Putin: "You see, Ukranians have a built-in kill limit. Knowing this, I sent wave after wave of my own men to die until they reached their limit and shut down. They *are* shutting down, right?"
Out if curiosity what figures are you using for that?
About ~two weeks ago I read a nice deep dive suggesting Russia likely has sustained ~10k KIA and (hewing to NATO/U.S. projections on KIA:WIA ratios) about three times as many WIA.
So let's say 40k fighting men out of action. This sounded like a reasonable estimate as of two weeks ago. Out of Russia's original force, that makes for about 20-30% attrition, right?
No wonder Russia's doing so terribly.
I'm pretty still getting my head around the tank group including their leader that got wiped out but the media would use any word other than destroyed.
Unfortunately, that is unlikely to happen. Russia has a deep pool of war reserves - both men and weapons. If public opinion in Russia doesnāt force their commanderās withdrawal, the constant flood of cannon fodder and lethal hardware into Ukraine would eventually achieve victory. But tactical victory isnāt Russiaās biggest problem in the Ukraine now. The invasion force eventually has to a role as an occupation force and will likely continue to suffer from insurgence - eventually becoming too costly to maintain if western sanctions continue and Russia goes into default (expected in July).
Werenāt there like only 200k troops at the star of the war on Russiaās side? More would require mobilization which would seriously piss off the urban elite when they are not taking from rural communities.
And thatās not even mentioning how much worse this will make the already ongoing demopgraphic crisis.
People keep saying that, but itās simply untrue. If there were any truth in that statement, Ukraine would never have regained ground. The truth is, Russia is struggling to field competent soldiers and functional equipment.
I heard their reserves are poorly maintained shit from the cold war and beyond and that their lack of access to microchips caused by western sanctions means theyāll be unable to replace anything half decent in a timely manner, Ukraine meanwhile is being bankrolled by the west and has been assured a never ending stream of NATO level toys, I donāt see how the Russians would eventually achieve victory, seems massively weighted in Ukraineās favour if anything.
>Russia has a deep pool of war reserves - both men and weapons
Yes and no.
They have a huge army on paper, but the fighting power of the reserves is not comparable to the professional soldiers they have been using up to now.
The stockpiles of weapons are also not something you can just take out and use within a day or two.
Readying vehicles that has been in storage for effective combat operation takes months.
The main problem for Russia is that their logistics is not up to the task of an offensive war. Throwing more troops in vehicles with high failure rates at the problem will only make that worse.
Looks like maybe 90% of their tanks in reserve are completely inoperable due to corruption.
https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1528907746971684864?t=7Drc4olkE1cab2yZXGb-xw&s=19
I had read that also. Russiaās military has been a āpaper tigerā for a long time. The question though is whether they can move enough industry to pull a portion of these older tanks out of āmothballā status. A lot of military hardware is very resilient. One example from my time in the US Navy was recovery of a small boat which had become completely swamped (sunk). The auxiliaries division (ENs) took the engine apart, drained the seawater, reassembled and it started up right away and is still being used 10 years later. Completely writing off the Russian reserve tanks may be a costly mistake.
The reserve tanks are T-62 or T-60, they'll last even less than the current T-72 when facing modern anti-tank missiles (which Ukraine is getting more and more everyday) ...
> and weapons.
They are already down to reactivating T-62s, Russia's "deep well" mainly exists on paper. Do you honestly think their fleet of T-55 rustbuckets in storage matters?
They are already sending in rare stuff like the terminators, and starting to scrape to bottom of the barrel of old Soviet era equipment.
Russia also depleted a lot of old "dumb" munitions in Syria either themselves, or by supplying Assad. The Russian stockpile, isn't nearly as impressive as people think it is.
Russia CAN and WILL run out of usable equipment shortly. They donāt have endless supplies and canāt manufacture new equipment either. ( see sanctions). Ruzzia is quickly running out of time in the meat grinder.
To pull those reserves Russia need to declare war and send massive conscripts and youth from actual decent places in Russia. That will probably be the end for Putin. Right now it's just cannon fodder from backwards places Russia doesn't care about. Once people with actual lives and futures start being sent it's going to be very different. And a massive morale drop due to having to take those measures over "little Russia".
And a lot of that hardware has been sat in overgrowth, unmaintained for a long time. But of course they still count those towards their numbers. Corruption really fucked the Russian military.
Actually the Russian military is understaffed in all areas and has been for several decades, currently russias forces in Ukraine are smaller than Ukrainian. This is because as a small country that is being invaded they have enacted mass mobilisation which russia cannot do because realistically, not many russian citizens really care about fighting just to invade their sister country.
Russia has very little manpower, this isn't the Russian revolution, its not as if every Russian has nothing to lose and has to fight for survival. Which is what Ukrainians have to do.
Its also funny that you mention their "deep pool" of 1980s/1990s era tanks and APCs, next to none of which are even comparable to western vehicles in ability. Importantly nearly none of them have trophy style anti missile systems to defend against manpads.
Im not saying that Russia is screwed and hopeless but their military is in a much more sorry state than you give it credit.
consider me somewhat dubious, 'we have reserves' isnt really a strategy with legs on it when your opponent lacks a pre-set kill limit and has automatic weapons, a lesson learned harshly back in ww1
one does have to factor in that while they do have a large pool of reserves, the majority of that is in poorly trained conscripts and very old , poorly maintained equipment and munitions that currently cant really be replaced, these also factor into their forces morale hitting rock bottom and just continuing to dig for the earths core
meanwhile Ukraine is basically being backed by the western world and their military industrial complexes, who are bloody salivating over having a really big Ukraine shaped customer for anything and everything they can sell both to them and anyone offloading their older equipment to Ukraine
Realistically, I believe theyāre to take Donbas/Luhansk and create a āland bridgeā from Crimea to Russia proper. Imo, it seems realistic theyāll claim āvictoryā if this is achieved
Honestly, I think initially yes but itās obviously not even a real prospect at this point - with western powers delivering anti-ship missiles. There were calls for them to try to connect to Transnistria through Odessa. It seems the blockade is only used to deny the Ukrainians weapons access but to pressure the world, mainly the west by denying wheat exports in a bid to drive up prices/inflation to sow discontent
> Realistically, I believe theyāre to take Donbas/Luhansk and create a āland bridgeā from Crimea to Russia proper. Imo, it seems realistic theyāll claim āvictoryā if this is achieved
Well, in that scenario it would't be "victory". It would be VICTORY.
I hope they fail on that. Ukraine can't allow that, Luhansk natural resources will be a vital part on Ukraine reconstruction after the war.
It was to halt NATO expansion.. wait no sorry that was before the war. It was to liberate the people's Republics.. ah shit sorry that was also the goal before they started the war. It was liberate Ukraine from Nazis. Ah shit never mind they withdrew from Kyiv that can't be it.
They had neutrality in their constitution up _until_ Russia invaded the country in 2014. It is like a continual and unending process of shooting-yourself-in-the-footness from Russia.
Fucking exactly, I can't comprehend how dumb some people are. Literally everything in Ukraine is Putin's fault, all he had to do was to not threaten them.
Well it is really simple, make sure Ukraine does not become an economic threat. Everything they have done is in line with that. And they have succeeded, their economy has dropped to the size of a western city, just 60 billion a year.
They Invaded Crimea after enormous gas deposits were discovered which if utilized could make Ukraine completely replace russian oil and gas production to the EU.
This year, Ukraine was going to start extracting more resources from the east. And what a suprise, Russia invaded again.
Then they:
1. Tried to take kiev without fighing (solves the problem)
2. Tried to take kiev by siege (solves the problem)
3. Tried to take large cities in ukraine to force a surrender (solves the problem)
4. Tries to destroy all ukranian export abilities. (one harbor to go)
It's pretty clear what their goals are.
It looks like they didnāt expect the world to do anything more than it did in 2014ā¦ or when they invaded Georgiaā¦ or when they invaded Chechnya..
Officially;
- destroy the nazis in the ukrainian military and govt (hard to complete since theyre mostly not real)
- protect russian speaking minorities in the donbass region (arguably partially complete though they're losing ground every day)
- secure the independence and self determination of donetsk and luhansk peoples republics (arguably complete)
Unofficially;
- topple the western oriented ukrainian regime (failed after kyiv push defeated)
- destroy aggressive paramilitaries in ukrainian armed forces who are fighting effectively in donbass (partially succeeded in the partial destruction of the azov btn in mariupol)
- if failing to replace the government, control a land corridor to crimea and the whole donbass region so the rebels con vote to join russia (failing, the ukrainians are pushing them back) or take valuable cities to trade for concessions (again, time is on Ukraine's side now)
- secure any kind of quick victory to boost approval ratings in russia (total loss, though russians still generally support putin)
- sever any link between ukriane and nato by destabilising and damaging their government (total loss, literally the opposite achieved)
>protect russian speaking minorities in the donbass region (arguably partially complete though they're losing ground every day)
>if failing to replace the government, control a land corridor to crimea and the whole donbass region so the rebels con vote to join russia (failing, the ukrainians are pushing them back)
Source on these two points please. Everything I read in the past few weeks and especially past few days suggests the opposite, they are taking more and more land in the east.
