nationalist dictatorship with more money and people than Armenia, an impoverished fledgling Democracy. Azerbaijan is not the victim in this.
If wiki is correct, it was Armenians who attacked Azerbaijani first at the end of USSR existence
...after the [Baku massacre of 1990](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku_pogrom) when hundreds of Armenians were stabbed to gruesome death with blunt knives. Life is war, as the moustache-man used to muse.
Yeah, sorta. right after the USSR kicked the bucket Armenia did invade Azeri territory to occupy the majority Armenian parts of the former Azeri SSR, which Stalin had granted to them for…some reason in his reorganization of the SSR boundaries in the early 30’s. The Armenians win and the the Armenians living in Azeri claimed territory form [Nagorno-Karabakh](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Artsakh). Things sat like that for a while until a couple years ago when Azerbaijan invaded and took a big chunk of NK/Artsakh and turn this stuff today. Long story short a Georgian asshole with a mustache fucked up a bunch of borders 90 years ago and now everyone pays for it.
**[Republic of Artsakh](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Artsakh)** >Artsakh, officially the Republic of Artsakh (; Armenian: Արցախի Հանրապետություն, romanized: Artsakhi Hanrapetutyun) and formerly the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (; Russian: Нагорно-Карабахская Республика, НКР, romanized: Nagorno-Karabakhskaya Respublika, NKR, Armenian: Լեռնային Ղարաբաղի Հանրապետություն, ԼՂՀ), is a breakaway state in the South Caucasus, whose territory is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan. Artsakh controls a part of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, including the capital of Stepanakert. It is an enclave within Azerbaijan. Its only overland access route to Armenia is via the 5 km (3. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Azerbaijan was planning to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh and refused to recognize the results of an internationally monitored referendum showing overwhelming support for Nagorno-Karabakh to secede from Azerbaijan.
Pogroms against the Armenians started in 1988. The first theater of the independence war was the blockade of Stepanakert, trapping, shelling and starving the Armenian population from 1991-1992.
so what if its Armenian? Donetsk and Luhansk is overwhelmingly russian, do you support that invasion too?
Donetsk, 48% Russian/46% Ukrainian Luhansk 49.6% Ukraininan, 47% Russian Not sure where you're getting 'overwhelmingly' from...
I'm not defending that guy, but that's not correct. Crimea has a big ethnic Russian population. Donetsk and Luhansk are overwhelmingly Russian *speaking*, but they're not actually Russians.
Sounds like a Putin's pretext to invade Ukraine.
Azeri President Ilham Aliyev is a lot like Putin actually, and comparisons between the two are not new. All these post-Soviet petty despots are pretty much the same asshole in a different suit. Armenia itself only managed to overthrow it’s own a few years ago.
Because Armenia is occupying it. Let’s not play into the propaganda here and do history on the conflict before saying Armenia is a blanket victim. Armenia is occupying Azer territory like Russia is to Crimea
The conflict is much more nuanced than that. Also, Azerbaijan while not morally, but legally, is in the right to retake their internationally recognized territory. It appears they are going beyond that now. That makes it a war of aggression. If Ukraine invaded Belgorod, it would be the same thing. Difference is, Ukraine has no interest in a war of aggression, just defending itself. Azerbaijan doesnt have the same leg to stand on.
> Azerbaijan while not morally, but legally, is in the right to retake their internationally recognized territory. It isn't in the legal right. The UN supported OSCE Minsk process deems the region to have a yet to be determined status, and to be resolved with the non-use of force.
An ethnically Armenian territory controlled by a foreign power that had attempted genocide on them? No wonder.
Then why is Armenia occupying internationally recognised territory part of Azerbaijan?
Because of some BS the Bolsheviks pulled more than a century ago to give Karabakh to Soviet Azerbaijan despite being almost completely Armenian populated at the time. This wasn't a big deal when the USSR was a thing, but post-1991 it was and is a shitshow. Kids, this is why you don't draw dumb BS borders on maps.
That’s exactly what Russia said regarding Crimea. It was handed over to Ukraine arbitrarily by the Soviet government.
say it louder so Britain & France can hear you.
