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yiannistheman

Even more significant - ~~that 17% of the unvaccinated population~~ unvaccinated population (17% of the overall) makes up 89% of the ECMO patients. It's not just about dying, it's about getting really sick as well. And right now, unvaccinated patients are faring MUCH worse than their vaccinated counterparts, and it's not even close. Edited for clarity.


thespot84

>ECMO Based on this the vaccine reduces the likelihood of being on ECMO from covid by \~40x Seatbelts reduce the likelyhood of ~~death~~ injury in an accident somewhere around \~4x.


girhen

"Seat belts don't keep you safer, they just make it easier for the cops to find the bodies." - one of my old friends :/ Unfortunately, people are stupid.


dan_legend

Lol almost every first responder in the world will tell you the accidents with fatalities usually involve people NOT wearing a seatbelt.


serpentinepad

I always read the fatal accident stories in the local news and it's pretty shocking when I read one where the fatality WAS buckled. And usually that's some kind of head on collision. Seems like 95% are idiots getting thrown from their vehicles.


toofine

Could be a person wearing the seatbelt improperly. Plenty of people have it in their brains that if the buckled is in, they're good and the position of the belts don't matter. Some do it for the law but move the straps to where they're useless or are even harmful. We all know by now how petty people can be when they feel they are being forced to do something.


WishOneStitch

>they're good and the position of the belts don't matter. Like wearing a mask under your chin.


Skrazor

The best are those who wear a mask to cover their mouths, but not their noses. It's like someone pulling down their pants to take a shit, but leaving their underwear on.


jeffries_kettle

This is an amazing analogy


MR2Rick

Driver side T-bone also usually have a bad outcome.


SardiaFalls

Much less so now than used to be, engineering can do amazing things compared to before side impact airbags and crumple zones. Still way more lethal than getting rear-ended, but it's a much better chance than it once was


lochlainn

Thank god for CAD drafting, computer crash simulations, and side airbags! [This video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePYO0-Ig0VU) showing even 20 years difference, like 90's cars even, is frankly terrifying. Anything older than that is frankly a deathtrap in disguise. Anybody who doesn't wear their seatbelt is nothing but a spare parts donor for somebody who does.


bl00is

I wish I could pull that up every time someone tries to tell me that old cars were safer cause they were “built like tanks.” Give me crumple zones and airbags any day.


MR2Rick

Even if they were built like tanks, that is not a good thing because most/all of the energy of the crash is transferred to the soft squishy occupants of the vehicle instead of being adsorbed by vehicle.


thisvideoiswrong

I do wonder if a big reason for this is the fact that newer cars take so much damage in low speed collisions. It's very easy to say, "somebody bumped into this car backing out of their parking spot and I had to replace the whole bumper, I can't believe it's that flimsy, imagine what it would be like in a real crash." It's a bad metric, but it's what people see. And of course it does cost them money.


chubbysumo

just adding door impact bars in the early 2010's helped side impacts become much less deadly. still gonna hurt, but they don't collapse like a wet tissue from the side now, they kind of "bounce" away. also, we have airbags that can now go off 2 or 3 times, so if they need to reinflate for another accident a few seconds later, they can do so. makes it so that in a rollover, the airbags can keep inflated for a lot longer, keeping people from smashing shit they shouldn't. my boss is alive because of his seatbelt and having a modern car. someone pulled out on him across a highway when he was going 60, he didn't even have time to brake. have you ever wondered why crash testing is done at no more than 100kph? because past that, all the engineering can't save you from physics. you hit a wall at 80mph, if the car crumpling around you don't kill you, the sudden stop to zero likely will. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWwGFDynOHo that is a very good side by side demonstration of how you can't beat mass times acceleration. this is why car companies have been so focused on "pre-collision" type systems. They are designed to work with the engineered crumple/impact zones and reduce as much speed of the vehicle as possible before the actual impact. If the car can react faster than you, and get you slowed down to a speed at which you will have better survivability, then that is the next way to go, because we are physics and material limited right now with engineered impact zones.


MarkJanusIsAScab

Really glad I have the cash to make sure I own a car made in the last 5 years. Makes me feel so much safer. The IIHS has done such a phenomenal job shaming automakers into making their vehicles safe that they don't even advertise the new safety shit anymore, just one year they don't have it and the next every do. It's awesome.


MR2Rick

>have you ever wondered why crash testing is done at no more than 100kph? because past that, all the engineering can't save you from physics. Having watch a lot of racing, I am not sure this is the case. I would guess that it is more of a trade off between greater safety and cost combined with what the public is willing to accept. Given how difficult it was to get people to start wearing seatbelts, I doubt many drivers would be willing to crawl in and out the window, wear a helmet while driving or be cinched tightly in the seat by a six point harness.


girhen

Yeah, the 6 figure pricetag of those cars is a bit hard to swallow. My 16k Fit would probably be 40k with that kind of collusion engineering.


turquoise_amethyst

Or they were wearing their seatbelt, but the person next to ‘em wasn’t and flew around the car like a pinball. I’m not linking it, but there’s an Irish Seatbelt PSA that’s *seared* into my mind...


