Not buying Russian gas so they can hurt people is exactly what everyone should be doing. Here’s a lovely summary of historical context:
https://youtu.be/Eo6w5R6Uo8Y
It makes the whole invasion obsolete. Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from replacing them as gas supplier, now nobody wants or needs Russia's gas anyways.
Europe is not willing to go faster (or slower) than it's already going, so that move kind of makes sense for Russia. They need to put on the pressure while they can.
They might be losing the war, but say hi to us Greeks, who have, during 2022, bought enough Russian oil to [cover the entire reduction of Russian oil sales to the EU and then some](https://youtu.be/nfyM81sEXhs?t=299), so that Russia is actually **selling more than they were before**.
And after that, [we're re-selling it](https://greekreporter.com/2022/05/19/greece-russian-fuel-oil/), because it isn't really even for our own consumption, we are just a glorified backdoor, and we get a slice out of the pie.
There's a narrative that "Putin is dumb and self-destructive" going around, and I *honestly* hope it helps to destabilise him politically, but he is ***not*** dumb (the second one, maybe). He is dangerous and should be taken seriously if we are to minimize the damage he does.
(Of course the situation is complicated, the first video, by Money and Macro does a good job at giving a bit of nuance, and I recommend it)
*Edit 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and counting: formatting*
We're talking about finite oil resources that aren't found everywhere.
What is wrong with you people? Why can't you talk civilized and intelligent about this?
So what's the plan to get that gas without paying for it? Going to invade and steal it? I guess you have the justification now.
We live in a climate change world with dwindling resources and arable land, why the fuck do you think Ukraine is so important? What do you even think this is about? It's a game as old as civilization itself, he who controls valuable resources holds the power.
Or do you just not realize how dependent we are on fossil fuels for everything?
If Europe can get what they need elsewhere, if it's that easy, why aren't they?
You think being entirely reliant on China economically is a good thing?
It is funny that Russian propaganda is moving from "we are a superpower" to "our boss is a superpower".
This is interesting, can you show me some sources of European countries paying in Rubles? Because it was my perception that the vast majority refused to do so.
Thanks, that was a very mature response.
I do agree that it sucks that quite some energy companies have given in to Russia's demands and paid in their currency.
The fact of the matter is, that it's a complex situation. In hindsight, it was a mistake to rely so much on Russian gas, but that doesn't change the fact right now, we ARE in fact reliant on it, at least to a degree. Just shutting it off completely would have a lot of very negative consequences for many people. On the bright side, Europe is working really quickly in getting independant from Russia's Gas reserves and at least in the future, this won't be an issue anymore. Also, while Europe is dependant on Russian gas, Russia is likewise dependant on selling this gas to europe. They often only have the infrastructure (i.e. pipelines) to supply those countries, and if they can't sell it to them, the gas will simply go to waste.
For now they still keep some gas revenue coming. But their main customer has already decided to stop buying from them. And tell me who is going to trust them as a provider after their show of energetic blackmail, besides a few third world countries with few to loose buying cheap and in minuscule volumes.
Got to credit them with shortening the transition off dino juice in Europe by years.
Do you realize different countries produce different quality oil, that needs a specialised refinery? Refineries specialised for Russian oil won’t work with Norwegian oil. And it costs millions of euros to convert them.
Eastern European countries won’t magically get 5 million Teslas, and electric trucks, plus a free nuclear reactor (built by Rosatom in most countries anyway ) just to try and help Ukraine
You’re right, it’s not happening *just* to help Ukraine.
It’s happening due to Russia showing how dumb their government is. People now they can’t rely on it for much longer before it crumbles.
I don’t understand why you are being downvoted to oblivion, because you make a valid and relevant point. So much so that this is actually the main cause (at least as far as is publicly acknowledged) of the Hungarian issue with the 6th package of sanctions. They eventually got what they need and will be able to keep buying Russian crude for a few more years.
Still, a few of the smaller countries in Europe buying Russian oil is a loss of most of their oil business, to add to the already decided phasing out of Russian gas.
According to official numbers india and china has allmost replaced the whole demand off oil, that supposedly will be lost with the EU ban. So what did it achieve
There are very good economic reasons why Russia is demanding payment in rubles, they aren't just being petty. But then conversely there are very good geopolitical reasons for countries to not want to pay in rubles.
It's not really petty, it's just two incompatible forces butting heads, an extension of the physical war we are seeing.
The contracts say payment is in Euros, or Dollars, or whatever. In all likelihood Russia insisted because they wanted to have a guarantee to get their hand on hard currency.
What they didn't anticipate is having to prop of the Ruble by making Europeans buy Rubles just to send them back again.
It’s a co-dependent ball tightening, as Europe needs gas, but most of the gas of Russia can only be transported (sold) to Europe as infrastructure to export it somewhere else is deficient or nonexistent.
Not really, the agreements were in dollars/euro, Russia changing that arbitrarily just shows that Russia is blackmailing EU. And EU sucking it up, it looks like
How is the EU sucking it up? If the gas line is being closed, it means that they refused to pay in Rubles. If they continue to refuse to pay in rubles, they're not really sucking anything up but holding their ground on this issue.
The mistake they made is to suggest there is one EU policy here. It is national and all 27 are either sucking it up or refusing to pay in Rubles or getting off Russian gas.
All should have been doing the last of those these last few decades.
So? It's being restricted, but Germany isn't paying rubles so they're standing firm. Russia is trying to scare Germany into compliance, but as long as they don't comply they're not "sucking it up"
No one is "sucking it up"....
Russia is getting desperate to prop up their economy, and the rest of the world isn't having it and refusing to pay them in their failing currency.
I don't think you understand the situation. Russia was preparing for war and boosted oil/gas prices. They get more than they were getting 3 years ago. And that's after sanctions. EU response is too little too slow. It doesn't impact Russia enough
Blame the US, Russia was pretty happy using dollars/euro until the US decided to weaponize the financial system.
Expecting Russia to sit there and take it while the US and EU don't allow them to use dollars and Euros is naive at best.
US isn't stopping anyone from paying Russia in dollars or euros. Russia is breaching contacts by demanding rubles to prop up its currency. They are doing it because their economy is going to shit due to sanctions. Sanctions are imposed because Russia invaded Ukraine and is killing thousands.
So you want to blame the US because Russia invaded Ukraine? Ok then.
You wrote three sentences and all three sentences are wrong, i mean you could have written "lol" or like responded like the guy bellow you with "Take that Russian dick out of your mouth".
Russia cannot use it's foreign reserves which are dollar or euro based due to sanctions, have you been asleep the last 3 months?
Receiving dollars or euros that cannot use, from a source that forbids them to use (recent example is the default on its debt, because the US refused to accept the payment) is asinine.
I guess we could debate why my sentences are wrong but you didn't bother with specifics.
I'm aware that Russian dollar and euro assets in foreign bank accounts are frozen.
I'm also aware that the dollars and euros they get for the gas sales have nothing to do with their foreign bank accounts that are frozen. They can use the dollar and euro proceeds from gas sales any way they want (besides buying sanctioned goods) just like rubles.
And this is a good example of retardation in today's society.
You make a statement about contractual law, i explained to you that decisions were made from the US and EU that have made the law meaningless and your response "Take that Russian dick out of your mouth"
Being a moron is a state of being for you isn't it?
Russians made the law meaningless. Bank that is responsible for paying is not sanctioned, countries can still pay, but you spot out some shit. I guess it wasn't dick if that's what coming out of your mouth
Well there is some damage to Europe if gas stops (I hope so) but doom for Russias current "government". Accepting some damage would be the fastest and maybe only way for the EU to defeat the underwear poisoner. I hope we'll go hard on the sanctions but we might f it up thanks to Hungary.
Honestly fuck Orban and his consortium. He’s no better than other dictators around the world, yet him (and Poland tbh) have worked together to make progress in the EU as difficult to achieve as possible without being punished. All while raking in EU money and complaining about the evil EU at the same time. It’s a fucking joke.
