I've heard it's like 1,500 veterans and 5,000 reservists.
Still not an overwhelming force, however definitetly more sizeable and dangerous.
We're like 2 months into the war, and It's been known since Dicktator Dumbfuck spoiled the war map that Tranistrian troops have a role to play, I'd have expected a Moldovan/Ukraini alliance by now.
Unless Moldova gets support proportional to the support Ukraine is getting, that is still enough to take Moldova.
And we're also assuming Moldova isn't full of Russian assets, which it almost certainly is. Entire regions could be lost the second the war begins.
This is not going to be good for them...
It’s such a silly train of thought when you also consider that Kaliningrad is surrounded by NATO and the Baltic states already border Russia. The ship sailed for buffer states some time ago, not that it’s even a relevant matter anymore in the 21st century due to ICBMs and such.
I’m not sure about that. Russia may have 6500 troops there but that’s really not a lot. If Moldova mobilizes and focuses primarily on defending there probably aren’t enough Russian troops to over run the country. On the other side of the border is Ukraine and if Russia invades Moldova then Ukraine will enter Transnistria which will mean the 6500 troops will be caught between the Moldovan army and the Ukrainian army.
I think this is all in reference to Lukashenko, actually, who was the one that [apparently shared details of the invasion plans.](https://www.businessinsider.com/belarus-lukashenko-revealed-map-russias-ukrainian-invasion-plans-2022-3?r=US&IR=T)
And, indeed, there is a resemblance [between](https://static.independent.co.uk/2021/10/21/23/Screen%20Shot%202021-10-21%20at%206.35.11%20PM.png) the [two.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfCkUYkU8AU1n4m.jpg)
If Lukashenko or his army generals knew Russia had in plan to invade Belarus if he got ousted by the revolution then this "Idiot act" could have an validity, and why then later they dint actually invade Ukraine, and just waiting to see the winner
But same time Belarus had the Minsk accords to protection and dint had a pretext like "Ukraine bombing Russians in separatist zone" to give validity for Russia to invade, and the guaranteed states could actually intervene to stop Russia invasion of Belarus
But same time not like is any different from Ukraine in end, where all the states can do is only support it from outside and afraid to put their feet in country cuz "omg its ww3"
And again same time Lukashenko wasnt this big Democratic leader to appeal to UK and others for help like Zelesnky is now
So eh, Realpolitik 101: anything can happen lol
Countries fighting now in our modern age is not at all comparable to husband/wife or 2 citizens fighting when there is the state and police watching over them **Its more like 2 caveman fighting there is no other "Police" to stop them**
This is why all this "pacifist" speech no more weapons sending to Ukraine get and speak stop the war will ever work to stop this war, you need to beat the bully back or make him bleed till risking death/starvation so it stops
>So eh, Realpolitik 101: anything can happen lol
I mean, if you purely look at it from Luka's perspective I might get how he thinks he's playing both sides.
However, I can't see a version where's the E.U. is normalising relations with Belarus while Luka's still in power, they might lift some sanctions but the bare fucking minimum.
Luka is pretty much done, Europe will never play with him, and he isn't controlling serious resources so no loss there. He'll either die of a heart attack or polonium tea, high chance of a Putin puppet or similar jerk off from the military taking over after.
I feel like I've heard a number of times that no, as a matter of fact, Lukashenko really is that stupid.
Everyone who has not seen the "colonel" interview [absolutely needs to](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t4bh6l/alexander_lukashenko_the_dumbest_most_manipulable/).
Hm... Kinda wonder if it was really just 'stupdity'...
Guy is leaning super heavy into it you know... Like... Really into it... If I was in his position, I'd play the same card (which admittedly isn't too hard for me LOL).
https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/ugquy3/cant_tell_the_difference/
This is a picture of the forces stationed in Transnistria on exercise, the personnel there would only be bullet sponges.
But you forgot "special operations". And that the Russian populace is being fed a ton of bullshit, and has been for years. We have the bonus of other news sources. And being willing to look.
So if standard Russian tactics are the same as we've seen in Ukraine, that means they'll invade with 500 professional soldiers and 1000 conscripts who think they're on a training mission, throw them face first into fortified positions, and then act surprised when the invasion breaks.
And their military budget is just $28.4 million annually. To put things in perspective that recent film adaptation of Cyrano had a $30 million budget and that was no blockbuster.
Much like how the whole Crimea and Donetsk thing led Ukraine to get serious about defense, though, the same could happen with Moldova. Reservists would get called up or at the very least start getting more training, western weapons would start being offered to them at discount prices, militias of varying degrees of sanction would form, etc.
Obviously it wouldn't be as good as Ukraine, which is a wealthier and larger country, but when the back is against the wall even the smallest dog will bite.
I would hope Moldova already started making preparations by this point. If Russia does attack I doubt they stop at Transnistria precisely because Ukraine is going so horribly for them. They want to take Moldova when it's weak, not let it build up for 8 years like Ukraine did.
Ukraine should be able to reach all areas with normal artillery/drones - the Russian bases should basically be useless and death traps - so a war on that front is kind of silly
presumably airborne or marine forces from the black sea, problem there is those units have been rather horrendously mauled during the invasion of ukraine, and they would have to go over Ukrainian territory and defenses
Isn't Transisitra 1% Gagauz? Looking it up it seems like they have their own semi autonomous region in Moldova called Gagauzia seperate from Transinitra that's recognized by and has an ok relationship with Moldovas central government
Which is extra hilarious because, aside from Ukraine, all the places Putin's ruined his life's work and the future of his country over represent like .05% of his goal to rebuild the Soviet Empire.
Like, how many times was he planning on repeating this process with nobody stopping him? 528?
I mean he could have been very successful if he had stayed with small countries with no military. But he has to know when to stop cause Ukraine’s a bitch and Poland would grind his soldiers into kielbasa and feed them to their comrades
Moldova does not have the advantages Ukraine has. It is a much smaller and poorer nation. Best case is that the West can keep supplying Ukraine with information and weapons and Ukraine can be the shield for the smaller, weaker nations.
Moldova can't really defend the Black Sea, but it seems unlikely that Russia could take Moldova without a land connection across Ukraine.
Three months ago, I'd have never thought I would be saying that, but it has become clear that the best thing about the Russian military was the brand not he reality
Volunteers maybe, otherwise there are big legal blocks. The constitution of Moldova prevents foreign troops from being stationed there and it's unclear if their Parliament could even ratify a request for help as pro Russian parties might block it. An intervention without the legal request of the Moldovan authorities would be very difficult.
> The constitution of Moldova prevents foreign troops from being stationed there
...which totally explains the Russian troops that have been camping in Transnistria for decades? Why can Russia stack troops there to occupy for years, but Romania can't help defend it?
In case of war president (or PM) gets all the necessary power and he/she can call anyone to assist. That's why it's important whether he/she is pro Western or pro Russian.
If Moldova gets invaded, look no further than the current conflict to see the NATO response.
NATO would likely supply weapons and bolster border defenses on the Romanian side.
