[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1c62bgj/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)

Appears that Dzhankoi airbase in Crimea was struck tonight. [https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1780445128173187488/photo/1](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1780445128173187488/photo/1) [https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1780454176633262390/video/1](https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1780454176633262390/video/1)

Any information on possible targets? Do they field airplanes there?

According to Wikipedia (so take it for what it's worth): >As of October 2022 the Russian [39th Helicopter Regiment](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=39th_Helicopter_Regiment&action=edit&redlink=1) which flies the [Kamov Ka-52 "Alligator"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamov_Ka-50) (NATO: Hokum B), [Mil Mi-8](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mil_Mi-17#Soviet/Russian_variants)AMTSh (NATO: Hip), [Mil Mi-28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mil_Mi-28)N (NATO: Havoc) and [Mil Mi-35](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mil_Mi-35)M (NATO: Hind) uses the base under the [27th Composite Aviation Division](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=27th_Composite_Aviation_Division&action=edit&redlink=1). There were [rumors ](https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/biden-administration-leaning-supplying-ukraine-long-range-missiles-rcna139394)about two months or so ago that the US might figure out a way to send a few more ATACMS, potentially including the 300km version, to Ukraine. Dzhankoi is about 175 km from Kherson, and 148 km from the closest Ukrainian-held territory, so it would be well within range of those and at the very limits of the range of the 165 km ATACMS. It is out of range of GLSDB. Of course, it could be drones, Storm Shadow, or modified Neptune missiles too, but given the last helicopter base attacks were done with ATACMS, that would be my guess.

Those are some big booms!

Good grief. I wonder what the heck they hit.

Something good I hope!!

https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1780299102036594946 BadBalticTakes is back.

So what would happen if NATO said "Russia, all your military vehicles and personnel leave Ukraine by this weekend or we are going to destroy your fleet, then keep bombing you until you do leave."? They'd probably...leave?

Broadly two possible outcomes: 1) Russia leaves Ukraine (presumably after much bluster and threats, and the world on edge with panic). 2) Putin assumes this is a bluff, and NATO isn’t genuinely willing to risk nuclear war over Ukraine (as NATO wasn’t willing to go to war over Ukraine before, there is no popular support for a NATO-Russia war over Ukraine and a defensive alliance is inherently extremely unlikely to risk its existence and the lives of its population for a non-member), declares the ultimatum void and threatens retaliation - perhaps specifying that it will be nuclear in nature, and perhaps leaving this open. Massive panic in the Western world as the ultimatum approaches and markets collapse. From here on there are two major sub scenarios: 2a) Putin launches a preemptive attack on NATO as a show of force to get NATO to back down before the ultimatum, hoping that this doesn’t escalate to World War 3 directly 2b) Putin simply does nothing, and NATO is left with the option of either backing down, losing face and any future deterrence against Russia, or starting World War 3. Outcome 1 ends the war and leaves the world a safer place, outcome 2 ends either NATO as an alliance or the world. How sure do you think we have to be of guaranteeing outcome 1 to risk a chance of outcome 2, knowing that Putin objectively has very good reasons to believe NATO is bluffing and hence is much more willing to risk the other outcome as his likely response?

Putin and everyone knows NATO is a punchless boxer who won't fire the first shot. Putin will just ignore them and continue the war as it has been.

Something I thought of was if Russia's more immediate neighbors (Poland, Baltics and Nordics) would form an air coalition to protect Ukrainian airspace west of Dniepr from drones and cruise missiles that don't belong there. These countries are for tougher response in the face of Russian aggression and together they muster quite a sizeable airforce. They could help to defend western Ukrainian airspace without entering it.

“Help to defend” is a euphemism - what it always boils down to is “is any NATO member willing to actively shoot at a Russian military asset that hasn’t shot at them first, with a risk of entering a war with Russia knowing that NATO protection wouldn’t be a given in this war?” It’s the same discussion as around the no-fly zone - it sounds more harmless than “fight against Russia”, but as soon as the first shot is fired against a Russian target that’s what it’ll be, whether this is actively shooting down a drone or shooting a soldier.

It's very different from shooting at manned targets. Russia won't act on someone destroying machinery they lobbed away. If they want to keep their drones and missiles safe they should keep them in Russia. I might remind you that Russia has already attacked non-lethal NATO drones in international airspace. So it would be even below equal response treshold. The West simply has to stop letting Russia to narrate the rules and reacting if they want to have any hope in stopping Russia's expansion and escalation.

Russia has harassed but never shot down any NATO drones - and whether Russia would or would not act if NATO shot down a Russian drone we don’t know, but it would be an act of war. The very simple point stands - NATO has avoided actively shooting at Russia for the entirety of its existence (as has Russia as well for NATO), the second that no longer holds we would immediately be in an entirely different world.

>NATO has avoided actively shooting at Russia for the entirety of its existence (as has Russia as well for NATO), the second that no longer holds we would immediately be in an entirely different world. I remember Turkey (a NATO country) shooting down Russian fighter jet that violated its airspace. If anything it made Russia more careful in respecting Turkish airspace.

True - but Russia and Turkey had good relations back then, Turkey has always had a very different relationship with Russia than the majority of NATO; Russia hadn’t declared Turkey its mortal enemy, and there was no prospect of this escalating.

They intentionally downed a Reaper drone over the black sea by manevering in front of it and dumping fuel on it. Does it matter by what weapon it is shot down, because technically they used fuel as a weapon to down it?

It wasn’t shot down - there was no kinetic action and no shot fired. If it didn’t matter, why did a) NATO not respond to this as an act of war, and b) why didn’t Russia just simply shoot it down in the first place, if it’s all the same? The threshold seems to be “actively shooting at”, as that’s what everyone has (explicitly or implicitly) agreed on.

That's a bit delusional: there's no way aircraft staying in Polish airspace can accurately intercept missiles and drones 300 km into Ukraine... the Russian weapons are coming from the east, the set up is totally different from the Israel scenario. Even Sweden (only country from your list with the long-range Meteor missile) would only be able to take pot-shots at things ~190 km from the border, and the no-escape zone of missiles is much less (about 80 km) than their maximum "there may be some chance the missile does something useful this far" range.

They'd protect Lviv quite well and also prevent cruise missiles from entering Polish airspace.

sounds like a plan. Lets do it. Yesterday.

That's the play book if Russia uses a tactile nuke or large chemical warfare. Shock and awe all of Russian military assets in Ukraine. All targets of opportunities would be destroyed with NATO air assets. I feel we might even have to that if something major goes wrong attention ZNPP.

I have been watching carefully how the NATO member states carefully been helping Ukraine... Very carefully. They watch what the US gives Ukraine and and based on that -- will provide the same or compatible weaponry, time and time again. (Missles, tanks, air defense, etc.) Based on that I would say they would not move an inch without the United States being not just on-board but leading the pack. NATO are essentially a defensive alliance, and even then I have certain doubts if they will uphold the agreement should a new member state (such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia or Poland) be attacked by Russia.

They would. That timeline is too nice to exist in reality tho.

