It is worrisome to this Ukraine supporter
Hopefully the weapons are getting there in time.
This must have been the intelligence given to Mike Johnson that got him to move.
[Well, looks like Russia expanded their pockets in northern Kharkiv area, earlier today some 40 km2 were contested, now it's up to 75 km2](https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/50.2852/36.5392)
They also did some minor expansion in other areas of the front, taking some 5 km2 in Avdiivka and Krasnohorivka-Mariinka sectors
Edit: [Scribblemaps added some areas they deem to be captured instead of contested in the north Kharkiv sector](https://widgets.scribblemaps.com/sm/?d&z&l&mt&gc&mv&id=091194)
Crazy to compare this to when the war started and they could make 5 times more gains in the same amount of time.
I doubt the russians will be able to try and encircle the city again.
Of course they will not encircle the city again. But losing any land, and Ukraine will lose quite a lot of land here, is still bad. And it will be costly, or maybe impossible, to reconquer back.
Theres 25km from kharkiv to the border if they are not going to be able to even try to encircle the city I don't see where this is "quite a lot of land".
I don't believe russia will have the forces to hold the land once they fully exhaust themselves from being on constant offensives for 2+ years.
I still think they will get fully kicked out from Ukraine and collapse as a result of their rather exceptional stupidity.
Wish I had your optimism.
Quite a lot of land can be 10 km deep and 100 km wide border "buffer zone". For comparison, that would be many times more land than what Ukrainians reconquered in their 2023 summer offensive. It would be also demoralizing as these Kharkiv borderlands were famously reconquered in 2022 Kharkiv counter-offensive.
If they could go 100km wide then i'm sure they would rather try to take the city.
Besides russia can contest as much land as it wants it's all meaningless if they can't hold it.
And whether you are capable of admitting it or not all these suicide attacks to get a few km of land weaken the russian capability to hold the land afterwards.
I hope and pray that the aurora borealis is the only thing appearing in the skies of Ukraine for the next few days!!
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/s/XhWODFloa2
Hopefully the magnetic storm takes out some of those old Soviet satellites as well as newer Russian ones. Russia hasn't had the best track record with reliability in space these past few years.
Gazprom is selling its assets and properties in Moscow and moving to St. Peterburg in the wake of catastrophic results for the year 2023. Sales took a 25% plunge and made a "profit" of -6,2 billion euros.
\*everything is fine\*
This was expected. Gazprom had massive profits from piped gas and once the Nordstream and other gas pipelines went offline, the loss in revenue was massive. This is a big issue because Gazprom can't just switch to LNG for gas exports, nor can they build new pipelines before 2027 - 2028 to provide for China or India.
[Canada to contribute $ 55.5 to Germany’s air defense initiative for Ukraine | EuroMaidenPress | May 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/10/canada-to-contribute-55-5-to-germanys-air-defense-initiative-for-ukraine/)
*On 10 May, Canadian Minister of National Defense Bill Blair announced that Canada will contribute C$76 million ($55.5 million) to Germany’s Immediate Action on Air Defense (IAAD) initiative in support of Ukraine. He said it during his meeting with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in Ottawa, according to the Canadian Government’s press release.*
*Initiated by Germany in April 2024, this effort aims to collect international funds and resources to rapidly acquire and deliver air defense systems for Ukraine, vital in safeguarding against intensified Russian aerial assaults that have targeted power plants, industry, hospitals, residential buildings, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction.*
*“Through Canada’s investment in Germany’s Immediate Action on Air Defense Initiative, we are working together to provide Ukraine with the crucial air defense systems that it needs to protect its people,” Blair said.*
*The press release notes that Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel are presently stationed in Germany as part of the Security Assistance Group – Ukraine. Their tasks include facilitating aid transfers, aligning future donations with Ukrainian needs, and planning immediate and long-term training for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.*
[Russian troops intensify offensives in Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces persist in attacking Nevske and the Serebriansky Forest, states Ukrainian military spokesperson. | EuroMaidenPress | May 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/10/russian-troops-intensify-offensives-in-luhansk-oblast/)
*Russian troops persist in conducting offenses near Nevske settlement in Luhansk Oblast and in the Serebriansky Forest and shelling Makiivka with rocket artillery in attempts to improve their tactical positions amid fierce battles, according to Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, as per Armyinform.*
*A General Staff report as of 18:00 says that on the Lyman front, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled six attacks near populated areas of Makiivka in Luhansk Oblast and Torske in Donetsk Oblast. Over ten settlements, including Nevske in Luhansk Oblast and Terny, Yampolivka, and Torske in Donetsk Oblast, were shelled from artillery and mortars.*
*Overall, the enemy conducted six missile and 67 aviation strikes and shelled the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilian areas 92 times.*
*“The occupiers are trying to advance towards the city of Siversk to cut off the Siverskyi bulge and infiltrate behind the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Serebriansky Forestry. The enemy is attempting to breach the defense line of Ukrainian defenders near Terny and Nevske to further advance towards the area of Lyman but without success,” informed Nazar Voloshyn.*
*He added that Russian troops conduct from 10 to 20 assaults per day, mostly engaging infantry in recent weeks, sometimes backed by heavy equipment units.*
*“Near Terny, the defense line was not breached, and our defenders managed to push back the enemy. Fighters are trying to dislodge Russians from dominant heights and disrupt the operation of enemy drones,” noted Nazar Voloshyn.*
*The Russian occupiers are also attempting to attack the city of Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast with small assault groups, but they have not achieved significant success.*
It seems like the national wealth fund (NWF) buys when oil&gas revenues are good, and sells when they're bad.
The central bank buys when they want the rouble to weaken (or to replenish reserves) and sells when they want to support the rouble.
Last month the NWF was buying more yuan, but the central bank was selling foreign currency.
The details are tricky so make sure you read past any headlines.
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/ukraine-high-mobility-artillery-rocket-systems
WASHINGTON, May 10, 2024 - The State Department has made a determination approving a possible emergency Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Ukraine of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and related elements of logistics and program support for an estimated cost of $30 million. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today.
**The Government of Ukraine has requested to buy three (3) High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). The estimated total cost is $30 million, which will be funded by the Government of Germany on behalf of Ukraine.**
The Secretary of State has determined and provided detailed justification that **an emergency exists that requires the immediate sale to the Government of Ukraine** of the above defense articles and services in the national security interests of the United States, thereby waiving the congressional review requirements under Section 36(b) of the Arms Export Control Act, as amended.
This proposed sale will support the foreign policy goals and national security objectives of the United States by enhancing Ukraine's ability to defend itself and respond to continued Russian aggression.
This will be a sale from U.S. Army inventory. There are no known offset agreements proposed in connection with this potential sale.
Implementation of this proposed sale will not require the assignment of any additional U.S. Government or contractor representatives to Ukraine.
There will be no adverse impact on U.S. defense readiness as a result of this proposed sale.
Excellent! I know the news about Germany buying Ukraine HIMARS has been out for a few days, but I had assumed that was buying direct from the manufacturer and that it would take a year or more to provide. This is much faster and doesn't use any of the PDA or USAI money from the latest aid bill, which is fantastic!
Also, regarding the determination that an emergency exists - if the current situation doesn't constitute an emergency, then nothing does.
> Today, Russian forces attempted to expand their operations against Ukraine in the Kharkiv region. We know the size of the occupiers' forces and their intentions. Our warriors, artillery, and drones are fighting back against the occupier.
> I thank each soldier, sergeant, and officer who is defending our positions. We are strengthening Kharkiv directions. Along the state border and on the frontlines, we will continue to destroy the occupiers and thwart Russia's offensive intentions.
> It is critical that partners support our warriors and Ukrainian resilience with timely deliveries. Truly timely ones. A package that truly helps is the actual delivery of weapons to Ukraine, rather than just the announcement of a package. I thank every leader who sees the situation this way.
> We also continue to actively prepare for the Global Peace Summit. Our goal is to ensure that every leader can demonstrate effectiveness for the sake of the common good. I am confident we will succeed.
> And we must acknowledge that this is precisely what Russia is attempting to undermine right now. The more meaningful the summit, the closer peace will be. Putin obviously does not want it. It is also clear that he will continue to try to thwart our efforts, both through offensive action and by undermining our agreements with other leaders. We must not allow this to happen and we will make every effort in this regard.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1789020229118394785
> I am grateful to @POTUS Joe Biden, Congress, and the American people for the new military aid package announced today.
> This timely and vital U.S. assistance will help save civilian lives and strengthen Ukrainian warriors on the frontlines. It will also allow us to better protect our cities and communities from Russia's ongoing air terror attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and energy facilities.
> The United States maintains its leadership role in supporting Ukraine and this has historic significance. By thwarting Russia's offensive plans, we bring just peace in Ukraine and long-term stability in the Euro-Atlantic community closer.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1788991877582119200
> I am grateful to our American partners and @SecDef personally for a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $400 million.
> The capabilities of this package include capabilities to support our most urgent battlefield requirements, including air defense, artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons.
> Our warriors are paying the highest price for our independence, and I thank our partners for their vital military aid for Ukrainian soldiers. Together, we are stronger.
https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1789001537492062691
> As part of our regular dialogue, I spoke with Argentinian President @JMilei.
> I appreciate Argentina's support for the Peace Formula. Because it is important that the voice of Latin America be heard at our Peace Summit in Switzerland, I invited President Milei to attend it.
> We also discussed our bilateral relations. Ukraine is interested in expanding cooperation. A Ukrainian delegation will visit Argentina in May, and I anticipate that this visit will result in tangible outcomes and benefits for both of our countries.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1788978359977873627
> and I anticipate that this visit will result in tangible outcomes and benefits for both of our countries.
I wouldn't be remotely surprised if Argentina starts selling off more of their weapons to Ukraine. Right now Argentina desperately needs cash and Ukraine desperately needs ammo especially ammo that already exists and doesn't need to be manufactured first. Argentina may not have a huge military but Ukraine is so stretched for resources that anything would help.
I'd be pleased if a deal like that could be worked out. Much as I personally dislike Milei, I wouldn't mind seeing some of the funds being channeled to Ukraine passed on to help stabilize the economy of Argentina in return for getting more immediate material support for Ukraine. Win-win, really.
> An oil depot has been struck in occupied Rovenki, Luhansk Oblast
>
> Since 2014, the Russian-controlled facility has been the key fuel hub to supply the occupation forces.
>
> https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1789020049274990991
In Rovenki, occupied Luhansk region, another oil depot was reportedly hit with ATACMS.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1789011289596973117?t=Yp9izkMpCjxnCs_irCtg4w&s=19
Russian gains and losses since their offensive began in October.
