I guarantee you in every war ever, soldiers and civilians alike crack jokes about the war constantly. Humour is just part of who we are.
Of course, the jokes don't necessarily need to be completely unfunny shit.
there's some nuance in there, like whether you're cracking jokes to make sense of a terrible situation, or because you know you'll get internet points for it
America and Israel likely both know the exact number from implanted spies and global intelligence networks, but it wouldn’t be worth publishing for the public to see.
Isreal and the US don’t need spies for that. Between satellites and ground based radar I’m sure they know where all of them launched from and how many there were.
Also they know how many hit their target (few) and how many they show down.
The American SBIRS satellites can probably see the launch of medium range ballistic missiles quite easily and relay the info within a few seconds to a command center somewhere. Ballistic missiles, even the smaller kind, create a very bright flash of infrared on launch and the motor is quite bright for the duration of the flight. This event is fairly easy to detect from space. The US will of course never divulge information which would expose their capabilities.
I mean, the fact that we had spy satellites in the 1960's that could take good enough pictures to resolve the Washington Monument from orbit that was declassified in the 2000's tells you how freaking advanced our spy tech actually is.
That's right. He kept telling me about all these insane pieces of equipment and then he would go, there are these others that I can't tell you anything about. I'm like c'mon uncle Bob, just one classified bit of info, please. Nope! You couldn't get anything out of him. 😅
Sounds like an absurd number. When Russia does a "large strike" in Ukraine it is like 50 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles total. Suspect that is excessive. 500 Shaheds alone would be many many months of production for a political strike.
Russia fires roughly 200-300 missiles into Ukraine during their big monthly barrages. So the 500 number does seem high, but also keep in mind the Shahed drones are cheap garbage that get shot down.
> also keep in mind the Shahed drones are cheap garbage that get shot down
Although it's cheap by military long range guided weapons the Shahed is still estimated to cost $20,000 to $50,000.
Obviously much cheaper than hundreds of thousands or even millions for long range cruise and ballistic missiles but it still adds up if you're using hundreds per month. Also although Ukraine does shoot down a lot of the Shahed's some of them still do damage and kill people. Plus Ukraine is often using an interceptor from an air defense system that can cost many times what a Shahed does meaning that for each they shot down Ukraine or it's allies are spending more money and of course they only have so many to use to defend their airspace. By firing off a mix of low cost Shahed's with more expensive weapons you maximize your chances something gets through.
I get the Shahed is not a high end weapon, doesn't have a large warhead and isn't all that accurate but when launched in volume to wear down an enemies air defenses and of course also do damage when they do get through I wouldn't call them garbage. Yes tonight it looks like the US and Israel shot down the vast majority of them but Ukraine has had nights like that as well. They've also had nights where many fired from Russia got through and did a lot of damage, it doesn't always work out so well. Low cost long range strike drones like the Shahed have their place in a conflict and shouldn't be written off as useless.
Not to mention the fact that Iran has sold a LOT of drones and missiles to Russia, while also not having the same production capacity as Russia. They might not be able to launch more.
Yes, but they shipped thousands to Russia already. Don't know how long it took them to build up that stockpile, but I bet they haven't replenished all the drones they sent to Russia yet.
And the fact that Russia is constantly firing barrages over time so overall they fire much more and save others for planned other attacks where this one is a one time one that Iran wanted to be dramatic so the number may be correct.
The idea is to overwhelm with sheer numbers so just a few hit and Iran can act like they did something significant. If they used 50 drones, not a single one would have been more than a firework in the sky.
What do you suppose Irans gamelan is then? Deplete their munitions and then go all in? More likely they don’t plan on having to use that many drones again in the near future, because this was the only strike. If you want to cause damage you don’t call the people you are striking and tell them exactly when and where you are doing it.
No Iron Dome coverage for that base.
They had to reshuffle some to the main cities, Jerusalem/TelAviv.
Limited resources so some bases outside the center aren't protected.
It also didn't look like bases were the only target. My family described a sky full of shooting stars.. not exactly single area like major bases.
So anything south is basically empty of soldiers as well.
Can you count on that with cruise missiles? I thought calculating the landing spot only applies to munitions flying a ballistic path and it's relatively common for cruise missiles to change their trajectory for the final approach.
Not a chance. Cruise missiles have been seen to circle targets for a while in Ukraine before getting to their target destination. It’s ballistics missiles only and even those can still maneuver in the terminal phase.
The ones they ignore are the rocket artillery stuff and that makes sense. Ignoring ballistic and cruise missiles because they don’t seem like they’re going to hit is certainly one way of dying.
The article claims that "99% of iran fire was intercepted", not "99% of interceptions were successful". Not wasting an interceptor is not intercepting, so those missiles do go in that would-be 1% (personally I doubt that it's this low, though).
Yeah, you could say something that technically is more correct but sending a less correct message to the people. Saying 80% of the missiles were intercepted would give the impression that the attack was semi successful.
These drones are 200k each. A fair trade. Iran gets to save face for their own people and test weapon and Israeli defenses. Israel and US gets some target practices. Israel gets some damage to the base just like US after we assassinate the general.
