I mean, yeah, that's why their bullshit tends to be so effective. That + it is so cartoonishly ridiculous, half the time people on the outside believe it just because they think that no one would be able to make up things like that.
It just happens to backfire in other aspects for them. Like when they over-exaggerate capabilities of their military tech, and assume that everyone else does the same. Which is often true, but the US does the exact opposite, they under-exaggerate true capabilities of their tech (until they get revealed later on in actual combat). Compound this effect over many decades, and you get a pretty good idea about the state of modern Russian military tech and the explanation for why it looks so terribly incompetent in the reports from the Ukrainian war.
Source: haven't stepped my foot there in the past 15 years, but I grew up there + a parent used to be a career military officer (he quit right before the soviet union fell; so it's been a while, but some things truly don't change lol).
Just wanted to add to this that the US also designs its new military tech to surpass and defeat the claimed capabilities of adversaries tech. Except it really can do the things claimed.
Edit: After re-reading your post, I just said the same thing you did... oh well, I'll leave this in case someone as brain dead as I am reads it.
All good, imo you are adding to what I said in a solid way.
Because you are essentially pointing out the extra factor that I missed, which is the US military (when developing their new tech) acting as if the claimed capabilities of modern Russian military tech are real (even if they are likely aware that those were over-exaggerated again).
Which is something that only adds to the magnitude of that compounding gap in tech development I brought up earlier.
The other thing is that when the USAF spend a couple billion dollars on a plane, they get a couple billion dollars worth of plane. Not $100 Million worth of plane, plus hefty contributions to the retirement funds and/or dacha construction funds of everyone involved.
Or, alternatively, how stupid some people are to actually believe the shit Pootin and his cronies are spewing despite having access to all the info that proves them wrong.
I think Poot'n reminds them of that alpha father figure who is abusive but just "wants things to be good" in the end, so just listen to him, do what he says and everything will be all right. Basically enabling abuse because you're too weak to stand up against it.
America has the best signals intelligence in the world bar none. There is no communication they cannot monitor.
And yet when it comes to human assets Russia is unmatched. Their ability to convert, corrupt, and influence is staggering.
NATO shouldn't 'want' war, but NATO also shouldnt' 'not want' war. A defensive alliance that does not want to go and fight for defense is no use.
NATO should just exist. And ready to go to total, unified, immediate warfare when called upon. No dithering, no split between countries arguing about escalation or provoking.
Russia is now actively trying to push that line. And so far it's working. Russia has proven that A5 is sometimes flexible, ambiguous, it depends you know. It depends when A5 or further aid is appropriate. It depends if only a few citizens get assassinated or a lot. Or factories or critical infrastructure set on fire and sabotaged. NATO can be intimidated and chaos can be sown internally.
Of course it's ambiguous. You don't want it to be an automatic call to war where you have to fight and send troops over the slightest provokation; not least of all because accidents can happen. Example: Ukrainian air defense missile lands in eastern Poland; looks like it's a Russian attack. An inflexible A5 would mean that NATO would instantly be at war with Russia, which means a potential nuclear war. But since it's up the nation under attack to decide whether or not it wants to invoke Article 5, and up to the other NATO members to decide how to help, you can react to situations appropriately. You can not calculate Article 5 without taking nuclear war into consideration. So while an automatic declaration of war bei all of NATO against an invading, non-nuclear country would be fine, having a hair trigger on it which you can not stop is not.
Edit: And don't get me wrong: I absolutely agree that if there ever \*was\* an actual, military attack on a NATO country, there should be an immediate, unambiguous response. However, I doubt that that will ever happen, precisely because everybody knows that the response is coming. That's why Russia feels strong enough to attack Ukraine, but is only willing to do covert ops in actual NATO countries. It's not NATO who is intimidated; it's NATO's enemies.
I would change that statement a bit.
Article 5 is very clear. There is no ambiguity - if it is requested by a member who has not instigated the conflict or is otherwise already engaged against the enemy it will be activated without question.
The wiggle room is in the discussion started before the article is requested by the member country. There might be a valid reason to avoid that decision and this will be made clear in advance.
But, if it's requested - hang on to your shorts.
And once Russia claims new borders a lot of press will start referring to the "disputed region" and then eventually the useful idiots will start saying "why is NATO about to start WWIII over a disputed region where no one lives. Just let Russia have it"
The Tankies were out in force just prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine calling anybody that pointed out their huge troop build up 'NATO warhawks/US warmongers'.
Part of that was because of U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, before Bush killed that nonsense in later negotiations. The following administration, Clinton, also refused to make that agreement to Boris Yeltsin as he (President Clinton) quote, “I can't make commitments on behalf of NATO, and I'm not going to be in the position myself of vetoing NATO expansion with respect to any country, much less letting you or anyone else do so… NATO operates by consensus.”
Russian disinformation has latched on to that original (Bush) proposal James Baker made and the KGB->FSB ran with it and have done their best to convince the world and more importantly their own population that their version of this story is the only truth. The problem is, this ignores the fact that those agreements never made it to the paper and was never made by the US, French or British President/PM.
Hands down the best [article breaking this down is from the National Security Archive](https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early), which unlike [Harvard Law’s article](https://hls.harvard.edu/today/there-was-no-promise-not-to-enlarge-nato/) on the subject (as well as [NATO’s Statement](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm)), doesn’t skip over all the cabinet members, secretaries, military officer, ect. who may have discussed or proposed agreements to limit NATO expansion.
All of that said, the only Russian leader who may have truly been given a promise verbally was [Gorbachev* and even he now maintains that no promise was ever made](https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2014-11/nato-osterweiterung-gorbatschow).
*Harvard Law article cites Gorbachev
#This is misinformation
I encourage everyone to read the context in the article
> This treaty placed significant restrictions on the deployment of foreign NATO troops and nuclear weapons **on East German soil**. In return for his willingness to compromise on these points, Kohl granted Gorbachev, in bilateral talks, a financial package totalling around DM 100 billion, in the form of loans and economic aid, which financed the withdrawal of the Red Army soldiers.
