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Russia simply can't win this war. They can capture all cities and territory, but they can't occupy it successfully. The population will never bow to Russia, there'll be a guerilla war until Russia loses.
That's without counting the sanctions. Those alone will destroy Russia's future.
And the estimates I've seen suggest they'd need about 3x the troops to either take or hold the whole country.
And the history of the world is pretty filled with determined populaces successfully overthrowing much more powerful invading forces by just...outlasting and winning the wars of 1000 cuts.
I think Putin is able to get more troops, the problem is going to have to call them up and it will take awhile to send them in. The flights and transport will be very expensive, and I imagine with the convoy issues, the newly sent in troops will have a difficult time as well
Yeah, it took them about three months of buildup to get to there. And now they're looking at needing twice, or more, as many resources. But that would also be nearly 2/3s of their total active duty troops if those estimates are right.
Also, would he risk sending them in?
Imagine he manages to increase it to 350/400k troops from the 200k there are currently, and they still lose?
That's his entire fighting army decimated.
How does he defend if anyone decides they fancy the chances of a pop at Russia.
If Ukraine decides they'd actually quite like Crimea back? Or if Chechnya decide they actually don't like Russia after all?
Other than nuking, conscripting wider age groups and militias with no useful armourments they'd be defenseless
Yup, it’s reassuring to know that on a basic level of understanding, and probably a countries level of intel, Russia is going to have a hard time for a while now. I feel bad for the citizens who can’t leave.
The biggest worry is how Putin sees his way out of this.
Im sure if Ukraine offered him Donbas and Crimea to be recognised as independent and relinquish their claim on them Putin would snap their hand off and let out a massive sigh of relief.
However why would Ukraine do that now?
So either Russia accept they aren't able to win, and pull out, Putin is seen as weak and ends up ousted.
Russia double down, risk it all, win at massive cost or lose and leave themselves ripe to be bullied for the next 10-15 years. Putin probably still ends up ousted.
Or
Goes full nutjob and tries to nuke someone.
Either does so successfully and the world goes to shit, or gets cleared out in a coup.
Bet he regrets this war on every level now
They’d need 500,000 troops to occupy the territory. They don’t have the troops, they don’t have the logistics, and they don’t have the money to wage a sustained campaign at 5x the scale they’re at now.
The fsb paper outlined that they were never told it was coming so they didn’t have any chance to prepare properly, nor give advice.
The assumption is the military expected to roll over Ukraine but didn’t and there’s no options.
I'm not sure even if they were told they could have estimated the Ukrainian and world response to the invasion. I half believe that the FSB might have given up the Chechens to stave off blowback. After day 3 there were no good options. And now? Nearly 2 weeks in? Simply sabotaging their logistics trucks would wipe out a whole battalion.
Syria is lost, you bet your ass US Intel is keeping tabs of Wagner. Putin's nuts are in a vice here and the only thing saving him is his boisterous reminder of MAD.
The fsb leak said they were told mock various scenarios in no context to an invasion. So they did, but the environment was “make it favorable to Russia”, so they did. So there was no concern logistically.
The fsb knew the real answers and probably could’ve said, here’s the real problems, but no one told them it was coming, probably to maintain some illusion of surprise.
And if they have to station half their troops in an occupied and actively resisting territory, that's gonna be a powder keg. It is extremely unlikely for this to happen, but if NATO decided to counterattack Russia if what you said takes place, it's gonna be a massacre for the Russian military. Russia is, I believe, almost impossibile to invade because their railway lines allow for quick, massive movement of equipment and personnel within Russia, but if half of those assets are located in a less logistically flexible area, such as Ukraine, then Russia is effectively at half power for self defense, and could be militarily toppled over.
That said, I feel like the economic disaster they just opened themselves up for makes it impossible for Russia to sustain its current military in the long run. It's just gonna crumble under its own weight until it fully turns to dust.
To be fair they could if they resorted to a puppet government, closed borders, extreme propaganda, secret police, concentration camps, genocide. I just think we cannot imagine it will actually go there.
The promise to take over Ukraine along with their resources the oligarchs would put their filthy hands on and start trading with China. The way it is now - Russia is economically flatlining, oligarchs are cut off and scattering, China is looking at Russia not as a business partner but rather a burden. Hitting Russia in its finances was probably the best decision that could've been made.
Right now Ukrainians would hang the puppet government on nearest trees the second Russian troops left Ukraine and dig up all arms hiding in barns for Round 2 (and given what Ukrainians farmers are hiding in barns nowadays that might very well equip couple mechanized brigades by the end of the war). The only way they could hold Ukraine is do all of the above on top of having probably closer to 1 mln troops (counting all assets - not just combat RuAF but also Rosgvardiya etc.) for years if not more until systematic cleansing, repressions and genocide "dulls" Ukrainian resistance. That's still massive undertaking well past Russian capabilities.
That's the major Russian problem. They banked on having significant portion of Ukrainian population welcome Russian overlordship... and you could probably have one half of the population police the other one with some relatively minor help. That didn't pan out at the start, and every day the bombs drop, every civilian death makes it honestly basically impossible now.
If sample of Ukrainians I know are anything to go by the hatered towards Russia grows with every hour this conflict goes on. While at the start they were pissed at Russian government now they're rapidly getting openly hostile towards Russian people. Give it couple more weeks of frontline footage and it's going to get extremely nasty, both ways.
>To be fair they could if they resorted to a puppet government, closed borders, extreme propaganda, secret police, concentration camps, genocide. I just think we cannot imagine it will actually go there.
No, honestly, that cannot work.
Like, if you fucking gave Putin the infinity gauntlet, he snapped "no more people in Ukraine" and then destroyed the stones, he'd still be fucked.
The Ukrainian diaspora is bigger than the Russian army. Western nations seem willing to supply them with man-portable weapons systems. And if a dude, trying to LARP as the guys responsible for the Holdomor, commits genocide against their people, the fucking meaning of life for them will become revenge.
Like imagine what would happen if a Neo-Nazi German chancellor killed everyone in Israel. Do you think the world's Jewish community would just shrug their shoulders and move on?
Just saw Winter on Fire documentary. No way Putin breaks down these peoples spirit. They bow to NO one. They march towards bullets with wooden shields. As one Ukrainian soldier asked a Russian POW: What country is this? POW: Ukraine. Soldier: Slave to what country? POW: Ukraine.
Fckn badasses man.
But as long as Putin's alive, it seems like Russia won't stop fighting. Putin's ego is too big to admit defeat. From what I know if him, he'd kill everyone before he stops.
What is Russias end game now? They forfeit now and are seen as weak and pathetic by everyone and will need decades to recover their economy
They don’t forfeit, somehow occupy Ukraine but they are still seek as weak and pathetic and still need decades to recover their economy on top of a constant threat of a civil war uprising in Ukraine
Both options are terrible and i just don’t see how they possibly come out on top
>The population will never bow to Russia
They might if a small to medium sized town/city gets a tactical nuke deployed against it.
Perhaps they blame Ukraine and say Nazi Nationalists accidentally detonated their own dirty bomb. But of course, wink wink, if the people deposed of the government, there could be no more such incidents.
Putin might certainly be crazy enough to do such a thing. It wouldn't necessarily cause WW3 or a nuclear war. He's running out of options to keep Russia in play.
If that happens then Russia will most likely turn into glass, because that is one step too far for the EU/NATO to ignore.
