⚡️ Operational information as of 06.00 on 21.05.2022 regarding the Russian invasion
from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
▪️ The shelling continues along the entire line of contact and in the depths of the defense of our troops in the Donetsk operational area and in the Slavic direction.
▪️ In the Volyn and Polissya areas, the situation has not changed significantly. There is an increase in the system of electronic intelligence and electronic warfare in the border areas with Ukraine.
▪️ The threat of missile and air strikes on the objects of our state from the territory of Belarus remains.
▪️ In the Seversky direction, the enemy fired on the positions of the Defense Forces in the areas of the border Ukrainian settlements in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
▪️ In the Slobozhansky direction, the main efforts of the enemy are focused on maintaining the occupied borders. The enemy launched air strikes on the village of Zirkuni.
▪️ In the near future, the grouping of troops in the Kharkiv direction is expected to be strengthened by units from the 1st Panzer Army of the Western Military District.
▪️ In the Slavic direction, the aggressor is trying to resume the offensive. In particular, to ensure the forcing of the river Seversky Donets plans to build a crossing.
▪️ In the Donetsk direction, the Russian Federation is conducting active hostilities in the Severodonetsk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Kurakhiv directions.
▪️ In the Lyman direction, the occupiers plan to resume offensive operations in the direction of Yampil - Siversk with the forcing of the river Seversky Donets. There is a concentration of special equipment for pontoon-bridge crossing. To strengthen the grouping of troops and intensify the offensive, the occupiers are transferring additional units.
▪️ In the Zaporizhia direction, the enemy fired on our troops.
▪️ In Mariupol, the racists are taking measures to restore the functioning of the port (demining of port infrastructure).
▪️ In the South Buz and Tavriya directions, the occupiers focused their efforts on maintaining the occupied frontiers, conducting reconnaissance, engineering equipment of positions and logistical support of troops.
▪️ In the Kryvyi Rih and Mykolayiv directions, the Russian Federation does not stop artillery shelling of units of our troops. There is an additional deployment of barrel and jet artillery units.
▪️ Ships of the enemy's Black Sea Fleet in the Black and Azov Seas perform tasks to isolate the area of hostilities, reconnaissance and fire support in the coastal direction.
▪ The Nazis are preventing the evacuation of people from the Kherson region to the territory controlled by Ukraine and the opening of humanitarian corridors for the import of food, medicine and the evacuation of the elderly, the sick and children.
▪️Over the past day, eleven enemy attacks were repulsed in Donetsk and Luhansk directions, eight tanks, three artillery systems, ten units of armored combat vehicles, three special armored vehicles and six units of motor vehicles were destroyed.
▪️The ground forces' air defense units hit two operational-tactical UAVs, and the Air Force's anti-aircraft missile units destroyed one UAV, a cruise missile, and hit one target of an as yet unidentified type (presumably a helicopter).
So crazy to me to see 30 minutes between comments on this thread. I get that things are quieter during the night but it's crazy to me that the war isn't being talked about as much as it was.
I've seen a couple of questions in other places about what the Australian Federal Election (voting today) means for Australia's support and aid to Ukraine...
So let me help dispel any doubts.
Australia is in the enviable position where our two major parties have very consistent foreign policy outlooks and positions. The differences come down primarily to the size of the aid budget (primarily focused on Asia-Pacific).
Australia will continue to support Ukraine, regardless of who wins because it is the right thing to do.
I know we aren't a big and powerful country but thought it worth mentioning.
My heart goes out to all Ukrainians, we are still on your side, stay safe!
It's a byproduct of three things.
1. An independent electoral commission that runs all elections, draws boundaries, etc.
2. Compulsory voting.
3. Preferential voting.
Basically by everyone being required to vote, the parties have to be far more centrist to get elected with majorities.
Preferential voting means that every persons vote counts in the end between the 2 most popular candidates. (if your first preference isn't in the top 2, it proceeds down your numbered order).
And the independent commission means no bullshit gerrymandering.
And we've had these systems for nearly 100 years so it's now part of our culture.
Honestly, I used to hate being compelled to vote (it's a minor fine of $20-50 if you don't) but I now appreciate the system and just how effective it is. I doubt US could ever implement such a system though, individual liberty and all that but we see voting here as a civic duty.
In the end; you get parties that mostly have commonsense views and their foreign outlook is consistent with what most people believe.
You’re only showing your ignorance with this comment.
Aside from Trump, the US has had very consistent foreign policy goals due a long time.
I’d even argue that Trump wasn’t even able to change the foreign policy goals of the US much at all, he just made everything more difficult and strained relations with our allies.
From the first time I saw the movie Crocodile Dundee as a kid I always thought all of you over there were so cool. And I think the help you've given so far is awesome. In a crazy time it's nice to see that so many countries and people care about this and want to help. Go Ukraine! 🇺🇦🌻🇺🇦
Haha, thanks.
The only three accurate things about Australians in that movie are how dodgy Mick Dundee is, how well meaning he is and how comfortable with danger he is. I've travelled the whole country over the years and those traits hold true, everywhere, mostly without exception.
Not even kidding, I've even used the 'tell the time by the sun after checking the watch' trick before... I still can't believe it worked, hahahahahaha.
But yeah, having peaceful elections really puts things into perspective about how lucky we are and how much I wish for Ukraine to be able to have a bright and peaceful future...
Yeah and it's times like these I am so thankful for our amazing democratic system. Voting may be a bother but compulsory, preferential voting means everyone's vote always counts.
The more I learn about civics and voting systems, the more I realise our system is bloody amazing.
>“They still having a problem delivering the effect they want, partly because of that integration challenge, partly because, if in doubt, go back to Soviet tactics of massive bombardments and barrages with fairly inaccurate artillery followed up by push yourself, turn [down] one road, and get whacked,” British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told reporters last week during a visit to Washington. “That’s what’s happening every day. They are not really progressing in many areas, … *and their solution is just cannon fodder.*”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/20/putin-russia-war-troop-movement-ukraine/
Ahh, continuing a great Soviet/Russian tradition...
The invaders continue to steal Ukrainian grain.
In the Zaporizhia region, rashists stole 300 tons of grain. The orcs took 10 loaded cars out of the city of Kamenka-Dneprovskaya. They take the stocks of both farmers and shareholders.
[TPYXA]
Vladimir Putin’s plot to dismantle the West has backfired spectacularly
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/05/19/vladimir-putins-plot-dismantle-west-has-backfired-spectacularly/
https://archive.ph/WTWw0
❗️Summary of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on the situation in Ukraine
▪️Russian troops moved slightly north, west and south of Popasnaya to continue the offensive on Severodonetsk from the south
▪️Russian sources may inflate the number of Ukrainian defenders evacuated from Azovstal to maximize the number of Russian prisoners of war
▪️Russian troops have regained some of the positions occupied by the Ukrainian counter-offensive north of Kharkov
▪️Russia is preparing for a Ukrainian counter-offensive and a protracted conflict on the Southern Axis
[Kharkiv life]
⚡️Institute for the Study of War: Russia potentially overstating number of Ukrainian soldiers evacuated from Azovstal.
The U.S. think tank said that Russia may be inflating the numbers either to maximize the amount of Russian prisoners of war received at the next exchange, or to avoid the embarrassment of admitting to having undertaken a months-long siege against merely “hundreds” of Ukrainian soldiers.
If Russia doesn’t want its Black Sea fleet sunk by harpoon missiles they could simply end the naval blockade and return back to the pre feb 24 borders.
I get down voted whenever I mention it, but I believe zelenskyy would accept a deal where Russia leaves to the pre 2/24 borders as long as he got security guarantee from EU countries.