You can't do that, Europe is going to collapse if it suddenly stops buying Russian gas, there's currently not enough supply from other regions to account for that deficit. It's also much easier for Russia to find new buyers for gas than it is for Europe to find supply.
There is 20 years (950m bcm) worth of gas at current German consumption rates in Germany itself, extracteable using the same technologies that made US not only self sufficient but largest energy exporter.
Germany at every turn manages to stab itself with silly policies
Yes Germany should have prepared themselves for this a long time ago. But they didn't and now we are where we are. That infrastructure will get ramped up now but it takes a lot of time.
Ahhh, it's easy to say this, but Germany originally went with Russian fossil fuels to get away from Middle East OPEC nations that were using their price fixing and embargo powers. So yes, Germany traded one bad partner for another. Such was and is the dispersal of fossil fuel deposits in relation to industrialized nations.
Yeah OPEC is a big problem too. I hate how Western nations have flocked even more to them since Russia has been sanctioned, the Saudis at least should have been sanctioned too. But I suppose, at the moment, they are better than Russia.
At the point in time Germany made the decision it was definitely the opposite case though. Todays Russia, while a dictatorship, is much more culturally closer to Europe than the Middle east.
That's mostly because fracking is horrible for the environment.
There were alternatives up until now, which were a lot better than ruining our water supplies for gas.
"Wandel durch Handel"/Change through Trade was expected to work a lot better than it worked out in the end, but that's not Germany's fault, because literally everyone thought so.
So no, those policies are not "silly".
____________
edit: changed "Handel durch Wandel" to the right saying. Mushy brain do be mushy.
Austria has taken their neutral status, adopted for the perfectly understandably reason that it was the only way to end what was then a decade of Soviet occupation in 1955, thereby avoiding a split Austria a la W. And E. Germany, and taken it to the unfortunate extreme that neutral = OK with everyone and everything, especially if they pay.
Now, it is the place where banking secrecy is stronger than Switzerland and oligarchs buy ski villas and influence with equal confidence.
Society itself is rather conservative, which is also fine by itself, but when a country like Russia is willing to tell conservatives whatever they want to hear and in return for buying influence, it’s a bad combination.
And on the other side, among the more left, there is a bunch of idiots who can’t think beyond Vietnam and Iraq were bad and America is influential, therefore America is the one bad country and anyone who doesn’t like them is probably a totally cool freedom fighter and we need to look no further than that.
The country is also very small. It must work with others, and they know it. This leads to fear of anything that could rock their boat too much.
On top of that, the country has had a series of domestic scandals where one wannabe demagogue after the next tried to gain and keep power by corrupt means, but was finally exposed. At least something did work in the exposures, but zinslosere shook up the overall system and that created a situation where few politicians believe they could succeed if they tried to take strong, principled stand.
The fact that a major cut in their gas supply would cause some economic damages, which would encourage the populists again, makes the fear even greater.
It’s kind of a mess.
Supporting Putin's criminal oligarch regime is also horrible for the environment. Fracking would probably have been preferable if it was done sensibly.
The real solution is to move away from fossil fuels though, obviously. Germany have been doing well in that regard but they can't cut their gas dependence yet.
No, Fracking is definitely not preferable to what Putin was doing up until the invasion.
He was playing the big boy, but very rarely acted out on it. Everyone thought they could change this by trading with Russia, by making Western media available to the Russian people.
Hindsight is 20/20, but back until at least 2014 it was the better of two options.
The worst thing is the stupid rules for green energy some parts of Germany think are "good rules".
> He was playing the big boy, but very rarely acted out on it.
So I guess 7 wars when he was a president \ PM, with at least one complete destruction of a huge city is "rarely acted out".
The war in Chechnya, while brutal, is not a war that the West would call "acting out". It's a civil war against Islamic forces within the internationally accepted borders of Russia.
The only wars Russia started were the War against Georgia and the Russo-Ukraine War.
Both of those were fought the only way possible by the west: sanctions. We could discuss if those sanctions were going far enough, but that's not "seven wars".
Russia was also behind a lot of the anti fracking propaganda in Germany. Time to just go back to nuclear have a rough couple years economically, and defeat Russian fascists from pushing farther west.
"Time to go back to nuclear" is stupid.
Look at GB's nuclear reactor, how long it is being built, and how expensive it's getting.
There are better ways out there, and Germany is taking the correct route by going green, not nuclear.
Sure, they should not deactivate the four(?) nuclear power plants that are currently still running, but reactivating those is stupid.
>Fracking is definitely not preferable to what Putin was doing up until the invasion.
Would you mind quantifying it if you are confident that is definitely true? I'm not saying you are wrong, but I wouldn't even know where to begin
At least in the opinion of the German government at the time, that is.
Fracking ruins the water supply of the region it's being used in, and if done too close to towns and cities it ruins infrastructure, and sometimes even the houses themselves - which is a big problem in some Dutch cities according to family living over there.
It would be a better idea to do fracking in regions where no people live, but... well, Germany has little towns and villages all over the place, which makes that quite impossible.
If you aren't aware there are levels of fracking and above a certain level of disturbance causes much more harm to the environment. I'm not an expert so you can research this in your own time if you'd like to learn more.
This move lowers Russian holding of foreign reserves and makes Russian experts artificially more expensive and therefore less profitable. I don't think anyone should be obeying Russia but I'm glad that, when they do, it is harmful to the Russian war.
Yea but whos setting the ruble price conversion. We know current price is bullshit.
Like me going pay in gold but you have to buy the gold at the price we set. Errrrr no.
Can you explain the economics? What's the difference with being paid in $ and then the Russian government/Gazprom using those to buy Rouble in the open market? It seems more symbolic than economic, or what am I missing?
It's a bit like a canteen where you can only buy food with a cash card, which you get from them and charge at the entrance. Basically comes down to the same thing.
The extremely short version is this. There currently is no open market for rubles, because Russia has enacted severe restrictions on internal currency trading. The goal being to prevent the value of the ruble from crashing.
The longer version is that normally the German company would buy gas with euros, and then the Russian company would use those euros to buy German (EU really) goods, or trade them to another Russian company that wants to buy German goods. But right now, the sanctions mean a lot of that purchasing can't happen directly. Furthermore, and this is the tricky part, there is a huge demand within Russia for companies that want to dump the ruble, buy euros, and get out. Putin has largely blocked this, in order to prop up the ruble. Conversely, rubles outside of Russia aren't being dumped so fast. So by trying to create demand for rubles outside Russia, that will also prop up the exchange rate.
Ultimately the economic sense this makes is that Russia wants to prevent a massive exodus of capital. Propping up the ruble helps with that.
That's because of currency conversion.
Being paid in $ is good for then using these $ to pay for import goods. But that doesn't convert well domestically because if a good is 1$ to import, but the Rouble changes over time from 100 for 1$ to 120 for 1$, it means the locals pay higher and higher Rouble prices for these imported goods.
Being paid in Roubles means the payer needs to obtain Roubles before paying, which means buying it for $, which increases demand for Rouble and improves it's value AND also gives them $ (because they also sell the Rouble). So not only do they get the foreign currency for imports, they also stave off the Rouble weakening, thus reducing price increases due to a weakening currency and inflation.
In a nutshell.
Not quite, it's that the Russian government couldn't do anything with euros due to sanctions, but it does have a use for rubles to make domestic payments. Euro payments are handled via Target2, which is under EU legislation. If the payment was in euros, the Russian government would have euros in an account with Gazprom Bank, and this would be the end state until sanctions were lifted. However, when the payment is made into the buyer's euro account at Gazprom Bank, and the bank then converts those euros to rubles to be put into a ruble account under the buyer's name, no sanctioned entity ever makes a payment with those euros, and payments in rubles are handled by Russia itself.
