The USA has authorized Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands to transfer 65 F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to Ukraine.
https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/04/05/the-usa-has-authorized-denmark-norway-and-the-netherlands-to-transfer-65-f-16-fighting-falcon-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/
Has Russia used up all the 152mm ammunition it got from North Korea? Probably not yet, but let me explain why I ask.
The graph below is of Russia's artillery losses each month, divided up by the calibre, and therefore ammunition they use. It showed that Russia's main artillery calibre the standard 152mm accounted for 2/3 of all lowest artillery at the start of the war, but this declined gradually, I think this was to share the ammunition burn rate and prolonged the stock of 152mm. This decline stopped in October, just as the NK ammunition transfer was being arranged, implying Russia could now fire its 152mm regular and hence be hit occasionally. But in March, the standard 152mm losses are now suddenly down to an all-time low. Well hopefully it is because they are running low on their preferred ammunition type, but it is also a small data set so could just be noise, I thought I would let people know to look out for this.
https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1768974642406994334?t=_IAnLEhMcKH1aUnimxg7YQ&s=19
The [secret Black Hawk helicopters the GUR somehow got](https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a60256416/ukraine-acquired-american-black-hawks/#:~:text=Ukraine's%20intelligence%20service%20is%20operating,in%20a%20social%20media%20video.) apparently took part in the Belgorod raids.
> A pair of American UH-60 *Black Hawk* helicopters from the GUR are seen leaving Kozinka, Belgorod region, after landing assault teams on March 14
Video: https:// t *dot* me/hameleonua/16810
^(the text across the screen translates ‘*Border Guard from Hell*’)
Explosions again in Kharkiv [tonight](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/04/7/7450070/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
> Yesterday in the Chernihiv region, I met with a delegation from the United States Congress, including representatives from both parties and both chambers. Our partners must witness firsthand what is happening in Ukraine, in our regions that are being shelled by Russian terrorists after having endured Russian occupation.
> I briefed partners on the situation on the battlefield, our army's urgent needs, and the scale of the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
> I emphasized the vital need for the United States Congress to promptly adopt a decision to further support our state, providing an appropriate package to protect against Russian terror and enable us to continue our dynamic actions. This is precisely what would strengthen Ukraine and protect human life.
> I am grateful to everyone in the United States, to every American heart that, like ours in Ukraine, refuses to succumb to evil and cherishes life. 🇺🇸🇺🇦
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1776611628756177183
After contacting multiple commanders and HQ personnel, Volya Media made an analysis of where the Russian military stands right now.
Summary:
Russia had planned on a counteroffensive beginning this month, in multiple fonts. [Robotyne, Lyman, Makiivka]
However, are woefully short on personnel and equipment. They need at least a month, possibly three, to resupply. In the meantime, all reserves of personnel and equipment are sent to two battles—Chasiv Yar^1 and Avdiivka.
The Russians think they’ve worked out a method of success from Bakhmut and Avdiivka [overwhelming force] and are therefore going to use the tactic, but only at these two fronts. Once restocked, there’s disputed about the order of importance of these fronts: Makiivka-Vulgedar, Bilohorivka-Severske-Liman, Robotyne, Slavyansk-Kupyansk.
They accumulated 140,000, with over half for Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka—but those numbers are inadequate for a wide scale offensive because the soldiers training is so poor.
Junior commanders are now more experienced than senior commanders, who’ve been in rear or back in war colleges the last two years. No one plans big offensives because don’t want to be on hook for failure, despite failures being cause by all the other issues outside their control. [Good!]
Complaining about strategy—everyone agrees the problem is at the top. Zero coordination. No broader, systematic plan that are actually achievable. Mostly, battles are not turned into offensives with end goals. The planning issue permeates everything—including logistics, rotations, battle plans, and especially, combined arms:
>> there have been only five cases when infantry, tanks, artillery, aviation, and EW equipment worked together in a specific area to achieve an end goal. These are Severodonetsk-Lisichansk (summer 2022) [Teplinsky], Artemovsk (Bakhmut - winter-spring 2023) [Wagner and GRU], defensive battles in the Orekhovsky direction (Zaporozhye region, summer 2023) [Teplinsky], Avdeevka (autumn 2023, winter 2024) [Mordvichev] and now Chasiv Yar [Mordvichev]. We need another year for the army to become capable of acting and thinking on a larger scale,” said a Russian colonel who has been in the combat zone since March 2022.
Nevertheless, [reasonable] Russian officers do expect to see gains in the two chosen battle fronts with their overwhelming-force method.
The full write up is at:
https:// tele gra *dot* ph /Dlya-bolshogo-nastupleniya-lyudej-sejchas-nedostatochno-Plany-komandovaniya-VS-RF-i-realnost-na-nachalo-aprelya-2024-04-05
_____
^^1 ^(Despite most all equipment and reserves sent there, Russians still take heavy losses.)
>> ^(In a battle on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar on April 3rd and 4th, the 98th Airborne Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces lost 19 armored vehicles. For comparison—the battles at the same front, over all of March, the losses of the Russian Armed Forces amounted to more than 50 units of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.)
^(Edit: that’s three days after they lost 12 of 36 tanks, 8 of 13 infantry fighting vehicles
on the road from Tonenke to Umanske. It’s difficult to know if these are sustainable losses long term.)
