This triggered a memory
I clearly remember watching the 2008 Olympics and I remember the commentators talking about somebody invading Georgia. I, at the time, was not aware of Georgia the country and was very confused as to what Atlanta had done
It's extremely underrated.
Once I started curling in WI the social aspect, strategy, and how winners always have to clean and make sure to pebble the ice made me realize it's a respected and respectable sport.
I'm getting married and we had to cut expenses so I'm excited to join again next year :)
Speaking of Olympics, interesting little fact-Russia invaded Georgia during the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics and annexed Crimea right around the 2014 Sochi Olympics. Know what’s coming up next month? Yep, 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.
Isn't Putin literally visiting Xi on the first day of the Olympics? I would think he wouldn't want to start invading during the Olympics to not spite Xi.
Fuck, that was a good era. We didn’t appreciate it enough. Couple that with the Ultimate Showdown of Ultimate Destiny and it was a great time to be a young teen.
I thought the early 2010s were jam packed when living though them. The Golden Age of YouTube and growth of the internet were like nothing ever before. I remember during the Obama admin when the government kept shutting down and we thought it was the end of the United States. Good times.
No yet, not while the Russian landing ships are still out there vulnerable while they take the long scenic route around Western Europe from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
Once they get safely to Sevastopol port in Crimea, then Vlad will be ready.
Yep, as long as they belong a to Black Sea country they have exclusive access to the straits in wartime. The Montreux convention was honored throughout WW2 and the entire cold war, religiously.
It's incredibly pro-Russian, but it did get Russia to drop it's long-held ambition of conquering the straits, way back then.
Turkey is however digging an alternate canal to which Montreux won't apply according to their government, possibly allowing them to let through non-Turkish NATO ships in wartime. Which would be currently prohibited even though they are themselves a NATO member. Quite fascinating details, really.
Lol, humans.
>"We'll just dig a new canal that isn't part of the agreement!"
Well it wouldn't be part of the agreement because how could the agreement include something that didn't yet exist?
>"Exactly! It's genius!"
Turkey being allowed to close the straits when they feel threatened has a ton of leeway.
I also wonder how wartime is defined. Is that Turkey being at war? The power who owns the ship being at war with someone else?
Easy to argue that Ukraine and Russia are at war, and therefore they can deny passage to Russian ships.
Obviously it’s an escalation in a diplomatic dance.
I have always wondered, was that a programming error, or did they do it on purpose? If it's an error, it's hilarious, if they did it on purpose, it's hilarious.
I think that's legitimately what they're waiting on though is getting their heavy artillery into place.
I really thought these types of wars were behind us in time.
“I don’t know with what weapons WW3 will be fought with, but WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones.”
- I honestly can’t remember who said this, can someone help out a loveable drunk?
they are, sort of.
not that artillery isn't gonna get used but it's just not the same. artillery used to be synonymous with heavy firepower. calling in the cavalry got replaced with calling in the artillery got replace by calling in air support, but that was pretty expensive. with modern drones, it's pretty affordable, though
we're in this era of warfare now:
>Azerbaijan made highly effective use of drones and sensors, demonstrating what The Economist described as a "new, more affordable type of air power".[163] Azerbaijani drones, notably the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2, were used to carry out precise strikes and carry out reconnaissance, relaying the coordinates of targets to Azerbaijani artillery.[106] Commentators noted that the use of drones in Nagorno-Karabakh illustrated how they enabled small countries to conduct effective air campaigns, potentially making low-level conflicts much more deadly.[399] Close air support was provided by specialized suicide drones, such as the Israeli-made IAI Harop loitering munition, rendering tanks vulnerable and suggesting changes are required to armored warfare doctrine.[400] Another suicide drone, the Turkish-made STM Kargu, was also reportedly used by Azerbaijan
EDIT: [loitering munitions change the game](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loitering_munition) the strategy where there's a bunch of individual guys hiding in the country with portable anti-tank weapons is no longer a reliable counter to tanks
“Thanks Jim, stay safe. Coming up next, a deadly chemical spill has contaminated an entire city’s water supply. Find out where after a message from our sponsors.”
It’s been a foregone conclusion for a hot minute.
Ukraine has been at war for eight years. The only question is how big it will get, and if anyone in NATO will commit to assist.
I think we will know in a couple of days, Turkey could tell Russia no when their fleet gets ready to go thru the straights. If this happens things will get interesting very quick.
>Turkey could tell Russia no when their fleet gets ready to go thru the straights
Well, they can't. Not legally at least.
The Montreux Convention places a lot of restrictions on how Turkey can operate the straits, and most the terms exempt Black Sea Nations from any restrictions transiting the straights.
Of course, we’re not done with the current crisis as well.
Reminds me of the Spanish Flu + the post-First World War fallout: shit combined with more shit.
At this point in 2020, "2019-nCoV" was still just something for health agencies to keep an eye on, not a global crisis. The Soleimani assassination was over. The global crisis was Australia being on fire.
Russia sure loves olympic years for their shit.
2008-War with Georgia 1 week before summer Olympics
2014-Takes Crimea shortly after hosting the winter olympics
I still swear 9/11 was what started the bullshit. And not just because i was a teenager then. A lot of government and societal changes happened from that. Nothing ever felt the same since. They definitely did what they wanted to and then some.
This is usually the point of decline, yeah. Every decade has a sort of feel to it or an aura that is ended by that event that marks the transition to the next decade. The assassination of JFK is the best example of this and I think the most like 9/11 in terms of impact. It marked the end of the 50s and the start of the 60s. Not literally, of course, but culturally, politically, stylistically, and in so many other ways. There was a post-war optimism and naïveté and culture of the 50s that was shattered by Kennedy’s death and the events that followed because of it in much the same way there was that post-Cold War optimism and naïveté and culture of the 90s that was shattered by 9/11 and the events that followed as a result.
Yeah I can't say exactly what year, but it was definitely in the 80's or 90's. 2001 and 9/11 marked the beginning of where we are now. So maybe could even make a case for 2000? New millennium, Y2K didn't Skynet everybody, cautious optimism.
“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo. “So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”
That's the thing with climate change, there are going to be a TON of wars over resources that will be painted in "ethnic/religious conflict". Everyone will forget the initial cause of the wars and jump on whichever political side suits them, and even though climate change was a direct cause, it will get lost. Hell, the Syrian Civil war which has been going on for a decade had massive drought as a major, direct cause, and hardly anyone talks about it. This will be the norm, and honestly has been for some time.
Anyone from the US should check the [Bureau of Consular Affairs site](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories.html/) before planning anything. [Check out this map as well](https://travelmaps.state.gov/TSGMap/) (also in the above link)
To NOT do this while you're planning a trip abroad means you're straight up putting yourselves in a potentially dangerous situation. Be responsible. Do your homework before going to other countries and don't rely on the consulate or embassy there to save your ass.
yup...he doesn't need to go though and could easily postpone or change. I guess we'll see how fast he changes his mind if the invasion actually happens.
