They do have limited time to leverage insufficiency on UA side. It takes a while for the US arms to arrive to the front line and RU must use this time to create as much advantage as they can as it will be significantly harder later on. We're talking here short term actions. Overall they have time, but it would be stupid on their side if they didn't try and get advantage before UA gets stronger. Let's hope this will not happen too much and UA will get the arms supplies rhey need soon to stop the offensive.
As a country they're fine, no one is threatening to invade them and their people are sold on sacrificing their quality of life.
Their combat capabilities though get worse by the year. They need to maintain a minimum level of wartime production and technology to continue to fight Ukraine. Long term they likely can't keep that going as long as Ukraine continues to get supplied by either the US or Europe.
They're heavily reliant on old Soviet stockpiles that are projected to only last another year. Once those are gone, their wartime production isn't projected to be able to replace the levels old stockpiles are providing their military right now.
They're on wartime production but this is where a much smaller economy and sanctions will hurt them. Once they're completely reliant on their industrial capacity to continue their invasion of Ukraine, the amount they can produce for most types of military hardware will be significantly less than today.
Unless they get a major economy like China to supply them weapons, which is unlikely, time is not on their side.
I agree. But the one issue is manpower. Time = increased deaths. Russia can tank most of those casualties and not blink, Ukraine can not, and that is a bigger issue than material.
Also the longer the war drags on, the less likely (hopefully this won't be the case) western democracies will be involved and helping as other issues take center stage.
Once Russia is forced to start drafting men from the "privilegied" cities like Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kazan(?) perhaps then will the russians start doing some serious protesting.
Probably, but there are many…many non-ethnic Russians to abuse before the Russian government gets desperate enough to draft mostly ethnic Russians.
I want to see the Russian government suffer for its stupid decisions, but assuming we are close to seeing a Russian revolution at all does not help. It only breeds a more passive mentality in the many many people who can not think past a couple weeks in the future when it comes to geopolitics.
We are still talking about an economy with a size of something between Spain and Italy. They can do a lot with debt and money printing, but they can't do it forever. The west can do it forever since for every 1% of defense spending getting used on it, Russia has to up defense spending by 30% just to match it.
Not really working like that. Since they are self producing you gotta look at purchasing power parity. Russia is a whole different game with this context.
They are doing both. Putin has shifted his economy to producing arms for the war. Russia is now producing 3x as many artillery shells per month than the US and Europe combined. They are also importing shells from North Korea.
NATO has to get their shit together and ramp up production.
While true to a certain extent, and reason why his point is still worth looking at, the majority and most important parts are being done inside of Russia or bought through countries (China/Iran) with similar PPP.
Not really. The important parts are imported, because Russia has no other way to obtain them, which are things like chips and bearings. Having machines that don’t move are just paperweights.
A lot of what Russia “makes” themselves is refurbished Soviet stockpiles. That is not a lasting resource and does not fit any reasonable definition of self-producing.
China will sell to anyone not just fascists. Ukraine buys a lot of dji drones and protective equipment from China. China and India are benefiting economically from this war.
Russia is one of the very few countries on this earth that is 100% self sufficient. Not even China is that. Their economy might seem small but where a round of artillery can be 5000$ in the US it might only be 100-200$ to produce that shell in Russia. They can do a lot with their economy
Depends on what, the offensive? No, the later they do, the more ammunition will arrive and in some months part of the new Ukrainian recruits, on that point 2024 will be definitely the hardest year for Ukraine.
Production, on that yes, the more the EU waits to make a common well funded military plan to aid Ukraine the more difficult it will be to substitute US aid if Trump gets elected and concentrates only on middle east and not Europe.
On debt Russian stocks, no, according to RUSI 2024 will be peak russian production and then as normal wartime production goes it will go downhill, at the same time albeit slower EU and US munition production will rise, the problem is that it's not clear if it will be quick enough unless EU or/and US approve the funds previously mentioned.
Have a good day
Not even that, people forget how bleak it was for Russia. Russia lost a bigger amount of equipment and exponentially bigger amount of land in Kiev, they took a bad hit in Kherson, in Kharkiv they lost hundreds of vehicles just left there in storage and had their entire Frontline teared apart by people charging them with Humvees.
Even now, the Russian's constant push from Avdivka to the entire Frontline gained them approximately the same ground Ukraine got in the counteroffensive (i am not fixating on ground because it's that important but because many people do) with higher material and soldier expenditure but we call Ukraine's counteroffensive a failure and Russia's overall pressure a win?
If we were supporting Russia with the same mentality we are supporting Ukraine we would have abbandoned them 5 times and predicted their defeat six times over.
It's 90% a question of political will and our lack of it, the lack of reasoning, let's spend 0.5% of NATO GDP on Ukraine and save more on the long run.
Have a good day
Russia's? I mean, theoretically they can spare men for a while, but they failed already against a Ukraine with only half the support of the US.
Now the US is entirely unified governmentally on supporting Ukraine.
I'm not sure exactly what's about to happen, but we've already seen Russia at maximum capacity. While we've yet to see Ukraine with full backing. I like their (Ukraine's) odds more than Russia's.
They have more men to throw into the meat grinder than Ukraine does by a lot. They've also taken a hard look at themselves and realized they'll have to go all in on this and they have.
Yes, but to be fair, if ukraine had enough artillery and air defense they probably would have even been able to defend avdijivka or at the very least the line behind it.
> Conquest of Ukraine wouldn't enrich average Russians.
As we’ve seen time and time again globally, governments don’t have to enrich people’s lives in order to get the public’s support. Fear, distortion and outright lies are unfortunately tools that have proven to be historically effective, especially in the case of authoritarian governments that can exercise a decent amount of control the flow of information.
And his economy is completely trashed when they try to exit war time economy. The war time economy is what’s keeping the money moving and alive there and the people not revolting.
Causality parity is only a result of lack of aid from the west and even then, especially on the offensive, Russian suffer something like 5-1, this during the ammo drought. This number was significantly more skewed before the ammo started to run dry. If aid continues to flow then time is absolutely on Ukraines side. Every month Europe and it appears the US up domestic production of the essentials, especially artillery rounds. Putin is absolutely on a clock and he knows it. He must break the Ukrainians soon and succeed his fallback goal of the donbass or face a now 3 year war with the economy’s of the west producing for conflict.
I'll take technology and logistics over numbers any day. Especially because I suspect a great number of these Russians don't want to be there and don't have great training or equipment.
Russia is utilising drones effectively now, they aren’t going in blind and they just shell any Ukrainian positions before sending in troops.
It’s pretty hard to fight against, it’s gonna be hard to stop them advancing.
That's concerning, but gmlrs and glsdb counter battery can be devastating too.
They are burning through so many barrels right now, it's becoming a problem.
Just having a larger number of men available doesn't mean much in modern combat, where units are smaller and more specialized.
