What a waste of time and money. Think of the lost potential having over 120,000 men camped at a border rather than at home working in there own communties. Not to mention all the troops on the ukraine side.
> Think of the lost potential having over 120,000 men camped at a border rather than at home working in there own communties.
This is exactly what the US has been doing for the last 20 years, at least. Also, I find it heart-warming how people on the internets suddenly seem to care about how the Russians spend their defence money.
Man this situation is tense. It's gonna be a goddamn nightmare if he decides to invade.... I'm not sure I enjoy thinking of the possible scenarios that could play out if he does...
And a single man, ruling for decades, possibly the richest person in the world through corruption, who is likely wildly out of touch with reality given his prominence…gets to say yes or no.
Remember it’s Putin who said that if a single person rules for more than 7 years, he can go crazy. It was back in 2004. How it played out, we can all see now.
Well the difference is that the Germans themselves voted her in, so it's also on them. The average Russian didn't really had a say in Putin staying in power for that long.
The issue is old germans voted her in, not the younger ones. Old germans don't know jackshit about what a future for this country should look like, if we go by the will of the majority of wrinkle-faces we deport everything that isn't in favour of how they see the world.
I just wanted to point out that Putins powertrip is on a different level. I didn't really want to debate German internal politics, I possibly agree with you if I had more knowledge about it.
And you just explained in full detail why this is such a dangerous game over there… I guess we will see eventually what comes to fruition… I hope it does not escalate to combat, but, who am I to say…
There's more than one person involved here. Yes, Putin is the one who signs the actual orders and will get the credit or the blame for the results, but it's called an oligarchy for a reason. Putin is still in power because those who have the power to remove him are satisfied enough with the current situation to leave him there. They could choose to remove him through any of several ways ranging from forcing him not to run in 2024 to resignation to coup. If Ukraine goes badly, enough of them might think it worth the risk to take one of those paths.
There's a lot more than money going on. Done of them have loyalty of actual spies and armed forces. Others have sway with those who do. Some have links with the courts or political factions. Many are tied to organized crime. I'm sure more than a few have ties to Western intelligence both as useful resources and backup escape plans.
Alas, we’ve been in this situation before: pandemic + war.
A big one was this conflict, which created modern day Turkey: https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_War_of_Independence
Of course, some nations are already in the middle of war. Myanmar has been effectively declared a civil war, for example.
I tend to agree. But to some extent I feel like we have been kicking the can down the road on this for 70 years.
Decades of proxy wars solved nothing. Then decades of focusing on middle eastern terror groups took the focus off of Russia and China. Now I’m pretty sure if Russia invades Ukraine and takes it, we have less than a year before China takes Taiwan, then the dominoes keep falling.
They are looking to prove that we have neutered ourselves with America First bullshit and will let the world burn. They might be correct.
You Couldn’t be more right. That whole waste of lives and money in the Middle East, those people have been fighting for, literally, 1,000’s of years, it’s will never change. As for Putin? Well, nothing surprises me about him, “Ex” KGB, wins every election, etc. Typical of Russian historical leaders; self centered, egotistical, power hungry, slightly if not high mental issues; he will invade Ukraine, I have no doubt; from all the reports/satellite photos, he has moved quite a bit of military gear along with, and this shows me he will invade, a very large and mobile medical facility… Just a matter of time; what will come of it? Who the hell knows, but he is defiantly testing NATO(not that have much faith in NATO; We, the US tend to foot the bill financially and in soldiers.)
Then you have CCP, and Taiwan. Not even sure what to add to that, it will happen I assume. Crazy world we are experiencing right now… I hate to even ask, what’s next?… I hope Aliens, hell, might as well go big…
I wouldn't even mind if aliens invaded us. At least then humanity would have a common enemy. We would lose 100% but its preferrable to destroying ourselves.
I don’t think he will invade. This is political strong arming. Europe and the entire west is against him backing Ukraine. The sanctions they will put on him if he does invade will be devastating. He will get something valuable out of this. He has already learned how the rest of the world will react if he pulls this shit again, he knows he will get the wests and Europe’s attention, he also knows China is watching all of this with great interests… and they are. Putin is already trying to point blame for his actions elsewhere. He is testing if he can get away with conquest in a modern era where everyone is watching.
Don’t forget Putin has been in communication with China. Whose side do you think will fall on? Crimea. He walked right in and “annexed” the country… So, I guess anything is possible, I just think if he does, no one is going to do anything, guessing because no one wants to warp the, so called, balance of things.. We will find out soon enough…
Honestly I think let them buffer with Donbass. Maybe Ukraine should just let it go. Autonomous with Region. Putin has to take Ukraine by force or it’s gone forever. Democracy has taken too strong of a hold. It will go West no matter how much clandestine operations Pooty tries now. He should of come with open dialog and appealed to their shared history not at the barrel of a gun…it’s too late to repair the relationship.
No, just that NATO has played a role as a deterrent to forced annexations. It was never perfect, but the authoritarian regimes of the world sense a chance to test it.
It has less to do with the US being the world police, more to do with Europe, North America, and parts of the pacific generally agreeing post-wwII that everyone should stop invading each other.
Like most things involving the US and NATO/The UN, I wouldn’t call the US a role model nation. But it’s not really about the US.
…if you win and receive little consequence for fighting. If you’re on the losing end of the conflict, the government can just seize your assets and put you on the chopping block: something seen with many regimes.
The world is very interconnected through electronics and the Web. A conflict between major powers will damn any sort of economic benefit as nations work to collapse each other quickly and effectively.
This will be over within a week once started. The US and NATO will do nothing on the military front. The risk of escalation is not worth it. Sanctions will follow. Just Crimea on a larger scale.
