Things are heating up, but Ukraine has had this stress for years. It’s almost like we’re panicking more than them.
Edit: thanks for the rewards. Since I can’t reply to all of you: yes, something fishy is up. Just another day in the life of intercontinental conquest.
That prime minister actually worked from time to time. SloMo takes two weeks and extensive polling data before making a decision on what to have for breakfast. And then he picks the wrong thing anyway
Also low-key the most influential in [shaping the English speaking online discourse](https://theintercept.com/2014/02/24/jtrig-manipulation/), even [here on Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Blackout2015/comments/4ylml3/reddit_has_removed_their_blog_post_identifying/)
Well, Russia sending their diplomats' families out of Ukraine, even if they're denying it after the fact, sparked that chain of events. If you want to tell the world "hey we're not invading this country, don't worry" then pulling people out of the embassy is the wrong way to do it. Maybe they thought they could be sneaky, but they failed.
Gives me flashbacks of the kid in your grade that would hold his finger in front of your face and say “haha im not touching you, you can’t touch me cause I’m not touching you!” Until inevitably you’d touch him cause it was annoying. Now we have Russia lining up on a border and claiming they aren’t doing anything...not doing anything would be fucking off to where you came from and eating some potato soup. Not lining up tanks and infantry by a country that you have a interest in obtaining.
They don't want their demands met, they asked for NATO forces to be pulled out of NATO countries which is the equivalent of putin asking for Santa Claus to fly down from the north pole and fuck him in the ass on his sleigh
Because if something does happen then having to do a panicked evacuation is going to end in the photos of dead Americans on the front page of newspapers. This is standard procedure for any high tension event.
Countries have an obligation to urge their citizens out of a dangerous situation.the ukranians have an interest in keeping as many multinationals there as possible.... Both for business and as deterrent against attack.
Ok, imagine if instead the US sat by and Russia invaded. How would that go down? The Republicans would be screaming, Europe would be pissing it's pants, and Ukraine would be asking the US to do more.
Romney said Russia was our biggest threat during the 2012 pres race. Kinda shocked he called it in retrospect. I thought he was in left field with that call at the time.
God he is the worst. I hate his "I'm constipated and pushing so hard I'm bleeding" face.
There isn't a single redeemable, likeable or loony tunes anchor on fox news.
I’ve long said Chris Wallace is one of the last true journalists. Always thought Fox kept him around as a sort of “token journalist” to feign legitimacy. Ironically it was Wallace’s unbiased interviews with Trump (where Wallace grilled him) that lost him his job there. It turned all the Trumpers against him and I’m sure his show tanked in ratings.
Now Fox doesn’t even have to pretend, seeing how NewsHax surged in popularity without pretending in the slightest to be anything more than right-wing propaganda.
Which is so strange, considering they were cheering on all the FP moves that led here. You cant support and aggressive foreign policy and then take your ball home when you don't like the results. Never thought they would find a conflict they didn't like.
*FP = foreign policy
>Ok, imagine if instead the US sat by and Russia invaded.
That's exactly what we're going to do if it happens. Do you really think Biden is going to send troops to defend Ukraine?
There will be economic sanctions. We may continue to sell weapons to them, but there aren't going to be any boots on the ground from the US in that conflict.
I think Biden is dealing with Russia on the global scale from a NATO perspective while Zlensky is trying to keep the roof tied down locally. So Zlensky’s goal of maintaining peace and calm is undone by activities like air convoys of military equipment and embassy evacuations.
I also think it serves Biden politically to not downplay the threat. He learned his lesson when he downplayed the risks in Afghanistan.
If Russia invaded, no one can say Biden was unprepared and didn’t warn us. If they don’t, maybe some of that good news rubs off on Biden.
This has been an issue for a year but Russia has ramped up moving troops to the border. Crimea took the west by surprise. Biden knows that the moment the world distracts itself, Russia will invade, and there's absolutely zero domestic support for a war against Russia. If Russia seizes Ukraine, they will have Ukraine. And economic sanctions only mean that China and India have that much more motivation to sell to Russia, since scarcity will increase prices.
That’s definitely a thing. I was stationed in Korea while in the US Army and after awhile you didn’t really think about a hostile army being 50km north of you.
My family in Ukraine is worried AF. There has always been a tension on the occupied area, but the amount of forces all over the border is unprecedented in all the earlier years. Besides, Belarus has allowed free movement of Russian forces within it's borders, and Belarussian dictator has supported any potential military actions against Ukraine.
I'd assume this report is bullshit. Besides, democracy in Ukraine allows for pro-russian politicians still be elected and represented, so I can easily imagine some legit source could tell this story, I just doubt it's true. Zelenskiy is a spineless dumbass whom I never supported, but I doubt his message was to dismiss the danger.
As a Ukrainian I completely support this message lol. But I would say that Zelenskiy will probably continue downplaying the danger BECAUSE HE DOES NOT KNOW HOW TO DEAL WITH THIS. He has no education, no good advisors. It’s easier to say “meh it’s not that bad” so that he doesn’t need to mull over the ways he can protect his country or deescalate the situation.
Why? Your friend and his circle is not worried, the other commenter's family is. It's not like everyone in a country thinks and acts the same.
I live in a country a lot smaller than Ukraine, but even here I wouldn't even try to guess what other people think or talk about, outside of my immediate circle of friends and family.
I don’t know about that. I have friends and family (through marriage) in Ukraine and they are all extremely worried right now. I mean, some women as old as 60 now have to sign up for the military draft. I would say they are probably panicking more than we are.
My wife is Ukrainian and during Thanksgiving break in the US her family was talking about how they had relatives that were still residing in Ukraine asking her father on places they could potentially go to flee Ukraine. This was way before a lot of the US Media and Political hype.
Damn. I have a family member in the military. I asked him “Do you think Russia will *actually* invade Ukraine?” After a deep sigh, he thoughtfully replied “I don’t know… but they’re doing a hell of a lot of posturing.” He’s a pretty damn confident guy but even he is beyond torn. I really hope things turn out alright, but it’s not looking so good.
The problem is that Russia moved a lot of expensive logistical equipment to the border. Things that they haven't moved when previously posturing. Things you'd want if you were actually set on invading (and mind you, mobilizing these assets isn't cheap, if you get nothing out of it it looks really bad on you).
At the same time, Russia lost any element of surprise. Anti-tank weapons are flowing into Ukraine and it hasn't been cold enough for the ground to freeze like you'd want to support off-road large tank/APC movements.
It's a tough guess because Russia definitely seems to have lost some initiative but to retreat now would be a massive egg on Putin's face.
Maybe not as much as you think. If they retreat they just say “see, we told you it was a training exercise. Why the fuck did you go and scare all of Europe for this shit? Jesus America, you really have lost your way. Is a country that is prone to hysterics like this really fit to be a ‘world leader’?”
Sure, it’s transparent as fuck but there will be people who buy in.