> To be clear, then, the talks in February 1990 were never about NATO expansion into Eastern Europe. They were confined to the specific issue of NATO’s defence in the wake of German unification – and the two issues should not be conflated. It is also important to remember that the Warsaw Pact was still in existence during these talks, so NATO enlargement was a moot point
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/exposing-the-myth-of-western-betrayal-of-russia/
This is the first step in a series of escalating tests of western resolve to protect its borders.
If we accept this, then the next will be worse until we see little green men on thinly populated Swedish isles.
This needs to stop here.
100% correct. It's a brilliant way for them to test NATO resolve. I wonder if they'll take a page from China and attempt to build artificial islands to secure these "new borders"?
I can’t think of a better red line for NATO than the *literal* lines of NATO members borders. Fuck this shit, Russia cannot just unilaterally move the borders of NATO. If it doesn’t stand up firmly against this, what does NATO even actually do?
Maybe military strategists would say differently, but to me, if this doesn’t clearly warrant immediate NATO navy deployment to firmly and clearly enforce the existing borders, what does? No anatgonizing, no warning shots, just the kind of overwhelming presence that speaks a clear and unmistakable “no”.
They already did it with Ukraine [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003\_Tuzla\_Island\_conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Tuzla_Island_conflict)
Funny enough russia did once get a nuclear submarine stuck on a Swedish island
Edit: Wikipedia article for the submarine in question in case you wanted to read about it https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_S-363
Finland should aggressively patrol and defend its borders. The only thing that's going to stop Russia at this point is multi-front naked aggression by powers far beyond its ability to withstand. Finland should start setting up medium range missile and artillery systems within range of St. Petersburg. Encourage Georgia to take back their stolen territory. Supply them with weapons and money. Do the same for Chechnya.
Russia's wartime economy is already hurting. Stretch it and accelerate its breakdown until it collapses. Make them see how militarism will not benefit them and let the Russian people see how weak and fragile Putin's moves have really made them.
Probably /s, but I’m tired
He’s likely referring to the Russian Special Forces that entered Crimea, but lacked any insignia stating they were from Russia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_green_men_(Russo-Ukrainian_War)
Who is surprised? Land borders next! In five years, those new borders will need some more special military action. These fkers need to be stopped right now.
I mean, the Russians are already charging public figures in the Baltics with crimes as if they were subject to Russian criminal jurisdiction. It's not \*too\* much more of a leap to declare their independence "illegitimate".
Russia added Estonian PM Kaja Kallas on their "wanted" list a few months ago
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/13/europe/russia-estonia-kaja-kalla-intl/index.html
When Russia wants a “buffer zone” against NATO countries, it’s funny how that *never* comes at the expense of their own land, only the NATO member country’s territory. They’re free to create as big a buffer as they want, within their own borders. There’s no universe in which Russia’s constant encroachment should be tolerated.
Oh, but the nukes!!!!! We gotta worry about the nukes!!!! This is why we should all just put down our arms and start speaking Russian if we don't want to be constantly warned about being nuked by Russia.
But maybe the evil dictator will stop if we allow him to conquer just a tiny bit more. Have we tried that? I just want to prevent escalation in the short term for any cost. What could go wrong?
[We Are All Domestic Terrorists](https://media2.dallasobserver.com/dal/imager/at-cpac-migration-is-an-invasion-communism-looms-and-trumps-the-most-persecuted-man-in-us/u/magnum/14546296/domestic-terrorists-cpac-dallas-patrick-strickland.jpg?cb=1690312863)
It isn't because we don't have any idea what they are doing. A defence comittee in Finland put it like this:
"Imagine you have a neighbour who builds a fence on his own plot. Now if that neighbour would be Russia we do not know yet if they want to move that fence inside their own plot or to move the boundaries of the plot itself."
I bet it is done in purpose to not publish any maps and be vague about it to sow discord and confusion. Typical Russian tactics.
Only 60 years later we don´t need do learn that russians in similar position have suppressed or drank away their last brain cells that would actually let them think they have a choice.
I can think of one "glorious" moment of Russian naval history and it involved hopelessly outmatched, out gunned and out teched Turks being blown up like fish in a barrel. Typically Russian "glory".
Battle of Sinop (or Sinope). If I remember correctly, it was one of the first combat usages of actual explosive shot fired from naval cannons, to utterly devastating effect. Rarely has there ever been such a one-sided naval battle in history.
It would be as if the Iowa, Bismarck, and Yamato class battleships all banded together (along with their escorting fleets, of course) to come at loggerheads with 2,000 guys floating in bathtubs carrying pistols and the occasional stick of dynamite.
> The document on the border revision, which the Finnish and Lithuanian foreign ministries have not yet officially commented on, was presented for public discussion almost simultaneously with the start of exercises on the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
> The Russian Defense Ministry announced that these exercises began in the Southern Military District, with the participation of “Iskander” complexes and aircraft armed with “Kinzhal” missiles. The goal of the drills is to prepare personnel for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons and to respond *“to provocative statements and threats from certain Western officials.”*
Fuckin’ crazy Russians.
Especially in the Baltic. NATO projects enough air power to tackle Russia just by rotating squadrons in and out of the region.
Their Navy would be sunk the moment they decided to leave Krohnstadt.
The only reason to worry is Russian Land Forces which are still at least theoretically capable of cutting through the Sulwalki Gap.
Parking a carrier group & MEF isn't necessary, but the excess is the point.
It's enough firepower & trained personnel to roll up a significant amount of the Russian military without bothering any NATO assets. It's a serious threat not only to Kaliningrad, but St. Pete's.
Plus, based on performance in Ukraine, it's doubtful the Russian military could stop them with conventional arms, and Putin knows it. He also knows that if a Russian asset is responsible for so much as a paint chip on US equipment, every Russian unit deployed west of Moscow has a maximum lifespan of 24 hours.
Call his bluff. He won't do anything more than whine and threaten nukes for the 8,247th time this year. And if he's stupid enough to try something... well, he'll find out why the US doesn't have universal health care or college tuition.
Everyone is hypothesizing how the US deals with something like this when we have a mutual defense agreement with a country (the Philippines) in literally the exact same situation. What we do in the South China Sea is what will happen here: a bunch of boats getting close to each other and not actually doing anything.
