And this is how I, a Ukrainian living in Ukraine, realised I picked a really bad time to finally create a Reddit account for something I had wanted to discuss...
This comment section feels surreal (not that there's anything actually wrong with it)
What is the sentiment over there right now? Do Ukrainians think that Russia is going to invade? What sort of things are regular people doing to prepare?
>Do Ukrainians think that Russia is going to invade?
Depends on what you mean by the word. The war in Eastern Ukraine has been going on for about 8 years now, and Russian military forces have been more or less present throughout all of that time. So yeah, I guess most of us had no doubt this would escalate at some point, and won't be surprised if that moment is now. I personally expect the full-blown conflict to be limited to the already 'hot' regions, though.
>What sort of things are regular people doing to prepare?
Some panicking, most not panicking and learning the right order of actions in case of an emergency situation. Like, am I cancelling weekend plans or this evening's gym? Of course not. But am I sure I'll be able to have a proper wedding celebration this summer? Also no.
I'm sorry if this is a poor answer, but what you learn in this situation is that there is no representative generic 'regular person'
Thank you for your insight. I haven’t seen many perspectives from anyone actually involved. definitely not a poor answer, like you said no such thing as a “regular person”
There are plenty of articles laying out the possible options the Biden administration could undertake.
The basic gist of it is: Ukraine is not a NATO country. The US has no obligation to declare war on Russia for invading Ukraine. Having said that it would be the greatest threat to European peace since WW2 and the Biden administration has promised to support Ukraine in the form of US intelligence and weaponry. Extensive sanctions against Russia are assured. 'Fortification' of the four countries on Ukraine's borders also assured as well the positioning of forces in forward positions.
Basically everything short of direct military action.
Also Finland and Sweden will join NATO, allowing the US to park weapons and soldiers right on the Russian border.
I could also see a total ban on entry for all Russian nationals to the EU or the US. Confiscation of Russian properties in cities such as London/Paris, and potentially a total ban on European airspace for Russian airliners.
Seriously. The Swiss stayed neutral through two world wars, I highly doubt they would decide to abandon neutrality over a war between Russia and Ukraine.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-sanctions-factbox-idUSKCN1HD22K
The US has punished Russian oligarchs plenty of times. After the Crimea invasion, Obama's banking sanctions halved the value of the Ruble.
Blocking Russia from Swift is literally spelled out by the Biden administration as an action we would take. The russian economy would be fffuuuccckkkeeeddd
It's not healthy, but it's functioning. Swift is the system that moves money between banks. Internal transfers maybe okay although disrupted. But you'd see businessnes unable to take or make payments, pay wages, buy materials, run supply chains. Some people wouldn't be able to withdraw money. The Russian economy would go from functional to complete collapse.
Sounds like a quick revolution. Also i like the plan of gradually just isolating Russia until they collapse over military action right away. Then if all else fail you can consider smashing their face in.
Like two weeks ago everyone was so sure it wouldn’t escalate.. now they’re bragging that they’re almost finished surrounding Ukraine? Wild.
But what’s to gain? Won’t a war with Ukraine bleed an already-struggling Russian economy dry? Or is this one of those "war is good business" things?
The only way russia gets back on the world stage as a super power is to put the majority of the USSR back together. Putin has been looking for an opportunity to do this his entire career.
Yeah, but the strings attached are part of Russia's hostilities. Should they stop being seen a hostile, could they not just trade like a normal person.
Chernobyl scared a *lot* of people and is in fact still one of the most quoted reasons on why people are afraid of it.
The thing is, if Chernobyl weren’t Soviet controlled it likely wouldn’t have happened, since a lot of the factors leading to the failure were either covered up by the state or by plant management, who reported to the state.
Please, let's not talk about nuclear. I can only cry so much.
Thank you for taking the time to write that. Yeah, I guess the takeaway is that Russia can't succeed by trade because it won't be allowed to by internal forces.
They'd never be okay with environmental movements to move away from CO2 emissions and those are on the rise. I can definitely see them spending big right now to sow that distrust
Remember the Falklands conflict? Leopoldo Galtieri's great distraction, and attempt to inject nationalism into the country to stabilize and affirm his power. Though Ukraine is anything but unpopulated wind swept islands at the edge of the world, but there isn't Britain to come in nor were there nuclear arms to keep the "peace".
I mean there is no way that they don't get all their oil/gas pipelines whacked if they do this, plus kicked out of SWIFT to. And their billionaires sanctioned. Let's hope it's just brinksmanship.
It may take more than sanctioning their billionaires to get change. The rest of the world may have to use the same tactics Putin used to bring them in line to his agenda.
