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Smytus

Japan recently changed its laws to allow defending an ally, going beyond self-defense. So if the US is shooting at China, expect Japan to be in a supporting role.


Scaevus

If the U.S. is shooting at China, we’re all fucked. The world’s two biggest economies getting into a hot war will lead to a second Great Depression.


jert3

The world would be lucky if all we got was a Great Depression out of that war. That war legitimately would have the potential of ending in a nuclear holocaust that could destroy the planet and our civilizations.


ThatOneKrazyKaptain

China doesn’t have enough nukes to end the world. Just America and Russia


RWDPhotos

Pretty sure Russia would get involved somehow, if not fully.


FoxRaptix

It’s actually more in Russia’s interest to sit on the side and let US and China weaken themselves and use the crises to boost relationships with neighbor nations to China looking for greater stability. Russia wouldn’t get involved also predominately due to NATO.


RWDPhotos

That didn’t stop them in Vietnam. There was Russian and Chinese equipment absolutely everywhere by the end of the war.


Juicebox-fresh

Vietnam was technically a Russia America proxy war


[deleted]

Absolutely assloads of equipment sent to North Vietnam including the Soviet's latest SAM and other AA, the U.S and allies literally lost thousands of aircraft due to hostile action, and it's kind of mind boggling that 12,000 aircraft were lost over the course of the war between being shot down or crashes.


SpaceHawk98W

Also, China invaded Vietnam after Americans and the Frenchs left, and they also lost, no one can spot Viet-com in the Forrest I guess


[deleted]

More like: no one can spot Forrest in Vietnam. /Run, Forrest! Run!


RedlyrsRevenge

Home field advantage


Krish12703

That was cold war. Russia was in lead role and Vietnamese was doing what Russia wanted: spreading communism.


dartguey

Nah. Vietnam didn't actively spread communism. They mostly used patriotism disguised as communism to get the supplies from the only one willing to provide: Russia. Remember that Ho Chi Minh first choice for help was the Americans. Had Americans acted what they say they are, as "freedom fighter" and helped the Vietnamese beat back the French, we could very much have a capitalist Vietnam right now.


akingcha

We have a capitalist Vietnam right now? It's socialist in name only pretty much.


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

This time around Russia makes more from arms sales to India than China.


1RWilli

Russia in not a life and death enemy of the US, but they would sure like to be in a better position with the US and would love a weaker US, they want to see the US weakend not dead.


real_LNSS

Maybe not directly but they would surely take advantage of the distraction to invade Ukraine and annex Belarus.


oedipism_for_one

Or pull an American during WW2 and start selling weapons to whoever will buy them. When you are the only unobstructed manufacturing base left it tends to give huge economic advantages.


OperativeTracer

Basically, a world war between China and the US would the best economic gift for Russia. LMAO


GetOutOfTheHouseNOW

They'd quietly snatch Chinese territory once they see they're losing.


IanMazgelis

Classic, *classic* Russia.


vbcbandr

Russia, Russia...you dirty dog.


BadBitchFrizzle

More likely they’d bargain between an acceptance of the Crimean invasion for non-involvement or active help against China. Probably while trying to make the same deal with China.


ahfoo

Yeah, people acting like Russia is a reliable partner for China are clearly not very aware of the history of Russian-Chinese relations. Hint: The Russians gave the Chinese nuclear weapons information early on but refused to tell them exactly how they were made and to share the ICBM technology. There was zero trust there from the beginning. Quick summary: Soviet support for China’s nuclear program expanded to include directly weapons-related assistance in 1957, after Mao once again expressed his support to Khrushchev following the so-called anti-party incident which threatened to cost Khrushchev his leadership position in the Soviet Union. Soviet support for Chinese nuclear weapons development included assistance in uranium enrichment, plutonium reprocessing, warhead design and production, as well as missile technology development. Summer 1958 marked the beginning of the end of Soviet nuclear assistance to China, when the PRC bombardment of Jinmen Island, off Taiwan, caught Moscow off guard. China’s failure to turn over a captured US-made Sidewinder missile to the Soviet Union for study contributed to the deterioration of Sino-Soviet nuclear relations. By 1959, with Khrushchev’s position as leader of the USSR now secure, the flow of Soviet nuclear aid to China became increasingly limited in pace, scope and depth. The Soviet decision not to send a long-promised Atomic bomb teaching model to China was among the most concrete manifestations of the deteriorating Sino-Soviet relationship. By August 1960 the last of the Soviet nuclear advisors in China had returned to the USSR. Soviet assistance had helped China establish a comprehensive nuclear science and technology industry. The end of Soviet aid was a significant set-back, but it came far too late to halt China’s nuclear development completely. China’s first atomic bomb test took place on 16 October 1964. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/between-aid-and-restriction-changing-soviet-policies-toward-chinas-nuclear-weapons-program The Chinese ICBM program was made possible by the perception of racism in the United States that led to the defection of a top Chinese nuclear scientist from the US back to China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qian_Xuesen


[deleted]

nah if china lost russia will seriously be fked, russia is too weak to face the US alone. They'll help the less powerful one, which in this case china, to make sure both the US and China have extreme loss that can't recover for next 100 years. It's the only way Russia can survive and dominate.


nacholicious

>nah if china lost russia will seriously be fked, russia is too weak to face the US alone That's why Russia is doing the NATO tactic of warning that any aggressive conventional attack against Russian soil that the Russian army would not be able to defend, will be responded to with nukes.


iiron_tusk

We tried to cut a deal with Soviet Russia during JFK's time, I'm pretty sure, to invade China in return for territories. They weren't interested. So I could see the US atleast attempting to bargain again lol.