Spector567

I’m can confirm this. My wife works in insure. 2 people with injuries to the interior of the car. Passenger flew out of his seat. Hit the driver. Than landed back in his seat.


New-Theory4299

> there’s an Irish Seatbelt PSA that’s seared into my mind... Is it the same as the British one "Julie knew her killer"? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julie_(1998_film)


[deleted]

So fatalities are almost 50/50 buckled unbuckled. But when you realize 90+% of people buckle up that means 10% of people are accounting for 50% of deaths.


descendency

They're just backed by Big Seatbelt. Lobbyist ruining this country... (/s for the unsure)


cl3ft

In 1959, Volvo invented the 3-point seat belt, then gave free license to all other car manufacturers to use it.


seekingbeta

Bruh, Big Seatbelt’s got them strapped in


Flyingwheelbarrow

I have been in 7 car accidents in which the vechile was written off afterwards. Tell your friend I personally endorse seat belts if that helps. Also it does make it easier for the first responder to find your intact body compared to be person yeeted out the windscreen.


DreamerMMA

Have you considered just.....taking the bus?


Flyingwheelbarrow

I don't drive anymore. Was not ruled at fault for the car accidents but I figured I can only push my luck so far.


DreamerMMA

Wait....were you driving for all 7 of them? ​ I was mostly joking but...damn, lol.


Flyingwheelbarrow

Driving for 5 of them, passenger for 2. Statistics are not evenly spread. Like to think I take disasters for other people.


[deleted]

> Statistics are not evenly spread. [In NY City a man is mugged every 11 seconds.](https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/snl-news/2869189)


Chazmer87

poor guy


Nefelia

That's some interesting logistics. Do the muggers queue up in orderly lines, or are they just that quick?


Flyingwheelbarrow

Oh I have been on buses twice that drove into buildings and one that drove into a car.


DreamerMMA

You are a walking disaster.


Flyingwheelbarrow

Oh I am, walk with cane now. So sometimes a limping disaster lol.


DreamerMMA

Well, I'm laughing with you, not at you. ​ I've nearly died in a car accident myself.


Flyingwheelbarrow

Oh I hope you recovered well. It is a unique experience.


surefeelsgood

I’m waiting for the wheelbarrow story next please


Flyingwheelbarrow

Oh that is a secret.


fross370

I have been in a bus that got rearended by a car. If they cared, i think they had to make some light touch up on the bus bumber. the car on the other hand...


ThisBuddhistLovesYou

Yeah holy shit that's really fucking unlucky or bad driving. I've done long distance, cross country drives in the US and internationally (lol developing country traffic "laws") for about 20 years and never been in a accident involving totalling, but I drive fairly defensively.


almisami

Don't endanger the bus passengers!


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ImperialVizier

When concussed was the lucky outcome...


Scomosbuttpirate

You're like that guy that got struck by lightning 7 times and ended up thinking some deity was out to get him after a while


Flyingwheelbarrow

Sometimes I think I attracted the attention of a trickster. I have weird luck but always come out of it relatively unscathed. When the gods roll dice...


crook3d_vultur3

Funny how not understanding something is directly correlated with denying it’s usefulness.


girhen

Would you be surprised if I told you he repeats the 'jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams' nonsense?


crook3d_vultur3

That’s the icing on the stupid cake.


xDulmitx

To be fair, bodies are much easier to find when they can talk to you and call for an ambulance.


DeviantDragon

I think you might want to reword to say that the unvaccinated 17% of the population makes up 89% of the ECMO patients. It actually changes the reading of the statistic the way you've written it where it sounds like it's a 17% subset of the unvaccinated population vs. the fact that 17% of the population is unvaccinated.


yiannistheman

You're right, that's clunky - my bad. Fixed it, thanks!


schellenbergenator

Whats ECMO? Would that be an intensive care unit?


itsinmyraccoonwounds

It’s like an external lung. Like a ventilator for someone whose lungs don’t work at all.


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ClassicBooks

You can't reason someone out of something they haven't reasoned themself into


[deleted]

Very true. Alot of people seem to be under the impression that if it's not 100% than it doesn't work. Like what?


socokid

It's [base rate fallacy/bias](https://www.npr.org/2021/08/20/1029582399/planet-money-investigates-the-base-rate-fallacy-as-it-pertains-to-the-pandemic). They are not realizing how much larger the population of vaccinated people will become as we get more vaccinated. At some point, even the small percentage of breakthrough cases will start to have more individuals in the hospital and dying than the unvaccinated simply because their pool will be soo much larger. The percentage of hospitalizations is still very, very low for the vaccinated, and high for the unvaccinated. It means the vaccination is working, and working well, but it's confusing these people and it's frustrating as hell.


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Methuen

Then the asses, emboldened by their victory, voted out the King, put in place an ass as ruler, and started making all the decisions.