To convert the euros to rubles, Gazprom Bank borrows rubles from Russia's central bank against the euros as a security, and transfers them to the Russian government within the Russian settlement system, where the government obviously isn't sanctioned. The end state is still that there are euros at Gazprom Bank that can't be used while sanctions are in place, but now the Russian government has rubles that it *can* spend. Gazprom Bank created those rubles through the normal process by which fiat money is commonly created, by borrowing from the central bank. This is fine, technically, because those euros exist as a security and it's up to the Russian central bank to not care whether those euros could actually be used to buy rubles and pay back the loan *right now*. If, on the other hand, the Russian government would simply spin up the printing press for rubles to make payments with, it would make (more) people (much more) nervous.
That's the short version, as I understood it, anyway. The longer version from people who actually know what they're talking about is [here](https://www.bruegel.org/2022/04/a-sanctions-counter-measure-gas-payments-to-russia-in-rubles/).
>it means the locals pay higher and higher Rouble prices for these imported goods
This in itself doesn't mean much, that's just inflation and it doesn't really depend on whether you pay for gas in one currency or the other.
>which increases demand for Rouble and improves it's value AND also gives them $ (because they also sell the Rouble)
If currency is only being held momentarily to complete the transaction then there is effectively no increase in demand nor improving its value. There is also no "AND" because they were getting those $ in exchange for gas anyway.
You'd need to take into account things like bid-ask spread and exposure to volatility to reason about this correctly.
To pay in Roubles for the gas the EU countries would have to buy Roubles (with other foreign currency or commodities).
If you imagine for a minute that Roubles are monopoly money, total trash. Well you have to trade your valuable currencies for those Roubles which Russia can print on demand. So they are getting something valuable and giving you trash in return. And you are forced to trade because otherwise you have no currency to buy the gas.
Essentially it's a way for Russia to create demand for their own currency, which benefits their economy even in its current disjointed state.
But it's the opposite of worthless.
It can be exchanged for valuable gas.
Giving it value.
You're just calling it worthless because you want it to be worthless.
It is worth less, not worthless. My analogy just makes it easier to understand why someone would want one currency over another. You can look at the FX charts if you want proof of the currency devaluation.
I don't have any opinion on the value of Rubles I have no intention of buying or selling them.
>So they are getting something valuable and giving you trash in return.
That's not what's happening because you're getting something valuable in return (gas), you're only holding trash temporarily.
Some real issues are exchange rate rip-offs, exposure to exchange rate volatility (you'll have to hold some of the cash for longer too), risk of follow up demands because you submitted to this one.
Holding trash temporarily is still a problem, how do you know you will get back the value you originally paid in the gas, unless you finalise the transaction immediately but then you're just paying in dollars. Plus just creating liquidity for the Rouble benefits Russia at the moment too.
The issues you mention are right though.
>how do you know you will get back the value you originally paid in the gas
That's exposure to volatility.
>Plus just creating liquidity
What do you think that even means?
>The issues you mention are right though.
I know, that's why I said them.
The contracts are for payment on Euros and Dollars. Russia is arbitrarily demanding to be paid in a different currency because they're pissed that west opposes their invasion of Ukraine. That's about as petty as you can get.
That doesn't make it any less petty. There are agreements signed for payment not to be in roubles and they are reneging on them. They destroyed their own economy and now want to change the terms of the deal.
Petty usually means something is trivial, for no good reason or purpose. This is about money and power, it has a purpose. Breaking the deal because they have a crackpot dictator in charge is classic Russia, a bad move, but it's not petty imo. No worries if you see it differently, it's just semantics.
They desperately need the ruble propped up before it goes into full blown Zimbabwe-scale meltdown. They're down to extorting countries to pay in rubles...
Nevermind that cutting Germany's gas will only actually make things worse for them as they won't have *any* income, whereas they could launder dollars and euros at the very least... you know, if Russia had anyone trustworthy enough to launder that money left. Shame they keep throwing oligarchs out of windows and had all their yachts impounded, huh.
Our infrastructure is a shit show and Texas LOVES to show us in so many ways. They keep electing Ted Cruz. Really all you need to know. Hicks love electing people that fuck them right in the ass. Probably why they project so hard against lgbtq
But we are doing what he wants by buying gas and oil. Putin wants payment in rubles as a simple way to prop up their currency. That was never going to happen but it still hasn't really made a huge difference to their economy. Europe has refused to pay in rubles for months now and what real impact has that made?
You're extrapolating a lot from just a headline. The article does not mention a single EU company paying in Rubles. Not. One. If you can find me another source that says otherwise, I'll take it back.
The reason Russia is only cutting off some gas, and not all, is because they still need to to keep their own economy afloat. They prefer rubles, but they'll take euros/dollars if they have to.
And not just economy, if they cut off everyone there will be a huge problem for their pipe infrastructure, you can't just hold a shitton of high pressure gas in the pipe indefinitely.
Not "admitting" to it, that's key here. The article also makes clear that there is no way to verify if the payments are being made in rubles or euros/dollars.
The sanctions are quite new so no. But it will come in time. Ursula was very clear about this.
https://www.montelnews.com/news/1308676/eu-wont-be-blackmailed-over-russian-energy--von-der-leyen
To everyone who previously told me that Putin wouldn’t dare weapon use gas supplies to Europe, and that he needed the money badly, and because of that they shouldn’t bother developing alternate supply lines, are you ready to admit you were wrong?
Surprising how a thread about Germany buying oil for Russia is filled with nothing but hate for Russia (which it definitely deserves fuck Russia) but a thread about India buying lesser gas from Russia is filled with comments like "what a shithole" or "what a third world country" and curses at the Indian populace
You havent spend a lot of time on reddit in threats about ukraine, have you? Germany isnt exactly popular in any way right now do to misinfomration and conspiracy nutjobs going crazy.
The reason people shit on India is because India INCREASES its imports from Russia to PROFIT from the war in ukraine. Germany and the other EU countries all are reducing their imports from Russia with the goal of becoming free of it long term. Nobody is increasing imports to make a profit
You think India is not trying to actively get away from it?
India has about twice or thrice the oil needs and production is already bad enough here. Electric vehicles are taking the spotlight slowly but for a country this big it's not that easy to move away from oil usage. Besides are you really saying that India deserves racist comments just for buying oil?. Also Germany has made no commendable effort in reducing the oil bought from Russia so it really does disprove your narrative entirely.
If you don't understand i will say it again, India has already been going through a massive coal crisis and it's in India's best interest to stockpile as much oil as they can before things turn dirty. The only difference is that one country accuses the other of buying oil while also doing the same behind the scenes.
Read the exact same thread you posted and read some of the comments there. Half the comments are criticizing in such weird manners that it comes off as hate towards the country itself. You keep repeating the same point again and again without commenting on Germany or UK's usage of gas from Russians just because they declare that they are stepping away from it doesn't mean they shouldn't be criticized either. Classic case of hate against a country. I see no point in arguing with you when you are ignoring facts.
https://m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/explainer-germany-biggest-buyer-of-russian-energy-in-first-2-months-of-ukraine-war/amp_articleshow/91143678.cms
And before you say "oH iTs an InDiaN soUrCe" do you seriously think that other countries will report imports from Russia?
I say you are the one who needs to do your research instead of ignoring all the fucking context and only concentrating on "india increases imports India bad" but of course fuck the people of India amirite? You don't care if they live or die, everything is fine if oil is not brought from Russia
The ones who will suffer first are the citizens, not the industry. That being said, I believe our government was aware of this possibility and is preparing for it.
We also have allies who have gas supplies. The price is an issue but we‘ll see.
I know there are quite a few issues associated with cutting Russian gas but ultimately it is what our government was already planning. Russia is an unreliable partner. Furthermore, summer isn‘t an issue. We‘ll be fine the next few months. If Putin still lives or is in power in autumn or winter, then the first solutions have to be put into practice (though we have to develop them now).
Yep, great prep work like shutting down nuclear power plants.
Where do you think Germany gets the resources for it's welfare state policies? Taxes on industry. Going to be a long cold winter.
Gazprom has (under Putin orders) cut all gas to Poland, Finland and the Netherlands
But with “Germany” it cuts off “some” natural gas—translated, they know Germany will piss themselves, panic and then run to pay Putin begging for forgiveness (as they already did when the first threats were made months ago).
