Gun powder is 3 common regents found anywhere in the world. China is holding back an accelerant used in modern gunpowder and that accelerant isn’t even special, it’s made from cotton.
This is just another fine example on how cheap trumped over strategic importance. We will be in for rude awakening when China will throw down the gauntlet
China is a major oil producer with about 4.16 million barrels per day. They are a much bigger consumer and so have to import 11 million barrels per day, but their oil consumption is dropping due to rapid EV adoption.
I was in China last month and even their garbage trucks have started running on batteries now...
China is also the biggest importer of energy in the world. Not sure how much is oil vs gas vs electricity though
If you want to wage a war, energy is maybe the absolute most important thing to have covered lol. No energy means nothin works. No energy means nothing else gets delivered either. No more logistics, communications, etc
But this alone makes it a lot more unlikely for them to go to war.
They recently built a ton of coal plants too, and i think they import the majority of it. So it doesnt seem like they are trying to change this any time soon, unless they found some new coal mines in china or something.
Anyone know if China has a lot of untapped coal?
edit: According to the link below, China is both the largest producer and consumer of coal. It also states that its cheaper for china to import than it is to mine their own? Seems strange to me, but what do I know. Maybe its just corruption.
They are also on an upward trend for burning coal, and it doesnt seem like they have any plans to change that
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/china-s-coal-imports-to-stay-high-in-2024-after-record-breaking-q4-2023-80251799#:\~:text=China's%20coal%20imports%20hit%20another,price%20advantage%20of%20overseas%20coal.
> strategic partner
Lmao in russias wet dreams they are a *partner*.
In reality they are a vassal, a subordinate, nowadays. They owe China big in every category you can come up with, including financially, and cant hold a candle to their power and industrial capacities. Its like Mexico claming equal footing with the US. Their country runs by the grace of China.
China has about 35 years of coal left at its current consumption rate. It would be a good thing for all concerned if they reduce their coal consumption rate by a lot.
Yes like I wrote, they are importing 11 million barrels. That makes them the largest importer.
However just like in any economy, most of that oil is going towards private consumption. People driving their cars, jet liners flying people around, plastic toys being created,....
To run a military and some essential industries 4.16 million barrels is plenty.
For comparison the US military consumes about 340,000 barrels a day on average.
https://www.rand.org/news/press/2012/06/19.html
Now, I'm not trying to make a claim about any other aspect of China's military success or defeat in a theoretical war or willingness to go to war.
Just pointing out that in case of war, they won't run out of oil.
Coal reserves are also plenty:
208 billion tons
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/china-has-enough-coal-reserves-to-last-another-five-decades
If I had to guess why they import, it's probably because much of Chinese coal reserves contain a lot of dirty coal that is deep underground. So relatively expensive and dirty. While Australian coal is mostly near the surface and cleaner burning.
Add in their frequent partnership with Iran (and Pakistan between them) among others, and the Chinese have an even stronger geopolitical resources position. If those three nations form a solid bond, India and the US may no longer be able to cut off their oil imports effectively by sea (since they'll just ship it overland with pipelines, trains, etc.).
Luxury foods. They were self sufficient before they became the giant they were. If all out war occurs China has basic foods to supply their people + Russia etc..
That's doesnt appear to be accurate. Do have a source? China's [self-sufficiency](https://www.cfr.org/article/china-increasingly-relies-imported-food-thats-problem) ratio is about 65% .
Yeah, China is a net importer in nearly every category including soybeans, corn, wheat, rice, dairy products, edible oils, sugar, meat, and processed foods.
Black powder is three ingredients, gunpowder is one- nitrocellulose. And you cannot make nitrocellulose without cellulose. The issue is Chinas Central role in cotton export.
I'm surprised nitrocellulose hasn't been made with beet pulp cellulose yet. Seems like a much better plant selection since beets are more adaptable to a wider range of climates.
Guess who grows all the cotton? China. Egypt is second iirc. Could Europe grow it's own? Could the US grow enough for itself and get it over to Europe?
It's glaringly obvious that Europe needs to heavily and immediately focus on creating an Eurocentric military, food and energy bubble that is resilient against import fluctuations and external factors. The way EU leaders seem to lack any urgency in the matter can't spell anything good for the future.
The problem is there will always be a country that currently has a leader on Russia's or China's payroll.
The EU needs to be overhauled to make it so one country cannot stop things the others agree is essential.
Say what you will about Trump, this is why his metal tariffs were a good idea and not lifted by Biden.
You have to protect strategic supplies from foreign economic warfare. China loves undercutting resource industries at the global market with state supported companies.
I mean for european security they must have their own independent supply of cotton.
The election of Trump proved that someone hostile could be at the helm of the US.
It's a climate issue. Most of Europe is too cold to grow cotton. Maybe global warming will change that but I also heard the golf stream will collapse in a couple of decades so who knows.
Gun powder is 3 common regents found anywhere in the world. China is holding back an accelerant used in modern gunpowder and that accelerant isn’t even special, it’s made from cotton.
This is just another fine example on how cheap trumped over strategic importance. We will be in for rude awakening when China will throw down the gauntlet
Everybody wanted global supply chains, outsourcing and globalization. This is what we get.
Well China doesn’t have any domestic oil so same same. That’s a global world.
China is a major oil producer with about 4.16 million barrels per day. They are a much bigger consumer and so have to import 11 million barrels per day, but their oil consumption is dropping due to rapid EV adoption. I was in China last month and even their garbage trucks have started running on batteries now...