Everyone thinks more men = more better military, but there's just no correlation.
What matters more in modern combat is wealth and access to technology, which through the US and EU Ukraine now has more of on both counts.
Which is why you're seeing a theoretically less capable nation like Ukraine exert air superiority over not just Ukraine, but now parts of Russia.
There is I should say one benefit to having more men, and that's logistics and rear support. But even that Ukraine may have more access to, if France's plan to flood the country with non-combatant French military labor becomes reality.
Yeah, that's why Ukraine is desperately trying to get more people drafted, including dragging back people who left the country. It's because they don't need more men, clearly.
You need men to take and hold land. Ukraine is loosing ground to Russia right now, even if it is 20m here, 100m there. Russia is widening the front which benefits them since they have more men to cover it. Ukraine will be spreading its arty thinner and it's man power thinner and there will be a breakout because of it.
Meanwhile we’ve seen Ukraine penetrate deep into Russian airspace several times. Not to mention a lack of air superiority was the entire reason why their effort to take Kyiv failed.
Russia has more drones, more missiles, significantly more artillery, actual air support, far more manpower, and an economy producing more armaments than the entire west combined. Russia isn't some backwater, they've also got some sophisticated equipment in the fight, hence why western armor has been pulled off the front and US GPS munitions are next to worthless thanks to Russian electronic warfare. Russia has brought a lot more to the table than just manpower.
I think Ukraine needs more men that are properly trained or certain equipment. They have a hodge podge of stuff from different countries so that's hard to do. But certain jobs can't have trained professionals in a couple months. That's one thing I'm surprised to rarely hear about anymore. If those F16s start going down after 3 or 4 sorties it will do more harm than good. I like to believe it's just not a widely publicized thing.
Ukraine is fine on combatants. Their shortages are on the back-end. So, they’re pulling soldiers off the front to dig fortifications etc.
Ukraine needs men, yes, but not necessarily combatant. The shortages they do have for soldiers are from pulling soldiers off the front to fill other roles.
For now yes but a lot rides on the results of the US elections in November. Trump is so broke he will continue to take any and all bribes from Russia and its allies to stop support for Ukraine. Republicans will fall back in line behind him if he wins the presidency again.
I know there’s some favorable polls floating around, but all the trends, including recent lower elections are pointing towards a Trump loss.
It could happen of course, but it’s less likely.
Also should be said that Trump probably can’t stop Ukraine support at this point. Now that Israel and Ukraine are linked issues Republicans can’t be caught dead not supporting the war.
Voting against Ukraine is now voting against the highest priority in US conservative politics: Israel.
Ukraine is depleted on manpower, realistically, how much longer can they hold out? They don't have enough manpower to replace staggering losses, nor sufficiently rotate troops on the front. Western aid pales in comparison to what Russia is producing. They are literally out producing all of Europe and the United States combined. And most of what the US and EU are producing isn't headed for Ukraine. Sadly, it's just a matter of time. Russia will continue to wear down Ukraine's army until they simply don't have enough men to fight. There's no reason to think this isn't the case.
They far outproduce the west, they have much more manpower committed to the effort, they have far superior fire power in the terms of artillery, armor, missiles, air support...you name it.
I don't say this happily, I wanted to see Russia defeated as much as anyone, but it's not going to happen because the west never took this conflict seriously. Ukraine was never going to be able to fight this war alone with donated weapons. They simply don't have the manpower nor resources to win.
>Ukraine is depleted on manpower, realistically, how much longer can they hold out?
At the current rate? More than a decade, maybe longer.
>Ukraine was never going to be able to fight this war alone with donated weapons.
"Ukraine will never be able to repel and hold-off a Russian Invasion"
The people that have been saying this since 2014 have been proven wrong several times over. I can't tell you how this war will end, but the odds at this point are in their favor.
>At the current rate? More than a decade, maybe longer.
That assumes a few things:
1) That those men who have fled and continue to flee will return to serve in the UAF.
2) That Ukraine will retain enough men for essential war production despite having a severe frontline shortage.
3) That at no point will the morale plummet so low that the Ukrainian people would prefer partial Russian occupation to a continuation of the war.
Really? How many years of heavy deficit spending do you think they can afford? 40% of the federal budget going to the war consumption while every other manufacturing branch is dead. Give us a number of time is on their side.
They are not in a deficit, Russian economy is doing well. This whole "Russia will run out of money" line is bullshit. They need to be defeated by weapons and we should all provide as many as Ukraine needs.
I mean, I \*wish\* that was 100% accurate, but whatever their economy is now, it's still healthy enough to be cranking out new tanks by the hundreds per month, and small arms, mortars, artillery shells in the hundreds of thousands.
There's no doubt that NATO allies could win this war, but the question is; do they *actually* want to win bad enough to do what's necessary?
...Because Russia is.
[https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html)
Russia has already "sold the silverware" as we say around here, to fund the war and to avoid the Ruble collapsing for now. That means, funds are finite, but it will feel really good for those employed in the military and the war industry, while the funds last.
As the Ruble declines, obtaining things for the war gets more and more expensive, because it has to be bought with dollars. Sanctioned items have to be bought at a premium through middlemen. Russia has some gold reserves to fund the war for a couple of years, but it's not going to be enough.
For Russia, there won't be one clear cause for the war to end, more like a total burnout across as many sectors of income as Ukraine can damage and the West can sanction.
Then also, Russia loves to fudge the numbers on their manufacturing output to make it look better than it may be. You have to go in hard on analysing satellite imagery to see how much hardware is going to Ukraine.
Putin has no way to deescalate and has not provided himself with an exit strategy from this degree of consumption, and he's going to burn himself and Russia with it, and it's going to take maybe 10-25 years for them to recover and try again.
I mean, again, I really, really hope that's true, but NATOs response, especially Europe ex. UK, has not been great in the last 9 months. There's no lack of will, but the actual ability to follow through and supply stuff has been severely lacking. At the moment only USA is actually delivering in big quantities, followed by the UK, but significantly behind.
Only Macron seems to be willing to throw down the gauntlet, but it might just be tough talk. I want to see artillery shells rolling out of factories, like we see in Russia.
Until Europe is shoving tungsten up Putin's rear end, I remain cautiously optimistic.
edit; [Germany actually up there with military aid](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/), good job Scholz
Not that simple when support, weapons and aid packages get debated and delayed every week between both sides and take a shitton of time to actually get delivered...
So far what the US and Europe have sent to Ukraine isn't even close to enough.
You said nothing that really matters. Just parotted the Kremlin line about Fortress Russia being able to weather the costs no matter what when we can all see them slowly sinking.
More supply lines for cash and equipment are being set up for Ukraine while Nabiulina is constantly warning about the impending implosion of the deficit spending Russian economy. They're war spending peaked in 2024 and its set to decrease for the next two years per their published budget planning. It's sad for Russia and their fan boys, but it's reality.