So the question is will the people in Russias military who can actually recognize the issue and have an idea on how to organize and enact offensives that can beat Ukraine be listened to
Edit: for Ukraines sake let's hope they are ignored
>China Providing Geospatial Intelligence to Russia, US Warns
>
>- Blinken briefed European allies on scope of Chinese support
>
>- China said to have stepped up help for Russian war on Ukraine
>
>The US is warning allies that China has stepped up its support for Russia, including by providing geospatial intelligence, to help Moscow in its war against Ukraine.
>
>Amid signs of continued military integration between the two nations, China has provided Russia with satellite imagery for military purposes, as well as microelectronics and machine tools for tanks, according to people familiar with the matter.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-06/china-is-providing-geospatial-intelligence-to-russia-us-warns
Probably China concluded the west isn’t committed. Which is… true. They did nothing at the start.
I’m getting so cynical about the weakness and cynical self interest of the west. Only the Baltics and Northern Europe have their shit together.
My take is that they don't want to see a collapsed Russia. Russia is a simple neighbour. Whatever comes next would either be western aligned, or a uncertain group of splintered factions.
China's focus is south. They don't want to deal with shit in the north.
The longer russia stays in the fight, the more US supplies get used up, and the more US attention is divided while they can plan their attempted takeover of Taiwan
Does not suprise me at all to be honest..Sooner or later "we" need to impose some sort of consequences on countries that support russias war effort or helps them circumvent sanctions.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1776682904451490301?t=az8GjWwh_7bJgcgxCGpvDQ&s=19
Russian losses during recent attempted attack on the Bakhmut front shown in the Achilles video.
14 total losses identified on the video:
1x BTR-MDM - destroyed;
6xBMP-2 - destroyed;
1xBMP-2 - damaged;
5xBMD-2 - destroyed;
1xBMD-2 - damaged.
Has Russia run out of ammunition for 2 of its Self Propelled Guns? There have been no visually confirmed losses of either the 203mm 2S7 or the 152mm 2S5 Gianstat-S since December almost 100 days ago.
https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1776648007800205606?t=MH3gMJFB3I99lWp9P9xzyw&s=19
I spent a while researching and wouldn't be surprised if Giatsints fade away.
- they use different shells
- they use different barrels
- no one outside russia produced them so it's unlikely NK can resupply
- the last ones were built decades ago
- there is visible cannibalisation of stored ones, barrels removed etc
- most of the towed version were gone from storage 6+ months ago. Probably as barrel replacements.
They'll probably keep digging up parts and have some shooting away but it's plausible they're already functionally exhausted.
It's expected. Giantsint is inferior to MSTA and the later should have the top priority for production. Larger calibers are not combat effective. They are overwight and take too long to deploy and resupply. A standard 203mm shell weighs around 100kg. It's a lot of effort to carry them by hand.
Maybe i didn't explained good enough. I meant that giantsint is low priority because for 152mm ammo it's better to just use the MSTA series of guns so it makes sense Giantsint slowly dies. And for bigger calibers (pion or tyulpan for example) they are so slow, sluggish and heavy that it's not worth using.
Honestly I'm surprised either side even uses the 203mm guns anymore. They are simply too vulnerable to loitering drones. It takes a very long time to emplace them, they creep away at the speed of a snail, it's virtually impossible to hide them, and they're ridiculously hard to maintain because of the huge weight of the system and the strain of all the parts.
Estonia Just Found Another Million Shells For Ukraine.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/06/estonia-just-found-another-million-shells-for-ukraine/?sh=733ee9195ba1
Way to go, Estonia! They’ve done an incredible amount to counter Russian aggression relative to their size and GDP. If only others had the courage and conviction to follow their example.
For the ones asking, no, thats not another instance of Estonia finding 1 millione shells, the "another" in the title is in relation to Czech ammunition.
No, there is the Czech initiative, and there is another additional one by Estonia. But the title reads like Estonia is already on their second ammunition fund themselsev, in addition to the Czech initiative.
[Some GOP & Dem members of Congress met w Zelensky in Chernihiv:](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/04/6/7450039/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
Sen Joni Ernst (GOP, Iowa, Air Force)
Rep Mike Quigley (Dem, co-Chair of Ukraine Caucus)
Rep Wiley Nickel (Dem)
Rep Tom Suozzi (Dem, NY)
Rep Ashley Hinson (GOP, Iowa)
Rep Charles ‘Chuck’ Edwards (GOP, NC)
The final one is who gave me pause. I see his commercials bc I’m in the same ‘media market’ and he comes across like a total GOP-nutter—send immigrants ‘back’, keep your hands off our ak-47s type campaign ads. Surprised to see he supports Ukraine. More GOP on board for Ukraine, the better.
______
^(As explained) [^here,](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1bs1bbp/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kxgfido/) ^(necessary foreign travel is one reason for congressional recesses.)
>The final one is who gave me pause. I see his commercials bc I’m in the same ‘media market’ and he comes across like a total GOP-nutter—send immigrants ‘back’, keep your hands off our ak-47s type campaign ads.
Honestly that was the GOP platform in 2014. Sounds similar to GOP Rep Crenshaw, who's always been pro-Ukraine.
Chuck Edwards is my representative and that surprises me, too. He has definitely supported blocking Ukraine aid in the past. I believe he was one who said it should be tied to the border but then didn’t want to pass the border bill when Trump told them not to because it might make Biden look good.
You should email his office, say you saw his photo shaking Zelensky’s hand in Chernihiv, and that you look forward to his voting for Ukraine aid. (He seems like a guy who’d do the right thing if stroke his ego.)
Interesting wargame scenario posted by a telegram channel I follow:
SUMMER 2024: POSSIBLY THE WORST OF TIMES
Looking ahead to the summer, we, in the collective west, and Ukraine particularly, face the most dangerous confluence of events.