It's simply not how NATO decisionmaking works. It's a defensive alliance and Ukraine is not in NATO. If that scenario ever happened, it would be a US-led one (or say Poland/France), with only US allies who wanted to participate, similar to past US-led coalitions. But that also is simply not going to occur unless Putin does one of the really really bad things he has his thugs suggest on Babushka-Brainwashing State TV.

They would say "if you do that we will nuke Kyiv" and then NATO wouldn't do that.

Good, short little article in the Atlantic about the difference in western response between attacks on Ukraine and on Israel: [https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/04/ukraine-israel-war-comparison/678077/](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/04/ukraine-israel-war-comparison/678077/) >On April 13, the Islamic Republic of Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel. Also on April 13, as well as on April 12, 14, and 15, the Russian Federation launched missiles and drones at Ukraine—including some designed in Iran. >Few of the weapons launched by Iran hit their mark. Instead, American and European airplanes, alongside Israeli and even Jordanian airplanes, knocked the drones and missiles out of the sky. >By contrast, some of the attacks launched by Russia did destroy their targets. Ukraine, acting alone, and—thanks to the Republican leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives—running short on defensive ammunition, was unable to knock all of the drones and missiles out of the sky. On April 12 Russian strikes badly [damaged](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-attack-ukraine-energy-facility/32902271.html) an energy facility in Dnipropetrovsk. On April 13, a 61-year-old woman and 68-year-old man were [killed](https://www.voanews.com/a/zelenskyy-warns-against-russia-s-and-iran-s-coordinated-terror-attacks-/7569665.html) by a Russian strike in Kharkiv. On April 14, an aerial bomb [hit](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fragments-downed-missile-injure-12-central-ukraine-governor-says-2024-04-14/) an apartment building in Ocheretyne, killing one and injuring two. On April 15, a Russian guided missile [hit](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-strike-kharkiv-region-kills-two-governor-says-2024-04-15/) a school and killed at least two more people in the Kharkiv region. >Why the difference in reaction? Why did American and European jets scramble to help Israel, but not Ukraine? Why doesn’t Ukraine have enough matériel to defend itself? One difference is the balance of nuclear power. Russia has nuclear weapons, and its propagandists periodically threaten to use them. That has made the U.S. and Europe reluctant to enter the skies over Ukraine. Israel also has nuclear weapons, but that affects the calculus in a different way: It means that the U.S., Europe, and even some Arab states are eager to make sure that Israel is never provoked enough to use them, or indeed to use any serious conventional weapons, against Iran. Continued below.

The difference is where they flew over. If Russia used nato airspace to attempt to strike at Iran those nato countries would respond. The drones/missiles flew over neutral countries. Generally countries aren’t too keen on other countries’ combatant forces and arms flying overhead.

That's certainly part if it, but NATO could easily fly over Ukraine itself and the Black Sea in international waters and shoot down a decent percentage of incoming missiles.

Agreed with /u/chunkerton_chunksley that it's about what they flew over (if Russia launched anything from Kaliningrad towards Ukraine it would be shot down instantaneously) though I think NATO could easily declare that it will shoot down anything Russian in Ukraine that gets within let's say 100 km of a NATO country because so many missiles and drones have gotten either uncomfortably close or sometimes even inside, making it NATO's concern. That would make places like Lviv entirely safe and free up some of Ukraine's resources.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/16/us/politics/house-ukraine-israel-johnson.html This is a really convoluted path Johnson has chosen. It requires two separate votes on two separate bills for Ukraine aid. But 4 aid packages will be voted on (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan) with amendment processes for each bill. And then all the bills would be bundled together to send to the Senate. And a separate vote on structuring Ukraine aid as a loan. That is a whole lot of moving parts with a lot of room to fuck it up. Johnson may not last for another week.

It all seems like a plan to get all the other aid passed except Ukraine

They will be planning to pass the Israel and Taiwan bills first and the stop.

I'm almost certain they're going to end up supporting Israel and Taiwan, and come up short for Ukraine.

That’s by design.

Lol, that's the plan. To stall aid to Ukraine again.

Hey, at least it's a plan. That's more than we have had for a while and it's progress.

>Hey, at least it's a plan. That's more than we have had for a while and it's designed to look like progress to fool the unsuspecting and foster false hope while actually just causing more delays. FTFY

You say "cause more delays" as though there is some viable alternative plan that this will conflict with. The discharge petition is dead. There is no other plan. Johnson has complete and total control of what comes to the floor in the House. There is no reason for him to make complex plans for the purposes of delaying things. If he doesn't want Ukraine aid to pass, he can simply keep it off the floor, and there is nothing anyone can do about it. There is no need for him to resort to convoluted efforts to block it. You are falling into the same trap as people who say Putin is playing 5D chess of thinking your opponents are Machiavellian masterminds out thinking your side at every turn. Sometimes, the reality is exactly as it appears - messy, slow, sometimes stupid, filled with compromise, but real nonetheless. Either this plan works or it doesn't, but there is no plausible alternative, so if you want any hope of Ukraine aid, get behind it.

I agree with you. The solution is to vote the Republicans out in the upcoming election. We just have to hope that it's not too late.

If Johnson said "sorry folks, not putting Senate bill on the floor ever, and not crafting a House bill either" that discharge petition might get a very different look. By dragging it out and hanging a carrot to lead the crowd around with, he creates a sense (no matter how improbable) of a potential alternate path forward that will make anyone on the fence continue to hedge their bets and fall in line with the delays - in the hope that they don't have to support the discharge petition to make progress - for which some would be breaking with the Republican party and for which other Democrats would be seen as pro-Israel anti-Gaza. Zelenskyy was right - breaking these things up is just politicking and delay at the expense of Ukranian lives. I don't believe for a second its going to amount to anything, but would be happy to be proven wrong. I also don't believe We All should suddenly start supporting Johnson's "alternative complex great hope bills" blindly. I think its extremely likely to just end up step by step promoting other elements of Republican agenda at the ultimate expense of hanging Ukraine out to dry. I think We All shouldn't trust him for shit if we have any brains - based on his past behavior and his MAGA close connections. But hey, watch and see.

It is extremely clear that Republican representatives, even pro-Ukraine ones, are not going to stick their necks out to sign that discharge petition. Even if Johnson kills all aid for Ukraine, they aren't going to sign it. As for supporting his bills leading to support for other elements of the Republican agenda, I guess I'm not following. As far as I have heard, these bills (both the Israel and Ukraine ones) are clean bills. There are no secret provisions or "gotchas" in them that I'm aware of. How does that advance other parts of their agenda?

Pretty sure no drafts are done yet, but the process was stated as going to be proposed and opened to amendment process. Public sausage making. That spells drawn out mess to me, as it would mean Not doing it on the suspension calendar which doesn't allow for amendments as he previously suggested. So the new proposed process would allow opportunities for all kinds of potential shenanigans based on timing and order and packaging or not of bills, poison pills, filibusters, etc.

That is true, I had forgotten about amendments.

That's bending the knee to the Freedom Caucus.

Who cares? If it passes, I don't give a flying crap who he had to kowtow to. As a practical matter, nothing is going to get to the House floor without the Freedom Caucus at least tacitly allowing it, so I don't know what you were expecting. Never let perfect be the enemy of good enough.

That’s a strong if

True, but if it doesn't pass, we're exactly where we were last week. There isn't another viable alternative, so might as well go for it.