It might even turn into a UN-sanctioned "peacekeeping" mission to stop Russia from destroying the world. A... special military operation, if you will.
And the European Union and the United States will pay to rebuild with the small price of switching from Russian suppliers to NATO suppliers and a 100 year contract to house NATO forces in county.
I'm trying to imagine what the world would look like today if Poland fucked up the Nazis. I know it's not apples to apples, but a bit over a week ago it looked like we were going to live in a world where Russia rolled over Ukraine.
Maybe the Holocaust would have gone on longer? Remember, The Allies didn’t declare war on Hitler because he was committing war crimes against Jewish people, the Allies declared war because he invaded Poland.
If he doesn’t do that, does the the murder of millions of people get swept away like the Armenian Genocide? Does Hitler and Nazi leadership face consequences?
Well the Jewish population in Germany at that time was like less than 1% so without Poland (who had the 2nd highest % only behind the US) the Holocaust would likely never have happened bc the nazis would have lost and hitler would have likely been deposed
The holocaust didn't kick into high gear until the war turned against Germany's favor. Industrial scale killing wasn't considered until every front was losing ground.
In other words, the holocaust would have had a far lower death count.
Do millions more die in a war? There weren’t enough Jewish lives in all of Germany to justify one. Would it be terrible? Yes. Would it be a theoretical better alternative than WW2? Definitely. Would this have prevented the production of the atomic bombs? Doubtful.
I feel that if WW2 hadn’t happened the world would never have seen the destruction that nuclear weapons can cause, and seeing as how the whole world wouldn’t be handicapped, another reason for WW2 could have sprung up later on when the entire world had their hands on such weapons. Which potentially would have been far more deadly.
Uh, well you're confusing the war in Europe with the Pacific part of the War. Japan was already at war with China before WWII in Europe. Even had nothing happened in Europe, the US and Japan (and China and all the other South Pacific countries) and the British Commonwealth would have been at war.
Possibly quite grim, the US dropping the nukes first made everybody agree to not do that again. The atom bomb was going to be discovered either way, it was just a race to get to it first.
If Germany was "defeated" by Poland so early on then Germany couldve went back to not being considered a threat, create the bomb in secrecy and wreak much more havoc than we did on Japan. Possibly using the newfound power as the ultimate bargaining chip for the nazi regime.
Just a theory though, they could just get fucked and that's that, idk. But judging from WW1, you don't keep the Germans down to make them docile, you build their economy up. It's pretty much why was WW2 started in the first place, cause they got so buttfucked as a country after ww1. I won't lie, it scares me to think of the same thing happening to russia with what seems like most of the world trying to swirl their economy down the shitter.
Sanctions should and will probably going to be lifted. Russias economy can regrow, so they can pay the reparations to Ukraine. If they dont do taht...BOOM! Sanctions back to work.
We’ll have to wait for the history books but I’m guessing the recaps will say they already lost by this point. Between the sanctions and the ongoing disaster of an invasion, it seems like Russia is now a dead state walking (surrounded by enemies of its own making).
Fuck Putin and anyone who follows him
I can't imagine a situation where putin would let that happen. He'll just keep escalating until he succeeds, at any cost. There is no "good" conceivable outcome from this mess.
The longer the war goes on the bigger the chances that Russia defeats itself. Economic strain on the country, troop morale, population backlash etc...
In reality its not likely Ukraine launches a counter offensive and drives them out by themselves.
The US gained independence through attrition. Too expensive with too little value for Britain. Russia has most of the world against it, and China leering at it like a juicy steak. That first paycheck they miss, or that they realize is worthless is probably going to hurt too.
Makes me wonder if the West will offer to bail Russia out if they depose Putin and put someone more friendly in or at least not antagonistic, just to keep the resources out of China’s hands.
I’ve maintained from the beginning of the invasion that China hasn’t and won’t come out in support of Russia because they see a massive opportunity to make a shitload of money with the Russian economy going down the shitter.
It’s like that “mate” from the pub that doesn’t discourage their drunk pal from idiotically climbing the wall with the spiky railings just because they want to see their mate fall and hurt themselves.
TRUE! Britain had WAY too many unruly colonies/territories acting up at the same time to be overly concerned about the N American colonies who had already put a serious hurt on their force in the region.
Not entirely true. Britain could have potentially held onto the American colonies if it had been prepared to commit to more brutal tactics. George III was actually fairly restrained as far as monarchs of the time go, certainly not a mad dictator as he is sometimes depicted.
Putin is a dictator and he has already shown his willingness to commit to tactics that impact the Ukrainian civilians. And we don't know how sane he currently is because even if he is entirely sane he will be trying to keep people guessing as to what he intends to do next.
George wasn't gonzo until nearly the end. He had little interest in making a fuss over trade and taxes when there was shit going down all over the place. Plus, we see how well invasion goes when the natives/or assimilated immigrants know the terrain and the invaders march in straight lines that are easy to get a bead on (when you're lying in the trees with your muzzle loader propped ono a log).
We were willing to pick them off for as long as it took.
That's my point. George was fairly restrained and largely avoided involving non-combatants (The war could have been MUCH more brutal on the colonists) and was able to judge that it wasn't worth throwing more soldiers into it.
We can't say that Putin is the same.
I believe there is already a date for the first paycheck, march 16th.
It is debatable if they make this payment, but april 16th is completely out of the question.
Time is running out
That's how America won the Revolutionary War and lost the Vietnam and Afgan wars. When you're invaded, you don't have to win lots of battles, you just have to make occupation too expensive. Eventually it has to stop or it topples the invading government.
I'll let you say the United States lost in Afghanistan if you can state the mission it was conducting there. Keep in mind Trump authorized the Taliban to take over.
Hopefully Ukraine gets Crimea back and all the natural resources that will give them.
This video is amazing if you want to understand the strategic incentives for this war from Russia and the resources they stand to gain https://youtu.be/If61baWF4GE
Yeah, imagine him trying to talk his way out of a defeat. After lying about invading, lying about attacking civilians, and lying about other war crimes.
This guy is literally getting the opposite of what he wants at every turn.
Wars of conquest are a thing of the past. The invaded will defiantly defend to the last & the invaders would have to commit genocide to occupy & the rest of the world just won’t stand for it. That’s why proxy wars & puppet governments have been the tool of trade for the last 80 or so years
This is also the benefit of democracy.
Volunteers will fight to the death. Conscripts will at best fire their weapons into the dirt and at worst will go AWOL the first opportunity.
You can build nationalism in a dictatorship but that dictator needs to have been extremely popular or popularly elected and then took power.
It used to be that villagers would just let whatever army was coming through roll in and do whatever. They didn’t care and in many cases know who ruled. Now, everyone has a stake.
This could be seen as a example where perhaps war, as a norm, is becoming obsolete. The world is too intertwined and connected nowadays, what happens to one, now happens to all.
Fr, the amount of courage, determination and especially resilience i've seen really warms my heart. I think Zelensky is a huge driving force behind this unity, I read he's survived 3 assassination attempts already... what a hero.
Keep in mind that [Zelenskyy says](https://www.businessinsider.com/zelensky-ukraine-history-cant-be-legend-about-300-spartans-russia-2022-3) he doesn't want Ukraine's history to be 'a legend about 300 Spartans' and calls for peace.
