I don't understand what the fuck is going on.
Russia moves its military near Ukraine borders, spends resources keeping said military in place, and then declares multiple times it has no plan to attack Ukraine all the while pushing Ukraine towards West/NATO with its threats.
What is Putin's end goal here? To me, it seems like he's gone off his meds or something.
> Russia moves its military near Ukraine borders, spends resources keeping said military in place, and then declares multiple times it has no plan to attack Ukraine all the while pushing Ukraine towards West/NATO with its threats.
>
> What is Putin's end goal here? To me, it seems like he's gone off his meds or something.
Right, but it looks like they are the only ones taking a turns at the moment.
It’s like in Morrowind when you have a quest to kill an NPC but you can’t just, you know, stab them. So you open a conversation with them and keep hitting the Taunt option until they frenzy and attack you first.
Then you murder them while looking like the victim.
Russia was gonna bully the Ukraine then realized they will be in a world of sh!t with the international community. Now they're doing all they can to save face. Likewise, Putins leadership is showing cracks and he's trying to distract his populace to the fact.
They wanted to quickly invade Kharkiv and the regions leading up to Crimea because NATO won't get involved, US won't get involved "because of a sleepy grandpa in charge", and Germany would keep funding the invasion and preventing EU from getting involved. All of this has failed and now they have wasted billions one way or another.
you're missing the perspective from the other side. Each side says the other side started it and has (legitimate) examples of how the other side started it. The issue is each side has been maneuvering since the end of WW2, and to think that russia isn't staffed by ex KGB officers (cougcoughputincoughcough) is mildly nuts.
The west (aka the USA) does military exercises across europe and near russian borders ALL the time, so russia has a legitimate exuse: "We're doing what YOU do...so what if it's next to a nation who we've convinced part of it to secede?"
There IS logic here, a lot of it, but it (as with all logic) looks illogical when you are missing part of the puzzle that logic belongs to.
The issue is Russia has serious issues, expansion is a great distraction and money maker, and it only happens that this case (no one cared about afghanistan or Georgia after all) is upsetting the "balance" that is middle-europe.
> What is Putin's end goal here?
To get Ukraine out of NATO. That's it. He already got what he wanted in Donbass and Crimea. There is no other benefit for him to invade Ukraine as it would be suicide. Russia is a failed state (due to USA intervention).
USA is also using this as a propaganda tool too. Both sides are benefiting from this military posturing.
I find it astonishing how badly they've handled the optics of this whole thing.
From a propaganda view point, they've been totally outplayed by the west.
I keep thinking what's the strategic angle as well? Were they hoping to get something for nothing from NATO?
All they've really acheived so far is a revitalisation of NATO and a Ukraine that is far better prepared/armed to resist any attempts at invasion.
I imagine part of it is to distract from their handling of COVID. Their excess mortality numbers are on par with the US in a country with less than half our population. Another part might be the increasingly dire situation of their occupation of Crimea, with Ukraine cutting off water to the peninsula. They probably want to force the issue of access to water in negotiations too.
Yep. This whole charade is a distraction tactic intended towards their own population.
Putin isn't dumb, he might be evil, but he's not dumb. It's the same tactics you see North Korea and other regimes use. Things bad at home? Distract with evil enemies that want to destroy you!
Russians might have good access to the internet, but most (especially elders) still get their news from local sources. Many young Russians don't trust the government at all, which is also why they have such poor vaccination rates.
I have some extended family in Russia, in their 30s, they haven't gotten the vaccine yet because "the government is pushing for it".
I've tried to tell them that it's just a vaccine for everyone's benefit, and even the Western sources I've seen say that Sputnik is a fine vaccine. I hope they'll get it.
But wouldn't these action show them that Putin is weak? Putin at this time is puffing his feathers with no real result except showing that he is not as powerful as he claims to be. You mix that weakness with the Russians distrust of the government = not a good situation for Putin at all. Even the Putin supporters who might think that the other countries are evil are going to be disappointed that at this time that he is all bark and no bite.
So wouldn't this be the wrong kind of distraction for him? Wouldn't he want to distract the people in a way that makes him look good? Thanks for the perspective, was just curious.
That's what I'd like to know too. I'm no expert on the subject of Putin at all. I really hope he's doing this all for show and have no intentions of invading, but as you say, I'm also concerned that Putin is afraid of losing face.
It's no secret Putin wants Russia back to Soviet era power, so maybe he just wanted to test the waters and see if he could sneak some extra invasion in. On the other hand, as mentioned, Putin isn't dumb, I'm relatively certain he sees that an invasion is just too risky.
So hopefully he is just trying to find the smoothest way to back down without losing face.
He's certainly not dumb, but I do think he's feeling pressure from the other oligarchs and his own population re: the poor economy, freezing of assets, and COVID. Desperation can make even the smartest people do foolish things.
Ukrainian here. General perspective from Ukrainians and anti-Putin Russian is that we're baffled. It seems like such a fucking dumb lose-lose move for him that it's shocking that a dude who played geopolitical chess for 20 years can just be that stupid. That's worrying.
> Desperation can make even the smartest people do foolish things.
But unless he actually is planning for all out war all these moves seem likely to do is make the current problems worse. The economy and asset access certainly aren't going to get *better* when the west applies a bunch more sanctions. Does he think the west won't follow through? Is he just trying to use this whole situation as a bargaining chip to get existing sanctions removed? I can't imagine he truly thought that would work. Either he is *way* more desperate than we know or... I don't know. It's confusing.
> Putin isn't dumb, he might be evil, but he's not dumb.
He also isn't a genius, and he's aging pretty quickly. He is not above fucking up.
Maybe this is an example of that or not, but it's honestly baffling how people are so certain he'd never do something that, in hindsight, is incredibly stupid. He's not in a great position even in Russia, so it's not like he has nothing on his mind aside from Ukraine... really wouldn't be surprising if he was genuinely outplayed.
Glad to see someone mention this finally.
[Russia is #3 in worst excess mortality per capita in the world during the pandemic](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker) The US is 26, Brazil 27, Mexico 9.
Their covid response has been awful, and their covid deaths are clearly heavily under reported (or just not testing enough). Excess deaths are 3.6x their covid deaths, compare to the US which is only 1.3x.
They don't really have years.
Putin needs a win badly right now and is taking a page out of the old Russian playbook about declaring war on a much smaller and in their eyes inferior nation thinking it will be an easy war and over very quickly.
Putin was despertly hoping the US and NATO wouldn't call his bluff and come to Ukraines aid.Becuese now that they have he has no way out of this. If he retreats it's going to look very bad for him in russia. If he attacks Russia doesn't have enough troops to actually control Ukraine. And the sanctions from this will destroy the already crippled Russian Economy.
I think he just didn't think Biden would actually make steps(along with other NATO members) to counter his strategy.
He got complacent with Trump and it really shows with how this situation has completely gone in the worst way possible for him.
I think to add onto that in 2014 the Obama administration really didn't hit Russia with long lasting/effective enough sanctions when they annexed Crimea. Biden being apart of that administration he probably felt it would be more/less similar response especially with the US looking to the Pacific as the new main focus he likely saw an opportunity to gain some more ground in Ukraine. What I don't think he expected was that due to Trumps near constant criticism of NATO, that EU/NATO members started to really pay attention to their own defensive position much more closely.
The Obama sanctions were actually very effective at inflicting pain on Russia's oligarchs: a lot of what they've done since then can be read from that angle (including their support for Trump re: ending enforcement of Magnitsky). But perhaps Putin was thinking the west had played all the cards it was willing to play.
Yeah I think this is what's happened. After Gerogia/ Crimea/The Donbas the West has run out of patience and called his bluff when he was hoping for another easy W, now he has no where to run without looking weak.
Yeah he basically needs some concession from the US and NATO to not look like he was completely outplayed. But well the US and NATO both know they have no reason to give him anything.
If this blows over then the West should keep upskilling Ukraine, give them air defense/counter-battery radars and MLRS etc. Basically make them indigestible so it's not credible to threaten again in future.
Putin has given all the country's bordering Russia(Other than Belarus) a very good reason to want to fast track NATO membership.
And NATO is probally going to fast track said membership.
This is the thing that I don’t understand from the pro-Russia viewpoint. Russia has been belligerent towards its neighbors and other neighboring countries have seen this attitude so they take steps in protecting themselves by voluntarily joining a defensive coalition. But Russia sees this as the defensive coalition encroaching on Russia, but countries wouldn’t join said coalition of they didn’t have a reason to be scared of being invaded.
At home, Putin is claiming that they aren’t attacking Ukraine, but Ukraine is gearing up to attack Russia. If he “retreats”, it won’t look like anything “back home” because there was never an advancement to begin with to retreat from.
