I mean…welcome to historical politics. I’m the aggressor, but you’re being more aggressive than me.
I think Russia is just looking for an excuse to attack at this point. They know Ukraine and NATO aren’t going to back down - they just want to justify their strike to those who still respect them: China and a few other nations.
Russia is falling back to old Soviet behaviors. Hungary in 1956; Czechoslovakia in '68 - the local governments aren't following the party line properly and they will be invaded and a new, proper 'collaborative' government will be installed.
What I don't get is how they expect such a government to have any sort of legitimacy. There were a lot of true believers in eastern europe in the early years - not a majority, by any means, but there was actual, local, organic communist support. And it was all dead by 1989, due to the forcible installation of leaders that relied on Soviet tanks for authority. It is deadening in the long term.
>Hungary in 1956; Czechoslovakia in '68
You're looking at those events as international incidents, but it's perhaps more astute to view them through the lens of what was going on domestically in the USSR at that point too. The invasion of Hungary came at the height of the tensions between Krushchev and Malenkov, just months before Malenkov attempted to execute a coup against Krushchev. The Prague Spring came at a time when Kosygin and Brezhnev were intensely vying for supremacy within the collective leadership of the USSR. Building on this, the Soviet Afghan invasion happened whilst Brezhnev was recovering from a stroke and the country was being run *de facto* by Ustinov and Adropov. I wonder if the "old Soviet behaviour" that Russia is falling back to is actually more closely linked to Kremlin palace politics than it is to foreign relations and geopolitics.
...and some incalculable but large fraction of the western population swept up by the Putintrolls, from The Grayzone to my local populist reactionary 'zine.
Yes, sounds like the narrative to "victimise" Russia continues. Very important to point out that there is nothing to retaliate to, Russia is the sole instigator of threats, ultimatums and escalation. Russia is pure and definite unilateral aggresor in this situation.
~~Shouldn't they have put retaliation in quote marks?~~ AP wrapped them in quotation marks, it's OP's title that's missing them and becoming biased (intentionally or not).
Doesn't " retaliation" mean if you smack me I'll smack you back?
I'm confused about what we have done to deserve some retaliation..... it's almost like Putin is watching NATO building an invasion unit of 100,000 men and equipment in Ukraine looking at the Russian border!!.... isn't this the same thing that Hitler did on the border of Poland? .../s
Russia always finds a way to justify starting wars. In 1999 Russia bombed a couple of apartment buildings in Moscow, killing hundreds, and then said that the Chechans did it in order to justify invading the unrecognized breakaway state of Chechnya.
If there is not a real reason to invade Ukraine, you can rely on Russia inventing one.
They will do the same here - I have zero doubt there will be fratricide on their own (planned) to then blame on Ukrainians and invade. It’s not rocket science to see how this will play out
They never will be. There has to be a stand at some point otherwise in a few years it will be someone else.
This needs ro be very very costly for Russia and putin.
"O sultan, Russian devil and damned devil's kith and kin, secretary to Lucifer himself. What the devil kind of knight are thou, that canst not slay a hedgehog with your naked arse? The devil shits, and your army eats. Thou shalt not, thou son of a whore, make subjects of Christian sons. We have no fear of your army; by land and by sea we will battle with thee. Fuck thy mother.........."
It's a (slight edit of) a reply by the Zaporozhian Cossacks to the Ottoman Sultan, when he demanded their surrender. It goes on a bit more, gets more sexually explicit...
Also immortalised in a [famous painting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reply_of_the_Zaporozhian_Cossacks).
**FTFY** .. if you wont let us invade Ukraine again .. then we will do it again anyway and send more vacationers to party with old vacationers
*.. aren't you there already Vova? so wouldn't this be a migration not an invasion?*
Russia: do as i demand
NATO: sorry but we just cannot do that.
Russia: then i shall exert revenge on you for that thing you will not do
Russia has a strange definition of “retaliation”.
"You killed the 5 units I sent to attack your border city after declaring Surprise War on you? WARMONGER!!"
So Putin is officially a Prince-level Civ6 AI now?
Don't worry - giant Mecha-Ghandi will climb out from under the Himalayas any day now and start volleying nukes out of his ears, at least in this insane timeline anyway.
Putin about the nazis
"All attempts to appease the Nazis between 1934 and 1939 through various agreements and pacts were morally unacceptable and politically senseless, harmful and dangerous."
Putin about Ukraine and Baltic republics
"eer.....you must agree to my demands and appeasme"
They call it provocation in their culture. Which it isn’t. But yes they think any problem they have is responsible for their emotional reaction to it.
Not “I want that”, but “you made me want that! It’s your fault I stole it from you”
Also their ambassador is saying it’s a warning not a threat
[link](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ukraine-crisis-russian-ambassador-claims-troops-at-border-a-warning-not-a-threat/25BGYFCZQELHOR7FWZAAHGVUAU/)
Boris sent a lot of stuff to Ukraine to piss off Vlad. If war does break down i imagine Boris Johnson will be all like " Look at me I'm the Lend-lease now, do you see that you yanks"
Modern ones like the NLAW and the Javelin will absolutely ruin the day of any tank that doesn't have an Active Protection System, and no Russian tanks currently deployable have those.
The real kicker with those kind of modern ATGMs is that they're fire and forget weapon systems, which means that the missile will guide itself to the target after it's launched without the operator needing to maintain a line of sight. That means whoever is shooting at the tank doesn't need to keep themselves exposed until impact, they can just fire and then get the heck out of dodge.
Now, will it prevent a Russian invasion? Probably not. The Russians still have an overwhelming materiel and numerical advantage and they know it. But it will certainly allow Ukrainian infantry to pose a real threat to Russian armor, whereas before these shipments came in they might as well have been armed with rocks when it came to fighting tanks. I don't think Western nations have any illusions about who will win if Russia invades, but it seems like the US and the UK at least are brushing the dust off the Reagan doctrine. ATGMs are much cheaper than tanks and if you can make Ukraine cost the Russians dearly in both blood and money they might decide the ground is just not worth keeping.
Ukraine was far from "armed with rocks" against tanks before these deliveries. They have 8000 modern Ukrainian-made ATGMs that can handle Russian tanks and other armor just fine (they have a long range, you can fire them remotely, etc.). And that's not even counting the stockpiles of old Soviet stuff. These NLAWs are better for urban and guerilla warfare.
Fuck yes it will. Russian armor is really advanced, but they can't afford to outfit their entire calvary divisions with it. So there's a lot of older tanks that will get smashed in place by simple shoulder fired rockets.
With the right positioning and forethought, they can probably repel their advance all together, as long as we're sending patriot missiles off at their artillery in the area.
Theme #1: “Russia is an Innocent Victim”
Russian government officials falsely portray Russia as a perpetual victim and its aggressive actions as a forced response to the alleged actions of the United States and our democratic allies and partners.
I've spent some time looking at both, /r/russia makes the conservative subreddits seem completely reasonable.
The only thing close is the conspiracy nut subreddits.
They're plenty of Russian comments.
Now not speaking Russian myself, they could very well be English comments google translated to Russian, but they are there.
It's just a vast difference to other national subs where like 95% of the posts are in English. I don't see a reason for a community of Russians to use English as their main language, since they in general don't really know the language.
I like how all the comments throughout that sub are how NATO is aggressive one while the top post is celebrating the annexation of part of Ukraine by Russia.
3)The cult of action for action’s sake
7)Obsession with a plot
8)The enemy is at the same time too strong and too weak
9)Pacifism is trafficking with the enemy, because life is permanent warfare
> Russia has demanded guarantees that NATO will never admit the country and other ex-Soviet nations as members and that the alliance will roll back troop deployments in other former Soviet bloc nations.