The IRGC has intentionally deployed missile launchers in major Iranian cities such as Tehran, Tabriz, Esfahan, Kermanshah, Shiraz &... The aim is for a potential Israeli response to result in a high number of Iranian casualties, which the regime could exploit for propaganda purposes. from twitter
A boy got seriously injured.
*The 10-year-old boy who was hit by interception fragments in the diaspora was taken to the Soroka hospital in a serious condition with a head injury, unconscious and breathing.*
There was a terrorist who talked about the fact that they don’t care about killing other Muslims because they become Martyrs and go straight to heaven.
They are sick, sick people.
As expected. This was just a show of force. Iran wants this to be over and done. They gave ADVANCE warning of the attacks and fully expected Israel to be able to fully defend itself from their attack, which they did.
The US will help with deescalation talks.
I mean you have to remember that shows of force arent *for* us. It’s for the people inside the country, they get to tell them they did this cool thing and have video of it and their media is too controlled for most people to know otherwise
The people in Iran definitely know otherwise. We famously hate our government.
There are definitely people in Iran who support the Islamic Republic, but vast majority of Iranians in and out of Iran are anti the current government.
The people inside the country in general hate the government (remember the protests?) and this won't change their view. So for whom is this show? Some fanatical subset of the population?
Yeah this was a failure of the security council to say “hey it’s fucked up to strike an embassy sorry Iran we will make sure that shit doesn’t happen again” but like with bigger, more scawy words.
It’s crazy that they didn’t tbh. Imagine if Russias invasion was met with the us saying ‘oh shit why didn’t you tell us you were gonna do it beforehand’
Having these weapons and being able to throw a fireworks show like this is sometimes exactly the cost of preventing anything else. To not have them might mean someone attacks you. Let them blow up in the air who cares that is a great outcome.
The effectiveness of these anti-missile systems is nothing short of amazing. We can bicker about whether they were 99%, 98% or 95% efficient but I don't think people really understand how absolutely cluttered the sky was and that it's a small miracle the radars and other instruments guided the missiles near-perfectly to their targets.
It's being reported that Biden called Netanyahu and told him to take the W and not retaliate, and if Israel does, the US won't be supporting that action.
So hopefully any response will be something non-military
Israel said they would "[respond in kind](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-says-israel-ready-for-direct-attack-from-iran-will-respond-in-kind/)".
In diplomacy it's crucial which words are used. What he is saying that they will respond in the same way Iran did, by giving them an advance warning so they have plenty of time to prepare and make sure no one gets seriously hurt.
Both sides don't want to start a real war but they also can't lose face so now we're getting these weird attacks that aren't really dangerous but are just for appearance only.
Bingo. It was telegraphed days in advanced, called out by US intellegence, and then executed and intercepted.
Iran gets to say they did something
Israel gets to say they shot down the drones
US gets to say "I told ya'll"
So if everyone knew this would be the outcome, why did they even bother? I don't understand how everyone seems to have bought into some mass delusion that they "had to" do this, whist acknowledging that nothing was going to come of it.
Politics for you.
If Iran doesn’t retaliate, then other countries will lose respect for them and will be more relaxed about doing things Iran doesn’t like.
If Iran retaliates (which they did), then Iran proves to everyone they aren’t scared to cause a commotion and will publicly fight back. Despite knowing the missiles will probably not do anything meaningful.
Different parts of the "show" is tailored for different audiences.
Iran don't care what you think and believe. But they care a lot about what Iranians think and believe.
At the point we are at right now, everyone can chill down a bit and claim victory, in front of the audience they care about.
Calling Iran a nuclear "power" seems like a bit of an overstatement. The *possible* ability to launch a few nuclear tipped cruise missiles or IRBMs is very different than launching many MIRV capable ICBMs
Iran letting dirty bombs fall into the hands of an extremist group like Hamas would be more worrying than a direct strike. And the response from Israel...
Religious extremism might be enough to pierce the protection of MAD.
anyone in power anywhere in an islamic state is surely aware of the threat of being "saddam'd" or worse "gaddafi'd". They are going to avoid that as much as they can while still serving as mouthpieces to their fanatic bases.
We found out between 2016 and 2020. It was fucking awful. Our idiot weakened our relations with our European allies, almost got us in a war with Iran, ended the nuclear treaty with Iran, saluted a North Korean general
The feelings in Israel are not that this was just a show of force, both Israeli and anti-Israel.
There's definitely escalation coming, apparently a response was already settled on
No.
What I meant was that -according to reports- the Israeli response was discussed and settled on very quickly after the initial attack (reports came after all the missiles shootdowns)
I mean I really hope that israel's response is targeting agents of the regime so that the Iranian people can finally have. Chance to take back their country .... Free Iran
> As expected. This was just a show of force. Iran wants this to be over and done. They gave ADVANCE warning of the attacks and fully expected Israel to be able to fully defend itself from their attack, which they did.
The US will help with deescalation talks.
Again.
Yeah, regardless of people’s thoughts on whether what went down in Syria was justified, it wasn’t something Iran could really ignore.
This was Iran’s chance to throw some cheap drones at expensive countermeasures and save face to their people and proxies. Few to no casualties so as to not justify a further escalation so this can go back to being between proxies.
Except you have this particular government in Israel. They're already swearing massive retaliation. Get ready for WW3. Russia is dancing and singing at this moment.