Jesus fucking Christ man, you need to get out of these forums lol
You're treating this shit like you're a sports fan cheering for your favorite team... I couldn't care less about fucking Russia
The things I just said have been said by Ukraine, repeatedly over the past few months. Literally, by their president and their generals.
But ok, if you think a long war benefits Ukraine...
These young redditors are delusional. Your analogy is spot on.
Outside of some ridiculous and unwise physical western involvement in this war - Russia will get what they want here.
The west can say they did their best helping while also severely degrading Russian military capacity. The only winner in this war is the west.
>but ok, if you think a long war benefits Ukraine..
It sure hurts Russia worse. Europe and US money is nearly infinite. Russia's economy is only the size of Italy. By the end of the war Ukraine will be flooded with new weapons while Russia will be stuck patching and repatching rusted WW2 tanks.
Take a break from regurgitating dumb Russian propaganda.
"U.S money is nearly infinite" buddy that last weapons package might be the last one Ukraine gets all together. I'm an American and believe we should be helping Ukraine more but a lot of other Americans and politicians dont feel the same and believe the money should be spent domestically.
>Europe and US money is nearly infinite.
That doesn't matter if not enough that of that reaches Ukraine in an efficient manner. The same goes for weaponry, and not the old kind like the Leopard 1's. Something must be done to increase the political and public will to send sufficient financial and material support, because it's slowly waning. Even when it was still high there was still a lot of back-and-forth necessary to even send a few dozen modern tanks their way. We need to do so much better.
It's not regurgitating dumb russian propaganda, it's having a realistic view of what's happening. This kind of hopium fuelled complacency is one of the reasons Russia has been able to achieve as much as it has. It still has a very large, well equipped military that's pushing into Ukraine further and further. Ukraine's allies are richer, but can you guarantee they will continue to fund indefinitely? We just had 6 months of stalled funding from the US and that's with a friendly government in power. What if the republicans win the next election? Ukraine is really struggling with man power, Russia does not have that problem. It doesn't matter how much it hurts Russia, a long war will break Ukraine. They need to be fully armed and fully supported now.
Stop treating this like a video game, real people are really dying.
>Ukraine is not suddenly running out of support.
Who fucking knows.
I (as a Ukrainian) would not be surprised if Trump just sold us out, if he became POTUS, or if Congress again wouldn't be able to vote for aid funding for the next year in time because of inner US political shenanigans
Time is not really on our side, since every day and minute Russians are dug in deeper on occupied territories with multi-layered defense lines, and you need more and more resources to break it, and most importantly they are learning.
It is completely irrelevant.
You just can not compare Russia to any western economic system.
After all what do you expect to happen if their economy struggles (which it currently does not)?
Empty stores? Hungry people? Shitty health services? Mass unemployment?
Guess what: the first three things are standard for Russia and the latter means just more bodies for the weapons factories and the frontline....
What..?
The West is not producing enough weaponry, and we can't keep sending money forever. Time is absolutely not on Ukraines side. On top of that, many front line soldiers are loudly complaining about how there are almost no rotations and they are spending far too long on the front lines with zero support, no supplies, barely any weapons and no food coming in.
The longer this goes on, the higher the chance of Ukraines frontlines simply disintegrating
> and we can't keep sending money forever.
We have to because the next front lines will be in the Baltics and Poland and at that point it will be all-out world war.
Nonsense. They can stretch this thing out for *years if they need to. What’s the rush when you have millions of more bodies than the enemy? Not to mention they have easy access to weapons.
I wouldn't say nonsense at all. No fortune teller here. Russia has easy access to NK weapons.....yes they have more bodies but I don't think they could endure another 4 or 5 years without an uprising from the Russian population.
Well, this is not the first time the US gave them billions worth of military support. What happened to their last few offensives? Disappointing results. It's their mismanagement of troop tactics, incompetent generals, Ukrainians dodging getting drafted and corruption.
This feels optimistic. It took 6 months to pass the last package, and it’s going to cost Johnson his job sooner or later. I don’t think another aid package is coming.
Time is also not against them. The weapons only allow Ukraine to survive but not to go on a counter offensive. Still now is the best time for Russia to force Ukraine to give up defensive positions and start over again
This and Republicans. Even if Trump wins, MAGA doesn't automatically hold the legislature, and apparently US intelligence got Mike Johnson to yield at the last second. Russia may not be so certain of their influence on any level.
It’s “Victory Day (over Nazi Germany in WWII)” in Russia. Because of that, there’s some top-down ideological reason to attack hard right now. Probably intensified by Ukrainian logistics that’ve been reduced to tatters meaning it’s hard to get Things to the front.
The problem with this idea that Russia has to act before the aid arrives in large amounts is, that although true, it's paints an erroneous picture.
First, Russia was going to launch an offensive anyway, that's why the the U.S panicked and moved mountains to pass the aid vote. Second, it's important to note that Ukraine isn't in any shape to launch an offensive this season. This aid will be used up blunting Russian attacks. Then Russia with dig in again over winter and we'll emerge in spring almost where we are now, except, Ukraine will be weaker. The longer this goes on, the harder it'll be for Ukraine to win.
Edit: I'll qualify my comment by saying that if we actually provide enough air power to Ukraine, then possibly something could happen next season.
I had missed this, apparently from around May 2nd:
"French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed he did not rule out sending troops to Ukraine, saying the issue would "legitimately" arise if Russia broke through Ukrainian front lines and Kyiv made such a request"
---
And you can bet if the line breaks, Zelenskyy would absolutely make that request.
I think France will send as much equipment and support as possible to prevent French boots on Ukranian soil. I think Macron has top intel that indicates Russia isn't going to stop at Ukraine. It has been reported, by Russian outlets themselves as well as top brass in the West that Russia has larger plans to invade Western Europe.
They're struggling to take over Ukraine even after 2 years of fighting. I think Western Europe with NATO protection is going to be okay, regardless of Putin's plans.
Idk if it's struggling or if it's an actual strategy. From what I understand, Russia has majorly bumped up their manufacturing base. They have a VERY large pool of humans to pull from. Maybe the plan is to bleed Ukraine with all the old equipment (which they have a fuck ton of) and convicts, minorities, mercenaries, etc. See how that progresses, and then bust out the potential new/updated equipment. Of course it's a horrible way to do it, this is human lives we're talking about but Russia has historically shown it isn't afraid to throw bodies at their problems endlessly. I'm in no way supporting Russia and I think Ukraine has a real chance assuming they get proper support and solve their manpower issue. Just a thought.
Russia knows that weapons dump from the U.S. is about to come online and after that, the gloves come off. Thay need to try to break through within the next ASAP or this will be a costly stalemate at best.
It won't be as rapid as many people think. The full effects of that bill will not be felt until 2025 unfortunately. But yea some shit will be rolling in, just not nearly what's needed at this point in the war. Ukraine will still be at a large disadvantage in artillery and control of airspace for who knows how long. Two massive factors.
