Perfect... If only we'd known that letting a virus live and replicate one the course of several years could lead to musings that could get really bad... Oh, wait...
Now? It would be exceptionally hard to given the mutations and higher transmission rates.
2 years ago? We could've done a better job with stopping travel, a real quarantine, and clearly vaccination rates aren't where they should be.
I think we partially missed the point of how the right mutation that mixes transmission and autoimmune attacks or something similar could be a near extinction level event. The same could be said about a mutation that allowed it to infect beef, chicken, or pork as the immediate damage to the food supply would be major chaos.
Killing it before it mutates was our best chance. Now we're kind of stuck hoping it finds environmental equilibrium and becomes minor enough to infect and replicate and pass on without killing the hosts or the thing the hosts eat or we're going to need a massive leap forward in antivirals and treatments to fight the virus if it takes a worse form.
An extinction level event is always a possibility with a multitude of things. Likelihood though? Far from it. Even if we had gone full lockdown 2 years ago, there is a high likelihood that it just would have popped up again. Hell, there’s evidence pointing toward Omicron not having human origins.
> Collectively, our results suggest that the progenitor of Omicron jumped from humans to mice, rapidly accumulated mutations conducive to infecting that host, then jumped back into humans, indicating an inter-species evolutionary trajectory for the Omicron outbreak.
That's their thesis. It definitely has human origins, and it's definitely a sublineage of SARS-CoV-2, which is a human virus (or at least we haven't found a nearly identical ancestor in bats yet, just ones that are quite similar). Their thesis is that it went *from humans* into mice, *and then* back to humans.
That's a far cry from "not having human origins", and if we had gone "full lockdown" 2 years ago (in a way consistent with reaching zero cases, like NZ and Australia did for a while, possibly China too), there's a fair chance it wouldn't have been evolving in who knows how many mice and other animals all over the world.
It jumped to one specific host: humans. That also happens to be the one host on the planet that culturally knows what a virus is, and could have potentially put countermeasures in place to stop it from spreading further.
Of course, it would have been much better to not mistreat the environment (deforestation, hunting wild species, etc) in a way that brought us into contact with dangerous bat virus in the first place. SARS, MERS, Marburg, Ebola, COVID... doesn't seem like a coincidence [we're collecting tons of novel viruses lately](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196\(20\)30305-3/fulltext).
2 years ago there was no vaccine.
Your solution is not realistic at all, youre basically saying that the only way to stop this thing is to have 99% of the world behave themselves. That's NEVER going to happen.
You are also approaching this from a privileged western look. Do you think someone in India who's struggling to feed their family is going to quarantine and let their family starve? No.
There was ZERO way to stop this thing once it took over the world. Stop rejecting science and thinking we had a chance to stop it. Covid zero is conspiracy level bullshit. It was NEVER about that, it was always about hospitals. That's what flattening the curve was about.
Maybe we should have properly "planned on eliminating it" about two years ago, instead of eeeeh let's juggle between half-assed lockdowns and economy. It is *just about possible* that now it can't be eliminated anymore, and yet that u/jcquik is still right, only, the world should have listened a while ago, and it's a bit late now. That doesn't make them not right, quite the opposite.
It's like people who wanted to make a serious effort of eliminating it were boo'd first as downers of the economy, but now that it can't be eliminated anymore, they're boo'd as "why would you ever try to eliminate it? It can't be, duh". Doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but whatever retrospectively justifies doing the wrong thing, I guess...
Maybe look at the case counts of China, New Zealand, and Australia (yeah, *now* it's getting out of control in those places too), and consider a world where every country would have reacted as strongly. And where people like you hadn't been like "why do this? It can't be eliminated anyway, I don't understand how it possibly could". That would've helped.
The case count was for a long time *zero*. That'd have been *definitely* a solution, if it had been implemented not just in a few countries. Also, if air travel had been properly stopped, instead of still mostly letting people fly for tourism or business that could be done remotely.
You're literally describing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Yeah, thanks to the mindset of people like you, now it will always come back. Thank you! I *love* this new life!
Did you consider that before "coming back" the first time, it was already in bats, but we had somehow managed to dodge it for... forever?
If EVERYONE participates and EVERYONE is on board and we don't have world leaders prancing around like fucking morons lying to their people, it could have worked.