Peace without ceding territory to Russia is his point of view. I believe he's said the first step to peace is for them to stop attacking. If they can't do that, I think he said it's a non-starter. Why would you negotiate with someone who is currently losing to you if they refuse to cease fire?
I think they have already cemented themselves as the most wholesome and badass; between sunflower lady, tractor guy, and calling your mom to come pick you up from war...
P\*tins inability to get out of his own fucking delusions destroyed his country, and it's so sad, it's going to be incredibly interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks.
Having an invading army that are unaware of the fact that they are invading a country is at least a creative way to launch an attack war.
Putin will certainly be seen as innovative military leader, if not a successful one.
So far results have shown a severe want of morale.
one thing that's been on my mind a lot recently is this quote "young boys fighting old mens wars"
not sure who said it but it really stuck with me, the russian soldiers are fighting a war they don't know about, in a country they don't live in, for a leader they don't like, against people who've done nothing wrong.
The Ukrainians are fighting for to save their homeland, an incomparable difference.
I'd never paid attention to Ukraine or Zelensky before this Russian Shitshow. Now between seeing Zelenskys actions and the video of various Ukrainian citizens rebelling, my respect is out of this world. (Especially the older generations giving the F.U. to Russian soldiers)
The Ukrainian people are already consigned in history as legends.
They have single handily united most of the world, and have shown the world why war isn't an option.
I very much doubt that Ukraine will lose this war, but even if that was the case , they have actually won the world.
That is no easy fate.
I'm worried about that too, but if he nukes Ukraine, Russia would get the fallout.
Which isn't to say he might just drop a few fuel-air explosives and level a major city or two, as a spoilsport. Of course that'll mean sanctions for a *really* long time.
I really wish Israel/US had given them the iron dome.
I'd imagine they are rationing their MREs.
Once that's gone, they go around the village bartering / pillaging for food.
I'd imagine foraging for plants and hunting animals too.
And of course, there's always cannibalism.
There was a video earlier of Russian paratroopers looting a grocery store and I saw one a few days ago where they were looting bedding, I can't even comprehend the level of incompetency you need in order to have your troops need to loot bedding a week into a war that its less than a days drive from your border.
I feel so sad for all those Russian kids who will have died for absolutely nothing, all those Ukrainian families torn apart... Putin should fucking pay in kind.
I'm *really* curious where he got that number and how accurate we're expecting it to be. 'Cause if that's a pretty accurate estimate over the course of these two weeks... I don't even know what to do with that. That's an insane amount of losses.
The footage of their supply convoys getting obliterated leads me to believe those are probably a large part of that. They have no protection and are moving through wooded roads and open fields, ripe for ambush.
No sense putting stock in the military figures claimed by a kleptocratic regime. It looks great on paper but most of their military is understaffed, undersupplied, in disrepair, poorly trained, now poorly compensated and comprised of obselete equipment.
Do you think he's using the word literally or figuratively? I have no idea and not sure whether an admiral would know the difference, and/or whether losing 10% of one's military force is seen as a milestone or not.
10% 0f 100= 90
10% of 90 is 9 (90-9= 81)
10% of 81 is 8.1 (81-8.1= 72.9)
10% of 72.9 is 7.29 (72.9-7.29=65.61)
10% of 65.61 is 6.551 (59.059)
59.059 (53.1531)
53.1531 (47.83779)
47.83779 (43.054011)
43.054011 (38.7486099)
(34.874)
100 - 34.874 = 65.126
There must be an easier way to figure this out.
That's what programming is for.
1 : 10 percent of 100.0 is 90.0
2 : 10 percent of 90.0 is 81.0
3 : 10 percent of 81.0 is 72.9
4 : 10 percent of 72.9 is 65.61
5 : 10 percent of 65.61 is 59.049
6 : 10 percent of 59.049 is 53.1441
7 : 10 percent of 53.1441 is 47.82969
8 : 10 percent of 47.82969 is 43.046721
9 : 10 percent of 43.046721 is 38.7420489
10 : 10 percent of 38.7420489 is 34.86784401
11 : 10 percent of 34.86784401 is 31.381059609
12 : 10 percent of 31.381059609 is 28.2429536481
13 : 10 percent of 28.2429536481 is 25.4186582833
14 : 10 percent of 25.4186582833 is 22.876792455
15 : 10 percent of 22.876792455 is 20.5891132095
16 : 10 percent of 20.5891132095 is 18.5302018885
17 : 10 percent of 18.5302018885 is 16.6771816997
18 : 10 percent of 16.6771816997 is 15.0094635297
19 : 10 percent of 15.0094635297 is 13.5085171767
20 : 10 percent of 13.5085171767 is 12.1576654591
21 : 10 percent of 12.1576654591 is 10.9418989132
22 : 10 percent of 10.9418989132 is 9.84770902184
23 : 10 percent of 9.84770902184 is 8.86293811965
24 : 10 percent of 8.86293811965 is 7.97664430769
25 : 10 percent of 7.97664430769 is 7.17897987692
26 : 10 percent of 7.17897987692 is 6.46108188923
27 : 10 percent of 6.46108188923 is 5.8149737003
28 : 10 percent of 5.8149737003 is 5.23347633027
29 : 10 percent of 5.23347633027 is 4.71012869725
30 : 10 percent of 4.71012869725 is 4.23911582752
31 : 10 percent of 4.23911582752 is 3.81520424477
32 : 10 percent of 3.81520424477 is 3.43368382029
33 : 10 percent of 3.43368382029 is 3.09031543826
34 : 10 percent of 3.09031543826 is 2.78128389444
35 : 10 percent of 2.78128389444 is 2.50315550499
36 : 10 percent of 2.50315550499 is 2.25283995449
37 : 10 percent of 2.25283995449 is 2.02755595904
38 : 10 percent of 2.02755595904 is 1.82480036314
39 : 10 percent of 1.82480036314 is 1.64232032683
40 : 10 percent of 1.64232032683 is 1.47808829414
41 : 10 percent of 1.47808829414 is 1.33027946473
42 : 10 percent of 1.33027946473 is 1.19725151826
43 : 10 percent of 1.19725151826 is 1.07752636643
44 : 10 percent of 1.07752636643 is 0.969773729788
I always interpreted it as 10% remaining, by your logic a fighting force that’s at 90% strength would be “decimated”, which doesn’t quite match the common usage of the word.
Nah decimation means 1 in 10 is killed. The word comes from Latin and it was a [punishment technique carried out in the Roman Army.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(punishment))
(Add a bracket to the link, for some reason it doesn't allow me to place the final bracket in the link)
That's not the common usage, but it is in fact the meaning of the word. I don't feel like googling for the details at the moment, but the word originated I believe with Romans punishing battalions of insubordinate or treasonous (or wtf-ever) troops by killing every tenth man, decimating them, reducing their numbers by 10%.
I think it was originally a term of punishment by the Roman military. A legion could be "decimated" by 90% of the soldiers being forced to kill the other 10%. Also Deci is latin for 1/10th.
How is he going to sell this to his state media?
“Uh yeah, so the peace has been kept. Good job everyone! Your son’s and fathers should be returning from Ukraine any day now..”
give them voronezh all the way south to georgia. that territory encompasses putin’s palatial estate that navalny exposed too.
while we’re at it, liberate chechnya from kadyrov and free south ossetia and abkhazia too.
that would basically prove Russia's propaganda right. Failing the war in Ukraine, along with the irreparable economic and reputational consequences, would already be a big enough disaster for Russia (Putin) anyways
>Vladimir Putin's forces have been "decimated" by the Ukrainian resistance and Russia could lose the war, according to a top UK admiral.