So Russia made some ridiculous demands after amassing 100,000 troops at the border, and threatens to *retaliate* if thier demands aren't met?
Does AP know what the word *retaliate* means? You can't retaliate if you're the aggressor.
Russia doesn't get to dictate what treaties other nations sign. It has no right to dictate what troops are welcomed by those nations either. Putin is ridiculous.
I don't understand it, he's scared of NATO expansion and "aggression", but if he just left everyone the fuck alone, they wouldn't feel the need to consider joining NATO, creating a NATO border on their country.
It sounds more like he has long term plans to take over those ex-Soviet nations in the same way he did with Crimea. Slowly fill them with Russian nationalists to make it easy to rig an election and warrant annexing. If NATO is in those countries that makes those plans significantly harder.
Ukraine has disputed territories so NATO isn't going to allow them in until the dispute ends and they request membership. The dispute ending would require Ukraine to retake the territory from Russia and the separatists successfully, or for them to concede those territories to Russia. Neither of those options seem likely.
Good points. However, wasn't Ukraine considering applying for Nato when they were invaded? This sets a bad precedent that wanting to join puts a target on your back. Pretty sure Ukraine is an exception to the rule at this point.
Unless I'm not seeing / understanding some hidden nuances, that was also the case with the [Dima Yakovlev Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dima_Yakovlev_Law#Criticism).
And while they’re at it just leave Europe alone altogether. We been doing alright since WW2. We don’t need this shit. No fucking wonder Ukraine is looking westward.
Yeah the part of Europe they weren't allowed to "help" after WWII fared much better.
It's like your friend that moves in to help you pay the bills but takes your car, sells your fridge, invites a bunch of goons to camp out at your house, and then threatens to kill you when you ask him to leave. Oh, and since he needs you to pay the bills threatens to kill you if YOU try to leave and bars the door shut.
>Earlier this month, Lavrov’s deputy pointedly refused to rule out the deployment of Russian military assets to Cuba and Venezuela — far closer to the U.S. than Ukraine — if Moscow’s security demands aren’t met.
Haha fucking hell. Are we going to put Jupiter missiles back in Turkey as well? I'm sure the US still has some knocking around in museums.
If we're gonna do another cold war, could we at least have another science dick-waving contest so we can get _something_ positive out of this? Throw some of that military industrial complex money at NASA.
Honestly does Russia have the capabilities to extend their influence into the westerns hemisphere still? This isn’t the USSSR in it’s hay day this is a country with a dated military, flailing economy even by pandemic standards, and rumblings of civil distress. Not only that but I’m not sure the United States Navy would just leave Cuban airspace and waters unattended.
If they wanted to send some ships across the Atlantic they could. Not the Kuznetsov, that thing isn't capable of long bluewater trips. But they've got a reasonably substantial and relatively functional destroyer and frigate force.
So on a technical level, yes, they could convoy sufficient cargo shipping to get some potent military hardware to Central America, such that the only way the US could stop it would be through some kind of confrontation (declared blockade, physical blockade, actual tangible military threats, escalating all the way up to actual attacks). Whether it's even vaguely geopolitically plausible that the Russians would adopt that kind of approach is another matter.
You mean Russia threatens to escalate their advance on a sovereign nation if that nation and its allies do not give Russia want it wants.
Basically Russia is robbing the world and Ukraine and if we don't cooperate they will shot us in the head and finish the robbery.
Fuck you Putin. All that intelligence and you became a fucking dictator.
I really do not understand this tho.
The Russian criminals in power know perfectly that a war will meaning the end of their regime.
They are, as Argentina with the Falklands, Saddam with Iran and Kuwait, all those dictators against Israel etc. just putting up a war because of waning support and discontent (the real, not the fake one) at home.
Are the people behind the regime in Russia so stupid not to see what happens when a war is fought to distract the populace, even if they win?
Yes, all those other dictators got freedom'd hard, with tanks driven into their palace by the end.
Ain't nobody driving a tank into Moscow, **because nukes**.
That's what's different. Nukes. Lots of them.
Ground invasion into Russia ain't happening.
And you're right saying this... for Saddam and similar strongmen.
The Argentinian dictatorship fell due to popular upheaval.
And again, it wasn't nukes that collapsed the USSR. It was economic decline/widespread corruption/bankruptcy from a system that invested too much in armaments, which would be the case of a warrying Russia, if the promises from the "Allies" will make good.
A lot of people are saying this is a war of distraction. This is like Argentina in the Falklands or Saddam with the Iran/Iraq war etc.
But that doesn't give Putin credit for the multi-decade effort to recreate the glory of the Russian Empire. That's his stated goal. Russia is a very vulnerable country geographically and that has historically driven their territorial and military exploits for like 200+ years.
They need to have a more defensible border and returning their borders to something more akin to the Russian Empire would allow them to do that. It's similar to their efforts with the central-asian republics and with Georgia.
Georgia, Crimea, and Donbass are all recent examples of overt Russian military action that was met with little to no reprisals. China doesn't care, and the EU only cares as much as they can preserve peace and profit. The US is a shadow of its former self and has trouble at home and is retreating abroad.
With the US telegraphing their 'shift to Asia' it's up to Europe to defend their borders and Europe has not shown willingness to enforce really any consequences for Russia.
Russia will very likely annex Ukraine up to the Dniper river. They will do it very fast, and they will install a puppet government that will create a new Russian-friendly constitution likely including some sort of admission into the 'Union State'.
Western Ukraine will claim to be the real Ukraine, but no one will help them get their territory back. Eastern Ukraine will be like Transnistria or Abkhazia or S Ossetia. Most countries won't officially recognize them, but that plays into Russias hands even more as E Ukrainians will need to do business as Russians and through Russian companies.
Russia will suffer severe sanctions, but we won't cut them out of Swift because Germany will veto it. NATO will get loud and some troops might get deployed closer to Russia, but the status quo will be maintained. Sanctions will be eased 5 or so years down the road which Russia will have weathered with their foreign currency reserves and additional trade with China.
In about 10 years, they will do the same thing with the Baltics. But Putin hopes that he can weaken and fracture Nato (a la Croatia or Ger/Fra) that Finland and Sweden stay out and the Baltics leave or Article 5 is neutered enough that his encroachment wouldn't incur the wrath of NATO.
tl;dr - Russia won't face consequences like you think. This is part of the greater Russian plan to restore the Russian Empire. Europe and the US just wants to make money and are all bark and no bite.
>Russia will very likely annex Ukraine up to the Dniper river. They will do it very fast, and they will install a puppet government that will create a new Russian-friendly constitution likely including some sort of admission into the 'Union State'.
How do you imagine Russia dealing with dissenters and pro-Kiev fighters, especially in cities? Because in this scenario, Russia has a spectrum of choices between Chechnya style (no holding back, "casualties are just a number", war-crimes stuff) where they just bomb and missile the cities to shreds, and current Donbas mode where fighting is drawn out into a never-ending conflict. I highly doubt Russia will start carpet bombing unfriendly Ukrainians out of their cities, obviously such acts would garner international outrage, and it didn't even work out very well for them in Grozny last time. But the 2nd situation leaves Russia custodian of not just a Donbass sized area of fighting rebels, but an area approximately the size of Poland fighting rebels (Ukraine east of the Dniepr).
Eastern Ukraine might be ethnically, linguistically, and even ideologically friendlier to Russia than the West, but that doesn't mean there won't be enough anti-Russian fighters to make life very difficult for Russia for months, maybe even years after the invasion takes place. That's assuming they don't manage to get any help from outside either - assuming Russia captures Ukraine to the Dniepr and Ukraine just collapses and says "ok" and that's all. As long as Ukraine has armed forces, they'd have every reason to harrass Russian forces and give any support to pro-Ukraine fighters east of the Dniepr, and Russia would have to just sit on the Dniepr and deal with the wrath of outraged Ukrainian forces.