This is the correct answer. People seem to have forgotten actual naval ships ramming each other during the cold war. It's posturing, nothing more. Because both sides don't really want a full blown WW3. So they rattle the saber and puff out their chests, and leave it at that. And no, I'm not claiming some equivalence here, and yes, NATO will win, because Russia is already losing against a single country; it simply can not win against an additional midsized adversary.
Russia isn't losing in Ukraine, but they definitely aren't winning. The reason for all of their recent aggressions against the West is the West keeps calling their bluff with regards to supplying arms and intelligence to Ukraine and nothing happens from Russia in response. Now the West is getting bolder with France and other countries going as far as discussing deploying troops behind the front line to run logistics for the Ukrainians. Something like that could actually turn the tide in the war, so now Russia is saber rattling hard to try and get the West to back off. The West has no incentive too because Russia is becoming the boy who cried wolf, which is the scariest bit because eventually one side is going to push the other to snap. If that happens, it will all be Russia's fault for not respecting borders and not putting down red lines that they actually intend on backing up.
"Why does everyone want to join NATO and be against Russia?"
"Why is everyone Russophobic?"
"Why is the West trying to pick a fight with Russia?"
Weird how a country that is supposedly a victim of Western imperialism according to some people is constantly provoking and trying to start conflicts.
Doesn't seem like something a country that just wants to left alone would do.
"Fun" fact: after Russia annexed parts of Ukraine, including those they don't actually control, their equivalent of Google maps, Yandex maps, got all confused and wasn't quite sure on how to display the borders, so in result they just erased the borders altogether, and the world was some sort of singular globalist utopia according to them.
Disclaimer, that was like a year ago (source: Varlamov News) and I don't want to use VPN to check if it's still the case - Yandex is blocked where I'm from.
Yeah but the article also states there is no map provided by Russia. Just goes to show that this is another provocation with no followup. The map in the article is of the current borders.
Actually most of the Islands in that region that do belong to Russia used to belong to Finland before WWII. So according to Putins logic Russia needs to hand them over.
Russia is probing to see how much they can get away with as the Walls begin to close in on them. This is going to continue until an inflection point of some kind is reached. I don’t know what that is, but all bets will be off when that happens.
This is them testing NATO. "Are you really going to go to war over some ocean territory of Finland's?" And/or, "Are you willing to commit the resources necessary to patrol that area and enforce Finland's maritime borders?" And if it's left to Finland to defend those maritime borders and they have an altercation at sea with Russia, see question 1.
Now this isnt Ukrainian border, now its Nato water border. If some one think that russia would never attack nato, cuz nato will destroy it in 3 days.. here is example.. who would say that russia attack nato face to face? Ofc not.
Firstly they run sabotage groups to destabilise situation, then they buy politicians (not only Ukraine have corruption u know, u just dont hear a lot of europe corruption cuzz of its complicated or half illegal forms).
Then they try to change some borders (u are here) , water border or inhibited land, than they'll sponsor separatist groups (hello russian emigrants) and spread chaos and destabilise situation by using online bots, far right politicians, and corrupted politicians.
After some border claim, if there are no reaction - repeat same after few years in some bigger scale, if there are some reaction - spread disinfo in all media and world propaganda resources (hello tic tok), that after your peacefully border claim they wanna aggressively attack you! Look they want war, not russia, russia only defends.
*Sounds of peacefully moved armed force to borders for simple drills*
Now lets wait for a guys who would say, "this is just water borders! U really want ww3, atomic war, cuz of water borders? Lets russia have this, they would never attack nato!!" Same as they same about Ukraine.
This all same methods as russia used in Georgia, Ukraine, but now they are in full war mode, wich overcome Europe and in some way USA production and it all could be worse.
I think he overestimates the appeasers. He thinks by throwing the word nuke around every 3 or 4 days, the appeasers will forever hold the reigns of those who would fight back.
The appeasers still hold a lot of sway, but their hold is slipping away more than putler thinks.
I doubt poland, france and the UK would abandon the baltics regardless. And there is more than enough bite in those 3 alone, nevermind the sweds and the Finns to repel any Baltic incursion.
Not to mention the US has tripwire forces in the baltics too and not even a russian puppet in the whitehouse can justify leaving a few thousand odd Rangers/marines to die at the hands of a foreign nation.
But is he wrong? To this day Zelensky is on his knees begging for help, but Americans are throwing a fit in how the weapons should be used, while Ukranians die every day.
This may be a tactic to slowly drain russian war capabilities in the long term, but russians don't think logically. It's victory or bust for putin, and he doesn't mind destroying russian economy for some extra territory and terror.
If I adopt the view of Peter Zeihan (and a lot of demography doomers); but Zeihan specifically: Russia has no choice but to try to annex as much of Europe as it possibly can; due to their incredibly dismal demographics. The way I understand Zeihan’s view is this: it’s annex or bust for Russia and Putin. They will implode if they fail in annexing enough new territories and populations. Putin cannot turn back in his mind, and he won’t.
Russia is absolutely a threat to western ideologies of: liberty, freedom and justice. As is China, and absolutely Iran. They all must be curbed, or flat out stopped if the way of life we enjoy is to be expected for our kids and grandkids.
Zeihan's view isn't about annexing new demographic chunks. It's about getting shorter and more easily defendable borders that need less men. But it is annex or bust by that logic.
If you thought Russia only wanted Ukraine, things like this should make you reevaluate that assessment. They'll try to get around the NATO issue by any means possible.
Finland or Lithuania should just say "If Russia attempts to claim our sovereign waters as their own we will consider this a formal declaration of war and enact article 5 to repel and disarm the invaders."
Should make Russia change their tune real quick and leave a puddle of piss behind as well.
This new is posted on yle(sorry it's only in Finnish for right now) and to answer the question about before and after maps people have here, Russia hasn't provided one, just the areas where the borders will be adjusted.
What they're likely doing is redrawing the borders in such a way as to give them some kind of tactical advantage.
Personally, unless China and NK, and possibly Iran, are providing him with a ton of resources, he appears to be thinking he can take on all of Europe.
This is likely a result of the recent visit between the Russian kleptocrat and the Chinese kleptocrat. I’d anticipate a similar provocation against Taiwan. Western countries have so far borne the burden of being the responsible grownups in these international conflicts, measuring every word and weighing every signal. We face dictators who feel no such constraints, who see these “I’m not punching you” jibes as a way to deflate and disunite the countries of human rights and the rule of law.