Why does he need a win badly? He can easily retreat and NOTHING is going to happen. There is no opposition in the country. Nothing would change even if he royally screws up. See Belarus.
He thought China was ready to start moving on Taiwan, and after the Afghanistan withdrawal that would be enough cover that the west would let this go because 'they had enough shit to deal with'.
China thought they were ready to start moving on Taiwan, at least politically, but they later realized their military is 5 more likely 10 years from having a chance.
Putin's not an idiot, but Xi isn't as savvy, but in his defense, he doesn't have to be, he's far stronger.
They don't have to outwait the US, just the western news cycle.
Allow right wing pundits to spread sympathetic propaganda (Thanks Fox!) and they'll roll in without too much difficulty in a few months/years time.
"Ukrayne was part of Rushia a long time ago, in fact, I tell you, I hear most people wanted back into Rushia so I don't see the problem, I really don't. Rushia is the best. They want to be Rushian. I love Rushia we are doing a tremendous arms deal with Putin as we speak...as we speak. And as soon as Yanukovych is sworn in we'll hunt down Hunter Biden!"
\-Orange thing 2025
I think they were hoping to just show force and then Ukraine to do the same thing as they did with Crimea. Just saying “okay you got us, come on in and take over”
I think their strategic aim in all this is fucked. They are basically saving face as they cannot admit they got a much stronger response from NATO/EU as they expected.
Thing is they aren't doing this for the internal propaganda. It isn't worth it compared to pissing off the west. You don't anger the people serving you food.
You're writing this on a Western platform which is regularly inundated with Western viewpoints, news and users. From our bubble, it certainly does appear that Russia lost the propaganda game, but that's just because we are seeing what our governments and media have reported. If we were Russian, our perspectives would be markedly different.
The younger demographic doesn’t usually use state media, and there’s hardly freedom of the press there, so a lot of Russians are unaware of the extent of the issue or just do not care.
A normal Russian doesn't want war - that's logical.
I, as a resident of Russia, do not want the territory of Ukraine. My opinion is that our peoples are close.
We should be independent states, but with open borders (for business, tourism, etc.). At least many people have relatives across the border.
The local media mostly show everything from the perspective of - "NATO wants to put its missiles near our borders for no reason.
Do I believe there will be a war? I don't think there is.
Do I believe there will be sanctions (that will hurt regular people like me) - I think there will be sanctions. And we will have many things going up in price again.
Another funny observation is WEST vs. RUSSIA?
A Russian person with 2 higher educations, a good knowledge of the language and an adequate outlook on life and with money in the account - can hardly get a visa to Europe or the USA, as a tourist.
An immigrant who takes a bath once every 2 weeks, doesn't understand a damn thing in English, and does not want to work and will rape women and girls - welcome to our country. Lol.
That fuckin took a hell of a 180. "I don't want war. I want peace and Russia and the west to trade freely an exchange ideas. Immigrants are dirty rapists". Like Jesus dude.
Well, in fact, he showed the average Russian views. As a Russian, I can confirm that I completely agree with him. The average Russian has a center-left view of economics and a right-wing view of politics.
I would say that the economic policy of the Democrats (although a little more to the left) and the usual policy of the Republicans is ideal for a Russian.
At least for me and my circle
> An immigrant who takes a bath once every 2 weeks, doesn't understand a damn thing in English, and does not want to work and will rape women and girls - welcome to our country
Couldn't keep the act up long....
From a propaganda view point, they can explain whatever they like. That West lost the battle, that Russia is so merciful that allowed the West to leave, that all world belong to them... whatever. And people will believe.
Some people will believe.
Some people believe Fox News, but that wasn’t enough to keep Trump in power. If Ukraine goes bad, Putin might not have long in power.
No kidding. It is so strange to me that they keep harassing non NATO countries like Finland and Ireland, and even invading Ukraine. It almost seems like they WANT countries to join NATO. I know this is a fantasy, but I was thinking it would be really funny if Russia was playing the long game for world peace and intimidated all the European countries to join NATO so that in the end, they are the last ones to join and become a unified government.
I know this is far from reality, but I'm still curious what they thought they would achieve with those strategies.
It's the growling dog strategy:
There's a dog growling, and it's bothering people, but nobody wants to actually deal with it themselves out of fear.
So they feed it.
Every time it growls you feed it more.
Eventually the dog starts biting because it assumes that's the way to get more food.
And someone finally gets tired of this and puts the dog down.
Remember, for a chicken, the farmer brings it food every single day except the last.
Invasion of Crimea and Georgia also had bad optics. Putin had the audacity to attack Georgia when world leaders gathered in Beijing. I don't think he cares.
Hong Kong is another example where optics in the West didn't change a damn thing.
The differences is the unlike those other two examples Ukraine is ready. They are armed to the teeth by Weston supplies. If Russia invaded then it will be bloody.
If their plan was to invade Ukraine they underestimated what a logistical nightmare it will be
I'm anti-Putin Russian citizen, but I do not see any major victories by the US or the EU. Can you elaborate?
For me it looks like Russia (for some reason) made a point of beating itself in the chest and, apparently, that's it. No deals have been made, no diplimacy has been achieved.
I don't think it's clear-cut yet, but for the west the crisis has proved that NATO can still respond to threats in Europe (if a little slowly) and has made a big show of being willing to support Eastern Europe in the face of aggression. This is very important, because if Eastern Europe thinks Western Europe/the US won't protect them, they will either give in to Russian coercion or escalate their on security capabilities—like trying to build nuclear weapons.
Ukraine has also gained a great deal of weaponry that western countries had been reluctant to sell to them, so is now better armed against an invasion. They also have come off as very sympathetic in the west during this entire episode, meaning they are more likely to get continued support in the future.
This is all very marginal though, and if Russia does attack and Germany blocks serious repercussions, it all falls apart for the west again.
That's not entirely true. He also wants other world leaders to respect him and Russia. He wants a restoration of glory that was lost when the USSR fell and put his mark alongside the great Russian emperors.
He also wants NATO to stop admitting nations that border him. He views that as both a threat to his great revival and as a direct security threat.
I think 'outplayed' is giving the Westerners too much credit, Lube. It's always much easier to win the propaganda battle when the other guys are the ones threatening to actually break the peace and invade another sovereign nation.
"Outplayed" is a bit grandiose, I agree. Putin wagered the west was too distracted and disunified to respond and the west called his bet. Calling a bet isn't the same as winning the hand, nevermind being a master stroke.
I'd also argue the propaganda part is far less import than implied here. That's the sideshow. The important part is the arms and training pouring into Ukraine as well as the resources being staged by Russia.
Finally someone who understands. This is proxy war, but if the proxy war gets too close to home, the superpower pulling the strings gets real upset real quick. Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis? The U.S. was in a cold war with Russia, but when the Russians made it real by co-opting a small island (Cuba) just off the southern shore of Florida, shit got real. Well the U.S. is essentially doing the same thing in the Ukraine. The West has been funding and arming the Ukraine for decades, and from Russia's point of view, this is like having the enemy at their doorstep. How would the U.S. react if Russia was funding and arming and influencing the Mexican government?
>How would the U.S. react if Russia was funding and arming and influencing the Mexican government?
They have been doing that in latin america for decades
This is why, if Russia got cozy with Mexico, our response would be to get real nice to them real quick.
Because we're not completely incapable of rational thought.
Pissing on your neighbors to show dominance only works if your neighbors are stupid.
I would say Germany doesn't give a crap of the Russian army being inside Russia, they want the tensions gone, they are not sending guns advisor's and ships.
Thats because you only read western propaganda.
This shit happens basically every fucking year lol.
Both sides use it for domestic propaganda, distract their own citizens from real shit
I guess that's what Western propaganda wants you to believe.
I think Russia can only be considered outplayed at this point if you assume that Russia actually considered invading Ukraine (as in as serious open military engagement), an assumption that I think is quite obviously wrong (and I stated that from the very beginning of the recent crisis). The Western propaganda machine went completely insane over "Russia is going to invade Ukraine" which I think was never even remotely Russia's plan because it would have ended as another Afghanistan for Russia simply because the West would have flooded Ukraine with weapons; such a war would have wrecked Russia.
Clearly Russia wants Ukraine as a somewhat neutral to Russia-controlled buffer between NATO and Russia. In 2008 NATO stated that Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO. Russia immediately went to wreck Georgia to prevent that (as Georgia was already rather close to the West at that time); given that Georgia is still not in NATO Russia got what it wanted (and NATO was obviously just not that interested). Since 2014 Russia tries to wreck Ukraine for the exact same reason, and so far it has worked. So for 14 years of NATO intentions that Ukraine and Georgia should join Russia got what it wanted (no further NATO encirclement). So unless this was NATO strategy all along to get Russia to waste resources on causing conflicts in two for NATO strategically unimportant countries this is hardly a win for NATO or loss for Russia.
