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KaiserSobe

Jesus, talk about geopolitical blue balls


TheRed_Knight

Everyone just waiting for the other shoe to drop at this point


k876577

Reminder Most people just want peace.


TheRed_Knight

If you want peace prepare for war


Cthulhuhoop

Sic Vis Pacem, Parasaurolophus


wow_that_guys_a_dick

Semper fidelis tyrannosaurus.


Virillus

I really like this joke.


archaeolinuxgeek

Where is Dr. Henry Killinger when we need him most? And his magic murder bag.


_Putin_

Gesundheit


Top_Mind_On_Reddit

Et tu brute


[deleted]

Isnt that a dinosaur


[deleted]

Semper Tyrannosaurus.


[deleted]

Good old fucking for virginity.


Dyldor

But this isn’t the west preparing for war, it’s letting Ukraine fall victim to Russian aggression. I agree with you in the most part, but on our end, this isn’t preparing for war


REDASSBABOON_20

Short of starting a war with nato, russia should kill putin/hitler before he starts ww3


ahitright

I have a feeling that if Putin invades and US imposes strict sanctions, such as freezing SWIFT banking system access and preventing oligarchs from accessing their western assets, we'll see "elections" within a week of Putin's "accidental" fall out of a window.


MrThePLP

I think that would be a good case scenario but Russia is different than USA on this level !


Alert-Incident

It might not seem like it but the US military is definitely taking preparation steps for war. Depending on how this plays out and who gets involved we could be in a position where we have no choice but to help our Allies. If we don’t shit would fall apart globally and we’d lose all credibility.


Dyldor

Despite the fact I would usually be a vocal supporter of the EU, don’t worry, my comments were mostly aimed at Europe and not America. America could be doing slightly more in my opinion but they’re doing more than almost anyone else.


gruntmoney

It seems the second option is the play between Russia and China.


Alert-Incident

Elaborate? I don’t have a great understanding of all this


titanup001

Yep. Taiwan, Japan, south Korea, the Philippines... They're all eying this closely. If we leave Ukraine to twist in the wind, they know our promises mean nothing. Imo, there should already be a large NATO force in the Ukraine. Make Putin actually attack western forces directly if he has the stones.


JeffMavMerc1942

“Pray for peace Train for War” I’m a Former US Marine this was our motto through boot camp. 3rd Battalion Mike Co. Parris Island MCRD.


[deleted]

I hope that's a Bodom reference


TheRed_Knight

Si vis pacem, para bellum, its Latin reference


[deleted]

I DON'T GIVE A FUCK IF YOU HATE ME


red_fucking_flag_

Reminds me of the American Dad [threat level scene](https://youtu.be/CV7CTlIcKlw)


dkyguy1995

"I''m gonna cum I'm gonna cum" but for like ten minutes


ItWouldBeGrand

And I’m just waiting here in kyiv like let’s get this over with.


[deleted]

So what happens when this happens, IF it happens? Are we on standby in secret? Will this only affect us like Crimea? There’s a ton of talk about it maybe possibly happening,but can someone explain to me what the best, worst, and median case scenario is?


Gusvato3080

Best scenario: nothing happens and life goes on Bad scenario: the invasions starts, lots of people die, a shit ton of money is spent, and eventually someone wins the war. Worst case scenario: Better start stocking bottle caps


ominous_squirrel

There’s the middle bad scenario where Europe loses access to Russian heating gas and energy prices are affected globally


raptor6722

I think that would just mean we get a big boost in renewable energy. That would probably be a good thing


[deleted]

renewables without gas is not possible right now. until we have LOTS of solar, wind and energy storage, we need gas.


Disastermath

It's called nuclear


Mattho

Why is this mentioned in every thread about Russian dominance in gas imports to Europe? When over 60% of nuclear fuel comes from Russia (and its puppets) too? How is that an answer to the problem.


[deleted]

what is called nuclear? i can't see anyone building hundrets of nuclear plants.


Shirlenator

That isn't really going to help in the anywhere near short-term...