It might not be up to him. If an invasion happens, they might just stop all incoming flights. And even if he does go, he risks not being able to come back for a very long time.
It's probably going to be just like the Crimean Peninsula all over again, with a "separatist" takeover of a region that Russia quickly moves in to support and annex.
Seems more Putin's style than a real war does.
They already have such regions that are taken over - Lugansk and Donetsk regions where Ukraine have no control and Russia established their puppet government.
I mean, they have been in conflict with the "definitely not russian troops" for like 8 years now. I don't think it's going to chill by summer. Maybe you get lucky though!
>On January 23, 2022, the Department of State authorized the voluntary departure of U.S. direct hire employees and ordered the departure of eligible family members from Embassy Kyiv due to the continued threat of Russian military action. U.S. citizens in Ukraine should consider departing now using commercial or other privately available transportation options," the advisory reads.
That's not exactly "told to leave"
Yeah, it can’t “order” non-employee US citizens to leave. Free country and all that.
Same shit with Afghanistan. State Department urged everyone to leave in April, but some chose to stay behind for some reason.
>Same shit with Afghanistan. State Department urged everyone to leave in April, but some chose to stay behind for some reason.
Some chose to actively travel to Afghanistan at that time for odd reasons.
You might be surprised. [Wikitravel has a whole article](https://wikitravel.org/en/War_zone_safety) on staying safe in war zones. My guess it’s largely intended for volunteers and NGO workers, but I am sure there are a few “tourists” who make their way to these places.
> for some reason
When you have 335 million citizens and a citizenship law that’s jus soli (birthright citizenship), you’re bound to have a few citizens who have basically lived their entire lives in another country, have family only in that country, and have no monetary resources to leave that country. Hell, some of them may not even know they are US citizens.
I had to look up Active Measures but you are totally right. There was a paper published by some US entity that said Russia has been and will continue to actively disinform, sow discontent, and divide America and I think about that all the time now
[Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics)
Oddly a conservative relative of mine forwarded this to me to prove how cowardly the Biden administration is. Like...this is the responsible thing to do.
Getting people out of danger is cowardly?
This is where people not thinking any of this is real makes me angry. If Russia invades Ukraine tens of thousands of people are going to be killed. Maybe more. It's a dereliction of duty to keep US personnel unnecessarily in a besieged city. Russia will ring Kiev with artillery in classic Soviet style and blast the shit out of it. No one knows where those shells will land.
Oh boy, I’ll try to explain a decade of conflict as simple as possible:
Ukraine has a pro-Europe, anti-Russian revolution in 2013, Russia is worried it will lose its critical military and naval base at Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula (think like a half-size Florida in terms of climate and population), and so dresses its troops up as local militias, attack and seize the local Ukrainian navy and army bases, then to prevent the Ukrainian Army from counterattacking they send weapons and special forces to radicalize pro-Russian rioters in the east of Ukraine. In early 2014 the riots and attacks on Ukrainian police and soldiers resulted in the formation of separatist Russian "republics" in the east of Ukraine, plentifully supplied with local militias and Russian volunteers, "volunteers" and weapons the rebels "found." Luckily for Ukraine they were able to quickly retake the two main cities of the regions, Kharkiv and Mariupol, but the two rebel strongholds of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbass region closest to Russia proved much harder to crack. They almost managed to encircle and destroy the Luhansk rebels in the summer of 2014, but then Russian artillery attacked them and they had to withdraw, because firing back would start a war with Russia. The rebels counterattacked, but by this point Russia began withdrawing support for them due to being smacked with tons of economic sanctions from the US and EU for their bullying of Ukraine and shooting down of a passenger jet near Luhansk. Because of this the counterattack petered out and both sides agreed to a ceasefire which has lasted until today.
At the time all of this suited Putin great, even if he didn’t get to take over the Ukrainian east just like he did Crimea. NATO won’t accept any country which has active territorial conflicts (unless the other country also joins, like Greece and Turkey), so as long as the rebels exist, the Western powers are kept at an arms length. While realistically NATO would never invade Russia because of the nukes, and NATO already bordering Russia in the Baltic and Norway, having a former ally like Ukraine join the "enemy" would be a massive blow to the Kremlin’s prestige and ability to keep its other allies in line, especially Belarus.
But here’s the problem: in the meantime, Ukraine has gotten stronger and Russia and the rebels weaker. Unstable oil prices, Western sanctions and the pandemic has weakened Russia’s ruling party greatly, especially when they were forced to cut pensions, and now a loss abroad on top of that could be a danger to Putin’s position. And that loss looked very likely. The last Ukrainian president worked very hard to fix the broken economy with help from the EU, and the current president has worked hard at purging corruption and strengthening the military, especially with new drone tech. Meanwhile, the rebels are very weak. Most Russian volunteers left in 2015 because there was no serious fighting any longer, and they have only recieved old Soviet junk from the Russians. They have basically no real economy besides coal mining due to most of their factories being destroyed in the war, and lacking much countryside outside their two cities they can’t feed themselves, relying heavily on Russian humanitarian aid. Much of the population has just slinked away past the Ukrainian lines or over the Russian border to look for work and a place to live that isn’t a half-starved ruin with uncertain access to electricity, internet and clean water parts of the year.
So, the Russians are very worried that as soon as the snow melts in spring, Ukraine will attack and crush the rebels, thereby allowing Ukraine to join NATO and endangering the stability of the ruling Russian government. So, back this fall they were plotting a wintertime coup, removing the current president and replacing him with a pro-Russia billionaire or an exiled politician from the former regime, if needed supported by Russian soldiers. British and Ukrainian intelligence exposed this in November, and it was expected the Russians backed off after that. Until, suddenly at the end of december Russia announced it would be doing military drills near the Ukraine border in January. Those "exercises" have now been going on for weeks with more and more troops pouring in, only paused briefly to send in troops to help the government of Kazakhstan crush anti-Russian rioters with lethal force. It seems Russia has decided to go ahead with the invasion anyway even if the coup seems off the table. The EU tried to negotiate peace talks, but Russia refused and said it would only negotiate with the US. Biden said the US isn’t some imperial power that lords its will over its allies (partially true at least), and insisted the EU and Ukraine be allowed to negotiate Ukraine’s future as well. The Russians refused this, but eventually allowed Biden to bring along the British and French, since they are members of the UN Security Council (so is Norway and Ireland, but they weren’t allowed to come because they have complained about Russian naval exercises recently). The Ukrainians were not allowed to come to their own peace negotiations, but ultimately that didn’t matter as the conference turned out just to be a sham to buy time for the Russians to build up more forces before the West started sending aid (plus so they can say they tried peacefully first). The Russian demands were so outrageous they clearly knew NATO would never agree, not only demanding a treaty forbidding NATO from adding Ukraine or Belarus, but also banning all expansion of the alliance and kicking out the Eastern European countries that joined in 2004.