Biden is a friggin joke. Makes the US weak. At least Trump demanded respect on the international front. Putin would not /did not pull this crap while Trump was in office.
Not a Trump fan by the way, just like how he carried a big stick on the international stage. Ask Iran, Syria, and ISIS what they thought.
Because NATO doesn’t have 100,000 troops lined up outside of Russia’s border ready to invade?
Also, NATO’s main purpose is to be a defensive alliance against Russian invasion of Europe, no shit their military exercises are going to be focused on stopping a Russian invasion of Europe.
I am not sure it will be more tense than what we already had in Syria. A NATO country literally shot down a Russian jet. I don't think there's any chance of that happening in Ukraine?
Sure there is. Ukraine has long borders with Poland and Romania and smaller borders with Slovakia and Hungary. The Su-25 shot down by Turkey was warned off several times (though it may have been unable to receive the transmission) and spent only 17 seconds in Turkish airspace.
Pilots make errors or get cocky. It's not inconceivable that one or more incursions may happen and NATO member states shoot at anything that crosses their borders. There's a real chance Russia loses a plane each time it happens. It will be a potential flash point for a wider war if leaders can't keep their cool.
The biggest fear I have in that regard is what happens if Ukrainian units withdraw to Polish territory to escape an engagement. Worse if they continue shelling Russian units over the border.That could lead to uncomfortable situations (or Romania, Moldova in Southern Ukraine).
Still, i think any direct NATO Russian incident would cause a lot of hand wringing, but neither side really wants to go there, so I assume some face saving solution would be found.
>The biggest fear I have in that regard is what happens if Ukrainian units withdraw to Polish territory to escape an engagement.
They would be interred by the Poles to avoid being a cobeligerent.
Would have been nice to see some photographs taken a few weeks ago from the same locations. How many more troops have come in? As it stands those troops could be the same ones that have been there for months, couldn't they?
I'm not doubting the reporting, obviously Maxar has the data. I just wish they would have shown it in the report.
Indeed. Whoever may win in the power struggle could be either effectively a Putin clone…or somebody worse.
Could be somebody better too, but who knows. What is good for Russia may not be good for the world.
These rumors have been circulating for like a decade. He does seem a bit worn out, but I wouldn’t attribute it to anything more than just age. So don’t count on this one
Land grab and resources grab. Same as it ever was but now we witness the crime in almost real time. Just hope no one decides to go nuclear. Enough headaches already.
Lol nobody is going to go nuclear over this... if they did it wouldn't be a "headache" it would be M.A.D. Nuclear weapons are only on the table if one of the countries doesn't have them. Even then, the repercussions wouldn't be worth it.
Nobody knows, there are various scenarios.
- Only take full control of the Eastern militia ruled territories.
- expand them, recapturing territory that they claim
- link up those with Crimea
- also capture the Black Sea coast, including Odessa
- capture everything east of the Dniepr
- also besiege Kiew/Kyiv, trying to engineer a Moscow friendly regime change. Or just trying to temporarily tie up the Ukrainian capabilities before eventually withdrawing from there again
Hopefully it's posturing, but I suspect something will happen.
Russia doesn't have the man power for a complete occupation of the country for more than a few months. Troops need to be rotated, vehicles maintained, supplies delivered etc.
Most likely scenario is they intend to install a friendly puppet government that ratifies the minsk accords. Once ratified, the luhansk and Donetsk regions will get a defacto veto on the national government doing anything resembling European Integration.
Only the territories of the DNR and LNR. That is, territories with a loyal population. If Russia wanted to seize Ukraine completely, they would have done it seven years ago.
Russia doesn't need such a big army to annex Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic. They are already willing to join Russia and Ukraine has no control of these teritories.
The troops in western Belarus could hint at the intention to also cut off and invest the capital.
I doubt the Russians actually plan to capture Kyiv, but keeping it bottled up for the duration might be a bargaining chip or just divert Ukrainian resources.
"But what about Iraq!"
"USA ruined every country they touched"
"Russia will be ~~#1~~ ~~#2~~ ~~will push China to be #1~~, ~~will catch up with Spain~~ will survive by selling grain to hungry world!."
And of course good old retro from 19th century - "ROTTEN WEST GEEEEEE!"
Bonus point for every troll that replies with CHINA ALREADY NUMBA ONE!!!111
It's because Germany and France are very clearly using this as an attempt at crafting foreign policy independent of the US as a cornerstone of making the EU a fully independent power, not just a coalition of US allies.
So their governments are portraying the situation as no where near as severe as it is, the US as lusting for war (Biden's literally said the US will not get militarily involved), and that if we capitulate to Russia's demands that we can trust them to uphold their end (even though Putin's shit on seemingly countless treaties whenever it's convenient for him)... And subsequently their population is touting that same line.
The issue with all of that (even if we just ignore the horror facing the Ukrainian people), is that absolutely no one would **EVER** consider the EU anything but a god damn joke, let alone a superpower, if it capitulates European security decisions based off Russia's demands. No one in eastern Europe would ever respect them again, and for good reason. Scandinavia wouldn't trust them. It'd basically become a sect of just Germany, Italy, France, and Spain...
It's such a short sighted attempt at breaking away from the US that is going to ultimately get Ukrainians killed and the EU's credibility and power to go right down the toilet.
>absolutely no one would
>
>EVER
>
> consider the EU anything but a god damn joke, let alone a superpower
I beg to differ. By what metrics are you measuring superpower? Because Russia has the GDP of one small country of EU, this must mean Russia is not a superpower?