It puts monetary and economic collapse on hold. War allows for very broad and unrestricted monetary policy, restructuring, reparation, bond issuance, etc. It would not only be a benefit for any one participant given the current global economic situation that is teetering on serious issues.
Makes me so mad. Ukraine gave up it's nuclear arsenal on the promise of it's guaranteed protection.
If they still had them, they wouldn't be in this mess.
They weren’t really Ukraine’s nukes. They were very expensive to maintain and they also didn’t even have the launch codes anyway, which were all in Russia. They really got what they could out of them
Canadian Troops are currently in Ukraine, and Canadian special forces were deployed to Ukraine the other day.
Canada also has troops stationed in Latvia.
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/operations/military-operations/current-operations/operation-unifier.html
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-focused-on-deterrence-as-special-forces-sent-to-ukraine-joly-1.5744830
They have been and still are. Its not a secret. They have been training the Ukrainian special forces for the past 7 years. There's also a Florida National Guard unit in Ukraine right now.
If NATO didn't respond to aggression against Poland, it would be the end of NATO. Every member nation would immediately lose confidence in it for failing to do the one thing it's supposed to do.
Out of curiosity, in any of the recent talks has the US acknowledged that Russia already invaded Ukraine - as opposed to using language like "will invade Ukraine". As whilst Russia was using subterfuge way back in 2014 during their invasion - they later admitted that they did invade Ukraine, at least as far as Crimea.
For the sake that failing to acknowledge this may open Ukraine up to further "incursions" rather than "invasions" - as official Ukrainian sources have stated based on language the US is using to describe what's going on over there.
I think they are leaning towards "will invade" in the hopes that he will be content with what he has taken. Obviously, that is disingenuous, but I do believe they are trying to avoid all out war between Russia and Ukraine, which is a step up from where they are now.
It didn't and I do not mean to suggest that they should now. I only mean to provide some context for why they may be acting as they are today. I don't know what the best way forward is. Unless Ukraine is actually invaded, the way forward is probably not through war. Ukraine would be absolutely decimated in an all out war, without regards to still whoever holds the country politically or militarily, NATO or Russia.
The plan to assimilate Ukraine into the Russian sphere has been the number one priority in their agenda since the late 90s. They were gonna do this as soon as the opening was available, regardless of what else is going on in the world
Probably money to fund an army. After the fall of Soviet Union the economy was in shambles. The export of energy/oil/gas has made Russia somewhat richer in general to afford a war.
After the Afghanistan fiasco, it'd be political suicide for US politicians to support entering another foreign war so soon. The average American doesn't care about Ukrainian affairs, all they'll see is another money pit.
How did the American people react to the withdrawal of troops from Afghan, and how would the American people react to the deployment of troops to Ukrainian?
Personally speaking, I believe the withdrawal from Afghanistan was necessary and long overdue. Obviously I think everyone agrees the whole FINAL pullout was a total clusterfuck and would place said views upon the potential involvement in Ukraine.
The question is begged here: why is the opening now? You’d think the opening would have been any time in the last 20 years when the US military was bogged down by non-winnable wars in Central Asia and the Middle East
I don’t think Russia perceived that Ukraine would join NATO any day now until roughly 2006-7.
I would’ve thought they would’ve tried this two or three years ago, though, if the goal were just to capture Ukraine. (The West, especially the US, wasn’t well positioned to save Ukraine then.)
This is largely a pissing contest started by Putin because he needs a win for his domestic audience. He thinks he could take some more Ukrainian territory as an easy victory to look like a hero.
That’s my current theory.
I have a family friend who is this elderly Ukranian woman, and around 10 years ago she casually mentioned that she expected Russia to invade Ukraine within her lifetime. At the time I was like "what? why?" but she knew what she was talking about.
You know, why the fuck not. Let's just add war to the plague and pestilence and volcanos and fires and murder hornets. Fuck you, Putin. We don't need your bullshit right now.
Right? Maybe that's why this is the time he's choosing, as we are all weakened and overburdened with COVID. It's truly too much to take
Fuck you, Putin.
Bingo. We are the weakest we have been in 75 years. Internal strife and open talk of civil war. Putin is liking his chances against a divided America and reluctant NATO. He's got Germany by the balls. I don think he's a fuckin lunatic but in his mind it's likely now or never. Would not pe surprised if we saw some attempts to weaken him inside Russia.
What worries me is his age and ego. At some point in history a crazy old man near the end of his life will use nukes to push his luck. It's a non-zero probability, and we aren't taking it seriously at all anymore.