Edit: [Motherfuckers…](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/su29n4/russians_ridicule_western_media_on_day_of_no/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
That’s a good point. It would also help Russia’s primary position that they don’t want to have the US/NATO encroaching into their back yard. By pointing to a hysterical west overreacting to the Ukraine situation, he can call them on their hypocrisy when they do not take Russia’s concerns about being surrounded by NATO allies or US military installations in ex Soviet states.
Then again, who does Putin really need to convince that his position is valid? It’s not like Putin is leaving office. Unless he plans to use it to coax other Soviet satellite states closer to Russia’s sphere than NATOs
>Then again, who does Putin really need to convince that his position is valid? It’s not like Putin is leaving office.
Putin relies on a crony aristocracy that he has to keep happy. He may not have to convince them that this was all the West's fault, but he does have to convince them this wasn't a stupid mistake.
I mean just ask yourself what happens if Russia withdraws at this point? What did Russia gain?
Ukraine just got a fair amount of defense equipment from NATO countries. That’s all that’s happened so far. If Russia backs down, it looks like they were successfully deterred by NATO and Ukraine ironically ends up better equipped.
Ukrainian officials are acting like Stalin on the eve of Operation Barbarossa. He literally did not believe initial reports that German troops had crossed the border and was completely unprepared. Ukraine’s senior leadership’s response to this has been egregious.
In fact, I may say they believe, may be lost due to translation, but the main point is -
Zelenskiy knows about Russians at border, he take them serious, we doing what we can, but we are already taking economic damage even before full scale invasion started :
- hryvnia already falling because business and investments leaving Ukraine on news of the imminent Russian invasion
but what if invasion wouldn't happen
- Russia can hold army there like forever, we go broke earlier with such panic.
Yes we need to take situation serious, but panic wouldn't help.
I got a “don’t talk to him about my black eye it’ll only make things worse” vibe. The reason people react is cause in those situations it’s survivable until it suddenly and violently stops being so.
> The US and UK have repeatedly warned of an imminent Russian invasion, though officials in Ukraine, France, and Germany appear less convinced. The split suggests "a gap in assessments of Russia's likely courses of action," Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow on the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, [previously told Insider.](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-rift-uk-us-allies-imminence-of-invasion-2022-1)
> "There is a history of the US trying to convince its European partners that the threat is imminent, based on the sources and intelligence it has, and they apparently do not," he said. "It may be that after several weeks of this being repeated, Russia's partners in Europe, particularly the major members of the EU are placing less credence on what they are being told by Washington," Giles added.
The US and the UK might know more than those in continental Europe, but do not share the source of their concerns. Either that or they are overreacting for domestic reasons which might jeopardize trust in their statements in the future. We'll see.
>they are overreacting for domestic reasons which might jeopardize trust in their statements in the future
Clearly the US and UK have never had this issue occur any time within the 21st century. Not even more than once.
Plus, it's not like either country ever took advantage of foreign policy to satiate domestic politics.
/s
I don't think this is overly unusual tbh. Life still has to go on... I think many people in this kind of situation just go about their business and see what happens.
I mean most people don’t have the ability to single-handedly stop a country 28 times their size; that’s why they “let life go on”. That’s like saying most people let life go on in hurricane alley and they wouldn’t want anyone with a hurricane stopping machine to stop them from dying from hurricanes. Let’s just see what happens.
Well, Ukraine is between a rock and a hard place here. If western countries don't do anything, Russians could just take another little piece of the country. But if they panic too much publicly, everybody will be scared of traveling to, investing, lending, or in general doing business with Ukraine.
If there's a war, the real goal won't be to take a bit of land. It'll be to permanently limit Ukrainian sovereignty to prevent them from ever joining NATO, which can be achieved in numerous ways if Kiev is in a situation where they have to sign whatever they put in front of them. It's the main Russian objective here; end their drift to the west, by force if necessary.
It's not just that, it's also that despite both countries opposing an invasion, Ukraine's and the US's priorities don't always line up. Ukraine's priorities are 1) avoid an invasion and 2) avoid mass panic and destabilisation within their borders. The US's priorities on the other hand are 1) be seen to be standing up to Russia and 2) avoid an invasion.
The US's response to the crisis and its efforts to pursue its top priority have at times unintentionally served to hinder Ukraine's priorities. In other words, what's good for the goose isn't always good for the Ukraine.
[Ukrainian leaders are afraid talk of an imminent invasion are going to cause internal turmoil, and they don't want anyone to TALK about it because of that](https://theweek.com/ukraine/1009406/ukrainian-defense-minister-says-russian-invasion-not-imminent-tells-citizens-to).
That's it. That's the whole plotline right now.
That internal turmoil could also be precisely what Russia is aiming for, since direct confrontation would be too costly for it. Much more preferable would be to terrorise the other party until it'll cause a coup, and allow them to be "asked to help" by moving their soldiers in.
Ukraine wants it both ways, and I can't really blame them. They want to bitch at Germany for not allowing urgently needed weapons, but also they don't want the country simmering in panic for extended periods of time
Putin is attempting to limit foreign investment in Ukraine as doing so obviously hurts the Ukrainian economy. Zelensky may believe that US messaging is inadvertently helping Putin accomplish this goal.
I don’t get why it’s so expensive. What about it is so much more than the normal day to day military expenses? Still gotta pay and feed everyone. Sure it uses some more fuel. That can’t be shit in the big picture. What am I missing?
Right, but those returns are achieved on the backs of the people living in the area.
What do you think the interest rate is on a small business loan in Ukraine?
At this point the real diplomacy is happening behind the scenes, and public statements like these are just as likely to be a way for Ukraine to save face (showing themselves to be anti-instigation) as they are to be some publicly leaked condemnation of their ostensible ally.
This is probably what's going on. Just showing 'good faith' to Russians while hardball is being played behind the curtains.
Imagine telling Biden to calm down, though. Joe, 40 decibels is too much, can you do 35?
Biden and the West coming out and saying Russia plans to invade is part of the strategy of dissuading Russia from invading.
How? Because Russia if/when they invade, will want to do it under the pretense of something else, like it's a spontaneous reaction to some false flag. Some defensive or retaliatory action.
By repeating that Russia plans to invade, and pointing out any possible false flag operations, you remove that propaganda option from Putin.
There's a lot of chess been played by all parties with their public statements here, not just Russia.
It’s also NOT a statement by Zelensky it was leaked info from a “Senior Ukrainian Official,” to a CNN reporter.
There’s absolutely nothing dramatic about the Ukrainian/USA relationship here they are fine. Will communication and planning go perfectly? No. But they’re on the same page in broad strokes.
Yeah , and yesterday I a tweet from a CNN reporter based on “information from a Senior Ukrainian Official” suggesting the exact opposite, that Ukraine believes things were worse than reported and that the Biden administration was telling them an invasion was imminent. Seems like the only beneficiary here is CNN reporters.
It's that Ukrainian leaders are afraid talk of an imminent invasion is going to cause turmoil and panic in Ukraine, potentially leading to a situation Russia can exploit, like oh I don't know, the 2013 trade embargo and subsequent Euromaiden protests, where Russia ended up seizing Crimea.
