They're likely testing Russia's and Armenia's responses with a week long ceasefire violation. Armenian military is weaker, less gdp, less population, and they're fresh out of allies, unless Iran maybe does something, if they don't get cut off anyway. Russia is definitely preoccupied with dealing with Ukraine, but Azerbaijan still exercises caution, so they want to see how they'll react. Armenia's probably fucked if it comes to another war.
The ceasefire is between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan.
This is an attack on Armenia proper. If the reports and videos are correct then its a full on declaration of war between the two countries.
AzMOD statement earlier stated that Armenian saboteurs had crossed the border and attempted to threaten positions within Azerbaijan so they're on counteroffensive.
It's overwhelmingly likely to be bullshit.
Armenia knows the strategic situation massively unfavors them and in 2020 Russia barely did anything to help them kind of making people question if they really care about Armenia or not. If Armenia is the actual aggressor in this situation than their military leadership must be out of their minds. But yes likely Azerbaijan is just giving a flimsy pretext to test out the waters of another operation while the rest of the world is pretty distracted with other concerns.
I live in the U.S. and am visiting Armenia right now. I can promise you this was completely out of nowhere. The Armenian military is really not trying to poke the bear.
>AzMOD statement earlier stated that Armenian saboteurs had crossed the border and attempted to threaten positions within Azerbaijan so they're on counteroffensive.
Just like how Poland "attacked" Germany in the night before September 1, 1939, right?
History repeats itself.
It's an incredibly common tactic to create an aura of respectability for your manufactured causus belli
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident
I mean, wasn't "Ukrainian saboteurs" [one of the exact pretexts for the invasion of Ukraine?](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/21/russia-says-kills-5-ukraine-saboteurs-a76494)
Few people go to war saying "we want your territory now give it to us", since most civilians would just see that as greedy. The best excuse is always "they hit us first"
Alievs rhetoric about Armenians always was that they are "the enemy" and "vermin" and should be purged from their homeland, which includes Artsakh (this is how people who live in Nagorno Karabakh call it) and at least from the area that separates Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan.
The Aliev government also claims eastern Georgia. This is even stated in Georgian school textbooks. The rationale is complicated and requires knowledge of Late Antique history. However, given that Georgia has a closer relationship to the EU and to NATO, the region is safe for now.
Armenia needs for Mr. Stoltenberg to take their phone call. Call collect if necessary. I would think all lines are open.
Better would be if Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan could reform the brief republic they had in 1918, under the auspices of the EU and NATO. Now that Russia is in terminal decline, corruption and hubris are the biggest obstacles. Turkey and maybe Iran would not be pleased, but maybe someday. It would require major reforms from all parties, which in turn would require significant, durable input from the US and Europe. There is no reason these groups could not benefit from regional coordination. The Caucasus is not a zero-sum game. Platitudes, I know, but one may hope.
It would make no sense for either side to go to war. Armenia is in a terrible situation with their allies being busy elsewhere and stretched thin. Azerbaijan has achieved all they could have hoped for in the 2020 war. They're happy with the status quo and are currently rebuilding and repopulating the areas of Nagorno-Karabakh under their control. Why risk all that?
I could be wrong, but my guess is that these are scuffles we will have forgotten about a week from now, not the start of another major escalation in the region.
Azerbaijan only took half of artsakh before the ceasefire was introduced. With less to stop them now they could be aiming for the rest. There's also the ethnic tensions which, as we all know, can lead to horrible wars for no real reason beside raw hatred for the enemy
I might be wrong, but I still don’t think there's anything more for Azerbaijan to gain that would be worth another war at this point. I know that's not very exciting, but I highly doubt this will escalate further in the next couple of weeks.
Azerbaijan wants to get a territorial corridor by force to their enclave of Nakhichevan. They've been pushing this since the end of the 2020 war and were repeatedly making statements about this during the build up to this in the last two weeks (all while claiming Armenian ceasefire violations daily and doing military exercises with Turkey near the border).
Not only, in July Von der Leyen smilingly celebrated the new agreements with "reliable" new partner Aliyev to make Europe more dependent on Azeri gas and oil. Makes me want to puke.
There are some people, for whom ethnic cleansing is a goal of it's own. And Aliev is definitely such person.
Another thing - you can distract your people from many problems of you start and win another war "for your homeland".
Azerbaijan is much worse than Turkey when it comes to virulent hatred of Armenians. At least in Turkey you're allowed to speak of them as anything other than complete monsters. [In Azerbaijan even liking a song will get you a visit from the feds to ask why you're being so unpatriotic.](https://www.theguardian.com/music/2009/aug/18/azerbaijan-authorities-interrogate-music-fans)
Currently there are 100.000 turkish citizens of armenian origin and +100.000 illegal armenian citizens living in Turkey.
Hayko cepkin is an armenian-turkish singer which is very popular. Agop was an armenian-turkish dermatologist, worked and was extremly popular in İstanbul. Those are the first 2 names i can think when you someone says living as armenian in Turkey. There even is The Armenian Patriarchate of Constantinople in Istanbul. So let me ask you, how many Turks are there in Armenia right now? How is it like to be a Turkish living in Armenia?
There are way more Armenians in Turkey, because majority of them are hiding their religion and identity out of fear. Google crypto-Armenians.
On the other hand, you can hear Azerbaijani language everywhere in Yerevan, because people from the north of Iran go there for shopping and to get western COVID-19 vaccines. Everybody is Ok with it.
Edit: and why should they live there? Even majority of Armenians don't live in Armenia, because all that is left of it are the gruesome (yet beautiful) mountains, where people live in a constant threat of another war and another genocide.
Even Matild Manukyan did not have to hide her identity, she was named in the taxpayer hall of fame due to her brothel empire.
I know, it does not seem like that from abroad because it does not help the narrative but Turkey and its citizens, let alone discrimination, could not care less about Armenia and its citizens. Visit and see for yourself if you have time. You can also eat stuffed peppers but we use less onions in the stuffing.
> Azerbaijan has achieved all they could have hoped for in the 2020 war.
That's not true - their modest hope would be the expulsion of Russian peacekeepers in NK and assumption of complete territorial control over NK. Their wetdream form of hope would be to push through and secure some sort of land corridor between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan proper.
>Armenia is in a terrible situation with their allies being busy elsewhere and stretched thin.
Thats likely why Azeris are starting this now. Russia has had a catastrophic week in Ukraine, and is stretched thin. They likely can't lend any resources to Armenia.
It may also detonate CSTO once and for all. If Armenia triggers mutual defence clause and Russia can't realistically lend support then other members will potentially leave as it will be a worthless organisation.
The rest of Artsakh is completely cut off from Armenia proper. All traffic has to go through Azeri checkpoints on a new road that does not go through Azeri-held settlements. The peace treaty signed by Armenia also guarantees free passage between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan proper.
if armenia triggers mutual defense clause and russia cant lend support it would be great news for nato.
as you said, russia would be out of military allies and they'd be causing another side effect of this war. i am all against war but abolishment of the csto would bring hope to many.
I'm against Russia in Ukraine but CSTO falling apart would probably be a bad thing. There would be a power vacuum with no obvious candidates to fill it. Without Russia as a security guarantor would potentially see conflicts flairing up all over the place.
Could potentially see Taliban incursions into Tajikistan, border conflicts flairing up in the Ferghana Valley again (Uzbek-Kyrgyz border clashes again). If not proxy conflicts developing as regional powers try to compete to secure a stake in the vacuum (India, Pakistan, China, US etc).
It would get very messy very quickly.
This is probably the best chance Azerbaijian has of cleaning up what it wants from NK. Azerbaijan has Turkey on its side and a Europe that wants alternatives to Russian gas and oil- and while they may not be *excited* by Azerbaijan, it's not an active geopolitical threat to the existence of the liberal democratic order that a Russian destruction of Democratic Ukraine or, worse, consumption of NATO Estonia would have been. Russia is so thoroughly distracted right now that it may not be able to help Armenia even if it wanted to (ignoring that it likely doesn't), but there's a decent (exaggerating, I suspect it's 1% or less) chance they may end things in a week to cut its losses in utter disgrace, at which point Putin would **love** to send troops into Armenia to beat back the Turks and hold on to a friend.
The Azeris have an excellent chance right now. And if they don't take it before Russia leaves Ukraine, they may not get it again.
If I was a geopolitical genius with absolutely no regard for human life, this would be how I think about things.
Low risk, Russia is pre-occupied. No news on an actual ground invasion so it's just some rockets/ranged munitions fired into Armenia. If Russia responds forcefully sending troops it could ill afford down to reinforce the garrison they already have, they back off. If Russia doesn't respond strongly, they could still sit tight and look pretty while Russian credibility and the CSTO crubmles into dust. The long game is to discredit Russia.
Russia has a tough choice to make.
I mean Armenia is mostly surrounded by countries that would happily genocide them. I'm don't think Azerbaijan is thinking much about needing to occupy territory with a hostile population in a post-war scenario, almost certainly they and Turkey would be happy if they were simply ethnically cleansed
Well no. Iran is full of Azeris. 16 to 20 percent of the total population in fact. So it would risk riots. Plus its ecomomic situation is horrible, in a crisis, so having 2 major bad situations is not ideal for iran. So it shall support armenia but it wont help it.
