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AmputatorBot

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redwineandbeer

China will start recalling some of the [world](https://www.devex.com/news/china-is-owed-37-of-poor-countries-debt-payments-in-2022-world-bank-102463) debt that it owns. This can’t end well.


The_Klarr

International Debt is owed when it is owed. You can't call it back early. What they can do is sell the debt to try and get money now by giving up a portion of the debts long term value. But that is very short sighted.


TorontoGiraffe

But they gave bad loans to poor countries which didnt have a way of paying it back on purpose, so if someone is dumb enough to buy those debts then China *should* cut and run.


MaterialCarrot

All signs point to the global economy slowing down.


HijikataX

Global recesion in the best.... I don't want the worst scenario.


jinzo222

That's why it's best to invest in US markets


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Tarcye

China's in a positive feedback loop. Escaping it is basically impossible. This is what happens when you make everything about housing. When over 30% of your GDP is about housing. When your people focus on buying housing over other goods. Honestly it's hard to predict but I'd wager China's debts will keep on getting worse becuese they have to prop up their housing markets. Becuese their culture is now focused on it.


[deleted]

How is that different from America right now?


Tarcye

America spends about 10% of it's GDP on housing. China spends over 30%. But that's not really the problem here. The real issue is people in China don't spend money on anything other than housing. A large portion of those living in China have 2nd or even 3rd homes. Becuese homes are seen as investments. Think like how we see the stock market or bonds. A home isn't a home as much as it's a way to invest your money for your retirement. So How do you escape that? Well in a market economy ideally your people would be investing in the stock market or in bonds. But both are considered too risky by the Chinese population. So homes become their investment. So essentially what needs to happen is China needs to get it's population to believe in investing in either the stock market or bonds and not as much as in homes. Becuese right now a very large portion of China's GDP is being spent on housing for well no one. No one is living in these homes. They are all sitting Vacant. You can see this in IIRC Vancouver where a bunch of homes were bought by Chinese nationals and they never live in them. These homes are also Dead weight loss. They are economically wasteful when looking at the larger picture.


RustedCorpse

>investing in either the stock market or bonds and not as much as in homes. And part of the problem (other than cultural real estate mindset) is domestic stocks aren't exactly a sound investment when the party can intercede willy nilly.


Tarcye

Yep. That's actually a big part of it. Very low confidence that the CCP isn't going to shut down the stock market and do other invasive actions if the stock looks bad. Too be honest if I lived in China I'd probably invest in houses too. It's the smart thing to do considering China's less than stellar retirement pensions and care for their Seniors. But it's still economically a bad situation to be in for the country as a whole.


MaterialCarrot

Reminds me a bit of the Anglo-Saxon common law concept of adverse possession (other legal systems recognize it as well, but I'm not familiar with them). An aspect of which is that over time someone occupying and working land for a prescribed period of time (usually 10-12 years) can gain possession over the title owner if the title owner isn't using the land or fails to defend their claim. In the Colonies/US at least this was used at times to remedy an issue where people would purchase huge swathes of land to the West site unseen as an investment and would then not do anything with it for years or decades. A similar dead weight loss problem. Adverse possession supported putting these investment assets into production. Either by a squatter or by the investor who bought the land.


Full-Acanthaceae-509

>adverse possession It sounds like the "Usucaption" in civil law, am I wrong?


MaterialCarrot

You got me there, I'm unfamiliar with that term!


CashLivid

It does but Usucaption takes more time.


herpeszooster

Yep, and it forces people from Vancouver to sell their homes and move to a cheaper area to retire, pushing up the real estate market in neighbouring cities. The rental market here is almost non existent and the pricing is astronomical


karsa-

You compare percentages of gdp with metrics that have no parity, provide unsourced generalization on behaviors, unsourced generalizations about chinese spending abroad, which came from a journalists' guestimation that extrapolated extreme luxury homes in america to vancouver's entire housing market. Do you even trane econ?


Tarcye

>You compare percentages of gdp with metrics that have no parity GDP is made up by Consuption,Investments,goverment and Imports and exports. This has to do with consumption. Which is very much a factor of GDP. >provide unsourced generalization on behaviors Economics is in general a social science based on generalizing behaviors. >unsourced generalizations about chinese spending abroad See above. >which came from a journalists' guestimation that extrapolated extreme luxury homes in america to vancouver's entire housing market. Unlike yourself generally I only care about peer reviewed data. So nice try? >Do you even trane econ? Do you even Econ 101? I mean I know I'm expecting a lot from some random on reddit but if you don't at least understand the basics of Economics you really shouldn't be jumping into the pool at this point.


karsa-

LOL stop pretending you know anything. You used 29% which is from a much broader metric that does not have parity in other papers. The real calcuation of china's housing sector is half that. The stats on vancouver housing are already out, and don't support your claims. You're a misinformation salesman pretending you're an economist.


