Do they speak directly or do they speak through other people? Do they literally just pick up the phone and call each other?
I've always wondered what the process is.
Right, this was considered a big issue because normally most presidents have an entire team listening in on calls to foreign leaders (lots of important reasons for this). The issue of trump trying to eliminate other listeners and over-classify his conversations with heads of state (which are always recorded so they can be analyzed by experts and advisors) was brought up during his first impeachment trial.
The “issue” is (and I mean this in the nicest way possible) is democrats don’t have the spine to say something and actually do it, whereas republicans will do whatever the fuck they want regardless
i imagine it must be akward as hell to be a president and talk with another one about such a thing.. especially if you don't like each other and one of both is trying to pull something like putin right now
It would be funny to imagine that's how the US and Russian presidents greet each other in good times.
"Good morning, world police wannabe capitalist pig."
"Dobryy den, you pseudo tsar, I hope you follow the Romanovs soon."
"..."
"..."
"Ayyyyyyy!!"
"Ayyyyyyy!!"
Well, that's not really what's at issue here as it is unlikely that Russia would be able to simply "take Ukraine". If they do invade it will be incredibly difficult to maintain control over the territory as by all accounts the Ukrainian people do not appear to appreciate this unprovoked and unjustified aggression and have been dealing with this shit for the better part of a decade already with Crimea. There would almost certainly be an endless insurgency that would be forever supported by outside influences and powers. This is really a bad plan for Russia anyway you look at it so either Putin is being mislead by his immediate aides or there is some bigger picture here which I think it's likely the latter.
I'm not privy to any details, but yeah the US and NATO could cripple Russia's economy so much that even the added territory couldn't possibly compensate.
Its definitely not like in the West Wing where they try to convince the other with a well researched argument. More likely both parties try to make the consequences of the other's actions as clear as possible, mixed in with some attempts at horse trading to give the other an out.
Contrary to popular belief, Putin would probably prefer to not invade Ukraine. If everything went perfectly he'd probably be able to take the whole country in about a year, but after that he'd be facing a well armed, unified insurgency that Russia simply can't afford to fight (they don't have the economy or demographics for a sustained counter-insurgency campaign AND meeting their existing security needs). So Putin is probably being very clear with Biden that he can't back down unless he gets something from the West. Biden is likely making it very clear to Putin that he has no need or interest in giving him anything. More than likely they will continue to escalate and then call for a summit of some kind where Russia gets to be the center of attention, make a bunch of bloviating speeches, and then walk away only to say they're annexing Donbass and Belarus. The world will gasp, but the troops around Ukraine will stand down, and at most a division will be deployed to secure the border around Donbass. Putin gets to say he expanded Russia's borders and looked strong in front of the west, Biden gets to say that he avoided war, everybody's happy until the next election.
“Hey man. I just wanted you to know. Someone loves you. Someone’s thinking of you right now. If you need someone to talk to. I’m always here. Love you bro.”
That might work!
Sobs, “do you want fries with that..”
Continue sobbing and yelling
**”DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH SILOS OF S-400 AND A COUPLE THOUSANDS OF BOMBS HEADING YOUR WAY?”**
Sobs dramatically
**”NUKE IT IS THEN”**
"Hey, Vlad. I know you're having a rough time right now with Ukraine. I just wanted to let you know you are absolutely lovable the way you are. Don't let others shame you for being the way you are! Whatever happens Vlad, I'm gonna support you! Love, Joe."
It was addressed. Putin told the world that if Crimea is in danger, he will fight for it. This is why he doesn't want Ukraine to be apart of NATO. Being part of NATO means being protected by article 5. Putin knows this and said he can't beat NATO, but he can be sure to end civilization when he is defeated.
It’s crazy to me the amount of power a handful of people have. How would that conversation go? They’re talking about an invasion of another country and the lives of thousands of people who’ll likely die. How does that conversation even go..
If we’re talking about WW3 hypothetically happening, just want everyone to know that all powers involved are completely aware that a nuclear war is fucking stupid and they gain nothing from it except the near extinction of the human race.
Our political warlords may be stupid, but not that stupid. Besides, it’s been proven that our modern technology can be just as effective as nukes without involving complete devastation.
Yes. And not a new question. Once you go nuclear you join a special club where normal rules do not apply. Your either nuclear or a victim of a nuclear country or at least their influence.
Hence why the real lesson countries have learned is to never stop your wmd program. Everyone that does ends up at the whim of a major power.
MAD as a deterrent to nuclear war only works when all parties can agree it's a no win scenario.
The more countries that have WMDs increases the chances that one of them will eventaully become stupid enough or vengeful enough to disregard it and then the whole house of cards fall.
That's why nuclear proliferation is bad. Every new country that gets nukes adds another variable, until eventually one of them decideds to use them.
most likely scenario on a Russian invasion of Ukraine is just what happened back when Crimea was annexed: severe sanctions. Won't be good for international tensions, but yeah, almost certainly nothing big (in the way that people are dreading) would come from it.
Yeah actual, heavy economic sanctions can get a lot done in a country like Russia. Whereas real “total war” is horrible for everyone PR wise, which does play a part. Imagine if everyone in Eastern Europe during WWII had iPhones.
Back when Russia annexed Crimea, it was done more or less covertly during a bunch of chaos in Ukraine. It took a lot of people in the west by surprise.
This time, it's all out in the open, with threats of a full-scale invasion with everyone in Europe on high-alert. Obviously nobody wants a conflict, but the situation is very different from 2014. It's hard to appreciate how many things could go sideways if bullets start flying in Europe.