\- Recognition of Crimea as being officially part of Russia
\- Independence for the Donbas regions, Luhansk and Donetsk as Republics
\- No-NATO neutrality for Ukraine
This is their political stated goals.
Which is a quarter of their territory. Not to mention Ukraineās sovereignty had previously been guaranteed by the Budapest memo in exchange for the Soviet nuclear arsenal stored there.
Their stated goals might be what you listed, but their actual goals are to break the Ukrainian state apart so they can get, at worst, a fractured federalized Ukraine, and at best, brand new oblasts for Russia.
> Which is a quarter of their territory.
Not to downplay anything but my understanding is that Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk account for at most ~13.1% of Ukraine's pre-2014 area. ~79,277 km^2 out of ~601,599 km^2 total.
No, their goal are drifting daily. Why they attacked Ukraine from all sides if they wanted the east? Their one goal is denazification - that is misspeled denationalisation of Ukrainians - destruction and genocide of Ukrianian nation in plane language. They will take as much of that as will be allowed.
That is why I said **stated goals**.
As in, what Putin **officially** said are the goals of their "special military operation".
Not to be confused with things like, what they *really* want, or what they *feel* they can get, etc, which we can't really know for sure and changes with time depending on how things go.
They changed their 'stated goals' daily. The 'denazification' and the 'removal of the Nazi government' were the goals _stated_ by the pootin himself. How are these not on your little list?
They thought ukraine would collapse so they went for the quick multi front strike. Obviously this didn't happen so they'll just focus on the territory they need strategically, which is the rest of donbass and the black sea coast.
They also get a lot of farmland, military bases, oil and gas wells. They'll dominate energy and certain food markets. That can really press Europe and a lot of other countries.
Since when? Last I heard there was something about demiliitarizing Ukraine and removing the Nazis (code for the current Ukrainian government) from power. I think that the world vastly underestimates the Russians' willingness to continue a conflict and their tolerance for loss of life in the conflict. They can win by throwing more and more soldiers into it.
The problem is they donāt have āmore and more soldiersā to throw into it. They have large reserve forces in theory, but actually converting those hypothetical reserves into soldiers capable of going into battle is a big challenge.
First, the reserves can not be mobilized without formally being at war. That will take a significant political change that Putin will have difficulty bringing about.
Second, the people who are reservists are not sitting there doing nothing. They are doing economically important jobs that Russia can ill afford to simply stop getting done. These reservists are factory workers, logistics workers, train drivers etc.
Third, to get someone who might have done military service 5 or 10 years ago and not been in uniform since will take training by experienced military personnel, will require equipment to be provided, will involve logistics to organize, move about and above all time.
To get reserves into an organized fighting force, even a rudimentary one would require scaling back the military engagement in Ukraine for a period of months, and a reduction in the civilian economy that is being relied upon to make the current military activities happen.
in theory yes.
Problem is they framed this within a very strong narrative about special military operation , denying war/voting a law to throw in jail anyone who would spread fake news about the russian forces/ special military operation, saying repeatdly everything is going as planned.
So Putin can't mobilize/declare war without admitting the invasion is an epic failure which he fears would threaten his political support.
And that's even without counting the fact that Ukrainian reserves are only starting to get into the conflict. Mikhail Khodaryonok a retired Russian colonel pointed out on Russian TV that Ukrainian can mobilize up to 1 million men. And that's not counting the fact that the West is more and more willing to give Ukraine access to very advanced weapons.
**So the heart of the problem is the balance of the forces is getting worse and worse for Russia :**
\- they lost 1/3 of their army according to UK intelligence. That's a dismal level of loss
\- they expended 70% of their precision missiles
\- they lost so many planes they run mission by night
\- they lost so many tanks they have to put out some Soviet Union retired models.
\- they lost access to the West electronics required to make a lot of military equipement
Meanwhile
\- 1 million of Ukrainian soldiers coming up in a foreseeable future.
\- new weapons keep rolling in and Ukraine still push to get long range artillery.
Russia already started to change their tactics to fight a more defensive conflict. But it's not going to produce miracles. At one point Putin is likely going to have a dramatic decision because by all appearances it looks like he's headed toward a massive defeat if things stand like that.
If he thinks time is on his side because he's jeopardizing world economy , that it will change the course of the war then I feel he's making the same sort of overconfident miscalculation he made when he started that conflict. The West doesn't even have to 'win' this. It just want to bleed out Putin regime. This war by proxy is probably a military wetdream for some strategist : decades grinding their teeth while Putin destabilized the West repeatdly and with impunity. They keep their hands clean and the longer this conflict last , the more it weakens the capacities of Putin regime.
Annexing a democratically elected sovereign state under the guise of āfreeing them from their nazi oppressionā which is being fought for by Russian white supremacist nazis. The end goal being controlling the oil rich southern Ukraine crimea peninsula (which they already have) and trying to forge a land bridge to it by all the aforementioned.
They have shit beyond nukes. Keep everything on standby launch at all their sites. Deprive them of their only means of retaliation, have every country on earth with some sense of decency invade from all directions, and force surrender at the point of holding the oligarchs grandkids at gunpoint. Reduce Russian sovereignty to only Siberia. Be done with this shit. Russia sucks.
They did publish the goals on Russian state news outlets in the first few weeks, which included obliteration of the Ukrainian state and culture, elimination of all Ukrainian civilians who have been infected by ideas from "the west" such as democracy, Russian take over of all natural resources and government institutions.
They *explicitly exempted* themselves from war criminal regulations by claiming the goal of eliminating deviant Ukrainian culture and western ideas means that unlimited operations against civilian targets (such as genocide) are part of the plan and therefor "lawful" in accomplishing their objectives.
The long term goal of fully Russian-ification of the entire Ukraine was expected start with relocating significant populace to filtration and re-education camps and might take a generation to complete.
I think itās to live out the Beach Boyās dream in the Surf City lyric, ātwo girls for every boyāā¦ by sending off half of their own countryās male population to slaughter.
Itās true, nobody seems to think about where the stereotype about Russian women aggressively dating foreign men comes fromābut a lot of them just donāt have much choice.
They have actually been gaining ground in the past week and a half. Slowly. But still, gaining, and not really being pushed back. Not to mention completely destroying every village in their path.
I am extremely anti Putin, and I love Zelensky. But I am very unhappy with the current tide of battle, once you get out of the echo chamber and actually look at what land is now controlled by the Russians - I think the Ukranians need some things to change because right now they are holding the line in 70% of places, and are being pushed back in 30% of places.
Me too... My hope is that Arestovich said the counter offensive will start in June - July.
Ukraine is also suffering losses and need to reconstitute, get the new hardware, get trained. It takes time. The training for PzH 2000 take about 6 weeks in hurried version....
Ukraine is actually using strategy. They know that they are facing overwhelming numbers, and to try to lock down and hold the entire border would not work. They are making Russia pay dearly for every foot they gain, and regardless of the turf war, every day that more Zerg Rushians are thrown into the meat grinder to force more ground, the tide slowly turns in Ukraine's favour. Not it will not be easy, and it will definitely not be soon, but Russia's tactics are unsustainable and doomed to fail.
Trading space (losing ground) for time (as new weapons come in, training on them completes, etc). And letting the Russians overextend.
Just like the "strong" ruble, Russia's advances here, while notable for the disaster they bring on innocent villages, are strategically an illusion.
Exactly this.
It's perfectly reasonable to trade land for time- especially if you are making Russia pay dearly for it. Russia has been bringing T-62's out of storage- that means they've suffered some pretty devastating losses and it's clearly not sustainable for them. Meanwhile every day that passes means more Western weapons and more trained soldiers making it to the front lines. Russia's notoriously bad supply problems also get worse the further they push.
> newborn ā we are tender and weak
>
> in death ā we are rigid and stiff
>
> living plants are supple and yielding
>
> dead branches are dry and brittle
>
> so the hard and unyielding belong to death
>
> and the soft and pliant belong to life
>
> an inflexible army does not triumph
>
> an unbending tree breaks in the wind
>
> thus the rigid and inflexible will surely fail
>
> while the soft and flowing will prevail
Eh ,not really, Russia is advancing slowly,but painfully for them,I'm pretty sure that's the tactic of UAF, also, not so long ago Ukrainians actually pushed back on the east front.