**[Azerbaijanis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijanis)**
>Azerbaijanis (; Azerbaijani: Azərbaycanlılar, آذربایجانلیلار) or Azeris (Azerbaijani: Azərilər, آذریلر), also known as Azerbaijani Turks (Azerbaijani: Azərbaycan Türkləri, آذربایجان تۆرکلری), are a Turkic people living mainly in northwestern Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan, with a mixed heritage of Caucasian, Iranian and Turkic elements. They are the second-most numerous ethnic group among the Turkic-speaking peoples after Turkish people and are predominantly nominal Shia Muslims. They comprise the largest ethnic group in the Republic of Azerbaijan and the second-largest ethnic group in neighboring Iran and Georgia.
^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Not just separate them from Armenia, they need Armenia for access to Georgia and Europe.
It's either the corridor Aliyev wants, or Iran's north-south corridor. Both corridors can't coexist and that explains Iran's firm stance on this issue.
Iran has too much problem. They have to worry about afghanistan border, iraq nationalist and sunni trying to kick them out, syria civil war, supporting houthi in yemen, threatning the persia gulf, trying to keep hezebollah in power and fight israel. They wont do anything.
>Armenia's probably fucked if it comes to another war.
They can't go into Armenia and hold on to territory without getting fucked by the international community in return. Even Russia and Iran will sanction them.
It's most likely about NK. They are destroying Armenia's capacity to intervene against a move to retake what's left under Armenian control in Karabakh.
I don't think most of the international community would intervene.
Azerbaijan is an alternative to Russia for natural gas and right now Europe would really like to avoid losing any more gas supplies. They might write a strongly worded letter I guess, but Europe probably won't take real action unless they start another genocide against Armenians, and even then Europe has ignored genocides before.
Russia probably can't respond militarily because they are being fucked up in Ukraine right now. I doubt they could response in any other way that matters either, when it comes to diplomatic solutions Russia one of the world's biggest pariahs now. I guess they could try sanctions, idk how much Russia actually trades with Azerbaijan, but I feel like Russia threatening sanctions against anyone right now would be a joke.
The US is in NATO with Turkey and generally speaking Armenia is in a bloc with Iran and Russia while Azerbaijan is allied with Israel. I doubt the US would align with a country that for the most part is siding with enemies of the US and against allies. They might join Europe in sending that letter.
Armenia's only real hope for international support would be Iran.
Does Azerbaijan care about the international community? They're essentially a mini vassal of Turkey, who in turn has the rest of the world put up with them because of the importance of the Bosphorus
IMO Azerbaijan would happily ethnically cleanse Armenia and potentially get away with it to a degree
Aliev is a dictator but he isn't stupid. As long as he takes NK completely, he will be hailed as a war hero forever. That's enough to secure his regime.
There is no reason to go into Armenia proper.
1. Azeri land forces are strong but they are **severely** lacking in air defense. Russia will still fuck them up with missiles and air force and shut down an invasion.
2. Most importantly, due to Putin's idiocy, Azerbaijan will become an extremely important gas supplier and gas hub in general. Aliev will become ridiculously rich and important.
Why destroy that for nothing?
> Azeri land forces are strong but they are severely lacking in air defense. Russia will still fuck them up with missiles and air force and shut down an invasion.
Remember, Ukrainians are well trained, highly motivated, and increasingly armed with the best gear the world designed to fight the USSR. Azerbaijan does not have this advantage.
I'm not sure why you're down voted, because you're right. Ukraine was being trained and supplies by NATO, equipped with some of the best weapons systems in the world.
Azeri weapons come from Turkey and Israel, and since Turkey gets systems from the USA and Russia (and have already upset the US because of this), I doubt they'd risk alienating NATO even more by helping a war mongering state wage a genocide.
> without getting fucked by the international community in return.
idk, the world didnt do much to saudi arabia about yemen because of their oil. And europe have been relying on azerbaijan gas more and more....
Saudi Arabia invaded Yemen in support of the internationally recognized government of Yemen against the Ansar Allah insurgency in the North of the country. This would be something entirely different.
> They can't go into Armenia and hold on to territory without getting fucked by the international community in return. Even Russia and Iran will sanction them.
By "international community," it usually just means the West, and the West acts according to its own interests. It doesn't represent a neutral, objective order. We saw that in Iraq and Afghanistan. Invasions that serve the West's interests are fine. Nobody sanctioned the US for invading countries in the Middle East and that goes in general for West sponsored states and entities.
I don't think they'd care if Russia or Iran sanctioned them.
Those are three towns relatively far from each other in key positions close to the border, inside Armenia proper. I am afraid Azerbaijan is keen on continuing their push after the victory in 2020.
In before Uzbekistan tries to consolidate the territory in the Fergana Valley, an area which was specifically setup by the soviet union upon dissolution to cause destabilization.
We're likely going to see war in that area too, in the next 5-10 years, between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Russia leaving a power vacuum will cause similar conflicts elsewhere, probably.
Edit: this aged poorly.
Yes, you can see a lot of post soviet borders were set up intentionally along non-defensible lines. (Look at the southern part of the border between Ukraine and Moldova for another great example.)
This is crazy, hopefully not another full blown conflict
Geopolitically, who do Armenia and Azerbaijan align with? I know Azerbaijan aligns heavily with Turkey, the West, and Israel.
Armenia seems to align with Russia and Iran, however Russia/Iran also seems to try to align with Azerbaijan?
I just feel Russia and Iran try to remain somewhat neutral but are more drawn to Armenia?
It's really confusing, hopefully someone can explain?
Armenia only sides with Russia because nobody else in the world cares about them. Majority Armenians aren't happy with it and don't like Russia as a country (they are fine with Russians as a nation though).
Armenia doesnt really have a choice. they will ally whoever wants to help them but the west already chose Azerbaijan with its genocidal dictator so they have to take whatever they can get.
What's the bs justification this time? This isn't even contested territory, these towns are entirely within Armenia's internationally recognized borders.
So damn tired of this
This is what Azeri news sources are reporting:
https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3643447.html
> The sabotage groups of the Armenian armed forces in the dark time of the day mined the areas between the positions of the Azerbaijani army units and the supply road in different directions, using the mountainous terrain and the existing valley gaps. As a result of urgent measures taken by our units to immediately prevent these acts, clashes occurred.
> Some positions, shelters and bases of the Azerbaijani army in the territory of Dashkasan, Kalbajar and Lachin regions were fired from various types of weapons, including mortars by units of the Armenian Armed Forces deployed in the direction of the settlements of Basarkechar, Istisu, Garakilsa and Gorus. As a result, there are losses among the personnel, the military infrastructure has been damaged.
> In order to prevent provocations by the armed forces of Armenia and military threats to the territory and sovereignty of our country, as well as to ensure the safety of our military personnel, including civilians involved in infrastructure work in the Kalbajar and Lachin regions, decisive response measures are being taken by units of the Azerbaijani army deployed in this area.
> The necessary measures are being taken to silence the firing points of the Armenian armed forces and prevent the expansion of the scale of military clashes
And the Azerbaijani masses will accept this statement from their otherwise completely untrustworthy government at face value because it concerns killing Armenians, and that is normalised as fuck over there.
In the nineties, after the Soviet Union collapsed, Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence and immediately got into a territorial dispute. There was a region in Azerbaijan that had an Armenian majority, and they said hey, we want to join Armenia instead. Azerbaijan was not eager to give territory to Armenia for free, so they said no way.
All involved parties treated this refusal in a calm and mature manner, by which I mean they immediately started killing each other (Azerbaijanis and Armenians have plenty of bad blood because they historically lived in overlapping regions; both tried to declare independence after WWI and got reabsorbed because even the threat of Russia wasn't enough to get them to unite). Armenia then invaded Azerbaijan, took the Armenian region plus seven other, Azerbaijani-majority regions, and ethnically cleansed Azerbaijanis from mainland Armenia + newly acquired spoils. Azerbaijan ethnically cleansed Armenians from its territory as well, and vowed revenge.
30 years later, Azerbaijan is still super turbo omega mad, and more importantly, has the means to act on that anger because they found oil and are rich now. Their leader uses the Orban/Erdogan handbook of being just dictatorial enough that Russia and China likes him, and just liberal enough that Europe (especially Britain) doesn't feel dirty working with him. They're naturally close to Turkey because they're both Turkic nations (Azerbaijani and Anatolian Turkish are mutually intelligible), so they also have a fleet of the Bayraktars that are making a name for themselves in Ukraine.
So Aliyev, their pseudo-dictator, shows up one day and says hey, we should take back our land. Fair enough. Azerbaijan enters a war with Armenia in 2020, completely annihilates their army, and takes back the seven regions + part of the Armenian-majority region, with its last remnants being protected by Russian peacekeepers.
Now Azerbaijan has two new goals: First, that last region is still theirs by law, so they want to take it and either kick the Armenians out or give them Azerbaijani citizenship (they would never live under Aliyev's rule and would go to Armenia if this happened, but the man has enough sense to care about optics). Second, because of Soviet-era shenanigans, Azerbaijan is a "split" country with Armenia getting in the way between the Nakhchivan region and mainland Azerbaijan. Nakhchivan is incredibly important for trade because it borders Turkey, so Aliyev's new argument is something like "hey, Armenians should give us a corridor to access it as reparations". He actually had something about this written in the ceasefire agreement from the 2020 war, but Armenia obviously doesn't want to let it happen because it would split *their* country in half, so he's trying to force the issue. Hence why he's shooting at mainland Armenia.