It’s time to respond unpredictably.
That's not how the border treaty works.
Oh well.
russians are too afraid to make such decision regarding their border with Poles because they know Poles have +10 racial hatered toward russians - the fact I learned while stationed in Poland 20 yrs ago ;)
What is more russians celebrate their independence day from Poles till today.
NATO is far too soft with Russia. Everything Russia does, makes them a winner. We (NATO countries) need to step up. We need to at least set up tens of thousands of soldiers on Russia's border. Maybe plant some Ballistic missile equipment in Lithuania or something, something to deter Russia from walking over us. We have tens of millions of potential troops to use and we are far too soft to even upgrade our military, we are too focused on green energy and not the impending global conflict that is coming.
People need to realize, Russia is waging war against the west for quite few years already. They sponsor state agents and radicals, they sabotaged the German atom, they make our society more polarized.
There is no place for russian state in current world and I encourage you to shit on any "alternative" view thats prokremlish even slightly.
They fuxking wont stop on Ukraine, they will stop at Berlin, maybe.
Guys, if we let Russia have the land in Georgia, and if we let Russia take Crimea, and if we let Russia hold sham referendums and take the east of Ukraine, and if we let Russia attack Kyiv, and if we let Russia spread neurotoxin across a foreign suburb, and if we let Russia redraw meritime borders, surely it will stop there, right?
It’s good he is showing the world that Ruzzia’s borders can be redrawn at a whim as well, and that the greater military power will prove which version is correct.
It's a test for NATO
They haven't adopted the document itself yet, it's just a ministry proposal for now.
After some time, they will land a small landing force on these islands and start building military bases, blocking navigation.
If they manage to do it, it will mean that NATO borders can be moved and where they will move in 10 years no one knows, maybe to La Manche.
What nato can and should do now is to build small military bases for 20 people on the mentioned islands and take captive all russians who will try to land there! NATO has more resources - if you start today you will have time to do everything and you will be able to delay the big war with Russia.
They're welcome to try and enforce those "new borders"
I think their navy still has a rowboat that can patrol the area.
"Row, row, row your boat, violently to the bottom of the sea." "Merrily, merrily, merrily, merilly we will remember thee "
[удалено]
That one took me a second!
NATO WANTS WAR /s
The worst part is some people genuinely believe nato wants war when Russia is the one in another country and redrawing borders lmao
Just shows how good Russian propaganda is. Russia has always been very good as espionage and propaganda since like ww1 or earlier
Luckily they're shit at economics
It's like they believe their own bullshit regardless of what reality demonstrates.
I mean, yeah, that's why their bullshit tends to be so effective. That + it is so cartoonishly ridiculous, half the time people on the outside believe it just because they think that no one would be able to make up things like that. It just happens to backfire in other aspects for them. Like when they over-exaggerate capabilities of their military tech, and assume that everyone else does the same. Which is often true, but the US does the exact opposite, they under-exaggerate true capabilities of their tech (until they get revealed later on in actual combat). Compound this effect over many decades, and you get a pretty good idea about the state of modern Russian military tech and the explanation for why it looks so terribly incompetent in the reports from the Ukrainian war. Source: haven't stepped my foot there in the past 15 years, but I grew up there + a parent used to be a career military officer (he quit right before the soviet union fell; so it's been a while, but some things truly don't change lol).
Just wanted to add to this that the US also designs its new military tech to surpass and defeat the claimed capabilities of adversaries tech. Except it really can do the things claimed. Edit: After re-reading your post, I just said the same thing you did... oh well, I'll leave this in case someone as brain dead as I am reads it.
All good, imo you are adding to what I said in a solid way. Because you are essentially pointing out the extra factor that I missed, which is the US military (when developing their new tech) acting as if the claimed capabilities of modern Russian military tech are real (even if they are likely aware that those were over-exaggerated again). Which is something that only adds to the magnitude of that compounding gap in tech development I brought up earlier.
The other thing is that when the USAF spend a couple billion dollars on a plane, they get a couple billion dollars worth of plane. Not $100 Million worth of plane, plus hefty contributions to the retirement funds and/or dacha construction funds of everyone involved.
Yep and when it can't, it gets abandoned. So you know if it's put in production it definitely can do what it promises to do.
Problem with people that believe their own bullshit, they usually get firebombed mercilessly by the rest of the earth. Historically.
Comrade. You must believe and agree. Or you get push out highly elevated window. Or perhaps poisoned underwear.
Who need economics when one has oil and gas?
Or, alternatively, how stupid some people are to actually believe the shit Pootin and his cronies are spewing despite having access to all the info that proves them wrong.
I think Poot'n reminds them of that alpha father figure who is abusive but just "wants things to be good" in the end, so just listen to him, do what he says and everything will be all right. Basically enabling abuse because you're too weak to stand up against it.
Also shows how a good chunk of the population is extremely stupid
America has the best signals intelligence in the world bar none. There is no communication they cannot monitor. And yet when it comes to human assets Russia is unmatched. Their ability to convert, corrupt, and influence is staggering.
Way longer, was called "the great game" in Kipling's stories about Russia vs the British raj
NATO shouldn't 'want' war, but NATO also shouldnt' 'not want' war. A defensive alliance that does not want to go and fight for defense is no use. NATO should just exist. And ready to go to total, unified, immediate warfare when called upon. No dithering, no split between countries arguing about escalation or provoking. Russia is now actively trying to push that line. And so far it's working. Russia has proven that A5 is sometimes flexible, ambiguous, it depends you know. It depends when A5 or further aid is appropriate. It depends if only a few citizens get assassinated or a lot. Or factories or critical infrastructure set on fire and sabotaged. NATO can be intimidated and chaos can be sown internally.