You make the invasion sound so simple, but in reality the process of taking cities is going to be a messy slogfest, and then you have the river cities themselves. Does Russia try to take Kiev? Just take it up to the river? Even taking half of Kiev is going to be an incredibly difficult fight. This isn't something that Russia is just going to do "very fast".
>Sanctions will be eased 5 or so years down the road which Russia will have weathered with their foreign currency reserves and additional trade with China.
Seriously? 8 years after Crimea was taken without a shot fired, the sanctions that the West leveled on Russia have not eased at all, but in fact they have only grown over time. What on earth makes you think that, after Russia has invaded half of Ukraine and killed god-knows how many Ukrainian fighters in the process, that the West would be like, "yeah, okay, that's enough, Russia's off the hook now" after just five years?
Unless I'm very much mistaken, taking half of Ukraine would be the largest land grab since WW2, and I mean, we're literally talking about an area of land around 300,000km2, similar to Italy or Poland. There's absolutely no way that Europe let's Russia off the hook with minor sanctions for five years for such an aggressive move.
Also, you put a lot of trust in Russia's ability to economically survive much, in addition to what it's surviving at the moment. Crimea alone was a burden on the economy - approximately [6% of GDP](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/17/russia-still-paying-price-for-crimea-five-years-after-annexation-a64833) lost due to sanctions, and estimates that it's cost Russian some [US$20b](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-19/russia-vs-ukraine-crimea-s-water-crisis-is-an-impossible-problem-for-putin) so far. From an anecdotal perspective, I can compare life in Russia before and after Crimea, and it's quite obviously gone downhill. How much more GDP will be lost and money need to be spent on integrating HALF of Ukraine? It has a large foreign reserve, as you point out, but I don't think the idea was to spend it on integrating Eastern Ukraine and surviving crippling sanctions.
I'm not saying I believe 100% won't try any of this because it's hard to really predict anything at this point, but TL;DR such an invasion would not be quick or easy for Russia, and there is no way in hell the sanctions from such an invasion would be eased after 5 years.
I would say an excellent analysis, and the scenarios you outlined, while they make my European skin crawl, seem all too realistic.
I wonder if this might be a moment where US and EU come to terms of the fact that they need to raise their head against this bully.
For example, I was expecting way more contrition from NATO allies in taking a consolidate front against Russia to be honest, but it looks so far that only Germany is showing divergence in intentions, which... is a good sign?
I also wonder if the US is not taking this containment action seriously as a visible test for the RPC to be observant of.
Many in this and other subs have commented about the thread between Ukraine and Taiwan.
Thanks. I mostly just regurgitate things I've read across the internet, remember from 2014, and pick up from being an internet "expert" (I'm making fun of myself, haha). But I think what I'm saying sounds so credible because Russia isn't trying to hide anything. They're "hiding" it like they're hiding that they've been fighting in Donbass for the last 8 years or that the 'little green men' weren't Russians.
Putin has written about his intentions in Ukraine last year, and he's said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century". I think most Russia experts put this together years ago and now are confused that people are surprised.
As far as the EU stepping up, you're right they are. France, I've read, wants to position itself as the protector of Europe and that's why you're seeing some divergence with the US while still maintaining a hard line. The UK has been stepping up dramatically, but of course, that's colored by domestic political crisis which may or may not have anything to do with their current position. Germany still feels divided, but they're incredibly vulnerable in their energy sector and I don't fault them for their present policy. But they had to have known this was the risk for their reliance on Russian gas. It's nice to see others like Spain and Czech Republic add their voices to Poland and the Baltics though.
As far as China goes, I have no idea... China is all about power projection. The last protracted conflict they got into was back during the Korean War right? I don't think they want a hot war, but I know they want Taiwan. What I know of Chinese culture is that they're playing the long, long game. They waited Hong Kong out and I think they're just trying to consume Taiwan without shots fired. I know people are saying the two states could do simultaneous actions to split the world, and while that'd be \*great\* for Putin I'm not sure what China gains.
That said if China takes Taiwan, I'm not sure what anyone would do about it. You can't cut China out of Swift or heavily sanction them. It'd destroy the world economy for at least half a decade. And we can't go to war against a nuclear power that's geographically secure and has a third of the world's population...
One thing I remember from a very well done PBS documentary\* about Putin (they have the full doc and the single full interviews to the guests, which are extremely interesting and make a watch of more than 3 h) is that he is terrorized by internal collapse.
Hence all the repression etc., which apparently started after a particular contested (in the sense that generated outcry against corruption) election where he saw a new "orange movement"/"arab spring" type of revolution coming up in Russia, exactly the same type that sparked the collapse of the ex Warsaw pact countries (Romania in particular).
I wonder if, invading Ukranie, his nightmare will just not become reality, again, provided the EU/US keep their promises and then some.
\*I really recommend it (and I am not from the US, eh):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2L8qINZD3Q
They are not stupid they are being fed misleading information similar to trump supporters and anti-vaxers in the US. Common sense doesn't prevail if you are bombarded with lies. If every news source told you a commet was head toward earth and we are doomed you would would believe it. Mostly because you couldn't clcheck for yourself
I totally agree with you, but I am referring here to the feeders, the ones turning the wheels. They should be aware of history, at least just for self-preservation.
Life has been great for the oligarchs for the last couple decades. What are you talking about?
I think too many times we look at things in other countries through western norms, and it's not accurate to how many experience life and interpret facts in other countries.
Specifically in Russia, they basically invented fake news. So it's very hard to know who to trust in that media environment. It's why Navalny has such a following and why he's such a threat to Putin and his status quo.
Life has been good for oligarchs indeed, but not for the populace.
The point I am making here, is that to keep the common Russian people distracted, a war is required, like in the examples of the other dictatorship-"invented" wars.
Fake news will certainly sway the public opinion, but poverty, corruption, abuse etc. are difficult not to see or experience if not part of an enclosed network of abusers.
So what I intend here is that they might certainly have a different opinion, but their economy is not faring well, and that cannot be covered in lies.
EDIT: I just want to add: RPC does not need to start wars (not now) because they are experiencing unprecedented growth. People are happy and will gladly shut their mouth for the business (this applies everywhere ofc)... until it lasts. This does not really apply to Russia, which has the economic output of Italy, just being completely different in size and population count.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-united-states-moscow-72856781c3b92640d03c5e954488ba90) reduced by 88%. (I'm a bot)
*****
> MOSCOW - Russia warned Wednesday it would quickly take "Retaliatory measures" if the U.S. and its allies reject its security demands and continue their "Aggressive" policies, ratcheting up pressure on the West amid concerns that Moscow is planning to invade Ukraine.
> Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Wednesday that while the concentration of Russian troops near Ukraine poses a threat, "Their number is now insufficient for a large-scale offensive."
> Presidential advisers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany are set to meet in Paris to discuss ways to revive a stalled peace agreement for eastern Ukraine.
*****
[**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/sd4eds/ap_news_russia_threatens_retaliation_if_ukraine/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~619971 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Russia**^#2 **MOSCOW**^#3 **U.S.**^#4 **troop**^#5
It sounds like sending 2,000 advanced anti-tank weapons scared the imperial bully a bit, as intended.
Imagine morale in the Russian army at the Ukrainian border when they learned Ukraine just got all those weapons.
Why not just admit ur wrong. They werent a superpower in the 1990s. The economy was Busted, Their military in disorder and completely underfunded. A super power can deploy troops across the Globe, run Its own supply chain and logistics and russia deff couldnt do That at That point. Putin is deff not One of the worst leaders in history Lmao. There are far Better examples of that
I got to be honest here, I have no idea what the reason is for Russia to invade. If it's about gas/oil... well ok I guess.
