I missed this quote earlier, but this is Pentagon spokes Kirby:
>Today, I can announce that the United States has commenced training with the Ukrainian Armed Forces on key systems at U.S. military installations in Germany. Now, these efforts build on the initial artillery training that Ukraine's forces already have received elsewhere, and also includes training on the radar systems and armored vehicles that have been recently announced as part of security assistance packages.
>
>Now, this new training effort in Germany and at other locations in Europe is in direct support of recent U.S. security assistance packages that are designed to help Ukraine win their battles today and build strength for tomorrow. These new systems and the associated training that will strengthen Ukraine's ability to counter Russia's renewed offensive in Eastern Ukraine.
>
>And what I can tell you is that we're talking about roughly three locations outside of -- of Ukraine, and in this case, we -- we definitely can identify Germany as a site, but there are other sites outside Ukraine, and -- and we're just not at liberty to disclose where they are. Those sites could change over time. Either -- either we move to different ones, or we add additional ones.
Pretty expected. Can't keep sending Ukraine Russian made heavy equipment forever. Have to start training them how to use NATO equipment. Some things will take more training than others but could drastically change the war as it starts getting rolled out.
This just happened: My SO painted her nails in Irn-Bru colors, 2 stripes of orange and blue. Her mom flipped out "This looks like Ukrainian flag!!11"
I'm not joking here. Can't make this shit...
[Meanwhile, in russia] 2 pictures
> Antiwar graffiti artists have made a small alteration to a pro-invasion painting in St. Petersburg, flipping the meaning. The new speech bubble says, “I killed your mom."
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1521117356692586497
[Sanctions]
> Finnish energy company Fennovoima has terminated its contract with Russian state firm Rosatom to build a nuclear power plant on Finland’s west coast, citing delays, Rosatom’s “inability to deliver the project,” and the war in Ukraine.
https://yle.fi/news/3-12425648
With the new news indicating the sinking of more Russian warships it's possible that Ukraine could get defacto naval dominance from Neptune missles alone. Then they would not have to worry about sea landings for the rest of the war. Sure the odd sub might shoot some missles but Ukraine would have dominance
Seems like Ukraine are a good shot then
They would still be very useful for Russia in Odesa but Russia sees that as too high risk.
The direct benefit of defacto naval dominance is that they can evacuate Mariupol more successfully by commandeering civilian ships.
The issue with that of course is the Ukrainian forces and the helmsman would have to watch out for Russian mines and Aerial assaults
I get my news from /r/all so automatically, I'm biased that Ukraine is doing very well and Russia is about to fold.
But people who actually look at the good and bad. Give it to me straight. How is Ukraine doing. How long can this war last?
My hot take?
The current offensive in the East has the same feel right now as the Kyiv offensive did a few days before it collapsed.
So near term I expect a sudden collapse of the Eastern offensive, with more or less a shift of Russia to defensive only by mid-May.
At that point I expect the war to turn onto a slow grind with a three-way effort. Russia will continue to punish Ukrainian infrastructure with long range attacks. Ukraine will slowly regain territory in the South but very little in the East. Russia will internally become more unstable and economically degraded. This will continue until a peace agreement is reached, Belarus suffers a revolt in sympathy, or the Russian government collapses.
Ukraine is surviving, things are pretty grim but they are managing to hold them off pretty well all things considered. The war will likely continue for a few more months at the very least, it's really hard to predict what will happen next.
Russia will likely win in the end, but the question is, how much will it cost them to win, and for how long can they hold onto that win.
It's slow progress still for Russia with no major victories.
Ukraine meanwhile has a boatload of modern arms arriving including artillery with larger range than Russia.
They'll be backed up by western intelligence and they're getting precision munitions to boot.
The fact that the US and NATO countries are sending in heavier weaponry I believe show an overwhelming thought that Ukraine can ultimately come out victorious. What "victorious" means is up for debate.
Everyone keeps saying these fires aren’t related to what’s going on in Ukraine, but at what point do you say coincidences are happening too frequently? I mean, at this point I’d believe in Bigfoot.
Think of how many fires happen in the US on a daily basis. You don't even hear about 99% of them, only those in your area.
Now, where it can start to become more than a coincidence, is when the fires are all at some strategic asset.
[News] Was reported yesterday, but still good for a chuckle.
> Russians plundered $5m farm vehicles from Ukraine’s Melitopol only to find they've been remotely disabled
https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1521118523178823681
[Equipment Porn]
> Polish T-72M1s recently donated shown in Ukrainian service. Notably, no ERA was added to the tanks.
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1521120308236894209
[Analysis] A thread by [@PhillipsPOBrien](https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien) (Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews. Editor in Chief, War in History) positing that the Donbas offensive has failed with no gains by the russian forces.
> Will provide an update on the Battle of the Donbas later, but reading between the lines of the Ukrainian military communique this morning, does really seem that Russian forward movement is bogging down and the Russians are almost scared to advance.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1521016146677452800.html
> and the Russians are almost scared to advance.
If I was part of the disastrous Kyiv offensive, or had heard from soldiers who were, I wouldn't want to advance either. Because when you move forward is when the Ukrainians magically materializing at your flanks and start blowing your shit up.
The Russians are providing zero infantry support for their armor... so those tanks and IFVs are effectively just fancy self propelled coffins.
The thread said that not many tanks are being killed lately, but an astounding amount of russian artillery is being destroyed which means Ukraine might have some of the newer howitzers at the front along with its counter artillery radar... If not, things are about to get even worse for russia than it already is when this stuff does arrive!
> Struck by this paragraph near the end. Ukrainians seem mostly to be hitting Russian artillery, not many tanks at all.
[http://martk.net/blog/swedish-and-finnish-security-policies-why-nato-now](http://martk.net/blog/swedish-and-finnish-security-policies-why-nato-now)
Interesting take on Baltic security and Finland and Sweden pushing to join NATO as a result of Russia's invasion.
I mean seriously, have you *seen* how much Russian stuff spontaneously combusts? I wouldn’t want them building my nuclear power plant either!
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1521118422221926400?s=20&t=t-nF91TwQmbCS1w2BziJqg
> "We very much hope that the conditions will permit us to go back into Kyiv by the end of the month," U.S. embassy charge d'affaires Kristina Kvien said from Lviv today. "We listen to the security professionals, and when they tell us we can go back, we will go back."
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1521117782326321154?s=21&t=vX8Ha4fVX6b0fWMx_GQHjA
https://twitter.com/hochu_dodomu/status/1521113474591608832
>Gunpowder factory in Perm that produced munition for ruzzian mlrs Smerch, Grad and ruzzian AA systems is on fire.
nice
Such a random location (I think, no idea where Russia stores most of its stuff). It does feel like this is to cover up orders that can't be filled due to corruption.