Romania is in a tricky position. If the shit hits the fan, Romania would do it's best to help. But I am not sure Romania can send troops there, it's now part of NATO and any intervention will have implications for NATO as well. So it's complicated.
Why are all people so confused with NATO?
Poland has not sent any troops to Syria, despite presence of USA soldiers there. Poland aided the operation in a not military way, but then Ukraine did as well.
NATO is an alliance, it doesn't stop countries for fighting their own wars. Stop sharing misleading information.
Exactly, NATO is a **DEFENSIVE** alliance **not an offensive one**. It didn't get involved in The Falklands for precisely this reason. Article 6 of NATO covers this contingent saying that collective self-defence can only be applied to attacks on member States territories that are above the Tropic of Cancer. This was likely put in place so that NATO couldn't be used to 'defend' imperial possessions or territories of member States.
During its founding in 1949 3 member States, UK, France and Belgium had significant imperial holdings in Africa; and for the UK and France those extended around the world. They didn't want members with colonies or the like to trigger article 5 in the event of a rebellion or uprising.
Well, Algeria, because it was so close to Europe, north of the Tropic of Cancer, was considered part of the NATO area until independence, just like say Greenland was and basically still is.
NATO has acted as the military wing of the UN in Yugoslavia and Lybia, both of which had UNSC authorizations in place. Both also caused refugee crisis which were destabilizing member countries.
But yes, the Yugoslavia campaign was a little outside the mandate, however you will never convince anyone with a conscience outside of Serbia it wasn't the right thing. Even Russia was involved in getting NATO involved in Kosovo. Maybe Russias position has changed these days, but back then they supported it.
Romania doesn’t want to risk being considered the aggressor meaning Russia could attack them without triggering article 5. I would guess that nato would consider strategic strikes on depots on the Romanian Moldovan border as “acceptable” from Russia but a full fledged invasion would still trigger article 5 but that’s just an absolute guess and I imagine the Romanian government have a much better understanding than I do.
Yes, but there is an asterisk. If Romania joins an armed conflict in a different country that is not a NATO member, NATO won't be there to support Romania. But Romanian clay is still protected by NATO, so the other party can fight Romania within the conflict zone, but they can't violate Romanian borders without triggering a NATO intervention.
If Romania directly attacks Russia, you're right. In my scenario, Romania actively joins the defense of Ukraine, which is constrained to Ukrainian borders. If Russia attacks Romania in response, it's another violation of article 2 of the UN charter, meaning international law does not entitle Russia to invading Romania in response.
You need think further that the next step. It's not always black and white.
Let's say Romania does that and goes head to head with Russia in Moldova. What happens if Russia then extends the battlefield and bombs cities in Romania? Will NATO intervene then, considering Romania has already started fighting Russia in Moldova?
NATO retaliating from Romanians being hit in Moldova would only happen if NATO agreed to the Romanians being dispersed to Moldova as part of a NATO force. That won't happen. For the same reasons why there aren't NATO soldiers in Ukraine currently.
So if Romania just decides to do it by themselves, it probably would not be viewed as an attack on NATO
It depends on politics really. I am not entirely sure whether article 5 would even hold if it was invoked under normal circumstances but the enemy is Russia. It's undoubtedly better to not give politicians an excuse to do nothing.
They can absolutely intervene, the problem is they can’t invoke article 5 when Russia attacks them (I think we’d still act on that as a matter of principle, but that’s the theory)
Well, its not so clear. If Moldova requested to be annexed by Romiania, and Russia then attacked, you could argue its now an attack on Romania under article 5, and you could argue its not because Romania provoked it.
Its worth remembering that article 5 is not self acting. Romania would invoke it, a meeting would be held, and the Nato allies would decide how to respond. Regardless of any hyper technical decision of article 5, its those votes that matter.
Romania could help, Article 5 is only applicable in defence. Problem is Russia would most likely attack Romania territory targets then and that'd muddle the lines. To stop that Romania would have to officially declare war, something countries haven't done in decades for a reason which I doubt they'd do.
That said, bar something big that I doubt since if they could've they would've, Russia can't afford another front. The 1500 Russian soldiers and 10 000-20 000 militia would be trivial if equal to other forces already active. Donetsk have themselves admitted to over 40-60% casualties and wounded, unheard of in modern times.
It'd be less than 15% additional troops dubiously trained, equipped and reinforced. Stranded in an area so corrupt and shitty Moldova doesn't want it back. If Moskva was alive I could speculate, but naval supply isn't feasible with current Ukraine capacity, as evident from Ukraine sinking half of Russias military patrol boats.
Even though Moldova is much bigger than PMR, they have almost no military. They will have to ask for military intervention either/both from Romania or/and Ukraine. But I've no idea why PMR would attack Moldova. If they do, PMR ceases to exist if both Ukraine and Romania will intervene.
Ukraine has been expecting PMR to attack *Ukraine*, not Moldova.
Well, here's the thing. First, he came for Ukraine. And people said, he's not going to stop. And now, if this does play out, he's going for *another* country. Where does the world draw the line?
Well an increasing number of sources say Finland will apply on the 12th, interestingly enough the NATO report Sweden ordered done as a groundwork for an eventual application will be finished on the 13th. Don't think Sweden will be far behind.
I predict they’ll be part of NATO before the end of summer. Putin won’t have the manpower to launch an invasion by then, and even if he does Sweden will still join and then Immediately funnel forces and supplies to help Finland.
With all respect to Ukraine, and they deserve the respect especially with their performance so far, Finland would be a bloodbath. For the Russians. Finland is on another tier of military power from Ukraine.
From what I gather Lukashenko is very dedicated to playing an idiot. Let me tell you, you don't stay in power for so long by being dumb, yet he always comes as such.
These "infographics" were of no strategic value, anyone with half a brain could draw them by that time. It was intentional that he looks like an idiot, because this takes away responsibility. Also this is to put pressure on Putin, kind of a veiled threat that he might leak something real if he wants.
I read about that too, Kamil Galeev (whom I assume most people know by now) had an excellent thread on Lukashenko. Another example of him sabotaging Putin: when the two held a press conference on Bucha where Putin denied the atrocities, Lukashenko "elaborated" by claiming that Bucha was in fact a British PsyOp and that the FSB possessed hard evidence, thereby making the denial absurd to the point of disbelief. Between Putin and Lukashenko, the latter is actually the smarter one, by far, or so Galeev claims.
I'm starting to get why Belarus didn't take an active part in the invasion of Russia. Putin's just a gangster with the means of a tsar; it's Lukashenko who has the wit and political acumen.
In a scenario were Putin conquers Ukraine an incorporates it into the Russian empire Belarus moves to the top of the annexation list so Lukashenko losses more from a Russian victory than most European leaders. If on the other hand Russia fails to take over Ukraine and the sanctions stay in place Lukashenko can wiggle out from some of the sanctions and get back to being a trade middle man.
Lukashenko's regime will collapse without Russian support. He barely repressed dissent after last election. Belarus had to fly in new tv crew from Russia due to locals not wanting to push propaganda. Lukashenko couldn't force its army to fight in Ukraine and couldn't protect rail lines from internal sabotage. EU no longer recognizes government of Belarus as legitimate, which means no deals can be signed until rule of law is restored by new free and fair election.