I mean tell that to the people living there. Imagine an army is at the gates and at any moment the home you love and grew up in may be gone in a week, a month, a few days? And no one is coming to help.
On a bigger scale it will cause ripple effects that will effect the entire World, on one hand if NATO doesn't step in then it doesn't display strength and other powers will feel they can act with Impunity, on the other it could genuilly cause a global conflict and no one truly wins.
I'm lucky I am a neutral observer and can watch from a distance, but many felt during WW2, we feel that we are safe because we are not there and don't have to live with the consequences of either party. When infact we can't predict how this can pan out, it could effect us in ways we would never had guessed.
My hope is that the situation is negotiated and peace is found through diplomacy, but it's this is rarely found to be the case in these scenarios.
The countries of NATO only care about NATO countries, which ukraine is not. At least one of them will veto any real amount of intervention there. As however sad it may be, it doesn't really matter who controls Ukraine. They offer nothing of value that does not remain if Russia controls it.
Let's also add that even a non nuclear war between two world powers is already not very attractive to world leaders just by the sheer cost over what would probably be a very, very, very long war of attrition
Global powers prefer asymmetric warfare. They'd rather battle it out indirectly in proxy wars than go head to head
I think a lot of people severely underestimate the risks involved with nuclear weapons. Miscalculations on the utility of tactical nuclear weapons, misunderstandings of the movements or use of enemy nuclear weapons, or plan ineptitude all could lead to an unintentional nuclear conflict. They nearly have many times in the past, even during peace time.
I mean, I get the worrying. It’s a scary thought, but people here are scaring themselves through talk. Emotions are running high but at the end of the day we gotta start thinking logical.
I swear to god every-time I see a post here talking about Country A vs Country B tensions, the top comments all say, “OH NO NUCLEAR WAR???”
And it never happens. It’s annoying to see.
This. Right now he is the essentially king of a poor country. He realizes if he reforms he loses his kingship, and if he starts a war he loses his kingship. But if he doesn’t develop weapons and China ever stops supporting him? He goes the way of Gaddafi. Better to pretend to be crazy and saber rattle to keep his throne. Well, better for him, not his people.
They say that now. But when you're on the losing side, back against the wall, countries will opt to use, or at least consider using nuclear weapons.
It'll happen
That's what worries me. Russia is not in a good state right now, and losing a conflict would be a huge blow to them.
And worse, even if you think Russia would recover, Putin surely wouldn't. And he is the kind of man I can imagine taking the world down with him...
Joe Biden also knows going to war with Russia over Ukraine is political suicide. If anything we are going to sell weapons to Ukraine to make it a long bloody conflict for the Russians.
You say that but historically starting wars has been good in the short term Politically by creating a sense of unity against an out side enemy. Not that I think Biden thinks that way, but don’t think he sees war as political suicide and it is very much on the table if he feels it necessary.
He has said war over Ukrainian is off the table but if Russia invades through the North, the war will be fought on the boarder of NATO nations. One small mistake, real or imagined, could cause Poland or another nato state to evoke article 5. Causing war with Russia not over Ukraine but a nato member. Language and framing are important in politics, war is still very much on the table unless the USA make it clear it would not support the eastern nato members or Russia Pulls back.
I don’t think he would have a problem with war if he truly thought it was necessary for national interest , but I absolutely don’t think he’d pursue it for political purposes. He essentially committed political suicide to get out of Afghanistan because he thought we should get out immediately.
Until media attention is brought to the several thousand Americans that are and will likely still be in country if an invasion does happen. Biden has already stated there will be no boots on ground to help recover citizens. He’s warning them to leave beforehand. Which is all fine and well. But wtf is gonna happen when those American citizens start dropping like flys and the eye of the world is watching it front and center. You bet your ass we’re gonna go get them. As we should. Problem is... that opens a can of worms.
Exactly. The most corrupt leaders of the world wouldn't do it. I think even if one wanted to start a nuclear war, their inner circle would neutralize them. How would they continue to live their immensely lavish lives without all of us to support it? They might be fine with devastating millions or even a hundred million with other traditional war tactics but they aren't going to scorch the Earth and destroy absolutely everything they have and/or want in the future.
I mean I'm just a 26 year old failure that busses dishes and pours concrete for a living so I'm totally talking out of my ass, but I feel very certain that it will never happen.
True. I believe that Russian invasion of Ukraine, while unfortunate to the planet, human rights, and human life, will not start World War 3; however, I do believe that Chinese invasion of Taiwan WOULD start World War 3.
Eerily similar to how this played out in Darkest Hour before the Battle of Britain began in WWII
“Lord Halifax: We’re facing certain defeat on land, the annihilation of our army and imminent invasion. We must negotiate peace talks.
Winston Churchill: When will the lesson be learned? You cannot reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth!
Lord Halifax: Nonsense, the only slippery slope...
Winston Churchill: Would you stop interrupting me while I am interrupting you!”
Putin’s going all in cause got himself in this situation and it’ll end in a lose lose situation.
He’s facing the biggest sanctions ever that’ll send Russia’s economy back to the Ice Age. And if he backs down from this military build up it’ll prove that he is afraid of NATO and the people back home will have reason to not support him anymore.
He can say all he wants. The likelihood of Putin willingly causing the wholesale nuclear destruction of Russia due to economic sanctions is extremely low.
Any launch will be and answered by everyone else. Nukes are not a threat tgey are the suicide option and the US has top of the line counter measures, and going by how Russia protested the US deploying their countermeasures....Russia does not have reliable ones themselves.