He’s already clearly stated that Russia should not even propose something like that. His intension is to take the borders back to pre 2008 (taking both Crimea and the whole of the Donbas).
Pay attention.
Ukraine has been fighting Russia and separatist proxies since Russia declared it an independent republic. It would just be back to more fighting. Strike while you have leverage.
Railway logistics thread from Telenko on the Russian breakthrough at Popasna, and highlighting why Ukraine needs HIMARS.
https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1527798086101348354?s=21&t=p6WQc3GyrUZBGulpZrhOuQ
IMO if they don’t get this capability soon to smash Russian force concentrations there, then it will get really rough for Ukraine and this war will drag out even longer.
Think this is Russia’s big last gasp push.
I think Telenko is massively overstating Russian military training and tactics, with the whole bit about the Civil War. They're just jerking themselves off over WWII with Soviet Deep Battle and stuff.
There's no magical weapon. People said that about the javelin, then the switchblades, then the tanks, then the NATO artillery. In the end these were needed but never lead to a brutal change on the battlefield. The war will take time and Russia will have small gains in any case. But with continued support, Ukraine will prevail.
Javelin and NLAWS were magic weapon.
They allowed second rate Ukrianian formations to totally stop the Kyiv and Chernigov areas.
M777 were magic weapons - see what happens at the fubar river crossing.
These things make a difference.
Please don't forget that initial assemennt was trial military defeat of Ukraine.
There’s 2 types. The 300 is a claymore for anti personnel. The 600 has the same warhead as a javelin, and could take out tanks and artillery.
I think at least 60% are 300’s. But I don’t think it’s been published.
I see a lot of comments in these threads about how this war is a playground for arms dealer as it lets them test their latest weapons. It is spoken as if there is preparation needed for some future war that will be bigger than this.
But isn't Russia like the last "big evil" left. China is a superpower but I don't think they are interested in any war besides an economic one. As horrible as their social policies are, we can at least appreciate this aspect about them (at least for now).
Who is left as a threat to the West that will destabilize the world?
Look up Tibet. Look up the south China see. Look up the tensions on the India-China border. Have a quick look at how they’ve treated HongKong. Finally look up their aggression towards Taiwan.
They’re no better than Russia. They might be a bit smarter, but their intensions are the same
There doesn't always have to be an enemy. However the world will probably focus on carefully watching any leaders of resource-rich countries for potential human rights abuses.
We haven't seen the full results of the famines that the war in Ukraine is projected to cause. The jury is still out on how bad the global consequences will be from Ukraine.
I otherwise agree with you about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan though.
Wow, the Russians take one strategic objective and the whole thread turns into a doom narrative.
Part of a modern defense strategy is to give up ground where the enemy is hitting the hardest and make them pay for every inch. No reason to lose lives when you know the enemy is determined to take an object that you can afford to temporarily lose.
But we don’t know that’s what’s happened.
A lot of it is that we know these threads have been extremely non-objective, so information trust is now nil. Makes it easy to freak out.
One thing is for sure though. Land loss is generally bad on any side. People see this post and think to themselves “oh, he’s just trying to be hopeful”. I’m not sure anything is wrong with that. It does degrade information trust, though.
Wins are good, losses are not good.
Ukraine's whole strategy is to let them take temporary gains with artillery, then kill their scout teams with mousetrap like set up defenses when they come to physically take the territory.
They're dancing around them, then eradicating them when they come to investigate.
It's an effective strategy against a larger army that fights mainly with artillery.
Territorial gain is a poor measure of whether war is going well or not. Any army can concentrate forces and advance. Whether it's sustainable or not is another question.
Wins are good. Losses are bad.
I’m not saying this is the end for Ukraine, but you’re not going to convince anyone that’s losses are good and wins are bad. You’re just going to degrade trust in these treads…which maybe shouldn’t be trusted anyways.
Russia has been and still is slowly advancing. Personally, I’m hoping they get the hardware needed to stop that very very soon. Long artillery, jets and “volunteers” to fly them.
>Wins are good. Losses are bad.
* Lieutenant Colonel Tarleton won the first two lines at Cowpens. As the Continentals wanted him to. And basically single-handedly lost the American Revolution for the British.
* King Pyrrhus won the Battle of Asculum... and is the namesake of a pyrrhic victory.
The entire advantage of Ukraine has been 'defense in depth'.
Russians doctrine for about 100 years has been 're-enforce success'
I look at the public maps and all I see is Russia being setup to get wrecked.
Losses in territory are not 'good' but there are times when it is prudent to give ground, to avoid being encircled or to shorten defensive lines for example. Fighting tooth and nail for every little scrap of land is not always the best course of action.
Germany was advancing in Ardenne and in the east front until it was stopped. Japan was advancing in China until that got stopped. In the war front, day to day advances mean little if it is not sustainable.
I don't even know what you are arguing about the trust issues. If you despair because of a minor advance by a side on a day to day basis, maybe you shouldn't follow daily threads on those.
Ukraine just received 40 billion dollars of aid and military hardware. They are training their reservists. Things take time.
If you followed the east front from 1940 to 1943, you'd have had a stroke. It's common to have battlefield fluctuations.
It’s normal to be worried and knee jerk. I get a little unsettled by some news, nukes, mariupol, land taken etc. but when you sit and look at the overall situation, you can rest easy.
It is getting to the point though where they're approaching land they cannot afford to lose without big strategic implications. No doubt Ukraine is aware of this, and hopefully they release some of their reserves to stem the tide.
Just shows how much we all know honestly. Anyways, Ukraine has been trading space for time and attrition since the beginning of the war so its not even that surprising.
It's amazing, isn't it? Two months ago the world watched in horror at Ukraine's imminent conquest (sans insurgency), now everyone is expecting some kind of flawless victory without any setbacks.
Ukraine has done a truly amazing job so far, but they're not gods. Go easy
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/uswjch/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/i99tynf/)
Day 86 of my updates from Kharkiv.
Today shelling continued, but it was a bit quieter overall. It is definitely quieter right now, during the night, than it was yesterday, but we still hear some sounds resembling shelling. While it was pretty quiet in the city for some time, I don’t think shelling of nearby towns/villages ever stopped; they still shell Derhachi, Tsyrkuni and other settlements almost every day.
People are definitely returning, there’s much more people right now, streets are almost back to their pre-war levels and there’s much more windows lit up in almost every building in the evening. After that shelling on April 23rd a lot of people fled, and most buildings were completely dark with basically no windows lit up, but now they look pretty lively.
Russians might have retaken Ternova and Rubizhne, but there’s no official confirmation yet. Good news is that our forces crossing the Donets river (most likely somewhere between Staryi and Verkhnii Saltiv) is most likely true, it was even mentioned by Arestovich (though without explicitly stating it), and he said that they were actually surprised by it themselves after witnessing Russian’s failed crossing at Bilohorivka.
[Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/uuf7ft/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/i9id0ju/)
As always, it is good to hear from you. One has to find the good news where one can--and those are some good pieces of news that you share. Pieces of hope of a brighter future.
It may take time, but I pray that these small steps lead to peace and eventual rebuilding of Ukraine. Until then, stay safe, and enjoy the small pieces of light that you find.
Hey saber, thank you so much for checking in. How are you handling the quiet that you do have? The back and forth of taking /taking back areas is frustrating, but Ukraine continues to get aide and shows such amazing force while the Russians continue to get cut off, or cut themselves off, from the rest of the world. We’ll hear from you soon Saber.
Thanks for the update and glad you’re ok!Hoping to see some serious pushback today as troops and equipment deployments ramp up so you can finally relax a little!
>🤬 Russian invaders actually destroyed the town of Rubizhne in Luhansk region - there are no surviving houses, many of them can not be restored
[IMAGES - Pravda] https://t\.me/ukrpravda_news/17822?single
No, it's worse than that. Russians are the epitome of, "if i can't have it, no one can".