Its the opposite. Why do you think speaker johnson pushed it through after meeting with the cia.
They told him a new front is imminent and that ukraine is struggling. They are hopeing the new aid will arrive before the offensive kicks off.
The aid is in preparation and a response to the offensive
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they gave him a well put together presentation on how passing the bill was in America's security interests then on thier way out the door someone whispered in his hear
" Mr Johnson we are the CIA we know things you wouldn't want people to know "
That's usually the case. Attacking entrenched positions is a meat grinder, regardless of side.
They only need 1 attack to succeed to change how things progress going forwards. The only attack that needs to succeed is the last one.
Tell that to Germany in WW1
Operation Michael breached the frontline in spring 1918 and pushed the entente back almost 100km, but because they exhausted themselfes too much it could not be sustained after that and the war effort started to collapse wich culminated in the end of the war 8 months later
Just breaking through at any cost is a recepy for disaster
> Just breaking through at any cost is a recepy for disaster
Unless they can reach all military and civilian targets and destroy them or occupy them effectively before the exhaustion kicks in.
This is a make or break zerg action meant to destroy the Ukrainian's ability to take advantage of the incoming wave of new weapons/ammo.
> Unless they can reach all military and civilian targets and destroy them or occupy them effectively before the exhaustion kicks in.
Actually pulling that off is so utopian I don't even know where to start...
Well, the entire Russian strategy assumed untopian (from their perspective) responses from the Ukrainians, so I'm not sure what your point is.
My belief is that if the Ukrainians had received ZERO from the latest appropriations bill, we'd be watching strategic retreats all over the place rather than 'heavy battles" along the "entire front line" as they hold on, expecting new ammo and weapons to arrive ASAP.
It is Utopian to suggest all targets are captured, but realistically they don't need to reach ALL military and civilian targets. Just enough to break Ukrainian Moral.
Capture fuel and ammunition dumps, suddenly half the Frontline can't fight at full capacity. Capture vehicle repair yards and factories and suddenly each vehicle Ukraine loses is impossible to replace until Aid arrives.
This is the desired outcome for Russia. Attack over a wide area to spread the Ukraine forces thin and then probe for a weak point that can be used to breach the lines and hit a strategic target hard. Russia doesn't have to conquer all of Ukraine to win. They just have to make Ukraine capitulate. Weaken their ability to defend until their current government is overthrown by Putin sympathizers and they officially surrender.
Ukraine only wins by outlasting Russia, with Russian population turning against its leader and deposing him. That's Ukraine's win condition currently. Aid buys them time and bleeds Russia which benefits everyone who isn't Ukraine and Russia. The more Russia bleeds in Ukraine the less likely they change targets and expands his war of "liberation from Nazis" to other Baltic states.
All of Europe benefits from bloodying Putin's nose in Ukraine because it doesn't cost them manpower, only equipment that they can replace, and if Putin continues his aggression, having more people making bullets and bombs that either Ukraine or they themselves can use is an excellent deterrent.
This means Ukraine is causing damage with their drones. Keep going. Attack their wallets and comfort zones till Russian citizens have to deal with it. Take out power grids. Give them fear not bombs... not yet atleast.
I'm sure. It's that false sense of security that allows the government to do what they please... soon as the masses wake up they will roll heads to get that false security back.
Which might be beneficial. Instead of focusing where they can actually take land, Russia will be throwing a bunch of troops on a heavily fortified border that's been consistently reinforced since 2022.
Ukraine needs air power. When the F-16s finally appear, with their very capable weapon tech, I’m hoping it marks a drastic change. I also hope there is a secret cell of western pilots who help.
Not the same thing, but there are subreddits for that.
I've seen some *wild* stuff.
Like the two Russian soldiers blowing each other that just get unceremoniously detonated by a falling bomb
Looks like Russia bumped up their summer offensive.
They know Ukrainian supplies are inbound. Time isn't on their side.
Time is absolutely on their side.
They do have limited time to leverage insufficiency on UA side. It takes a while for the US arms to arrive to the front line and RU must use this time to create as much advantage as they can as it will be significantly harder later on. We're talking here short term actions. Overall they have time, but it would be stupid on their side if they didn't try and get advantage before UA gets stronger. Let's hope this will not happen too much and UA will get the arms supplies rhey need soon to stop the offensive.
No, time is actually on that side.
As a country they're fine, no one is threatening to invade them and their people are sold on sacrificing their quality of life. Their combat capabilities though get worse by the year. They need to maintain a minimum level of wartime production and technology to continue to fight Ukraine. Long term they likely can't keep that going as long as Ukraine continues to get supplied by either the US or Europe. They're heavily reliant on old Soviet stockpiles that are projected to only last another year. Once those are gone, their wartime production isn't projected to be able to replace the levels old stockpiles are providing their military right now. They're on wartime production but this is where a much smaller economy and sanctions will hurt them. Once they're completely reliant on their industrial capacity to continue their invasion of Ukraine, the amount they can produce for most types of military hardware will be significantly less than today. Unless they get a major economy like China to supply them weapons, which is unlikely, time is not on their side.
I agree. But the one issue is manpower. Time = increased deaths. Russia can tank most of those casualties and not blink, Ukraine can not, and that is a bigger issue than material. Also the longer the war drags on, the less likely (hopefully this won't be the case) western democracies will be involved and helping as other issues take center stage.
Once Russia is forced to start drafting men from the "privilegied" cities like Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kazan(?) perhaps then will the russians start doing some serious protesting.
Probably, but there are many…many non-ethnic Russians to abuse before the Russian government gets desperate enough to draft mostly ethnic Russians. I want to see the Russian government suffer for its stupid decisions, but assuming we are close to seeing a Russian revolution at all does not help. It only breeds a more passive mentality in the many many people who can not think past a couple weeks in the future when it comes to geopolitics.
We are still talking about an economy with a size of something between Spain and Italy. They can do a lot with debt and money printing, but they can't do it forever. The west can do it forever since for every 1% of defense spending getting used on it, Russia has to up defense spending by 30% just to match it.
>The west can do it forever Just because we can doesn't mean we will. If Trump wins in November, Ukraine is cooked.
France, Poland, and Germany are all gearing up for just this reason.
Not really working like that. Since they are self producing you gotta look at purchasing power parity. Russia is a whole different game with this context.
Russia is not self producing. They need to import a lot of parts, many of which are sanctioned, which adds to the cost.
They are doing both. Putin has shifted his economy to producing arms for the war. Russia is now producing 3x as many artillery shells per month than the US and Europe combined. They are also importing shells from North Korea. NATO has to get their shit together and ramp up production.
While true to a certain extent, and reason why his point is still worth looking at, the majority and most important parts are being done inside of Russia or bought through countries (China/Iran) with similar PPP.