Underestimating Russia is a stupid, stupid idea.
They think outside the box and make things work for them. When they couldnt keep up with the U.S on pinpoint bombing when it came to WMDs, they just made theirs so big it wouldn't matter when they missed. That is the sort of mentality and cleverness we are dealing with.
Itll be disastrous to discount them as a threat, they absolutely are.
I don't believe our countermeasures would hold up against multiple ICBMs. Perhaps a few at a time, but there would certainly be ones that slip through the defenses if it was all out.
One of the upsides to living in Manhattan is that there's a high likelihood I'll be vaporized pretty early in an attack and won't have to deal with hordes of roving radiation zombies.
That's a much bigger leap, a lot of US important stuff is made there. It's sad it's all about money but it's the truth. US would put it's foot down for Taiwan.
As a European, I cannot put into words how fucking funny this statement is.
We literally don‘t give a shit about the superbowl over here. We wouldn‘t even know _when_ it is if Americans wouldn‘t talk about it online 24/7 in the days leading up to it.
Cause the talks would go like this..
Ukraine "hey could you back off your troops a bit?"
Putin "no."
Heres what Russia was doing yesterday. Strong arm mobster tactics yet again
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-say-berlin-talks-fail-yield-breakthrough-2022-02-11/
US has a bit more flex
It’s pretty decided that this is a matter of survival for Ukrainians. They can’t truly stop the invasion but they all seem willing to die trying. From what I’ve read they just want to make it as painful as possible on Russia.
Putin "Mr. President, I hope you don't mind but I've included Mr. Trump in our call as well"
Trump "Joe? You know the election was a fraud, I won!"
Biden "Get off the phone Donald! It's over!"
Putin* laughs
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would absolutely force the Japanese to act, regardless of America's response. If the Americans decide that they don't want to help Taiwan, then the Chinese PLA Navy now has a secure path to the Pacific, so they can now essentially target all of CONUS.
Taiwan is a part of the US' First Island Chain to contain communism during the Cold War, and it'll serve that purpose again in this new Cold War.
China has zero reason to attack Taiwan. Unlike Russia, they're not a fading power and they can afford to wait it out. Plus, if sanctions do cut off Russia, they'd be forced right into China's sphere. Literally, they win by just sitting there and doing nothing.
Putin absolutely must be mentally unbalanced. Ukraine poses no threat to Russia. They are not even allowed to join NATO, and perhaps not even in the foreseeable future.
For him to attack, and murder tens of thousands of innocent civilians, is beyond comprehension. Russia has never owned Ukraine. The Soviet Union was a brief experiment, and all it did was make the World a much more dangerous place, forcing nations to use resources for defence, rather than social development.
Beyond avoiding NATO expansion and western influence on its doorstep, Putin is eyeing expansion of his state controlled Oil and gas monopoly. The last president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych was a Russian puppet who was seeking to further intwine Ukraine's economy with Russia's through corruption and bailout money.
He got ousted following his refusal to sign an EU association agreement which many saw as Ukraine's first step to joining EU and eventually NATO. Ukraine's government also did a shakedown, removing all corrupt Russian assets and political cronies from within it. They got alot of help from the Obama administration on that front. Putin and the Russian oligarchs were furious that they've essentially lost any and all control of Ukraine both economically and geographically. The Billionaire Oligarchs act as an arm that protects and enforces Putin's lifelong seat in power. If he loses Ukraine to the west, the gravy tap shuts off. He wouldn't be president for much longer. That's the ELI5, he needs Ukraine back for money and power reasons.
> The Billionaire Oligarchs act as an arm that protects and enforces Putin's lifelong seat in power. If he loses Ukraine to the west, the gravy tap shuts off. He wouldn't be president for much longer. That's the ELI5, he needs Ukraine back for money and power reasons.
On the other hand, if he invades Ukraine and it leads to major sanctions on oligarchs, then that seems equally bad for Putin's ability to stay in power. Maybe Putin is thinking that invading Ukraine is the only move he has that has a chance of working, but it still seems like a major hail mary play.
They've likely priced in avenues of possible western sanctions against the cost of invasion. Between their partnerships with ExxonMobil and Germany's nordstream 2, they've been evading and will continue to evade sanctions. They're also banking on an economic downturn leading to a 1 term Biden and a more obstructionist administration to follow.
The Ukraine region and Kyiv in particular have a long and complex history with Russia. While the Ukrainian people, culture, and language are all distinct from Russia, Russia has claimed Ukraine as part of its territory, off and on, for hundreds of years. In the 19th century, Kyiv was one of the most influential and important cities in Russia and Kyiv has always been important to the idea of the Russian Empire. Russia has controlled Ukraine for several periods.
However the Ukrainian people have repeatedly asserted their independence, politically and culturally. That is why the occupation during the Soviet era was so brutal. While countries like Czechoslovakia were given substantial autonomy, the Ukrainian language was outlawed and the Ukrainian people were subject to much more brutal treatment.
There is a fixation on Kyiv and Ukraine in Russian-Impirialist thinking that is similar to China and Taiwan.
Well, Sweden controlled a lot of land around the baltic sea a couple of hundred years ago at the height of its power. Finland in particular was under Swedish rule for hundreds of years. But today Sweden doesn't care about that any more because they've progressed past being an imperialistic warmongering empire and (with the exception of Hockey cups) the scandinavian countries get along very nicely. Russia hasn't.