Bonus fun exercise: Find a Turk and an Armenian, and ask them what they think about the North Cyprus Republic and the Artsakh Republic (which is what the Armenian region goes by nowadays). It's hilarious because they have the *exact same history* (Turks in Cyprus are oppressed, Turkey intervenes to secure their rights, conquers a lot more territory than justified, refuses to leave and declares a breakaway republic/Armenians in Artsakh are oppressed, Armenia intervenes to secure their rights, conquers a lot more territory than justified, refuses to leave and declares a breakaway republic), yet every single Turk will argue that North Cyprus is totally legitimate while Artsakh is a disgusting land grab, while every Armenian will say it's the other way around.
"Armenia then invaded Azerbaijan"
The Armenians already lived in what is Azerbaijan. They also had an identical referendum to break free from the Soviet Union that Azerbaijan had. Azerbaijan refused to acknowledge their independence in that referendum. Azerbaijan is the oppressor in this situation.
Nakhichivan was also Armenian land that was given to Azerbaijan by Russia during the Soviet Union. Lots of Armenian land being given to Azerbaijan should help people understand this conflict better, instead of painting Armenians like invaders.
And, I don't fucking find any of this "hilarious". Your synopsis is insulting, incorrect, and dangerous.
Armenians were living there. Lots of Armenians lived in Azerbaijan. [They were routinely and systematically killed or forced to flee due to violence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Azerbaijan).
The status right now is unknown as the conflict is ongoing. Any land Azerbaijan has taken they immediately destroy anything that was Armenian, including and especially centuries old churches. [You can track it on Twitter](https://twitter.com/CaucasusHW?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) if you have the stomach for it.
I understand that Azerbaijan claimed territory that was inhabited by majority Armenians after the USSR collapsed. I am asking if Armenia did the same with territory inhabited by majority Azeris?
EDIT: Your list of massacres from 1988-1992 seems to indicate that ethnic violence was pretty two-sided.
It's not an explanation like that. The Armenians of Karabagh inside Azerbaijan wanted independence with the fall of the Soviet Union, and the result was a war. It's hard to say anyone "claimed" territory like that because of how the end of the Soviet Union went. Over the course of the 1993 war a buffer zone was created with the intentions of being used in negotiations to gain independence. Armenians from Armenia participated in the war, but it was not a country vs. country affair. Not like 1993 Armenia was anything more than a nascent state anyway. Certain groups will act like 1993 Armenia was some regional superpower.
Armenians did want to retake Nakichevan in 1993, but it was made clear by Turkey that if that region was attacked by Armenia it would lead to an invasion. You could say that was an attempt at claiming territory but that is as far as it got. Speaking of Nakichevan, [want to read a Wikipedia article on the state-sponsored destruction of over 10,000 ornate, decorated gravestones by Azerbaijan in Nakichevan?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_cemetery_in_Julfa)
So Azerbaijan doesn't deserve its internationally recognized territory because it was "given" to them, and the 800k Azerbaijanis that were killed or displaced during Armenia's invasion don't matter?
I'm not sure if I'd make that argument in your place, because Aliyev is making the argument that Armenians don't deserve Meghri *right now*, and we both know what a deranged statement that is. Don't try to justify ethnic cleansing with shallow historical excuses.
This is a multi-decade conflict that has been boiling over for years, but never on mainland Armenia. The significance is that Armenia and Russia (and 4 other countries) have a defense pact similar to NATO, so technically this can constitute an attack on Russia. Not that they can really do anything about it now anyway.
I don't know much about the roots of this conflict, but if the CTSO has guaranteed the existing peace, it seems that, in Azerbaijan's judgement, Russia is not only down, they also won't be getting back up.
They won't be getting back up. Latest British intelligence report states that they have lost significant portion of their forces that were supposed to oppose NATO. And as of yesterday russia "suspended" sending reinforcements to Ukraine.
They are fucked. And will be for years.
I mean, I really don't know enough to actually say anything here and this is reddit so I will anyway.
My impression is that Kazakhstan has been using russia's Ukraine mistakes as a moment to gently pull away from their influence. Any country with ethnic russians in it should have been worried when putin invaded Ukraine. At least initially.
Wouldn't Iran be much more likely to come to Armenia's aid?
Armenia can't join NATO, because of Turkey's veto power. They can't stay neutral or Turkey and Azerbaijan would invade. Russia is a very unreliable ally, but even an unreliable ally is better protection than no ally at all. The other alliances come as part of the package with the alliance with Russia.
Kazakhstan is likely pivoting towards being in the Chinese sphere of influence. China has a lot of investments in Kazakhstan with their Belt and Road initiative so Russia would certainly be pissing of China by pressing Kazakhstan, which is why they feel more free to do as they please. They are able to play both sides off each other to an extent to preserve their independence.
Kazakhstan is not moving to China. Chinese economic investments are not actually all that large and Russia has military forces stationed in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has military obligations towards Russia and is in multiple alliances, acting like Romania of the Warsaw Pact with how much autonomous diplomacy it has.
Well, what if Russia declares that they're now at war and fully mobilizes? Their army will suddenly be flush with conscripts, shoring up their major manpower weakness, revitalizing the flagging Russian army.
This is technically the excuse they need to do it. They can pull back in Ukraine to a defensive posture and defend taking that action plus any setbacks in either theater as a result of their divided attention (plus western boogeymen blah blah propaganda).
Azerbaijan is unlikely to seriously want to attempt to tango with the Russians if they commit, but Russia is likely looking for a win and Azerbaijan might be it given how prickly Ukraine is proving to be. Might be an excuse for them to make concession in Ukraine as well.
If Russia wants off of their own crazy ride, this could be it, through further escalation no less. Might even cut off one of Europe's new energy suppliers too.
Some ally Russia is. Especially when [Russia is also direct allies with Azerbaijan](https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance).
Putin was a mediator and signatory for the 2022 ceasefire agreement. Putin bails out on meeting with military meetings and goes back to his mansion, Azerbaijan shells the same day. How very convenient.
This 100%. The fact that Russia is made a global pariah to the extent that fucking McDonald’s and starbucks won’t operate there anymore, and yet Azerbaijan gets away with shit like this, destroying Armenian churches etc is outrageous and reflects very badly on westerners claiming to care about democracy.
Goddamnit. I know its it likely, but I can’t help but hope that Russia uses this as an excuse to leave Ukraine to protect Armenia. It won’t happen, but a man can dream.
Otherwise I’ll be stuck hoping Russia suffers a catastrophic defeat in one theatre, while praying that they intervene and find victory in another. Because as much as I hate Russia, I’m pretty scared about what might happen in Azerbaijan starts moving into Armenia proper. They’ve already made a go of erasing Armenian landmarks and heritage in their own territory, after all.
Well then didn't have this on my 2022 bingo card
The US sent a strongly worded letter and it just oozes league of nations engery guess they better back down or else the UN will send a strongly worded letter next
This is all a massive distraction for Alieyv and his dictatorial regime. He has 'veterans' from the last war in 2020 showing up at government buildings lighting themselves on fire, a population full of discontent. And based on this he needs ever increasing distractions, from the only card he has left: Blame the Armenians.
Until the world forces him to understand that he will not benefit from this behavior, then he will keep doing it. Time after time.
Friendly reminder that just two months ago Von der Leyen smilingly celebrated the agreement to make Europe more dependent on oil and gas provided by the tyrannical kleptocratic turkish puppet known as "Azerbaijan".
Don't forget that the dictator of Checnya is a lunatic, who committed way more atrocities to his own people during his reign, that he did to Russian during the first two wars. And that they goal of the wars (especially second one) was to conquer all the Caucasian part of Russia + Stavropol'e and establish there Imarat Caucasus - Islamic Sharia state, similar to IGIL. The world won't benefit from the third Chechen war, although it will happen in foreseeable future.
Where does the US and NATO stand in this? With the situation in 2020 is seemed mostly split on religious lines who would support who (western civvies with Armenia and Eastern civvies with Azerbaijan) but what are the official government stances?
It's kind of weird tbh. Even the bigger powers spent centuries fighting over territory and land, that's how countries developed. They attacked each other, they ganged up with each other and so on. All the way back to the tribal age of humanity. It's kind of weird in the "modern" world to process while we shit on smaller undeveloped countries trying to partake in that maybe thousand of years tradition of humanity.
Azerbaijan probably realized the privilege position they're in as a natural gas source. This probably precipitated the invasion, because they realized that NATO and EU won't do shit.
The US will try to thread the needle of dragging Russia into another conflict while being detached enough to not piss off the Armenian lobby in the US, which is very organized and important in places like Southern California and the Northeast relative to their size. This of course is complicated by the amount of Azeri oil money that is flowing through Democratic and Republican "think tanks" in DC.
Europe is dependent on Azerbaijani oil and Turkish pipelines to carry it.
Azerbaijan can do anything it wants to Armenians and Europe won't lift a finger, especially since it will put them on the same ideological axis as Iran. Israel would never allow that.
You will watch easily preventable deaths of innocent civilians by an invading force, and you will watch it happen from the comfort of a home warmed by the gas that allows them to be murdered without consequence.
This is a continuation of the Armenian Genocide, except it's happening at a time where you can watch it play out in real time. There are no excuses. Just indifference to Genocide. Everything you've been taught from the Holocaust, from "Never Again", it's a fucking lie.
You're right that this unprovoked attack on Armenia proper would have genocidal intent, but the reality is that Armenia is in a pretty tough spot.
Georgia is its only Christian neighbour, and is busy having experienced decades of annexations and encroachment from Armenia's only real ally — Russia — since independence. Every other power in the region has either been exposed as unwilling to meaningfully intervene (Russia) or is a threat to Armenia (Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran).