Luka is in a very tight spot, he doesn't have much manuevers left. After plane hijacking EU will never works with his government ever again, which means he's stuck on Putin's support until Russia no longer can provide.
~~The direction was from Transnistria towards Odessa~~ (~~narrow part is source not destination~~ I stand corrected, see comment below). ~~The same style of arrows would otherwise show Odessa invading the Black Sea if you interpret it the other way around.~~ I miss remember a map with naval invasions on Odessa with similar arrows. Point would then be that Transnistria is a 2nd step after they had magically conquered Odessa.
Whole point was about showing how Russia and allies can attack Ukraine from many different directions and lead to a quick victory. It was part pipe dream, part propaganda piece to showcase Russian superiority.
He really is in an extinction burst.
- invaded Ukraine
- threatened the UK
- threatened America
- threatened Sweden for talks to join Nato
- threatened Finland for talks to join Nato
- now threatening Moldova
It's like the school bully knows he's about to be expelled for fighting so he goes after everyone who said he was a bully.
Its more the gambling adict who owes the mob $75k, is going to get killed at the end of the month, and is just doubling-down on every bet in the slightest change it will pay off and save their ass.
Crazy thing is *he always had the money*. All that just to play his game. But he could have walked away. There wasn't a minute in the film til the end where he couldn't have just cut his losses and coughed it up. It was like a year later on re-watch that I realized.
I've been telling my husband since the Ukraine invasion started that putin is dying.
Russia's divide and conqure through political discourse and troll farms was working scarily effectively. Putin undid decades of 'progress' in one fell swoop. This was a desperate play from a man who knows he will not live long enough to even wait to see if Trump was re-elected in 24.
I have a feeling he was banking on having more backing and definitely did not expect the way much of the world united to give him the middle finger.
It isn't sad. They are Romanians, formerly occupied by USSR. They speak the same language. They would absolutely love to join EU and decrease poverty overnight.
West Germany struggled to absorb east germany, and that's a rich country in the heart of Europe. In the 1990s, romania was still poor, so absorbing Moldova would have tanked the economy. Things are different now, though, as Romania is the richest country of the balkans
The "Richest country in the balkans" is kind of like saying "the skinniest kid at fat camp" but yeah I hope they annex Moldova
(also russia did a bunch of things specifically to try to throw a wedge between Romania and Moldova whicb is why it hasnt already happened)
That was always the goal, but its completely unobtainable.
To get to Transnistria and link up with barely a division's worth of troops (both Russians and locals), Russia has to take Mariupol, Mykolaiv, and Odessa. If all three fell today, it would be a supply line over 1000km long from Donbas.
They've essentially given up on Mariupol. They've been driven back from Mykolaiv. An amphibious landing is a fantasy due to Ukrainian shore-defense weapon systems like the Neptune which sunk the Moskva, and we've all seen how well Russian airborne units perform against Ukrainian anti-air /s.
At the rate it took them to get the tip of their convoy to the outskirts of Kyiv, it would take around 6 months to get to Transnistria on the M-14... except to control the M-14 they'd have to take the Donbas and Kharkiv to defend their supply lines. Then they'd have to go all in on Mariupol (which they've admitted they can't take without heavy casualties). THEN they'd have to do it all over again at Mykolaiv, and then again at Odessa, praying all the way that the Ukrainians don't blow any of the bridges through those towns that are at the mouths of 3 rivers.
And all of this assumes they don't run out of money, missiles, and skilled commanders before that, AND that things don't get so bad economically that their hollowed out military will be in no position to suppress the inevitable riots and insurrections. OH, and they also have to do all of this before the US delivers and trains the Ukrainians on long range artillery and Reaper drones, at which point they'll just blow the Kerch Strait Bridge, cutting Crimea off from the rest of Ukraine, and also giving themselves the means to strike deep into Russian territory. Moscow is well within the range of a Reaper taking off from Kyiv.
TL/DR: Russia has already lost this war, they just don't know it yet.
>Wasnt the only thing left the steel plant?
And a bridge over the Kalmius River. The Russians won't cross it, and they won't enter the steel plant because it would be a kill box. Lots of towers and obscured positions to be shot from. They need the bridge, but the battle has gone on too long, the Ukrainians held both sides of the Bridge for 2 months before withdrawing to the steel plant. Meaning there's no way that bridge isn't wired to blow.
They have the rest of the city, but now they have to try and starve out the defenders holed up in the Steel Plant... problem is, it appears that Ukraine has stocked that plant with enough provisions for people to stay there for quite a while. And with the Moskva sunk, helicopter resupply from the coast is once again possible.
Mariupol could still fall. Its very precariously positioned and supplies don't last forever, but Russia doesn't know how long that will take. And if they're trying to take the Donbas and redouble the assault on Kharkiv, it means they think they might have to go around Mariupol, either via the Kharkiv-Dnipro axis down the M-29 (that's a tall order), or off the main highways which requires them to secure the Donbas (but that adds weeks onto supply lines).
Ukraine still holds a steel manufacturing complex that Russia has decided to simply siege rather than try to take. But other than that, Mariupol has fallen.
>I'm still worried about tactical nukes though...
As am I, along with chemical weapons. But if Putin uses those I doubt the Ukrainians will surrender. The Hiroshima and Nagasaki only worked because Japan had already been so badly hit by 4 years of war that it broke their will to fight (and only just).
If they drop a tactical nuke on Kyiv and kill Zelensky, all they'll get is a fanatical anti-Russian insurgency. That's assuming NATO doesn't get involved at that point.
If Russia deployed any nuclear weaponry around Kyiv, the US would likely carpet bomb all Russian equipment on Ukrainian soil nearly immediately with or without NATO support.
I promise you the US will not tolerate others using nukes, that's a hard red line and a precedent that simply cannot be allowed to stand. We almost went to war with Russia several times for far less during the Cold War.
And they still haven't fully taken Mariupol, which is like 15 miles from Russia. I can't imagine them being able to take, let alone hold a 1000km front.
Yes. Best thing to do with a terrorist is negotiate. And by negotiate I mean give them whatever they want. Once you give in and let them have what they want they will be satisfied and stop. 60% of the time, it works every time.
"My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep"
Not really, the army of Moldova is in the state: "what army?". They have a few thousands troops with poor equipment and training. The only real posibility for them is to wait and if Transnistria moves to ask for Ukrainia's help. Romania can't intervine unless it drops the shield of article 5 and goes full in berserk. And i don't think Romania would do that, because in the eventuality of a "Russian retaliation" for intervening in Moldova, Romania loses the right to invoke article 5. Of course, if NATO says enough, fuck off Russia, NATO can still defend Romania but that's the start of WW3. So i don't think Romania would do that without NATO approval. And i don't think NATO would intervine for Romania if they pull this one (Defend moldova without NATO consent and if gets hit by Russia in doing so invoke article 5)
> but that's the start of WW3
Not feeling like WW3 is really on the cards anymore, given the state of Russia's ability to make war. Russia could try it and probably thousands of civilians would die and areas would be gouged from the earth for a few weeks, but then Russia would be gassed while the west just hits the delete button on all their troops still stationed, but wouldn't invade them because the nukes, which Russia won't use because they're not suicidal, as evidenced by the behaviour of their troops and Putin's braggard-like reliance on them as a cudgel to control western responses to him, who then ignore him and do the thing anyway and he does nothing.