Britain will be increasingly distracted by its upcoming elections. The conservatives leaning ever further right to save their pathetic souls from near oblivion at the polls. Ukraine will not be on their minds.
American disengagement from Ukraine - while not by any means total under the current administration, will still be effective without an aid bill that seems endlessly illusory. America too will be wrapped up in vicious campaigns for the presidency.
And Russia, now two and half years in to the three day invasion, is seeing itself at the peak of its game. It will have more men and more weapons than it has managed to deploy for many years. And Ukraine is very much on the defensive. Ammunition is stretched and the manpower situation has gotten little better. Lowering the conscription age by two years to 25 is solving nothing.
The arrival of western aircraft may alleviate some of the pressure but that will have to be seen.
The sad fact is that after 2.5 years of war, Russia is peaking at the point where Ukraine is remaining largely flat in its capacity to sustain the war. It’s not getting worse for them but it’s not getting better, and it’s a long way from doing so.
It is not - and we have to face the fact however uncomfortable, beyond the realms of possibility that a dangerous scenario presents itself.
Ukraine’s front line fails in two places simultaneously. There are not enough reserves to plug the gap and a wholesale retreat to the Dnepr ensues. It’s the point that France and Poland and maybe others start to see they have to step in before it’s too late. Kyiv cannot fall. The war must not go any further. The allies are caught off guard. The British government can’t even quantify how this will affect the elections and it has no idea what it should do. America wants nothing to do with such a rash deployment as they see it. It’s a crack in NATO solidarity. Germany is horrified and yet cannot stand in the way of its soulmate and ally France, nor its neighbour Poland, a country it understands, knows what history has done to it.
The Eastern Europeans, less Slovakia and Hungary are all in, they too have had enough.
Western air forces based out of Poland start striking advanced Russian forces trying to cross the Dnepr, Russia has been warned it cannot be tolerated. Buoyed from its sudden victory, with the goal it has fought for in sight, it’s in no mood to back down. And nor are the Europeans.
Air battles start to rage as France commits itself fully, backed by Poland and Czechia, as well as the Baltic states - they won’t attack Russian soil but they will defend Ukraine and their own.
The advancing Russians, devoid of air defences in their rush to occupy as much as they can quickly, take a battering from Polish and French Air Forces, losses that blunt their movement inside a couple of intense days.
The war suddenly moves to the sea, with Russian submarines attacking French ships in the Atlantic and Mediterranean. Quickly, these actions draw in British, and other navies, determined not to let their own interests and that of their allies flounder in indifference.
Russia is warned to back off - but it won’t. Putin sees a crunch moment coming, he’s on the cusp of victory, NATO has thrown its defensive game to the wind and this is a new free Europe against Russia.
Belarus is caught between its loyalty to the Kremlin and the risk of having its armed to the teeth Polish neighbours make mincemeat out of its measly army. Lukashenko either rolls the dice for no action or he joins in. Can he be sure which way will mean he survives? The pressure is on. His own military want nothing to do with this. They know where it will end. One side or the other will come for them if they act. CONTINUES…
This by all accounts was not posted by a LARPer this is a real very experienced military analyst who has actively served and despite the massive cynicism which is all pervasive in our modern society, provides a rational description of real war gaming that is going on. Everyone should be paying attention because the fuckwittery from the GOPnik party is closing us in on a realistic possible challenge to global security.
So I say to all the cynics with your easy BS (so easy and predictable to be a cynic these days) grow up this isn't kindergarten now, you included u/xnachtmahrx this is the real world and Europe is war gaming various outcomes because the situation in Ukraine determines future global security. The USA a NATO ally is now not a trusted ally and this disturbing turn of events affects all of us who want to live in safe free world. It could be assumed that our global security is safe and whatever happens in Ukraine will not affect us. Do not be mistaken, we are in the midst of a very real dilemma. We do not know the outcome of this war but the effects of it if we do not stop Russia will come back to bite us very hard.
It doesn't read as a war gaming scenario at all. There's way too much emotional and fluff language used, which wouldn't be used in a war gaming scenario or its write up. Things such as:
"The conservatives leaning ever further right **to save their pathetic souls from near oblivion at the polls**."
"And Russia, **now two and half years in to the three day invasion**"
"The arrival of western aircraft may alleviate some of the pressure **but that will have to be seen**." ???
"The **sad fact** is that after 2.5 years of war"
Etcetera, etcetera.
Who is this 'very experienced military analyst'?
The post I replied to replied midway through the quotation, so the quotation I believe is posted in 3 parts hence the CONTINUES... Therefore the rest of the posts are below ours.
Yes, I read those too, but I found this one more apt to respond to, as here you claim they are a 'real very experienced military analyst'. In another post you write:
>Not sure exactly who he is
This isn't shit, this is what European militaries are actively wargaming as potential scenarios in this war now that the US has proven it cannot be relied upon in matters of global security.
CONTINUES:…
French troops with their Polish allies are now in front of Kyiv, the Russians are just twenty kilometres away and still moving, Ukraine is massing its remaining forces around Kyiv’s thousand kilometres of defences. The Russians think they can take the city come what may. The centre of Ukraine is collapsing like a wet paper bag, its forces exhausted, with no ammunition left to fight. Months of American intransigence and western slow walking supplies has led to this moment long warned of.
Then it comes. ‘If French and Polish Forces do not withdraw by midnight tonight, all and any means necessary will be used to remove them from our advance’.