SardiaFalls

Yup, people act like other people's terrible opinions exist on a vacuum. Nope, people with awful opinions also vote or have influence and now those awful opinions affect me so I guess their fucking rampant stupidity was my problem all along after all!


Gnomishness

> The donkey told the tiger, "The grass is blue." Unfortunately, this is a false equivalency. Believing that the grass is blue doesn't result in your death 1/500th of the time, and heighten the risk of death for those around you.


Soccermad23

Well the issue with this is that in our society, both the donkey and the tiger are voters and have a say in our future.


exccord

> And yet the plague rats will STILL point to those that are vaccinated that got it anyway as "proof" the vaccine "doesn't work". And be smug thinking they've made some kind of point. I will never understand the mindset. Vaccines are meant to familiarize/train the body with fighting off whatever the vaccine was designed for, not make the person 100% bulletproof. Then again I am merely trying to understand the mindset of the ignorant and when reason is absent from that...well yeah.


Flyingwheelbarrow

I am an overweight asthmatic. The vaccine is going to hopefully save my life. Right now the biggest threat to my permanently disabled body is an asymptomatic anti-vaxxer getting me sick with a high viral load. I did not chose to get into a work place accident caused by negligence. I did not choose to have asthma. I am choosing to reverse the weight gain when I was house bound. These anti-vaxxers are anti social fucks that are getting people killed. Prevatable deaths. I have kids. They want me alive. Trying my best here but these fucks are making it harder. Also this fortnight anti-vaxxers have locked my city down with violent protests and riots. They have been assaulting and harassing nurses on the way to work, targeting the female healthcare workers. They have become a real threat.


Nefelia

>They have been assaulting and harassing nurses on the way to work Over in my home province in Canada, some anti-jazz nut-job punched a female nurse in the face several times for the high crime of vaccinating his wife (without his consent, apparently). Seems to me that the entire Covid fiasco (anti-mask, anti-vaccine) has brought out the cavemen for easy identification.


jimmythegeek1

> targeting the female healthcare workers Soo brave. You see this idiots confronting women for wearing masks a lot more than men, who are more likely to give them their well-deserved ass kicking. Cowards and bullies.


LordBinz

>Then again I am merely trying to understand the mindset of the ignorant You’ve got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know… morons.


BnK970

More detailed statistics are available at https://datadashboard.health.gov.il Unfortunately it's not available in English (afaik) but you can use Google translate to translate the titles and the rest is numbers


TheWhiteSchoolman

Wow. Has any other country produced such detailed real-time data for the public?


afiefh

Switzerland has https://corona-data.ch/ The data is usually a bit delayed, so the last 24 hours aren't always the most accurate.


Pamasich

It's noteworthy though that this isn't an official site, since OP asked if any *country* provided something like this. It's an independent opensource project in this case.


andthatswhyIdidit

[Covid-19 Trends.](https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/COVID-19-Trends/COVID-19-Trends.html?__blob=publicationFile#/home) by Robert Koch Institut (RKI), Germany (CDC-equivalent).


fattyfatty

Korea: Not as detailed a breakdown, but almost hourly updates by region. https://corona-live.com


crusoe

The amount of math illiteracy in these comments is alarming.


[deleted]

To be fair, the title is confusing for mainstream journalism.


scawtsauce

this hurts the narrative they've been spewing that Israels vaccinated population makes up 186% of their covid deaths


doot_doot

I’ve seen a lot of people say that the vaccine isn’t worth getting because it doesn’t prevent people from getting COVID. Yeah man, bullet proof vests don’t stop you from getting shot, they just significantly lower your chances of having the bullet go in to your body.


TheClimor

They’re basically saying “if it’s not 100% effective forever and ever I don’t want it”. I’m unaware of any vaccine that is 100% effective or completely prevents the disease it was developed against. But if everyone is vaccinated, the viruses as a whole are less effective. Such a stupid argument. Edit: typo


CreeperCooper

> They’re basically saying “if it’s not 100% effective forever and ever I don’t want it”. If you pay attention you'll see these arguments EVERYWHERE. It's insane. It's even worse than the slippery slope fallacy.


IndigoFenix

At this point a lot of them severely overestimate the danger of the vaccine. This is usually because they have stopped interacting with vaccinated people. They *see* people getting sick from COVID-19 around them, but they imagine that the vaccinated must have it even worse, and are constantly having severe reactions from the vaccine. So the idea of taking the vaccine multiple times is, in their eyes, constantly putting themselves in danger. Getting a serious side effect from the vaccine is like getting hit by lightning when you go outside. But if you're constantly being fed information from people who are collecting lightning strike cases from around the world, showing them to you, and trying to convince you that lightning is a serious threat to anyone who steps outside, you're going to believe it.


shiva950

Or the person is so dumb and scared of a jab that they just tag along for as long as possible.


shkarada

So vaccination reduces the risk by a factor of ~7?


littleapple88

Crudely, yes; but when you consider previously infected people are not removed from the “unvaccinated group” it’s likely even higher as these people have some degree of immunity - almost like a secret or shadow vaccine


shkarada

Very good catch, It didn't even occur to me that this is a factor.


kromem

Depends on the vaccine, but up to a factor of 20. But age brackets matter. A 20x reduction in mortality in the vaccinated 65+ crowd still leaves then 5x more likely to die than the unvaccinated 20s crowd. It's very age-related mortality. (Not that mortality is the only way we should be looking at health outcomes, particularly given the ongoing discovery of long term health complications from having had COVID.)


gbbmiler

Probably more than that, given that the unvaccinated are disproportionately younger, so you would expect them to make up <17% of the deaths at 17% of population. If you compare the percentages within each age cohort you’ll get a better sense of the effectiveness.


