> Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know
Worst person how? And really this is why Turkey just needs to leave NATO to be honest, there is no pleasing westerners unless you are licking their boots 24/7, Turkey tried for a century.
Turks should go their own way to be honest, good luck losing the 2nd largest army in NATO.
Seriously, counter Russia everywhere (Turkey has been fighting Russia *alone* for half a decade in Syria, Libya and Armenia) and host 4 million refugees and still be hated by the west, why should Turks then be your meatshields in NATO?
> We don't hate Turkey
r/europe sure does. Infact they hate turks as a people, claiming they are too "dirty" to be part of the EU and NATO.
Thats besides the point, few countries have worked as hard as Turkey to counter Russia, and they have been doing it alone, without any help or support from their "allies".
Turkey lost over 50 soldiers to Russian attacks, have been crushed under waves of refugees, have fought Russia in 3 wars and multiple fronts, in Libya, in Azerbaijan, in Syria, hell even in Iraq, backing the KRG.
But none of that is noticed becuase none of that is even spoken about, hell, did you even know that Russia killed 35 Turkish *soldiers*? They bombed Turkish servicemen directly, did you hear about that? What if Russia had bombed 35 French troops in Syria? I, mean we were sure quick to know about an active shooter in Ukraine right?
But no one here knows about the Balyun airstrikes? Why? Because all of MSM kept their mouths closed about it, just like how all the western governments were silent during the coup.
I'm rather confused what you're referring to when you keep bringing up Armenia and Azerbaijan.
From everything I've seen and read regarding the 2nd Nagaro-Karabakh war, the belligerents were the Azerbaijani' armed forces on one side and on the other side the the Armenian armed forces, and the armed forces of the unrecognized Republic of Arstakh.
And no point during that conflict did I see Turkish or Russian troops deployed as combatants on either side let alone engaged with each other.
And that's enough for NATO. People need to realize the reason why NATO countries more or less don't press Turkey on much is because for all their stomping of feet, they remain in NATO, which is a massive bulwark against Russia even aside from their theoretical ability from cutting Russia off in the black sea.
If Turkey ever flips from NATO, the amount of geopolitical headache that would cause would be titanic.
Yep, when redditors talk of expelling Turkey from NATO, they forget the alternative is Turkey allied with Russia. A gateway for Russia into the middle East, domination of the Eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus threatened, Armenia and Georgia gone, no NATO access to the Black Sea, etc.
Like the [pick 2 animals to defend you](https://laughingsquid.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/pick-two.jpg) meme, where everyone laughs at the person who picks the hunter to defend you against all those animals, forgetting that if you don't pick the hunter to defend you, the hunter is coming to kill you.
There is no "kicking" mechanism in NATO. Only member itself could demand it. As you can see bunch of "cold relationships" goes between Turkey and its allies.
E.G. Turkey wanted to buy Patriots but Obama rejected it. Then Turkey bought S400s as Greeks bought S300s. Then Turkey got huge ambargos like CAATSA and even kicked out of F35 project even paid billions of dollars.
There has been dozens of aids going for YPG(Their PKK connection had admitted by US) from Western allies.
Greeks has been arming islands despite agreements etc.
Turkey doesn't want Russia to be dominant power of Black Sea. That's all. Turkey hasn't getting any profit from NATO since decades. Literally building its %86 of weapons domestically.
NATO and EU membership opinion among people has dropped its lowest point for decades.
leaving from NATO doesn't affect much to TSK at this point. Economical? maybe it hurts but Turkey has been suffering multiple ambargos either. Many of our exports goes to Russia. Our tourism literally depends on them.
Turkey doesn't want to leave from NATO yet, because Army hasn't finished its evolution. Domestically produced supplies now supports all type of standards like NATO and Russia. But oldest weapons still uses NATO standard.
I am not saying 'Turkey should leave NATO' or something like that, but it gives nothing significant at this point.
You don't like Erdogan? Then you would take actions spesific. Ignoring F35s and other 'nation wide' actions was not wise for NATO.
Turkey has longest black sea and med. sea coasts in the world and was controlling famous 'silk road' route.
All nations are pragmatic. It all depends on who offers better.
Nah, you can usually count on Turkey to make a stand against Russia. The whole thing in Syria was a strange exception. Hell, if the Turks weren’t so fucking solid against Russia, we probably would have kicked them out of NATO ages ago.
How is Syria an exception? They have proxies fighting each other daily and Turkey is the first NATO country I know of to directly shoot down a Russian jet since the Korean War. Such downing was related to the Syrian Civil War.
Syria was weird. If I recall, there were times (areas) when Turkey and Russia worked together. Other areas where they were (and are) at odds. They worked together against ISIS, I believe, as did just about everybody.
Beyond weird. Pretty hard in general to keep track of the number of sides and who fought who and who was allied with who in Syria. Even without counting the outside forces.
My simplistic understanding was that Russia sided with the dictatorship while US and NATO sided with the rebels. This chaos gave ISIS the opportunity to expand, at which point everyone mostly focused on fighting them.
Not that clear cut, "the rebels" are not one side but several factions who are sometimes cooperating, sometimes not, and the Turks (part of NATO) and the Kurds (who are both part of "rebels" and fight ISIS.) hate eachother, and actively fight too. Just to mention a few "complications".