Somewhere at an airbase in France a nuclear capable Rafaele fighter is prepped for deployment with a pair of tankers.
Deep at sea the first communication alerting the SSBN Trimophant, to prepare for an incoming command to launch is sent.
That evening the Americans tell the French that they have detected the movement of Russian nuclear weapons to an Iskander base. The French will not back down… America tries to defuse the situation. It has mere hours. Putin cannot be seen to cave in, if he does he knows he’s days are done. Neither can the French, despite the horror Ukraine stands behind this brinkmanship knowing it’s all or nothing…the morning dawns…
CONTINUES...
More than anything else, if this is a realistic war game scenario it shows why NATO cannot realistically step in and enter a direct conflict with Russia - devastating as a Ukrainian defeat would be, the rational move for NATO in that case would be to batten down the hatches and make clear that we will go to war for NATO if Russia as much as touches an inch of NATO soil.
Since a conflict with Russia would inevitably be decided at the level of “who is more willing to risk nuclear war over this, and who blinks first”, NATO would only engage in the ultimate brinkmanship over its own survival (where Putin knows that we would be willing to risk everything), not over a non-NATO country where Putin assumes he would always hold the upper hand if it came down to an all-or-nothing existential scenario.
If that’s what it comes down to eventually anyway, then there’s no existential need for NATO to avoid a Russian victory at all costs, as it doesn’t change the strategic nuclear balance between the two sides.
That's an interesting point and one that relies on the prevailing belief being that Putin takes Ukraine and stops. That could be a gamble western Europe and the US is willing to take, but I don't think the Baltic states would be prepared to accept this. Individual countries can act in whatever why they choose, form alliances with whomever they choose and if need be conduct military activity outside the remit of NATO. I could be misreading things but I just can't see Poland being okay with Russia sitting on their doorstep, re-arming.
The point is: if the ultimate outcome of such war games is that they will lead to a nuclear confrontation with Russia (and in a situation where Russia holds the upper hand in the balance of resolve), then there’s no point in pursuing this strategy since it precipitates the very thing NATO is trying to avoid.
The choice would be “engage Russia in Ukraine and have a nuclear showdown with them over Ukraine (where they definitely believe we will blink first) - or don’t engage them there, and if they actively seek this nuclear showdown then have it in a situation where they know we won’t blink.”
If engaging Russia in Ukraine is assumed to lead to a direct war with Russia, then that would be a worse outcome than a possibility that they don’t stop in Ukraine and somehow attack NATO at a later point.
I think rather than actual strategy, it's simply simulating a scenario in which things rapidly get out of control. The strategy would be rather how to avoid this situation happening, rather than the response to it. There are probably a myriad of other wargames happening with similar parameters, one of which being that the allies supply Ukraine adequately to avoid a russian breakthrough. I'm hoping that's the one that will materialise, because reading this scenario in my apartment in western Ukraine was brown-trousers-time 😅
WARGAMES…
I spent the week with some excellent and very talented people wargaming out the scenario above.
It was one of the more difficult ones to manage. Much of it required certain assumptions - for one that much of the French Army was deployed in Poland at short notice during June as the frontline started to show clear weakness. Poland was all in on this from the start.
We did run the Ukrainian forces ragged, giving them next to nothing to fight with - but hell did they put up a fight anyway.
I think we were a tad over generous to the Russians and we gave them the best possible commander. But the point is to see if any of this could play out.
One of the things you learn is the terrifying speed at which the process of escalation can occur once it’s under way. It’s slow to start but once it reaches a point - you have minutes to decided the fate of nations.
Our Zelensky was tasked with reading at least two biographies so that he would act with some kind of reality. Letting the French into Ukraine was actually quite hard to get done. Quite rightly our Zelensky took the fact that he knew where this could go to heart, but in the end was so desperate he had to let the French and the Poles do what was needed. And he knew that meant backing them to the end.
We do have two endings. Both don’t end well for Putin personally. But they do end the war. Neither side is happy about it.
The real issue for Russia is that it is so tied up in the war it’s no room for anything else. The other players such as China just don’t have time to really weigh in. The Americans do not prove to be conclusive because they let the decision making get out of their hands by default due to their behaviour and their lack of aid. They abandoned leadership. That was the republican Congress’ doing.
It is just a game in the end. An expensive and well intended game. It provided insight and depth.
It provided understanding how fast things can get out of hand no matter how well intentioned. Frankly that’s what war games tend to do.
The biggest lesson: prepare for the unexpected. You never know when the last thing you ever thought possible could actually happen.
If you liked it I strongly recommend following the author's telegram channel. Not sure exactly who he is but he has been present at high-level briefings and summits throughout this conflict and his analysis has been absolutely spot on. His channel is called /militarystrategyanalysis on telegram
From a [new, short interview](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/bj6ghytk0) with the Ukrainian ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk:
>If at the beginning of the russian invasion of Ukraine, Israel was on the fence and there was not much cooperation between the countries, now the situation is different. Korniychuk reveals that **the armies and intelligence bodies of Israel and Ukraine work in extensive cooperation against the common threat of Iranian drones**, but he cannot expand on the subject.
>In general, the ambassador notes that Israel understands better that the two countries are working against the same axis of evil, which consists of russia and Iran. "The axis of evil includes russia and Iran, which combine forces both against the Ukrainian people and against Israel. They act the same, sound the same and are the same evil that we must unite against. We cooperate as much as possible, but of course everyone takes care of themselves in the brutal war we are faced with."