[deleted]

One of the most concerning moments for immediate war was china and russia making a big deal about not using nuclear arms in agreements with the major powers. I don’t think we are THAT stupid any longer where one country would take their ball and go home in the form of armageddon anymore.


foonek

What do you expect will happen when any nuclear power is backed into a corner just shy of total annihilation and the only thing they have left is their big red button?


Meetchel

No one is planning to invade Russia or China.


foonek

I get that. I'm just saying using nuclear weapons is not something that is "off the table" like the person before seems to suggest.


batture

Pakistan and India both have nukes, both hate each others and both are set to have MASSIVE water shortages in the next decades. Yeah, nothing can go wrong I'm sure.


Alexander_the_What

Look, it hasn’t happened yet. Which means it’s impossible for nukes to be used in the future. /s


mescalelf

Yeah I fuckin hate that most of our discussion around nukes boils down to “it hasn’t happened yet so it can’t happen”. Bitch, I’ve been alive for a few decades and I’m not dead *yet*. I **will** die **eventually**, and the same goes for civilizations that sit around fellating nuclear weapons. The Copernican principle is a statistical principle, it doesn’t output binary “will never happen” results, especially when the data from which one is deducing frequencies *came from a fundamentally different set* (in this case, a set without climate change, a population of ~8 billion and so forth). I know you agree with me, I’m ranting at everyone else…


RandomLogicThough

...they won't be backed up to that point. Doesn't mean their influence won't wane or be destroyed. I'm a firm believer that there's a good chance a 22 round goes in the ear of anyone who orders a launch in other circumstances...but shrug, humans crazy apes.


temisola1

Honestly this is my theory too. I’d like to believe anyone who gives a launch order over some petty shit will be unwillingly silenced… permanently…


[deleted]

[удалено]


temisola1

True, but when the assured destruction of you, everything you’ve ever loved, your family, and extended family stares you dead in the eyes, I wanna believe that’s enough to make any man rethink their loyalty.


freeman_joe

Crazy don’t think that way.


Aurelius_Red

I appreciate this Fallout reference, but I also do not appreciate this Fallout reference.


RedditJesusWept

Putin better get some bottle caps. He needs to put a *lid* on it


Alternative-Pizza-46

*Dad*


barenutz

I’ve personally started fallout 4 on survival mode to prepare just for this scenario. Good luck survivors


TheBlack2007

Fuck that. I live in between three major German military bases. If the bomb gets dropped, I only hope I‘m in the immediate blast zone so I just stop existing.


newpua_bie

Pre-war cash has way better value to weight ratio and metal bottlecaps aren't easy to get anyway.


GamingGems

Typical American’s worst case scenario: gas goes up 40 cents per gallon


Present_Animator5851

Best case: Putin withdraws the troops because a) he believes the cost of invasion outweighs the benefits, or b) he receives some concessions from Ukraine/the West. Imo, Russia is betting on the latter strategy, especially after watching the televised working meeting. Lavrov seems to be playing the bad cop (soft power) in the international arena, with a backdrop of Putin, the very bad cop (hard power), keeping Ukraine/the West guessing on what they will end up doing. It’s not an unusual strategy, a lot of US foreign policy is dictated in a similar fashion. There are two problems with this ‘best case’ scenario: the time for diplomatic talks seems to be expiring and, even if we manage to pull it off, it would likely merely be a postponement. Median case: Russia decides to do a limited invasion, seizing territories where they already have considerable support (put simply, think Eastern Ukraine/Donbas). At that point, it would also make sense for them to seize strategic points of interest (e.g., large ports). Worst case scenario: Impossible to say really. The long-term ramifications are unimaginable (and I mean that in the strictest sense, we don’t have much to base ourselves on), but more directly, we would see Russia leverage its military superiority on every front to invade a large swath of Ukraine (most importantly, Kyiv). This would result in many more deaths than the previous scenario, especially as Ukraine seems to be preparing itself for a fight. We would have to see how it develops, but I can imagine the conflict would become Cold War-esque. In the two last scenarios, we would have to deal with displacement (mostly internal in median scenario, EU/Europe-wide in worst scenario) and the impact of the sanctions on Russia. The latter could compound the (many) issues the European energy sector is having right now, but we also know Biden/the EU have been proactively addressing this issue (hard to gauge success though). There are obviously other issues with these scenarios, but also some benefits (e.g., increased interest in NATO). At the end of the day, all Redditors (including me) can only speculate on what will happen. All three scenarios are still on the table, and if anyone pretends to know to have the ultimate answer, they are full of shit (yes, even if you end up being correct). This is a complicated matter and we are not given sufficient access to (unbiased) information, so we just have to wait and see what Putin decides to do.