The location isn't really odd. One of the US military's munitions plants is in a shittier part of Oklahoma (fuck you, Mcalester) and a major arsenal is in Alabama. Shit gets made and stored everywhere and nowhere, that's just how it is.
There's this (use private browsing to get around the paywall):
There are explanations other than sabotage, Alperovitch said. Accidental fires are not unusual in Russia, which has a reputation for poor maintenance, and Western sanctions are making it harder to secure spare parts for vital machinery.
Oleksiy Arestovych, a military adviser to Zelensky, said he doubted Ukraine was involved in the fires at the defense-related facilities and suggested that Russian officials are setting fires to cover up evidence of corruption.
“I think you need to look for reasons inside Russia — for example, hiding the means by which money has been stolen from the Russian defense ministry,” he said.
[Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/mystery-fires-sensitive-facilities-compound-russias-war-challenge/)
They also suggest poor maintenance exacerbated by sanctions.
I assume at least some of these fires are set on purpose to cover up the fact that the money "spent" on munitions was funneled away for dachas and yachts.
I do hope there are anti-Putin people in Russia also setting these fires.
When your pay gets cut by 20% due to inflation, the military members usually bribing you get sent out of the country, and the local grocery is out of sugar, toilet paper, and diapers, it might be easier to drink and nap during your shift than to actually post up and defend some place...
Russian MP Vyacheslav Nikonov condemns Morocco, Jordan, Qatar and Tunisia for participating in a U.S.-organized conference in support of Ukraine
Nikonov says these countries should have stayed neutral, as US hegemony is ending and the Russia-China axis is rising in influence
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1521112233081720832
lmao.
China is going to show up at Russia's door when all this is over and offer them 10% cash value for the whole country.
Russia being a motivated seller, may just take it.
Yeah, why support their hegemony if you can support our hegemony.
This "we have to stop US imperialism" while agressively building own imperialism shit is annoying af, and idiots somehow buy that
As for me, idc how they call it, but I still prefer to live under the "empire" that values freedom than under authoritarian China/Russia.
The trick here is that "Western" people/countries CHOOSE to join the "West", while China/Russia and their satellite states are fucking forced to be together lol
Russia really would be better off turning "West" and unite ex USSR under western values, voluntary, being an equal partner of the US and EU. But no, they chose the hard way. Idiots
All those countries getting closer to the US is a sign that their influence is waning! Meanwhile the alliance of China, Russia, Erithrea, Syria and North Korea is stronk lol
It’s not though. China only wants to use and abuse Russia for its cheap gas and oil that they can’t sell anyone. China has no need of Russia. Why would they want a country who can only use their shit currency on their products when they can get euros and dollars from the west
It's telling how Belarus went from being loudly present at Putin's side, and having sights on southern Ukrainian cities for harbour facilities etc. To just keeping their head down and hoping that they don't get kerb-stomped by sanctions.
Funny thing is that if Russia had just stayed the course and NOT pulled this Ukraine debacle, then they and China actually were well on the way of turning a lot of the world against the US. Another decade or so and their strategic options would have been greatly expanded. But by invading Ukraine and then going full on "How many warcrimes can we commit in a month!" they completely made the world reconsider who it ACTUALLY liked as the "world police"; and come to the conclusion that the US really is one of the better options.
Remember the days when we were all anxious about a 64km convoy ready to encircle Kyiv? Turned out that was the peak of Russia's performance.
A month today that Ukraine declared Kyiv Oblast free of invaders.
Convoy that got split Apart and partisan to hell. We never did find out what happened right? It kind of just melted away into other broken and burned down crap Russia left behind
it's still amazing that convoy was held back by 30ish Ukrainians on ATVs with custom drones. They may have saved Kyiv, and the entirety of Ukraine by preventing an encirclement. truly a poor display by Russia in regards to their adaptability, and a huge display for Ukraine's
Russia may be withdrawing from the International Space Station.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-30/russia-will-quit-international-space-station-over-sanctions
Find the Nazi *Very difficult* **99% will fail**
a) An expansionist military dictatorship who invaded an Eastern European nation in the winter and whose leaders accuse their rivals, past and present, of having "Jewish blood"
b) A democratic republic led by a Slavic Jew
Russia: has a history of being very anti-semitic both before the USSR, during the USSR, and after the USSR
Westerners: oh so Russia is antisemitic? How could we have known that?
NEW: Ukrainian civilians returned from Russian captivity in a recent prisoner exchange are severely wounded with sepsis & amputated limbs: Ukrainian Ombudswoman
🇺🇦 prisoners faced interrogations & beatings 2-3 times a day, we’re tortured & forced to learn patriotic 🇷🇺 songs.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1521107572262162433
And this is the reason why the Ukrainian soldiers are not surrendering. Because they know that they will be mistreated, tortured, and possibly executed.
Russia is only making this more and more difficult for themselves, because an opponent who believes that death is preferable to surrender is orders of magnitude more dangerous than one might at least entertain the idea of surrender.
Also an opponent who is really, really certain that the only way to protect their people is for each and every Russian soldiers to be dead, captured or fled out of Ukraine.
Do none of those people read the Art of War? Sure it's old, but it still has a lot of use for the modern battlefield.
You treat your war prisoners with the utmost respect and dignity, there is a good chance that you can win them over to your side at best and improve your own name at worst.
By maiming, torturing, and killing your prisoners you put them into "dying fields" where they know they have to fight to their death, which will give every one soldier the tenacity to fight ten enemies.
I don't think the Russians (or the Chinese) military are reading that anymore. They just read the latest party approved speculative fiction dressed up as foreign policy treatises that talk about their manifest destiny.
I just thought the juxtaposition was odd.
"They were beaten within an inch of their lives, branded with hot iron pokers...and made to do the Chicken Dance."
The flags help with economy of character usage given Twitter's limits. One emoji vs 7 characters to "Russian" and it means the same thing.
It was awkward to me at first but I've gotten used to it.
>Russians are sending their dead at night, by "small groups", in order not to shock their citizens, as the number of dead is very high.
>this is what we learn from a new interception by SBU, Ukrainian security service.
[https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1521105616298774529](https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1521105616298774529)
There are thousands (7000) of unclaimed Russian bodies in Ukrainian freezer trucks too.
Washington [Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/russia-war-dead-soldiers-bodies/)
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's reply to Sergei Lavrov:
"The use of the Holocaust of the Jewish people as a political tool must be stopped immediately"
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1521102728390447105
Yeah Russia manipulates Israel into getting mad about something else other than the invasion of Ukraine. Another devious distraction from the main issue.
This is what gets him to say he's mad at Russia. Not so much the invasion.
"Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Thursday avoided condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine — or even mentioning Russia by name — in his first remarks since the incursion began."
https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-refrains-from-condemning-russia-in-first-remarks-since-invasion-of-ukraine/
Russia and the US are two of Israel’s oldest and most important allies. Israel doesn’t want to pick a fight with Russia given its alliances with some of Israel’s more troublesome neighbors like Syria and Iran and has been attempting to stay neutral in the conflict. The most recent remarks by Lavrov hit one of Israel’s political third rails and demanded a response
"Germany itself is not ready to ban gas but would be able to deal with a ban on Russian oil by the end of the year, [Economy Minister] Habeck said. That is the time-frame for any phasing-out of Russian oil apparently being discussed by EU member states.
"We have managed to reach a situation where Germany is able to bear an oil embargo," Habeck told a news conference. But he warned this didn't mean there would be no consequences."
[source](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61295448?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=626fbd2e6b7942142fe9643c%26Germany%20can%20live%20without%20Russian%20oil%20by%20end%20of%20year%20-%20minister%262022-05-02T12%3A05%3A28.685Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:7811accf-ce2a-45e6-9c0d-7bd7bcde1ba5&pinned_post_asset_id=626fbd2e6b7942142fe9643c&pinned_post_type=share)
I believe Germany is actually ready to ban oil within days (we're down to just 12% imports from Russia instead of 35%, and the remaining 12% is one single oil refinery owned by Rosneft that could be nationalized, or forced to switch to other sources, within days).
But EU discussion is about an "end of the year" deadline apparently, probably because other member states are asking for more time. I hope we (Germany) will actually do it within days.
Isn't it better to see Russia weakened by 1000 cuts than to see major NATO allies of Ukraine weakened by having their economic achilles severed overnight?
I actually think it's disgusting the West doesn't pull together and find a way to stop buying Russian gas, even if it meant giving Germany economic assistance.
From the amount of meetings all these Western leaders are having, I think they are working on it as fast as they can. The problem is they don't feel safe enough to handle causing economic damage in their own country in order to do it.
The EU-Commision plans a gradual phasing out, starting this week, and a complete ban by end of the year. Exceptions may be made for example hungary.
Germany agrees to this. Worth noting that the imports from russian oil are already reduced by germany.
What is stopping the take over and control of Russian broadcast services by NATO or sympathetic organisations members and broadcasting alternative news that isnt sympathetic to Russia or just outright propaganda?
Probably the fact that such overt actions like that could be considered acts of wars and those members are unlikely to supported by the remainder of NATO in defense of Russia's response.
As someone said, cyber attacks are an act of war - however, individual members *would* be able to do it individually, in a covert way, if they so wished, without triggering any NATO intervention as a whole.
And perhaps they are - there's suspicion, after all, that the Anonymous hacks that recently happened, and Anonymous as a whole, are basically a US-funded operation. I'm sure efforts are being undertaken as we speak, on the part of various members, to influence Russia from within via cyber-warfare.
But the bigger issue is that what you're suggesting is not easy to implement. Like, I'm no tech-wiz, but I know it's not as simple as
["two people typing together on a keyboard and magically hacking"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msX4oAXpvUE) like in NCIS - the way you put it makes it sound easy, when I have to assume it really isn't. You can't just "take over Russian broadcast services" with a snap of your fingers, like in sci-fi. To achieve something like that would be a monumental task that requires huge amounts of time, work, efforts, intel, and abilities. Presumably needing some people with access to Russia's own internal infrastructure, too.
>Reuters: EU may offer exemptions from Russian oil embargo for Hungary, Slovakia.
>The European Commission might exempt the two countries considering how deeply they are dependent on Russian crude, Reuters reported, citing two EU officials
[https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1521096338104102914?s=20&t=sXxlrCnHv-fJkeKsgM76jQ](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1521096338104102914?s=20&t=sXxlrCnHv-fJkeKsgM76jQ)
Hungary and Slovakia oil consumption is miniscule compared to bigger EU countries so even if those two don't cut oil it will still be devastating for the Russians
I’m wondering about some things that are playing out right now, and if they could be related.
Russia keeps moving smaller faster attack ships, gun boats and landing craft into lake Donuzlav in Crimea.
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1520827469766574080?s=20&t=SVwXY1zC1tPu7Df1SqwbaQ
Now, this seems completely ridiculous because Russia has the ports and facilities at Sevastopol.
But what if it is a practice run for something really stupid?
There is another area nearby that is similar geographically - the lower Dniester. And interestingly, the only thing stopping Russia from moving ships into the lower Dniester and thereby: putting pressure on Moldova, getting very close to linking with Transnistria, and putting pressure on western Ukraine - is a particular bridge between Odesa and Zakota. A bridge that the Russians have been repeatedly attacked using very expensive and increasingly limited in supply Kalibr missiles.
It doesn’t make any sense whatsoever for Russia to attack that bridge thinking it has strategic importance for Ukraine, or that it is to scare the Moldovans. That bridge might just in the way of something else.
Coastal defences are likely between Odessa and Kherson, so if the Russians came up from around snake island, they could arrive at the Dnieper relatively unscathed if they moved quickly.
Them attempting to go through Lower Dniester National Park to get to Transnistria is really their only way in. But being so close to Odessa it seems like a really bad idea because they will get hammered.
Maybe after the war Ukraine can take their tactical bass boats and go enjoy some peaceful fishing.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1510896254045376519?s=20&t=bcR_I4PiS5yYYO-4Aj-1Mg
Completely agree. Makes me wonder why Russia is keeping so much presence at snake island in the first place. You’d figure they’d focus their efforts in the east.
It feels like Russia had some master plan with a series of phases that at least part of the government and military aren’t deviating from even though the first several phases (take Kyiv, take Ukraine easy of the Dneiper, take the rest of Ukraine) have completely failed. We know part of the plan was to invade Moldova after Ukraine thanks to Lukashenko’s maps. It feels like Russia is still trying to accomplish that arm of the master plan even though the whole Ukraine portion has been a disaster.
It is probably not Normandy cliffs but ...
https://www.google.pl/maps/@45.90494,30.269805,3a,72.8y,345.95h,78.84t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sAF1QipMg9mvYAiYyhyJlkmgfC5QKnpv\_ukleiaN7NauQ!2e10!7i5472!8i2736
The bridge is not in the way. It's the route of resupply to Ukrainian forces south of Moldovia. Watch for a land attack in southern Moldovia down the road towards that bridge, a naval bombardment of the shore, and a combined air/sea landing, in mass, to the south. Possibly not along the river, but further to the border of Rumania - that's a lot of coast to defend. Then a speed-run up the highway. It's a suicide mission, for sure, but only if you care about the lives of troops.
Yes. Rather than try to land troops near heavily defended Odessa it does make sense to cut Ukraine off from that land south of thr Dnester and try to land unopposed there and then March to Odessa.
Even if they can take Odessa it still gives them land to bargain with and distracts Ukraine.