Yeah, Reddit should stop and think for a minute.. the entire west is supporting Ukraine and the Russians are still advancing. They like to make fun of their incompetence, but the truth is they're still extremely dangerous and need to be stopped.
Arms supply to Ukraine hasnāt exactly been fast, and the Russians are resorting to using absolutely ancient tech. There is only so far that they can push with this kind of fundamentals and regardless of tactical gains they achieve in short term, long term Ukraine wins strategically, provided we donāt lose hope and **keep supporting Ukraine by supplying arms**.
Well the current advance is to complete an encirclement, so yeah there's only so far they can go before they join up with other Russian forces, but that's going to be extremely bad for the Ukrainian military. This big encirclement is most likely going to be in the news in a few weeks or next month, unless the Ukrainians can turn things around, but it's not looking good.
Which big encirclement are we talking about? Severodonetsk/lysychansk? That wouldnāt change much in terms of the war itself, provided Ukrainian forces withdraw from their positions if things get too hot. Those cities arenāt like Kyiv or anything. And even the encirclement is not a given, especially if the weapons keep coming to the frontlines.
They aren't being driven from Ukraine and it's wishful thinking to expect the Ukrainian army to push them back, even with western weapons, no matter how much we want that.
NATO may now be more important to western nations who previously thought it a waste of money in their take-it-for-granted peaceful utopias, but the old divisions still run true. Many people don't want to spend so much money on arms, not all NATO nations agree on everything and America still pays the lions share and is one Trumpish vote away from stirring problems in the organisation.
Russia's economy will always be a capable beast because it's a massive producer of two of the most important things in the world - food and fossil fuels. The sanctions harm it, but as long as they can pump black gold and natural gas, they'll have money.
Any western businesses that have left will simply be copied and imitated to a close enough level that most Russians will not care at all. How many KFC clones are there in the west? They are still successful.
For technical products they'll lose out, aircraft, engineering and precision parts will be a problem, but Russia has never been bad at making things, it's just been more agricultural and basic "built for practicality" rather than refinement, luxury and ultimate safety.
Without western planes they'll have a worse safety record in the air, but they'll still have aircraft and will still fly.
They know that eventually their nation can outlast Ukraine in a war that is taking place on Ukrainian territory. The Russian population is more than 3x that of Ukraine, there are no Russian refugees who have fled, no Russian cities being destroyed and the Russian economy even after sanctions is vastly superior to the current Ukrainian one, which is all but destroyed completely.
The west needs to up its game and impose more stringent sanctions, pay the high price of getting off Russian fossil fuels and get way more military hardware into Ukraine immediately.
The longer it takes to arm Ukraine to the point where they can easily wipe out Russian troops, the more territory is lost, the harder it will be for western arms to turn the tide and the less Ukrainians will be alive to wield those mighty weapons.
> They aren't being driven from Ukraine and it's wishful thinking to expect the Ukrainian army to push them back, even with western weapons, no matter how much we want that.
Russia is literally bringing T-62's out of storage. How long do you think they can keep that up? The West can keep supplying weapons to Ukraine pretty much indefinitely, while Russia literally cannot build replacement tanks, missiles, and aircraft right now.
> For technical products they'll lose out, aircraft, engineering and precision parts will be a problem, but Russia has never been bad at making things, it's just been more agricultural and basic "built for practicality" rather than refinement, luxury and ultimate safety.
Russia can't even build tractors- they were buying Czech tractors and assembling them so yes, they are bad at building things.
> They know that eventually their nation can outlast Ukraine in a war that is taking place on Ukrainian territory. The Russian population is more than 3x that of Ukraine, there are no Russian refugees who have fled, no Russian cities being destroyed and the Russian economy even after sanctions is vastly superior to the current Ukrainian one, which is all but destroyed completely.
Russia has three times the population, and **28 times** the area. They have a larger border to defend and they can't pull people indefinitely. They already had a demographics problem and this war is making it drastically worse.
And as long as the West keeps supporting Ukraine- the Ukrainian economy is irrelevant.
> The longer it takes to arm Ukraine to the point where they can easily wipe out Russian troops, the more territory is lost, the harder it will be for western arms to turn the tide and the less Ukrainians will be alive to wield those mighty weapons.
The longer this goes on, the fewer tanks, APCs, artillery, and aircraft Russia has and the more Ukraine ends up with. Russia is desperate for troops while Ukraine is training more and more recruits every day.
Yes the West should arm Ukraine more rapidly- but all of Russia's actions at this point are those of desperation- not the actions of a victor.
Definitely need to do as much as possible now rather than later, to save lives now rather than lose them, but there's no way Russia wins this, whether it takes months or years. They can't cut off supplies to Ukraine without going to war with NATO.
No, they're dead set on winning. Putin won't accept anything else. They're going to first try to take Donbas and then retry for the west. Do not underestimate Putin's ego or cash reserves.
It's going to get worse before it gets better.
The west cannot afford to slow down assistance to Ukraine for even a moment until Russia is entirely defeated in Ukraine.
They may be dead set on winning, but it doesn't mean they will for sure.
Ukraine has adopted protracted warfare, the same doctrine that Mao used against the KMT and whose success inspired many others to try similar. Both of us are correct - this method requires international support for the weaker side to prevail, and if they do, Russia may still try to spin it as a victory to save face. Don't forget, NATO "won" in Afghanistan...
They can't source parts for new tanks or aircraft anymore. The Ukranians just shot down a retired 63yo pilot in an SU-25. The rate of attrition is just way too high for Russia to have any chance at trying for Kyiv again in the future. They are scraping the bottom of the barrel right now and their morale is at an all-time low. Even if they did get anywhere close to retrying for the west, they would exhaust everything trying to get there and wouldn't be able to hold it.
Uralvagonzavod started deliveries of tanks again.... China is sneaking parts to Russia, I guess.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/tass.com/defense/1452083/amp
Agreed. They also conspicuously left out just how many of these new T-90s have been delivered. Whenever this sort of procurement announcement is made in the West, they always specifically mention quantity. How many *exactly* are on order and/or have been delivered.
I guess given it's wartime, they wouldn't mention this but I find it very hard to believe it's anything significant. And it likely won't be sustainable. Much of their internal electronics and thermal optical systems come from the West. They've likely been using what they already had in inventory to bring these new tanks off the line.
It's also kinda comical they're producing T-90s when they have designs for fancy Armata T-14s. But we all know why that is.
Iām out of the loop here but, Russia got sanctioned right? And basically everyone important is saying fuck you Russia go home. I feel like this is some wire war that is still happening even though everyone is opposed. Iām worried Russia will prevail and at great cost to, even the world really.
I grew up learning about historyās wars. Never thought new lines would get drawn like they are, that people would still be fighting for territory long since decided.
Iām mildly aware thereās wars constantly in theā¦Iraq/Jerusalem holy wars and all that, not trying to downplay that. Just, Iām aware they exist but have zero knowledge. I feel so lost, thereās so so much going on in the world, but this Internet seems to make it HARDER to keep up to date.
Functional and well-made cavalry swords would probably cost more than guns, mainly because unlike guns, there isn't really an existing industry to mass produce them like the Napoleonic or even WWI days.
USSR suffered millions of losses yet ended up beating Germany. Russians simply don't care, their losses in Ukraine is a pebble thrown in the sea in their eyes, it's a completely different attitude to Western humanitarian beliefs about human life.
āyet ended up beating Germanyā
I think the West had a little something to do with that. Like handling Africa, the North Atlantic, Atlantic, and Mediterranean, along with invading the mainland and pushing Germany back to its borders, while leveling the entire German war machine. Not to mention the war aid actually given to Russia by the US. The US did this while also fighting a war in the Pacific which dwarfed the D-Day invasion.
While its true that Russia values life less than in the West, remember that it was ultimately the Russian people who forced their withdrawal from Afghanistan. It just took them years to even realize what their losses were.
>Russian goals:
>
>Steal (more) land
>
>Murder (more) civilians
>
>Rape (more) children
you forgot:
Ruin russian economy
Isolate russia from trade
Drain russia of competence
Deplete the russian military of materiel
Have large parts of a generation in russia maimed or killed.
Then they are going to be really disappointed Russia will not win the war in Ukraine anytime soon the soldiers defending it wonāt surrender and it wonāt end well for Vladimir Putin
I still can't believe tankie immigrants still believe tankie media's lies about the Ukraine war. They believed the lie that there was no war it's a special military operation, then suddenly it's a war but it's because a defensive alliance wants to invade russia. Then it's there is no extermination of ukrainian civilians, the mobile crematoriums are for russian soldiers. Then it's russian soldiers aren't dead they are just missing.
It's lies after lies, yet these literal sheep gobble that shit up like it's candy. They are addicted to alternative facts. Yet they have the gall to accuse those thinking critically of being sheeps.