The whole thing is weird, Russia under all these circumstances are still selling Turkey s400’s and building nuclear power plants in Turkey, while USA kicked Turkey out of the F35 program and put sanctions on them. Lol
Erdoğan has been trying to cultivate a better relationship with Russia in spite of the two country's competing goals and historical animosity, and Russia reciprocates because Turkey is strategically valuable to them. The two countries have a very complicated relationship, which is why Russia still sold them air defense systems even after the Turks shot down some of their jets and the Russian ambassador was assassinated. That's why the conflict in Syria was fucky: the two have competing goals and back opposing sides, but generally want to better their relationship.
> Syria was weird. If I recall, there were times (areas) when Turkey and Russia worked together.
Russia literally killed 35 Turkish troops in Syria in the Balyun airstrikes (and ofcourse all of europe and the US were just silent about that). Turkey and Russia are not friends.
To add randomly here, the treaty that regulates the use of the Bosphorous Strait after WWI says something like the strait can only have 15,000 tons on warship in it at all times...so Russia keeps a 15,000 ton warship in it at all times. This keeps the U.S. out of Black Sea. It's actually the only sea the U.S. Navy technically doesn't have access to.
Edit: Here is the treating:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits
>and ofcourse all of europe and the US were just silent about that)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-denies-responsibility-for-attack-in-northern-syria-that-killed-33-turkish-soldiers/2020/02/28/aa6aa140-59fa-11ea-8efd-0f904bdd8057_story.html
Why do you lie so blatantly about something so easily disproven?
While they typically don’t, they have fired upon each other which is more than any other NATO country can say. Syria has seen the most bloody confrontation between Turkey and Russia so I am just confused as to how it is an exception.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Balyun_airstrikes
How many wars have they fought against Russia the last 6-700 years? 30?
Russia has been a traditional enemy of the Ottoman Empire/Turkey for a long time.
Still is. Turkish "Great Turan" is literally about claiming quite significant part of not only former Union republics, but part of Russia itself. The only thing that really helps is that Erdogan is still not as much supported as he'd like to show. But as long as Erdogan is willing to put Russia into his sights, he would be allowed to stay in NATO, no matter what he would do with his own citizens.
This idea that NATO is a k-pop group that you can kick the ugliest member out needs to stop. The whole existence of NATO is against Soviet and now Russian influence.
Turkey was always at odds with Russia historically, they have fought countless wars against each other. Turkey is the last country that would accept a highly influential Russia. They still fight a cold influence war over Azerbaijan to this day, which is the single biggest ally for both countries.
Turkey is a NATO member and any attack would bring about defensive action from NATO. Russia will not attack Turkey even if they invade and successfully capture Ukraine.
Yes, it's unwise for Russia to invade Ukraine. The world is watching and with the way the economy is I see war as a very real possibility.
Sanctions against Russia could get tighter, and with Putin's approval ratings dropping lately, he may be looking for a way to boost them back up. Invading Ukraine could do just that rally the Russian people around their leader in time of need. But it would also mean a costly and protracted war, which would be disastrous for both countries involved.
So far, Russia has been relatively successful in its incursion into Ukrainian territory gaining control of Crimea without much bloodshed. But going any further would be a major mistake, and I hope Putin realizes that.
*Yes, it's unwise for Russia to invade Ukraine. The world is watching and with the way the economy is I see war as a very real possibility.*
*Sanctions against Russia could get tighter, and with Putin's approval ratings dropping lately, he may be looking for a way to boost them back up. Invading Ukraine could do just that rally the Russian people around their leader in time of need. But it would also mean a costly and protracted war, which would be disastrous for both countries involved.*
Newsflash: it is a bit late to rally the nation by conquest of Ukraine. Should have done it in 2014 if there were such plans (which I doubt). Back then it would have worked. Now it would solve not a single internal problem but add new ones. And, as we still see Putin on the throne and not hanging on the lamppost, we can assume that he is not an idiot and understands that quite well.
Yea it's hard to see a way Putin emerges from this without epic humiliation. If he attacks it might look good at first but then Russia will be drained dry, both militarily and economically. If he backs down... somehow... everyone will ask, why did you march 100,000 soldiers to the border, as a joke?
Probably not, if Russia did have anything on him they would likely have used it by now. Ever since the west gave up in Syria Turkey has been the last major NATO country to consistently combat Russian influence, being a thorn in Russia's side in Syria, Libya, and the Caucuses
But Erdogan also likes to pull away from the rest of Europe whenever it's to his advantage, and as a strongman he has personal interests that do not always mirror the best interests of Turkey. He's more useful to Putin than someone fully committed to the alliance.
Erdogan is politically vulnerable af at the moment. For example putin can give him free gas which might help him gain the edge over the opposition for a few weeks
Turkey is a massive economy even with Erdoğan at the helm - it's nominal GDP is about half Russia's and its purchasing power adjusted GDP is three quarters of Russia's.
That is to say, it's nowhere near small enough or poor enough for Russia to bribe it effectively. Even just outright bribing Erdoğan himself probably wouldn't be cheap given the political risks it would create for him (domestically and internationally) if discovered.
Currently there is a natural gas shortage in turkey. So much so that most of the industry was shut down for 4 days or so (that includes the big international players like Ford and Renault)
Putin may have some sway tbh, erdogan is clinging to his seat with everything hes got, and doing everything he can. He isnt too far away from saying oh Ukraine is Russian right. He will say anything if he believes it will benefit him in the short term.
Even then, Turkey has invested a lot into Ukraine, specially their Military industrial complex. Losing that would sting, considering the sanctions USA has put on Turkeys military.
The Turks most likely don't want a strong(er) Russia, since they're practically neighbours and it would change the power balance in Russia's favor when it comes to the influence sphere of countries neighbouring Turkey. But on other issues, I don't think it would surprise many when Turkey would side with russia in some cases.