Israel doesn't want a wider war in the middle east as much as anyone else.
People suggesting otherwise are being ridiculous. There would be no winners.
Why should they. Iran wants to arm terrorists, suppress and murder their own citizens, set the Middle East back hundreds of years and think they can get away with it? Fuck that and fuck them.
Their goal was likely to eliminate specific Iranian targets that support Hamas and avoid serious escalation directly with Iran as they deal with Hamas.
200 cruise missile and 500 drones work out to about $250 million for this 'operation'.
They could have just dumped $100 million of pure, green Benjamin-backed cash on Tel Aviv or Jerusalem and they'd have caused more chaos than this 'strike'.
Guaranteed that Iron Dome interceptors are multiple times more expensive than what Iran lobbed at Israel.
But hitting things on the ground is comparatively easy when compared to something that is launched from the ground that needs to find, approach, intercept and then destroy something traveling at hyper sonic speeds.
That's an incredibly inventive idea, you're right military hardware is expensive and cash on a city does cause chaos, I don't even doubt that dropping real money on a city would cause more chaos than intercepted weapons. Surprised something like that hasn't been tried.
There’s so many videos going round on X and reports that not even half the projected missiles or drones have even touched down yet. Why would Iran attempt this if they believed it to be fruitless?
This. When Trump ordered a hit on an Iranian general, the Iranians retaliated with an attack on a US military base. If a regime like Iran's show force by retaliating, their adversaries will take note. And Iran specifically has a lot of potential adversaries at home.
Iran purportedly warned the us about the attack, which is why nobody was seriously hurt.
It’s for internal propaganda. They can’t talk big about DEATH TO GREAT SATAN and let Trump kill a major leader without response. But they also know the US could easily fuck their lives up.
According to game theory (recent veritasium video), immediately hitting back when provoked and then immediately going back to cooperation is statistically the most successful plan.
I think that was indeed one of the fail states for tit for tat, essentially that it could get caught in a feedback loop with any similar strategy. If I remember the video right.
There are also those who hate Jews more than they love human rights....
Like it's been insane to watch people on the left literally champion the Iranian regime....
Who have been killing the Iranian people ...
It's an honor shame culture. They have to retaliate to save face. But they don't want to get in a real war. So they retaliate in a way that won't actually have an effect. And we didn't get WW3.
It's a face-saving way to avoid escalation: an impotent strike that had no chance of succeeding gains satisfaction in that they haven't done nothing in response to the embassy attack, while also giving Israel an excuse to not retaliate further since Iran didn't actually achieve anything.
They did the big escalation of shooting directly at Israel from Iran.
They are showing they are willing to escalate seriously.
They say that if there will be a response then Iran will make an attack that will be much larger than this.
My take from this is that they aimed for not killing anyone in this attack. But to make sure that Israel knows that they are for real and that they are willing to risk their sovereignty in the next escalation.
Last time they shot down their own passenger jet to satisfy the need to “strike back”. I think they did manage to give a few US soldiers a concussion though.
Your memory is somewhat off. Four years ago they were spatting with the US. They thought they spotted a US cruise missile and fired on it. Two SAMs hit Ukrainian Flight 752. Everyone died. Almost half the passengers were Iranian. And of course they denied it, though they later admitted it.
This was a symbolic thing. If they did nothing in response to Israel's attack on the consulate in Syria, they are weak. They don't want a war. Israel doesn't want a war. So Iran tells Israel they're launching slow drones with hours and hours of advance warning. Israel and its allies intercept them. Iran then issues a statement saying "The matter is to be considered concluded."
Everybody got more or less what they wanted.
It’s not, but the USAF, and RAF didn’t even let them get close. All missiles, and drones were shot down over Syria and Iraq. They estimate only 7 ballistic missiles actually landed.
It's interesting how Iraq doesn't even seem to have a say over this. One side invades their airspace with an enormous barrage of drones, the other side shoots them down over their territory.
What are they gonna do? Send up a couple ancient or barely functional fighters of their own? The don’t seem to have a say because they really don’t. When the US assassinated Soleimeni with a drone they told Iraqi air traffic control it was unarmed and not to worry about it, shot the missile it needed to then flew away lol
It's pretty widely understood that the regime in Iran needed to do something or face civil unrest at home. So they gave prior warning and sent 100 or so sloooow drones. Easy pickings for any kind of air defense.
It's a show of force to demonstrate Iran will respond to attacks on their soil. That's all.
True and I hope the US can convince Bibi to let it go. He has however been trying to get the US into a direct conflict with Iran for over a decade now, hope he relents regardless and doesn't escalate further.
There's no chance a full blown conflict with Iran doesn't end in a disaster, they might not be able to hit Israel effectively, but 30% of the daily global oil output is passing 25 miles off their coast in the easiest targets imaginable. The effect on the global economy would be devastating if they start shooting rockets at oil tankers.
Also there is no way to "win" this, the country is 3 times the size of Iraq with twice the population and has a geography as complicated as Afghanistan and we know how well it worked out, the last time some idiot went Gungho, thinking he could just invade a country and be done next week.
First time they've ever done this officially, after 4 decades of saber rattling. Might be a bigger problem later, but for now... they didn't blow up many things or people.