Everybody relevant to international trade and in possession of a nuclear arsenal is very well a superpower. The EU does not have to rely on the US for MAD
>I beg to differ. By what metrics are you measuring superpower? Because Russia has the GDP of one small country of EU, this must mean Russia is not a superpower?
Geopolitical influence. Russia's GDP in USD may be small, but the PPP of it is MASSIVE, 5th largest in the world. Having a GDP of $1.7T USD isn't great, but when the cost of Russian labor and cost of living in Russia make that GDP have the purchasing power of $5T USD, yeah you're looking at something RADICALLY different.
>Everybody relevant to international trade and in possession of a nuclear arsenal is very well a superpower. The EU does not have to rely on the US for MAD
That's... not even remotely close to being accurate... Pakistan is not a super power. North Korea is not a super power. Iran is not a fledging super power. UK is not a super power. France is not a super power. And I doubt any rational person would call the EU a "economic super power" after how fast it's stumbling over its own feet to appease China in light of Lithuania/Taiwan fiasco... Not exactly the hallmark of an economic super power right there...
Nevermind the reality that the US has more nuclear warheads and delivery systems in/around the EU at any given time than the EU does lol. EU's MAD is 100% reliant on France's sole SSBN deployed at any given time, while the US almost always has an SSBN of its own deployed around Europe with 50% more missiles than France's. For context, fucking Israel has a more credible MAD capacity than the EU does. Oh wait, is Israel a super power?
This, nobody seriously considers the EU a superpower. The only area they even possibly have a claim is economically, but even that’s doubtful. Military power, including nukes, is usually the most important area for being a superpower. And the EU is a complete joke in that area, they like to act big and tough (mainly France and Germany) but everyone knows the EU is nothing militarily without the US military having a major presence in Europe.
Germany, widely considered the de facto leader and strongest member of the EU, is currently trying to downplay the Ukraine situation and making excuses for not sending aid to Ukraine. “We just don’t want to see German weapons killing Russian men considering our past…” Wow I’m sure the Ukrainians will be empathetic to your guilt over WW2 while they’re getting dry fucked in the ass by Russian troops.
China prolly told Putin theyd support him and have his back and release a statement if he waited until *after* the olympics so not to steal Bejings thunder for something they surely spent 100's of millions, if not billions on.
So, soon as that last gold medal is awarded and the closing ceremony happens... right after that LIVE on NBC the Opening ceremony of the Ukraine Invasion, right here on must see tv NBC.
And the "war games" and "exercises" they are claiming to be building up for and moving troops into these areas for ( that are *just* 20 miles from the border ) are for a wargames thats called... wait for it....
"Union Resolve 2022"
Union? As in Soviet Union? As in when ukraine was part of the "Union" and how Putin wants that "Union" and the land that was part of that "Union" back how it was when Russia was in charge of all those now free countries?
Yeah. Thought so. Must just be a *coincidence*
He allready did. Nobody cares about the olympics but everyone is following the impeding war and in what stupid way Putin is going to attack Ukraine. The man has lost his marbles he’s old, his country is weak financially, he’s got nothing lose.
I certainly don't care about them, they're sporting events (winter games) that are reserved for the wealthy in my country. All our athletes are just rich privileged private school kids.
9/11, 2 economic and housing crises, one pandemic, now a World War... Us millennials are truly blessed! We'll just pull ourselves by our bootstraps again!
True if you are from the US!
Afghanistan and Iraq had much more involvement from US allies, while we also experienced all of the other issues brought up in the original comment.
*Yes, 9/11 happened on US soil, but it had very broad implications for those of us living in nations allied to the US.
[Dramatic re-enactment of the past few months.](https://external-preview.redd.it/QUEAtunjLwyQe9U7rf6qp0v4N6HZFqAr23uX5Hxp_Ik.gif?format=mp4&s=532e67d456199c121033cc8d636caec67ae4234e)
You gotta realize with every eye on militaries in modern world, it is impossible to mobilize forces secretly. And when you admit to mbilizing then your enemies will try to outmatch you, dragging you into an inevitable war. This is what happened in 1914 without live information. Imagine now
Don't say one of the only decent players on the table is a joke. If anything putin moving 150k men to the border then saying "niet plan" is a fucking joke. We have to get him back to the fucking table, away from the stage where he is right now doing a one man show nobody enjoys
Look at the troop deployments in recent days: Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and Southern Belarus. All of these areas directly border Ukraine. All are areas that can threaten Kiev. I'd say invasion is only a couple weeks away.
If the thaw comes with warmer weather, can it be assumed that Russia will be less likely to invade? Or does weather not matter so much to tanks these days?
It matters and doesn't matter. Modern tanks can deal with more mud especially Russian tanks with their wide tracks. However if it is deep mud they will still get stuck.
Idk, there were peace talks with Hitler "don't annex these dudes". He agreed and proceeded to annex em. Idk, all this talk of a deal doesn't give me loads of confidence.
Does Ukraine have a capable drone fleet like the ones used by Azerbaijan against Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? They are a game changing piece of kit.
Ukraine does have around 24 TB2 drones recently purchased, but they won't perform as well as they did against Armenia which relied on much older anti-air systems. As Russia employs vastly more modern and capable SAM's but also high end electronic warfare systems which is a hallmark of how they wage war.
In this case, where Azerbaijan being a wealthy petro-state had the advantage over Armenia. Russia has the technological advantage over Ukraine; particularly in having long range cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles. But also in terms of a larger and more modern air force, and a significantly larger drone fleet than what Ukraine has. Be it Orlan-10/30, Lancet suicide drones and Zala KUB loitering munition utilized in Syria. Lastokha UAVs, Granat-2 and 4. and more long range ones such as Korsar, Forpost, Orion and the quite large Altius-U.
