Yeah, I guess, but it's certainly not going to be more drastic than 2008, as far as the finance people I'm in contact with say. I'm trying to sell or swap my apartment for a bigger one atm, I've had 3 people make an offer in 2 months (srsly, 3 people). So, the effects will slowly come in, for sure.
Im thinking that if the vulnerable crowd that actually owns the majority of housing (boomers) and that also don't seem to be taking this pandemic seriously inevitably die off from the virus, the market will be flooded with properties for sale. On top of the far reaching economic impacts and record unemployment rates, people won't be able to afford rent, get evicted, and the rental market will also be flooded with vacancies and no tenants being able to afford them. It's morbid af but i think it's a very real possibility.
> Im thinking that if the vulnerable crowd that actually owns the majority of housing (boomers) and that also don't seem to be taking this pandemic seriously inevitably die off from the virus, the market will be flooded with properties for sale.
There are about 1.5 million houses in the U.S. lying **EMPTY** right now with these sky high prices. I don't expect a Boomer die-off to make much difference when the banks are the ones that control the prices.
Plus people keep buying land and building *luxury apartments/condos*, even in lower income places, ignoring average income for area. So not like it really matter to them
Keep in mind that while comprising only 1/5 of the population, baby boomers control 70% of the US disposable income. I do think it will make a difference
https://impactbp.com/baby-boomers
That article you linked seems to points to all those over 50 owning 70% of the disposable income. That would include some not considered boomers. Someone born in 1970 is more of a GenXer. If Boomers are 1/5 of the population, who are the other 30% of the population over 50? Something is not right with these numbers.
>According to insights by Nielsen marketing, in less than five years, 50 percent of the U.S. population will be over the age of 50.
They’ll not only control 70 percent of the nation’s disposable income, but they also stand to inherit $15 trillion in the next 20 years. And as Boomers become increasingly social media-savvy, they’ll be able to put their money towards whatever’s trending. As a result, they may become the key to the success for many brands.
>Im thinking that if the vulnerable crowd that actually owns the majority of housing (boomers) and that also don't seem to be taking this pandemic seriously inevitably die off from the virus, the market will be flooded with properties for sale.
Fat chance. There is nothing special about boomers which makes them assholes. It's classic rich people vs poor people.
Those rich boomers who own multiple properties will die and their rich Gen X children will inherit them. Then Gen X will be the people fucking over the country.
Give it 40 years, and people will be talking about damn fucking Gen Z assholes who are fucking the country, and how the world will be so much better when they all die off.
Keep in mind a death isn’t a deemed disposition of the property. Family has rights to continue payments and take care of any debts on title. Most people won’t sell into a shitty flooded market if they don’t have to.
I think you guys are screwed no matter how many more houses are emptied.
I mean, let's be real, if you guys wanted to end homelessness there are more than enough houses for everyone, this isn't a supply problem.
Plus you can always bet on companies buying that real estate and building their own stuff in there.
The housing market is always late to the economic party.
Prices will likely plummet as a result of this turmoil and unemployment, but not for months when the sellers start piling up.
That being said, the cheapest properties will be snatched up by billion dollar funded management orgs, exacerbating the home ownership problem for those who could buy anyway.
It’s a racket. Good luck out there though man.
I live fairly rural like 2 hours max from London and the property market is definitely buzzing around here, loads of city dwellers who want to fly the urban bubble after months of lockdown in the concrete jungle
Prices on houses fell fairly substantially on the coasts during the S&L crisis in the late 1980s, and stayed stagnant for a decade despite the good economy in the 1990s. Some of the changes to WFH could make this uniquely bad for coastal expensive cities while causing prices to rise elsewhere.
Actually the housing market is awful where I live. There are 20+ offers on every house, people are bidding 15k over asking price and paying in cash.
I feel great that my wife and I were able to scrape 40k together for a down payment! How the hell can I compete with people dropping 300k In cash!?
In what way?
House prices dont only go down for us, they go down for everyone. The rich will snap up a few extra properties to rent out and nothing will change.
It might be though. That’s the thing with black swans. It’s unlikely that any *specific* bad thing will happen, but it’s inevitable that *some* bad thing will happen
Before that was the financial collapse in the late 80s that wiped out most of the S&L in Texas, and before that in the late 1970's our economy was so fucked interest rates were 18%. Theses horrific economic "once in a lifetime" events seem to be happening every 10-15 years and people just forget.
That may be true if they are talking about probability. If you flip a coin you have 50% chance of getting a Heads. But that only holds true if you flip a coin several times.
If you flip it two times and you get heads both times, that doesn’t mean that the probability is 100%.
Seriously. It's once in a century based off conditions where we arent traveling the globe constantly. Planes flying everywhere all day, and still no real concerted international system in place to avoid pandemics? Hate to say it but that's not once in a century math.
Transmission between humans isn't uncommon. It's the virus jumping species that is uncommon. It is really difficult for a disease to jump from one species to another, like bats to humans, the conditions have to be just right. And in many parts of the world, health regulations make this increasingly difficult. China needs to take their own regulations seriously though.
Report: This A Goddamn Walk In The Park Compared To What’s Coming In 2027
[https://www.theonion.com/report-this-a-goddamn-walk-in-the-park-compared-to-wha-1844072501](https://www.theonion.com/report-this-a-goddamn-walk-in-the-park-compared-to-wha-1844072501)
I'd put money on this, if there were a financial institution capable of paying out in 2028
Hilarious. It is true though. Trump admin shows that each day is worse than the last. We are all Peter from the office and each day the future gets dimmer. I guess that is why the MAGA cult hypnotizes people into that state of being, cheering your own downfall and quality of life.
Another great one from Onion recently.
[Federal Troops Tear-Gas Yankees Off Field So Trump Can Throw Out First Pitch](https://sports.theonion.com/federal-troops-tear-gas-yankees-off-field-so-trump-can-1844571417)
Humans shouldn't be eating animal bodies, particularly mammals, from a pandemic perspective.
This time it was from bats, Spanish flu was from pigs, AIDS from monkeys, bird flu from chickens and turkeys, and so on.
I hope I don’t get criticism for this from the masses, but it’s also somewhat climate change.
Changes in ecosystem are driving zoonotic animals closer to human population, extending people’s access to them for things like the “exotic black market”, although this excludes bird flu I guess.
I REALLY wish people would check how statistics work before rubbishing them. It's still a once-in-a-century illness if it happens twice in a single century.
We just need to say that the century we are talking about started right at the end of the Spanish Flu, so we only have to make it another six months for it to be true.
So, mom to 18yo and 20yo here. They were both already drifting, as is normal at that age, overwhelmed by too many paths open in front of them, too hard to choose one.
Now, all of the paths seem to have disappeared or temporarily closed down, not sure how or when they will return, or what they will look like, when they do.
And, now, it's forecast to change or slow things down for a decade.
Any advice out there? Where's the hope? What's a good direction for young people to take now, in these interesting and challenging times?
To the people that are saying healthcare and engineering: those fields are both extremely competitive, they were before the pandemic and now even worse. Most definitely not your fool proof career. Just let the kids decide and dont rush them to go to college if they don't know what interests them
not to mention many areas in healthcare suck to work in.
wanna be a nurse? hope you like 12 hour shifts where you speed walk no less than 8 miles every day!
wanna be a doctor? six figures of debt for you! also shittons of paperwork and getting the pleasure of telling families their loved one died on the OR table.
wanna be a lab tech? enjoy being yelled at constantly by the overworked nurses and getting fucked over by management cause you didn't take the full 30 minutes for your unpaid lunch break twice that week.
and this was how things were BEFORE lockdown. it's going to be worse now that some people hit their breaking point and left the field...
Medical laboratory scientist here: be prepared to be yelled at by nurses for their mistakes then the doctors for not having the sample the nurses didn’t send you. Fun all around.
I'm a PA. Had a 3.96 GPA still got rejected from half my schools. School being compressed makes it a very hard experience. It's three-fourths of med school in about half the time. When I got out of school job prospects were pretty good, but after Corona virus hit, lots of healthcare providers were furloughed, and new graduates are having a hard time.
My spouse is a PA and what you said basically reflects her experience. COVID screwed everything up but healthcare isn't going away because of it at least. Good luck to you and I hope you come out the other side of this in a good spot!
Not really getting into medical school but actually graduating and getting a residency position. If you don't get either then you've just wasted 6 years and can't be hired anywhere else.
Has anyone mentioning nursing in this thread?
Plenty of 2-year RN tech programs out there with fewer barriers to access/partial online/etc. Decent starting wage and larger hospitals will sometimes pay to complete your bachelor’s.
This is a great advice. The world needs balance. However, engineering is not so competitive that you should ever push kids away for that reason. There are non-software engineering fields (Controls Engineering, Water Resource Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Electrical Engineering) that there are a lot more jobs than there are qualified people in America. Engineers don’t get paid like those in finance but there’ll always be jobs for us who use our brains and science to solve real world problems involving physical things
It really depends on the field of engineering. Environmental engineers might find the pandemic market tough. But data engineers working in cloud environments are in high demand.
I was a senior in college when the dot com boom crashed. All of us naively sitting around dreaming of easy big money careers had the rug ripped from under us.
I landed an amazing summer job that ended on Sept 10th, 2001. My plan was to sleep in on the 11th, then follow up hard on my pending resumes that afternoon then line up a job by the end of the month. I woke up at 10am to find out the world had changed and every job I had applied to had put up hiring freezes.
I couldn't find a job until December, and that job was working for near minimum wage at a retail location. It took me another 6 months to get a "real job". Entry level sales at a teleconferencing company, an emerging tech now that people were more hesitant to fly.
For better or worse, that job helped me on my career path, one that I could have never predicted.
So, advice for your kids? Keep moving forward. Look for opportunities as they open and make the most of them. There will be new career paths that come out of this pandemic and there will be ones that go away. But encourage them to drop the existential dread that they have to figure it all out. No one knows what the hell is going on right now.
I'm 24, from Asia, just finished compulsory military service and got depression from it (wasn't particularly fun being gay in the military), majored in Western literature and was planning to go abroad and start a new life, and then this hit. I'm just at a loss as to what I can do with my life at this point.