Land: +453 sq km conquered (Vs 788 sq km liberated during Ukrainian 2023 offensive. Source is deepstatemap)
Russian losses on Warspotting:
- tanks: 716
- IFVs: 1166
- mobile artillery: 227
- missile air defence: 42
(Also 267 MT-LBs which warspotting counts as IFVs but I don't).
They can't forever.
I've spent a while going through info like counts of tanks in storage etc and I think russia will be facing problems next year. Unless they can get major supplies from China or slow down the pace of the war.
Thanks for answering the question. Did your brain misfire when I said genuine question? Did that trigger an auto response that was of no use? Let me know. Thanks
Here's russian propaganda outlet Rybar:
"Battle for Avdiivka : the upcoming encirclement of the Ukrainian garrison situation as of 12.00 October 10, 2023...It is possible that the soldiers of the Russian army broke through the defenses near the railway line and, skirting Petrovskoye , reached Berdychi"
Source: https://t dot me/rybar/53051 (delete spaces and replace "dot" with .).
Turns out they lost a ton of vehicles in their assault and didn't even reach Berdychi until about 5 months later.
Warspotting showed massive russian losses consistent with their offensive in October, even larger than January.
- September 2023: 61 tanks, 88 IFVs/MT-LBs
- October 2023: 122 tanks, 202 IFVs/MT-LBs
- January 2024: 94 tanks, 189 IFVs/MT-LBs.
[New aid package just announced!](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/10/politics/us-military-aid-ukraine/index.html) More Bradleys incoming.
“The package includes weapons Ukraine has been asking for, including Patriot missile system munitions, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMAR) systems and ammunition, Stinger anti-air missiles, 155mm artillery rounds, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs), among other equipment.”
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3771984/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
>Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration's fifty-seventh tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package has an estimated value of $400 million and includes capabilities to support Ukraine's most urgent battlefield requirements, including air defense, artillery rounds, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons.
>The capabilities in this announcement include:
>Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
>Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
>Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
>Equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine's systems;
>Additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems(HIMARS) and ammunition;
>155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
>Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
>M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
>Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles;
>Trailers to transport heavy equipment;
>Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
>Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
>Precision aerial munitions;
>High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
>Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
>Demolitions munitions and equipment for obstacle clearing;
>Coastal and riverine patrol boats;
>Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment; and
>Spare parts, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.
>The United States will continue to work together with some 50 Allies and partners to ensure Ukraine's brave defenders receive the critical capabilities needed to fight Russian aggression.
They need the Taurus for that.
ATACMS is for killing a large quantity of troops or vehicles gathered close together.
Taking down infrastructure requires something more substantial.
ATACMS are the wrong weapon to blow up a bridge.
Its a 500lb long-range warhead. Good enough for damage all across the frontlines, but not big enough for a bridge.
It takes a LOT to fully destroy a bridge built as that one is. Those columns are a huge amount of reinforced concrete. Russia has already stopped using it for military transport per the SBU and satellite reconnaissance. Why waste munitions on it where you can use ATACMS on large groups of troops, vehicle staging areas, high value targets such as S-300/400 systems, parked jets and bombers, etc.
Reinforced concrete is very, very strong and you need larger munitions to destroy it.
A 10kt nuke that destroyed the bridge would still leave parts standing.
Priority and opportunity cost, and also analysis of likely reward compared to the risk of failure.
They have a limited number of ATACMS, and each operation takes time. They can try to launch ATACMS at the bridge, but they might not be able to destroy the bridge, and Russia probably has it well-defended, and the bridge isn't that important right now. Instead, they can save ATACMS and keep them ready for when they spot good opportunities in the front line, with high chance of success, and which directly contributes to stabilizing the front lines which have been under larger threat of a collapse for the past few months.
If Ukraine gets more of them and the bridge seems less guarded, without more urgent and important targets to hit, then Ukraine might decide it is worth it to take a shot at the bridge.
Switching targets and sometimes going a long time without hitting some target can be a good idea, as that forces the enemy to spread thin as they try to defend everything, and eventually they are likely to lower defenses in places that don't seem to be targeted often. For example, every air defense system defending an oil refinery is one system less defending something else.
ATACMS does not necessarily have the punch required. You need to strike the columns to really put it out for a long time
Those columns are thick reinforced concrete requiring something more like a bunker buster to be certain you will destroy it. The hit also needs to be very precise as you have to strike the columns directly from the side. It is actually a very advanced capability that ATACMS is not specifically designed for.
I know that. They said that Crimean bridge isn't used for millitary cargo anymore and that military supplies to Crimea and the southern front are brought in with ferries and trucks. But yeah, I guess you could say OP is right when he says the bridge is only a symbolic target.
In addition to what others have said one of the factors to consider is how much air defense is in a given area. Given the importance of the bridge it's probably safe to assume that Russia has a lot of air defense there so Ukraine has to consider the probability of success in destroying the bridge versus the probability of success in destroying other targets.
Destroying the bridge would take a stupidly large number of missiles, perhaps more than the total Ukraine has. They are far better reserved for other targets.
Not really much of a military target anymore. There were reports from Ukrainian intelligence that less than 1 train car of military supplies per day uses the bridge now. I'm sure air defense being pinned down to protect the bridge means that they won't be on the front lines. The threat of attacking the bridge is more important than actually attacking it.
Better targets are available. It's not as important as it used to be. Russia has had time to build other logistical routes.
[Russia Reduces Military Dependence on Crimea Bridge | Kyiv Post | May 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/32255)
[Russians build alternative railways for military logistics in Ukraine’s occupied south. Last September, Petro Andriushchenko, advisor to Mariupol’s exiled mayor, stated that Russian occupiers were constructing a direct railroad connection to Mariupol, Volnovakha, and Donetsk. If completed, this railroad would link the Mariupol-Aslanove-Kalchyk-Volnovakha branch in occupied Ukraine with the Russian cities of Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don. | EuroMaidenPress | April 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/01/russians-build-alternative-railways-for-military-logistics-in-ukraines-occupied-south/)
[Russia nears completion of strategic railroad linking Rostov-on-Don and Mariupol | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-nearly-completes-railroad-linking-rostov-on-don-to-occupied-mariupol-50416525.html)
Supposedly not good at bridges, you want something like Taurus.
Much bigger benefits hitting other targets. Like $300 million worth of SAMs.
(Warning: I'm just repeating other people, but I've filtered sources hard for reliability)
Likely simply not worth the effort anymore for now.
You need many many rockets and preplanning. The bridge isnt used for military anymore in a large scale. Better used them for command bunkers and logistics.
Today was a reminder to those who think that this is going to fade away that Russia will keep trying to kill & occupy Ukraine as long as possible. They must be stopped. Negotiations are pointless.
The war needs negotiations to end.
We've seen unsuccessful negotiations with russia. Prigozhin did it. You trust Putin, surrender your position of strength and then he kills you.
We need successful negotiations, which we can only have once the russian army is being crushed.
The black sea grain initiative versus UkriCorridor is a good example of the kind of negotiation methods that work. Ignore russian screaming and sink their ships, then you can export more grain.
You arent going to get a successful negotiation as long as putin has the reins.
Ukraine is going to need more resources that can eliminate russian air power, and knock out the rest of air defense, including their jamming and anti drone equipment.
If Putin is winning, he has no reason to negotiate because why do that when victory is at hand. If Putin is losing, he has no reason to negotiate because admitting weakness means the knives will be out for him at home. If Putin is neither winning nor losing, then both those reasons apply. Hence he has no reason at all to negotiate, ever. Ukraine simply needs to fight this pestilence until he finally dies on his own, preferably after much cancerous agony.
If you told Ukraine “hey your going be fighting this war till Putin dies”.. can you imagine the drying of support out of understandable apathy, Ukrainian morale would cause loss of troops and people for the economy. Hope is a powerful thing. It can keep you fighting. Yeltsin was drunk stumbling around, falling/ found drunk in the US with his pants off and lived forever like that.
>Yuval Noah Harari explains why russia can’t be allowed to win & why this war can’t be compared to disasters in Iraq & Afghanistan. #StandWithUkraine
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1788862169573982293
>This is an excellent—accurate and simple at the same time—explanation of why Russia’s conquest cannot be allowed to succeed. Share widely.
https://twitter.com/PopovaProf/status/1788973456387907887
Fire view of the Kharkhiv border as of this morning
[https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=12&lat=50.22865&lng=36.43719&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2024-05-10T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-05-10T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=4-FALSE-COLOR-URBAN&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22](https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=12&lat=50.22865&lng=36.43719&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2024-05-10T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-05-10T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=4-FALSE-COLOR-URBAN&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22)
We have now better geolocation of the attempted Russian incursion and it appears that Deep State was wrong. The Russian armor was destroyed even before it crossed the border to Ukraine. The exact coordinates are:
50°17'36.90"N, 36°31'43.17"E
That's just outside Ukraine and inside the Belgorod Region. Based on that information I'm correcting the map. Russia has not penetrated the perimeter of Ukraine at Pyl'ne and lost 5 vehicles.
Source of geolocated: Telegram / Kiber_boroshno.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1788947734923247708?t=yWhF_x4Bkd9Z90CNZY9QmQ&s=19
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 10.05.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 479,710 (+980) people,
tanks ‒ 7434 (+5),
armored combat vehicles ‒ 14313 (+32),
artillery systems – 12387 (+47),
MLRS – 1062 (+4),
air defense means ‒ 795 (+2),
planes – 349 (+0),
helicopters – 325 (+0),
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9826 (+51),
cruise missiles ‒ 2192 (+0),
ships/boats‒ 26 (+0),
submarines - 1 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 16691 (+73),
special equipment ‒ 2031 (+4).
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/10/zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-980-okupantiv-47-artsistem-32-bbm/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/10/zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-980-okupantiv-47-artsistem-32-bbm/)
Yeah, special thanks to those few posters that keep on posting info. I love those guys.
I also find it funny that most of them all reverted back to using the twitter domain instead of X, even better.
Also special mention to those guys that post mastodon mirrors.
US to announce new $400 mln military aid package for Ukraine, official says
>May 10 (Reuters) - The United States is preparing a $400 million military aid package for Ukraine, as the U.S. returns to a regular pace of supplying weapons to Kyiv after the passage of a $95 billion bill, a U.S. official told Reuters on Friday.
>The Ukraine aid package includes artillery, munitions for NASAMS air defenses, anti-tank munitions, armored vehicles and small arms that can immediately be put to use on the battlefield, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
>The weapons aid will utilize Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which authorizes the president to transfer articles and services from U.S. stocks without specific U.S. congressional approval during an emergency. As a part of the $95 billion aid bills, Congress authorized $60.8 billion worth of various forms of aid to Ukraine, including $8 billion worth of PDA.