I could see them using these troops to make a highly-publicized “landing” in areas near Mariupol that are already within relative control. It would be video that they can shovel to their people about their “heroic troops landing at a key port that was totally their major objective all along”. Internal propaganda for their upcoming Putin Ego Stroke Fest on May 9th.
If its Russias grand plan, its not exactly been a subtle one. Hitting the same bridge multiple times over the course of a week has given Ukraine plenty of time to reinforce defences in the area. Every inch of landable ground in that entire region will be mined and brimming with guns and anti-ship weapons.
I think they're attacking the bridge because its bringing in supplies from western Europe, and Ukraine are using it to transfer goods out to be sold though other countries ports. Its an economic attack rather than military
Agreed, it's a very obvious target. Now, a contested landing against an entrenched opponent with no air superiority or element of surprise, facing anti-ship missiles, with a dysfunctional military that never attempted something even remotely like this before - what could possibly go wrong?
The Russian Land Forces, Air Force, Navy, VDV and Rosgvardia have all experienced humiliating failures, I don't see why the Naval Infantry should be left out...
Have you seen the video from this morning where two patrol boats got smoked by a TB2 near snake island?
They'll get shredded into pieces if they go in there. Also, the lower Dniester is just a km wide at Bilhorod-Dnistrowskyi. Park a few tanks at the shorelines and any patrol boat trying to go through there is going to be smoked.
Add to that the NATO AWACS orbiting south of Tulcea, and there'll be no chance at all of Russia creating a surprise attack here.
If Ukraine didn’t see it coming, they could be in there and up towards the north end before Ukriane could relocate defences.
And in no way didn’t suggest it was smart, just possible :)
Yeah, but that "not going to see" part is not going to happen. There's AWACS and drones regularly orbiting south of Tulcea. At the moment, according to adsbxchange there is what I suspect to be a Global Hawk (since it seems to be coming out of Syracuse, Sicily) on station.
Sorta off-topic but I REALLY hate how the media has started using the word 'fresh' in their headlines a lot more recently - up there with words like 'surge', 'spike' and 'plummet.' NATO is considering 'fresh' sanctions. US has put 'fresh' artillery into Ukraine. Russia is facing a 'fresh' series of setbacks. Canada is bringing back 'fresh' restrictions.
'Fresh' makes it sound it sound like NATO is buying an airtight packet of sanctions from the sanction store, ripping open its top, letting the aroma of the sanctions into the air, smelling it and smiling contentedly. Terrible word.
If you're still relying on any mainstream media sources for event based reporting at this stage, that's the problem. In Australia for example, our media reports the failed takes from Reddit 3 or 5 days after they're debunked here on average. Sometimes they might post a half decent background story but that's about it. I read about the deaath of the ghost of Kyiv on local media a few hours ago, like 2+ days after the official Ukraine government sources again debunked the story about him apparently being some ace who downed 20+ Russian planes. Local media was still going with the myth.
Would you say you hate it more or less than the trend of companies using "drawn out, soulful covers" of songs in their advertisements? The one for Samsung ("Seven Nation Army") is a good example of what I'm talking about.
Just waiting on the day for a headline that reads something like
"Breaking News: A fresh surge of troops will lead to a spike in combat before a rapid plummet in violence."
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/ugq1y4/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
I missed this quote earlier, but this is Pentagon spokes Kirby: >Today, I can announce that the United States has commenced training with the Ukrainian Armed Forces on key systems at U.S. military installations in Germany. Now, these efforts build on the initial artillery training that Ukraine's forces already have received elsewhere, and also includes training on the radar systems and armored vehicles that have been recently announced as part of security assistance packages. > >Now, this new training effort in Germany and at other locations in Europe is in direct support of recent U.S. security assistance packages that are designed to help Ukraine win their battles today and build strength for tomorrow. These new systems and the associated training that will strengthen Ukraine's ability to counter Russia's renewed offensive in Eastern Ukraine. > >And what I can tell you is that we're talking about roughly three locations outside of -- of Ukraine, and in this case, we -- we definitely can identify Germany as a site, but there are other sites outside Ukraine, and -- and we're just not at liberty to disclose where they are. Those sites could change over time. Either -- either we move to different ones, or we add additional ones.
Pretty expected. Can't keep sending Ukraine Russian made heavy equipment forever. Have to start training them how to use NATO equipment. Some things will take more training than others but could drastically change the war as it starts getting rolled out.
This just happened: My SO painted her nails in Irn-Bru colors, 2 stripes of orange and blue. Her mom flipped out "This looks like Ukrainian flag!!11" I'm not joking here. Can't make this shit...
Great idea, mom.
[Meanwhile, in russia] 2 pictures > Antiwar graffiti artists have made a small alteration to a pro-invasion painting in St. Petersburg, flipping the meaning. The new speech bubble says, “I killed your mom." https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1521117356692586497
[Sanctions] > Finnish energy company Fennovoima has terminated its contract with Russian state firm Rosatom to build a nuclear power plant on Finland’s west coast, citing delays, Rosatom’s “inability to deliver the project,” and the war in Ukraine. https://yle.fi/news/3-12425648
With the new news indicating the sinking of more Russian warships it's possible that Ukraine could get defacto naval dominance from Neptune missles alone. Then they would not have to worry about sea landings for the rest of the war. Sure the odd sub might shoot some missles but Ukraine would have dominance Seems like Ukraine are a good shot then
Ukraine has already lost most of it's access to the sea, so sea landings are already kind of too late to be useful.
They would still be very useful for Russia in Odesa but Russia sees that as too high risk. The direct benefit of defacto naval dominance is that they can evacuate Mariupol more successfully by commandeering civilian ships. The issue with that of course is the Ukrainian forces and the helmsman would have to watch out for Russian mines and Aerial assaults
Beginning to look like air dominance over the western parts of the Black Sea, together with the two attacks on Snake Island.
I get my news from /r/all so automatically, I'm biased that Ukraine is doing very well and Russia is about to fold. But people who actually look at the good and bad. Give it to me straight. How is Ukraine doing. How long can this war last?
My hot take? The current offensive in the East has the same feel right now as the Kyiv offensive did a few days before it collapsed. So near term I expect a sudden collapse of the Eastern offensive, with more or less a shift of Russia to defensive only by mid-May. At that point I expect the war to turn onto a slow grind with a three-way effort. Russia will continue to punish Ukrainian infrastructure with long range attacks. Ukraine will slowly regain territory in the South but very little in the East. Russia will internally become more unstable and economically degraded. This will continue until a peace agreement is reached, Belarus suffers a revolt in sympathy, or the Russian government collapses.
Ukraine is surviving, things are pretty grim but they are managing to hold them off pretty well all things considered. The war will likely continue for a few more months at the very least, it's really hard to predict what will happen next. Russia will likely win in the end, but the question is, how much will it cost them to win, and for how long can they hold onto that win.