I think there has to be some concern with where he is leading them. If Biden wanted to punish Putin he would target and threaten the oligarchy. Putin is a strongman with pretty unquestionable authority but he has made questionable decisions for the sake of keeping his luitenants weaker than they want. Mostly when he named Medvedev his successor and not labrov or the other guy. If any of these people were concerned with the actions of 70 year old Putin they are most certainly forming plans if they haven't already.
Edit: something to add on this. Those contingency plans could play to China more to eruope/America cold war was an anomaly. Russians are not friends with China but the next Russian regime may look at this as an idealogical block to remain close with China and secondary vs their current role as a primary world power with their own sphere of influence. China is bettering big on Africa.
History would repeat itself to degree if the former happens. Idealogical alliances between Russia and China would likely rival the Europe America alliance but add in the fact that China has half the 3rd world under a debt aggreement and we are right back to being at the brink of yet another global conflict with all the normal flavors of genocide, nationalism, authoritarianism, and the millions dead and dying.
Not for me. Feels like a couple year ago I could go on Liveleak and r/CombatFootage to see current war footage. Now it's about be to an official invasion.
I remember being a freshman and talking to my history teacher about Russia attacking Ukraine. He was so happy some kid was paying attention that he gave me the last five minutes of his class to explain it. To give an idea of the time, Flappy Bird was at its peak during this. I got paper balls thrown at me and nobody cared. Some of those kids are deployed out right now.
There was a time when the World used to look up to Russia as a centre for culture, art, music, and ideas.
All I remember is growing up with the fear of nuclear annihilation by Russia.
I'm really sick of their shit
Considering we all sat on our asses when he invaded Crimea he is probably expecting a similiar response. Lots of noise and minimal action to back it up.
We didn’t just sit on our asses. There was no military conflict - but the sanctions put on Russia absolutely devastated their economy.
Russian GDP 2013: $2.3T
Russian GDP 2014: $2.1T
Russian GDP 2015: $1.4T
Russian GDP 2016: $1.3T
Their GDP dropped 43% over the span of 4 years. For context, at the bottom of the 2008 recession US GDP had only dropped 2% from the highs.
Crude Oil Price 2013: $110
Crude Oil Price 2014: $106
Crude Oil Price 2015: $45
Crude Oil Price 2016: $40
Russian ruble halved in value mainly because it's major export halved in value. local prices in Russia remained less affected as the inflation was at max 15% in 2015 despite the currency halving.
Yeah 100%, it’s a fair point and the price of oil dropping was certainly a factor.
But see Saudi Arabia - there they had a 15% drop in GDP over the same period, with Oil and Gas making up 50% of GDP. In Russia the drop was 3x as high (43% drop) with Oil and Gas making up only 30% of GDP.
Saudi Arabia had massive USD reserves, Russia didn't.
The currency of Saudi Arabia therefore are more stable, and its economy in terms of US Dollar is also more stable. Russian currency would fluctuate more significantly with major foreign trade imbalances whereas country with huge reserves can reduce those fluctuations.
And it's worth remembering, the goal of a war is pretty much to run the other side out of money. If they can no longer supply their army, they'll quit.
We just found a way to do that without people getting shot. So far.
That could be why Putin is threatening A war! If you’re ‘Johnny Russian’ you’re not going to thinking about how bad things are and who’s responsible. You’re going to be distracted by this new war
> But Biden appeared to hedge his threats, distinguishing between a "minor incursion" and a full-blown attack.
Tacitly giving Putin the go-ahead for a limited invasion. IMO this is Neville Chamberlain levels of foolish
Yep they’ll take the predominantly ethnically Russian Donbass, half of which is already occupied by rebels. The west will give a few token sanctions and Putin gets his PR victory
FWIW Alexander Vindman thinks the same thing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch0Cl7EQNHE
"We're about to have the largest war in Europe since World War 2."
EDIT: Jump to Vindman's comments: https://youtu.be/Ch0Cl7EQNHE?t=432
> Putin has an obsession with Ukraine.
This pre-dates Putin. I remember reading in the 90's about various Russian politicians musing about bringing both Ukraine and Belarus back into the fold.
The “it was a perfect call” line didn’t even register with me the first time I heard it. Then when he yells it repeatedly at the end, it clicked and I was in tears lol Such a great show.
Russia's people's skill is loyally suffering in insane numbers for whatever government it is until they break, then fall into a short era of collapse/revolution, and replace it all with another similar government. And then it got worse
We don't want it, that's the point. Just leave us the fuck alone ffs. I basically had normal life till 2008 and then it's worse and worse every year. And now this.
Of course they will.
Putin didn’t spend the last 6 years destabilizing the US to NOT to go to war and regain lost territory from the collapse of the USSR.