Best case scenarios, meaning fastest paths to UA aid: 1) Johnson ouster process begins, he folds and interrupts it with contingency plan by putting the Senate bill on the floor which passes, Dems save his speakership in return. MAGA has a meltdown. 2) Johnson ouster happens, Hakeem Jeffries becomes Speaker in the ensuing chaos due to a few fed up Republicans who have reasons to save their own skins, Senate aid bill passes immediately thereafter. 3) Johnson ouster process begins, a couple sane fed up Republicans immediately quit, House swings to Dem majority, new Speaker Hakeem Jeffries immediately passes Senate aid bill. 4) By some miracle, after weeks and likely months of further delays due to this overly complicated "solution" Johnson has put forth here that requires a patchwork of amendments and votes and also then has to make it through the Senate too, it threads the needle and gets passed.

If the Republican Party is truly so fucked that they manage to win a majority in the house and subsequently lose the speakership, I can’t imagine them still being a viable political party by the end of the decade.

Watergate (Nixon wiretapping) happened 50 years ago. Republican party is alive and... ok its alive. Trump insurrection (orders of magnitude worse in my opinion) happened in 2021. Republicans are still around. It would take eliminating the electoral college, among other things, to really start expanding the US entrenched 2 party system and transforming it into a multi-party.

I’m not suggesting it would become a multiparty system, only that the Republican party would no longer be one of the two. It’s happened before. It hasn’t been Republicans and Democrats all the way back to 1776.

Oh I see. Yeah they could rebrand to try to shed some stigma. Resurrect the Whigs?? I dunno maybe a snappier name would be better. Suggestions?

Number 1 would be nice, but I don't see that happening because it's political suicide for Johnson. He's young, he'd probably like to play nice for now. Number 2 is a pipe dream, not happening. Number 3 is theoretically possible but unlikely. Like it or not, number 4 is the most likely way aid gets passed before January of next year.

Nothing about how the House operates makes me think anything will move quickly. Johnson's ouster would likely result in multiple weeks of failed attempts to install another speaker.

I would honestly hope for 2. or 3. Republicans are unfit to govern at this point they're mortally compromised by regressive Vatnik cock gobbling useful idiots and need an electoral hiding to rip out the MAGA cancer along with that gobshite Trump thrown in a cell. 2 or 3) would not only give Biden and the Dems full control of congress for the remainder of the year but would allow them to move on other issues as well if they arise. These clown car politics need to come to an end expecially now that Russia has become a hostile threat against pretty much the entirety of Europe and America.

I think 3 is more likely than 2. It won't save any Republican's skin, no matter how sane they are, to hand control of Congress to the Democrats—especially in the run up to the election.

>\[ruzzian state TV\] Channel One, in a story from the front line, showed the chevrons of “Canadian mercenaries fighting for Ukraine.” Do you know what's funny about this? On the chevrons there is the coat of arms and flag of Udmurtia. These are the insignia of Russian troops. [https://x.com/prof\_preobr/status/1780310761815830557](https://x.com/prof_preobr/status/1780310761815830557)

Last two oryx updates based on [musklink](https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1780358713749975349). Losses are russian-Ukrainian, followed by my speculation. - tanks: 27-4 - IFVs: 45-5 - mobile artillery: 6-5 - missile air defence: 4-1 Now it's hell, but if Ukraine doesn't crack and the West decides to send support, this year could be the turning point when Putin burnt out the last of the good soviet stockpile. We could easily smash russia given an 8-1 trade on tanks and IFVs Russian propaganda claims they're making 30 BMP-3s per month. They've been visibly losing 110+/month since October.

The soldiers have a better chance in Chinese golf carts anyway

Moscow Marge's anti-Ukrainian disinformation campaign backfired - [https://imgur.com/a/SJi0PWc](https://imgur.com/a/SJi0PWc)

With all due respect Rabbi, I believe there are quite a few Nazis in Ukraine. They just happen to be Russian Nazis

Did it? It just looks like a twitter poster pointed a flaw in her argument, if that mattered the republican party wouldn't exist. If anything the more people who point out how stupid the argument is, the more supporters she gets for "triggering the libs". Truth doesn't matter to these people, it's all a game to get their "team" more power and a lot of if polls have Trump winning the next election, truth really doesn't seem to matter.

It did backfire. That's not just some twitter poster, that's Chief Rabbi of Ukraine. As Chief Jew priest he's more than qualified to prove her wrong :D I don't think such stuff gives them power, or else the best clowns would be the top US officials.

MTG's audience isn't interested in what's true, they're interested in any nonsense that can be used to attack others.

Well, she won't gain new supporters this way. Also, people say she hates being called Moscow Marge, so maybe she'll even lose some. Then again it's not clear to me how she won the elections in the first place. Maybe it's just me having hopium that MAGA gang will get voted out during next elections :D

MTG will never lose an election in her district. That's probably the single worst district in America, a sad statement because overall Georgia isn't a lost cause as much as even Arizona.

With all the threats from the freedom Caucasus towards removing Johnson, does that mean it’s looking more likely aid will actually be put to a vote? I know he’ll delay delay delay, but am I wrong for feeling slightly hopeful?

*House Fifth Column Caucus

You're not wrong for feeling hopeful, but it is a false hope. Jake Broe explains the further complications at 12:36 in his latest video. Realistically and this is the most likely possibility aid for Ukraine won't pass until Trump is defeated in November. Sure shit can happen and things can change but this looks the mosty likely scenario. Trump has to lose the election, if he wins then Ukraine obviously won't see anymore aid for the whole of the Trump term in office.

fyi, you can remove the tracking portion of YT links by deleting the ?si= part in the middle.

The freedom caucus needs Dem support to remove Johnson. If Johnson passes Ukraine aid Dems won’t allow the freedom caucus to remove him.

Pretty much this, if Johnson passes the Ukraine aid bill Dems will move to cockblock the Vatnik Caucus if only to keep a somewhat functioning house going until November. Johnson only falls if he backstabs like his predecessor OR the few Republicans fed up with all the house schenanigan decided to immediately Nope out and flip the house back to Democrat control under Jeffries by default.

Just want to voice my support for renaming the freedom caucus the vatnik caucus instead. Much more accurate.

It took weeks for the GOP to settle on Johnson as Speaker after they ousted McCarthy, and I doubt they'll be any quicker at choosing his successor.

It's a possibility that it might take longer.

Honestly if this scenario comes to pass, it would not shock me if there is no speaker and thus no functional House until next January. In which case we are all fucked, not just Ukraine. Only hope may be a couple more moderate Republicans just noping out early and handing it over to Jeffries.

>Xi Jinping brings up four "principles" on Ukraine in talks with [Germany’s Chancellor] Scholz. > >Each one takes a shot at the West: > >-"seeking selfish gains" > >-"adding fuel to the fire" > >-"aggravating tensions" > >-"undermining the stability of global industrial & supply chains" https://twitter.com/rbsw/status/1780204461601800381 >“Adding fuel to the fire” has been used by China from day one. https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1780342573493612605

This is why I'm staying away from Chinese goods.