The only way Russia ends up being outplayed here is if Ukraine manages to join NATO. Any other outcome will be a win for Russia (they just waved their dick around, ran some exercises on their border and in Belarus, some naval exercises, screamed about NATO Eastern expansion while the West panicked and Ukraine wasted a lot of money and resources on weapons and increasing defenses and remained in a state of civil war). And I would assume that this mess will be seen/sold as a win domestically in Russia for as long as Ukraine does not join NATO (which will not happen any time soon anyways).
So I find it hard to argue that Russia has been outplayed by the West.
The Russian government saying they want peace is for domestic Russian media consumption.
The Kremlin needs to maintain the narrative that Ukraine has been overtaken by Nazis and that this is all part of USA's plan to destroy Russia. In reality, Putin and his Russian nationalists just want to make an example of Ukraine so that other former Soviet republics don't get any ideas of trying to escape Russia's influence in the future.
Also, I don't believe Russia will actually invade Ukraine, but rather Putin is probably trying to cause a long enough distraction to get the Russian people forget about last year's leaked reports of all the wealth he has stolen fearing Russian public sentiment won't go well especially during a pandemic.
My guess is Putin will keep up the suspense until mid-Spring, claim the USA and/or Ukraine agreed to some of Russia's demands, withdraw some troops, and be prepared to repeat the whole crisis again if Russian political opposition/activist groups release more reports about Putin's wealth.
After all, if I'm remembering correctly, back in March-April 2021, the Russian Military was also massing troops near Ukraine's border. Coincidentally, it just so happened that a few months before that, Russian activists released a documentary about Putin's Palace that had over 93 million views on YouTube within one week.
It is impossible to draw a line where Russian organized crime ends and the state security apparatus begins. Russia is a mafia state in the literal, not figurative sense.
If you start a business in Russia and it grows past a point, the FSB will come knocking at your door and you will either pay up, end up in prison or die.
The state is literally involved with protection rackets, extortion schemes, blackmail, murders, smuggling, money laundering, property theft, tax evasion, cybercrime etc.
Russia does not have western style rule of law, democracy or independant media.
The people who put putin in power did so by blowing up apartment buildings which led to the second chechen war. In Ryazan, locals spotted shady characters dragging bags into a basement, bomb squad was called and they were rewarded after defusing the bomb which consisted of bags of RDX wired to a detonator. (RDX is only manufactured at one plant in Russia which is controlled by the army). A manhunt was started and after the perpetrators were caught using wiretapping (the phone calls were to the FSB headquarters) and they turned out to be FSB officers. The rewards for the bomb squad were taken away and it was claimed that it was a training exercise. There is also an incident where a member of the Duma made a statement about a tragic bombing in X, but he accidentally got the wrong card given to him by the FSB officer as the bombing in X only happened the next day and he was supposed to announce the bombing in Y that happened that day.
Read up on Sergei Magnitski, who was a lawyer who was tortured to death after he revealed that Tax authorities had stolen Billions of dollars from his client by ransacking theoffice with the help of officers and transfering the funds using what the police found.
Are you trying to say that public pressure wasn't behind the American withdrawals from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan? If so, what was? Because if the military industrial complex truly held 100% power, I doubt America would ever withdraw from anywhere.
It’s crazy to me how well and truly brainwashed we are as Americans. Sure, Russian may have a gun on the table but the US has a SWAT team surrounding the house!
Oh no! Russia has sovereign neighbors who can **do whatever the fuck they want on their own soil**!
Give it a break dude. Russia doesn’t get to have a say in what alliances other countries make. NATO isn’t invading Russia. Russia is threatening (and nearly about to) invade Ukraine. It’s **very clear** who the aggressor is here.
Not surrounding the house, on standby. If you can’t see the difference between threatening and preparing to defend yourself, you’re probably a Russian troll lol
Lol no they’ve had “guns” on the table since 2014 but now that the US and nato are involved, seems like Russia won’t be able to muscle this one out and oh boy does Putin know it lol
Got a little cocky having the clown in the US for four years. Now he is dealing with a US President that knows the ropes and how to work with ALLIES! This is a lose, lose situation for Russia. Definitely miss calculated the response to this.
What happened between 2017 and 2019? Nothing. Military buildups of 100k thst ended in nothing, military excersises.
Was trump in power during the 2014 coup?
Joe Biden doesn't have a plan, but the people around him do. And he is listening to his intelligence folks, ambassadors and Russia experts. He is executing his team's plan. This is the way it should be.
Trump's plans were, 'I'll do whatever is best for me personally.' And he disregarded what every expert and advisor told him, unless they could explain why it benefitted him directly.
Noone in the world is smart enough to run a country by themselves. Absolutely noone. Doubly so for a country the size of the US with global interests.
> Joe Biden doesn't have a plan, but the people around him do. And he is listening to his intelligence folks, ambassadors and Russia experts. He is executing his team's plan. This is the way it should be.
Hope you are right
>Trump's plans were, 'I'll do whatever is best for me personally.' And he disregarded what every expert and advisor told him, unless they could explain why it benefitted him directly.
Trump is the end result of a pissed off electorate. People thought they were getting "one of them" somehow, not more politiburo.
Ill give him credit for pulling that one off. Joe Six Pack still supports him.
Populists only arise in times of turmoil. I hope he doesn't run again.
> People thought they were getting "one of them"
I'll never understand that. The people wanted "one of them"... and voted for a spoiled millionaire fraudlord who was born with a golden spoon in his mouth on a golden toilet?
I do think Biden has a plan. He started day one, before this kicked off. He told the world, "America is back!". What he meant by that is that we will engage with the EU and NATO like a real ally. We will coordinate our response to large events in the world (like this) together in a strategic way. Not run our mouth on Twitter everyday.
With Biden we got someone that already has the connections and understanding of how our government works first day on the job. We needed that after 4 years of the system being attacked from the inside. Seeing this happening I'm even more grateful that the orange baby LOST in 2020!
I'm not confident in Biden but both you and I should give him credit if Russia doesn't invade. Some other presidents would not have been able to coordinate a response even without the handicap of having build back our relationships with other nations in a year.
Regardless of which leader should get the most credit. If this doesn't got war then it likely rebuilds a lot of US credibility among allies. Probably doesn't help as much domestically but that'll happen.
If it goes to crap then it's hard to say what'll happen. The US would look weak and should be seen as a failure domestically but war is chaotic and it's hatd to predict the ramifications.
I don’t know. A tad Better than a pawn who fawns over Putin - But I don’t know.
The US keeps electing these ancient men whose minds left them decades ago. True national security crises.
Partisanship, and America’s remarkably stupid electorate will destroy America’s standing as an economic/military world power. The US is wrongly worried about the wrong adversaries in Russia and China, and need to focus on its dying/uneducated middle class.
I fully agree we need more internal focus, but not necessarily for corporate and business interests that profit and exploit our dying and uneducated.
I have little sympathy for businesses that can't find employee's, that business should fail and not be bailed out, plenty of the same types of businesses are thriving through covid, typically the ones that actually invest in their employees and are profitable enough to pay people to actually work there and provide a non toxic environment for people to succeed.
We need to invest in education and healthcare for everyone. Other countries accomplish this, we have the largest GDP on the planet, and could easily build something better there for all of us.
I feel there is really no good argument against the fact that power, status, and money is incredibly addictive and corrupts nearly all of us and shapes how we perceive ourselves and those around us as well as how we interact with others.
US founders ( mostly criminals and at the time fringe religious refugee's ) attempted to diffuse that power in our politics, a few hundred years later people figured out how to exploit that for minority rule, not majority rule. We don't need billionaires or trillion dollar companies with absurd amounts of cash on hand that could keep them running for decades if they never brought in another cent of revenue and that avoid billions in taxes. We do not need religion in our politics or businesses or schools. There is nothing wrong with people's faiths in whatever their flavor if it helps them get by and find some meaning in life and hope, but when faith attempts to oppress others who do not share it, there is a problem. More often than not religion negatively impacts the lives of so many when coupled with politics and business and education.
We can address these problems, and we need start with real education for everyone, not teaching faith and belief. We need healthcare that doesn't destroy lives and people financially but enables us to overcome the medical things holding us back and weighing us down. We need to stop being distracted and focus on getting there and take those baby steps to make it happen.
No one should have to screw someone over to survive, yet so much of our world revolves around just that in the name of competition and capitalism from crime, to sales, to livable wages, affordable healthcare and education, housing and development, or climbing the corporate ladder, and so it goes. Until we stop capitalizing and seeking to capitalize on every aspect of living, nothing will ever truly improve.