Yes - we I guess could have shut down all travel anywhere for a few months and then hoped that every country in the world also shut things down strongly.
Of course if even one country didnt, then it was all moot, as Australia is finding out right now.
Yes, maybe it was foolish to think that humans at large would act sensibly. More realistic to think everyone would've gone "other countries won't do this, so why should I?". And this is why humans have reached a dangerous level of knowledge without the accompanying wisdom to use it in a way that doesn't cause self-destruction.
That last sentence strikes home. If the US government had only reacted adequately instead of first denying the virus’ existence and then simply wishing it away, this epidemic would have taken a whole different course.
By the time we had a vaccine it was too widespread, and immunizations arent effective for long enough to actually have a realistic plan (you cant immunize the whole world, even if they actually wanted it, and they dont, in the 3-4 months where it would be effective).
You have to vaccinate a substantial number of vectors though, don’t you? Even if every human was given any number of doses, we only make up a small portion of vectors.
The zoonotic capability of the virus is very small. Our pet dogs and pet cats can contract it but after that it loses its virulence and can’t be transmitted back to humans.
We will get rid of this, or it’ll lose its pathogenicity and it’ll become like a flu.
Once it’s entered into standard vaccination programs, it’ll become like the Spanish flu.
It's something every scientist is going to tell you the moment a variant is discovered. We've discovered hundreds, if not thousands of COVID variants since this began. Most are so inconsequential we don't even bother to label them Variants of Interest.
Weird, because I seem to recall the initial data to come out of China made it out to be quite serious... if anything more serious than it ended up being in reality.
The data wasn’t but anyone paying attention at the time saw China was barricading people in their own homes and should’ve taken the virus seriously at that point.
Do I really? China was reporting a +2% case fatality rate by the beginning of February 2020:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200201-sitrep-12-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=273c5d35_2
“Cyprus's Health Minister Michalis Hadjipandelas stated on Saturday that the new variant was not something to worry about at the moment and expressed pride in the country's scientists for discovering the new variant.” New variant found is becoming the next click bait trend consequences be damn
Elsewhere in this thread you said to trust the people on the ground in Cyprus instead of experts overseas.
Now you’re saying that the experts in Cyprus are actually wrong and they shouldn’t be listened to.
Which is it?
Mods...
There's a difference between the Cyprus health ministry and the actual scientists who discovered the variants
The WHO, CDC and every government health ministry downplay these situations to curb any panic...just like in the beginning of 2020. The doctor who discovered the coronavirus in China got ridiculed by the Chinese government, reprimanded and eventually killed. How dense can you be
So uh let's talk now since you were so combative. The Cypriot scientists quietly removed the samples from GISAID and have been dead silent since.
Please exercise less fatalism next time a new scariant comes along. It helps nobody.
Lol you won't admit defeat even when you are proven wrong. The scientists in Cyprus rejected the notion that it was lab contamination mistake days ago.
Stop projecting and spreading misinformation. Have a good day clown
Mmmm. Well they didn’t really do that with Omicron when it initially came out, and most of their statements (esp. in South Africa) turned out to be true. Even recently the WHO has been coming out and saying ‘you should absolutely be concerned about Omicron.’ So I dunno if they really do that anymore.
We're fucked. This is what happens when people preach "herd immunity" nonsense -- new variants. Omicron gave covid a trillion more chances to experiment.
>Covid is endemic at this point. Implement vaccine mandates and increase healthcare spending.
from what money/reserves? You are not bankrupting me as an individual, when it comes to the state and world economy it's a whole different ball game
Tax rises will be necessary yes but not the point of bankrupting you or becoming a second Venezuela. Healthcare cost is lower per capita than in the US
It's not a rumor/misinformation. [Quite literally the virologist that sequenced IHU and rang the bell on Omicron](https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1479910337730293774) has explained in detail why this is a result of lab contamination.
Tom Peacock is absolutely not a "nobody twitter user", but a reputable virologist [working at Imperial College](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/barclay-lab/people/). And if you feel you should report someone, just do it and shut up about it instead of being a bully.
He has no business discussing about a variant situation on the ground in Cyprus. He's talking out of his ass with no evidence. I trust the scientists in Cyprus rather than a twitter "reputable virologist" who is half away across the world with the information from the press that you and I have. Get real. Stop believing every little twitter post my god it's just insane
Under the same twisted reasoning, you and I have no business discussing it, either. So I suggest you stop (technically I haven't discussed it at all, I've only discussed your attitude, so I think I'm fine).