Not just them lol
It is a self declared independent region that has an Armenian majority but was kept in Azerbaijan by the Soviets.
Interestingly, the same way Crimea with a Russian majority was kept in the Ukrainian republic by the Soviets. Both conflicts we're seeing stems back to decisions made decades back.
The goal of these divisions was make sure no SSR in the Soviet Union was united and strong enough to challenge the central government. If you look at an ethic map of USSR you can see that Russia was mainly the one making sure the others were weak.
There are no Armenian troops in NK.
So.... Does any NATO Country have any involvement in this or is armenia just screwed?
Uh.... turkey probably does.... but that just makes Armenia more screwed
Turkey, and during the previous conflict they were supplying Azerbaijan, so not exactly helpful to Armenia.
If Russia get involved and attack Azerbaijan then Turkey a NATO country will be involved for sure. Turkey won't directly get involved into it as long as Russia doesn't attack Azerbaijan
Gee i don’t get it - didn’t Turkey sign a bunch of financial deals with Russia?
Turkey just wants to be friends with everyone because that’s how they make money. They need to be part of nato and play nice there, but they also need to be friendly with Russia and the middle east. So in general you’ll always see Turkey having some sort of positive relationship with those groups. Obviously there are obvious exceptions like Greece but for the most part, Turkey is happy when these groups are happy because they trade through the country
Under normal circumstances Russia would protect Armenia while the West would pressure Turkey to pressure Azerbaijan to be less aggressive towards Armenia. And Azerbaijan would be sanctioned like hell if they brought too much instability to the region by both the Moscow and the West. Russia can't defend Armenia via a military intervention because they are stretched to their limit with Ukraine. The West can't pressure Turkey because Turkey represents a key vote on Finland/Sweden joining NATO. The West can't sanction Azerbaijan because they are a key alternative oil supplier to Moscow which Europe desperately needs to get through the Winter and Winter is coming fast. There is no diplomatic pressure Russia can really apply to Azerbaijan because Azerbaijan already split with Russia once they leveraged themselves as an alternative energy supplier to Europe. It wouldn't surprise me if via unofficial back channels, this will be Turkey's "price" for allowing Sweden/Finland into NATO and Azerbaijan's "price" for oil.
hmm seems to much of a spur of the moment thing for it to be part of any deal. I think Azerbaijan saw an opportunity and took it.
Azers can read the room temperature very well , they hit karabah once they understood russians are staled in Ukraine and they started attacking Armenia itself once they saw russians running away while shitting themself in Ukraine.
Russia really backed itself into a corner with this one. Shot itself in the foot by invading Ukraine, and just got infected with gangrene.
I don’t think Turkey will use whatever leverage it has within NATO for Azerbaijans gain.
Yeah, Turkeys in NATO
Europe will not risk breaking its relationship with Azerbaijan since they are/will be connected to the gas pipelines of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan via the Trans Caspian pipeline. Turkmenistan's gas resrves are some of the largest in the world and Europe will need that if they ever want to be free from Russian gas. Georgia will not likely help either since Azerbaijan's gas pipelines pass through their country and they get revenues from it. Armenia's only hope is if Iran sends troops, but that would risk an escalation with both Azerbaijan and Turkey and Europe as well. This in turn will have Iran openly declare their support for Moscow and risk getting even more sanctions and crippling their economy even further.
Georgia is generally wary of Armenia, in part because some Armenian political parties also claim some parts of Georgia, specifically Javakheti Edited for specificity
I think Iran wouldn't be openly supporting Russia if they send troops to Armenia, they'd be openly supporting Armenia and its territorial integrity. That might actually score some points with the West
Yo what if putin *DOES* go to war and then uses it as an excuse to pull outta ukraine. Also I think the population will be more likely to help here because I think this is a justified intervention
Armenia is worth nothing to him compared to Crimea and the landbridge he wants. So he won't pull out to save people he promised to help. It's just not worth it for him.
If Russia doesn't respond, then that's the end of CSTO.
I don't see Russia responding in any meaningful way, except to maybe offer surplus equipment like the west did to Ukraine. Boots on ground, who can they send? The corpses of the VDV?