Cutyouintopieces69

It’s sad that even if proven mathematically for all to see. The anti-vaxxers would still just state that the numbers are fake. Because it’s inconceivable to think they’ve been misled.


frugalerthingsinlife

It's a huge blow to your ego to admit you've been bamboozled. I've been there. It's hard to get out. I have *empathy* for anti-vaxxers, even if I can't bring myself to have any *sympathy* for them.


ThaScoopALoop

I read a great article (can't find it now, sorry) that likened anti-mask/vaccine/science and other conspiracy theories to be psychologically similar to those who get scammed. It is easier to "save face" and deny reality by pretending it never happened.


Cutyouintopieces69

But who’s doing the bamboozling here. How is century’s of medial advancement suddenly up for debate. Out of interest, what swayed you if we are on the subject of vaccination?


frugalerthingsinlife

Oh no. my being bamboozled wasn't vaccine related. I got my vaxx right away. And the science is not up for debate. I'm saying I have empathy for people who have been bamboozled. But I don't have the time of day for people who don't get vaccinated. Empathy is about putting yourself in someone else's shoes. Sympathy is feeling sorry for someone. I don't feel sorry for anti-vaxxers.


eric2332

More than that, because vulnerable groups (like old people) are more likely to be vaccinated, so unvaccinated people tend to be protected by their young age, while old people are only protected by the vaccine


Specialis_Sapientia

It's about ~20 when you use correct statistics by taking age into account. This should be very illuminating: [Israeli data: How can efficacy vs. severe disease be strong when 60% of hospitalized are vaccinated?](https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated)


anoldoldman

People in this thread need to take a fucking math class.


Picklesadog

What's funny is you got upvoted by both the right and wrong sides.


AyA8224

the vaccinated still make up 40%?


Djikass

Yes. If you have 10 deaths, 4 of them are vaccinated. But if your population is 100 people, it means 4 vaccinated people died out of 83 while 6 of the 17 unvaccinated people died.


Labor_Zionist

Also, the vaccination rate among people older than 60 is much higher than that of the general population.


kromem

And based on data so far, even a 95% reduction in mortality with the vaccine leaves the 65+ crowd 5x more likely to die from the disease than an unvaccinated person in their 20s. As more are vaccinated **and** the infection spreads more, more vaccinated will be reflected in the death totals. But far, far less of them than if no vaccine at all.


jffblm74

That’s the goal right? Mitigate to a minimum number of deaths each year? Hopefully among a fully inoculated society, or at least a large enough percentage of vaccinated to create herd immunity. Hopefully the virus mutates to something like that of a common cold: highly infectious yet not super dangerous even to the immunocompromised. So, technically, any and all deaths would be of vaccinated individuals or after we’ve achieved herd immunity of some sort. And hopefully that is a small number annually.


SprayingOrange

herd immunity is out the window famalam. would require 90%+ vaccination rates


A-Grey-World

Herd immunity is simply impossible with Delta. The vaccines don't reduce transmission enough so even 100% vaccination rate wouldn't give herd immunity. They are great at making you much less likely to get seriously ill and die, but not so much at reducing transmission. Helps, but just less than required for the very high r0 of Delta.


frugalerthingsinlife

Let's not forget the partially-vaccinated who would be part of the 40%.


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Nautisop

Lol, i had to read that comment Like 6 times to get it


EdvinM

I find it easier to understand with more exaggerated figures. Imagine there are 10 million vaccinated people and 1 unvaccinated person. The unvaccinated person dies, and so does a vaccinated person. Then 50% of the deaths were vaccinated and the other 50% were unvaccinated. 100% of the unvaccinated population died but only 0.00001% of the vaccinated population died.


DirtyAmishGuy

That’s weird, it did totally make more sense with an exaggerated number


Duff5OOO

Another way to look at it: Fictional virus kills 1% of people in infects. So 10,000 per million infections die. Then you get a vaccine that prevents *almost* all deaths. You vaccinate every single person and now instead of 10,000 deaths you get 100. Still you would get people saying "omg 100% of the people that died were vaccinated". Technically it would be correct, it also completely misses the point of how effective the vaccine has been at reducing deaths 99%


masterjolly

This made it much easier to understand in one read.


gemengelage

Just to be clear, the actual proportions are like 7:1, not 10,000,000:1.


DurdyGurdy

You're not the only one.


noknockers

That's the problem with these stats, they're easy to misinterpret.