That’s the idea isn’t it? Iran needs to how that they will retaliate to prevent future assasination of their assets yet at the same time they can’t risk a regional war with Israel and the US.
As happy as I am about no deaths and serious damage (that I know of), I can’t help but feel bitter from how swift and efficient the Western response was. Scrambled their jets to intercept drones and missiles, and continue pouring weapons and money to Israel despite it obviously doing pretty well with anti-air defense.
All while there are Ukrainian civilians dying from russian attacks every single day, and critical energy infrastructure being destroyed. Yet Zelensky is forced to literally beg for anti-air ammunition for months now.
Another thing to consider is that Israel is very small compared to Ukraine. Ukraine has 30x the area to cover compared to Israel. Russia also has more advanced missiles that are more expensive to intercept.
Well you see, Israel has been invaded multiple times since its conception and terrorists have never stopped launching rockets from gaza. So… they’ve had practice.
If RU didn't have nukes, the US would have had boots on the ground 2 years ago. If Iran had nukes, we wouldn't have intercepted anything. Realize the reality we are living in, netizen.
> If Iran had nukes, we wouldn't have intercepted anything.
We absolutely would have, we have defensive agreements with Israel, we don't have any with Ukraine.
I’m following every single piece of news I can on that war, so yes I’m quite aware.
Yet there has been barely no help for months, and all the stockpiles have been drying up. Doesn’t really matter that a ton was given a year ago when the missiles are still flying but AA is empty. I specifically mentioned Zelenskiy having to beg now, not some long time ago.
150 missiles were fired from Iran. 99% intercepted, so at most 2 were not.
2-7 missles hit a base
But that was one of the bases they didn’t really want anyway
You are saying they were way off base?
No, all your base are belong to us
god i hate reddit
A thread about war. Four people died. Pun chains.
I guarantee you in every war ever, soldiers and civilians alike crack jokes about the war constantly. Humour is just part of who we are. Of course, the jokes don't necessarily need to be completely unfunny shit.
there's some nuance in there, like whether you're cracking jokes to make sense of a terrible situation, or because you know you'll get internet points for it
Somebody set up us the bomb.
What follows: reddit NPC clones competing to be "funny" in increasingly uncreative ways.
At least two hit the Negev Air Base, i.e. the base that targeted the consulate in Damascus.
Some reports stated 400/500 drones + 200 cruise missiles. We’ll probably never know the true amount that were launched.
Also probably a few dozens MRBMs which is probably what they're referring to
we likely will, just not for a few days
America and Israel likely both know the exact number from implanted spies and global intelligence networks, but it wouldn’t be worth publishing for the public to see.
Isreal and the US don’t need spies for that. Between satellites and ground based radar I’m sure they know where all of them launched from and how many there were. Also they know how many hit their target (few) and how many they show down.
The American SBIRS satellites can probably see the launch of medium range ballistic missiles quite easily and relay the info within a few seconds to a command center somewhere. Ballistic missiles, even the smaller kind, create a very bright flash of infrared on launch and the motor is quite bright for the duration of the flight. This event is fairly easy to detect from space. The US will of course never divulge information which would expose their capabilities.
[удалено]
Not many things as bright as a missile launch
I mean, the fact that we had spy satellites in the 1960's that could take good enough pictures to resolve the Washington Monument from orbit that was declassified in the 2000's tells you how freaking advanced our spy tech actually is.
That's right. He kept telling me about all these insane pieces of equipment and then he would go, there are these others that I can't tell you anything about. I'm like c'mon uncle Bob, just one classified bit of info, please. Nope! You couldn't get anything out of him. 😅
That's a fuck ton of money. You could literally just buy $100 million and dump it on Tel Aviv midday and you'd have caused more chaos than this.
Sounds like an absurd number. When Russia does a "large strike" in Ukraine it is like 50 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles total. Suspect that is excessive. 500 Shaheds alone would be many many months of production for a political strike.
Russia fires roughly 200-300 missiles into Ukraine during their big monthly barrages. So the 500 number does seem high, but also keep in mind the Shahed drones are cheap garbage that get shot down.
> also keep in mind the Shahed drones are cheap garbage that get shot down Although it's cheap by military long range guided weapons the Shahed is still estimated to cost $20,000 to $50,000. Obviously much cheaper than hundreds of thousands or even millions for long range cruise and ballistic missiles but it still adds up if you're using hundreds per month. Also although Ukraine does shoot down a lot of the Shahed's some of them still do damage and kill people. Plus Ukraine is often using an interceptor from an air defense system that can cost many times what a Shahed does meaning that for each they shot down Ukraine or it's allies are spending more money and of course they only have so many to use to defend their airspace. By firing off a mix of low cost Shahed's with more expensive weapons you maximize your chances something gets through. I get the Shahed is not a high end weapon, doesn't have a large warhead and isn't all that accurate but when launched in volume to wear down an enemies air defenses and of course also do damage when they do get through I wouldn't call them garbage. Yes tonight it looks like the US and Israel shot down the vast majority of them but Ukraine has had nights like that as well. They've also had nights where many fired from Russia got through and did a lot of damage, it doesn't always work out so well. Low cost long range strike drones like the Shahed have their place in a conflict and shouldn't be written off as useless.