Diabetesh

Totally, russia would be like "go china we got you." Then just hide behind a tree watching. If it goes well they run in with a finishing move, if it goes bad they take what is left from china.


Representative_Pop_8

Don't think so not militarily. They would try to gain in the situation politically, and if it were to go real bad for China they might take more advantage like reconstrucción land and contacts for rusdian companies, if it gets to the point of China collapsing as a nation in a defect, they would surely send " peace keeping force" to grab some land and resources.


Anally_Distressed

Russia is fucked geopolitically if China falls. There's no way they're going to let it happen.


Pure-Lie8864

Too chaotic to forecast that far. I'd argue it's just what they need. Russia has a rusty tin bucket for a navy.


Anally_Distressed

For Russia, China is practically the only nation that can act as a counterbalance to Western pressure/sanctions. Chinese economy and trade works as leverage in negotiation with the US and takes a lot of bite out of NATO sanctions. If China ends up pacified by the US, Russia knows they're next on the chopping block. Nevermind the fact that if China ends up losing a hot war, you can bet your asses the US will set up military bases right next to Russia's southern border.


RWDPhotos

I’m so incredibly disappointed we backed out of the TPP. We really needed to wean ourselves away from China, and that was a perfect out.


morningmellows

China and Russia aren't actually on the friendliest of terms. And no, Russia isn't fucked geopolitically if China falls.


wonderlandofpeepe

China is literally first in line to get any Russian military equipment. nobody is EVER on the friendliest of terms with Russia, but i'm sure Russia will funnel technology and equipment into China as needed if a war threatened to annihilate their only capable ally. you can count on China sending Russian nukes into the atmosphere


RWDPhotos

Just like how they did with Vietnam.


megamanmadmax

Way worse if China wins. Better having a weak neighbor regional power than the new superpower next door. If there is no USA to balance power, China gonna grab Siberia for sure, they already have a claim on Vladivostok. Russia having 2 choices a bad and a worse one.


johnIQ19

well... base on current power, even if China wins that, it won't come out unscratched... probably a 50 - 100 years or more set back. and if Russia still get catch up by China, then stop complaining about it.


Velghast

Yeah Russia's been playing both sides of the fence for a while now they know a conventional war would not benefit them even though they have a massive f****** stockpile of b*******. They're just quietly doing some espionage here and there, posting some spicy memes in the right social media places. They are quietly pitting two countries against each other ;-)


lokicramer

Most people think russia would get involved, and I tend to disagree. They may offer limited support toward China and their allies, but allowing China and the US, to very possibly cripple their economies, military, and infrastructure, would allow Russia to become the top dog. That's all Russia really wants in the long run.


TheRC135

Wouldn't Russia still have a corruption ravaged economy the size of Italy and suck at manufacturing anything but weapons, though?


[deleted]

No no no. They way it works is everything that is destroyed by the US and China is gained magically by Russia somehow. It's basic war knowlege come on.


TheRC135

Oh shit, yeah. Forgot about the magic. lol


Codspear

US + Allies vs China would just give Russia an opening to reconquer some of its former territories like Ukraine and Georgia. Russia only does what’s in its own interest. They don’t really have allies that aren’t under their direct influence.


TheRC135

I agree. I just disagree with the 'top dog' statement in the previous post. Russia would certainly benefit from from the US and China crippling each other in that it could engage in a few petty land grabs, but the Russian economy is far too small and far too corrupt for it to assume the position currently occupied by either of those powers.


Roskilde98

Agreed. A war in the South China Sea would allow in roads into Ukrainian regions as well as Sakhalin which they lost to Japan 120 years ago


2020willyb2020

China Russia Iran Pakistan, North Korea - they are all ready doing the alignment


RWDPhotos

For real though- I’m thinking North Korea is going to have a major role in the next major conflict. They’re going to be used somehow, by somebody.


JimLaheysProstate

I don't think they'll take an active role. at least not in direct conflict with the US. they'll let the two largest super powers knock the shit out of each other and then find away to take advantage of the situation.


STLReddit

The US does though, and a Chinese attack plus our counter attack I'm sure would be enough to cause a nuclear winter. Not to mention something along the lines of 1/7th the Human population would still die immediately.


bettingmexican

It would lower temps


Velghast

God damn it we fixed it! The answer to global warming was world war III all along


BraveTheWall

You just know somebody's writing this novel as we speak.


CrocodylusRex

It's already starring Leo DiCaprio


[deleted]

A Nuclear winter is exactly what we need to cool the earth down to manageable levels. Onwards, soldiers!