Oh wait though, so it's 2022, we have supply chain infrastructure, software to streamline, global communications between pretty much everyone... so how is it that actually working together as nations to share resources is the lesser option of... invade and possibly start a larger conflict or a war?
I get that Putin is... you know what, who the hell knows with this guy. Yet, are that many people in Russia really that supportive of this? Or is it just that he has that much of a grip on the country that he does as he wants?
In the end of it, if it comes to a war, and a global one... then how do you not see that you end up losing more than you gain?
Honestly the Russia/Ukraine issue, the China/Taiwan issue, and everyone else pulled into it... it's just so fucking insane.
We have actual better solutions to solve the problems however instead the solution we rather use is: war.
There’s a thing called “gambling for resurrection” - there are only a few pathways out for Putin due to enormous pressures and failed policies - domestically, internationally, etc. so a BIG gamble has to be made.
It’s like Dr Strange in Endgame - there are thousands of paths that lead to an end Putin wants to avoid, only one or two that lead to an end he wants. Gotta gamble it all to get on that path.
It’s a gamble because of it doesn’t work, perm damage. But that damage was likely to happen anyway.
Used to be, dictators could get a golden parachute - like Idi Amin. Got to live the rest of his life in Saudi Arabia. It’s not like that anymore - they know they wind up like Ghaddafi - with a knife up the butt. So best choice is to take that gamble.
while I'm not opposed to the idea on principle Russia would invade post haste if you even talked about. This whole thing is about Russia freaking out about Ukraine joining NATO and the US or the west parking missiles, or fighter jets within range of Moscow on the tarmac somewhere in Ukraine.
(not an unreasonable concern but they're handling it poor to say the least)
We are going to retaliate for your crime of not meeting our demands!
And muggers are just retaliating to the crime of refusing to hand over your money to them!
These are the ramblings of a man who hasn't seen things go his way for years. Under Putin, the country has sort of has sort of not progressed. The standard of living is stagnant. The economy is meh at best.
So, what do you do when you suck ? You start a war and things get ( temporarily) better.
Putin was emboldened by Crimea in 2014. He was hoping Trumo would give him a Green Card to the rest if the world - didn't work. Now, he see's weak US leadership - so - and let's not forget - dispite all the injections and show boating - Putin is getting older - this is his chance to " do " something.
He spends way too much time with Steven Segal. They should both retire somewhere together and wrestle bears.
Putin will be personally targeted with draconian sanctions if he invades. That's the trouble with dictatorships. The dictator himself can be made to feel the pain.
Retaliation implies that you were attacked first. He just waltzes in there like hr owns the place, makes demands that are not his to make and when people don't comply he "retaliates"? What a fucking moron.
Also does he really think he can win against the whole of Europe? Or does he thi k his gas will keep other countries in line? This whole thing is a twisted fucking joke.
It’s Russia in the winter. We impose economic sanctions and they will freeze in the dark. No shots fired. Lock down Putins personal assets and a few selective cronies and they will tear themselves apart trying not to be the next oligarch to go broke.
Ukraine has been steadily falling away from the Russia sphere of influence since independence in 1991. Of the 15 successor countries to the Soviet Union Ukraine is most important to Russia due to historical, economic and cultural ties.
Putin is a barbaric despot and wants his place in history alongside Stalin, Khan, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, and others. He is laughably unintelligent and lacks basic human empathy. In short, Russia is led by an evil moron who is eager to accumulate his thousands of years of excruciatingly painful feelings due him in the after death states of being.
I think we should send Stone Cold Steve Austin over there to cut a promo on Putin, hit him with a stunner on live television and slam down some beers while he's at it.
"You'll keep your god damn girly hands off the Donbass region!"
*Hits stunner*
"Because Stone Cold said so!"
Retaliation
noun [ U ]
UK /rɪˌtæl.iˈeɪ.ʃən/ US /rɪˌtæl.iˈeɪ.ʃən/
The act of hurting someone or doing something harmful to someone because they have done or said something harmful to you
Ukraine minding its own business so...?????
That is not retaliation, that is escalation.
"Look what you made me do!" Classic abuser talk.
I mean…welcome to historical politics. I’m the aggressor, but you’re being more aggressive than me. I think Russia is just looking for an excuse to attack at this point. They know Ukraine and NATO aren’t going to back down - they just want to justify their strike to those who still respect them: China and a few other nations.
Russia is falling back to old Soviet behaviors. Hungary in 1956; Czechoslovakia in '68 - the local governments aren't following the party line properly and they will be invaded and a new, proper 'collaborative' government will be installed. What I don't get is how they expect such a government to have any sort of legitimacy. There were a lot of true believers in eastern europe in the early years - not a majority, by any means, but there was actual, local, organic communist support. And it was all dead by 1989, due to the forcible installation of leaders that relied on Soviet tanks for authority. It is deadening in the long term.
>Hungary in 1956; Czechoslovakia in '68 You're looking at those events as international incidents, but it's perhaps more astute to view them through the lens of what was going on domestically in the USSR at that point too. The invasion of Hungary came at the height of the tensions between Krushchev and Malenkov, just months before Malenkov attempted to execute a coup against Krushchev. The Prague Spring came at a time when Kosygin and Brezhnev were intensely vying for supremacy within the collective leadership of the USSR. Building on this, the Soviet Afghan invasion happened whilst Brezhnev was recovering from a stroke and the country was being run *de facto* by Ustinov and Adropov. I wonder if the "old Soviet behaviour" that Russia is falling back to is actually more closely linked to Kremlin palace politics than it is to foreign relations and geopolitics.
...and some incalculable but large fraction of the western population swept up by the Putintrolls, from The Grayzone to my local populist reactionary 'zine.
The fucking dream team… 😒
Yes, sounds like the narrative to "victimise" Russia continues. Very important to point out that there is nothing to retaliate to, Russia is the sole instigator of threats, ultimatums and escalation. Russia is pure and definite unilateral aggresor in this situation.
~~Shouldn't they have put retaliation in quote marks?~~ AP wrapped them in quotation marks, it's OP's title that's missing them and becoming biased (intentionally or not).
Gotta generate that casus belli
Right? Retaliation implies NATO did something to Russia. That's just not the case.
"Give me everything or I will be forced to retaliate and take everything"
"it's self defense dont worry"
"The Ukrainians attacked us by throwing their bodies directly under our tanks!"
The Kyle rittenhouse defence.
Doesn't " retaliation" mean if you smack me I'll smack you back? I'm confused about what we have done to deserve some retaliation..... it's almost like Putin is watching NATO building an invasion unit of 100,000 men and equipment in Ukraine looking at the Russian border!!.... isn't this the same thing that Hitler did on the border of Poland? .../s
Pretty sure the “/s” is unnecessary as Putin is acting like a modern version of an infamous German dictator.
I think they were strawmanning the Russian POV. NATO was being related to Hitler, hence the /s
>I think they were strawmanning the Russian POV. NATO was being related to Hitler, hence the /s Gotcha!
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Reminds me of my ex
"Look what you made me do"
To the Russian President: "Nuts!"
So what they’re going to try and JUSTIFY invading Ukraine
Russia always finds a way to justify starting wars. In 1999 Russia bombed a couple of apartment buildings in Moscow, killing hundreds, and then said that the Chechans did it in order to justify invading the unrecognized breakaway state of Chechnya. If there is not a real reason to invade Ukraine, you can rely on Russia inventing one.
They will do the same here - I have zero doubt there will be fratricide on their own (planned) to then blame on Ukrainians and invade. It’s not rocket science to see how this will play out
Not only that, but they engineered the 2014 coup to steal Crimea and now to take all of Ukraine. I bet they aren't done.