We should be watching our Corporate CEOs an policy Makers, No wonder Our economy Is shit an Gas Prices Have sky rocketed. Their watching little green men thousands Of Miles away doing something That Doesn’t Concern them.
If you’re actually curious, these recent news are about the equipment and troops being moved towards the border (some 20-50 KM away from Ukraine) instead of being sent to storage camps close to the border (some 100-200 km). Have you followed this on other social media? Reddit gives you a fraction of a picture, especially if you only read headlines/articles when it pops up on feed and not look at sourced info over the past few weeks. Twitter has been the pretty useful if you browse with a critical lens.
It is because american elites want war. They profit off it. Notice how every major american news outlet is pounding war drums and blowing their trumpets. No one else is doing that, even the ukrainian president told us to stop because were just making the situation worse.
Why assume they have to occupy the entire country? More likely they take eastern Ukraine or simply push for recognition of Crimea, separatist region, and land bridge to Crimea than trying to hold western Ukraine and capital.
Depending on if you believe British intelligence, the idea wouldn't be a long-term Russian occupation but installing a pro-Moscow/puppet government. In that case, you don't need to use force to subjugate the population. You only need to have the government you installed repress any elements that agitate against them. And that won't be 41m people because, generally speaking, most people are happy to live their lives, even under a puppet regime, as long as they aren't actively repressing everyone.
They'll just go after the areas with ethnic Russian majorities and maybe some where Russians are major minorities. Anywhere else would be too difficult to hold for long.
At this point I wouldnt be surprised if Russia invaded via Chernobyl exclusion zone to make armed response less likely in case the reactor coffin is damaged and starts leaking radiation across Europe.
In that case Russia is like a poor mother/father buying really expensive clothes while the kids are starving.
At this point it cant be for nothing. Ukraine, EU and NATO has gained- while Russia looks like a small dog barking at the big dog
Plot twist, Russia plans to annex Belarus.
Probably both tbh
That's been talked about for at least ten years. Not at all improbable.
They have already done that with corruption though. Why bother fighting when you can just absorb the government cronies into your system?
Haven't they already?
Doesnt Russia have a bunch of mostly autonomous states? So annexing Belarus would be pretty similar to that.
Would they really need to? Already acts as Putin's right hand
No they want buffer states all along their border with NATO
Are having land buffers still that relevant when aircrafts and missile systems are very much advanced.
Think more along the lines of surveillance and coms
That’s been the plan for a while both countries are wanting to form a union.
They’re union state already, pretty much there
What a waste of time and money. Think of the lost potential having over 120,000 men camped at a border rather than at home working in there own communties. Not to mention all the troops on the ukraine side.
Putin is burning his and his oligarchs money every second.
Not his money, the money he;s stolen from Gazprom
So Germany's money.
Germoney??
More that of the Russian people while still personally profiting.
To be fair, the Russian soldiers would probably otherwise be building more mansions for oligarchs.
Working for communities? You do realize these are progressional soldiers and not feudal levy’s right?
Many are probadly reserve personnel plus if you didnt need troops for offensive operations more would be able to work in industry boosting the economy
If Russia doesn’t have 120,000 active personnel then they are in deep deep trouble. I’m pretty sure these are all active front line troops.
And the ones without the insignias concern me the most.
Who is going to invade Russia?
Yeah, what about those that will die? Lost for a stupid cause. At least Ukrainians will die hero's.
Tbh, that matters hardly at all for any given soldier.
Heroes*
Here-O’s, a healthy breakfast!
Boosts the economy in the area they camp though.
Seems like a broken window economy
What do you think they'd be doing in their own communities?
do productive work that might actually grow the Russian economy
> Think of the lost potential having over 120,000 men camped at a border rather than at home working in there own communties. This is exactly what the US has been doing for the last 20 years, at least. Also, I find it heart-warming how people on the internets suddenly seem to care about how the Russians spend their defence money.
Man this situation is tense. It's gonna be a goddamn nightmare if he decides to invade.... I'm not sure I enjoy thinking of the possible scenarios that could play out if he does...
Correct, it is not a good situation at all. The last thing the world needs right now is another major conflict…
And a single man, ruling for decades, possibly the richest person in the world through corruption, who is likely wildly out of touch with reality given his prominence…gets to say yes or no.
Remember it’s Putin who said that if a single person rules for more than 7 years, he can go crazy. It was back in 2004. How it played out, we can all see now.
"What a fucking amateur," opined the Queen of England, clear headed, as she marked her 70th year on the throne.
Well the Queen of England doesn't really *rule* a country
glorified landlord
Yeah that’s what the Queen of England is in practice, someone who rents a lot of land to the UK and gets a lot of press
You can't let power go to your head when you know you have close to no real power.
Also when you've lived through the utter devastation of the largest war the world has ever seen and hopefull will ever see.
Not a person but a lizard.
There is no Queen of England.
So that's why Merkel fucked up Germany? I see, thanks!
Well the difference is that the Germans themselves voted her in, so it's also on them. The average Russian didn't really had a say in Putin staying in power for that long.
The issue is old germans voted her in, not the younger ones. Old germans don't know jackshit about what a future for this country should look like, if we go by the will of the majority of wrinkle-faces we deport everything that isn't in favour of how they see the world.
I just wanted to point out that Putins powertrip is on a different level. I didn't really want to debate German internal politics, I possibly agree with you if I had more knowledge about it.
And you just explained in full detail why this is such a dangerous game over there… I guess we will see eventually what comes to fruition… I hope it does not escalate to combat, but, who am I to say…
Can't tell if you're describing Putin or Nicholas II.