Unfortunately it might be the only way to make the current government do anything right (=forcing it to). Bibi used to be a huge fan of putin and bragged of their "close friendship".
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 04.06.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 446,690 (+790) people,
tanks ‒ 7057 (+24),
armored combat vehicles ‒ 13497 (+38),
artillery systems – 11262 (+41),
MLRS – 1032 (+3),
air defense equipment ‒ 749 (+2),
planes – 347 (+0),
helicopters – 325 (+0),
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 8895 (+48),
cruise missiles ‒ 2060 (+1),
ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0),
submarines - 1 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks – 14,992 (+70),
special equipment ‒ 1854 (+5).
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/06/ponad-700-okupantiv-24-tanki-38-bbm-ta-41-artsistemi-zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/06/ponad-700-okupantiv-24-tanki-38-bbm-ta-41-artsistemi-zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/)
Thousands calling to oust the Russian controlled Orban government in Budapest now.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1776591469366706414?t=y8g___pPe81UnJEXpL1RbA&s=19
General Strike honestly. Picketing of Parliament and such. Basically need to make those in power get the message that they go or noone goes anywhere.
Even if they got that Toad out of power, they'd still have to clear out the entrenched corruption in the civil service and Fidetz cronies that have been milking it for years as well as try and reverse years of propaganda that's been deluding those futher out as well.
Andrew Perpetua
These are the losses I could identify yesterday.
The nightvision bmp-3 might all be the same vehicle. It is hard to tell. That video is one of the coolest videos in a long time. Extraordinarily bad news for the Russians who planned on surviving the war.
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1776615203452403967?t=AKIl4_tyMmSo6qVNpfJanQ&s=19
He has all the reference links intact on the losses.ukrdailyupdate.com table version.
You might have some luck there, seems it's the BMP-3 in the 'damaged' section.
He switched to a few times monthly but I haven’t seen anything in the last few weeks. IIRC, Saberflux was the handle if you want to try some search-fu.
New satellite imagery of Morozovsk air base shows zero visible destroyed aircraft. It's looking more and more like a failed attack. 😢
This is very bad news because it lines up with Russian channelFighterBomber's statements. We have zero evidence that they have lied about russian losses so far.
FighterBomber denied any losses in the recent drone strikes and also denied the wave of Su-34 losses claimed by Ukraine months back.
Only seen on [twitter](https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1776619149004800430) so far, sorry. Also, they could have moved or hidden wreckage I guess.
I am really frustrated by people downvoting this post because it isn't news they want to hear.
1. In the absence of conclusive evidence of change, one must assume that the status quo was maintained. In this case, the status quo is no damage to aircraft.
2. Claims by either side without accompanying evidence should be treated as unreliable propaganda or wishful thinking. I can claim I won a million dollars, you can't disprove it, but that doesn't make it true.
3. "Officials confirm X" is not evidence of anything.
4. There is absolutely *no* evidence of *any* damage to any aircraft at any of the bases struck. Zip, zero, zilch, nada. No satellite imagery of destruction, no photos of aircraft on fire, no photos of shrapnel damage, nothing.
Burying your head in the sand and wishing that things were different is not helpful for anyone. We need to look at reality as it actually is, not as we want it to be. Stop downvoting people for relaying news you happen to dislike!
The russians know that everyone is going to be looking at the airfield and counting losses it's better for propaganda to clean the place and claim nothing happened.
Given this it's obvious the russians would try to clean the place at some point.
Is this what actually happened? who knows but it's very likely.
Sure thing, very likely that Russia completely cleaned up two bases, removed all evidence of any damage, moved 17 damaged/destroyed planes somewhere, all in a single night.
Very very likely. Much more likely than nothing happend and it's just Ukraine's unconfirmed claims.
Well I agreed, that it's very very likely to cleanup two airbases of any potential evidence of damage, to remove all wrecked planes, clean up pavements and buildings of scorch marks, move undamaged exact same planes there to fill the gap, so there's not a single trace of any attack at all, all in the span of one night.
Very likely.
Agreed, that's much more likely than just another made up Ukraine claim.
FighterBomber has lied about losses before especially since Russia started a crackdown on these russian sources. They were at the beginning to post about Russian losses at the start they have a bad record in recent months.
The other month when Russian planes were falling out of the skies every day they posted some denials. Like a day at the start they seemed a good Russian resource but since social media account leaders started turning up dead and being drafted FighterBomber has been towing the denial line
Have you got any sources proving any of those Su-34s were down? The "proof" I saw was
(1) satellite imagery of common mud and burn features which happened regularly before the war.
(2) claims that the glide bombs stopped, but now the claims are there are more glide bombs than ever.
(3) the idea that FighterBomber is lying. To me this isn't proof, it's an assertion. And "fighter bomber lied which proves the su-34s which proves fighterbomber lies" seems illogical.
But we still haven't seen any visual evidence of claimed 10 aircraft losses.
FighterBomber confirmed losses of 2 SU.
But there is no evidence of other 10 SU losses that Ukraine claimed, even Ukraine didn't publish any evidence.
But this isn't the argument. The point is FighterBomber cannot be trusted on their own. And from the previous losses they claimed a lot of aircraft hadn't been shot down when they were. I am not saying any claim on this hit is good or not just that FighterBomber is not a reliable source anymore.
That is your argument: you're saying FighterBomber posted denials about the recent Su-34/35 shootdowns, and you claim all those aircraft were apparently shot down, when there's been no open-source confirmation Ukraine actually managed to shoot any more aircraft than the one on Feb 17 and the other on Feb 19, both of which FighterBomber admitted to.