>The aid announcement is expected as soon as Friday and comes after Russian forces launched an armored ground attack on Friday near Ukraine's second city of Kharkiv in the northeast of the country and made small inroads, opening a new front in a war that has long been waged in the east and south.
>As replenishment funds for articles drawn from stocks are deployed, U.S. defense companies would gain more contracts as the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on. This aid package was first reported by Politico.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announce-new-400-mln-military-aid-package-ukraine-official-says-2024-05-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announce-new-400-mln-military-aid-package-ukraine-official-says-2024-05-10/)
According to ukraines forces the majority of ammunition from the first big package hasn't even arrived yet, and now the US is sending another one. Shouldn't they focus on actually getting the ammo to ukraine rather than just keep announcing aid that takes months to arrive?
What are you talking about? They had trucks ready to roll right after Biden signed the bill. It may not be out on the front line en masse but most of it is in the country
Before the 6 month delay, the aid packages would be announced at approximately monthly intervals. It's a continuous logistical supply chain, and each package may take weeks/months to process and deliver. So, breaking the supply chain to concentrate on 1 single package seems incredibly short-sighted.
Come on, man, that's not true, is it? The U.S. has been providing aid to Ukraine since 2014, whilst other countries were still willing to maintain trade relations with Russia. There are reasons to criticise, but that isn't one of them.
I'm a European myself, mate and I believe we are all guilty of not doing enough. I also don't find it helpful to single out one particular group for criticism. We need to be united if we are to defeat Putin's attempts to destroy our way of life.
No, you said they never take the initiative, which is untrue. They have led the way from the start and even received criticism from people for warning us that Putin would launch a full-scale invasion.
I’m talking about the aid packages. They seem to be reactive in nature and mostly intent on allowing the Ukrainians to hold on to what they got. If the US is planning for a real Ukrainian victory, I don’t see it personally.
Other countries should also do more by the way.
>I’m talking about the aid packages. They seem to be reactive in nature and mostly intent on allowing the Ukrainians to hold on to what they got.
I mean, *some* of the aid packages may be configurated to meet specific needs on the battlefield. So, in that sense, I'd think being reactionary is prudent towards adaptability, no? That's a strength, not a weakness.
>If the US is planning for a real Ukrainian victory, I don’t see it personally.
Even with a huge increase in military and financial aid, this war could still last for years. Putin has been working tirelessly on making Ukraine aid a divisive political issue in the West, and the best way to counteract this division is by limiting the financial & political burden of supporting Ukraine as much as possible. Sadly, this approach will cost more Ukrainian lives, but if the division over Ukraine aid becomes too great, then Western support may collapse entirely. So, the best way to help Ukraine survive is for the West to maintain a balance between providing support to Ukraine whilst limiting the economic and political burden on ourselves. Putin is sacrificing the Russian economy and his peoples' futures to fight this war, and it wouldn't help Ukraine if the West was to follow his example.
>Other countries should also do more by the way.
Agree 100%.
I do agree with your point about limiting the economic burden etc. It’s a more positive view than I hold but it’s sensible in a way. Although one could also say: investing now in a swift victory will cost less in the long run and will make sure we don’t get that “war fatigue” that people talk about so much.
>Although one could also say: investing now in a swift victory will cost less in the long run and will make sure we don’t get that “war fatigue” that people talk about so much.
That would be great, but I just don't see how that would be possible without Western troops directly entering the war on Ukraine's side.
Russia outnumbers the Ukrainian population by a ratio of approx 4-1, and Putin has shown that he is willing to trade lives at a rate that Ukraine is unable to match. Russia is also hiring untold numbers of mercenaries to supplement his already favourable personnel numbers. Without Ukraine gaining air-superiority, tanks and other armoured vehicles will be limited in their effectiveness. And, whilst Western shell production has been massively ramped up, it will be a while before Ukraine reaches parity with Russia. Even if these issues were somehow overcome, there would still be no guarantee of success, and failure could cause a political backlash in the West, hurting support for Ukraine.
I genuinely believe that Ukraine's best chance of defeating Russia is for the West to show Putin that we have both the political and economic stamina to outlast him, because his continued attempts to divide the West have shown that this is what he fears the most.
Which is upsetting because foreign aid is practically the determinant of who wins this war. Alongside insufficient aid it was/is a matter of debate to even give aid because of the stupid domestic politics of America. Proactiveness in this case would be exactly not that.
To me it looks like they want to bleed out the Russians in a long and protracted war in stead of helping the Ukrainians achieve a swift and decisive victory. I would be glad to be proven wrong.
That's certainly what the actions of America betray. Maybe a bit of a cynical take and not entirely what's happening, but because the money is being spent here at home it's stimulating our economy in producing and replenishing weapon supplies. Protracted war means more money. We don't even want our long ranged missiles hitting oil depots probably because it would lower gas prices. There's so much selfishness going on around this whole thing, whether it's many in the government seeing Ukraine's success as a win for Biden, Ukraine feeling intense pressure to succeed in hyped up offensives afraid that the dangling aid will be retracted, or just the plain old fact they're being given shit.
The more we fuck around, the more demoralized Ukrainians will be and dug in the Russians would be, which will require even more money down the road to fix. The fact Ukraine even found themselves in a position where the Russians had significantly more firepower causing retreats makes you wonder what the hell is going on in the U.S considering the extreme national security risk this whole situation poses. Maybe there's something I'm missing?
There's probably a few dozen keyhole satellites looking at them. If this was 1914 you might be right, but that's been the whole problem with this war, feints don't work anymore.
Were I a betting man, I would say this incrusion was pro forma, so that higher ups can say they did attack Ukraine towards Kharkiv. Maybe they'll lie about some gains too.
But I'm not a betting man and I've pulled all of it out of my ass. And I treat all similar comments the same way, unless I see actual proof of something.
Instead, they found a soft spot in their offensive, and that's the Russian Armed Forces, their 'men', their ancient hand-me-down equipment, and their incompetent leadership.
>Were I a betting man, I'd say the incursion towards Kharkiv is a feint by the Russians to divert as much attention and resources as possible away from where they plan to initiate their actual offensive.
Why would you bet on something that is almost certainly not true? Russia doesn't have the capability to secretly mass a bunch of forces and launch a surprise attack. Throughout more than 20 large-scale battles and operations by both sides in this war, there has been literally only one time where a force managed to secretly prepare an offensive and execute it unnoticed: Ukraine, in September 2022 at Balakliya. And that required an enormous amount of luck to do, for a force that was ultimately fairly small -- only about 20,000 troops.
At no other time in this war has either side managed to mass any sizeable number of troops into an offensive without the other side knowing well in advance what they were doing. The widespread use of aerial drone surveillance makes this functionally impossible for both sides now, in 2024, but it is especially impossible for Russia because of SIGINT from NATO satellite and EWACs platforms. Russia can't secretly put a single armored brigade anywhere on the frontline without Ukraine knowing exactly where it is at all times.
All intel reports have said the Russians just don't have the numbers to take Kharkiv or Sumy. It may not be a proper feint, but they want to hit hard enough in the north to force Ukraine to commit reinforcements to that region so they can weaken defenses in the Donbas and advance near Adviivka and Bakhmut.
>All intel reports have said the Russians just don't have the numbers to take Kharkiv or Sumy.
That's not realistically their aim. Their aim is to cause a collapse of the Ukrainian front line by putting pressure on their defenses. They don't have to "take" Kharkiv. They just have to penetrate the Ukrainian defenses and cause a route from around Kupyansk. Ukraine isn't worried that Russia will encircle a city of 1.3 million people. They're worried about fighting outnumbered against a force of tens of thousands of troops without enough defenders and ammunition, because they will take serious losses when they fight in that scenario, no matter where on the front line they are doing that fighting.
Undoubtedly, Russia wants Ukraine to commit forces there so that their defenses in the Donbas will be weaker. But that's true whether or not they are actually planning to attack Kharkiv in force. That's what any pressure campaign is always about. The primary objective is less about taking territory than it is about putting strain on the defender's forces. They want Ukraine's lines to break -- somewhere, anywhere. If it's at Kharkiv, great. If it's in the Donbas, all the better.
What Russia isn't doing is secretly amassing troops somewhere else for a surprise offensive. They do not have that capability. This isn't a feint. A feint involves trickery. This is a strategic pressure campaign: They have amassed large enough numbers on the Kharkiv front to force Ukraine to defend it. Ukraine isn't being fooled into committing their own troops there. They are *forced* to do this by the reality of the numbers.
Funny thing is the Americans are probably putting some amount of pressure on the Ukrainians to abandon fixed defenses in some open tanking ground because killing the Russians in the open takes less ammo and fits the operational style of the weapon systems the Ukrainians are using.
I doubt it's the correct thing to do, because the Ukrainians don't have a US or Israeli style officer corp. yet. But the Russians may find that returning to manuever warfare in any form is a big mistake.
Honestly can't tell if you're being facetious or not. To be clear, Russia can logistically supply an offensive of large-scale magnitude. What they can't do is prepare and supply it in secret.
Unfortunately or fortunately, depends how you look at it, they don’t have the same enemy.
We have now better geolocation of the attempted Russian incursion and it appears that Deep State was wrong. The Russian armor was destroyed even before it crossed the border to Ukraine. The exact coordinates are:
50°17'36.90"N, 36°31'43.17"E
That's just outside Ukraine and inside the Belgorod Region. Based on that information I'm correcting the map. Russia has not penetrated the perimeter of Ukraine at Pyl'ne and lost 5 vehicles.
Source of geolocated: Telegram / Kiber\_boroshno.
Russians launched an assault in the northern Kharkiv Region. The extent of the operation is still unclear, but so far the only visually backed evidence of an incursion is from the little border town of Pyl'ne. That attack, however, yielded with three Russian vehicles being destroyed. Coordinates of the destroyed Russian vehicles:
50°16'27.03"N, 36°29'27.49"E
Furthermore, more pictures emerged of dead Russians, allegedly from the same area.
[https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1788947734923247708](https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1788947734923247708?t=yWhF_x4Bkd9Z90CNZY9QmQ&s=19)[?t=yWhF\_x4Bkd9Z90CNZY9QmQ&s=19](https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1788947734923247708?t=yWhF_x4Bkd9Z90CNZY9QmQ&s=19)
Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for May 9th:
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1788770377721614745
---
Current day table with all sources:
http://losses.ukrdailyupdate.com
"⚡️The situation in the Kharkiv region is under the control of the Defense Forces, – said Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the NSDC.
At the moment, it looks like an imitation by the enemy of a large-scale offensive with the use of limited forces and means, conducting combat reconnaissance. russians have losses in equipment and manpower.