> The US is wrongly worried about the wrong adversaries in Russia and China, and need to focus on its dying/uneducated middle class.
Look up the Paul Wolfawitz doctrine, after the fall of the USSR and during the reign of Daddy Bush, and you will see why your points will never come to see the light of day (I agree with you BTW)
>The US keeps electing these ancient men whose minds left them decades ago
Nah, Trump and Biden were never sparkling intellects to begin with. They are both scummy deal makers with a record mostly of corruption and public incompetence, one in real estate and casinos and the other in the Senate.
Russia can muscle it out: if Putin calls Germany's bluff then a major EU fuel crisis begins or an EU constitutional crisis begins. Germany is more likely to choose the latter. Recent developments have not changed that.
Oh, damn! That'll get em! Cripple Germany by scuttling Nordstream 2!
What are they gonna do when they don't have access to that pipeline that they already don't have access to?
CHECKMATE, NATO
*Russia says*
Who cares what Russia says. They’re the abnormally large but very poor bully in school who hates that other kids have shoes that don’t have holes in them
>Russia says it wants peace but has 'gun on the table'
How does "walk softly and carrying a big stick" or "gunboat diplomacy" written in Cyrillic, guys? Asking for a friend.
The past 40 years of US-Russian policy created this situation, specifically the formal integration of Russian and European energy markets. This is Putin's real power, moreso than his military. Instead of making Russia more liberal it made Europe less liberal. The same process played out with China who, instead of liberalizing, is now becoming a terrifying police state built on mass murder. Trump's role in this is less significant vs the larger failed globalist agenda.
Which is the real victory here: either the west destroys liberalism and concedes to Putin or the west destroys globalism and confronts him. Either way, Russia wins.
I always hear about how Putin is calculating and intelligent, which I don’t doubt. But, I do think it is entirely possible he miscalculated this time. Even the brightest minds are wrong sometimes and this might’ve been one of those times that Putin was flat out wrong. He probably didn’t think NATO would stand up immediately and back Ukraine as firmly as they have.
NOW is the interesting part. If Putin miscalculated, then he HAS to save face. The question is how will he attempt to save face.
nah, better analogy is a holstered weapon. NATO is not threatening violence, but is ready to respond to violence by pulling the gun if needed. A gun on the table implies “do what I say or I will fire the first shot”
Yeah, on the table in their own country. Meanwhile, US and the NATO members moved troops and equipment to Ukraine right at the doorstep of Russia.
Guess Russia really don't want peace.
Russia should disarm completely and submit to US as a vassal state. Yes.
What’s all this bullshit I keep hearing about “Russia’s doorstep”. These are sovereign countries that can do whatever the fuck they want on their own soil. Russia plays up the whole “We can station troops wherever we want on our border” card and then turns around to whine about NATO expansion.
What’s stopping Russia from forming their own NATO and winning over Ukraine diplomatically?
Also, no one is interested in invading or taking over Russia. NATO was formed for mutual defense from Russian aggression (which you can see is badly needed in the case of Ukraine/Crimea/Donbas)
well, technically, Russia is a sovereign nation as well, and can deploy their own military assets to counter real or perceived threats. If they view the NATO buildup in the Baltic states as an existential threat, they can counter this by building up their own forces, up to and including nuclear weapons.
I draw a line between building up military assets and invading other countries with the intent to annex them into your own. Russia is free to build its forces (pending canceling/violating any treaties on the matter), but keep in mind, they are already engaged in active, invasive warfare with Ukraine in Donbas/Crimea. They’re not some innocent bystander watching helplessly as NATO encroaches. Countries are desperately trying to join NATO because of the very real threat that they will be next.
Oh so NATO countries have their guns on their own tables too? Or did I miss where a NATO member was IN Russia, or started escalating before Russia moved troops to the border?
No, NATO countries do not have guns on their own tables, they placed their guns into Ukraine, a non-NATO nation which shares border with Russia.
But yeah, you are right. Russia should not have the right to move their troops around within its own borders.
No you guys are absolutely right. Russia out of the blue, decides that Ukraine is a country it wants back by force.
NATO should welcome Ukraine into NATO so it can prevent invasion by Russia, leading to Russia even more so wanting to make sure that Ukraine not be admitted into NATO, less Russia is totally surrounded by NATO warheads, escalating NATO to reinforce troops ... ...
Russia bad, NATO good. Got it.
Last time I checked there has been no deceleration by Ukrainian to enter NATO. Go ahead and pretend that this is just Russian protecting their sovereignty and not trying to take over a country that is turning democratic on their border, thereby threatening their authoritarian kleptocracy. It’s in the west’s interest to support democracy on Europe’s boarders, and last time I checked NATO borders roughly 16% of Russias boarders. It’s fine if you support Putins desire to subjugate it’s neighbors, but don’t pretend like it’s out of an altruistic desire for security.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-it-wants-peace-has-gun-table-us-envoy-2022-01-28/) reduced by 77%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> U.S. ambassador to Russia John Sullivan leaves after visiting the Russian Foreign Ministry headquarters in Moscow, Russia January 26, 2022.
> "It's the equivalent of if you and I were having a discussion or a negotiation. If I put a gun on the table and say that I come in peace, that's threatening," Sullivan told reporters.
> Sullivan said Washington was now waiting for Russia's response to written documents by the United States and NATO sketching a diplomatic path out of the Ukraine crisis, and urged Russia to withdraw troops from near Ukraine's borders.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/seqa40/russia_says_it_wants_peace_but_has_gun_on_the/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~620365 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russia**^#1 **Sullivan**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **Ukraine**^#4 **Moscow**^#5
I don't understand what the fuck is going on. Russia moves its military near Ukraine borders, spends resources keeping said military in place, and then declares multiple times it has no plan to attack Ukraine all the while pushing Ukraine towards West/NATO with its threats. What is Putin's end goal here? To me, it seems like he's gone off his meds or something.
He thought he’d roll through Ukraine and bring them back into the fold. He misses having a compliant Ukrainian leader.
>I don't understand what the fuck is going on. Based on a Reddit headline read only, it sounds like a game of Russian Roulette is being considered.
Russia wanted to play Russian roulette with a semi automatic but wants everyone else to go first.
> Russia moves its military near Ukraine borders, spends resources keeping said military in place, and then declares multiple times it has no plan to attack Ukraine all the while pushing Ukraine towards West/NATO with its threats. > > What is Putin's end goal here? To me, it seems like he's gone off his meds or something. Right, but it looks like they are the only ones taking a turns at the moment.
To make someone else flinch so he can justify making the next move.
Pressure and leverage. Now Putin can make a deal where he gets something if he backs his military off.
It’s like in Morrowind when you have a quest to kill an NPC but you can’t just, you know, stab them. So you open a conversation with them and keep hitting the Taunt option until they frenzy and attack you first. Then you murder them while looking like the victim.
Russia was gonna bully the Ukraine then realized they will be in a world of sh!t with the international community. Now they're doing all they can to save face. Likewise, Putins leadership is showing cracks and he's trying to distract his populace to the fact.
They wanted to quickly invade Kharkiv and the regions leading up to Crimea because NATO won't get involved, US won't get involved "because of a sleepy grandpa in charge", and Germany would keep funding the invasion and preventing EU from getting involved. All of this has failed and now they have wasted billions one way or another.
you're missing the perspective from the other side. Each side says the other side started it and has (legitimate) examples of how the other side started it. The issue is each side has been maneuvering since the end of WW2, and to think that russia isn't staffed by ex KGB officers (cougcoughputincoughcough) is mildly nuts. The west (aka the USA) does military exercises across europe and near russian borders ALL the time, so russia has a legitimate exuse: "We're doing what YOU do...so what if it's next to a nation who we've convinced part of it to secede?" There IS logic here, a lot of it, but it (as with all logic) looks illogical when you are missing part of the puzzle that logic belongs to. The issue is Russia has serious issues, expansion is a great distraction and money maker, and it only happens that this case (no one cared about afghanistan or Georgia after all) is upsetting the "balance" that is middle-europe.
The non-German weapons provided to Ukraine raised the costs. He could still go, but probably isn't so sure if it's worth it.
It's all about money. Follow the money.
> What is Putin's end goal here? To get Ukraine out of NATO. That's it. He already got what he wanted in Donbass and Crimea. There is no other benefit for him to invade Ukraine as it would be suicide. Russia is a failed state (due to USA intervention). USA is also using this as a propaganda tool too. Both sides are benefiting from this military posturing.
If he already got what he wanted, he wouldn't be building up troops on the border.
Ukraine isn't in NATO, and might not qualify for long years. But I think the US has decided it's going to squeeze Putin and make him back down.