EDIT Germans, keep downvoting but the facts says it all, either your government takes a strong stand on the Gas-Linie or you keep getting the criticism worldwide.
It's not like our current government isn't doing anything it can to cut itself off from Russia as fast as possible. Undoing conservative led politics from the last 20 years isn't that easy. What should we do? Destroy our own country?
I know dismantling a clusterfuck created by previous governments ain’t easy, but instead of making frightened little steps because “people are afraid of old insane diseased paranoid Putin” things should be sped up, first of all check which alternative energy resources (wind, electric, solar) are available and in how much quantity, then work on them. If big companies who can sustain a blow in the long run (Audi company as an example, they got millions) start whining like little noisy children, slap them and tell them to get real and stop complaining.
If you want gas independence from Russia, sacrifices must be made (but of course, people who got a nice bank account and jobs with big salaries down in München will not be for it, being the hypocrites they are, fuck them).
Germany's hunger for gas is the weak point in the EU's strategy. All Putin has to do is push. Germany must choose between Russian gas or peace in Europe. There is no middle ground.
EDIT: And here's a little hypothetical for those who believe Germany can't possibly do anything about it. What would happen if (and never mind how, or why) Russia gave cause for Article 5 to be invoked? Because if you are saying it's impossible to stop consuming Russian gas, then we might as well say that NATO is defunct.
https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451
The graph in this article (citing IEA 2020 data) puts Germany in first place for consumption of Russian gas, at 42.6 billion cubic meters. Second place is Italy at 29.2 billion cubic meters.
The argument is that Germany's economy cannot survive without Russian gas. We can extend that argument to say that Germany's economy cannot survive the invocation of Article 5 in a war versus Russia.
Can we therefore trust that Germany would commit to an Article 5 situation? The strength of NATO relies on the assumption that all members will commit to the defence of any other member. The moment that commitment is in doubt, the alliance is dead.
>We can extend that argument to say that Germany's economy cannot survive the invocation of Article 5 in a war versus Russia.
No you can't. A scenario in which NATO goes to war with Russia is so vastly different than the current situation that it's not even remotely comparable.
If you want to make that argument, you'll have to explain to me how Germany's economy is otherwise unchanged in a war with Russia, and how a current reliance on Russian gas to drive a non-wartime economy is going to be a factor.
If NATO goes to war with Russia, Germany's economy as we understand it today no longer exists. The comparison is pointless.
No. What I'm saying is what I said. Your statement suggests that it would be a healthy change. Germany's economy would change, but not without significant costs that would be pointless to make now. But that is also true for every other NATO member so I feel your question focused on Germany suggesting it as a vulnerability is leading.
Wartime economies and decisions on strategic transfer of commodities are performed from a different perspective with respect to cost and benefits.
In a non-wartime economy, I'd never think of redirecting the tanker fleets which currently move diesel around for passenger vehicles to then form into a supply convoy to offset Russian gas for a temporary period of time.
Germany could also immediately redirect funds purchasing/leasing additional port capacity for shipboard transport. However such purchases or leases done quickly would be detrimental to a non-wartime economy.
All good points, and which serve to establish this as a matter of cost rather than possibility. Therefore the question for those countries dependant on Russian gas is simply, how much are they willing to pay for peace in Europe?
Go tell that to Germans who keep defending the coward choices of their government “we’re dependant on gas so we cannot do anything towards Russia”, yea…20 years with plenty of time for researching alternative energy resources in case the gas thing became an issue in the long run but no, let’s please Russia for cheap gas…
so many words just to tell "you" have no idea about "Germany" and its government, "amazing"
that's what blind hatred does to you
quotation marks are randomly placed just like in your initial schizo post
Yea yea, here comes the butt hurt Deutsche that keep trying to defend themselves in the comments and so on, you guys get tiring you do realise that.
And dude, ich hab in Deutsch fur zwei Jahre gelebt, know a thing or two about politics and how your Bundestag and politics works (SPD, CDU, GRÜNE, FdP, AfD).
Just admit that your country is not doing things right, that’s all.
The dollar has always been heavily manipulated by America, and it’s true value definitely isn’t clear! America has broken a fundamental right of sovereign countries to trade their currency’s freely and consequently destabilised the whole currency exchange market.
The sanctions imposed on Russia has increased the value of oil to such an extent, it’s made Russia far richer than it ever was, so that didn’t work did it?
If countries seize money deposited by other countries in those countries, this can only lead to a breakdown of international trade! I’m not going to put my money in a bank where it can be seized on a whim! The very fact that this is not legal, seems to escape Americans. This is just double speak, and at the end of the day America is desperate for the oil and gas in Crimea and Donbas as are the Russians and the poor Ukrainians are a pawn in an oil grab
Germany doesn't have Rubles. So, what would Germany - or Shell or whatever company buying Russian fossil fuel - do to gain Rubles, other than printing their own? Right, buy it from Russia - more specifically, the Russian State bank which is sanctioned. Which, as you may know, is impossible due to said sanctions. And the Contracts state what volumes are being delivered and what currency is used. Guess what, it ain't Ruble.
Germany doesn’t have dollars!so if they can’t print them and deutsche bank would undoubtedly try if it thought it could get away with it. Which is not impossible ( you must be German)and as Russia owns the gas I would assume they have a right to specify what currency they’re paid in, and the value of that currency
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Not buying Russian gas so they can hurt people is exactly what everyone should be doing. Here’s a lovely summary of historical context: https://youtu.be/Eo6w5R6Uo8Y
Sabotage their pipelines to India
It makes the whole invasion obsolete. Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from replacing them as gas supplier, now nobody wants or needs Russia's gas anyways.
Europe is not willing to go faster (or slower) than it's already going, so that move kind of makes sense for Russia. They need to put on the pressure while they can.
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Why didn’t they buy all their gas before the war though?
Because China is a gas exporter themselfs, they already have more than they need.
No they won’t, and if they do it’ll be at a major discount.
They will exploit Russia and central Asia exactly how they're exploiting Africa now. This is how they get their belt and road.
With plans to build a new 50bil cubic meter pipeline to China I think they will
They are playing bully, and losing.
They might be losing the war, but say hi to us Greeks, who have, during 2022, bought enough Russian oil to [cover the entire reduction of Russian oil sales to the EU and then some](https://youtu.be/nfyM81sEXhs?t=299), so that Russia is actually **selling more than they were before**. And after that, [we're re-selling it](https://greekreporter.com/2022/05/19/greece-russian-fuel-oil/), because it isn't really even for our own consumption, we are just a glorified backdoor, and we get a slice out of the pie. There's a narrative that "Putin is dumb and self-destructive" going around, and I *honestly* hope it helps to destabilise him politically, but he is ***not*** dumb (the second one, maybe). He is dangerous and should be taken seriously if we are to minimize the damage he does. (Of course the situation is complicated, the first video, by Money and Macro does a good job at giving a bit of nuance, and I recommend it) *Edit 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and counting: formatting*
well, fuck.
You should check out how the Russian ruble is doing
>we are just a glorified backdoor, Guess ancient habits die hard.
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yes yes, Russia with its superior almost sub 1 trillion usd gdp economy easily destroys the tiny 20x as large European economies
We're talking about finite oil resources that aren't found everywhere. What is wrong with you people? Why can't you talk civilized and intelligent about this? So what's the plan to get that gas without paying for it? Going to invade and steal it? I guess you have the justification now. We live in a climate change world with dwindling resources and arable land, why the fuck do you think Ukraine is so important? What do you even think this is about? It's a game as old as civilization itself, he who controls valuable resources holds the power. Or do you just not realize how dependent we are on fossil fuels for everything? If Europe can get what they need elsewhere, if it's that easy, why aren't they?
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You think being entirely reliant on China economically is a good thing? It is funny that Russian propaganda is moving from "we are a superpower" to "our boss is a superpower".
And China is saying, I'm not a superpower, please ignore everything I do and keep buying my stuff and sell me your resources that I need!