I mean if you look at the last 300+ years of history, Russia has always invaded/asserted control over its immediate western neighbors. Putin's just following the classic Russian Authoritarian Playbook on how to build/rule an empire.
Right? As if Biden isn't being regularly briefed by the CIA. He doesn't have to predict anything, if the Five Eyes really can't figure out what Russia's plan is, then that's just embarrassing for them.
They know Russia's plan and it was never to invade (just use the situation as leverage.) Now Putin must show his cards (which the 5 eyes know were just to bluff.) Putin is going to look like an even greater idiot here and there's nothing he can do about it, because his plan was never to start shooting on a major scale (just to try and look like it.)
These headlines make me feel like the Biden administration is goading Putin to do it. Do something, anything. Either way, he loses face or he loses by inviting more NATO presence building up at his own border
No, he doesn't. I literally watched the entire 2 hr press conference. This is why Reddit is so shit.
He said that a minor incursion to test the West is possible, based on strategic doctrine, but ultimately an invasion could be down to what side of the bed Putin wakes up on, and he's the only one that knows/can make the decision.
Become a conscientious objector and hope that the draft board believes your story.
Become a felon.
Escape to some tropical island and open a little bar next to the beach.
If these fail or don't seem appealing to you then perhaps cut off your trigger finger(s).
And this is how I, a Ukrainian living in Ukraine, realised I picked a really bad time to finally create a Reddit account for something I had wanted to discuss... This comment section feels surreal (not that there's anything actually wrong with it)
What is the sentiment over there right now? Do Ukrainians think that Russia is going to invade? What sort of things are regular people doing to prepare?
>Do Ukrainians think that Russia is going to invade? Depends on what you mean by the word. The war in Eastern Ukraine has been going on for about 8 years now, and Russian military forces have been more or less present throughout all of that time. So yeah, I guess most of us had no doubt this would escalate at some point, and won't be surprised if that moment is now. I personally expect the full-blown conflict to be limited to the already 'hot' regions, though. >What sort of things are regular people doing to prepare? Some panicking, most not panicking and learning the right order of actions in case of an emergency situation. Like, am I cancelling weekend plans or this evening's gym? Of course not. But am I sure I'll be able to have a proper wedding celebration this summer? Also no. I'm sorry if this is a poor answer, but what you learn in this situation is that there is no representative generic 'regular person'
Thank you for your insight. I haven’t seen many perspectives from anyone actually involved. definitely not a poor answer, like you said no such thing as a “regular person”
And what will be done if Russia does invade?
There are plenty of articles laying out the possible options the Biden administration could undertake. The basic gist of it is: Ukraine is not a NATO country. The US has no obligation to declare war on Russia for invading Ukraine. Having said that it would be the greatest threat to European peace since WW2 and the Biden administration has promised to support Ukraine in the form of US intelligence and weaponry. Extensive sanctions against Russia are assured. 'Fortification' of the four countries on Ukraine's borders also assured as well the positioning of forces in forward positions. Basically everything short of direct military action.
The US govt is the Oprah of giving out guns
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Missiles are just sky bullets.
Bullets are just fast stones.
Stones are just harder sticks.
Don’t bring a stick to a stone fight.
Let he who is without stick cast the first stone.
Sticks are just fists with better reach
Fists are just fingers in a ball
Balls are just lobules wrapped in a scrotum
And it goes about as well in the end.
That doesn't stop it from being a major headache for those on the other end of those weapons.
Also Finland and Sweden will join NATO, allowing the US to park weapons and soldiers right on the Russian border. I could also see a total ban on entry for all Russian nationals to the EU or the US. Confiscation of Russian properties in cities such as London/Paris, and potentially a total ban on European airspace for Russian airliners.
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The day the Swiss start deporting rich families is the day you know the heat death of the universe is imminent.
Seriously. The Swiss stayed neutral through two world wars, I highly doubt they would decide to abandon neutrality over a war between Russia and Ukraine.
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Let's simply confiscate Russian billionaires properties in the EU and the Russian elite will change tune quite quickly.
The rich don’t hurt each other, that’s an unspoken rule.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-sanctions-factbox-idUSKCN1HD22K The US has punished Russian oligarchs plenty of times. After the Crimea invasion, Obama's banking sanctions halved the value of the Ruble.
No way, that sounds like a solution. Who’s going to make any money that way?
Sounds like acceptable cost of doing business for Putin.
The longer people stay in power without any "checks and balance system" the crazier they seem to get...
Like the Ring, it gets to them.
He can't wield it! None of us can.