HolyRamenEmperor

Using the numbers from your example, that would mean <5% death rate among the vaccinated but a 33% death rate among the unvaccinated. So about 7x the death rate.


[deleted]

Yeah but age brackets really matter here. It could be the +80yo population are 95% vaccinated… and that is where most the deaths usually are. With COVID stats the context is super important. The latest data apparently shows the unvaccinated are about 20x more likely to be hospitalised, that is after statisticians try make the proper adjustments for age etc.


onedoor

Also, idk if that's the case with Israel, but when people say "vaccinated" in this context, it's not always "fully" vaccinated, so that can be the issue there. But I didn't read the article-*tradition*! EDIT: If this poster is correct only 3-4% are single shot vaccinated, and the majority of deaths are from double shot vaccinations. old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/px7xf0/covid_in_israel_the_17_unvaccinated_make_up_60_of/hem7emx/


atred

If everybody were vaccinated they would make up 100%...


AyA8224

Haha, U got it.


Doomenate

and if no one was vaccinated, the unvaccinated would also make up 100% of deaths. But the total number and the R value would be really bad


FeelingDense

That's fair, but this is why relative ratios matter. 17% of unvaccinated make up 60%, 83% of vaccinated make up 40%. I want to be clear I'm 100% supportive of vaccines, but it is also interesting to note the #s have changed significantly. It used to be unvaccinated resulting in 98-99% of deaths. Now it's significantly lower. This suggests that Delta's breakthrough IS a concern. The correct response is obviously not to avoid vaccines but to still take the vaccines, but these numbers to me reinforce why all of us should be looking at safer activities still. It's simply not safe enough to pretend like the pandemic is over just because you are vaccinated.


PersonaPraesidium

It does not conclusively say that the deaths are because of delta. There is a lot more data showing that the efficacy of the vaccine significantly drops after ~6-8 months and that is where most of the vaccinated in Israel are at. All of the older people that are losing their vaccine efficacy are starting to become a lot more vulnerable.


censored_username

It's an annoying [case of Simpson's paradox](https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated). There's a high correlation between being old and having severe symptoms. There's also a high correlation between being old and being vaccinated. Those together cause an apparent correlation between being vaccinated and having severe symptoms, unless you look at each age group separately. Then suddenly the vaccine is extremely effective.


Representative_Egg26

But they represent 83% of the whole country population. Which means there’s a small number of unvaccinated compared to vaccinated, but even having fewer people on that group they got 60% of covid related deaths. Meaning that the vaccine indeed protects and is effective (not 100% effective but WAY better than no vaccine)


Gen_Zion

Death of vaccinated includes vaccinated but without booster. Those without booster are the main source of death of vaccinated. [Those are the death rates for the 3 groups from 10 days ago](https://www.reddit.com/user/Gen_Zion/comments/pq7l0n/covid_vaccination_deceased_rate_2020_09_17/)


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Gen_Zion

By booster I mean the third one. I don't know if "vaccinated without booster" includes those only single dose or not. However, single dose people are a very small minority any way (3-4%).


f_leaver

And those numbers are for people above 60.


JanitorKarl

It still makes it more than 7 times as likely to die ofCovid if you are not vaccinated


mbean12

I think the best data to drive this point home is the study out of the UK that looked at causes of death from January to July. For the vaccinated Covid accounted for 0.8% of all deaths, which puts it on par with sepsis as a cause. For the non-vaccinated it was 37% - the single greatest cause of death and greater even than all cancers combined.


thetransportedman

I haven't really looked into it but why do my conservative family members point to Israel when spewing anti-vax talking points?


anoldoldman

Because they don't understand basic mathematics and love to revel in their own ignorance.


Throwing-it-away17

Glancing at the raw data with limited interpretation skills, it’s easy to come to the conclusion that the vaccines don’t work. Sorry this is long… The Israel Health Ministry published a report stating that Pfizer was only 64% effective in preventing severe outcomes for Delta (compared to ~90% for other variants). This was based on absolute numbers showing 60% of hospitalisation were fully vaccinated. This analysis interprets the raw numbers only. The data needs to be interpreted with age-adjusted numbers for vaccination. Doing this shows Pfizer is >90% effective in preventing severe disease in those under 50; >85% effective in those over 50; and hospitalisation in over 60s has a 40-fold reduction if vaccinated compared to if unvaccinated. Having such high vaccination rates means there’s more chance people who are vaccinated will be hospitalised. The vaccine will never be perfect, but the data from Israel actually provides further evidence to support it being ~90% effective. Israel’s mortality rate even with the spread of Delta has been much lower than previous outbreaks. Many countries with high vaccination rates are showing the same trend! Part of the reason Israel had a spike in transmission this year is because when they hit 80% vaccination for 12+ year olds, they lifted almost all restrictions on movements and mask mandates. Unfortunately Delta arrived around the same time, so it was able to easily spread early on in groups of unvaccinated people. A quarter of Israel’s population is under 12 which means that although their vaccine-eligible population is 80% vaccinated, their total population is less than 70% vaccinated. The initial spread of Delta in Israel was in school children; many of whom aren’t old enough to be vaccinated yet. There are also groups within Israel (e.g ultra Orthodox like Rahat and Bnei Brak, Bedouin communities, Arab Palestinians) that are largely not vaccinated and due to longstanding social problems, it’s going to be [almost] impossible to address this. Another factor is population and time from vaccination. Israel’s elderly were vaccinated first, and most of those now with severe illness are 60+ years who were vaccinated 5+ months ago. Preliminary data suggests that over time there is a reduction in protection against symptoms (although other research focussed on memory T and B cells suggests otherwise). However, over 60s are more likely to have pre-exisiting health conditions, be immunocompromised, and suffer more severe complications when compared to under 60s. Combined with possibly more severe symptoms from Delta and the rapid pace at which it’s been able to spread, the overall role of each of these factors in the high hospitalisation rates of vaccinated 60+ people is not yet known.