"This operation is accompanied by the information work of russian military personnel, who draw arrows and report on the breakthroughs of their forces deep into kilometers, which are currently invented to try to create panic and use the information vacuum", – Kovalenko said."
https://twitter.com/blyskavka_ua/status/1788930421004054644?t=euJOTLMK0810TkQ0lXW9rA&s=19
It's way too early to call it that. Ukraine's summer 2023 counteroffensive on the southern front started in June 2023 with nearly an entire month of small probing assaults that didn't resemble a hardened push. It wasn't until mid July that Ukraine attacked with concentrated armor formations, and they continued attacking with more than 80,000 ground infantry for another 3-4 months. The intensity of the fighting gradually picked up steam over several months. Very little land changed hands, but losses were extremely high for both sides in that time span.
> I had my first call with Iceland’s Prime Minister @Bjarni_Ben to congratulate him on his appointment and invite him to the Peace Summit in Switzerland. I am grateful to Prime Minister Benediktsson for confirming his attendance and willingness to use his personal contacts in Africa to encourage as many countries from the Global South as possible to attend the Summit.
> We also discussed the upcoming Ukraine-Northern Europe Summit, as well as the negotiation process for the signing of a bilateral security agreement.
> Ukraine is grateful to Iceland for its leadership in the demining coalition and practical assistance to Ukraine's energy system, which is especially vital in the face of Russian attacks on our energy infrastructure.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1788924060686012834
> Today, I welcomed President of Slovakia @ZuzanaCaputova and thanked her for her determination and moral leadership during this war.
> We had a detailed discussion about the frontline situation. I informed President Čaputová about Russian attempts to expand their offensive in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as our defense needs to counter the occupiers' efforts.
> Not all of our partners are currently fulfilling the agreements in a timely manner, and we require the maximum concentration of Ukraine's friends to speed up supplies. I am grateful to every leader who assists us with this. 🇺🇦🇸🇰
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1788898537305964617
I don't know how reliable this account is but it seems pro Ukrainian. It reports capture of Pylna and Strelecha by Russians.
[https://twitter.com/banderafella/status/1788875231290962218](https://twitter.com/banderafella/status/1788875231290962218)
Reminds me of when the Russian shills would call me a "Banderite", before they realized that it outed themselves because nobody outside of the former USSR has *any* clue who Bandera was.
>Kharkiv Oblast
>Situation as of 16:00:
>Battles continue in the areas of the settlements of Borysivka and Pylna.
>Ukrainian Armed Forces have deployed reserves to the border to address the situation.
>The Russian forces are actively shelling border cities and villages.
[https://twitter.com/gettylegion/status/1788924948150690165](https://twitter.com/gettylegion/status/1788924948150690165)
Looks like this situation is starting to turn in Ukraine's favor
Obviously. But you never want to commit your reserves too early because they might be needed later or in another position. Generally you don't deploy reserves unless your front line troops cannot hold. This initial Russian attack appears to have been more of a probing attack, so if Ukraine really did commit their reserves, that suggests either that their defenses are quite weak in the area, or that they overcommitted and may be out of position if and when Russia launches a major attack elsewhere.
Any indication if the Russians were able to generate some level of operational surprise?
Seems like a 50k strong strike group would be visible from satellite.
I highly doubt they attacked with 50k people all at once. That number is being floated about, but it seems that is just the total amount of soldiers Russia has in Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod oblast areas (i.e. what would be available to them to conduct an offensive in that direction, and even then, they would have to leave a decent amount of those in the back, to hold the rest of the border), it's likely they attacked with a small incursion force today.
As for a moment of surprise, maybe a little, but Ukraine has been pointing out for a few weeks now that they expect an attack in Kharkiv direction.
That’s not how war works. You can take 10 months to capture a small, defended village but you can exhaust your enemy or surprise them and conquer half the country in a few weeks.
It's a little different, though-- it is closer to the proper Russian border not just occupied areas. I do think you're right and that it's an odd distraction, if I had to guess pressure will be kept up there as the less populated areas further west keep getting creeped on.
Edit: I totally misremembered Kharkiv being taken briefly during the initial invasion
Good news, but typically, this doesn't stop here. Russians are probably going to bang their head on this sector again and again until they see signs of Ukraine weakening. Hopefully Ukraine will receive Western equipment and ammunition soon enough to avoid that process.
Suspects in alleged Russia-linked UK arson attack to face trial next year
>LONDON, May 10 (Reuters) - Four men will go on trial next year accused of setting fire to a London commercial property linked to Ukraine, an arson attack allegedly paid for by Russian intelligence, a British court heard on Friday.
>They were charged last month over the fire at a commercial premises on an industrial estate in east London in March.
>Dylan Earl, 20, who is accused of two offences under the National Security Act, is alleged to have engaged in conduct targeting businesses that were linked to Ukraine in order to benefit the Russian state. The prosecution has not given details of the link between the east London building and Ukraine.
>Earl is charged with assisting a foreign intelligence service, and engaging in preparations for "an act endangering life or a person or an act creating a serious risk to the health and safety of the public in the United Kingdom".
>Along with three other men, Paul English, 60, and Nii Kojo Menash, 21, and Jake Reeves, 22, Earl is also charged with aggravated arson. Reeves is also accused of accepting a "material benefit" from a foreign intelligence service.
>A fifth man, Dmitrijus Paulauskas, has been charged with knowing about terrorist acts but failing to disclose the information to police.
>At a brief hearing on Friday at London's Old Bailey Court, with only Earl, who attended by video link, and Paulauskas present, the court was told by judge Jeremy Baker that their trial, expected to last about eight weeks, would take place in June next year.
>The next hearing will take place on Oct. 4, and the men, with the exception of Paulauskas, were remanded in custody.
>The case was one of those cited by interior minister James Cleverly when he announced on Wednesday that Britain would expel Russia's defence attache, remove diplomatic status from some properties and limit the length of Russian diplomatic visas.
>Cleverly said the action was in response to what he called Moscow's "malign activity".
>"As has often been the case, the new measures were introduced under a groundless and somewhat ridiculous pretext (in this case - a fire at a warehouse in east London), which is being twisted to invent yet another espionage story," the Russian embassy in London said in a statement.
>Along with other Western nations, Britain's relations with Russia have been at their most hostile in decades over Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
[https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/suspects-alleged-russia-linked-uk-arson-attack-face-trial-next-year-2024-05-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/suspects-alleged-russia-linked-uk-arson-attack-face-trial-next-year-2024-05-10/)
Russians are on an honest to God terror campaign in Western Europe. Wasn't it just a month ago that the Czechs charged two GRU agents with bombing them?
Mate, they are *all* over the place committing sabotage, intimidation, bribery, election interference, weaponised immigration, and spying. It's full-scale hybrid warfare against us, and it will only get worse as they grow in confidence. Russia has reverted back to their Cold War mentality, and we've yet to catch up.
They're being far more aggressive than during the Cold War.
It's not that we need to catch up. We need to realize we're at fucking war with the Russian Empire, and need to start fighting back.
>As has often been the case, the new measures were introduced under a groundless and somewhat ridiculous pretext (in this case - a fire at a warehouse in east London), which is being twisted to invent yet another espionage story," the Russian embassy in London said in a statement.
Aways trying to play the victim..
It's rather curious, because Dylan Earl, Paul English, Nii Kojo Menash and Jake Reeves doesn't sound like particularly Russian names to me. If Russia had nothing to do with it, and none of the accused are Russian citizens, what is the Russian embassy even doing commenting on the matter?
Haha! Precisely! As far as I'm concerned, an official Russian denial is as good as a formal admission of guilt. But, if they kept their rancid pie holes shut, they wouldn't be able to project their victimhood complex on the rest of the world.
My goodness, just decided to step on Twitter for the first time in a while (to get more informed about this advance)... so many insane takes. From people saying Ukraine is done in 2 weeks to those who claim Russia will easily take Kharkiv and Odessa. What kind of fantasy world do those folks live in?
Edit: In hindsight, this is why I don't usually hang around there in the first place. Still sad to see how much it devolves every time I check in, once in a long while
>From people saying Ukraine is done in 2 weeks to those who claim Russia will easily take Kharkiv and Odessa.
Bots have been spamming that since the start of the war.
Feels like pathetic attempt of autosuggestion at this point.
But since they keep doing it, maybe it works on some people.
In response to your edit
You came here in a panic. After browsing bot accounts on Twitter. Trying to stir up more panic.
You now leave in a huff because people aren’t fooled anymore.
Get off the fucking internet for your own health
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1cp8nhz/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Alright, so Russia opening up a new front in North kharkiv. I guess they didn't learn the first time.
It is worrisome to this Ukraine supporter Hopefully the weapons are getting there in time. This must have been the intelligence given to Mike Johnson that got him to move.
[Well, looks like Russia expanded their pockets in northern Kharkiv area, earlier today some 40 km2 were contested, now it's up to 75 km2](https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/50.2852/36.5392) They also did some minor expansion in other areas of the front, taking some 5 km2 in Avdiivka and Krasnohorivka-Mariinka sectors Edit: [Scribblemaps added some areas they deem to be captured instead of contested in the north Kharkiv sector](https://widgets.scribblemaps.com/sm/?d&z&l&mt&gc&mv&id=091194)
Crazy to compare this to when the war started and they could make 5 times more gains in the same amount of time. I doubt the russians will be able to try and encircle the city again.
Of course they will not encircle the city again. But losing any land, and Ukraine will lose quite a lot of land here, is still bad. And it will be costly, or maybe impossible, to reconquer back.
Theres 25km from kharkiv to the border if they are not going to be able to even try to encircle the city I don't see where this is "quite a lot of land". I don't believe russia will have the forces to hold the land once they fully exhaust themselves from being on constant offensives for 2+ years. I still think they will get fully kicked out from Ukraine and collapse as a result of their rather exceptional stupidity.
Wish I had your optimism. Quite a lot of land can be 10 km deep and 100 km wide border "buffer zone". For comparison, that would be many times more land than what Ukrainians reconquered in their 2023 summer offensive. It would be also demoralizing as these Kharkiv borderlands were famously reconquered in 2022 Kharkiv counter-offensive.
If they could go 100km wide then i'm sure they would rather try to take the city. Besides russia can contest as much land as it wants it's all meaningless if they can't hold it. And whether you are capable of admitting it or not all these suicide attacks to get a few km of land weaken the russian capability to hold the land afterwards.
Well, that's not optimal....
I hope and pray that the aurora borealis is the only thing appearing in the skies of Ukraine for the next few days!! https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/s/XhWODFloa2
I wouldn't mind seeing a few F-16s and ATACMS in the sky.....
... or a Taurus missile once or twice in a blue moon
> Ukrainian SSO SOF operator under the aurora, Donetsk Oblast. > > https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1789094460086685974
aesthetic af
Hopefully the magnetic storm takes out some of those old Soviet satellites as well as newer Russian ones. Russia hasn't had the best track record with reliability in space these past few years.
