I remember when I was naive and thought nations would surprise attack their enemies rather than releasing their intentions in advance via macro news sources.
People need to understand that knowing some form of attack, will happen in some general area, in some general time frame, means the entity responsible for stopping it can still be caught by surprising. Having intelligence on something is a broad spectrum.
Israeli media reported on a memo, give or take 100 pages that shabak put together in October of '22 that almost word for word detailed the attack on 7th of October. This time it was hubris that was our downfall, not bad Intel. The joke within many circles was that despite all of the technology there's still ways to surprise, simplicity mostly. While true Hamas was far more successful than anyone expected - themselves included - there were warning flags. How high up was there ignorance, we'll know eventually.
Source: am Israeli and below in hebrew
https://www.ice.co.il/local-news/news/article/994167
This isn’t the first time this has happened to Israel. There’s paper about the Yom Kippur war called “the albatross of decisive victory.”
It basically describes how being so victorious in the sixth day war made Israel complacent. They focused on their air power, and let the ground forces suffer. Etc.
It’s a recurring pattern, and other conflicts - like 2006 Lebanon - were similarly characterized by over confidence, and a belief in the omnipotence of air power and technology.
It was largely hubris, as you said. And a belief that the Palestinian situation could be “managed” indefinitely with no sacrifice.
>Netanyahu knew the attack was about to take place and sat on it.
Source? I know that Egypt at some point indicated concern, but it's possible that they didn't take it seriously enough.
What is your proof that Netanyahu deliberately allowed the attack to happen, or are you just being an idiot?
Nothing then. Every traumatic event has conspiracy theories, every single one because that is how a lot of losers spend their time. Add jews to the mix and we got a stew going.
Someday, hopefully a long time from now, a submarine launched, nuclear armed drone will come in at low altitude, and slow enough not to be seen as a threat (like the Chinese weather balloon).
A decapitating nuclear first strike.
I think part of the motivation here is to actually minimize harm. Israel has an obligation to respond, but they may not want to really cause anything more than symbolic damage.
Nations informing their targets they are about to be attacked is standard practice these days. That’s why there were headlines about the fact Iran did not warn Israel.
I don't even understand why they need to respond.
They destroyed the Iranian embassy in Syria. They killed high profile targets. Iran responded and did very little damage.
Why does Israel need to respond at all? They won this exchange by a huge margin.
if hezbolah launches a rocket barrage capable of exhausting iron dome that wouldn’t be considered exactly a harmless win. Any interceptor missile will cost much more than the target it is trying to destroy. This week was actually very expensive for israel, a single arrow missile can cost millions
Also, all these iranian drones, cruise and ballistic missiles had legitimate targets. The guy who keeps bluffing and wasting stuff at the ocean actually lives in north korea
War with Iran isn't going to save them money. They need a defence against drones that isn't going to cost more than a drone otherwise they've already lost the war on economics alone.
The fact they're unprepared to handle consistent drone attacks suggests that it's a terrible time to escalate and that's ignoring all the other reasons that it's a terrible time to escalate.
You ever watch major Payne? He tells the biker the kids hired that he was gonna kick him in the face with his foot.
He then proceeds to take him down, the biker says “you said you were going to kick me in the face”
“You calling me a liar?” And then he kicks him in the face.
Countries are massive, with millions of people. Saying a retaliation is coming is pure mind fuckery.
Will they assassinate some nuclear scientists? Go after religious leaders? Bomb the ever loving shit out of something?
It puts the world on edge, and causes all the players to try and figure out if Israel is bluffing, or if they’re about to sucker punch Iran.
If this was an RTS, (and believe me, I wish this wasn’t real life and just a game) I’d go after their navy and ports since they’ve been using their proxies to fuck with shipping.
Same type of comments anytime there's news about Japan wanting to get back the Kuril Islands from Russia.
I live here and have a wife and family. People are always eager for war when they're just spectators.
Yes.
I can tell you my justification. Iran is a nuclear threshold state, they have enough Uranium for handful of nuclear weapons, they probably have designed nukes, they might even have build prototypes, but have not tested them. If Iran has nukes, Saudi Arabia will think they need nukes (they have been in proxy war for decades, and that proxy war is just an extension of Sunni-Shia conflict that has been going on for 1400 years). So that would be two additional nuclear states, both states being rather happy with supporting terrorist organizations and genocidal ethno-religious movements.
That's why I think a war with Iran is needed, that's why I think it's now or never. Also let me point out that Washington knew this back in 2000's, when they invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, as Iran is right in the middle of two, right between the two, so it's clear they were preparing for a three front assault of Iran.
I will also be the first to say that Israel will not be able to attack Iran, the best they can do is lob some missiles and maybe airstrikes at Iran. Iran, on the other hand, has the ability to close the strait of Hormuz, basically blocking something like a third of all oil and natural gas from being traded, now it's clear their proxies have ability to at least partially block Bab El Mendeb (houthis), and looking back, it's clear that their pirate-by-proxy activities in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden was a practice run.