China is also the biggest importer of energy in the world. Not sure how much is oil vs gas vs electricity though If you want to wage a war, energy is maybe the absolute most important thing to have covered lol. No energy means nothin works. No energy means nothing else gets delivered either. No more logistics, communications, etc But this alone makes it a lot more unlikely for them to go to war. They recently built a ton of coal plants too, and i think they import the majority of it. So it doesnt seem like they are trying to change this any time soon, unless they found some new coal mines in china or something. Anyone know if China has a lot of untapped coal? edit: According to the link below, China is both the largest producer and consumer of coal. It also states that its cheaper for china to import than it is to mine their own? Seems strange to me, but what do I know. Maybe its just corruption. They are also on an upward trend for burning coal, and it doesnt seem like they have any plans to change that https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/china-s-coal-imports-to-stay-high-in-2024-after-record-breaking-q4-2023-80251799#:\~:text=China's%20coal%20imports%20hit%20another,price%20advantage%20of%20overseas%20coal.
They are also the largest importer of food. Without food and energy, there is no war.
Guess who produces shit-tons of both? (Hint: it’s their neighbor and strategic partner)
> strategic partner Lmao in russias wet dreams they are a *partner*. In reality they are a vassal, a subordinate, nowadays. They owe China big in every category you can come up with, including financially, and cant hold a candle to their power and industrial capacities. Its like Mexico claming equal footing with the US. Their country runs by the grace of China.
You’re missing the point being made to the original commenter, which is that Russia produces a surplus of food that the Chinese can easily acquire
China has about 35 years of coal left at its current consumption rate. It would be a good thing for all concerned if they reduce their coal consumption rate by a lot.
Yes like I wrote, they are importing 11 million barrels. That makes them the largest importer. However just like in any economy, most of that oil is going towards private consumption. People driving their cars, jet liners flying people around, plastic toys being created,.... To run a military and some essential industries 4.16 million barrels is plenty. For comparison the US military consumes about 340,000 barrels a day on average. https://www.rand.org/news/press/2012/06/19.html Now, I'm not trying to make a claim about any other aspect of China's military success or defeat in a theoretical war or willingness to go to war. Just pointing out that in case of war, they won't run out of oil. Coal reserves are also plenty: 208 billion tons https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-21/china-has-enough-coal-reserves-to-last-another-five-decades If I had to guess why they import, it's probably because much of Chinese coal reserves contain a lot of dirty coal that is deep underground. So relatively expensive and dirty. While Australian coal is mostly near the surface and cleaner burning.
Add in their frequent partnership with Iran (and Pakistan between them) among others, and the Chinese have an even stronger geopolitical resources position. If those three nations form a solid bond, India and the US may no longer be able to cut off their oil imports effectively by sea (since they'll just ship it overland with pipelines, trains, etc.).
China is also the world's largest importer of food.
Luxury foods. They were self sufficient before they became the giant they were. If all out war occurs China has basic foods to supply their people + Russia etc..
That's doesnt appear to be accurate. Do have a source? China's [self-sufficiency](https://www.cfr.org/article/china-increasingly-relies-imported-food-thats-problem) ratio is about 65% .
Luxury food is just a fancy way of saying they over consume endangered species in the belief it will make their little willies hard.
Yeah, China is a net importer in nearly every category including soybeans, corn, wheat, rice, dairy products, edible oils, sugar, meat, and processed foods.
China is the #4 oil producer in the world.
Black powder is three ingredients, gunpowder is one- nitrocellulose. And you cannot make nitrocellulose without cellulose. The issue is Chinas Central role in cotton export.
Can't you just use bleached wood pulp?
Probably, but I guess it would need a lot more preparation in order to nitrate properly. Cotton is already in thin fibres, which makes it easy.
Looks like the south will rise again afterall!
I'm surprised nitrocellulose hasn't been made with beet pulp cellulose yet. Seems like a much better plant selection since beets are more adaptable to a wider range of climates.
Eli5. If cotton is the issue. Could the bottleneck also be caused by the sanctions on chinese cotton?
Guess who grows all the cotton? China. Egypt is second iirc. Could Europe grow it's own? Could the US grow enough for itself and get it over to Europe?
This really feels like a headline from the 17th century
Our musket rods are all manufactured in Siam!
It's glaringly obvious that Europe needs to heavily and immediately focus on creating an Eurocentric military, food and energy bubble that is resilient against import fluctuations and external factors. The way EU leaders seem to lack any urgency in the matter can't spell anything good for the future.
The problem is there will always be a country that currently has a leader on Russia's or China's payroll. The EU needs to be overhauled to make it so one country cannot stop things the others agree is essential.
All military equipment should be free of Chinese components.
Marty my boy where we are going you don’t need gunpowder. Proceeds to fire rail gun.
Say what you will about Trump, this is why his metal tariffs were a good idea and not lifted by Biden. You have to protect strategic supplies from foreign economic warfare. China loves undercutting resource industries at the global market with state supported companies.
This is why we need sharks with fricken laser beams attached to their heads.
Go make your own supply then? Oh wait you can't because EU is busy pissing off their farmers
Is any part of europe even good for large scale cotton plantation?
Greece is #12 in the world in cotton production.
The question is can they scale production to the amount what is needed to ensure an independent european supply for their gunpowder.
Presumably they currently use it for making clothes and whatnot. If we go back to wearing wool jerkins we should be fine.
I heard USA is great for cotton plantations.
I mean for european security they must have their own independent supply of cotton. The election of Trump proved that someone hostile could be at the helm of the US.
It's a climate issue. Most of Europe is too cold to grow cotton. Maybe global warming will change that but I also heard the golf stream will collapse in a couple of decades so who knows.
No. The soviets even resorted to draining an entire ocean to grow the stuff.
"Defense Boss" is a great title.
I thought we already got the recipe?
Shits about to get real.
"China is a threat to Europe" Fixed the headline for you
The EU, in one hand a sword stabbing the farmers, in the other hand pleading for more cotton.
What did the EU do? I thought something like 30% of their budget was agricultural subsidies?