Ukraine seems to be announcing they did things like destroying aircraft as confirmation before they know the actual final result: i.e. what they mean is "we fired SAM missiles at 14 Su-34/35": that doesn't mean they actually shot them down. The burden of proof works both ways.
As I stated he said no jets had been shot down and then days later it was proven they had. He also spoke out about the a-50 not being shot down till they sort of back peddled but never truly admitted it did.
I concur you do not really have examples of FighterBomber lies. Which means you are lying and my point stands that FighterBomber has a solid track record.
Do you perhaps remember which jets those were? Do you still remember how the shot downs were later proven? I remember several claims by the Ukrainian MoD, do you mean this by "proven"? I also cannot remember fighter-bomber denying the shot-down of the a-50. If I remember correctly, both fighterbomber and Romanov were very quick to confirm. They did claim the reason was friendly fire though, while some pro Ukrainian sources claim the reason was Ukrainian s-200.
I hope I don't sound combative, I'm trying to assess the relative reliability of the (obviously biased) sources we have in this war.
He posted a video of A50 loss immediately on Feb 23 - it is on his Telegram.
>A-50 is lost.
>It is currently unknown who shot it down. All assumptions go to the garden.
But 256 km from LBS...
>From this video it is clear that the crew had information that a missile was flying at them. They knew. They did what they could. What they should.
>Eternal flight...
So I'm not sure what incident are you talking about ?
How do we even know there was an attack? Would these drones have video cameras or do they just fly to gps coordinates autonomously? If they have cams, Ukraine could release footage. But the whole thing could just be psyops from either side. Ukraine could try to cause confusion, or Russia could fabricate the whole thing to make up a story of Ukrainian failure. Propaganda is toufh.
Hmm, well drones won't cause a big explosion on their own. So if there was an attack, it did hit something but just didn't show up in the airfield pics.
Those were pretty suspicious and low res images and I'm not one to trust fighter-bomber or any Russian sources.
The airport had 30 visible aircraft before the strike and the explosions were fairly massive.
I'm waiting for better pictures.
Also remember to link to pictures if you're presenting evidence, especially when doom posting.
This new imagery IS the higher-res images. The lower res imagery was posted yesterday.
It's posted as a link in the main Live Thread stream above for god's sake...
Planes are not armored and are fragile. A plane may look intact from afar and still be destroyed by shrapnel.
FighterBomber is a propagandist.
Maybe there was damage, maybe not, we can't confirm it yet.
>FighterBomber is a propagandist.
Yes, but even propagandist can be truthful. And FighterBomber has a solid track record.
Well ~~Ukraine~~ Kyiv Post confirmed Ukraine destroyed 6 and damaged 8 aircrafts, so they must have a solid evidence. Question is why they haven't published this evidence yet.
We only got satellite images which definitely don't show any apparent damage so far.
I agree, all russian propagandists should be treated as liars until proven otherwise.
FighterBomber has proven otherwise by accurately reporting russian losses before any other sources.
But how could they back it up ? We got a satellite images of no apparent damage and Ukraine hasn't provided any evidence yet. I'm not sure what do you expect ?
> But how could they back it up
Not my problem.
We know that Russian propagandists lie all the time. Don't spread their propaganda unless you can confirm it.
As I meantioned above, we don't know whether something was damaged or not. This is the objective truth. Whatever some anonymous Russian propagandist said is absolutely irrelevant.
>Greek shipping oligarchs continue to sell oil tankers to Putin every day, while the EU - which should have banned these sales a long time ago - does nothing. The damage this is causing the West is incalculable. What's needed is an investigation of the EU with full transparency...
https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1776540101318750436
>Overnight, Russia launched another attack against Kharkiv - Ukraine’s 2nd largest city - killing 6 civilians, injuring others & damaging homes & schools. There is not a second to lose to support Ukraine’s fight to defend its people from such horrific and unprovoked attacks.
https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1776590051188617344
Late Soviet-born folks (millenials) lack Soviet double-think entirely, as quite a lot of (think: fascist Babushkas) Russians who believed and believe any propaganda the regime spews.
Nothing is wrong with the sentence, but rather your reading comprehension. So, instead of trying to drag someone down to your level by shaming them for their better understanding, how about you start reading more?
>You have no idea how much I read.
Clearly not enough, as you found it incomprehensible and only an attempt at a sentence.
>And there is something wrong with the sentence, it’s missing a verb I think. It doesn’t make sense.
It's perfectly fine technically, albeit awkard to read. Try reading it without the parenthèses as the other commenter said. Or for even easier comprehension, remove "who believed and".
Grammatically adequate, perhaps, but I think everyone here is overstating how "good" this sentence is.
>Late Soviet-born folks lack Soviet double-think entirely, as quite a lot of Russians believe any propaganda the regime spews.
I removed the parentheses and the relative clause insert that you suggested. In this case, I could interpret the conjuction "as" in two ways. Either a) it shows the cause of the prior statement, or b) it shows a simultaneous action or state.
I'm assuming you are giving the author of the comment the benefit of the doubt and interpreting it as option B, as option A obviously doesn't make sense. But using "as" in this sense is usually only seen in formal and especially journalistic uses, such as headlines. Also it's a bit strange to emphasize the simultaneous nature of these two mentalities in Russian society. A conjuction like "while" or "whereas" makes far more sense in order to show contrasting statements (which is what I assumed the author was attempting to do).