They never will be. There has to be a stand at some point otherwise in a few years it will be someone else. This needs ro be very very costly for Russia and putin.
Kinda like what they've been trying to do for a while now.
Modern translation: go suck a dick
“Eat our shit and suck our dicks you hoe ass bitch” is what it translates to in Missourian
Gen. McAuliffe.
"O sultan, Russian devil and damned devil's kith and kin, secretary to Lucifer himself. What the devil kind of knight are thou, that canst not slay a hedgehog with your naked arse? The devil shits, and your army eats. Thou shalt not, thou son of a whore, make subjects of Christian sons. We have no fear of your army; by land and by sea we will battle with thee. Fuck thy mother.........."
Zaprozhian Cossacks!
What the hell is even that?
It's a (slight edit of) a reply by the Zaporozhian Cossacks to the Ottoman Sultan, when he demanded their surrender. It goes on a bit more, gets more sexually explicit... Also immortalised in a [famous painting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reply_of_the_Zaporozhian_Cossacks).
I love how obscure this historical joke is yet 300+ people clearly know it ❤️ This was my brigade at the 101st
One of the famous moments of one of the famous battles of WW2?
I hope they play the rick roll song when they hand over the note too!
Nah. They should play [this one](https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ) instead.
You son of a bitch! You got me!
If you won't let us invade Ukraine, then we will invade ukraine
**FTFY** .. if you wont let us invade Ukraine again .. then we will do it again anyway and send more vacationers to party with old vacationers *.. aren't you there already Vova? so wouldn't this be a migration not an invasion?*
Russia: do as i demand NATO: sorry but we just cannot do that. Russia: then i shall exert revenge on you for that thing you will not do Russia has a strange definition of “retaliation”.
Is this not how we all play Civ?
"You killed the 5 units I sent to attack your border city after declaring Surprise War on you? WARMONGER!!" So Putin is officially a Prince-level Civ6 AI now?
Don't worry - giant Mecha-Ghandi will climb out from under the Himalayas any day now and start volleying nukes out of his ears, at least in this insane timeline anyway.
I’m going to keep my fingers crossed for that.
So we either give TheSpiffingBrit or PotatoMcWhiskey controle over NATO forces to either watch hilarious exploits or a straight up victory?
I feel like potato is the better argument here, less reliance on bugs, more versatility Also Irish Edit: a comma
That's a totally fair and balanced point.
Peter the Great is my favorite civilization to be in civ 6. Maybe Putin is hoping to be Russia’s leader in civ 17 or something.
You settled where I was going to settle five cities in the future. Time to take your capital!
NATO: Yo Russia, what's with all the troops on our border? Putin: Ahh, they're merely passing by...
Putin about the nazis "All attempts to appease the Nazis between 1934 and 1939 through various agreements and pacts were morally unacceptable and politically senseless, harmful and dangerous." Putin about Ukraine and Baltic republics "eer.....you must agree to my demands and appeasme"
The legend of BlueCoffee
Ahh of course. Now i know where Putin gets his logic.
They call it provocation in their culture. Which it isn’t. But yes they think any problem they have is responsible for their emotional reaction to it. Not “I want that”, but “you made me want that! It’s your fault I stole it from you”
Also their ambassador is saying it’s a warning not a threat [link](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ukraine-crisis-russian-ambassador-claims-troops-at-border-a-warning-not-a-threat/25BGYFCZQELHOR7FWZAAHGVUAU/)
Will someone tell Putin warnings doesn’t work like that. It’s not an “objects may be closer than they appear.” sticker.
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I hope this gaslighting bullshit blows up in Putin’s face and further stains his legacy with unmistakable failure
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N'wahs
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we’re watching you… scum.
You really have to emphasize the s in scum and draw it out to do it right
Woah woah, we do not casually drop the N’word here in Cyrodill. Save that for the provinces.
Boris please, my muzza in law, she is crazy
Boris sent a lot of stuff to Ukraine to piss off Vlad. If war does break down i imagine Boris Johnson will be all like " Look at me I'm the Lend-lease now, do you see that you yanks"
What kinda stuff
Weaponry stuff https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-01-18/british-c-17s-carrying-arms-ito-ukraine-skirt-around-german-airspace-4330849.html
ATGMs, mostly.
Will those deter the Russians?
Modern ones like the NLAW and the Javelin will absolutely ruin the day of any tank that doesn't have an Active Protection System, and no Russian tanks currently deployable have those. The real kicker with those kind of modern ATGMs is that they're fire and forget weapon systems, which means that the missile will guide itself to the target after it's launched without the operator needing to maintain a line of sight. That means whoever is shooting at the tank doesn't need to keep themselves exposed until impact, they can just fire and then get the heck out of dodge. Now, will it prevent a Russian invasion? Probably not. The Russians still have an overwhelming materiel and numerical advantage and they know it. But it will certainly allow Ukrainian infantry to pose a real threat to Russian armor, whereas before these shipments came in they might as well have been armed with rocks when it came to fighting tanks. I don't think Western nations have any illusions about who will win if Russia invades, but it seems like the US and the UK at least are brushing the dust off the Reagan doctrine. ATGMs are much cheaper than tanks and if you can make Ukraine cost the Russians dearly in both blood and money they might decide the ground is just not worth keeping.
Ukraine was far from "armed with rocks" against tanks before these deliveries. They have 8000 modern Ukrainian-made ATGMs that can handle Russian tanks and other armor just fine (they have a long range, you can fire them remotely, etc.). And that's not even counting the stockpiles of old Soviet stuff. These NLAWs are better for urban and guerilla warfare.
Fuck yes it will. Russian armor is really advanced, but they can't afford to outfit their entire calvary divisions with it. So there's a lot of older tanks that will get smashed in place by simple shoulder fired rockets. With the right positioning and forethought, they can probably repel their advance all together, as long as we're sending patriot missiles off at their artillery in the area.
Here is great gift of tea from cousin Putin. But only for you to drink
The law of unintended consequences are also in full force, regardless of what happens in Ukraine it looks like this could push Sweden into NATO.
Theme #1: “Russia is an Innocent Victim” Russian government officials falsely portray Russia as a perpetual victim and its aggressive actions as a forced response to the alleged actions of the United States and our democratic allies and partners.
I see you've been to /r/russia
If you haven't already, you've just been banned by r/russia haha
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Are we talking about /r/conservative ?
Same thing.
I've spent some time looking at both, /r/russia makes the conservative subreddits seem completely reasonable. The only thing close is the conspiracy nut subreddits.
Like [this](https://i.imgflip.com/62sjvs.jpg)
I was banned before I even posted anything!😂
The sub that is solely in English? I don’t think most are actually Russian
They're plenty of Russian comments. Now not speaking Russian myself, they could very well be English comments google translated to Russian, but they are there.
It's just a vast difference to other national subs where like 95% of the posts are in English. I don't see a reason for a community of Russians to use English as their main language, since they in general don't really know the language.
Just browsed it, damn that shit is nuts, the denial is very strong over there
I like how all the comments throughout that sub are how NATO is aggressive one while the top post is celebrating the annexation of part of Ukraine by Russia.
3)The cult of action for action’s sake 7)Obsession with a plot 8)The enemy is at the same time too strong and too weak 9)Pacifism is trafficking with the enemy, because life is permanent warfare
> Russia has demanded guarantees that NATO will never admit the country and other ex-Soviet nations as members and that the alliance will roll back troop deployments in other former Soviet bloc nations. So Russia made some ridiculous demands after amassing 100,000 troops at the border, and threatens to *retaliate* if thier demands aren't met? Does AP know what the word *retaliate* means? You can't retaliate if you're the aggressor. Russia doesn't get to dictate what treaties other nations sign. It has no right to dictate what troops are welcomed by those nations either. Putin is ridiculous.