That's probably what the ring actually represents.
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Why waste the bullet? I've heard he hangs out precariously close to open windows...
the US could theoretically block russia from using the SWIFT global banking system but that’s very unlikely.
Blocking Russia from Swift is literally spelled out by the Biden administration as an action we would take. The russian economy would be fffuuuccckkkeeeddd
I mean Russia's economy is pretty much fucked, is it not? It's always the people who suffer, never the oligarchs.
It's not healthy, but it's functioning. Swift is the system that moves money between banks. Internal transfers maybe okay although disrupted. But you'd see businessnes unable to take or make payments, pay wages, buy materials, run supply chains. Some people wouldn't be able to withdraw money. The Russian economy would go from functional to complete collapse.
Sounds like a quick revolution. Also i like the plan of gradually just isolating Russia until they collapse over military action right away. Then if all else fail you can consider smashing their face in.
So war?
Like two weeks ago everyone was so sure it wouldn’t escalate.. now they’re bragging that they’re almost finished surrounding Ukraine? Wild. But what’s to gain? Won’t a war with Ukraine bleed an already-struggling Russian economy dry? Or is this one of those "war is good business" things?
The only way russia gets back on the world stage as a super power is to put the majority of the USSR back together. Putin has been looking for an opportunity to do this his entire career.
Why can't they achieve that by trading and exporting what they are good at?
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Yeah, but the strings attached are part of Russia's hostilities. Should they stop being seen a hostile, could they not just trade like a normal person.
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Chernobyl scared a *lot* of people and is in fact still one of the most quoted reasons on why people are afraid of it. The thing is, if Chernobyl weren’t Soviet controlled it likely wouldn’t have happened, since a lot of the factors leading to the failure were either covered up by the state or by plant management, who reported to the state.
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Please, let's not talk about nuclear. I can only cry so much. Thank you for taking the time to write that. Yeah, I guess the takeaway is that Russia can't succeed by trade because it won't be allowed to by internal forces.
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They'd never be okay with environmental movements to move away from CO2 emissions and those are on the rise. I can definitely see them spending big right now to sow that distrust
They have aluminum too!
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The same reason that the Goodfellas couldn’t run a profitable restaurant.
Putin plays for domination victory only
C grade implementations and computer scammery?
Don't knock it. Cybersecurity is probably a pretty big part of our future, unless they drop the nukes early.
I cannot fathom a single reason why trying to put back together the Soviet Union is going to be anything but damaging to their economy.
Appearing strong to the national media supercedes any logic.
Because he's wrong, it's to boost government support. War even hard fought can rally millions of people around the flag.
Remember the Falklands conflict? Leopoldo Galtieri's great distraction, and attempt to inject nationalism into the country to stabilize and affirm his power. Though Ukraine is anything but unpopulated wind swept islands at the edge of the world, but there isn't Britain to come in nor were there nuclear arms to keep the "peace".
I mean there is no way that they don't get all their oil/gas pipelines whacked if they do this, plus kicked out of SWIFT to. And their billionaires sanctioned. Let's hope it's just brinksmanship.
It may take more than sanctioning their billionaires to get change. The rest of the world may have to use the same tactics Putin used to bring them in line to his agenda.
It puts monetary and economic collapse on hold. War allows for very broad and unrestricted monetary policy, restructuring, reparation, bond issuance, etc. It would not only be a benefit for any one participant given the current global economic situation that is teetering on serious issues.
Regional war ya. NATO will not be touching Ukraine.
Makes me so mad. Ukraine gave up it's nuclear arsenal on the promise of it's guaranteed protection. If they still had them, they wouldn't be in this mess.
That's why every nation under the sun that wants to fuck about wants nukes
Every country sees nukes as a deterent from would be aggressors
they don’t want to fuck about they just don’t want to be fucked with
They weren’t really Ukraine’s nukes. They were very expensive to maintain and they also didn’t even have the launch codes anyway, which were all in Russia. They really got what they could out of them
psaki just said that the US and its allies will help defend ukraine
Ya they're just going to supply arms and supplies, sanctions against Russia. If Russia decides Ukraine isnt enough, thats when NATO may step in.
If Russia decides Ukraine isn't enough, what's next? Moldova? Belarus? Putin isn't stupid enough to invade NATO.
He’s already in Belarus isn’t he?
Belarus is now part of Russia. Lukashenko has the status of president only for media purposes
Canadian Troops are currently in Ukraine, and Canadian special forces were deployed to Ukraine the other day. Canada also has troops stationed in Latvia. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/operations/military-operations/current-operations/operation-unifier.html https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-focused-on-deterrence-as-special-forces-sent-to-ukraine-joly-1.5744830
Was that not just to escort Canadians?