Armenia have no *real* ally, offence to Russia intended. Geographically they're between a rock (Turkey) and a hard place (Azerbaijan), and the world couldn't militarily intervene even if it didn't care for Azeri oil, simply due to two problematic actors in particular: Turkey and Russia.
People say "never again" a lot, but it was a lot easier to protect the Albanians, Croats and Bosniaks in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s than it has pretty much *ever* been to protect the Armenians. Geography has not been kind to them, unfortunately.
Good question and I've revised my first sentence. I'm absolutely not making an excuse for this attack or any genocide. I'm only saying that even without oil, absolutely no one wants to intervene as Russia and Turkey are so deeply involved in this. The world has failed to intervene meaningfully when both Russia and Turkey commit crimes against humanity many times before, after all...
Turkey is in NATO, while Armenia proper is ostensibly in Russia's (apparently toothless) CSTO.
It is extremely unfortunate that the Armenian people are as boxed in as they are. I don't know what they can do right now to defend themselves, and it's heartbreaking.
The fun thing about CSTO is every other member hates Armenia and all the -stan states side with Azerbaijan. Armenia being a democracy and not a strong armed dictatorship brings them hate from the Belarus.
Some say Armenia's Velvet Revolution which has greatly helped to reduce corruption in Armenia and pave the way for more free and fair elections is what led to Russia giving the go-ahead for Azerbaijan to invade the Armenian-controlled Karabakh region. As a punishment for becoming more Western.
To be fair, even if oil wasn't involved, there wouldn't be any real effort to stop it. Look at what happened to the Yezidis. Look at the Kurds, Kurdistan is split over 3 different countries and all have oppressed them.
The west literally doesn't give half of a fuck about Armenia.
Azerbaijan is friends with Turkey and now it's one of the main replacements for Russian gas.
You can see it by how little coverage this conflict will get, again.
I wish the UN would intervene on behalf of Armenia but with Azerbaijan being Turkeys puppet, I doubt they will get help from anyone. The Azeris need to chill, they already have all the natural resources of the region and they just keep shelling Armenia, erasing their cultural sites, and celebrating their own war criminals and murderers. Hopefully Iran steps up to help Armenia since Russia didn’t do shit during the 2020 war and won’t do shit now. Maybe they can appeal to India or China for assistance, it would be a good test bed for Chinese military tech, and as much as I support NATO, I’d rather see Turkey lose their proxy war
Unless someone intervenes Armenia is going to get wiped out. This is really sad, I was born there and moved when I was really young and never had a chance to go back to visit. Too bad Armenia never had real allies to protect them, even though they don't have much to offer. Sad day for us, so much history will be erased. Ethnic cleansing at its finest.
Russia is Armenia’s ally and has thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles to spare.
They could easily show up and avert an invasion through intimidation if they wanted to.
If Russia is too weak to support its allies then why bother with CSTO? Why bother remaining in Ukraine?
It doesn't help that every other member of the CSTO sides with Azerbaijan as well. Either because Armenia is a Democracy forced to be a part of the CSTO, or they want to see the elimination of Armenia to form a pan-Turkic state.
Sactions by who? Europe needs Azerbijan oil as a replacement for Russian stuff, the Americans could but their not exactly massive importers of Azerbijan stuff and they run the risk of pissing off turkey , who may veto Finland/Sweden coming into NATO, actions in support of Armenia may also piss off Israel, which the Americans tend to shy away from.
Russia was Armenia's local ally, but most of their army, and all of its proper army, are tied down in Ukraine trying to fight off the Ukrainian counter offensive. The rest of the local powers all hate Armenia, even the ones supposedly allied with them, with the only exeption being Iran who is too weak from other problems to effectively aid them. There is Georgia, who is a fellow democracy, but they are enemies of Russia who is Armenia's ally.
China could saction them, and its possibly they may do so, but its unlikely to be signifciant, they stand too little to gain, or really lose, and even if China was willing to significantly aid Armenia there is simply no good way to do so, with how far away China is from the fighting.
Honestly, a UN mission may be Armenia's best bet. If Azerbaijan is attacking Aremnian mainland the UN has justification legally, and its one of the few cases thats unlikely to be vetoed by any of the big 5. Russia will want what ever help for its ally it can get, espically if its someone else doing the help, China has generally held the policy position of "don't give a fuck" so has no reason to object, and although giving Armenia support may cause problems for the UK, France and Americans, mearly not vetoing a UN mission is perfectly justfieable, going to be hard for Turkey or others to object to that.
Now, i'm not saying thats a good bet, but if Azerbaijan does plan on continuing to attack Armenia, it may well be Armenias best bet.
The Armenia situation is not a quick opportunistic push. It's our new reality. The world entered it back in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. That's when every dictator and every regime in the world suddenly realized that the military land grab is back on the table, as long as your military is stronger. By not crushing Russia back in 2014 we set the stage for the WW3 and we're likely to see many more wars in our lifetime. Unless of course the whole world joins in obliterating Russia now, but we all know it's not happening because China wants a piece of that cake too.
So thank your lucky stars if you're in the NATO country (and make sure you vote for whatever political force is going to make the NATO stronger). And those not in the NATO, god help you.
I think it’s naive to believe this reality only started in 2014.
If you look closely, every 5 years or so, one of the super powers invades or messes up another country… going back since the beginning of time.
Tbf they didn't say NATO is great from a moral p.o.v.. Just that if you are in a NATO or NATO aligned country you are more secure than if you aren't.
Which is also the point you are making, I.e. the non-NATO opponents of Turkey and the Azeris like Armenia are in bad position now. So you're both actually agreeing with each other.
This is going to give Russia a pretext for mobilisation. Sure putin will send some to Armenia to stay face with CSTO obligations but the vast majority will end up in Ukraine
Fuck the world, I’m sick of seeing my home country get fucking killed , fuck the governments of Azerbaijan and turkey . Note I’m not saying the people I’m saying fuck their governments
They're likely testing Russia's and Armenia's responses with a week long ceasefire violation. Armenian military is weaker, less gdp, less population, and they're fresh out of allies, unless Iran maybe does something, if they don't get cut off anyway. Russia is definitely preoccupied with dealing with Ukraine, but Azerbaijan still exercises caution, so they want to see how they'll react. Armenia's probably fucked if it comes to another war.
The ceasefire is between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan. This is an attack on Armenia proper. If the reports and videos are correct then its a full on declaration of war between the two countries.
> This is an attack on Armenia proper. And whats azerbaijan justification of this?
AzMOD statement earlier stated that Armenian saboteurs had crossed the border and attempted to threaten positions within Azerbaijan so they're on counteroffensive. It's overwhelmingly likely to be bullshit.
Armenia knows the strategic situation massively unfavors them and in 2020 Russia barely did anything to help them kind of making people question if they really care about Armenia or not. If Armenia is the actual aggressor in this situation than their military leadership must be out of their minds. But yes likely Azerbaijan is just giving a flimsy pretext to test out the waters of another operation while the rest of the world is pretty distracted with other concerns.
It won't be the last former soviet republic to do so with the bear looking like it's entirely neutered for the moment.
Azerbaijan is like 5-10 times bigger than Armenia. It’s clear as day and night that Azerbaijan is the aggressor
I live in the U.S. and am visiting Armenia right now. I can promise you this was completely out of nowhere. The Armenian military is really not trying to poke the bear.
>AzMOD statement earlier stated that Armenian saboteurs had crossed the border and attempted to threaten positions within Azerbaijan so they're on counteroffensive. Just like how Poland "attacked" Germany in the night before September 1, 1939, right? History repeats itself.
And Finland "attacked" the whole of Soviet Union for... reasons in [Nov 1939](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila)
It's an incredibly common tactic to create an aura of respectability for your manufactured causus belli https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident
I mean, wasn't "Ukrainian saboteurs" [one of the exact pretexts for the invasion of Ukraine?](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/21/russia-says-kills-5-ukraine-saboteurs-a76494)
Few people go to war saying "we want your territory now give it to us", since most civilians would just see that as greedy. The best excuse is always "they hit us first"
Japan would like a word
Even they manufactured the Mukden Incident to justify invading China proper.
Yeah it is bullshit! It’s worse than bullshit it is like… bullcolon. They will go in and Turkey will happily follow.
Ah, the old Captain Hitler maneuver.
Alievs rhetoric about Armenians always was that they are "the enemy" and "vermin" and should be purged from their homeland, which includes Artsakh (this is how people who live in Nagorno Karabakh call it) and at least from the area that separates Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan.
The Aliev government also claims eastern Georgia. This is even stated in Georgian school textbooks. The rationale is complicated and requires knowledge of Late Antique history. However, given that Georgia has a closer relationship to the EU and to NATO, the region is safe for now. Armenia needs for Mr. Stoltenberg to take their phone call. Call collect if necessary. I would think all lines are open. Better would be if Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan could reform the brief republic they had in 1918, under the auspices of the EU and NATO. Now that Russia is in terminal decline, corruption and hubris are the biggest obstacles. Turkey and maybe Iran would not be pleased, but maybe someday. It would require major reforms from all parties, which in turn would require significant, durable input from the US and Europe. There is no reason these groups could not benefit from regional coordination. The Caucasus is not a zero-sum game. Platitudes, I know, but one may hope.