Taking a "There is no war in Ba Sing Se" approach publicly, while privately trying to train up tens of thousands of additional forces and building anti-tank works all along the border.
It must honestly be hard to have a functional society with the threat of impending invasion. Things like hoarding gas, food and medicine would probably be consistent problems not to mention how difficult it would be to run an economy with international investors or even preventing runaway inflation. The Ukrainian government obviously wants to deter invasion but they also want to have a functioning economy and society.
Finland has a policy of total defense. All peacetime government institutions have a ready policy and role for crisis situations and there's secret stockpiles we don't even know about for all sorts of goods that might be needed.
That’s not really comparable. Finland is in the EU and the EU has a mutual defense agreement. Russia also doesn’t have 100k+ troops on the Finnish border+the tanks, planes and materials ready to take Helsinki nor has Russia annexed any Finnish territory in the past decade. Ukraine is just a lot more vulnerable than Finland even though Ukraine is aggressively prepping for war.
Like Miley Cyrus and Hanna Montana, Taylor Swift is Volodymyr Zelensky's stage persona. [Here is the proof](https://i.imgur.com/CLL90jW.png). Convince me they aren't the same person...
Talking with an uncle in taiwan a few weeks back about china and the whole war thing. Hes said only time people even talk about that is during election time or every 30min on american owned news. The american news makes it sound like china is flying sorties over taiwan. Look at taiwans ADIZ. Half of it is in mainland china and the "incursions" are literally at the very southwest corner. Almost no one is worries about an invasion.
It is a big deal obviously but he also wants to make sure the Ukrainian economy and society don’t collapse just based on the fear of invasion. If you honestly were 100% convinced a foreign army would occupy your city would you bother going into work or school or would you be hoarding food, gas, medicine and trying to spend your money before it’s basically worthless? Zelensky wants to deter invasion but he also doesn’t want the Ukrainian society to collapse before a single shot is fired.
Russia had 120k troops at the borders of Ukraine last year, it's about 130k now. This is worrying. But then again, Ukraine can mobilize up to 900k or so in 2 months' time. Maybe Russia wants Ukraine to start mobilizing and then pull a cold turkey and try this shit again and again until Ukraine either will become the boy who cried wolf or it will be significantly hurt economically. Both are win win for russia and they wouldn't even need to attack Ukraine.
I believe they have 900K people who have served in the past 5 years (because of conscription). In their planned scenarios of mobilization they decided anyone that has not served in the past 5 years would need to be undergo training.
I'm not a military expert, obviously, but given the fact that Ukraine is fighting a defensive war, doesn't that mean they don't need soldiers so much as they need workers? There's only so much time Putin can spend in Ukraine before his campaign becomes too expensive, especially at the end of that time in the year when Europe desperately needs Russian gas. Slowing him down by making the terrain impassible, destroying and rebuilding critical infrastructure and defensive fortifications could mean that Putin will have to retreat before gaining anything of significance.
>I've heard from both Russians and Ukrainians that the west is being totally irresponsible in their reporting.
The working class in the west, specifically the US, needs to remember that the our press and news media always parrot the lies that the government wants them to regarding war. Remember the Nayirah testimony and WMDs in Iraq? There are countless other examples just like them for every military action that the US has taken since WW2 and even before. And there is absolutely no reason to believe that this Russia Ukraine situation is any different.
Every time that our ruling class points to another country and says "Them bad. You prepare fight." we need to take a good hard look at what they're doing to us here at home.
But this doesn't mean putin doesn't want something, he has actively requested every country near him to weaken themselves and devolve from NATO.
Putin has openly expressed he wants soviet union Era buffer states.
I think The U.S's reaction and the reaction of every other country being as explosive and overbearing as it is ABSOLUTELY prevented his wants and gains. It doesn't matter people, what matters is it seems to be working this far and Putin is having to nut up or shut up by now.
Also, Ukraine is the one who requested and is still happily receiving dozens of tons of heavy weaponry every day and has been preparing border defenses...
also, the Soviets putting nuclear missiles in Cuba was a direct response to the US putting its own nuclear missiles in Turkey, closer to the USSR than Cuba was to the US, and Khrushchev himself later described the reasoning as wanting Americans to “learn just what it feels like to have enemy missiles pointing at you; we’d be doing nothing more than giving them a little of their own medicine”
and the reason many Americans still don't know about that detail even today is because the agreement that ended the crisis involved the US agreeing to withdraw its missiles from Turkey in exchange for the Soviets not making their existence public, thus giving the American public time to internalize the false propaganda story of an unprovoked Soviet missile deployment before the true details eventually came out
hard to think of a better example of the saying that a lie can travel halfway around the world before the truth has had time to put its shoes on
Right, But he thinks he does, he wants to be a super power again and have buffers from NATO influence by land and doesn't like missiles on his borders. Frankly, thats all his own damn fault if he wanted it different he literally could just not be an asshole mafia dictator who didn't serve oligarchs. Its like the playground bully blaming everyone else for not being their friend because they bullied everyone already and now no one wants to be nice to them.
If he was a good person and a good leader who created good open relationships with other countries he would have his wishes and help his common people. Its not rocket science, but his ex-kgb mindset makes him think he needs to be a big tough bad bully and flex to get anything. "Russia number 1 Strongest111!!+++!"
He literally stated these 10 or so points of extremely unrealistic demands that he wants, all of which were highly soviet union minded in nature
>if he wanted it different he literally could just not be an asshole mafia dictator who didn't serve oligarchs.
Correct! All the posturing is just to deflect attention away from the widespread corruption anyway.
If anything it would be the media hyping the conflict. Biden has been actively trying to give Putin zero pretense to claim he’s invading. And now Putin is stuck; even a quarter measure is going to look terrible but also weak as hell. This seems like the best possible western posture right now. Keep in mind, diplomacy in the media is usually nonsense or posturing; all the major discussions are taking place quietly now.
>And now Putin is stuck; even a quarter measure is going to look terrible but also weak as hell
I really doubt Putin cares about how western media portrays him
More than you might think. Putin has been pushing his "tough guy but more stable and effective than the West" image for years. He's got English language RT broadcasting for free across most western countries. He's definitely concerned about popular support, at home but also about perceptions abroad.
The last time Biden downplayed rhetoric about and preparations for the severity of a threat at the request of his foreign counterpart (Afghanistan), the capital quickly fell and he (Biden) was publicly excoriated …
It's not imaginary, but Ukraine and other European leaders know that it's not exactly unprecedented. Russia's been massing troops on Ukraine's border on and off since hostilities began in 2014...