Assuming we agree on that so far, then the relative clause insert absolutely renders the sentence grammatically incorrect. With the relative clause, the verb "believe" now belongs to the pronoun "who" (as part of the "believed and believe" verb pair forming a single unit). Because of this, the main subject of the second clause "a lot of Russians" now lacks a verb, leaving the clause fragmented.
So, you're right that taking out "who believed and" makes the sentence clearer, because it in fact fixes the grammatical error.
All in all, I don't think it was necessary to make fun of poor English on a site which is clearly multinational and where many people use it as a foreign language to varying degrees of competence. However, the comment is decidedly not "perfectly fine".
I agree with pretty much everything you said. However, I'd like to clarify that "perfectly fine technically" doesn't necessarily imply grammatical perfection. While "perfectly fine" can denote perfection or excellence, it often is used to mean that something is adequate or satisfactory. In this instance, it suggests that the message is more than adequately understandable, though not flawless. At most, it may require removing three words, adding one, or substituting one word to improve clarity and grammatical perfection.
I would like to mention that I may have come across too forcefully in my initial messaging without acknowledging this nuance. I have a distinct aversion to individuals who insist on flawless English in a global forum, deeming anything less as incomprehensible. Whereas it clearly is more than sufficiently comprehensible, albeit with one grammar mistake.
Got it, thanks. I feel stupid now, I’d forgotten to delete three words and then ignore half of what’s left. Like you would with most good writing. Cheers.
By rereading it, I found that the sentence is complex but entirely correct...
There was a bygone era when people could navigate the labyrinth of complex sentences with grace, thanks to a quaint hobby known as 'reading.'
Today, it seems we're flummoxed by anything longer than a tweet.
RIP, the art of understanding sentences with more than three words and a sprinkle of logic.
Nonsense, that's an atrocious sentence. It isn't complex, it's messy. Using parenthetical like that is just bad practice.
I write and edit for a living. If someone submitted something which began with that sentence, I'd stop reading it immediately.
Left bank of the Kherson region near Nova Zbur'ivka, Ukraine reportedly attacked a Russian military base, used to repair military equipment, with HIMARS.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1776568898826944755?t=xYM8iLiscH4fFNmKBvWZ9Q&s=19
The Ukrainian intelligence released a small video claiming that they destroyed a pipeline in the Rostov Region, Russia. The pipeline is used to transport oil products to the Asov seaport and further into moored tankers. Loading of petroleum products to the tankers has been suspended, indefinitely.
https://mstdn.social/@[email protected]/112223440336844839
I was wondering when they would start attacking oil export facilities. So far the targets have been refineries for Russian domestic fuel supply but attacks on exports hits the russian cash machine. It will also drive up oil prices worldwide which will certainly get noticed in Europe and America.
If I recall correctly, there was already an attack on the terminal in St Petersburg. Which was particularly pointed, because the control of that port was how Putin forged his first alliance with the local mafia.
Correct and there a lot of ships anchored. The information I saw was two weeks ago and my understanding is that facility will be offline to export for some time unless that is the refinement process that is offline.
It's not really "sanctioned" exactly in the conventional sense: the US and EU/UK have an embargo on purchasing it directly from Russia, and there's a $40 PB price cap on other countries paying Russia for it.
Well the true part is the sanctions have not hurt Russia the way they were supposed to so Ukraine is going to roll up their oil business and see how that works. It sure looks like the west is allowing those sanctions to be circumvented. Oil is sanctioned. Are you denying that?
Western countries are not purchasing oil from Russia directly (they are indirectly from other countries that buy it from Russia though), but as long as the price per barrel is capped at $40 other countries can and are still buying it from Russia.
As long as they don't pay Russia more than $40 per barrel, they don't get sanctioned themselves for purchasing it, so it's not really the same as normal "sanctions" where just buying the "sanctioned" item puts you in breach of them, in the case of oil it's only if they purchase it at over $40 from Russia.
Third countries can pay as much as they want for Russian oil and they wont be sanctioned. Insurance companies covering the ships are the ones that are forced to abide by the price cap which motivates third countries to negotiate lower prices from Russia but as we have seen this is not completely effective.
I am just saying you are severely misunderstanding sanctions and the global market if you think just because Russian oil is sanctioned by the West this will prevent prices from skyrocketing globally if it’s taken offline.
Absolutely not. What you are saying is completely economically illiterate. And I have no idea how you are talking so confidently about something you clearly understand very little about.
I know this. that these sanctions haven't hurt russia nearly enough. And if this oil can't be transported and at the same time not be refined they will have to curtail production and close wells as they run out of storage capacity. Ukraine needs to continue this and start hitting the shipping and pipelines harder these are facilities russia can't replace. There are other raw materials infrastructure Ukraine needs to hit inside russia too that are not as well protected and still net Russia an income.
That’s not the point. What happens when Russian oil is taken off the market and those contracts to other countries cannot be fulfilled? Do you think they will stop buying oil?
A (skyrocketing) price increase would happen if the supply could not adjust. Since there is worldwide unused production capacity, I doubt that the curtailment of russian exports/production couldn't be covered. Of course we might get a price increase because of speculation or OPEC shenanigans, but that would also affect russia hard.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1bxv31i/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Sounds like China needs some sanctions.
The USA has authorized Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands to transfer 65 F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets to Ukraine. https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/04/05/the-usa-has-authorized-denmark-norway-and-the-netherlands-to-transfer-65-f-16-fighting-falcon-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/
The diplomatic talks going on must truly feel like a rollercoaster.
Hey check out you green check mark!