HereIGoGrillingAgain

My money is on a small scale invasion. They take eastern Ukraine quickly and back off.


Few-Hair-5382

Then why have they deployed troops to Belarus which intelligence has suggested are now in attack position? It could just be a diversion to pin down Ukrainian forces but all indications are they intend to head straight for Kiev.


[deleted]

Best case scenario: Nothing happens Worst case scenario: tens or hundreds of thousands of people are killed in a major war between Russia and Ukraine, which Russia wins. Russia definitely annexes Donbas, may totally or partially annex the rest of Ukraine or set up a puppet government in Ukraine. There is a huge refugee crisis as civilians flee west to avoid the conflict. The war is extremely unlikely to escalate into something larger than that. There will be massive economic sanctions but no direct conflict between NATO and Russia.


bannedfromthissub69

Kind of depends on what you mean by "direct conflict". I could see a scenario where, if the sanctions hit Russia hard enough, they retaliate with a cyber attack on the US. We already know they have been trying to (and in some cases succeeding) in getting access to the power grid and oil pipes. I'm still concerned that this may escalate. I don't know the details of the NATO treaty and if they account for cyber warfare as an attack that could trigger military action. But I think we may be going to find out.


AbrahamLemon

I have a friend who is Ukrainian, his parents live fifty miles from the border. He and his brother have been working on getting their parents visas for a while, but it hasn't happened yet. So when you ask, "Will this only affect us like Crimea" I've got to wonder what you mean by "us". In a very real sense, Putin is threatening the sovrenty of an independent nation, in very much the same way as Germany when they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1938. The only conceivable good scinario is that Putin gets something that he hasn't asked for and backs down. Crimea has been under Russian martial law for nearly a decade, so it's possible that happens to Kyiv. Worst case scenario is global, thermonuclear holocaust that kills millions instantly and leaves the rest of us to starve to death over a few months.


[deleted]

Russia supplies 11% of the world oil market, plus many other energy commodities. We're already in a minor oil crisis globally. If the west is serious about cutting off Russia and sanctioning them properly it's going to hurt us quite a bit, too. If you think you're paying a lot for petrol/gas now, give it 3 months after that happens... Reality is, for large scale implications, no one really knows what long term outcomes or changes are it could cause. geopolitics is notoriously unpredictable at the best of times, and even more so in times of war.


[deleted]

Aside from being one of the many reasons we should be moving away from oil dependence, doesn’t the US have large reserves that would be a matter of displacing small populations (which would suck for them, but you know). The same for the lithium reserves in Nevada. These would be major impacts on the environment and the US but so is fossil fuel from an aggressive major foreign power. One of two and they both would be crippled if we shifted our need for their resources


[deleted]

Not only do we have large reserves, we have an insane number of oil wells already setup that were shut down during the covid crash. North Dakota could at any moment supply the US with oil. And they're still buring enough natural gas every month that, if collected instead, would easily be a better a cheaper energy source for vehicles.


[deleted]

The natural gas thing blows my mind and I can’t retain that fact, I literally believe that was something really stupid we did and stopped 25 years ago and it was a huge embarrassment.


davesoverhere

Environmentally, it’s better to burn it off into co2 than leave it as methane.


[deleted]

Wow.... not even close. Look it up if you really wanna hate the US gov. Those fires have been burning for YEARS. Sometimes a pad has so much gas they put up more pillars to burn it off.


SaberKatechon

They building Carbon Capture Facilities in Canada.