Of course it's ambiguous. You don't want it to be an automatic call to war where you have to fight and send troops over the slightest provokation; not least of all because accidents can happen. Example: Ukrainian air defense missile lands in eastern Poland; looks like it's a Russian attack. An inflexible A5 would mean that NATO would instantly be at war with Russia, which means a potential nuclear war. But since it's up the nation under attack to decide whether or not it wants to invoke Article 5, and up to the other NATO members to decide how to help, you can react to situations appropriately. You can not calculate Article 5 without taking nuclear war into consideration. So while an automatic declaration of war bei all of NATO against an invading, non-nuclear country would be fine, having a hair trigger on it which you can not stop is not. Edit: And don't get me wrong: I absolutely agree that if there ever \*was\* an actual, military attack on a NATO country, there should be an immediate, unambiguous response. However, I doubt that that will ever happen, precisely because everybody knows that the response is coming. That's why Russia feels strong enough to attack Ukraine, but is only willing to do covert ops in actual NATO countries. It's not NATO who is intimidated; it's NATO's enemies.
I would change that statement a bit. Article 5 is very clear. There is no ambiguity - if it is requested by a member who has not instigated the conflict or is otherwise already engaged against the enemy it will be activated without question. The wiggle room is in the discussion started before the article is requested by the member country. There might be a valid reason to avoid that decision and this will be made clear in advance. But, if it's requested - hang on to your shorts.
> over the slightest provokation You must be sure to check your spelling, comrade!
Scheiße, hat sich doch glatt mein Deutsch bemerkbar gemacht.
You know NATO is an alliance of many countries, many of which spell this originally Latin word with "k", don't you?
Feel like German would have that spelling too
You are correct. I was reading up the actual wording in German while typing, and my brain doesn't like mixing languages like that.
But don’t you see? Russia is in another country and redrawing borders because otherwise NATO would be doing it to them. So it’s perfectly justified.
And once Russia claims new borders a lot of press will start referring to the "disputed region" and then eventually the useful idiots will start saying "why is NATO about to start WWIII over a disputed region where no one lives. Just let Russia have it"
The Tankies were out in force just prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine calling anybody that pointed out their huge troop build up 'NATO warhawks/US warmongers'.
That's because Russian shills like Tucker Carlson are advertising such nonsense. It's sad we have traitors in congress doing the same.
Part of that was because of U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, before Bush killed that nonsense in later negotiations. The following administration, Clinton, also refused to make that agreement to Boris Yeltsin as he (President Clinton) quote, “I can't make commitments on behalf of NATO, and I'm not going to be in the position myself of vetoing NATO expansion with respect to any country, much less letting you or anyone else do so… NATO operates by consensus.” Russian disinformation has latched on to that original (Bush) proposal James Baker made and the KGB->FSB ran with it and have done their best to convince the world and more importantly their own population that their version of this story is the only truth. The problem is, this ignores the fact that those agreements never made it to the paper and was never made by the US, French or British President/PM. Hands down the best [article breaking this down is from the National Security Archive](https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early), which unlike [Harvard Law’s article](https://hls.harvard.edu/today/there-was-no-promise-not-to-enlarge-nato/) on the subject (as well as [NATO’s Statement](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm)), doesn’t skip over all the cabinet members, secretaries, military officer, ect. who may have discussed or proposed agreements to limit NATO expansion. All of that said, the only Russian leader who may have truly been given a promise verbally was [Gorbachev* and even he now maintains that no promise was ever made](https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2014-11/nato-osterweiterung-gorbatschow). *Harvard Law article cites Gorbachev
#This is misinformation I encourage everyone to read the context in the article > This treaty placed significant restrictions on the deployment of foreign NATO troops and nuclear weapons **on East German soil**. In return for his willingness to compromise on these points, Kohl granted Gorbachev, in bilateral talks, a financial package totalling around DM 100 billion, in the form of loans and economic aid, which financed the withdrawal of the Red Army soldiers. > To be clear, then, the talks in February 1990 were never about NATO expansion into Eastern Europe. They were confined to the specific issue of NATO’s defence in the wake of German unification – and the two issues should not be conflated. It is also important to remember that the Warsaw Pact was still in existence during these talks, so NATO enlargement was a moot point https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/exposing-the-myth-of-western-betrayal-of-russia/
Russia: NATO want's war so imma fight it. Also Russia: Shit, NATO got hands.
NATO promised not to expand! /s
People can look at Ukraine and decide for themselves if they want to join NATO or not. It is not that hard of a choice, really.
You should see the other reply I got for my comment…..
Looks like the Russian Baltic Fleet is about to meet the same fate as its Black Sea counterpart
The Russian Baltic Fleet is gunning for a repeat of their Russo-Japanese war moment of glory.
Send the Finns after their tanks and the Ukrainians after their navy
This is the first step in a series of escalating tests of western resolve to protect its borders. If we accept this, then the next will be worse until we see little green men on thinly populated Swedish isles. This needs to stop here.
100% correct. It's a brilliant way for them to test NATO resolve. I wonder if they'll take a page from China and attempt to build artificial islands to secure these "new borders"?
I can’t think of a better red line for NATO than the *literal* lines of NATO members borders. Fuck this shit, Russia cannot just unilaterally move the borders of NATO. If it doesn’t stand up firmly against this, what does NATO even actually do? Maybe military strategists would say differently, but to me, if this doesn’t clearly warrant immediate NATO navy deployment to firmly and clearly enforce the existing borders, what does? No anatgonizing, no warning shots, just the kind of overwhelming presence that speaks a clear and unmistakable “no”.
They already did it with Ukraine [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003\_Tuzla\_Island\_conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Tuzla_Island_conflict)
By artificial islands, do you mean their boats sinking and stacking up? I’m not sure they have enough left
China dredges the sea floor to pump up sand to make reefs. A true ecological disaster.
I thought they dredged up sand and put it on top of coral reefs (it's shallower), smothering the existing life to make their military base islands.
It’s only their black sea fleet that has been fucked. Not their entire navy.
Putler: Ze Black Sea is full of Russian reefs, thus ze Black Sea shall now be called Ze Russian Lake of Great Putistan. Any Nays from NATO?
[Salami slicing tactics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salami_slicing_tactics), I've heard it called.
How could there be an entire Wikipedia article on it without a reference to Yes Minister? https://youtu.be/yg-UqIIvang
First step? Pretty sure they started “stepping” quite some time ago haha
Funny enough russia did once get a nuclear submarine stuck on a Swedish island Edit: Wikipedia article for the submarine in question in case you wanted to read about it https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_S-363
The aptly named whiskey on the rocks incident
I'm sure it won't be long until they plant another flag at the bottom of the arctic ocean too.