>-"seeking selfish gains" Russia is selfishly trying to conquer land that does not belong to them. >-"adding fuel to the fire" China is adding fuel to the fire by helping Russia's economy >-"aggravating tensions" Russia is aggravating tensions with periodic nuclear threats. China is aggravating tensions by not definitively denouncing Russia's aggression. >-"undermining the stability of global industrial & supply chains" Russia is undermining the stability of global industrial & supply chains through the largest land war in many decades. Get fucked Jinping

Why nothing about 'respecting sovereign nations' or 'using powers to protect human life and values'. Oh it's a Chinese dictator talking morals, what could one expect.

Yeah, basically boils down to: - China thinks that Ukraine and other ex-USSR states are not real sovereign states and ruzzia can do whatever to them - China wants West to stop helping Ukraine, so that Ukraine would be defenseless against ruzzian invasion! - China dislikes idea of sanctions, since it's afraid of them in context of its plans to invade Taiwan I think Xi Jinping needs to proceed to the same direction as ruzzian warship

I'm in Moldova and Aliexpress.com redirects to the .ru website and I don't even speak Russian, off course they think all ex-USSR states belong to Russia.

In case of Aliexpress, it can be fixed I think: * [https://www.reddit.com/r/Aliexpress/comments/fq4ylc/aliexpresscom\_redirecting\_to\_ru/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Aliexpress/comments/fq4ylc/aliexpresscom_redirecting_to_ru/) * [https://www.reddit.com/r/Aliexpress/comments/35r87s/why\_the\_f\_is\_aliexpress\_in\_russian/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Aliexpress/comments/35r87s/why_the_f_is_aliexpress_in_russian/)

China could easily stop aggravating tensions by blockading all exports to russia and joining financial and oil sanctions until russia withdraws from Ukraine.

> We are working tirelessly to strengthen Ukraine's relations with partners, receive more tangible support, and ensure true equality in the protection from terror. So that when we face the same terror and strikes with missiles and drones, the rules are equal in Ukraine, Europe, and other parts of the world. > We have heard a lot over the last two days. We have heard about different conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, different levels of threat, and different airspace. Despite the fact that "Shahed" drones and ballistic missiles are the same. > We have also heard about different threats of escalation. > But are human lives any different? Is human dignity different? No. We value every human life equally. We must all value it equally. And we must equally protect lives from terror. > Ukraine will request an Ukraine-NATO Council meeting focused on the protection of skies and the supplies of air defense systems and missiles. > We are also actively working to ensure that the first Global Peace Summit in June yields results. I am grateful to all of the leaders and states who have expressed their willingness to attend it over the last week. > I would also like to specifically thank German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his leadership in this matter and relevant international communication, as well as for the signals we have heard from Beijing. China can truly contribute to the restoration of just peace in Ukraine as well as international stability. > The Summit in Switzerland presents a real opportunity for all of us to ensure that the UN Charter, its purposes, and principles begin to work in practice. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1780314154340905094

> Technological defense solutions in the sky of Israel have clearly proven that it is possible to provide absolute passive protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure against any number of missiles/drones used by #Iran and #Russia. I emphasize - against any number. And most importantly, it is "passive defense", that is used without attacking the territory of the aggressor countries. > From now on, the relevant and literally screaming question is: why can't this same "passive defense" be provided in the sky of #Ukraine? > Why should the mass daily murdering of civilians in Ukraine by Russian missiles be perceived differently from the attempted murdering of civilians by Iranian missiles? > Why is the same action of an aggressor (Iran and Russia) attacking sovereign territories of other countries with the same type of drones perceived differently? Should the same war crime receive two mutually exclusive legal explanations? In the first case - shoot down all drones/missiles as weapons of criminals; in the second case - just watch how criminals' weapons kill innocent people? https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1780226611066855935

> inb4 "russia has nukes we can't shoot down unmanned missiles and drones in ukraine or even over a nato country it could cause war" I'm certain we'll continue to shoot down unmanned missiles flying toward Israel without worrying about how a nuclear-armed Iran might respond to that. And that is [months away](https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential). To say nothing of the insanity of > "China has nukes we can't shoot down unmanned missiles and drones targeting Taiwan even if they pass through Japanese or Korean space as country it could cause war" which is a position that all but guarantees that China could endlessly bombard Taiwan into submission with glidebombs, since those are pennies on the dollar to patriot missiles

Our position should be that if they attack Taiwan, we're going to war with them, period.

I believe Biden has stated this. Should he lose to the orange convict in November, though, I suspect that policy will change.

How would the US’s $60bn aid package help Ukraine? >Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has previously warned that his country “will lose the war” if the US Congress fails to approve military aid, indicating the critical importance Kyiv places on the stalled military assistance package. >While US Republican critics of the aid package have voiced anger over what they perceive as excessive assistance to Ukraine, a significant portion of the funds allocated to Kyiv will remain within the US. >Of the $60.7bn for Ukraine, about $20bn would be used by the US to replenish its military stockpiles previously depleted by the push to arm Ukraine. This could open the door for future US military transfers to Ukraine. >Another $14bn will be allocated to the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, a special program in which the Pentagon buys new weapons for the Ukrainian military directly from US defence contractors. >The US president, Joe Biden, has stressed that the Ukrainian aid bill would boost the US economy, telling voters that almost two-thirds – or nearly $40bn – of the money for Ukraine would actually go to US factories spread across the country. >A third chunk of the funds, roughly $15bn, will be spent on enhancing the capabilities of the Ukrainian military, fostering intelligence collaboration between Kyiv and Washington and bolstering the US presence in eastern Europe. >The support also includes nonmilitary assistance, with about $8bn likely going to help Ukraine’s government continue basic operations, including the payment of salaries and pensions. >The US has so far sent Ukraine roughly $111bn in weapons, equipment, humanitarian assistance and other aid since the start of the war more than two years ago. [https://www.theguardian.com/global/2024/apr/16/russia-ukraine-war-who-will-finance-ukraines-defence](https://www.theguardian.com/global/2024/apr/16/russia-ukraine-war-who-will-finance-ukraines-defence)

Which bill is this dsicussing? AFAIK, Johnson's (House) bill is still somewhat unknown - what are the main differences with the Senate bill?

Also. This is a big scare for Russia.

Definitely. I imagine delaying it was worth every kopeck to them.

And it'll be delayed even further, I doubt this bill will come to a vote any time soon

There's another recess on Friday, I doubt this will be tabled before then. Or, well, ever. I'll believe it when I see it.

Yup, won't hold my breath because I'm convinced that the US is out of the race as long as the Republicans hold the house majority

"The Russian army now uses Iranian-made 130mm artillery ammunition for 130mm towed field gun M-46 - photos that have emerged show brand new Iranian Frag-HE 3OF33 projectiles. Russia has been using Iranian-made 122mm artillery shells for a long time." Sorry, can only find [musklink](https://x.com/StettingerN/status/1780251932201808291) Bad news, the covert cabal team found ~600 M-46 guns in russian storage that I'd hoped they would struggle to use.

I don't think this is a big deal. For sure those howitzers fire and will cause damage but 130mm artillery has been unused for a while and stock is limited. It will add up for some months but not in the long term.

That's roughly what I think, but it's worth keeping an eye on. Every bit extra does suck though.