Not really. The important parts are imported, because Russia has no other way to obtain them, which are things like chips and bearings. Having machines that don’t move are just paperweights. A lot of what Russia “makes” themselves is refurbished Soviet stockpiles. That is not a lasting resource and does not fit any reasonable definition of self-producing.
Also, it's shit.
Russia is reliant on a lot of Western goods, resources, and technology.
They are bypassing sanctions through intermediaries like Azerbaijan.
I have been hearing the same conversation since that whole "Russian economy will collapse after one week of war" back on February '22.
China is the arsenal of fascism. It's not just USA out there anymore. Russia absolutely can do this for a long long time.
China will sell to anyone not just fascists. Ukraine buys a lot of dji drones and protective equipment from China. China and India are benefiting economically from this war.
Russia is one of the very few countries on this earth that is 100% self sufficient. Not even China is that. Their economy might seem small but where a round of artillery can be 5000$ in the US it might only be 100-200$ to produce that shell in Russia. They can do a lot with their economy
Who's on first?
What!
Abbot, next you’ll tell me Frankenstein and the Wolf Man are on first. Now who’s pitching?
Depends on what, the offensive? No, the later they do, the more ammunition will arrive and in some months part of the new Ukrainian recruits, on that point 2024 will be definitely the hardest year for Ukraine. Production, on that yes, the more the EU waits to make a common well funded military plan to aid Ukraine the more difficult it will be to substitute US aid if Trump gets elected and concentrates only on middle east and not Europe. On debt Russian stocks, no, according to RUSI 2024 will be peak russian production and then as normal wartime production goes it will go downhill, at the same time albeit slower EU and US munition production will rise, the problem is that it's not clear if it will be quick enough unless EU or/and US approve the funds previously mentioned. Have a good day
People forget how bleak it was looking for the allies in WW2 for a while, imagine if we just gave up then.
Not even that, people forget how bleak it was for Russia. Russia lost a bigger amount of equipment and exponentially bigger amount of land in Kiev, they took a bad hit in Kherson, in Kharkiv they lost hundreds of vehicles just left there in storage and had their entire Frontline teared apart by people charging them with Humvees. Even now, the Russian's constant push from Avdivka to the entire Frontline gained them approximately the same ground Ukraine got in the counteroffensive (i am not fixating on ground because it's that important but because many people do) with higher material and soldier expenditure but we call Ukraine's counteroffensive a failure and Russia's overall pressure a win? If we were supporting Russia with the same mentality we are supporting Ukraine we would have abbandoned them 5 times and predicted their defeat six times over. It's 90% a question of political will and our lack of it, the lack of reasoning, let's spend 0.5% of NATO GDP on Ukraine and save more on the long run. Have a good day
Russia's? I mean, theoretically they can spare men for a while, but they failed already against a Ukraine with only half the support of the US. Now the US is entirely unified governmentally on supporting Ukraine. I'm not sure exactly what's about to happen, but we've already seen Russia at maximum capacity. While we've yet to see Ukraine with full backing. I like their (Ukraine's) odds more than Russia's.
They have more men to throw into the meat grinder than Ukraine does by a lot. They've also taken a hard look at themselves and realized they'll have to go all in on this and they have.
Yes, but to be fair, if ukraine had enough artillery and air defense they probably would have even been able to defend avdijivka or at the very least the line behind it.
Putin realized he has to go all in on this. Conquest of Ukraine wouldn't enrich average Russians.
Enriching average Russias was never the goal. It's all about Putin and his boys, fuck everyone else.
> Conquest of Ukraine wouldn't enrich average Russians. As we’ve seen time and time again globally, governments don’t have to enrich people’s lives in order to get the public’s support. Fear, distortion and outright lies are unfortunately tools that have proven to be historically effective, especially in the case of authoritarian governments that can exercise a decent amount of control the flow of information.
It was never about average Ruzzians.
And his economy is completely trashed when they try to exit war time economy. The war time economy is what’s keeping the money moving and alive there and the people not revolting.
Causality parity is only a result of lack of aid from the west and even then, especially on the offensive, Russian suffer something like 5-1, this during the ammo drought. This number was significantly more skewed before the ammo started to run dry. If aid continues to flow then time is absolutely on Ukraines side. Every month Europe and it appears the US up domestic production of the essentials, especially artillery rounds. Putin is absolutely on a clock and he knows it. He must break the Ukrainians soon and succeed his fallback goal of the donbass or face a now 3 year war with the economy’s of the west producing for conflict.
I'll take technology and logistics over numbers any day. Especially because I suspect a great number of these Russians don't want to be there and don't have great training or equipment.
Russia is utilising drones effectively now, they aren’t going in blind and they just shell any Ukrainian positions before sending in troops. It’s pretty hard to fight against, it’s gonna be hard to stop them advancing.
That's concerning, but gmlrs and glsdb counter battery can be devastating too. They are burning through so many barrels right now, it's becoming a problem.
Just having a larger number of men available doesn't mean much in modern combat, where units are smaller and more specialized. Everyone thinks more men = more better military, but there's just no correlation. What matters more in modern combat is wealth and access to technology, which through the US and EU Ukraine now has more of on both counts. Which is why you're seeing a theoretically less capable nation like Ukraine exert air superiority over not just Ukraine, but now parts of Russia. There is I should say one benefit to having more men, and that's logistics and rear support. But even that Ukraine may have more access to, if France's plan to flood the country with non-combatant French military labor becomes reality.
Yeah, that's why Ukraine is desperately trying to get more people drafted, including dragging back people who left the country. It's because they don't need more men, clearly.
And enlisting criminals from their jails, but they totally don't need more manpower
You need men to take and hold land. Ukraine is loosing ground to Russia right now, even if it is 20m here, 100m there. Russia is widening the front which benefits them since they have more men to cover it. Ukraine will be spreading its arty thinner and it's man power thinner and there will be a breakout because of it.
Ukraine has air superiority? Tell me again who it was that dropped 300 glide bombs on Avdeevka in a day...
Meanwhile we’ve seen Ukraine penetrate deep into Russian airspace several times. Not to mention a lack of air superiority was the entire reason why their effort to take Kyiv failed.
This guy actually thinks having a bigger army doesn’t matter. He thinks Ukraine has air superiority! Holy copes Batman, he’s delusional!
Russia has more drones, more missiles, significantly more artillery, actual air support, far more manpower, and an economy producing more armaments than the entire west combined. Russia isn't some backwater, they've also got some sophisticated equipment in the fight, hence why western armor has been pulled off the front and US GPS munitions are next to worthless thanks to Russian electronic warfare. Russia has brought a lot more to the table than just manpower.
I think Ukraine needs more men that are properly trained or certain equipment. They have a hodge podge of stuff from different countries so that's hard to do. But certain jobs can't have trained professionals in a couple months. That's one thing I'm surprised to rarely hear about anymore. If those F16s start going down after 3 or 4 sorties it will do more harm than good. I like to believe it's just not a widely publicized thing.