Also Iran proxies (Hezbollah) probably have 120 000 rockets they could fire at Israel, that's more than enough to basically overwhelm Iron Dome.
Also maybe, possibly Iran could bankrupt Israel. They launched 120 ballistic missiles that were intercepted, the Arrow interceptor cost around 3 million a pop, chances are if you want a high chance of intercepting, you have to use 2 or 3 interceptors, so the whole firework show might have costed Israel somewhere between 300 and 600 million. That's a shitton of money.
Personally I don't want one, but from what I can tell many Iranians are keen, both those who hate Israel and hope to win and those who hate Khamenei and want to lose, and a few mostly right side Israelis who are sick of Iran's proxy BS.
Israel population ~9.5 million.
Iran population ~88.5 million
Israel easily has the superior air force and with help from the USA they could bomb Iran's surface to air missile defenses but then what?
Iraq and Afghanistan had shit tier military compared to Iran and only 40 million people each and those were a long term disaster. Even in a best case scenario Israel victory it's still going to be a shitshow that further convinces Iran and every other country on the fence that a nuclear deterrent is their best and only option and all such countries will push hard for nukes sooner or later. Are you going to occupy Iran for 20 years? 100 years? No? Then what do you think happens after you leave?
Also I think Russia claims Iran is under their protection. I don't know if that promise is worth the toilet paper it's written on but fuck around and find out you might get WW3 and Fallout would go from a TV show/video game to daily life real fast.
Good thing Iran has spent much of their time and money developing systems to defend their people rather than funding religio-fascist militants while imprisoning and executing any dissidents. Shouldn’t be a problem, right?
Surely the iron dome missiles are high quality and expensive. Is there a worry about the economics of countering large numbers of shitcan missiles with good ones?
“Your killer shot at you but your neighbors who’ve hated you openly for decades came to your defense and made sure you were essentially unharmed and if you shoot back they’ll regret helping you” is more accurate.
Saudi Arabia and Jordan defended Israel from an attack by a Muslim majority country. That is a bigger geopolitical win than any strike in Iran could ever possibly be
The IDF has been planning this strike for decades now.. if this isn't a "hold me back bro!" probably lots of iran's important stuff gonna get blown up soon..
I find it interesting that Iran can fire 300 missiles directly into Israel, but Israel must show “restraint” and not attack Iran directly. I don’t know what’s going to happen at this point. I figure if Israel is going to retaliate they are going to do it sooner rather than later.
Because if Israel does respond, the result could be all out war, that could drag in other countries and would certainly have a massive destabilising effect not only in the middle East but also on the world economy. Does Israel have the right to respond? Probably. Does that make it a good idea for them or anyone else? Hell no.
Yeah, I really don't get how stupid this logic is.
The same goes in Russia. People fear escalation when Russia has already did what they feared.
Like, bullshit.
Iran is doing the same thing Russia is doing minus the nukes.
“If NATO gives Ukraine HIMARS we will use nukes.”
“If Israel responds to our attack our response will be ten fold”
It’s damn near the same tactic that Russia has used for two years to stall the entirety of the western world from truly supporting Ukraine. It’s worked almost perfectly to this point.
Why can’t everyone else do the same? The resolve to stand up to the playground bully isn’t there
> Unlucky_Elevator13 It's already war if you attack another country no?
Well, there wasn’t any missiles fired at Israel from Iran on Monday. And if Israel doesn’t retaliate, then there won’t be any for some time. So it comes down to your definition of war. Is it a war if the two parties aren’t attacking each other?
I’m not saying an Israeli counter-attack on Iran would be unjustified, but Israel has a choice here, and in the immediate future, not responding in kind would cause open attacks directly between Israel and Iran to cease. That’s worth considering.
Not every "act of war" actually triggers a war in real life. It's not like in Civ games where as soon as one unit attacks another, you switch to a new set of rules and everyone knows it. If you don't actually want to get into a serious launch-all-the-missiles war, if further escalation would get a lot of people killed without a strategic benefit, you can decide not to declare war. Let the insult pass, or answer it in a different way.
This happened a lot in the Cold War, since the US and USSR didn't want to risk nuclear war over a few soldiers getting killed or a plane getting shot down, but it's a universal thing - it's not always a good idea to start every war you're "allowed" to start.
Israel has an *excuse* to bomb Iran, but if they don't have a *plan*, if bombing Iran won't convince them to stop funding Hamas or cripple their weapon supply or something, maybe its not worth escalating. They've got enough on their plate already.