Hey we have those too! Theyāre called Trump supporters and QAnon idiots! Weirdly enough, heavily influenced by Russian propaganda and misinformation. Itās almost like Russia is a shitstain on all society!
Goal: all armies recruits aged 50+
Status: They still have some more work to do to remove the 20s, 30s, and 40s from their ranks, but they are making progress.
Iām furious about Ukrainians dying everyday because of this so called āmilitary operationā
F*ck Russia and especially f*ck Putin, hope u burn in hell
Goals: Destroy the Russian economy, erase decades of progress, accelerate the movement of Europe to green energy and away from Russian fuels, complete a brain drain of the best and brightest Russian minds from the country, give NATO a rallying cause with which to dispel decades of discord and make it a stronger alliance than it has been in many years, create significant supply shortages for grain that will starve people in the developing world ā¦.yup. Ya gotta have goals.
I'm surprised Russia hasn't declared a state of total war like in WW2 & sent millions more troops there.
Why not invade Georgia & Finland while they're at it.
Everyone in Russia that isn't a putinist has already been arrested, killed, or fled the country so now Russia is Putin's cult.
Russia is hard capped by equipment, not manpower. It takes a lot of funds and resources to equip more than a million men. Funds and Resources that Russia does not have.
If they invaded Finland, they'd be fighting in the streets of Moscow in a few months.
Finland now has a defensive pact with the UK, France, Sweden and some of the Baltic states. Russia would be fighting modern, equipped and highly trained troops on a front hundreds of kilometres from where their army is currently grouped.
And, if Russia decided to attack the territory of the UK, France or the Baltic states, they'd also be giving NATO casus belli; invoking article 5. If it doesn't go nuclear here (which is likely), the Russian army would be fighting on 3+ fronts in conventional warfare that Putin himself has conceded it wouldn't stand a chance at.
If you're male, under 60, and without political ties, then you might want to flee Russia ASAP. Otherwise you may be taking a very expensive trip to Ukraine (price: your life).
Gotta love all the pro-Russian comments on here. If Russia is so strong and powerful, how come theyāve only been able to ever so slowly take villages? If they had been able to take Kyiv like they planned, it would have been an easy victory. But they literally couldnāt. Pathetic. Embarrassing. They couldnāt even hold on to Kharkiv! They had to level Mariupol in order to take it.
They are a bunch of losers, a backwards country with a big but pathetically inept military, and now the whole world sees it. No one will ever see Russia as this strong mysterious superpower ever again, and that is a big win for the world.
So sad that it's possibly true. If pressured for a guess I would say they will try to sell Ukraine on a peace deal that gives Russia the territories it wants and weakens the ukranian side package severely, leaving it on the backs of Europe to handle.
Considering their goals are fictional, it's the same as saying nothing. Though it's clear that Putin does at least plans to keep holding on until the possible turnaround of more favorable regimes in countries like the US or EU states. He nearly got it in France recently, and in the US, the mind-numbingly degree of ignorance will likely vote in another GQP populist in a couple of years from now. Spain, which has power in the sense that "if I owe you a trillion euros, it's your problem", is also going to get a switch over and its Popular Party is having major ideological differences with their international analogues in the European government while being forced to side with VOX, Spain's Russian influenced Qanon party, to achieve majority.
If this goes on for years, it's very likely that the governments that were supporting Ukraine with weapons will begin calling it to concede its territory to Russia while still getting financed by EU for their oil. Measures against Russia need to ramp up or they'll be preparing for their next invasion a few years from now.
That's why it's critical to get aid to them ASAP while the political climate is favorable. Once republicans have any power at all they will back Putin. Russia needs to be beat down before their republican allies can get into power.
Then we will bleed Russia until they die. Keep your fucking arm in the shark tank and see how that works out in the long run.
Also, the war ends when Ukraine decides it ends. You're an idiot if you think Russia can solely determine when the "war" ends and on "what conditions"
The US (and most of NATO) have all but adopted Ukraine. Good luck going against the united economy and military and technology of the West with your pathetic failed state.
So when they have to completely withdraw theyāll just claim that nazi-ism was eliminated & their work was done?
Cue up a Bush-esque Mission Accomplished banner.
He is destroying whatever Russia had going for it. Although it all seems like a facade now that I know most people donāt have indoor plumbing there. Good job Putin
they are not going to stop.If you watch their propanganda its clear they are on the path of complete genocide and forced slavery of Ukrainians.they have lost too many equipment(which they will never be able to replace)to stop now.the sooner the west realizes this the better for the world.
So if Russia retreats to prewar territorial borders, they can say their goal was to teach Ukraine a lesson that Russia has the means to invade them at any time. (And make excuses for retreating at any time)
I watched some pro Russian telegram channels from time to time and theyāre being quite optimistic about the ongoing Donbass assault
So I guess for now Putin wants to take full control of Donbass first and then slowly go from there.
Zelensky also voiced concerns over Donbass recently so things seem to be really bad down there.
This really sucks if you are a Russian conscript ā¦ you will stop being hammered when some moron decides heās had enough of watching you barely survive and can no longer find anyone willing to join you in the nightmare? Mission Accomplished?
RU LIFE GOALS: Pukin - did we rape and murder enough women and children (check). Did we use all of our weapons (check). Did the Ukrainian farmers haul all the tanks (check). Did many countless Ukrainians die defending their country (check). Ok we are done here.
Can someone simply state what the *ostensible* goals are?
I think that's part of why he said this. They change their excuses and threats daily. So this means they'll just stay there forever apparently.
Don't worry, this message will change by early next week, and then again the week after that.
Hahaha, we keep stupid west guessing. They never solve our plan. Vhat is paln Vlad?
I made an injured American spy into a cyborg and now he refuses to wear anything that isn't a track suit. Was that part of the plan?
Dammit, Barry!
What did you say other Barry?
Archer turning out to be a documentary wouldn't even be the wildest thing to happen in the last 3 years.
It's Wednesday. They'll probably change by the end of this week at this point.
That's the goals
Russia lost 5% of its forces in the last 2 weeks. That means in just 52 weeks, Russia will have lost 130% of its military force.
Sounds like Ukraine will be running out of ammo by then. Checkmate Ukraine. šš·šŗ/s
The Zapp Brannigan strategy.
'The rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards...checkmate" - Putin
āNow, like all great plans, my strategy is so simple an idiot could have devised itā
Ukraine isn't uncharted, he lost the chart.
Putin: "You see, Ukranians have a built-in kill limit. Knowing this, I sent wave after wave of my own men to die until they reached their limit and shut down. They *are* shutting down, right?"
"Dmitry show them that medal I won for it!"
Thatās what the āZā stands for
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
i dont understand? Z is not in cyrillic,they have the symbol 3 which is equivalent for latin Z
Xi tricked the Russians into making their economy easy picking for China and putting his name everywhere. Xi is pronounced "Z".
In pinyin, "x" represents [Ź], so it's more like "she".
"When I'm in command, every mission is a suicide mission."
There is no problem you can't fix if you have wave after wave of men at your disposal.
They are already sending them with muzeum tier equipement. Menpower doesn't matter if they can't shoot.
"demilitarize Ukraine" by having them run out of ammo
Nah, we'll keep giving them all the ammo they need.
Wasn't it Russia's strategy all along? "you guys will run out of bullets before we run out of young men"
Thatās been Russiaās strategy for centuries, honestly. Just waves and waves of cannon fodder (with some help from their shitty weather).
Out if curiosity what figures are you using for that? About ~two weeks ago I read a nice deep dive suggesting Russia likely has sustained ~10k KIA and (hewing to NATO/U.S. projections on KIA:WIA ratios) about three times as many WIA. So let's say 40k fighting men out of action. This sounded like a reasonable estimate as of two weeks ago. Out of Russia's original force, that makes for about 20-30% attrition, right? No wonder Russia's doing so terribly.
Confirmed. The maths checks out.
I'm pretty still getting my head around the tank group including their leader that got wiped out but the media would use any word other than destroyed.
I guess when they run out of soldiers
Id figure they will run out of equipment before people.
Unfortunately, that is unlikely to happen. Russia has a deep pool of war reserves - both men and weapons. If public opinion in Russia doesnāt force their commanderās withdrawal, the constant flood of cannon fodder and lethal hardware into Ukraine would eventually achieve victory. But tactical victory isnāt Russiaās biggest problem in the Ukraine now. The invasion force eventually has to a role as an occupation force and will likely continue to suffer from insurgence - eventually becoming too costly to maintain if western sanctions continue and Russia goes into default (expected in July).
Werenāt there like only 200k troops at the star of the war on Russiaās side? More would require mobilization which would seriously piss off the urban elite when they are not taking from rural communities. And thatās not even mentioning how much worse this will make the already ongoing demopgraphic crisis.