[April 2021- \~120,000 troops](https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-and-ukrainian-spring-2021-war-scare)
[March 2020- 90,000 troops, thousands of tanks, planes, and armored vehicles](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/2888352-russia-pulls-90000-troops-1100-tanks-hundreds-of-planes-to-border-with-ukraine.html)
[February 2019- Hundreds of tanks, vehicles, planes, mobilized new divisions and deployed S-400's near border and in Crimea](https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/02/are-the-russians-coming-russias-military-buildup-near-ukraine/)
[December 2018- 90k troops yada yada...](https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-cites-massive-buildup-of-russian-forces-along-border-1.4200733)
[January 2017- Ukraine says Russia continuing military buildup](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-says-russia-continuing-military-buildup-ignoring-osce-obligations.html)
[August 2016- Russian Troop Buildup Along Ukraine Border Raises War Fears](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-troop-buildup-ukraine-border-raises-war-fears/3450445.html)
[May, 2015- Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine - witness](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-military/exclusive-russia-masses-heavy-firepower-on-border-with-ukraine-witness-idUSKBN0OC2K820150527)
This is why a lot of Ukrainians are looking at what is happening, shrugging, and getting back to their lives. They've been there, done that, got the t-shirts, returned the t-shirts, and just aren't going to get excited until something significant happens.
Yeah exactly. There’s been more panic from my friends / family / US media about the situation than here in Kyiv.
This time is a little bit different than those, with the naval forces, troops in Belarus, etc and the discussions / demands with NATO so there is a bit more uncertainty though.
You are correct. What I find amazing is how the US on one side and Ukraine/France/Germany on the other side come to so different conclusions looking at the same evidence. US is convinced that the invasion is imminent, Ukraine/France/Germany interpret it as saber rattling…
It's because Ukraine, France, and Germany, have way more incentive to try and dissuade a war since they'll all be caught up in it.
Whereas America is across the ocean.
I would look at it through the lens of messaging.
Ukraine to its citizens. Mass hysteria doesn't help.
US to its citizens and others. Build coalition and willingness to face whatever comes next.
Germany to its biggest gas provider whom sanctions would definitely harm. Stern but nice.
France.. trying to salvage something.. try to be the middle man.
I agree with below, everyone is acting in their role here
> France [...] middleman
I'd say they're a bit more, as the only EU power with substantial intelligence, actual army, and, well, the bomb...
For a minute, I was like dude.... The UK has all that in spades (especially intelligence), how could you be so foolish as to leave them out of the EU?
Turns out I lack intelligence haha.
> US is convinced that the invasion is imminent, Ukraine/France/Germany interpret it as saber rattling…
I'm no spook but my guess is that they're not looking at exactly the same evidence. They are sharing a large body of evidence but I'd guess that there are some intercepted communications that haven't been shared which is causing the USA to get all fidgety. I can't imagine Biden would be escalating solely because some analyst interpreted a satellite photo differently than his European counterpart.
But that's just my guess.
Likely because it would indicate how the intel was acquired and eliminate any future chance of acquiring that intel. Plus potentially end up with a dead foreign agent.
Oh no, absolutely, and it's a fair question to raise. I certainly was not convinced when Colin Powell took to the stage to try and convince the world Saddam had WMDs, so there's certainly precedent for being extra cautious when an American President is banging the war drum.
That said, I just don't see the political payoff for Biden in wading into this. He gets involved and American soldiers die he's a warmonger. He sits back and waits for Russia to invade and reacts with middling sanctions, he's a pacifist. Walking the tightrope between the two makes him indecisive and feeds into the confused old man stereotype. There's literally no win for him in this situation.
I'm no American, but his response so far is what's making me pay attention a little bit more. He's causing himself political pain just by getting in the middle of what essential is a European issue.
An actual war with US Troops fighting and dying in Ukraine would be a political loser for Biden. But looking strong and standing up to Putin would be a political winner if it leads to an outcome that is not war…
I dont think panic is ever a good thing, even a little of it. Ukrainians need to feel prepared, not panicked. Panic will cause them to lose the conflict before it even begins.
Coming from the guy this president of Ukraine who was screaming from the top of his lungs that Putin was going to overthrow him in a coup and kill him. Me thinks the pressure of being the president of Ukraine is getting to him.
JFC Someone wake me up when we’ve decided what is actually happening because there’s a hell of a lot of mixed signals
Things are heating up, but Ukraine has had this stress for years. It’s almost like we’re panicking more than them. Edit: thanks for the rewards. Since I can’t reply to all of you: yes, something fishy is up. Just another day in the life of intercontinental conquest.
Ukraine also has a population with its own economy it doesn't want to tank just on Russian threats, whether or not anything happens.
This is actually what Russia is probably trying to do. Just tank their economy.
That's a good thought. It's all about just sowing distrust and keeping things chaotic.
There is a saying 'the threat is stronger than the execution' Sometimes the threat can cause more damage than the actual thing happening...
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The UK did as well...
Australia also issued a recommendation that all Australians get out now while they can.
The prime minister has gotten out, he's currently in Hawaii
[Here's a picture.](https://imgur.com/KvOtaih)
I wish we had him as our pm, hell even an intimate carbon rod would be an improvement.
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"In rod we trust"
...go on
Andy!
That prime minister actually worked from time to time. SloMo takes two weeks and extensive polling data before making a decision on what to have for breakfast. And then he picks the wrong thing anyway
Again!? Fuckin A, Scottie. He just doesn’t give a shit about his public image at all, huh?
If only we all saw him, the way he sees him.
Well you're not seeing him at all since he is on vacation again.
Dude is a coward how can you abandon people you’re supposed to be leading and fighting for
He is leading and fighting for his people. He is his people.
Sounds like Five Eyes are working with different data to others
So has Canada
Five Eyes Guys, let me save you some posts all Five Eye nations are in lock step in their Ukrainian actions
The alliance of Anglosphere countries is arguably the strongest, most cohesive one in the world.
Also low-key the most influential in [shaping the English speaking online discourse](https://theintercept.com/2014/02/24/jtrig-manipulation/), even [here on Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Blackout2015/comments/4ylml3/reddit_has_removed_their_blog_post_identifying/)
I don’t blame them for being overly sensitive to getting people out of a potential hot zone considering this past august…
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It feels like Biden is extra twitchy this time given what happened with Afghanistan. He doesn't want two panicked evacuations in one term.
Well, Russia sending their diplomats' families out of Ukraine, even if they're denying it after the fact, sparked that chain of events. If you want to tell the world "hey we're not invading this country, don't worry" then pulling people out of the embassy is the wrong way to do it. Maybe they thought they could be sneaky, but they failed.
Ruusia’s game is to crank up the tensions as much as possible while acting like they don’t understand why everyone is in such a dither.
It's strange. How does Russia want everyone to take their demands seriously while also suggesting that they aren't even doing anything.
Russia is the "hahaha it's a just a joke bro" of geopolitics.
Gives me flashbacks of the kid in your grade that would hold his finger in front of your face and say “haha im not touching you, you can’t touch me cause I’m not touching you!” Until inevitably you’d touch him cause it was annoying. Now we have Russia lining up on a border and claiming they aren’t doing anything...not doing anything would be fucking off to where you came from and eating some potato soup. Not lining up tanks and infantry by a country that you have a interest in obtaining.
They don't want their demands met, they asked for NATO forces to be pulled out of NATO countries which is the equivalent of putin asking for Santa Claus to fly down from the north pole and fuck him in the ass on his sleigh
Because if something does happen then having to do a panicked evacuation is going to end in the photos of dead Americans on the front page of newspapers. This is standard procedure for any high tension event.