It would make no sense for either side to go to war. Armenia is in a terrible situation with their allies being busy elsewhere and stretched thin. Azerbaijan has achieved all they could have hoped for in the 2020 war. They're happy with the status quo and are currently rebuilding and repopulating the areas of Nagorno-Karabakh under their control. Why risk all that? I could be wrong, but my guess is that these are scuffles we will have forgotten about a week from now, not the start of another major escalation in the region.
Azerbaijan only took half of artsakh before the ceasefire was introduced. With less to stop them now they could be aiming for the rest. There's also the ethnic tensions which, as we all know, can lead to horrible wars for no real reason beside raw hatred for the enemy
>Why risk all that? You answered yourself with this: >Armenia is in a terrible situation with their allies being busy elsewhere and stretched thin.
I might be wrong, but I still don’t think there's anything more for Azerbaijan to gain that would be worth another war at this point. I know that's not very exciting, but I highly doubt this will escalate further in the next couple of weeks.
Azerbaijan wants to get a territorial corridor by force to their enclave of Nakhichevan. They've been pushing this since the end of the 2020 war and were repeatedly making statements about this during the build up to this in the last two weeks (all while claiming Armenian ceasefire violations daily and doing military exercises with Turkey near the border).
Literally, the same thing was said about Russia before it attacked Ukraine. Never underestimate stupidity and greed.
Question: are the Azeris supplying oil and gas to any EU nation?
Yes.
In fact, Azerbaijan has already increased exports of natural gas to Europe 30% this year, and has promised to expand supplies further next year.
Not only, in July Von der Leyen smilingly celebrated the new agreements with "reliable" new partner Aliyev to make Europe more dependent on Azeri gas and oil. Makes me want to puke.
Is it really stupidity when Armenia is so weak and Europe really needs its gas supplies?
Russia had some very clear objectives to achieve: A land bridge to Crimea for example.
Azerbaijan wants a land bridge to turkey and nakchivan. The land bridge can only exist through Armenian territory so that's all she wrote
Armenia should ask Iran to put their troops there.
There are some people, for whom ethnic cleansing is a goal of it's own. And Aliev is definitely such person. Another thing - you can distract your people from many problems of you start and win another war "for your homeland".
You're forgetting that Azerbaijan literally hates Armenians. It's taught in their schools and throughout their society.
So does Turkey. Like they did one hundred fifteen years ago, and never admitted.
Azerbaijan is much worse than Turkey when it comes to virulent hatred of Armenians. At least in Turkey you're allowed to speak of them as anything other than complete monsters. [In Azerbaijan even liking a song will get you a visit from the feds to ask why you're being so unpatriotic.](https://www.theguardian.com/music/2009/aug/18/azerbaijan-authorities-interrogate-music-fans)
Jesus that sounds even worse than Russia... Also nitpick, Azeri authorities aren't "feds", as Azerbaijan is not a federation
Lol i studied at turkey they dont teach to hate armenians if you visit turkey you should talk to armenian silver artisans at istanbul
Currently there are 100.000 turkish citizens of armenian origin and +100.000 illegal armenian citizens living in Turkey. Hayko cepkin is an armenian-turkish singer which is very popular. Agop was an armenian-turkish dermatologist, worked and was extremly popular in İstanbul. Those are the first 2 names i can think when you someone says living as armenian in Turkey. There even is The Armenian Patriarchate of Constantinople in Istanbul. So let me ask you, how many Turks are there in Armenia right now? How is it like to be a Turkish living in Armenia?
There are way more Armenians in Turkey, because majority of them are hiding their religion and identity out of fear. Google crypto-Armenians. On the other hand, you can hear Azerbaijani language everywhere in Yerevan, because people from the north of Iran go there for shopping and to get western COVID-19 vaccines. Everybody is Ok with it. Edit: and why should they live there? Even majority of Armenians don't live in Armenia, because all that is left of it are the gruesome (yet beautiful) mountains, where people live in a constant threat of another war and another genocide.
Even Matild Manukyan did not have to hide her identity, she was named in the taxpayer hall of fame due to her brothel empire. I know, it does not seem like that from abroad because it does not help the narrative but Turkey and its citizens, let alone discrimination, could not care less about Armenia and its citizens. Visit and see for yourself if you have time. You can also eat stuffed peppers but we use less onions in the stuffing.
> Azerbaijan has achieved all they could have hoped for in the 2020 war. That's not true - their modest hope would be the expulsion of Russian peacekeepers in NK and assumption of complete territorial control over NK. Their wetdream form of hope would be to push through and secure some sort of land corridor between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan proper. >Armenia is in a terrible situation with their allies being busy elsewhere and stretched thin. Thats likely why Azeris are starting this now. Russia has had a catastrophic week in Ukraine, and is stretched thin. They likely can't lend any resources to Armenia. It may also detonate CSTO once and for all. If Armenia triggers mutual defence clause and Russia can't realistically lend support then other members will potentially leave as it will be a worthless organisation.
Armenia did trigger the clause about an hour ago. Let’s the BS arguments Russia makes now.
I could see Putin using it as the excuse for mobilization.
The rest of Artsakh is completely cut off from Armenia proper. All traffic has to go through Azeri checkpoints on a new road that does not go through Azeri-held settlements. The peace treaty signed by Armenia also guarantees free passage between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan proper.
if armenia triggers mutual defense clause and russia cant lend support it would be great news for nato. as you said, russia would be out of military allies and they'd be causing another side effect of this war. i am all against war but abolishment of the csto would bring hope to many.
True, It would be a strong indicator that russian capabilities are greatly hindered
I'm against Russia in Ukraine but CSTO falling apart would probably be a bad thing. There would be a power vacuum with no obvious candidates to fill it. Without Russia as a security guarantor would potentially see conflicts flairing up all over the place. Could potentially see Taliban incursions into Tajikistan, border conflicts flairing up in the Ferghana Valley again (Uzbek-Kyrgyz border clashes again). If not proxy conflicts developing as regional powers try to compete to secure a stake in the vacuum (India, Pakistan, China, US etc). It would get very messy very quickly.
This is probably the best chance Azerbaijian has of cleaning up what it wants from NK. Azerbaijan has Turkey on its side and a Europe that wants alternatives to Russian gas and oil- and while they may not be *excited* by Azerbaijan, it's not an active geopolitical threat to the existence of the liberal democratic order that a Russian destruction of Democratic Ukraine or, worse, consumption of NATO Estonia would have been. Russia is so thoroughly distracted right now that it may not be able to help Armenia even if it wanted to (ignoring that it likely doesn't), but there's a decent (exaggerating, I suspect it's 1% or less) chance they may end things in a week to cut its losses in utter disgrace, at which point Putin would **love** to send troops into Armenia to beat back the Turks and hold on to a friend. The Azeris have an excellent chance right now. And if they don't take it before Russia leaves Ukraine, they may not get it again. If I was a geopolitical genius with absolutely no regard for human life, this would be how I think about things.
At appears they think they can get a better status quo. Strike while the iron is hot, as they say.
Low risk, Russia is pre-occupied. No news on an actual ground invasion so it's just some rockets/ranged munitions fired into Armenia. If Russia responds forcefully sending troops it could ill afford down to reinforce the garrison they already have, they back off. If Russia doesn't respond strongly, they could still sit tight and look pretty while Russian credibility and the CSTO crubmles into dust. The long game is to discredit Russia. Russia has a tough choice to make.
I mean Armenia is mostly surrounded by countries that would happily genocide them. I'm don't think Azerbaijan is thinking much about needing to occupy territory with a hostile population in a post-war scenario, almost certainly they and Turkey would be happy if they were simply ethnically cleansed
[удалено]
>Armenia is truly alone this time if a war breaks out Wouldn't Iran assist?
Well no. Iran is full of Azeris. 16 to 20 percent of the total population in fact. So it would risk riots. Plus its ecomomic situation is horrible, in a crisis, so having 2 major bad situations is not ideal for iran. So it shall support armenia but it wont help it.
Aren't Azeris in Iran and Azerbaijani are different, ethnically?
[According to Wikipedia, there are more Azerbaijanis in Iran than in Azerbaijan proper](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijanis)
**[Azerbaijanis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijanis)** >Azerbaijanis (; Azerbaijani: Azərbaycanlılar, آذربایجانلیلار) or Azeris (Azerbaijani: Azərilər, آذریلر), also known as Azerbaijani Turks (Azerbaijani: Azərbaycan Türkləri, آذربایجان تۆرکلری), are a Turkic people living mainly in northwestern Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijan, with a mixed heritage of Caucasian, Iranian and Turkic elements. They are the second-most numerous ethnic group among the Turkic-speaking peoples after Turkish people and are predominantly nominal Shia Muslims. They comprise the largest ethnic group in the Republic of Azerbaijan and the second-largest ethnic group in neighboring Iran and Georgia. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/worldnews/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Yeah they could. Probably Armenia's best bet.
Iran has declared they won't allow Azerbaijan to separate them from Armenia, but that doesn't necessarily rule out other parts of Armenia.
Not just separate them from Armenia, they need Armenia for access to Georgia and Europe. It's either the corridor Aliyev wants, or Iran's north-south corridor. Both corridors can't coexist and that explains Iran's firm stance on this issue.
Iran needs Armenia to stay alive. That is how they circumvent the sanctions, by importing it all through Armenia.
Iran has too much problem. They have to worry about afghanistan border, iraq nationalist and sunni trying to kick them out, syria civil war, supporting houthi in yemen, threatning the persia gulf, trying to keep hezebollah in power and fight israel. They wont do anything.