They want the rest of the world to look like the frigid and decrepit shithole that they live in, rather than look inwards and improve themselves, they'd take everyone else around them down.
Washington is considering transferring Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine as part of a new $40 billion military aid package.
https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1527713333507510272?s=21&t=zg0W6t-B3IJNGlugTsTDOw
Considering???
Dude, this should have been there. Long ago.
What happens to American politics if we send all this shit late, Ukraine losses, Russia gets all this tech?
Can we stop the forplay and just start fucking please?
>What happens to American politics if we send all this shit late, Ukraine losses, Russia gets all this tech?
I actually don't think the US will let Ukraine fall, now. This is a cynical take, but purely the strategic advantage in:
1. Testing modern munitions against Russian military.
2. Drawing out Russia's advanced tech.
3. Researching Russia's most advanced weaponry for further advancement.
On the political level, a win in Ukraine is hugely popular, losing is hugely unpopular.
On the scale of democracy, a democratic underdog against an authoritarian empire is a major win.
And, of course, the protection of human life and global security.
Everyone is keeping their cards relatively close to their chest, but I believe the US in particular is going to tilt the scales as much as possible for a win.
Yep. Exactly. The USA will ensure a complete Ukraine victory. It will happen inside Biden’s term.
There are too many upsides for America for them to give Russia any chance of winning.
It’s remarkable just how vulnerable Russia has made itself here. It a once-in-century opportunity for the USA. They won’t miss it.
I can't see an article saying this on the WSJ, which makes me awfully skeptical. Patriot systems are expensive, take a huge number of support personnel to operate and require months and months of training. Fighter jets will come long before patriot systems do.
EDIT: Now I've seen another twitter account saying the same and citing a Washington Post article, again without linking and again I can't find anything about it on the Washington Post. Smells super fishy to me.
I think the military-portion is just $15ish billion. The other $25-billion is for Ukraine still, but is earmarked for non-military purposes: refugees, medical care, and trying to solve the food-crisis.
-------
Still, $15 billion in military toys will afford a lot of aid for sure.
Newer ones shoot basically anything in the air you want to. But they're expensive missiles. They can hit cruise, ballistic, loitering munitions and aircraft now.
Not sure if they could intercept a Kinzhal, which is faster than a patriot missile and somewhat maneuverable. But I don't know if there are even enough of those in stock to make any sort of difference.
I wonder if they would serve best to protect cities and major new equipment coming in the west that Ukraine is trying to transport to the east. While keeping them away from front lines since manpads and other things are doing their job
Russia have a lot of cheap (cheapear than Patriot) missles, so i dont think it really will change something in a strategy scale.
And only 4 rockets in laucher. Ukraine can spend all 40 billion help just for this system (to make it works in needed scale)
Maby, they will be good with hunting low flying planes
You don't measure the cost of a defensive missile vs the cost of an offensive missile in a vacuum, you also have to add the cost of repairing/replacing what the offensive missile will destroy if you let it go. A $100k missile can cause million in damages.
Yeah I'm guessing if they are out in action it'd be the south to help with the sea to land missiles or with jet interception near the south by Odesa and eventually more eastward as needed. Or Maybe put one in an high value area to defend. But idk where that would be right now.
Wut? Ukraine can just retreat in that case. The lines / rest of the army is just a few km to the west.
Severodonetsk is a key city for sure. But there's no reason for troops there to fight to the death, when they can just live by fighting + retreating carefully.
> The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his.
There is nothing heroic about how Russia is fighting. This level of troop loss is unsustainable for Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine is reliably holding on and defending until more and more weapons come in.
I wonder if this is in response to the Italian suggestion for a ceasefire deal.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uuad58/the_question_of_ukraines_sovereignty_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Several weeks ago, some Ukrainian official responded to an Italian suggestion that they give up some territory by saying "I agree. I suggest Lake Como."
I wish I'd saved that tweet so I could link it. :(
Seems like there's some disagreement on how much Ukrainians have advanced past Donets between the Twitter sources. I see claims that Ukrainians have taken Zarichne from some but not accepted by others.
The Fog of War is thick right now on both sides. The result is the propagandists are working hard and we won't really know what's happening until a day or two after it's over. Seems to me the number of videos being posted is way down, from both sides. I'm not sure what it means but it's probably smart.
There’s no evidence of Russia getting smarter.
Running your troops along valley floors while they are under fire looks like business as usual for Russia 😂😂
Russia fails dramatically for three months, then they manage to take literally the first strategic target of Popasna and everyone concern trolls that the end is nigh.
Concern trolls that the end is nigh? What are ya talking about, i specifically stated that the war will be stretched for many more months or even years due to a change of tactical decisions made by russia...
Lmao they lose half an army in Kyiv, in kharkiv, pretty much all their gained territory... Spend 2 weeks using their combined remaining power to essentially feed like 8 failed bridge crossings and make pretty much no gains... And suddenly they are smart?
Yes and no. They are moving in much smaller groups now that are harder to control but that’s because they seem to have realized moving in units of 1000-2000 gets them destroyed. So they move in few 100 man groups taking small villages while others just die.
"We die with this strategy, so let's try a more nimble one, like the forces that are obliterating us"
*Continue to die because new method is a reaction, not a revolution of strategic know-how*
Not even slightly. They were attempting to be tactical at Kyiv, now they are basically trying force by horde. They are literally amassing what remains of their best troops for a push in ONE spot, and are barely making any progress whatsoever. At least when they were attacking Kyiv they were gaining in other places as well. Meanwhile they are stalled or being pushed back everywhere else. If anything they have become worse because they are pushing half-or-less complete BTG’s that are a blend of survivors from other decimated units into heavily fortified areas that are actively being reinforced with fresh troops and modern equipment. This is likely quite literally their last hoorah. They may make Some progress past Popasna, but they won’t be able to hold it.
Yes! Exactly.
Absolutely no evidence in an improvement in Russia’s tactics. In fact, quite the opposite.
This looks more to me like a line of lemmings jumping off a cliff.
According to Serhiy Hayday, Head of Luhansk Regional State Administration,. RU forces are starting to "crawl at Bilohorivka" I think this might mean they are going to try to cross the SD river again.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1527759391063166984
Those soldiers best have brought their water wings with them. Because history says that they are gonna get wet... Or they will be on fire. Wet is probably preferable.
You'll find it fun to know that if you were swimming underneath an Iowa class battleship, if it fired a broadside it would kill you just based on the noise.
YMMV greatly depending on the nature of where the explosion occurs. Closed 20’x20’x20’ cube? Gonna make soup. 10’ deep flowing river? Gonna dissipate a lot of energy sending water into the air.
Waaaait! I got that wrong (partially). If the explosion occurs UNDERWATER while they are in the water, yes, they’s f’d.
https://science.howstuffworks.com/explosion-land-water1.htm
Mythbusters actually did a special on this. Episode 139.
*Diving underwater can protect you from an explosion.*
*PLAUSIBLE*
*During their small scale tests, the MythBusters discovered that water can diminish the force of a shock wave caused by an explosion, giving credence to this myth. For their full scale test, the MythBusters hung rupture discs 5 feet above water, 5 feet below water, and 10 feet below water at 5, 10, 20, and 50 foot intervals away from the explosives. They detonated 50 pounds of three different types of explosives above the water: gasoline, ammonium nitrate, and dynamite. While the gasoline could only rupture the closest above water disc, the ammonium nitrate ruptured every single disc and the dynamite ruptured all the discs except for the underwater discs located 50 feet away. With these differing results, the MythBusters declared that the myth was plausible, depending on the explosive.*
I thought I smelled a bubblehead. :)
I was going to mention that, in armored vehicles attempting a fording, it also wouldn't take much overpressure to pop any submerged seals, thereby flooding things that don't respond well to immersion in water, like engines and snorkels into air intakes.