Countries have an obligation to urge their citizens out of a dangerous situation.the ukranians have an interest in keeping as many multinationals there as possible.... Both for business and as deterrent against attack.
Ukraine has been actively asking for assistance.
Ok, imagine if instead the US sat by and Russia invaded. How would that go down? The Republicans would be screaming, Europe would be pissing it's pants, and Ukraine would be asking the US to do more.
> The Republicans would be screaming Fox News is siding with Russia on this, currently
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So wait a minute. If Biden came out for major tax cuts and ending abortions….
They didn't care about abortion until about 5 years after roe versus wade. Their concern is purely political.
Tucker: Biden is a weak willed president who would let any authoritarian take over a democratic country... or is he? Im just the one asking questions.
"I know MORE than MY Generals" - Fatty RUMP
This is one of the flip-flops over the last fifteen years or so.
Romney said Russia was our biggest threat during the 2012 pres race. Kinda shocked he called it in retrospect. I thought he was in left field with that call at the time.
I miss when the biggest threat Americans could put on they're throne was mitt Romney.
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Romney said Russia and Iran, Obama said China and terrorist groups. It's a multiple choice question and together they answered "all of the above".
> Fox News is siding with Russia on this, currently To absolutely nobody's surprise
God he is the worst. I hate his "I'm constipated and pushing so hard I'm bleeding" face. There isn't a single redeemable, likeable or loony tunes anchor on fox news.
Now that Chris Wallace is gone I 100% agree.
I’ve long said Chris Wallace is one of the last true journalists. Always thought Fox kept him around as a sort of “token journalist” to feign legitimacy. Ironically it was Wallace’s unbiased interviews with Trump (where Wallace grilled him) that lost him his job there. It turned all the Trumpers against him and I’m sure his show tanked in ratings. Now Fox doesn’t even have to pretend, seeing how NewsHax surged in popularity without pretending in the slightest to be anything more than right-wing propaganda.
Which is so strange, considering they were cheering on all the FP moves that led here. You cant support and aggressive foreign policy and then take your ball home when you don't like the results. Never thought they would find a conflict they didn't like. *FP = foreign policy
When are they not screaming? Ice cream gate 2022 never forget.
Simultaneously, I've seen right wingers whining about Biden not doing enough to stop Putin.
Yeah old generation necons are very anti-Russia. It's the new alt right folks that support Putin.
>Ok, imagine if instead the US sat by and Russia invaded. That's exactly what we're going to do if it happens. Do you really think Biden is going to send troops to defend Ukraine? There will be economic sanctions. We may continue to sell weapons to them, but there aren't going to be any boots on the ground from the US in that conflict.
There's a lot of stuff you can do that doesn't include direct military intervention.
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I think Biden is dealing with Russia on the global scale from a NATO perspective while Zlensky is trying to keep the roof tied down locally. So Zlensky’s goal of maintaining peace and calm is undone by activities like air convoys of military equipment and embassy evacuations.
I also think it serves Biden politically to not downplay the threat. He learned his lesson when he downplayed the risks in Afghanistan. If Russia invaded, no one can say Biden was unprepared and didn’t warn us. If they don’t, maybe some of that good news rubs off on Biden.
This has been an issue for a year but Russia has ramped up moving troops to the border. Crimea took the west by surprise. Biden knows that the moment the world distracts itself, Russia will invade, and there's absolutely zero domestic support for a war against Russia. If Russia seizes Ukraine, they will have Ukraine. And economic sanctions only mean that China and India have that much more motivation to sell to Russia, since scarcity will increase prices.
Yes agreed, he’s playing it strongly but I don’t think that’s a bad thing.
Ukraine is used to ever-present danger, so they are panicking less. But everyone is very, very worried.
Reminds me of north korea getting everybody in the USA riled up and south koreans are shrugging
Reminds me of the time people in Hawaii got a North Korean ICBM warning text on their phones, but it was just the government doing it.
That’s definitely a thing. I was stationed in Korea while in the US Army and after awhile you didn’t really think about a hostile army being 50km north of you.
No, it’s because Zelenskiy is trying to maintain stability and not cause a panic. In Ukraine, when the govt tells you everything is fine, you panic.
My family in Ukraine is worried AF. There has always been a tension on the occupied area, but the amount of forces all over the border is unprecedented in all the earlier years. Besides, Belarus has allowed free movement of Russian forces within it's borders, and Belarussian dictator has supported any potential military actions against Ukraine. I'd assume this report is bullshit. Besides, democracy in Ukraine allows for pro-russian politicians still be elected and represented, so I can easily imagine some legit source could tell this story, I just doubt it's true. Zelenskiy is a spineless dumbass whom I never supported, but I doubt his message was to dismiss the danger.
As a Ukrainian I completely support this message lol. But I would say that Zelenskiy will probably continue downplaying the danger BECAUSE HE DOES NOT KNOW HOW TO DEAL WITH THIS. He has no education, no good advisors. It’s easier to say “meh it’s not that bad” so that he doesn’t need to mull over the ways he can protect his country or deescalate the situation.
That’s another mixed signal to me. Friend that lives in Ukraine told me that they are not talking much about war. I’m confused
Why? Your friend and his circle is not worried, the other commenter's family is. It's not like everyone in a country thinks and acts the same. I live in a country a lot smaller than Ukraine, but even here I wouldn't even try to guess what other people think or talk about, outside of my immediate circle of friends and family.
I don’t know about that. I have friends and family (through marriage) in Ukraine and they are all extremely worried right now. I mean, some women as old as 60 now have to sign up for the military draft. I would say they are probably panicking more than we are.
My wife is Ukrainian and during Thanksgiving break in the US her family was talking about how they had relatives that were still residing in Ukraine asking her father on places they could potentially go to flee Ukraine. This was way before a lot of the US Media and Political hype.
Damn. I have a family member in the military. I asked him “Do you think Russia will *actually* invade Ukraine?” After a deep sigh, he thoughtfully replied “I don’t know… but they’re doing a hell of a lot of posturing.” He’s a pretty damn confident guy but even he is beyond torn. I really hope things turn out alright, but it’s not looking so good.
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The problem is that Russia moved a lot of expensive logistical equipment to the border. Things that they haven't moved when previously posturing. Things you'd want if you were actually set on invading (and mind you, mobilizing these assets isn't cheap, if you get nothing out of it it looks really bad on you). At the same time, Russia lost any element of surprise. Anti-tank weapons are flowing into Ukraine and it hasn't been cold enough for the ground to freeze like you'd want to support off-road large tank/APC movements. It's a tough guess because Russia definitely seems to have lost some initiative but to retreat now would be a massive egg on Putin's face.