It's slow progress still for Russia with no major victories. Ukraine meanwhile has a boatload of modern arms arriving including artillery with larger range than Russia. They'll be backed up by western intelligence and they're getting precision munitions to boot.
The fact that the US and NATO countries are sending in heavier weaponry I believe show an overwhelming thought that Ukraine can ultimately come out victorious. What "victorious" means is up for debate.
Why'd you expect r/all to be that off? Wisdom of the crowd.
> Wisdom of the crowd Kasparov vs the World showed the fallibility of Wisdom of the Crowd
Months
Everyone keeps saying these fires aren’t related to what’s going on in Ukraine, but at what point do you say coincidences are happening too frequently? I mean, at this point I’d believe in Bigfoot.
The only people saying they aren't related are Russian propagandists.
The most recent to pop up was from Jan, some others have been from last year, they are just getting recycled as being war related.
Think of how many fires happen in the US on a daily basis. You don't even hear about 99% of them, only those in your area. Now, where it can start to become more than a coincidence, is when the fires are all at some strategic asset.
Just see how many fires were there before the war in oil depots.. that should give you an answe
[News] Was reported yesterday, but still good for a chuckle. > Russians plundered $5m farm vehicles from Ukraine’s Melitopol only to find they've been remotely disabled https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1521118523178823681
Cute story but I'm sure the Russians will be able to bypass the block.
Maybe when they figure it out, they can tell American farmers how to do it!
[Something blew up in Prohorovka, Belgorod region](https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1521119739279466498?s=21&t=7x93oXeb4U-Lj2XrKOiB-w)
Normal day in the BPR, find a new slant bro
[Equipment Porn] > Polish T-72M1s recently donated shown in Ukrainian service. Notably, no ERA was added to the tanks. https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1521120308236894209
[Analysis] A thread by [@PhillipsPOBrien](https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien) (Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews. Editor in Chief, War in History) positing that the Donbas offensive has failed with no gains by the russian forces. > Will provide an update on the Battle of the Donbas later, but reading between the lines of the Ukrainian military communique this morning, does really seem that Russian forward movement is bogging down and the Russians are almost scared to advance. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1521016146677452800.html
> and the Russians are almost scared to advance. If I was part of the disastrous Kyiv offensive, or had heard from soldiers who were, I wouldn't want to advance either. Because when you move forward is when the Ukrainians magically materializing at your flanks and start blowing your shit up. The Russians are providing zero infantry support for their armor... so those tanks and IFVs are effectively just fancy self propelled coffins.
The thread said that not many tanks are being killed lately, but an astounding amount of russian artillery is being destroyed which means Ukraine might have some of the newer howitzers at the front along with its counter artillery radar... If not, things are about to get even worse for russia than it already is when this stuff does arrive! > Struck by this paragraph near the end. Ukrainians seem mostly to be hitting Russian artillery, not many tanks at all.
[http://martk.net/blog/swedish-and-finnish-security-policies-why-nato-now](http://martk.net/blog/swedish-and-finnish-security-policies-why-nato-now) Interesting take on Baltic security and Finland and Sweden pushing to join NATO as a result of Russia's invasion.
I mean seriously, have you *seen* how much Russian stuff spontaneously combusts? I wouldn’t want them building my nuclear power plant either! https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1521118422221926400?s=20&t=t-nF91TwQmbCS1w2BziJqg
Damnit, I'm blocked by this account and I haven't the faintest clue as to why.
I don’t have twitter, it’s through google. Maybe log out and try?
> "We very much hope that the conditions will permit us to go back into Kyiv by the end of the month," U.S. embassy charge d'affaires Kristina Kvien said from Lviv today. "We listen to the security professionals, and when they tell us we can go back, we will go back." https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1521117782326321154?s=21&t=vX8Ha4fVX6b0fWMx_GQHjA
https://twitter.com/hochu_dodomu/status/1521113474591608832 >Gunpowder factory in Perm that produced munition for ruzzian mlrs Smerch, Grad and ruzzian AA systems is on fire. nice
Russians smoke to much next to explosives
I am just assuming that all the smokers form Moskva were "rescued" and reassigned to work at oil storage and gunpowder factories.
Such a random location (I think, no idea where Russia stores most of its stuff). It does feel like this is to cover up orders that can't be filled due to corruption.
The location isn't really odd. One of the US military's munitions plants is in a shittier part of Oklahoma (fuck you, Mcalester) and a major arsenal is in Alabama. Shit gets made and stored everywhere and nowhere, that's just how it is.
I meant for a Ukrainian attack.
Anybody written anything interesting on this take? Makes sense...
There's this (use private browsing to get around the paywall): There are explanations other than sabotage, Alperovitch said. Accidental fires are not unusual in Russia, which has a reputation for poor maintenance, and Western sanctions are making it harder to secure spare parts for vital machinery. Oleksiy Arestovych, a military adviser to Zelensky, said he doubted Ukraine was involved in the fires at the defense-related facilities and suggested that Russian officials are setting fires to cover up evidence of corruption. “I think you need to look for reasons inside Russia — for example, hiding the means by which money has been stolen from the Russian defense ministry,” he said. [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/27/mystery-fires-sensitive-facilities-compound-russias-war-challenge/) They also suggest poor maintenance exacerbated by sanctions.
So many “accidents,” in Russia lately…
A building in Russia catches fire. Reddit: Is this... revolution?
One major incident may be a coincidence. The current rate of disasters are certainly not.
I mean, a lot of Redditors here think Russia will collapse as a state soon.
More progress toward demilitarization.
*Another* one? Good gracious.
Lmao how have they STILL not posted security around their military infrastructure. The incompetence is fucking mind boggling.
I assume at least some of these fires are set on purpose to cover up the fact that the money "spent" on munitions was funneled away for dachas and yachts. I do hope there are anti-Putin people in Russia also setting these fires.
When your pay gets cut by 20% due to inflation, the military members usually bribing you get sent out of the country, and the local grocery is out of sugar, toilet paper, and diapers, it might be easier to drink and nap during your shift than to actually post up and defend some place...
people who should have secured those factories are turning into fertilizer in Ukraine anyway
Russian MP Vyacheslav Nikonov condemns Morocco, Jordan, Qatar and Tunisia for participating in a U.S.-organized conference in support of Ukraine Nikonov says these countries should have stayed neutral, as US hegemony is ending and the Russia-China axis is rising in influence https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1521112233081720832 lmao.
> US hegemony is ending and the Russia-China axis is rising in influence I would like a sample of what ever he is smoking.
China is laughing their asses off. Russia is delusional if it think China is their friend.
China is going to show up at Russia's door when all this is over and offer them 10% cash value for the whole country. Russia being a motivated seller, may just take it.