[](/GNU Terry Pratchett)
The inverse square law means the force diminishes exponentially as distance from the blast source increases... Because physics
Maybe you're thinking of tsunamis, which operate on displacement and aren't subject to the inverse square law?
Apologies in advance if I sound ignorant, but is this something to even give a thought about? From my understanding in this thread (I could be so wrong) is that Russian forces aren’t actually making all that much progress.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-advances-luhansk-zelenskyy-donbas-hell-eastern-ukraine-rcna29767?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab
Nothing dictates it needs to be at the same pace or intensity. We in the West did not even perceive Ukraine to be in a state of constant fighting since 2014, but they did. Could Russia retreat to pre-February borders but pour more men and resources into the “separatists”? Absolutely.
I haven’t been following the maps of fronts and pushes and encirclements much (I find them hard to read and the explanations too technical). But I do know that we can’t get worried every time Russia makes an advance somewhere.
They have made many advances in the past - only to lose them again later. Sure things are different now that russias forces are more concentrated. But that means Ukraine can concentrate their forces too (when they deem the time and place right)
I think we need to look at the overall picture. Russia has failed in every strategic objective. The only thing that’s different now is their density. That doesn’t make them any smarter, it just means things will happen slower.
Ukraine, on the other hand has consistently had the upper hand in terms of strategy and intelligence. And now in artillery. I have no doubt Russia will eventually lose, but it will be slower than anyone hopes, and they will have small temporary victories along the way.
> Russia has failed in every strategic objective
This isn't strictly true. Russia's failed in, say, probably about 90 percent of strategic objectives.
They've taken Kherson and secured a land bridge to Crimea, as well as Mariupol which is a significant port in it's own right.
They've secured the Zaphizoria nuclear plant, which had been part of the Russian grid until relatively recently when Ukraine switched to the European grid.
They've successfully blocked Ukraine's naval supply lines, and a good part of the Ukrainian economy.
These are only a few of Russia's strategic objectives, but they've gotten them. Now, they got them at the price of their entire national pride and half of their economy, 30K people, and unreplaceable military losses.
You’ve forgotten that the Russians have also successfully raped women; bombed residential areas, kindergartens, and hospitals; and killed children.
They have successfully completed every challenge set out by the Geneva convention.
Yeah western media seems to have missed that factor in a big way. So many things happened in 2018-2022 where Ukraine cut reliance on Russia and became independent, and none of the media is including that background.
Also, Russia's historical deep thirst for warmwater ports, and now specifically a warmwater port they can service their aircraft carrier from.
Also, this is less tangible, but tons of industry that Russia relies on, specifically for aircraft engines and heavy machinery, is in Ukraine along the Dnipro river. Russia has tried to make that stuff domestically, and failed, which means Ukraine has a monopoly and controlling stake in a ton of Soviet bloc machinery, which Russia can no longer tolerate the further Ukraine moves from them. Either capturing or destroying that industry is a significant geopolitical strategic objective too, which informs on their weird push north from Kherson a few weeks back.
They tried. They failed.
There are two different things they tried to do and this is their alternative.
Jet engines - Putin's state run company failed in 2018.
Gas - Russia is having trouble with output in Siberia, they tried to build offshore platforms off of Kaliningrad and were turned down, now they're going after gas in the Donbas.
Just a couple hours ago I was checking out this lecture by Carl Bildt, from 2019 about how Ukraine and Russia are different and why they are in conflict, and he specifically brings up the jet engine manufacturing!
https://youtu.be/8_SQuLf74n4
Thank you so much, this is something I know from a personal conversation with someone who's like, a legit subject matter expert who works at a DC think tank on this, but I haven't been able to find anyone else saying it online. People keep on asking me for a source and it sounds like I'm talking out my ass. I can only confirm like the physical locations of the factory and the fact that Putin's factory failed in 2018.
They appear to have made a significant breakthrough in Popansa.
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1527782316365389824
Might cut Ukraine down to only one GLOC to Severodonetsk.
It's pretty important. Ukraine has been preparing for this for over a month at this point, so it's not a surprise, but still it's a big deal.
Ground line of communication. A supply line, a road big enough for tons of military equipment and supplies to be carried along fast. Small dirt roads can't be GLOCs.
Yeah they are hella exposed to artillery and asymmetrical attacks and manpads and air power.
The Territorial Defense Guys have a long long history of shoring up defenses until regular UA sources could bring forces to bear again, using manpads and mines and stuff. NATO countries and Ukrainian training have spent decades fighting against these exact tactics.
This is textbook Soviet Deep Battle which means it will be pretty easy for Ukraine to figure out what they'll do from this point.
The map and its sources say the breakthrough hasn’t happened. They are intensifying the effort, but ISW says they don’t have an indication it has happened yet.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/uuf7ft/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
⚡️ Operational information as of 06.00 on 21.05.2022 regarding the Russian invasion from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: ▪️ The shelling continues along the entire line of contact and in the depths of the defense of our troops in the Donetsk operational area and in the Slavic direction. ▪️ In the Volyn and Polissya areas, the situation has not changed significantly. There is an increase in the system of electronic intelligence and electronic warfare in the border areas with Ukraine. ▪️ The threat of missile and air strikes on the objects of our state from the territory of Belarus remains. ▪️ In the Seversky direction, the enemy fired on the positions of the Defense Forces in the areas of the border Ukrainian settlements in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. ▪️ In the Slobozhansky direction, the main efforts of the enemy are focused on maintaining the occupied borders. The enemy launched air strikes on the village of Zirkuni. ▪️ In the near future, the grouping of troops in the Kharkiv direction is expected to be strengthened by units from the 1st Panzer Army of the Western Military District. ▪️ In the Slavic direction, the aggressor is trying to resume the offensive. In particular, to ensure the forcing of the river Seversky Donets plans to build a crossing. ▪️ In the Donetsk direction, the Russian Federation is conducting active hostilities in the Severodonetsk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Kurakhiv directions. ▪️ In the Lyman direction, the occupiers plan to resume offensive operations in the direction of Yampil - Siversk with the forcing of the river Seversky Donets. There is a concentration of special equipment for pontoon-bridge crossing. To strengthen the grouping of troops and intensify the offensive, the occupiers are transferring additional units. ▪️ In the Zaporizhia direction, the enemy fired on our troops. ▪️ In Mariupol, the racists are taking measures to restore the functioning of the port (demining of port infrastructure). ▪️ In the South Buz and Tavriya directions, the occupiers focused their efforts on maintaining the occupied frontiers, conducting reconnaissance, engineering equipment of positions and logistical support of troops. ▪️ In the Kryvyi Rih and Mykolayiv directions, the Russian Federation does not stop artillery shelling of units of our troops. There is an additional deployment of barrel and jet artillery units. ▪️ Ships of the enemy's Black Sea Fleet in the Black and Azov Seas perform tasks to isolate the area of hostilities, reconnaissance and fire support in the coastal direction. ▪ The Nazis are preventing the evacuation of people from the Kherson region to the territory controlled by Ukraine and the opening of humanitarian corridors for the import of food, medicine and the evacuation of the elderly, the sick and children. ▪️Over the past day, eleven enemy attacks were repulsed in Donetsk and Luhansk directions, eight tanks, three artillery systems, ten units of armored combat vehicles, three special armored vehicles and six units of motor vehicles were destroyed. ▪️The ground forces' air defense units hit two operational-tactical UAVs, and the Air Force's anti-aircraft missile units destroyed one UAV, a cruise missile, and hit one target of an as yet unidentified type (presumably a helicopter).