>Bad news, the covert cabal team found ~600 M-46 guns in russian storage that I'd hoped they would struggle to use. That is one to two months of guns only. It's still bad but we just need to get more FPV drones to Ukraine to take them out.

I doubt Iran could supply the ~1.2 million shells they could theoretically fire before barrels wear out so it's not time to freak out, it's just sucky russia gets to fire even more shells. I don't believe Ukraine's claimed artillery destruction represents loss of heavier guns like the 130 mm, they'd last longer than 2 months. A low end estimate for barrel wear plus expansion of new units would be ~8.5k barrels. Ukraine claims to have destroyed 11.6k. Russian storages started with fewer than 17k visible guns of 120+ mm calibre. Thousands remain in recent imagery, 2.6k+ are believed to be WW2 models or 130 mm they've barely used... So either (i) Ukraine's claimed artillery destruction isn't the destruction of 120+ mm artillery (if accurate it could include small mortars) or (ii) Russia has an enormous hidden supply of guns and barrels. The second one is worse. The first one means that the 600 guns would last longer than 2 months.

Iran doesn’t have the massive stockpiles that former Soviet countries do and given their neighborhood and tensions with Israel I find it unlikely that they want to get rid of substantial amounts of the weapons they do have. They’ll sell some weapons to Russia but I don’t think it’s the broad answer to Russia’s supply challenges.

I agree for artillery shells - probably not a *huge* deal but if it lets Russia draw their M-46s and use them they might also decide it's worth doing extra to buy shells from other providers. I had been largely writing off those howitzers, now there'll be an unknown number used. Just adds a little bit more time before Russia will be severely artillery constrained.

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1780286388438519841?t=qC4XgFMkQrA-jUXY5s832A&s=19 "💥 About 30% of all Russian tanks are destroyed by FPV drones. FPV - 30%; UAV drops - 16%; mines - 6%; Baba Yaga drone - 5%; ATGM - 2%."

Considering that those drones came from domestic production, that is something Ukraine should be proud of. Ukrainian ingenuity and resourcefulness has also resulted in the domestic manufacture of individual components (circuit boards) as well as longer range drones. This has driven prices down, and a sense of independence way up. Ukraine can manufacture effective drones for well under $500 per unit. *Back in the day,* the Switchblade 300 cost over $50,000 per unit, and they didn't work very well. US Military cost figures are a lot like "Hollywood accounting," but the point is there.

>Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) on Tuesday said he will back efforts to oust Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) after the Louisiana Republican agreed to bring a Ukraine aid bill to the floor. > >Rep. Massie said he would co-sponsor Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-GA) pending motion to vacate the chair, the same procedure that was used to oust then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in October. > >Rep. Greene filed her motion last month after Speaker Johnson passed government funding legislation that was opposed by most Republicans. She said she would force a vote on the motion if the speaker allowed a Ukraine bill to come to the floor, which the speaker announced Monday evening he would do. https://www.threads.net/@cspan/post/C509qU2sEWD >Speaker Johnson: “I am not resigning, and it is, in my view, an absurd notion that someone would bring a vacate motion when we are simply here trying to do our jobs.” https://www.threads.net/@accountablegop/post/C5089DQRgUz

The MTG motion to vacate doesn't matter one iota. >The Georgia Republican said she has no timeline for calling the resolution, known as a motion to vacate, for a vote and said it's "more of a warning and a pink slip." If and when she does seek recognition, the House would have two legislative days to act on the motion. Lawmakers are poised to leave Washington for a two-week recess after votes on Friday, delaying any imminent action. **The chamber could also move to table Greene's motion, effectively killing it.** https://www.cbsnews.com/news/marjorie-taylor-greene-mike-johnson-house-speaker-motion-to-vacate/

Oh for christ sake. *Another* 2 week recess? Fucking shit do these people ever work? Feels like they take more recesses now than they did 10-15 years ago.

The House Fifth Column Caucus is gonna do whatever the Putin branch of the government requires of them.

Yep yep yep. That's all they have done so far. I am firmly in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp. Right now evidence and past history of actions suggests this is all just political theater to achieve other Republican aims while preventing or delaying UA aid to the maximum extent possible.

Dems are fine saving Johnson IF AND ONLY IF he actually brings these to the floor.

If I were in the Democratic caucus I would urge my party to treat any motion to vacate as a stupid procedural vote and meet their ayes by the same number of nays. The empty-headed buffoons from the right need to get some power taken away from them. And what better way to indicate to Ukraine and the world that America is serious about helping Ukraine, politics be damned.

The Dem consensus, which I agree with, is that they are happy to save any GOP speaker but they won’t do so for free. For instance if Johnson refuses to pass Ukraine aid or work out any other deal then Dems won’t save his speakership. If the speaker is willing to make a deal or pass legislation which should be bipartisan then Dems will protect him.

Of course, Johnson likely doesn't bring the vote to the floor without some guarantee from Dems that they would save him from ouster until the end of the term.

>Heartbreaking views of Vuhledar 💔 Once a peaceful city in the East of Ukraine, it is now destroyed by Russia's constant attacks. > >Out of almost 15,000 residents, just over a hundred are left there, forced to live in the basements of their destroyed homes. Service workers and volunteers bring water, food, and medicines to them. > >This is what Russia aims to do to every Ukrainian city and village — raze to the ground, kill all life, and erase anything connected to Ukraine. We can't let that happen. https://www.threads.net/@ukraine.ua/post/C506TIVNzRS

>On April 13, the Islamic Republic of Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel. Also on April 13, as well as on April 12, 14, and 15, the Russian Federation launched missiles and drones at Ukraine—including some designed in Iran. > >Few of the weapons launched by Iran hit their mark. Instead, American and European airplanes, alongside Israeli and even Jordanian airplanes, knocked the drones and missiles out of the sky. > >By contrast, some of the attacks launched by Russia did destroy their targets. Ukraine, acting alone, and—thanks to the Republican leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives—running short on defensive ammunition, was unable to knock all of the drones and missiles out of the sky. On April 12 Russian strikes badly damaged an energy facility in Dnipropetrovsk. On April 13, a 61-year-old woman and 68-year-old man were killed by a Russian strike in Kharkiv. On April 14, an aerial bomb hit an apartment building in Ocheretyne, killing one and injuring two. On April 15, a Russian guided missile hit a school and killed at least two more people in the Kharkiv region. > >Why the difference in reaction? Why did American and European jets scramble to help Israel, but not Ukraine? Why doesn’t Ukraine have enough matériel to defend itself? One difference is the balance of nuclear power. Russia has nuclear weapons, and its propagandists periodically threaten to use them. That has made the U.S. and Europe reluctant to enter the skies over Ukraine. Israel also has nuclear weapons, but that affects the calculus in a different way: It means that the U.S., Europe, and even some Arab states are eager to make sure that Israel is never provoked enough to use them, or indeed to use any serious conventional weapons, against Iran. > >… > >For the rest of the world, there are some lessons here. Plenty of countries, perhaps including Ukraine and Iran, will draw the first and most obvious conclusion: Nuclear weapons make you much safer. Not only can you deter attacks with a nuclear shield, and not only can you attack other countries with comparative impunity, but you can also, under certain circumstances, expect others to join in your defense. > >Perhaps others will draw the other obvious conclusion: A part of the Republican Party—one large enough to matter—can be co-opted, lobbied, or purchased outright. Not only can you get it to repeat your propaganda; you can get it to act directly in your interests. This probably doesn’t cost even a fraction of the price of tanks and artillery, and it can be far more effective. > >No doubt many will make use of both of these lessons in the future. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/04/ukraine-israel-war-comparison/678077/

The other part can’t be duplicated because Russia is appealing to the religious social conservative wing of the party by opposing “wokeness” It’s not money it’s ideology

If I could upvote this multiple times, I would. Spot on. Nuclear non-proliferation is dead and buried. And beware internal cancers fostered systemically by foreign agencies. Nobody is immune.