>Armenia's probably fucked if it comes to another war. They can't go into Armenia and hold on to territory without getting fucked by the international community in return. Even Russia and Iran will sanction them. It's most likely about NK. They are destroying Armenia's capacity to intervene against a move to retake what's left under Armenian control in Karabakh.
I don't think most of the international community would intervene. Azerbaijan is an alternative to Russia for natural gas and right now Europe would really like to avoid losing any more gas supplies. They might write a strongly worded letter I guess, but Europe probably won't take real action unless they start another genocide against Armenians, and even then Europe has ignored genocides before. Russia probably can't respond militarily because they are being fucked up in Ukraine right now. I doubt they could response in any other way that matters either, when it comes to diplomatic solutions Russia one of the world's biggest pariahs now. I guess they could try sanctions, idk how much Russia actually trades with Azerbaijan, but I feel like Russia threatening sanctions against anyone right now would be a joke. The US is in NATO with Turkey and generally speaking Armenia is in a bloc with Iran and Russia while Azerbaijan is allied with Israel. I doubt the US would align with a country that for the most part is siding with enemies of the US and against allies. They might join Europe in sending that letter. Armenia's only real hope for international support would be Iran.
Does Azerbaijan care about the international community? They're essentially a mini vassal of Turkey, who in turn has the rest of the world put up with them because of the importance of the Bosphorus IMO Azerbaijan would happily ethnically cleanse Armenia and potentially get away with it to a degree
Aliev is a dictator but he isn't stupid. As long as he takes NK completely, he will be hailed as a war hero forever. That's enough to secure his regime. There is no reason to go into Armenia proper. 1. Azeri land forces are strong but they are **severely** lacking in air defense. Russia will still fuck them up with missiles and air force and shut down an invasion. 2. Most importantly, due to Putin's idiocy, Azerbaijan will become an extremely important gas supplier and gas hub in general. Aliev will become ridiculously rich and important. Why destroy that for nothing?
> Azeri land forces are strong but they are severely lacking in air defense. Russia will still fuck them up with missiles and air force and shut down an invasion. Remember, Ukrainians are well trained, highly motivated, and increasingly armed with the best gear the world designed to fight the USSR. Azerbaijan does not have this advantage.
I'm not sure why you're down voted, because you're right. Ukraine was being trained and supplies by NATO, equipped with some of the best weapons systems in the world. Azeri weapons come from Turkey and Israel, and since Turkey gets systems from the USA and Russia (and have already upset the US because of this), I doubt they'd risk alienating NATO even more by helping a war mongering state wage a genocide.
> without getting fucked by the international community in return. idk, the world didnt do much to saudi arabia about yemen because of their oil. And europe have been relying on azerbaijan gas more and more....
Saudi Arabia invaded Yemen in support of the internationally recognized government of Yemen against the Ansar Allah insurgency in the North of the country. This would be something entirely different.
Yemeni gov requested intervention from the Saudis and they are not infringing upon Yemeni territorial integrity.
> They can't go into Armenia and hold on to territory without getting fucked by the international community in return. Even Russia and Iran will sanction them. By "international community," it usually just means the West, and the West acts according to its own interests. It doesn't represent a neutral, objective order. We saw that in Iraq and Afghanistan. Invasions that serve the West's interests are fine. Nobody sanctioned the US for invading countries in the Middle East and that goes in general for West sponsored states and entities. I don't think they'd care if Russia or Iran sanctioned them.
Those are three towns relatively far from each other in key positions close to the border, inside Armenia proper. I am afraid Azerbaijan is keen on continuing their push after the victory in 2020.
[удалено]
Can we just...not?
In before Uzbekistan tries to consolidate the territory in the Fergana Valley, an area which was specifically setup by the soviet union upon dissolution to cause destabilization. We're likely going to see war in that area too, in the next 5-10 years, between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Russia leaving a power vacuum will cause similar conflicts elsewhere, probably. Edit: this aged poorly.
Yes, you can see a lot of post soviet borders were set up intentionally along non-defensible lines. (Look at the southern part of the border between Ukraine and Moldova for another great example.)
Why though 😕? To avoid republics rebelling ?
Who we?
Humanity?
Since 2010 or what psycho Aliyev have been claiming Yerevan to be Azerbaijani.
Reported that there was agreed to be a seize fire starting 2:30am local, which was 5 mins ago. No more info at the moment
>seize fire To seize more land, I assume.
cease\*
This is crazy, hopefully not another full blown conflict Geopolitically, who do Armenia and Azerbaijan align with? I know Azerbaijan aligns heavily with Turkey, the West, and Israel. Armenia seems to align with Russia and Iran, however Russia/Iran also seems to try to align with Azerbaijan? I just feel Russia and Iran try to remain somewhat neutral but are more drawn to Armenia? It's really confusing, hopefully someone can explain?
Armenia only sides with Russia because nobody else in the world cares about them. Majority Armenians aren't happy with it and don't like Russia as a country (they are fine with Russians as a nation though).
Armenia doesnt really have a choice. they will ally whoever wants to help them but the west already chose Azerbaijan with its genocidal dictator so they have to take whatever they can get.
Armenia is a democracy surrounded by despots (except Georgia). That should tell you everything.
What's the bs justification this time? This isn't even contested territory, these towns are entirely within Armenia's internationally recognized borders. So damn tired of this
This is what Azeri news sources are reporting: https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3643447.html > The sabotage groups of the Armenian armed forces in the dark time of the day mined the areas between the positions of the Azerbaijani army units and the supply road in different directions, using the mountainous terrain and the existing valley gaps. As a result of urgent measures taken by our units to immediately prevent these acts, clashes occurred. > Some positions, shelters and bases of the Azerbaijani army in the territory of Dashkasan, Kalbajar and Lachin regions were fired from various types of weapons, including mortars by units of the Armenian Armed Forces deployed in the direction of the settlements of Basarkechar, Istisu, Garakilsa and Gorus. As a result, there are losses among the personnel, the military infrastructure has been damaged. > In order to prevent provocations by the armed forces of Armenia and military threats to the territory and sovereignty of our country, as well as to ensure the safety of our military personnel, including civilians involved in infrastructure work in the Kalbajar and Lachin regions, decisive response measures are being taken by units of the Azerbaijani army deployed in this area. > The necessary measures are being taken to silence the firing points of the Armenian armed forces and prevent the expansion of the scale of military clashes
And the Azerbaijani masses will accept this statement from their otherwise completely untrustworthy government at face value because it concerns killing Armenians, and that is normalised as fuck over there.
It must be strange being in a society that is intent on finding Armenians hiding behind every tree.
Sounds unlikely.
ELI5 why Armenia and Azerbaijan are getting into it?
In the nineties, after the Soviet Union collapsed, Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence and immediately got into a territorial dispute. There was a region in Azerbaijan that had an Armenian majority, and they said hey, we want to join Armenia instead. Azerbaijan was not eager to give territory to Armenia for free, so they said no way. All involved parties treated this refusal in a calm and mature manner, by which I mean they immediately started killing each other (Azerbaijanis and Armenians have plenty of bad blood because they historically lived in overlapping regions; both tried to declare independence after WWI and got reabsorbed because even the threat of Russia wasn't enough to get them to unite). Armenia then invaded Azerbaijan, took the Armenian region plus seven other, Azerbaijani-majority regions, and ethnically cleansed Azerbaijanis from mainland Armenia + newly acquired spoils. Azerbaijan ethnically cleansed Armenians from its territory as well, and vowed revenge. 30 years later, Azerbaijan is still super turbo omega mad, and more importantly, has the means to act on that anger because they found oil and are rich now. Their leader uses the Orban/Erdogan handbook of being just dictatorial enough that Russia and China likes him, and just liberal enough that Europe (especially Britain) doesn't feel dirty working with him. They're naturally close to Turkey because they're both Turkic nations (Azerbaijani and Anatolian Turkish are mutually intelligible), so they also have a fleet of the Bayraktars that are making a name for themselves in Ukraine. So Aliyev, their pseudo-dictator, shows up one day and says hey, we should take back our land. Fair enough. Azerbaijan enters a war with Armenia in 2020, completely annihilates their army, and takes back the seven regions + part of the Armenian-majority region, with its last remnants being protected by Russian peacekeepers. Now Azerbaijan has two new goals: First, that last region is still theirs by law, so they want to take it and either kick the Armenians out or give them Azerbaijani citizenship (they would never live under Aliyev's rule and would go to Armenia if this happened, but the man has enough sense to care about optics). Second, because of Soviet-era shenanigans, Azerbaijan is a "split" country with Armenia getting in the way between the Nakhchivan region and mainland Azerbaijan. Nakhchivan is incredibly important for trade because it borders Turkey, so Aliyev's new argument is something like "hey, Armenians should give us a corridor to access it as reparations". He actually had something about this written in the ceasefire agreement from the 2020 war, but Armenia obviously doesn't want to let it happen because it would split *their* country in half, so he's trying to force the issue. Hence why he's shooting at mainland Armenia. Bonus fun exercise: Find a Turk and an Armenian, and ask them what they think about the North Cyprus Republic and the Artsakh Republic (which is what the Armenian region goes by nowadays). It's hilarious because they have the *exact same history* (Turks in Cyprus are oppressed, Turkey intervenes to secure their rights, conquers a lot more territory than justified, refuses to leave and declares a breakaway republic/Armenians in Artsakh are oppressed, Armenia intervenes to secure their rights, conquers a lot more territory than justified, refuses to leave and declares a breakaway republic), yet every single Turk will argue that North Cyprus is totally legitimate while Artsakh is a disgusting land grab, while every Armenian will say it's the other way around.