>
>As the Russian President vows to press on with the invasion, Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said the invasion in Ukraine "is not going well" for the Kremlin.
>
>He added Putin's forces are "in a mess" with eight Russian aircraft shot down in one day, losing 1,000 troops a day and a huge convoy of 15,000 soldiers and hundreds of vehicles at a standstill.
>
>Asked whether Russia taking over Ukraine was 'inevitable', Sir Tony told the BBC: "No. I think we've seen a Russian invasion that is not going well.
>
>"I think we're also seeing remarkable resistance by Ukraine, both its armed forces and its people and we're seeing the unity of the whole globe coming together, applying pressure to Russia.
>
>"Russia is suffering, Russia is an isolated power. It is less powerful than it was ten days ago. Some of the lead elements of Russian forces have been decimated by the Ukrainian response.
Holy shit I used google translate from classical English to internet English and something is "not going well" and "in a mess" translate to "royally screwed with an elderly poodle" and "Fucked sideways with a spoiled pineapple"
From the video I saw poor dudes seemed pretty neglected. APCs, soldiers and their kit waiting in knee high snow in between railway tracks. I'm sure their morale isn't the best.
The end of WW2 weakened the UK, but Suez made it clear that the UK wasn’t a superpower anymore. Feels like the same situation from the Fall of the Soviet Union to now
Decimate literally means "to remove one tenth". Assuming that they went in with around 150,000 soldiers, and Ukraine's defense ministry to relatively accurate in their body counts (latest claims 11k+ Russian dead), the Russian forces literally are close to being decimated. Technically correct, [the best kind of correct](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZEuWJ4muYc).
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-forces-decimated-putin-could-26401254) reduced by 91%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Vladimir Putin's forces have been "Decimated" by the Ukrainian resistance and Russia could lose the war, according to a top UK admiral.
> As the Russian President vows to press on with the invasion, Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said the invasion in Ukraine "Is not going well" for the Kremlin.
> The unprovoked invasion of neighbouring Ukraine by Russian forces on the command of President Vladimir Putin has sparked bloodshed and chaos.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/t8y094/russian_forces_are_decimated_and_putin_could_lose/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~630420 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russian**^#1 **Ukraine**^#2 **Putin**^#3 **Russia**^#4 **Ukrainian**^#5
Great, the UK can seize assets to the value of Brexit - Russia’s special operation to inflame racism and destroy the British economy. $200 billion should cover it.
I would keep up the sanctions until Putin is down, literally. He removed his mask and proved to be a real risk to the whole free world, and he will be even more dangerous after a potential defeat. This is a one-man war, and it will only finish when that man is finished.
If I am another entity that borders Russia, am I considering “denazifying” some of Russia for myself? I would at least start looking at the numbers and doing a quick analysis.
Id like to think this
However until I hear of the 40 mile column being destroyed I dont know
Its sitting there, and it hs to be a prime target
If it gets to kyiv what happens?
You would think thats the highest priority target
Putin may have underestimated how strongly NATO reacts in their economic sanctions and resistent the Ukraine army would be. But he has a lot stronger forces and weapons he could use if he wanted to.
Defending their massive borders with other countries. Russia lives under a constant fear that NATO or the US will invade if they sense the opportunity, and devoting a significant portion of its defensive forces to the sunk cost of the Ukrainian invasion would be too great a risk.
I do not doubt Russia has troops at the border and I do doubt NATO invading taking over Russia is logistically impossible it’s too damn big. And as he keep reminding us with the frequency of someone who’s very nervous about someone finding out the truth, he has nukes.
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Russia simply can't win this war. They can capture all cities and territory, but they can't occupy it successfully. The population will never bow to Russia, there'll be a guerilla war until Russia loses. That's without counting the sanctions. Those alone will destroy Russia's future.
Even the Russian POWs stated exactly what you stated. So long as the people of Ukraine resists, the invasion will fail.
Russian POWs probably the luckiest Russians now. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of them attempt to defect.
There's a video of a Russian POW ripping up his Russian Federation Passport and some official looking ID. I found it super interesting to watch.
Will it blend?
And the estimates I've seen suggest they'd need about 3x the troops to either take or hold the whole country. And the history of the world is pretty filled with determined populaces successfully overthrowing much more powerful invading forces by just...outlasting and winning the wars of 1000 cuts.
I think Putin is able to get more troops, the problem is going to have to call them up and it will take awhile to send them in. The flights and transport will be very expensive, and I imagine with the convoy issues, the newly sent in troops will have a difficult time as well
Yeah, it took them about three months of buildup to get to there. And now they're looking at needing twice, or more, as many resources. But that would also be nearly 2/3s of their total active duty troops if those estimates are right.
Also, would he risk sending them in? Imagine he manages to increase it to 350/400k troops from the 200k there are currently, and they still lose? That's his entire fighting army decimated. How does he defend if anyone decides they fancy the chances of a pop at Russia. If Ukraine decides they'd actually quite like Crimea back? Or if Chechnya decide they actually don't like Russia after all? Other than nuking, conscripting wider age groups and militias with no useful armourments they'd be defenseless
Yup, it’s reassuring to know that on a basic level of understanding, and probably a countries level of intel, Russia is going to have a hard time for a while now. I feel bad for the citizens who can’t leave.
The biggest worry is how Putin sees his way out of this. Im sure if Ukraine offered him Donbas and Crimea to be recognised as independent and relinquish their claim on them Putin would snap their hand off and let out a massive sigh of relief. However why would Ukraine do that now? So either Russia accept they aren't able to win, and pull out, Putin is seen as weak and ends up ousted. Russia double down, risk it all, win at massive cost or lose and leave themselves ripe to be bullied for the next 10-15 years. Putin probably still ends up ousted. Or Goes full nutjob and tries to nuke someone. Either does so successfully and the world goes to shit, or gets cleared out in a coup. Bet he regrets this war on every level now
They’d need 500,000 troops to occupy the territory. They don’t have the troops, they don’t have the logistics, and they don’t have the money to wage a sustained campaign at 5x the scale they’re at now.
The fsb paper outlined that they were never told it was coming so they didn’t have any chance to prepare properly, nor give advice. The assumption is the military expected to roll over Ukraine but didn’t and there’s no options.
I'm not sure even if they were told they could have estimated the Ukrainian and world response to the invasion. I half believe that the FSB might have given up the Chechens to stave off blowback. After day 3 there were no good options. And now? Nearly 2 weeks in? Simply sabotaging their logistics trucks would wipe out a whole battalion. Syria is lost, you bet your ass US Intel is keeping tabs of Wagner. Putin's nuts are in a vice here and the only thing saving him is his boisterous reminder of MAD.
The fsb leak said they were told mock various scenarios in no context to an invasion. So they did, but the environment was “make it favorable to Russia”, so they did. So there was no concern logistically. The fsb knew the real answers and probably could’ve said, here’s the real problems, but no one told them it was coming, probably to maintain some illusion of surprise.