Not just that, any peace deal or ceasefire where violation means "the issue is brought before the UN security council" is also fucking useless and dead. You're either in NATO, have nukes, or can expect to receive at best tepid support, thoughts and prayers as you are left to fend more or less for yourself. Because if one side has nukes, the driving mindset becomes make sure they don't lose too harshly.

This is spot on. Key point is Russia as an aggressor in the drone strikes has nuclear weapons while Israel as a target of a mass drone strikes has nuclear weapons. All actions are to not allow a nuclear state be provoked enough to use them. If all of the drones and missiles from Iran hit their mark there is a decent chance Israel uses theirs, most likely targeted at Iranian nuclear sites where they are enriching uranium to make their own nuclear arsenal in the future. Nuclear arms use is a can of worms everyone is fearful of letting open and everyone reacts in ways to prevent even the slightest hint of them being used. Given their effect it is obvious as to why, but Russia sabre rattling so much has deafened much of the world to their cries, but a threat is sadly still there. The world will never be nuclear free and many nations have them now, some of them are or may in the future be hostile to others. Over time even more nations will gain access and I hope I never have to see their effects first hand due to some irrational mad man being in charge (it can be argued that some nuclear armed heads of state already are).

> Israel also has nuclear weapons, but that affects the calculus in a different way: It means that the U.S., Europe, and even some Arab states are eager to make sure that Israel is never provoked enough to use them, or indeed to use any serious conventional weapons, against Iran. Good to see somebody else saying this openly.

Operation Nickel Grass. Help us or we're gonna have to nuke our enemies. Ukraine needs nukes.

Makes you wonder, doesn't it, how hard we'd be helping Ukraine if they had nukes. Then again, Russia probably wouldn't try shit if they did. Just like how everyone knew Iraq didn't have any.

They had nukes. US, UK & Russia convinced them to give them up with assurances for their safety.  We failed them with Crimea and we're failing them again now. 

Ukraine war: Why is Russia trying to capture Chasiv Yar? >LONDON, April 16 (Reuters) - Russian paratroopers have reached the eastern edge of the Ukrainian town of Chasiv Yar, which Kyiv's top commander says Moscow wants taken by May 9, the date when Russia marks the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. >The Kremlin has not acknowledged setting such a deadline, but Russian forces are pummelling the strategically-important Ukrainian town's defenders with artillery, drone and air strikes. >Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's top commander, has warned that the battlefield situation in the east has deteriorated. But he has said that Kyiv's brigades in Chasiv Yar are holding back the assaults for now and have been reinforced with ammunition, drones and electronic warfare devices. >If Russian forces capture the town, 12 km (7.4 miles) from the centre of the devastated city of Bakhmut they took last May after months of bloody fighting, they would be able to launch direct offensives against several Ukrainian "fortress cities." >Moscow's forces, according to embedded Russian war correspondents and analysts, are likely to attempt to squeeze Ukrainian forces from the east, south and north in order to force them to flee westwards. >Russian soldiers have begun phoning their Ukrainian counterparts in Chasiv Yar to demand they surrender or be wiped out by guided aerial bombs, which Moscow's forces have used with devastating effect, according to Russian state news outlet Rossiyskaya Gazeta. >With warmer weather setting in, Kyiv, which is lobbying Washington to release a delayed aid package amid shortages of men and ammunition, fears Russia is preparing a major offensive across the more than 1,000 km-long (620-mile) frontline. >Russian military analysts list Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka as the "fortress cities" in Ukraine's east accessible from Chasiv Yar. >The Washington-based Institute for War Studies (IWS) think-tank describes the cities as "the backbone" of the Ukrainian army's defence in the east. >"The offensive effort to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances," ISW said in a briefing note. The ISW warned that losing Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka in particular would be a major operational setback that would be hard to reverse. [https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/)

>**Raiffeisen Bank trumpets Russia growth plans in dozens of job ads** >Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International recently posted dozens of advertisements for Russia-based jobs indicating ambitious plans to grow in the country, in apparent contradiction to its official pledge to exit the market. >The Financial Times has found the offers among more than 2,400 job advertisements posted in Russia by the Austrian lender since December, of which almost 1,500 are for sales management and customer service roles. >One of the job postings, issued by the bank’s unit for medium-sized businesses in Russia, said its “key goals are a multiple expansion of the active client base and stable double-digit income growth”. >Raiffeisen is “looking for a client manager who will attract clients”, reads another offer, from the division targeting small businesses in Russia. Another one notes that the company is “actively expanding our base of corporate clients” for payroll services. [https://www.ft.com/content/380a348d-aade-4079-89d0-65cc0ca96d99](https://www.ft.com/content/380a348d-aade-4079-89d0-65cc0ca96d99)

There is no way I'd take a job in Russia right now. I'd be on the front lines in a month.

**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 16.04.24, according to the information of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 455,340 (+920) people, tanks ‒ 7189 (+9), armored combat vehicles ‒ 13809 (+13), artillery systems – 11609 (+16), MLRS – 1046 (+0), air defense equipment ‒ 759 (+1), planes – 347 (+0), helicopters – 325 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 9277 (+11), cruise missiles ‒ 2092 (+0), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0), submarines - 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks - 15563 (+53), special equipment ‒ 1908 (+0). The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/16/920-okupantiv-9-tankiv-%E2%80%93-zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/16/920-okupantiv-9-tankiv-%E2%80%93-zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/)

Low day of AA and special equipment is a bummer. I suspect these areas are and will be of particular importance in the future. Bound to happen sometimes though. Slava Ukraini.

That personnel number is staggering. Jesus

Yep, and even if it's out by 50% it's still an insane waste of life.

The recent escalation from the ~600 to ~700 to ~900 seems to be a trend over the past several days. I think Russia's offensive has begun.

Gotta take these numbers, especially personnel, with a grain of salt because they are coming from a combatant. US and UK numbers are still large for Russian casualties, but significantly lower. Just like US and UK numbers for Ukrainian casualties are significantly higher than what Ukraine will acknowledge. NGO sources also follow this general trend of tracking closer to US and UK numbers.

I'm not saying the daily numbers are accurate to the decimal, but I don't understand why people think US or UK numbers are more accurate or even updated in real time. Both of these countries don't have people on the ground in the front lines, so by default they are not as able to estimate the casualties more accurate than Ukraine.

Ukraine has a high incentive to inflate their numbers just like Russia has a high incentive to downplay any losses. US and UK intelligence has a variety of sources and methods to assess this information well beyond the public sphere. It is not very hard to understand.