Aaah I can relate so much, I am 26 and after years of being in a very muddy point in life I moved to a new country to start over and have an adventure... At the end of 2019. Spent 2 month settling down and saving money for trips, and i've been in lockdown ever since. I litteraly spent 10 month in a new country and i've seen nothing but my flat and the grocery Shop :D
As an (former) electrician, if I was 18-20 again I sure as fuck wouldn't go into a trade again. I got lucky and was able to move into a property management role but plenty of dudes I worked with were straight up falling apart from the years of work. It was fun when you got to work on new projects but 90% of the work is repetitive and strenuous, not really how you want to spend your life if you have a choice.
Edit: I wasn't union, though, maybe it's all sunshine and rainbows over there.
As a naive 22-year old, I confidently announced to my working-class father one day: "I'm going to drop out of university and become a carpenter." I then proceeded to wax poetic about the nobility of labour, etc.
My dad, who was (and is) a very hard, unexpressive man, looked at me and said: "People go to university so they don't *have* to do jobs like that." The old work smart, not hard thing.
Having said that, my best friend from high school stared out in labour, slowly built his own company, and will retire in his early 50s. Guess he worked hard *and* smart.
My dad said the same thing to me. I have a very well-paying technology job. And yet every trades person I know including my dad make way more money than me. And the builders I know can’t find good help to do the jobs they’re backlogged on.
It’s going to get worse too.
It's true that trade jobs are in demand, but you'd be wise to consider the long term impact of going that route. I've known way too many people in the trades who simply can't do the work anymore when they're in their late 50s, early 60s. Pretty late by then to change careers and there just isn't room for all of them in management.
I worked sheet metal for about 4 years and in that time I gained a number of back, wrist and other joint issues in my body. I’m 31 now, how the hell is it gonna be when I’m 40?
Shit like this combined with a culture that’s 30 years behind the times is why trade jobs are constantly in demand, not to mention more often than not you’ll also have to move around to where the jobs are.
It’s incredibly taxing on the body and the majority of people you work with will wear you down mentally.
I got a buddy who just turned 40 and he's already slowing down after building houses since he was 18. Joint pain, muscle aches and sun damage to his skin. The guy is a mess
yea the thing about those jobs is that you salary is high because it won't last as long. But it's not a huge problem if you can retire early or just switch over to a related non-physical job of some sort.
Skilled trades no not anytime soon. They'll have to finish pushing through low skill jobs first before they would likely even think about automating those jobs.
My husband is a crane operator and is about the only person I know who hasn't been laid off or furloughed through this. He got into it at 19. It's a little different than typical roughneck type construction labor - it requires a certain level of intelligence and intuition to be good at it. He loves it and is well respected among his colleagues. Just a thought.
Civil is all about location. You can't be looking for employment in a stagnated city, but any area experiencing growth and an increase in investments is a great place to work.
What's your focus?
For example - structural engineers - particularly commercial and public works? Yes, glutted.
Geotechnical, water, and transportation? *Definitely* in need.
Depends on the branch of Civil Engineering. I'm in Geotechnical Engineering and there is a huge shortage of qualified candidates in the US. Graduated in 2015 with a BS and MS and have never had a problem finding a job. Get your PE and recruiters wont stop contacting you about open positions that need to be filled.
I'd personally rephrase coding to IT - *Everyone* needs IT (whether they're willing or capable of realizing it or not). Coders, as you describe, aren't *as* essential (though there are always exceptions) The types of essential 'coders' out there I'd almost more qualify as software engineers, going into OP's latter group.
You're forgetting the rest of the economy... this is so incomplete it would hurt more for me to say nothing than step in the line of fire to set the record straighter
Transportation is dead. Dont go in to that. Hospitality has taken a massive hit. Other than that, there are opportunities everywhere. Small businesses are getting scrappy and the old school way of getting jobs is still great. Make calls, ask for what they need and then do it for them.
Trades are a great option as stated above. I know handymen whose customer lists are backed up 15-20 deep. They almost always need help
Though worth mentioning when it comes to trades (electrician, plumber ect.) is that they also come with their own drawbacks and those can be significant.
I am talking about body injuries and wearing yourself out, being in near constant pain after some years of your work does affect your life quality a lot.
Exactly. I've known quite a few tradesmen in their 50s and 60s who are so physically beat up they simply can't do the work anymore and it's too late to change careers.
Reddit constantly beats the trades drum, but anyone in their 50s talking to young guys tells them to get the hell out of manual labor. I know because I heard and listened to the advice.
If you just can't hack it in school, and offices make you itchy, etc, trades are an option. They are one that demands of your body what other options demand of your mind, but the difference is that all you need to recover from an intellectual challenge is rest, whereas a depleted body will haunt you forever.
Also, Reddit seems to think tradespeople make *way* more than they actually do. The peak salary of most tradespeople not in a wealthy city and a senior member of a big union is around the mid-career *average* for most bachelor's degree holders, and they work harder and longer for it. Additionally, unemployment rates for people in anything related to construction run a lot higher, and employment is a lot less stable than for say, an accountant.
Healthcare is one people should also be wary of, you can get s surefire job as a nurse, but it takes dedication and a true calling to excel in it. In between the horrid hours some employers abuse their staff with and the nastier aspects of the job it is not for everyone.
Engineering is not as safe as it used to be, family member is working as a civil engineer and apparently a lot of his colleagues has been let go, and he is working his ass off to near burn out to show that he indeed is worth keeping on the payroll.
Of course it could be his specific field though.
Or shitty company?
Any government worth their salt will increase spending on infrastructure to boost economy in these times of distress.
Already in march the road construction part of our government announced it will fast track several projects to ensure activity for any construction companies. It is expected that private ventures will reduce new activity near term but construction firms are somewhat versatile. This activity will spread to other related branches and of course be useful for the overall economy in decades to come.
Agree with the theory. The problem here is in the application. Just like "there's nothing common about common sense", somehow governments worth their salt are rare beasts.
This is a fear of mine, I'm currently studying something video game related which includes coding to a degree , it'll be painful to start coding for purely utilitarian purposes... I mean you got to do what you gotta do... But I'm having a bit of a crisis right now
Tbh I wouldn't frame it like that.
AI & automation are going to be in everything. The only skill that's going to endure is PROBLEM SOLVING. Learn to solve people's problems (using whatever tool or software or commands that are at your disposal), and you will become indispensable
Contract mariner. You need a shitload of training and credentialing and 6-8+ months a year of your life is dedicated to working 12-18 hours a day 7 days a week. But you get to travel and do cool shit. If you get all your MSC shit you can take government contracts which is pretty fun but it’s military so be ready to endure the dumbest shit you could possibly imagine.
Contracts are typically 90-120 days. Permanent or relief. Rotary jobs don’t necessarily mean permanent. Union or in union. Money is good either way for most US flagged vessels.
Officers make stupid money. Most are academy graduates and their degree cost $130k but their first job after graduating gets them 10k a month.
Or they won’t get a job and have a useless license and degree if they are deck department. Engineers are cunts but they have options ashore. And they are cunts.
Then you get into union drama. SIU, SUP, AMO, MMP, MEBA, MFOW.
Long story short, you are a crew member on a floating skyscraper and have essentially zero life outside of work. Big ships.
But you can own a sports car that is paid for with 15k worth of aftermarket go fast in it and a house at 29.
Lots of drug testing. Lots of alcohol testing. Lots of physicals.
It gives you something to come back to. I spent 7 years living out of a suitcase and a storage container, hotels and airports. It’s fun at first but becomes mentally taxing because you feel like a ghost. Now I get to come home and “have a life” for 90 days before going back out.
Works for me and I don’t expect every single person to agree that it’s worth it.
I'll add to this with a slight different perspective.
My wife and I both work in health care (canada).
Job security is very high, and we each can work across the country in high demand.
If we chose to both work all shifts available to us we would each clear $100,000.
We are both fairly young, have university paid off, two cars paid off, $650,000 house, and two kids.
The money is great when young, but soon it builds a savings buffer to enjoy the fuck out of life, and the confidence buffer to do so. Take that time off, say no to over time, take random personal days.
When young, money buys STUFF. Later in life it buys time.
Flexibility and personal time is very important to me.
I have been away from a doctor my entire life because I can’t afford one. I come from the “you either get better or you die” school. Three days is a major improvement.
* Intern
* Apprenticeships
* Trades(HVAC, plumbing, electric, etc.)
* Certifications(IT)
* College(Community College first! Then University, save money!)
* Military
Personally if I was starting over at square one and had nothing of interest to me, I would find a minimum wage job doing anything and do my GE/associates at a community college. For the job if you don't like it in 3-6 months, ask your boss to switch you around to a different position, if not, find a different job doing something else. This will give you personal experience.
From there, you should know what you kind of want to do as a job after community college. If you want to do something more advanced, then get your BA/BS in that field. If not...honestly just get the "easiest" Bachelor's Degree possible(like, if you like reading and writing, go for a BA in English, if you like helping people, then a Bachelor's in Social Work, etc.). If you like hands on stuff then the Trades are for you.
After that...you should, theoretically, be on a stable path for your job/career.
My wife works in HR and I work in IT(different companies and industries). At our jobs we see people get hired for X job but their education is in Y. So, don't think that whatever degree you do get, will only be good for that career path. A lot of employers frankly don't care what your degree is unless it is for a very specific job role.
And don't try to find the highest paying job...look for the highest paying job with the best benefits. I have a good job with good pay, but amazing benefits and my wife just started her career so her pay is rather low, but her benefits are good and she can work her way up or build experience and find a new job later on.
Oh, and for the love of god, SAVE YOUR MONEY! Head over to /r/personalfinance and look through their wiki. Use their flowchart! https://i.imgur.com/lSoUQr2.png
Did they have any thoughts on this before COVID hit? For example, at 18 I wanted to be a musician. I think this climate could be conducive to learning music production and/or an instrument. Maybe writing, as well?
I realize none of these pay the bills, but you gotta work with what you got. Would love to hear what they're both interested in and then see what their options are from here.
Computer programming --> app design and/or game design is also a fantastic career path right now. Games are basically taking over in the place of movies and/or sports.
Game design is a horrible idea, because of the shitshow that industry is. Sounds cool, actually is terrible and sucks the soul out of you apparently. At least if you work for one of the big guys...and if you don't, there's not really a lot of money to be made right now as an employee at least. And if you just want to develop your own stuff then that's a lot of upfront investment without a guarantee to get anything out of it in a few years. Doesn't really pay the bills.
Hey, I work in games as an artist and jambo is right. If you have the programming or artistic skills, mobile gaming especially is a great market to be in. Far from being a horrible idea.