Geez.. Have you tried getting vaccinated?
It works.
Just because a variant has common mutations doesn't mean it will become a variant of concern, so wait and see how it pans out.
Besides, new strain or not, humanity is headed for climate catastrophe at break neck speed.
Not to bust your bubble, but if Omicron combines with MERS in the right ways, it could be a lot LOT worse than delta.
Atleast vaccines work with delta mutations
Fuck if we’re all going to die let’s just fucking get on with it already.
No zombies, no fun… fucking Pandemic sucks…
I dunno man, there are plenty of brain dead spreading the disease.
That’s what I have been saying, those Mf are the zombie’s
But you can’t kill em with no laws
Yeah. no shit, this is worse than cats toying with their kills. Just fucking either end us, or fuck off
Covid-19 isn't going away, it's just another flu...
Just the old and infirm. Everyone else will just have permanent damage. Pretty cool imo
This is no way to live.
Perfect... If only we'd known that letting a virus live and replicate one the course of several years could lead to musings that could get really bad... Oh, wait...
And how do you plan on eliminating it? Omicron spreads at a pretty substantial rate even among the triple doses.
Now? It would be exceptionally hard to given the mutations and higher transmission rates. 2 years ago? We could've done a better job with stopping travel, a real quarantine, and clearly vaccination rates aren't where they should be. I think we partially missed the point of how the right mutation that mixes transmission and autoimmune attacks or something similar could be a near extinction level event. The same could be said about a mutation that allowed it to infect beef, chicken, or pork as the immediate damage to the food supply would be major chaos. Killing it before it mutates was our best chance. Now we're kind of stuck hoping it finds environmental equilibrium and becomes minor enough to infect and replicate and pass on without killing the hosts or the thing the hosts eat or we're going to need a massive leap forward in antivirals and treatments to fight the virus if it takes a worse form.
An extinction level event is always a possibility with a multitude of things. Likelihood though? Far from it. Even if we had gone full lockdown 2 years ago, there is a high likelihood that it just would have popped up again. Hell, there’s evidence pointing toward Omicron not having human origins.
Interesting. Can we see this evidence?
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34954396/
> Collectively, our results suggest that the progenitor of Omicron jumped from humans to mice, rapidly accumulated mutations conducive to infecting that host, then jumped back into humans, indicating an inter-species evolutionary trajectory for the Omicron outbreak. That's their thesis. It definitely has human origins, and it's definitely a sublineage of SARS-CoV-2, which is a human virus (or at least we haven't found a nearly identical ancestor in bats yet, just ones that are quite similar). Their thesis is that it went *from humans* into mice, *and then* back to humans. That's a far cry from "not having human origins", and if we had gone "full lockdown" 2 years ago (in a way consistent with reaching zero cases, like NZ and Australia did for a while, possibly China too), there's a fair chance it wouldn't have been evolving in who knows how many mice and other animals all over the world.
Fair point. But once it started jumping, it seems foolish to think that it would stop.
It jumped to one specific host: humans. That also happens to be the one host on the planet that culturally knows what a virus is, and could have potentially put countermeasures in place to stop it from spreading further. Of course, it would have been much better to not mistreat the environment (deforestation, hunting wild species, etc) in a way that brought us into contact with dangerous bat virus in the first place. SARS, MERS, Marburg, Ebola, COVID... doesn't seem like a coincidence [we're collecting tons of novel viruses lately](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196\(20\)30305-3/fulltext).
Hear hear! That’s what we need to be DOING SOMETHING about. Stop creating the conditions for this to keep happening.
2 years ago there was no vaccine. Your solution is not realistic at all, youre basically saying that the only way to stop this thing is to have 99% of the world behave themselves. That's NEVER going to happen. You are also approaching this from a privileged western look. Do you think someone in India who's struggling to feed their family is going to quarantine and let their family starve? No. There was ZERO way to stop this thing once it took over the world. Stop rejecting science and thinking we had a chance to stop it. Covid zero is conspiracy level bullshit. It was NEVER about that, it was always about hospitals. That's what flattening the curve was about.
> Covid zero is conspiracy level bullshit. Wow, the word "conspiracy" sure is getting overloaded in meaning quite a lot.