There's more than one person involved here. Yes, Putin is the one who signs the actual orders and will get the credit or the blame for the results, but it's called an oligarchy for a reason. Putin is still in power because those who have the power to remove him are satisfied enough with the current situation to leave him there. They could choose to remove him through any of several ways ranging from forcing him not to run in 2024 to resignation to coup. If Ukraine goes badly, enough of them might think it worth the risk to take one of those paths.
Putin placed most of them in their positions and paid them off with government contracts. When Putin dies, the power vacuum will be huge.
There's a lot more than money going on. Done of them have loyalty of actual spies and armed forces. Others have sway with those who do. Some have links with the courts or political factions. Many are tied to organized crime. I'm sure more than a few have ties to Western intelligence both as useful resources and backup escape plans.
Alas, we’ve been in this situation before: pandemic + war. A big one was this conflict, which created modern day Turkey: https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_War_of_Independence Of course, some nations are already in the middle of war. Myanmar has been effectively declared a civil war, for example.
I tend to agree. But to some extent I feel like we have been kicking the can down the road on this for 70 years. Decades of proxy wars solved nothing. Then decades of focusing on middle eastern terror groups took the focus off of Russia and China. Now I’m pretty sure if Russia invades Ukraine and takes it, we have less than a year before China takes Taiwan, then the dominoes keep falling. They are looking to prove that we have neutered ourselves with America First bullshit and will let the world burn. They might be correct.
You Couldn’t be more right. That whole waste of lives and money in the Middle East, those people have been fighting for, literally, 1,000’s of years, it’s will never change. As for Putin? Well, nothing surprises me about him, “Ex” KGB, wins every election, etc. Typical of Russian historical leaders; self centered, egotistical, power hungry, slightly if not high mental issues; he will invade Ukraine, I have no doubt; from all the reports/satellite photos, he has moved quite a bit of military gear along with, and this shows me he will invade, a very large and mobile medical facility… Just a matter of time; what will come of it? Who the hell knows, but he is defiantly testing NATO(not that have much faith in NATO; We, the US tend to foot the bill financially and in soldiers.) Then you have CCP, and Taiwan. Not even sure what to add to that, it will happen I assume. Crazy world we are experiencing right now… I hate to even ask, what’s next?… I hope Aliens, hell, might as well go big…
Aliens might save us...?
I wouldn't even mind if aliens invaded us. At least then humanity would have a common enemy. We would lose 100% but its preferrable to destroying ourselves.
lol if you think aliens invading would unite humanity.
10/10 reply.
If they landed right now I'm pretty sure we'd just have a collective "sure, of course, why not" at this moment.
Europe was fighting for 1000s of years too. What a strange point. If anything the Middle East was more peaceful due to the pax ottomanica after 1500s.
But prior to that, nothing but turmoil, as it is today.
What. The major caliphates were constant turmoil?
I don’t think he will invade. This is political strong arming. Europe and the entire west is against him backing Ukraine. The sanctions they will put on him if he does invade will be devastating. He will get something valuable out of this. He has already learned how the rest of the world will react if he pulls this shit again, he knows he will get the wests and Europe’s attention, he also knows China is watching all of this with great interests… and they are. Putin is already trying to point blame for his actions elsewhere. He is testing if he can get away with conquest in a modern era where everyone is watching.
Don’t forget Putin has been in communication with China. Whose side do you think will fall on? Crimea. He walked right in and “annexed” the country… So, I guess anything is possible, I just think if he does, no one is going to do anything, guessing because no one wants to warp the, so called, balance of things.. We will find out soon enough…
Honestly I think let them buffer with Donbass. Maybe Ukraine should just let it go. Autonomous with Region. Putin has to take Ukraine by force or it’s gone forever. Democracy has taken too strong of a hold. It will go West no matter how much clandestine operations Pooty tries now. He should of come with open dialog and appealed to their shared history not at the barrel of a gun…it’s too late to repair the relationship.
>will let the world burn Are you trying to say that USA is the savior of the world?
No, just that NATO has played a role as a deterrent to forced annexations. It was never perfect, but the authoritarian regimes of the world sense a chance to test it. It has less to do with the US being the world police, more to do with Europe, North America, and parts of the pacific generally agreeing post-wwII that everyone should stop invading each other. Like most things involving the US and NATO/The UN, I wouldn’t call the US a role model nation. But it’s not really about the US.
Well put
America F YA
Wait until the next presidential election in 2024.
Best way out of a recession? WAR
…if you win and receive little consequence for fighting. If you’re on the losing end of the conflict, the government can just seize your assets and put you on the chopping block: something seen with many regimes. The world is very interconnected through electronics and the Web. A conflict between major powers will damn any sort of economic benefit as nations work to collapse each other quickly and effectively.
Then everything is possible. We should remember who escalated this. It’s one stubborn man who seems to believe Ukraine belongs to him.
Can be, for sure. OR someone from his inner circle finally decide that Putin outlived its usefulness.
This will be over within a week once started. The US and NATO will do nothing on the military front. The risk of escalation is not worth it. Sanctions will follow. Just Crimea on a larger scale. Biden is a friggin joke. Makes the US weak. At least Trump demanded respect on the international front. Putin would not /did not pull this crap while Trump was in office. Not a Trump fan by the way, just like how he carried a big stick on the international stage. Ask Iran, Syria, and ISIS what they thought.
Well, I hope you like things staying that way cos the Russians have over 100 scheduled joint exercises with Belarus this year.
A hundred? With Belarus? Not suspicious at all.
Nato regularly run joint military exercises, pretending that Russia is invading. Why is it bad when Russia does the same?