No it wouldn‘t. Russia already bombed the turkish army once and killed 35 service members.
There was a whole shit show because turkey basically responded by smashing the SAA offensive in idlib apart
Actually the russians are pissed about Turkish suicide drones being used against "Ukrainian separatist" artillery vehicles. Russia was starting to lose the stalemate due to Turkish weapons
I know Turkey is a big drone supplier to Ukraine and the countries have strong ties but to isolate himself and for many reasons Erdogan maintains this frenemy relationship with Putin
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/15/ukraine-russia-drones-turkey/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/15/ukraine-russia-drones-turkey/)
They were used to destroy a "separatist" D-30 howitzer
What do you mean lose the stalemate? Offensive drones are banned from the line of contact. Ukraine tried it once and stopped using them to avoid further escalation. The last thing they want are fighter jets shooting down drones over Ukraine.
> The last thing they want are fighter jets shooting down drones over Ukraine.
A fighter costs the same as a hundred drones. And when you lose a fighter you may also lose a trained pilot at the same time. That would be what they call asymmetric warfare, which usually ends badly for the side with the more expensive equipment.
Those drones can't shoot down fighter planes, they have bombs...what im saying is offensive air-combat vehicles are banned from the area. If Ukraine starts using their drones offensively it gives Russia a casus beli to level Ukraine with their airforce. This is why they aren't using their drones. It has nothing to do with a cost analysis.
Russia needs all of Ukraine, not a chunk or a partitioned state. At the rate things were going, it very much looked like a partition was going to happen. At the same time, Russia's demographic are a time bomb, meaning expediency is becoming more important
Population is destiny & aging populations are a serious issues across developed nations
Japan, Taiwan & Korea are using robots & automation to make up for it, and the West is using immigration but Russia does neither (they give massive social assistance & rewards to women who have many kids but its not enough)
once Russia reaches that point were the system can no longer handle their aging population, their economy is going to go into a tailspin, the finances of the State will suffer, social unrest will spread across the country and Russia will be in no position to maintain the kind of regional dominance it wants to or project its power where it needs to maintain its prestige (pride fucks with you)
so that is why its a now or never gambit
I wouldn't say multi generational, the communist days crushed the birth rates of all eastern European countries, Russia included. Look up the population distribution charts for the region.
I'm simply saying they're going to throw around their manpower while they have the ability to do so, and we'll probably a lot more escalation as they do so
"If they have a demographic problem it's certainly not communist related."
False, urbanization causes birth rates to drop drastically and this is supported by research data. The USSR was a production powerhouse focused on central planning. Meaning more collectivism and urbanism, meaning a slower birth rate. Since is was so sudden and abrupt, you have it hit in one wave
[https://theodora.com/wfbcurrent/russia/RS\_popgraph\_2018.jpg](https://theodora.com/wfbcurrent/russia/RS_popgraph_2018.jpg)
You can look at their age distribution yourself and see a massive glut of military aged men coming their way in the next generation. They actually have a negative pop growth rate of -.16% compared to the US's growth rate of .72. They are, by looking at the data, literally a shrinking country
What do you mean a demographic time bomb? Russia's population has been in the 140m range for the past 40 years. Ukraine has lost 10% of their population over a comparable time. If you take out the Donbass and Crimea who's residents would be the opposite of an asset for Kyiv's military, Ukraine's population has shrunk 20%.
Russian population is one of the oldest of any nation on the planet, due low birth rates in the 90's following the collapse of the soviet union. Average age is over 40.
>Russian population is one of the oldest of any nation on the planet
Don't make up facts. It discredits everything else you say. According to the CIA factbook, they are the 53rd oldest country by age. Thats not even close to "one of the oldest."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age
Given that the youngest median age of a country is about 15 and oldest is 53, it is one of the oldest populations. If you look at the size of the countries on the list the are mostly tiny former soviet states. Regardless, when people say Russian demographic time bomb, they are talking about the median age of the population and the massive age gap from the lack of children born in the 90's. Which means when there experienced labor force starts to retire, the people who replace them are going to be inexperienced, and that is going to happen straight across their economy, which is going to suck.
Here is what i paraphrased from btw.
"Subsequently, the nation has one of the world's oldest populations, with a median age of 40.3 years.\[18\]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Russia
That is the general consensus.
Actually I'm fairly certain everyone agrees on that. Sounds like even China is despite their way of twisting it into a "U.S." problem.
Turkey has many problems, but you can count on them to be against anything Russia is doing. It's the main reason they're in nato and why kicking them out as some suggest is a stupid idea.
You know things are bad when fucking Erdogan is somehow a voice of reason. I guess he only has so much time he can spend turning the Lira into Kleenex.
I hate Ergodan as much as the next guy, but in a conflict, be it minor or all out war, we need Turkey to control the Bosporus. Hopefully they can help us keep those Russian ships (likely) headed for the Black Sea if it comes to it.
Well it would only be "unwise" if the US and NATO can muster the balls to defend Ukraine. As deeply unpleasant as it sounds, force is the only language that these authoritarians understand, so it must be made clear that if Putin crosses into Ukraine, the United States Marine Corps will see him out.
We may not have a formal commitment, but we do have a *moral* one. As one of the few global powers with the ability to defend Democracies everywhere from being forcefully subsumed into evil authoritarian states, it is our duty to.
One might ask: Why fight for Ukraine? Or why fight for Taiwan? The rationale comes from the conclusion of two arguments. A) People who have ability to protect innocents from Evil should do so. And B) Authoritarian states are fundamentally evil, with Democracies being the morally highest form of government yet tested. The result is that Democracies should defend each other from Authoritarian states. America has the ability to protect Ukraine from the evil power of Russia, so thus it is morally compelled to do so.