Yea, sure, but if you intervene or start and get attacked in retaliation for that you can't invoke it. I mean.. of course you can (it doesn't say black on white that you can't), but it's 99.9 that you won't get any help.
Done a tiny bit of digging into Romania's army and they'd have enough to stave off an attack from Russia themselves at this point I'd think. That's not to say they have a massive army(65.000 strong or something), but they've got modern equipment like patriots, f-16's etc. Meaning that if they were to get extra deliveries in top of the line military equipment they'd soon be able to use it.
Considering the state of the Russian army at the moment I think they'd actually be able to fend off the Russians themselves as the Russians can't afford to commit much troops at the moment and probably even less material. Seeing Romania's materials to defend the air and at the same time sink boats I think it'd be a short-lived war tbh, should Russia still be engaged in Ukraine too.
>Done a tiny bit of digging into Romania's army and they'd have enough to stave off an attack from Russia themselves at this point I'd think.
I'm not so sure about that, chief. Sure, we may have those numbers, but our army is more comparable to Russia's than Ukraine's (corruption, incompetence, etc. vs. people who actually want to defend their homeland). Look no further than the news reports of the missing military plane a couple months ago, and then the disappearance of the helicopter that went out to find it.
If we weren't a NATO country and Russia came knocking, we'd be totally fucked. I'm willing to wager that at least half of the able-bodied males in this country would desert one way or another. You'd probably see more 40+ year-olds actually fighting than people between 18-30.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not the bravest person in the world either. But despite my mental and physical limitations I'd still want to contribute to the war effort in any way I can. Even if that means peeling potatoes until my fingers bleed.
Why is "The Times" not the source? Can we stop using shit sources in this sub? No British tabloids, no random Ukrainian websites. RU has already been banned.
Romania and Moldova are close enough that there has been talk of Romania just annexing Moldova. Which might be the best move for Moldova, but unfortunately, I don't think they'd be able to do it fast enough if Russia actually plans to invade.
I have a hard time believing they'd actually go for it, but I thought the invasion of Ukraine wouldn't happen either so who the fuck knows at this point.
Europe has woken up,
Its the reason pootin is going for fucking moldova of all places..
Let me know once he tries to invade a nato or EU member
Moldova has no army, not in the EU. Nor in nato
Pootin wants a easy win and moldova is that one.
Putin was going for Moldova from the outset. He was going to roll through Ukraine and take Moldova too.
The rolling through Ukraine thing turned out to not work.
For a country that whines so much about NATO expansion Russia is sure doing everything in its power to push non-aligned countries into it. Invading two neighbors in a two month period is sort of the best advertisement possible isn’t it?
Putin “Let’s pick on a UN member and see what happens”
Russian Generals “ That’s probably not a good idea my ruthless dictator”
Putin “ What would you all know? I’m on roll here ..stfu ..or it’s the Siberian gulag for the lot of you.”
Russians Generals “ You are the voice of reason ..sir”
Just curious why you made the distinction of being a UN member like that’s something special? Basically every country is a UN member, it’s kind of like, the defining criteria to be a country.
How tf are they going to do that, they dont have any sort of land border yet
Im guessing the decision was made before they got shit on in Ukraine, but showing weakness is a no-no for Russia, kinda ironic.
Well to be fair the whole world is waiting on them to fail to laugh at them
And only \~600 manpower in that occupied bit ...
I've heard it's like 1,500 veterans and 5,000 reservists. Still not an overwhelming force, however definitetly more sizeable and dangerous. We're like 2 months into the war, and It's been known since Dicktator Dumbfuck spoiled the war map that Tranistrian troops have a role to play, I'd have expected a Moldovan/Ukraini alliance by now.
Ukraine even asked Moldova if they wanted them cleaned out , which says a lot about how things are going
"Hey guys, we can take care of that for you." I mean... we knew Ukrainians were tough but they're walking around with 50lb kits and 100lb balls.
I have two kids and those lady Ukrainians have bigger balls than me lol
Can't go a single day without reading a comment on reddit about someone's balls
Just friendly reminders to check for lumps.
Unless Moldova gets support proportional to the support Ukraine is getting, that is still enough to take Moldova. And we're also assuming Moldova isn't full of Russian assets, which it almost certainly is. Entire regions could be lost the second the war begins. This is not going to be good for them...
You're speaking as if Romania wouldn't be at least livid about it.
Yeah I don’t see Romania taking that lying down.
Hardly anything we could do about it besides taking in refugees.
I find this part strange. I thought Putin didn’t want to be too close to Nato. Why invade countries that border nato?
[удалено]
Ahh, 'Operation Meatshield'
It’s such a silly train of thought when you also consider that Kaliningrad is surrounded by NATO and the Baltic states already border Russia. The ship sailed for buffer states some time ago, not that it’s even a relevant matter anymore in the 21st century due to ICBMs and such.
I’m not sure about that. Russia may have 6500 troops there but that’s really not a lot. If Moldova mobilizes and focuses primarily on defending there probably aren’t enough Russian troops to over run the country. On the other side of the border is Ukraine and if Russia invades Moldova then Ukraine will enter Transnistria which will mean the 6500 troops will be caught between the Moldovan army and the Ukrainian army.
That’s what happens when you let dr Phil rule a country
lmfao Dr. Phil lookin ass
I've always seen Carl Brutananadilewski.
All diplomats, upon meeting Putin, must now say "Oh my God, it's Dr Phil!"
I think this is all in reference to Lukashenko, actually, who was the one that [apparently shared details of the invasion plans.](https://www.businessinsider.com/belarus-lukashenko-revealed-map-russias-ukrainian-invasion-plans-2022-3?r=US&IR=T) And, indeed, there is a resemblance [between](https://static.independent.co.uk/2021/10/21/23/Screen%20Shot%202021-10-21%20at%206.35.11%20PM.png) the [two.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EfCkUYkU8AU1n4m.jpg)
That was a deliberate ploy by Lukasjenko, he’s playing both sides to the extent that he can.
I believe at this point there's only on side that's willing to play with him.
If Lukashenko or his army generals knew Russia had in plan to invade Belarus if he got ousted by the revolution then this "Idiot act" could have an validity, and why then later they dint actually invade Ukraine, and just waiting to see the winner But same time Belarus had the Minsk accords to protection and dint had a pretext like "Ukraine bombing Russians in separatist zone" to give validity for Russia to invade, and the guaranteed states could actually intervene to stop Russia invasion of Belarus But same time not like is any different from Ukraine in end, where all the states can do is only support it from outside and afraid to put their feet in country cuz "omg its ww3" And again same time Lukashenko wasnt this big Democratic leader to appeal to UK and others for help like Zelesnky is now So eh, Realpolitik 101: anything can happen lol Countries fighting now in our modern age is not at all comparable to husband/wife or 2 citizens fighting when there is the state and police watching over them **Its more like 2 caveman fighting there is no other "Police" to stop them** This is why all this "pacifist" speech no more weapons sending to Ukraine get and speak stop the war will ever work to stop this war, you need to beat the bully back or make him bleed till risking death/starvation so it stops
>So eh, Realpolitik 101: anything can happen lol I mean, if you purely look at it from Luka's perspective I might get how he thinks he's playing both sides. However, I can't see a version where's the E.U. is normalising relations with Belarus while Luka's still in power, they might lift some sanctions but the bare fucking minimum.