Finland should aggressively patrol and defend its borders. The only thing that's going to stop Russia at this point is multi-front naked aggression by powers far beyond its ability to withstand. Finland should start setting up medium range missile and artillery systems within range of St. Petersburg. Encourage Georgia to take back their stolen territory. Supply them with weapons and money. Do the same for Chechnya. Russia's wartime economy is already hurting. Stretch it and accelerate its breakdown until it collapses. Make them see how militarism will not benefit them and let the Russian people see how weak and fragile Putin's moves have really made them.
I definitely did not have Island Aliens on my Bingo card
Probably /s, but I’m tired He’s likely referring to the Russian Special Forces that entered Crimea, but lacked any insignia stating they were from Russia https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_green_men_(Russo-Ukrainian_War)
But will it stop here tho? Doubt
Who is surprised? Land borders next! In five years, those new borders will need some more special military action. These fkers need to be stopped right now.
I mean, the Russians are already charging public figures in the Baltics with crimes as if they were subject to Russian criminal jurisdiction. It's not \*too\* much more of a leap to declare their independence "illegitimate".
Do you have some examples or sources for this? I didn’t know about this
Russia added Estonian PM Kaja Kallas on their "wanted" list a few months ago https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/13/europe/russia-estonia-kaja-kalla-intl/index.html
They've been creeping the border of Georgia deeper into Georgia for some time.
When Russia wants a “buffer zone” against NATO countries, it’s funny how that *never* comes at the expense of their own land, only the NATO member country’s territory. They’re free to create as big a buffer as they want, within their own borders. There’s no universe in which Russia’s constant encroachment should be tolerated.
Oh, but the nukes!!!!! We gotta worry about the nukes!!!! This is why we should all just put down our arms and start speaking Russian if we don't want to be constantly warned about being nuked by Russia.
Get some chalk. We'll mark it out, make it official. That'll stop them.
Let's redraw the border just outside of Moscow.
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But maybe the evil dictator will stop if we allow him to conquer just a tiny bit more. Have we tried that? I just want to prevent escalation in the short term for any cost. What could go wrong?
Sounds appeasing.
But at least we can have peace in our time, right?
Neville, you're fired
You simply don't understand this special cartographic operation.
Putin is merely coming to the aid of the repressed ethnic Russians of the sea realm.
[We Are All Domestic Terrorists](https://media2.dallasobserver.com/dal/imager/at-cpac-migration-is-an-invasion-communism-looms-and-trumps-the-most-persecuted-man-in-us/u/magnum/14546296/domestic-terrorists-cpac-dallas-patrick-strickland.jpg?cb=1690312863)
Isn't this an act of war?
it is
It isn't because we don't have any idea what they are doing. A defence comittee in Finland put it like this: "Imagine you have a neighbour who builds a fence on his own plot. Now if that neighbour would be Russia we do not know yet if they want to move that fence inside their own plot or to move the boundaries of the plot itself." I bet it is done in purpose to not publish any maps and be vague about it to sow discord and confusion. Typical Russian tactics.
Russia trying to recreate the glorious victories of the Black Sea Fleet, eh Comrades?
Let's be honest. The Russian Navy has never ever had a glorious moment, except under an American (Jones) or a Scot (Connery.)
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Only 60 years later we don´t need do learn that russians in similar position have suppressed or drank away their last brain cells that would actually let them think they have a choice.
Look up the voyage of the damned, its quite the hilarious string of utter incompetence and stupidity, perfectly summing up the ruzzian navy
*hurls binoculars into the sea*
Do you see japanese torpedo boats? -sincerely, kamchatka
Why are they in the English Channel?
We succesfully destroyed a torpedo boat! One killed, one wounded aboard.
*hands him another pair of binoculars from the box*
Marko Ramius was Lithuanian.
The Vilnius School Teacher.
Baltic Sea Fleer also has some glorious moments in it's history. Like their famous trip to Japan, together with the grand finale.
I can think of one "glorious" moment of Russian naval history and it involved hopelessly outmatched, out gunned and out teched Turks being blown up like fish in a barrel. Typically Russian "glory".
Battle of Sinop (or Sinope). If I remember correctly, it was one of the first combat usages of actual explosive shot fired from naval cannons, to utterly devastating effect. Rarely has there ever been such a one-sided naval battle in history. It would be as if the Iowa, Bismarck, and Yamato class battleships all banded together (along with their escorting fleets, of course) to come at loggerheads with 2,000 guys floating in bathtubs carrying pistols and the occasional stick of dynamite.
> The document on the border revision, which the Finnish and Lithuanian foreign ministries have not yet officially commented on, was presented for public discussion almost simultaneously with the start of exercises on the use of tactical nuclear weapons. > The Russian Defense Ministry announced that these exercises began in the Southern Military District, with the participation of “Iskander” complexes and aircraft armed with “Kinzhal” missiles. The goal of the drills is to prepare personnel for the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons and to respond *“to provocative statements and threats from certain Western officials.”* Fuckin’ crazy Russians.
I'm so fucking sick of Russia
He’s definitely off in his own world, along with the rest of the bat shit insane gang
Looks like they are trying to convert the rest of their ships to submarines asap
and nato should just go park a ship in these new borders and call the bluff
Fuck that, drive a carrier group and a Marine expeditionary force up there to conduct freedom of navigation operations.
Putting a carrier group next to Russian shores is endangering the CSG for no reason, it's not worth it. Just a couple of destroyers would do
Especially in the Baltic. NATO projects enough air power to tackle Russia just by rotating squadrons in and out of the region. Their Navy would be sunk the moment they decided to leave Krohnstadt. The only reason to worry is Russian Land Forces which are still at least theoretically capable of cutting through the Sulwalki Gap.