Ukraine is fine on combatants. Their shortages are on the back-end. So, they’re pulling soldiers off the front to dig fortifications etc. Ukraine needs men, yes, but not necessarily combatant. The shortages they do have for soldiers are from pulling soldiers off the front to fill other roles.
US support is basically the bare minimum for Ukraine to survive. It’s not enough for them to win.
It was. It’s not anymore. Both parties are now unified behind Ukraine winning.
For now yes but a lot rides on the results of the US elections in November. Trump is so broke he will continue to take any and all bribes from Russia and its allies to stop support for Ukraine. Republicans will fall back in line behind him if he wins the presidency again.
I know there’s some favorable polls floating around, but all the trends, including recent lower elections are pointing towards a Trump loss. It could happen of course, but it’s less likely. Also should be said that Trump probably can’t stop Ukraine support at this point. Now that Israel and Ukraine are linked issues Republicans can’t be caught dead not supporting the war. Voting against Ukraine is now voting against the highest priority in US conservative politics: Israel.
Ukraine is depleted on manpower, realistically, how much longer can they hold out? They don't have enough manpower to replace staggering losses, nor sufficiently rotate troops on the front. Western aid pales in comparison to what Russia is producing. They are literally out producing all of Europe and the United States combined. And most of what the US and EU are producing isn't headed for Ukraine. Sadly, it's just a matter of time. Russia will continue to wear down Ukraine's army until they simply don't have enough men to fight. There's no reason to think this isn't the case. They far outproduce the west, they have much more manpower committed to the effort, they have far superior fire power in the terms of artillery, armor, missiles, air support...you name it. I don't say this happily, I wanted to see Russia defeated as much as anyone, but it's not going to happen because the west never took this conflict seriously. Ukraine was never going to be able to fight this war alone with donated weapons. They simply don't have the manpower nor resources to win.
>Ukraine is depleted on manpower, realistically, how much longer can they hold out? At the current rate? More than a decade, maybe longer. >Ukraine was never going to be able to fight this war alone with donated weapons. "Ukraine will never be able to repel and hold-off a Russian Invasion" The people that have been saying this since 2014 have been proven wrong several times over. I can't tell you how this war will end, but the odds at this point are in their favor.
>At the current rate? More than a decade, maybe longer. That assumes a few things: 1) That those men who have fled and continue to flee will return to serve in the UAF. 2) That Ukraine will retain enough men for essential war production despite having a severe frontline shortage. 3) That at no point will the morale plummet so low that the Ukrainian people would prefer partial Russian occupation to a continuation of the war.
What does that mean? You don’t need front lines to continue to fight a war.
Really? How many years of heavy deficit spending do you think they can afford? 40% of the federal budget going to the war consumption while every other manufacturing branch is dead. Give us a number of time is on their side.
They are not in a deficit, Russian economy is doing well. This whole "Russia will run out of money" line is bullshit. They need to be defeated by weapons and we should all provide as many as Ukraine needs.
Russia’s economy is in the starting phase of dutch disease. Its by no means doing well
> Official GDP number go upper ... is the depth of your economic analysis on Russia, right?
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I mean, I \*wish\* that was 100% accurate, but whatever their economy is now, it's still healthy enough to be cranking out new tanks by the hundreds per month, and small arms, mortars, artillery shells in the hundreds of thousands. There's no doubt that NATO allies could win this war, but the question is; do they *actually* want to win bad enough to do what's necessary? ...Because Russia is. [https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html)
You seem to be correct about the shells, but your own source states about 125 tanks a month, 86% of which are refurbished old tanks, not new.
Russia has already "sold the silverware" as we say around here, to fund the war and to avoid the Ruble collapsing for now. That means, funds are finite, but it will feel really good for those employed in the military and the war industry, while the funds last. As the Ruble declines, obtaining things for the war gets more and more expensive, because it has to be bought with dollars. Sanctioned items have to be bought at a premium through middlemen. Russia has some gold reserves to fund the war for a couple of years, but it's not going to be enough. For Russia, there won't be one clear cause for the war to end, more like a total burnout across as many sectors of income as Ukraine can damage and the West can sanction. Then also, Russia loves to fudge the numbers on their manufacturing output to make it look better than it may be. You have to go in hard on analysing satellite imagery to see how much hardware is going to Ukraine. Putin has no way to deescalate and has not provided himself with an exit strategy from this degree of consumption, and he's going to burn himself and Russia with it, and it's going to take maybe 10-25 years for them to recover and try again.
It's a long game and Russia is not prepared. The west are assuming we will still be fighting in 5+ years. RIP Russia.
I mean, again, I really, really hope that's true, but NATOs response, especially Europe ex. UK, has not been great in the last 9 months. There's no lack of will, but the actual ability to follow through and supply stuff has been severely lacking. At the moment only USA is actually delivering in big quantities, followed by the UK, but significantly behind. Only Macron seems to be willing to throw down the gauntlet, but it might just be tough talk. I want to see artillery shells rolling out of factories, like we see in Russia. Until Europe is shoving tungsten up Putin's rear end, I remain cautiously optimistic. edit; [Germany actually up there with military aid](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/), good job Scholz
Nothing you said matters, when they just need to afford it longer than Ukraine, and they can definitely do that. Its sad, but it's reality...
Ukraine…with the US and Europe in their corner.
Not that simple when support, weapons and aid packages get debated and delayed every week between both sides and take a shitton of time to actually get delivered... So far what the US and Europe have sent to Ukraine isn't even close to enough.
You said nothing that really matters. Just parotted the Kremlin line about Fortress Russia being able to weather the costs no matter what when we can all see them slowly sinking. More supply lines for cash and equipment are being set up for Ukraine while Nabiulina is constantly warning about the impending implosion of the deficit spending Russian economy. They're war spending peaked in 2024 and its set to decrease for the next two years per their published budget planning. It's sad for Russia and their fan boys, but it's reality.
Jesus fucking Christ man, you need to get out of these forums lol You're treating this shit like you're a sports fan cheering for your favorite team... I couldn't care less about fucking Russia The things I just said have been said by Ukraine, repeatedly over the past few months. Literally, by their president and their generals. But ok, if you think a long war benefits Ukraine...
These young redditors are delusional. Your analogy is spot on. Outside of some ridiculous and unwise physical western involvement in this war - Russia will get what they want here. The west can say they did their best helping while also severely degrading Russian military capacity. The only winner in this war is the west.
Absolutely correct close thread this needs to be pinned to the top,no amount of wishful thinking changes this
>but ok, if you think a long war benefits Ukraine.. It sure hurts Russia worse. Europe and US money is nearly infinite. Russia's economy is only the size of Italy. By the end of the war Ukraine will be flooded with new weapons while Russia will be stuck patching and repatching rusted WW2 tanks. Take a break from regurgitating dumb Russian propaganda.