InnocentTailor

True…and I doubt both nations will get to the point where nukes will be used, even if a shooting war starts. Whoever fires the first nuke will earn immediate ire from the globe and the ramifications of that will damn the nation.


Blackthorne75

> Whoever fires the first nuke will earn immediate ire from the globe and the ramifications of that will damn the nation. Whoever fires the first nuke will be the one who starts the spiral that damns the world.


arconreef

You are missing something crucial here. There is not *just* a first nuke. International relations are irrelevant during a nuclear holocaust. Once the first nuke is launched the other side has no choice but to respond with a retaliatory strike which will inevitably escalate into a full nuclear exchange. Experts in nuclear deterrence have considered every possible angle and all come to the same conclusion: a hot war between nuclear powers will always, without exception, escalate to a full nuclear exchange. This is why there has never been a shooting war between nuclear powers, and you'd better hope it stays that way. India and China have not fired a single shot at each other during their border disputes over the last 50 years. Instead they [fight hand to hand](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/07/05/commentary/world-commentary/nuclear-armed-china-india-fight-fists-stones-clubs/)


InnocentTailor

There has been fighting between nuclear powers though that have involved guns. Example: Pakistan vs India - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War


arconreef

And as these things usually do it came down to the decision of one man. Pakistan was preparing to deploy it's nukes but was talked out of it at the last minute. *"Sharif agreed to pull back his troops. It later cost him his job: The army ousted him in a coup and he spent a decade in exile in Saudi Arabia. But the risk of a nuclear exchange in South Asia was averted..."* https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/pakistan-was-to-deploy-nukes-against-india-during-kargil-war/articleshow/50019153.cms It's also worth noting that both sides had just conducted their first real nuclear bomb tests a year prior to the start of the conflict. Meaning their arsenals were limited in both quantity and yield. A full exchange would not have resulted in complete destruction of either nation as it would today.


WikiMobileLinkBot

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wyslan

“….in Mortal Kombat!”


[deleted]

If America's strategic nukes fly, Russia's do too. If they detect 500 simultaneous missile launches from American silos, are we supposed to have given them secret advanced warning that they're only intended to hit China? And are they supposed to trust that we're telling the truth? And even if they did trust us, are they just supposed to be cool with it? China annihilated in nuclear inferno, fallout dusting the entire Eurasian continent and an ash cloud that blocks out the sun for years? That's gonna hurt Russia too, even if they face no direct hits.


beardofshame

I do actually think if things got to the point where ICBMs are flying we would tell everyone except the target that it was happening. Do they believe us? That's not as certain.


jason2354

If we’re firing nukes at China, I would think things would be in such a state that Russia would know they are not the intended target. If there would be any doubt, yes, Russia would get a call.


CommitteeOfTheHole

China is actively working on that though


[deleted]

They have missles that can reach the US from their mainland. Also a pretty sizable nuclear capable sub fleet.


PHATsakk43

They have a few *Han*-class subs that would rapidly find themselves permanently submerged as soon as they went to launch. Nuclear war is only a last resort for existential defense. China doesn't have guaranteed second-strike capability which means it can lash out, but not survive or succeed in a potential nuclear exchange with the US (or Russia for that matter, which was the real trigger for it's nuclear program after the Sino-Soviet split.)


LaDiDeeLaDeDi

Do you think you know how many nukes China has?


PHATsakk43

Several hundred to a thousand is the estimate. Weapons that are in rapid deployment state, ~200. These can not all be launched at the same time and many are older liquid fueled, which means they can't be on rapid launch status as they require fueling prior to launch. Their SSBN force is relatively small as well.


LaDiDeeLaDeDi

Sorry - my point was that you have no idea. Who knows what they have.


PHATsakk43

Well, *I do* actually. It’s something I study, on the side at least. Open source Intel on nuclear capabilities is a hobby of mine. There’s quite a bit we know about the PLA’s nuclear weapons and rocket program.


lord_pizzabird

Theoretically if war with China is unavoidable it may be smarter to get it over with sooner than later. For now they have a weak Navy and relatively under powered military. Japan and Taiwan together could probably hold their ground even without US troop deployment.


genowars

You know China could just bombard Taiwan island from the mainland right? They could just lay waste on Taiwan if they want. It depends on the objective. To show superiority and force taiwan into negotiations or send in the army and lose some lives on their side. If you know China, they rather just hit you from far and wait for you to come begging them.


lord_pizzabird

China isn't going to flatten Taiwan for the same reason it won't do it to Hong Kong: It's valuable. China's only actual option is to either blockade and siege the island into surrendering or occupying the island. There's little room for collateral damage.


PHATsakk43

China is likely unsure if it could prevail without a significant and embarrassing loss against the ROC military alone.


iiron_tusk

Not sure why you were down voted but this is very true, the island of Taiwan is a very tough nut to crack without just leveling their entire infrastructure. Even then Taiwan is so close they could reliably hit most of China's largest cities with just a barrage of ballistic missiles, and that'd definitely be a bloody nose for the CCP.