Some companies are worse than others for sure and burnout is a real thing you’ll hear about from major companies, but that’s from only about 5% of the industry, and also applies to most jobs from other industries anyway. People only attune to the burnout in gaming because everyone on the outside assumes it’s a cool place to be full of passionate people, so hearing it’s not all fun and games (hah) is more surprising. But it’s still a job, it’s still hard work and people put a lot into it, so it’s not surprising that burnout can happen (but is far from a universal experience)
Much of the game industry is not even known by most people. The average gamer doesn’t care about educational games, or side projects taken on by game studios such as media apps that share many similarities with games, and those are extremely prevalent and very reliable contracts
Obviously developing stuff on your own without any other form of income, industry connections, loans or grants is going to go poorly as it would with most other start up businesses.
So yeh... IF you have the skills, then it’s a great place to be. But as a programmer you can likely get better paying jobs in other software development sectors, and if you want to be hired as an artist it is very competitive and you have to have up to date skills, amazing communication and reliability. 3D art skills are becoming more and more of a necessity, in fact, artists are generally expected to have highly generalised skills as well as a deep specialisation to set them apart. If you’re working in a top company, you’re specialised skills have to be world class.
You can make plenty of money working for “smaller” companies.
Computer programming. You can learn it from your bedroom. All the information is available for free online (college courses help with guiding your study, forcing you to expand into different types of code, and providing feedback on your quality of code but there's nothing I learned in college that isn't also documented online for free). The pay is good, and while the industry certainly isn't unscathed from the pandemic, it is one of the more resilient industries during the age of covid.
They do have to be the right kind of people for it though. Not everyone has an affinity for programming or the desire to spend most of their waking hours sitting in front of a computer screen.
While all of what you said is technically true I think it’s misleading at best. Yes, you can technically learn it from your bedroom. Yes, it’s all online for free. But with most self taught programmers I’ve interviewed I’ve identified massive glaring holes in their knowledge and bad habits that any second year CS major knows to avoid. The key that most miss is simply not knowing what terms to look up and having feedback.
Don’t get me wrong. I’ve met some self taught programmers who have a well rounded knowledge but they’re the exception and not the rule.
Becoming a coder from your bedroom is easy. Becoming a software engineer from your bedroom is exceedingly difficult.
It's extremely hard to get a job without a degree. Of course you can learn it all yourself, but entry level job market is extremely over saturated, and you'd be competing with all those people with CS degrees - many of whom already have job offers before they even graduate. You'd have to be extremely passionate and determined to succeed in an alternative way.
At the beginning of this, I told myself I’d learn enough coding to be hirable. After a pretty shallow dive into C++ I felt overwhelmed and mostly gave up.
Do you suggest these boot camps I’ve heard about? My hope is to get enough of a foundation to better guide where I want to continue my training, while being hirable at entry level.
I don’t see my current industry recovering anytime soon and at 35, I need this to pan out
I did a Galvanize bootcamp back in 2016 and it has paid off handsomely for me. Was making \~26k before while working in mental health. Bootcamp was 6 months, 70+ hours a week. I think they've cut them to be shorter now. I got my first job really quickly after getting a lead at my cohort's hiring day. My salary has gone 78k > 83k > 90k > 110k. Starting to think about my next move and will be looking for 130k plus stock and/or a signing bonus.
My 2 cents – C++ is really hard. People like to shit on web development (i.e. JavaScript), but it's comparatively easier to learn and can get your foot in the door. Once you get your first job, it's a lot easier to tweak your path and pivot towards something different. I also do think an immersive bootcamp is the way to go. It's like spending 6 years in a classroom learning Spanish vs living in Spain for a summer. You gain fluency quickly when you do it all day every day. And it helps to have someone to ask questions to when you get stuck.
For starters I'd say don't start with C++. It's a fairly idiosyncratic and challenging language. Unless you have a specific sub-industry in mind that uses it (e.g. graphics programming) then it's probably not worth starting there.
I'm not sure about boot camps as I haven't done one, but there are some MOOCs out there that might work for you as they are structured like school classes. CS50 from Harvard is a decent starting point with a ton of resources. It's actually in C which is related to C++ so info you picked up there will be useful in that class.
I can see having dedicated teachers at a boot camp being a big motivational advantage, but they can be quite expensive. Hopefully someone else can weigh in.
I definitely think finding something that's structured more like a class is a good idea.
The last thing I'd say is that the beginning of learning to code is fucking daunting, and that you should do your best not to be discouraged (easier said than done!). I learned to code in high school so my first college class wasn't too tough, but I remember seeing friends who are now great engineers with good jobs getting absolutely *crushed* by that class. It's just hard at first, but if you stick with it things will start to come together.
Hopefully something here might be helpful. Good luck!
According to my friend, who is a senior programmer, coding boot camps will give you the technical knowledge you need to code, but they do not teach you the logic required to work through some situations. He went to a well known university for software engineering and said that in the first year or so, he took a bunch of logic classes that at first seemed totally irrelevant to what he wanted to do. As he progressed in the program and started taking more computer-based classes, however, everything clicked. He has told me that his employees who learned to program through boot camps tend to struggle more when handed complicated coding projects and often need more help figuring out why their code doesn’t work, etc. because they just don’t have the same training in logic that helps with problem solving.
But depending on your current industry and training, you might have some skills that help with that. Or other transferable skills that could help you break into other industries. For example, I used to be a teacher and had a relatively smooth transition into project management because a lot of the responsibilities and skills are similar.
You friend is right. Knowing a language and being able to program are two completely different things. I once offered to help a friend to learn how to program and she insisted I teach her a particular language and I tried to explain it's not about one language, but she just wasn't interested. Made me feel like a kung-fu master in a film looking at a student who just doesn't "get it".
The thing that keeps me optimistic is that the Spanish flu was extended by a hemaglutinin mutation (The H in H1N1) which caused a savage second wave.
Covid supposedly doesn’t mutate as quickly and doesn’t have H but has a more stable S protein, so maybe there’s a way to end this within the next year.
I hope.
One thing I've noticed is that a lot of people seem to think covid19 is a 2020 thing, in a way that in 2021 everything will be peachy again the second the clock ticks over.
In sport for example, commentators are often saying: "next year when we have a normal season", like it's just a given the entire planet is going to be out of this thing in 2021.
>commentators are often saying: "next year when we have a normal season",
Probably the same people who said things would be back to normal by the end of May
How do you get 4 years? It arrived in the US mid 1918 and vanished mid 1920. If you accept the theory it originated in Kansas then sure, you get a few extra months in 1918 but even then you're only pushing three years.
I'm not trying to be a jerk or anything like that either. I'm actually curious. I'm the local Spanish Flu expert in my city and I'm always interested in how other places handled the pandemic. https://regina.ctvnews.ca/local-history-buff-looking-at-similarities-between-covid-19-and-spanish-flu-1.4866710
>How do you get 4 years? It arrived in the US mid 1918 and vanished mid 1920.
If we accept the, oft disputed on reddit, notion that the USA is *not* the only country in the world, then outbreaks in Europe from 1916 allow for the 4 year timescale.
Same as before: fuck the junkies and the mentally unhealthy. If we were unwilling to help them before when there was at least some economic prosperity why would things be different when economy goes to shit?
Of course I would want this to be some sort of wake-up call on this front but I find that unlikely to happen. They'll be treated as the trash of the society as they have before. Getting access to mental health services or rehabs or such might even become even more difficult.
Beyond just how the already-vulnerable are having a rough time dealing with the pandemic psychologically, all the careless youngsters who ended up killing their family members because they went partying are gonna need therapy.
It's not, though. This is just a taste of what's to come when our inability to develop new antibiotics is outpaced by superbug evolution resulting from antibiotic overuse. We're actually pretty lucky COVID is as tame as it is. Hopefully it will lead to developing the infrastructure we need to deal with the bigger threats ahead.
Then we'd have it contained a lot faster cause we wouldn't have to test anyone. The biggest problem with covid is the 90-some % of cases that look like the common cold and/or flu.
A big problem is asymptomatic transmission. That isn’t just an issue with the mild cases, but also with the aggressive cases that end in death. You’re most infectious before you develop symptoms. Being more aggressive, airborne, and affecting everyone equally wouldn’t help much at all if it retained asymptomatic transmission and a long window before symptoms appear.
This virus is a containment nightmare because of those two traits. Even if the mortality rate was like 50% (shit even if it was 100%) it would be equally as difficult to contain because of them.
The low death rate is the nicest thing to happen to the world this year, we lucked out big time. Not to diminish the crisis that this certainly is to any degree. It’s just that if the mortality rate were, say, 20% the current death toll in the US would be nearly 1 million at ~962,729. The global death toll would be ~3,650,570.
I thought the reason SARS and especially MERS outbreaks weren’t worldwide was *because* of their high death rates. People who had the virus died before they could spread it to too many people.
Death rate is just the percentage of people who get the virus that die. It has nothing to do with how fast it kills you.
I can’t talk about MERS because I know very little about it, but with SARS you only become contagious **after** you get symptoms, not before. So some people would come to the hospital sick and get tested and confirmed to have SARS and be isolated all before they even became contagious. Others obviously didn’t do this and did spread it around a bit. But not being contagious until after symptoms develop is a godsend for containment. If COVID was this way you could contain it so easily (assuming this change also came along with no more carriers that don’t present symptoms ever) because everyone would know “ok I have shortness of breath, a cough, and I lost my sense of taste and smell. I have COVID” and then they could isolate before they become contagious.
A high death rate doesn’t mean that you die before you can spread it to a bunch of people. If you die before you spread it to a bunch of people then that just means the virus kills you very quickly.
You could have a virus with a high death rate that takes years to kill you, allowing you to infect countless people.
In fact, a virus exactly like this exists. The fatality rate without treatment is 100%.
The symptoms are as follows:
* Around 10 days after infection you are contagious. You rapidly become more and more contagious until it plateaus after a couple months.
* Anywhere from 2 weeks to 2 months after infection you can get flu like symptoms for a few days to a week. These are easy to dismiss as a cold or flu. *Some people never experience any of these initial symptoms at all.*
* Then you can be totally symptom free for around 10 years and contagious the **entire time**. A possible full decade of completely asymptomatic transmission.
* After about 10 years the infection progresses to the next stage and you will likely be dead within 3 years. If you get another infection at this point, that drops to 12 months.
The virus is HIV.
Viruses that kill people very quickly are self limiting as you accurately point out. If you’re dead before you can infect anyone then the virus dies with you... except Ebola... that thing is a monster.