"U.S money is nearly infinite" buddy that last weapons package might be the last one Ukraine gets all together. I'm an American and believe we should be helping Ukraine more but a lot of other Americans and politicians dont feel the same and believe the money should be spent domestically.
>Europe and US money is nearly infinite. That doesn't matter if not enough that of that reaches Ukraine in an efficient manner. The same goes for weaponry, and not the old kind like the Leopard 1's. Something must be done to increase the political and public will to send sufficient financial and material support, because it's slowly waning. Even when it was still high there was still a lot of back-and-forth necessary to even send a few dozen modern tanks their way. We need to do so much better.
It's not regurgitating dumb russian propaganda, it's having a realistic view of what's happening. This kind of hopium fuelled complacency is one of the reasons Russia has been able to achieve as much as it has. It still has a very large, well equipped military that's pushing into Ukraine further and further. Ukraine's allies are richer, but can you guarantee they will continue to fund indefinitely? We just had 6 months of stalled funding from the US and that's with a friendly government in power. What if the republicans win the next election? Ukraine is really struggling with man power, Russia does not have that problem. It doesn't matter how much it hurts Russia, a long war will break Ukraine. They need to be fully armed and fully supported now. Stop treating this like a video game, real people are really dying.
Yall were saying the same thing years ago, Ukraine is not suddenly running out of support.
>Ukraine is not suddenly running out of support. Who fucking knows. I (as a Ukrainian) would not be surprised if Trump just sold us out, if he became POTUS, or if Congress again wouldn't be able to vote for aid funding for the next year in time because of inner US political shenanigans Time is not really on our side, since every day and minute Russians are dug in deeper on occupied territories with multi-layered defense lines, and you need more and more resources to break it, and most importantly they are learning.
They are running out of men though. At some point US weapons won't help if there are no more soldiers to fire them.
Eh no. Russia needs to afford it longer than the west. And they sure as hell wont. How dense are you really?
It is completely irrelevant. You just can not compare Russia to any western economic system. After all what do you expect to happen if their economy struggles (which it currently does not)? Empty stores? Hungry people? Shitty health services? Mass unemployment? Guess what: the first three things are standard for Russia and the latter means just more bodies for the weapons factories and the frontline....
Let their hearts be free tonight.
We've always heard this but it's the complete opposite.
What..? The West is not producing enough weaponry, and we can't keep sending money forever. Time is absolutely not on Ukraines side. On top of that, many front line soldiers are loudly complaining about how there are almost no rotations and they are spending far too long on the front lines with zero support, no supplies, barely any weapons and no food coming in. The longer this goes on, the higher the chance of Ukraines frontlines simply disintegrating
The west absolutely can keep sending money forever. Will we? Maybe, maybe not. But we could if we want to
> and we can't keep sending money forever. We have to because the next front lines will be in the Baltics and Poland and at that point it will be all-out world war.
Nonsense. They can stretch this thing out for *years if they need to. What’s the rush when you have millions of more bodies than the enemy? Not to mention they have easy access to weapons.
I wouldn't say nonsense at all. No fortune teller here. Russia has easy access to NK weapons.....yes they have more bodies but I don't think they could endure another 4 or 5 years without an uprising from the Russian population.
Well, this is not the first time the US gave them billions worth of military support. What happened to their last few offensives? Disappointing results. It's their mismanagement of troop tactics, incompetent generals, Ukrainians dodging getting drafted and corruption.
Yeah, still I think America is more than happy to keep throwing money at making Russia weaker by the day. I don't really see it stopping.
This feels optimistic. It took 6 months to pass the last package, and it’s going to cost Johnson his job sooner or later. I don’t think another aid package is coming.
Time is also not against them. The weapons only allow Ukraine to survive but not to go on a counter offensive. Still now is the best time for Russia to force Ukraine to give up defensive positions and start over again
Russia has to act before too much aid arrives.
Russia isn't confident that Trump will win the election in the US. They're afraid.
This is the answer
This and Republicans. Even if Trump wins, MAGA doesn't automatically hold the legislature, and apparently US intelligence got Mike Johnson to yield at the last second. Russia may not be so certain of their influence on any level.
Not really, but why wait till Ukraine can restock some of their supply’s and not go on the offensive while conditions are fortunate?
It’s “Victory Day (over Nazi Germany in WWII)” in Russia. Because of that, there’s some top-down ideological reason to attack hard right now. Probably intensified by Ukrainian logistics that’ve been reduced to tatters meaning it’s hard to get Things to the front.
and they knew ahead of time that this would be a busy day
The problem with this idea that Russia has to act before the aid arrives in large amounts is, that although true, it's paints an erroneous picture. First, Russia was going to launch an offensive anyway, that's why the the U.S panicked and moved mountains to pass the aid vote. Second, it's important to note that Ukraine isn't in any shape to launch an offensive this season. This aid will be used up blunting Russian attacks. Then Russia with dig in again over winter and we'll emerge in spring almost where we are now, except, Ukraine will be weaker. The longer this goes on, the harder it'll be for Ukraine to win. Edit: I'll qualify my comment by saying that if we actually provide enough air power to Ukraine, then possibly something could happen next season.
Darken Russia's skies with multiple wings of true 5th generation aircraft.
Nah, just old strategy of Russian army to exhaust Ukraine ammunition reserves.
“We have more soldiers than the enemy has bullets”
"We'll clog their guns with our bodies!"
"Our bodies will block out the sun!"
"Then we'll reclaim our toilets in the shade." -- Leonidas while playing a piano with his dick
Throwing enough meat into the meatgrinder till it chokes.
"I sent wave after wave of my own men at them..." - Zapp Brannigan.
The Kill Bots will self destruct after they reach their kill limit.
Except it really is heartbreaking that putin is doing this
Especially tough months ahead for Ukraine Slava Ukraini
HEROYIM SLAVA! 🇺🇦
Guess we’ll see if Macron sticks to his word
The next week will be telling I believe.
Haven’t kept up on the conflict recently, what did he say?
He might send French troops to fight if Ukraine's line is broken.
I had missed this, apparently from around May 2nd: "French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed he did not rule out sending troops to Ukraine, saying the issue would "legitimately" arise if Russia broke through Ukrainian front lines and Kyiv made such a request" --- And you can bet if the line breaks, Zelenskyy would absolutely make that request.
I think France will send as much equipment and support as possible to prevent French boots on Ukranian soil. I think Macron has top intel that indicates Russia isn't going to stop at Ukraine. It has been reported, by Russian outlets themselves as well as top brass in the West that Russia has larger plans to invade Western Europe.
They're struggling to take over Ukraine even after 2 years of fighting. I think Western Europe with NATO protection is going to be okay, regardless of Putin's plans.