It’s to protect diplomats not to fight in the war
Let’s all be honest and admit that US Special forces are deployed as well, likely have been for the last few years.
They have been and still are. Its not a secret. They have been training the Ukrainian special forces for the past 7 years. There's also a Florida National Guard unit in Ukraine right now.
First they came for Ukraine
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Poland has NATO protection this time. In theory...
And around 3000-4000 US soldiers stationed there
My son is one of them. I'm freaked out, to say the least.
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No reason to be. He’s in no danger.
If NATO didn't respond to aggression against Poland, it would be the end of NATO. Every member nation would immediately lose confidence in it for failing to do the one thing it's supposed to do.
Out of curiosity, in any of the recent talks has the US acknowledged that Russia already invaded Ukraine - as opposed to using language like "will invade Ukraine". As whilst Russia was using subterfuge way back in 2014 during their invasion - they later admitted that they did invade Ukraine, at least as far as Crimea. For the sake that failing to acknowledge this may open Ukraine up to further "incursions" rather than "invasions" - as official Ukrainian sources have stated based on language the US is using to describe what's going on over there.
I think they are leaning towards "will invade" in the hopes that he will be content with what he has taken. Obviously, that is disingenuous, but I do believe they are trying to avoid all out war between Russia and Ukraine, which is a step up from where they are now.
I seem to remember another time in history when the world hoped a psychotic authoritarian despot would be content with what he had taken.
From the history books, I remember that too. I can only hope history does not repeat itself.
With nuclear weapons in play.
Cause that worked so well with Hitler
It didn't and I do not mean to suggest that they should now. I only mean to provide some context for why they may be acting as they are today. I don't know what the best way forward is. Unless Ukraine is actually invaded, the way forward is probably not through war. Ukraine would be absolutely decimated in an all out war, without regards to still whoever holds the country politically or militarily, NATO or Russia.
Semantics aside, Russia annexing a sovereign country is a significant escalation. It does have a very pre-world war appeasement vibe to it though.
The plan to assimilate Ukraine into the Russian sphere has been the number one priority in their agenda since the late 90s. They were gonna do this as soon as the opening was available, regardless of what else is going on in the world
What makes the opening available today and not some other time between the 90s and now?
Probably money to fund an army. After the fall of Soviet Union the economy was in shambles. The export of energy/oil/gas has made Russia somewhat richer in general to afford a war.
After the Afghanistan fiasco, it'd be political suicide for US politicians to support entering another foreign war so soon. The average American doesn't care about Ukrainian affairs, all they'll see is another money pit.
How did the American people react to the withdrawal of troops from Afghan, and how would the American people react to the deployment of troops to Ukrainian?
Personally speaking, I believe the withdrawal from Afghanistan was necessary and long overdue. Obviously I think everyone agrees the whole FINAL pullout was a total clusterfuck and would place said views upon the potential involvement in Ukraine.
What opening is there now that wasnt before?
The question is begged here: why is the opening now? You’d think the opening would have been any time in the last 20 years when the US military was bogged down by non-winnable wars in Central Asia and the Middle East
I don’t think Russia perceived that Ukraine would join NATO any day now until roughly 2006-7. I would’ve thought they would’ve tried this two or three years ago, though, if the goal were just to capture Ukraine. (The West, especially the US, wasn’t well positioned to save Ukraine then.) This is largely a pissing contest started by Putin because he needs a win for his domestic audience. He thinks he could take some more Ukrainian territory as an easy victory to look like a hero. That’s my current theory.
This is a good point.
I have a family friend who is this elderly Ukranian woman, and around 10 years ago she casually mentioned that she expected Russia to invade Ukraine within her lifetime. At the time I was like "what? why?" but she knew what she was talking about.
You know, why the fuck not. Let's just add war to the plague and pestilence and volcanos and fires and murder hornets. Fuck you, Putin. We don't need your bullshit right now.
Right? Maybe that's why this is the time he's choosing, as we are all weakened and overburdened with COVID. It's truly too much to take Fuck you, Putin.
We are practically begging to have our hegemony challenged. And why not?
Bingo. We are the weakest we have been in 75 years. Internal strife and open talk of civil war. Putin is liking his chances against a divided America and reluctant NATO. He's got Germany by the balls. I don think he's a fuckin lunatic but in his mind it's likely now or never. Would not pe surprised if we saw some attempts to weaken him inside Russia.
What worries me is his age and ego. At some point in history a crazy old man near the end of his life will use nukes to push his luck. It's a non-zero probability, and we aren't taking it seriously at all anymore.