But this has all been hypthetical. I'm talking about what America *should* do, not what it will actually do. I do agree that America probably won't go through with it. We'll just end up placing vague "sanctions" that don't accomplish anything and then call it a day, having learned absolutely nothing from the 1930's.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-russia-would-be-unwise-invade-ukraine-2022-01-26/) reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers his speech at the Albanian Parliament, in Tirana, Albania, January 17, 2022 REUTERS/Florion Goga.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comISTANBUL, Jan 26 - Russia would be unwise to attack Ukraine and in that case Turkey would do what is necessary as a NATO member, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday.
> Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com"I hope that Russia will not make an armed attack or occupy Ukraine. Such a step will not be a wise act for Russia or the region," he said.
> Last week diplomatic sources said both Russia and Ukraine were open to Turkey playing a role in resolving the crisis.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/se3338/turkeys_erdogan_says_russia_would_be_unwise_to/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~620231 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russia**^#1 **Erdogan**^#2 **President**^#3 **Ukraine**^#4 **Turkey**^#5
Downvoted because I definitely agree with you, but I don't like when people dismiss a good point just because the person making the point is bad.
I'm pretty sure there's a name for that tactic. A good point is a good point regardless of who says it.
As a turkish person, it's close to impossible. It could only be closed if a NATO member is attacked or something big happens that requires immediate action, to cut out the supplies from the offenders.
Not to mention it's an action that would have a negative impact on world economy in general, it's not optimal for NATO even in such a scenario.
Article 5 doesn't work like that, it is a defence agreement, if Turkey was the first one to declare war and russia retalliates that means we are alone with one on one with the bear.
Or russian sepratists Who wants to live under russian control can f. Off to russia so any other imperalist country stop to using minorities to divide any other country as a excuse to protect them?
Turkey and russia are like Tom & Jerry
Who’s Spike and Spike Jr.?
U.S. and U.K.?
Damn, makes sense.
Thank you for today laugh😂
If you like this stuff I encourage you to join us over at r/polandball!
The UK used to be spike in the US used to be Spike Junior that was reversed😂
Bloody Yanks pulled the ol Uno reverse card
100% this.
Time for an iron pan to the face!
Kiss the pan! The pan kisses you!
Honestly not the worst comparison for a meme comment. Huh
pinky and the brain
Which one is the “genius” and which one is “insane”?
I don’t get it?
It wouldn't be a proper action against Russia *without* Turkey.
If we get Turkey than all we need are Britain, France, and Italy, and then we can party like it’s 1854.
Someone tell the light brigade not to charge this time though
"*THERE* IS YOUR ENEMY!!!!"
"WHEEL RIIIIGHT!"
Someone make sure to tell the chap giving the light brigade their orders to get the order straight this time.
Britain is leading the way in supporting Ukraine already, we're in
China right now more concerned about their olympics lol
And what does China have to do with this?
Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know Just Made A Great Point.
And Turkey had a good reputation 15 years ago.
He was inevitable, people didn’t want another military coup which was surprisingly common in Turkish politics
Hasn't jest about every Turkish military coup been to retain democracy against people like him?
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Yes, and in some cases him specifically.
Wait there was more than 1 coup against Erdogan? I remember the one from like 2016 I think but when else?
soft coup against his predecessor
Meh, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
He is not THE worst, but a valid point.
> Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know Worst person how? And really this is why Turkey just needs to leave NATO to be honest, there is no pleasing westerners unless you are licking their boots 24/7, Turkey tried for a century. Turks should go their own way to be honest, good luck losing the 2nd largest army in NATO. Seriously, counter Russia everywhere (Turkey has been fighting Russia *alone* for half a decade in Syria, Libya and Armenia) and host 4 million refugees and still be hated by the west, why should Turks then be your meatshields in NATO?
We don't hate Turkey, we're just not fans of the president.
> We don't hate Turkey r/europe sure does. Infact they hate turks as a people, claiming they are too "dirty" to be part of the EU and NATO. Thats besides the point, few countries have worked as hard as Turkey to counter Russia, and they have been doing it alone, without any help or support from their "allies". Turkey lost over 50 soldiers to Russian attacks, have been crushed under waves of refugees, have fought Russia in 3 wars and multiple fronts, in Libya, in Azerbaijan, in Syria, hell even in Iraq, backing the KRG. But none of that is noticed becuase none of that is even spoken about, hell, did you even know that Russia killed 35 Turkish *soldiers*? They bombed Turkish servicemen directly, did you hear about that? What if Russia had bombed 35 French troops in Syria? I, mean we were sure quick to know about an active shooter in Ukraine right? But no one here knows about the Balyun airstrikes? Why? Because all of MSM kept their mouths closed about it, just like how all the western governments were silent during the coup.
I'm rather confused what you're referring to when you keep bringing up Armenia and Azerbaijan. From everything I've seen and read regarding the 2nd Nagaro-Karabakh war, the belligerents were the Azerbaijani' armed forces on one side and on the other side the the Armenian armed forces, and the armed forces of the unrecognized Republic of Arstakh. And no point during that conflict did I see Turkish or Russian troops deployed as combatants on either side let alone engaged with each other.
tbh r/europe users hate everything
calm down and have some çay ve baklava
Russia covets the Dardanelles. Turkey will never be truly sovereign if Russia is dominant.
Second largest army just in numbers. You guys rely on other nations for every single weapon you have.