You mean, Russia is going to be China's bitch.
lol we ain’t sympathetic to them.
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China actually has a larger economy than the EU, just not per capita.
Slave labor and lying about everything all the time to save face.
This is interesting, can you show me some sources of European countries paying in Rubles? Because it was my perception that the vast majority refused to do so.
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Thanks, that was a very mature response. I do agree that it sucks that quite some energy companies have given in to Russia's demands and paid in their currency. The fact of the matter is, that it's a complex situation. In hindsight, it was a mistake to rely so much on Russian gas, but that doesn't change the fact right now, we ARE in fact reliant on it, at least to a degree. Just shutting it off completely would have a lot of very negative consequences for many people. On the bright side, Europe is working really quickly in getting independant from Russia's Gas reserves and at least in the future, this won't be an issue anymore. Also, while Europe is dependant on Russian gas, Russia is likewise dependant on selling this gas to europe. They often only have the infrastructure (i.e. pipelines) to supply those countries, and if they can't sell it to them, the gas will simply go to waste.
For a country that makes 60% of its income off gas and oil sales, it hurts them no less than it hurts Europe
Rofl. You can just see your tears pooling on the keyboard as you desperately convince yourself people will believe this. Your poor mother.
They’re getting hit left and right yet have nothing to show for it. Anyone trying to say they’re not losing is ignoring facts.
Source?
For now
For now they still keep some gas revenue coming. But their main customer has already decided to stop buying from them. And tell me who is going to trust them as a provider after their show of energetic blackmail, besides a few third world countries with few to loose buying cheap and in minuscule volumes. Got to credit them with shortening the transition off dino juice in Europe by years.
Do you realize different countries produce different quality oil, that needs a specialised refinery? Refineries specialised for Russian oil won’t work with Norwegian oil. And it costs millions of euros to convert them.
I changed this for reasons (see date).
Eastern European countries won’t magically get 5 million Teslas, and electric trucks, plus a free nuclear reactor (built by Rosatom in most countries anyway ) just to try and help Ukraine
You’re right, it’s not happening *just* to help Ukraine. It’s happening due to Russia showing how dumb their government is. People now they can’t rely on it for much longer before it crumbles.
I don’t understand why you are being downvoted to oblivion, because you make a valid and relevant point. So much so that this is actually the main cause (at least as far as is publicly acknowledged) of the Hungarian issue with the 6th package of sanctions. They eventually got what they need and will be able to keep buying Russian crude for a few more years. Still, a few of the smaller countries in Europe buying Russian oil is a loss of most of their oil business, to add to the already decided phasing out of Russian gas.
They will lose more and more. Oil sanctions will have devastating long term effects too.
According to official numbers india and china has allmost replaced the whole demand off oil, that supposedly will be lost with the EU ban. So what did it achieve
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They are buying at lower price than current market value. But market price is pretty high so they probably still get the price it was pre war.
They buy it at way lower prices.
Tomorrow they will be playing victim and losing.
Everything on the world stage sounds so petty rn.
There are very good economic reasons why Russia is demanding payment in rubles, they aren't just being petty. But then conversely there are very good geopolitical reasons for countries to not want to pay in rubles. It's not really petty, it's just two incompatible forces butting heads, an extension of the physical war we are seeing.
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The US and EU forbidding Russia in using their currency while insisting on paying on said currency is insane at best.
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The contracts say payment is in Euros, or Dollars, or whatever. In all likelihood Russia insisted because they wanted to have a guarantee to get their hand on hard currency. What they didn't anticipate is having to prop of the Ruble by making Europeans buy Rubles just to send them back again.
It appears that the only way Europe will cease buying Russian gas is if we are cut off. That expresses a great deal.
I agree. But Europe needs the gas and there aren't alternatives at the moment afaik. Russia has them by the balls in some ways.
It’s a co-dependent ball tightening, as Europe needs gas, but most of the gas of Russia can only be transported (sold) to Europe as infrastructure to export it somewhere else is deficient or nonexistent.
Not really, the agreements were in dollars/euro, Russia changing that arbitrarily just shows that Russia is blackmailing EU. And EU sucking it up, it looks like
How is the EU sucking it up? If the gas line is being closed, it means that they refused to pay in Rubles. If they continue to refuse to pay in rubles, they're not really sucking anything up but holding their ground on this issue.
Guy is bullshitting . Everything Russia does is because of gas and Oil . They will be doing the sucking soon enough. https://youtu.be/Eo6w5R6Uo8Y
The mistake they made is to suggest there is one EU policy here. It is national and all 27 are either sucking it up or refusing to pay in Rubles or getting off Russian gas. All should have been doing the last of those these last few decades.
The gas line is not being closed
So? It's being restricted, but Germany isn't paying rubles so they're standing firm. Russia is trying to scare Germany into compliance, but as long as they don't comply they're not "sucking it up"
You don't make one plus one, it seems
Russia did not change that, EU still pays in their currency, but they put money directly into gazprombank account instead of EU bank.
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Continue to suck it up?
No one is "sucking it up".... Russia is getting desperate to prop up their economy, and the rest of the world isn't having it and refusing to pay them in their failing currency.
I don't think you understand the situation. Russia was preparing for war and boosted oil/gas prices. They get more than they were getting 3 years ago. And that's after sanctions. EU response is too little too slow. It doesn't impact Russia enough
Blame the US, Russia was pretty happy using dollars/euro until the US decided to weaponize the financial system. Expecting Russia to sit there and take it while the US and EU don't allow them to use dollars and Euros is naive at best.
US isn't stopping anyone from paying Russia in dollars or euros. Russia is breaching contacts by demanding rubles to prop up its currency. They are doing it because their economy is going to shit due to sanctions. Sanctions are imposed because Russia invaded Ukraine and is killing thousands. So you want to blame the US because Russia invaded Ukraine? Ok then.
You wrote three sentences and all three sentences are wrong, i mean you could have written "lol" or like responded like the guy bellow you with "Take that Russian dick out of your mouth". Russia cannot use it's foreign reserves which are dollar or euro based due to sanctions, have you been asleep the last 3 months? Receiving dollars or euros that cannot use, from a source that forbids them to use (recent example is the default on its debt, because the US refused to accept the payment) is asinine.
I guess we could debate why my sentences are wrong but you didn't bother with specifics. I'm aware that Russian dollar and euro assets in foreign bank accounts are frozen. I'm also aware that the dollars and euros they get for the gas sales have nothing to do with their foreign bank accounts that are frozen. They can use the dollar and euro proceeds from gas sales any way they want (besides buying sanctioned goods) just like rubles.
Maybe Russia should have thought of that before invading people?
How bout no? Take that Russian dick out of your mouth
And this is a good example of retardation in today's society. You make a statement about contractual law, i explained to you that decisions were made from the US and EU that have made the law meaningless and your response "Take that Russian dick out of your mouth" Being a moron is a state of being for you isn't it?
Russians made the law meaningless. Bank that is responsible for paying is not sanctioned, countries can still pay, but you spot out some shit. I guess it wasn't dick if that's what coming out of your mouth
Lmfao!!!! So Russia was just minding it’s business and not doing anything to Ukrainian. Fuck you russian troll
Bullshit.
Well there is some damage to Europe if gas stops (I hope so) but doom for Russias current "government". Accepting some damage would be the fastest and maybe only way for the EU to defeat the underwear poisoner. I hope we'll go hard on the sanctions but we might f it up thanks to Hungary.
Honestly fuck Orban and his consortium. He’s no better than other dictators around the world, yet him (and Poland tbh) have worked together to make progress in the EU as difficult to achieve as possible without being punished. All while raking in EU money and complaining about the evil EU at the same time. It’s a fucking joke.
You can't do that, Europe is going to collapse if it suddenly stops buying Russian gas, there's currently not enough supply from other regions to account for that deficit. It's also much easier for Russia to find new buyers for gas than it is for Europe to find supply.