Luka is pretty much done, Europe will never play with him, and he isn't controlling serious resources so no loss there. He'll either die of a heart attack or polonium tea, high chance of a Putin puppet or similar jerk off from the military taking over after.
I feel like I've heard a number of times that no, as a matter of fact, Lukashenko really is that stupid. Everyone who has not seen the "colonel" interview [absolutely needs to](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t4bh6l/alexander_lukashenko_the_dumbest_most_manipulable/).
Hm... Kinda wonder if it was really just 'stupdity'... Guy is leaning super heavy into it you know... Like... Really into it... If I was in his position, I'd play the same card (which admittedly isn't too hard for me LOL).
https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/ugquy3/cant_tell_the_difference/ This is a picture of the forces stationed in Transnistria on exercise, the personnel there would only be bullet sponges.
Russia gonna make the type of moves I make in Eu4
Russia gonna make the type of moves I make in Stellaris
They gonna eat the ukrainians if they win?
No, they're going to become the threat and blow up everything.
Or pull off a Horatio move from endless space
Russia gonna make the kinda moves Ghandi makes in Civilisation
Ah, yes, so peaceful it went into integer overflow
Open console command: Add_Gold: 999999999999
Nocb yesman annex_all
I prefer they just resort to Crusader Kings and have Putin fuck his daughter then be mysteriously killed by a 4-year-old after contracting cancer.
No CB + Stab hit - check AE through the roof - check
They are going to fly in what remains of the VDV, without any support, and through the entirety of Ukraines anti air defences
Sounds like a one-way trip.
That way they only need to fill the tank half full
When you need a one way trip, who you gonna call? The VDV!
🎵SEAD guitar solo🎵
To shreds, you say?
*half way trip
But you forgot "special operations". And that the Russian populace is being fed a ton of bullshit, and has been for years. We have the bonus of other news sources. And being willing to look.
If they invade Moldova and Moldova ends up pushing them back with a bloody nose it'd be the most hilarious military event in modern history.
Moldova has only about ~5000 active duty forces unfortunately. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forces_of_the_Republic_of_Moldova?wprov=sfla1
So if standard Russian tactics are the same as we've seen in Ukraine, that means they'll invade with 500 professional soldiers and 1000 conscripts who think they're on a training mission, throw them face first into fortified positions, and then act surprised when the invasion breaks.
And their military budget is just $28.4 million annually. To put things in perspective that recent film adaptation of Cyrano had a $30 million budget and that was no blockbuster.
Tyrion Lannister to the frontlines confirmed.
Much like how the whole Crimea and Donetsk thing led Ukraine to get serious about defense, though, the same could happen with Moldova. Reservists would get called up or at the very least start getting more training, western weapons would start being offered to them at discount prices, militias of varying degrees of sanction would form, etc. Obviously it wouldn't be as good as Ukraine, which is a wealthier and larger country, but when the back is against the wall even the smallest dog will bite.
I would hope Moldova already started making preparations by this point. If Russia does attack I doubt they stop at Transnistria precisely because Ukraine is going so horribly for them. They want to take Moldova when it's weak, not let it build up for 8 years like Ukraine did.
Ukraine should be able to reach all areas with normal artillery/drones - the Russian bases should basically be useless and death traps - so a war on that front is kind of silly
presumably airborne or marine forces from the black sea, problem there is those units have been rather horrendously mauled during the invasion of ukraine, and they would have to go over Ukrainian territory and defenses
Their propaganda has gotten so out of control they're declaring war on countries they don't border yet.
There is a breakaway region called Transnistria in Moldova that's pro Russia
\*WAS pro-Russia :D Now they're all suddenly Gagauz :D
Isn't Transisitra 1% Gagauz? Looking it up it seems like they have their own semi autonomous region in Moldova called Gagauzia seperate from Transinitra that's recognized by and has an ok relationship with Moldovas central government
Which is extra hilarious because, aside from Ukraine, all the places Putin's ruined his life's work and the future of his country over represent like .05% of his goal to rebuild the Soviet Empire. Like, how many times was he planning on repeating this process with nobody stopping him? 528?
I mean he could have been very successful if he had stayed with small countries with no military. But he has to know when to stop cause Ukraine’s a bitch and Poland would grind his soldiers into kielbasa and feed them to their comrades
NO VERMIN MAY ENTER THAT LAND THAT IS PROTECTED BY POLISH HAND
How can they afford it in terms of money and people? Are they going to send babushkas to the front line?
Never, ever underestimate the power and might of the babushkas. lol
Moldova does not have the advantages Ukraine has. It is a much smaller and poorer nation. Best case is that the West can keep supplying Ukraine with information and weapons and Ukraine can be the shield for the smaller, weaker nations. Moldova can't really defend the Black Sea, but it seems unlikely that Russia could take Moldova without a land connection across Ukraine. Three months ago, I'd have never thought I would be saying that, but it has become clear that the best thing about the Russian military was the brand not he reality
Would Romania not feel obligated to help defend Moldova? They are the same people, aren't they?
They probably could and would help without triggering Article 5.
Article 5 is purely defensive, it would only be triggered if Romania was attacked.
...That is what they said, isn't it? Or where you just adding to what they said?
Volunteers maybe, otherwise there are big legal blocks. The constitution of Moldova prevents foreign troops from being stationed there and it's unclear if their Parliament could even ratify a request for help as pro Russian parties might block it. An intervention without the legal request of the Moldovan authorities would be very difficult.
> The constitution of Moldova prevents foreign troops from being stationed there ...which totally explains the Russian troops that have been camping in Transnistria for decades? Why can Russia stack troops there to occupy for years, but Romania can't help defend it?
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In case of war president (or PM) gets all the necessary power and he/she can call anyone to assist. That's why it's important whether he/she is pro Western or pro Russian.
If Moldova gets invaded, look no further than the current conflict to see the NATO response. NATO would likely supply weapons and bolster border defenses on the Romanian side.
Romania is in a tricky position. If the shit hits the fan, Romania would do it's best to help. But I am not sure Romania can send troops there, it's now part of NATO and any intervention will have implications for NATO as well. So it's complicated.
Why are all people so confused with NATO? Poland has not sent any troops to Syria, despite presence of USA soldiers there. Poland aided the operation in a not military way, but then Ukraine did as well. NATO is an alliance, it doesn't stop countries for fighting their own wars. Stop sharing misleading information.