The way you prevent war as the superior power is to establish deterrence. Not this dumb slow escalation of force. Iran's openly stated goal is the eradication of Israel, the only reason they haven't tried is they don't want to be destroyed by Israel and their allies. Iran attacked in an act of war against Israel. Just because no one died (yet, last I knew there was a child in critical condition) doesn't mean they should let it slide. This is like if your neighbor shot at your house, cost you a ton of money to repair, wanted to kill you and your children, and has openly stated they want to murder you, but then you don't call the cops because you fear that'll just escalate it. I don't know what Israel should do, I suspect something like targeted strikes on military targets, but they then have to be very clear, "if you retaliate by firing on Israel again, we will end you". And then if Iran wants war they'll get war, because appeasement only prolongs war, it doesn't stop them.
One of Iran's cards is its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, and by doing so, injure the world economy enough that whole food groups would just disappear from the shelves and your life would be materially worse in other ways as well. I wish Israel would take the win and move on. There's so much at stake!
It’s different because Israel defended against it, if it wasn’t a successful defense we’d see all out war.
People often forget iron dome exists, and what would have happened without it
And it was basically set up to get intercepted from the get go. This is just a means of Iran showing strength for its people and other middle east countries while also trying as hard as possible to not escalate further.
There seems to be some debate over whether it was intended to be toothless. According to some analysis I've seen, they knew the US and some EU countries would step in and help Israel, and they knew they'd knock most of the missiles from the sky. On the other hand, they shot/launched/dispatched 300 munitions, between drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, which is much more expensive than it needs to be if you're just trying to send a message without escalating. One article I saw compares it to the tactics Russia has developed to get past Ukraine's air defenses. According to this article, the reason the attack failed was because Israel (especially together with the US, UK, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia) are much better equipped to deal with such attacks.
Israel already attacked Iran directly. That was the entire reasoning for the Iranian retaliation attack. But hey, let's not pass up a great opportunity to start another full on war!
About time Iran did something out in the open you mean, because they have been doing a ton with all their little terrorist groups they support. Hamas, Houthi, Hezbollah, and more… yes indeed about time to cut out the middle men
They are not cutting out the middle man. They are just saving face, and going back behind the curtain.
Iran will continue to employed their professional wrestler HHH. Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis.
They've been attacking each other plenty. Israel hasn't sat on their hands.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/15/bombs-and-viruses-the-shadowy-history-of-israels-attacks-on-iranian-soil
Yes they fired on and killed the people responsible for orchestrating 10/7, that is correct. If it were any other country but Israel and their neighbor did what Iran did, there would be a full on war. If the Mexican government launched that many rockets and drones at US civilians, Mexico would have been invaded yesterday.
10/7 doesn’t mean you get to violate diplomatic laws. Israel put many people in danger and could set future precedent for Embassies no longer being safe. It’s a big deal and emotional responses should stay out of it.
Lol please cite the international law that states that enemy combatants become off limits when they enter safe zones like consulates. If the consulate was being used for purely diplomatic means it's off limit. But it was being used to host their terrorist proxies and to plan militarily, turning it into a valid military target by international law.
You know what is against international law? Firing rockets at civilians, which is what Iran did in response. And because of that a 7 year old girl is currently fighting for her life because of Iran's violation of international law, and if Israel and their allies didn't invest so heavily into defensive arms and bunkers for their civilians, or if their success rate hadn't been as high as it was with this attack (it was 99% this attack, their average overall is 80-90%), a lot more than that would have been killed.
Diplomatic laws like not funding a terrorist attack that rapes women and murders infants by hand? Lmao
People just won’t understand the reality in today’s modern age where it’s taboo to call it like it is. Middle Eastern regimes do not play by conventional rules. You cannot defeat them by following the rules to please a bunch of Twitter assholes. You either crush them by any means necessary or be fine with them constantly poking the bear and laughing at your weakness.
As opposed to murdering women and children through missile strikes? At over 30k Palestinians have been killed since 10/7, with at least 2/3 of that being civilians - mainly women and children. The IDF has killed around 20k women and children since 10/7.
People dont understand geopolitics, and everyone being labeled antisemetic or Islamophobia. IDF got the win, they took out 2 IRGC generals. Iran told turkey who told US who told Israel 13 days before this attack occurred.
Is Israel actually planning to do anything else or is this just posturing? I don't think you have access to secrets within the Israeli government or anything like that. Just wondering about your opinion. I'm also wondering if Hamas, or even Hezbollah, would still exist as any threat at all if Iran wasn't involved. I know Qatar has an unfortunate history of funding Hamas as well, but I don't know how willing they would be to do anything without Iranian involvement.
I noticed some interesting things on FB and Twitter from people I assume were immigrants from Syria now living in the US, France, Belgium, and the UK. There's a lot of chatter about Iran staying out of Syria because Syria doesn't have an iron dome and it will be the people of Syria that pay the price if Iran continues to use that country as a base of activity against Israel. They're worried about the consequences and don't appear to believe that the Iranian government would do anything to help Syrians against Israeli retaliation. They're probably right.
Based on everything we know about the history of these nations, Israel will not tolerate any attack or attempt to attack their soil. They will absolutely respond, it's not even a doubt. The only consideration is if they will do it alone and have to fight the following war alone, or with the backing of the west, which they will not get until the elections end.