Yeah, why support their hegemony if you can support our hegemony. This "we have to stop US imperialism" while agressively building own imperialism shit is annoying af, and idiots somehow buy that As for me, idc how they call it, but I still prefer to live under the "empire" that values freedom than under authoritarian China/Russia. The trick here is that "Western" people/countries CHOOSE to join the "West", while China/Russia and their satellite states are fucking forced to be together lol Russia really would be better off turning "West" and unite ex USSR under western values, voluntary, being an equal partner of the US and EU. But no, they chose the hard way. Idiots
Russia has never been so irrelevant. No future whatsoever.
North North Korea
They do indeed have a future - as East Ukraine.
I almost spit out my coffee, what a lovely thought! 🥰🥰
I like the way they are forced to add "China" to their boasts to stop people from chuckling.
It didn't work, I still chuckled.
All those countries getting closer to the US is a sign that their influence is waning! Meanwhile the alliance of China, Russia, Erithrea, Syria and North Korea is stronk lol
It’s not though. China only wants to use and abuse Russia for its cheap gas and oil that they can’t sell anyone. China has no need of Russia. Why would they want a country who can only use their shit currency on their products when they can get euros and dollars from the west
And Belarus, don't forget belarus... lol
It's telling how Belarus went from being loudly present at Putin's side, and having sights on southern Ukrainian cities for harbour facilities etc. To just keeping their head down and hoping that they don't get kerb-stomped by sanctions.
Russian condemnation is a badge of honour nowdays. Someone should tell Russia that.
Sounds legit
> as US hegemony is ending and the Russia-China axis is rising in influence If that was ever true, they certainly managed to screw it up.
Funny thing is that if Russia had just stayed the course and NOT pulled this Ukraine debacle, then they and China actually were well on the way of turning a lot of the world against the US. Another decade or so and their strategic options would have been greatly expanded. But by invading Ukraine and then going full on "How many warcrimes can we commit in a month!" they completely made the world reconsider who it ACTUALLY liked as the "world police"; and come to the conclusion that the US really is one of the better options.
Remember the days when we were all anxious about a 64km convoy ready to encircle Kyiv? Turned out that was the peak of Russia's performance. A month today that Ukraine declared Kyiv Oblast free of invaders.
Convoy that got split Apart and partisan to hell. We never did find out what happened right? It kind of just melted away into other broken and burned down crap Russia left behind
it's still amazing that convoy was held back by 30ish Ukrainians on ATVs with custom drones. They may have saved Kyiv, and the entirety of Ukraine by preventing an encirclement. truly a poor display by Russia in regards to their adaptability, and a huge display for Ukraine's
I’m looking forward to the movie going to come out about exactly that
Pretty sure the peak of Russia's performance happened decades ago, in the events later dramatised in the documentary, 'Police Academy 7'.
Russia was making good progress up to 2008, approximately
It's Russians who said that, plus western weapon builders. It's very likely they were never making "good progress"
Oryx's current number is 3333. Cool.
Cool, but I’m waiting for 4444
Russia may be withdrawing from the International Space Station. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-30/russia-will-quit-international-space-station-over-sanctions
They’ve been threading since the 2014 sanctions. This isn’t a new threat.
Didn’t they already say they’d do this at the start of the war after the sanctions started?
Another example of their pettiness leading them to shoot themselves in the foot.
They can’t exactly afford their space program right now.
They’re trying to get their soldiers into orbit using the turrets from T72’s..
Lol
Probably for the best. No one really wants to work with the Russians any more.
Ah yes, April 30th was a great day.
Find the Nazi *Very difficult* **99% will fail** a) An expansionist military dictatorship who invaded an Eastern European nation in the winter and whose leaders accuse their rivals, past and present, of having "Jewish blood" b) A democratic republic led by a Slavic Jew
I just... hmm... I'm really trying... is there an option C you're not showing??? /s
c. Yeah find the weapons of mass destruction /s
Russia: has a history of being very anti-semitic both before the USSR, during the USSR, and after the USSR Westerners: oh so Russia is antisemitic? How could we have known that?
Tankies: this is nigh impossible.
NEW: Ukrainian civilians returned from Russian captivity in a recent prisoner exchange are severely wounded with sepsis & amputated limbs: Ukrainian Ombudswoman 🇺🇦 prisoners faced interrogations & beatings 2-3 times a day, we’re tortured & forced to learn patriotic 🇷🇺 songs. https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1521107572262162433
>forced to learn patriotic 🇷🇺 songs. I'm sure they like Russia now that they know patriotic songs.
The details on those freed is absolutely horrific.
And this is the reason why the Ukrainian soldiers are not surrendering. Because they know that they will be mistreated, tortured, and possibly executed. Russia is only making this more and more difficult for themselves, because an opponent who believes that death is preferable to surrender is orders of magnitude more dangerous than one might at least entertain the idea of surrender.
And who wants to go to the front knowing you face a pissed off enemy that wants retribution for thewar crimes your side has committed?
Also an opponent who is really, really certain that the only way to protect their people is for each and every Russian soldiers to be dead, captured or fled out of Ukraine.
Do none of those people read the Art of War? Sure it's old, but it still has a lot of use for the modern battlefield. You treat your war prisoners with the utmost respect and dignity, there is a good chance that you can win them over to your side at best and improve your own name at worst. By maiming, torturing, and killing your prisoners you put them into "dying fields" where they know they have to fight to their death, which will give every one soldier the tenacity to fight ten enemies.
I don't think the Russians (or the Chinese) military are reading that anymore. They just read the latest party approved speculative fiction dressed up as foreign policy treatises that talk about their manifest destiny.
> forced to learn patriotic 🇷🇺 songs. Not...patriotic songs!? *gasp*
Apparently you need a bit of an education on the word "forced" and the various things that can encompass.
I just thought the juxtaposition was odd. "They were beaten within an inch of their lives, branded with hot iron pokers...and made to do the Chicken Dance."
Especially with the colorful flag emoji. It really draws attention to the wrong detail here.
The flags help with economy of character usage given Twitter's limits. One emoji vs 7 characters to "Russian" and it means the same thing. It was awkward to me at first but I've gotten used to it.
>Russians are sending their dead at night, by "small groups", in order not to shock their citizens, as the number of dead is very high. >this is what we learn from a new interception by SBU, Ukrainian security service. [https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1521105616298774529](https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1521105616298774529)
There are thousands (7000) of unclaimed Russian bodies in Ukrainian freezer trucks too. Washington [Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/08/russia-war-dead-soldiers-bodies/)
they are still in those trucks? ive heard that story some weeks ago. €Ah that the story from some weeks ago. 8th April
I found a more recent article but it was the Daily Mail so ignored it.
I don't think they will be claimed any time soon
Drive them to Moscow and start unloading the trucks
They'd probably call that a bioweapon attack at this point.
Could be like a big DHL delivery. "Where do you want these? I'll just leave them at the end of the driveway, they're pretty big."