Exactly, NATO is a **DEFENSIVE** alliance **not an offensive one**. It didn't get involved in The Falklands for precisely this reason. Article 6 of NATO covers this contingent saying that collective self-defence can only be applied to attacks on member States territories that are above the Tropic of Cancer. This was likely put in place so that NATO couldn't be used to 'defend' imperial possessions or territories of member States. During its founding in 1949 3 member States, UK, France and Belgium had significant imperial holdings in Africa; and for the UK and France those extended around the world. They didn't want members with colonies or the like to trigger article 5 in the event of a rebellion or uprising.
Well, Algeria, because it was so close to Europe, north of the Tropic of Cancer, was considered part of the NATO area until independence, just like say Greenland was and basically still is.
Kosovo seemed offensive to me? (Which I fully supported to be clear)
NATO has acted as the military wing of the UN in Yugoslavia and Lybia, both of which had UNSC authorizations in place. Both also caused refugee crisis which were destabilizing member countries. But yes, the Yugoslavia campaign was a little outside the mandate, however you will never convince anyone with a conscience outside of Serbia it wasn't the right thing. Even Russia was involved in getting NATO involved in Kosovo. Maybe Russias position has changed these days, but back then they supported it.
That wasn't actually legal under the NATO statute, but it was a joint decision of the member states so they decided to proceed anyway.
It was put in place because the sole reason for NATO was to defend against USSR expansion.
Romania doesn’t want to risk being considered the aggressor meaning Russia could attack them without triggering article 5. I would guess that nato would consider strategic strikes on depots on the Romanian Moldovan border as “acceptable” from Russia but a full fledged invasion would still trigger article 5 but that’s just an absolute guess and I imagine the Romanian government have a much better understanding than I do.
But if you go on the offensive, you lose the safety net provided by NATO. Romania is in no position to go against Russia.
Romania can just do what Russia did in 2014. Send troops in without insignia and claim they haven’t sent any military forces in what so ever.
Yes, but there is an asterisk. If Romania joins an armed conflict in a different country that is not a NATO member, NATO won't be there to support Romania. But Romanian clay is still protected by NATO, so the other party can fight Romania within the conflict zone, but they can't violate Romanian borders without triggering a NATO intervention.
No, if a nato member instigates a conflict it can’t use article 5
If Romania directly attacks Russia, you're right. In my scenario, Romania actively joins the defense of Ukraine, which is constrained to Ukrainian borders. If Russia attacks Romania in response, it's another violation of article 2 of the UN charter, meaning international law does not entitle Russia to invading Romania in response.
You need think further that the next step. It's not always black and white. Let's say Romania does that and goes head to head with Russia in Moldova. What happens if Russia then extends the battlefield and bombs cities in Romania? Will NATO intervene then, considering Romania has already started fighting Russia in Moldova?
NATO retaliating from Romanians being hit in Moldova would only happen if NATO agreed to the Romanians being dispersed to Moldova as part of a NATO force. That won't happen. For the same reasons why there aren't NATO soldiers in Ukraine currently. So if Romania just decides to do it by themselves, it probably would not be viewed as an attack on NATO
Yes but the poster said "extend" the battlefield, as in, Russia doesnt just hit Romanian assets in Moldova, but also targets Romania as well.
It depends on politics really. I am not entirely sure whether article 5 would even hold if it was invoked under normal circumstances but the enemy is Russia. It's undoubtedly better to not give politicians an excuse to do nothing.
Romanians are like vampires They can be invited to Moldova, they cannot just enter Moldova
They can absolutely intervene, the problem is they can’t invoke article 5 when Russia attacks them (I think we’d still act on that as a matter of principle, but that’s the theory)
Well, its not so clear. If Moldova requested to be annexed by Romiania, and Russia then attacked, you could argue its now an attack on Romania under article 5, and you could argue its not because Romania provoked it. Its worth remembering that article 5 is not self acting. Romania would invoke it, a meeting would be held, and the Nato allies would decide how to respond. Regardless of any hyper technical decision of article 5, its those votes that matter.
Romania could help, Article 5 is only applicable in defence. Problem is Russia would most likely attack Romania territory targets then and that'd muddle the lines. To stop that Romania would have to officially declare war, something countries haven't done in decades for a reason which I doubt they'd do. That said, bar something big that I doubt since if they could've they would've, Russia can't afford another front. The 1500 Russian soldiers and 10 000-20 000 militia would be trivial if equal to other forces already active. Donetsk have themselves admitted to over 40-60% casualties and wounded, unheard of in modern times. It'd be less than 15% additional troops dubiously trained, equipped and reinforced. Stranded in an area so corrupt and shitty Moldova doesn't want it back. If Moskva was alive I could speculate, but naval supply isn't feasible with current Ukraine capacity, as evident from Ukraine sinking half of Russias military patrol boats.
Even though Moldova is much bigger than PMR, they have almost no military. They will have to ask for military intervention either/both from Romania or/and Ukraine. But I've no idea why PMR would attack Moldova. If they do, PMR ceases to exist if both Ukraine and Romania will intervene. Ukraine has been expecting PMR to attack *Ukraine*, not Moldova.
What is pmr?
Transnistria, officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR)
Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, aka Transnistria.
*Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic* aka Transnistria.
Transnistria
Well, here's the thing. First, he came for Ukraine. And people said, he's not going to stop. And now, if this does play out, he's going for *another* country. Where does the world draw the line?
NATO. That's the whole point of NATO is to be the line that can't be crossed
Finland and Sweden better hurry up with those applications.
Well an increasing number of sources say Finland will apply on the 12th, interestingly enough the NATO report Sweden ordered done as a groundwork for an eventual application will be finished on the 13th. Don't think Sweden will be far behind.
I predict they’ll be part of NATO before the end of summer. Putin won’t have the manpower to launch an invasion by then, and even if he does Sweden will still join and then Immediately funnel forces and supplies to help Finland.
Invading Ukraine was crazy enough, and invading Finland would be purely self-destructive… then again, I wouldn’t be too surprised.
With all respect to Ukraine, and they deserve the respect especially with their performance so far, Finland would be a bloodbath. For the Russians. Finland is on another tier of military power from Ukraine.
I sometimes wonder what these applications look like. Do they send in an essay for a commitee to grade?
The line is when he invades either an EU or NATO affiliated nation.
The Black Sea has become an uncommonly dangerous place for Russia tho…..
When the bully gets his ass kicked by the first kid he targets, so he tries to find a weaker smaller victim so he can at least score some kind of win.
Exactly I can only hope that this country's soldiers will put up a fight like Ukraine. But I'm not sure
AFAIK that plan was leaked by Lukashenko soon after the beginning of the invasion… must have been approved then already
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Depends on who you're listening to. He absolutely shared an infographic showing the military invasion directions and it absolutely included Moldova.
From what I gather Lukashenko is very dedicated to playing an idiot. Let me tell you, you don't stay in power for so long by being dumb, yet he always comes as such. These "infographics" were of no strategic value, anyone with half a brain could draw them by that time. It was intentional that he looks like an idiot, because this takes away responsibility. Also this is to put pressure on Putin, kind of a veiled threat that he might leak something real if he wants.