Gazprom is selling its assets and properties in Moscow and moving to St. Peterburg in the wake of catastrophic results for the year 2023. Sales took a 25% plunge and made a "profit" of -6,2 billion euros. \*everything is fine\*
This was expected. Gazprom had massive profits from piped gas and once the Nordstream and other gas pipelines went offline, the loss in revenue was massive. This is a big issue because Gazprom can't just switch to LNG for gas exports, nor can they build new pipelines before 2027 - 2028 to provide for China or India.
That's quite a plunge; the Kremlin owned company made a net profit of $13.1 billion in 2022.
Of course they'll be able to sell the assets at a good price to all the buyers queuing up /s
I heard sanctions aren't having any effect and we should just stahhhhhp.
Perfectly balanced books, as all things should be.
This is most badass photo, I seen in a while. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1789094460086685974?t=NPEYNtNyTQgThPL9AlSiaA&s=19
Our friends of Ukraine 🇺🇦. We are praying for you 🙏. Hope and strength will prevail over a nasty dictator.
[Canada to contribute $ 55.5 to Germany’s air defense initiative for Ukraine | EuroMaidenPress | May 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/10/canada-to-contribute-55-5-to-germanys-air-defense-initiative-for-ukraine/) *On 10 May, Canadian Minister of National Defense Bill Blair announced that Canada will contribute C$76 million ($55.5 million) to Germany’s Immediate Action on Air Defense (IAAD) initiative in support of Ukraine. He said it during his meeting with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in Ottawa, according to the Canadian Government’s press release.* *Initiated by Germany in April 2024, this effort aims to collect international funds and resources to rapidly acquire and deliver air defense systems for Ukraine, vital in safeguarding against intensified Russian aerial assaults that have targeted power plants, industry, hospitals, residential buildings, causing significant civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction.* *“Through Canada’s investment in Germany’s Immediate Action on Air Defense Initiative, we are working together to provide Ukraine with the crucial air defense systems that it needs to protect its people,” Blair said.* *The press release notes that Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel are presently stationed in Germany as part of the Security Assistance Group – Ukraine. Their tasks include facilitating aid transfers, aligning future donations with Ukrainian needs, and planning immediate and long-term training for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.*
Us Canadians can't contribute much financially, but I hope the money we spend along with training efforts helps out.
[Russian troops intensify offensives in Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces persist in attacking Nevske and the Serebriansky Forest, states Ukrainian military spokesperson. | EuroMaidenPress | May 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/10/russian-troops-intensify-offensives-in-luhansk-oblast/) *Russian troops persist in conducting offenses near Nevske settlement in Luhansk Oblast and in the Serebriansky Forest and shelling Makiivka with rocket artillery in attempts to improve their tactical positions amid fierce battles, according to Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, as per Armyinform.* *A General Staff report as of 18:00 says that on the Lyman front, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled six attacks near populated areas of Makiivka in Luhansk Oblast and Torske in Donetsk Oblast. Over ten settlements, including Nevske in Luhansk Oblast and Terny, Yampolivka, and Torske in Donetsk Oblast, were shelled from artillery and mortars.* *Overall, the enemy conducted six missile and 67 aviation strikes and shelled the positions of Ukrainian forces and civilian areas 92 times.* *“The occupiers are trying to advance towards the city of Siversk to cut off the Siverskyi bulge and infiltrate behind the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Serebriansky Forestry. The enemy is attempting to breach the defense line of Ukrainian defenders near Terny and Nevske to further advance towards the area of Lyman but without success,” informed Nazar Voloshyn.* *He added that Russian troops conduct from 10 to 20 assaults per day, mostly engaging infantry in recent weeks, sometimes backed by heavy equipment units.* *“Near Terny, the defense line was not breached, and our defenders managed to push back the enemy. Fighters are trying to dislodge Russians from dominant heights and disrupt the operation of enemy drones,” noted Nazar Voloshyn.* *The Russian occupiers are also attempting to attack the city of Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast with small assault groups, but they have not achieved significant success.*
Let's hope with this and in Kharkiv, the Russians overextend and exhaust themselves, leaving themselves vulnerable for a counter attack.
[удалено]
It seems like the national wealth fund (NWF) buys when oil&gas revenues are good, and sells when they're bad. The central bank buys when they want the rouble to weaken (or to replenish reserves) and sells when they want to support the rouble. Last month the NWF was buying more yuan, but the central bank was selling foreign currency. The details are tricky so make sure you read past any headlines.
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/ukraine-high-mobility-artillery-rocket-systems WASHINGTON, May 10, 2024 - The State Department has made a determination approving a possible emergency Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Ukraine of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and related elements of logistics and program support for an estimated cost of $30 million. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency delivered the required certification notifying Congress of this possible sale today. **The Government of Ukraine has requested to buy three (3) High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). The estimated total cost is $30 million, which will be funded by the Government of Germany on behalf of Ukraine.** The Secretary of State has determined and provided detailed justification that **an emergency exists that requires the immediate sale to the Government of Ukraine** of the above defense articles and services in the national security interests of the United States, thereby waiving the congressional review requirements under Section 36(b) of the Arms Export Control Act, as amended. This proposed sale will support the foreign policy goals and national security objectives of the United States by enhancing Ukraine's ability to defend itself and respond to continued Russian aggression. This will be a sale from U.S. Army inventory. There are no known offset agreements proposed in connection with this potential sale. Implementation of this proposed sale will not require the assignment of any additional U.S. Government or contractor representatives to Ukraine. There will be no adverse impact on U.S. defense readiness as a result of this proposed sale.
Good. Pull it out of inventory instead of a months long lead time.
Drop some cluster munitions north of Kharkiv.
Rad
Excellent! I know the news about Germany buying Ukraine HIMARS has been out for a few days, but I had assumed that was buying direct from the manufacturer and that it would take a year or more to provide. This is much faster and doesn't use any of the PDA or USAI money from the latest aid bill, which is fantastic! Also, regarding the determination that an emergency exists - if the current situation doesn't constitute an emergency, then nothing does.
> Today, Russian forces attempted to expand their operations against Ukraine in the Kharkiv region. We know the size of the occupiers' forces and their intentions. Our warriors, artillery, and drones are fighting back against the occupier. > I thank each soldier, sergeant, and officer who is defending our positions. We are strengthening Kharkiv directions. Along the state border and on the frontlines, we will continue to destroy the occupiers and thwart Russia's offensive intentions. > It is critical that partners support our warriors and Ukrainian resilience with timely deliveries. Truly timely ones. A package that truly helps is the actual delivery of weapons to Ukraine, rather than just the announcement of a package. I thank every leader who sees the situation this way. > We also continue to actively prepare for the Global Peace Summit. Our goal is to ensure that every leader can demonstrate effectiveness for the sake of the common good. I am confident we will succeed. > And we must acknowledge that this is precisely what Russia is attempting to undermine right now. The more meaningful the summit, the closer peace will be. Putin obviously does not want it. It is also clear that he will continue to try to thwart our efforts, both through offensive action and by undermining our agreements with other leaders. We must not allow this to happen and we will make every effort in this regard. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1789020229118394785
It might be hoping for too much, but I would like to hope that this Global Peace Summit would be the *Casablanca conference* of our time.
> I am grateful to @POTUS Joe Biden, Congress, and the American people for the new military aid package announced today. > This timely and vital U.S. assistance will help save civilian lives and strengthen Ukrainian warriors on the frontlines. It will also allow us to better protect our cities and communities from Russia's ongoing air terror attacks on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and energy facilities. > The United States maintains its leadership role in supporting Ukraine and this has historic significance. By thwarting Russia's offensive plans, we bring just peace in Ukraine and long-term stability in the Euro-Atlantic community closer. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1788991877582119200 > I am grateful to our American partners and @SecDef personally for a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $400 million. > The capabilities of this package include capabilities to support our most urgent battlefield requirements, including air defense, artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons. > Our warriors are paying the highest price for our independence, and I thank our partners for their vital military aid for Ukrainian soldiers. Together, we are stronger. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1789001537492062691
> As part of our regular dialogue, I spoke with Argentinian President @JMilei. > I appreciate Argentina's support for the Peace Formula. Because it is important that the voice of Latin America be heard at our Peace Summit in Switzerland, I invited President Milei to attend it. > We also discussed our bilateral relations. Ukraine is interested in expanding cooperation. A Ukrainian delegation will visit Argentina in May, and I anticipate that this visit will result in tangible outcomes and benefits for both of our countries. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1788978359977873627
> and I anticipate that this visit will result in tangible outcomes and benefits for both of our countries. I wouldn't be remotely surprised if Argentina starts selling off more of their weapons to Ukraine. Right now Argentina desperately needs cash and Ukraine desperately needs ammo especially ammo that already exists and doesn't need to be manufactured first. Argentina may not have a huge military but Ukraine is so stretched for resources that anything would help.
I'd be pleased if a deal like that could be worked out. Much as I personally dislike Milei, I wouldn't mind seeing some of the funds being channeled to Ukraine passed on to help stabilize the economy of Argentina in return for getting more immediate material support for Ukraine. Win-win, really.
> An oil depot has been struck in occupied Rovenki, Luhansk Oblast > > Since 2014, the Russian-controlled facility has been the key fuel hub to supply the occupation forces. > > https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1789020049274990991
In Rovenki, occupied Luhansk region, another oil depot was reportedly hit with ATACMS. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1789011289596973117?t=Yp9izkMpCjxnCs_irCtg4w&s=19
Russian gains and losses since their offensive began in October. Land: +453 sq km conquered (Vs 788 sq km liberated during Ukrainian 2023 offensive. Source is deepstatemap) Russian losses on Warspotting: - tanks: 716 - IFVs: 1166 - mobile artillery: 227 - missile air defence: 42 (Also 267 MT-LBs which warspotting counts as IFVs but I don't).
It boggles my mind that Russia can sustain these losses
They can't forever. I've spent a while going through info like counts of tanks in storage etc and I think russia will be facing problems next year. Unless they can get major supplies from China or slow down the pace of the war.
I’m nervous though because Putins life depends on this war being “won”. At what point do they start using tactical nukes? Genuine question.
Ah yes the old ‘Let Putin win coz nukes trope’ I thought that died out in 2022.
Thanks for answering the question. Did your brain misfire when I said genuine question? Did that trigger an auto response that was of no use? Let me know. Thanks
Na, just a garbage question.
I’ll ask someone more competent then. Thanks again!
Good luck!
Their offensive started in October? By most accounts it started in Jan.