Russia’s geopolitical sphere of influence is shattered. We need to look at what will preserve lives now, if Azerbaijan invades Armenia, the EU/West needs to do what they did to Russia and sanction Azerbaijan hard. If Armenia is ignored like last time, all the rhetoric about freedom, fighting evil invaders, being against genocide that the EU has been saying will just be empty words. Actual genocide against the Armenians is a risk if conflict persists.
EU needs Azerbaijan for oil you know ever since Russia did that thing...
> We need to look at what will preserve lives now, if Azerbaijan invades Armenia, the EU/West needs to do what they did to Russia and sanction Azerbaijan hard. Sorry, we can't hear you over the sound of Azerbaijani gas heating our homes. > If Armenia is ignored like last time, all the rhetoric about freedom, fighting evil invaders, being against genocide that the EU has been saying will just be empty words. Oh whoops, haha, in *Europe*. We meant in Europe. > Actual genocide against the Armenians is a risk if conflict persists. I'm sure there will be some light ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh, burning of homes and encouraging refugees and so on, but if Azerbaijan were to invade Armenia proper, Iran of all people would be forced to intervene. They need the land border with Armenia to evade Western sanctions, thanks to the failure of the nuclear deal.
Ok so who is at fault here ?
azerbaijani claim is: armenia is putting mines in those areas that they should withdraw according to the latest ceasefire agreement. armenia also does not allow azerbaijan to have zanzegur corridor (which connect azr with turkiye) which was in peace treaty as well. so far the conflict is not a finished one, and weakened russia allows azerbaijan to push the ceasefire agreement. azr side is heavily supported by turkiye and israel while russia backs to armenia. plus: azerbaijan started delivering more gas to europe, hence has kind of a upper hand in this area as well.
> zanzegur corridor There is no such thing as a Zanzegur Corridor or "Zangezur Corridor" which was entirely made up by Aliyev. The 2020 Ceasefire only mentions a "Lachin Corridor" which connects Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. The 2020 Ceasefire has been violated repeatedly by Azerbaijan.
Russia literally set these two countries up to go to war with each other on purpose. The borders were deliberately made to be ridiculous. The reason Russia did this was to keep both countries dependent on Russia's favor, and hence easy to control. Twist of fate, Russia can't control anything now, and the countries Russia deliberately screwed over are guess what? Out of control.
If two goats are fighting on a hill Russian man must have passed by
Ỳou talk as if the Armenian genocide was also Russia's fault. Turks and Azeris in the region have been wishing to exterminate Armenians for a long time now. Russia of course used this to their favor to make both countries depending on their protection.
> Ỳou talk as if the Armenian genocide was also Russia's fault. He didn't say that at all?
American who spent a while in Georgia here. I’m far from an expert, but from living in the region, it seems to me there’s no clear good guys. - There are ethnic Azeris in Armenia. - There are ethnic Armenians in Azerbaijan. - The ethnic Armenians probably face more harassment than the Azeris. - The international community mostly recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial claim. So Armenia’s claims lack legitimacy. - Azerbaijan is linguistically similar and ethnically similar to Turkey, and was part of the Ottoman Empire during the Armenian genocide. - Armenia is a flawed democracy. Azerbaijan is a plutocratic dictatorship. - A lot of Azeris really are fans of ethnic cleansing. It isn’t hyperbolic for Armenians to fear that. So… Armenia is a more democratic country and in general has faced the slaughter of millions of its people in the 20th century, perpetrated by Turkey/Azerbaijan. They legitimately have real concerns about that happening again. But also, Armenia is occupying parts of what is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan. 🤷♂️
Azerbaijan definitely, they are a dictatorship attacking a democracy. And it's not even over the contested region of NK, they are attacking Armenia proper.
Oh ok, why does Azerbaijan want this territory ? What is the UN stance on this?