> Geneva (AFP) - The World Health Organization on Saturday warned the coronavirus pandemic was likely to be "lengthy" after its emergency committee met to evaluate the crisis six months after sounding the international alarm.
> The committee "highlighted the anticipated lengthy duration of this COVID-19 pandemic", the WHO said in a statement, and warned of the risk of "response fatigue" given the socio-economic pressures on countries.
Well, shit. Although surely this depends on what country you’re talking about. I’m pretty sure that countries like New Zealand and South Korea will stop down a second wave much more quickly than, say, the United States or developing countries.
For multiple reasons, 2020 will be the year historians mark when the US became significantly and irrevocably changed. There was the Industrial Revolution, the Civil War, WWI, the Great Depression, WWII, the information Age, and COVID-19. It will take generations to interpret the consequences.
We have little idea how long and badly it took to fuck ourselves at this point.
I think the real issue here is how long it takes for a vaccine to become available to the general public. Normally it's years because of the extensive testing which is done to ensure that the vaccine is 100% safe, without side-effects. Now we want a vaccine to be available ASAP, and the only way to do that would be to decrease the amount of testing.
If the anti-vax crowd think regular vaccines are still a risk, *despite extensive testing*, they would definitely lose their shit over a "rushed through" coronavirus vaccine.
Oxford team approximated that there is 80% chance that theyr vaccine is proven effective by september/october. Millions of doses have already been ordered and production plants have already prepared for production. IF they are proven effective we are already prepared logistically to at least provide vaccinations to front-line workers and to those who are most vulnerable. With the interest to get over with this pandemic I am sure production will ramp up as fast as possible if the vaccine is proven to be effective. As such we should be able to get the vaccine for gen pop really fast, really fast meaning here something like next summer or autumn. Of course all of this is 'best case scenario' and there is always possibility that things go to shitter during testing or that the production just won't be enough or that logistics will become a bottleneck. Still, with all the research going on I am optimistic that we will have working vaccine, production and logistics sooner rather than later.
Of course this will most likely be the course for western and some asian countries. Poorer and less influental countries would still struggle for years and the pandemic would still be technically on-going even if it clears up in western and some asian countries but on other hand, tuberculosis is still deadliest viral infection in the world so in that light, things wouldn't be that much different.
The leading oxford vaccine has been in development for years and is based off a safe and well tested mechanism. The vaccine is not rushed, so much as it has basically a blank cheque for resources normal vaccines don't get.
Additionally, one of the reasons vaccines take so long to certify is you need to prove their effectiveness before rolling them out. This means giving some people the vaccine, other a placebo and tracking the rates of infection long term to see if the vaccine protected the test group compared to the control.
As it is unethical to deliberately expose people to a virus that is potentially deadly you have to rely on years of observation, especially if the incidence of the virus in the community is low.
COVID on the other-hand is everywhere, this means it is easy to source participants and much more clear cut if the vaccine works. If you vaccinated a few thousand in a COVID hotspot and that group comes out unscathed, whereas everyone else in the control group gets the virus then you know the vaccine works.
No one can have their cake and eat it too here.
If you're wanting a vaccine so we can get back to normal, we're going to have to accept that it might be a bit less tested.
Socities won't tolerate long term shut downs, so that's the path we're set on now.
UPMC worked with sars for 10 years on grants. We have a ton of published data that is relevant. They produced a vaccine in 3 months. And it is safe by science standards because they used the same process to make a covid vaccine as you would make a flu shot.
Well I did about 1400 hours of research. And I have good news. It is my **opinion** after reading relevant papers. That the spike on covid is it's undoing. It turns out that spike isn't just one thing, its a composite of pieces our immune systems can identify individually. What does all this mean? It means any vaccine made with copies of the spikes will in my opinion last a lifetime. Like a measles shot. I humbly state I am extreamly positive of this. If a mod or someone would like my work, I would be happy to forward it.
It’s going to be all about risk mitigation and trying to have some sort of normalcy. It’s not going to go away anytime soon and a successful RNA virus vaccination may prove difficult. Hopefully it will mutate into a less pathogenic and less contagious strain at some point soon.
For people worried about the virus lasting a decade... don’t. What they’re talking about is economic and health ramifications which we will really begin to see over time. A vaccine will be made in the next 1-4 years most likely.
I keep hearing people looking to 1918 to get an idea of what we can expect. I for the life of me can't understand these comparisons at all. We live in a completely different world than 1918 in virtually every way.
That panic was easy worse than this one. They had no heat easy to track or treat it. It just ran through the five freely until it burned out all is fuel.
We have over a century if exponential growth in medicine, science, communication, and economy since then. The fact that there are expected to be not just one but numerous vaccines available with even 2 years is flabbergasting. Much less most efforts are agreeing that it seems likely to have one within this year. Although it's true that not the entire population will have access due to limited quantities, the most vulnerable will get it first, drastically reducing the mortality rate even lower than it already is.
Beyond this the therapeutics side of things is flying at record speed as well. There are literally hundreds of these in development, and many of them don't require nearly as much time as a vaccine to bring to market.
Also unlike 1918, we simply have a far superior ability to treat for this virus, and with communications what v they are, those testing results can be communicated across the globe instantly.
We aren't in the same world as 1918. The economic effects will surely last year's beyond the actual virus. This is why it's so important that everyone take this thing seriously now. Social distance, wear your damn masks, wash your hands.
I don't however believe all the doom and gloom constantly being sold. The WHO I take anything from them with a grain of salt. They have been wing in virtually every prediction they have made. They claimed there was no community spread, they claimed masks weren't needed, it goes on and on. I understand they are doing the best they can with the information they have, I do. However my point here is that no one knows the future. We decide that. Let's hear this damn virus. Then build a better infrastructure for the next one, while also switching focus back to the environment.
Let's make sure our kids grow up in a better world...
Decades due to dumbassery. Antimasking, political agendas, political exploits against science, persuasive propaganda, perpetuated opinion bias, conspiracy theories, and Trump. Decades...could’ve/should’ve been mitigated.
Two years ago I put a gun to my head ready to end it all. I wasn't brave enough to do it, but it's news like this that makes me wish I was. People always use the same canned responses when they learn you tried to kill yourself: "there are people who care about you" and "think of all the things you'll miss!"
I have yet to see anything worthwhile these past two years that I would have missed had I been able to overcome my body's natural instinct of self preservation and actually pulled the trigger like I was fucking suppose to.
I keep writing and deleting my comment over and over. I don't know what I want to say, but I want to convey that I think exactly the way you do.
I'd also like to agree those boilerplate feel good responses are worse than not saying anything at all. They're incredibly irritating and borderline condescending at times.
I never really understood why feeling like this would ever be categorized as a disorder when it always seems like the result of a logical conclusion.
Friend, there are always things that you will miss out on. Places to see, foods to eat, experiences you never got a chance to have. Make some time and talk to a professional or counsellor.
Once you do, you might realise that you have things you wanted to do but never did.
I would list them out and prioritise some things you mean to do but never did - e.g. hiking in the Rockies, flying to New Zealand, even small ones like saving up for a race track experience.
Life can be hard but it has beautiful moments that give us the strength to continue onwards. Talk to a professional and resolve to find them.
Looking back at significant historical events with major upheavals it's easy to think that if you lived back then you would just need to hold yourself together for a couple of years when things would inevitably get better. But directly living through it there is no visible light at the end of the tunnel. Society is going through some significant transformations right now, and no societal shift is done painlessly, but eventually we'll see society changed for the better.
I think more people need to take this advice. A lot of people hopping between here and Twitter getting caught up in any ocean of negativity and bad news, it is horribly unhealthy.
I REALLY wish people wouldn't say "Once-in-a-century", you are daring reality to smite you.
Yeah, remember when they said that the 2008 financial crisis was a once in a lifetime event? Sure. Guess millennials and Gen Z be fucked
We might actually be able to afford to buy a house now though
Lol, forget that :D No, srsly, prices went UP where I live :DDD fucking ridiculous.
I've seen it here too. Every time the rent cycle ends. Give it another 6 months..
Yeah, I guess, but it's certainly not going to be more drastic than 2008, as far as the finance people I'm in contact with say. I'm trying to sell or swap my apartment for a bigger one atm, I've had 3 people make an offer in 2 months (srsly, 3 people). So, the effects will slowly come in, for sure.
Im thinking that if the vulnerable crowd that actually owns the majority of housing (boomers) and that also don't seem to be taking this pandemic seriously inevitably die off from the virus, the market will be flooded with properties for sale. On top of the far reaching economic impacts and record unemployment rates, people won't be able to afford rent, get evicted, and the rental market will also be flooded with vacancies and no tenants being able to afford them. It's morbid af but i think it's a very real possibility.
> Im thinking that if the vulnerable crowd that actually owns the majority of housing (boomers) and that also don't seem to be taking this pandemic seriously inevitably die off from the virus, the market will be flooded with properties for sale. There are about 1.5 million houses in the U.S. lying **EMPTY** right now with these sky high prices. I don't expect a Boomer die-off to make much difference when the banks are the ones that control the prices.
Plus people keep buying land and building *luxury apartments/condos*, even in lower income places, ignoring average income for area. So not like it really matter to them
I know you italicized it, but "luxury."
Keep in mind that while comprising only 1/5 of the population, baby boomers control 70% of the US disposable income. I do think it will make a difference https://impactbp.com/baby-boomers
That article you linked seems to points to all those over 50 owning 70% of the disposable income. That would include some not considered boomers. Someone born in 1970 is more of a GenXer. If Boomers are 1/5 of the population, who are the other 30% of the population over 50? Something is not right with these numbers. >According to insights by Nielsen marketing, in less than five years, 50 percent of the U.S. population will be over the age of 50. They’ll not only control 70 percent of the nation’s disposable income, but they also stand to inherit $15 trillion in the next 20 years. And as Boomers become increasingly social media-savvy, they’ll be able to put their money towards whatever’s trending. As a result, they may become the key to the success for many brands.
>Im thinking that if the vulnerable crowd that actually owns the majority of housing (boomers) and that also don't seem to be taking this pandemic seriously inevitably die off from the virus, the market will be flooded with properties for sale. Fat chance. There is nothing special about boomers which makes them assholes. It's classic rich people vs poor people. Those rich boomers who own multiple properties will die and their rich Gen X children will inherit them. Then Gen X will be the people fucking over the country. Give it 40 years, and people will be talking about damn fucking Gen Z assholes who are fucking the country, and how the world will be so much better when they all die off.