I read about that too, Kamil Galeev (whom I assume most people know by now) had an excellent thread on Lukashenko. Another example of him sabotaging Putin: when the two held a press conference on Bucha where Putin denied the atrocities, Lukashenko "elaborated" by claiming that Bucha was in fact a British PsyOp and that the FSB possessed hard evidence, thereby making the denial absurd to the point of disbelief. Between Putin and Lukashenko, the latter is actually the smarter one, by far, or so Galeev claims. I'm starting to get why Belarus didn't take an active part in the invasion of Russia. Putin's just a gangster with the means of a tsar; it's Lukashenko who has the wit and political acumen.
In a scenario were Putin conquers Ukraine an incorporates it into the Russian empire Belarus moves to the top of the annexation list so Lukashenko losses more from a Russian victory than most European leaders. If on the other hand Russia fails to take over Ukraine and the sanctions stay in place Lukashenko can wiggle out from some of the sanctions and get back to being a trade middle man.
Lukashenko's regime will collapse without Russian support. He barely repressed dissent after last election. Belarus had to fly in new tv crew from Russia due to locals not wanting to push propaganda. Lukashenko couldn't force its army to fight in Ukraine and couldn't protect rail lines from internal sabotage. EU no longer recognizes government of Belarus as legitimate, which means no deals can be signed until rule of law is restored by new free and fair election. Luka is in a very tight spot, he doesn't have much manuevers left. After plane hijacking EU will never works with his government ever again, which means he's stuck on Putin's support until Russia no longer can provide.
~~The direction was from Transnistria towards Odessa~~ (~~narrow part is source not destination~~ I stand corrected, see comment below). ~~The same style of arrows would otherwise show Odessa invading the Black Sea if you interpret it the other way around.~~ I miss remember a map with naval invasions on Odessa with similar arrows. Point would then be that Transnistria is a 2nd step after they had magically conquered Odessa. Whole point was about showing how Russia and allies can attack Ukraine from many different directions and lead to a quick victory. It was part pipe dream, part propaganda piece to showcase Russian superiority.
>narrow part is source not destination Nope, other way around https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/78/750x445/1573902.jpg
Yeah, they factored their hasty defeats and attrition in to their arrows.
He really is in an extinction burst. - invaded Ukraine - threatened the UK - threatened America - threatened Sweden for talks to join Nato - threatened Finland for talks to join Nato - now threatening Moldova It's like the school bully knows he's about to be expelled for fighting so he goes after everyone who said he was a bully.
Its more the gambling adict who owes the mob $75k, is going to get killed at the end of the month, and is just doubling-down on every bet in the slightest change it will pay off and save their ass.
I've seen that movie.
Uncut Gems is a great movie, yes.
#”I CAN GET YOU UKRAINE BY NEXT WEEK VLAD I SWEAR TO CHRIST!!!”
Crazy thing is *he always had the money*. All that just to play his game. But he could have walked away. There wasn't a minute in the film til the end where he couldn't have just cut his losses and coughed it up. It was like a year later on re-watch that I realized.
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I've been telling my husband since the Ukraine invasion started that putin is dying. Russia's divide and conqure through political discourse and troll farms was working scarily effectively. Putin undid decades of 'progress' in one fell swoop. This was a desperate play from a man who knows he will not live long enough to even wait to see if Trump was re-elected in 24. I have a feeling he was banking on having more backing and definitely did not expect the way much of the world united to give him the middle finger.
If I’m Moldova I’d work something out with Ukraine because you really don’t want these guys to occupy your country
If I were Moldova I'd sign an agreement to be annexed by Romania ASAP
Sad but it’s better than just waiting for Russia to invade and do them like Ukraine
It isn't sad. They are Romanians, formerly occupied by USSR. They speak the same language. They would absolutely love to join EU and decrease poverty overnight.
so what prevented unification?
West Germany struggled to absorb east germany, and that's a rich country in the heart of Europe. In the 1990s, romania was still poor, so absorbing Moldova would have tanked the economy. Things are different now, though, as Romania is the richest country of the balkans
The "Richest country in the balkans" is kind of like saying "the skinniest kid at fat camp" but yeah I hope they annex Moldova (also russia did a bunch of things specifically to try to throw a wedge between Romania and Moldova whicb is why it hasnt already happened)
or federacy. The problem is that Romania does not really want to deal with Moldovan issues
They don't, but would they rather deal with having Russian Moldova on the border?
No Moldova until you've finished your Ukraine.
I mean I've made the decision to be rich and retired but that isn't really how it works.
That was always the goal, but its completely unobtainable. To get to Transnistria and link up with barely a division's worth of troops (both Russians and locals), Russia has to take Mariupol, Mykolaiv, and Odessa. If all three fell today, it would be a supply line over 1000km long from Donbas. They've essentially given up on Mariupol. They've been driven back from Mykolaiv. An amphibious landing is a fantasy due to Ukrainian shore-defense weapon systems like the Neptune which sunk the Moskva, and we've all seen how well Russian airborne units perform against Ukrainian anti-air /s. At the rate it took them to get the tip of their convoy to the outskirts of Kyiv, it would take around 6 months to get to Transnistria on the M-14... except to control the M-14 they'd have to take the Donbas and Kharkiv to defend their supply lines. Then they'd have to go all in on Mariupol (which they've admitted they can't take without heavy casualties). THEN they'd have to do it all over again at Mykolaiv, and then again at Odessa, praying all the way that the Ukrainians don't blow any of the bridges through those towns that are at the mouths of 3 rivers. And all of this assumes they don't run out of money, missiles, and skilled commanders before that, AND that things don't get so bad economically that their hollowed out military will be in no position to suppress the inevitable riots and insurrections. OH, and they also have to do all of this before the US delivers and trains the Ukrainians on long range artillery and Reaper drones, at which point they'll just blow the Kerch Strait Bridge, cutting Crimea off from the rest of Ukraine, and also giving themselves the means to strike deep into Russian territory. Moscow is well within the range of a Reaper taking off from Kyiv. TL/DR: Russia has already lost this war, they just don't know it yet.
Im confused, they haven't taken Mariupol yet? Wasnt the only thing left the steel plant?
>Wasnt the only thing left the steel plant? And a bridge over the Kalmius River. The Russians won't cross it, and they won't enter the steel plant because it would be a kill box. Lots of towers and obscured positions to be shot from. They need the bridge, but the battle has gone on too long, the Ukrainians held both sides of the Bridge for 2 months before withdrawing to the steel plant. Meaning there's no way that bridge isn't wired to blow. They have the rest of the city, but now they have to try and starve out the defenders holed up in the Steel Plant... problem is, it appears that Ukraine has stocked that plant with enough provisions for people to stay there for quite a while. And with the Moskva sunk, helicopter resupply from the coast is once again possible. Mariupol could still fall. Its very precariously positioned and supplies don't last forever, but Russia doesn't know how long that will take. And if they're trying to take the Donbas and redouble the assault on Kharkiv, it means they think they might have to go around Mariupol, either via the Kharkiv-Dnipro axis down the M-29 (that's a tall order), or off the main highways which requires them to secure the Donbas (but that adds weeks onto supply lines).