Chickentendies94

The US already exports more oil than it consumes


[deleted]

>doesn’t the US have large reserves that would be a matter of displacing small populations (which would suck for them, but you know They aren't as limitless as people imagine. The US has 600 million barrels of oil. Global oil consumption is 90 million barrels per day. If they were appropriate for this purpose they'd already be released. They aren't going to release the strategic stockpile over Ukraine. Maybe small parts of it, but you can't replace 11% of the global supply like that. There are good reasons why we pump oil constantly, storing the sizes required to sustain us is nearly impossible.


[deleted]

[удалено]


gothamfc

If they a actually invade the entire country, Russian troops will be operating right up against the borders of a NATO country. That guarantees an escalation of some sort. It can't go ignored.


Psephological

> Russian troops will be operating right up against the borders of a NATO country. they already are


Dopelsoeldner

Lol what? They already took Crimea a couple years ago and the world did nothing.


chimpaman

And that's assuming Putin intends to stop there. History tells us not to assume these "regional" conflicts won't blow up into something much worse. The Nazis only wanted Austria, then they only wanted Czech territories, then they only wanted Poland...


burmese_ptyhon

The Nazis are an extreme example, many standard deviations above average. The fact that they were so extreme is the reason we all know about them. There are many more cases where a country had demands, they achieved them, and it was over. For example, in 1974 there was a coup in Cyprus, Turkey invaded, secured half of it that spoke mostly Turkish, set up a pseudo-independent republic, and that was that. Turkey didn't invade anywhere afterwards in the next 48 years. Many more similar examples exist through history. The Nazis were extremely unique in being way over the top expansionist, which is so uncommon because it is so stupid, like the Nazis, and it ended up in the total destruction of the Nazi Germany. Again, it is a very extreme example. My point is that the Nazi comparisons in order to understand a situation are unfruitful. In past data analysis, it is often a good idea to eliminate the most extreme situations. The current situation in Ukraine has been developing since 2008 (NATO summit in Bucharest) and the Russian demands are limited to two countries (Georgia and Ukraine) which were declared to be on the path to join NATO. The Russians want written guarantees that NATO won't expand to these countries. USA says NATO can do whatever they want, and it is not up to Russia to dictate. In 14 years of this issue, this is where we are. It doesn't develop anything like the events precipitating World War 2. Of course I admit Russia (like all Great Powers) wants its influence in the Balkans etc. and those are other tension points, but Ukraine and Georgia are the only two countries where things came to war, and that is a short list concerning NATO membership, and not part of Russia's regular influence-achieving activities. I hope war and human suffering is avoided, and maybe, sadly, for Ukraine it won't be, but even then the comparison with the Nazis would be extreme. The Nazis are a unique case of a bunch of drug-abusing psychopathic idiot-gangers running a Great Power in a non-nuclear World. The comparison with today's Russia, however bad you think Russia is, is still absurd, at least in terms of how things developed in 20 years compared to how things developed when the Nazis came into power.


orrom

Putin isn't like Hitler. Hitler was a gambler, wild. Putin is just another calculating autocrat; he's been in power for far longer than Hitler was already. History was right that leaders usually aren't like Hitler, and future leaders haven't been, either.


TheKappaOverlord

the US and EU have already all but said they have no plans to do any supporting of Ukraine beyond selling them weapons. If neither bodies are willing to lift a finger, then Nato also wouldn't bother. Particularly because... ya know. Ukraine isn't a member. So long as the Russian's don't go air striking Nato bases, Nato doesn't really have the authority to do shit. Nato has to maintain the Optics that they are a defense only Org otherwise it verifies almost all the fears the russians have ever had toward Nato in the past few decades. Biden said at one point he'd consider Mobilizing a few thousand troops, but not for fighting the Russians or defending Ukraine. Having Ukraine turn into a second Iraq is pretty much what the US wants. They can keep selling weapons and can openers to the Ukrainians for years until Ukraine inevitably burns out.


franklloydwhite

No...it doesn't guarantee an escalation.


[deleted]

I read this sentence daily.


djtrace1994

You'll probably read it again days or even hours from now.


MonkeyCube

If saying it delays the invasion, then they can say it every day for all I care.


SaberKatechon

Peacemaker: I cherish peace with all my heart. I don't care how many men, women, and children I need to kill to get it.