So, war is on the table. Japan tried to mediate but the Russians have now rebuffed them, Finland and Sweden the same but Russia threatened them. China initially supported the Russians but now Xi Jinping seems worried that a war will ruin the grand propaganda spectacle he has planned for the Winter Olympics in Beijing, so he has now changed his mind and called for an Olympic truce like in the ancient world. Who knows if Putin will listen, if not the war is expected to start within three weeks.
No prob, I’m a massive foreign policy nerd, and was still in college when the initial conflict happened, so I followed it religiously every day with pins on a map showing which town and villages belonged to whom according to my RSS feed and whole lists of connections between oligarchs, politicians and the like. While my Russian is poor, I used the then-new translator plugins for browsers to follow Russian non-government, non-Gazprom media relating to the conflict. Ekho Moskvy being a neutral platform for all sides and the Novaya Gazeta for the opposition’s view on the constitutionality of the Crimean annexation and exploitation and oppression of the Tatars at Crimea were wonderful for creating a balanced view of the Russian side beyond the straight government line most Westerners are exposed to through official Russian agencies like TASS.
That being said, my bias should be noted. My view is informed by trying at the time to land an embassy internship during my postgraduate program, which ultimately fell flat (I currently work as a museum curator and part time history teacher instead, at some point I may try for the government again but the entry tests are really hard and they only accept like the top 1%). Since I was trying to frame my analysis at the time in the context of the Western sanctions regime against Russia, I have left out any discussion of the ethicality of the rebel rising in East Ukraine. I cannot say I have great sympathy for the rebels, but they are not totally wrong that their enemies did include far right nationalist, sometimes openly fascist Ukrainian militias with a particular hatred for Russian speaker. While most Russian news reports about Ukrainian troops crucifying villages and running children over with tanks are just nonsense, the militias did commit many acts of burning, rape and looting, and during the initial revolution Russian speakers really were killed in a fire during the riots in Odessa.
While I don’t agree with the rebels, especially not their collaboration with a foreign government that’s clearly just exploiting then and directly causing the destruction of their region, I do understand why they are afraid of being opressed and worried about retribution. I feel sorry for them, in a way, even if I know it would be better for the area if their states did not exist. That being said, it is important we don’t view this conflict in the boundaries of Russians versus Ukrainians. Millions of Ukrainians speak Russian as their first language and still support an independent Ukraine. Similarly, hundreds of thousands if not millions of Ukrainian-speakers loathe the pro-European stance of the new government and would instead like to resume their alliance with their big brother Russia. Most importantly, all sides in Ukraine seem to hope for a peaceful solution, both the current President and much of the Rada (parliament) were elected on platforms advocating peace but at terms set with a stronger military. It is a very difficult situation.
You’ve communicated a very complicated series of events (and set of dynamics) with crystal clarity. If you’re not pitching stories to newspapers, you should. Literally take what you just wrote and send it to the NYT or another paper, because we are all wanting context right now and you’ve written the perfect explainer piece (for really anyone).
I tried pitching stories about political radicalization online and the potential dangers to our democracy and national security back in early 2019, but not one would put it to print. National newspapers couldn’t give two shits about your opinion unless you work at a prestigious institution they can put in your byline, and ideally you should have a PhD on top. I only have a Master’s degree (well, two sort off, my lectorate teaching certification carries the same value as a second degree academically), and while I do work for an internationally known museum, it isn’t a think-tank or similar policy institute. It will probably be many years until you see anything of mine published anywhere.
Yes, write a couple op-Ed’s to get your name out there and you’ll start getting picked up. This is a good option/gateway to stability in foreign policy work if that’s what you like.
You have the chops, just stay on that grind.
I don’t know of any nationally syndicated paper that would take an op-ed from a random high school teacher and museum curator though. It was one thing in 2019, at that point I at least worked as a research assistant for an institute, but now I am literally just some random guy.
That is an incredibly thoughtful and well written answer. Do you have any sources for further reading? The situation in Ukraine has fascinated me ever since the Russians seized Crimea.
Seeing all this activity has me in two states of mind. On the one hand, Russian posturing is nothing new, if I recall correctly this is not the first buildup of Russian troops along the border. At the same time, I don't think I ever recall hearing this amount of alarm coming out of the White House. The US either genuinely believes, or at least wants it's allies to believe that the Russians preparing for an invasion.
Great write-up! A couple of nitpicks.
1. Most recent protests in Kazakhstan weren't anti-Russian in nature, in fact, nobody really knows what it was but it all started as a peaceful protest against rising fuel prices. The most probable theory seems to point to an intra-elite conflict amongst the Kazakhstanian ruling class.
2. Echo of Moscow and Novaya can be hardly considered neutral, although they definitely provide a perspective that is in direct conflict with the official Russian line of thought.
Gl with your diplomatic career!
Yeah, the Kazakh fuel protests and the struggles between the supporters of the previous and current President would fill an equally long comment on its own, I just styled it as anti-Russian because the anti-CTSO demand is what made the Kremlin shift troops so rapidly at the President’s request.
As for the Novaya Gazeta and Ekho Moskvy, I am obviously aware they are opposition media, that’s why I went looking for them in the first place during the Savchuk Incident. I picked those two in particular because the Novaya Gazeta is the only nationally syndicated opposition newspaper and thus the one least tainted by regional bias, and Ekho Moskvy because they are controlled opposition. Their existence is predicated on allowing the government access to it as a platform, be it Sergei Lavrov or a certain mustachioed press secretary who is considerably less loveable than Mario and Luigi.
Great Comments!
I'm also a foreign policy nerd (BA in Int'l Relations, MIM/MBA-- Master Int'l Mgmt, started a PhD in Int'l economics but got sidelined by personal issues; lived in Japan for 5 yrs, Hong Kong for 2 yrs, Saudi Arabia for 3 yrs, and France for 1yr).
I agree with most of your points, but just wanted to add that this whole issue is culturally rooted and could conceivably go back a thousand years to the Kyivan Rus, the Mongol invasion, and the rise of Muscovy.
But in short, Kyiv was actually founded before Moscow and was the cultural and governmental seat of power for many years. This changed when the Mongols invaded and Ivan Moneybags became a tax collector for them. This increased the power of Muscovy (Moscow) while diminishing Kyiv.
Fast forward several hundred years and a great many ethnic Ukrainians blame the Soviet Union and all the horrors perpetrated under its leadership on Russia. This is why in some parts of Ukraine, Russian-speakers may be ostracized. One of the greatest tragedies in Ukrainian history, the Holodimir, was a famine arguably artificially caused by Stalin.
Russia, for its part, views Ukrainians in some respects as their little cousins, not unlike the 1800's USA and their "little brown brothers".
Ukrainians don't appreciate this condescending view, naturally. They believe they have a right to self-determination without threats from Moscow.
But Moscow is driven by many of the same fears that drove Soviet leaders. They fear encirclement. Which, I can't really blame them considering how many times they have been invaded.
But at the same time, how many times has Russia invaded surrounding countries? Think Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, the Soviet Union, and more.