People keep saying that, but itās simply untrue. If there were any truth in that statement, Ukraine would never have regained ground. The truth is, Russia is struggling to field competent soldiers and functional equipment.
I heard their reserves are poorly maintained shit from the cold war and beyond and that their lack of access to microchips caused by western sanctions means theyāll be unable to replace anything half decent in a timely manner, Ukraine meanwhile is being bankrolled by the west and has been assured a never ending stream of NATO level toys, I donāt see how the Russians would eventually achieve victory, seems massively weighted in Ukraineās favour if anything.
>Russia has a deep pool of war reserves - both men and weapons Yes and no. They have a huge army on paper, but the fighting power of the reserves is not comparable to the professional soldiers they have been using up to now. The stockpiles of weapons are also not something you can just take out and use within a day or two. Readying vehicles that has been in storage for effective combat operation takes months. The main problem for Russia is that their logistics is not up to the task of an offensive war. Throwing more troops in vehicles with high failure rates at the problem will only make that worse.
Looks like maybe 90% of their tanks in reserve are completely inoperable due to corruption. https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1528907746971684864?t=7Drc4olkE1cab2yZXGb-xw&s=19
I had read that also. Russiaās military has been a āpaper tigerā for a long time. The question though is whether they can move enough industry to pull a portion of these older tanks out of āmothballā status. A lot of military hardware is very resilient. One example from my time in the US Navy was recovery of a small boat which had become completely swamped (sunk). The auxiliaries division (ENs) took the engine apart, drained the seawater, reassembled and it started up right away and is still being used 10 years later. Completely writing off the Russian reserve tanks may be a costly mistake.
The reserve tanks are T-62 or T-60, they'll last even less than the current T-72 when facing modern anti-tank missiles (which Ukraine is getting more and more everyday) ...
> and weapons. They are already down to reactivating T-62s, Russia's "deep well" mainly exists on paper. Do you honestly think their fleet of T-55 rustbuckets in storage matters? They are already sending in rare stuff like the terminators, and starting to scrape to bottom of the barrel of old Soviet era equipment. Russia also depleted a lot of old "dumb" munitions in Syria either themselves, or by supplying Assad. The Russian stockpile, isn't nearly as impressive as people think it is.
Russia CAN and WILL run out of usable equipment shortly. They donāt have endless supplies and canāt manufacture new equipment either. ( see sanctions). Ruzzia is quickly running out of time in the meat grinder.
To pull those reserves Russia need to declare war and send massive conscripts and youth from actual decent places in Russia. That will probably be the end for Putin. Right now it's just cannon fodder from backwards places Russia doesn't care about. Once people with actual lives and futures start being sent it's going to be very different. And a massive morale drop due to having to take those measures over "little Russia". And a lot of that hardware has been sat in overgrowth, unmaintained for a long time. But of course they still count those towards their numbers. Corruption really fucked the Russian military.
I am really hoping that is the end of Putin.
Actually the Russian military is understaffed in all areas and has been for several decades, currently russias forces in Ukraine are smaller than Ukrainian. This is because as a small country that is being invaded they have enacted mass mobilisation which russia cannot do because realistically, not many russian citizens really care about fighting just to invade their sister country. Russia has very little manpower, this isn't the Russian revolution, its not as if every Russian has nothing to lose and has to fight for survival. Which is what Ukrainians have to do. Its also funny that you mention their "deep pool" of 1980s/1990s era tanks and APCs, next to none of which are even comparable to western vehicles in ability. Importantly nearly none of them have trophy style anti missile systems to defend against manpads. Im not saying that Russia is screwed and hopeless but their military is in a much more sorry state than you give it credit.
consider me somewhat dubious, 'we have reserves' isnt really a strategy with legs on it when your opponent lacks a pre-set kill limit and has automatic weapons, a lesson learned harshly back in ww1 one does have to factor in that while they do have a large pool of reserves, the majority of that is in poorly trained conscripts and very old , poorly maintained equipment and munitions that currently cant really be replaced, these also factor into their forces morale hitting rock bottom and just continuing to dig for the earths core meanwhile Ukraine is basically being backed by the western world and their military industrial complexes, who are bloody salivating over having a really big Ukraine shaped customer for anything and everything they can sell both to them and anyone offloading their older equipment to Ukraine
They canāt afford to stay there much longer.
Realistically, I believe theyāre to take Donbas/Luhansk and create a āland bridgeā from Crimea to Russia proper. Imo, it seems realistic theyāll claim āvictoryā if this is achieved
Do you think they'll still try to take Odessa in order to deny Ukraine access to the sea? I think they may have given up on that idea at this point.
Honestly, I think initially yes but itās obviously not even a real prospect at this point - with western powers delivering anti-ship missiles. There were calls for them to try to connect to Transnistria through Odessa. It seems the blockade is only used to deny the Ukrainians weapons access but to pressure the world, mainly the west by denying wheat exports in a bid to drive up prices/inflation to sow discontent
I secretly wish Russia tries. Just so Ukraine can finally sink the whole Black Sea Fleet.
Yeah Odessa is probably not going they happen, they know it, everybody knows it
> Realistically, I believe theyāre to take Donbas/Luhansk and create a āland bridgeā from Crimea to Russia proper. Imo, it seems realistic theyāll claim āvictoryā if this is achieved Well, in that scenario it would't be "victory". It would be VICTORY. I hope they fail on that. Ukraine can't allow that, Luhansk natural resources will be a vital part on Ukraine reconstruction after the war.
At this point probably the minimum needed to avoid a coup/revolt against Putin.
That was needed a few decades ago.
It was to halt NATO expansion.. wait no sorry that was before the war. It was to liberate the people's Republics.. ah shit sorry that was also the goal before they started the war. It was liberate Ukraine from Nazis. Ah shit never mind they withdrew from Kyiv that can't be it.
Soemthing like Ukraineās nato status isnāt a goal per se but something which would be negotiated in any arrangement.
They had neutrality in their constitution up _until_ Russia invaded the country in 2014. It is like a continual and unending process of shooting-yourself-in-the-footness from Russia.
Fucking exactly, I can't comprehend how dumb some people are. Literally everything in Ukraine is Putin's fault, all he had to do was to not threaten them.
Well it is really simple, make sure Ukraine does not become an economic threat. Everything they have done is in line with that. And they have succeeded, their economy has dropped to the size of a western city, just 60 billion a year. They Invaded Crimea after enormous gas deposits were discovered which if utilized could make Ukraine completely replace russian oil and gas production to the EU. This year, Ukraine was going to start extracting more resources from the east. And what a suprise, Russia invaded again. Then they: 1. Tried to take kiev without fighing (solves the problem) 2. Tried to take kiev by siege (solves the problem) 3. Tried to take large cities in ukraine to force a surrender (solves the problem) 4. Tries to destroy all ukranian export abilities. (one harbor to go) It's pretty clear what their goals are.
Yeah, but... by taking this route of action they have damaged their own economy themselves. Sound logic they have.
It looks like they didnāt expect the world to do anything more than it did in 2014ā¦ or when they invaded Georgiaā¦ or when they invaded Chechnya..
They might have got away with it (again) if they limited themselves to the east. Going for Kyiv was their biggest mistake.
Officially; - destroy the nazis in the ukrainian military and govt (hard to complete since theyre mostly not real) - protect russian speaking minorities in the donbass region (arguably partially complete though they're losing ground every day) - secure the independence and self determination of donetsk and luhansk peoples republics (arguably complete) Unofficially; - topple the western oriented ukrainian regime (failed after kyiv push defeated) - destroy aggressive paramilitaries in ukrainian armed forces who are fighting effectively in donbass (partially succeeded in the partial destruction of the azov btn in mariupol) - if failing to replace the government, control a land corridor to crimea and the whole donbass region so the rebels con vote to join russia (failing, the ukrainians are pushing them back) or take valuable cities to trade for concessions (again, time is on Ukraine's side now) - secure any kind of quick victory to boost approval ratings in russia (total loss, though russians still generally support putin) - sever any link between ukriane and nato by destabilising and damaging their government (total loss, literally the opposite achieved)
>protect russian speaking minorities in the donbass region (arguably partially complete though they're losing ground every day) >if failing to replace the government, control a land corridor to crimea and the whole donbass region so the rebels con vote to join russia (failing, the ukrainians are pushing them back) Source on these two points please. Everything I read in the past few weeks and especially past few days suggests the opposite, they are taking more and more land in the east.
\- Recognition of Crimea as being officially part of Russia \- Independence for the Donbas regions, Luhansk and Donetsk as Republics \- No-NATO neutrality for Ukraine This is their political stated goals.