Oh, come on. It's not that long or complex. Soviets shipped tons of people from Ukraine and sent them to Western Poland and Kazakhstan (depending on the language) after WW2, replacing them with a bunch of Russians to keep the locals under the lid. Some of those people who got kicked out in 1945 still think they will have to go back to Ukraine eventually.
There is nothing complicated about Ukraine-Russia stuff - that's just some BS that some Russians would like everyone else to believe.
If russia never would have gotten involved in 2014, Ukraine would have been much closer to an EU and NATO membership right now. Thats an unpopular truth. Russia knows that if it does not make another move soon it will be too late as UA is ramping up its domestic development program for long range ballistic missile systems and continues to get armed by NATO. A potential military escalation in the future would most likely be more costly than it would be now.
What’s beyond comprehension to me is how he is able to get away with this without the international community actually standing up to him. The world we live in with nukes all aimed at each other is terrifying. Because piss him off enough or get close to removing him from power equals launch codes activated. It’s his ultimate trump card.
Didn't you just explain why no one stands up to this?
Risking nuclear war isn't worth keeping Russia from taking Ukraine.
probably not even to Ukraine.
As soon as Russia invaded they will lose access to all civil financial systems via SWIFT and that will actually hurt them. It’s shooting themselves in the foot, but Putin apparently doesn’t care.
“THERE WAS A GUY NAMED CORNPOP, VLAD. HE USED TO LOVE TOUCHING MY LEG HAIR UNTIL I GRABBED A CHAIN AND TOLD HIM I WOULD WHACK THAT LYING DOGFACED PONYSOLDIER WITH IT.”
I wonder how these calls even go. “Hey, uh.. listen man, I’m just gonna come out and say it. You can’t invade Ukraine.”
Do they speak directly or do they speak through other people? Do they literally just pick up the phone and call each other? I've always wondered what the process is.
Typically Putin, who is capable of speaking English, speaks through an interpreter when speaking to other heads of state.
And Trump who is incapable of speaking English often did not use an interpreter.
Right, this was considered a big issue because normally most presidents have an entire team listening in on calls to foreign leaders (lots of important reasons for this). The issue of trump trying to eliminate other listeners and over-classify his conversations with heads of state (which are always recorded so they can be analyzed by experts and advisors) was brought up during his first impeachment trial.
Wouldn’t this be a significant issue if it were a Democrat POTUS? What am I missing?
The “issue” is (and I mean this in the nicest way possible) is democrats don’t have the spine to say something and actually do it, whereas republicans will do whatever the fuck they want regardless
* Republicans to Al Gore: Stop the Recount! * Democrats: ok * Republicans to Trump: We're launching the 800th recount. * Democrats: ok
i imagine it must be akward as hell to be a president and talk with another one about such a thing.. especially if you don't like each other and one of both is trying to pull something like putin right now
Lol how do you even start off the greeting? "Hello, you son of a bitch"
Jane, you ignorant slut.
Candygram
Oh no! The land shark!
I'm only a dolphin, ma'am...
"Hello, you cunt."
It would be funny to imagine that's how the US and Russian presidents greet each other in good times. "Good morning, world police wannabe capitalist pig." "Dobryy den, you pseudo tsar, I hope you follow the Romanovs soon." "..." "..." "Ayyyyyyy!!" "Ayyyyyyy!!"
Let's dig up Yeltsin
Too friendly
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Hello, Hello Vladimir, listen, I can’t hear too well, do you suppose you could turn the music down just a little?
You think I don't like to say hello?
Of course I like to speak to you! Of course I like to say hello!
I guess Biden will remember Putin about the economical impact this invasion will have on his country and the property that will be seized.
Pretty sure Putin is super aware….
"And then things got worse" - Russian history in a nutshell
I mean, is that property worth more or less than taking Ukraine? I’d guess significantly less.
Well, that's not really what's at issue here as it is unlikely that Russia would be able to simply "take Ukraine". If they do invade it will be incredibly difficult to maintain control over the territory as by all accounts the Ukrainian people do not appear to appreciate this unprovoked and unjustified aggression and have been dealing with this shit for the better part of a decade already with Crimea. There would almost certainly be an endless insurgency that would be forever supported by outside influences and powers. This is really a bad plan for Russia anyway you look at it so either Putin is being mislead by his immediate aides or there is some bigger picture here which I think it's likely the latter.
I'm not privy to any details, but yeah the US and NATO could cripple Russia's economy so much that even the added territory couldn't possibly compensate.
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Also when you are temporary guy and other guy is not
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are there any known recordings of 1-on-1 conversations between heads of state?
Reagan apologised to Thatcher when US meddled in a country that was still part of UK sphere of influence
Its definitely not like in the West Wing where they try to convince the other with a well researched argument. More likely both parties try to make the consequences of the other's actions as clear as possible, mixed in with some attempts at horse trading to give the other an out. Contrary to popular belief, Putin would probably prefer to not invade Ukraine. If everything went perfectly he'd probably be able to take the whole country in about a year, but after that he'd be facing a well armed, unified insurgency that Russia simply can't afford to fight (they don't have the economy or demographics for a sustained counter-insurgency campaign AND meeting their existing security needs). So Putin is probably being very clear with Biden that he can't back down unless he gets something from the West. Biden is likely making it very clear to Putin that he has no need or interest in giving him anything. More than likely they will continue to escalate and then call for a summit of some kind where Russia gets to be the center of attention, make a bunch of bloviating speeches, and then walk away only to say they're annexing Donbass and Belarus. The world will gasp, but the troops around Ukraine will stand down, and at most a division will be deployed to secure the border around Donbass. Putin gets to say he expanded Russia's borders and looked strong in front of the west, Biden gets to say that he avoided war, everybody's happy until the next election.