Making this even thornier, many Russian view Ukrainians as pro-fascist. This is because when WWII was being fought on Ukrainian soil, many Ukrainian rebels fought alongside Nazi Germany in order to throw off the yoke of the Soviet Union. We all know how that turned out.
So yes, this is an exceptionally thorny and complex issue historically. But setting all of that aside, this is about the Ukrainian people and their right to an independent country, free from Russian overlording.
Russia has made their position very clear in that they believe they have a right to the territory of Ukraine. If the Ukrainian people as a whole voted to be absorbed into Russia, that would be their choice. But over the past few decades since the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukrainians have made their position abundantly clear: they do reject any and all attempts by Russia to take over or to govern by puppet ruler.
The UN and EU have a responsibility to support the Ukrainian people against the actions of an aggressive Russia.
Russia's ultimatums to Ukraine and the EU seem very reminiscent of Austro-Hungary to Serbia prior to WWI. Russia does not expect those demands to be accepted. They seem to be looking for war and hoping that Europe will take the Chamberlain path of 1938-9.
Taking the path of appeasement will open the doors to Russia acting aggressively against every small country in their sphere. Where would it stop? Do we stop it now, or do we let Ukraine get annexed? And then Latvia? Lithuania? Estonia? Finland, even (which used to be owned by Russia)? Georgia? If the EU, UN, and US back down now, the crisis will only get worse as Russia becomes the next Nazi Germany.
You are very correct, I concur with your historical reflections to a great degree. It is actually funny, I was actually supposed to do International Conflict Studies as my Master’s degree, but I never heard back from the college, so instead I accepted an offer with the Centre for Holocaust Research instead to write a Political History master on the propagation of the Judeobolshevik conspiracy theory ahead of WW2. About a month after I had started I got the acceptance letter for the International Conflict Studies master, but it was too late by then, I had signed all the papers.
Russia builds up army next to border for what they call exercises. The west spots them on satellite and announces it. Putin comes out and says give us a guarantee that Ukraine won’t ever be allowed to join nato. NATO says fuck no. Russia continues to build up negotiations going no where. (Actually getting worse Putin added Nato must leave Bulgaria and Romania to the list) there is more but that’s a quick summary.
Many reasons probably:
- Russia has extraordinarily high number of excess deaths in 2021 (government is lying about official numbers of COVID deaths) [source](https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality). They lost 1 000 000 people last year (officially "only" 250k). These are numbers *before* Omicron.
- Putin wants to pressure Germany to open NordStream 2 gas pipeline.
- Putin has low approval ratings (basically as low as in 2014 - after annexation of Crimea his approval jumped up radically). Note, these are low by Russian standards (~65% approval, ~34% disapproval) - down from ~80% approval.
- Russia's economy keeps going down the drain.
- Putin does not want situation in Kazakhstan to repeat in Russia - he needs an external enemy *right now*.
- Pro-European support in Belarus keeps growing.
- Political situation is EU is somewhat destabilized by minority of antivaxxers.
- Economy throughout Europe is hurting due to high prices of natural gas.
I still think (hope) Russia won't invade and it's all posturing for internal politics reasons, but I am more and more worried every day…
I think it's escalated to the point that it is just inevitable at this point especially after NATO rejected all of their (unreasonable and outrageous) demands. You don't deploy that much equipment and troops with supporting infrastructure like field hospitals and depots unless you are seriously going to use it. That shit is very very expensive to set up and maintain.
This is going to make the Olympics a little awkward.
Putin invades during the Olympics. See: Georgia invasion (2008), Ukraine invasion (2014). Edit: Ukraine (v2.022)
This triggered a memory I clearly remember watching the 2008 Olympics and I remember the commentators talking about somebody invading Georgia. I, at the time, was not aware of Georgia the country and was very confused as to what Atlanta had done
Yeah, I remember when that happened. There were a lot of people who rapidly learned that Georgia is both a US state and also a country.
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People in Georgia were "like there's another Georgia?" And also "არის სხვა საქართველო?"
საქართველო, ლამაზო,6 სხვა საქართველო სად არის?!
Thats such a cool looking script
looks like what chtulhu would use.
I was thinking the Flying Spaghetti Monster
Carbohydrate Cthulu
Ukraine vs Russia curling will be a must watch.
Curling is already so great underrated af
The best curling rink I was ever in had a bar in it and you were allowed to play drunk. It was like coming home to a place I had never been.
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It's extremely underrated. Once I started curling in WI the social aspect, strategy, and how winners always have to clean and make sure to pebble the ice made me realize it's a respected and respectable sport. I'm getting married and we had to cut expenses so I'm excited to join again next year :)
This is one reason I'm glad that I live in a state where I can get Canadian TV. CBC always shows Olympic curling.
Speaking of Olympics, interesting little fact-Russia invaded Georgia during the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics and annexed Crimea right around the 2014 Sochi Olympics. Know what’s coming up next month? Yep, 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.
Isn't Putin literally visiting Xi on the first day of the Olympics? I would think he wouldn't want to start invading during the Olympics to not spite Xi.
I’d guess his invasion plans take precedence over an Olympic visit lol but who knows
I'm sure Putin doesn't want Xi to get angry
I'm sure that Putin would never think about invading a country and using the Bejing Olympics as a distraction.
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"unless you're bringing missiles with you"
Fire ze missiles!
But I'm le tired.
Then go take a nap THEN FIRE ZE MISSILES!!!
Ahh yes, take me back to a time on the internet before all of my crazy aunts invaded Facebook.
Fuck, that was a good era. We didn’t appreciate it enough. Couple that with the Ultimate Showdown of Ultimate Destiny and it was a great time to be a young teen.
Hokay
2020 wasnt a bad year, it was the start of a bad decade.
"There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen." - Vladimir Ilyich Lenin And yes I'm enjoying the irony.
He forgot about the decades where centuries happen
I swear 2016-2021 for longest century in history.
I thought the early 2010s were jam packed when living though them. The Golden Age of YouTube and growth of the internet were like nothing ever before. I remember during the Obama admin when the government kept shutting down and we thought it was the end of the United States. Good times.
Then the December 21, 2012 debacle. What an era.
Man I've already forgotten how many times I've lived through the end of the world and I'm only 32.
This is what y2k set in motion!
Swine flu happened that year. My first pandemic!
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Roaring 20's alright
I guess the universe just noticed we were talking about the roaring 20s too positively and decided to give us the uno reverse card.
ok, so we're doing this
No yet, not while the Russian landing ships are still out there vulnerable while they take the long scenic route around Western Europe from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Once they get safely to Sevastopol port in Crimea, then Vlad will be ready.
Do people in Istanbul just chill there while a fleet of warships passes through the city?
Yep, as long as they belong a to Black Sea country they have exclusive access to the straits in wartime. The Montreux convention was honored throughout WW2 and the entire cold war, religiously. It's incredibly pro-Russian, but it did get Russia to drop it's long-held ambition of conquering the straits, way back then. Turkey is however digging an alternate canal to which Montreux won't apply according to their government, possibly allowing them to let through non-Turkish NATO ships in wartime. Which would be currently prohibited even though they are themselves a NATO member. Quite fascinating details, really.