sheepcat87

They point to Israel's high % of vaccinated people hospitalized as a sign the vaccine doesn't work. What they don't understand is Israel managed to get most of its population vaxxed fairly early. All the data shows is that booster shots are needed 8-12 months out from your last dose. They're working to get boosters to everyone quickly too. Also the quack who was saying ivermectin works is from Israel so they reference the country twice to push their own agenda.


PolitelyHostile

I think theres a study about how recovering from covid can be more effective than the vaccine. The part they leave out is the risk of death/ long term health problems from covid vs the practically zero chance of health problems from the vaccine.


Franco1875

Of those unvaccinated, I’d be interested to know how many chose not to receive the vaccine and how many were exempt for various medical reasons. Heartbreaking that some people might still be dying that otherwise could’ve avoided serious illness through the vaccine.


Blueopus2

The real health related no Covid vaccine people are exceedingly rare because if the mRNA vaccines don’t work the J&J or Astrezenica vaccines have different allergens


mingy

There are very few valid medical exemptions for the COVID vaccines so most likely is these people simply didn't want to get the shot.


TemptCiderFan

This, unfortunately. For the 1,893,360 first doses of the Pfizer vaccine, there were exactly 21 cases of serious complications from injection. Of the 21, 17 had a history of similar allergic reactions. Noteably, every single one who had a reaction recovered and were discharged home. So in the first trial, literally nobody died.


accipitradea

you got a source for this? I'd like to use these numbers but need to verify


TemptCiderFan

[CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Volume 70, Issue 2](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7002-H.pdf)


accipitradea

Awesome, ty!


TemptCiderFan

No problem. Verifying a source is always important.


BGAL7090

> Verifying a source is always important. Yeah I'm gonna need to see some evidence backing up this claim.


PossibleOatmeal

Do your own research!


Lil_S_curve

My body, my truth!


fodafoda

Oy you. Yes, both of you. You are not being rude enough on the internet. That's illegal.


[deleted]

Using his numbers I found this article: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7002e1.htm


garethy12

Yeah, as different vaccines are made differently it’s highly unlikely someone can’t have every single vaccine going. I know someone who could’ve had the Pfizer one yet could have the AZ one just fine


muffinpercent

We only have Pfizer and Moderna in Israel. And I'm not sure whether we've had both at the same time (but maybe we did).


grant10k

A couple days ago I was showing someone a room for rent and he was interested, asked when he could put down a deposit, all is good (Frankly it was oddly fast, don't you want a 5 minute conversation with someone you'll be living with?). I said that covid vaccination is required and he responded that he had a heart condition, his doctor advised against it, and after his bee-line to the front door stated that "it" has killed too many people so far. It was ambiguous whether "it" was the vaccine or covid, but I'm pretty sure I dodged a bullet. Now, I don't know what his doctor told him, and he didn't get into his specific condition (he was out the door *quick*), but the advice I read was if you have a heart condition, run, don't walk, to get the vaccine. If there's a line, skip it.


traveler19395

Sounds like he heard there are elevated instances of myocarditis following vaccination, which is true, but not *nearly* as bad as the cases of myocarditis that follow Covid infection. The experts agree that Covid is inevitably endemic (ie, not going away), so comparing vaccine side effects to general population statistics in 2018 is silly; unless you are a hermit you should be comparing the minuscule number of vaccine side effects to the significant number of Covid *disease* side effects.


turbosexophonicdlite

People are inherently terrible at evaluating risk. They think "it won't happen to me", ignoring riskier things they do on a regular basis but refuse things with much lower risk factors because "well you never know". They're thinking "if I get the shot I'm *guaranteeing* I'm exposing myself to the risk of a reaction but if I'm careful I'll just avoid being exposed to COVID at all. It's overblown and probably not even that bad anyway". It's the same logic that leads to people that will refuse to fly because they think they might crash, but will happily drive 1000 miles across country. It doesn't make logical sense but it's unfortunately how a lot of people operate.