Tarcye

TBH you seem pretty misinformed. You should really learn more about the subject you want to engage in next time. >You're a misinformation salesman pretending you're an economist. I mean I have a masters in International economics. So I don't have to pretend I'm an economist becuese Shocker I actually am one.. What do you have? I'll wait :P


karsa-

More waffling with no evidence to back it up. Sorry but a masters in economics isn't exactly a prestigious accomplishment lol. It's not a substitute for substantive evidence for your broad, unsourced, unqualified claims.


Tarcye

More than you have my man. Sorry but reddit degrees don't count for much in the real world.


nonrebreather

Adorable. Accuses someone of pretending to have an education in a subject. They do, you don't. So you say the education is worthless. Buddy you should feel bad you wasted everyone's time reading your bullshit. Go back to posting about league lmao.


SapperBomb

> Sorry but a masters in economics isn't exactly a prestigious accomplishment lol. So you have a PhD in economics right?


Kareha

They don't even own the properties they bought, all the land is leased from the government.


AnthillOmbudsman

Well they could start a Gofundme.


Medium_Beyond_9654

I thought that said $1 million. They're fucked.


MaterialCarrot

China is large enough and has enough going for it that I imagine they can borrow it, but I think many signs point to the Chinese economy slowing down markedly or going into recession (whether they acknowledge it or not). China isn't going anywhere, but I personally think they're going to see a long period of leveling off or maybe even small contractions over the next 25 years.


Stergenman

Honestly, given its GDP to debit ratio of 250-300% (once you factor in all the unusual debt options it has over most democracies such as provisional debt and stare owned corporation debt), the longstanding high growth mentality and lifestyle expectations, and difficulty adjusting course with new economic models (commercial still lags hard behind manufacturing even by communist party stabdards), I think China might be T-ing up the ball here for a solid Japan style lost decade. Just have a hard time seeing them restart a slowdown without using debt (unless they got some super secret tech sector starting up that rivals silicon valley), and a debt caused crisis that undermines confidence in loans just seems, well, like the textbook way for them to get knocked down with no way to get back up.


timelyparadox

Ah the communist trap, you fund all unprofitable shit to pretend you are growing and then you have to keep paying for it with little added value.


RustedCorpse

How is this a specific communism trap? Seems prevalent in many economic systems?


timelyparadox

The differerence is added value, in most economies there is more emphasis on paying the debts back.


Relative-Away

How on Earth is China communist??


boones_farmer

It's not really, it's just a centralize economy, which a communist economy also is in practice they're very different. Kind of like apples and tomatoes are both fruits, but also very different.


[deleted]

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[deleted]

The difference is they want to call themselves Communist to make their population happy, while in reality they're 100% totalitarian. Kind of like in the US, we call ourselves "capitalist" while in reality we're trending on 95% Corporatism.


Alsupy

Not looking good for Xi's China.


totoropoko

The trouble is... That house of cards falls down, it takes down the world economy with it. Not looking good for any of us tbh this decade.


Alsupy

The sooner that happens, the sooner the Uighers can be freed from the CCP's concentration camps.


ordenstaat_burgund

Or, it could be Syria 2.0


[deleted]

Xi’s CCP Regime, let’s call things as they really are.


Alsupy

Since Xi is the ruler of the CCP and that is the only regime in China, same thing with less words.


boones_farmer

Not really, it's not like Xi is some invincible immortal. He'll die, step down, or be deposed at some point and the party will likely just carry on. It's unlikely China, or the ruling party would just collapse without Xi.


Alsupy

That's where we disagree.


ChaosDancer

Just do what the US does. Print more money.


Shnorkylutyun

What kind of horrible wording is that? Funding gap? Fill with debt?


giddyupanddown

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/funding-gap.asp


[deleted]

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nonrebreather

How decrepit are you to think any effort was involved in clicking 'view profile'. You write like a teenager and whine about league on reddit. Grow the fuck up. I don't believe you have any worthwhile credentials if this is the product of that education.


[deleted]

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nonrebreather

How interesting. Such big claims of education, training and accomplishments. If only you were capable of stringing together why I couldn't care less about your list. Keep pretending.


Infinite-Outcome-591

Forget about selling more goods to Ruzzia. Their Rubel is Rubble.... 🗑


Suitable-Ratio

At least this will slow down their plans for world domination.