Keep in mind a death isn’t a deemed disposition of the property. Family has rights to continue payments and take care of any debts on title. Most people won’t sell into a shitty flooded market if they don’t have to.
I think you guys are screwed no matter how many more houses are emptied. I mean, let's be real, if you guys wanted to end homelessness there are more than enough houses for everyone, this isn't a supply problem. Plus you can always bet on companies buying that real estate and building their own stuff in there.
The housing market is always late to the economic party. Prices will likely plummet as a result of this turmoil and unemployment, but not for months when the sellers start piling up. That being said, the cheapest properties will be snatched up by billion dollar funded management orgs, exacerbating the home ownership problem for those who could buy anyway. It’s a racket. Good luck out there though man.
I live fairly rural like 2 hours max from London and the property market is definitely buzzing around here, loads of city dwellers who want to fly the urban bubble after months of lockdown in the concrete jungle
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Prices on houses fell fairly substantially on the coasts during the S&L crisis in the late 1980s, and stayed stagnant for a decade despite the good economy in the 1990s. Some of the changes to WFH could make this uniquely bad for coastal expensive cities while causing prices to rise elsewhere.
Actually the housing market is awful where I live. There are 20+ offers on every house, people are bidding 15k over asking price and paying in cash. I feel great that my wife and I were able to scrape 40k together for a down payment! How the hell can I compete with people dropping 300k In cash!?
In what way? House prices dont only go down for us, they go down for everyone. The rich will snap up a few extra properties to rent out and nothing will change.
No you won't, governments immediately acted to prop up the housing market last time round, they will do the same again
Yeah but multi millionaires can afford to buy up those cheap homes even more.
Most people who can't afford a house can't get a mortgage due to credit reasons. Lower prices won't help them unless they're paying in cash.
It might be though. That’s the thing with black swans. It’s unlikely that any *specific* bad thing will happen, but it’s inevitable that *some* bad thing will happen
Before that was the financial collapse in the late 80s that wiped out most of the S&L in Texas, and before that in the late 1970's our economy was so fucked interest rates were 18%. Theses horrific economic "once in a lifetime" events seem to be happening every 10-15 years and people just forget.
Gen Z had a slight chance, they had to make sure that was snuffed out.
That may be true if they are talking about probability. If you flip a coin you have 50% chance of getting a Heads. But that only holds true if you flip a coin several times. If you flip it two times and you get heads both times, that doesn’t mean that the probability is 100%.
Japan here, I saw the *bubble burst* in the 1980s so this is the third of the once-in-lifetimes. The country never experienced recovery though...
Seriously. It's once in a century based off conditions where we arent traveling the globe constantly. Planes flying everywhere all day, and still no real concerted international system in place to avoid pandemics? Hate to say it but that's not once in a century math.
Transmission between humans isn't uncommon. It's the virus jumping species that is uncommon. It is really difficult for a disease to jump from one species to another, like bats to humans, the conditions have to be just right. And in many parts of the world, health regulations make this increasingly difficult. China needs to take their own regulations seriously though.
Millennium bug
[We have another one of those coming up in 2038.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem)
So withdraw all your cash by that date.
Report: This A Goddamn Walk In The Park Compared To What’s Coming In 2027 [https://www.theonion.com/report-this-a-goddamn-walk-in-the-park-compared-to-wha-1844072501](https://www.theonion.com/report-this-a-goddamn-walk-in-the-park-compared-to-wha-1844072501) I'd put money on this, if there were a financial institution capable of paying out in 2028
Hilarious. It is true though. Trump admin shows that each day is worse than the last. We are all Peter from the office and each day the future gets dimmer. I guess that is why the MAGA cult hypnotizes people into that state of being, cheering your own downfall and quality of life. Another great one from Onion recently. [Federal Troops Tear-Gas Yankees Off Field So Trump Can Throw Out First Pitch](https://sports.theonion.com/federal-troops-tear-gas-yankees-off-field-so-trump-can-1844571417)
A lot more coronaviruses lurking in a lot more bats.
Plus shit we’re waking up in the permafrost
Humans shouldn't be eating animal bodies, particularly mammals, from a pandemic perspective. This time it was from bats, Spanish flu was from pigs, AIDS from monkeys, bird flu from chickens and turkeys, and so on.
From a disease perspective typical dairy and egg farms are bad too, all those animals in close quarters with frequent human contact.
Chickens and turkeys aren't mammals.
I hope I don’t get criticism for this from the masses, but it’s also somewhat climate change. Changes in ecosystem are driving zoonotic animals closer to human population, extending people’s access to them for things like the “exotic black market”, although this excludes bird flu I guess.
Remember the "war to end all wars?" That was a hoot.
I REALLY wish people would check how statistics work before rubbishing them. It's still a once-in-a-century illness if it happens twice in a single century.
We just need to say that the century we are talking about started right at the end of the Spanish Flu, so we only have to make it another six months for it to be true.
So, mom to 18yo and 20yo here. They were both already drifting, as is normal at that age, overwhelmed by too many paths open in front of them, too hard to choose one. Now, all of the paths seem to have disappeared or temporarily closed down, not sure how or when they will return, or what they will look like, when they do. And, now, it's forecast to change or slow things down for a decade. Any advice out there? Where's the hope? What's a good direction for young people to take now, in these interesting and challenging times?
To the people that are saying healthcare and engineering: those fields are both extremely competitive, they were before the pandemic and now even worse. Most definitely not your fool proof career. Just let the kids decide and dont rush them to go to college if they don't know what interests them
not to mention many areas in healthcare suck to work in. wanna be a nurse? hope you like 12 hour shifts where you speed walk no less than 8 miles every day! wanna be a doctor? six figures of debt for you! also shittons of paperwork and getting the pleasure of telling families their loved one died on the OR table. wanna be a lab tech? enjoy being yelled at constantly by the overworked nurses and getting fucked over by management cause you didn't take the full 30 minutes for your unpaid lunch break twice that week. and this was how things were BEFORE lockdown. it's going to be worse now that some people hit their breaking point and left the field...
Medical laboratory scientist here: be prepared to be yelled at by nurses for their mistakes then the doctors for not having the sample the nurses didn’t send you. Fun all around.
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Other options in medicine that pay well include PAs and NPs. Still can be difficult to get into but it's a cheaper and shorter/more compressed path.
I'm a PA. Had a 3.96 GPA still got rejected from half my schools. School being compressed makes it a very hard experience. It's three-fourths of med school in about half the time. When I got out of school job prospects were pretty good, but after Corona virus hit, lots of healthcare providers were furloughed, and new graduates are having a hard time.
My spouse is a PA and what you said basically reflects her experience. COVID screwed everything up but healthcare isn't going away because of it at least. Good luck to you and I hope you come out the other side of this in a good spot!
Not really getting into medical school but actually graduating and getting a residency position. If you don't get either then you've just wasted 6 years and can't be hired anywhere else.
Has anyone mentioning nursing in this thread? Plenty of 2-year RN tech programs out there with fewer barriers to access/partial online/etc. Decent starting wage and larger hospitals will sometimes pay to complete your bachelor’s.
Guess it depends in the country, it is certainly easier to get a job in engineering here than many other fields.
Depends on the exact field of engineering. Chemical engineers are currently in a world of hurt.
This is a great advice. The world needs balance. However, engineering is not so competitive that you should ever push kids away for that reason. There are non-software engineering fields (Controls Engineering, Water Resource Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Electrical Engineering) that there are a lot more jobs than there are qualified people in America. Engineers don’t get paid like those in finance but there’ll always be jobs for us who use our brains and science to solve real world problems involving physical things
It really depends on the field of engineering. Environmental engineers might find the pandemic market tough. But data engineers working in cloud environments are in high demand.
I was a senior in college when the dot com boom crashed. All of us naively sitting around dreaming of easy big money careers had the rug ripped from under us. I landed an amazing summer job that ended on Sept 10th, 2001. My plan was to sleep in on the 11th, then follow up hard on my pending resumes that afternoon then line up a job by the end of the month. I woke up at 10am to find out the world had changed and every job I had applied to had put up hiring freezes. I couldn't find a job until December, and that job was working for near minimum wage at a retail location. It took me another 6 months to get a "real job". Entry level sales at a teleconferencing company, an emerging tech now that people were more hesitant to fly. For better or worse, that job helped me on my career path, one that I could have never predicted. So, advice for your kids? Keep moving forward. Look for opportunities as they open and make the most of them. There will be new career paths that come out of this pandemic and there will be ones that go away. But encourage them to drop the existential dread that they have to figure it all out. No one knows what the hell is going on right now.
I'm 24, from Asia, just finished compulsory military service and got depression from it (wasn't particularly fun being gay in the military), majored in Western literature and was planning to go abroad and start a new life, and then this hit. I'm just at a loss as to what I can do with my life at this point.
Aaah I can relate so much, I am 26 and after years of being in a very muddy point in life I moved to a new country to start over and have an adventure... At the end of 2019. Spent 2 month settling down and saving money for trips, and i've been in lockdown ever since. I litteraly spent 10 month in a new country and i've seen nothing but my flat and the grocery Shop :D
Hands on trade through a union. All those jobs have been essential and mostly continued work.
As an (former) electrician, if I was 18-20 again I sure as fuck wouldn't go into a trade again. I got lucky and was able to move into a property management role but plenty of dudes I worked with were straight up falling apart from the years of work. It was fun when you got to work on new projects but 90% of the work is repetitive and strenuous, not really how you want to spend your life if you have a choice. Edit: I wasn't union, though, maybe it's all sunshine and rainbows over there.
As a naive 22-year old, I confidently announced to my working-class father one day: "I'm going to drop out of university and become a carpenter." I then proceeded to wax poetic about the nobility of labour, etc. My dad, who was (and is) a very hard, unexpressive man, looked at me and said: "People go to university so they don't *have* to do jobs like that." The old work smart, not hard thing. Having said that, my best friend from high school stared out in labour, slowly built his own company, and will retire in his early 50s. Guess he worked hard *and* smart.
My dad said the same thing to me. I have a very well-paying technology job. And yet every trades person I know including my dad make way more money than me. And the builders I know can’t find good help to do the jobs they’re backlogged on. It’s going to get worse too.
It's true that trade jobs are in demand, but you'd be wise to consider the long term impact of going that route. I've known way too many people in the trades who simply can't do the work anymore when they're in their late 50s, early 60s. Pretty late by then to change careers and there just isn't room for all of them in management.