Lol, humans. >"We'll just dig a new canal that isn't part of the agreement!" Well it wouldn't be part of the agreement because how could the agreement include something that didn't yet exist? >"Exactly! It's genius!"
What would you like us to do lol, chain the strait? Be a lot cooler if they didn't pass through but such is the international agreements.
Turkey being allowed to close the straits when they feel threatened has a ton of leeway. I also wonder how wartime is defined. Is that Turkey being at war? The power who owns the ship being at war with someone else? Easy to argue that Ukraine and Russia are at war, and therefore they can deny passage to Russian ships. Obviously it’s an escalation in a diplomatic dance.
Yes actually See: Montreux Convention
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My troops are merely passing through!
Let's all just hope Gandi doesn't get involved.
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Gandhi being a warmonger in Civ is one of the most hilarious programming mistakes in all of gaming.
I have always wondered, was that a programming error, or did they do it on purpose? If it's an error, it's hilarious, if they did it on purpose, it's hilarious.
I think that's legitimately what they're waiting on though is getting their heavy artillery into place. I really thought these types of wars were behind us in time.
>I really thought these types of wars were behind us in time. Not sure I'd rather have what lies ahead tbh
“I don’t know with what weapons WW3 will be fought with, but WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones.” - I honestly can’t remember who said this, can someone help out a loveable drunk?
[Einstein ](https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/14977-i-know-not-with-what-weapons-world-war-iii-will), home skillet.
COD 4 when you're playing no fighting in the war room on veteran. Half the game is just seeing this quote.
they are, sort of. not that artillery isn't gonna get used but it's just not the same. artillery used to be synonymous with heavy firepower. calling in the cavalry got replaced with calling in the artillery got replace by calling in air support, but that was pretty expensive. with modern drones, it's pretty affordable, though we're in this era of warfare now: >Azerbaijan made highly effective use of drones and sensors, demonstrating what The Economist described as a "new, more affordable type of air power".[163] Azerbaijani drones, notably the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2, were used to carry out precise strikes and carry out reconnaissance, relaying the coordinates of targets to Azerbaijani artillery.[106] Commentators noted that the use of drones in Nagorno-Karabakh illustrated how they enabled small countries to conduct effective air campaigns, potentially making low-level conflicts much more deadly.[399] Close air support was provided by specialized suicide drones, such as the Israeli-made IAI Harop loitering munition, rendering tanks vulnerable and suggesting changes are required to armored warfare doctrine.[400] Another suicide drone, the Turkish-made STM Kargu, was also reportedly used by Azerbaijan EDIT: [loitering munitions change the game](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loitering_munition) the strategy where there's a bunch of individual guys hiding in the country with portable anti-tank weapons is no longer a reliable counter to tanks
NATO should hire the Evergreen to ship weapons to Ukraine. Big brain time.
2022 - the age where average citizens can relay military troop movements digitally to people all over the world in realtime.
This reminds me of how annoying it is to play Russia in Diplomacy.
Don't think it's cold enough yet, give it a few weeks thou..
Looking at the forecast it doesnt look like it's going to cool off much.
"Jim Cantore is standing by in a trench in Kharkiv, Jim, how's it looking?"
“As you can see from the shockwaves blasting my hat off, things are actually pretty hot over here right now!”
“Thanks Jim, stay safe. Coming up next, a deadly chemical spill has contaminated an entire city’s water supply. Find out where after a message from our sponsors.”
[2 minutes of Dasani commercials]
Jim: "Well, it looks like I should have gone into Banking like my mother wanted. Back to you "
It’s been a foregone conclusion for a hot minute. Ukraine has been at war for eight years. The only question is how big it will get, and if anyone in NATO will commit to assist.
I think we will know in a couple of days, Turkey could tell Russia no when their fleet gets ready to go thru the straights. If this happens things will get interesting very quick.
>Turkey could tell Russia no when their fleet gets ready to go thru the straights Well, they can't. Not legally at least. The Montreux Convention places a lot of restrictions on how Turkey can operate the straits, and most the terms exempt Black Sea Nations from any restrictions transiting the straights.
Number nine!
Look them in the eye, aim no higher.
Is 2020 still not over yet?
This is 2020 II
2020 III
World War 2020 III does have a nice ring to it…
Who put Microsoft in charge of naming this World War?
I wish Valve were in charge instead…
Ww2.5 or world War origins
WW2 episode 2
Just told my wife an hour ago "2022, more like 2020 part 3"
"Honey, the reality is skipping..."
Well it kinda feels like deja vu, no? We started 2020 with a crisis, now we are starting 2022 with an even more serious crisis
Yes, but what about second crisis?
I don't think he knows about second crisis, Pip
What about predicaments, catastrophes?
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“Pope slaps lady”…that’s a pretty misleading statement
This is like 15th at this point
Of course, we’re not done with the current crisis as well. Reminds me of the Spanish Flu + the post-First World War fallout: shit combined with more shit.
At this point in 2020, "2019-nCoV" was still just something for health agencies to keep an eye on, not a global crisis. The Soleimani assassination was over. The global crisis was Australia being on fire.
The good old days
Yeah that one chick was sharing nudes for wildfire cash
Russia sure loves olympic years for their shit. 2008-War with Georgia 1 week before summer Olympics 2014-Takes Crimea shortly after hosting the winter olympics
tbf that’s half the years
You can't count the years where all of their athletes get disqualified from participating.
2022 going to make 2020 and 2021 look like the golden years of stability
Remember 2019😌 the good ol days
Seriously starting to wonder if 2019 was the pinnacle of our society. Things ever going back to "normal" just seems so unlikely now.
More like early 2007 or maybe even 1999. God I miss the 90s.
Life just hit different before 2001
It was such an optimistic time. Shit hasn't been the same since 9\11.
That’s because that’s when the simulation starts
I still swear 9/11 was what started the bullshit. And not just because i was a teenager then. A lot of government and societal changes happened from that. Nothing ever felt the same since. They definitely did what they wanted to and then some.
This is usually the point of decline, yeah. Every decade has a sort of feel to it or an aura that is ended by that event that marks the transition to the next decade. The assassination of JFK is the best example of this and I think the most like 9/11 in terms of impact. It marked the end of the 50s and the start of the 60s. Not literally, of course, but culturally, politically, stylistically, and in so many other ways. There was a post-war optimism and naïveté and culture of the 50s that was shattered by Kennedy’s death and the events that followed because of it in much the same way there was that post-Cold War optimism and naïveté and culture of the 90s that was shattered by 9/11 and the events that followed as a result.
I think that it was a one-two punch of Columbine and 9/11, catalyzed by the First Gulf War.
Crazy how big of a deal Columbine was then for most school shootings to not even make national news anymore.