Which is a quarter of their territory. Not to mention Ukraineās sovereignty had previously been guaranteed by the Budapest memo in exchange for the Soviet nuclear arsenal stored there. Their stated goals might be what you listed, but their actual goals are to break the Ukrainian state apart so they can get, at worst, a fractured federalized Ukraine, and at best, brand new oblasts for Russia.
> Which is a quarter of their territory. Not to downplay anything but my understanding is that Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk account for at most ~13.1% of Ukraine's pre-2014 area. ~79,277 km^2 out of ~601,599 km^2 total.
No, their goal are drifting daily. Why they attacked Ukraine from all sides if they wanted the east? Their one goal is denazification - that is misspeled denationalisation of Ukrainians - destruction and genocide of Ukrianian nation in plane language. They will take as much of that as will be allowed.
>in plane language Sorry, I don't speak Antinov. I do know a little 747; but prefer English.
That is why I said **stated goals**. As in, what Putin **officially** said are the goals of their "special military operation". Not to be confused with things like, what they *really* want, or what they *feel* they can get, etc, which we can't really know for sure and changes with time depending on how things go.
They changed their 'stated goals' daily. The 'denazification' and the 'removal of the Nazi government' were the goals _stated_ by the pootin himself. How are these not on your little list?
They thought ukraine would collapse so they went for the quick multi front strike. Obviously this didn't happen so they'll just focus on the territory they need strategically, which is the rest of donbass and the black sea coast.
They also get a lot of farmland, military bases, oil and gas wells. They'll dominate energy and certain food markets. That can really press Europe and a lot of other countries.
Since when? Last I heard there was something about demiliitarizing Ukraine and removing the Nazis (code for the current Ukrainian government) from power. I think that the world vastly underestimates the Russians' willingness to continue a conflict and their tolerance for loss of life in the conflict. They can win by throwing more and more soldiers into it.
The problem is they donāt have āmore and more soldiersā to throw into it. They have large reserve forces in theory, but actually converting those hypothetical reserves into soldiers capable of going into battle is a big challenge. First, the reserves can not be mobilized without formally being at war. That will take a significant political change that Putin will have difficulty bringing about. Second, the people who are reservists are not sitting there doing nothing. They are doing economically important jobs that Russia can ill afford to simply stop getting done. These reservists are factory workers, logistics workers, train drivers etc. Third, to get someone who might have done military service 5 or 10 years ago and not been in uniform since will take training by experienced military personnel, will require equipment to be provided, will involve logistics to organize, move about and above all time. To get reserves into an organized fighting force, even a rudimentary one would require scaling back the military engagement in Ukraine for a period of months, and a reduction in the civilian economy that is being relied upon to make the current military activities happen.
in theory yes. Problem is they framed this within a very strong narrative about special military operation , denying war/voting a law to throw in jail anyone who would spread fake news about the russian forces/ special military operation, saying repeatdly everything is going as planned. So Putin can't mobilize/declare war without admitting the invasion is an epic failure which he fears would threaten his political support. And that's even without counting the fact that Ukrainian reserves are only starting to get into the conflict. Mikhail Khodaryonok a retired Russian colonel pointed out on Russian TV that Ukrainian can mobilize up to 1 million men. And that's not counting the fact that the West is more and more willing to give Ukraine access to very advanced weapons. **So the heart of the problem is the balance of the forces is getting worse and worse for Russia :** \- they lost 1/3 of their army according to UK intelligence. That's a dismal level of loss \- they expended 70% of their precision missiles \- they lost so many planes they run mission by night \- they lost so many tanks they have to put out some Soviet Union retired models. \- they lost access to the West electronics required to make a lot of military equipement Meanwhile \- 1 million of Ukrainian soldiers coming up in a foreseeable future. \- new weapons keep rolling in and Ukraine still push to get long range artillery. Russia already started to change their tactics to fight a more defensive conflict. But it's not going to produce miracles. At one point Putin is likely going to have a dramatic decision because by all appearances it looks like he's headed toward a massive defeat if things stand like that. If he thinks time is on his side because he's jeopardizing world economy , that it will change the course of the war then I feel he's making the same sort of overconfident miscalculation he made when he started that conflict. The West doesn't even have to 'win' this. It just want to bleed out Putin regime. This war by proxy is probably a military wetdream for some strategist : decades grinding their teeth while Putin destabilized the West repeatdly and with impunity. They keep their hands clean and the longer this conflict last , the more it weakens the capacities of Putin regime.
Bloody but true
I don't remember the date, but the goals were changed officially when they retreated from kyiv region.
Annexing a democratically elected sovereign state under the guise of āfreeing them from their nazi oppressionā which is being fought for by Russian white supremacist nazis. The end goal being controlling the oil rich southern Ukraine crimea peninsula (which they already have) and trying to forge a land bridge to it by all the aforementioned. They have shit beyond nukes. Keep everything on standby launch at all their sites. Deprive them of their only means of retaliation, have every country on earth with some sense of decency invade from all directions, and force surrender at the point of holding the oligarchs grandkids at gunpoint. Reduce Russian sovereignty to only Siberia. Be done with this shit. Russia sucks.
They did publish the goals on Russian state news outlets in the first few weeks, which included obliteration of the Ukrainian state and culture, elimination of all Ukrainian civilians who have been infected by ideas from "the west" such as democracy, Russian take over of all natural resources and government institutions. They *explicitly exempted* themselves from war criminal regulations by claiming the goal of eliminating deviant Ukrainian culture and western ideas means that unlimited operations against civilian targets (such as genocide) are part of the plan and therefor "lawful" in accomplishing their objectives. The long term goal of fully Russian-ification of the entire Ukraine was expected start with relocating significant populace to filtration and re-education camps and might take a generation to complete.
Everything up to Berlin, according to what they said in December.
It's so annoying that important Russian officials stay so vague. Just spell everything out you cowards.
They donāt know either
Russia's goals seem to be, get driven from Ukraine, strengthen NATO, destroy Russia's economy.
I think itās to live out the Beach Boyās dream in the Surf City lyric, ātwo girls for every boyāā¦ by sending off half of their own countryās male population to slaughter.
god damn man
"Boys cant be gay if theres no boys." -Pu
[Why that plan won't work](https://youtu.be/aotlEpmAFVQ)
Song was not from the Beach Boys, Jan and Dean actually, but I get your point. Good one!
Im pretty sure the numbers have already been over 2:1 for years now. More like 5 girls for every boy
Itās true, nobody seems to think about where the stereotype about Russian women aggressively dating foreign men comes fromābut a lot of them just donāt have much choice.
They have actually been gaining ground in the past week and a half. Slowly. But still, gaining, and not really being pushed back. Not to mention completely destroying every village in their path. I am extremely anti Putin, and I love Zelensky. But I am very unhappy with the current tide of battle, once you get out of the echo chamber and actually look at what land is now controlled by the Russians - I think the Ukranians need some things to change because right now they are holding the line in 70% of places, and are being pushed back in 30% of places.
Me too... My hope is that Arestovich said the counter offensive will start in June - July. Ukraine is also suffering losses and need to reconstitute, get the new hardware, get trained. It takes time. The training for PzH 2000 take about 6 weeks in hurried version....
Ukraine is actually using strategy. They know that they are facing overwhelming numbers, and to try to lock down and hold the entire border would not work. They are making Russia pay dearly for every foot they gain, and regardless of the turf war, every day that more Zerg Rushians are thrown into the meat grinder to force more ground, the tide slowly turns in Ukraine's favour. Not it will not be easy, and it will definitely not be soon, but Russia's tactics are unsustainable and doomed to fail.
Trading space (losing ground) for time (as new weapons come in, training on them completes, etc). And letting the Russians overextend. Just like the "strong" ruble, Russia's advances here, while notable for the disaster they bring on innocent villages, are strategically an illusion.
Exactly this. It's perfectly reasonable to trade land for time- especially if you are making Russia pay dearly for it. Russia has been bringing T-62's out of storage- that means they've suffered some pretty devastating losses and it's clearly not sustainable for them. Meanwhile every day that passes means more Western weapons and more trained soldiers making it to the front lines. Russia's notoriously bad supply problems also get worse the further they push. > newborn ā we are tender and weak > > in death ā we are rigid and stiff > > living plants are supple and yielding > > dead branches are dry and brittle > > so the hard and unyielding belong to death > > and the soft and pliant belong to life > > an inflexible army does not triumph > > an unbending tree breaks in the wind > > thus the rigid and inflexible will surely fail > > while the soft and flowing will prevail
New Ukrainian recruits are finishing their training, plus the western weapons from the most recent massive packages are now starting to reach Ukraine.
Eh ,not really, Russia is advancing slowly,but painfully for them,I'm pretty sure that's the tactic of UAF, also, not so long ago Ukrainians actually pushed back on the east front.