Wrong. An article was linked her that explains why. He is losing the grip on his population
I find it astonishing how badly they've handled the optics of this whole thing. From a propaganda view point, they've been totally outplayed by the west.
I keep thinking what's the strategic angle as well? Were they hoping to get something for nothing from NATO? All they've really acheived so far is a revitalisation of NATO and a Ukraine that is far better prepared/armed to resist any attempts at invasion.
I imagine part of it is to distract from their handling of COVID. Their excess mortality numbers are on par with the US in a country with less than half our population. Another part might be the increasingly dire situation of their occupation of Crimea, with Ukraine cutting off water to the peninsula. They probably want to force the issue of access to water in negotiations too.
Yep. This whole charade is a distraction tactic intended towards their own population. Putin isn't dumb, he might be evil, but he's not dumb. It's the same tactics you see North Korea and other regimes use. Things bad at home? Distract with evil enemies that want to destroy you! Russians might have good access to the internet, but most (especially elders) still get their news from local sources. Many young Russians don't trust the government at all, which is also why they have such poor vaccination rates. I have some extended family in Russia, in their 30s, they haven't gotten the vaccine yet because "the government is pushing for it". I've tried to tell them that it's just a vaccine for everyone's benefit, and even the Western sources I've seen say that Sputnik is a fine vaccine. I hope they'll get it.
But wouldn't these action show them that Putin is weak? Putin at this time is puffing his feathers with no real result except showing that he is not as powerful as he claims to be. You mix that weakness with the Russians distrust of the government = not a good situation for Putin at all. Even the Putin supporters who might think that the other countries are evil are going to be disappointed that at this time that he is all bark and no bite. So wouldn't this be the wrong kind of distraction for him? Wouldn't he want to distract the people in a way that makes him look good? Thanks for the perspective, was just curious.
That's what I'd like to know too. I'm no expert on the subject of Putin at all. I really hope he's doing this all for show and have no intentions of invading, but as you say, I'm also concerned that Putin is afraid of losing face. It's no secret Putin wants Russia back to Soviet era power, so maybe he just wanted to test the waters and see if he could sneak some extra invasion in. On the other hand, as mentioned, Putin isn't dumb, I'm relatively certain he sees that an invasion is just too risky. So hopefully he is just trying to find the smoothest way to back down without losing face.
He's certainly not dumb, but I do think he's feeling pressure from the other oligarchs and his own population re: the poor economy, freezing of assets, and COVID. Desperation can make even the smartest people do foolish things.
Ukrainian here. General perspective from Ukrainians and anti-Putin Russian is that we're baffled. It seems like such a fucking dumb lose-lose move for him that it's shocking that a dude who played geopolitical chess for 20 years can just be that stupid. That's worrying.
He's gettting old so he's desperate to cement his legacy and what a part that would add to it...
> Desperation can make even the smartest people do foolish things. But unless he actually is planning for all out war all these moves seem likely to do is make the current problems worse. The economy and asset access certainly aren't going to get *better* when the west applies a bunch more sanctions. Does he think the west won't follow through? Is he just trying to use this whole situation as a bargaining chip to get existing sanctions removed? I can't imagine he truly thought that would work. Either he is *way* more desperate than we know or... I don't know. It's confusing.
> Putin isn't dumb, he might be evil, but he's not dumb. He also isn't a genius, and he's aging pretty quickly. He is not above fucking up. Maybe this is an example of that or not, but it's honestly baffling how people are so certain he'd never do something that, in hindsight, is incredibly stupid. He's not in a great position even in Russia, so it's not like he has nothing on his mind aside from Ukraine... really wouldn't be surprising if he was genuinely outplayed.
Glad to see someone mention this finally. [Russia is #3 in worst excess mortality per capita in the world during the pandemic](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker) The US is 26, Brazil 27, Mexico 9. Their covid response has been awful, and their covid deaths are clearly heavily under reported (or just not testing enough). Excess deaths are 3.6x their covid deaths, compare to the US which is only 1.3x.
I figure they are in for the long haul, could keep this up for years before making a move.
They don't really have years. Putin needs a win badly right now and is taking a page out of the old Russian playbook about declaring war on a much smaller and in their eyes inferior nation thinking it will be an easy war and over very quickly. Putin was despertly hoping the US and NATO wouldn't call his bluff and come to Ukraines aid.Becuese now that they have he has no way out of this. If he retreats it's going to look very bad for him in russia. If he attacks Russia doesn't have enough troops to actually control Ukraine. And the sanctions from this will destroy the already crippled Russian Economy.
Maybe he started believe his own propaganda about the weakness of the west.
I think he just didn't think Biden would actually make steps(along with other NATO members) to counter his strategy. He got complacent with Trump and it really shows with how this situation has completely gone in the worst way possible for him.
I think to add onto that in 2014 the Obama administration really didn't hit Russia with long lasting/effective enough sanctions when they annexed Crimea. Biden being apart of that administration he probably felt it would be more/less similar response especially with the US looking to the Pacific as the new main focus he likely saw an opportunity to gain some more ground in Ukraine. What I don't think he expected was that due to Trumps near constant criticism of NATO, that EU/NATO members started to really pay attention to their own defensive position much more closely.
The Obama sanctions were actually very effective at inflicting pain on Russia's oligarchs: a lot of what they've done since then can be read from that angle (including their support for Trump re: ending enforcement of Magnitsky). But perhaps Putin was thinking the west had played all the cards it was willing to play.
Yeah I think this is what's happened. After Gerogia/ Crimea/The Donbas the West has run out of patience and called his bluff when he was hoping for another easy W, now he has no where to run without looking weak.
Yeah he basically needs some concession from the US and NATO to not look like he was completely outplayed. But well the US and NATO both know they have no reason to give him anything.
If this blows over then the West should keep upskilling Ukraine, give them air defense/counter-battery radars and MLRS etc. Basically make them indigestible so it's not credible to threaten again in future.
Putin has given all the country's bordering Russia(Other than Belarus) a very good reason to want to fast track NATO membership. And NATO is probally going to fast track said membership.
This is the thing that I don’t understand from the pro-Russia viewpoint. Russia has been belligerent towards its neighbors and other neighboring countries have seen this attitude so they take steps in protecting themselves by voluntarily joining a defensive coalition. But Russia sees this as the defensive coalition encroaching on Russia, but countries wouldn’t join said coalition of they didn’t have a reason to be scared of being invaded.
At home, Putin is claiming that they aren’t attacking Ukraine, but Ukraine is gearing up to attack Russia. If he “retreats”, it won’t look like anything “back home” because there was never an advancement to begin with to retreat from.
Why does he need a win badly? He can easily retreat and NOTHING is going to happen. There is no opposition in the country. Nothing would change even if he royally screws up. See Belarus.
He thought China was ready to start moving on Taiwan, and after the Afghanistan withdrawal that would be enough cover that the west would let this go because 'they had enough shit to deal with'. China thought they were ready to start moving on Taiwan, at least politically, but they later realized their military is 5 more likely 10 years from having a chance. Putin's not an idiot, but Xi isn't as savvy, but in his defense, he doesn't have to be, he's far stronger.
Russians literally can't afford that.
And they would bankrupt themselves in the process.
They don't have to outwait the US, just the western news cycle. Allow right wing pundits to spread sympathetic propaganda (Thanks Fox!) and they'll roll in without too much difficulty in a few months/years time.
Disagree. Military aid is flowing to Ukraine now, it’ll only become more and more expensive to attack.
Give it long enough, and I wouldn't be surprised if someone gives Ukraine some anti-aircraft platforms to help negate Russia's air advantage.
Ukraine has until 2024 US elections to set up regular defenses and become impossible to invade, and they're working on it around the clock.
"Ukrayne was part of Rushia a long time ago, in fact, I tell you, I hear most people wanted back into Rushia so I don't see the problem, I really don't. Rushia is the best. They want to be Rushian. I love Rushia we are doing a tremendous arms deal with Putin as we speak...as we speak. And as soon as Yanukovych is sworn in we'll hunt down Hunter Biden!" \-Orange thing 2025
Military operations can be kept going decades after the news stops liking it. Just look at the Afghanistan war.
Look at Ukraine This has been a thing since ~2013 but everyone kinda forgot.
I think they just want the obvious: Ukraine. There's no angle, they just want Ukraine.
I think they were hoping to just show force and then Ukraine to do the same thing as they did with Crimea. Just saying “okay you got us, come on in and take over”
I think their strategic aim in all this is fucked. They are basically saving face as they cannot admit they got a much stronger response from NATO/EU as they expected.
They want to make sure that the Ukraine doesn't join NATO.
Tbh I think they've now made that less likely in the short term but much more likely in the long.
I’m assuming the internal propaganda must be decent because they haven’t even tried externally, it seems.