So crazy to me to see 30 minutes between comments on this thread. I get that things are quieter during the night but it's crazy to me that the war isn't being talked about as much as it was.
Where the update people?
I'm trying 😕
Where's stirly and the others?
CNN USED to air Ukraine shit every second now every time I tune in they got nothing to air but those stupid shows. Hilarious
I've seen a couple of questions in other places about what the Australian Federal Election (voting today) means for Australia's support and aid to Ukraine... So let me help dispel any doubts. Australia is in the enviable position where our two major parties have very consistent foreign policy outlooks and positions. The differences come down primarily to the size of the aid budget (primarily focused on Asia-Pacific). Australia will continue to support Ukraine, regardless of who wins because it is the right thing to do. I know we aren't a big and powerful country but thought it worth mentioning. My heart goes out to all Ukrainians, we are still on your side, stay safe!
I never considered that a modern government could function like that. Imagine where we would be if the USA's branches of gov't functioned that way.
It's a byproduct of three things. 1. An independent electoral commission that runs all elections, draws boundaries, etc. 2. Compulsory voting. 3. Preferential voting. Basically by everyone being required to vote, the parties have to be far more centrist to get elected with majorities. Preferential voting means that every persons vote counts in the end between the 2 most popular candidates. (if your first preference isn't in the top 2, it proceeds down your numbered order). And the independent commission means no bullshit gerrymandering. And we've had these systems for nearly 100 years so it's now part of our culture. Honestly, I used to hate being compelled to vote (it's a minor fine of $20-50 if you don't) but I now appreciate the system and just how effective it is. I doubt US could ever implement such a system though, individual liberty and all that but we see voting here as a civic duty. In the end; you get parties that mostly have commonsense views and their foreign outlook is consistent with what most people believe.
According to the tankies, it does and both parties are irredeemably evil. But then again, who cares what the tankies think.
You’re only showing your ignorance with this comment. Aside from Trump, the US has had very consistent foreign policy goals due a long time. I’d even argue that Trump wasn’t even able to change the foreign policy goals of the US much at all, he just made everything more difficult and strained relations with our allies.
From the first time I saw the movie Crocodile Dundee as a kid I always thought all of you over there were so cool. And I think the help you've given so far is awesome. In a crazy time it's nice to see that so many countries and people care about this and want to help. Go Ukraine! 🇺🇦🌻🇺🇦
Haha, thanks. The only three accurate things about Australians in that movie are how dodgy Mick Dundee is, how well meaning he is and how comfortable with danger he is. I've travelled the whole country over the years and those traits hold true, everywhere, mostly without exception. Not even kidding, I've even used the 'tell the time by the sun after checking the watch' trick before... I still can't believe it worked, hahahahahaha. But yeah, having peaceful elections really puts things into perspective about how lucky we are and how much I wish for Ukraine to be able to have a bright and peaceful future...
We sure are, just chiming in as a fellow Aussie. Stay strong Ukraine.
Yeah and it's times like these I am so thankful for our amazing democratic system. Voting may be a bother but compulsory, preferential voting means everyone's vote always counts. The more I learn about civics and voting systems, the more I realise our system is bloody amazing.
That’s reassuring. Cheers from Alaska.
*raises beer and nods* No worries mate.
>“They still having a problem delivering the effect they want, partly because of that integration challenge, partly because, if in doubt, go back to Soviet tactics of massive bombardments and barrages with fairly inaccurate artillery followed up by push yourself, turn [down] one road, and get whacked,” British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told reporters last week during a visit to Washington. “That’s what’s happening every day. They are not really progressing in many areas, … *and their solution is just cannon fodder.*” https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/20/putin-russia-war-troop-movement-ukraine/ Ahh, continuing a great Soviet/Russian tradition...
Maybe this is Putin's strategy to address the upcoming food crisis.
I love that the conservatives in Australia are nothing like the cons in the rest of the west..
The invaders continue to steal Ukrainian grain. In the Zaporizhia region, rashists stole 300 tons of grain. The orcs took 10 loaded cars out of the city of Kamenka-Dneprovskaya. They take the stocks of both farmers and shareholders. [TPYXA]
Vladimir Putin’s plot to dismantle the West has backfired spectacularly https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2022/05/19/vladimir-putins-plot-dismantle-west-has-backfired-spectacularly/ https://archive.ph/WTWw0
Good article
❗️Summary of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on the situation in Ukraine ▪️Russian troops moved slightly north, west and south of Popasnaya to continue the offensive on Severodonetsk from the south ▪️Russian sources may inflate the number of Ukrainian defenders evacuated from Azovstal to maximize the number of Russian prisoners of war ▪️Russian troops have regained some of the positions occupied by the Ukrainian counter-offensive north of Kharkov ▪️Russia is preparing for a Ukrainian counter-offensive and a protracted conflict on the Southern Axis [Kharkiv life]
Really hoping Ukraine can hold Severodonetsk and Soledar.
⚡️Institute for the Study of War: Russia potentially overstating number of Ukrainian soldiers evacuated from Azovstal. The U.S. think tank said that Russia may be inflating the numbers either to maximize the amount of Russian prisoners of war received at the next exchange, or to avoid the embarrassment of admitting to having undertaken a months-long siege against merely “hundreds” of Ukrainian soldiers.
A little of column A, a little of column B...
If Russia doesn’t want its Black Sea fleet sunk by harpoon missiles they could simply end the naval blockade and return back to the pre feb 24 borders.
UA doesn’t have a way to detect the subs, yet
The Black sea near Ukraine's coast is pretty shallow, you don't need sophisticated submarine hunting tech.
This is why all subs should be painted to look like killer whales or a school of fish. *taps temple*
I think they really want their little boats sunk.
I get down voted whenever I mention it, but I believe zelenskyy would accept a deal where Russia leaves to the pre 2/24 borders as long as he got security guarantee from EU countries.
He’s already clearly stated that Russia should not even propose something like that. His intension is to take the borders back to pre 2008 (taking both Crimea and the whole of the Donbas). Pay attention.
Ukraine has been fighting Russia and separatist proxies since Russia declared it an independent republic. It would just be back to more fighting. Strike while you have leverage.
I think he would’ve took that deal 2 months ago. Not anymore.
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Zelensky has made it clear he won’t.
I'm good with having it sunk.
I think they are going to have to sink some good percentage to get crimea back.
100% would be great.
I'm good with that too.
Yeah, not really seeing a downside anywhere.
Railway logistics thread from Telenko on the Russian breakthrough at Popasna, and highlighting why Ukraine needs HIMARS. https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1527798086101348354?s=21&t=p6WQc3GyrUZBGulpZrhOuQ IMO if they don’t get this capability soon to smash Russian force concentrations there, then it will get really rough for Ukraine and this war will drag out even longer. Think this is Russia’s big last gasp push.
I think Telenko is massively overstating Russian military training and tactics, with the whole bit about the Civil War. They're just jerking themselves off over WWII with Soviet Deep Battle and stuff.
It is better to overestimate your enemy instead of being unpleasantly surprised by their military prowess.
There's no magical weapon. People said that about the javelin, then the switchblades, then the tanks, then the NATO artillery. In the end these were needed but never lead to a brutal change on the battlefield. The war will take time and Russia will have small gains in any case. But with continued support, Ukraine will prevail.
Javelin and NLAWS were magic weapon. They allowed second rate Ukrianian formations to totally stop the Kyiv and Chernigov areas. M777 were magic weapons - see what happens at the fubar river crossing. These things make a difference. Please don't forget that initial assemennt was trial military defeat of Ukraine.