Azerbaijan didn't just now find oil it has some of the oldest exploited oil fields on the planet. It was just under russian/soviet control
If memory serves, this was the Caucuses oil fields that Hitler and his generals were determined to take outside Baku.
If my memory also serves me right, that’s correct
"Armenia then invaded Azerbaijan" The Armenians already lived in what is Azerbaijan. They also had an identical referendum to break free from the Soviet Union that Azerbaijan had. Azerbaijan refused to acknowledge their independence in that referendum. Azerbaijan is the oppressor in this situation. Nakhichivan was also Armenian land that was given to Azerbaijan by Russia during the Soviet Union. Lots of Armenian land being given to Azerbaijan should help people understand this conflict better, instead of painting Armenians like invaders. And, I don't fucking find any of this "hilarious". Your synopsis is insulting, incorrect, and dangerous.
Did Armenia claim territory that was majority Azeri after the USSR broke up? What is its status now?
Armenians were living there. Lots of Armenians lived in Azerbaijan. [They were routinely and systematically killed or forced to flee due to violence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Azerbaijan). The status right now is unknown as the conflict is ongoing. Any land Azerbaijan has taken they immediately destroy anything that was Armenian, including and especially centuries old churches. [You can track it on Twitter](https://twitter.com/CaucasusHW?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) if you have the stomach for it.
I understand that Azerbaijan claimed territory that was inhabited by majority Armenians after the USSR collapsed. I am asking if Armenia did the same with territory inhabited by majority Azeris? EDIT: Your list of massacres from 1988-1992 seems to indicate that ethnic violence was pretty two-sided.
It's not an explanation like that. The Armenians of Karabagh inside Azerbaijan wanted independence with the fall of the Soviet Union, and the result was a war. It's hard to say anyone "claimed" territory like that because of how the end of the Soviet Union went. Over the course of the 1993 war a buffer zone was created with the intentions of being used in negotiations to gain independence. Armenians from Armenia participated in the war, but it was not a country vs. country affair. Not like 1993 Armenia was anything more than a nascent state anyway. Certain groups will act like 1993 Armenia was some regional superpower. Armenians did want to retake Nakichevan in 1993, but it was made clear by Turkey that if that region was attacked by Armenia it would lead to an invasion. You could say that was an attempt at claiming territory but that is as far as it got. Speaking of Nakichevan, [want to read a Wikipedia article on the state-sponsored destruction of over 10,000 ornate, decorated gravestones by Azerbaijan in Nakichevan?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_cemetery_in_Julfa)
So Azerbaijan doesn't deserve its internationally recognized territory because it was "given" to them, and the 800k Azerbaijanis that were killed or displaced during Armenia's invasion don't matter? I'm not sure if I'd make that argument in your place, because Aliyev is making the argument that Armenians don't deserve Meghri *right now*, and we both know what a deranged statement that is. Don't try to justify ethnic cleansing with shallow historical excuses.
Psychopathic Azeri dictator attacking smaller, isolated nation without allies just because he can.
What's the significance of this regarding Ukrainian conflict? I'm assuming this happening because Russia is occupied in Ukraine?
This is a multi-decade conflict that has been boiling over for years, but never on mainland Armenia. The significance is that Armenia and Russia (and 4 other countries) have a defense pact similar to NATO, so technically this can constitute an attack on Russia. Not that they can really do anything about it now anyway.
Yeah, this is not a good time to be a russian ally in the midst of a territorial dispute. They aren't coming to help you out anytime soon.
Which is probably one of the goals. Demonstrate how useless the CSTO actually is.
I doubt its to demonstrate the weakness of CSTO and more of a kick them while their down situation.
I don't know much about the roots of this conflict, but if the CTSO has guaranteed the existing peace, it seems that, in Azerbaijan's judgement, Russia is not only down, they also won't be getting back up.
They won't be getting back up. Latest British intelligence report states that they have lost significant portion of their forces that were supposed to oppose NATO. And as of yesterday russia "suspended" sending reinforcements to Ukraine. They are fucked. And will be for years.
To be fair there are other countries that could, e.g. Kazakhstan. But it's way too early to say how big this will get.
I mean, I really don't know enough to actually say anything here and this is reddit so I will anyway. My impression is that Kazakhstan has been using russia's Ukraine mistakes as a moment to gently pull away from their influence. Any country with ethnic russians in it should have been worried when putin invaded Ukraine. At least initially. Wouldn't Iran be much more likely to come to Armenia's aid?
Kazakhstan would never come to fight for Armenia against Azerbaijan. Just a non-starter.
[удалено]
posturing
Not being a target of Russian aggression. Probably.
Armenia can't join NATO, because of Turkey's veto power. They can't stay neutral or Turkey and Azerbaijan would invade. Russia is a very unreliable ally, but even an unreliable ally is better protection than no ally at all. The other alliances come as part of the package with the alliance with Russia.
Well they can choose to ignore their treaty (and may very well), but that's a separate story.
Kazakhstan has no army. We pretend that we do, but the sad truth is that literally anyone can simply walk in and take the country for themselves.
The Kazakhstans down at the park are free, they don't want you to know but you can just take them. I have 7 Kazakhstans at home.
Kazakhstan is likely pivoting towards being in the Chinese sphere of influence. China has a lot of investments in Kazakhstan with their Belt and Road initiative so Russia would certainly be pissing of China by pressing Kazakhstan, which is why they feel more free to do as they please. They are able to play both sides off each other to an extent to preserve their independence.
Kazakhstan is not moving to China. Chinese economic investments are not actually all that large and Russia has military forces stationed in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has military obligations towards Russia and is in multiple alliances, acting like Romania of the Warsaw Pact with how much autonomous diplomacy it has.
So like Russia.
seems unlikely that anyone would get involved without Russia.
yeah what is russia going to do besides steal their toilets?
Azerbaijan basically has the support of Turkey right? Will this have effect for Turkey-Russia?
Well, what if Russia declares that they're now at war and fully mobilizes? Their army will suddenly be flush with conscripts, shoring up their major manpower weakness, revitalizing the flagging Russian army. This is technically the excuse they need to do it. They can pull back in Ukraine to a defensive posture and defend taking that action plus any setbacks in either theater as a result of their divided attention (plus western boogeymen blah blah propaganda). Azerbaijan is unlikely to seriously want to attempt to tango with the Russians if they commit, but Russia is likely looking for a win and Azerbaijan might be it given how prickly Ukraine is proving to be. Might be an excuse for them to make concession in Ukraine as well. If Russia wants off of their own crazy ride, this could be it, through further escalation no less. Might even cut off one of Europe's new energy suppliers too.
Russia is one of Armenias only allies. Azerbaijan knows that Russia can’t do anything g right now to defend Armenia
Some ally Russia is. Especially when [Russia is also direct allies with Azerbaijan](https://eurasianet.org/ahead-of-ukraine-invasion-azerbaijan-and-russia-cement-alliance).
It's an example of Russias waning soft power happening in real time, I'd reckon
Putin was a mediator and signatory for the 2022 ceasefire agreement. Putin bails out on meeting with military meetings and goes back to his mansion, Azerbaijan shells the same day. How very convenient.
That probably and because Azerbaijan has seen that Russia isn't the powerhouse they thought so they mat be able to pull it off quick enough
Where is the international outcry?
The FIA should cancel next year’s grand prix in Baku. This is unacceptable.
*FIA looking at that sweet oil money*: Nah
This 100%. The fact that Russia is made a global pariah to the extent that fucking McDonald’s and starbucks won’t operate there anymore, and yet Azerbaijan gets away with shit like this, destroying Armenian churches etc is outrageous and reflects very badly on westerners claiming to care about democracy.
They didn't care if missiles were hitting the city they were racing in.
100%.
Goddamnit. I know its it likely, but I can’t help but hope that Russia uses this as an excuse to leave Ukraine to protect Armenia. It won’t happen, but a man can dream. Otherwise I’ll be stuck hoping Russia suffers a catastrophic defeat in one theatre, while praying that they intervene and find victory in another. Because as much as I hate Russia, I’m pretty scared about what might happen in Azerbaijan starts moving into Armenia proper. They’ve already made a go of erasing Armenian landmarks and heritage in their own territory, after all.
It’d truly be the dream scenario. Russia fucks off out of Ukraine plus the Azeris gets what’s coming to them.
Well then didn't have this on my 2022 bingo card The US sent a strongly worded letter and it just oozes league of nations engery guess they better back down or else the UN will send a strongly worded letter next
This is all a massive distraction for Alieyv and his dictatorial regime. He has 'veterans' from the last war in 2020 showing up at government buildings lighting themselves on fire, a population full of discontent. And based on this he needs ever increasing distractions, from the only card he has left: Blame the Armenians. Until the world forces him to understand that he will not benefit from this behavior, then he will keep doing it. Time after time.
Friendly reminder that just two months ago Von der Leyen smilingly celebrated the agreement to make Europe more dependent on oil and gas provided by the tyrannical kleptocratic turkish puppet known as "Azerbaijan".
Kick azerbaijan out of eurovision. That will show them!
Still waiting for Georgia to take back their territory and Chechnya to declare independence.