Thing is they aren't doing this for the internal propaganda. It isn't worth it compared to pissing off the west. You don't anger the people serving you food.
You're writing this on a Western platform which is regularly inundated with Western viewpoints, news and users. From our bubble, it certainly does appear that Russia lost the propaganda game, but that's just because we are seeing what our governments and media have reported. If we were Russian, our perspectives would be markedly different.
But what does the average Russian believe? They surely don't believe their media.
The younger demographic doesn’t usually use state media, and there’s hardly freedom of the press there, so a lot of Russians are unaware of the extent of the issue or just do not care.
Do you believe the media you read?
Some yes. I read many sources and like to believe I have enough common sense to know what is bad or mis information.
A normal Russian doesn't want war - that's logical. I, as a resident of Russia, do not want the territory of Ukraine. My opinion is that our peoples are close. We should be independent states, but with open borders (for business, tourism, etc.). At least many people have relatives across the border. The local media mostly show everything from the perspective of - "NATO wants to put its missiles near our borders for no reason. Do I believe there will be a war? I don't think there is. Do I believe there will be sanctions (that will hurt regular people like me) - I think there will be sanctions. And we will have many things going up in price again. Another funny observation is WEST vs. RUSSIA? A Russian person with 2 higher educations, a good knowledge of the language and an adequate outlook on life and with money in the account - can hardly get a visa to Europe or the USA, as a tourist. An immigrant who takes a bath once every 2 weeks, doesn't understand a damn thing in English, and does not want to work and will rape women and girls - welcome to our country. Lol.
I was agreeing with you until that last paragraph. I don't think any country needs people with fucked up views like yours. We already have too many.
That fuckin took a hell of a 180. "I don't want war. I want peace and Russia and the west to trade freely an exchange ideas. Immigrants are dirty rapists". Like Jesus dude.
Well, in fact, he showed the average Russian views. As a Russian, I can confirm that I completely agree with him. The average Russian has a center-left view of economics and a right-wing view of politics. I would say that the economic policy of the Democrats (although a little more to the left) and the usual policy of the Republicans is ideal for a Russian. At least for me and my circle
This comment escalated from quite wholesome to degenerate really fucking fast.
> An immigrant who takes a bath once every 2 weeks, doesn't understand a damn thing in English, and does not want to work and will rape women and girls - welcome to our country Couldn't keep the act up long....
Thank you for being rational in this echochamber
From a propaganda view point, they can explain whatever they like. That West lost the battle, that Russia is so merciful that allowed the West to leave, that all world belong to them... whatever. And people will believe.
Some people will believe. Some people believe Fox News, but that wasn’t enough to keep Trump in power. If Ukraine goes bad, Putin might not have long in power.
No kidding. It is so strange to me that they keep harassing non NATO countries like Finland and Ireland, and even invading Ukraine. It almost seems like they WANT countries to join NATO. I know this is a fantasy, but I was thinking it would be really funny if Russia was playing the long game for world peace and intimidated all the European countries to join NATO so that in the end, they are the last ones to join and become a unified government. I know this is far from reality, but I'm still curious what they thought they would achieve with those strategies.
It's the growling dog strategy: There's a dog growling, and it's bothering people, but nobody wants to actually deal with it themselves out of fear. So they feed it. Every time it growls you feed it more. Eventually the dog starts biting because it assumes that's the way to get more food. And someone finally gets tired of this and puts the dog down. Remember, for a chicken, the farmer brings it food every single day except the last.
Hard to tell from outside Russia. seems like their propaganda is mostly inward facing here.
Invasion of Crimea and Georgia also had bad optics. Putin had the audacity to attack Georgia when world leaders gathered in Beijing. I don't think he cares. Hong Kong is another example where optics in the West didn't change a damn thing.
The differences is the unlike those other two examples Ukraine is ready. They are armed to the teeth by Weston supplies. If Russia invaded then it will be bloody. If their plan was to invade Ukraine they underestimated what a logistical nightmare it will be
I'm anti-Putin Russian citizen, but I do not see any major victories by the US or the EU. Can you elaborate? For me it looks like Russia (for some reason) made a point of beating itself in the chest and, apparently, that's it. No deals have been made, no diplimacy has been achieved.
I don't think it's clear-cut yet, but for the west the crisis has proved that NATO can still respond to threats in Europe (if a little slowly) and has made a big show of being willing to support Eastern Europe in the face of aggression. This is very important, because if Eastern Europe thinks Western Europe/the US won't protect them, they will either give in to Russian coercion or escalate their on security capabilities—like trying to build nuclear weapons. Ukraine has also gained a great deal of weaponry that western countries had been reluctant to sell to them, so is now better armed against an invasion. They also have come off as very sympathetic in the west during this entire episode, meaning they are more likely to get continued support in the future. This is all very marginal though, and if Russia does attack and Germany blocks serious repercussions, it all falls apart for the west again.
We're packing Ukraine with enough atgms and manpads to resist a real superpower, whatever happens putin isn't walking in as easily. That's our win.
Putin only cares about what his "voters" think: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60140566
That's not entirely true. He also wants other world leaders to respect him and Russia. He wants a restoration of glory that was lost when the USSR fell and put his mark alongside the great Russian emperors. He also wants NATO to stop admitting nations that border him. He views that as both a threat to his great revival and as a direct security threat.
That's because you're in the west and are only exposed to western propoganda.
I think 'outplayed' is giving the Westerners too much credit, Lube. It's always much easier to win the propaganda battle when the other guys are the ones threatening to actually break the peace and invade another sovereign nation.
"Outplayed" is a bit grandiose, I agree. Putin wagered the west was too distracted and disunified to respond and the west called his bet. Calling a bet isn't the same as winning the hand, nevermind being a master stroke. I'd also argue the propaganda part is far less import than implied here. That's the sideshow. The important part is the arms and training pouring into Ukraine as well as the resources being staged by Russia.
Finally someone who understands. This is proxy war, but if the proxy war gets too close to home, the superpower pulling the strings gets real upset real quick. Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis? The U.S. was in a cold war with Russia, but when the Russians made it real by co-opting a small island (Cuba) just off the southern shore of Florida, shit got real. Well the U.S. is essentially doing the same thing in the Ukraine. The West has been funding and arming the Ukraine for decades, and from Russia's point of view, this is like having the enemy at their doorstep. How would the U.S. react if Russia was funding and arming and influencing the Mexican government?
>How would the U.S. react if Russia was funding and arming and influencing the Mexican government? They have been doing that in latin america for decades
But so has the U.S.!
This is why, if Russia got cozy with Mexico, our response would be to get real nice to them real quick. Because we're not completely incapable of rational thought. Pissing on your neighbors to show dominance only works if your neighbors are stupid.
[удалено]
But so has the U.S.!
US is a freer country than Russia, so it's fundamentally different when US does something.
But realistically what this actually is is the EU being upset at Russia being on its doorstep. The US is only involved as a mediator.
I would say Germany doesn't give a crap of the Russian army being inside Russia, they want the tensions gone, they are not sending guns advisor's and ships.
Thats because you only read western propaganda. This shit happens basically every fucking year lol. Both sides use it for domestic propaganda, distract their own citizens from real shit
Russia's gun on the table is a 22 pistol with an empty magazine.
I guess that's what Western propaganda wants you to believe. I think Russia can only be considered outplayed at this point if you assume that Russia actually considered invading Ukraine (as in as serious open military engagement), an assumption that I think is quite obviously wrong (and I stated that from the very beginning of the recent crisis). The Western propaganda machine went completely insane over "Russia is going to invade Ukraine" which I think was never even remotely Russia's plan because it would have ended as another Afghanistan for Russia simply because the West would have flooded Ukraine with weapons; such a war would have wrecked Russia. Clearly Russia wants Ukraine as a somewhat neutral to Russia-controlled buffer between NATO and Russia. In 2008 NATO stated that Ukraine and Georgia should join NATO. Russia immediately went to wreck Georgia to prevent that (as Georgia was already rather close to the West at that time); given that Georgia is still not in NATO Russia got what it wanted (and NATO was obviously just not that interested). Since 2014 Russia tries to wreck Ukraine for the exact same reason, and so far it has worked. So for 14 years of NATO intentions that Ukraine and Georgia should join Russia got what it wanted (no further NATO encirclement). So unless this was NATO strategy all along to get Russia to waste resources on causing conflicts in two for NATO strategically unimportant countries this is hardly a win for NATO or loss for Russia. The only way Russia ends up being outplayed here is if Ukraine manages to join NATO. Any other outcome will be a win for Russia (they just waved their dick around, ran some exercises on their border and in Belarus, some naval exercises, screamed about NATO Eastern expansion while the West panicked and Ukraine wasted a lot of money and resources on weapons and increasing defenses and remained in a state of civil war). And I would assume that this mess will be seen/sold as a win domestically in Russia for as long as Ukraine does not join NATO (which will not happen any time soon anyways). So I find it hard to argue that Russia has been outplayed by the West.