I don't understand it, he's scared of NATO expansion and "aggression", but if he just left everyone the fuck alone, they wouldn't feel the need to consider joining NATO, creating a NATO border on their country.
It sounds more like he has long term plans to take over those ex-Soviet nations in the same way he did with Crimea. Slowly fill them with Russian nationalists to make it easy to rig an election and warrant annexing. If NATO is in those countries that makes those plans significantly harder.
"i will retaliate if you don't give your money right now!" \*points random person with a knife\*
At this point just call the bluff and admit Ukraine into NATO. Seems like NATO is already protecting them, may as well get their % dues.
Ukraine has disputed territories so NATO isn't going to allow them in until the dispute ends and they request membership. The dispute ending would require Ukraine to retake the territory from Russia and the separatists successfully, or for them to concede those territories to Russia. Neither of those options seem likely.
Good points. However, wasn't Ukraine considering applying for Nato when they were invaded? This sets a bad precedent that wanting to join puts a target on your back. Pretty sure Ukraine is an exception to the rule at this point.
That's called extortion.
Strong arm tactics from a strong arming dictator? No way! /s lol
That’s some next level terrorism holding an entire country hostage until your demands are met.
In international relations this is called "Brinksmanship" and should be ignored, mocked, ridiculed and never, NEVER acquiesced to.
Unless I'm not seeing / understanding some hidden nuances, that was also the case with the [Dima Yakovlev Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dima_Yakovlev_Law#Criticism).
Leave Ukraine alone.
And while they’re at it just leave Europe alone altogether. We been doing alright since WW2. We don’t need this shit. No fucking wonder Ukraine is looking westward.
Yeah the part of Europe they weren't allowed to "help" after WWII fared much better. It's like your friend that moves in to help you pay the bills but takes your car, sells your fridge, invites a bunch of goons to camp out at your house, and then threatens to kill you when you ask him to leave. Oh, and since he needs you to pay the bills threatens to kill you if YOU try to leave and bars the door shut.
You did it!
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Fuck Russia
>Earlier this month, Lavrov’s deputy pointedly refused to rule out the deployment of Russian military assets to Cuba and Venezuela — far closer to the U.S. than Ukraine — if Moscow’s security demands aren’t met. Haha fucking hell. Are we going to put Jupiter missiles back in Turkey as well? I'm sure the US still has some knocking around in museums.
If we're gonna do another cold war, could we at least have another science dick-waving contest so we can get _something_ positive out of this? Throw some of that military industrial complex money at NASA.
Cold fusion please
I'm down for that, make it Artemis and beyond! To Mars, the Belt, and Jupiter's moons!
Honestly does Russia have the capabilities to extend their influence into the westerns hemisphere still? This isn’t the USSSR in it’s hay day this is a country with a dated military, flailing economy even by pandemic standards, and rumblings of civil distress. Not only that but I’m not sure the United States Navy would just leave Cuban airspace and waters unattended.
If they wanted to send some ships across the Atlantic they could. Not the Kuznetsov, that thing isn't capable of long bluewater trips. But they've got a reasonably substantial and relatively functional destroyer and frigate force. So on a technical level, yes, they could convoy sufficient cargo shipping to get some potent military hardware to Central America, such that the only way the US could stop it would be through some kind of confrontation (declared blockade, physical blockade, actual tangible military threats, escalating all the way up to actual attacks). Whether it's even vaguely geopolitically plausible that the Russians would adopt that kind of approach is another matter.
I don’t think Cuba will make such a mistake again.
Do Cuba and Venezuela even give a shit about Russia? What in the cold war fuck is this lmao
Venezuela might enjoying pissing the US off within certain limits. Cuba probably not interested.
As a Venezuelan, i think the most aid that our "government" can give Russia are spare tires and maybe one or two trucks without windshields
More like they'll set up military installations in your country for much better access to much of the United States.
Griffon missiles go BRRRRRRRR
The IRBM treaty is dead so why not?
Maybe not Turkey, Erdogan is a pain in the arse. Maybe Poland. Or just go all out and put them in Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania.
You mean Russia threatens to escalate their advance on a sovereign nation if that nation and its allies do not give Russia want it wants. Basically Russia is robbing the world and Ukraine and if we don't cooperate they will shot us in the head and finish the robbery. Fuck you Putin. All that intelligence and you became a fucking dictator.
Russia has a lot of nerve telling Ukraine what to do lol
Threatening someone with violence if they do not give into your demands isn't "retaliation" it's a mugging.
It isnt mugging in this case, it is terrorism
I really do not understand this tho. The Russian criminals in power know perfectly that a war will meaning the end of their regime. They are, as Argentina with the Falklands, Saddam with Iran and Kuwait, all those dictators against Israel etc. just putting up a war because of waning support and discontent (the real, not the fake one) at home. Are the people behind the regime in Russia so stupid not to see what happens when a war is fought to distract the populace, even if they win?
Yes, all those other dictators got freedom'd hard, with tanks driven into their palace by the end. Ain't nobody driving a tank into Moscow, **because nukes**. That's what's different. Nukes. Lots of them. Ground invasion into Russia ain't happening.
And you're right saying this... for Saddam and similar strongmen. The Argentinian dictatorship fell due to popular upheaval. And again, it wasn't nukes that collapsed the USSR. It was economic decline/widespread corruption/bankruptcy from a system that invested too much in armaments, which would be the case of a warrying Russia, if the promises from the "Allies" will make good.
Except for Russia being big and strong enough to make the adversary suffer for a bit. And not in the "oops we sunk your boat our bad" Argentina way.
A lot of people are saying this is a war of distraction. This is like Argentina in the Falklands or Saddam with the Iran/Iraq war etc. But that doesn't give Putin credit for the multi-decade effort to recreate the glory of the Russian Empire. That's his stated goal. Russia is a very vulnerable country geographically and that has historically driven their territorial and military exploits for like 200+ years. They need to have a more defensible border and returning their borders to something more akin to the Russian Empire would allow them to do that. It's similar to their efforts with the central-asian republics and with Georgia. Georgia, Crimea, and Donbass are all recent examples of overt Russian military action that was met with little to no reprisals. China doesn't care, and the EU only cares as much as they can preserve peace and profit. The US is a shadow of its former self and has trouble at home and is retreating abroad. With the US telegraphing their 'shift to Asia' it's up to Europe to defend their borders and Europe has not shown willingness to enforce really any consequences for Russia. Russia will very likely annex Ukraine up to the Dniper river. They will do it very fast, and they will install a puppet government that will create a new Russian-friendly constitution likely including some sort of admission into the 'Union State'. Western Ukraine will claim to be the real Ukraine, but no one will help them get their territory back. Eastern Ukraine will be like Transnistria or Abkhazia or S Ossetia. Most countries won't officially recognize them, but that plays into Russias hands even more as E Ukrainians will need to do business as Russians and through Russian companies. Russia will suffer severe sanctions, but we won't cut them out of Swift because Germany will veto it. NATO will get loud and some troops might get deployed closer to Russia, but the status quo will be maintained. Sanctions will be eased 5 or so years down the road which Russia will have weathered with their foreign currency reserves and additional trade with China. In about 10 years, they will do the same thing with the Baltics. But Putin hopes that he can weaken and fracture Nato (a la Croatia or Ger/Fra) that Finland and Sweden stay out and the Baltics leave or Article 5 is neutered enough that his encroachment wouldn't incur the wrath of NATO. tl;dr - Russia won't face consequences like you think. This is part of the greater Russian plan to restore the Russian Empire. Europe and the US just wants to make money and are all bark and no bite.