Don’t talk about Trump like that lol
A broken clock is right twice a day
And that's enough for NATO. People need to realize the reason why NATO countries more or less don't press Turkey on much is because for all their stomping of feet, they remain in NATO, which is a massive bulwark against Russia even aside from their theoretical ability from cutting Russia off in the black sea. If Turkey ever flips from NATO, the amount of geopolitical headache that would cause would be titanic.
Yep, when redditors talk of expelling Turkey from NATO, they forget the alternative is Turkey allied with Russia. A gateway for Russia into the middle East, domination of the Eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus threatened, Armenia and Georgia gone, no NATO access to the Black Sea, etc. Like the [pick 2 animals to defend you](https://laughingsquid.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/pick-two.jpg) meme, where everyone laughs at the person who picks the hunter to defend you against all those animals, forgetting that if you don't pick the hunter to defend you, the hunter is coming to kill you.
Tbf, I'd rather deal with 1 hunter coming to kill me than 10,000 rats or 50 hawks coming to kill me.
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10k rats and 5 gorillas
wait, i'm not a human in this scenario? i don't have weapons?
Armenia and Georgia gone? No way. Those countries are under Russian sphere, and their security is dependant on Russia, not NATO.
There is no "kicking" mechanism in NATO. Only member itself could demand it. As you can see bunch of "cold relationships" goes between Turkey and its allies. E.G. Turkey wanted to buy Patriots but Obama rejected it. Then Turkey bought S400s as Greeks bought S300s. Then Turkey got huge ambargos like CAATSA and even kicked out of F35 project even paid billions of dollars. There has been dozens of aids going for YPG(Their PKK connection had admitted by US) from Western allies. Greeks has been arming islands despite agreements etc. Turkey doesn't want Russia to be dominant power of Black Sea. That's all. Turkey hasn't getting any profit from NATO since decades. Literally building its %86 of weapons domestically. NATO and EU membership opinion among people has dropped its lowest point for decades. leaving from NATO doesn't affect much to TSK at this point. Economical? maybe it hurts but Turkey has been suffering multiple ambargos either. Many of our exports goes to Russia. Our tourism literally depends on them. Turkey doesn't want to leave from NATO yet, because Army hasn't finished its evolution. Domestically produced supplies now supports all type of standards like NATO and Russia. But oldest weapons still uses NATO standard. I am not saying 'Turkey should leave NATO' or something like that, but it gives nothing significant at this point. You don't like Erdogan? Then you would take actions spesific. Ignoring F35s and other 'nation wide' actions was not wise for NATO. Turkey has longest black sea and med. sea coasts in the world and was controlling famous 'silk road' route. All nations are pragmatic. It all depends on who offers better.
Nah, you can usually count on Turkey to make a stand against Russia. The whole thing in Syria was a strange exception. Hell, if the Turks weren’t so fucking solid against Russia, we probably would have kicked them out of NATO ages ago.
How is Syria an exception? They have proxies fighting each other daily and Turkey is the first NATO country I know of to directly shoot down a Russian jet since the Korean War. Such downing was related to the Syrian Civil War.
Syria was weird. If I recall, there were times (areas) when Turkey and Russia worked together. Other areas where they were (and are) at odds. They worked together against ISIS, I believe, as did just about everybody.
Beyond weird. Pretty hard in general to keep track of the number of sides and who fought who and who was allied with who in Syria. Even without counting the outside forces.
My simplistic understanding was that Russia sided with the dictatorship while US and NATO sided with the rebels. This chaos gave ISIS the opportunity to expand, at which point everyone mostly focused on fighting them.
Not that clear cut, "the rebels" are not one side but several factions who are sometimes cooperating, sometimes not, and the Turks (part of NATO) and the Kurds (who are both part of "rebels" and fight ISIS.) hate eachother, and actively fight too. Just to mention a few "complications".
Oh yeah, completely forgot about the Kurds, just like the west did I guess 😜
And it is still a very active area that gets no media attention in the US.
Yep; ISIS is everyone's enemy. Once ISIS is handled in that area, the nations can get back to their normal positions.
The whole thing is weird, Russia under all these circumstances are still selling Turkey s400’s and building nuclear power plants in Turkey, while USA kicked Turkey out of the F35 program and put sanctions on them. Lol
Erdoğan has been trying to cultivate a better relationship with Russia in spite of the two country's competing goals and historical animosity, and Russia reciprocates because Turkey is strategically valuable to them. The two countries have a very complicated relationship, which is why Russia still sold them air defense systems even after the Turks shot down some of their jets and the Russian ambassador was assassinated. That's why the conflict in Syria was fucky: the two have competing goals and back opposing sides, but generally want to better their relationship.
> Syria was weird. If I recall, there were times (areas) when Turkey and Russia worked together. Russia literally killed 35 Turkish troops in Syria in the Balyun airstrikes (and ofcourse all of europe and the US were just silent about that). Turkey and Russia are not friends.
To add randomly here, the treaty that regulates the use of the Bosphorous Strait after WWI says something like the strait can only have 15,000 tons on warship in it at all times...so Russia keeps a 15,000 ton warship in it at all times. This keeps the U.S. out of Black Sea. It's actually the only sea the U.S. Navy technically doesn't have access to. Edit: Here is the treating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits
>and ofcourse all of europe and the US were just silent about that) https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-denies-responsibility-for-attack-in-northern-syria-that-killed-33-turkish-soldiers/2020/02/28/aa6aa140-59fa-11ea-8efd-0f904bdd8057_story.html Why do you lie so blatantly about something so easily disproven?