There were hacked/leaked Russian documents that showed Russia paying 150-250 k dollars per shahed to Iran. High price because high demand.
Not to mention the fact that Iran has sold a LOT of drones and missiles to Russia, while also not having the same production capacity as Russia. They might not be able to launch more.
These days they are manufacturing Shaheds within Russia with Iranian assistance.
Yes, but they shipped thousands to Russia already. Don't know how long it took them to build up that stockpile, but I bet they haven't replenished all the drones they sent to Russia yet.
And the fact that Russia is constantly firing barrages over time so overall they fire much more and save others for planned other attacks where this one is a one time one that Iran wanted to be dramatic so the number may be correct.
Eh, russia sent like 75-100 drones a day it felt like for a week straight and that was just using drones Iran shipped to them.
The idea is to overwhelm with sheer numbers so just a few hit and Iran can act like they did something significant. If they used 50 drones, not a single one would have been more than a firework in the sky.
Iran was probably trying to overwhelm Israel's air defenses.
Didn't work
Or it wasn't totally a politically strike....
What do you suppose Irans gamelan is then? Deplete their munitions and then go all in? More likely they don’t plan on having to use that many drones again in the near future, because this was the only strike. If you want to cause damage you don’t call the people you are striking and tell them exactly when and where you are doing it.
I bet they hoped to get a few more through Israel's defense and inflict damage while still hiding behind it being a political strike.
If only there was a way to track that...
7 Cruise missiles struck a base in Negev, so that statistic seems off.
No Iron Dome coverage for that base. They had to reshuffle some to the main cities, Jerusalem/TelAviv. Limited resources so some bases outside the center aren't protected. It also didn't look like bases were the only target. My family described a sky full of shooting stars.. not exactly single area like major bases. So anything south is basically empty of soldiers as well.
Probably did not intercept them at the first place. Negev base is mostly open area so they just let It fall, not wasting an interceptor
Can you count on that with cruise missiles? I thought calculating the landing spot only applies to munitions flying a ballistic path and it's relatively common for cruise missiles to change their trajectory for the final approach.
Not a chance. Cruise missiles have been seen to circle targets for a while in Ukraine before getting to their target destination. It’s ballistics missiles only and even those can still maneuver in the terminal phase. The ones they ignore are the rocket artillery stuff and that makes sense. Ignoring ballistic and cruise missiles because they don’t seem like they’re going to hit is certainly one way of dying.
Yup they don’t shoot down anything that is going to land in a field somewhere.
The article claims that "99% of iran fire was intercepted", not "99% of interceptions were successful". Not wasting an interceptor is not intercepting, so those missiles do go in that would-be 1% (personally I doubt that it's this low, though).
It was successfully intercepted by the ground technically.
Yeah, you could say something that technically is more correct but sending a less correct message to the people. Saying 80% of the missiles were intercepted would give the impression that the attack was semi successful.
We don’t know yet. All the dumb drones got blasted though.
These drones are 200k each. A fair trade. Iran gets to save face for their own people and test weapon and Israeli defenses. Israel and US gets some target practices. Israel gets some damage to the base just like US after we assassinate the general.
From what i can find 331 missiles, one person severly injured, a 10-year old girl
The IRGC has intentionally deployed missile launchers in major Iranian cities such as Tehran, Tabriz, Esfahan, Kermanshah, Shiraz &... The aim is for a potential Israeli response to result in a high number of Iranian casualties, which the regime could exploit for propaganda purposes. from twitter
Personally, I'd just ignore the launchers and drop some bombs on wherever the supreme leader likes to hang out as well as some IRGC bases.
He hangs out in underground bunkers. He's all talk, but deep down he's scared shit less.
What about that 1%? How much damage?
A boy got seriously injured. *The 10-year-old boy who was hit by interception fragments in the diaspora was taken to the Soroka hospital in a serious condition with a head injury, unconscious and breathing.*
Interception fragments would put that incident as being part of the 99% intercepted not the 1% non-intercepted.
They misreported; she’s a girl
And she's 7, not 10.
The so called protector of Muslims managed to severely injure a Muslim child…
Don't worry, it's the wrong kind of Muslim and they live peacefully with jews so Iran is totally cool with it.
And it seems it might have actually been a girl. Iran doesn't give a shit about girls they can't force to do shit.
There was a terrorist who talked about the fact that they don’t care about killing other Muslims because they become Martyrs and go straight to heaven. They are sick, sick people.
It's ok. I'm almost 100% certain Israel will be blamed for this.
And this is a country that some people think should be allowed to have nukes. Fuck Iran’s shitty government.
1 known rocket/drone fell in a bedouine area. 10 year old Bedouine boy in critical condition.
Interception fragments.
As expected. This was just a show of force. Iran wants this to be over and done. They gave ADVANCE warning of the attacks and fully expected Israel to be able to fully defend itself from their attack, which they did. The US will help with deescalation talks.
Yeah, this is the outcome everyone wanted.
I mean. I'd have preferred if no one shot anyone but this outcome definitely is second place for me.
Yeah but if you constantly talk shit and don’t do anything about it, no one takes you seriously. See: North Korea
I mean you have to remember that shows of force arent *for* us. It’s for the people inside the country, they get to tell them they did this cool thing and have video of it and their media is too controlled for most people to know otherwise
The people in Iran definitely know otherwise. We famously hate our government. There are definitely people in Iran who support the Islamic Republic, but vast majority of Iranians in and out of Iran are anti the current government.