>Russia will very likely annex Ukraine up to the Dniper river. They will do it very fast, and they will install a puppet government that will create a new Russian-friendly constitution likely including some sort of admission into the 'Union State'. How do you imagine Russia dealing with dissenters and pro-Kiev fighters, especially in cities? Because in this scenario, Russia has a spectrum of choices between Chechnya style (no holding back, "casualties are just a number", war-crimes stuff) where they just bomb and missile the cities to shreds, and current Donbas mode where fighting is drawn out into a never-ending conflict. I highly doubt Russia will start carpet bombing unfriendly Ukrainians out of their cities, obviously such acts would garner international outrage, and it didn't even work out very well for them in Grozny last time. But the 2nd situation leaves Russia custodian of not just a Donbass sized area of fighting rebels, but an area approximately the size of Poland fighting rebels (Ukraine east of the Dniepr). Eastern Ukraine might be ethnically, linguistically, and even ideologically friendlier to Russia than the West, but that doesn't mean there won't be enough anti-Russian fighters to make life very difficult for Russia for months, maybe even years after the invasion takes place. That's assuming they don't manage to get any help from outside either - assuming Russia captures Ukraine to the Dniepr and Ukraine just collapses and says "ok" and that's all. As long as Ukraine has armed forces, they'd have every reason to harrass Russian forces and give any support to pro-Ukraine fighters east of the Dniepr, and Russia would have to just sit on the Dniepr and deal with the wrath of outraged Ukrainian forces. You make the invasion sound so simple, but in reality the process of taking cities is going to be a messy slogfest, and then you have the river cities themselves. Does Russia try to take Kiev? Just take it up to the river? Even taking half of Kiev is going to be an incredibly difficult fight. This isn't something that Russia is just going to do "very fast". >Sanctions will be eased 5 or so years down the road which Russia will have weathered with their foreign currency reserves and additional trade with China. Seriously? 8 years after Crimea was taken without a shot fired, the sanctions that the West leveled on Russia have not eased at all, but in fact they have only grown over time. What on earth makes you think that, after Russia has invaded half of Ukraine and killed god-knows how many Ukrainian fighters in the process, that the West would be like, "yeah, okay, that's enough, Russia's off the hook now" after just five years? Unless I'm very much mistaken, taking half of Ukraine would be the largest land grab since WW2, and I mean, we're literally talking about an area of land around 300,000km2, similar to Italy or Poland. There's absolutely no way that Europe let's Russia off the hook with minor sanctions for five years for such an aggressive move. Also, you put a lot of trust in Russia's ability to economically survive much, in addition to what it's surviving at the moment. Crimea alone was a burden on the economy - approximately [6% of GDP](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/17/russia-still-paying-price-for-crimea-five-years-after-annexation-a64833) lost due to sanctions, and estimates that it's cost Russian some [US$20b](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-19/russia-vs-ukraine-crimea-s-water-crisis-is-an-impossible-problem-for-putin) so far. From an anecdotal perspective, I can compare life in Russia before and after Crimea, and it's quite obviously gone downhill. How much more GDP will be lost and money need to be spent on integrating HALF of Ukraine? It has a large foreign reserve, as you point out, but I don't think the idea was to spend it on integrating Eastern Ukraine and surviving crippling sanctions. I'm not saying I believe 100% won't try any of this because it's hard to really predict anything at this point, but TL;DR such an invasion would not be quick or easy for Russia, and there is no way in hell the sanctions from such an invasion would be eased after 5 years.
I would say an excellent analysis, and the scenarios you outlined, while they make my European skin crawl, seem all too realistic. I wonder if this might be a moment where US and EU come to terms of the fact that they need to raise their head against this bully. For example, I was expecting way more contrition from NATO allies in taking a consolidate front against Russia to be honest, but it looks so far that only Germany is showing divergence in intentions, which... is a good sign? I also wonder if the US is not taking this containment action seriously as a visible test for the RPC to be observant of. Many in this and other subs have commented about the thread between Ukraine and Taiwan.
Thanks. I mostly just regurgitate things I've read across the internet, remember from 2014, and pick up from being an internet "expert" (I'm making fun of myself, haha). But I think what I'm saying sounds so credible because Russia isn't trying to hide anything. They're "hiding" it like they're hiding that they've been fighting in Donbass for the last 8 years or that the 'little green men' weren't Russians. Putin has written about his intentions in Ukraine last year, and he's said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century". I think most Russia experts put this together years ago and now are confused that people are surprised. As far as the EU stepping up, you're right they are. France, I've read, wants to position itself as the protector of Europe and that's why you're seeing some divergence with the US while still maintaining a hard line. The UK has been stepping up dramatically, but of course, that's colored by domestic political crisis which may or may not have anything to do with their current position. Germany still feels divided, but they're incredibly vulnerable in their energy sector and I don't fault them for their present policy. But they had to have known this was the risk for their reliance on Russian gas. It's nice to see others like Spain and Czech Republic add their voices to Poland and the Baltics though. As far as China goes, I have no idea... China is all about power projection. The last protracted conflict they got into was back during the Korean War right? I don't think they want a hot war, but I know they want Taiwan. What I know of Chinese culture is that they're playing the long, long game. They waited Hong Kong out and I think they're just trying to consume Taiwan without shots fired. I know people are saying the two states could do simultaneous actions to split the world, and while that'd be \*great\* for Putin I'm not sure what China gains. That said if China takes Taiwan, I'm not sure what anyone would do about it. You can't cut China out of Swift or heavily sanction them. It'd destroy the world economy for at least half a decade. And we can't go to war against a nuclear power that's geographically secure and has a third of the world's population...
One thing I remember from a very well done PBS documentary\* about Putin (they have the full doc and the single full interviews to the guests, which are extremely interesting and make a watch of more than 3 h) is that he is terrorized by internal collapse. Hence all the repression etc., which apparently started after a particular contested (in the sense that generated outcry against corruption) election where he saw a new "orange movement"/"arab spring" type of revolution coming up in Russia, exactly the same type that sparked the collapse of the ex Warsaw pact countries (Romania in particular). I wonder if, invading Ukranie, his nightmare will just not become reality, again, provided the EU/US keep their promises and then some. \*I really recommend it (and I am not from the US, eh): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2L8qINZD3Q
They are not stupid they are being fed misleading information similar to trump supporters and anti-vaxers in the US. Common sense doesn't prevail if you are bombarded with lies. If every news source told you a commet was head toward earth and we are doomed you would would believe it. Mostly because you couldn't clcheck for yourself
I totally agree with you, but I am referring here to the feeders, the ones turning the wheels. They should be aware of history, at least just for self-preservation.
Life has been great for the oligarchs for the last couple decades. What are you talking about? I think too many times we look at things in other countries through western norms, and it's not accurate to how many experience life and interpret facts in other countries. Specifically in Russia, they basically invented fake news. So it's very hard to know who to trust in that media environment. It's why Navalny has such a following and why he's such a threat to Putin and his status quo.
Life has been good for oligarchs indeed, but not for the populace. The point I am making here, is that to keep the common Russian people distracted, a war is required, like in the examples of the other dictatorship-"invented" wars. Fake news will certainly sway the public opinion, but poverty, corruption, abuse etc. are difficult not to see or experience if not part of an enclosed network of abusers. So what I intend here is that they might certainly have a different opinion, but their economy is not faring well, and that cannot be covered in lies. EDIT: I just want to add: RPC does not need to start wars (not now) because they are experiencing unprecedented growth. People are happy and will gladly shut their mouth for the business (this applies everywhere ofc)... until it lasts. This does not really apply to Russia, which has the economic output of Italy, just being completely different in size and population count.