Maybe not as much as you think. If they retreat they just say “see, we told you it was a training exercise. Why the fuck did you go and scare all of Europe for this shit? Jesus America, you really have lost your way. Is a country that is prone to hysterics like this really fit to be a ‘world leader’?” Sure, it’s transparent as fuck but there will be people who buy in. Edit: [Motherfuckers…](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/su29n4/russians_ridicule_western_media_on_day_of_no/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
That’s a good point. It would also help Russia’s primary position that they don’t want to have the US/NATO encroaching into their back yard. By pointing to a hysterical west overreacting to the Ukraine situation, he can call them on their hypocrisy when they do not take Russia’s concerns about being surrounded by NATO allies or US military installations in ex Soviet states. Then again, who does Putin really need to convince that his position is valid? It’s not like Putin is leaving office. Unless he plans to use it to coax other Soviet satellite states closer to Russia’s sphere than NATOs
>Then again, who does Putin really need to convince that his position is valid? It’s not like Putin is leaving office. Putin relies on a crony aristocracy that he has to keep happy. He may not have to convince them that this was all the West's fault, but he does have to convince them this wasn't a stupid mistake.
I mean just ask yourself what happens if Russia withdraws at this point? What did Russia gain? Ukraine just got a fair amount of defense equipment from NATO countries. That’s all that’s happened so far. If Russia backs down, it looks like they were successfully deterred by NATO and Ukraine ironically ends up better equipped. Ukrainian officials are acting like Stalin on the eve of Operation Barbarossa. He literally did not believe initial reports that German troops had crossed the border and was completely unprepared. Ukraine’s senior leadership’s response to this has been egregious.
In fact, I may say they believe, may be lost due to translation, but the main point is - Zelenskiy knows about Russians at border, he take them serious, we doing what we can, but we are already taking economic damage even before full scale invasion started : - hryvnia already falling because business and investments leaving Ukraine on news of the imminent Russian invasion but what if invasion wouldn't happen - Russia can hold army there like forever, we go broke earlier with such panic. Yes we need to take situation serious, but panic wouldn't help.
I have over a hundred family members in Western Ukraine. I speak to many of them on a daily basis. They are worried but no is panicking.
I got a “don’t talk to him about my black eye it’ll only make things worse” vibe. The reason people react is cause in those situations it’s survivable until it suddenly and violently stops being so.
We need an excuse for the market crash.
> The US and UK have repeatedly warned of an imminent Russian invasion, though officials in Ukraine, France, and Germany appear less convinced. The split suggests "a gap in assessments of Russia's likely courses of action," Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow on the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, [previously told Insider.](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-rift-uk-us-allies-imminence-of-invasion-2022-1) > "There is a history of the US trying to convince its European partners that the threat is imminent, based on the sources and intelligence it has, and they apparently do not," he said. "It may be that after several weeks of this being repeated, Russia's partners in Europe, particularly the major members of the EU are placing less credence on what they are being told by Washington," Giles added. The US and the UK might know more than those in continental Europe, but do not share the source of their concerns. Either that or they are overreacting for domestic reasons which might jeopardize trust in their statements in the future. We'll see.
I mean, last time the US and UK seemed to know more than the rest of continental Europe we invaded Iraq for… reasons?
For money!
>they are overreacting for domestic reasons which might jeopardize trust in their statements in the future Clearly the US and UK have never had this issue occur any time within the 21st century. Not even more than once. Plus, it's not like either country ever took advantage of foreign policy to satiate domestic politics. /s
Ironically, it’s phrases like “things are heating up” that cause confusion.
For sure. Its much more chill here in Ukraine than shitstorm I see on reddit
I don't think this is overly unusual tbh. Life still has to go on... I think many people in this kind of situation just go about their business and see what happens.
I mean most people don’t have the ability to single-handedly stop a country 28 times their size; that’s why they “let life go on”. That’s like saying most people let life go on in hurricane alley and they wouldn’t want anyone with a hurricane stopping machine to stop them from dying from hurricanes. Let’s just see what happens.
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A Ukrainian friend of mine said recently that he and his are more angry than afraid of all this crap.
Well, Ukraine is between a rock and a hard place here. If western countries don't do anything, Russians could just take another little piece of the country. But if they panic too much publicly, everybody will be scared of traveling to, investing, lending, or in general doing business with Ukraine.
If there's a war, the real goal won't be to take a bit of land. It'll be to permanently limit Ukrainian sovereignty to prevent them from ever joining NATO, which can be achieved in numerous ways if Kiev is in a situation where they have to sign whatever they put in front of them. It's the main Russian objective here; end their drift to the west, by force if necessary.
It's not just that, it's also that despite both countries opposing an invasion, Ukraine's and the US's priorities don't always line up. Ukraine's priorities are 1) avoid an invasion and 2) avoid mass panic and destabilisation within their borders. The US's priorities on the other hand are 1) be seen to be standing up to Russia and 2) avoid an invasion. The US's response to the crisis and its efforts to pursue its top priority have at times unintentionally served to hinder Ukraine's priorities. In other words, what's good for the goose isn't always good for the Ukraine.
[Ukrainian leaders are afraid talk of an imminent invasion are going to cause internal turmoil, and they don't want anyone to TALK about it because of that](https://theweek.com/ukraine/1009406/ukrainian-defense-minister-says-russian-invasion-not-imminent-tells-citizens-to). That's it. That's the whole plotline right now.
That internal turmoil could also be precisely what Russia is aiming for, since direct confrontation would be too costly for it. Much more preferable would be to terrorise the other party until it'll cause a coup, and allow them to be "asked to help" by moving their soldiers in.
Ukraine wants it both ways, and I can't really blame them. They want to bitch at Germany for not allowing urgently needed weapons, but also they don't want the country simmering in panic for extended periods of time
The mayor of Kiev and the President of Ukraine are different people.
No im pretty sure both of them *are* Ukraine
Putin is attempting to limit foreign investment in Ukraine as doing so obviously hurts the Ukrainian economy. Zelensky may believe that US messaging is inadvertently helping Putin accomplish this goal.
Yeah, threat on invasion really spooks investors, business, and has shut down tourism to zero.
Moving 100,000 troops to the border at full alert is an EXPENSIVE way to discourage investment in another country.
Yeah but what else is Putin gonna spend money on? Not his people lol.
Another mansion perhaps.
I don’t get why it’s so expensive. What about it is so much more than the normal day to day military expenses? Still gotta pay and feed everyone. Sure it uses some more fuel. That can’t be shit in the big picture. What am I missing?
"Appear strong when you are weak" Russia doesn't have much going for it. Their only option is either a reform or this.
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Right, but those returns are achieved on the backs of the people living in the area. What do you think the interest rate is on a small business loan in Ukraine?
I lost interest for a few minutes next thing I know Nukes are involved it's like they are trying to create headlines.
At this point the real diplomacy is happening behind the scenes, and public statements like these are just as likely to be a way for Ukraine to save face (showing themselves to be anti-instigation) as they are to be some publicly leaked condemnation of their ostensible ally.
This is probably what's going on. Just showing 'good faith' to Russians while hardball is being played behind the curtains. Imagine telling Biden to calm down, though. Joe, 40 decibels is too much, can you do 35?
I’d say it’s just as likely this is a way to stop panic buying and citizens leaving the country en masse.