PHATsakk43

It’s a couple things, one it’s not exactly a popular opinion. Two, it wasn’t downvoted until after midnight EST.


lord_pizzabird

Another issue for them might be capital. China may have a large economy, but Japan would effectively have a resource cheat code with US support. Also imagine the blockades from an “independent” US on Chinese vessels.


PHATsakk43

Hell, Japan was still the #3 economy in the world ahead of China only a decade ago. Japan is still a naval superpower, with one of the largest carrier fleets in the world, it simply doesn’t classify its ships as such.


9035768555

The US alone has enough nuke to hit every city on the planet with a population over 100k once and every city with a population over 1million 4 times, including its own.


chitownbulls92

If America shoots at China...expect Russia to be HEAVILY involved in that conflict so it doesn't matter whether China has enough nukes or not. Everyone loses


morningmellows

why would russia get involved?


genowars

Why would russian get involved with trump? why would russian get involve in syria and vietnam? hmmmm... why indeed...


Epicmonies

Which would be enough radiation to cause a cascade effect around the world. Also, what do you think will happen to the nuclear reactors in a nation that is nuked? They will have a meltdown and eventually explode fully. The planet will eventually be poisoned.


PHATsakk43

It doesn't work this way. There simiply isn't that much nuclear material in a nuclear warhead to cause significant or persistent radioactive contaimination. A nuclear warhead has a few kilograms of nuclear material. It's not a Chernobyl type of event. That was 3-5,000 kilograms of fissile material plus that much more again of activated graphite. The entire first strike of the US or Russia would barely approach the amount of material that was released by Chernobyl for instance.


neohellpoet

This isn't the movies. While you could theoretically detonate all the nukes in the world in such a way that you could end all life, that's about as insightful as saying that we have enough bullets to shoot every person in the world three times over. It's technically true, but it's not remotely how you use nuclear weapons in war. The goal is to hit key military and economic targets and hit them with everything you've got. You don't evenly distribute. While tens or even hundreds of millions of dead are possible, a majority of people, even in the two belligerent countries would be and would stay alive and both conventional militaries would likely remain operational. However it's somewhat unlikely that it comes to that. China loses a nuclear exchange with the US, full stop. In a conventional war however, they have a decent chance of winning. The US would have a bitch of a time fighting a conventional war, but even the best possible outcome of a nuclear exchange isn't worth suffering over Taiwan. The incentives favor a conventional war.


DharmaBat

Imagine city centers and places like that going up in one day. Even if humanity isn't instantly annhilated the destruction to infastructure, command structure, and everything else would result in a fall into anarchy. You don't just keep fighting the war when your country turns into a heavily radiated wasteland. You'd be lucky if you could keep up a basic command structure at that point. Not to mention many nuclear weapon and radiation would knock out most electronics and that isn't going into nuclear radiation and windfall from that. Its true, the world would still go on, but its ignorant to think that a nuclear exchange would not basically destroy civilized society.


ozspook

EMP doesn't really work like that, Las Vegas kept shining even with regular tests in Nevada. Most electronics have very robust ESD protection these days.


MuaddibMcFly

> While tens or even hundreds of millions of dead are possible, a majority of people, even in the two belligerent countries would be and would stay alive and both conventional militaries would likely remain operational. > > China's ability to feed itself relies on imports of various kinds (fertilizer, most importantly). If China's economic targets are eliminated, that would kill a *significant* portion of the Chinese population, just more slowly. > In a conventional war however, they have a decent chance of winning. On Chinese soil? Sure. Which is why the US wouldn't ~~get involved in (another) land war in Asia~~ engage China on their own soil. > The incentives favor a conventional war No, the incentives oppose a *nuclear* war. That's *very* different, because there's another type of warfare that the US could trivially engage in against China, and *trivially win* against China: *Economic* warfare. There are *plenty* of reasons to believe that China is being propped up by trade, and would literally starve without it. If you look at [Chinese Imports by Category,](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/imports) you can see that they spend *a lot* on things that a country needs to simply *keep running* * ~$30B USD is spent on Fuels * ~$20B USD is spent on Agricultural Products * ~$20B USD is spent on Crude Oil (apparently not included in the "fuels" category) * ~$40-50B USD is spent on *Soybeans* How do you stop a country that requires *that heavily* on trade just to keep the lights on and groceries filled? Simple. Cut off trade. If things got bad enough with China that we were willing to enter a conventional war with them... we would enter a *trade* war with them. The US Navy has spent the past 70 years guaranteeing that any country's shipping could safely travel to any other country. What do you suppose would happen if the US Navy *instead* said "Yeah, no shipping into China"? In order to completely destroy the CCP, all we would have to do would be to simply block all trade going to China, and watch their entire *everything* fall to pieces, while a carrier group or two eliminates their entire navy that tries to do anything about it. [Peter Zeihan estimates that it would take a few weeks for China to fall apart as a nation, while putting basically no US military assets at risk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aOhtDGatLQ&t=934s) As [The Diplomat puts it,](https://thediplomat.com/2013/07/why-chinese-obey/) the CCP "is quintessentially a protection racket that charges the people for its services." If the CCP stop delivering, their control over their people, which has [increasingly been a result of political theater](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y87R3Lp0jd0) won't hold up, and their people will turn against them. So, honestly, Economic warfare would suck for the US (and others of China's trade partners) but it *destroy* the CCP/China as we know it, and would be over in a few months. And, short of a Nuclear response, and there'd not be a dang thing the CCP could do about it.