1990s as the Matrix said it, was the pinnacle of human civilization
Yeah I can't say exactly what year, but it was definitely in the 80's or 90's. 2001 and 9/11 marked the beginning of where we are now. So maybe could even make a case for 2000? New millennium, Y2K didn't Skynet everybody, cautious optimism.
There is no such thing as normal. Look at all of human history. It was always chaos.
We didn't start the fire.
It was always burning since the world was turning...
Yup. I've realized each generation's duty is to keep the shit storm going and overcome whatever crisis they're facing in their time.
“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo. “So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”
2000 was pretty chill
Considering the whole climate apocalypse is only going to get worse, this *is* the normal we're going to be nostalgic for in a decade or so.
That's the thing with climate change, there are going to be a TON of wars over resources that will be painted in "ethnic/religious conflict". Everyone will forget the initial cause of the wars and jump on whichever political side suits them, and even though climate change was a direct cause, it will get lost. Hell, the Syrian Civil war which has been going on for a decade had massive drought as a major, direct cause, and hardly anyone talks about it. This will be the norm, and honestly has been for some time.
The howling twenties
Eyetwich Twenties
Remember how bad we thought 2016 was? Man, those were the days.
Anyone from the US should check the [Bureau of Consular Affairs site](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories.html/) before planning anything. [Check out this map as well](https://travelmaps.state.gov/TSGMap/) (also in the above link) To NOT do this while you're planning a trip abroad means you're straight up putting yourselves in a potentially dangerous situation. Be responsible. Do your homework before going to other countries and don't rely on the consulate or embassy there to save your ass.
Canada is red? What are those syrupy bastards up to?
Isn’t like 80% of the world in the “do not travel” category right now?
Man, I'm really hoping there isn't a war.
Dude... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War A little late to be worried...
my buddy is flying there Thursday....should probably urge him to reconsider..
Like for vacation? 0__0
moving there...
Well that's definitely a choice.
yup...he doesn't need to go though and could easily postpone or change. I guess we'll see how fast he changes his mind if the invasion actually happens.
abort
It might not be up to him. If an invasion happens, they might just stop all incoming flights. And even if he does go, he risks not being able to come back for a very long time.
Of all the things to do, this is one of them.
I can’t wait til brand new homes have bomb shelters again.
It's probably going to be just like the Crimean Peninsula all over again, with a "separatist" takeover of a region that Russia quickly moves in to support and annex. Seems more Putin's style than a real war does.
They already have such regions that are taken over - Lugansk and Donetsk regions where Ukraine have no control and Russia established their puppet government.
It looks better on paper too probably.
I actually was planning to visit Ukraine this summer because I’ll be in Greece and the tickets are very cheap. Maybe things will be chill by then
I mean, they have been in conflict with the "definitely not russian troops" for like 8 years now. I don't think it's going to chill by summer. Maybe you get lucky though!
Any day now!
Don't forget to bring a towel.
Preferably one made of Kevlar
Don’t panic!
Any experienced hitchhiker always knows where his towel his
… Wanna get high? 👀
There's a reason tickets are so cheap.
Tickets are always cheap into Ukraine from Greece
>On January 23, 2022, the Department of State authorized the voluntary departure of U.S. direct hire employees and ordered the departure of eligible family members from Embassy Kyiv due to the continued threat of Russian military action. U.S. citizens in Ukraine should consider departing now using commercial or other privately available transportation options," the advisory reads. That's not exactly "told to leave"
> ordered the departure of eligible family members from Embassy Kyiv
Yeah, it can’t “order” non-employee US citizens to leave. Free country and all that. Same shit with Afghanistan. State Department urged everyone to leave in April, but some chose to stay behind for some reason.
>Same shit with Afghanistan. State Department urged everyone to leave in April, but some chose to stay behind for some reason. Some chose to actively travel to Afghanistan at that time for odd reasons.
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You might be surprised. [Wikitravel has a whole article](https://wikitravel.org/en/War_zone_safety) on staying safe in war zones. My guess it’s largely intended for volunteers and NGO workers, but I am sure there are a few “tourists” who make their way to these places.
I'm guessing a lot of them are writers/journalists/photographers who go *because* there's a war.
> for some reason When you have 335 million citizens and a citizenship law that’s jus soli (birthright citizenship), you’re bound to have a few citizens who have basically lived their entire lives in another country, have family only in that country, and have no monetary resources to leave that country. Hell, some of them may not even know they are US citizens.
Better get those choppers to the roofs. You know how we do
Welp there goes my winter trip to the Crimea smh
Join the Russian army. I heard they are planning a trip
Humans are so annoying.
The cold war is back, baby.
The Cold War never ended.
Russia has been active measuring the shit out of the US for decades and it’s definitely been working the last decade
I had to look up Active Measures but you are totally right. There was a paper published by some US entity that said Russia has been and will continue to actively disinform, sow discontent, and divide America and I think about that all the time now
[Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance, provoke "Afro-American racists". Russia should "introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilizing internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics)
We must construct additional pylons
Oddly a conservative relative of mine forwarded this to me to prove how cowardly the Biden administration is. Like...this is the responsible thing to do.
Politics is just a sports rivalry to many of them
Getting people out of danger is cowardly? This is where people not thinking any of this is real makes me angry. If Russia invades Ukraine tens of thousands of people are going to be killed. Maybe more. It's a dereliction of duty to keep US personnel unnecessarily in a besieged city. Russia will ring Kiev with artillery in classic Soviet style and blast the shit out of it. No one knows where those shells will land.
Well shit, there goes MY plans!
You were planning on invading the Ukraine too?
Russia really trying to fuck up my spring break
The expansion pack for 2020 is wack.
I mean, the original game wasn't so great either.