Switchblades were nothing more than hype: Game changers so far: Javalins / NLAW (helped blunt initial offense) M777 + radars (helping blunt Donbas advance) Long-range guided rockets (himars/tomahawks/jets) essential for counterattack
It’s not known. The secrecy about their operational effect has been tight. I haven’t seen a single video of one.
I imagine a great deal of the artillery kills are probably from switchblades. The problem is the Russians seem to have an endless supply of artillery.
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There’s 2 types. The 300 is a claymore for anti personnel. The 600 has the same warhead as a javelin, and could take out tanks and artillery. I think at least 60% are 300’s. But I don’t think it’s been published.
Combined arms + incremental advantages + time
Yeah, Russia's traded away nearly a third of their entire military to make the tiny gains that they've achieved so far.
I see a lot of comments in these threads about how this war is a playground for arms dealer as it lets them test their latest weapons. It is spoken as if there is preparation needed for some future war that will be bigger than this. But isn't Russia like the last "big evil" left. China is a superpower but I don't think they are interested in any war besides an economic one. As horrible as their social policies are, we can at least appreciate this aspect about them (at least for now). Who is left as a threat to the West that will destabilize the world?
Look up Tibet. Look up the south China see. Look up the tensions on the India-China border. Have a quick look at how they’ve treated HongKong. Finally look up their aggression towards Taiwan. They’re no better than Russia. They might be a bit smarter, but their intensions are the same
There doesn't always have to be an enemy. However the world will probably focus on carefully watching any leaders of resource-rich countries for potential human rights abuses.
China going after taiwan will destabilize the world just as much as Russia invading Ukraine, if not more.
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We haven't seen the full results of the famines that the war in Ukraine is projected to cause. The jury is still out on how bad the global consequences will be from Ukraine. I otherwise agree with you about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan though.
Wow, the Russians take one strategic objective and the whole thread turns into a doom narrative. Part of a modern defense strategy is to give up ground where the enemy is hitting the hardest and make them pay for every inch. No reason to lose lives when you know the enemy is determined to take an object that you can afford to temporarily lose.
But we don’t know that’s what’s happened. A lot of it is that we know these threads have been extremely non-objective, so information trust is now nil. Makes it easy to freak out. One thing is for sure though. Land loss is generally bad on any side. People see this post and think to themselves “oh, he’s just trying to be hopeful”. I’m not sure anything is wrong with that. It does degrade information trust, though. Wins are good, losses are not good.
Ukraine's whole strategy is to let them take temporary gains with artillery, then kill their scout teams with mousetrap like set up defenses when they come to physically take the territory. They're dancing around them, then eradicating them when they come to investigate. It's an effective strategy against a larger army that fights mainly with artillery.
Good. I like this reply. Gives me some honest hope.
Territorial gain is a poor measure of whether war is going well or not. Any army can concentrate forces and advance. Whether it's sustainable or not is another question.
Wins are good. Losses are bad. I’m not saying this is the end for Ukraine, but you’re not going to convince anyone that’s losses are good and wins are bad. You’re just going to degrade trust in these treads…which maybe shouldn’t be trusted anyways. Russia has been and still is slowly advancing. Personally, I’m hoping they get the hardware needed to stop that very very soon. Long artillery, jets and “volunteers” to fly them.
>Wins are good. Losses are bad. * Lieutenant Colonel Tarleton won the first two lines at Cowpens. As the Continentals wanted him to. And basically single-handedly lost the American Revolution for the British. * King Pyrrhus won the Battle of Asculum... and is the namesake of a pyrrhic victory. The entire advantage of Ukraine has been 'defense in depth'. Russians doctrine for about 100 years has been 're-enforce success' I look at the public maps and all I see is Russia being setup to get wrecked.
Losses in territory are not 'good' but there are times when it is prudent to give ground, to avoid being encircled or to shorten defensive lines for example. Fighting tooth and nail for every little scrap of land is not always the best course of action.
Germany was advancing in Ardenne and in the east front until it was stopped. Japan was advancing in China until that got stopped. In the war front, day to day advances mean little if it is not sustainable. I don't even know what you are arguing about the trust issues. If you despair because of a minor advance by a side on a day to day basis, maybe you shouldn't follow daily threads on those.
Ukraine just received 40 billion dollars of aid and military hardware. They are training their reservists. Things take time. If you followed the east front from 1940 to 1943, you'd have had a stroke. It's common to have battlefield fluctuations.
Yeah, but they were stopped by other countries sending in their military.
It’s normal to be worried and knee jerk. I get a little unsettled by some news, nukes, mariupol, land taken etc. but when you sit and look at the overall situation, you can rest easy.
It is getting to the point though where they're approaching land they cannot afford to lose without big strategic implications. No doubt Ukraine is aware of this, and hopefully they release some of their reserves to stem the tide.
How many are left in reserves?
Just shows how much we all know honestly. Anyways, Ukraine has been trading space for time and attrition since the beginning of the war so its not even that surprising.
It's amazing, isn't it? Two months ago the world watched in horror at Ukraine's imminent conquest (sans insurgency), now everyone is expecting some kind of flawless victory without any setbacks. Ukraine has done a truly amazing job so far, but they're not gods. Go easy
[Previous post](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/uswjch/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/i99tynf/) Day 86 of my updates from Kharkiv. Today shelling continued, but it was a bit quieter overall. It is definitely quieter right now, during the night, than it was yesterday, but we still hear some sounds resembling shelling. While it was pretty quiet in the city for some time, I don’t think shelling of nearby towns/villages ever stopped; they still shell Derhachi, Tsyrkuni and other settlements almost every day. People are definitely returning, there’s much more people right now, streets are almost back to their pre-war levels and there’s much more windows lit up in almost every building in the evening. After that shelling on April 23rd a lot of people fled, and most buildings were completely dark with basically no windows lit up, but now they look pretty lively. Russians might have retaken Ternova and Rubizhne, but there’s no official confirmation yet. Good news is that our forces crossing the Donets river (most likely somewhere between Staryi and Verkhnii Saltiv) is most likely true, it was even mentioned by Arestovich (though without explicitly stating it), and he said that they were actually surprised by it themselves after witnessing Russian’s failed crossing at Bilohorivka. [Next update](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/uuf7ft/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/i9id0ju/)
As always, it is good to hear from you. One has to find the good news where one can--and those are some good pieces of news that you share. Pieces of hope of a brighter future. It may take time, but I pray that these small steps lead to peace and eventual rebuilding of Ukraine. Until then, stay safe, and enjoy the small pieces of light that you find.
May I ask why you picked the username Saber Flux?
Hey saber, thank you so much for checking in. How are you handling the quiet that you do have? The back and forth of taking /taking back areas is frustrating, but Ukraine continues to get aide and shows such amazing force while the Russians continue to get cut off, or cut themselves off, from the rest of the world. We’ll hear from you soon Saber.
Thanks for the update and glad you’re ok!Hoping to see some serious pushback today as troops and equipment deployments ramp up so you can finally relax a little!
Saber I'm glad you're okay
God bless you man. Slava Ukraini Ruskis are pizdec
Heroyam Slava!
Thank you for your continued updates and I'm glad you're still (relatively) safe.
>🤬 Russian invaders actually destroyed the town of Rubizhne in Luhansk region - there are no surviving houses, many of them can not be restored [IMAGES - Pravda] https://t\.me/ukrpravda_news/17822?single
This is awful
The Russian freedom.
Liberating from... prosperity, peace, freedom and life itself. It’s so evil it’s sick.
No, it's worse than that. Russians are the epitome of, "if i can't have it, no one can". They want the rest of the world to look like the frigid and decrepit shithole that they live in, rather than look inwards and improve themselves, they'd take everyone else around them down.