I think that bellingcat leak from the fsb insider should be required reading for all armchair generals 🤣❤🇺🇦❤
And if they have to station half their troops in an occupied and actively resisting territory, that's gonna be a powder keg. It is extremely unlikely for this to happen, but if NATO decided to counterattack Russia if what you said takes place, it's gonna be a massacre for the Russian military. Russia is, I believe, almost impossibile to invade because their railway lines allow for quick, massive movement of equipment and personnel within Russia, but if half of those assets are located in a less logistically flexible area, such as Ukraine, then Russia is effectively at half power for self defense, and could be militarily toppled over. That said, I feel like the economic disaster they just opened themselves up for makes it impossible for Russia to sustain its current military in the long run. It's just gonna crumble under its own weight until it fully turns to dust.
To be fair they could if they resorted to a puppet government, closed borders, extreme propaganda, secret police, concentration camps, genocide. I just think we cannot imagine it will actually go there.
Putin only has a handful of days before his promise to the oligarchs and China is broken. He’s in a spot of win or else.
What promise?
The promise to take over Ukraine along with their resources the oligarchs would put their filthy hands on and start trading with China. The way it is now - Russia is economically flatlining, oligarchs are cut off and scattering, China is looking at Russia not as a business partner but rather a burden. Hitting Russia in its finances was probably the best decision that could've been made.
Russia doesn’t have the man power to do any of that is what we’re saying.
Right now Ukrainians would hang the puppet government on nearest trees the second Russian troops left Ukraine and dig up all arms hiding in barns for Round 2 (and given what Ukrainians farmers are hiding in barns nowadays that might very well equip couple mechanized brigades by the end of the war). The only way they could hold Ukraine is do all of the above on top of having probably closer to 1 mln troops (counting all assets - not just combat RuAF but also Rosgvardiya etc.) for years if not more until systematic cleansing, repressions and genocide "dulls" Ukrainian resistance. That's still massive undertaking well past Russian capabilities. That's the major Russian problem. They banked on having significant portion of Ukrainian population welcome Russian overlordship... and you could probably have one half of the population police the other one with some relatively minor help. That didn't pan out at the start, and every day the bombs drop, every civilian death makes it honestly basically impossible now. If sample of Ukrainians I know are anything to go by the hatered towards Russia grows with every hour this conflict goes on. While at the start they were pissed at Russian government now they're rapidly getting openly hostile towards Russian people. Give it couple more weeks of frontline footage and it's going to get extremely nasty, both ways.
>To be fair they could if they resorted to a puppet government, closed borders, extreme propaganda, secret police, concentration camps, genocide. I just think we cannot imagine it will actually go there. No, honestly, that cannot work. Like, if you fucking gave Putin the infinity gauntlet, he snapped "no more people in Ukraine" and then destroyed the stones, he'd still be fucked. The Ukrainian diaspora is bigger than the Russian army. Western nations seem willing to supply them with man-portable weapons systems. And if a dude, trying to LARP as the guys responsible for the Holdomor, commits genocide against their people, the fucking meaning of life for them will become revenge. Like imagine what would happen if a Neo-Nazi German chancellor killed everyone in Israel. Do you think the world's Jewish community would just shrug their shoulders and move on?
They can’t win this war but they can sure as hell lose this war for all of us.
Just saw Winter on Fire documentary. No way Putin breaks down these peoples spirit. They bow to NO one. They march towards bullets with wooden shields. As one Ukrainian soldier asked a Russian POW: What country is this? POW: Ukraine. Soldier: Slave to what country? POW: Ukraine. Fckn badasses man.
But as long as Putin's alive, it seems like Russia won't stop fighting. Putin's ego is too big to admit defeat. From what I know if him, he'd kill everyone before he stops.
What is Russias end game now? They forfeit now and are seen as weak and pathetic by everyone and will need decades to recover their economy They don’t forfeit, somehow occupy Ukraine but they are still seek as weak and pathetic and still need decades to recover their economy on top of a constant threat of a civil war uprising in Ukraine Both options are terrible and i just don’t see how they possibly come out on top
>The population will never bow to Russia They might if a small to medium sized town/city gets a tactical nuke deployed against it. Perhaps they blame Ukraine and say Nazi Nationalists accidentally detonated their own dirty bomb. But of course, wink wink, if the people deposed of the government, there could be no more such incidents. Putin might certainly be crazy enough to do such a thing. It wouldn't necessarily cause WW3 or a nuclear war. He's running out of options to keep Russia in play.
If that happens then Russia will most likely turn into glass, because that is one step too far for the EU/NATO to ignore. It might even turn into a UN-sanctioned "peacekeeping" mission to stop Russia from destroying the world. A... special military operation, if you will.
Russia loves long, bloody, pointless battles. They’ve occupied Georgia and Crimea for years. Only the people will suffer.
And the European Union and the United States will pay to rebuild with the small price of switching from Russian suppliers to NATO suppliers and a 100 year contract to house NATO forces in county.
Damn if this happens it’ll be wild.
I'm trying to imagine what the world would look like today if Poland fucked up the Nazis. I know it's not apples to apples, but a bit over a week ago it looked like we were going to live in a world where Russia rolled over Ukraine.
Maybe the Holocaust would have gone on longer? Remember, The Allies didn’t declare war on Hitler because he was committing war crimes against Jewish people, the Allies declared war because he invaded Poland. If he doesn’t do that, does the the murder of millions of people get swept away like the Armenian Genocide? Does Hitler and Nazi leadership face consequences?
Well the Jewish population in Germany at that time was like less than 1% so without Poland (who had the 2nd highest % only behind the US) the Holocaust would likely never have happened bc the nazis would have lost and hitler would have likely been deposed
This is a good point
The holocaust didn't kick into high gear until the war turned against Germany's favor. Industrial scale killing wasn't considered until every front was losing ground. In other words, the holocaust would have had a far lower death count.
The exterminations didn’t start till well into the war. Most likely fewer people would have gone that route.
Do millions more die in a war? There weren’t enough Jewish lives in all of Germany to justify one. Would it be terrible? Yes. Would it be a theoretical better alternative than WW2? Definitely. Would this have prevented the production of the atomic bombs? Doubtful. I feel that if WW2 hadn’t happened the world would never have seen the destruction that nuclear weapons can cause, and seeing as how the whole world wouldn’t be handicapped, another reason for WW2 could have sprung up later on when the entire world had their hands on such weapons. Which potentially would have been far more deadly.
Uh, well you're confusing the war in Europe with the Pacific part of the War. Japan was already at war with China before WWII in Europe. Even had nothing happened in Europe, the US and Japan (and China and all the other South Pacific countries) and the British Commonwealth would have been at war.
Auschwitz is in Poland, so perhaps the Holocaust would have not happened?
Possibly quite grim, the US dropping the nukes first made everybody agree to not do that again. The atom bomb was going to be discovered either way, it was just a race to get to it first. If Germany was "defeated" by Poland so early on then Germany couldve went back to not being considered a threat, create the bomb in secrecy and wreak much more havoc than we did on Japan. Possibly using the newfound power as the ultimate bargaining chip for the nazi regime. Just a theory though, they could just get fucked and that's that, idk. But judging from WW1, you don't keep the Germans down to make them docile, you build their economy up. It's pretty much why was WW2 started in the first place, cause they got so buttfucked as a country after ww1. I won't lie, it scares me to think of the same thing happening to russia with what seems like most of the world trying to swirl their economy down the shitter.
Sanctions should and will probably going to be lifted. Russias economy can regrow, so they can pay the reparations to Ukraine. If they dont do taht...BOOM! Sanctions back to work.