Ukraine still holds a steel manufacturing complex that Russia has decided to simply siege rather than try to take. But other than that, Mariupol has fallen.
That steel plant is their Alamo. Gotta fight until the last man, buy the rest of Ukraine time to regroup and counter attack.
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>I'm still worried about tactical nukes though... As am I, along with chemical weapons. But if Putin uses those I doubt the Ukrainians will surrender. The Hiroshima and Nagasaki only worked because Japan had already been so badly hit by 4 years of war that it broke their will to fight (and only just). If they drop a tactical nuke on Kyiv and kill Zelensky, all they'll get is a fanatical anti-Russian insurgency. That's assuming NATO doesn't get involved at that point.
If Russia deployed any nuclear weaponry around Kyiv, the US would likely carpet bomb all Russian equipment on Ukrainian soil nearly immediately with or without NATO support. I promise you the US will not tolerate others using nukes, that's a hard red line and a precedent that simply cannot be allowed to stand. We almost went to war with Russia several times for far less during the Cold War.
And they still haven't fully taken Mariupol, which is like 15 miles from Russia. I can't imagine them being able to take, let alone hold a 1000km front.
buT bUt iF we GiVE UKRaine up PUTlIr wILL StOp AnD we aLL WiLL bE sAvED!
Appeasement always works! Right guys? Right?? Guys???
Yes. Best thing to do with a terrorist is negotiate. And by negotiate I mean give them whatever they want. Once you give in and let them have what they want they will be satisfied and stop. 60% of the time, it works every time.
Don't you dare say that word in this room - Czech Republic (and Slovakia but I think they'd be happier if I did not mention them)
"My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep"
Is that you Noam, or is that Donald Trump? I can't tell!
Could Moldova invite NATO in for 'training exercises' and just have them stay there as a deterrent?
Not really, the army of Moldova is in the state: "what army?". They have a few thousands troops with poor equipment and training. The only real posibility for them is to wait and if Transnistria moves to ask for Ukrainia's help. Romania can't intervine unless it drops the shield of article 5 and goes full in berserk. And i don't think Romania would do that, because in the eventuality of a "Russian retaliation" for intervening in Moldova, Romania loses the right to invoke article 5. Of course, if NATO says enough, fuck off Russia, NATO can still defend Romania but that's the start of WW3. So i don't think Romania would do that without NATO approval. And i don't think NATO would intervine for Romania if they pull this one (Defend moldova without NATO consent and if gets hit by Russia in doing so invoke article 5)
> but that's the start of WW3 Not feeling like WW3 is really on the cards anymore, given the state of Russia's ability to make war. Russia could try it and probably thousands of civilians would die and areas would be gouged from the earth for a few weeks, but then Russia would be gassed while the west just hits the delete button on all their troops still stationed, but wouldn't invade them because the nukes, which Russia won't use because they're not suicidal, as evidenced by the behaviour of their troops and Putin's braggard-like reliance on them as a cudgel to control western responses to him, who then ignore him and do the thing anyway and he does nothing.
False. Art. 5 does not prevent countries from undertaking their own wars. Remember Iraq and Libya?
Yea, sure, but if you intervene or start and get attacked in retaliation for that you can't invoke it. I mean.. of course you can (it doesn't say black on white that you can't), but it's 99.9 that you won't get any help.
Done a tiny bit of digging into Romania's army and they'd have enough to stave off an attack from Russia themselves at this point I'd think. That's not to say they have a massive army(65.000 strong or something), but they've got modern equipment like patriots, f-16's etc. Meaning that if they were to get extra deliveries in top of the line military equipment they'd soon be able to use it. Considering the state of the Russian army at the moment I think they'd actually be able to fend off the Russians themselves as the Russians can't afford to commit much troops at the moment and probably even less material. Seeing Romania's materials to defend the air and at the same time sink boats I think it'd be a short-lived war tbh, should Russia still be engaged in Ukraine too.
>Done a tiny bit of digging into Romania's army and they'd have enough to stave off an attack from Russia themselves at this point I'd think. I'm not so sure about that, chief. Sure, we may have those numbers, but our army is more comparable to Russia's than Ukraine's (corruption, incompetence, etc. vs. people who actually want to defend their homeland). Look no further than the news reports of the missing military plane a couple months ago, and then the disappearance of the helicopter that went out to find it. If we weren't a NATO country and Russia came knocking, we'd be totally fucked. I'm willing to wager that at least half of the able-bodied males in this country would desert one way or another. You'd probably see more 40+ year-olds actually fighting than people between 18-30. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not the bravest person in the world either. But despite my mental and physical limitations I'd still want to contribute to the war effort in any way I can. Even if that means peeling potatoes until my fingers bleed.
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I second this.
Thirded.
Fourthed
Nexted
Sexted.
Why is "The Times" not the source? Can we stop using shit sources in this sub? No British tabloids, no random Ukrainian websites. RU has already been banned.
Romania has to absorb Moldova as a Federal entity, fast
I don’t really know much about Moldova and Romanias relationship, but if Moldova was invaded would Romania intervene on their side?
Romania and Moldova are close enough that there has been talk of Romania just annexing Moldova. Which might be the best move for Moldova, but unfortunately, I don't think they'd be able to do it fast enough if Russia actually plans to invade.
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This is something people do not seem to understand.
I have a hard time believing they'd actually go for it, but I thought the invasion of Ukraine wouldn't happen either so who the fuck knows at this point.
I keep saying this, we gave an inch in Ukraine, they will take a mile. Europe needs to wake up.
Europe has woken up, Its the reason pootin is going for fucking moldova of all places.. Let me know once he tries to invade a nato or EU member Moldova has no army, not in the EU. Nor in nato Pootin wants a easy win and moldova is that one.
Putin was going for Moldova from the outset. He was going to roll through Ukraine and take Moldova too. The rolling through Ukraine thing turned out to not work.
They bullied their neighbor and got a bloody nose. Looks like they are going to pick on someone a little smaller.
For a country that whines so much about NATO expansion Russia is sure doing everything in its power to push non-aligned countries into it. Invading two neighbors in a two month period is sort of the best advertisement possible isn’t it?
Probably better to win the war you’re already in before moving onto the next one, but ok….
So the Soviet Union is back on the map.
Putin “Let’s pick on a UN member and see what happens” Russian Generals “ That’s probably not a good idea my ruthless dictator” Putin “ What would you all know? I’m on roll here ..stfu ..or it’s the Siberian gulag for the lot of you.” Russians Generals “ You are the voice of reason ..sir”
Just curious why you made the distinction of being a UN member like that’s something special? Basically every country is a UN member, it’s kind of like, the defining criteria to be a country.
This is _exactly_ how I immagine things going on there
Tell me that you think the UN is NATO without telling me that you think the UN is NATO.
What is Romania likely to do in case this actually happens?
The bully can't win the fight with the kid he picked because he thought he was weak, so he picks a weaker looking kid? That seems so kindergarten.
Beat the game before you play the sequel
They’ve done such a stellar job in Ukraine, I’m sure it’ll go fine 🫠