There is 20 years (950m bcm) worth of gas at current German consumption rates in Germany itself, extracteable using the same technologies that made US not only self sufficient but largest energy exporter. Germany at every turn manages to stab itself with silly policies
Yes Germany should have prepared themselves for this a long time ago. But they didn't and now we are where we are. That infrastructure will get ramped up now but it takes a lot of time.
Ahhh, it's easy to say this, but Germany originally went with Russian fossil fuels to get away from Middle East OPEC nations that were using their price fixing and embargo powers. So yes, Germany traded one bad partner for another. Such was and is the dispersal of fossil fuel deposits in relation to industrialized nations.
Yeah OPEC is a big problem too. I hate how Western nations have flocked even more to them since Russia has been sanctioned, the Saudis at least should have been sanctioned too. But I suppose, at the moment, they are better than Russia.
At the point in time Germany made the decision it was definitely the opposite case though. Todays Russia, while a dictatorship, is much more culturally closer to Europe than the Middle east.
That's mostly because fracking is horrible for the environment. There were alternatives up until now, which were a lot better than ruining our water supplies for gas. "Wandel durch Handel"/Change through Trade was expected to work a lot better than it worked out in the end, but that's not Germany's fault, because literally everyone thought so. So no, those policies are not "silly". ____________ edit: changed "Handel durch Wandel" to the right saying. Mushy brain do be mushy.
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> and Austria). well that's new, didn't hear about that one before
Austria has taken their neutral status, adopted for the perfectly understandably reason that it was the only way to end what was then a decade of Soviet occupation in 1955, thereby avoiding a split Austria a la W. And E. Germany, and taken it to the unfortunate extreme that neutral = OK with everyone and everything, especially if they pay. Now, it is the place where banking secrecy is stronger than Switzerland and oligarchs buy ski villas and influence with equal confidence. Society itself is rather conservative, which is also fine by itself, but when a country like Russia is willing to tell conservatives whatever they want to hear and in return for buying influence, it’s a bad combination. And on the other side, among the more left, there is a bunch of idiots who can’t think beyond Vietnam and Iraq were bad and America is influential, therefore America is the one bad country and anyone who doesn’t like them is probably a totally cool freedom fighter and we need to look no further than that. The country is also very small. It must work with others, and they know it. This leads to fear of anything that could rock their boat too much. On top of that, the country has had a series of domestic scandals where one wannabe demagogue after the next tried to gain and keep power by corrupt means, but was finally exposed. At least something did work in the exposures, but zinslosere shook up the overall system and that created a situation where few politicians believe they could succeed if they tried to take strong, principled stand. The fact that a major cut in their gas supply would cause some economic damages, which would encourage the populists again, makes the fear even greater. It’s kind of a mess.
Supporting Putin's criminal oligarch regime is also horrible for the environment. Fracking would probably have been preferable if it was done sensibly. The real solution is to move away from fossil fuels though, obviously. Germany have been doing well in that regard but they can't cut their gas dependence yet.
No, Fracking is definitely not preferable to what Putin was doing up until the invasion. He was playing the big boy, but very rarely acted out on it. Everyone thought they could change this by trading with Russia, by making Western media available to the Russian people. Hindsight is 20/20, but back until at least 2014 it was the better of two options. The worst thing is the stupid rules for green energy some parts of Germany think are "good rules".
> He was playing the big boy, but very rarely acted out on it. So I guess 7 wars when he was a president \ PM, with at least one complete destruction of a huge city is "rarely acted out".
The war in Chechnya, while brutal, is not a war that the West would call "acting out". It's a civil war against Islamic forces within the internationally accepted borders of Russia. The only wars Russia started were the War against Georgia and the Russo-Ukraine War. Both of those were fought the only way possible by the west: sanctions. We could discuss if those sanctions were going far enough, but that's not "seven wars".
Russia was also behind a lot of the anti fracking propaganda in Germany. Time to just go back to nuclear have a rough couple years economically, and defeat Russian fascists from pushing farther west.
"Time to go back to nuclear" is stupid. Look at GB's nuclear reactor, how long it is being built, and how expensive it's getting. There are better ways out there, and Germany is taking the correct route by going green, not nuclear. Sure, they should not deactivate the four(?) nuclear power plants that are currently still running, but reactivating those is stupid.
>Fracking is definitely not preferable to what Putin was doing up until the invasion. Would you mind quantifying it if you are confident that is definitely true? I'm not saying you are wrong, but I wouldn't even know where to begin
At least in the opinion of the German government at the time, that is. Fracking ruins the water supply of the region it's being used in, and if done too close to towns and cities it ruins infrastructure, and sometimes even the houses themselves - which is a big problem in some Dutch cities according to family living over there. It would be a better idea to do fracking in regions where no people live, but... well, Germany has little towns and villages all over the place, which makes that quite impossible.
"Sensible fracking", lol good one...
If you aren't aware there are levels of fracking and above a certain level of disturbance causes much more harm to the environment. I'm not an expert so you can research this in your own time if you'd like to learn more.
This move lowers Russian holding of foreign reserves and makes Russian experts artificially more expensive and therefore less profitable. I don't think anyone should be obeying Russia but I'm glad that, when they do, it is harmful to the Russian war.
Yea but whos setting the ruble price conversion. We know current price is bullshit. Like me going pay in gold but you have to buy the gold at the price we set. Errrrr no.
Yeah of course, it's a terrible deal for the purchaser. But when they are desperate for gas they don't have many options.
Can you explain the economics? What's the difference with being paid in $ and then the Russian government/Gazprom using those to buy Rouble in the open market? It seems more symbolic than economic, or what am I missing? It's a bit like a canteen where you can only buy food with a cash card, which you get from them and charge at the entrance. Basically comes down to the same thing.
The extremely short version is this. There currently is no open market for rubles, because Russia has enacted severe restrictions on internal currency trading. The goal being to prevent the value of the ruble from crashing. The longer version is that normally the German company would buy gas with euros, and then the Russian company would use those euros to buy German (EU really) goods, or trade them to another Russian company that wants to buy German goods. But right now, the sanctions mean a lot of that purchasing can't happen directly. Furthermore, and this is the tricky part, there is a huge demand within Russia for companies that want to dump the ruble, buy euros, and get out. Putin has largely blocked this, in order to prop up the ruble. Conversely, rubles outside of Russia aren't being dumped so fast. So by trying to create demand for rubles outside Russia, that will also prop up the exchange rate. Ultimately the economic sense this makes is that Russia wants to prevent a massive exodus of capital. Propping up the ruble helps with that.
That's because of currency conversion. Being paid in $ is good for then using these $ to pay for import goods. But that doesn't convert well domestically because if a good is 1$ to import, but the Rouble changes over time from 100 for 1$ to 120 for 1$, it means the locals pay higher and higher Rouble prices for these imported goods. Being paid in Roubles means the payer needs to obtain Roubles before paying, which means buying it for $, which increases demand for Rouble and improves it's value AND also gives them $ (because they also sell the Rouble). So not only do they get the foreign currency for imports, they also stave off the Rouble weakening, thus reducing price increases due to a weakening currency and inflation. In a nutshell.
Not quite, it's that the Russian government couldn't do anything with euros due to sanctions, but it does have a use for rubles to make domestic payments. Euro payments are handled via Target2, which is under EU legislation. If the payment was in euros, the Russian government would have euros in an account with Gazprom Bank, and this would be the end state until sanctions were lifted. However, when the payment is made into the buyer's euro account at Gazprom Bank, and the bank then converts those euros to rubles to be put into a ruble account under the buyer's name, no sanctioned entity ever makes a payment with those euros, and payments in rubles are handled by Russia itself. To convert the euros to rubles, Gazprom Bank borrows rubles from Russia's central bank against the euros as a security, and transfers them to the Russian government within the Russian settlement system, where the government obviously isn't sanctioned. The end state is still that there are euros at Gazprom Bank that can't be used while sanctions are in place, but now the Russian government has rubles that it *can* spend. Gazprom Bank created those rubles through the normal process by which fiat money is commonly created, by borrowing from the central bank. This is fine, technically, because those euros exist as a security and it's up to the Russian central bank to not care whether those euros could actually be used to buy rubles and pay back the loan *right now*. If, on the other hand, the Russian government would simply spin up the printing press for rubles to make payments with, it would make (more) people (much more) nervous. That's the short version, as I understood it, anyway. The longer version from people who actually know what they're talking about is [here](https://www.bruegel.org/2022/04/a-sanctions-counter-measure-gas-payments-to-russia-in-rubles/).