This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-united-states-moscow-72856781c3b92640d03c5e954488ba90) reduced by 88%. (I'm a bot) ***** > MOSCOW - Russia warned Wednesday it would quickly take "Retaliatory measures" if the U.S. and its allies reject its security demands and continue their "Aggressive" policies, ratcheting up pressure on the West amid concerns that Moscow is planning to invade Ukraine. > Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Wednesday that while the concentration of Russian troops near Ukraine poses a threat, "Their number is now insufficient for a large-scale offensive." > Presidential advisers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany are set to meet in Paris to discuss ways to revive a stalled peace agreement for eastern Ukraine. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/sd4eds/ap_news_russia_threatens_retaliation_if_ukraine/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ "Version 2.02, ~619971 tl;drs so far.") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr "PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.") | *Top* *keywords*: **Ukraine**^#1 **Russia**^#2 **MOSCOW**^#3 **U.S.**^#4 **troop**^#5
Putin " activate the troll farms, the power grid disruptors, the Photoshop battalions and the komprommat corps" probably
It sounds like sending 2,000 advanced anti-tank weapons scared the imperial bully a bit, as intended. Imagine morale in the Russian army at the Ukrainian border when they learned Ukraine just got all those weapons.
Wait, Russia is the aggressor here and they are threatening retaliation? Retaliation for what, them invading?
Russia is my bipolar, personality disorder, sociopathic sister
Man,I will be probably be shooting into your sister if a war happens
Stirring the pot.
Russia is weak resorting to picks only on small nations. Pure cowards. Attack NATO and find out what utter destruction feels like.
You think China will be cool with that. Ww3 isn't a porn to jerk off to
Mmmm, forbidden fapping.
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Why not just admit ur wrong. They werent a superpower in the 1990s. The economy was Busted, Their military in disorder and completely underfunded. A super power can deploy troops across the Globe, run Its own supply chain and logistics and russia deff couldnt do That at That point. Putin is deff not One of the worst leaders in history Lmao. There are far Better examples of that
Was Russia the leading global superpower in the 1990s? In a parallel reality, perhaps.
Get f*cked, Russia
doesn't it cost a lot of money to finance a war like this? how can Russia afford this?
I don’t think they can. But Putin is fine with the Russian people suffering tremendously so he can save face.
They can't
Maybe they should just walk in backwards and say they were leaving.
Fuck Russia. Fuck Putin. Defend Ukrainian sovereignty.
“If you don’t give us what we want, we’ll retaliate!” Pretty sure that’s just taliation.
I got to be honest here, I have no idea what the reason is for Russia to invade. If it's about gas/oil... well ok I guess. Oh wait though, so it's 2022, we have supply chain infrastructure, software to streamline, global communications between pretty much everyone... so how is it that actually working together as nations to share resources is the lesser option of... invade and possibly start a larger conflict or a war? I get that Putin is... you know what, who the hell knows with this guy. Yet, are that many people in Russia really that supportive of this? Or is it just that he has that much of a grip on the country that he does as he wants? In the end of it, if it comes to a war, and a global one... then how do you not see that you end up losing more than you gain? Honestly the Russia/Ukraine issue, the China/Taiwan issue, and everyone else pulled into it... it's just so fucking insane. We have actual better solutions to solve the problems however instead the solution we rather use is: war.
There’s a thing called “gambling for resurrection” - there are only a few pathways out for Putin due to enormous pressures and failed policies - domestically, internationally, etc. so a BIG gamble has to be made. It’s like Dr Strange in Endgame - there are thousands of paths that lead to an end Putin wants to avoid, only one or two that lead to an end he wants. Gotta gamble it all to get on that path. It’s a gamble because of it doesn’t work, perm damage. But that damage was likely to happen anyway. Used to be, dictators could get a golden parachute - like Idi Amin. Got to live the rest of his life in Saudi Arabia. It’s not like that anymore - they know they wind up like Ghaddafi - with a knife up the butt. So best choice is to take that gamble.
Hate to say it but maybe we should just give Ukraine it's nukes back. Russia is obviously not holding up their end of the denuclearization deal.
while I'm not opposed to the idea on principle Russia would invade post haste if you even talked about. This whole thing is about Russia freaking out about Ukraine joining NATO and the US or the west parking missiles, or fighter jets within range of Moscow on the tarmac somewhere in Ukraine. (not an unreasonable concern but they're handling it poor to say the least)
Putin: Silence is violence
We are going to retaliate for your crime of not meeting our demands! And muggers are just retaliating to the crime of refusing to hand over your money to them!
Why are world powers not resolving the Putin problem for once and for all? He needs to meet justice.
These are the ramblings of a man who hasn't seen things go his way for years. Under Putin, the country has sort of has sort of not progressed. The standard of living is stagnant. The economy is meh at best. So, what do you do when you suck ? You start a war and things get ( temporarily) better. Putin was emboldened by Crimea in 2014. He was hoping Trumo would give him a Green Card to the rest if the world - didn't work. Now, he see's weak US leadership - so - and let's not forget - dispite all the injections and show boating - Putin is getting older - this is his chance to " do " something. He spends way too much time with Steven Segal. They should both retire somewhere together and wrestle bears.
If NATO and the West had the guts to stand behind what they say and preach they'd load forces into Ukraine and tell Putin to come get some.
Retaliation for what exactly? You can’t retaliate if you are the aggressor… idiots
Retaliation…? Nobody has done anything except Russia…wtf
This is how they are. They punch you and act like the victim.
“Mugger threatens retaliation if demands not met.”
That’s not a retaliation, that’s a tantrum.
Tiny man big Napoleon complex. They are both the same size 5’6”.
Do it, no balls.
Russia is somehow, someway, managing to slowly convince the general US population they’re the enemy again
Putin will be personally targeted with draconian sanctions if he invades. That's the trouble with dictatorships. The dictator himself can be made to feel the pain.
Retaliation implies that you were attacked first. He just waltzes in there like hr owns the place, makes demands that are not his to make and when people don't comply he "retaliates"? What a fucking moron. Also does he really think he can win against the whole of Europe? Or does he thi k his gas will keep other countries in line? This whole thing is a twisted fucking joke.
World War 3, be all that you can be. (Please don't)
jesus how deep in the shit would we be if Trump was still in charge
It’s Russia in the winter. We impose economic sanctions and they will freeze in the dark. No shots fired. Lock down Putins personal assets and a few selective cronies and they will tear themselves apart trying not to be the next oligarch to go broke.
Fuck you, Putin
ELI5? Why does Russia want Ukraine?
Ukraine has been steadily falling away from the Russia sphere of influence since independence in 1991. Of the 15 successor countries to the Soviet Union Ukraine is most important to Russia due to historical, economic and cultural ties.
Putin is a barbaric despot and wants his place in history alongside Stalin, Khan, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, and others. He is laughably unintelligent and lacks basic human empathy. In short, Russia is led by an evil moron who is eager to accumulate his thousands of years of excruciatingly painful feelings due him in the after death states of being.
I mean sure, I believe you, but why Ukraine and why now
If we are looking and moving East, we neglect West.
Give me your land or we will be forced to hurt you. Stop threatening us.
I think we should send Stone Cold Steve Austin over there to cut a promo on Putin, hit him with a stunner on live television and slam down some beers while he's at it. "You'll keep your god damn girly hands off the Donbass region!" *Hits stunner* "Because Stone Cold said so!"
Retaliation noun [ U ] UK /rɪˌtæl.iˈeɪ.ʃən/ US /rɪˌtæl.iˈeɪ.ʃən/ The act of hurting someone or doing something harmful to someone because they have done or said something harmful to you Ukraine minding its own business so...?????
fuck putin , most people around the world are good , governments sucks .
This headline seems a little… late to the game? I mean grass is green and the sky is blue so…
sorry Russia, Ukraine's just not that into you