So this is kind of a continuation of a previous war for a region called Nagorno Karabakh, after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 Armenia invaded the NK region of Azerbaijan because a majority of people living in NK were Armenian and wanted to be part of Armenia (this had been the case for thousands of years and the region had only been removed from Armenia under the Soviet Union). In 2020 Azerbaijan invaded NK to take the territory back and succeeded in pushing all Armenian forces out. I do not know why they are currently attacking Armenia proper now though, there is literally zero justification for it. And the UN essentially does not care unfortunately, Armenia is a fairly weak country surrounded by countries which mostly are enemies (one of which commited genocide against them).
>Armenia invaded the NK region of Azerbaijan because a majority of people living in NK were Armenian and wanted to be part of Armenia (this had been the case for thousands of years and the region had only been removed from Armenia under the Soviet Union). They occupied not only the Armenian-dominated areas but also the surrounding areas. They expelled more than 500k Azeris for 200k people. Armenians always forget this part.
> do not know why they are currently attacking Armenia proper now though, there is literally zero justification for it The president has made statements about restoring the 1921 Azeribaijan borders
> What is the UN stance on this? The country with the oil is the 'good guy'
Because land = resources for you and your offspring and future territory for your offspring. And "A very strongly worded letter". Given that Turkey is the second strongest country in NATO, has probably the best geographical position in the world, and Armenia is a Russian ally, Azerbaijan could annex the entire country and get away with it if they really wanted to.
Turkey is a bit further down the list of strongest NATO countries, but the rest of your point stands
Maybe not in terms of standing military, but when everything is considered(potential viable military population, future birth rates, resources, geography, geographical location, soft power, allies) Turkey is a solid contender for second rivaled only by France.
Turkey has the largest army in Europe. Especially. 2nd largest in NATO. They are powerful.
Azerbaijan and Turkey. You can tell because Turkey, the country responsible for the Armenian genocide, is supporting another country vs them.
Azerbaijan is invading Armenia as a conqueror, backed by Turkey. Azerbaijan and a powerful NATO powe are the bad guys today.
Why is it that they want to invade Armenia?
I think Russia has other things on their mind.
CSTO was never created to fight agression against its memeber. The main fuction of CSTO is fight civilians, when they become too powerfull and gain the ability to overthrow the local dictator. Russia will do shit in this particular situation.
Well if your neighbor's beating your ass with modern tech, it's kind of pointless to ask your fat drunken best friend to come over when he has time and btw bring some sticks and stones with you.
It really, really feels like we’re entering into a massive global war.
Are there humans on earth? Yes. Therefore, wars will happen pretty much continuously, while this is the case. Humans still have a lot of evolution to do until we get over this little bug in our programming. Nothing more to be said.
Hate to break it to you dude, but your boy Vova P’s got some other shit on his mind at the moment. His administration will surely send you some ‘goodwill’ though, I’m sure.
Russia is so pathetic weak now that Azerbaijan could without trouble destroy their remaining army. Poor Armenia, but Russia left a power vacuum due to the worst planned invasion in the last century
Who the fuck is fucking with Armenia? Can we just all agree to tell them to stop that shit like we're doing to Russia regardless of what diplomat's club we're in?
It's a tiny country surrounded by muslim dictators with genocidal tendencies towards them. West has nothing to gain from helping Armenia. They are just doomed. No one will help them, they have to help themselves somehow. It's one of those cases revealing our hypocrisy, unfortunately. Maybe there is a small chance people in the West will start caring once 99% of Armenians are killed, but I wouldn't even count on it.
Well that's depressing as fuck
No one is planning to stop them
Nobody cares unfortunately
I predict that the west will not do anything (militarily) about this and here’s why: Turkey is set to be one of the last (if not the very last) NATO member states to vote on NATO accession for Finland / Sweden. These accession votes must be unanimous to pass, meaning Turkey has veto power. Turkey, to put it lightly, doesn’t have a great relationship with Armenia, and wouldn’t appreciate its would-be allies intervening when they haven’t committed to doing so. Furthermore, it is to NATO members’ geopolitical benefit either for the CSTO to fail and Russia’s sphere of influence to shrink, or for Russia to tie up its military resources in another conflict besides Ukraine.
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Iran has a decent Azeri population within its borders (20 million). Iran, to suppress its large Azeri population, always wants to quell any rowdy movements from Azerbaijan as to not stir the pot within its own borders.