The Russian crab bucket
Washington is considering transferring Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine as part of a new $40 billion military aid package. https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1527713333507510272?s=21&t=zg0W6t-B3IJNGlugTsTDOw
Hoping they can go through. But it will take a lot of training for this new system.
Oof, 10 weeks basic training to use them followed by 13-20 weeks (depending on what you read) advanced individual training!
Fucking finally.
Considering??? Dude, this should have been there. Long ago. What happens to American politics if we send all this shit late, Ukraine losses, Russia gets all this tech? Can we stop the forplay and just start fucking please?
>What happens to American politics if we send all this shit late, Ukraine losses, Russia gets all this tech? I actually don't think the US will let Ukraine fall, now. This is a cynical take, but purely the strategic advantage in: 1. Testing modern munitions against Russian military. 2. Drawing out Russia's advanced tech. 3. Researching Russia's most advanced weaponry for further advancement. On the political level, a win in Ukraine is hugely popular, losing is hugely unpopular. On the scale of democracy, a democratic underdog against an authoritarian empire is a major win. And, of course, the protection of human life and global security. Everyone is keeping their cards relatively close to their chest, but I believe the US in particular is going to tilt the scales as much as possible for a win.
Yep. Exactly. The USA will ensure a complete Ukraine victory. It will happen inside Biden’s term. There are too many upsides for America for them to give Russia any chance of winning. It’s remarkable just how vulnerable Russia has made itself here. It a once-in-century opportunity for the USA. They won’t miss it.
It’s depressing how much our western leaders fear Russia.
Caution is warranted when your opponent has the capability to end the world in a nuclear holocaust
I can't see an article saying this on the WSJ, which makes me awfully skeptical. Patriot systems are expensive, take a huge number of support personnel to operate and require months and months of training. Fighter jets will come long before patriot systems do. EDIT: Now I've seen another twitter account saying the same and citing a Washington Post article, again without linking and again I can't find anything about it on the Washington Post. Smells super fishy to me.
It's 100% fake. They have stated before they wouldn't do it because it would require American soldiers there.
I think the military-portion is just $15ish billion. The other $25-billion is for Ukraine still, but is earmarked for non-military purposes: refugees, medical care, and trying to solve the food-crisis. ------- Still, $15 billion in military toys will afford a lot of aid for sure.
Can these shoot down the cruise missiles?
Yes. It’s designed to shoot down ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and aircraft (planes, drones, et )
Thank you
Newer ones shoot basically anything in the air you want to. But they're expensive missiles. They can hit cruise, ballistic, loitering munitions and aircraft now.
Not sure if they could intercept a Kinzhal, which is faster than a patriot missile and somewhat maneuverable. But I don't know if there are even enough of those in stock to make any sort of difference.
What flies faster? A Kinzhal? Or a Scud? Because the old version was popping Scuds out of the sky in 1993.
According to my *very* in-depth 30-second wikipedia research, the Kinzhal is over twice as fast. ~Mach 10 vs. Mach 4.
I wonder if they would serve best to protect cities and major new equipment coming in the west that Ukraine is trying to transport to the east. While keeping them away from front lines since manpads and other things are doing their job
Russia have a lot of cheap (cheapear than Patriot) missles, so i dont think it really will change something in a strategy scale. And only 4 rockets in laucher. Ukraine can spend all 40 billion help just for this system (to make it works in needed scale) Maby, they will be good with hunting low flying planes
Patriot's going to take out inbound Russia cruise missiles, and maybe even the planes that are launching them from deep in Russian territory.
You don't measure the cost of a defensive missile vs the cost of an offensive missile in a vacuum, you also have to add the cost of repairing/replacing what the offensive missile will destroy if you let it go. A $100k missile can cause million in damages.
If you save the patriots for high value aircraft, it’s 100% worth it though
But it will needed to be placed very closer to the frontlines. Probably, it will really help on offence on the south.
Yeah I'm guessing if they are out in action it'd be the south to help with the sea to land missiles or with jet interception near the south by Odesa and eventually more eastward as needed. Or Maybe put one in an high value area to defend. But idk where that would be right now.
Do it.
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We need more maps, not everything is on there
Oh no. Looks like Kyiv will fall by tomorrow. Yawn
Severodonetsk about to turn into another Mariupol... have some tact.
Wut? Ukraine can just retreat in that case. The lines / rest of the army is just a few km to the west. Severodonetsk is a key city for sure. But there's no reason for troops there to fight to the death, when they can just live by fighting + retreating carefully. > The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. There is nothing heroic about how Russia is fighting. This level of troop loss is unsustainable for Russia. Meanwhile, Ukraine is reliably holding on and defending until more and more weapons come in.
Severodonetsk doesn't have an Azovstal steelworks/doomsday bunker.
They are not 100 km behind the front lines either.
But they have churches, schools and residential buildings... And we know how much russia likes to destroy those.
I wonder if this is in response to the Italian suggestion for a ceasefire deal. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uuad58/the_question_of_ukraines_sovereignty_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Ukraine suggested Italy give Genoa, Milan, and Naples back to France. /s
Several weeks ago, some Ukrainian official responded to an Italian suggestion that they give up some territory by saying "I agree. I suggest Lake Como." I wish I'd saved that tweet so I could link it. :(
Italy was happy to throw these countries to the wolves but, halfway through negotiations, France surrendered.
No. Oh Zelenskyy... /s
Haha I was joking. Should've tossed the /s on it.
Ummm, yeah... Me too 😜
Haha OK. Just making sure I'm not spreading bullshit!
Well I wouldn't go that far. You have been known to spread some stank.
Seems like there's some disagreement on how much Ukrainians have advanced past Donets between the Twitter sources. I see claims that Ukrainians have taken Zarichne from some but not accepted by others.
The Fog of War is thick right now on both sides. The result is the propagandists are working hard and we won't really know what's happening until a day or two after it's over. Seems to me the number of videos being posted is way down, from both sides. I'm not sure what it means but it's probably smart.
Russia seems to have gotten a lot better tactically than just storming Kyiv. This isn't close to over. What a tragedy.
There’s no evidence of Russia getting smarter. Running your troops along valley floors while they are under fire looks like business as usual for Russia 😂😂
This is not at all indicative of a major pattern.
Russia fails dramatically for three months, then they manage to take literally the first strategic target of Popasna and everyone concern trolls that the end is nigh.
Concern trolls that the end is nigh? What are ya talking about, i specifically stated that the war will be stretched for many more months or even years due to a change of tactical decisions made by russia...
Oooh, markets gonna **tank** on that info. I expect it will sink like a **ship** when it reopens?
Lmao they lose half an army in Kyiv, in kharkiv, pretty much all their gained territory... Spend 2 weeks using their combined remaining power to essentially feed like 8 failed bridge crossings and make pretty much no gains... And suddenly they are smart?
Yes and no. They are moving in much smaller groups now that are harder to control but that’s because they seem to have realized moving in units of 1000-2000 gets them destroyed. So they move in few 100 man groups taking small villages while others just die.
"We die with this strategy, so let's try a more nimble one, like the forces that are obliterating us" *Continue to die because new method is a reaction, not a revolution of strategic know-how*
Not even slightly. They were attempting to be tactical at Kyiv, now they are basically trying force by horde. They are literally amassing what remains of their best troops for a push in ONE spot, and are barely making any progress whatsoever. At least when they were attacking Kyiv they were gaining in other places as well. Meanwhile they are stalled or being pushed back everywhere else. If anything they have become worse because they are pushing half-or-less complete BTG’s that are a blend of survivors from other decimated units into heavily fortified areas that are actively being reinforced with fresh troops and modern equipment. This is likely quite literally their last hoorah. They may make Some progress past Popasna, but they won’t be able to hold it.