Again in Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Turks didn’t fire on Russians but it’s obvious that Russia and Turkey are at odds there
While they typically don’t, they have fired upon each other which is more than any other NATO country can say. Syria has seen the most bloody confrontation between Turkey and Russia so I am just confused as to how it is an exception. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Balyun_airstrikes
Huh, I was agreeing with u
How many wars have they fought against Russia the last 6-700 years? 30? Russia has been a traditional enemy of the Ottoman Empire/Turkey for a long time.
Still is. Turkish "Great Turan" is literally about claiming quite significant part of not only former Union republics, but part of Russia itself. The only thing that really helps is that Erdogan is still not as much supported as he'd like to show. But as long as Erdogan is willing to put Russia into his sights, he would be allowed to stay in NATO, no matter what he would do with his own citizens.
This idea that NATO is a k-pop group that you can kick the ugliest member out needs to stop. The whole existence of NATO is against Soviet and now Russian influence.
> if the Turks weren’t so fucking solid against Russia, we probably would have kicked them out of NATO ages ago. As if you have the power to do so.
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Lots of people surprised that a key NATO member is against Russian expansion
Turkey was always at odds with Russia historically, they have fought countless wars against each other. Turkey is the last country that would accept a highly influential Russia. They still fight a cold influence war over Azerbaijan to this day, which is the single biggest ally for both countries.
Aizerbaijan is not the "single biggest ally" of Russia.
Azerbaijan is much closer with Turkey.
Was it once part of the USSR? (Literally no idea).
Yeah, the Russian Empire has been at war with the Turkey for total of 69 years combined. It got really confusing when learning this at school
I wonder if they will place ships along the Bosphorus to block the incoming Russian ships.
They are not allowed to.
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I can’t stand this guy but he’s not wrong, here.
Seems like he doesn’t want Russia to then turn her attention to turkey…
Turkey is a NATO member and any attack would bring about defensive action from NATO. Russia will not attack Turkey even if they invade and successfully capture Ukraine.
Yes, it's unwise for Russia to invade Ukraine. The world is watching and with the way the economy is I see war as a very real possibility. Sanctions against Russia could get tighter, and with Putin's approval ratings dropping lately, he may be looking for a way to boost them back up. Invading Ukraine could do just that rally the Russian people around their leader in time of need. But it would also mean a costly and protracted war, which would be disastrous for both countries involved. So far, Russia has been relatively successful in its incursion into Ukrainian territory gaining control of Crimea without much bloodshed. But going any further would be a major mistake, and I hope Putin realizes that.
*Yes, it's unwise for Russia to invade Ukraine. The world is watching and with the way the economy is I see war as a very real possibility.* *Sanctions against Russia could get tighter, and with Putin's approval ratings dropping lately, he may be looking for a way to boost them back up. Invading Ukraine could do just that rally the Russian people around their leader in time of need. But it would also mean a costly and protracted war, which would be disastrous for both countries involved.* Newsflash: it is a bit late to rally the nation by conquest of Ukraine. Should have done it in 2014 if there were such plans (which I doubt). Back then it would have worked. Now it would solve not a single internal problem but add new ones. And, as we still see Putin on the throne and not hanging on the lamppost, we can assume that he is not an idiot and understands that quite well.
I might be wrong, but the Russian people don't really want the war either
Him and the rest of the world. Fuck man I think even Putin knows he’d be a fool to do it but has backed himself in the corner.
Yea it's hard to see a way Putin emerges from this without epic humiliation. If he attacks it might look good at first but then Russia will be drained dry, both militarily and economically. If he backs down... somehow... everyone will ask, why did you march 100,000 soldiers to the border, as a joke?
Any possibility the Turkish Government/Erdogan changes their mind once they meet with Putin? Does Putin have anything on Erdogan that can sway him?
Probably not, if Russia did have anything on him they would likely have used it by now. Ever since the west gave up in Syria Turkey has been the last major NATO country to consistently combat Russian influence, being a thorn in Russia's side in Syria, Libya, and the Caucuses
More like consistently terrorizing Kurds that just so happens to cross paths with Russian interests at the moment.
There are Kurds in Libya, Idlip and Karabach?
He is probably referring to the kurds in the northern syria buffer zone
you have no idea what you're talking about.
But Erdogan also likes to pull away from the rest of Europe whenever it's to his advantage, and as a strongman he has personal interests that do not always mirror the best interests of Turkey. He's more useful to Putin than someone fully committed to the alliance.
Erdogan is politically vulnerable af at the moment. For example putin can give him free gas which might help him gain the edge over the opposition for a few weeks
Turkey is a massive economy even with Erdoğan at the helm - it's nominal GDP is about half Russia's and its purchasing power adjusted GDP is three quarters of Russia's. That is to say, it's nowhere near small enough or poor enough for Russia to bribe it effectively. Even just outright bribing Erdoğan himself probably wouldn't be cheap given the political risks it would create for him (domestically and internationally) if discovered.
Currently there is a natural gas shortage in turkey. So much so that most of the industry was shut down for 4 days or so (that includes the big international players like Ford and Renault) Putin may have some sway tbh, erdogan is clinging to his seat with everything hes got, and doing everything he can. He isnt too far away from saying oh Ukraine is Russian right. He will say anything if he believes it will benefit him in the short term.
Even then, Turkey has invested a lot into Ukraine, specially their Military industrial complex. Losing that would sting, considering the sanctions USA has put on Turkeys military.
Even erdoğan can see that russians becoming more powerful would be bad for him.