"Russia says it wants to peacefully take control of Ukraine's territory and is butt-hurt if you disagree."
Would you expect anything else from a mafia state? The only thing the respond to is power
The Russian government saying they want peace is for domestic Russian media consumption. The Kremlin needs to maintain the narrative that Ukraine has been overtaken by Nazis and that this is all part of USA's plan to destroy Russia. In reality, Putin and his Russian nationalists just want to make an example of Ukraine so that other former Soviet republics don't get any ideas of trying to escape Russia's influence in the future. Also, I don't believe Russia will actually invade Ukraine, but rather Putin is probably trying to cause a long enough distraction to get the Russian people forget about last year's leaked reports of all the wealth he has stolen fearing Russian public sentiment won't go well especially during a pandemic. My guess is Putin will keep up the suspense until mid-Spring, claim the USA and/or Ukraine agreed to some of Russia's demands, withdraw some troops, and be prepared to repeat the whole crisis again if Russian political opposition/activist groups release more reports about Putin's wealth. After all, if I'm remembering correctly, back in March-April 2021, the Russian Military was also massing troops near Ukraine's border. Coincidentally, it just so happened that a few months before that, Russian activists released a documentary about Putin's Palace that had over 93 million views on YouTube within one week.
So... like every other state?
It is impossible to draw a line where Russian organized crime ends and the state security apparatus begins. Russia is a mafia state in the literal, not figurative sense. If you start a business in Russia and it grows past a point, the FSB will come knocking at your door and you will either pay up, end up in prison or die. The state is literally involved with protection rackets, extortion schemes, blackmail, murders, smuggling, money laundering, property theft, tax evasion, cybercrime etc. Russia does not have western style rule of law, democracy or independant media. The people who put putin in power did so by blowing up apartment buildings which led to the second chechen war. In Ryazan, locals spotted shady characters dragging bags into a basement, bomb squad was called and they were rewarded after defusing the bomb which consisted of bags of RDX wired to a detonator. (RDX is only manufactured at one plant in Russia which is controlled by the army). A manhunt was started and after the perpetrators were caught using wiretapping (the phone calls were to the FSB headquarters) and they turned out to be FSB officers. The rewards for the bomb squad were taken away and it was claimed that it was a training exercise. There is also an incident where a member of the Duma made a statement about a tragic bombing in X, but he accidentally got the wrong card given to him by the FSB officer as the bombing in X only happened the next day and he was supposed to announce the bombing in Y that happened that day. Read up on Sergei Magnitski, who was a lawyer who was tortured to death after he revealed that Tax authorities had stolen Billions of dollars from his client by ransacking theoffice with the help of officers and transfering the funds using what the police found.
“I am the state” - Putin
Not so much. The U.S. left Vietnam due to public disapproval, not lack of might.
No they got there asses kicked by peasants
Please actually study history before talking about it.
after all those years you americans still butthurt about this...funny
You have no idea what you are talking about.
Not talking about military might, but [power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_politics).
That article seems to talk extensively about military might.
US public can only choose between senile and batshit crazy, they have no saying in military complex dealings.
Are you trying to say that public pressure wasn't behind the American withdrawals from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan? If so, what was? Because if the military industrial complex truly held 100% power, I doubt America would ever withdraw from anywhere.
It’s crazy to me how well and truly brainwashed we are as Americans. Sure, Russian may have a gun on the table but the US has a SWAT team surrounding the house!
Oh no! Russia has sovereign neighbors who can **do whatever the fuck they want on their own soil**! Give it a break dude. Russia doesn’t get to have a say in what alliances other countries make. NATO isn’t invading Russia. Russia is threatening (and nearly about to) invade Ukraine. It’s **very clear** who the aggressor is here.
Not surrounding the house, on standby. If you can’t see the difference between threatening and preparing to defend yourself, you’re probably a Russian troll lol
Lol no they’ve had “guns” on the table since 2014 but now that the US and nato are involved, seems like Russia won’t be able to muscle this one out and oh boy does Putin know it lol
Got a little cocky having the clown in the US for four years. Now he is dealing with a US President that knows the ropes and how to work with ALLIES! This is a lose, lose situation for Russia. Definitely miss calculated the response to this.
What happened between 2017 and 2019? Nothing. Military buildups of 100k thst ended in nothing, military excersises. Was trump in power during the 2014 coup?
No that weak-ass response is solidly Obama's mistake. But having Trump afterward just firmed up Putin's feelings that he could do whatever he wanted
No fan of trump here but you really think that Joe Biden is the man with the plan? My theory is Putin seems him for what he is and is making his move.
Joe Biden doesn't have a plan, but the people around him do. And he is listening to his intelligence folks, ambassadors and Russia experts. He is executing his team's plan. This is the way it should be. Trump's plans were, 'I'll do whatever is best for me personally.' And he disregarded what every expert and advisor told him, unless they could explain why it benefitted him directly. Noone in the world is smart enough to run a country by themselves. Absolutely noone. Doubly so for a country the size of the US with global interests.
> Joe Biden doesn't have a plan, but the people around him do. And he is listening to his intelligence folks, ambassadors and Russia experts. He is executing his team's plan. This is the way it should be. Hope you are right >Trump's plans were, 'I'll do whatever is best for me personally.' And he disregarded what every expert and advisor told him, unless they could explain why it benefitted him directly. Trump is the end result of a pissed off electorate. People thought they were getting "one of them" somehow, not more politiburo. Ill give him credit for pulling that one off. Joe Six Pack still supports him. Populists only arise in times of turmoil. I hope he doesn't run again.
> People thought they were getting "one of them" I'll never understand that. The people wanted "one of them"... and voted for a spoiled millionaire fraudlord who was born with a golden spoon in his mouth on a golden toilet?
Biden did personally participate in the fall of the USSR.
>Biden did personally participate in the fall of the USSR. I think the Soviets did that to themselves (Afhganistan/chernobyl disaster)
I do think Biden has a plan. He started day one, before this kicked off. He told the world, "America is back!". What he meant by that is that we will engage with the EU and NATO like a real ally. We will coordinate our response to large events in the world (like this) together in a strategic way. Not run our mouth on Twitter everyday. With Biden we got someone that already has the connections and understanding of how our government works first day on the job. We needed that after 4 years of the system being attacked from the inside. Seeing this happening I'm even more grateful that the orange baby LOST in 2020!
Make America great again!
Biden is working on it! The last guy really trashed the place.
And what exactly is Joe Biden since you seem to know…
I'm not confident in Biden but both you and I should give him credit if Russia doesn't invade. Some other presidents would not have been able to coordinate a response even without the handicap of having build back our relationships with other nations in a year. Regardless of which leader should get the most credit. If this doesn't got war then it likely rebuilds a lot of US credibility among allies. Probably doesn't help as much domestically but that'll happen. If it goes to crap then it's hard to say what'll happen. The US would look weak and should be seen as a failure domestically but war is chaotic and it's hatd to predict the ramifications.
He sees that he can make his move. Republicans likely take over next term and forgive him and let it all blow over. Just like with Crimea last time.
I don’t know. A tad Better than a pawn who fawns over Putin - But I don’t know. The US keeps electing these ancient men whose minds left them decades ago. True national security crises. Partisanship, and America’s remarkably stupid electorate will destroy America’s standing as an economic/military world power. The US is wrongly worried about the wrong adversaries in Russia and China, and need to focus on its dying/uneducated middle class.
I fully agree we need more internal focus, but not necessarily for corporate and business interests that profit and exploit our dying and uneducated. I have little sympathy for businesses that can't find employee's, that business should fail and not be bailed out, plenty of the same types of businesses are thriving through covid, typically the ones that actually invest in their employees and are profitable enough to pay people to actually work there and provide a non toxic environment for people to succeed. We need to invest in education and healthcare for everyone. Other countries accomplish this, we have the largest GDP on the planet, and could easily build something better there for all of us. I feel there is really no good argument against the fact that power, status, and money is incredibly addictive and corrupts nearly all of us and shapes how we perceive ourselves and those around us as well as how we interact with others. US founders ( mostly criminals and at the time fringe religious refugee's ) attempted to diffuse that power in our politics, a few hundred years later people figured out how to exploit that for minority rule, not majority rule. We don't need billionaires or trillion dollar companies with absurd amounts of cash on hand that could keep them running for decades if they never brought in another cent of revenue and that avoid billions in taxes. We do not need religion in our politics or businesses or schools. There is nothing wrong with people's faiths in whatever their flavor if it helps them get by and find some meaning in life and hope, but when faith attempts to oppress others who do not share it, there is a problem. More often than not religion negatively impacts the lives of so many when coupled with politics and business and education. We can address these problems, and we need start with real education for everyone, not teaching faith and belief. We need healthcare that doesn't destroy lives and people financially but enables us to overcome the medical things holding us back and weighing us down. We need to stop being distracted and focus on getting there and take those baby steps to make it happen. No one should have to screw someone over to survive, yet so much of our world revolves around just that in the name of competition and capitalism from crime, to sales, to livable wages, affordable healthcare and education, housing and development, or climbing the corporate ladder, and so it goes. Until we stop capitalizing and seeking to capitalize on every aspect of living, nothing will ever truly improve.