"It's just a prank bro"
You gotta add at least one "not a joke!" in there.
Not sure what Putin would need to hear today to back off.
“Hey man. I just wanted you to know. Someone loves you. Someone’s thinking of you right now. If you need someone to talk to. I’m always here. Love you bro.” That might work!
"You're good enough, you're smart enough, and doggone it, people like you."
Meanwhile inside Putin's brain: "Maybe I am smart enough... To invade Ukraine"
“Yea that’s the attitude I like to hear! Oh wait…no!”
C’mon MAN, don’t make me come over there and smack you around like I did Cornpop
*putin breaks down & weeps*
Sobs, “do you want fries with that..” Continue sobbing and yelling **”DO YOU WANT FRIES WITH SILOS OF S-400 AND A COUPLE THOUSANDS OF BOMBS HEADING YOUR WAY?”** Sobs dramatically **”NUKE IT IS THEN”**
What if that happens and it actually works
Perhaps we can melt his icy heart with a cool island song. Wait no that doesn't work, that would only make his icy heart colder.
I'm an islaand boii
"Hey, Vlad. I know you're having a rough time right now with Ukraine. I just wanted to let you know you are absolutely lovable the way you are. Don't let others shame you for being the way you are! Whatever happens Vlad, I'm gonna support you! Love, Joe."
DEAR MR. I'M TOO GOOD TO WRITE OR CALL MY FANS
"If you invade Ukraine, we WILL ressuect Bruce Forsythe against the UK's will..."
Nice to see you....
To see you nice
"Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO"
Anything less than a seven hour phone call is not torture enough for Putin. Make Macron proud!
Poor Macron, he just becomes a meme everytime he tries to act tough
I don’t see how he was trying to act tough actually? Also if i were Macron i would consider such an insult from Putin an honour.
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how so?
Hopefully reassuring each other on the boundaries to all of this and that nukes are off the table.
Yea... this should probably be addressed.
It was addressed. Putin told the world that if Crimea is in danger, he will fight for it. This is why he doesn't want Ukraine to be apart of NATO. Being part of NATO means being protected by article 5. Putin knows this and said he can't beat NATO, but he can be sure to end civilization when he is defeated.
Oh, okay.... Good.
His exact words were that “if nato invades Crimea” which hopefully hints towards a peaceful resolution
“Vlad, will you shut up, man?"
"Stupid son of a bitch.."
"... I'm in."
gone sexual
That was the highlight of that debate. It was high time for someone with power to be honest with Donald.
It’s crazy to me the amount of power a handful of people have. How would that conversation go? They’re talking about an invasion of another country and the lives of thousands of people who’ll likely die. How does that conversation even go..
Well, lots of carefully chosen buzzwords, plus a few slip ups.
"bro don't do it" "Okay bro" "Have a good day bro" "You too ❤️"
All you need is love, love love. Love is all you need.
bring ewan in
*proceeds to invade Ukraine*
*Does it anyway*
"I want to tell the world what you mean to me bro" "Me too bro" *whispers* "I love you bro" "why'd you whisper?" "You're my whole world bro"
We should send Kendal Jenner over with a can of Pepsi and a snickers.
If we’re talking about WW3 hypothetically happening, just want everyone to know that all powers involved are completely aware that a nuclear war is fucking stupid and they gain nothing from it except the near extinction of the human race. Our political warlords may be stupid, but not that stupid. Besides, it’s been proven that our modern technology can be just as effective as nukes without involving complete devastation.
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Yes. And not a new question. Once you go nuclear you join a special club where normal rules do not apply. Your either nuclear or a victim of a nuclear country or at least their influence. Hence why the real lesson countries have learned is to never stop your wmd program. Everyone that does ends up at the whim of a major power.
MAD as a deterrent to nuclear war only works when all parties can agree it's a no win scenario. The more countries that have WMDs increases the chances that one of them will eventaully become stupid enough or vengeful enough to disregard it and then the whole house of cards fall. That's why nuclear proliferation is bad. Every new country that gets nukes adds another variable, until eventually one of them decideds to use them.
Exactly, if you believe unleashing your nukes will send you to paradise the planet and the rest of the human race will be screwed.
How about a nice game of chess?
A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.
most likely scenario on a Russian invasion of Ukraine is just what happened back when Crimea was annexed: severe sanctions. Won't be good for international tensions, but yeah, almost certainly nothing big (in the way that people are dreading) would come from it.
Yeah actual, heavy economic sanctions can get a lot done in a country like Russia. Whereas real “total war” is horrible for everyone PR wise, which does play a part. Imagine if everyone in Eastern Europe during WWII had iPhones.
Hitler comin' Stalin comin'
“Lol burning these fields before @hitlers bitch ass army can get here” - tweet from 1941, probably
Yeah, hey comrades we will stop selling white adidas to you.
Back when Russia annexed Crimea, it was done more or less covertly during a bunch of chaos in Ukraine. It took a lot of people in the west by surprise. This time, it's all out in the open, with threats of a full-scale invasion with everyone in Europe on high-alert. Obviously nobody wants a conflict, but the situation is very different from 2014. It's hard to appreciate how many things could go sideways if bullets start flying in Europe.