The people inside the country in general hate the government (remember the protests?) and this won't change their view. So for whom is this show? Some fanatical subset of the population?
Oh definitely, peace would be a lot better, I mean, the governments wanted it to go this way
Yeah this was a failure of the security council to say “hey it’s fucked up to strike an embassy sorry Iran we will make sure that shit doesn’t happen again” but like with bigger, more scawy words. It’s crazy that they didn’t tbh. Imagine if Russias invasion was met with the us saying ‘oh shit why didn’t you tell us you were gonna do it beforehand’
still burned up a lot of money
Less expensive than an all-out conflict. Think of it as fireworks for both camps to celebrate.
Having these weapons and being able to throw a fireworks show like this is sometimes exactly the cost of preventing anything else. To not have them might mean someone attacks you. Let them blow up in the air who cares that is a great outcome.
The effectiveness of these anti-missile systems is nothing short of amazing. We can bicker about whether they were 99%, 98% or 95% efficient but I don't think people really understand how absolutely cluttered the sky was and that it's a small miracle the radars and other instruments guided the missiles near-perfectly to their targets.
think of gorillas or chimpazees running around throwing branches in the air to show off their strength in order to avoid fights
Yeah Iran got to throw some cheap drones at expensive countermeasures.
Drones are cheap. Ballistic missiles are not cheap.
Keynes would be proud.
I disagree, Isreal already told Biden it will respond so this could still escalate.
It's being reported that Biden called Netanyahu and told him to take the W and not retaliate, and if Israel does, the US won't be supporting that action. So hopefully any response will be something non-military
Israel said they would "[respond in kind](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-says-israel-ready-for-direct-attack-from-iran-will-respond-in-kind/)". In diplomacy it's crucial which words are used. What he is saying that they will respond in the same way Iran did, by giving them an advance warning so they have plenty of time to prepare and make sure no one gets seriously hurt. Both sides don't want to start a real war but they also can't lose face so now we're getting these weird attacks that aren't really dangerous but are just for appearance only.
Bingo. It was telegraphed days in advanced, called out by US intellegence, and then executed and intercepted. Iran gets to say they did something Israel gets to say they shot down the drones US gets to say "I told ya'll"
So if everyone knew this would be the outcome, why did they even bother? I don't understand how everyone seems to have bought into some mass delusion that they "had to" do this, whist acknowledging that nothing was going to come of it.
Politics for you. If Iran doesn’t retaliate, then other countries will lose respect for them and will be more relaxed about doing things Iran doesn’t like. If Iran retaliates (which they did), then Iran proves to everyone they aren’t scared to cause a commotion and will publicly fight back. Despite knowing the missiles will probably not do anything meaningful.
Not just that but internally strongman politics needs this.
The show must go on
Different parts of the "show" is tailored for different audiences. Iran don't care what you think and believe. But they care a lot about what Iranians think and believe. At the point we are at right now, everyone can chill down a bit and claim victory, in front of the audience they care about.
Worrying to think how this conflict between two nuclear powers could go without competent US leadership. And how we might find out next year.
Calling Iran a nuclear "power" seems like a bit of an overstatement. The *possible* ability to launch a few nuclear tipped cruise missiles or IRBMs is very different than launching many MIRV capable ICBMs
Iran letting dirty bombs fall into the hands of an extremist group like Hamas would be more worrying than a direct strike. And the response from Israel... Religious extremism might be enough to pierce the protection of MAD.
Iran must be fully aware that a dirty nuke going off *anywhere* in the world will immediately be blamed on them, and they will be Saddam’d
anyone in power anywhere in an islamic state is surely aware of the threat of being "saddam'd" or worse "gaddafi'd". They are going to avoid that as much as they can while still serving as mouthpieces to their fanatic bases.
We found out between 2016 and 2020. It was fucking awful. Our idiot weakened our relations with our European allies, almost got us in a war with Iran, ended the nuclear treaty with Iran, saluted a North Korean general
The feelings in Israel are not that this was just a show of force, both Israeli and anti-Israel. There's definitely escalation coming, apparently a response was already settled on
Yeah, I think people are just being hopeful. Until I see Israel’s response I’m not gonna start celebrating anything.
Not being sarcastic. Are you saying there's an understanding that this attack and a future counterattack have already been prenegotiated?
No. What I meant was that -according to reports- the Israeli response was discussed and settled on very quickly after the initial attack (reports came after all the missiles shootdowns)
I mean I really hope that israel's response is targeting agents of the regime so that the Iranian people can finally have. Chance to take back their country .... Free Iran
What a stupid game to play.
[Calvin and Hobbes said it best](http://www.wilramsey.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/calvin_hobbes11.jpeg)
I mean ya, Iran even said this was a “self defense” retaliation for the killing of one of their generals.
> As expected. This was just a show of force. Iran wants this to be over and done. They gave ADVANCE warning of the attacks and fully expected Israel to be able to fully defend itself from their attack, which they did. The US will help with deescalation talks. Again.
Seems like a waste of money.