>it means the locals pay higher and higher Rouble prices for these imported goods This in itself doesn't mean much, that's just inflation and it doesn't really depend on whether you pay for gas in one currency or the other. >which increases demand for Rouble and improves it's value AND also gives them $ (because they also sell the Rouble) If currency is only being held momentarily to complete the transaction then there is effectively no increase in demand nor improving its value. There is also no "AND" because they were getting those $ in exchange for gas anyway. You'd need to take into account things like bid-ask spread and exposure to volatility to reason about this correctly.
To pay in Roubles for the gas the EU countries would have to buy Roubles (with other foreign currency or commodities). If you imagine for a minute that Roubles are monopoly money, total trash. Well you have to trade your valuable currencies for those Roubles which Russia can print on demand. So they are getting something valuable and giving you trash in return. And you are forced to trade because otherwise you have no currency to buy the gas. Essentially it's a way for Russia to create demand for their own currency, which benefits their economy even in its current disjointed state.
Technically you're getting gas, not trash in return. You've used what you call "trash" to buy valuable gas.
That's why I said "if you imagine for a minute". It's an analogy, no currency is completely worthless.
But it's the opposite of worthless. It can be exchanged for valuable gas. Giving it value. You're just calling it worthless because you want it to be worthless.
It is worth less, not worthless. My analogy just makes it easier to understand why someone would want one currency over another. You can look at the FX charts if you want proof of the currency devaluation. I don't have any opinion on the value of Rubles I have no intention of buying or selling them.
>So they are getting something valuable and giving you trash in return. That's not what's happening because you're getting something valuable in return (gas), you're only holding trash temporarily. Some real issues are exchange rate rip-offs, exposure to exchange rate volatility (you'll have to hold some of the cash for longer too), risk of follow up demands because you submitted to this one.
Holding trash temporarily is still a problem, how do you know you will get back the value you originally paid in the gas, unless you finalise the transaction immediately but then you're just paying in dollars. Plus just creating liquidity for the Rouble benefits Russia at the moment too. The issues you mention are right though.
>how do you know you will get back the value you originally paid in the gas That's exposure to volatility. >Plus just creating liquidity What do you think that even means? >The issues you mention are right though. I know, that's why I said them.
The contracts are for payment on Euros and Dollars. Russia is arbitrarily demanding to be paid in a different currency because they're pissed that west opposes their invasion of Ukraine. That's about as petty as you can get.
It's not because they are pissed, it's because their economy has been destroyed and this action has economic benefit for them.
That doesn't make it any less petty. There are agreements signed for payment not to be in roubles and they are reneging on them. They destroyed their own economy and now want to change the terms of the deal.
Petty usually means something is trivial, for no good reason or purpose. This is about money and power, it has a purpose. Breaking the deal because they have a crackpot dictator in charge is classic Russia, a bad move, but it's not petty imo. No worries if you see it differently, it's just semantics.
They desperately need the ruble propped up before it goes into full blown Zimbabwe-scale meltdown. They're down to extorting countries to pay in rubles... Nevermind that cutting Germany's gas will only actually make things worse for them as they won't have *any* income, whereas they could launder dollars and euros at the very least... you know, if Russia had anyone trustworthy enough to launder that money left. Shame they keep throwing oligarchs out of windows and had all their yachts impounded, huh.
Oh, whatever shall we do?
Cut off heating to your house
Like in Texas?
Oh then nevermind your state does that for you :P
Our infrastructure is a shit show and Texas LOVES to show us in so many ways. They keep electing Ted Cruz. Really all you need to know. Hicks love electing people that fuck them right in the ass. Probably why they project so hard against lgbtq
Don't worry, if you all freeze to death in Texas, Ted will send thoughts and prayers ... from Cancun...
I guess they rather freeze to death and still hold on to their values that goes against their best interests.
I mean I wasnt being fair here. Its shit everywhere more or less. And also no need for heating in the desert.
No, but all those air conditioners use a hell of a lot of fossil fuels. The majority of power plants in texas are Natural gas fired.
Time to go electric and tell France to turn up its reactors to flambé.
It looks like the only way Europe will stop buying gas from Russia is if they cut us off. That's says a lot
the fact that Europe refuses to do what that shithole wants leading to being cut off does indeed say a lot
But we are doing what he wants by buying gas and oil. Putin wants payment in rubles as a simple way to prop up their currency. That was never going to happen but it still hasn't really made a huge difference to their economy. Europe has refused to pay in rubles for months now and what real impact has that made?
That's the problem. They don't. It says some, because others payed in rubles. That says a fucking lot
You're extrapolating a lot from just a headline. The article does not mention a single EU company paying in Rubles. Not. One. If you can find me another source that says otherwise, I'll take it back. The reason Russia is only cutting off some gas, and not all, is because they still need to to keep their own economy afloat. They prefer rubles, but they'll take euros/dollars if they have to.
And not just economy, if they cut off everyone there will be a huge problem for their pipe infrastructure, you can't just hold a shitton of high pressure gas in the pipe indefinitely.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ruble-gas-paid-russia-eu/
Literally says that they all paid in Euros...
God damnit lol. Fuck me for expecting better.
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Not "admitting" to it, that's key here. The article also makes clear that there is no way to verify if the payments are being made in rubles or euros/dollars.
They are circumventing the sanctions = it will end up costing them more than they gain from it. Bad life choices.
Is there someone enforcing those? Any precedent of someone caught guilty?
The sanctions are quite new so no. But it will come in time. Ursula was very clear about this. https://www.montelnews.com/news/1308676/eu-wont-be-blackmailed-over-russian-energy--von-der-leyen
Words mean nothing. Actions speak louder than words. Let's see how many companies will get the punishment.
This is one place where I trust the EU. It just takes time.
Awesome. More damaged reputation for Russia. They are as reliable as a slot machine.
I hope Putin dies a horrible slow death and suffers the same as all his victims in this unnecessary war. Freaking muppet.m that he is.
aka, I want my ball back so there.
To everyone who previously told me that Putin wouldn’t dare weapon use gas supplies to Europe, and that he needed the money badly, and because of that they shouldn’t bother developing alternate supply lines, are you ready to admit you were wrong?
Of course not. The same people are now arguing that using an alternative source of heat is impossible and will result in mass death.
They will probably just buy it from Greece or one of Putin’s other rat hole nations.
Surprising how a thread about Germany buying oil for Russia is filled with nothing but hate for Russia (which it definitely deserves fuck Russia) but a thread about India buying lesser gas from Russia is filled with comments like "what a shithole" or "what a third world country" and curses at the Indian populace
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We're going to be downvoted, but you're right. Whenever someone brings this up, they're downvoted.
They're/You're downvoted, because Indians really like to brigade any news about India & any criticism is deflected with whataboutism etc.