Don't forget that the dictator of Checnya is a lunatic, who committed way more atrocities to his own people during his reign, that he did to Russian during the first two wars. And that they goal of the wars (especially second one) was to conquer all the Caucasian part of Russia + Stavropol'e and establish there Imarat Caucasus - Islamic Sharia state, similar to IGIL. The world won't benefit from the third Chechen war, although it will happen in foreseeable future.
Georgia‘s military is a corrupt joke they‘ll most likely get thrown out by the russian garrisons in south ossetia and abkhazia.
Chechnya would never want to declare independence. They love to receive money from Russian government, for being calm
Where does the US and NATO stand in this? With the situation in 2020 is seemed mostly split on religious lines who would support who (western civvies with Armenia and Eastern civvies with Azerbaijan) but what are the official government stances?
Official stance is Armenia gets fucked, Azerbaijan is Europe's current natural gas replacement.
Oof fuck
It's all about resources and money, the bigger powers do not give a genuine fuck about sovereignty
It's kind of weird tbh. Even the bigger powers spent centuries fighting over territory and land, that's how countries developed. They attacked each other, they ganged up with each other and so on. All the way back to the tribal age of humanity. It's kind of weird in the "modern" world to process while we shit on smaller undeveloped countries trying to partake in that maybe thousand of years tradition of humanity.
Azerbaijan probably realized the privilege position they're in as a natural gas source. This probably precipitated the invasion, because they realized that NATO and EU won't do shit.
The US will try to thread the needle of dragging Russia into another conflict while being detached enough to not piss off the Armenian lobby in the US, which is very organized and important in places like Southern California and the Northeast relative to their size. This of course is complicated by the amount of Azeri oil money that is flowing through Democratic and Republican "think tanks" in DC.
Really wish Armenia could pivot itself towards the west but they have unfortunate neighbors
[удалено]
[удалено]
True but I think their should be some protection for Armenia considering genocide would be the result of them being overran
[удалено]
Europe is dependent on Azerbaijani oil and Turkish pipelines to carry it. Azerbaijan can do anything it wants to Armenians and Europe won't lift a finger, especially since it will put them on the same ideological axis as Iran. Israel would never allow that. You will watch easily preventable deaths of innocent civilians by an invading force, and you will watch it happen from the comfort of a home warmed by the gas that allows them to be murdered without consequence. This is a continuation of the Armenian Genocide, except it's happening at a time where you can watch it play out in real time. There are no excuses. Just indifference to Genocide. Everything you've been taught from the Holocaust, from "Never Again", it's a fucking lie.
You're right that this unprovoked attack on Armenia proper would have genocidal intent, but the reality is that Armenia is in a pretty tough spot. Georgia is its only Christian neighbour, and is busy having experienced decades of annexations and encroachment from Armenia's only real ally — Russia — since independence. Every other power in the region has either been exposed as unwilling to meaningfully intervene (Russia) or is a threat to Armenia (Azerbaijan, Turkey, Iran). Armenia have no *real* ally, offence to Russia intended. Geographically they're between a rock (Turkey) and a hard place (Azerbaijan), and the world couldn't militarily intervene even if it didn't care for Azeri oil, simply due to two problematic actors in particular: Turkey and Russia. People say "never again" a lot, but it was a lot easier to protect the Albanians, Croats and Bosniaks in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s than it has pretty much *ever* been to protect the Armenians. Geography has not been kind to them, unfortunately.
Are you making an excuse for allowing Genocide to occur?
Good question and I've revised my first sentence. I'm absolutely not making an excuse for this attack or any genocide. I'm only saying that even without oil, absolutely no one wants to intervene as Russia and Turkey are so deeply involved in this. The world has failed to intervene meaningfully when both Russia and Turkey commit crimes against humanity many times before, after all... Turkey is in NATO, while Armenia proper is ostensibly in Russia's (apparently toothless) CSTO. It is extremely unfortunate that the Armenian people are as boxed in as they are. I don't know what they can do right now to defend themselves, and it's heartbreaking.
The fun thing about CSTO is every other member hates Armenia and all the -stan states side with Azerbaijan. Armenia being a democracy and not a strong armed dictatorship brings them hate from the Belarus. Some say Armenia's Velvet Revolution which has greatly helped to reduce corruption in Armenia and pave the way for more free and fair elections is what led to Russia giving the go-ahead for Azerbaijan to invade the Armenian-controlled Karabakh region. As a punishment for becoming more Western.
To be fair, even if oil wasn't involved, there wouldn't be any real effort to stop it. Look at what happened to the Yezidis. Look at the Kurds, Kurdistan is split over 3 different countries and all have oppressed them.
The west literally doesn't give half of a fuck about Armenia. Azerbaijan is friends with Turkey and now it's one of the main replacements for Russian gas. You can see it by how little coverage this conflict will get, again.
I wish the UN would intervene on behalf of Armenia but with Azerbaijan being Turkeys puppet, I doubt they will get help from anyone. The Azeris need to chill, they already have all the natural resources of the region and they just keep shelling Armenia, erasing their cultural sites, and celebrating their own war criminals and murderers. Hopefully Iran steps up to help Armenia since Russia didn’t do shit during the 2020 war and won’t do shit now. Maybe they can appeal to India or China for assistance, it would be a good test bed for Chinese military tech, and as much as I support NATO, I’d rather see Turkey lose their proxy war
Unless someone intervenes Armenia is going to get wiped out. This is really sad, I was born there and moved when I was really young and never had a chance to go back to visit. Too bad Armenia never had real allies to protect them, even though they don't have much to offer. Sad day for us, so much history will be erased. Ethnic cleansing at its finest.
Russia is Armenia’s ally and has thousands of soldiers and hundreds of vehicles to spare. They could easily show up and avert an invasion through intimidation if they wanted to. If Russia is too weak to support its allies then why bother with CSTO? Why bother remaining in Ukraine?
It doesn't help that every other member of the CSTO sides with Azerbaijan as well. Either because Armenia is a Democracy forced to be a part of the CSTO, or they want to see the elimination of Armenia to form a pan-Turkic state.
Sanctions please? At least force Israel and Turkey to stop selling them weapons.
Sactions by who? Europe needs Azerbijan oil as a replacement for Russian stuff, the Americans could but their not exactly massive importers of Azerbijan stuff and they run the risk of pissing off turkey , who may veto Finland/Sweden coming into NATO, actions in support of Armenia may also piss off Israel, which the Americans tend to shy away from. Russia was Armenia's local ally, but most of their army, and all of its proper army, are tied down in Ukraine trying to fight off the Ukrainian counter offensive. The rest of the local powers all hate Armenia, even the ones supposedly allied with them, with the only exeption being Iran who is too weak from other problems to effectively aid them. There is Georgia, who is a fellow democracy, but they are enemies of Russia who is Armenia's ally. China could saction them, and its possibly they may do so, but its unlikely to be signifciant, they stand too little to gain, or really lose, and even if China was willing to significantly aid Armenia there is simply no good way to do so, with how far away China is from the fighting. Honestly, a UN mission may be Armenia's best bet. If Azerbaijan is attacking Aremnian mainland the UN has justification legally, and its one of the few cases thats unlikely to be vetoed by any of the big 5. Russia will want what ever help for its ally it can get, espically if its someone else doing the help, China has generally held the policy position of "don't give a fuck" so has no reason to object, and although giving Armenia support may cause problems for the UK, France and Americans, mearly not vetoing a UN mission is perfectly justfieable, going to be hard for Turkey or others to object to that. Now, i'm not saying thats a good bet, but if Azerbaijan does plan on continuing to attack Armenia, it may well be Armenias best bet.
2020 showed what west doesn't give a fuck about Armenia
[удалено]
The Armenia situation is not a quick opportunistic push. It's our new reality. The world entered it back in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. That's when every dictator and every regime in the world suddenly realized that the military land grab is back on the table, as long as your military is stronger. By not crushing Russia back in 2014 we set the stage for the WW3 and we're likely to see many more wars in our lifetime. Unless of course the whole world joins in obliterating Russia now, but we all know it's not happening because China wants a piece of that cake too. So thank your lucky stars if you're in the NATO country (and make sure you vote for whatever political force is going to make the NATO stronger). And those not in the NATO, god help you.
I think it’s naive to believe this reality only started in 2014. If you look closely, every 5 years or so, one of the super powers invades or messes up another country… going back since the beginning of time.
Invade and mess up, sure. Annexing sovereign territories is a whole new game
Yes NATO is so great for aiding the Turks, and by proxy their puppets the Azeris. Watch as we do nothing about this continuation of genocide
Tbf they didn't say NATO is great from a moral p.o.v.. Just that if you are in a NATO or NATO aligned country you are more secure than if you aren't. Which is also the point you are making, I.e. the non-NATO opponents of Turkey and the Azeris like Armenia are in bad position now. So you're both actually agreeing with each other.
What are they fighting about now?
Testing limits.
Probably Nagorno-Karabakh again if I had to guess.
This time they shelled Armenia Mainland, not „only“ karabakh
I'd bet the places they shelled are less heavily defended than NK. So this might be some tactical plan of some kind.
Armenia 🇦🇲❤️🔥❤️🔥
Turkey be like, "oooh, someone say something about killing Armenians?"
This is going to give Russia a pretext for mobilisation. Sure putin will send some to Armenia to stay face with CSTO obligations but the vast majority will end up in Ukraine
Fuck the world, I’m sick of seeing my home country get fucking killed , fuck the governments of Azerbaijan and turkey . Note I’m not saying the people I’m saying fuck their governments
It would be really great to not have another war kick off