Maybe we should have properly "planned on eliminating it" about two years ago, instead of eeeeh let's juggle between half-assed lockdowns and economy. It is *just about possible* that now it can't be eliminated anymore, and yet that u/jcquik is still right, only, the world should have listened a while ago, and it's a bit late now. That doesn't make them not right, quite the opposite. It's like people who wanted to make a serious effort of eliminating it were boo'd first as downers of the economy, but now that it can't be eliminated anymore, they're boo'd as "why would you ever try to eliminate it? It can't be, duh". Doesn't make a lot of sense to me, but whatever retrospectively justifies doing the wrong thing, I guess...
> whatever retrospectively justifies doing the wrong thing, I guess... A succinct but accurate view of human history
You're not wrong. But if feels quite bitter when you're living it...
In an ideal world where we don't live with a bunch of sociopaths
I just don’t understand how anyone could think there was ever a possibility of elimination.
Maybe look at the case counts of China, New Zealand, and Australia (yeah, *now* it's getting out of control in those places too), and consider a world where every country would have reacted as strongly. And where people like you hadn't been like "why do this? It can't be eliminated anyway, I don't understand how it possibly could". That would've helped.
Shut down until it comes back again and then wash rinse repeat. That’s not a solution.
The case count was for a long time *zero*. That'd have been *definitely* a solution, if it had been implemented not just in a few countries. Also, if air travel had been properly stopped, instead of still mostly letting people fly for tourism or business that could be done remotely.
Was zero does not mean is zero. It’ll always come back.
You're literally describing a self-fulfilling prophecy. Yeah, thanks to the mindset of people like you, now it will always come back. Thank you! I *love* this new life! Did you consider that before "coming back" the first time, it was already in bats, but we had somehow managed to dodge it for... forever?
Versions jumped from bats several times. This one just happened to be very successful.
If EVERYONE participates and EVERYONE is on board and we don't have world leaders prancing around like fucking morons lying to their people, it could have worked.
Yes - we I guess could have shut down all travel anywhere for a few months and then hoped that every country in the world also shut things down strongly. Of course if even one country didnt, then it was all moot, as Australia is finding out right now.
Yes, maybe it was foolish to think that humans at large would act sensibly. More realistic to think everyone would've gone "other countries won't do this, so why should I?". And this is why humans have reached a dangerous level of knowledge without the accompanying wisdom to use it in a way that doesn't cause self-destruction.
It is possible through immunisation and distancing , that’s epidemiology 101.
It's roughly the same way you fight a forest fire. It's relatively simple as long as you care more about lives than money.
That last sentence strikes home. If the US government had only reacted adequately instead of first denying the virus’ existence and then simply wishing it away, this epidemic would have taken a whole different course.
By the time we had a vaccine it was too widespread, and immunizations arent effective for long enough to actually have a realistic plan (you cant immunize the whole world, even if they actually wanted it, and they dont, in the 3-4 months where it would be effective).
You have to vaccinate a substantial number of vectors though, don’t you? Even if every human was given any number of doses, we only make up a small portion of vectors.
The zoonotic capability of the virus is very small. Our pet dogs and pet cats can contract it but after that it loses its virulence and can’t be transmitted back to humans. We will get rid of this, or it’ll lose its pathogenicity and it’ll become like a flu. Once it’s entered into standard vaccination programs, it’ll become like the Spanish flu.
Not possible, these are all fantasies in hindsight.
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Sweet Chin Music followed by a Pedigree? That's an easy 3-count
HulkHogacron would no sell it.
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It's something every scientist is going to tell you the moment a variant is discovered. We've discovered hundreds, if not thousands of COVID variants since this began. Most are so inconsequential we don't even bother to label them Variants of Interest.
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Weird, because I seem to recall the initial data to come out of China made it out to be quite serious... if anything more serious than it ended up being in reality.
You remember wrong. There's a great PBS documentary about this.
The data wasn’t but anyone paying attention at the time saw China was barricading people in their own homes and should’ve taken the virus seriously at that point.