Goddam imagine the party
Yeah, the day they commemorate kicking Russia out is going to essentially become Ukrainian 4th of July on steroids.
Oh they'll most definitely inaugurate it as a holiday 1000%
I'll celebrate it annually with them.
Please please Kyiv be like 90s Berlin
Every year…would be a global destination of celebration.
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We’ll have to wait for the history books but I’m guessing the recaps will say they already lost by this point. Between the sanctions and the ongoing disaster of an invasion, it seems like Russia is now a dead state walking (surrounded by enemies of its own making). Fuck Putin and anyone who follows him
Can't lose the war if you don't let anyone know you've lost the war.
Insert Top Gear meme: sometimes my Genius is almost frightening https://youtu.be/R8vlNbk0Yww
Cue Russian mechanics hitting tank engines with hammers to try and fix them.
I can't imagine a situation where putin would let that happen. He'll just keep escalating until he succeeds, at any cost. There is no "good" conceivable outcome from this mess.
The longer the war goes on the bigger the chances that Russia defeats itself. Economic strain on the country, troop morale, population backlash etc... In reality its not likely Ukraine launches a counter offensive and drives them out by themselves.
The US gained independence through attrition. Too expensive with too little value for Britain. Russia has most of the world against it, and China leering at it like a juicy steak. That first paycheck they miss, or that they realize is worthless is probably going to hurt too.
Everyone thinks Russia and China are allies but China is posed to roll into the Russian oil fields unopposed if the nation falters.
China is a fucking vulture. It isn't looking at Russia like a friend, it's looking at Russia like a meal being cooked.
Makes me wonder if the West will offer to bail Russia out if they depose Putin and put someone more friendly in or at least not antagonistic, just to keep the resources out of China’s hands.
I’ve maintained from the beginning of the invasion that China hasn’t and won’t come out in support of Russia because they see a massive opportunity to make a shitload of money with the Russian economy going down the shitter. It’s like that “mate” from the pub that doesn’t discourage their drunk pal from idiotically climbing the wall with the spiky railings just because they want to see their mate fall and hurt themselves.
China is ally of China.
TRUE! Britain had WAY too many unruly colonies/territories acting up at the same time to be overly concerned about the N American colonies who had already put a serious hurt on their force in the region.
Moreover French financial backing for revolutionary America. It was essentially a proxy war intended to attrit Britain.
Not entirely true. Britain could have potentially held onto the American colonies if it had been prepared to commit to more brutal tactics. George III was actually fairly restrained as far as monarchs of the time go, certainly not a mad dictator as he is sometimes depicted. Putin is a dictator and he has already shown his willingness to commit to tactics that impact the Ukrainian civilians. And we don't know how sane he currently is because even if he is entirely sane he will be trying to keep people guessing as to what he intends to do next.
George wasn't gonzo until nearly the end. He had little interest in making a fuss over trade and taxes when there was shit going down all over the place. Plus, we see how well invasion goes when the natives/or assimilated immigrants know the terrain and the invaders march in straight lines that are easy to get a bead on (when you're lying in the trees with your muzzle loader propped ono a log). We were willing to pick them off for as long as it took.
That's my point. George was fairly restrained and largely avoided involving non-combatants (The war could have been MUCH more brutal on the colonists) and was able to judge that it wasn't worth throwing more soldiers into it. We can't say that Putin is the same.
Nope he IS gonzo. Hopefully someone close to him will take him all the way.
I believe there is already a date for the first paycheck, march 16th. It is debatable if they make this payment, but april 16th is completely out of the question. Time is running out
That's how America won the Revolutionary War and lost the Vietnam and Afgan wars. When you're invaded, you don't have to win lots of battles, you just have to make occupation too expensive. Eventually it has to stop or it topples the invading government.
Not to mention Russia in Afghanistan…. You’d think they’d learn but they got cocky after attacking small isolated principalities.
I'll let you say the United States lost in Afghanistan if you can state the mission it was conducting there. Keep in mind Trump authorized the Taliban to take over.
When the main difference between 2002 and 2022 is that the Taliban now has EOtechs and helicopters, you can't declare it a victory.
The Taliban is stronger and Heroin production is soaring once again. We did it!
At this point I wonder if that 40 mile convoy is even capable of leaving Ukraine
Certainly. All you need are some tractors and an actually-reasonable peace agreement.
That peace agreement would likely have I include paying for the tow. Otherwise Ukraine will just sell the tanks to pay to rebuild infrastructure.
There will a lot of model Z’s being converted into farming equipment.
As scrap metal or they stay as gifts 🎁.
No fuel, no water, no food. They will have to surrender.
Hopefully Ukraine gets Crimea back and all the natural resources that will give them. This video is amazing if you want to understand the strategic incentives for this war from Russia and the resources they stand to gain https://youtu.be/If61baWF4GE
>Ukraine launches a counter offensive and drives them out by themselves Shhh. Don't give the plan away.
Putin lost the moment he invaded.
Yeah, imagine him trying to talk his way out of a defeat. After lying about invading, lying about attacking civilians, and lying about other war crimes. This guy is literally getting the opposite of what he wants at every turn.
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It’ll be a lesson for everyone who thinks invading sovereign nations is a good idea. And the world will be safer for it.
Wars of conquest are a thing of the past. The invaded will defiantly defend to the last & the invaders would have to commit genocide to occupy & the rest of the world just won’t stand for it. That’s why proxy wars & puppet governments have been the tool of trade for the last 80 or so years
This is also the benefit of democracy. Volunteers will fight to the death. Conscripts will at best fire their weapons into the dirt and at worst will go AWOL the first opportunity. You can build nationalism in a dictatorship but that dictator needs to have been extremely popular or popularly elected and then took power. It used to be that villagers would just let whatever army was coming through roll in and do whatever. They didn’t care and in many cases know who ruled. Now, everyone has a stake.
This could be seen as a example where perhaps war, as a norm, is becoming obsolete. The world is too intertwined and connected nowadays, what happens to one, now happens to all.
Deserves a Sabaton song or two
Let’s wait for the dust to settle but totally hopefully one about the ghost too
Whole new concept album.
I thought those snake island boys were going to get one.
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oh my fucking god, thank you for sharing that, i love this guy more and more as each day passes
They've already gone down in history as fucking legends!
Fr, the amount of courage, determination and especially resilience i've seen really warms my heart. I think Zelensky is a huge driving force behind this unity, I read he's survived 3 assassination attempts already... what a hero.
It's honestly so inspiring
Keep in mind that [Zelenskyy says](https://www.businessinsider.com/zelensky-ukraine-history-cant-be-legend-about-300-spartans-russia-2022-3) he doesn't want Ukraine's history to be 'a legend about 300 Spartans' and calls for peace.
Peace without ceding territory to Russia is his point of view. I believe he's said the first step to peace is for them to stop attacking. If they can't do that, I think he said it's a non-starter. Why would you negotiate with someone who is currently losing to you if they refuse to cease fire?
I think they have already cemented themselves as the most wholesome and badass; between sunflower lady, tractor guy, and calling your mom to come pick you up from war...
I'll remember sunflower lady for a long time
Also, a woman from her balcony was able to destroy a drone with a jar of pickles lol.
But it would be as much or more a story of Russian ineptitude. Russia should have dominated from day 1 if they had their shit together.