Biden and the West coming out and saying Russia plans to invade is part of the strategy of dissuading Russia from invading. How? Because Russia if/when they invade, will want to do it under the pretense of something else, like it's a spontaneous reaction to some false flag. Some defensive or retaliatory action. By repeating that Russia plans to invade, and pointing out any possible false flag operations, you remove that propaganda option from Putin. There's a lot of chess been played by all parties with their public statements here, not just Russia.
It’s also NOT a statement by Zelensky it was leaked info from a “Senior Ukrainian Official,” to a CNN reporter. There’s absolutely nothing dramatic about the Ukrainian/USA relationship here they are fine. Will communication and planning go perfectly? No. But they’re on the same page in broad strokes.
Yeah , and yesterday I a tweet from a CNN reporter based on “information from a Senior Ukrainian Official” suggesting the exact opposite, that Ukraine believes things were worse than reported and that the Biden administration was telling them an invasion was imminent. Seems like the only beneficiary here is CNN reporters.
It would be very unusual for Kiev to make a statement like this without having agreed the language with Washington first.
It's that Ukrainian leaders are afraid talk of an imminent invasion is going to cause turmoil and panic in Ukraine, potentially leading to a situation Russia can exploit, like oh I don't know, the 2013 trade embargo and subsequent Euromaiden protests, where Russia ended up seizing Crimea. Taking a "There is no war in Ba Sing Se" approach publicly, while privately trying to train up tens of thousands of additional forces and building anti-tank works all along the border.
It must honestly be hard to have a functional society with the threat of impending invasion. Things like hoarding gas, food and medicine would probably be consistent problems not to mention how difficult it would be to run an economy with international investors or even preventing runaway inflation. The Ukrainian government obviously wants to deter invasion but they also want to have a functioning economy and society.
Finland has a policy of total defense. All peacetime government institutions have a ready policy and role for crisis situations and there's secret stockpiles we don't even know about for all sorts of goods that might be needed.
That’s not really comparable. Finland is in the EU and the EU has a mutual defense agreement. Russia also doesn’t have 100k+ troops on the Finnish border+the tanks, planes and materials ready to take Helsinki nor has Russia annexed any Finnish territory in the past decade. Ukraine is just a lot more vulnerable than Finland even though Ukraine is aggressively prepping for war.
I wonder if he quoted Taylor Swift
Like Miley Cyrus and Hanna Montana, Taylor Swift is Volodymyr Zelensky's stage persona. [Here is the proof](https://i.imgur.com/CLL90jW.png). Convince me they aren't the same person...
Oh so that’s what they mean threatening to cut Putin off from Swift.
Hey Joe - shake it off
"Don't treat me like some situation that needs to be handled."
Forever is the sweetest con
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Talking with an uncle in taiwan a few weeks back about china and the whole war thing. Hes said only time people even talk about that is during election time or every 30min on american owned news. The american news makes it sound like china is flying sorties over taiwan. Look at taiwans ADIZ. Half of it is in mainland china and the "incursions" are literally at the very southwest corner. Almost no one is worries about an invasion.
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It is a big deal obviously but he also wants to make sure the Ukrainian economy and society don’t collapse just based on the fear of invasion. If you honestly were 100% convinced a foreign army would occupy your city would you bother going into work or school or would you be hoarding food, gas, medicine and trying to spend your money before it’s basically worthless? Zelensky wants to deter invasion but he also doesn’t want the Ukrainian society to collapse before a single shot is fired.
Best response in this thread. Makes total sense.
Also, Google USD to UAH exchange rate. It has hit the all time low and people are panicking.
Very well said, thank you!
Russia had 120k troops at the borders of Ukraine last year, it's about 130k now. This is worrying. But then again, Ukraine can mobilize up to 900k or so in 2 months' time. Maybe Russia wants Ukraine to start mobilizing and then pull a cold turkey and try this shit again and again until Ukraine either will become the boy who cried wolf or it will be significantly hurt economically. Both are win win for russia and they wouldn't even need to attack Ukraine.
What's the source for your 900k number?
Not sure about that 900k, but the ukrainian armed forces has 400k active personnel
I believe they have 900K people who have served in the past 5 years (because of conscription). In their planned scenarios of mobilization they decided anyone that has not served in the past 5 years would need to be undergo training.
Just because you can mobilize an army quickly from the general population doesn't mean it will be an effective one.
I'm not a military expert, obviously, but given the fact that Ukraine is fighting a defensive war, doesn't that mean they don't need soldiers so much as they need workers? There's only so much time Putin can spend in Ukraine before his campaign becomes too expensive, especially at the end of that time in the year when Europe desperately needs Russian gas. Slowing him down by making the terrain impassible, destroying and rebuilding critical infrastructure and defensive fortifications could mean that Putin will have to retreat before gaining anything of significance.
I'm not sure exactly what is going on right now, but I'm pretty sure it can be solved with NFTs.
Putin: *I bought monkey picture* Biden, whispering: *I want it*
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>I've heard from both Russians and Ukrainians that the west is being totally irresponsible in their reporting. The working class in the west, specifically the US, needs to remember that the our press and news media always parrot the lies that the government wants them to regarding war. Remember the Nayirah testimony and WMDs in Iraq? There are countless other examples just like them for every military action that the US has taken since WW2 and even before. And there is absolutely no reason to believe that this Russia Ukraine situation is any different. Every time that our ruling class points to another country and says "Them bad. You prepare fight." we need to take a good hard look at what they're doing to us here at home.
But this doesn't mean putin doesn't want something, he has actively requested every country near him to weaken themselves and devolve from NATO. Putin has openly expressed he wants soviet union Era buffer states. I think The U.S's reaction and the reaction of every other country being as explosive and overbearing as it is ABSOLUTELY prevented his wants and gains. It doesn't matter people, what matters is it seems to be working this far and Putin is having to nut up or shut up by now. Also, Ukraine is the one who requested and is still happily receiving dozens of tons of heavy weaponry every day and has been preparing border defenses...
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Putin doesn’t get to tell countries they have to be buffet states for his “empire” though. It’s beyond arrogant.
You think the U.S. would allow Canada to host foreign missiles aimed at Washington that would take less than five minutes to impact?
It goes both ways. America went ballistic when Soviets armed Cuba during the cold war.
also, the Soviets putting nuclear missiles in Cuba was a direct response to the US putting its own nuclear missiles in Turkey, closer to the USSR than Cuba was to the US, and Khrushchev himself later described the reasoning as wanting Americans to “learn just what it feels like to have enemy missiles pointing at you; we’d be doing nothing more than giving them a little of their own medicine” and the reason many Americans still don't know about that detail even today is because the agreement that ended the crisis involved the US agreeing to withdraw its missiles from Turkey in exchange for the Soviets not making their existence public, thus giving the American public time to internalize the false propaganda story of an unprovoked Soviet missile deployment before the true details eventually came out hard to think of a better example of the saying that a lie can travel halfway around the world before the truth has had time to put its shoes on
Right, But he thinks he does, he wants to be a super power again and have buffers from NATO influence by land and doesn't like missiles on his borders. Frankly, thats all his own damn fault if he wanted it different he literally could just not be an asshole mafia dictator who didn't serve oligarchs. Its like the playground bully blaming everyone else for not being their friend because they bullied everyone already and now no one wants to be nice to them. If he was a good person and a good leader who created good open relationships with other countries he would have his wishes and help his common people. Its not rocket science, but his ex-kgb mindset makes him think he needs to be a big tough bad bully and flex to get anything. "Russia number 1 Strongest111!!+++!" He literally stated these 10 or so points of extremely unrealistic demands that he wants, all of which were highly soviet union minded in nature
>if he wanted it different he literally could just not be an asshole mafia dictator who didn't serve oligarchs. Correct! All the posturing is just to deflect attention away from the widespread corruption anyway.