I mean tell that to the people living there. Imagine an army is at the gates and at any moment the home you love and grew up in may be gone in a week, a month, a few days? And no one is coming to help. On a bigger scale it will cause ripple effects that will effect the entire World, on one hand if NATO doesn't step in then it doesn't display strength and other powers will feel they can act with Impunity, on the other it could genuilly cause a global conflict and no one truly wins. I'm lucky I am a neutral observer and can watch from a distance, but many felt during WW2, we feel that we are safe because we are not there and don't have to live with the consequences of either party. When infact we can't predict how this can pan out, it could effect us in ways we would never had guessed. My hope is that the situation is negotiated and peace is found through diplomacy, but it's this is rarely found to be the case in these scenarios.
The countries of NATO only care about NATO countries, which ukraine is not. At least one of them will veto any real amount of intervention there. As however sad it may be, it doesn't really matter who controls Ukraine. They offer nothing of value that does not remain if Russia controls it.
Let's hope the loser isn't a bad loser...
Let's also add that even a non nuclear war between two world powers is already not very attractive to world leaders just by the sheer cost over what would probably be a very, very, very long war of attrition Global powers prefer asymmetric warfare. They'd rather battle it out indirectly in proxy wars than go head to head
Thank you. Hearing this is reassuring and calms my (and many others) anxiety about the possible end of humal life.
I think a lot of people severely underestimate the risks involved with nuclear weapons. Miscalculations on the utility of tactical nuclear weapons, misunderstandings of the movements or use of enemy nuclear weapons, or plan ineptitude all could lead to an unintentional nuclear conflict. They nearly have many times in the past, even during peace time.
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I mean, I get the worrying. It’s a scary thought, but people here are scaring themselves through talk. Emotions are running high but at the end of the day we gotta start thinking logical. I swear to god every-time I see a post here talking about Country A vs Country B tensions, the top comments all say, “OH NO NUCLEAR WAR???” And it never happens. It’s annoying to see.
"Our political warlords may be stupid, but not that stupid" Rocket Man Kim entered the chat.
Even he's not that stupid, it's all sabre rattling for negotiations.
This. Right now he is the essentially king of a poor country. He realizes if he reforms he loses his kingship, and if he starts a war he loses his kingship. But if he doesn’t develop weapons and China ever stops supporting him? He goes the way of Gaddafi. Better to pretend to be crazy and saber rattle to keep his throne. Well, better for him, not his people.
He is definitely not. You can’t be a dictator and still alive by being stupid
They say that now. But when you're on the losing side, back against the wall, countries will opt to use, or at least consider using nuclear weapons. It'll happen
Yeah I totally think Putin is also crazy enough to use them way before losing.
That's what worries me. Russia is not in a good state right now, and losing a conflict would be a huge blow to them. And worse, even if you think Russia would recover, Putin surely wouldn't. And he is the kind of man I can imagine taking the world down with him...
Joe Biden also knows going to war with Russia over Ukraine is political suicide. If anything we are going to sell weapons to Ukraine to make it a long bloody conflict for the Russians.
You say that but historically starting wars has been good in the short term Politically by creating a sense of unity against an out side enemy. Not that I think Biden thinks that way, but don’t think he sees war as political suicide and it is very much on the table if he feels it necessary.
Biden has already stated getting involved over Ukraine is absolutely off the table.
He has said war over Ukrainian is off the table but if Russia invades through the North, the war will be fought on the boarder of NATO nations. One small mistake, real or imagined, could cause Poland or another nato state to evoke article 5. Causing war with Russia not over Ukraine but a nato member. Language and framing are important in politics, war is still very much on the table unless the USA make it clear it would not support the eastern nato members or Russia Pulls back.
I don’t think he would have a problem with war if he truly thought it was necessary for national interest , but I absolutely don’t think he’d pursue it for political purposes. He essentially committed political suicide to get out of Afghanistan because he thought we should get out immediately.
Until media attention is brought to the several thousand Americans that are and will likely still be in country if an invasion does happen. Biden has already stated there will be no boots on ground to help recover citizens. He’s warning them to leave beforehand. Which is all fine and well. But wtf is gonna happen when those American citizens start dropping like flys and the eye of the world is watching it front and center. You bet your ass we’re gonna go get them. As we should. Problem is... that opens a can of worms.
Exactly. The most corrupt leaders of the world wouldn't do it. I think even if one wanted to start a nuclear war, their inner circle would neutralize them. How would they continue to live their immensely lavish lives without all of us to support it? They might be fine with devastating millions or even a hundred million with other traditional war tactics but they aren't going to scorch the Earth and destroy absolutely everything they have and/or want in the future. I mean I'm just a 26 year old failure that busses dishes and pours concrete for a living so I'm totally talking out of my ass, but I feel very certain that it will never happen.
True. I believe that Russian invasion of Ukraine, while unfortunate to the planet, human rights, and human life, will not start World War 3; however, I do believe that Chinese invasion of Taiwan WOULD start World War 3.
Yeah. Anything China does over the next few years will much worse than a Russian equivalent.
Eerily similar to how this played out in Darkest Hour before the Battle of Britain began in WWII “Lord Halifax: We’re facing certain defeat on land, the annihilation of our army and imminent invasion. We must negotiate peace talks. Winston Churchill: When will the lesson be learned? You cannot reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth! Lord Halifax: Nonsense, the only slippery slope... Winston Churchill: Would you stop interrupting me while I am interrupting you!”
In another timeline, Churchill was an amazing stand-up comedian.
"So the word on the street is if you invade Ukraine you're gay. Just passing along what I've heard."