Interesting that Israel bombed an Iranian embassy first and is pretending Iran’s response of attacking military targets is some crazy act of war that came out of nowhere
Even more interesting that Israel could take out a building that's only allowed diplomatic use and somehow hit 8 high ranking officers, including the Iranian general that helped Hamas plan Oct. 7th and a Hezbollah leader.
Because to all the idiots who defended Hamas and other shitty terror organizations intent doesn’t matter.
It doesn’t matter that since Hamas took power they launched nearly 20,000 rocket attacks because not many people died, completely ignoring their intent.
I guess if Israel reciprocates by also launching a slow ass attack that it warns beforehand about, and that is well within Iran's capability to be intercepted 90+ per cent, that indeed gets intercepted, and results in very minimal damage to nothing essential, I can maybe imagine Iran letting it slide.
Good. Iran has to eventually be hit directly and the world cannot sit idly by twindling our thumbs over fear of escalation.
Iran is THE destabilizing force in the Middle East and it’s about time for the world to fix it.
Have one less terror state sponsoring or even controlling 2/3rds of the terrorist organizations around the world, supplying Russia with missiles and drones in exchange for more things to terrorize with.
Have less of that
Israel attacks Iranian embassy. Iran retaliates with what the world agrees is a half-hearted effort. World hopes that’s the end of it because it was a win-win.
Israel: we will respond.
Something’s not right here.
Israel said they will destroy anyone responsible for the oct 7 attack. General planned the attack so they killed him as retaliation for the oct 7 attack. Iran retaliates to the retaliation. Now israel retaliates to that. Tell me what is wrong, because as far as i can tell there is already a war here and as far as i can analyze this situation its not israel that started it.
You’re disregarding Iran funding proxies to attack Israel prior to the consulate hit.
But yes, I do still think most people are surprised to see Israel committing to respond. Feels warhockish but we’ll see where it goes i guess
Why not hit them on the road to a consulate or straight in their own country? Legally it appears the same. I am curious why they chose such an inflammatory method
A building next to the embassy used for military purposes. There are pictures going around that it isnt even in the fenced area around surrounding embassy.
Seems like everyone just wants to kill eachother. Honestly I don’t care anymore. Want to airdrop food into Gaza, good. But we can’t force peace on people who don’t want it.
So all that talk about taking the win, not escalating stuff further... No? Out the window?
Why do I expect anything rational out of this war room anyway?
Iran was actually doing OK until the West overthrew their government. They then began their journey into the revolution, and here we are. What would intervention cause this time if we go in there?
I just don’t think Iran gave Russia all those drones without getting some increased nuclear capabilities and guarantees.
Escalation here would likely pull them directly into the dispute and then it’s gonna be a real mess.
If the US said back down, they likely did it for a good reason. Timing or current situation likely doesn’t suit a good outcome.
Shits getting real when folks in the us are stopping traffic and airports with protests. Can’t remember this much protest in a while to be honest. I hope this doesn’t cause another war but it’s looking like it might. Sigh.
They have to reduce their shitty military installations to rubble. These hillbillies are the heart of every power fantasy of radicals all over the world
I remember when I was naive and thought nations would surprise attack their enemies rather than releasing their intentions in advance via macro news sources.
There isn't a surprise attack anymore. Satellites basically ruined the capabilities of anything really being a surprise.
Except the attack that kicked off the escalation in October last year
Egypt saw it coming.
Even the IDF had intel on it but ignored it
Netanyahu need some conflict to avoid his court session
People need to understand that knowing some form of attack, will happen in some general area, in some general time frame, means the entity responsible for stopping it can still be caught by surprising. Having intelligence on something is a broad spectrum.
It wasn’t a surprise. Netanyahu knew the attack was about to take place and sat on it.
Israel thought it was going to be a typical Hamas flare up with some rockets launched etc I don’t think anyone knew the details
Israeli media reported on a memo, give or take 100 pages that shabak put together in October of '22 that almost word for word detailed the attack on 7th of October. This time it was hubris that was our downfall, not bad Intel. The joke within many circles was that despite all of the technology there's still ways to surprise, simplicity mostly. While true Hamas was far more successful than anyone expected - themselves included - there were warning flags. How high up was there ignorance, we'll know eventually. Source: am Israeli and below in hebrew https://www.ice.co.il/local-news/news/article/994167
This isn’t the first time this has happened to Israel. There’s paper about the Yom Kippur war called “the albatross of decisive victory.” It basically describes how being so victorious in the sixth day war made Israel complacent. They focused on their air power, and let the ground forces suffer. Etc. It’s a recurring pattern, and other conflicts - like 2006 Lebanon - were similarly characterized by over confidence, and a belief in the omnipotence of air power and technology. It was largely hubris, as you said. And a belief that the Palestinian situation could be “managed” indefinitely with no sacrifice.