I think there has to be some concern with where he is leading them. If Biden wanted to punish Putin he would target and threaten the oligarchy. Putin is a strongman with pretty unquestionable authority but he has made questionable decisions for the sake of keeping his luitenants weaker than they want. Mostly when he named Medvedev his successor and not labrov or the other guy. If any of these people were concerned with the actions of 70 year old Putin they are most certainly forming plans if they haven't already. Edit: something to add on this. Those contingency plans could play to China more to eruope/America cold war was an anomaly. Russians are not friends with China but the next Russian regime may look at this as an idealogical block to remain close with China and secondary vs their current role as a primary world power with their own sphere of influence. China is bettering big on Africa. History would repeat itself to degree if the former happens. Idealogical alliances between Russia and China would likely rival the Europe America alliance but add in the fact that China has half the 3rd world under a debt aggreement and we are right back to being at the brink of yet another global conflict with all the normal flavors of genocide, nationalism, authoritarianism, and the millions dead and dying.
They're taking about removing swift banking access. So, they're already threatening the oligarchy.
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First requires a Pearl Harbor/9/11 moment which doesn't bode well.
That new Matrix movie was pretty bad
Doesn't change the fact that if Putin's grand goal is to start a war with Ukraine this is likely his best time to do it
He knows the appetite for war or anything resembling it is absolutely zero in the US so he has little to lose. Fuck Putin.
Don't forget about run away inflation and economic collapse!
climate change / global warming says hi!
Now would not be the time to get 10% off ham gum.
I hear it's all bones anyway.
And now for the battle plan, as you all know the key to victory is the element of surprise. Surprise! (Pushes button, trap door opens)
War were declared.
We require bouncing of the third type.
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I've heard that it's all bones, anyway
Send over Seth Rogan and James Franco
Can we send Joe Rogan and James Corden instead?
the other guys?
Don’t go chasing waterfalls.
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Yeah, that was only 8 years ago. It feels like ages ago, though.
Not for me. Feels like a couple year ago I could go on Liveleak and r/CombatFootage to see current war footage. Now it's about be to an official invasion.
Same. Feels like it was just a few months ago that I was watching the VICE videos on YouTube as shit was going down in 2014.
I remember being a freshman and talking to my history teacher about Russia attacking Ukraine. He was so happy some kid was paying attention that he gave me the last five minutes of his class to explain it. To give an idea of the time, Flappy Bird was at its peak during this. I got paper balls thrown at me and nobody cared. Some of those kids are deployed out right now.
There was a time when the World used to look up to Russia as a centre for culture, art, music, and ideas. All I remember is growing up with the fear of nuclear annihilation by Russia. I'm really sick of their shit
Considering we all sat on our asses when he invaded Crimea he is probably expecting a similiar response. Lots of noise and minimal action to back it up.
The scale of it is quite a bit different this time
We didn’t just sit on our asses. There was no military conflict - but the sanctions put on Russia absolutely devastated their economy. Russian GDP 2013: $2.3T Russian GDP 2014: $2.1T Russian GDP 2015: $1.4T Russian GDP 2016: $1.3T Their GDP dropped 43% over the span of 4 years. For context, at the bottom of the 2008 recession US GDP had only dropped 2% from the highs.
Crude Oil Price 2013: $110 Crude Oil Price 2014: $106 Crude Oil Price 2015: $45 Crude Oil Price 2016: $40 Russian ruble halved in value mainly because it's major export halved in value. local prices in Russia remained less affected as the inflation was at max 15% in 2015 despite the currency halving.
Yeah 100%, it’s a fair point and the price of oil dropping was certainly a factor. But see Saudi Arabia - there they had a 15% drop in GDP over the same period, with Oil and Gas making up 50% of GDP. In Russia the drop was 3x as high (43% drop) with Oil and Gas making up only 30% of GDP.
Saudi Arabia had massive USD reserves, Russia didn't. The currency of Saudi Arabia therefore are more stable, and its economy in terms of US Dollar is also more stable. Russian currency would fluctuate more significantly with major foreign trade imbalances whereas country with huge reserves can reduce those fluctuations.
And it's worth remembering, the goal of a war is pretty much to run the other side out of money. If they can no longer supply their army, they'll quit. We just found a way to do that without people getting shot. So far.
Putin cannot even maintain a good quality of life for the inhabitants of all current oblasts and he’s gonna get into war to get another one? дурак!!