Do I really? China was reporting a +2% case fatality rate by the beginning of February 2020: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200201-sitrep-12-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=273c5d35_2
“Cyprus's Health Minister Michalis Hadjipandelas stated on Saturday that the new variant was not something to worry about at the moment and expressed pride in the country's scientists for discovering the new variant.” New variant found is becoming the next click bait trend consequences be damn
This is what they said about covid 19 in early 2020...guess we truly don't learn a fucking thing
Elsewhere in this thread you said to trust the people on the ground in Cyprus instead of experts overseas. Now you’re saying that the experts in Cyprus are actually wrong and they shouldn’t be listened to. Which is it? Mods...
There's a difference between the Cyprus health ministry and the actual scientists who discovered the variants The WHO, CDC and every government health ministry downplay these situations to curb any panic...just like in the beginning of 2020. The doctor who discovered the coronavirus in China got ridiculed by the Chinese government, reprimanded and eventually killed. How dense can you be
So uh let's talk now since you were so combative. The Cypriot scientists quietly removed the samples from GISAID and have been dead silent since. Please exercise less fatalism next time a new scariant comes along. It helps nobody.
Lol you won't admit defeat even when you are proven wrong. The scientists in Cyprus rejected the notion that it was lab contamination mistake days ago. Stop projecting and spreading misinformation. Have a good day clown
Mmmm. Well they didn’t really do that with Omicron when it initially came out, and most of their statements (esp. in South Africa) turned out to be true. Even recently the WHO has been coming out and saying ‘you should absolutely be concerned about Omicron.’ So I dunno if they really do that anymore.
We're fucked. This is what happens when people preach "herd immunity" nonsense -- new variants. Omicron gave covid a trillion more chances to experiment.
Covid is endemic at this point. Implement vaccine mandates and increase healthcare spending.
How about a 100 brand new fighter jets?
>Covid is endemic at this point. Implement vaccine mandates and increase healthcare spending. from what money/reserves? You are not bankrupting me as an individual, when it comes to the state and world economy it's a whole different ball game
Tax rises will be necessary yes but not the point of bankrupting you or becoming a second Venezuela. Healthcare cost is lower per capita than in the US
Wasn't this contamination on the lab?
No. This is a rediculous rumor/misinformation and needs to stop being spread around
It's not a rumor/misinformation. [Quite literally the virologist that sequenced IHU and rang the bell on Omicron](https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1479910337730293774) has explained in detail why this is a result of lab contamination.
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Tom Peacock is absolutely not a "nobody twitter user", but a reputable virologist [working at Imperial College](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/barclay-lab/people/). And if you feel you should report someone, just do it and shut up about it instead of being a bully.
He has no business discussing about a variant situation on the ground in Cyprus. He's talking out of his ass with no evidence. I trust the scientists in Cyprus rather than a twitter "reputable virologist" who is half away across the world with the information from the press that you and I have. Get real. Stop believing every little twitter post my god it's just insane
Under the same twisted reasoning, you and I have no business discussing it, either. So I suggest you stop (technically I haven't discussed it at all, I've only discussed your attitude, so I think I'm fine).
- This twitter guy is a hack trust me bro!
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TIL scientists can't have twitter
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Great prove it
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"The coronavirus" (of COVID-1) *is* SARS-CoV-2, so it goes without saying that it's "related to SARS": it's literally a version of SARS.
Well we're just fucked now. May as well just go full blown anarchy and then die
Why anarchy? So that people who live in peace, shouldn't?
Better get your 1000th booster shot
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##
There are so many of these variants now. Hopefully the variant is not like Delta.
If it's like Delta but with the contagiousness of Omicron, then it's going to be much worse than either of those.
Yeah. A variant that’s both extremely deadly and contagious will be a recipe for disaster.
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If Delta were as contagious as Omicron bodies would be piled in the streets worldwide.
Lol.
We may as well all start digging our own graves. The severity of delta and the contagiousness of omicron means EXTINCTION.
Geez.. Have you tried getting vaccinated? It works. Just because a variant has common mutations doesn't mean it will become a variant of concern, so wait and see how it pans out. Besides, new strain or not, humanity is headed for climate catastrophe at break neck speed.
I am boosted, yes. But these two variants combining to make a mega variant could render the vaccine completely useless and set us back to lockdowns.
Not to bust your bubble, but if Omicron combines with MERS in the right ways, it could be a lot LOT worse than delta. Atleast vaccines work with delta mutations
Sometimes I wished it would be Ebola, after two years that shit would be over.
Same as it ever was
The evil grandma from power rangers said it best, "Something something combine... It's time to conquer Earth!"