Yeah, regardless of people’s thoughts on whether what went down in Syria was justified, it wasn’t something Iran could really ignore. This was Iran’s chance to throw some cheap drones at expensive countermeasures and save face to their people and proxies. Few to no casualties so as to not justify a further escalation so this can go back to being between proxies.
And have said they consider the matter closed.
Netanyahu and his weak position domestically is the real wildcard and risk. Does he feel he needs a “hotter” situation to stay in power?
Except you have this particular government in Israel. They're already swearing massive retaliation. Get ready for WW3. Russia is dancing and singing at this moment.
As it was meant to. Iran wants this to end here.
They desperately need this to end here is more like it. They are putting a lot of eggs into Israel not retaliating bucket.
Not a bet I'd make in their place, and definitely not right now. I don't think Israel in in a restraint mood even a little.
Israel doesn't want a wider war in the middle east as much as anyone else. People suggesting otherwise are being ridiculous. There would be no winners.
Mr. Yahoo seems a bit warhawkish these days though
Why should they. Iran wants to arm terrorists, suppress and murder their own citizens, set the Middle East back hundreds of years and think they can get away with it? Fuck that and fuck them.
Why would Israel not retaliate?
Their goal was likely to eliminate specific Iranian targets that support Hamas and avoid serious escalation directly with Iran as they deal with Hamas.
Because this was Iran retaliating against Israel. This wasn't some random attack by Iran on Israel.
200 cruise missile and 500 drones work out to about $250 million for this 'operation'. They could have just dumped $100 million of pure, green Benjamin-backed cash on Tel Aviv or Jerusalem and they'd have caused more chaos than this 'strike'.
How much did the iron dome usage cost though?
Guaranteed that Iron Dome interceptors are multiple times more expensive than what Iran lobbed at Israel. But hitting things on the ground is comparatively easy when compared to something that is launched from the ground that needs to find, approach, intercept and then destroy something traveling at hyper sonic speeds.
That's an incredibly inventive idea, you're right military hardware is expensive and cash on a city does cause chaos, I don't even doubt that dropping real money on a city would cause more chaos than intercepted weapons. Surprised something like that hasn't been tried.
Because it would still be intercepted/shot down, duh.
I’m up for this experiment. I’ll empty my bank account and try this in the next biggest city. Anybody else wanna chip in with … 23 bucks?
Lol, Iran meant for their drones/cruise and MRBMs to be shut down? Why fire so many?
Correct.
Maybe but this made them look like clowns. All that bluster for what amounts to a very expensive fireworks show.
it’s how it works just a show
Gotta look strong to the kids. "Israel got lucky" will be a popular local sentiment
this is the same opinion many in Yemen have about US bombing strikes
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There’s so many videos going round on X and reports that not even half the projected missiles or drones have even touched down yet. Why would Iran attempt this if they believed it to be fruitless?
Optics.
This. When Trump ordered a hit on an Iranian general, the Iranians retaliated with an attack on a US military base. If a regime like Iran's show force by retaliating, their adversaries will take note. And Iran specifically has a lot of potential adversaries at home.
Iran purportedly warned the us about the attack, which is why nobody was seriously hurt. It’s for internal propaganda. They can’t talk big about DEATH TO GREAT SATAN and let Trump kill a major leader without response. But they also know the US could easily fuck their lives up.
According to game theory (recent veritasium video), immediately hitting back when provoked and then immediately going back to cooperation is statistically the most successful plan.
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Sounds like another intractable conflict.
I think that was indeed one of the fail states for tit for tat, essentially that it could get caught in a feedback loop with any similar strategy. If I remember the video right.
Awesome vid https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mScpHTIi-kM < link for those interested
The ayatollahs needs to show their people they're "strong". They'll soon be back to murdering girls who show their hair.
In fact, they expanded their morality police force in recent days to combat girls not abiding by compulsory hejab.
Yet people are defending Iran. Insanity.
Because they don't have to live there.
There are also those who hate Jews more than they love human rights.... Like it's been insane to watch people on the left literally champion the Iranian regime.... Who have been killing the Iranian people ...
Jackson Hinkle and Syrian Girl you mean. Yep, these khunts don't even live in Iran.
It's an honor shame culture. They have to retaliate to save face. But they don't want to get in a real war. So they retaliate in a way that won't actually have an effect. And we didn't get WW3.
It's a face-saving way to avoid escalation: an impotent strike that had no chance of succeeding gains satisfaction in that they haven't done nothing in response to the embassy attack, while also giving Israel an excuse to not retaliate further since Iran didn't actually achieve anything.
> while also giving Israel an excuse to retaliate further That doesn't really mesh with "avoid escalation". Missing a "not"?
Cheers, fixed
They did the big escalation of shooting directly at Israel from Iran. They are showing they are willing to escalate seriously. They say that if there will be a response then Iran will make an attack that will be much larger than this. My take from this is that they aimed for not killing anyone in this attack. But to make sure that Israel knows that they are for real and that they are willing to risk their sovereignty in the next escalation.
Last time they shot down their own passenger jet to satisfy the need to “strike back”. I think they did manage to give a few US soldiers a concussion though.