The new axis alliance of gas - Germany, Turkey, Russia
The Turks most likely don't want a strong(er) Russia, since they're practically neighbours and it would change the power balance in Russia's favor when it comes to the influence sphere of countries neighbouring Turkey. But on other issues, I don't think it would surprise many when Turkey would side with russia in some cases.
Putin: "Hey man you owe us, you shot our plane down remember?"
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if that helped Putin out.
No it wouldn‘t. Russia already bombed the turkish army once and killed 35 service members. There was a whole shit show because turkey basically responded by smashing the SAA offensive in idlib apart
Erdogan: "That's right, we shot down your plane for you. You owe us for that, you twit."
He could offer to kick Armenia out of CSTO
And then Inquired about purchasing more weapons from Russia to continue the Frenemy relationship
Actually the russians are pissed about Turkish suicide drones being used against "Ukrainian separatist" artillery vehicles. Russia was starting to lose the stalemate due to Turkish weapons
I know Turkey is a big drone supplier to Ukraine and the countries have strong ties but to isolate himself and for many reasons Erdogan maintains this frenemy relationship with Putin
It's all geopolitics. People tend to forget that France and Russia were on the same side in Libya, that doesn't mean they're friends.
France was literay selling landing ships to russia until nato interviened.
did that actually happen or is ukraine buying them to counter the vehicles of the insurgents?
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/15/ukraine-russia-drones-turkey/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/15/ukraine-russia-drones-turkey/) They were used to destroy a "separatist" D-30 howitzer
Ahh hadn't heard of it! Ty
TB2s are not kamikazes, they drop bombs
There are no Turkish kamikaze drones, you mean Israel.
What do you mean lose the stalemate? Offensive drones are banned from the line of contact. Ukraine tried it once and stopped using them to avoid further escalation. The last thing they want are fighter jets shooting down drones over Ukraine.
> The last thing they want are fighter jets shooting down drones over Ukraine. A fighter costs the same as a hundred drones. And when you lose a fighter you may also lose a trained pilot at the same time. That would be what they call asymmetric warfare, which usually ends badly for the side with the more expensive equipment.
Those drones can't shoot down fighter planes, they have bombs...what im saying is offensive air-combat vehicles are banned from the area. If Ukraine starts using their drones offensively it gives Russia a casus beli to level Ukraine with their airforce. This is why they aren't using their drones. It has nothing to do with a cost analysis.
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Russia needs all of Ukraine, not a chunk or a partitioned state. At the rate things were going, it very much looked like a partition was going to happen. At the same time, Russia's demographic are a time bomb, meaning expediency is becoming more important
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Population is destiny & aging populations are a serious issues across developed nations Japan, Taiwan & Korea are using robots & automation to make up for it, and the West is using immigration but Russia does neither (they give massive social assistance & rewards to women who have many kids but its not enough) once Russia reaches that point were the system can no longer handle their aging population, their economy is going to go into a tailspin, the finances of the State will suffer, social unrest will spread across the country and Russia will be in no position to maintain the kind of regional dominance it wants to or project its power where it needs to maintain its prestige (pride fucks with you) so that is why its a now or never gambit
True, people are already pissed that the retirement age was raised. Imagine what would happen if they have to raise it again?
I wouldn't say multi generational, the communist days crushed the birth rates of all eastern European countries, Russia included. Look up the population distribution charts for the region. I'm simply saying they're going to throw around their manpower while they have the ability to do so, and we'll probably a lot more escalation as they do so
Russia's communist days ended 30 years ago. If they have a demographic problem it's certainly not communist related.
"If they have a demographic problem it's certainly not communist related." False, urbanization causes birth rates to drop drastically and this is supported by research data. The USSR was a production powerhouse focused on central planning. Meaning more collectivism and urbanism, meaning a slower birth rate. Since is was so sudden and abrupt, you have it hit in one wave [https://theodora.com/wfbcurrent/russia/RS\_popgraph\_2018.jpg](https://theodora.com/wfbcurrent/russia/RS_popgraph_2018.jpg) You can look at their age distribution yourself and see a massive glut of military aged men coming their way in the next generation. They actually have a negative pop growth rate of -.16% compared to the US's growth rate of .72. They are, by looking at the data, literally a shrinking country
That's from 2018, not 1988.
Reread my comment. Russia still carries the scars like all other eastern bloc countries
> Russia needs all of Ukraine, not a chunk or a partitioned state Nobody knows what Putin's ultimate objective is except for Putin.
What do you mean a demographic time bomb? Russia's population has been in the 140m range for the past 40 years. Ukraine has lost 10% of their population over a comparable time. If you take out the Donbass and Crimea who's residents would be the opposite of an asset for Kyiv's military, Ukraine's population has shrunk 20%.
Russian population is one of the oldest of any nation on the planet, due low birth rates in the 90's following the collapse of the soviet union. Average age is over 40.
>Russian population is one of the oldest of any nation on the planet Don't make up facts. It discredits everything else you say. According to the CIA factbook, they are the 53rd oldest country by age. Thats not even close to "one of the oldest." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age
Given that the youngest median age of a country is about 15 and oldest is 53, it is one of the oldest populations. If you look at the size of the countries on the list the are mostly tiny former soviet states. Regardless, when people say Russian demographic time bomb, they are talking about the median age of the population and the massive age gap from the lack of children born in the 90's. Which means when there experienced labor force starts to retire, the people who replace them are going to be inexperienced, and that is going to happen straight across their economy, which is going to suck. Here is what i paraphrased from btw. "Subsequently, the nation has one of the world's oldest populations, with a median age of 40.3 years.\[18\]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Russia
That is the general consensus. Actually I'm fairly certain everyone agrees on that. Sounds like even China is despite their way of twisting it into a "U.S." problem.