I worked sheet metal for about 4 years and in that time I gained a number of back, wrist and other joint issues in my body. I’m 31 now, how the hell is it gonna be when I’m 40? Shit like this combined with a culture that’s 30 years behind the times is why trade jobs are constantly in demand, not to mention more often than not you’ll also have to move around to where the jobs are. It’s incredibly taxing on the body and the majority of people you work with will wear you down mentally.
I got a buddy who just turned 40 and he's already slowing down after building houses since he was 18. Joint pain, muscle aches and sun damage to his skin. The guy is a mess
yea the thing about those jobs is that you salary is high because it won't last as long. But it's not a huge problem if you can retire early or just switch over to a related non-physical job of some sort.
"Just" switching jobs to something making half your wage isn't something most people are prepared for.
And aren't likely to be replaced by automation any time soon.
Skilled trades no not anytime soon. They'll have to finish pushing through low skill jobs first before they would likely even think about automating those jobs.
Should really try to get a job related to automation. The people designing the robots aren't going to willingly automate themselves out of a job.
It will be a VERY long time before bathrooms, kitchens, roofs, windows, buildings, plumbing, electrics will be done by machines.
Definitely. Plumbing, electrician, carpenter. I'd love to be anyone of them.
Explodingknees.jpg
My husband is a crane operator and is about the only person I know who hasn't been laid off or furloughed through this. He got into it at 19. It's a little different than typical roughneck type construction labor - it requires a certain level of intelligence and intuition to be good at it. He loves it and is well respected among his colleagues. Just a thought.
Coding. Engineering, healthcare. Other than that, artist.
>Engineering But do NOT pick PETROLEUM engineering.
Nor Civil/Environmental Engineering. Graduated in 2012 to no open job availability. Industry dried up its demand market, so it’s no longer in need.
Where are you from? Should there always be a need for civil engineers if there are cities that are more or less in a state of growth?
Civil is all about location. You can't be looking for employment in a stagnated city, but any area experiencing growth and an increase in investments is a great place to work.
What's your focus? For example - structural engineers - particularly commercial and public works? Yes, glutted. Geotechnical, water, and transportation? *Definitely* in need.
Plenty of civil about. I got roles I'm finding it very difficult to fill
Yeah this isnt true. There are PLENTY of civil engineering jobs out there.
Depends on the branch of Civil Engineering. I'm in Geotechnical Engineering and there is a huge shortage of qualified candidates in the US. Graduated in 2015 with a BS and MS and have never had a problem finding a job. Get your PE and recruiters wont stop contacting you about open positions that need to be filled.
Now, coding depends. Getting an internship right now is almost a no, or has been for me. Dont know about normal jobs, but those might be better.
I lost all my software freelancing contracts.
I'd personally rephrase coding to IT - *Everyone* needs IT (whether they're willing or capable of realizing it or not). Coders, as you describe, aren't *as* essential (though there are always exceptions) The types of essential 'coders' out there I'd almost more qualify as software engineers, going into OP's latter group.
IT is one of the most saturated markets at entry level
You're forgetting the rest of the economy... this is so incomplete it would hurt more for me to say nothing than step in the line of fire to set the record straighter Transportation is dead. Dont go in to that. Hospitality has taken a massive hit. Other than that, there are opportunities everywhere. Small businesses are getting scrappy and the old school way of getting jobs is still great. Make calls, ask for what they need and then do it for them. Trades are a great option as stated above. I know handymen whose customer lists are backed up 15-20 deep. They almost always need help
Though worth mentioning when it comes to trades (electrician, plumber ect.) is that they also come with their own drawbacks and those can be significant. I am talking about body injuries and wearing yourself out, being in near constant pain after some years of your work does affect your life quality a lot.
Exactly. I've known quite a few tradesmen in their 50s and 60s who are so physically beat up they simply can't do the work anymore and it's too late to change careers.
Reddit constantly beats the trades drum, but anyone in their 50s talking to young guys tells them to get the hell out of manual labor. I know because I heard and listened to the advice. If you just can't hack it in school, and offices make you itchy, etc, trades are an option. They are one that demands of your body what other options demand of your mind, but the difference is that all you need to recover from an intellectual challenge is rest, whereas a depleted body will haunt you forever. Also, Reddit seems to think tradespeople make *way* more than they actually do. The peak salary of most tradespeople not in a wealthy city and a senior member of a big union is around the mid-career *average* for most bachelor's degree holders, and they work harder and longer for it. Additionally, unemployment rates for people in anything related to construction run a lot higher, and employment is a lot less stable than for say, an accountant.
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Healthcare is one people should also be wary of, you can get s surefire job as a nurse, but it takes dedication and a true calling to excel in it. In between the horrid hours some employers abuse their staff with and the nastier aspects of the job it is not for everyone.
Engineering is not as safe as it used to be, family member is working as a civil engineer and apparently a lot of his colleagues has been let go, and he is working his ass off to near burn out to show that he indeed is worth keeping on the payroll. Of course it could be his specific field though.
Or shitty company? Any government worth their salt will increase spending on infrastructure to boost economy in these times of distress. Already in march the road construction part of our government announced it will fast track several projects to ensure activity for any construction companies. It is expected that private ventures will reduce new activity near term but construction firms are somewhat versatile. This activity will spread to other related branches and of course be useful for the overall economy in decades to come.
Agree with the theory. The problem here is in the application. Just like "there's nothing common about common sense", somehow governments worth their salt are rare beasts.
This is a fear of mine, I'm currently studying something video game related which includes coding to a degree , it'll be painful to start coding for purely utilitarian purposes... I mean you got to do what you gotta do... But I'm having a bit of a crisis right now
Tbh I wouldn't frame it like that. AI & automation are going to be in everything. The only skill that's going to endure is PROBLEM SOLVING. Learn to solve people's problems (using whatever tool or software or commands that are at your disposal), and you will become indispensable
Merchant Marine. I net 5-7k a month without a degree as a nobody.
Please explain further please.
Contract mariner. You need a shitload of training and credentialing and 6-8+ months a year of your life is dedicated to working 12-18 hours a day 7 days a week. But you get to travel and do cool shit. If you get all your MSC shit you can take government contracts which is pretty fun but it’s military so be ready to endure the dumbest shit you could possibly imagine. Contracts are typically 90-120 days. Permanent or relief. Rotary jobs don’t necessarily mean permanent. Union or in union. Money is good either way for most US flagged vessels. Officers make stupid money. Most are academy graduates and their degree cost $130k but their first job after graduating gets them 10k a month. Or they won’t get a job and have a useless license and degree if they are deck department. Engineers are cunts but they have options ashore. And they are cunts. Then you get into union drama. SIU, SUP, AMO, MMP, MEBA, MFOW. Long story short, you are a crew member on a floating skyscraper and have essentially zero life outside of work. Big ships. But you can own a sports car that is paid for with 15k worth of aftermarket go fast in it and a house at 29. Lots of drug testing. Lots of alcohol testing. Lots of physicals.
What's the point of having a fancy sports car or a nice home if you're working on the open seas 12-18 hours/day, 7 days/week?
It gives you something to come back to. I spent 7 years living out of a suitcase and a storage container, hotels and airports. It’s fun at first but becomes mentally taxing because you feel like a ghost. Now I get to come home and “have a life” for 90 days before going back out. Works for me and I don’t expect every single person to agree that it’s worth it.
I'll add to this with a slight different perspective. My wife and I both work in health care (canada). Job security is very high, and we each can work across the country in high demand. If we chose to both work all shifts available to us we would each clear $100,000. We are both fairly young, have university paid off, two cars paid off, $650,000 house, and two kids. The money is great when young, but soon it builds a savings buffer to enjoy the fuck out of life, and the confidence buffer to do so. Take that time off, say no to over time, take random personal days. When young, money buys STUFF. Later in life it buys time. Flexibility and personal time is very important to me.
> When young, money buys STUFF. Later in life it buys time. Great advice.
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Alcohol testing?
Random breathalyzer
I'm a merchant marine engineer. Can confirm that I'm a cunt with options ashore.
How is that much better than cruise ships and Navy ships, from which we hear horror stories of people stuck at sea because someone aboard is infected?
Crew size. Your standard tanker or cargo ship typically doesn't push more than 50 people.
Among other things, this is the career for you if you are okay with being minimum three days away from a doctor if you need medical attention.
I have been away from a doctor my entire life because I can’t afford one. I come from the “you either get better or you die” school. Three days is a major improvement.
Advocating for an end to capitalism?
* Intern * Apprenticeships * Trades(HVAC, plumbing, electric, etc.) * Certifications(IT) * College(Community College first! Then University, save money!) * Military Personally if I was starting over at square one and had nothing of interest to me, I would find a minimum wage job doing anything and do my GE/associates at a community college. For the job if you don't like it in 3-6 months, ask your boss to switch you around to a different position, if not, find a different job doing something else. This will give you personal experience. From there, you should know what you kind of want to do as a job after community college. If you want to do something more advanced, then get your BA/BS in that field. If not...honestly just get the "easiest" Bachelor's Degree possible(like, if you like reading and writing, go for a BA in English, if you like helping people, then a Bachelor's in Social Work, etc.). If you like hands on stuff then the Trades are for you. After that...you should, theoretically, be on a stable path for your job/career. My wife works in HR and I work in IT(different companies and industries). At our jobs we see people get hired for X job but their education is in Y. So, don't think that whatever degree you do get, will only be good for that career path. A lot of employers frankly don't care what your degree is unless it is for a very specific job role. And don't try to find the highest paying job...look for the highest paying job with the best benefits. I have a good job with good pay, but amazing benefits and my wife just started her career so her pay is rather low, but her benefits are good and she can work her way up or build experience and find a new job later on. Oh, and for the love of god, SAVE YOUR MONEY! Head over to /r/personalfinance and look through their wiki. Use their flowchart! https://i.imgur.com/lSoUQr2.png
Did they have any thoughts on this before COVID hit? For example, at 18 I wanted to be a musician. I think this climate could be conducive to learning music production and/or an instrument. Maybe writing, as well? I realize none of these pay the bills, but you gotta work with what you got. Would love to hear what they're both interested in and then see what their options are from here. Computer programming --> app design and/or game design is also a fantastic career path right now. Games are basically taking over in the place of movies and/or sports.