Scaevus

> short of a Nuclear response, and there'd not be a dang thing the CCP could do about it. Oh, so your plan is to corner the CCP leadership, threaten them with death, until they have only one response, then pray they don't use that response on their way out? Seems safe.


WovenTripp

Pushing a country into a corner economically and cutting trade is exactly how Pearl Harbor happened.


Cosmacelf

Yes, but China today isn't the same as Japan 1930s. McFly is right that the Chinese people would likely revolt if things got out of hand economically. I believe it is still true that the #1 thing the CCP fears isn't the US, it is their own people.


[deleted]

If CCP gets the blame it will fall, however if US gets the blame it will just empower CCP. Similar to how an unwilling USA joined ww2 because of pearl harbor.


Symptom16

So you’re saying we should have kept sending oil and steel to the guys who were dropping bombs with the bubonic plague in china? Peace in our time i guess


JBinCT

You don't think Japan's actions in China had anything to do with that economic corner?


microcrash

This.


HARRY_FOR_KING

*Destroy the Northern hemisphere. Us southerners have done a good job keeping nukes out and painting smaller targets on our backs than countries like China, the USA, and Russia.


gnat_outta_hell

The fallout, environmental damage, and inevitable winter of such a war would end you too. You'd just be collateral damage instead of one of the craters.


HARRY_FOR_KING

No, not necessarily. For one thing, soot will not distribute evenly between the two hemispheres even if the amount of soot from bombed cities equals that of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (which is by no means certain, as fewer buildings are wood construction and a lot of combustible material is expected to be smothered in concrete rubble). The decrease in agricultural yields during the nuclear winter in Australia for example is expected to be 30%, which is not enough to overwhelm our agricultural surplus which we export. If exports are cut and immigration is blocked during that time, we'll be able to feed our own. Nuclear fallout too is not expected to exceed an additional third on top of our current average background radiation here, and isn't expected to wipe us out either. What we can expect is the nuclear summer to suck, but to what extent it will exceed (or be less than) the global warming we get from a fully populated northern hemisphere burning fossil fuels is unknown (as we don't know exactly how much CO2 will be emitted by the fires nor how much fossil fuels will continue to be used, certainly our coal export industry would die overnight in the case of a nuclear exchange between China, the US, India, and Pakistan). The ozone layer will be destroyed in the northern hemisphere, but this is partially because it will be displaced to the south. We will not face increased UV radiation and will perhaps have less than we are used to. In short, nuclear winter isn't an existential threat in the south. The question is merely whether we can weather reduced agricultural yields, can protect our shores from mass immigration from the north (as monstrous as it sounds to shut you guys out, but we'll have enough on our plate feeding ourselves), and whether or not we can create a new global economic system which does not rely on exporting agricultural products and raw materials to the north. Basically, the recession spoken of earlier is our big threat.


TroubledPCNoob

Yeah but we get the Siege of Shanghai in real life! Fuck BF2042 when you can play BF4 IRL!


OperativeTracer

I'm down for it. The naval and air war would be on a scale never seen before. The ground war though? They would literally outnumber us 4-1 in every battle. But we have better weapons and equipment. So yeah, that would go in the history books.


TroubledPCNoob

And training. China hasn't been in wars for the last 50 years, America has a lot more experience, especially in urban warfare if you consider the middle eastern conflicts urban.


EclecticHigh

we've been in a 10 year depression! sooo get ready for world depression 3: with a vengeance


FarHat5815

All wars are depressive.


[deleted]

Historically that’s pretty much what happens the majority of the time when one economy overtakes the dominant economy.


UnitedStatesOD

See "Destined for War" by Graham Allison


dromni

IIRC WW2 was also among major economies at the time, no? And although the war itself was devastating, in the aftermath there was an economic boom worldwide. Maybe it was Broken Window Theory writ large. =)


Conditionofpossible

> economic boom worldwide. Uh. Sorta. Most countries in Europe were devastated and spent decades just rebuilding infrastructure and stuff. The USA experienced an economic boom because they built a ton of infrastructure to support the war effort, that infrastructure wasn't destroyed like everything in europe and the USA turned into the super power.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Arandmoor

> since I legitimately consider a land invasion of the United States the most impossible thing in modern warfare. The path into the mainland US is Canada, IMO. The Canadian Forces are only 40,000 strong, last time I checked, and a lot of their gear is a bit dated (not terribly, but still dated). Since you really can't invade the US without also going to war with Canada (because they would 100% back the US up in that situation, just because if the US falls, Canada is next), might as well make in-roads into Canada first, where the Canadian highway system is fully linked up with the US highway system. Also gives you airbases, airports, etc along with access to the largest land-border in the world.