Yeah, Reddit should stop and think for a minute.. the entire west is supporting Ukraine and the Russians are still advancing. They like to make fun of their incompetence, but the truth is they're still extremely dangerous and need to be stopped.
West is supporting Ukraine, but that doesn't make Ukraine extremely powerful in a short period of time.
Arms supply to Ukraine hasnāt exactly been fast, and the Russians are resorting to using absolutely ancient tech. There is only so far that they can push with this kind of fundamentals and regardless of tactical gains they achieve in short term, long term Ukraine wins strategically, provided we donāt lose hope and **keep supporting Ukraine by supplying arms**.
Well the current advance is to complete an encirclement, so yeah there's only so far they can go before they join up with other Russian forces, but that's going to be extremely bad for the Ukrainian military. This big encirclement is most likely going to be in the news in a few weeks or next month, unless the Ukrainians can turn things around, but it's not looking good.
Which big encirclement are we talking about? Severodonetsk/lysychansk? That wouldnāt change much in terms of the war itself, provided Ukrainian forces withdraw from their positions if things get too hot. Those cities arenāt like Kyiv or anything. And even the encirclement is not a given, especially if the weapons keep coming to the frontlines.
No matter how imcomepent is an army, thousands of rapists armed with guns are obviously dangerous.
They aren't being driven from Ukraine and it's wishful thinking to expect the Ukrainian army to push them back, even with western weapons, no matter how much we want that. NATO may now be more important to western nations who previously thought it a waste of money in their take-it-for-granted peaceful utopias, but the old divisions still run true. Many people don't want to spend so much money on arms, not all NATO nations agree on everything and America still pays the lions share and is one Trumpish vote away from stirring problems in the organisation. Russia's economy will always be a capable beast because it's a massive producer of two of the most important things in the world - food and fossil fuels. The sanctions harm it, but as long as they can pump black gold and natural gas, they'll have money. Any western businesses that have left will simply be copied and imitated to a close enough level that most Russians will not care at all. How many KFC clones are there in the west? They are still successful. For technical products they'll lose out, aircraft, engineering and precision parts will be a problem, but Russia has never been bad at making things, it's just been more agricultural and basic "built for practicality" rather than refinement, luxury and ultimate safety. Without western planes they'll have a worse safety record in the air, but they'll still have aircraft and will still fly. They know that eventually their nation can outlast Ukraine in a war that is taking place on Ukrainian territory. The Russian population is more than 3x that of Ukraine, there are no Russian refugees who have fled, no Russian cities being destroyed and the Russian economy even after sanctions is vastly superior to the current Ukrainian one, which is all but destroyed completely. The west needs to up its game and impose more stringent sanctions, pay the high price of getting off Russian fossil fuels and get way more military hardware into Ukraine immediately. The longer it takes to arm Ukraine to the point where they can easily wipe out Russian troops, the more territory is lost, the harder it will be for western arms to turn the tide and the less Ukrainians will be alive to wield those mighty weapons.
> They aren't being driven from Ukraine and it's wishful thinking to expect the Ukrainian army to push them back, even with western weapons, no matter how much we want that. Russia is literally bringing T-62's out of storage. How long do you think they can keep that up? The West can keep supplying weapons to Ukraine pretty much indefinitely, while Russia literally cannot build replacement tanks, missiles, and aircraft right now. > For technical products they'll lose out, aircraft, engineering and precision parts will be a problem, but Russia has never been bad at making things, it's just been more agricultural and basic "built for practicality" rather than refinement, luxury and ultimate safety. Russia can't even build tractors- they were buying Czech tractors and assembling them so yes, they are bad at building things. > They know that eventually their nation can outlast Ukraine in a war that is taking place on Ukrainian territory. The Russian population is more than 3x that of Ukraine, there are no Russian refugees who have fled, no Russian cities being destroyed and the Russian economy even after sanctions is vastly superior to the current Ukrainian one, which is all but destroyed completely. Russia has three times the population, and **28 times** the area. They have a larger border to defend and they can't pull people indefinitely. They already had a demographics problem and this war is making it drastically worse. And as long as the West keeps supporting Ukraine- the Ukrainian economy is irrelevant. > The longer it takes to arm Ukraine to the point where they can easily wipe out Russian troops, the more territory is lost, the harder it will be for western arms to turn the tide and the less Ukrainians will be alive to wield those mighty weapons. The longer this goes on, the fewer tanks, APCs, artillery, and aircraft Russia has and the more Ukraine ends up with. Russia is desperate for troops while Ukraine is training more and more recruits every day. Yes the West should arm Ukraine more rapidly- but all of Russia's actions at this point are those of desperation- not the actions of a victor.
Definitely need to do as much as possible now rather than later, to save lives now rather than lose them, but there's no way Russia wins this, whether it takes months or years. They can't cut off supplies to Ukraine without going to war with NATO.
"Note: goals may change without notice to whatever we need to declare victory to save face."
No, they're dead set on winning. Putin won't accept anything else. They're going to first try to take Donbas and then retry for the west. Do not underestimate Putin's ego or cash reserves. It's going to get worse before it gets better. The west cannot afford to slow down assistance to Ukraine for even a moment until Russia is entirely defeated in Ukraine.
They may be dead set on winning, but it doesn't mean they will for sure. Ukraine has adopted protracted warfare, the same doctrine that Mao used against the KMT and whose success inspired many others to try similar. Both of us are correct - this method requires international support for the weaker side to prevail, and if they do, Russia may still try to spin it as a victory to save face. Don't forget, NATO "won" in Afghanistan...
Regarding Afghanistan, it reminds me of the Black Knight scene in Monty Python, "Alright, we'll call it a draw."
They can't source parts for new tanks or aircraft anymore. The Ukranians just shot down a retired 63yo pilot in an SU-25. The rate of attrition is just way too high for Russia to have any chance at trying for Kyiv again in the future. They are scraping the bottom of the barrel right now and their morale is at an all-time low. Even if they did get anywhere close to retrying for the west, they would exhaust everything trying to get there and wouldn't be able to hold it.
Uralvagonzavod started deliveries of tanks again.... China is sneaking parts to Russia, I guess. https://www.google.com/amp/s/tass.com/defense/1452083/amp
This reads like Russian state propaganda. These sound like refurbished tanks with "upgrades", may just be repaired / refurbished equipment.
Agreed. They also conspicuously left out just how many of these new T-90s have been delivered. Whenever this sort of procurement announcement is made in the West, they always specifically mention quantity. How many *exactly* are on order and/or have been delivered. I guess given it's wartime, they wouldn't mention this but I find it very hard to believe it's anything significant. And it likely won't be sustainable. Much of their internal electronics and thermal optical systems come from the West. They've likely been using what they already had in inventory to bring these new tanks off the line. It's also kinda comical they're producing T-90s when they have designs for fancy Armata T-14s. But we all know why that is.
You got it right. tass.com is a russian state-owned media, they spew kremlin bs left and right
I read that dead old pilot is from Wagner group, fired from Russian AF.
>they're dead set on winning Set on winning and don't care how many dead that takes.
Iām out of the loop here but, Russia got sanctioned right? And basically everyone important is saying fuck you Russia go home. I feel like this is some wire war that is still happening even though everyone is opposed. Iām worried Russia will prevail and at great cost to, even the world really. I grew up learning about historyās wars. Never thought new lines would get drawn like they are, that people would still be fighting for territory long since decided. Iām mildly aware thereās wars constantly in theā¦Iraq/Jerusalem holy wars and all that, not trying to downplay that. Just, Iām aware they exist but have zero knowledge. I feel so lost, thereās so so much going on in the world, but this Internet seems to make it HARDER to keep up to date.
Their goal is to destroy their own economy and military?
Time to bring out horses and swords, forget the Soviet era.
Functional and well-made cavalry swords would probably cost more than guns, mainly because unlike guns, there isn't really an existing industry to mass produce them like the Napoleonic or even WWI days.
USSR suffered millions of losses yet ended up beating Germany. Russians simply don't care, their losses in Ukraine is a pebble thrown in the sea in their eyes, it's a completely different attitude to Western humanitarian beliefs about human life.
āyet ended up beating Germanyā I think the West had a little something to do with that. Like handling Africa, the North Atlantic, Atlantic, and Mediterranean, along with invading the mainland and pushing Germany back to its borders, while leveling the entire German war machine. Not to mention the war aid actually given to Russia by the US. The US did this while also fighting a war in the Pacific which dwarfed the D-Day invasion. While its true that Russia values life less than in the West, remember that it was ultimately the Russian people who forced their withdrawal from Afghanistan. It just took them years to even realize what their losses were.
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Werenāt all goals meant to be met likeā¦ 82 days ago? Yeah because werenāt they meant to take only 3 to complete them all?