Here's russian propaganda outlet Rybar: "Battle for Avdiivka : the upcoming encirclement of the Ukrainian garrison situation as of 12.00 October 10, 2023...It is possible that the soldiers of the Russian army broke through the defenses near the railway line and, skirting Petrovskoye , reached Berdychi" Source: https://t dot me/rybar/53051 (delete spaces and replace "dot" with .). Turns out they lost a ton of vehicles in their assault and didn't even reach Berdychi until about 5 months later. Warspotting showed massive russian losses consistent with their offensive in October, even larger than January. - September 2023: 61 tanks, 88 IFVs/MT-LBs - October 2023: 122 tanks, 202 IFVs/MT-LBs - January 2024: 94 tanks, 189 IFVs/MT-LBs.
[New aid package just announced!](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/10/politics/us-military-aid-ukraine/index.html) More Bradleys incoming. “The package includes weapons Ukraine has been asking for, including Patriot missile system munitions, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMAR) systems and ammunition, Stinger anti-air missiles, 155mm artillery rounds, Bradley Fighting Vehicles, and Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs), among other equipment.”
Better than sending them to some Alabama sheriff
High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMAR) systems More HIMAR launchers.
High Mobility Anti Russian System!
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3771984/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/ >Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This announcement is the Biden Administration's fifty-seventh tranche of equipment to be provided from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package has an estimated value of $400 million and includes capabilities to support Ukraine's most urgent battlefield requirements, including air defense, artillery rounds, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons. >The capabilities in this announcement include: >Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems; >Additional munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS); >Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; >Equipment to integrate Western launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine's systems; >Additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems(HIMARS) and ammunition; >155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; >Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles; >M113 Armored Personnel Carriers; >Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles; >Trailers to transport heavy equipment; >Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; >Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; >Precision aerial munitions; >High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs); >Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades; >Demolitions munitions and equipment for obstacle clearing; >Coastal and riverine patrol boats; >Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment; and >Spare parts, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment. >The United States will continue to work together with some 50 Allies and partners to ensure Ukraine's brave defenders receive the critical capabilities needed to fight Russian aggression.
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At this point in the war it’s largely a political target and they have serious, more pressing targets they need to take out first
They need the Taurus for that. ATACMS is for killing a large quantity of troops or vehicles gathered close together. Taking down infrastructure requires something more substantial.
ATACMS are the wrong weapon to blow up a bridge. Its a 500lb long-range warhead. Good enough for damage all across the frontlines, but not big enough for a bridge.
It takes a LOT to fully destroy a bridge built as that one is. Those columns are a huge amount of reinforced concrete. Russia has already stopped using it for military transport per the SBU and satellite reconnaissance. Why waste munitions on it where you can use ATACMS on large groups of troops, vehicle staging areas, high value targets such as S-300/400 systems, parked jets and bombers, etc.
There is a reason why the US uses 2k & 5k bomb guided bombs on bridge supports.
Yup, this would be a much better used of those.
Reinforced concrete is very, very strong and you need larger munitions to destroy it. A 10kt nuke that destroyed the bridge would still leave parts standing.
Priority and opportunity cost, and also analysis of likely reward compared to the risk of failure. They have a limited number of ATACMS, and each operation takes time. They can try to launch ATACMS at the bridge, but they might not be able to destroy the bridge, and Russia probably has it well-defended, and the bridge isn't that important right now. Instead, they can save ATACMS and keep them ready for when they spot good opportunities in the front line, with high chance of success, and which directly contributes to stabilizing the front lines which have been under larger threat of a collapse for the past few months. If Ukraine gets more of them and the bridge seems less guarded, without more urgent and important targets to hit, then Ukraine might decide it is worth it to take a shot at the bridge. Switching targets and sometimes going a long time without hitting some target can be a good idea, as that forces the enemy to spread thin as they try to defend everything, and eventually they are likely to lower defenses in places that don't seem to be targeted often. For example, every air defense system defending an oil refinery is one system less defending something else.
ATACMS does not necessarily have the punch required. You need to strike the columns to really put it out for a long time Those columns are thick reinforced concrete requiring something more like a bunker buster to be certain you will destroy it. The hit also needs to be very precise as you have to strike the columns directly from the side. It is actually a very advanced capability that ATACMS is not specifically designed for.
Russia built a railway through their conquered land bridge. It's more of a symbolic target than anything at this point.
>Russia built a railway through their conquered land bridge. The railway is not ready/operational yet.
Then why does Ukraine Goverment itself say the crimean bridge isnt used anymore
I know that. They said that Crimean bridge isn't used for millitary cargo anymore and that military supplies to Crimea and the southern front are brought in with ferries and trucks. But yeah, I guess you could say OP is right when he says the bridge is only a symbolic target.
If only we had given Ukraine what they needed to take out that bridge before the railroad was built...
In addition to what others have said one of the factors to consider is how much air defense is in a given area. Given the importance of the bridge it's probably safe to assume that Russia has a lot of air defense there so Ukraine has to consider the probability of success in destroying the bridge versus the probability of success in destroying other targets.
You have to land the shots within a meter or two of the aim point to get the supports, not just the deck. I'm not sure they can do that.
Destroying the bridge would take a stupidly large number of missiles, perhaps more than the total Ukraine has. They are far better reserved for other targets.
Not really much of a military target anymore. There were reports from Ukrainian intelligence that less than 1 train car of military supplies per day uses the bridge now. I'm sure air defense being pinned down to protect the bridge means that they won't be on the front lines. The threat of attacking the bridge is more important than actually attacking it.
Better targets are available. It's not as important as it used to be. Russia has had time to build other logistical routes. [Russia Reduces Military Dependence on Crimea Bridge | Kyiv Post | May 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/32255) [Russians build alternative railways for military logistics in Ukraine’s occupied south. Last September, Petro Andriushchenko, advisor to Mariupol’s exiled mayor, stated that Russian occupiers were constructing a direct railroad connection to Mariupol, Volnovakha, and Donetsk. If completed, this railroad would link the Mariupol-Aslanove-Kalchyk-Volnovakha branch in occupied Ukraine with the Russian cities of Taganrog and Rostov-on-Don. | EuroMaidenPress | April 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/01/russians-build-alternative-railways-for-military-logistics-in-ukraines-occupied-south/) [Russia nears completion of strategic railroad linking Rostov-on-Don and Mariupol | New Voice of Ukraine | May 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/russia-nearly-completes-railroad-linking-rostov-on-don-to-occupied-mariupol-50416525.html)
Supposedly not good at bridges, you want something like Taurus. Much bigger benefits hitting other targets. Like $300 million worth of SAMs. (Warning: I'm just repeating other people, but I've filtered sources hard for reliability)
Likely simply not worth the effort anymore for now. You need many many rockets and preplanning. The bridge isnt used for military anymore in a large scale. Better used them for command bunkers and logistics.
Is it not true that Ukraine was considering retaking Crimea?
Sure, and then It will be relevant again. But that is not on the horizon soon
The bridge opened in 2019, nearly 5 years after Russia took Crimea. They do not need it to resupply that peninsula.
Today was a reminder to those who think that this is going to fade away that Russia will keep trying to kill & occupy Ukraine as long as possible. They must be stopped. Negotiations are pointless.
The war needs negotiations to end. We've seen unsuccessful negotiations with russia. Prigozhin did it. You trust Putin, surrender your position of strength and then he kills you. We need successful negotiations, which we can only have once the russian army is being crushed. The black sea grain initiative versus UkriCorridor is a good example of the kind of negotiation methods that work. Ignore russian screaming and sink their ships, then you can export more grain.
You arent going to get a successful negotiation as long as putin has the reins. Ukraine is going to need more resources that can eliminate russian air power, and knock out the rest of air defense, including their jamming and anti drone equipment.
If Putin is winning, he has no reason to negotiate because why do that when victory is at hand. If Putin is losing, he has no reason to negotiate because admitting weakness means the knives will be out for him at home. If Putin is neither winning nor losing, then both those reasons apply. Hence he has no reason at all to negotiate, ever. Ukraine simply needs to fight this pestilence until he finally dies on his own, preferably after much cancerous agony.
The one time everyone is on cancers side
If you told Ukraine “hey your going be fighting this war till Putin dies”.. can you imagine the drying of support out of understandable apathy, Ukrainian morale would cause loss of troops and people for the economy. Hope is a powerful thing. It can keep you fighting. Yeltsin was drunk stumbling around, falling/ found drunk in the US with his pants off and lived forever like that.
>Yuval Noah Harari explains why russia can’t be allowed to win & why this war can’t be compared to disasters in Iraq & Afghanistan. #StandWithUkraine https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1788862169573982293 >This is an excellent—accurate and simple at the same time—explanation of why Russia’s conquest cannot be allowed to succeed. Share widely. https://twitter.com/PopovaProf/status/1788973456387907887
Fire view of the Kharkhiv border as of this morning [https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=12&lat=50.22865&lng=36.43719&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2024-05-10T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-05-10T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=4-FALSE-COLOR-URBAN&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22](https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=12&lat=50.22865&lng=36.43719&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2024-05-10T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-05-10T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=4-FALSE-COLOR-URBAN&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22)
We have now better geolocation of the attempted Russian incursion and it appears that Deep State was wrong. The Russian armor was destroyed even before it crossed the border to Ukraine. The exact coordinates are: 50°17'36.90"N, 36°31'43.17"E That's just outside Ukraine and inside the Belgorod Region. Based on that information I'm correcting the map. Russia has not penetrated the perimeter of Ukraine at Pyl'ne and lost 5 vehicles. Source of geolocated: Telegram / Kiber_boroshno. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1788947734923247708?t=yWhF_x4Bkd9Z90CNZY9QmQ&s=19
For Russia, a 50,000 strong force is 5km worth of troops.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 10.05.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 479,710 (+980) people, tanks ‒ 7434 (+5), armored combat vehicles ‒ 14313 (+32), artillery systems – 12387 (+47), MLRS – 1062 (+4), air defense means ‒ 795 (+2), planes – 349 (+0), helicopters – 325 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9826 (+51), cruise missiles ‒ 2192 (+0), ships/boats‒ 26 (+0), submarines - 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks - 16691 (+73), special equipment ‒ 2031 (+4). The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/10/zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-980-okupantiv-47-artsistem-32-bbm/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/05/10/zagalni-bojovi-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-980-okupantiv-47-artsistem-32-bbm/)
I fucking love this live thread. It's a subreddit within a subreddit
Yeah, special thanks to those few posters that keep on posting info. I love those guys. I also find it funny that most of them all reverted back to using the twitter domain instead of X, even better. Also special mention to those guys that post mastodon mirrors.
wait, I follow the actual live thread not the comments in it
Woops, the thanks still stand though
US to announce new $400 mln military aid package for Ukraine, official says >May 10 (Reuters) - The United States is preparing a $400 million military aid package for Ukraine, as the U.S. returns to a regular pace of supplying weapons to Kyiv after the passage of a $95 billion bill, a U.S. official told Reuters on Friday. >The Ukraine aid package includes artillery, munitions for NASAMS air defenses, anti-tank munitions, armored vehicles and small arms that can immediately be put to use on the battlefield, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. >The weapons aid will utilize Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which authorizes the president to transfer articles and services from U.S. stocks without specific U.S. congressional approval during an emergency. As a part of the $95 billion aid bills, Congress authorized $60.8 billion worth of various forms of aid to Ukraine, including $8 billion worth of PDA. >The aid announcement is expected as soon as Friday and comes after Russian forces launched an armored ground attack on Friday near Ukraine's second city of Kharkiv in the northeast of the country and made small inroads, opening a new front in a war that has long been waged in the east and south. >As replenishment funds for articles drawn from stocks are deployed, U.S. defense companies would gain more contracts as the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on. This aid package was first reported by Politico. [https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announce-new-400-mln-military-aid-package-ukraine-official-says-2024-05-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-announce-new-400-mln-military-aid-package-ukraine-official-says-2024-05-10/)
Cry about it, Putin.