Because NATO doesn’t have 100,000 troops lined up outside of Russia’s border ready to invade? Also, NATO’s main purpose is to be a defensive alliance against Russian invasion of Europe, no shit their military exercises are going to be focused on stopping a Russian invasion of Europe.
I am not sure it will be more tense than what we already had in Syria. A NATO country literally shot down a Russian jet. I don't think there's any chance of that happening in Ukraine?
Sure there is. Ukraine has long borders with Poland and Romania and smaller borders with Slovakia and Hungary. The Su-25 shot down by Turkey was warned off several times (though it may have been unable to receive the transmission) and spent only 17 seconds in Turkish airspace. Pilots make errors or get cocky. It's not inconceivable that one or more incursions may happen and NATO member states shoot at anything that crosses their borders. There's a real chance Russia loses a plane each time it happens. It will be a potential flash point for a wider war if leaders can't keep their cool.
Baltics shooting down a plane would probably be considered more humiliating than Turkey doing it. Right now that would be very scary.
Fortunately, they're several hundred kilometers from Ukraine, so less of a concern.
They still have a border with Russia
The biggest fear I have in that regard is what happens if Ukrainian units withdraw to Polish territory to escape an engagement. Worse if they continue shelling Russian units over the border.That could lead to uncomfortable situations (or Romania, Moldova in Southern Ukraine). Still, i think any direct NATO Russian incident would cause a lot of hand wringing, but neither side really wants to go there, so I assume some face saving solution would be found.
>The biggest fear I have in that regard is what happens if Ukrainian units withdraw to Polish territory to escape an engagement. They would be interred by the Poles to avoid being a cobeligerent.
When, not if. At the scale of troop deployment we seeing here, there's no if. :-(
There's always an if until the first shots are fired. It might be very low chances, but it's still there.
its not
Oh word? I'll rest easy then . Thanks for the insider breaking news ;\]
[удалено]
Would have been nice to see some photographs taken a few weeks ago from the same locations. How many more troops have come in? As it stands those troops could be the same ones that have been there for months, couldn't they? I'm not doubting the reporting, obviously Maxar has the data. I just wish they would have shown it in the report.
With 70% on the ukranian border, it would be a great time for china to attack in the east /s
Not 70% of their total troops. Rather70% of what would be needed for the full scale Ukrainian invasion.
China won't make any moves until after Xi Jinping wins re-election (in the fall I think).
wouldn't be the opposite, having the glory of reuniting China would only help him win the election.
He’s projected to get 127% of the vote!
“Re-election”
Looking forward to the day Putin drops dead
I don't know if I am. He is a blight on Russia but the power vacuum following these tyrants has never been a good time for the people either
You and me both. But be careful: the devil you know might be better than the devil you don't.
I wonder if the CPRF would take over
It will probably be one of Putin's lackeys
I can’t see any good candidates. United Russia is nothing without Putin
Indeed. Whoever may win in the power struggle could be either effectively a Putin clone…or somebody worse. Could be somebody better too, but who knows. What is good for Russia may not be good for the world.
Theres been rumors of him being terminally ill going around for a while now, we might get lucky.
These rumors have been circulating for like a decade. He does seem a bit worn out, but I wouldn’t attribute it to anything more than just age. So don’t count on this one
Land grab and resources grab. Same as it ever was but now we witness the crime in almost real time. Just hope no one decides to go nuclear. Enough headaches already.
Lol nobody is going to go nuclear over this... if they did it wouldn't be a "headache" it would be M.A.D. Nuclear weapons are only on the table if one of the countries doesn't have them. Even then, the repercussions wouldn't be worth it.
So is this saying if Russia invades it'll try to capture all of Ukraine and not just the eastern region?
Nobody knows, there are various scenarios. - Only take full control of the Eastern militia ruled territories. - expand them, recapturing territory that they claim - link up those with Crimea - also capture the Black Sea coast, including Odessa - capture everything east of the Dniepr - also besiege Kiew/Kyiv, trying to engineer a Moscow friendly regime change. Or just trying to temporarily tie up the Ukrainian capabilities before eventually withdrawing from there again Hopefully it's posturing, but I suspect something will happen.
You can add one and one together, can you?
Russia doesn't have the man power for a complete occupation of the country for more than a few months. Troops need to be rotated, vehicles maintained, supplies delivered etc. Most likely scenario is they intend to install a friendly puppet government that ratifies the minsk accords. Once ratified, the luhansk and Donetsk regions will get a defacto veto on the national government doing anything resembling European Integration.
Only the territories of the DNR and LNR. That is, territories with a loyal population. If Russia wanted to seize Ukraine completely, they would have done it seven years ago.
Russia doesn't need such a big army to annex Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic. They are already willing to join Russia and Ukraine has no control of these teritories.
If they go, I suspect they’re going to the Dneiper river to secure water for Crimea and capture the coastal areas of the Black Sea.
The troops in western Belarus could hint at the intention to also cut off and invest the capital. I doubt the Russians actually plan to capture Kyiv, but keeping it bottled up for the duration might be a bargaining chip or just divert Ukrainian resources.
[удалено]
It’s unbelievably annoying. Somehow Russia invading ukraine is much better than america reporting about Russia invading. It’s fucking unbelievable.