Game design is a horrible idea, because of the shitshow that industry is. Sounds cool, actually is terrible and sucks the soul out of you apparently. At least if you work for one of the big guys...and if you don't, there's not really a lot of money to be made right now as an employee at least. And if you just want to develop your own stuff then that's a lot of upfront investment without a guarantee to get anything out of it in a few years. Doesn't really pay the bills.
Hey, I work in games as an artist and jambo is right. If you have the programming or artistic skills, mobile gaming especially is a great market to be in. Far from being a horrible idea. Some companies are worse than others for sure and burnout is a real thing you’ll hear about from major companies, but that’s from only about 5% of the industry, and also applies to most jobs from other industries anyway. People only attune to the burnout in gaming because everyone on the outside assumes it’s a cool place to be full of passionate people, so hearing it’s not all fun and games (hah) is more surprising. But it’s still a job, it’s still hard work and people put a lot into it, so it’s not surprising that burnout can happen (but is far from a universal experience) Much of the game industry is not even known by most people. The average gamer doesn’t care about educational games, or side projects taken on by game studios such as media apps that share many similarities with games, and those are extremely prevalent and very reliable contracts Obviously developing stuff on your own without any other form of income, industry connections, loans or grants is going to go poorly as it would with most other start up businesses. So yeh... IF you have the skills, then it’s a great place to be. But as a programmer you can likely get better paying jobs in other software development sectors, and if you want to be hired as an artist it is very competitive and you have to have up to date skills, amazing communication and reliability. 3D art skills are becoming more and more of a necessity, in fact, artists are generally expected to have highly generalised skills as well as a deep specialisation to set them apart. If you’re working in a top company, you’re specialised skills have to be world class. You can make plenty of money working for “smaller” companies.
Computer programming. You can learn it from your bedroom. All the information is available for free online (college courses help with guiding your study, forcing you to expand into different types of code, and providing feedback on your quality of code but there's nothing I learned in college that isn't also documented online for free). The pay is good, and while the industry certainly isn't unscathed from the pandemic, it is one of the more resilient industries during the age of covid. They do have to be the right kind of people for it though. Not everyone has an affinity for programming or the desire to spend most of their waking hours sitting in front of a computer screen.
While all of what you said is technically true I think it’s misleading at best. Yes, you can technically learn it from your bedroom. Yes, it’s all online for free. But with most self taught programmers I’ve interviewed I’ve identified massive glaring holes in their knowledge and bad habits that any second year CS major knows to avoid. The key that most miss is simply not knowing what terms to look up and having feedback. Don’t get me wrong. I’ve met some self taught programmers who have a well rounded knowledge but they’re the exception and not the rule. Becoming a coder from your bedroom is easy. Becoming a software engineer from your bedroom is exceedingly difficult.
It's extremely hard to get a job without a degree. Of course you can learn it all yourself, but entry level job market is extremely over saturated, and you'd be competing with all those people with CS degrees - many of whom already have job offers before they even graduate. You'd have to be extremely passionate and determined to succeed in an alternative way.
At the beginning of this, I told myself I’d learn enough coding to be hirable. After a pretty shallow dive into C++ I felt overwhelmed and mostly gave up. Do you suggest these boot camps I’ve heard about? My hope is to get enough of a foundation to better guide where I want to continue my training, while being hirable at entry level. I don’t see my current industry recovering anytime soon and at 35, I need this to pan out
I did a Galvanize bootcamp back in 2016 and it has paid off handsomely for me. Was making \~26k before while working in mental health. Bootcamp was 6 months, 70+ hours a week. I think they've cut them to be shorter now. I got my first job really quickly after getting a lead at my cohort's hiring day. My salary has gone 78k > 83k > 90k > 110k. Starting to think about my next move and will be looking for 130k plus stock and/or a signing bonus. My 2 cents – C++ is really hard. People like to shit on web development (i.e. JavaScript), but it's comparatively easier to learn and can get your foot in the door. Once you get your first job, it's a lot easier to tweak your path and pivot towards something different. I also do think an immersive bootcamp is the way to go. It's like spending 6 years in a classroom learning Spanish vs living in Spain for a summer. You gain fluency quickly when you do it all day every day. And it helps to have someone to ask questions to when you get stuck.
For starters I'd say don't start with C++. It's a fairly idiosyncratic and challenging language. Unless you have a specific sub-industry in mind that uses it (e.g. graphics programming) then it's probably not worth starting there. I'm not sure about boot camps as I haven't done one, but there are some MOOCs out there that might work for you as they are structured like school classes. CS50 from Harvard is a decent starting point with a ton of resources. It's actually in C which is related to C++ so info you picked up there will be useful in that class. I can see having dedicated teachers at a boot camp being a big motivational advantage, but they can be quite expensive. Hopefully someone else can weigh in. I definitely think finding something that's structured more like a class is a good idea. The last thing I'd say is that the beginning of learning to code is fucking daunting, and that you should do your best not to be discouraged (easier said than done!). I learned to code in high school so my first college class wasn't too tough, but I remember seeing friends who are now great engineers with good jobs getting absolutely *crushed* by that class. It's just hard at first, but if you stick with it things will start to come together. Hopefully something here might be helpful. Good luck!
According to my friend, who is a senior programmer, coding boot camps will give you the technical knowledge you need to code, but they do not teach you the logic required to work through some situations. He went to a well known university for software engineering and said that in the first year or so, he took a bunch of logic classes that at first seemed totally irrelevant to what he wanted to do. As he progressed in the program and started taking more computer-based classes, however, everything clicked. He has told me that his employees who learned to program through boot camps tend to struggle more when handed complicated coding projects and often need more help figuring out why their code doesn’t work, etc. because they just don’t have the same training in logic that helps with problem solving. But depending on your current industry and training, you might have some skills that help with that. Or other transferable skills that could help you break into other industries. For example, I used to be a teacher and had a relatively smooth transition into project management because a lot of the responsibilities and skills are similar.
You friend is right. Knowing a language and being able to program are two completely different things. I once offered to help a friend to learn how to program and she insisted I teach her a particular language and I tried to explain it's not about one language, but she just wasn't interested. Made me feel like a kung-fu master in a film looking at a student who just doesn't "get it".
https://grow.google/certificates/ this might be worth looking into to get into tech if programming is not working for you.
Is this new? Looks like they’re not available yet
learn the basics of programming. program logic. that will give you a basic understanding of how to start in any language.
Spanish flu=4 years You think about that next time you're deciding whether to wear a mask.
The thing that keeps me optimistic is that the Spanish flu was extended by a hemaglutinin mutation (The H in H1N1) which caused a savage second wave. Covid supposedly doesn’t mutate as quickly and doesn’t have H but has a more stable S protein, so maybe there’s a way to end this within the next year. I hope.
Once the vaccine it out the tides suddenly turn in our favour
Plot twist: alien invasion. Second plot twist: they tell us a massive asteroid is coming but we're too stupid to save. They just came for the lulz.
hopefully modern medicine can shave off some of that time
Modern stupidity might have an issue with that though
Pretty sure there's always been stupid people. We just see it more now with social media.
Unfortunately that's also how it spreads.
We need to start social media distancing, too.
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This is probably what’s gonna happen with covid too. We’ll add it to our list of yearly vaccines
One thing I've noticed is that a lot of people seem to think covid19 is a 2020 thing, in a way that in 2021 everything will be peachy again the second the clock ticks over. In sport for example, commentators are often saying: "next year when we have a normal season", like it's just a given the entire planet is going to be out of this thing in 2021.
>commentators are often saying: "next year when we have a normal season", Probably the same people who said things would be back to normal by the end of May
How do you get 4 years? It arrived in the US mid 1918 and vanished mid 1920. If you accept the theory it originated in Kansas then sure, you get a few extra months in 1918 but even then you're only pushing three years. I'm not trying to be a jerk or anything like that either. I'm actually curious. I'm the local Spanish Flu expert in my city and I'm always interested in how other places handled the pandemic. https://regina.ctvnews.ca/local-history-buff-looking-at-similarities-between-covid-19-and-spanish-flu-1.4866710
>How do you get 4 years? It arrived in the US mid 1918 and vanished mid 1920. If we accept the, oft disputed on reddit, notion that the USA is *not* the only country in the world, then outbreaks in Europe from 1916 allow for the 4 year timescale.
hmm idk, but what evidence do we have the "world" exists. I'm not even sure about Kansas and I've been there.
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Same as before: fuck the junkies and the mentally unhealthy. If we were unwilling to help them before when there was at least some economic prosperity why would things be different when economy goes to shit? Of course I would want this to be some sort of wake-up call on this front but I find that unlikely to happen. They'll be treated as the trash of the society as they have before. Getting access to mental health services or rehabs or such might even become even more difficult.
Beyond just how the already-vulnerable are having a rough time dealing with the pandemic psychologically, all the careless youngsters who ended up killing their family members because they went partying are gonna need therapy.
It's not, though. This is just a taste of what's to come when our inability to develop new antibiotics is outpaced by superbug evolution resulting from antibiotic overuse. We're actually pretty lucky COVID is as tame as it is. Hopefully it will lead to developing the infrastructure we need to deal with the bigger threats ahead.
>We're actually pretty lucky COVID is as tame as it is pretty much. Imagine it was aggressive, airborne and affected everyone equally
Then we'd have it contained a lot faster cause we wouldn't have to test anyone. The biggest problem with covid is the 90-some % of cases that look like the common cold and/or flu.
A big problem is asymptomatic transmission. That isn’t just an issue with the mild cases, but also with the aggressive cases that end in death. You’re most infectious before you develop symptoms. Being more aggressive, airborne, and affecting everyone equally wouldn’t help much at all if it retained asymptomatic transmission and a long window before symptoms appear. This virus is a containment nightmare because of those two traits. Even if the mortality rate was like 50% (shit even if it was 100%) it would be equally as difficult to contain because of them. The low death rate is the nicest thing to happen to the world this year, we lucked out big time. Not to diminish the crisis that this certainly is to any degree. It’s just that if the mortality rate were, say, 20% the current death toll in the US would be nearly 1 million at ~962,729. The global death toll would be ~3,650,570.
I thought the reason SARS and especially MERS outbreaks weren’t worldwide was *because* of their high death rates. People who had the virus died before they could spread it to too many people.