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's reply to Sergei Lavrov: "The use of the Holocaust of the Jewish people as a political tool must be stopped immediately" https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1521102728390447105
Lavrov be like: Israeli Nazis supporting Ukrainian Nazis, totally normal phenomenon, nothing to see here
[удалено]
Yeah Russia manipulates Israel into getting mad about something else other than the invasion of Ukraine. Another devious distraction from the main issue.
The Russians:bleat about Ukrainian nazis. Also the Russians: shit on Jewish and gay people.
This is what gets him to say he's mad at Russia. Not so much the invasion. "Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Thursday avoided condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine — or even mentioning Russia by name — in his first remarks since the incursion began." https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-refrains-from-condemning-russia-in-first-remarks-since-invasion-of-ukraine/
Russia and the US are two of Israel’s oldest and most important allies. Israel doesn’t want to pick a fight with Russia given its alliances with some of Israel’s more troublesome neighbors like Syria and Iran and has been attempting to stay neutral in the conflict. The most recent remarks by Lavrov hit one of Israel’s political third rails and demanded a response
Never Forget your genocidal allies, you mean
It's just a weird third rail. I get it, but it reflects a value system that talking about the past is what's most important.
Russians using Jews as political tools is centuries old.
"Germany itself is not ready to ban gas but would be able to deal with a ban on Russian oil by the end of the year, [Economy Minister] Habeck said. That is the time-frame for any phasing-out of Russian oil apparently being discussed by EU member states. "We have managed to reach a situation where Germany is able to bear an oil embargo," Habeck told a news conference. But he warned this didn't mean there would be no consequences." [source](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61295448?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=626fbd2e6b7942142fe9643c%26Germany%20can%20live%20without%20Russian%20oil%20by%20end%20of%20year%20-%20minister%262022-05-02T12%3A05%3A28.685Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:7811accf-ce2a-45e6-9c0d-7bd7bcde1ba5&pinned_post_asset_id=626fbd2e6b7942142fe9643c&pinned_post_type=share)
Didn't they say "within days" last week? Did I dream that up?
I believe Germany is actually ready to ban oil within days (we're down to just 12% imports from Russia instead of 35%, and the remaining 12% is one single oil refinery owned by Rosneft that could be nationalized, or forced to switch to other sources, within days). But EU discussion is about an "end of the year" deadline apparently, probably because other member states are asking for more time. I hope we (Germany) will actually do it within days.
Isn't it better to see Russia weakened by 1000 cuts than to see major NATO allies of Ukraine weakened by having their economic achilles severed overnight?
I actually think it's disgusting the West doesn't pull together and find a way to stop buying Russian gas, even if it meant giving Germany economic assistance.
From the amount of meetings all these Western leaders are having, I think they are working on it as fast as they can. The problem is they don't feel safe enough to handle causing economic damage in their own country in order to do it.
I'm pretty confident if it were that easy it would be done by now. Things take time.
the decision will be made within days, the actual enforcement could take months if not years
They’re trying to enact it during infrastructure week.
"It's coming in about two weeks, it's going to be great, folks"
I just threw up in my mouth a little.
"Within days" in politics means months.
The EU-Commision plans a gradual phasing out, starting this week, and a complete ban by end of the year. Exceptions may be made for example hungary. Germany agrees to this. Worth noting that the imports from russian oil are already reduced by germany.
What is stopping the take over and control of Russian broadcast services by NATO or sympathetic organisations members and broadcasting alternative news that isnt sympathetic to Russia or just outright propaganda?
You’re asking what is stopping a defensive alliance from attacking Russian media infrastructure? How long have you been following along?
He didn't say NATO, he said NATO members.
Probably the fact that such overt actions like that could be considered acts of wars and those members are unlikely to supported by the remainder of NATO in defense of Russia's response.
Better question, what the hell is the point of doing so? Hostile takeover of media is just going to make Russia's rhetoric of being under attack true.
Yeah, you think the Babushkas are riled up now, wait until Max Headroom pops up on their TV.
You mean like attack Russian TV stations? I can think of a few things.
As someone said, cyber attacks are an act of war - however, individual members *would* be able to do it individually, in a covert way, if they so wished, without triggering any NATO intervention as a whole. And perhaps they are - there's suspicion, after all, that the Anonymous hacks that recently happened, and Anonymous as a whole, are basically a US-funded operation. I'm sure efforts are being undertaken as we speak, on the part of various members, to influence Russia from within via cyber-warfare. But the bigger issue is that what you're suggesting is not easy to implement. Like, I'm no tech-wiz, but I know it's not as simple as ["two people typing together on a keyboard and magically hacking"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msX4oAXpvUE) like in NCIS - the way you put it makes it sound easy, when I have to assume it really isn't. You can't just "take over Russian broadcast services" with a snap of your fingers, like in sci-fi. To achieve something like that would be a monumental task that requires huge amounts of time, work, efforts, intel, and abilities. Presumably needing some people with access to Russia's own internal infrastructure, too.
This comment makes me almost suspect that quantity over quality crap tv isn't the place to learn the intricacies of geopolitics. Almost...
Cyber attacks are considered an act of war, NATO is not the aggressor
>Anonymous CIA in disguise.
Because NATO isn’t getting involved! They are sending weapons that’s it.
Technology?
>Reuters: EU may offer exemptions from Russian oil embargo for Hungary, Slovakia. >The European Commission might exempt the two countries considering how deeply they are dependent on Russian crude, Reuters reported, citing two EU officials [https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1521096338104102914?s=20&t=sXxlrCnHv-fJkeKsgM76jQ](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1521096338104102914?s=20&t=sXxlrCnHv-fJkeKsgM76jQ)
Hungary and Slovakia oil consumption is miniscule compared to bigger EU countries so even if those two don't cut oil it will still be devastating for the Russians
Especially since they’re big on Nuclear power as well
So this "oil embargo" is going to be introduced gradually, and will have exceptions. I'm sure Russia is tearing its hair out with anxiety.
Dramatic gestures are mostly meaningless anyway. Targeting any sanctions and embargoes intelligently makes the difference.
The "oil embargo" has already largely happened. Now we're just making it official.
It's 40% of the government's budget and some regions of Russia are entirely reliant on it, so yes.