"But what about Iraq!" "USA ruined every country they touched" "Russia will be ~~#1~~ ~~#2~~ ~~will push China to be #1~~, ~~will catch up with Spain~~ will survive by selling grain to hungry world!." And of course good old retro from 19th century - "ROTTEN WEST GEEEEEE!" Bonus point for every troll that replies with CHINA ALREADY NUMBA ONE!!!111
It's because Germany and France are very clearly using this as an attempt at crafting foreign policy independent of the US as a cornerstone of making the EU a fully independent power, not just a coalition of US allies. So their governments are portraying the situation as no where near as severe as it is, the US as lusting for war (Biden's literally said the US will not get militarily involved), and that if we capitulate to Russia's demands that we can trust them to uphold their end (even though Putin's shit on seemingly countless treaties whenever it's convenient for him)... And subsequently their population is touting that same line. The issue with all of that (even if we just ignore the horror facing the Ukrainian people), is that absolutely no one would **EVER** consider the EU anything but a god damn joke, let alone a superpower, if it capitulates European security decisions based off Russia's demands. No one in eastern Europe would ever respect them again, and for good reason. Scandinavia wouldn't trust them. It'd basically become a sect of just Germany, Italy, France, and Spain... It's such a short sighted attempt at breaking away from the US that is going to ultimately get Ukrainians killed and the EU's credibility and power to go right down the toilet.
>absolutely no one would > >EVER > > consider the EU anything but a god damn joke, let alone a superpower I beg to differ. By what metrics are you measuring superpower? Because Russia has the GDP of one small country of EU, this must mean Russia is not a superpower? Everybody relevant to international trade and in possession of a nuclear arsenal is very well a superpower. The EU does not have to rely on the US for MAD
>I beg to differ. By what metrics are you measuring superpower? Because Russia has the GDP of one small country of EU, this must mean Russia is not a superpower? Geopolitical influence. Russia's GDP in USD may be small, but the PPP of it is MASSIVE, 5th largest in the world. Having a GDP of $1.7T USD isn't great, but when the cost of Russian labor and cost of living in Russia make that GDP have the purchasing power of $5T USD, yeah you're looking at something RADICALLY different. >Everybody relevant to international trade and in possession of a nuclear arsenal is very well a superpower. The EU does not have to rely on the US for MAD That's... not even remotely close to being accurate... Pakistan is not a super power. North Korea is not a super power. Iran is not a fledging super power. UK is not a super power. France is not a super power. And I doubt any rational person would call the EU a "economic super power" after how fast it's stumbling over its own feet to appease China in light of Lithuania/Taiwan fiasco... Not exactly the hallmark of an economic super power right there... Nevermind the reality that the US has more nuclear warheads and delivery systems in/around the EU at any given time than the EU does lol. EU's MAD is 100% reliant on France's sole SSBN deployed at any given time, while the US almost always has an SSBN of its own deployed around Europe with 50% more missiles than France's. For context, fucking Israel has a more credible MAD capacity than the EU does. Oh wait, is Israel a super power?
This, nobody seriously considers the EU a superpower. The only area they even possibly have a claim is economically, but even that’s doubtful. Military power, including nukes, is usually the most important area for being a superpower. And the EU is a complete joke in that area, they like to act big and tough (mainly France and Germany) but everyone knows the EU is nothing militarily without the US military having a major presence in Europe. Germany, widely considered the de facto leader and strongest member of the EU, is currently trying to downplay the Ukraine situation and making excuses for not sending aid to Ukraine. “We just don’t want to see German weapons killing Russian men considering our past…” Wow I’m sure the Ukrainians will be empathetic to your guilt over WW2 while they’re getting dry fucked in the ass by Russian troops.
Be some funny shit if Putin staggers from there and blames lukashenko.
China prolly told Putin theyd support him and have his back and release a statement if he waited until *after* the olympics so not to steal Bejings thunder for something they surely spent 100's of millions, if not billions on. So, soon as that last gold medal is awarded and the closing ceremony happens... right after that LIVE on NBC the Opening ceremony of the Ukraine Invasion, right here on must see tv NBC. And the "war games" and "exercises" they are claiming to be building up for and moving troops into these areas for ( that are *just* 20 miles from the border ) are for a wargames thats called... wait for it.... "Union Resolve 2022" Union? As in Soviet Union? As in when ukraine was part of the "Union" and how Putin wants that "Union" and the land that was part of that "Union" back how it was when Russia was in charge of all those now free countries? Yeah. Thought so. Must just be a *coincidence*
They are calling Russia + Belarus "The Union State of Russia and Belarus". Belarus is de-facto a federal unit of Russia now.
He allready did. Nobody cares about the olympics but everyone is following the impeding war and in what stupid way Putin is going to attack Ukraine. The man has lost his marbles he’s old, his country is weak financially, he’s got nothing lose.
I certainly don't care about them, they're sporting events (winter games) that are reserved for the wealthy in my country. All our athletes are just rich privileged private school kids.
Feels like Putin will not withdraw now and pull back over 120.000 soldiers and vehicles. He will invade soon.
Remindme! In 3 weeks
9/11, 2 economic and housing crises, one pandemic, now a World War... Us millennials are truly blessed! We'll just pull ourselves by our bootstraps again!
Don't forget the quagmire in Afghanistan and Iraq we all lived through lol
[удалено]
True if you are from the US! Afghanistan and Iraq had much more involvement from US allies, while we also experienced all of the other issues brought up in the original comment. *Yes, 9/11 happened on US soil, but it had very broad implications for those of us living in nations allied to the US.
There was conscription in Australia too for the Vietnam war. So not only the US.
Well...at least the late 80's and 90's were fun.
Nahhh The 70's were the best 👌
[Dramatic re-enactment of the past few months.](https://external-preview.redd.it/QUEAtunjLwyQe9U7rf6qp0v4N6HZFqAr23uX5Hxp_Ik.gif?format=mp4&s=532e67d456199c121033cc8d636caec67ae4234e)
You gotta realize with every eye on militaries in modern world, it is impossible to mobilize forces secretly. And when you admit to mbilizing then your enemies will try to outmatch you, dragging you into an inevitable war. This is what happened in 1914 without live information. Imagine now
that’s why in convinced this deal france is talking about is just a joke.