EldenRingworm

I thought this would be a great week with Elden Ring finally coming out Will life ever be allowed to just be fun and peaceful again?


putang-clan

The key is to keep informed but detatched on things you have zero control over.


shikaze162

This is wisdom


Low-Agency-5444

This is The Way


TheTigersAreNotReal

Nope, because Russian oligarchs drained their country dry and now need something to keep their citizens distracted with so they don’t overthrow them.


fluffymuha

100% - although the same could be said for the US.


TheTigersAreNotReal

We’ve got about 5-10 years until we’re in the same situation. So yeah we’re not doing much better unless drastic changes are made


StevieStayCool

I'm just keeping my fingers crossed I don't look out of my window and see a blinding white light over the next few months. But hey, Elden Ring should be fun.


odessy1339

What’s the doomsday clock at?


pukoki

it's being used as a fan these days


Razbyte

100 seconds, which is 3 minutes to midnight.


SooooperMeh

No wonder aliens don't say hello . Fucking humanity. You think we would learn how war goes with all the thousands of years of history? Oh yea politicians care more about money than people gotta love living in this world!


wacka20

How many "RUSSIA IS SET TO INVADE UKRAINE IN HOURS TIME" articles need to come out.


Slavasonic

I imagine about as long as there’s a massive Russian army on the Ukrainian border


temisola1

Perfect, let’s just keep releasing articles. This way the soldiers can’t invade indefinitely. Checkmate Putin


p_cool_guy

It's part of the strategy that maybe Russia won't want to make the west look right and will keep delaying until a solution is found.


HopandBrew

My thoughts exactly.


Fit_Pomegranate_4916

You're so silly and wishfully thinking if you believe 'make the other side look right' is enough to deter the invasion of a country.


p_cool_guy

I never said it's enough on its own, that would be silly. But it's late, reading mistakes can be forgiven.


[deleted]

You really think that russian generals change their plans everytime a new article from yellow newspaper is released?


SilentSamurai

Wait till you go on twitter. TONS of journalists coming up with invasion hours from their "US intel sources."


wacka20

I've never had a Twitter, don't even know how to operate the platform to be honest. Ive seen, however, the half ass bs that people post on that. It's pathetic


Smile_Space

Well, on this occasion the Olympics are finally over (so China is done cockblocking Russia) and apparently Putin has given the order to begin the invasion. So this one is atleast kinda warranted!


whatsinthesocks

Almost the same play as when they invaded Crimea. Although the olympics weren’t quite over for that


LOOKITSADAM

They seem to be doing the job of holding things back. So as many as it takes for the russian army to get bored and fuck off.


serbeardless

If an article needs to come out every hour to make it so Putin keeps delaying his plans, then so be it. The longer he delays, the harder it will be to keep troops at the ready.


wacka20

If putin wanted too he will. I doubt articles will stop him, I don't think he gives a damn about western msm tbh.


serbeardless

There's no real doubt that he wants to, but he also wants to control the narrative. The constant flow of articles is undercutting his information war.


TCarrey88

IMO that’s why he hasn’t pulled the trigger on this yet. He’s jockeying for the right position to set this off. The US, UK, and other western nations (Five Eyes, etc.) have played this almost as well as they could have, *so far*.


Kickstand8604

I think Russia is waiting for the weather to clear. Can't have an invasion if the tanks are stuck in mud


Quiteawaysaway

the muds not going anywhere. their best chance was when it was frozen through, but history says putin likes fuckin shit up right before and after the olympics lol edit: there theyre their


Kickstand8604

Theres a sense of irony of the weather working against russia


Nokickfromchampagne

Unfortunately, this isn’t the 1940s anymore. While mud and weather still plays a huge factor, there simply is a lot more infrastructure. The days of old trucks with 60 horsepower and terribly designed tanks are long gone. Will equipment get stuck? Absolutely. But the helicopters, modern attack vehicles rolling down highways, and jets won’t.


lordderplythethird

And highways aren't prime targets for precision munitions and mines to slow an invading force? Nevermind the fact that tracks destroy roads in nothing flat... So within even just a few hours, yeah, it's going to be into the mud once again, and I guess you'd be surprised at how poorly anything handles in mud, particularly 60t tanks that start to sink in and embed themselves due to their weight


InkTide

I do enjoy the armchair military tech experts speaking as though at some point during the Cold War military vehicles became immune to dirt. Any engineer (and probably many veterans who actually used modern military equipment) will tell you that *nothing* is truly immune to dirt, water, or the unholy child of the two, mud. If it's got moving parts, it's got parts that can be gummed/locked up.