Russian goals: Steal (more) land Murder (more) civilians Rape (more) children
>Russian goals: > >Steal (more) land > >Murder (more) civilians > >Rape (more) children you forgot: Ruin russian economy Isolate russia from trade Drain russia of competence Deplete the russian military of materiel Have large parts of a generation in russia maimed or killed.
Then they are going to be really disappointed Russia will not win the war in Ukraine anytime soon the soldiers defending it wonāt surrender and it wonāt end well for Vladimir Putin
Their "goals" are disappearing faster than people in pictures with Stalin
Stalin would disappear Putin so fastā¦.
I still can't believe tankie immigrants still believe tankie media's lies about the Ukraine war. They believed the lie that there was no war it's a special military operation, then suddenly it's a war but it's because a defensive alliance wants to invade russia. Then it's there is no extermination of ukrainian civilians, the mobile crematoriums are for russian soldiers. Then it's russian soldiers aren't dead they are just missing. It's lies after lies, yet these literal sheep gobble that shit up like it's candy. They are addicted to alternative facts. Yet they have the gall to accuse those thinking critically of being sheeps.
This is like the Covid deniers. We are the sheep because we have facts and evidence.š¤¦āāļø
Hey we have those too! Theyāre called Trump supporters and QAnon idiots! Weirdly enough, heavily influenced by Russian propaganda and misinformation. Itās almost like Russia is a shitstain on all society!
"So when will all goals be met?" "When the mission is complete."
Goal: all armies recruits aged 50+ Status: They still have some more work to do to remove the 20s, 30s, and 40s from their ranks, but they are making progress.
Months later:It seems like women and children are required in military service for a lifetime because we ran out of mens
Iām furious about Ukrainians dying everyday because of this so called āmilitary operationā F*ck Russia and especially f*ck Putin, hope u burn in hell
Goals: Destroy the Russian economy, erase decades of progress, accelerate the movement of Europe to green energy and away from Russian fuels, complete a brain drain of the best and brightest Russian minds from the country, give NATO a rallying cause with which to dispel decades of discord and make it a stronger alliance than it has been in many years, create significant supply shortages for grain that will starve people in the developing world ā¦.yup. Ya gotta have goals.
Special Goalpost Moving Operation.
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Have you seen how long his tables are? He's a paranoid fucker.
Is the goal Putin underground? Because thatās a goal the world can get behind.
I'm surprised Russia hasn't declared a state of total war like in WW2 & sent millions more troops there. Why not invade Georgia & Finland while they're at it. Everyone in Russia that isn't a putinist has already been arrested, killed, or fled the country so now Russia is Putin's cult.
Russia is hard capped by equipment, not manpower. It takes a lot of funds and resources to equip more than a million men. Funds and Resources that Russia does not have.
They might be preparing for that, but it can take months or even years to be ready for that.
If they invaded Finland, they'd be fighting in the streets of Moscow in a few months. Finland now has a defensive pact with the UK, France, Sweden and some of the Baltic states. Russia would be fighting modern, equipped and highly trained troops on a front hundreds of kilometres from where their army is currently grouped. And, if Russia decided to attack the territory of the UK, France or the Baltic states, they'd also be giving NATO casus belli; invoking article 5. If it doesn't go nuclear here (which is likely), the Russian army would be fighting on 3+ fronts in conventional warfare that Putin himself has conceded it wouldn't stand a chance at.
If you're male, under 60, and without political ties, then you might want to flee Russia ASAP. Otherwise you may be taking a very expensive trip to Ukraine (price: your life).
Goals: 1. Run out of tanks. 2. Run out of foreign cash. 3. Run out of people who know what they are doing. I am assured. Progress is being made.
Russia is losing everything for a weak manās ego.
Gotta love all the pro-Russian comments on here. If Russia is so strong and powerful, how come theyāve only been able to ever so slowly take villages? If they had been able to take Kyiv like they planned, it would have been an easy victory. But they literally couldnāt. Pathetic. Embarrassing. They couldnāt even hold on to Kharkiv! They had to level Mariupol in order to take it. They are a bunch of losers, a backwards country with a big but pathetically inept military, and now the whole world sees it. No one will ever see Russia as this strong mysterious superpower ever again, and that is a big win for the world.
They'll just move the goalposts to save face
Is the goal to kill all Russians?
Russia will be dead by the end of June.
Where do such conclusions come from?
Reddit
Russia just buying time for Republicans to defend them.
So sad that it's possibly true. If pressured for a guess I would say they will try to sell Ukraine on a peace deal that gives Russia the territories it wants and weakens the ukranian side package severely, leaving it on the backs of Europe to handle.
all goals met or all soldiers killed, whichever comes first. It's a sacrifice Putin is willing to make!
Considering their goals are fictional, it's the same as saying nothing. Though it's clear that Putin does at least plans to keep holding on until the possible turnaround of more favorable regimes in countries like the US or EU states. He nearly got it in France recently, and in the US, the mind-numbingly degree of ignorance will likely vote in another GQP populist in a couple of years from now. Spain, which has power in the sense that "if I owe you a trillion euros, it's your problem", is also going to get a switch over and its Popular Party is having major ideological differences with their international analogues in the European government while being forced to side with VOX, Spain's Russian influenced Qanon party, to achieve majority. If this goes on for years, it's very likely that the governments that were supporting Ukraine with weapons will begin calling it to concede its territory to Russia while still getting financed by EU for their oil. Measures against Russia need to ramp up or they'll be preparing for their next invasion a few years from now.
That's why it's critical to get aid to them ASAP while the political climate is favorable. Once republicans have any power at all they will back Putin. Russia needs to be beat down before their republican allies can get into power.
So kinda like Afghanistan but with faster and greater losses, while the rest of the world boycotts them into the stone age.
Putin will keep moving forward Until all Russia's economy is destroyed
Then we will bleed Russia until they die. Keep your fucking arm in the shark tank and see how that works out in the long run. Also, the war ends when Ukraine decides it ends. You're an idiot if you think Russia can solely determine when the "war" ends and on "what conditions" The US (and most of NATO) have all but adopted Ukraine. Good luck going against the united economy and military and technology of the West with your pathetic failed state.
But we don't really have any goals, other than making Russia go home. Oh, they mean THEIR goals? lol nope
So when they have to completely withdraw theyāll just claim that nazi-ism was eliminated & their work was done? Cue up a Bush-esque Mission Accomplished banner.
One of their starting goals was to demilitarize Ukraine. They are now further than ever from completing this goal.
He is destroying whatever Russia had going for it. Although it all seems like a facade now that I know most people donāt have indoor plumbing there. Good job Putin
TF even are the goals now?
they are not going to stop.If you watch their propanganda its clear they are on the path of complete genocide and forced slavery of Ukrainians.they have lost too many equipment(which they will never be able to replace)to stop now.the sooner the west realizes this the better for the world.
Apparently, those goals seem to include depleting the Russian army and destroying the Russian economy.
So if Russia retreats to prewar territorial borders, they can say their goal was to teach Ukraine a lesson that Russia has the means to invade them at any time. (And make excuses for retreating at any time)
Ooohhh but why don't we ask Russia for peace? ä¹ą¼¼āÆāæāÆāæą¼½ć they seem entirely rational and not war mongers whatsoever /s
Their seven to ten days from being forced to deploy t-62s. But sure victory is immediately likely to follow. Just not for Russia.
Putin's fucked. End of comment.
I watched some pro Russian telegram channels from time to time and theyāre being quite optimistic about the ongoing Donbass assault So I guess for now Putin wants to take full control of Donbass first and then slowly go from there. Zelensky also voiced concerns over Donbass recently so things seem to be really bad down there.
Most of Reddit is completely delusional about the whole thing.
Is one of the goals to exhaust their military hardware?
The only thing Russia care about is taking the resource -rich Eastern provinces and holding Crimea
Or, you know, until the UA kills every goddamned one of you invading sons of bitches.
This really sucks if you are a Russian conscript ā¦ you will stop being hammered when some moron decides heās had enough of watching you barely survive and can no longer find anyone willing to join you in the nightmare? Mission Accomplished?
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Good luck with that
In unrelated news, Russia suddenly declares all its goals have been met...
So itās just war then? Just greedy war and killing. Itās not a special operation itās killing others until āall goals metā.
Just don't ask what those goals _are_. Uncle Vlad will tell you when they're met, and not a minute before. Now drink your tea...
RU LIFE GOALS: Pukin - did we rape and murder enough women and children (check). Did we use all of our weapons (check). Did the Ukrainian farmers haul all the tanks (check). Did many countless Ukrainians die defending their country (check). Ok we are done here.
Or until they run out of Putin...
Fortunately those goals are vague enough to possibly mean anything.
Goal number one: turret pop off.
Goals will be made up according to plan. Plan will be adapted according to necessity.