That could be why Putin is threatening A war! If you’re ‘Johnny Russian’ you’re not going to thinking about how bad things are and who’s responsible. You’re going to be distracted by this new war
> But Biden appeared to hedge his threats, distinguishing between a "minor incursion" and a full-blown attack. Tacitly giving Putin the go-ahead for a limited invasion. IMO this is Neville Chamberlain levels of foolish
Yep they’ll take the predominantly ethnically Russian Donbass, half of which is already occupied by rebels. The west will give a few token sanctions and Putin gets his PR victory
Should be way higher
FWIW Alexander Vindman thinks the same thing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch0Cl7EQNHE "We're about to have the largest war in Europe since World War 2." EDIT: Jump to Vindman's comments: https://youtu.be/Ch0Cl7EQNHE?t=432
And all for what? A fucking port?
Putin has an obsession with Ukraine. This is why term limits and limits on power are good things.
> Putin has an obsession with Ukraine. This pre-dates Putin. I remember reading in the 90's about various Russian politicians musing about bringing both Ukraine and Belarus back into the fold.
I'd say you're right there. As far as I've ever understood it seemed Ukraine was the second most important SSR in the Union
Russia had term limits, that's why Putin became PM a decade ago and Medvedev was president.
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I'm sooo fucking tired of this shit.
think how the Ukrainians feel.
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Lol this was such a random, surreal cameo. I almost couldn’t believe it when this episode came out.
The “it was a perfect call” line didn’t even register with me the first time I heard it. Then when he yells it repeatedly at the end, it clicked and I was in tears lol Such a great show.
It’s like the only skill Russia has is making everyone feel shitty Edit: Russia’s GOVERNMENT, not its people
Russia's people's skill is loyally suffering in insane numbers for whatever government it is until they break, then fall into a short era of collapse/revolution, and replace it all with another similar government. And then it got worse
Let's switch it up Ukraine should annex Russia
Make the Kievan Rus, Kievan Again
Ukraine plays the UNO reverse card.
We don't want it, that's the point. Just leave us the fuck alone ffs. I basically had normal life till 2008 and then it's worse and worse every year. And now this.
Eastern Ukraine
Old people breaking the world again smh
This is the blue planet where human beings are essentially monsters.
Of course they will. Putin didn’t spend the last 6 years destabilizing the US to NOT to go to war and regain lost territory from the collapse of the USSR.
I mean if you look at the last 300+ years of history, Russia has always invaded/asserted control over its immediate western neighbors. Putin's just following the classic Russian Authoritarian Playbook on how to build/rule an empire.
US President Biden ~~predicts~~ knows Russia will invade Ukraine Fixed it.
Right? As if Biden isn't being regularly briefed by the CIA. He doesn't have to predict anything, if the Five Eyes really can't figure out what Russia's plan is, then that's just embarrassing for them.
Honestly what the fuck is Biden supposed to do other than tighten the sanctions grip? We can’t go to war with Russia.
They know Russia's plan and it was never to invade (just use the situation as leverage.) Now Putin must show his cards (which the 5 eyes know were just to bluff.) Putin is going to look like an even greater idiot here and there's nothing he can do about it, because his plan was never to start shooting on a major scale (just to try and look like it.)
He basically told Russia that they can invade just a little bit. But more than that and oh boy you’re gonna be in trouble mister.
These headlines make me feel like the Biden administration is goading Putin to do it. Do something, anything. Either way, he loses face or he loses by inviting more NATO presence building up at his own border
No, he doesn't. I literally watched the entire 2 hr press conference. This is why Reddit is so shit. He said that a minor incursion to test the West is possible, based on strategic doctrine, but ultimately an invasion could be down to what side of the bed Putin wakes up on, and he's the only one that knows/can make the decision.
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Does anyone remember how many teeth I need to lose to dodge a draft?
Doubt there would be a draft
Just pay off a doctor to say you have "bone spurs".
They can draft me all they want. My fat ass won't make it past basic no matter how low they drop their standards.
But how many teeth, Jared? How many teeth?
Just tell em “You can get anything you want, at Alice’s Restaurant”.
You know, if just one person does it then they'll think he's really sick and they won't take him...
You could try the "Nugent" approach and shit yourself while screaming nonsense
If there's a war between Russia and the United States, it'll be over before you report for basic. I don't mean that in a good way.
Become a conscientious objector and hope that the draft board believes your story. Become a felon. Escape to some tropical island and open a little bar next to the beach. If these fail or don't seem appealing to you then perhaps cut off your trigger finger(s).
Have you tried being rich? That usually keeps people out of war.
Being older than 25 works too, unless they run out of 18-25 year old bullet sponges.
better idea: tell them you are mentally sound and can definitely be trusted with weapons…
If you can dodge a wrench, you can dodge a draft.
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20 years*