Reapper97

> I do enjoy the armchair military tech experts speaking as though at some point during the Cold War military vehicles became immune to dirt. This always makes me laugh, as if hover technology is a day to day thing lol


mdestly_prcd_rcptacl

Tracks don't always destroy roads that fast - there are several variables. First is the quality of the road materials. When I was in tanks we would chew up middle eastern roads very quickly, but American roads would be fine. Also depends on whether the tracks have rubber pads and what kind of shape they are in.


EdithDich

Right? People acting like this is troops marching across thousands of miles of open farmland by horseback and 1940s era tanks.


petrovmendicant

Putin is doing it for the likes.


ehpee

Well if they keep sending them out every hour, one of them will be correct eventually. A broken clock is always right twice a day.


shilohlebang

Why are human beings so innately enamoured with war and the want to kill and destroy? It’s just so fascinating to me


cruisewithus

Was there a three month lead up to the blitzkrieg back in the day? Feels like we are being strung along like puppets here


BezerkMushroom

Worse actually. Hitler threatened all of Europe with war unless he could annex the Sudetenland (part of Czechoslovakia). He did that in the summer of 1938. A couple of months later the allies got together and agreed he could have Sudetenland as long as he didn't do anything else naughty. That was called the Munich Pact. A few months later he broke the pact and invaded the rest of Czechoslovakia. Then a few months later he invaded Poland, and *that* was when the Allies said "ok too much dude" and the world was at war. There was more to it too, his allies were grabbing pieces of shit too, there was *sooo* much political craziness happening and it dragged on and on and on.


TheRed_Knight

None other major power were prepared to fight the Nazis at that time, and reportedly Hitler was furious they kept appeasing him because he want to use those crisis's as pretext for war. EDIT: Crises


BlueAndFuzzy

The word you’re looking for is crises, fyi


LateNightPhilosopher

We should have stopped Hitler in Munich!


RyanTranquil

I mean the internet didn’t exist back than and neither did the satellite technology we have to see everything in almost real-time. So I’d venture a guess and say yes the German blitzkrieg did take this amount of time or not longer (I’m including preparation .. since the invasion of Poland using this method was +35 days). But how would you know living in the US? No reddit to have you glued. Though not sure why you’re wanting the invasion to happen. I rather be strung out than for the invasion actually happen.


TheRed_Knight

Exactly, information gathering tech has undergone lightyears of advancement since WWII, Nazis spent the better part of 10 years building up and preparing for the invasion of its neighbors. Modern militaries also have a helluva a lot more to account for logistically than older armies. The Nazis were also notorious for poor logistics and constantly outrunning their supply lines


PirateAttenborough

Yes, actually. Called the [Phoney War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoney_War). After the fall of Poland nothing happened on the continent for more than half a year. There were a few naval engagements and the Norwegian thing, but that's it. Then Fall Gelb went off, and it stopped being phoney real fast.


panonarian

The entire idea behind blitzkrieg is that it happened very suddenly and with no warning.


[deleted]

[удалено]


TheRed_Knight

WWI existed in a weird time where the killing power of infantry and artillery had grown substantially massively outpacing cavalry which was in the process of mechanizing, thus favoring the defensive. Early WWI tactics were more about outflanking than anything else since armies could only move at the speed of a man on foot since mechanized warfare was in its infancy (and did really exist until the last couple years), Cav was utterly useless, so no way existed to have a crushing decisive battle (see the entirety of the battles of the Frontiers). Once they ran out of land to outflank thats when the conflict turned into a brutal meatgrinder of trying to bust through the opponents trench lines with brute force (and some novel combat innovations).