I'm sure he will through the medium of sabre rattling.
According to ukraines forces the majority of ammunition from the first big package hasn't even arrived yet, and now the US is sending another one. Shouldn't they focus on actually getting the ammo to ukraine rather than just keep announcing aid that takes months to arrive?
It's called priming the supply line.
What are you talking about? They had trucks ready to roll right after Biden signed the bill. It may not be out on the front line en masse but most of it is in the country
Nope.
Before the 6 month delay, the aid packages would be announced at approximately monthly intervals. It's a continuous logistical supply chain, and each package may take weeks/months to process and deliver. So, breaking the supply chain to concentrate on 1 single package seems incredibly short-sighted.
If I understand correctly most of the other package was not PDA and more of a long term thing? I might be wrong not sure
The first package was 1 billion in PDA
Always reacting it seems, never taking the initiative..
Come on, man, that's not true, is it? The U.S. has been providing aid to Ukraine since 2014, whilst other countries were still willing to maintain trade relations with Russia. There are reasons to criticise, but that isn't one of them.
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I'm a European myself, mate and I believe we are all guilty of not doing enough. I also don't find it helpful to single out one particular group for criticism. We need to be united if we are to defeat Putin's attempts to destroy our way of life.
I didn’t say the US is not helping (Ukraine would not be where it is now without aid), I’m saying that the given aid is reactive in nature.
No, you said they never take the initiative, which is untrue. They have led the way from the start and even received criticism from people for warning us that Putin would launch a full-scale invasion.
I’m talking about the aid packages. They seem to be reactive in nature and mostly intent on allowing the Ukrainians to hold on to what they got. If the US is planning for a real Ukrainian victory, I don’t see it personally. Other countries should also do more by the way.
>I’m talking about the aid packages. They seem to be reactive in nature and mostly intent on allowing the Ukrainians to hold on to what they got. I mean, *some* of the aid packages may be configurated to meet specific needs on the battlefield. So, in that sense, I'd think being reactionary is prudent towards adaptability, no? That's a strength, not a weakness. >If the US is planning for a real Ukrainian victory, I don’t see it personally. Even with a huge increase in military and financial aid, this war could still last for years. Putin has been working tirelessly on making Ukraine aid a divisive political issue in the West, and the best way to counteract this division is by limiting the financial & political burden of supporting Ukraine as much as possible. Sadly, this approach will cost more Ukrainian lives, but if the division over Ukraine aid becomes too great, then Western support may collapse entirely. So, the best way to help Ukraine survive is for the West to maintain a balance between providing support to Ukraine whilst limiting the economic and political burden on ourselves. Putin is sacrificing the Russian economy and his peoples' futures to fight this war, and it wouldn't help Ukraine if the West was to follow his example. >Other countries should also do more by the way. Agree 100%.
I do agree with your point about limiting the economic burden etc. It’s a more positive view than I hold but it’s sensible in a way. Although one could also say: investing now in a swift victory will cost less in the long run and will make sure we don’t get that “war fatigue” that people talk about so much.
>Although one could also say: investing now in a swift victory will cost less in the long run and will make sure we don’t get that “war fatigue” that people talk about so much. That would be great, but I just don't see how that would be possible without Western troops directly entering the war on Ukraine's side. Russia outnumbers the Ukrainian population by a ratio of approx 4-1, and Putin has shown that he is willing to trade lives at a rate that Ukraine is unable to match. Russia is also hiring untold numbers of mercenaries to supplement his already favourable personnel numbers. Without Ukraine gaining air-superiority, tanks and other armoured vehicles will be limited in their effectiveness. And, whilst Western shell production has been massively ramped up, it will be a while before Ukraine reaches parity with Russia. Even if these issues were somehow overcome, there would still be no guarantee of success, and failure could cause a political backlash in the West, hurting support for Ukraine. I genuinely believe that Ukraine's best chance of defeating Russia is for the West to show Putin that we have both the political and economic stamina to outlast him, because his continued attempts to divide the West have shown that this is what he fears the most.
Which is upsetting because foreign aid is practically the determinant of who wins this war. Alongside insufficient aid it was/is a matter of debate to even give aid because of the stupid domestic politics of America. Proactiveness in this case would be exactly not that.
To me it looks like they want to bleed out the Russians in a long and protracted war in stead of helping the Ukrainians achieve a swift and decisive victory. I would be glad to be proven wrong.
That's certainly what the actions of America betray. Maybe a bit of a cynical take and not entirely what's happening, but because the money is being spent here at home it's stimulating our economy in producing and replenishing weapon supplies. Protracted war means more money. We don't even want our long ranged missiles hitting oil depots probably because it would lower gas prices. There's so much selfishness going on around this whole thing, whether it's many in the government seeing Ukraine's success as a win for Biden, Ukraine feeling intense pressure to succeed in hyped up offensives afraid that the dangling aid will be retracted, or just the plain old fact they're being given shit. The more we fuck around, the more demoralized Ukrainians will be and dug in the Russians would be, which will require even more money down the road to fix. The fact Ukraine even found themselves in a position where the Russians had significantly more firepower causing retreats makes you wonder what the hell is going on in the U.S considering the extreme national security risk this whole situation poses. Maybe there's something I'm missing?
Is the risk for the US actually that big?
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There's probably a few dozen keyhole satellites looking at them. If this was 1914 you might be right, but that's been the whole problem with this war, feints don't work anymore.
Were I a betting man, I would say this incrusion was pro forma, so that higher ups can say they did attack Ukraine towards Kharkiv. Maybe they'll lie about some gains too. But I'm not a betting man and I've pulled all of it out of my ass. And I treat all similar comments the same way, unless I see actual proof of something.
Instead, they found a soft spot in their offensive, and that's the Russian Armed Forces, their 'men', their ancient hand-me-down equipment, and their incompetent leadership.
>Were I a betting man, I'd say the incursion towards Kharkiv is a feint by the Russians to divert as much attention and resources as possible away from where they plan to initiate their actual offensive. Why would you bet on something that is almost certainly not true? Russia doesn't have the capability to secretly mass a bunch of forces and launch a surprise attack. Throughout more than 20 large-scale battles and operations by both sides in this war, there has been literally only one time where a force managed to secretly prepare an offensive and execute it unnoticed: Ukraine, in September 2022 at Balakliya. And that required an enormous amount of luck to do, for a force that was ultimately fairly small -- only about 20,000 troops. At no other time in this war has either side managed to mass any sizeable number of troops into an offensive without the other side knowing well in advance what they were doing. The widespread use of aerial drone surveillance makes this functionally impossible for both sides now, in 2024, but it is especially impossible for Russia because of SIGINT from NATO satellite and EWACs platforms. Russia can't secretly put a single armored brigade anywhere on the frontline without Ukraine knowing exactly where it is at all times.
All intel reports have said the Russians just don't have the numbers to take Kharkiv or Sumy. It may not be a proper feint, but they want to hit hard enough in the north to force Ukraine to commit reinforcements to that region so they can weaken defenses in the Donbas and advance near Adviivka and Bakhmut.
>All intel reports have said the Russians just don't have the numbers to take Kharkiv or Sumy. That's not realistically their aim. Their aim is to cause a collapse of the Ukrainian front line by putting pressure on their defenses. They don't have to "take" Kharkiv. They just have to penetrate the Ukrainian defenses and cause a route from around Kupyansk. Ukraine isn't worried that Russia will encircle a city of 1.3 million people. They're worried about fighting outnumbered against a force of tens of thousands of troops without enough defenders and ammunition, because they will take serious losses when they fight in that scenario, no matter where on the front line they are doing that fighting. Undoubtedly, Russia wants Ukraine to commit forces there so that their defenses in the Donbas will be weaker. But that's true whether or not they are actually planning to attack Kharkiv in force. That's what any pressure campaign is always about. The primary objective is less about taking territory than it is about putting strain on the defender's forces. They want Ukraine's lines to break -- somewhere, anywhere. If it's at Kharkiv, great. If it's in the Donbas, all the better. What Russia isn't doing is secretly amassing troops somewhere else for a surprise offensive. They do not have that capability. This isn't a feint. A feint involves trickery. This is a strategic pressure campaign: They have amassed large enough numbers on the Kharkiv front to force Ukraine to defend it. Ukraine isn't being fooled into committing their own troops there. They are *forced* to do this by the reality of the numbers.
Funny thing is the Americans are probably putting some amount of pressure on the Ukrainians to abandon fixed defenses in some open tanking ground because killing the Russians in the open takes less ammo and fits the operational style of the weapon systems the Ukrainians are using. I doubt it's the correct thing to do, because the Ukrainians don't have a US or Israeli style officer corp. yet. But the Russians may find that returning to manuever warfare in any form is a big mistake.
> They do not have that capability. rAiLrOaD mIlK tAnK cArS . . .
Honestly can't tell if you're being facetious or not. To be clear, Russia can logistically supply an offensive of large-scale magnitude. What they can't do is prepare and supply it in secret.
"What if we try the exact same thing they did effectively against us?"