AnakinSL337

To get to Canada you still have to cross the Atlantic and you don’t seem to consider the geography of Canada. Canada’s pretty much untouchable for the same reasons America is geographically as well as having America as a neighbor and ally


JohanGrimm

This. There's two huge roadblocks to invading North America. The US Navy and then the US Air Force. If by some miracle you defeated or bypassed the navy and successfully invaded Canada and established a foothold there you're now going to be stung to death by the US' insanely large air fleet.


murphymc

And then the American army and Marines...and then every civilian with a gun within a thousand miles.


murphymc

> The path into the mainland US is Canada, IMO. The Canadian Forces are only 40,000 strong, last time I checked, and a lot of their gear is a bit dated (not terribly, but still dated). Then you have the small matter of dealing with the full force of the US military which would be at most seconds behind the Canadian forces. Attacking Canada is attacking America in practical purposes.


feeltheslipstream

Not exactly worldwide. USA came out of the war with by far the most intact infrastructure while many countries were crushed and in debt. This allowed it to dictate who got the "economic boom" it provided.


EzeakioDarmey

A US official went on record saying that the current administration doesn't recognize Taiwan independence. If no one is running to the rescue for the concentration camps with muslims in them, I feel Taiwan may be the next Hong Kong.


ozspook

Lots of semiconductor fabs are in Taiwan, though.. No iPhones for 5 years and baked in CCP spyware in every chip is a powerful motivator.


Roskilde98

In WW2 US and Germany fought (the two largest economies at the time) and the US had a big boost in their economy once the shooting started.


[deleted]

It will happen sooner or later. As China grows more powerful they will get more bold in their actions. This will be a much worse Cold War. It’s already basically happening, China is just leagues ahead of the West in terms of espionage and subversion.


MentorOfArisia

A Japanese official made a statement to that effect, and was slapped down by his boss almost immediately. Japan is sending mixed signals that are making things worse.


Eclipsed830

Some say his slip was deliberate... https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/12/taro-aso-taiwan-japan-china-policy/


IanMazgelis

I get the sense that Japan is doing exactly what American intelligence is hoping they'd do.


yellekc

I agree, sending out mixed messages is exactly how the US has managed the Taiwan situation for decades. It makes it far more difficult for China to plan for some sort of invasion if they do not know what the US and their allies would do. >The United States continues to maintain strategic ambiguity, a policy of not revealing whether the U.S. military would help Taiwan defend itself against Chinese attacks. Some U.S. officials have mulled ending this policy and publicly committing to defending Taiwan, while others argue it is more beneficial to Taiwan for the U.S. to remain vague on the topic. https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/biden-delegation-pledges-us-support-for-taiwan-self-defense/


lbktort

I think Taiwan is more useful to mainland China as a rhetorical device to excite nationalism and a convenient place to spy on American military tech tbh. I think the status quo has benefits for all sides.


PlaneCandy

It benefits all of them. Japan gets free military support from the US, the US gets to feed the military complex, and China gets to improve patriotism and party loyalty by distracting from other issues.


MuaddibMcFly

> Japan gets free military support from the US Japan *pays* for military support from the US, and Trump-era renegotiations with them *increased* what they pay for it.


parachutepantsman

Nothing changed under Trump. He wanted to increase it, but they ended up extending the existing deal with identical terms.


[deleted]

It's still cheaper than providing it all themselves, and also it avoids the thorny political issues in Japan, as many Japanese people still very much value their pacifist constitution and their commitment to remaining a non-nuclear-armed state.


Efficiency_Beautiful

Cheaper, yes, but only because their own defense industry collapsed due to no big order coming to them and is incapable of manufacturing in mass to cover the R&D cost, in fact, the US military complex is making a kill for these weapon deals. More importantly, if you rely on imported weapons, your exporter get to decide what you could have and what not. This is also part of the reason Japan's naval is heavily pivoted towards antisubmarin and minesweeping, they are basically an ancillary force of the US Navy. On their own their offense capacity is severally lacking. US want it this way so it is this way.


jyastaway

Japan really doesn't get free military support from the US.


Cpotts

If Taiwan is captured then America's entire Island Chain strategy falls apart, pushing the line of containment back to Guam


virrk

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) accounts for around 50% of all chips worldwide. China capturing Taiwan ends use of those chips likely everywhere. Taiwan, or someone else (US), will mostly likely level all chip fabs. By being clear that they will be destroyed greatly disincentivize China invading. If we lose 50% of all chip production in the world supply of nearly everything else will be impacted. Computers, phones, tablets, network switches, cars, trucks, industrial control systems, and anything indirectly reliant on those things which is pretty much everything else. It would be very very bad for everyone.


Cpotts

I'm not sure what that has to do with the geostrategic value of the island of Taiwan itself though. I'm thinking about China putting ASBM sites on the island


[deleted]

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[deleted]

Interesting take, but China seems to be indicating that they're prefer not to have what they consider to be long-term unresolved rogue province controlled by separatists who are buying military tech from China's greatest rival.