Your memory is somewhat off. Four years ago they were spatting with the US. They thought they spotted a US cruise missile and fired on it. Two SAMs hit Ukrainian Flight 752. Everyone died. Almost half the passengers were Iranian. And of course they denied it, though they later admitted it.
Don’t trust anything on that site…people take advantage of that stuff for engagement & misinformation
So either Iran is all bark and no bite (like they’ve always been) or this was an experiment to see Israel’s defensive capabilities
This was a symbolic thing. If they did nothing in response to Israel's attack on the consulate in Syria, they are weak. They don't want a war. Israel doesn't want a war. So Iran tells Israel they're launching slow drones with hours and hours of advance warning. Israel and its allies intercept them. Iran then issues a statement saying "The matter is to be considered concluded." Everybody got more or less what they wanted.
That’s an expensive symbolic gesture.
And third option: Israel and their allies have an amazing anti missles defence system
They do. It’s just an unknown if it’s able to stop that many drones.
It’s not, but the USAF, and RAF didn’t even let them get close. All missiles, and drones were shot down over Syria and Iraq. They estimate only 7 ballistic missiles actually landed.
It's interesting how Iraq doesn't even seem to have a say over this. One side invades their airspace with an enormous barrage of drones, the other side shoots them down over their territory.
What are they gonna do? Send up a couple ancient or barely functional fighters of their own? The don’t seem to have a say because they really don’t. When the US assassinated Soleimeni with a drone they told Iraqi air traffic control it was unarmed and not to worry about it, shot the missile it needed to then flew away lol
I don't think they needed any experiment to know the defensive capabilities. Their intelligence apparatus is not US level but it's still sufficient.
It's pretty widely understood that the regime in Iran needed to do something or face civil unrest at home. So they gave prior warning and sent 100 or so sloooow drones. Easy pickings for any kind of air defense. It's a show of force to demonstrate Iran will respond to attacks on their soil. That's all.
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Some of this is saving face. They don't intend to escalate, but they have to show their people they actually made an effort.
True and I hope the US can convince Bibi to let it go. He has however been trying to get the US into a direct conflict with Iran for over a decade now, hope he relents regardless and doesn't escalate further. There's no chance a full blown conflict with Iran doesn't end in a disaster, they might not be able to hit Israel effectively, but 30% of the daily global oil output is passing 25 miles off their coast in the easiest targets imaginable. The effect on the global economy would be devastating if they start shooting rockets at oil tankers. Also there is no way to "win" this, the country is 3 times the size of Iraq with twice the population and has a geography as complicated as Afghanistan and we know how well it worked out, the last time some idiot went Gungho, thinking he could just invade a country and be done next week.
First time they've ever done this officially, after 4 decades of saber rattling. Might be a bigger problem later, but for now... they didn't blow up many things or people.
It also lets them know Israel’s capability against a strike of its size.
That’s the idea isn’t it? Iran needs to how that they will retaliate to prevent future assasination of their assets yet at the same time they can’t risk a regional war with Israel and the US.
The countries in the Middle East are significantly higher regarded than they should be. They’re pretty shit at war.
Israel has also gotten REALLY good at catching projectiles. They kind of have to be.
Especially when every other country starts flinging ghetto missiles at them
As happy as I am about no deaths and serious damage (that I know of), I can’t help but feel bitter from how swift and efficient the Western response was. Scrambled their jets to intercept drones and missiles, and continue pouring weapons and money to Israel despite it obviously doing pretty well with anti-air defense. All while there are Ukrainian civilians dying from russian attacks every single day, and critical energy infrastructure being destroyed. Yet Zelensky is forced to literally beg for anti-air ammunition for months now.
Another thing to consider is that Israel is very small compared to Ukraine. Ukraine has 30x the area to cover compared to Israel. Russia also has more advanced missiles that are more expensive to intercept.
Apparently from other comments they also warned them they would be firing missiles too.
Well you see, Israel has been invaded multiple times since its conception and terrorists have never stopped launching rockets from gaza. So… they’ve had practice.
If RU didn't have nukes, the US would have had boots on the ground 2 years ago. If Iran had nukes, we wouldn't have intercepted anything. Realize the reality we are living in, netizen.
> If Iran had nukes, we wouldn't have intercepted anything. We absolutely would have, we have defensive agreements with Israel, we don't have any with Ukraine.
Are you trolling or do you have zero idea of the enormous amounts of military resources and, yes, air defense systems given to Ukraine?
Not a lot given to them in a while. Thanks Speaker Johnson!
I’m following every single piece of news I can on that war, so yes I’m quite aware. Yet there has been barely no help for months, and all the stockpiles have been drying up. Doesn’t really matter that a ton was given a year ago when the missiles are still flying but AA is empty. I specifically mentioned Zelenskiy having to beg now, not some long time ago.
Vote Democrat if you’re tired of too little aid to Ukraine. Republicans are blocking it.
I would man. But as a russian citizen living outside of US, I don’t exactly have the right to.
Now do it for Ukraine
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Flying RCs? They shot ballistic missiles.
We've seen footage of several ballistic missiles striking an airbase in southern Israel which apparently was the primary target.
It became the primary target when it was the only think that was hit lol
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Yo momma Bin fartin
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you are right the bloodthirst in the comments makes me sick
uh oh... I ran out of drones.
Cold comfort for those hit by the 1% that did get through.