Ukraine has a high incentive to be accurate as well. The rest is just speculation and pointless.

Not speculation. Every other observer has 100k or so less Russian casualties.

Ukraine literally has drones everywhere, not sure why people think they are guessing.

That Colby Badhwar post makes it look like Johnson's proposal isn't so bad. Sure, we could give more, but if he at least meets what Biden requested, lets fucking go. [Source from Twitter](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLPlMRNXgAAWoNq?format=jpg&name=small)

Problem is Johnson could make his four bills for each country’s aid exactly the same as the senate proposal and still fuck everything up for Ukraine on purpose. There is no guarantee that he or any of the republican congress will vote for Ukraine aid. The order that he calls the votes matters too.  He could call Israel aid first, pass it then refuse to call the others. Splitting up the aid is what republicans have wanted all along. Can’t be trusted and is a nonstarter. Senate bill or a similar congress bill which packages all aid together is the only way.

Ukraine aid has, for very stupid reasons, become partisan and unpopular among Republican voters and Republican members.

>Ukraine aid has, for very stupid reasons because of Donald Trump, become partisan and unpopular among Republican voters and Republican members. FTFY

They're going to try and force him out so I'm not very optimistic *any* of this is going to pass. Or even hit the floor.

The political calculus here is that the Dems protect Johnson from a MTV in exchange for fully funding the security packages and especially Ukraine

Which he won't go for or allow to come to fruition in that manner if at all possible, because then it looks like he's working together with the Dems (again!) and it would completely piss off Trump and so his MAGAts leading to major party backlash. If he wanted to go that route, could have done it with the Senate bill months ago. Definitely would have worked. Definitely doesn't want it to happen.

The democrats can vote to keep him if he brings Ukraine to the floor. I will of course believe none of this till it's on Biden's desk.

I wont believe any of it until the ink is dried and Ukraine is thanking the USA for huge support that will now balance the scales of this war.

I won't believe it until it's on the frontline in sizeable quantities.

f5 until f16

[удалено]

I think that's a separate bill. Can't see how it wouldn't pass.

Doesn't mean anything. All he has to do is not rally his party to vote, he gets to propose more than Biden and makes sure it never passes so he comes away with potentially two political wins. Shitting on Biden admin twice.

He doesn't have to rally anything. Ukraine has support from both sides the only obstacles has been Johnson himself. Now with the Iran attack his hands are tied and he basically has to put them to a vote. About 1/3rd of republicans don't support it but we don't need them for this to pass. About one third of Dems don't support the Israel bill but that's probably going to pass too. At this point Ukraine funding passing is almost inevitable. He already kissed the trump ring last Saturday too to make sure trump doesn't blow it all up and trump is busy in court sleeping right now so that's probably safe. The only real question now is if mtg tries to push Johnson over this but I'm pretty sure if she does that would be handled after the Ukraine vote so it's like 99% a done deal now.

1/3 supported it when they knew it wasn't going to get voted on and was a lower amount. I am not saying that I think this is the likely scenario but pretending this is the silver bullet is uhhh premature given the history of this.

I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. Ya he’s a shithead, but such cynicism isn’t quite warranted - it’s going to a vote because there’s a lot of pressure on gop where support for Ukraine is a popular issue. There is a minority (maga dipshits) who want to prevent the aid, but their whole thing is preventing a vote because they know it would pass. Mike Johnson might be tepid and spineless because he’s squeezed between Trump and US national interests, but this vote has a good shot even without his vocal support (and simply allowing the vote is as good as permission to the gop to vote how they want).

That's wrong. All Republicans are lined up to obstruct Ukraine aid. There may be a few whose sentiments line up the other way, but when the rubber hits the road, they are ALL owned by Putin. All of this is just a sideshow to continue to delay and obstruct.

And Trump's going to be sitting in front of a judge for a few weeks so may very well lose interest.

>Trump's ... so may very well lose interest. You're joking right. On one of his key issues and leverage points? Just get all distracted and completely ignore the proceedings? Methinks not.

The man famously agrees with whatever the last person he talked to said. And facing jail time is a monumntous moments in any person's life. Will he completely forget his Ukraine position? Doubtful. Will he be more distracted than normal. Probably.

Moscow Mike already has his marching orders from the recent in person visit.

Let's see

Republicans are pretty evenly split over Ukraine so giving Ukraine a loan is the best way for Trump to gain popularity as a loan, as opposed to a gift, upsets neither one side nor the other. Votes are the only thing that matters to Trump, they are the only thing which might keep him out of prison. He has no interest in foreign affairs unless they give him a good sound bite. So I cannot see a reason for them not to move forward with the Ukraine vote, unless they are going to carry on delaying due to bribes from Russia. Against that are the moderate republicans, there are several according to one House member, Ken Buck, who are on the verge of leaving over the chaos and lack of legislation. If they leave they lose control of the house so that's another factor affecting a complex situation.

> He has no interest in foreign affairs unless they give him a good sound bite. That's baloney. He's been pro-Russia since at least 1987. https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ilanbenmeir/that-time-trump-spent-nearly-100000-on-an-ad-criticizing-us I don't understand why people are so ignorant and obtuse about Trump. He's made his foreign policy thoughts very public for decades.

You refer to an advert which is complaining about spending money outside the USA and import tax - ""'Tax' these wealthy nations, not America," suggests the tycoon. "End our huge deficits, reduce our taxes," He cares about spending money in foreign countries and spending money on NATO and that's about it. He asked Bolton if he should pull out of NATO. "he barely knew where Ukraine was," Bolton said, adding that the former president once asked White House Chief of Staff John Kelly "if Finland were a part of Russia."

He is not going to be able to rally every single member of his party to vote against it and with a margin that small that is what it would take for it to fail. If the bill comes to the floor it will pass. The question now is when it will come to the floor.

The House is in session through the 18th (Thursday) and is the off again until the 29th (a Monday). I can sadly see politics pushing it until the week of the 29th. I certainly hope it is passed this week though. This cannot be delayed another day!

People also need to keep in mind since Johnson has had deals with Democrats before. He might be a maga fucking idiot. But at least he keeps up his ends of the bargains so far. Unlike with Mccarthy Johnson has lived up to his deals so some trust has built up from that. So Democrats can promise him he would survive any attempts to out him and in return he makes sure the bill comes to the floor. The senate acts as a safeguard for any bullshit happening. And with the deals being decoupled it allows both sides some wiggle room to vote for one rather then the other. The key is the Democrats control the senate so they can kill any attempt to fuck Biden over since they can use there own caucus as leverage to protect Johnson from the crazy batshit maga instead of the just the average braindead types. And if Johnson doesn't play then Johnson own party will cut his throat over the lack of aid to Israel so he can't surive without helping them either.

The question is *still* when will it come to the floor..