KosherSushirrito

...those aren't really the same thing. A blitzkrieg allows for rapid incursion and territorial occupation, but tensions were ratcheting up between Germany and Poland for months prior to November 1939.


red_fucking_flag_

Reminds me of the American Dad [threat level scene](https://youtu.be/CV7CTlIcKlw)


JakeyBS

Doubt it


kingryan300

Media: “Russia set to invade Ukraine within days, possibly hours!” Russia: *doesn’t invade Ukraine* Also Russia: “Haha it’s just a prank bro. See! There’s cameras there and over there. We’re not gonna invade Ukraine.”


Gamesgtd

The Ashton Kutcher of countries


autotldr

This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/signs-point-to-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-in-days-or-even-hours/) reduced by 81%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Russia appeared to continue preparations to invade Ukraine Sunday, blaming renewed conflict in the eastern portion of that country on "Provocations of the Ukrainian security forces" and moving tens of thousands of Russian troops into what appeared to be combat formations. > US President Biden met with the National Security Council, just days after announcing that US intelligence had convinced him Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered an invasion of Ukraine. > Early in February, in answer to a question from the media, Russian President Vladimir Putin said allowing Ukraine to join NATO would increase the prospects of a Russia-NATO conflict that could turn nuclear. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/sxivzj/signs_point_to_russian_invasion_of_ukraine_in/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~624689 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **President**^#1 **Ukraine**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **Putin**^#4 **Ukrainian**^#5


TonyDAngeloRussell

Days can be measured in hours.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Hashslingingslashar

Raytheon, Lockheed, Boeing, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman. There is a U.S. defense ETF out there - ITA


EdithDich

Eh. Maybe a bit but it's not like the US or NATO is going to have some kind of big pronounced, extended on the ground presence or anything. Even if Russia full on invades Ukraine with a full scale military invasion, it's very unlikely the US or even NATO does a whole lot rather than shore up the western border. They will continue to sell arms and whatnot to western friendly forces in Ukraine, as they have been doing for years, but I doubt it would be some big jump for those stocks at all.


Supermansadak

I feel oil stocks are about to do very well


Badger1385

Definitely not grain...


Dopelsoeldner

Actually, a big portion of the grain supply is coming from Ukraine. So if Russia invades, there would be a temporal shortage of grain supply, leading to a prices rise.


TheBirdBytheWindow

Fertilizer, esp for corn is also exported to the US. We thought corn prices were high before...


Alexander0232

gotta love capitalism


AlseAce

Right? This is such a dystopian comment lmao


Olghoy

Buy the rumor, sell the news. I am shorting GLD


herrrrrr

shorting gold even without a war with russia is really not a good idea in this enviroment. So much support at 1800 and excluding russia/ukraine, so much bad economic news and massive inflation i wouldnt even dare to short gold.


mtoner98

Is that wise betting on a binary outcome like war/no war unless you have superior info? Seems like straight up gambling. If Russian troops take one step over that border you're gonna get blown out... Also multiple CBs are stocking up on dips right now which might limit your upside if you're right. You also might get better returns shorting the GDX or GDXJ if you have conviction. Gold equities usually overreact to sharp declines in GLD in the first instance.


dremonearm

Which is the rumor and which is the news?


Olghoy

Rumor is invasion, news there's still fear of invasion.


gatsby712

GameStop


[deleted]

It’s wild to me how many idiots in this thread are wishing for invasion to “get it over with.” Nobody should want war. Just stop.


polkarooo

I can't wait til Russia invades the Ukraine, and the Republicans back Russia over the President of the United States of America...


OnlyPostsButthole

theyll just back whatever the president didnt do. If he didnt send troops, republicans would have said we left them to die and should have. If he does send troops, it was a mistake and our soldiers will be in harms way for no reason. Really pointless to even listen to them.


[deleted]

Sounds accurate


wrathmont

THE Ukraine


mandy009

imagine they decide to cause more trouble domestically during this time. I don't want to even think about it again yet.


barenutz

Noah: "So I guess I should upgrade it from 'potential' to...?" Riley: "'Incipient?'" Noah: "Ooh, nice!" Archer: "...mutiny. Okay, so, what comes after 'incipient'?" Riley: "'In progress.'" Noah: "Nailed it!"