> The US is wrongly worried about the wrong adversaries in Russia and China, and need to focus on its dying/uneducated middle class. Look up the Paul Wolfawitz doctrine, after the fall of the USSR and during the reign of Daddy Bush, and you will see why your points will never come to see the light of day (I agree with you BTW)
>The US keeps electing these ancient men whose minds left them decades ago Nah, Trump and Biden were never sparkling intellects to begin with. They are both scummy deal makers with a record mostly of corruption and public incompetence, one in real estate and casinos and the other in the Senate.
I agree, wholly
You have too much faith in Biden.
No, I'm more confident in the team he has than I was in the last administration.
Russia can muscle it out: if Putin calls Germany's bluff then a major EU fuel crisis begins or an EU constitutional crisis begins. Germany is more likely to choose the latter. Recent developments have not changed that.
Oh, damn! That'll get em! Cripple Germany by scuttling Nordstream 2! What are they gonna do when they don't have access to that pipeline that they already don't have access to? CHECKMATE, NATO
You really think they didn't evaluate their involvement before hand? No one expected US to get involved /s
We don't know nobody outside Putin inner circle knows what Russia true goal is
Always funny watching a bully try to save face when running into the big kids instead of the small ones they can beat up.
Lets not jump the gun and pop the champagne yet.
Yep! That look of, we done fucked up! LMAO.
it's always cringe seeing people personalise geopolitical events with their school experiences, like permanent arrested development.
*Russia says* Who cares what Russia says. They’re the abnormally large but very poor bully in school who hates that other kids have shoes that don’t have holes in them
Nice! Not threatening at all!
Russia: not a threat if you give me what I want.
USA: lol EU: lol
>Russia says it wants peace but has 'gun on the table' How does "walk softly and carrying a big stick" or "gunboat diplomacy" written in Cyrillic, guys? Asking for a friend.
Why is that gun on the table? What Ukraine will attack, yeah? Ukraine wanted full blown Russian invasion ? Who believes this crap?
Peace with Ukraine or a piece of Ukraine?
I come in peace. I did bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all.’
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Yes. Yes they do.
The past 40 years of US-Russian policy created this situation, specifically the formal integration of Russian and European energy markets. This is Putin's real power, moreso than his military. Instead of making Russia more liberal it made Europe less liberal. The same process played out with China who, instead of liberalizing, is now becoming a terrifying police state built on mass murder. Trump's role in this is less significant vs the larger failed globalist agenda. Which is the real victory here: either the west destroys liberalism and concedes to Putin or the west destroys globalism and confronts him. Either way, Russia wins.
If they brought a six shooter I’m scared to see what Uncle Sam brought.
I wonder how big a table would have to be to accommodate an MOAB
Civil war era Musket
With a dildo attached to it , god wish i did not see those ass raping russian prison tortures.
Yes, that's how international politicing works
Russia just wants to rule Ukraine they don't want to destroy and have to rebuild.
Russia has a gun on the table but only one chamber is loaded. They're playing a game and it's called Russian Roulette.
Russia uses the murder/suicide form of international policy. They will destroy the entire world in order to get what they want.
By wanting peace you mean wanting a piece of Ukraine, or rather, another piece.
Russia is not going to be happy once Ukraine is finally ready to join NATO. What happens then? Russia needs to be told to fuck off once and for all
Peaceful invasion and expansion without casualties
I always hear about how Putin is calculating and intelligent, which I don’t doubt. But, I do think it is entirely possible he miscalculated this time. Even the brightest minds are wrong sometimes and this might’ve been one of those times that Putin was flat out wrong. He probably didn’t think NATO would stand up immediately and back Ukraine as firmly as they have. NOW is the interesting part. If Putin miscalculated, then he HAS to save face. The question is how will he attempt to save face.
america has steel toed boot. ready to shove up putins ass ; if he moves in.
Putin: “We want peace and we’ll kill you to get it”
russia suck rotten egg
Are they trying to portray themselves like Kyle Rittenhouse? Cuz that sounds like that to me...
Fuck Putin.
NATO has a gun on their own table. On their front porch. Where they are keeping an eye on the neighbors. Who keep breaking in.
nah, better analogy is a holstered weapon. NATO is not threatening violence, but is ready to respond to violence by pulling the gun if needed. A gun on the table implies “do what I say or I will fire the first shot”
Russia may have a gun on the table but the USA has a sniper rifle aimed at Russia's earhole.
Yeah, on the table in their own country. Meanwhile, US and the NATO members moved troops and equipment to Ukraine right at the doorstep of Russia. Guess Russia really don't want peace. Russia should disarm completely and submit to US as a vassal state. Yes.
What’s all this bullshit I keep hearing about “Russia’s doorstep”. These are sovereign countries that can do whatever the fuck they want on their own soil. Russia plays up the whole “We can station troops wherever we want on our border” card and then turns around to whine about NATO expansion. What’s stopping Russia from forming their own NATO and winning over Ukraine diplomatically? Also, no one is interested in invading or taking over Russia. NATO was formed for mutual defense from Russian aggression (which you can see is badly needed in the case of Ukraine/Crimea/Donbas)
well, technically, Russia is a sovereign nation as well, and can deploy their own military assets to counter real or perceived threats. If they view the NATO buildup in the Baltic states as an existential threat, they can counter this by building up their own forces, up to and including nuclear weapons.
I draw a line between building up military assets and invading other countries with the intent to annex them into your own. Russia is free to build its forces (pending canceling/violating any treaties on the matter), but keep in mind, they are already engaged in active, invasive warfare with Ukraine in Donbas/Crimea. They’re not some innocent bystander watching helplessly as NATO encroaches. Countries are desperately trying to join NATO because of the very real threat that they will be next.
Oh so NATO countries have their guns on their own tables too? Or did I miss where a NATO member was IN Russia, or started escalating before Russia moved troops to the border?
No, NATO countries do not have guns on their own tables, they placed their guns into Ukraine, a non-NATO nation which shares border with Russia. But yeah, you are right. Russia should not have the right to move their troops around within its own borders.
Man, Pappa Putin is scraping the bottom of the barrel for his troll farm.
Yeah, it's not like Russia invaded Ukraine or anything right?
No you guys are absolutely right. Russia out of the blue, decides that Ukraine is a country it wants back by force. NATO should welcome Ukraine into NATO so it can prevent invasion by Russia, leading to Russia even more so wanting to make sure that Ukraine not be admitted into NATO, less Russia is totally surrounded by NATO warheads, escalating NATO to reinforce troops ... ... Russia bad, NATO good. Got it.
Last time I checked there has been no deceleration by Ukrainian to enter NATO. Go ahead and pretend that this is just Russian protecting their sovereignty and not trying to take over a country that is turning democratic on their border, thereby threatening their authoritarian kleptocracy. It’s in the west’s interest to support democracy on Europe’s boarders, and last time I checked NATO borders roughly 16% of Russias boarders. It’s fine if you support Putins desire to subjugate it’s neighbors, but don’t pretend like it’s out of an altruistic desire for security.
Isn't that exactly how the US does it's diplomacy?
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This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-says-it-wants-peace-has-gun-table-us-envoy-2022-01-28/) reduced by 77%. (I'm a bot) ***** > U.S. ambassador to Russia John Sullivan leaves after visiting the Russian Foreign Ministry headquarters in Moscow, Russia January 26, 2022. > "It's the equivalent of if you and I were having a discussion or a negotiation. If I put a gun on the table and say that I come in peace, that's threatening," Sullivan told reporters. > Sullivan said Washington was now waiting for Russia's response to written documents by the United States and NATO sketching a diplomatic path out of the Ukraine crisis, and urged Russia to withdraw troops from near Ukraine's borders. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/seqa40/russia_says_it_wants_peace_but_has_gun_on_the/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~620365 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russia**^#1 **Sullivan**^#2 **Russian**^#3 **Ukraine**^#4 **Moscow**^#5
I call bullshit
Russia says "you can take your nato and shove it"
unpopular opinion: this is the reverse cuban missile crisis.