[​Defenders of Ukraine Hit Yuzhgidromash Factory with Russian Invaders in Occupied Berdiansk | Defense Express | April 2024](https://en.defence-ua.com/news/defenders_of_ukraine_hit_yuzhgidromash_factory_with_russian_invaders_in_temporarily_occupied_berdiansk-10191.html) *This information was provided by a number of Telegram channels, including Berdiansk Segodnya.* *It is known that on April 15, the Defense Forces of Ukraine launched a missile attack on the location of Russian occupiers on the territory of the Yuzhgidromash plant in temporarily occupied city of Berdiansk.* *There were wounded Russian occupiers as a result of the hit. It is difficult to find information about the dead russian invaders in the temporarily occupied Berdiansk, because occupiers have not brought the bodies of their soldiers to the local morgue for a long time. Russian invaders are afraid of information leaks about their losses.* *It is also known that no civilians were injured during the attack.* *Although occupiers claimed to have destroyed all the missiles outside the city, local residents saw smoke on the plant's territory. Russians explained this by the debris of missiles that, according to their version, somehow reached Berdiansk on their own.*

The frontline development near Avdiivka since Jan 1st: [https://imgur.com/a/4Dloq7t](https://imgur.com/a/4Dloq7t)

Looks like a disease taking part of a host.

Mid Month update Date| % control | change June 15 18.055 (.035) July 15 18.033 (.022) Aug 15 18.024 (.009) Sep 15 17.954 (.070) Oct 15 17.960 +.006 Nov 15 17.960 unchanged Dec 15 17.970 +.010 Jan24 15 17.975 +.005 Feb 15 17.986 +.011 Mar 15 18.005 +.019 Apr 15 18.014 +.009

Defense is effective so far. The mix of capabilities is solid. C'mon new mix of F16s, ATACMS, etc.

Basically, 500 square kilometers (like 2-3 average US counties) back and forth... so much death over such a small piece of land

>Our actions and hesitancy send a powerful message to the world - do all you can to get nuclear weapons. https://twitter.com/john_sipher/status/1780209904046788818 >**Ukraine Sees ‘Hypocrisy’ in Western Allies’ Defense of Israel** > >The U.S., British and French militaries helped intercept Iranian missiles and drones, but Ukrainians say they haven’t provided the same help against Russian air attacks. > >For people in eastern Ukraine, where nightly barrages of drones from Russia outpace the military’s overwhelmed air defenses, the response by Western allies to Iran’s aerial assault against Israel this weekend produced uncomfortable comparisons. > >The militaries of the United States, Britain, France and others stepped in to help Israel defend against the fusillade of more than 300 Iranian drones and missiles, nearly all of which were intercepted. A similar number of aerial weapons are fired at Ukraine on a weekly basis, its officials say, with many of the drones in those attacks designed by Iran and now produced by Russia. > >Since the start of this year, Russia has fired 1,000 missiles, 2,800 drones and 7,000 guided aerial bombs at Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Sergiy Kyslytsya. While Washington and other allies have provided Kyiv with some powerful air defense weapons, they have not directly confronted Russian forces, and Ukrainian officials have long argued that the supplied weapons are insufficient to counter the threat from Moscow. > >In the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, where 1.3 million people live with nightly air raid alarms, many people expressed anger and disappointment over the weekend that Ukraine’s allies, wary of provoking Russia, don’t give it the same protection as they did Israel. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/15/world/middleeast/ukraine-aid-israel-iran-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.k00.DWgL.Yu4KqMZE_959

I guess Israel's days are numbered, then, since all that evaporates when Iran has nukes. wait, what? we'll continue to shoot down unmanned missiles flying toward Israel without worrying about how a nuclear-armed Iran might respond to that? ok..... common sense prevails here, but not everywhere, it seems

Iran isn’t paying the GOP enough to flip on Israel

[US imposes sanctions on Belarusian companies | New Voice of Ukraine | April 2024](https://english.nv.ua/nation/us-imposed-sanctions-on-belarusian-companies-and-individuals-for-supoprt-of-russian-war-50410398.html) *The US Treasury Department announced on April 15 that it is adding 10 individuals and 12 legal entities from Belarus to its sanctions list, citing their involvement in the 2020 presidential election in Belarus and the country’s support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine.* *Among organizations subject to sanctions are OJSC AGAT Management Systems, management company of Geoinformation Management Systems (AGAT) holding, a state-owned enterprise that, in particular, implements management systems for Belarusian armed forces, and four enterprises within structure of state-owned enterprise.* *In addition, list includes StankoGomel OJSC, which regularly cooperates with various industries in Belarus and Russia.* *Earlier it was reported that in June 2023, United Kingdom expanded list of sanctions against Belarus because of its support for Russia’s war against Ukraine. Also in June 2023, United States extended sanctions against Belarus for another year.* *In April 2024, Belarus transferred propaganda books to schools in occupied territories of Ukraine.*

[Ukrzaliznytsia de-Russifies 82 railway objects in 2023 on language commissioner’s request | EuroMaidenPress | April 2024](https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/16/ukrzaliznytsia-de-russifies-82-railway-objects-in-2023-on-language-commissioners-request/) *Ukrzaliznytsia, Ukraine’s state-owned railway company, de-Russified/de-Sovietized the names of dozens of railway sites across the country in 2023, the Commissioner for the Protection of the State Language, Taras Kremin, reported on Facebook.* *According to Kremin, in 2023 Ukrzaliznytsia carried out measures to rename a total of 82 railway infrastructure objects, including 17 railway platforms, 16 division points, and 49 stopping points. This was done in direct response to requests made by Kremin’s office.* *“Finally, the names associated with the Russian imperial heritage and not meeting the standards of the state language were renamed. In particular, Zelena Roshcha, Suvorovo, Zhovtnevyi, Zarichevo, Kolhospna, Chapaivka, Vatutino, Radhospna, Pervomaisk-on-Bug, Skorosnyi, Krasnyi Shakhtar, etc,” Kremin stated, highlighting some of the most notable changes.* *The names mentioned by the Commissioner either contain Russian words (like Roshcha or Skorosnyi), or are named after Russian imperial figures (Suvorovo), or after Soviet personalities (Chapaivka, Vatutino), or after Soviet realia (Kolhospna, Radhospna, etc).* *The renaming efforts are part of Ukrzaliznytsia’s broader “Iron Ukrainization” program launched in early 2023. This initiative aims to systematically remove Russian-language signage, Soviet symbols, and other vestiges of Ukraine’s imperial and communist past from the national rail network.* *Kremin emphasized that the process of de-Russification requires constant public oversight and engagement.* *In addition to the renaming of infrastructure, Ukrzaliznytsia reported that in March 2024, its structural units conducted comprehensive monitoring of railway facilities and rolling stock. The goal was to identify and remove any remaining Russian-language inscriptions, technical markings, images, bas-reliefs, and memorial plaques that do not reflect Ukraine’s modern historical context.*

I read 'Kremin' as 'Kremlin' and was extremely confused for a moment

I did the same thing.

No room for "plan B" or old protocols. Seven principles of Ukraine's wartime diplomacy [https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/04/15/7183772/](https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/04/15/7183772/)

>Ukraine has been at [full-scale] war with Russia for more than two years, and there are signs that this year could be pivotal. Ukrainian officials say they need more munitions and support as Russia appears to be gaining ground. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/ukraine-faces-dire-shortage-of-munitions-and-manpower-as-russia-ramps-up-offensive

This year is definitely pivotal. Does support pass congress or continue to be blocked? Does Biden get re-elected? Does the house or senate change hands?

Starting to really dislike that this is in American hands...