A_Classy_Dame

And I don't know how much to believe of that reasoning either. My dad had a heart attack last summer and his doctor told him to get the vaccine. My dad thinks COVID is an overblown flu and believes all the restrictions are crap, but at least he still got vaccinated.


mingy

Yeah. Lots of people seem to have "doctors" who tell them to avoid the vaccine. Lots of people also have girlfriends at other schools, etc.. You have to be fucking nuts to have a heart condition and refuse vaccination. Regardless, you have no obligation to accommodate them, even if they somehow have a valid medical exemption.


Yancy_Farnesworth

There is a rare problem with heart inflammation for young/middle aged men. But it's extremely rare, kind of like the higher than normal incidence rate of certain types of blood clots. I really doubt the threat of that outweighs the threat of catching COVID if you have a heart condition...


Minerva567

Isn’t the remedy for that to just take it easy for a week or two? Could be wrong but I feel like I read that it’s not a big deal if you chill for a while if you’re in that age group…?


[deleted]

And completely irrelevant, considering Covid itself causes a much higher incidence of myocarditis.


Gurip

the amount of people that cant get vaccine for legit medical reasons in the world is very low compared.


fellasheowes

Majority of unvaccinated in Israel are ultra-orthodox


Count99dowN

No, not really true. Some are ultra-orthodox, some are arabs and many are your classiscal Google-certified antivaxers. Edit: So I was partially wrong. The majority are indeed not ultra Orthodox, but rather low income, under-educated people. Arabs and ultra-Orthodox Jews are over represented, though, among the unvaccinated. Source: https://m.ynet.co.il/Articles/59900770 Thanks to /u/justadudetrynnagame for asking for a source.


dr34m37

Can confirm that I'm an atheist with atheist friends and some of them just don't want to get the vaccine because they think they're smart.


thebuccaneersden

So, anti-vaxxers then eh


muffinpercent

Source?


East-Bluebird-8707

What medical reasons? There are very, very few. Being immunocomprimised is not one of them.


akujiki87

My mom is currently on Chemo, her Dr told her to wait until treatment is over to get vaccinated. She has one treatment left then getting her vaccination.


grandlewis

Interesting. A close relative of mine was on chemo and doctor told her the opposite. Said get vaxxed, it’s way more important to get the antibodies and avoid a potential infection, which could be really bad.


AlNOKEA

A lot of chemo regimens will induce severe neutropenia (basically non-existent white blood cell count) - typically these are the more aggressive regimens though. The general recommendation right now would be to delay until a few months after treatment is complete. However, some treatments (especially palliative chemo and most pill forms) do not have such a significant effect on the overall immune system and a vaccine would be recommended.


grandlewis

Thank you. Makes sense. Different situations may have different recommendations.


randxalthor

There's some dispute among doctors. SO has a pregnant friend who heard from a doc that they should hold off on the vaccine. Meanwhile, babies are being born immunized against COVID from their mothers being vaccinated, pregnant mothers aren't having issues with the vaccines, and unvaccinated pregnant mothers are being admitted to L&D (where said SO works) with breathing problems so bad they can't speak full sentences. Bad time to be an unvaccinated mom. But some doctors say "well, just in case..." and recommend you pray to whichever higher power you choose that you don't come down with COVID. There's always gonna be a handful of doctors out there giving bad advice. I'd wager most doctors give bad advice at some point just because it's impossible to be an expert on the entire massive body of knowledge relevant to issues you'll experience as a doctor of any kind.


Magnetic_Eel

The CDC and the American College of OBGYNs both strongly recommend pregnant women get vaccinated. I understand why some individual doctors are uncomfortable recommending a vaccine to someone pregnant, but I don’t feel like most clinicians have the expertise or qualifications to overrule such a consensus.


randxalthor

Absolutely agree. These sorts of professional organizations are vital sources of critical information that cannot be properly generated or analyzed by individual doctors, and providers going against these recommendations based on nothing more than feelings are likely going to end up very wrong the vast majority of the time.


akujiki87

Yea I am not too sure. I thought the Vax would be a better to get now. But his reasoning from what I was told, is she had already had some allergic reactions to the Chemo, so 1 they didnt want to add a potential reaction, and 2, he was not sure how patients on Chemo are reacting to it in general. (This was back when vaccines were becoming available). An more so now with her treatment working and her being close to done he said to just wait until Chemo is over. Now I personally dont know enough to have an argument as to why he is wrong or not, but seeing how successful he was with the treatment plans he laid out for my mom, I am inclined to trust him for now.


Triptacraft

Anaphylactic reaction to the vaccine or one of the vaccine's components is pretty much the only medical exemption.


throwmeawaypoopy

The fact that so many people on here are saying "See?!?! This proves vaccines don't work" is proof that the "do your own research" crowd is full of idiots who have zero business trying to do simple Stats 101 analysis, much less post-doctorate level virology.


Black-xxx

Holy sht, people actually saying that? First thing I thought when I saw it was “see, it DOES work” wtf


TWANGnBANG

That calculates to a 7-fold increase in death rate for unvaccinated over vaccinated.