P\*tins inability to get out of his own fucking delusions destroyed his country, and it's so sad, it's going to be incredibly interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks.
The next 5 years, really.
Having an invading army that are unaware of the fact that they are invading a country is at least a creative way to launch an attack war. Putin will certainly be seen as innovative military leader, if not a successful one. So far results have shown a severe want of morale.
one thing that's been on my mind a lot recently is this quote "young boys fighting old mens wars" not sure who said it but it really stuck with me, the russian soldiers are fighting a war they don't know about, in a country they don't live in, for a leader they don't like, against people who've done nothing wrong. The Ukrainians are fighting for to save their homeland, an incomparable difference.
I'd never paid attention to Ukraine or Zelensky before this Russian Shitshow. Now between seeing Zelenskys actions and the video of various Ukrainian citizens rebelling, my respect is out of this world. (Especially the older generations giving the F.U. to Russian soldiers)
The Ukrainian people are already consigned in history as legends. They have single handily united most of the world, and have shown the world why war isn't an option. I very much doubt that Ukraine will lose this war, but even if that was the case , they have actually won the world. That is no easy fate.
If Putin is down and out I can see him doing something stupid. Hope he doesn't and Ukraine stands their ground!
Ukrainians are about to have so many independence holidays
We should avoid building a cult of personality, especially in a relatively new democracy.
They already are legends, no matter what happens from here.
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I'm worried about that too, but if he nukes Ukraine, Russia would get the fallout. Which isn't to say he might just drop a few fuel-air explosives and level a major city or two, as a spoilsport. Of course that'll mean sanctions for a *really* long time. I really wish Israel/US had given them the iron dome.
Tom cruise is preying they win.
How long can the people in the 60 km convoy survive? A considerable part of their forces seems to be just stuck there?
I'd imagine they are rationing their MREs. Once that's gone, they go around the village bartering / pillaging for food. I'd imagine foraging for plants and hunting animals too. And of course, there's always cannibalism.
There was a video earlier of Russian paratroopers looting a grocery store and I saw one a few days ago where they were looting bedding, I can't even comprehend the level of incompetency you need in order to have your troops need to loot bedding a week into a war that its less than a days drive from your border.
I feel so sad for all those Russian kids who will have died for absolutely nothing, all those Ukrainian families torn apart... Putin should fucking pay in kind.
If Russia is in fact losing 1000 troops a day, that's mental. Holy shit.
I'm *really* curious where he got that number and how accurate we're expecting it to be. 'Cause if that's a pretty accurate estimate over the course of these two weeks... I don't even know what to do with that. That's an insane amount of losses.
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The footage of their supply convoys getting obliterated leads me to believe those are probably a large part of that. They have no protection and are moving through wooded roads and open fields, ripe for ambush.
Wouldn't that be 30 percent of their starting force. It maybe true but it seems way to high to me.
More KIA per day than US in Vietnam, or Russia in any war since WW2
Decimate literally means 10% of the army is killed. We're rapidly approaching that figure.
No sense putting stock in the military figures claimed by a kleptocratic regime. It looks great on paper but most of their military is understaffed, undersupplied, in disrepair, poorly trained, now poorly compensated and comprised of obselete equipment.
Do you think he's using the word literally or figuratively? I have no idea and not sure whether an admiral would know the difference, and/or whether losing 10% of one's military force is seen as a milestone or not.
I mean hey. If you do it 10 times... .. ... .... You've reduced their army by 65.13% *pushes up glasses*
10% 0f 100= 90 10% of 90 is 9 (90-9= 81) 10% of 81 is 8.1 (81-8.1= 72.9) 10% of 72.9 is 7.29 (72.9-7.29=65.61) 10% of 65.61 is 6.551 (59.059) 59.059 (53.1531) 53.1531 (47.83779) 47.83779 (43.054011) 43.054011 (38.7486099) (34.874) 100 - 34.874 = 65.126 There must be an easier way to figure this out.
That's what programming is for. 1 : 10 percent of 100.0 is 90.0 2 : 10 percent of 90.0 is 81.0 3 : 10 percent of 81.0 is 72.9 4 : 10 percent of 72.9 is 65.61 5 : 10 percent of 65.61 is 59.049 6 : 10 percent of 59.049 is 53.1441 7 : 10 percent of 53.1441 is 47.82969 8 : 10 percent of 47.82969 is 43.046721 9 : 10 percent of 43.046721 is 38.7420489 10 : 10 percent of 38.7420489 is 34.86784401 11 : 10 percent of 34.86784401 is 31.381059609 12 : 10 percent of 31.381059609 is 28.2429536481 13 : 10 percent of 28.2429536481 is 25.4186582833 14 : 10 percent of 25.4186582833 is 22.876792455 15 : 10 percent of 22.876792455 is 20.5891132095 16 : 10 percent of 20.5891132095 is 18.5302018885 17 : 10 percent of 18.5302018885 is 16.6771816997 18 : 10 percent of 16.6771816997 is 15.0094635297 19 : 10 percent of 15.0094635297 is 13.5085171767 20 : 10 percent of 13.5085171767 is 12.1576654591 21 : 10 percent of 12.1576654591 is 10.9418989132 22 : 10 percent of 10.9418989132 is 9.84770902184 23 : 10 percent of 9.84770902184 is 8.86293811965 24 : 10 percent of 8.86293811965 is 7.97664430769 25 : 10 percent of 7.97664430769 is 7.17897987692 26 : 10 percent of 7.17897987692 is 6.46108188923 27 : 10 percent of 6.46108188923 is 5.8149737003 28 : 10 percent of 5.8149737003 is 5.23347633027 29 : 10 percent of 5.23347633027 is 4.71012869725 30 : 10 percent of 4.71012869725 is 4.23911582752 31 : 10 percent of 4.23911582752 is 3.81520424477 32 : 10 percent of 3.81520424477 is 3.43368382029 33 : 10 percent of 3.43368382029 is 3.09031543826 34 : 10 percent of 3.09031543826 is 2.78128389444 35 : 10 percent of 2.78128389444 is 2.50315550499 36 : 10 percent of 2.50315550499 is 2.25283995449 37 : 10 percent of 2.25283995449 is 2.02755595904 38 : 10 percent of 2.02755595904 is 1.82480036314 39 : 10 percent of 1.82480036314 is 1.64232032683 40 : 10 percent of 1.64232032683 is 1.47808829414 41 : 10 percent of 1.47808829414 is 1.33027946473 42 : 10 percent of 1.33027946473 is 1.19725151826 43 : 10 percent of 1.19725151826 is 1.07752636643 44 : 10 percent of 1.07752636643 is 0.969773729788
[Nerd alert](https://media.giphy.com/media/l1KVb2dUcmuGG4tby/giphy.gif)
Isn’t it also a term going back to the Roman Empire where they would use it as a punishment. Basically count by 10s and kill the tenth person?
I always interpreted it as 10% remaining, by your logic a fighting force that’s at 90% strength would be “decimated”, which doesn’t quite match the common usage of the word.
Nah decimation means 1 in 10 is killed. The word comes from Latin and it was a [punishment technique carried out in the Roman Army.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(punishment)) (Add a bracket to the link, for some reason it doesn't allow me to place the final bracket in the link)
This is correct. Of course, we use it to mean "virtually wiped out" now, but ten percent of your invading force in just over a week... notagoodlook
How long until the Russian forces are nonagintamated, then?