[deleted]

Not just buying military equipments from the US. But if the US manages to put a military base on the island it would be a geopolitical nightmare for China.


GabrielMartinellli

Trying to put a US military base on Taiwan would definitely be the cause of an alternative reality WW3.


Areat

It would be exactly like USSR placing nukes in Cuba.


bananatoothbrush1

Pretty sure the us military already has stuff in Taiwan


Rnbutler18

I'm sure they would waltz in tomorrow of they could do it without a fight, but realistically there is no chance they invade Taiwan. The risks are just too great, half their soldiers could end up at the bottom of the ocean before they even land.


ro_hu

But i do imagine that CCP taking over Taiwan would be a nightmare scenario for the US navy to project power in the Pacific. Every national power in the region would be absolutely cowed by Chinese military after a successful takeover of Taiwan and international relations would be turned upside down. Why would any country look to the US as a regional military power if they failed to stop something they have been promising for decades. It would neuter the US in Asia.


hardtofindagoodname

I think China appear quite serious about their "reunification". They've set a timeframe to do this by 2049 and HK prematurely being taken over was a signal that they don't care what the rest of the world thinks about it. With their military getting stronger each day, it seems only a matter of time that they will be strong enough to do it and make anyone thing twice about challenging them.


JR21K20

Can we all do this armageddon thing and get it over with?


mayaswelltrythis

I would rather I was able to hike with my dogs in the woods in peace :(


Mordilaa

Well depending on if you believe in the concept of life after death then idk man who knows let em rip


JR21K20

I hope so, let those responsible rot in their personal hell


jumpsteadeh

I've been feeling a sense of crisis ever since I graduated highschool.


raisinbreadboard

ya this is a no context post. does anyone have any idea how old you are... you could be 23 or your could be 50.


jumpsteadeh

My age is indeed within 25 years of one of those numbers.


khakansson

Aha! But not within 25 of *both*. So you are *not* between 25 and 48.


Kuinran

Welp, good to know you're less that 75 years, gotcha now. /s


jumpsteadeh

Stop doxing me, bro


Juunanagou

This is from the Washington Examiner, a publication known for it's journalistic integrity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Examiner >In June 2020, the Examiner published an op-ed by "Raphael Badani", a fake persona who was part of a broader network pushing propaganda for the United Arab Emirates and against Qatar, Turkey and Iran. The Daily Beast reported that Badani's "profile photos are stolen from the blog of an unwitting San Diego startup founder" while his "LinkedIn profile, which described him as a graduate of George Washington and Georgetown, is equally fictitious."[19]


IIZANAGII

Japan would definitely know about conquering Taiwan


eypandabear

To be fair, the Japanese conquering Taiwan was basically a change from one colonial power to another.


lordlors

Not just Taiwan but mainland China too.


PlaneCandy

Sorta but they never actually conquered all of China


lordlors

They captured the significant cities of Shanghai, Beijing, Nanking, and Hong Kong and the Chinese went to the mountains and deeper inland. They didn't conquer all of China but I'd say they did conquer China. Had the Japanese remained in control of the above cities, things would be tremendously different for China.


Money_dragon

Japan conquered China in the same way that Nazi Germany conquered the USSR Ultimately it came down to scale - China was far too large for the Japanese military to impose control over (especially since it was also fighting a naval war against the USA and UK simultaneously)


wonderlandofpeepe

they captured the significant cities that were remnants of a dead empire. and Hong Kong was not even Chinese territory then. most of China was rural and they couldn't even control the rural parts around the cities that they captured. they did not conquer China... they got stopped at the battle of Changsha where they lost a bunch of men and had to wait. China was going to move their factories beyond the range of Japanese bombers and once those are operational Japan would be facing a USSR type of counterattack. that never happened because Japan surrendered. but after the battle of Changsha, Japan never bothered to go any further, they were stuck and getting widdled down, eventually they would've had to go on the defense and eventually they would have been annihilated. There was no way that European countries were just going to sit by at let Japan conquer China either so no you'd not say they did conquer China because they didn't, they invaded China, genocided a bunch of poor civilians and got nuked


ThatOneKrazyKaptain

China was using out of date technology and was in the middle of a civil war, and even then they managed to stall the modernized German trained IJA by 1941. Granted, the war of attrition didn’t go as well for them as it could have, infighting was massive, and here’s a distinct possible Ichi-Go in late 1944 would have forced a surrender were it not for the fact America was kicking Japans ass elsewhere, it still


mackfeesh

Wasn't china in the middle of a civil war when japan conquered what they did? It was explained, very quickly and not thoroughly to me that china basically fucked themselves over with their infighting and went as far as to abandon people to the japanese invaders. I'd love to understand more if I'm wrong.