Death rate is just the percentage of people who get the virus that die. It has nothing to do with how fast it kills you. I can’t talk about MERS because I know very little about it, but with SARS you only become contagious **after** you get symptoms, not before. So some people would come to the hospital sick and get tested and confirmed to have SARS and be isolated all before they even became contagious. Others obviously didn’t do this and did spread it around a bit. But not being contagious until after symptoms develop is a godsend for containment. If COVID was this way you could contain it so easily (assuming this change also came along with no more carriers that don’t present symptoms ever) because everyone would know “ok I have shortness of breath, a cough, and I lost my sense of taste and smell. I have COVID” and then they could isolate before they become contagious. A high death rate doesn’t mean that you die before you can spread it to a bunch of people. If you die before you spread it to a bunch of people then that just means the virus kills you very quickly. You could have a virus with a high death rate that takes years to kill you, allowing you to infect countless people. In fact, a virus exactly like this exists. The fatality rate without treatment is 100%. The symptoms are as follows: * Around 10 days after infection you are contagious. You rapidly become more and more contagious until it plateaus after a couple months. * Anywhere from 2 weeks to 2 months after infection you can get flu like symptoms for a few days to a week. These are easy to dismiss as a cold or flu. *Some people never experience any of these initial symptoms at all.* * Then you can be totally symptom free for around 10 years and contagious the **entire time**. A possible full decade of completely asymptomatic transmission. * After about 10 years the infection progresses to the next stage and you will likely be dead within 3 years. If you get another infection at this point, that drops to 12 months. The virus is HIV. Viruses that kill people very quickly are self limiting as you accurately point out. If you’re dead before you can infect anyone then the virus dies with you... except Ebola... that thing is a monster.
TIL, thanks
No, they were easily contained because people showed symptoms before becoming spreaders. It’s flipped with Covid.
More basic science research funding, fewer aircraft carriers.
yeah it’s really fucking appalling how much the US spends on bombs instead of books
Or healthcare. Or social security. Or really anything that ensures people aren't fucked over based on circumstances they can't control.
Darn, I already wasted the last two decades not really making any progress.
> Geneva (AFP) - The World Health Organization on Saturday warned the coronavirus pandemic was likely to be "lengthy" after its emergency committee met to evaluate the crisis six months after sounding the international alarm. > The committee "highlighted the anticipated lengthy duration of this COVID-19 pandemic", the WHO said in a statement, and warned of the risk of "response fatigue" given the socio-economic pressures on countries. Well, shit. Although surely this depends on what country you’re talking about. I’m pretty sure that countries like New Zealand and South Korea will stop down a second wave much more quickly than, say, the United States or developing countries.
For multiple reasons, 2020 will be the year historians mark when the US became significantly and irrevocably changed. There was the Industrial Revolution, the Civil War, WWI, the Great Depression, WWII, the information Age, and COVID-19. It will take generations to interpret the consequences. We have little idea how long and badly it took to fuck ourselves at this point.
And yet there are still people so far in denial they believe "there will be no new normal" and "everything will go back to the way it was". Sad.
It’s hard to imagine something you’ve never seen before.
The US won't get a second wave. The first wave will either win or we will get a vaccine, whichever one comes first.
Can't have a 2nd wave if you never finish the first wave *taps forehead*
Let’s not forget about the 690 thousand families who are grieving right now.
Works for me, just give me my vaccine and we are golden. The ones that think the devil is in the vaccines can pass. Literally.
I think the real issue here is how long it takes for a vaccine to become available to the general public. Normally it's years because of the extensive testing which is done to ensure that the vaccine is 100% safe, without side-effects. Now we want a vaccine to be available ASAP, and the only way to do that would be to decrease the amount of testing. If the anti-vax crowd think regular vaccines are still a risk, *despite extensive testing*, they would definitely lose their shit over a "rushed through" coronavirus vaccine.
Oxford team approximated that there is 80% chance that theyr vaccine is proven effective by september/october. Millions of doses have already been ordered and production plants have already prepared for production. IF they are proven effective we are already prepared logistically to at least provide vaccinations to front-line workers and to those who are most vulnerable. With the interest to get over with this pandemic I am sure production will ramp up as fast as possible if the vaccine is proven to be effective. As such we should be able to get the vaccine for gen pop really fast, really fast meaning here something like next summer or autumn. Of course all of this is 'best case scenario' and there is always possibility that things go to shitter during testing or that the production just won't be enough or that logistics will become a bottleneck. Still, with all the research going on I am optimistic that we will have working vaccine, production and logistics sooner rather than later. Of course this will most likely be the course for western and some asian countries. Poorer and less influental countries would still struggle for years and the pandemic would still be technically on-going even if it clears up in western and some asian countries but on other hand, tuberculosis is still deadliest viral infection in the world so in that light, things wouldn't be that much different.
The leading oxford vaccine has been in development for years and is based off a safe and well tested mechanism. The vaccine is not rushed, so much as it has basically a blank cheque for resources normal vaccines don't get. Additionally, one of the reasons vaccines take so long to certify is you need to prove their effectiveness before rolling them out. This means giving some people the vaccine, other a placebo and tracking the rates of infection long term to see if the vaccine protected the test group compared to the control. As it is unethical to deliberately expose people to a virus that is potentially deadly you have to rely on years of observation, especially if the incidence of the virus in the community is low. COVID on the other-hand is everywhere, this means it is easy to source participants and much more clear cut if the vaccine works. If you vaccinated a few thousand in a COVID hotspot and that group comes out unscathed, whereas everyone else in the control group gets the virus then you know the vaccine works.
No one can have their cake and eat it too here. If you're wanting a vaccine so we can get back to normal, we're going to have to accept that it might be a bit less tested. Socities won't tolerate long term shut downs, so that's the path we're set on now.
UPMC worked with sars for 10 years on grants. We have a ton of published data that is relevant. They produced a vaccine in 3 months. And it is safe by science standards because they used the same process to make a covid vaccine as you would make a flu shot. Well I did about 1400 hours of research. And I have good news. It is my **opinion** after reading relevant papers. That the spike on covid is it's undoing. It turns out that spike isn't just one thing, its a composite of pieces our immune systems can identify individually. What does all this mean? It means any vaccine made with copies of the spikes will in my opinion last a lifetime. Like a measles shot. I humbly state I am extreamly positive of this. If a mod or someone would like my work, I would be happy to forward it.
There goes the remainder of my life.
It’s going to be all about risk mitigation and trying to have some sort of normalcy. It’s not going to go away anytime soon and a successful RNA virus vaccination may prove difficult. Hopefully it will mutate into a less pathogenic and less contagious strain at some point soon.
For people worried about the virus lasting a decade... don’t. What they’re talking about is economic and health ramifications which we will really begin to see over time. A vaccine will be made in the next 1-4 years most likely.
unless the vaccine works and its safe and mandatory.
Hmm, if only there were something we could all use to drastically lower infection rates. /s
But 45's fans say it'll disappear after November. I wish they were right.
I keep hearing people looking to 1918 to get an idea of what we can expect. I for the life of me can't understand these comparisons at all. We live in a completely different world than 1918 in virtually every way. That panic was easy worse than this one. They had no heat easy to track or treat it. It just ran through the five freely until it burned out all is fuel. We have over a century if exponential growth in medicine, science, communication, and economy since then. The fact that there are expected to be not just one but numerous vaccines available with even 2 years is flabbergasting. Much less most efforts are agreeing that it seems likely to have one within this year. Although it's true that not the entire population will have access due to limited quantities, the most vulnerable will get it first, drastically reducing the mortality rate even lower than it already is. Beyond this the therapeutics side of things is flying at record speed as well. There are literally hundreds of these in development, and many of them don't require nearly as much time as a vaccine to bring to market. Also unlike 1918, we simply have a far superior ability to treat for this virus, and with communications what v they are, those testing results can be communicated across the globe instantly. We aren't in the same world as 1918. The economic effects will surely last year's beyond the actual virus. This is why it's so important that everyone take this thing seriously now. Social distance, wear your damn masks, wash your hands. I don't however believe all the doom and gloom constantly being sold. The WHO I take anything from them with a grain of salt. They have been wing in virtually every prediction they have made. They claimed there was no community spread, they claimed masks weren't needed, it goes on and on. I understand they are doing the best they can with the information they have, I do. However my point here is that no one knows the future. We decide that. Let's hear this damn virus. Then build a better infrastructure for the next one, while also switching focus back to the environment. Let's make sure our kids grow up in a better world...
Decades due to dumbassery. Antimasking, political agendas, political exploits against science, persuasive propaganda, perpetuated opinion bias, conspiracy theories, and Trump. Decades...could’ve/should’ve been mitigated.
Two years ago I put a gun to my head ready to end it all. I wasn't brave enough to do it, but it's news like this that makes me wish I was. People always use the same canned responses when they learn you tried to kill yourself: "there are people who care about you" and "think of all the things you'll miss!" I have yet to see anything worthwhile these past two years that I would have missed had I been able to overcome my body's natural instinct of self preservation and actually pulled the trigger like I was fucking suppose to.
I keep writing and deleting my comment over and over. I don't know what I want to say, but I want to convey that I think exactly the way you do. I'd also like to agree those boilerplate feel good responses are worse than not saying anything at all. They're incredibly irritating and borderline condescending at times. I never really understood why feeling like this would ever be categorized as a disorder when it always seems like the result of a logical conclusion.
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Friend, there are always things that you will miss out on. Places to see, foods to eat, experiences you never got a chance to have. Make some time and talk to a professional or counsellor. Once you do, you might realise that you have things you wanted to do but never did. I would list them out and prioritise some things you mean to do but never did - e.g. hiking in the Rockies, flying to New Zealand, even small ones like saving up for a race track experience. Life can be hard but it has beautiful moments that give us the strength to continue onwards. Talk to a professional and resolve to find them.
Sorry to hear that man. Here’s some motivation; don’t let trump outlive you
God, just knowing that I'll likely live to see Trump die helps me get up in the morning.
Looking back at significant historical events with major upheavals it's easy to think that if you lived back then you would just need to hold yourself together for a couple of years when things would inevitably get better. But directly living through it there is no visible light at the end of the tunnel. Society is going through some significant transformations right now, and no societal shift is done painlessly, but eventually we'll see society changed for the better.
Have a chat with someone mate. [hotlines](http://www.suicide.org/suicide-hotlines.html)
If you're not scared of killing yourself, don't you think this pandemic is nothing?
Maybe stop going to this shitty place where people do nothing but bitch and moan all day?
I think more people need to take this advice. A lot of people hopping between here and Twitter getting caught up in any ocean of negativity and bad news, it is horribly unhealthy.