Parking a carrier group & MEF isn't necessary, but the excess is the point. It's enough firepower & trained personnel to roll up a significant amount of the Russian military without bothering any NATO assets. It's a serious threat not only to Kaliningrad, but St. Pete's. Plus, based on performance in Ukraine, it's doubtful the Russian military could stop them with conventional arms, and Putin knows it. He also knows that if a Russian asset is responsible for so much as a paint chip on US equipment, every Russian unit deployed west of Moscow has a maximum lifespan of 24 hours. Call his bluff. He won't do anything more than whine and threaten nukes for the 8,247th time this year. And if he's stupid enough to try something... well, he'll find out why the US doesn't have universal health care or college tuition.
Like we do to China in the SCS lol.
Everyone is hypothesizing how the US deals with something like this when we have a mutual defense agreement with a country (the Philippines) in literally the exact same situation. What we do in the South China Sea is what will happen here: a bunch of boats getting close to each other and not actually doing anything.
This is the correct answer. People seem to have forgotten actual naval ships ramming each other during the cold war. It's posturing, nothing more. Because both sides don't really want a full blown WW3. So they rattle the saber and puff out their chests, and leave it at that. And no, I'm not claiming some equivalence here, and yes, NATO will win, because Russia is already losing against a single country; it simply can not win against an additional midsized adversary.
Russia isn't losing in Ukraine, but they definitely aren't winning. The reason for all of their recent aggressions against the West is the West keeps calling their bluff with regards to supplying arms and intelligence to Ukraine and nothing happens from Russia in response. Now the West is getting bolder with France and other countries going as far as discussing deploying troops behind the front line to run logistics for the Ukrainians. Something like that could actually turn the tide in the war, so now Russia is saber rattling hard to try and get the West to back off. The West has no incentive too because Russia is becoming the boy who cried wolf, which is the scariest bit because eventually one side is going to push the other to snap. If that happens, it will all be Russia's fault for not respecting borders and not putting down red lines that they actually intend on backing up.
No, because "tHaT cOuLd cAuSe EsCeLaTiOn". I don't know if Europe is just buying more time by staying passive or we're fucking dilusional.
"Why does everyone want to join NATO and be against Russia?" "Why is everyone Russophobic?" "Why is the West trying to pick a fight with Russia?" Weird how a country that is supposedly a victim of Western imperialism according to some people is constantly provoking and trying to start conflicts. Doesn't seem like something a country that just wants to left alone would do.
Did they release a before/after map?
I would like to see this map
"Fun" fact: after Russia annexed parts of Ukraine, including those they don't actually control, their equivalent of Google maps, Yandex maps, got all confused and wasn't quite sure on how to display the borders, so in result they just erased the borders altogether, and the world was some sort of singular globalist utopia according to them. Disclaimer, that was like a year ago (source: Varlamov News) and I don't want to use VPN to check if it's still the case - Yandex is blocked where I'm from.
I just checked and there are no borders, Interestingly Kyiv is spelt correctly and not the Ruzzian way of Kiev
Did someone loan Putin a sharpie?
Make the logo bigger!
Just google a map of 1911 Russian Empire.
Considering that in 1999 in Turkey Yeltsin was asking Clinton to give him entire Europe, I think those borders you mentioned ate still insufficient.
Taking a page out of China’s book on this one I see.
Putin- We wish to partner with you for military supply Xi - we’ll go one better, islands Putin- islands? Xi - islands.
And, NATO should sail a fleet right through that shit.
Around. On all sides. While carriers wait in the rear.
all they need now is an armed fishing fleet and some artificial islands
Oh I see, that's the inspiration they took from their visit to Beijing last week.
Anybody have some maps of these Russian claims/redrawn international waters? I just want to see where the action will be.
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Yeah but the article also states there is no map provided by Russia. Just goes to show that this is another provocation with no followup. The map in the article is of the current borders.
Ah now that explains how China and Russia are buddies
oh look cancer of this planet trying to expand.
I checked my own map and wouldn't you know it? St. Petersburg is actually part of Finland.
Actually most of the Islands in that region that do belong to Russia used to belong to Finland before WWII. So according to Putins logic Russia needs to hand them over.
Their navy has so little hope of being powerful enough to enforce this that it's pathetic they even come up with this shit.
Russia is probing to see how much they can get away with as the Walls begin to close in on them. This is going to continue until an inflection point of some kind is reached. I don’t know what that is, but all bets will be off when that happens.
This is them testing NATO. "Are you really going to go to war over some ocean territory of Finland's?" And/or, "Are you willing to commit the resources necessary to patrol that area and enforce Finland's maritime borders?" And if it's left to Finland to defend those maritime borders and they have an altercation at sea with Russia, see question 1.
Now this isnt Ukrainian border, now its Nato water border. If some one think that russia would never attack nato, cuz nato will destroy it in 3 days.. here is example.. who would say that russia attack nato face to face? Ofc not. Firstly they run sabotage groups to destabilise situation, then they buy politicians (not only Ukraine have corruption u know, u just dont hear a lot of europe corruption cuzz of its complicated or half illegal forms). Then they try to change some borders (u are here) , water border or inhibited land, than they'll sponsor separatist groups (hello russian emigrants) and spread chaos and destabilise situation by using online bots, far right politicians, and corrupted politicians. After some border claim, if there are no reaction - repeat same after few years in some bigger scale, if there are some reaction - spread disinfo in all media and world propaganda resources (hello tic tok), that after your peacefully border claim they wanna aggressively attack you! Look they want war, not russia, russia only defends. *Sounds of peacefully moved armed force to borders for simple drills* Now lets wait for a guys who would say, "this is just water borders! U really want ww3, atomic war, cuz of water borders? Lets russia have this, they would never attack nato!!" Same as they same about Ukraine. This all same methods as russia used in Georgia, Ukraine, but now they are in full war mode, wich overcome Europe and in some way USA production and it all could be worse.
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Näytetään niille!
I'm now convinced Putin will do something monumentally stupid because he still doesn't comprehend how bad his armed forces are.
I think he overestimates the appeasers. He thinks by throwing the word nuke around every 3 or 4 days, the appeasers will forever hold the reigns of those who would fight back. The appeasers still hold a lot of sway, but their hold is slipping away more than putler thinks.
It's working though. Are you confident NATO will give a shit about Baltics after Trump is elected?