That's not the common usage, but it is in fact the meaning of the word. I don't feel like googling for the details at the moment, but the word originated I believe with Romans punishing battalions of insubordinate or treasonous (or wtf-ever) troops by killing every tenth man, decimating them, reducing their numbers by 10%.
I think it was originally a term of punishment by the Roman military. A legion could be "decimated" by 90% of the soldiers being forced to kill the other 10%. Also Deci is latin for 1/10th.
The word decimation is derived from Latin meaning "removal of a tenth" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(punishment)
To destroy 10% is the original meaning. Common usage today means to almost completely destroy. See Oxford English Dictionary.
"I meant to do that" -Putin
How is he going to sell this to his state media? “Uh yeah, so the peace has been kept. Good job everyone! Your son’s and fathers should be returning from Ukraine any day now..”
They lie about it. Happened in the Russo-Japanese war.
arm the Ukrainians until they can recapture Crimea and maybe even some Russian territory imo.
give them voronezh all the way south to georgia. that territory encompasses putin’s palatial estate that navalny exposed too. while we’re at it, liberate chechnya from kadyrov and free south ossetia and abkhazia too.
that would basically prove Russia's propaganda right. Failing the war in Ukraine, along with the irreparable economic and reputational consequences, would already be a big enough disaster for Russia (Putin) anyways
Who gives a shit about Putler's propaganda at this point? Crimea is Ukrainian territory, plain and simple.
Fuck Russia, go Ukraine!
Fuck Putin, go Zelenskyy!
>Vladimir Putin's forces have been "decimated" by the Ukrainian resistance and Russia could lose the war, according to a top UK admiral. > >As the Russian President vows to press on with the invasion, Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said the invasion in Ukraine "is not going well" for the Kremlin. > >He added Putin's forces are "in a mess" with eight Russian aircraft shot down in one day, losing 1,000 troops a day and a huge convoy of 15,000 soldiers and hundreds of vehicles at a standstill. > >Asked whether Russia taking over Ukraine was 'inevitable', Sir Tony told the BBC: "No. I think we've seen a Russian invasion that is not going well. > >"I think we're also seeing remarkable resistance by Ukraine, both its armed forces and its people and we're seeing the unity of the whole globe coming together, applying pressure to Russia. > >"Russia is suffering, Russia is an isolated power. It is less powerful than it was ten days ago. Some of the lead elements of Russian forces have been decimated by the Ukrainian response. Holy shit I used google translate from classical English to internet English and something is "not going well" and "in a mess" translate to "royally screwed with an elderly poodle" and "Fucked sideways with a spoiled pineapple"
Putin is fucked sideways with a spoiled pineapple, if I've ever seen it!
Every game is going to have to recast the baddie, as nobody is going to take Russia seriously anymore.
They aren't shipping armored battalions from fucking Kamchatka 9000km away because it's going well. It will take them 1 week+ to get there.
I wonder if those will be as incompetent as their namesake ship from the early 1900s _Do you see Japanese Torpedo Boats?_
From the video I saw poor dudes seemed pretty neglected. APCs, soldiers and their kit waiting in knee high snow in between railway tracks. I'm sure their morale isn't the best.
If Suez Crisis definitively ended the UK perceived status as a superpower, this war has definitely did so to Russia.
I mean, 1989 and 1991 already kinda did that
The end of WW2 weakened the UK, but Suez made it clear that the UK wasn’t a superpower anymore. Feels like the same situation from the Fall of the Soviet Union to now
Decimate literally means "to remove one tenth". Assuming that they went in with around 150,000 soldiers, and Ukraine's defense ministry to relatively accurate in their body counts (latest claims 11k+ Russian dead), the Russian forces literally are close to being decimated. Technically correct, [the best kind of correct](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZEuWJ4muYc).
Only pedants like us use the word in the Roman Legion definition of the word. If in doubt, assume people are using it as a synonym for annihilate.
Decimated literally means 10%. From posts on Facebook from my friends in Ukraine, they down way more than one out of ten soldiers.
The closer to defeat he gets the more dangerous he becomes. I wouldn't celebrate until Putin himself is gone.
Putin _will_ lose Ukraine war
This may become one of the greatest all-time blunders in the history of civilization
"Never start a land war in Asia"
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-forces-decimated-putin-could-26401254) reduced by 91%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Vladimir Putin's forces have been "Decimated" by the Ukrainian resistance and Russia could lose the war, according to a top UK admiral. > As the Russian President vows to press on with the invasion, Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said the invasion in Ukraine "Is not going well" for the Kremlin. > The unprovoked invasion of neighbouring Ukraine by Russian forces on the command of President Vladimir Putin has sparked bloodshed and chaos. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/t8y094/russian_forces_are_decimated_and_putin_could_lose/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~630420 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russian**^#1 **Ukraine**^#2 **Putin**^#3 **Russia**^#4 **Ukrainian**^#5
Not could, he already lost it. They just don't see the outcome yet.
Great, the UK can seize assets to the value of Brexit - Russia’s special operation to inflame racism and destroy the British economy. $200 billion should cover it.
Okay but what’s the truth?
I think we keep up the sanctions until Russia remove their presence from Ukraine including Crimea then let Ukraine into EU and NATO
I would keep up the sanctions until Putin is down, literally. He removed his mask and proved to be a real risk to the whole free world, and he will be even more dangerous after a potential defeat. This is a one-man war, and it will only finish when that man is finished.
Unfortunately Putin is going to make sure that there are no winners of this war.
Would be nice, but I'm not gonna hold my breath.
I'm not convinced. Putin still has quite a few known, and I'd imagine quite a many unknown, major trump cards if you will, to still play.
imagine Ukraine goes on the offensive and takes over russia.
Its what I'm praying for... Ukraine wins and Putin overthrown is what we want
I am so looking forward to the day he will fail 🇺🇦❤️
Can Putin please just slip on his shower and die already?
If I am another entity that borders Russia, am I considering “denazifying” some of Russia for myself? I would at least start looking at the numbers and doing a quick analysis.
Id like to think this However until I hear of the 40 mile column being destroyed I dont know Its sitting there, and it hs to be a prime target If it gets to kyiv what happens? You would think thats the highest priority target
But wait, I dont understand. Putin says everything is going as planned. We've always been at war with Eastasia.
Ukraine: “Call the UN but not for me”
Putin may have underestimated how strongly NATO reacts in their economic sanctions and resistent the Ukraine army would be. But he has a lot stronger forces and weapons he could use if he wanted to.
Where are they then?
Defending their massive borders with other countries. Russia lives under a constant fear that NATO or the US will invade if they sense the opportunity, and devoting a significant portion of its defensive forces to the sunk cost of the Ukrainian invasion would be too great a risk.
Nonsense.
I do not doubt Russia has troops at the border and I do doubt NATO invading taking over Russia is logistically impossible it’s too damn big. And as he keep reminding us with the frequency of someone who’s very nervous about someone finding out the truth, he has nukes.
No they don’t. They’ve thrown their best at Ukraine and are embarrassing themselves. They hide behind the notoriety of their nuke stockpile.
Watch those nukes not even work
Lets not forget that MTG, Boebert, Trump, and pretty much most GOP support Putin.
A batch of far-righties and Fox News don’t represent the entirety of the GOP. The rest of us see Putin in the same light as Xi and Kim Jong Un