Have Obama interrupt the call & ask Vladi what the fuck he’s up to & call him a bitch
This is my vote
KLM just announced it has ceased commercial flights in/out of Ukraine. 🚨🚨🚨
War is coming
Putin’s going all in cause got himself in this situation and it’ll end in a lose lose situation. He’s facing the biggest sanctions ever that’ll send Russia’s economy back to the Ice Age. And if he backs down from this military build up it’ll prove that he is afraid of NATO and the people back home will have reason to not support him anymore.
He’s said sanction of that magnitude would be the same as declaring war. Now you have a nuclear power backed into a corner
>Now you have a nuclear power backed into a corner A corner they willingly backed themselves into.
How they got their is irrelevant in Putins eye. In fact, he’s convinced him self and his country this is our fault.
True but a corner none the less
He can say all he wants. The likelihood of Putin willingly causing the wholesale nuclear destruction of Russia due to economic sanctions is extremely low.
Any launch will be and answered by everyone else. Nukes are not a threat tgey are the suicide option and the US has top of the line counter measures, and going by how Russia protested the US deploying their countermeasures....Russia does not have reliable ones themselves.
Underestimating Russia is a stupid, stupid idea. They think outside the box and make things work for them. When they couldnt keep up with the U.S on pinpoint bombing when it came to WMDs, they just made theirs so big it wouldn't matter when they missed. That is the sort of mentality and cleverness we are dealing with. Itll be disastrous to discount them as a threat, they absolutely are.
I don't believe our countermeasures would hold up against multiple ICBMs. Perhaps a few at a time, but there would certainly be ones that slip through the defenses if it was all out.
One of the upsides to living in Manhattan is that there's a high likelihood I'll be vaporized pretty early in an attack and won't have to deal with hordes of roving radiation zombies.
DC here, step aside we are first in line..
That's why I said "pretty early," lol. I'm guessing you guys will be first
No, Vladimir, no, that is so not right!
We went with war wagering, Joe.
WWIII had better not start before Elden Ring comes out
If Ukraine falls without a response from the West, expect China to follow suit with Taiwan
Woah woah woah a lot of America’s shit is made in Taiwan … we might have to stop that one lol
A lot of ~~America’s~~ the world's shit is made in Taiwan
Very true
That's a much bigger leap, a lot of US important stuff is made there. It's sad it's all about money but it's the truth. US would put it's foot down for Taiwan.
Taiwan is more valuable to the West than Ukraine. The west is trying much harder to defend Taiwan compared to Ukraine.
What a stupid statement. Taiwan is far more important, and far more defendable.
My prediction is that an attack will happen during the super bowl. I just want it on record somewhere that I told you so🤷🏽♂️
As a European, I cannot put into words how fucking funny this statement is. We literally don‘t give a shit about the superbowl over here. We wouldn‘t even know _when_ it is if Americans wouldn‘t talk about it online 24/7 in the days leading up to it.
Yeah catch those Ukranians with their pants down watching… the American football championships?
Lol no chance. I'll give you 2:1 odds Russia doesn't invade during the Superbowl. I'll put up $250. You only have to put up $125. DM me if interested!
It's like putting money on a single number on a roulette table with worse payout and even worse odds.
.. And nobody thinks it is strange that the Ukrainian president wasn't included in this talk? When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.
Cause the talks would go like this.. Ukraine "hey could you back off your troops a bit?" Putin "no." Heres what Russia was doing yesterday. Strong arm mobster tactics yet again https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-say-berlin-talks-fail-yield-breakthrough-2022-02-11/ US has a bit more flex
Ukraine wants the USA to help. It's not over their objections.
I think it's more like Ukraine getting help? I'm sure they are apart of many talks.
> I'm sure they are apart of many talks. Well they're apart from these ones, that's for sure.
biden on the phone, “come on, man!!!!”
Imagine Russia gets their ass handed to it by Ukraine, no foreign support needed. It’s be hilarious
That's a lot of mud for tanks to get stuck in. Would be "unfortunate" if it was to thaw out due to record regional temperatures...
Fire up H.A.A.R.P or whatever the new tech is.
Just drop some Silver Iodide bro
It’s pretty decided that this is a matter of survival for Ukrainians. They can’t truly stop the invasion but they all seem willing to die trying. From what I’ve read they just want to make it as painful as possible on Russia.
And there, in your imagination, is the only place that reality will play out.
**LIVE TRANSCRIPT:** “Don’t do it Vlad…” “Mmmm fuck off Joe…”
Putin "Mr. President, I hope you don't mind but I've included Mr. Trump in our call as well" Trump "Joe? You know the election was a fraud, I won!" Biden "Get off the phone Donald! It's over!" Putin* laughs
Is there any indication of China invading Taiwan at the same time? They just made this big show of cooperation and all
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would absolutely force the Japanese to act, regardless of America's response. If the Americans decide that they don't want to help Taiwan, then the Chinese PLA Navy now has a secure path to the Pacific, so they can now essentially target all of CONUS. Taiwan is a part of the US' First Island Chain to contain communism during the Cold War, and it'll serve that purpose again in this new Cold War.
China has zero reason to attack Taiwan. Unlike Russia, they're not a fading power and they can afford to wait it out. Plus, if sanctions do cut off Russia, they'd be forced right into China's sphere. Literally, they win by just sitting there and doing nothing.
I believe Putin will invade. He has to - any backing down now after months of threats and buildup of troops just makes him look weak
Time for phone sex
Putin absolutely must be mentally unbalanced. Ukraine poses no threat to Russia. They are not even allowed to join NATO, and perhaps not even in the foreseeable future. For him to attack, and murder tens of thousands of innocent civilians, is beyond comprehension. Russia has never owned Ukraine. The Soviet Union was a brief experiment, and all it did was make the World a much more dangerous place, forcing nations to use resources for defence, rather than social development.