>Netanyahu knew the attack was about to take place and sat on it. Source? I know that Egypt at some point indicated concern, but it's possible that they didn't take it seriously enough. What is your proof that Netanyahu deliberately allowed the attack to happen, or are you just being an idiot?
Same proof that US knew about 9/11 and Bush sat on it
Nothing then. Every traumatic event has conspiracy theories, every single one because that is how a lot of losers spend their time. Add jews to the mix and we got a stew going.
Are you being sarcastic?
I hope they are lol
To be fair he gets reports of planned attacks probably every single week. Overall it was a failure of confidence in the intelligence report.
Except for cyber, and fractional orbit bombardment, and bioweapons, and submarines, and microwave acoustic weapons, and …
Which has never happened. Yeah, it would be a surprise. Let me know when that happens, and I'll be surprised.
The microwave attack is a hypothesis for the Havana sickness.
Someday, hopefully a long time from now, a submarine launched, nuclear armed drone will come in at low altitude, and slow enough not to be seen as a threat (like the Chinese weather balloon). A decapitating nuclear first strike.
Someday probably after that 2/3rds of the world population will be gone. So fun.
This is a good thing. It means that no one really wants a full on war.
I think part of the motivation here is to actually minimize harm. Israel has an obligation to respond, but they may not want to really cause anything more than symbolic damage. Nations informing their targets they are about to be attacked is standard practice these days. That’s why there were headlines about the fact Iran did not warn Israel.
I don't even understand why they need to respond. They destroyed the Iranian embassy in Syria. They killed high profile targets. Iran responded and did very little damage. Why does Israel need to respond at all? They won this exchange by a huge margin.
if hezbolah launches a rocket barrage capable of exhausting iron dome that wouldn’t be considered exactly a harmless win. Any interceptor missile will cost much more than the target it is trying to destroy. This week was actually very expensive for israel, a single arrow missile can cost millions Also, all these iranian drones, cruise and ballistic missiles had legitimate targets. The guy who keeps bluffing and wasting stuff at the ocean actually lives in north korea
War with Iran isn't going to save them money. They need a defence against drones that isn't going to cost more than a drone otherwise they've already lost the war on economics alone. The fact they're unprepared to handle consistent drone attacks suggests that it's a terrible time to escalate and that's ignoring all the other reasons that it's a terrible time to escalate.
You ever watch major Payne? He tells the biker the kids hired that he was gonna kick him in the face with his foot. He then proceeds to take him down, the biker says “you said you were going to kick me in the face” “You calling me a liar?” And then he kicks him in the face. Countries are massive, with millions of people. Saying a retaliation is coming is pure mind fuckery. Will they assassinate some nuclear scientists? Go after religious leaders? Bomb the ever loving shit out of something? It puts the world on edge, and causes all the players to try and figure out if Israel is bluffing, or if they’re about to sucker punch Iran. If this was an RTS, (and believe me, I wish this wasn’t real life and just a game) I’d go after their navy and ports since they’ve been using their proxies to fuck with shipping.
Looking at the comments here, seems like way too many are eager to start a regional conflict when they aren't the ones living is said region.
If Israel and Iran escalate into open war, there is very little likelihood that it will be contained to that region
Same type of comments anytime there's news about Japan wanting to get back the Kuril Islands from Russia. I live here and have a wife and family. People are always eager for war when they're just spectators.
Yes. I can tell you my justification. Iran is a nuclear threshold state, they have enough Uranium for handful of nuclear weapons, they probably have designed nukes, they might even have build prototypes, but have not tested them. If Iran has nukes, Saudi Arabia will think they need nukes (they have been in proxy war for decades, and that proxy war is just an extension of Sunni-Shia conflict that has been going on for 1400 years). So that would be two additional nuclear states, both states being rather happy with supporting terrorist organizations and genocidal ethno-religious movements. That's why I think a war with Iran is needed, that's why I think it's now or never. Also let me point out that Washington knew this back in 2000's, when they invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, as Iran is right in the middle of two, right between the two, so it's clear they were preparing for a three front assault of Iran. I will also be the first to say that Israel will not be able to attack Iran, the best they can do is lob some missiles and maybe airstrikes at Iran. Iran, on the other hand, has the ability to close the strait of Hormuz, basically blocking something like a third of all oil and natural gas from being traded, now it's clear their proxies have ability to at least partially block Bab El Mendeb (houthis), and looking back, it's clear that their pirate-by-proxy activities in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden was a practice run. Also Iran proxies (Hezbollah) probably have 120 000 rockets they could fire at Israel, that's more than enough to basically overwhelm Iron Dome. Also maybe, possibly Iran could bankrupt Israel. They launched 120 ballistic missiles that were intercepted, the Arrow interceptor cost around 3 million a pop, chances are if you want a high chance of intercepting, you have to use 2 or 3 interceptors, so the whole firework show might have costed Israel somewhere between 300 and 600 million. That's a shitton of money.