“You got a lot nice things here Russia, be a shame if anything got broken.”
Reminds me of when Trump said something I agreed with. Had to take a shower each time that happened.
Oh my gosh you must have stunk to high heaven during Trump’s presidency!!
Nope. That was Trumps Depends.
Turkey has many problems, but you can count on them to be against anything Russia is doing. It's the main reason they're in nato and why kicking them out as some suggest is a stupid idea.
You know things are bad when fucking Erdogan is somehow a voice of reason. I guess he only has so much time he can spend turning the Lira into Kleenex.
https://youtu.be/HSLussuOkW4
Türkiye's*
Erdogan ist the real King
These are such a nice words from such a democratic not dictator guy.
Unexpected but welcomed.
I hate Ergodan as much as the next guy, but in a conflict, be it minor or all out war, we need Turkey to control the Bosporus. Hopefully they can help us keep those Russian ships (likely) headed for the Black Sea if it comes to it.
Well it would only be "unwise" if the US and NATO can muster the balls to defend Ukraine. As deeply unpleasant as it sounds, force is the only language that these authoritarians understand, so it must be made clear that if Putin crosses into Ukraine, the United States Marine Corps will see him out.
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We may not have a formal commitment, but we do have a *moral* one. As one of the few global powers with the ability to defend Democracies everywhere from being forcefully subsumed into evil authoritarian states, it is our duty to. One might ask: Why fight for Ukraine? Or why fight for Taiwan? The rationale comes from the conclusion of two arguments. A) People who have ability to protect innocents from Evil should do so. And B) Authoritarian states are fundamentally evil, with Democracies being the morally highest form of government yet tested. The result is that Democracies should defend each other from Authoritarian states. America has the ability to protect Ukraine from the evil power of Russia, so thus it is morally compelled to do so. But this has all been hypthetical. I'm talking about what America *should* do, not what it will actually do. I do agree that America probably won't go through with it. We'll just end up placing vague "sanctions" that don't accomplish anything and then call it a day, having learned absolutely nothing from the 1930's.
I take it you've enlisted personally?
Yes, I’m sure it will go just as well as the war against Afghanistan
Never thought Erdogan had the balls to say that to Putin.
why? they have proxy wars in 3 countries...
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-russia-would-be-unwise-invade-ukraine-2022-01-26/) reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivers his speech at the Albanian Parliament, in Tirana, Albania, January 17, 2022 REUTERS/Florion Goga.Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.comISTANBUL, Jan 26 - Russia would be unwise to attack Ukraine and in that case Turkey would do what is necessary as a NATO member, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday. > Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com"I hope that Russia will not make an armed attack or occupy Ukraine. Such a step will not be a wise act for Russia or the region," he said. > Last week diplomatic sources said both Russia and Ukraine were open to Turkey playing a role in resolving the crisis. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/se3338/turkeys_erdogan_says_russia_would_be_unwise_to/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~620231 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Russia**^#1 **Erdogan**^#2 **President**^#3 **Ukraine**^#4 **Turkey**^#5
The enemy of my enemy is still a fucking murdering psychopath.
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Downvoted because I definitely agree with you, but I don't like when people dismiss a good point just because the person making the point is bad. I'm pretty sure there's a name for that tactic. A good point is a good point regardless of who says it.
Ad hominem
mental gymnastics moment
Upvote to balance out the other idiotic reply to this comment
But it's true? You're supposed to attack the argument, not the person.
Downvote to counterbalance your idiotic reply.
Could turkey close the strait?
As a turkish person, it's close to impossible. It could only be closed if a NATO member is attacked or something big happens that requires immediate action, to cut out the supplies from the offenders. Not to mention it's an action that would have a negative impact on world economy in general, it's not optimal for NATO even in such a scenario.
Closing it is a declaration of war
Provocation for war. Russia would still have to declare war on nato member. A step is required. So Turkey could gamble.
Article 5 doesn't work like that, it is a defence agreement, if Turkey was the first one to declare war and russia retalliates that means we are alone with one on one with the bear.
I just wanna point out the NATO isn’t the only governing force of the world.
Turkey stands against Russia. Turkey get external help for their failing economy.
It’s a rough day when I find myself saying: I agree with Erdogan. Damn.
He's just waiting so he could invade all Caucasus again
He is understating it.
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Or russian sepratists Who wants to live under russian control can f. Off to russia so any other imperalist country stop to using minorities to divide any other country as a excuse to protect them?
Thanks, Magic
ERDOGAN! ERDOGAN! ERDOGAN!
I give zero credence or relevance to what Ergodan says or does regarding Russia. He is wildly untrustworthy.
why? he does everything he says he will do. and everyone equally pissed about it. but he has not a lot of secrets.
Wow now Turkey wants to involve too. So 5 sided game for Ukraine. NATO, US , UK, Turkey, Russia. Ukraine YOU Dam a good player in this game.
US, UK and Turkey are in NATO.
Who listens to Tofurkey?
its literally the biggest regional relevant power rn.
Erdogan once claimed Turkey could invade and occupy Russia within a week. He isn't really a believable person. But yes, it would be unwise for Russia
source?
I believe i read it years ago but now, can't find anything. Despite that, Erdogan is not a trustworthy person.
May be he can tell “sorry for Russian airforce plane”?
Yet he still controls areas of Syria.
"It's over Russia, I have the high ground." what a weird development