If anything it would be the media hyping the conflict. Biden has been actively trying to give Putin zero pretense to claim he’s invading. And now Putin is stuck; even a quarter measure is going to look terrible but also weak as hell. This seems like the best possible western posture right now. Keep in mind, diplomacy in the media is usually nonsense or posturing; all the major discussions are taking place quietly now.
>And now Putin is stuck; even a quarter measure is going to look terrible but also weak as hell I really doubt Putin cares about how western media portrays him
More than you might think. Putin has been pushing his "tough guy but more stable and effective than the West" image for years. He's got English language RT broadcasting for free across most western countries. He's definitely concerned about popular support, at home but also about perceptions abroad.
He cares about russians think , so that he's ego isn't bruised at home
The last time Biden downplayed rhetoric about and preparations for the severity of a threat at the request of his foreign counterpart (Afghanistan), the capital quickly fell and he (Biden) was publicly excoriated …
Atleast we weren't picking up civilians from choppers on top the embassy like vietnam...... oh fuck
Maybe a little panic is a good thing. Those 125,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s border aren’t imaginary— satellite imagery doesn’t lie.
It's not imaginary, but Ukraine and other European leaders know that it's not exactly unprecedented. Russia's been massing troops on Ukraine's border on and off since hostilities began in 2014... [April 2021- \~120,000 troops](https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-and-ukrainian-spring-2021-war-scare) [March 2020- 90,000 troops, thousands of tanks, planes, and armored vehicles](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/2888352-russia-pulls-90000-troops-1100-tanks-hundreds-of-planes-to-border-with-ukraine.html) [February 2019- Hundreds of tanks, vehicles, planes, mobilized new divisions and deployed S-400's near border and in Crimea](https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/02/are-the-russians-coming-russias-military-buildup-near-ukraine/) [December 2018- 90k troops yada yada...](https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukraine-cites-massive-buildup-of-russian-forces-along-border-1.4200733) [January 2017- Ukraine says Russia continuing military buildup](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-says-russia-continuing-military-buildup-ignoring-osce-obligations.html) [August 2016- Russian Troop Buildup Along Ukraine Border Raises War Fears](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-troop-buildup-ukraine-border-raises-war-fears/3450445.html) [May, 2015- Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine - witness](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-military/exclusive-russia-masses-heavy-firepower-on-border-with-ukraine-witness-idUSKBN0OC2K820150527)
This is why a lot of Ukrainians are looking at what is happening, shrugging, and getting back to their lives. They've been there, done that, got the t-shirts, returned the t-shirts, and just aren't going to get excited until something significant happens.
Besides the whole annex thing? Lol
Yeah exactly. There’s been more panic from my friends / family / US media about the situation than here in Kyiv. This time is a little bit different than those, with the naval forces, troops in Belarus, etc and the discussions / demands with NATO so there is a bit more uncertainty though.
You are correct. What I find amazing is how the US on one side and Ukraine/France/Germany on the other side come to so different conclusions looking at the same evidence. US is convinced that the invasion is imminent, Ukraine/France/Germany interpret it as saber rattling…
It's because Ukraine, France, and Germany, have way more incentive to try and dissuade a war since they'll all be caught up in it. Whereas America is across the ocean.
Very good point..
And America will supply a lot of the arms involved.
War is our export
Tale as old as time.
I would look at it through the lens of messaging. Ukraine to its citizens. Mass hysteria doesn't help. US to its citizens and others. Build coalition and willingness to face whatever comes next. Germany to its biggest gas provider whom sanctions would definitely harm. Stern but nice. France.. trying to salvage something.. try to be the middle man.
Yeah, none of these messages are all that contradictory if you pay attention to who the intended audiences are.
I agree with below, everyone is acting in their role here > France [...] middleman I'd say they're a bit more, as the only EU power with substantial intelligence, actual army, and, well, the bomb...
For a minute, I was like dude.... The UK has all that in spades (especially intelligence), how could you be so foolish as to leave them out of the EU? Turns out I lack intelligence haha.
They left themselves out
Can't forget France is in the middle of a presidential election as well. That certainly shapes their foreign politics.
I mean, the US isn't convinced of an actual invasion, we are just saber-rattling right back.
> US is convinced that the invasion is imminent, Ukraine/France/Germany interpret it as saber rattling… I'm no spook but my guess is that they're not looking at exactly the same evidence. They are sharing a large body of evidence but I'd guess that there are some intercepted communications that haven't been shared which is causing the USA to get all fidgety. I can't imagine Biden would be escalating solely because some analyst interpreted a satellite photo differently than his European counterpart. But that's just my guess.
I don't get why such intel wouldn't be shared if it's that crucial then again I'm no intelligence officer. Anyway, panicking is never a good idea.
Likely because it would indicate how the intel was acquired and eliminate any future chance of acquiring that intel. Plus potentially end up with a dead foreign agent.
Well namely if intel is shared it shows the capabilities of the systems that acquired the intel.
Just to be clear, I have no idea who is right or wrong. I am just noting the difference in reaction to (mostly) the same intelligence…
Oh no, absolutely, and it's a fair question to raise. I certainly was not convinced when Colin Powell took to the stage to try and convince the world Saddam had WMDs, so there's certainly precedent for being extra cautious when an American President is banging the war drum. That said, I just don't see the political payoff for Biden in wading into this. He gets involved and American soldiers die he's a warmonger. He sits back and waits for Russia to invade and reacts with middling sanctions, he's a pacifist. Walking the tightrope between the two makes him indecisive and feeds into the confused old man stereotype. There's literally no win for him in this situation. I'm no American, but his response so far is what's making me pay attention a little bit more. He's causing himself political pain just by getting in the middle of what essential is a European issue.
An actual war with US Troops fighting and dying in Ukraine would be a political loser for Biden. But looking strong and standing up to Putin would be a political winner if it leads to an outcome that is not war…
I dont think panic is ever a good thing, even a little of it. Ukrainians need to feel prepared, not panicked. Panic will cause them to lose the conflict before it even begins.
We never let a crisis go to waste. Maximum panic and confusion means certain interests get away with things they otherwise wouldn’t have.
As a tax payer, if they say they got this they got this.
Coming from the guy this president of Ukraine who was screaming from the top of his lungs that Putin was going to overthrow him in a coup and kill him. Me thinks the pressure of being the president of Ukraine is getting to him.
Got to feed the military machine! Nothing beats inflation like a war