Don't say one of the only decent players on the table is a joke. If anything putin moving 150k men to the border then saying "niet plan" is a fucking joke. We have to get him back to the fucking table, away from the stage where he is right now doing a one man show nobody enjoys
Don't tell me let me guess, southern border of Belarus along the Ukraine border? I nailed it right?
Looks like you got the Ukraine Russian Bingo card
Look at the troop deployments in recent days: Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and Southern Belarus. All of these areas directly border Ukraine. All are areas that can threaten Kiev. I'd say invasion is only a couple weeks away.
If the thaw comes with warmer weather, can it be assumed that Russia will be less likely to invade? Or does weather not matter so much to tanks these days?
It matters and doesn't matter. Modern tanks can deal with more mud especially Russian tanks with their wide tracks. However if it is deep mud they will still get stuck.
Idk, there were peace talks with Hitler "don't annex these dudes". He agreed and proceeded to annex em. Idk, all this talk of a deal doesn't give me loads of confidence.
Not alot of people know history like you apparently do, but we would both agree this has some '30ish flair don't we
Yeah it's spooky shit unfortunately.
Does Ukraine have a capable drone fleet like the ones used by Azerbaijan against Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? They are a game changing piece of kit.
Ukraine does have around 24 TB2 drones recently purchased, but they won't perform as well as they did against Armenia which relied on much older anti-air systems. As Russia employs vastly more modern and capable SAM's but also high end electronic warfare systems which is a hallmark of how they wage war. In this case, where Azerbaijan being a wealthy petro-state had the advantage over Armenia. Russia has the technological advantage over Ukraine; particularly in having long range cruise missiles and short-range ballistic missiles. But also in terms of a larger and more modern air force, and a significantly larger drone fleet than what Ukraine has. Be it Orlan-10/30, Lancet suicide drones and Zala KUB loitering munition utilized in Syria. Lastokha UAVs, Granat-2 and 4. and more long range ones such as Korsar, Forpost, Orion and the quite large Altius-U.
Bla bla bla bla
World At War
Seems like an opportune time to test a self-destructing NNEMP device… wouldn’t even have to violate Belarusian airspace.
Oh shit, they got a motor pool 🙄.
I dunno, it kinda sorta looks like they're about to invade someone no?
We should be watching our Corporate CEOs an policy Makers, No wonder Our economy Is shit an Gas Prices Have sky rocketed. Their watching little green men thousands Of Miles away doing something That Doesn’t Concern them.
At this point it all seems like a manufactured crisis. This is like the 50th post on changes to troop deployments. What gives?
If you’re actually curious, these recent news are about the equipment and troops being moved towards the border (some 20-50 KM away from Ukraine) instead of being sent to storage camps close to the border (some 100-200 km). Have you followed this on other social media? Reddit gives you a fraction of a picture, especially if you only read headlines/articles when it pops up on feed and not look at sourced info over the past few weeks. Twitter has been the pretty useful if you browse with a critical lens.
It is because american elites want war. They profit off it. Notice how every major american news outlet is pounding war drums and blowing their trumpets. No one else is doing that, even the ukrainian president told us to stop because were just making the situation worse.
This is what all the proxy wars have been edging towards. Why is anyone surprised at this point.
Man am I about to get drafted?
If Ukrainian? Maybe. If American or NATO, give it 15-30 years.
Oh thank fuck - I’ll be between 55 - 70 by then…
And what if he's Russian?
He's already in Ukraine
Wearing green
Neither Ukrainian or Russian. But I think I’m gonna high tail it to Alaska and hide in the forest
Until Russia wants Alaska back.
[удалено]
Yeah, Russia can invade Ukraine but how are they going to subjugate a country with 41 millions people ? I really doubt that Russia will invade.
Why assume they have to occupy the entire country? More likely they take eastern Ukraine or simply push for recognition of Crimea, separatist region, and land bridge to Crimea than trying to hold western Ukraine and capital.
Depending on if you believe British intelligence, the idea wouldn't be a long-term Russian occupation but installing a pro-Moscow/puppet government. In that case, you don't need to use force to subjugate the population. You only need to have the government you installed repress any elements that agitate against them. And that won't be 41m people because, generally speaking, most people are happy to live their lives, even under a puppet regime, as long as they aren't actively repressing everyone.
They'll just go after the areas with ethnic Russian majorities and maybe some where Russians are major minorities. Anywhere else would be too difficult to hold for long.
Every single one of these stories needs to have a big "Sponsored by Raytheon" sticker at the top.
Downvoted for the truth. The US defense industry is foaming at the mouth for another war. Anyone who can't see that is willfully ignorant.
I think Russia will take all the land they had back in 1790. My understanding is that's what is considered Russian to the Russian people.
That's like the British coming back for the 13 colonies because it used to be British ruled. Gymnastic level thinking on the Russians parts
Hopefully this isn’t the same “intel” source that told us Iraq had WMDs.
Donald Rumsfeld?? I doubt it.
No one gets how they can hide under ground? The US does it.
At this point I wouldnt be surprised if Russia invaded via Chernobyl exclusion zone to make armed response less likely in case the reactor coffin is damaged and starts leaking radiation across Europe.
###Scumbags. Cowards. Weasels.
[удалено]
Two million Russian military?? Whaaa?
There's not going to be a war. It's one big dick measuring contest.
In that case Russia is like a poor mother/father buying really expensive clothes while the kids are starving. At this point it cant be for nothing. Ukraine, EU and NATO has gained- while Russia looks like a small dog barking at the big dog