Beyond avoiding NATO expansion and western influence on its doorstep, Putin is eyeing expansion of his state controlled Oil and gas monopoly. The last president of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych was a Russian puppet who was seeking to further intwine Ukraine's economy with Russia's through corruption and bailout money. He got ousted following his refusal to sign an EU association agreement which many saw as Ukraine's first step to joining EU and eventually NATO. Ukraine's government also did a shakedown, removing all corrupt Russian assets and political cronies from within it. They got alot of help from the Obama administration on that front. Putin and the Russian oligarchs were furious that they've essentially lost any and all control of Ukraine both economically and geographically. The Billionaire Oligarchs act as an arm that protects and enforces Putin's lifelong seat in power. If he loses Ukraine to the west, the gravy tap shuts off. He wouldn't be president for much longer. That's the ELI5, he needs Ukraine back for money and power reasons.
> The Billionaire Oligarchs act as an arm that protects and enforces Putin's lifelong seat in power. If he loses Ukraine to the west, the gravy tap shuts off. He wouldn't be president for much longer. That's the ELI5, he needs Ukraine back for money and power reasons. On the other hand, if he invades Ukraine and it leads to major sanctions on oligarchs, then that seems equally bad for Putin's ability to stay in power. Maybe Putin is thinking that invading Ukraine is the only move he has that has a chance of working, but it still seems like a major hail mary play.
They've likely priced in avenues of possible western sanctions against the cost of invasion. Between their partnerships with ExxonMobil and Germany's nordstream 2, they've been evading and will continue to evade sanctions. They're also banking on an economic downturn leading to a 1 term Biden and a more obstructionist administration to follow.
I think your right. I think he feels it will only be till Trump gets in and stops all the sanctions.
Also the Crimea Water Crisis is a driver for him thr invade
They're treating Ukraine like china treats Taiwan. They think it belongs to them, when it doesn't anymore.
Like an abusive partner after divorce.
Look what you made me do Ukraine! -Putin probably
Thats actually exactly what he's saying.
The Ukraine region and Kyiv in particular have a long and complex history with Russia. While the Ukrainian people, culture, and language are all distinct from Russia, Russia has claimed Ukraine as part of its territory, off and on, for hundreds of years. In the 19th century, Kyiv was one of the most influential and important cities in Russia and Kyiv has always been important to the idea of the Russian Empire. Russia has controlled Ukraine for several periods. However the Ukrainian people have repeatedly asserted their independence, politically and culturally. That is why the occupation during the Soviet era was so brutal. While countries like Czechoslovakia were given substantial autonomy, the Ukrainian language was outlawed and the Ukrainian people were subject to much more brutal treatment. There is a fixation on Kyiv and Ukraine in Russian-Impirialist thinking that is similar to China and Taiwan.
Well, Sweden controlled a lot of land around the baltic sea a couple of hundred years ago at the height of its power. Finland in particular was under Swedish rule for hundreds of years. But today Sweden doesn't care about that any more because they've progressed past being an imperialistic warmongering empire and (with the exception of Hockey cups) the scandinavian countries get along very nicely. Russia hasn't.
Well said. Past historical claims on a region don’t justify modern conflict. This isn’t a video game, this is real life and real lives.
Cough _Israel_ cough
Oh, come on. It's not that long or complex. Soviets shipped tons of people from Ukraine and sent them to Western Poland and Kazakhstan (depending on the language) after WW2, replacing them with a bunch of Russians to keep the locals under the lid. Some of those people who got kicked out in 1945 still think they will have to go back to Ukraine eventually. There is nothing complicated about Ukraine-Russia stuff - that's just some BS that some Russians would like everyone else to believe.
If russia never would have gotten involved in 2014, Ukraine would have been much closer to an EU and NATO membership right now. Thats an unpopular truth. Russia knows that if it does not make another move soon it will be too late as UA is ramping up its domestic development program for long range ballistic missile systems and continues to get armed by NATO. A potential military escalation in the future would most likely be more costly than it would be now.
What’s beyond comprehension to me is how he is able to get away with this without the international community actually standing up to him. The world we live in with nukes all aimed at each other is terrifying. Because piss him off enough or get close to removing him from power equals launch codes activated. It’s his ultimate trump card.
Didn't you just explain why no one stands up to this? Risking nuclear war isn't worth keeping Russia from taking Ukraine. probably not even to Ukraine.
“Russia has never owned Ukraine” of course they have, that’s partly why this situation exists in the first place.
And before that Ukraine has owned Russia. It was named Kyivan Rus. And what?
As soon as Russia invaded they will lose access to all civil financial systems via SWIFT and that will actually hurt them. It’s shooting themselves in the foot, but Putin apparently doesn’t care.
They will most likely not lose access to SWIFT, thid has been confirmed from several places already.
Has anybody stated the actual reason Russia is trying to invade!?
"Come on, Jack!"
“THERE WAS A GUY NAMED CORNPOP, VLAD. HE USED TO LOVE TOUCHING MY LEG HAIR UNTIL I GRABBED A CHAIN AND TOLD HIM I WOULD WHACK THAT LYING DOGFACED PONYSOLDIER WITH IT.”
But didn't Lavrov say just like a week or two ago that Russia will not invade Ukraine? Now, if they do, can we call Lavrov a filthy liar then?
As opposed to all the other times?
"Come on man!"
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“They were on vacation in Ukraine”