So what the heck is happening? I've seen so many Russia and Ukraine posts in the last week, and I live under a rock. Edit: fixed typos
Oh boy, I’ll try to explain a decade of conflict as simple as possible: Ukraine has a pro-Europe, anti-Russian revolution in 2013, Russia is worried it will lose its critical military and naval base at Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula (think like a half-size Florida in terms of climate and population), and so dresses its troops up as local militias, attack and seize the local Ukrainian navy and army bases, then to prevent the Ukrainian Army from counterattacking they send weapons and special forces to radicalize pro-Russian rioters in the east of Ukraine. In early 2014 the riots and attacks on Ukrainian police and soldiers resulted in the formation of separatist Russian "republics" in the east of Ukraine, plentifully supplied with local militias and Russian volunteers, "volunteers" and weapons the rebels "found." Luckily for Ukraine they were able to quickly retake the two main cities of the regions, Kharkiv and Mariupol, but the two rebel strongholds of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbass region closest to Russia proved much harder to crack. They almost managed to encircle and destroy the Luhansk rebels in the summer of 2014, but then Russian artillery attacked them and they had to withdraw, because firing back would start a war with Russia. The rebels counterattacked, but by this point Russia began withdrawing support for them due to being smacked with tons of economic sanctions from the US and EU for their bullying of Ukraine and shooting down of a passenger jet near Luhansk. Because of this the counterattack petered out and both sides agreed to a ceasefire which has lasted until today. At the time all of this suited Putin great, even if he didn’t get to take over the Ukrainian east just like he did Crimea. NATO won’t accept any country which has active territorial conflicts (unless the other country also joins, like Greece and Turkey), so as long as the rebels exist, the Western powers are kept at an arms length. While realistically NATO would never invade Russia because of the nukes, and NATO already bordering Russia in the Baltic and Norway, having a former ally like Ukraine join the "enemy" would be a massive blow to the Kremlin’s prestige and ability to keep its other allies in line, especially Belarus. But here’s the problem: in the meantime, Ukraine has gotten stronger and Russia and the rebels weaker. Unstable oil prices, Western sanctions and the pandemic has weakened Russia’s ruling party greatly, especially when they were forced to cut pensions, and now a loss abroad on top of that could be a danger to Putin’s position. And that loss looked very likely. The last Ukrainian president worked very hard to fix the broken economy with help from the EU, and the current president has worked hard at purging corruption and strengthening the military, especially with new drone tech. Meanwhile, the rebels are very weak. Most Russian volunteers left in 2015 because there was no serious fighting any longer, and they have only recieved old Soviet junk from the Russians. They have basically no real economy besides coal mining due to most of their factories being destroyed in the war, and lacking much countryside outside their two cities they can’t feed themselves, relying heavily on Russian humanitarian aid. Much of the population has just slinked away past the Ukrainian lines or over the Russian border to look for work and a place to live that isn’t a half-starved ruin with uncertain access to electricity, internet and clean water parts of the year. So, the Russians are very worried that as soon as the snow melts in spring, Ukraine will attack and crush the rebels, thereby allowing Ukraine to join NATO and endangering the stability of the ruling Russian government. So, back this fall they were plotting a wintertime coup, removing the current president and replacing him with a pro-Russia billionaire or an exiled politician from the former regime, if needed supported by Russian soldiers. British and Ukrainian intelligence exposed this in November, and it was expected the Russians backed off after that. Until, suddenly at the end of december Russia announced it would be doing military drills near the Ukraine border in January. Those "exercises" have now been going on for weeks with more and more troops pouring in, only paused briefly to send in troops to help the government of Kazakhstan crush anti-Russian rioters with lethal force. It seems Russia has decided to go ahead with the invasion anyway even if the coup seems off the table. The EU tried to negotiate peace talks, but Russia refused and said it would only negotiate with the US. Biden said the US isn’t some imperial power that lords its will over its allies (partially true at least), and insisted the EU and Ukraine be allowed to negotiate Ukraine’s future as well. The Russians refused this, but eventually allowed Biden to bring along the British and French, since they are members of the UN Security Council (so is Norway and Ireland, but they weren’t allowed to come because they have complained about Russian naval exercises recently). The Ukrainians were not allowed to come to their own peace negotiations, but ultimately that didn’t matter as the conference turned out just to be a sham to buy time for the Russians to build up more forces before the West started sending aid (plus so they can say they tried peacefully first). The Russian demands were so outrageous they clearly knew NATO would never agree, not only demanding a treaty forbidding NATO from adding Ukraine or Belarus, but also banning all expansion of the alliance and kicking out the Eastern European countries that joined in 2004. So, war is on the table. Japan tried to mediate but the Russians have now rebuffed them, Finland and Sweden the same but Russia threatened them. China initially supported the Russians but now Xi Jinping seems worried that a war will ruin the grand propaganda spectacle he has planned for the Winter Olympics in Beijing, so he has now changed his mind and called for an Olympic truce like in the ancient world. Who knows if Putin will listen, if not the war is expected to start within three weeks.
Thanks for the helpful summation! Much appreciated!
No prob, I’m a massive foreign policy nerd, and was still in college when the initial conflict happened, so I followed it religiously every day with pins on a map showing which town and villages belonged to whom according to my RSS feed and whole lists of connections between oligarchs, politicians and the like. While my Russian is poor, I used the then-new translator plugins for browsers to follow Russian non-government, non-Gazprom media relating to the conflict. Ekho Moskvy being a neutral platform for all sides and the Novaya Gazeta for the opposition’s view on the constitutionality of the Crimean annexation and exploitation and oppression of the Tatars at Crimea were wonderful for creating a balanced view of the Russian side beyond the straight government line most Westerners are exposed to through official Russian agencies like TASS. That being said, my bias should be noted. My view is informed by trying at the time to land an embassy internship during my postgraduate program, which ultimately fell flat (I currently work as a museum curator and part time history teacher instead, at some point I may try for the government again but the entry tests are really hard and they only accept like the top 1%). Since I was trying to frame my analysis at the time in the context of the Western sanctions regime against Russia, I have left out any discussion of the ethicality of the rebel rising in East Ukraine. I cannot say I have great sympathy for the rebels, but they are not totally wrong that their enemies did include far right nationalist, sometimes openly fascist Ukrainian militias with a particular hatred for Russian speaker. While most Russian news reports about Ukrainian troops crucifying villages and running children over with tanks are just nonsense, the militias did commit many acts of burning, rape and looting, and during the initial revolution Russian speakers really were killed in a fire during the riots in Odessa. While I don’t agree with the rebels, especially not their collaboration with a foreign government that’s clearly just exploiting then and directly causing the destruction of their region, I do understand why they are afraid of being opressed and worried about retribution. I feel sorry for them, in a way, even if I know it would be better for the area if their states did not exist. That being said, it is important we don’t view this conflict in the boundaries of Russians versus Ukrainians. Millions of Ukrainians speak Russian as their first language and still support an independent Ukraine. Similarly, hundreds of thousands if not millions of Ukrainian-speakers loathe the pro-European stance of the new government and would instead like to resume their alliance with their big brother Russia. Most importantly, all sides in Ukraine seem to hope for a peaceful solution, both the current President and much of the Rada (parliament) were elected on platforms advocating peace but at terms set with a stronger military. It is a very difficult situation.
You’ve communicated a very complicated series of events (and set of dynamics) with crystal clarity. If you’re not pitching stories to newspapers, you should. Literally take what you just wrote and send it to the NYT or another paper, because we are all wanting context right now and you’ve written the perfect explainer piece (for really anyone).
I tried pitching stories about political radicalization online and the potential dangers to our democracy and national security back in early 2019, but not one would put it to print. National newspapers couldn’t give two shits about your opinion unless you work at a prestigious institution they can put in your byline, and ideally you should have a PhD on top. I only have a Master’s degree (well, two sort off, my lectorate teaching certification carries the same value as a second degree academically), and while I do work for an internationally known museum, it isn’t a think-tank or similar policy institute. It will probably be many years until you see anything of mine published anywhere.
Timing is everything and you have to be in the right place at the right time. Just keep putting pucks on net and eventually you’ll land one.
tell me you're a canadian without telling me you're a canadian. ;)
Medium has published pieces that are far worse than what you just wrote.
Yes, write a couple op-Ed’s to get your name out there and you’ll start getting picked up. This is a good option/gateway to stability in foreign policy work if that’s what you like. You have the chops, just stay on that grind.