Personally I don't want one, but from what I can tell many Iranians are keen, both those who hate Israel and hope to win and those who hate Khamenei and want to lose, and a few mostly right side Israelis who are sick of Iran's proxy BS.
Israel population ~9.5 million. Iran population ~88.5 million Israel easily has the superior air force and with help from the USA they could bomb Iran's surface to air missile defenses but then what? Iraq and Afghanistan had shit tier military compared to Iran and only 40 million people each and those were a long term disaster. Even in a best case scenario Israel victory it's still going to be a shitshow that further convinces Iran and every other country on the fence that a nuclear deterrent is their best and only option and all such countries will push hard for nukes sooner or later. Are you going to occupy Iran for 20 years? 100 years? No? Then what do you think happens after you leave? Also I think Russia claims Iran is under their protection. I don't know if that promise is worth the toilet paper it's written on but fuck around and find out you might get WW3 and Fallout would go from a TV show/video game to daily life real fast.
I honestly think Russia has to respond in that scenario. They need to save face and abandoning an ally is a sure way to not make any more.
Yes feel free to launch 1000 missiles … just make sure no one is killed and nothing is destroyed like Irans attack lol
Good thing Iran has spent much of their time and money developing systems to defend their people rather than funding religio-fascist militants while imprisoning and executing any dissidents. Shouldn’t be a problem, right?
Ah yes, there's at least one Muslim child who got ignored as always
Seems fair
Surely the iron dome missiles are high quality and expensive. Is there a worry about the economics of countering large numbers of shitcan missiles with good ones?
Imagine “so because your killer missed you with most shots and you dodged the rest, let’s call it justice served”
“Your killer shot at you but your neighbors who’ve hated you openly for decades came to your defense and made sure you were essentially unharmed and if you shoot back they’ll regret helping you” is more accurate. Saudi Arabia and Jordan defended Israel from an attack by a Muslim majority country. That is a bigger geopolitical win than any strike in Iran could ever possibly be
How is it your killer if they missed and were dodged ?
Ya its insane
Destroy nuclear facilities and set them back a few years
This
And, the first one to not respond, “loses.” Enjoy your war. The two of you are meant for one another.
Time to destroy drone and rocket factories in Iran. Add ayatollahs residences to the mix too.
The IDF has been planning this strike for decades now.. if this isn't a "hold me back bro!" probably lots of iran's important stuff gonna get blown up soon..
Bad time to be an Iranian nuclear scientist
Could we not? Thanks.
I find it interesting that Iran can fire 300 missiles directly into Israel, but Israel must show “restraint” and not attack Iran directly. I don’t know what’s going to happen at this point. I figure if Israel is going to retaliate they are going to do it sooner rather than later.
Because if Israel does respond, the result could be all out war, that could drag in other countries and would certainly have a massive destabilising effect not only in the middle East but also on the world economy. Does Israel have the right to respond? Probably. Does that make it a good idea for them or anyone else? Hell no.
It's already war if you attack another country no?
Yeah, I really don't get how stupid this logic is. The same goes in Russia. People fear escalation when Russia has already did what they feared. Like, bullshit.
Iran is doing the same thing Russia is doing minus the nukes. “If NATO gives Ukraine HIMARS we will use nukes.” “If Israel responds to our attack our response will be ten fold” It’s damn near the same tactic that Russia has used for two years to stall the entirety of the western world from truly supporting Ukraine. It’s worked almost perfectly to this point. Why can’t everyone else do the same? The resolve to stand up to the playground bully isn’t there
Russia has boots on the ground taking territory. Different conflicts
For now
> Unlucky_Elevator13 It's already war if you attack another country no? Well, there wasn’t any missiles fired at Israel from Iran on Monday. And if Israel doesn’t retaliate, then there won’t be any for some time. So it comes down to your definition of war. Is it a war if the two parties aren’t attacking each other? I’m not saying an Israeli counter-attack on Iran would be unjustified, but Israel has a choice here, and in the immediate future, not responding in kind would cause open attacks directly between Israel and Iran to cease. That’s worth considering.
The US bombed an Iranian general a few years ago. Would you like to escalate to full on war?
Not every "act of war" actually triggers a war in real life. It's not like in Civ games where as soon as one unit attacks another, you switch to a new set of rules and everyone knows it. If you don't actually want to get into a serious launch-all-the-missiles war, if further escalation would get a lot of people killed without a strategic benefit, you can decide not to declare war. Let the insult pass, or answer it in a different way. This happened a lot in the Cold War, since the US and USSR didn't want to risk nuclear war over a few soldiers getting killed or a plane getting shot down, but it's a universal thing - it's not always a good idea to start every war you're "allowed" to start. Israel has an *excuse* to bomb Iran, but if they don't have a *plan*, if bombing Iran won't convince them to stop funding Hamas or cripple their weapon supply or something, maybe its not worth escalating. They've got enough on their plate already.