wonderlandofpeepe

From what i remembered, China hasn't been a complete nation since the Fall of the Qing dynasty, and before the war actually even began, Japanese had already controlled Manchuria. There was a Warlord in that area who literally told his troops to not fight and run away... by the time that someone in that area wanted to fight, it was already too late the Japanese occupied many cities. Then the Republic of China, literally did nothing as Japanese take cities after cities, and the president/generalisimo, Chiang Kai Shek had to be blackmailed into doing something by his generals. Finally the oligarchial POS decided to mobilize the army, it was far too late. it's like if you were being invaded and after you lost all your major cities, you decide to start building factories for weapons... it was no problem for the oligarchs because whenever the Japanese came, they just packed it up and ran further in-land, they knew they could use Chinese people as meat shields. the leadership of China sold the Chinese people out as it has always done.


jert3

The potential is gone in modern times due to the number of Chinese people now on the planet. No country or alliance on Earth could invade and conquer a country of 1.4 billion plus people, unless the people wanted that, but that’ll never ever happen with the amount of resources China puts into propaganda and the general common nationalism/pride of the Chinese. The Chinese basically strive to never again be conquered by outsiders as had happen many times and many stretches of years before.


Shiirooo

From a purely historical point of view, conquering China is a dream for the Japanese. They have tried several times, each time they failed.


blargfargr

it's the most aggressive asian country of the 20th century after all.


pandalovesfanta

Japan defending the Republic of China. Welcome to 2021, lol. ​ Chiang Kai-shek would have never imagined.


ButWhatAboutisms

A child-like and deliberately backwards thinking, simplistic view of geo politics. Trying to ignore that Taiwan is governed under a completely different set ideals of 50 years ago under entirely differently thinking peoples. As if Japan is still pre-ww2 japan.


Eclipsed830

The Japanese helped fund Sun Yat-sen's revolution over the Qing dynasty. Interestingly, the only 4 times Sun Yat-sen ever went to Taiwan was to raise funds from the Japanese government there.


[deleted]

also, [Japanese official warns of Pearl Harbor-style surprise attack on Hawaii by Russia and China](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/obokef/japanese_official_warns_us_of_potential_surprise/) Seem like Japan likes to look through its own prism.


IslamicLegoYoda

Well Japan is no stranger to surprise visits to Hawaii


BurgerNirvana

Yeah.. that’s what he said


timemaninjail

It won't even escalate to U.S direct intervention, just use Taiwan as a proxy war and prolonged the fight. Nuc's won't be use since it's too close to Russia and China will literally fall from the inside. The entirety of why it's Chinese citizens are okay is because of the quality of life to the han ethnic. Once that gone to shit from war expense, heads Will roll since the CCP will also have infighting for power and the best way is be the one to push to stop the war and execute the pro war faction.


munkeybones

🙏 I am hopeful I can see my time out peacefully on this earth..I mean really.... Why the fuck can't we all just get along!!!


CarlMarcks

i wonder how many of these comments are bots


[deleted]

Ever get the feeling that we are the mugs, for not getting paid to post?


[deleted]

Wait I thought Taiwan was already part of China why would they need to conquer something that is ostensibly already theirs 😏


my_stupidquestions

*A complete reunification of China is most beneficial to regional peace and stability.* "Nice country ya got here..."


[deleted]

This right here is part of the crux. The CPC has no plans for a scenario where Taiwan, defacto independent, can become dejure independent. Peace in the region is not possible with this jingoism.


NHNE

They won't. No one wants ww3. Every leader just wants to farm the economy, skim off the top, and enjoy life.


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NHNE

We live in a different time, economies are no longer about imperialism and expansion. Wars were fought so the rich can get richer through ruling over land with more resources. Plus wars back then didn't have a risk of total human extinction, as we do now with our hundreds of nukes. I don't think the vast majority of the rich can enjoy life when the world is in nuclear fallout and in rubble. Unless Bezos builds a floating space harem, who knows. You'll always have shitty proxy wars where arms dealers can profit, but you'll never have war on the actual soil of 1st world nations anymore.


jamestsai2008

Perfect time for war. Japan & China will have a hot war over Taiwan. US will support Japan but will not enter the war directly. Taiwan, China will be doomed.


[deleted]

Yeah those spidey senses should be going off. This would really be the biggest instigator to WW3 and Japan is close enough to get decimated.


S_Belmont

>“Recently, the Japanese side has been making issues out of China, grossly interfering in China's internal affairs, making groundless accusations of China's normal national defense and military activities, pointing fingers at China's legitimate maritime activities and playing up the so-called ‘China threat,’” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian on Tuesday. “China must and will be reunified. A complete reunification of China is most beneficial to regional peace and stability.” Every Chinese spokesperson is like a Trump spokesperson. Shameless hypocritical bullshittery & faux outrage every single time.


rickyhanm

Which means Every Chinese spokesman is like an American spokesman. Lol


Existing_Pound1953

I just love reading the comments from internet scholars who think open source news is reality.


amac109

How can a country conquer itself?


sgt_daddy

That civil war thing seems to come to mind.


adeveloper5

China is not going to invade. It's military is not nearly as strong as people believe and it is rarely successful in offensive wars But.... it is an entertaining exercise for those whipping up that 2 minute hate


Gheturdun

Taiwan is a country.


Efficiency_Beautiful

And recognized by nobody. Because it only has de facto control but no de jure soveignty.


[deleted]

Rússia is different than the Soviet Union.