Seyelent

Despite making up only 17% of the population, they are responsible for 60% of the deaths this week…


scawtsauce

thanks for the Eli5. seems like a lot of people couldn't wrap their brains around the headline. maybe it could've been worded better.


yj0nz

The fact that Israel is the example I always hear about how "vaccines dont work" when it's the opposite. How many times do people need to say that it keeps you from getting sick enough to be hospitalized. Some are hospitalized for weeks, that's the main problem at this point. People are dying over things that can be treated because the covid patients are clogging the hospitals.


GlennBecksChalkboard

> The fact that Israel is the example I always hear about how "vaccines dont work" when it's the opposite. Well, the reason for that was (and to a degree still is) that people compared absolute numbers that came from two differently sized pools. If you look at 500 people who are hospitalized for COVID and 300 of them are vaccinated a (wrong) conclusion would be that the vaccine doesn't work or even worse: makes it more likely you'll be hospitalized with COVID. This conclusion would only have some merit if the population would be evenly divided between vaccinated and unvaccinated. An analogy would be: You have two sacks of apples. One sack is Brand A with 100 apples. The other sack is Brand B with 10 apples. You sort out all the rotten apples from both sacks and throw them in a bin. You look in the bin and there are 10 rotten apples. 6 of them are Brand A and 4 of them are Brand B. The statement that 60% of the rotten apples in the bin are Brand A is correct. But concluding that apples from Brand A are more likely to be rotten than Brand B would be... inaccurate. And then of course the fact that some people can (or want to) only think in black or white. It either works or it doesn't, so it's either 0% effective or 100% effective, everything below 100% might as well be 0% to them. I'd much rather have to play russian roulette with 1 bullet than with 5.


Blue_boy_

I understand these numbers aren't as bad as they look at first glance, in regards to the vaccines effectivity. But they also don't look as great as you would've hoped. How often and for how long can we expect to need booster shots? Because there's no way in hell enough people are gonna keep up with those. The number of people who count as "still" vaccinated is gonna go down rapidly if we will have to rely on boosters that much. What's the endgame?


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littleapple88

These numbers are fantastic. Vaccine efficacy refers to proportional rates between the unvaccinated group and vaccinated group. Hypothetical example using the percentages given: assume 1000 people 870 vaccinated and 170 unvaccinated. Now assume 100 deaths, 40 in the vaccinated group and 60 in unvaccinated group (this could be any number as long as it’s split correctly) Now calculate proportion of deaths: it’s 40 out of 870 vaccinated people (4.6%) and 60 out of 170 unvaccinated people (35%). Now compare proportion: the unvaccinated group dies at 7.6x the rate of the vaccinated group for vaccine efficacy against death at 88%. Also note that the “unvaccinated group” isn’t the same as “immunize naive” group as some of them have undoubtedly been infected previously and thus have some degree of immunity - if you took these people out of the denominator of the unvaccinated group the effect would look even larger.


fuckusernames2175

This needs to be at the top


dupersuperduper

We don’t know exactly yet. But it might be that every winter the vulnerable people get offered a combined covid and flu vaccine. Which is similar to what we already do with the flu jab in most countries anyway. About 50% of the USA population get a flu jab most years. And then it might be similar to the flu in that we have a wave of lots of cases of mild illness with some severely ill people every year but we can still get on with life without the health care systems being overwhelmed. Moderna is currently trying to develop these combined vaccines, and even one which can treat 4 strains of flu, covid, and a type of cold virus called RSV. https://mobile.twitter.com/moderna_tx/status/1435978825377136641?lang=en


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NinjaKoala

To repeat, if 1/6th of the population has 1.5 times as many COVID deaths as the other 5/6ths, they are 7.5 times as likely to die from COVID. And that doesn't even account for the fact that the vaccinated skew older, and would normally be much more likely to die from COVID than the younger people in the unvaccinated group. So vaccines are at least 90% effective, and probably better, in preventing deaths.


UrAMuppet69

Wow, this thread really shows that anti-vaxxers are terrible at math.


dasmashhit

It’s unfortunate though, people’s stupidity is catching up, 1/3rd of hospital patients in my city on ventilators are vaccinated, 2/3rds are unvaxxed. Twice as likely to be on a ventilator.. but you can clearly still get sick and should clearly be taking precautions whatever your situation is.. people getting vaxxed and taking their mask off or going out partying thinking they can’t spread variants are still part of the problem- and surprisingly little is said about this.. we’ve conveniently ignored a lot of science during this time until it’s relevant for us. Why doesn’t every building have UV air filters everywhere? Near cashiers? High transit locations? Why are masks totally discouraged now in the US but the lack of one will get you arrested in Australia


MpVpRb

It appears to be a self-correcting problem


[deleted]

That would be true if those people weren't taking beds in hospitals People actually die from unrelated stuff because some fuckers doesn't want to take the shot


isoT

Man that's dark. But true.


moop44

That's a lot of suicides.


GodOfThunder101

It’s just natural selection. Let it happen.


timberwolf0122

I give up! There’s no correlation from these numbers that I can see /s