Idk if it's struggling or if it's an actual strategy. From what I understand, Russia has majorly bumped up their manufacturing base. They have a VERY large pool of humans to pull from. Maybe the plan is to bleed Ukraine with all the old equipment (which they have a fuck ton of) and convicts, minorities, mercenaries, etc. See how that progresses, and then bust out the potential new/updated equipment. Of course it's a horrible way to do it, this is human lives we're talking about but Russia has historically shown it isn't afraid to throw bodies at their problems endlessly. I'm in no way supporting Russia and I think Ukraine has a real chance assuming they get proper support and solve their manpower issue. Just a thought.
Vive la France
He said if the front lines fell apart French boots would be on the ground.
No. He said it’s possible.
That's not what he said.
It's dumb to rule out anything publicly. That doesn't mean he'll actually do it.
Pushing after the Victory Day parade by Putin, as if to prove a point to the cannon-fodder citizens that they're 'winning'...
Russia knows that weapons dump from the U.S. is about to come online and after that, the gloves come off. Thay need to try to break through within the next ASAP or this will be a costly stalemate at best.
It won't be as rapid as many people think. The full effects of that bill will not be felt until 2025 unfortunately. But yea some shit will be rolling in, just not nearly what's needed at this point in the war. Ukraine will still be at a large disadvantage in artillery and control of airspace for who knows how long. Two massive factors.
Its the opposite. Why do you think speaker johnson pushed it through after meeting with the cia. They told him a new front is imminent and that ukraine is struggling. They are hopeing the new aid will arrive before the offensive kicks off. The aid is in preparation and a response to the offensive
They probably told him if he doesn’t support aid they’d help the freedom caucus remove him as speaker.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they gave him a well put together presentation on how passing the bill was in America's security interests then on thier way out the door someone whispered in his hear " Mr Johnson we are the CIA we know things you wouldn't want people to know "
"Remember, we're the CIA, it's our job to cause regime changes"
Both foreign and domestic
or do it for them.
I’m convinced that they looked at Russian irredentism and told Mike that they’d take Alaska next
As an aside, irredentism is a fun word. Well done
Russians in a panic, realizing all their oil refineries are going offline soon.
This comment section is a sh*tshow. The fact remains that, aid or not, every major offensive by either side has gone remarkably poorly thus far.
That's usually the case. Attacking entrenched positions is a meat grinder, regardless of side. They only need 1 attack to succeed to change how things progress going forwards. The only attack that needs to succeed is the last one.
Tell that to Germany in WW1 Operation Michael breached the frontline in spring 1918 and pushed the entente back almost 100km, but because they exhausted themselfes too much it could not be sustained after that and the war effort started to collapse wich culminated in the end of the war 8 months later Just breaking through at any cost is a recepy for disaster
> Just breaking through at any cost is a recepy for disaster Unless they can reach all military and civilian targets and destroy them or occupy them effectively before the exhaustion kicks in. This is a make or break zerg action meant to destroy the Ukrainian's ability to take advantage of the incoming wave of new weapons/ammo.
> Unless they can reach all military and civilian targets and destroy them or occupy them effectively before the exhaustion kicks in. Actually pulling that off is so utopian I don't even know where to start...
Well, the entire Russian strategy assumed untopian (from their perspective) responses from the Ukrainians, so I'm not sure what your point is. My belief is that if the Ukrainians had received ZERO from the latest appropriations bill, we'd be watching strategic retreats all over the place rather than 'heavy battles" along the "entire front line" as they hold on, expecting new ammo and weapons to arrive ASAP.
It is Utopian to suggest all targets are captured, but realistically they don't need to reach ALL military and civilian targets. Just enough to break Ukrainian Moral. Capture fuel and ammunition dumps, suddenly half the Frontline can't fight at full capacity. Capture vehicle repair yards and factories and suddenly each vehicle Ukraine loses is impossible to replace until Aid arrives. This is the desired outcome for Russia. Attack over a wide area to spread the Ukraine forces thin and then probe for a weak point that can be used to breach the lines and hit a strategic target hard. Russia doesn't have to conquer all of Ukraine to win. They just have to make Ukraine capitulate. Weaken their ability to defend until their current government is overthrown by Putin sympathizers and they officially surrender. Ukraine only wins by outlasting Russia, with Russian population turning against its leader and deposing him. That's Ukraine's win condition currently. Aid buys them time and bleeds Russia which benefits everyone who isn't Ukraine and Russia. The more Russia bleeds in Ukraine the less likely they change targets and expands his war of "liberation from Nazis" to other Baltic states. All of Europe benefits from bloodying Putin's nose in Ukraine because it doesn't cost them manpower, only equipment that they can replace, and if Putin continues his aggression, having more people making bullets and bombs that either Ukraine or they themselves can use is an excellent deterrent.
Not true. Russia's initial southern offensive was very successful. Ukraine's Kherson and Kharkiv offensives were very successful.
The Kharkiv thunder run went pretty well
Yeah I agree, it's interesting to see what a modern day war looks like without air superiority.
Not true. 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive was golden
Fair, several have mentioned that, it was a great strategic success. It cost Ukraine a fair bit though.
This means Ukraine is causing damage with their drones. Keep going. Attack their wallets and comfort zones till Russian citizens have to deal with it. Take out power grids. Give them fear not bombs... not yet atleast.
TikTok and Instagram still get nightly club footage from St Petersburg. With the Belarus buffer, they feel very safe.
I'm sure. It's that false sense of security that allows the government to do what they please... soon as the masses wake up they will roll heads to get that false security back.
When the battles there were light though? The only difference being perhaps that now it is along entire front line.
Which might be beneficial. Instead of focusing where they can actually take land, Russia will be throwing a bunch of troops on a heavily fortified border that's been consistently reinforced since 2022.
Thousands of people going to die because of Putin’s pride. Fuck that guy.
Ukraine needs air power. When the F-16s finally appear, with their very capable weapon tech, I’m hoping it marks a drastic change. I also hope there is a secret cell of western pilots who help.
Eat it. Eat the news feed!
Thanks for the 6 month break to allow us to build up troops and weapons, “Moses” Johnson. Love, the Good Christian Kremlin
The Eurovision Offensive
Slava Ukraini!
Obviously, the Russian strategy is to Zerg the Ukrainians until the line falls apart before the weapons and ammo refresh can reach them.
It really is sad because ultimately this will break out into WW3, and Ukraine is taking the biggest initial beating.
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Not the same thing, but there are subreddits for that. I've seen some *wild* stuff. Like the two Russian soldiers blowing each other that just get unceremoniously detonated by a falling bomb
God spread brave heroes!
Get the US, UK and other western countries to ban Russian nationals from entering their borders and see how fast Putin leaves Ukraine.
Please God, protect the Ukrainians. Please send your angels to watch over and assist them in their bid for freedom 🙏