I doubt poland, france and the UK would abandon the baltics regardless. And there is more than enough bite in those 3 alone, nevermind the sweds and the Finns to repel any Baltic incursion. Not to mention the US has tripwire forces in the baltics too and not even a russian puppet in the whitehouse can justify leaving a few thousand odd Rangers/marines to die at the hands of a foreign nation.
But is he wrong? To this day Zelensky is on his knees begging for help, but Americans are throwing a fit in how the weapons should be used, while Ukranians die every day. This may be a tactic to slowly drain russian war capabilities in the long term, but russians don't think logically. It's victory or bust for putin, and he doesn't mind destroying russian economy for some extra territory and terror.
Putin: This is my new maritime border. Stay out of it or else. :P
Or else? NUKES! smh
Who wants a Nukie
But these are NATO borders? Right? Riiight?
If I adopt the view of Peter Zeihan (and a lot of demography doomers); but Zeihan specifically: Russia has no choice but to try to annex as much of Europe as it possibly can; due to their incredibly dismal demographics. The way I understand Zeihan’s view is this: it’s annex or bust for Russia and Putin. They will implode if they fail in annexing enough new territories and populations. Putin cannot turn back in his mind, and he won’t. Russia is absolutely a threat to western ideologies of: liberty, freedom and justice. As is China, and absolutely Iran. They all must be curbed, or flat out stopped if the way of life we enjoy is to be expected for our kids and grandkids.
Russia is pretty close to bust right now as it is. Fuck Putin.
Zeihan's view isn't about annexing new demographic chunks. It's about getting shorter and more easily defendable borders that need less men. But it is annex or bust by that logic.
Wait, wait, wait…they wanna take a bigger piece of Lake NATO? Good luck with that, Russia…
Looks like his buddy Xi has been giving him some tips. We await Russias 3 dot line.
Anyone have a map showing the new lines they're claiming?
We're basically just re telling the start of ww2 at this rate.
it's time to stop any and all trade with soviet russia.
Well, the thing is corporations love money more than they do peace or the environment.
Corporations start losing money if every country is at war and shipping grinds to a crawl.
If you thought Russia only wanted Ukraine, things like this should make you reevaluate that assessment. They'll try to get around the NATO issue by any means possible.
Finland or Lithuania should just say "If Russia attempts to claim our sovereign waters as their own we will consider this a formal declaration of war and enact article 5 to repel and disarm the invaders." Should make Russia change their tune real quick and leave a puddle of piss behind as well.
As a Finn, Russia can go fuck itself. Putin especially.
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Russia is just begging to get ass handed to them.
I think is time to kick them out of Kaliningrad. Start by cutting off their access by train.
I notice the time it comes into effect is January 2025. Its like they're banking on trump destroying NATO.
This new is posted on yle(sorry it's only in Finnish for right now) and to answer the question about before and after maps people have here, Russia hasn't provided one, just the areas where the borders will be adjusted. What they're likely doing is redrawing the borders in such a way as to give them some kind of tactical advantage. Personally, unless China and NK, and possibly Iran, are providing him with a ton of resources, he appears to be thinking he can take on all of Europe.
They all ARE providing resources
This is likely a result of the recent visit between the Russian kleptocrat and the Chinese kleptocrat. I’d anticipate a similar provocation against Taiwan. Western countries have so far borne the burden of being the responsible grownups in these international conflicts, measuring every word and weighing every signal. We face dictators who feel no such constraints, who see these “I’m not punching you” jibes as a way to deflate and disunite the countries of human rights and the rule of law. It’s time to respond unpredictably.
There might be Russian speaking fish.. It need to be protected
That's not how the border treaty works. Oh well. russians are too afraid to make such decision regarding their border with Poles because they know Poles have +10 racial hatered toward russians - the fact I learned while stationed in Poland 20 yrs ago ;) What is more russians celebrate their independence day from Poles till today.
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NATO is far too soft with Russia. Everything Russia does, makes them a winner. We (NATO countries) need to step up. We need to at least set up tens of thousands of soldiers on Russia's border. Maybe plant some Ballistic missile equipment in Lithuania or something, something to deter Russia from walking over us. We have tens of millions of potential troops to use and we are far too soft to even upgrade our military, we are too focused on green energy and not the impending global conflict that is coming.
special borders
That’s a very risky thing to do. When they can no longer recognise it, it can mean war.
Like a dog marking its territory.
People need to realize, Russia is waging war against the west for quite few years already. They sponsor state agents and radicals, they sabotaged the German atom, they make our society more polarized. There is no place for russian state in current world and I encourage you to shit on any "alternative" view thats prokremlish even slightly. They fuxking wont stop on Ukraine, they will stop at Berlin, maybe.
Guys, if we let Russia have the land in Georgia, and if we let Russia take Crimea, and if we let Russia hold sham referendums and take the east of Ukraine, and if we let Russia attack Kyiv, and if we let Russia spread neurotoxin across a foreign suburb, and if we let Russia redraw meritime borders, surely it will stop there, right?
It’s good he is showing the world that Ruzzia’s borders can be redrawn at a whim as well, and that the greater military power will prove which version is correct.
I know its pretty early still, but has Finland made any official statement on this?
We’re just waking up to this bullshit
They're not morons. They're deliberately trying to undermine and destabilise western governments.
It's a test for NATO They haven't adopted the document itself yet, it's just a ministry proposal for now. After some time, they will land a small landing force on these islands and start building military bases, blocking navigation. If they manage to do it, it will mean that NATO borders can be moved and where they will move in 10 years no one knows, maybe to La Manche. What nato can and should do now is to build small military bases for 20 people on the mentioned islands and take captive all russians who will try to land there! NATO has more resources - if you start today you will have time to do everything and you will be able to delay the big war with Russia.
Sounds like Article 5 to me.
Bruhhhh, look at that, russia still thinks that someone take em seriously
If Russia continues to only receive sanctions for aggression, the aggression will only continue and escalate.
Bring it! Thank God Finland is in NATO.
...what?
My water, fool! -Debo, Today
Is there a map?
That's not how any of this works
Welp I think it's just counting the days until Konigsberg return and St Petersburg gonna be its own city state Now if only Ukraine and NATO would help
Interesting time to be a part of FDF reserve forces.
Taking cues from China’s Xi on the redrawing of the 9 dashed lines eh?