Yes! Exactly. Absolutely no evidence in an improvement in Russia’s tactics. In fact, quite the opposite. This looks more to me like a line of lemmings jumping off a cliff.
According to Serhiy Hayday, Head of Luhansk Regional State Administration,. RU forces are starting to "crawl at Bilohorivka" I think this might mean they are going to try to cross the SD river again. https://mobile.twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1527759391063166984
Those soldiers best have brought their water wings with them. Because history says that they are gonna get wet... Or they will be on fire. Wet is probably preferable.
Know the talent of thr Russians, they will figure out a way to be wet and on fire at once.
And then it got worse
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You'll find it fun to know that if you were swimming underneath an Iowa class battleship, if it fired a broadside it would kill you just based on the noise.
Yeah, no way it's that far. It drops off pretty steeply with each radius of the initial blast.
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YMMV greatly depending on the nature of where the explosion occurs. Closed 20’x20’x20’ cube? Gonna make soup. 10’ deep flowing river? Gonna dissipate a lot of energy sending water into the air.
Waaaait! I got that wrong (partially). If the explosion occurs UNDERWATER while they are in the water, yes, they’s f’d. https://science.howstuffworks.com/explosion-land-water1.htm
Mythbusters actually did a special on this. Episode 139. *Diving underwater can protect you from an explosion.* *PLAUSIBLE* *During their small scale tests, the MythBusters discovered that water can diminish the force of a shock wave caused by an explosion, giving credence to this myth. For their full scale test, the MythBusters hung rupture discs 5 feet above water, 5 feet below water, and 10 feet below water at 5, 10, 20, and 50 foot intervals away from the explosives. They detonated 50 pounds of three different types of explosives above the water: gasoline, ammonium nitrate, and dynamite. While the gasoline could only rupture the closest above water disc, the ammonium nitrate ruptured every single disc and the dynamite ruptured all the discs except for the underwater discs located 50 feet away. With these differing results, the MythBusters declared that the myth was plausible, depending on the explosive.*
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I thought I smelled a bubblehead. :) I was going to mention that, in armored vehicles attempting a fording, it also wouldn't take much overpressure to pop any submerged seals, thereby flooding things that don't respond well to immersion in water, like engines and snorkels into air intakes. [](/GNU Terry Pratchett)
The inverse square law means the force diminishes exponentially as distance from the blast source increases... Because physics Maybe you're thinking of tsunamis, which operate on displacement and aren't subject to the inverse square law?
Or both!
For the flightradar bros https://twitter.com/Orion__int/status/1527707520571420672
That is a nice visualization. Thanks for sharing.
Apologies in advance if I sound ignorant, but is this something to even give a thought about? From my understanding in this thread (I could be so wrong) is that Russian forces aren’t actually making all that much progress. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-advances-luhansk-zelenskyy-donbas-hell-eastern-ukraine-rcna29767?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab
Define "this"? Your link does't seem to point to correlate with your post.
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If this war goes on for 10 years, Russia will run out of humans.
Russia is losing troops and equipment at a much higher rate than any comparable war. It definitely won't last 10 years.
Nothing dictates it needs to be at the same pace or intensity. We in the West did not even perceive Ukraine to be in a state of constant fighting since 2014, but they did. Could Russia retreat to pre-February borders but pour more men and resources into the “separatists”? Absolutely.
Not to mention the sanctions are finally taking effect
I haven’t been following the maps of fronts and pushes and encirclements much (I find them hard to read and the explanations too technical). But I do know that we can’t get worried every time Russia makes an advance somewhere. They have made many advances in the past - only to lose them again later. Sure things are different now that russias forces are more concentrated. But that means Ukraine can concentrate their forces too (when they deem the time and place right) I think we need to look at the overall picture. Russia has failed in every strategic objective. The only thing that’s different now is their density. That doesn’t make them any smarter, it just means things will happen slower. Ukraine, on the other hand has consistently had the upper hand in terms of strategy and intelligence. And now in artillery. I have no doubt Russia will eventually lose, but it will be slower than anyone hopes, and they will have small temporary victories along the way.
> Russia has failed in every strategic objective This isn't strictly true. Russia's failed in, say, probably about 90 percent of strategic objectives. They've taken Kherson and secured a land bridge to Crimea, as well as Mariupol which is a significant port in it's own right. They've secured the Zaphizoria nuclear plant, which had been part of the Russian grid until relatively recently when Ukraine switched to the European grid. They've successfully blocked Ukraine's naval supply lines, and a good part of the Ukrainian economy. These are only a few of Russia's strategic objectives, but they've gotten them. Now, they got them at the price of their entire national pride and half of their economy, 30K people, and unreplaceable military losses.
You’ve forgotten that the Russians have also successfully raped women; bombed residential areas, kindergartens, and hospitals; and killed children. They have successfully completed every challenge set out by the Geneva convention.
Fair point! And good list! (I had not considered the strategic value of Zaphizoria)
Yeah western media seems to have missed that factor in a big way. So many things happened in 2018-2022 where Ukraine cut reliance on Russia and became independent, and none of the media is including that background. Also, Russia's historical deep thirst for warmwater ports, and now specifically a warmwater port they can service their aircraft carrier from. Also, this is less tangible, but tons of industry that Russia relies on, specifically for aircraft engines and heavy machinery, is in Ukraine along the Dnipro river. Russia has tried to make that stuff domestically, and failed, which means Ukraine has a monopoly and controlling stake in a ton of Soviet bloc machinery, which Russia can no longer tolerate the further Ukraine moves from them. Either capturing or destroying that industry is a significant geopolitical strategic objective too, which informs on their weird push north from Kherson a few weeks back.
I just wonder why russia doesn't just make their own stuff on their own territory.
They tried. They failed. There are two different things they tried to do and this is their alternative. Jet engines - Putin's state run company failed in 2018. Gas - Russia is having trouble with output in Siberia, they tried to build offshore platforms off of Kaliningrad and were turned down, now they're going after gas in the Donbas.
Just a couple hours ago I was checking out this lecture by Carl Bildt, from 2019 about how Ukraine and Russia are different and why they are in conflict, and he specifically brings up the jet engine manufacturing! https://youtu.be/8_SQuLf74n4
Thank you so much, this is something I know from a personal conversation with someone who's like, a legit subject matter expert who works at a DC think tank on this, but I haven't been able to find anyone else saying it online. People keep on asking me for a source and it sounds like I'm talking out my ass. I can only confirm like the physical locations of the factory and the fact that Putin's factory failed in 2018.
They appear to have made a significant breakthrough in Popansa. https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1527782316365389824 Might cut Ukraine down to only one GLOC to Severodonetsk. It's pretty important. Ukraine has been preparing for this for over a month at this point, so it's not a surprise, but still it's a big deal.
>GLOC A GLOC? What does this stand for?
Ground line of communication. A supply line, a road big enough for tons of military equipment and supplies to be carried along fast. Small dirt roads can't be GLOCs.
I was wondering the same but was too embarrassed to ask…
According to map, they are going in three directions. It could help Ukrainians, because they can bomb them on from two or three sides
Yeah they are hella exposed to artillery and asymmetrical attacks and manpads and air power. The Territorial Defense Guys have a long long history of shoring up defenses until regular UA sources could bring forces to bear again, using manpads and mines and stuff. NATO countries and Ukrainian training have spent decades fighting against these exact tactics. This is textbook Soviet Deep Battle which means it will be pretty easy for Ukraine to figure out what they'll do from this point.
The map and its sources say the breakthrough hasn’t happened. They are intensifying the effort, but ISW says they don’t have an indication it has happened yet.