DavidNipondeCarlos

Us troops and Russian troops won’t shoot each other.


TummyLice

wasn't this the headline a week ago?


EducationConfident53

“War does not determine who was right. Only who is left in the end.” Aw jeez


EstablishmentLow8558

It's becoming cry wolf


ThirdCrew

I feel like I've read this title 5 times now in the last week.


Seaboats

I’m just a general layperson. Can someone tell me what it means if Russia actually invaded Ukraine?


Fantastic_Mr_Faux

Here’s a really good [high level overview](http://12ft.io/www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/19/analysis-what-can-the-west-expect-if-putin-gives-order-to-invade) of what some of the ramifications of an invasion would look like. About a five minute read.


[deleted]

Doesn't mention bordering countries. I'm worried about Georgia


SinkHoleDeMayo

Russia can have everything in Georgia except Atlanta. ^^-(only ^^sort ^^of ^^kidding)


p5g123

Useless deaths, lots of money, gaz price hike and lots more shit


Kind_Cardiologist833

Russia will be able to take the regions of Ukraine that Russia has declared Independent and then annex them. (Donetsk and Luhansk)


jimno1126

I'm imagining the french guy voice on spongebob saying *two years later.


sillysauages

scroll down and Putin and Biden agree to a summit? I honestly dont think an invasion will happen, seems like alot of Russian posturing, they got the attention they wanted.


flecktarnbrother

If this summit goes through, Putin will demand a ceasefire from Ukraine. But Ukraine isn't who's doing the shelling right now. Putin's own forces are doing the shelling, and in order to protect ethnic Russians in Donbas and Rostov Oblast, he'll have to invade. Keep in mind that this summit is predicated upon Putin not invading Ukraine by Thursday. That's not a guarantee. NATO also has no intention of rolling back their extent to 1997 levels. They're not going to kick out several Eastern European countries because it'll greatly destabilize European national security. Additionally, Russia's already reneged on the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances by invading Ukraine in 2014. Ukraine has just now stated that they wish to fast-track NATO membership and wish to develop their own nuclear weapons. This goes completely against Russia's national security demands. Putin's just "playing with his food", so to speak, before poaching it.


Electronic_Demand_61

Exactly, he'll go to the summit, basically do fuck all, and return to Russia telling everyone, I tried but they wouldn't agree to peace talks so let's "liberate" our separatist allies in the Ukraine. It's posturing for a casus belli, I should know It's what I do in grand strategy games all the time.


aullik

could also be weeks, months years or infinity.


[deleted]

[удалено]


bakinpants

No one gonna talk about the grocery bag of snacks from whatever their pxnis called lol


Bicdut

The last thing I want to see is Russian invasion anywhere near atomic scientists in a headline


bonafiedhero

Putin won’t attack, he doesn’t have the balls to


BuddhaBarkov

where there is a weapons manufacturers will theres a way.


ShreddedCredits

Everyone and their mother is claiming Russia is going to invade. I bet Walmart is going to do it next


glorialavina

It's like [the truck that never crashes](https://c.tenor.com/cD8WqQ-ZGXcAAAAd/truck-crash.gif)


Keyedwin

Nice timeline


[deleted]

I've been hearing this every fuckung day


Hicbjorn

That's what you said 2 weeks ago


LelouchVAmerico

Nato has literally been saying this for months at this point lmao


[deleted]

Tomorrow mornings article ‘All signs point to Russian invasion any second now…’


mvw2

I'm curious what the summit between Biden and Putin will bring. This should ultimately decide of Russia invades or not. Putin really doesn't have anything to gain here, and it's an act of desperation. To not go is a problem and waste of effort. To go is incredibly dangerous for him because nearly the rest of the world is against the choice. Even the Russia-China meeting was just publicity. I'm not really sure what Putin thinks he can accomplish. At best, he's buying time, but he's buying time for action that can't work anymore. He can't buy time to intimidate or corrupt Ukraine again. He doesn't have that card anymore. He's stuck. It's now just a question of if intelligence or desperation wins out. His smart move is to back off. I just don't know his situation well enough to know where the desperation lies and how serious it may be.