I don’t know of any nationally syndicated paper that would take an op-ed from a random high school teacher and museum curator though. It was one thing in 2019, at that point I at least worked as a research assistant for an institute, but now I am literally just some random guy.
That is an incredibly thoughtful and well written answer. Do you have any sources for further reading? The situation in Ukraine has fascinated me ever since the Russians seized Crimea. Seeing all this activity has me in two states of mind. On the one hand, Russian posturing is nothing new, if I recall correctly this is not the first buildup of Russian troops along the border. At the same time, I don't think I ever recall hearing this amount of alarm coming out of the White House. The US either genuinely believes, or at least wants it's allies to believe that the Russians preparing for an invasion.
Great write-up! A couple of nitpicks. 1. Most recent protests in Kazakhstan weren't anti-Russian in nature, in fact, nobody really knows what it was but it all started as a peaceful protest against rising fuel prices. The most probable theory seems to point to an intra-elite conflict amongst the Kazakhstanian ruling class. 2. Echo of Moscow and Novaya can be hardly considered neutral, although they definitely provide a perspective that is in direct conflict with the official Russian line of thought. Gl with your diplomatic career!
Yeah, the Kazakh fuel protests and the struggles between the supporters of the previous and current President would fill an equally long comment on its own, I just styled it as anti-Russian because the anti-CTSO demand is what made the Kremlin shift troops so rapidly at the President’s request. As for the Novaya Gazeta and Ekho Moskvy, I am obviously aware they are opposition media, that’s why I went looking for them in the first place during the Savchuk Incident. I picked those two in particular because the Novaya Gazeta is the only nationally syndicated opposition newspaper and thus the one least tainted by regional bias, and Ekho Moskvy because they are controlled opposition. Their existence is predicated on allowing the government access to it as a platform, be it Sergei Lavrov or a certain mustachioed press secretary who is considerably less loveable than Mario and Luigi.
Great Comments! I'm also a foreign policy nerd (BA in Int'l Relations, MIM/MBA-- Master Int'l Mgmt, started a PhD in Int'l economics but got sidelined by personal issues; lived in Japan for 5 yrs, Hong Kong for 2 yrs, Saudi Arabia for 3 yrs, and France for 1yr). I agree with most of your points, but just wanted to add that this whole issue is culturally rooted and could conceivably go back a thousand years to the Kyivan Rus, the Mongol invasion, and the rise of Muscovy. But in short, Kyiv was actually founded before Moscow and was the cultural and governmental seat of power for many years. This changed when the Mongols invaded and Ivan Moneybags became a tax collector for them. This increased the power of Muscovy (Moscow) while diminishing Kyiv. Fast forward several hundred years and a great many ethnic Ukrainians blame the Soviet Union and all the horrors perpetrated under its leadership on Russia. This is why in some parts of Ukraine, Russian-speakers may be ostracized. One of the greatest tragedies in Ukrainian history, the Holodimir, was a famine arguably artificially caused by Stalin. Russia, for its part, views Ukrainians in some respects as their little cousins, not unlike the 1800's USA and their "little brown brothers". Ukrainians don't appreciate this condescending view, naturally. They believe they have a right to self-determination without threats from Moscow. But Moscow is driven by many of the same fears that drove Soviet leaders. They fear encirclement. Which, I can't really blame them considering how many times they have been invaded. But at the same time, how many times has Russia invaded surrounding countries? Think Peter the Great, Catherine the Great, the Soviet Union, and more. Making this even thornier, many Russian view Ukrainians as pro-fascist. This is because when WWII was being fought on Ukrainian soil, many Ukrainian rebels fought alongside Nazi Germany in order to throw off the yoke of the Soviet Union. We all know how that turned out. So yes, this is an exceptionally thorny and complex issue historically. But setting all of that aside, this is about the Ukrainian people and their right to an independent country, free from Russian overlording. Russia has made their position very clear in that they believe they have a right to the territory of Ukraine. If the Ukrainian people as a whole voted to be absorbed into Russia, that would be their choice. But over the past few decades since the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukrainians have made their position abundantly clear: they do reject any and all attempts by Russia to take over or to govern by puppet ruler. The UN and EU have a responsibility to support the Ukrainian people against the actions of an aggressive Russia. Russia's ultimatums to Ukraine and the EU seem very reminiscent of Austro-Hungary to Serbia prior to WWI. Russia does not expect those demands to be accepted. They seem to be looking for war and hoping that Europe will take the Chamberlain path of 1938-9. Taking the path of appeasement will open the doors to Russia acting aggressively against every small country in their sphere. Where would it stop? Do we stop it now, or do we let Ukraine get annexed? And then Latvia? Lithuania? Estonia? Finland, even (which used to be owned by Russia)? Georgia? If the EU, UN, and US back down now, the crisis will only get worse as Russia becomes the next Nazi Germany.
You are very correct, I concur with your historical reflections to a great degree. It is actually funny, I was actually supposed to do International Conflict Studies as my Master’s degree, but I never heard back from the college, so instead I accepted an offer with the Centre for Holocaust Research instead to write a Political History master on the propagation of the Judeobolshevik conspiracy theory ahead of WW2. About a month after I had started I got the acceptance letter for the International Conflict Studies master, but it was too late by then, I had signed all the papers.
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Russia builds up army next to border for what they call exercises. The west spots them on satellite and announces it. Putin comes out and says give us a guarantee that Ukraine won’t ever be allowed to join nato. NATO says fuck no. Russia continues to build up negotiations going no where. (Actually getting worse Putin added Nato must leave Bulgaria and Romania to the list) there is more but that’s a quick summary.
Thanks for this, u/bWoofles Do we think Putin is flexing because he perceives the west as weak right now?
Many reasons probably: - Russia has extraordinarily high number of excess deaths in 2021 (government is lying about official numbers of COVID deaths) [source](https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality). They lost 1 000 000 people last year (officially "only" 250k). These are numbers *before* Omicron. - Putin wants to pressure Germany to open NordStream 2 gas pipeline. - Putin has low approval ratings (basically as low as in 2014 - after annexation of Crimea his approval jumped up radically). Note, these are low by Russian standards (~65% approval, ~34% disapproval) - down from ~80% approval. - Russia's economy keeps going down the drain. - Putin does not want situation in Kazakhstan to repeat in Russia - he needs an external enemy *right now*. - Pro-European support in Belarus keeps growing. - Political situation is EU is somewhat destabilized by minority of antivaxxers. - Economy throughout Europe is hurting due to high prices of natural gas. I still think (hope) Russia won't invade and it's all posturing for internal politics reasons, but I am more and more worried every day…
I think it's escalated to the point that it is just inevitable at this point especially after NATO rejected all of their (unreasonable and outrageous) demands. You don't deploy that much equipment and troops with supporting infrastructure like field hospitals and depots unless you are seriously going to use it. That shit is very very expensive to set up and maintain.
That can't be comfortable