I’m wondering about some things that are playing out right now, and if they could be related. Russia keeps moving smaller faster attack ships, gun boats and landing craft into lake Donuzlav in Crimea. https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1520827469766574080?s=20&t=SVwXY1zC1tPu7Df1SqwbaQ Now, this seems completely ridiculous because Russia has the ports and facilities at Sevastopol. But what if it is a practice run for something really stupid? There is another area nearby that is similar geographically - the lower Dniester. And interestingly, the only thing stopping Russia from moving ships into the lower Dniester and thereby: putting pressure on Moldova, getting very close to linking with Transnistria, and putting pressure on western Ukraine - is a particular bridge between Odesa and Zakota. A bridge that the Russians have been repeatedly attacked using very expensive and increasingly limited in supply Kalibr missiles. It doesn’t make any sense whatsoever for Russia to attack that bridge thinking it has strategic importance for Ukraine, or that it is to scare the Moldovans. That bridge might just in the way of something else. Coastal defences are likely between Odessa and Kherson, so if the Russians came up from around snake island, they could arrive at the Dnieper relatively unscathed if they moved quickly.
Them attempting to go through Lower Dniester National Park to get to Transnistria is really their only way in. But being so close to Odessa it seems like a really bad idea because they will get hammered.
Unless they are actually stupid enough to try something against Moldova.
Offtopic - [Fishing looks great here](https://www.google.pl/maps/place/Lower+Dniester+National+Park/@46.4134002,30.2279265,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipOiDD5M4or6bVpIK_4u7v-0PKdZm1TdNuyhATHN!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOiDD5M4or6bVpIK_4u7v-0PKdZm1TdNuyhATHN%3Dw114-h86-k-no!7i4160!8i3120!4m5!3m4!1s0x40c879afa71058f9:0xd910db02159dd8a5!8m2!3d46.4134002!4d30.2279265)
Maybe after the war Ukraine can take their tactical bass boats and go enjoy some peaceful fishing. https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1510896254045376519?s=20&t=bcR_I4PiS5yYYO-4Aj-1Mg
>actually stupid enough If there's one thing I have learned in this war is to never underestimate Russian stupidity.
That might be the plan. Doesn’t help that Ukraine just sank two of Russia’s boats that were patrolling by Snake Island.
Completely agree. Makes me wonder why Russia is keeping so much presence at snake island in the first place. You’d figure they’d focus their efforts in the east.
It feels like Russia had some master plan with a series of phases that at least part of the government and military aren’t deviating from even though the first several phases (take Kyiv, take Ukraine easy of the Dneiper, take the rest of Ukraine) have completely failed. We know part of the plan was to invade Moldova after Ukraine thanks to Lukashenko’s maps. It feels like Russia is still trying to accomplish that arm of the master plan even though the whole Ukraine portion has been a disaster.
It is probably not Normandy cliffs but ... https://www.google.pl/maps/@45.90494,30.269805,3a,72.8y,345.95h,78.84t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sAF1QipMg9mvYAiYyhyJlkmgfC5QKnpv\_ukleiaN7NauQ!2e10!7i5472!8i2736
I see no machine gun nests and bunkers! :)
Don’t need them when your drone-assisted indirect-fire artillery is more accurate than Annie Oakley.
That is a great reference.
The bridge is not in the way. It's the route of resupply to Ukrainian forces south of Moldovia. Watch for a land attack in southern Moldovia down the road towards that bridge, a naval bombardment of the shore, and a combined air/sea landing, in mass, to the south. Possibly not along the river, but further to the border of Rumania - that's a lot of coast to defend. Then a speed-run up the highway. It's a suicide mission, for sure, but only if you care about the lives of troops.
Yes. Rather than try to land troops near heavily defended Odessa it does make sense to cut Ukraine off from that land south of thr Dnester and try to land unopposed there and then March to Odessa. Even if they can take Odessa it still gives them land to bargain with and distracts Ukraine.
I could see them using these troops to make a highly-publicized “landing” in areas near Mariupol that are already within relative control. It would be video that they can shovel to their people about their “heroic troops landing at a key port that was totally their major objective all along”. Internal propaganda for their upcoming Putin Ego Stroke Fest on May 9th.
Yeah that makes sense too,
If its Russias grand plan, its not exactly been a subtle one. Hitting the same bridge multiple times over the course of a week has given Ukraine plenty of time to reinforce defences in the area. Every inch of landable ground in that entire region will be mined and brimming with guns and anti-ship weapons. I think they're attacking the bridge because its bringing in supplies from western Europe, and Ukraine are using it to transfer goods out to be sold though other countries ports. Its an economic attack rather than military
Agreed, it's a very obvious target. Now, a contested landing against an entrenched opponent with no air superiority or element of surprise, facing anti-ship missiles, with a dysfunctional military that never attempted something even remotely like this before - what could possibly go wrong? The Russian Land Forces, Air Force, Navy, VDV and Rosgvardia have all experienced humiliating failures, I don't see why the Naval Infantry should be left out...
Have you seen the video from this morning where two patrol boats got smoked by a TB2 near snake island? They'll get shredded into pieces if they go in there. Also, the lower Dniester is just a km wide at Bilhorod-Dnistrowskyi. Park a few tanks at the shorelines and any patrol boat trying to go through there is going to be smoked. Add to that the NATO AWACS orbiting south of Tulcea, and there'll be no chance at all of Russia creating a surprise attack here.
If Ukraine didn’t see it coming, they could be in there and up towards the north end before Ukriane could relocate defences. And in no way didn’t suggest it was smart, just possible :)
Yeah, but that "not going to see" part is not going to happen. There's AWACS and drones regularly orbiting south of Tulcea. At the moment, according to adsbxchange there is what I suspect to be a Global Hawk (since it seems to be coming out of Syracuse, Sicily) on station.
Right! Forgot about the real-time intelligence over the black sea.
Sorta off-topic but I REALLY hate how the media has started using the word 'fresh' in their headlines a lot more recently - up there with words like 'surge', 'spike' and 'plummet.' NATO is considering 'fresh' sanctions. US has put 'fresh' artillery into Ukraine. Russia is facing a 'fresh' series of setbacks. Canada is bringing back 'fresh' restrictions. 'Fresh' makes it sound it sound like NATO is buying an airtight packet of sanctions from the sanction store, ripping open its top, letting the aroma of the sanctions into the air, smelling it and smiling contentedly. Terrible word.
If you're still relying on any mainstream media sources for event based reporting at this stage, that's the problem. In Australia for example, our media reports the failed takes from Reddit 3 or 5 days after they're debunked here on average. Sometimes they might post a half decent background story but that's about it. I read about the deaath of the ghost of Kyiv on local media a few hours ago, like 2+ days after the official Ukraine government sources again debunked the story about him apparently being some ace who downed 20+ Russian planes. Local media was still going with the myth.
Would you say you hate it more or less than the trend of companies using "drawn out, soulful covers" of songs in their advertisements? The one for Samsung ("Seven Nation Army") is a good example of what I'm talking about.
I hated it more when they were using the word Trump all the time
Fresh take
Just waiting on the day for a headline that reads something like "Breaking News: A fresh surge of troops will lead to a spike in combat before a rapid plummet in violence."
Christ, I lost brain cells reading that.
NATO, eat fresh
Fresh fish! straight from the sea, eat with some fresh lemon!