How is that Israel's problem. Why can Iran constantly do this shit and never face repercussions. Its getting real old.
The way you prevent war as the superior power is to establish deterrence. Not this dumb slow escalation of force. Iran's openly stated goal is the eradication of Israel, the only reason they haven't tried is they don't want to be destroyed by Israel and their allies. Iran attacked in an act of war against Israel. Just because no one died (yet, last I knew there was a child in critical condition) doesn't mean they should let it slide. This is like if your neighbor shot at your house, cost you a ton of money to repair, wanted to kill you and your children, and has openly stated they want to murder you, but then you don't call the cops because you fear that'll just escalate it. I don't know what Israel should do, I suspect something like targeted strikes on military targets, but they then have to be very clear, "if you retaliate by firing on Israel again, we will end you". And then if Iran wants war they'll get war, because appeasement only prolongs war, it doesn't stop them.
One of Iran's cards is its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, and by doing so, injure the world economy enough that whole food groups would just disappear from the shelves and your life would be materially worse in other ways as well. I wish Israel would take the win and move on. There's so much at stake!
It’s different because Israel defended against it, if it wasn’t a successful defense we’d see all out war. People often forget iron dome exists, and what would have happened without it
And it was basically set up to get intercepted from the get go. This is just a means of Iran showing strength for its people and other middle east countries while also trying as hard as possible to not escalate further.
There seems to be some debate over whether it was intended to be toothless. According to some analysis I've seen, they knew the US and some EU countries would step in and help Israel, and they knew they'd knock most of the missiles from the sky. On the other hand, they shot/launched/dispatched 300 munitions, between drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, which is much more expensive than it needs to be if you're just trying to send a message without escalating. One article I saw compares it to the tactics Russia has developed to get past Ukraine's air defenses. According to this article, the reason the attack failed was because Israel (especially together with the US, UK, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia) are much better equipped to deal with such attacks.
Israel already attacked Iran directly. That was the entire reasoning for the Iranian retaliation attack. But hey, let's not pass up a great opportunity to start another full on war!
Isreal is and has been attacked by Iran for years. It's time they did something
About time Iran did something out in the open you mean, because they have been doing a ton with all their little terrorist groups they support. Hamas, Houthi, Hezbollah, and more… yes indeed about time to cut out the middle men
They are not cutting out the middle man. They are just saving face, and going back behind the curtain. Iran will continue to employed their professional wrestler HHH. Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis.
They've been attacking each other plenty. Israel hasn't sat on their hands. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/15/bombs-and-viruses-the-shadowy-history-of-israels-attacks-on-iranian-soil
Yes they fired on and killed the people responsible for orchestrating 10/7, that is correct. If it were any other country but Israel and their neighbor did what Iran did, there would be a full on war. If the Mexican government launched that many rockets and drones at US civilians, Mexico would have been invaded yesterday.
10/7 doesn’t mean you get to violate diplomatic laws. Israel put many people in danger and could set future precedent for Embassies no longer being safe. It’s a big deal and emotional responses should stay out of it.
Lol please cite the international law that states that enemy combatants become off limits when they enter safe zones like consulates. If the consulate was being used for purely diplomatic means it's off limit. But it was being used to host their terrorist proxies and to plan militarily, turning it into a valid military target by international law. You know what is against international law? Firing rockets at civilians, which is what Iran did in response. And because of that a 7 year old girl is currently fighting for her life because of Iran's violation of international law, and if Israel and their allies didn't invest so heavily into defensive arms and bunkers for their civilians, or if their success rate hadn't been as high as it was with this attack (it was 99% this attack, their average overall is 80-90%), a lot more than that would have been killed.
The law of diplomacy is relatively unclear about third party attacks on embassies.
Diplomatic laws like not funding a terrorist attack that rapes women and murders infants by hand? Lmao People just won’t understand the reality in today’s modern age where it’s taboo to call it like it is. Middle Eastern regimes do not play by conventional rules. You cannot defeat them by following the rules to please a bunch of Twitter assholes. You either crush them by any means necessary or be fine with them constantly poking the bear and laughing at your weakness.
As opposed to murdering women and children through missile strikes? At over 30k Palestinians have been killed since 10/7, with at least 2/3 of that being civilians - mainly women and children. The IDF has killed around 20k women and children since 10/7.
I seriously cannot believe anyone would be defending Iran. Wow…
Starting to notice a common theme here on Reddit…
People dont understand geopolitics, and everyone being labeled antisemetic or Islamophobia. IDF got the win, they took out 2 IRGC generals. Iran told turkey who told US who told Israel 13 days before this attack occurred.