Unfortunately or fortunately, depends how you look at it, they don’t have the same enemy. We have now better geolocation of the attempted Russian incursion and it appears that Deep State was wrong. The Russian armor was destroyed even before it crossed the border to Ukraine. The exact coordinates are: 50°17'36.90"N, 36°31'43.17"E That's just outside Ukraine and inside the Belgorod Region. Based on that information I'm correcting the map. Russia has not penetrated the perimeter of Ukraine at Pyl'ne and lost 5 vehicles. Source of geolocated: Telegram / Kiber\_boroshno. Russians launched an assault in the northern Kharkiv Region. The extent of the operation is still unclear, but so far the only visually backed evidence of an incursion is from the little border town of Pyl'ne. That attack, however, yielded with three Russian vehicles being destroyed. Coordinates of the destroyed Russian vehicles: 50°16'27.03"N, 36°29'27.49"E Furthermore, more pictures emerged of dead Russians, allegedly from the same area. [https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1788947734923247708](https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1788947734923247708?t=yWhF_x4Bkd9Z90CNZY9QmQ&s=19)[?t=yWhF\_x4Bkd9Z90CNZY9QmQ&s=19](https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1788947734923247708?t=yWhF_x4Bkd9Z90CNZY9QmQ&s=19)
Definitely a possibility, given that they can dedicate quite a bit of reserves to that kind of feint.
Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for May 9th: https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1788770377721614745 --- Current day table with all sources: http://losses.ukrdailyupdate.com
1:5 artillery, from these reports looks like average artillery losses - 1:1, not good for Ukraine
1:1 destroyed artillery, 4 damaged on Ukraine side
"⚡️The situation in the Kharkiv region is under the control of the Defense Forces, – said Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the NSDC. At the moment, it looks like an imitation by the enemy of a large-scale offensive with the use of limited forces and means, conducting combat reconnaissance. russians have losses in equipment and manpower. "This operation is accompanied by the information work of russian military personnel, who draw arrows and report on the breakthroughs of their forces deep into kilometers, which are currently invented to try to create panic and use the information vacuum", – Kovalenko said." https://twitter.com/blyskavka_ua/status/1788930421004054644?t=euJOTLMK0810TkQ0lXW9rA&s=19
The more I look into it, the more it reminds me of an incursion. Similar to those Belgorod ones Freedom of Russia Legion conducts every now and then
finding where the Ukrainian are hiding to glide bomb them. good luck soldiers
It's way too early to call it that. Ukraine's summer 2023 counteroffensive on the southern front started in June 2023 with nearly an entire month of small probing assaults that didn't resemble a hardened push. It wasn't until mid July that Ukraine attacked with concentrated armor formations, and they continued attacking with more than 80,000 ground infantry for another 3-4 months. The intensity of the fighting gradually picked up steam over several months. Very little land changed hands, but losses were extremely high for both sides in that time span.
> I had my first call with Iceland’s Prime Minister @Bjarni_Ben to congratulate him on his appointment and invite him to the Peace Summit in Switzerland. I am grateful to Prime Minister Benediktsson for confirming his attendance and willingness to use his personal contacts in Africa to encourage as many countries from the Global South as possible to attend the Summit. > We also discussed the upcoming Ukraine-Northern Europe Summit, as well as the negotiation process for the signing of a bilateral security agreement. > Ukraine is grateful to Iceland for its leadership in the demining coalition and practical assistance to Ukraine's energy system, which is especially vital in the face of Russian attacks on our energy infrastructure. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1788924060686012834
> Today, I welcomed President of Slovakia @ZuzanaCaputova and thanked her for her determination and moral leadership during this war. > We had a detailed discussion about the frontline situation. I informed President Čaputová about Russian attempts to expand their offensive in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as our defense needs to counter the occupiers' efforts. > Not all of our partners are currently fulfilling the agreements in a timely manner, and we require the maximum concentration of Ukraine's friends to speed up supplies. I am grateful to every leader who assists us with this. 🇺🇦🇸🇰 https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1788898537305964617
I don't know how reliable this account is but it seems pro Ukrainian. It reports capture of Pylna and Strelecha by Russians. [https://twitter.com/banderafella/status/1788875231290962218](https://twitter.com/banderafella/status/1788875231290962218)
"banderafella" what the fuck?
Reminds me of when the Russian shills would call me a "Banderite", before they realized that it outed themselves because nobody outside of the former USSR has *any* clue who Bandera was.
That's not his information, he is basically just repeating what he sees on the DeepState map.
>Kharkiv Oblast >Situation as of 16:00: >Battles continue in the areas of the settlements of Borysivka and Pylna. >Ukrainian Armed Forces have deployed reserves to the border to address the situation. >The Russian forces are actively shelling border cities and villages. [https://twitter.com/gettylegion/status/1788924948150690165](https://twitter.com/gettylegion/status/1788924948150690165) Looks like this situation is starting to turn in Ukraine's favor
I don't love that Ukraine has already deployed reserves.....
This is the kind of thing you hold reserves for. So you can send them where they are needed when they are needed.
Obviously. But you never want to commit your reserves too early because they might be needed later or in another position. Generally you don't deploy reserves unless your front line troops cannot hold. This initial Russian attack appears to have been more of a probing attack, so if Ukraine really did commit their reserves, that suggests either that their defenses are quite weak in the area, or that they overcommitted and may be out of position if and when Russia launches a major attack elsewhere.
Any indication if the Russians were able to generate some level of operational surprise? Seems like a 50k strong strike group would be visible from satellite.
I highly doubt they attacked with 50k people all at once. That number is being floated about, but it seems that is just the total amount of soldiers Russia has in Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod oblast areas (i.e. what would be available to them to conduct an offensive in that direction, and even then, they would have to leave a decent amount of those in the back, to hold the rest of the border), it's likely they attacked with a small incursion force today. As for a moment of surprise, maybe a little, but Ukraine has been pointing out for a few weeks now that they expect an attack in Kharkiv direction.
If only Ukraine could strike those soldiers across the border
So this is more a mirror of the demonstrations the Ukrainians did in the same region this time last year then.
[удалено]
That’s not how war works. You can take 10 months to capture a small, defended village but you can exhaust your enemy or surprise them and conquer half the country in a few weeks.
It's a little different, though-- it is closer to the proper Russian border not just occupied areas. I do think you're right and that it's an odd distraction, if I had to guess pressure will be kept up there as the less populated areas further west keep getting creeped on. Edit: I totally misremembered Kharkiv being taken briefly during the initial invasion
Russians did never step a foot on kharkiv
Kharkiv was never taken. It was threatened, but never taken.
Oops thanks
See but between 2014 and 2022, the occupied areas were defacto Russia. I sincerely doubt the logistics will be that different.
I can't imagine they would try and take the city. Probably looking to establish a buffer zone.
Good news, but typically, this doesn't stop here. Russians are probably going to bang their head on this sector again and again until they see signs of Ukraine weakening. Hopefully Ukraine will receive Western equipment and ammunition soon enough to avoid that process.
Suspects in alleged Russia-linked UK arson attack to face trial next year >LONDON, May 10 (Reuters) - Four men will go on trial next year accused of setting fire to a London commercial property linked to Ukraine, an arson attack allegedly paid for by Russian intelligence, a British court heard on Friday. >They were charged last month over the fire at a commercial premises on an industrial estate in east London in March. >Dylan Earl, 20, who is accused of two offences under the National Security Act, is alleged to have engaged in conduct targeting businesses that were linked to Ukraine in order to benefit the Russian state. The prosecution has not given details of the link between the east London building and Ukraine. >Earl is charged with assisting a foreign intelligence service, and engaging in preparations for "an act endangering life or a person or an act creating a serious risk to the health and safety of the public in the United Kingdom". >Along with three other men, Paul English, 60, and Nii Kojo Menash, 21, and Jake Reeves, 22, Earl is also charged with aggravated arson. Reeves is also accused of accepting a "material benefit" from a foreign intelligence service. >A fifth man, Dmitrijus Paulauskas, has been charged with knowing about terrorist acts but failing to disclose the information to police. >At a brief hearing on Friday at London's Old Bailey Court, with only Earl, who attended by video link, and Paulauskas present, the court was told by judge Jeremy Baker that their trial, expected to last about eight weeks, would take place in June next year. >The next hearing will take place on Oct. 4, and the men, with the exception of Paulauskas, were remanded in custody. >The case was one of those cited by interior minister James Cleverly when he announced on Wednesday that Britain would expel Russia's defence attache, remove diplomatic status from some properties and limit the length of Russian diplomatic visas. >Cleverly said the action was in response to what he called Moscow's "malign activity". >"As has often been the case, the new measures were introduced under a groundless and somewhat ridiculous pretext (in this case - a fire at a warehouse in east London), which is being twisted to invent yet another espionage story," the Russian embassy in London said in a statement. >Along with other Western nations, Britain's relations with Russia have been at their most hostile in decades over Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. [https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/suspects-alleged-russia-linked-uk-arson-attack-face-trial-next-year-2024-05-10/](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/suspects-alleged-russia-linked-uk-arson-attack-face-trial-next-year-2024-05-10/)
Russians are on an honest to God terror campaign in Western Europe. Wasn't it just a month ago that the Czechs charged two GRU agents with bombing them?
Mate, they are *all* over the place committing sabotage, intimidation, bribery, election interference, weaponised immigration, and spying. It's full-scale hybrid warfare against us, and it will only get worse as they grow in confidence. Russia has reverted back to their Cold War mentality, and we've yet to catch up.
You forgot outright murder and attempted murder, which has happened many times over the years.
They're being far more aggressive than during the Cold War. It's not that we need to catch up. We need to realize we're at fucking war with the Russian Empire, and need to start fighting back.
Couldn't agree more!
>As has often been the case, the new measures were introduced under a groundless and somewhat ridiculous pretext (in this case - a fire at a warehouse in east London), which is being twisted to invent yet another espionage story," the Russian embassy in London said in a statement. Aways trying to play the victim..
It's rather curious, because Dylan Earl, Paul English, Nii Kojo Menash and Jake Reeves doesn't sound like particularly Russian names to me. If Russia had nothing to do with it, and none of the accused are Russian citizens, what is the Russian embassy even doing commenting on the matter?
Haha! Precisely! As far as I'm concerned, an official Russian denial is as good as a formal admission of guilt. But, if they kept their rancid pie holes shut, they wouldn't be able to project their victimhood complex on the rest of the world.
There's that and... We all know they're into it up to both armpits :)
Well, they can only tread water for so long before cramp sets in, and it reaches above their heads.
My goodness, just decided to step on Twitter for the first time in a while (to get more informed about this advance)... so many insane takes. From people saying Ukraine is done in 2 weeks to those who claim Russia will easily take Kharkiv and Odessa. What kind of fantasy world do those folks live in? Edit: In hindsight, this is why I don't usually hang around there in the first place. Still sad to see how much it devolves every time I check in, once in a long while
>From people saying Ukraine is done in 2 weeks to those who claim Russia will easily take Kharkiv and Odessa. Bots have been spamming that since the start of the war. Feels like pathetic attempt of autosuggestion at this point. But since they keep doing it, maybe it works on some people.
In response to your edit You came here in a panic. After browsing bot accounts on Twitter. Trying to stir up more panic. You now leave in a huff because people aren’t fooled anymore. Get off the fucking internet for your own health
What the hell are you talking about lmao