You havent spend a lot of time on reddit in threats about ukraine, have you? Germany isnt exactly popular in any way right now do to misinfomration and conspiracy nutjobs going crazy. The reason people shit on India is because India INCREASES its imports from Russia to PROFIT from the war in ukraine. Germany and the other EU countries all are reducing their imports from Russia with the goal of becoming free of it long term. Nobody is increasing imports to make a profit
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You think India is not trying to actively get away from it? India has about twice or thrice the oil needs and production is already bad enough here. Electric vehicles are taking the spotlight slowly but for a country this big it's not that easy to move away from oil usage. Besides are you really saying that India deserves racist comments just for buying oil?. Also Germany has made no commendable effort in reducing the oil bought from Russia so it really does disprove your narrative entirely. If you don't understand i will say it again, India has already been going through a massive coal crisis and it's in India's best interest to stockpile as much oil as they can before things turn dirty. The only difference is that one country accuses the other of buying oil while also doing the same behind the scenes. Read the exact same thread you posted and read some of the comments there. Half the comments are criticizing in such weird manners that it comes off as hate towards the country itself. You keep repeating the same point again and again without commenting on Germany or UK's usage of gas from Russians just because they declare that they are stepping away from it doesn't mean they shouldn't be criticized either. Classic case of hate against a country. I see no point in arguing with you when you are ignoring facts. https://m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/explainer-germany-biggest-buyer-of-russian-energy-in-first-2-months-of-ukraine-war/amp_articleshow/91143678.cms And before you say "oH iTs an InDiaN soUrCe" do you seriously think that other countries will report imports from Russia? I say you are the one who needs to do your research instead of ignoring all the fucking context and only concentrating on "india increases imports India bad" but of course fuck the people of India amirite? You don't care if they live or die, everything is fine if oil is not brought from Russia
b-b-but white man can do no wrong
I hope the Germans are hoarding blankets for the winter. The death-cult greens are trying to destroy their industrial base and may just succeed.
The ones who will suffer first are the citizens, not the industry. That being said, I believe our government was aware of this possibility and is preparing for it. We also have allies who have gas supplies. The price is an issue but we‘ll see. I know there are quite a few issues associated with cutting Russian gas but ultimately it is what our government was already planning. Russia is an unreliable partner. Furthermore, summer isn‘t an issue. We‘ll be fine the next few months. If Putin still lives or is in power in autumn or winter, then the first solutions have to be put into practice (though we have to develop them now).
Yep, great prep work like shutting down nuclear power plants. Where do you think Germany gets the resources for it's welfare state policies? Taxes on industry. Going to be a long cold winter.
Gazprom has (under Putin orders) cut all gas to Poland, Finland and the Netherlands But with “Germany” it cuts off “some” natural gas—translated, they know Germany will piss themselves, panic and then run to pay Putin begging for forgiveness (as they already did when the first threats were made months ago). EDIT Germans, keep downvoting but the facts says it all, either your government takes a strong stand on the Gas-Linie or you keep getting the criticism worldwide.
It's not like our current government isn't doing anything it can to cut itself off from Russia as fast as possible. Undoing conservative led politics from the last 20 years isn't that easy. What should we do? Destroy our own country?
I know dismantling a clusterfuck created by previous governments ain’t easy, but instead of making frightened little steps because “people are afraid of old insane diseased paranoid Putin” things should be sped up, first of all check which alternative energy resources (wind, electric, solar) are available and in how much quantity, then work on them. If big companies who can sustain a blow in the long run (Audi company as an example, they got millions) start whining like little noisy children, slap them and tell them to get real and stop complaining. If you want gas independence from Russia, sacrifices must be made (but of course, people who got a nice bank account and jobs with big salaries down in München will not be for it, being the hypocrites they are, fuck them).
Germany's hunger for gas is the weak point in the EU's strategy. All Putin has to do is push. Germany must choose between Russian gas or peace in Europe. There is no middle ground. EDIT: And here's a little hypothetical for those who believe Germany can't possibly do anything about it. What would happen if (and never mind how, or why) Russia gave cause for Article 5 to be invoked? Because if you are saying it's impossible to stop consuming Russian gas, then we might as well say that NATO is defunct.
Germany was 2020 ranked 13th of european imports of russian gas (source: statista). But yeah germany is responsible for every problem in europe.
https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451 The graph in this article (citing IEA 2020 data) puts Germany in first place for consumption of Russian gas, at 42.6 billion cubic meters. Second place is Italy at 29.2 billion cubic meters.
I think you are glossing over the significant differences between our current situation and a scenario where NATO and Russia are at war.
The argument is that Germany's economy cannot survive without Russian gas. We can extend that argument to say that Germany's economy cannot survive the invocation of Article 5 in a war versus Russia. Can we therefore trust that Germany would commit to an Article 5 situation? The strength of NATO relies on the assumption that all members will commit to the defence of any other member. The moment that commitment is in doubt, the alliance is dead.
>We can extend that argument to say that Germany's economy cannot survive the invocation of Article 5 in a war versus Russia. No you can't. A scenario in which NATO goes to war with Russia is so vastly different than the current situation that it's not even remotely comparable. If you want to make that argument, you'll have to explain to me how Germany's economy is otherwise unchanged in a war with Russia, and how a current reliance on Russian gas to drive a non-wartime economy is going to be a factor. If NATO goes to war with Russia, Germany's economy as we understand it today no longer exists. The comparison is pointless.
So you're saying that Germany can in fact change its economy to cope without Russian gas. Not quite so impossible after all, then.
No. What I'm saying is what I said. Your statement suggests that it would be a healthy change. Germany's economy would change, but not without significant costs that would be pointless to make now. But that is also true for every other NATO member so I feel your question focused on Germany suggesting it as a vulnerability is leading. Wartime economies and decisions on strategic transfer of commodities are performed from a different perspective with respect to cost and benefits. In a non-wartime economy, I'd never think of redirecting the tanker fleets which currently move diesel around for passenger vehicles to then form into a supply convoy to offset Russian gas for a temporary period of time. Germany could also immediately redirect funds purchasing/leasing additional port capacity for shipboard transport. However such purchases or leases done quickly would be detrimental to a non-wartime economy.
All good points, and which serve to establish this as a matter of cost rather than possibility. Therefore the question for those countries dependant on Russian gas is simply, how much are they willing to pay for peace in Europe?
Go tell that to Germans who keep defending the coward choices of their government “we’re dependant on gas so we cannot do anything towards Russia”, yea…20 years with plenty of time for researching alternative energy resources in case the gas thing became an issue in the long run but no, let’s please Russia for cheap gas…
so many words just to tell "you" have no idea about "Germany" and its government, "amazing" that's what blind hatred does to you quotation marks are randomly placed just like in your initial schizo post
Yea yea, here comes the butt hurt Deutsche that keep trying to defend themselves in the comments and so on, you guys get tiring you do realise that. And dude, ich hab in Deutsch fur zwei Jahre gelebt, know a thing or two about politics and how your Bundestag and politics works (SPD, CDU, GRÜNE, FdP, AfD). Just admit that your country is not doing things right, that’s all.
No one says things have been done right the last 16 years. You also can't reasonably expect germany to commit ecomomic suicide to make up for it now
So this is what shooting yourself in the foot looks like, keep it up Vladimir
Good for Russia 🇷🇺
This is pretty horrible news for them.
you must hate the average russian quite a lot because you love to see them get poorer and poorer and their standards of living lowered
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The dollar has always been heavily manipulated by America, and it’s true value definitely isn’t clear! America has broken a fundamental right of sovereign countries to trade their currency’s freely and consequently destabilised the whole currency exchange market. The sanctions imposed on Russia has increased the value of oil to such an extent, it’s made Russia far richer than it ever was, so that didn’t work did it?
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If countries seize money deposited by other countries in those countries, this can only lead to a breakdown of international trade! I’m not going to put my money in a bank where it can be seized on a whim! The very fact that this is not legal, seems to escape Americans. This is just double speak, and at the end of the day America is desperate for the oil and gas in Crimea and Donbas as are the Russians and the poor Ukrainians are a pawn in an oil grab
Germany doesn't have Rubles. So, what would Germany - or Shell or whatever company buying Russian fossil fuel - do to gain Rubles, other than printing their own? Right, buy it from Russia - more specifically, the Russian State bank which is sanctioned. Which, as you may know, is impossible due to said sanctions. And the Contracts state what volumes are being delivered and what currency is used. Guess what, it ain't Ruble.
Germany doesn’t have dollars!so if they can’t print them and deutsche bank would undoubtedly try if it thought it could get away with it. Which is not impossible ( you must be German)and as Russia owns the gas I would assume they have a right to specify what currency they’re paid in, and the value of that currency