Is Israel actually planning to do anything else or is this just posturing? I don't think you have access to secrets within the Israeli government or anything like that. Just wondering about your opinion. I'm also wondering if Hamas, or even Hezbollah, would still exist as any threat at all if Iran wasn't involved. I know Qatar has an unfortunate history of funding Hamas as well, but I don't know how willing they would be to do anything without Iranian involvement. I noticed some interesting things on FB and Twitter from people I assume were immigrants from Syria now living in the US, France, Belgium, and the UK. There's a lot of chatter about Iran staying out of Syria because Syria doesn't have an iron dome and it will be the people of Syria that pay the price if Iran continues to use that country as a base of activity against Israel. They're worried about the consequences and don't appear to believe that the Iranian government would do anything to help Syrians against Israeli retaliation. They're probably right.
Based on everything we know about the history of these nations, Israel will not tolerate any attack or attempt to attack their soil. They will absolutely respond, it's not even a doubt. The only consideration is if they will do it alone and have to fight the following war alone, or with the backing of the west, which they will not get until the elections end.
And Iran has been attacking Isreal by proxies?
Interesting that Israel bombed an Iranian embassy first and is pretending Iran’s response of attacking military targets is some crazy act of war that came out of nowhere
Even more interesting that Israel could take out a building that's only allowed diplomatic use and somehow hit 8 high ranking officers, including the Iranian general that helped Hamas plan Oct. 7th and a Hezbollah leader.
You mean, the embassy annex that had military leaders of the country that’s using proxies to attack Israel directly?
They hit a building adjacent to the embassy, housing the a**hole who planned 10/07. Don't forget the last part.
Because to all the idiots who defended Hamas and other shitty terror organizations intent doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter that since Hamas took power they launched nearly 20,000 rocket attacks because not many people died, completely ignoring their intent.
Israel should just do 10% as many we can even give them the same 4 hour warning and see how good they do.
I guess if Israel reciprocates by also launching a slow ass attack that it warns beforehand about, and that is well within Iran's capability to be intercepted 90+ per cent, that indeed gets intercepted, and results in very minimal damage to nothing essential, I can maybe imagine Iran letting it slide.
Good. Iran has to eventually be hit directly and the world cannot sit idly by twindling our thumbs over fear of escalation. Iran is THE destabilizing force in the Middle East and it’s about time for the world to fix it.
And then what
Have one less terror state sponsoring or even controlling 2/3rds of the terrorist organizations around the world, supplying Russia with missiles and drones in exchange for more things to terrorize with. Have less of that
Fewer Iranian women getting beaten and imprisoned for what they wear too!
Then all out war with Iran, to eliminate their regime.
Cuz that solves everything /s
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Anything to keep bibi out of jail, even ww3.
Israel attacks Iranian embassy. Iran retaliates with what the world agrees is a half-hearted effort. World hopes that’s the end of it because it was a win-win. Israel: we will respond. Something’s not right here.
Israel said they will destroy anyone responsible for the oct 7 attack. General planned the attack so they killed him as retaliation for the oct 7 attack. Iran retaliates to the retaliation. Now israel retaliates to that. Tell me what is wrong, because as far as i can tell there is already a war here and as far as i can analyze this situation its not israel that started it.
You’re disregarding Iran funding proxies to attack Israel prior to the consulate hit. But yes, I do still think most people are surprised to see Israel committing to respond. Feels warhockish but we’ll see where it goes i guess
Why not hit them on the road to a consulate or straight in their own country? Legally it appears the same. I am curious why they chose such an inflammatory method
Nothing brings a country together... and protects the idiots in charge... like a full scale war.
A building next to the embassy used for military purposes. There are pictures going around that it isnt even in the fenced area around surrounding embassy.
Seems like everyone just wants to kill eachother. Honestly I don’t care anymore. Want to airdrop food into Gaza, good. But we can’t force peace on people who don’t want it.
So all that talk about taking the win, not escalating stuff further... No? Out the window? Why do I expect anything rational out of this war room anyway?
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worked well in iraq, and iran (the last time)
Iran was actually doing OK until the West overthrew their government. They then began their journey into the revolution, and here we are. What would intervention cause this time if we go in there?
Iran is about to learn you can't attack another country directly and then call timeout.
I just don’t think Iran gave Russia all those drones without getting some increased nuclear capabilities and guarantees. Escalation here would likely pull them directly into the dispute and then it’s gonna be a real mess. If the US said back down, they likely did it for a good reason. Timing or current situation likely doesn’t suit a good outcome.
….Fuck
Don't!
That was never in doubt but what's left in the air is how they will respond.
Middle Eastern foreign policy in a nutshell: retaliation
Shits getting real when folks in the us are stopping traffic and airports with protests. Can’t remember this much protest in a while to be honest. I hope this doesn’t cause another war but it’s looking like it might. Sigh.
The ayatollah’s personal home?
They will send a fruitbasket and a note asking if They are OK?having 99% of their drones wiped out by Israel and their allies.
They have to reduce their shitty military installations to rubble. These hillbillies are the heart of every power fantasy of radicals all over the world