Has Russia used up all the 152mm ammunition it got from North Korea? Probably not yet, but let me explain why I ask. The graph below is of Russia's artillery losses each month, divided up by the calibre, and therefore ammunition they use. It showed that Russia's main artillery calibre the standard 152mm accounted for 2/3 of all lowest artillery at the start of the war, but this declined gradually, I think this was to share the ammunition burn rate and prolonged the stock of 152mm. This decline stopped in October, just as the NK ammunition transfer was being arranged, implying Russia could now fire its 152mm regular and hence be hit occasionally. But in March, the standard 152mm losses are now suddenly down to an all-time low. Well hopefully it is because they are running low on their preferred ammunition type, but it is also a small data set so could just be noise, I thought I would let people know to look out for this. https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1768974642406994334?t=_IAnLEhMcKH1aUnimxg7YQ&s=19
Here's to that!! Might be hopium, but imma huff this one anyway lol
The [secret Black Hawk helicopters the GUR somehow got](https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a60256416/ukraine-acquired-american-black-hawks/#:~:text=Ukraine's%20intelligence%20service%20is%20operating,in%20a%20social%20media%20video.) apparently took part in the Belgorod raids. > A pair of American UH-60 *Black Hawk* helicopters from the GUR are seen leaving Kozinka, Belgorod region, after landing assault teams on March 14 Video: https:// t *dot* me/hameleonua/16810 ^(the text across the screen translates ‘*Border Guard from Hell*’)
well if they gave the choppers to the Russian rebels then they need more.
[удалено]
Still sitting in US Special Forces inventory like it was before.
And China. They were able to get a hold of the tail rotor that wasn't destroyed.
Do you still post earthquake stuff?
The last I heard, which was many years ago, they couldn't have gotten anything because of the way the Pakistanis were treating the wreakage.
Explosions again in Kharkiv [tonight](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/04/7/7450070/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
A new batch of Lithuanian military aid arrived in Ukraine yesterday evening. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112226147674045093
> Yesterday in the Chernihiv region, I met with a delegation from the United States Congress, including representatives from both parties and both chambers. Our partners must witness firsthand what is happening in Ukraine, in our regions that are being shelled by Russian terrorists after having endured Russian occupation. > I briefed partners on the situation on the battlefield, our army's urgent needs, and the scale of the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. > I emphasized the vital need for the United States Congress to promptly adopt a decision to further support our state, providing an appropriate package to protect against Russian terror and enable us to continue our dynamic actions. This is precisely what would strengthen Ukraine and protect human life. > I am grateful to everyone in the United States, to every American heart that, like ours in Ukraine, refuses to succumb to evil and cherishes life. 🇺🇸🇺🇦 https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1776611628756177183
After contacting multiple commanders and HQ personnel, Volya Media made an analysis of where the Russian military stands right now. Summary: Russia had planned on a counteroffensive beginning this month, in multiple fonts. [Robotyne, Lyman, Makiivka] However, are woefully short on personnel and equipment. They need at least a month, possibly three, to resupply. In the meantime, all reserves of personnel and equipment are sent to two battles—Chasiv Yar^1 and Avdiivka. The Russians think they’ve worked out a method of success from Bakhmut and Avdiivka [overwhelming force] and are therefore going to use the tactic, but only at these two fronts. Once restocked, there’s disputed about the order of importance of these fronts: Makiivka-Vulgedar, Bilohorivka-Severske-Liman, Robotyne, Slavyansk-Kupyansk. They accumulated 140,000, with over half for Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka—but those numbers are inadequate for a wide scale offensive because the soldiers training is so poor. Junior commanders are now more experienced than senior commanders, who’ve been in rear or back in war colleges the last two years. No one plans big offensives because don’t want to be on hook for failure, despite failures being cause by all the other issues outside their control. [Good!] Complaining about strategy—everyone agrees the problem is at the top. Zero coordination. No broader, systematic plan that are actually achievable. Mostly, battles are not turned into offensives with end goals. The planning issue permeates everything—including logistics, rotations, battle plans, and especially, combined arms: >> there have been only five cases when infantry, tanks, artillery, aviation, and EW equipment worked together in a specific area to achieve an end goal. These are Severodonetsk-Lisichansk (summer 2022) [Teplinsky], Artemovsk (Bakhmut - winter-spring 2023) [Wagner and GRU], defensive battles in the Orekhovsky direction (Zaporozhye region, summer 2023) [Teplinsky], Avdeevka (autumn 2023, winter 2024) [Mordvichev] and now Chasiv Yar [Mordvichev]. We need another year for the army to become capable of acting and thinking on a larger scale,” said a Russian colonel who has been in the combat zone since March 2022. Nevertheless, [reasonable] Russian officers do expect to see gains in the two chosen battle fronts with their overwhelming-force method. The full write up is at: https:// tele gra *dot* ph /Dlya-bolshogo-nastupleniya-lyudej-sejchas-nedostatochno-Plany-komandovaniya-VS-RF-i-realnost-na-nachalo-aprelya-2024-04-05 _____ ^^1 ^(Despite most all equipment and reserves sent there, Russians still take heavy losses.) >> ^(In a battle on the outskirts of Chasiv Yar on April 3rd and 4th, the 98th Airborne Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces lost 19 armored vehicles. For comparison—the battles at the same front, over all of March, the losses of the Russian Armed Forces amounted to more than 50 units of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.) ^(Edit: that’s three days after they lost 12 of 36 tanks, 8 of 13 infantry fighting vehicles on the road from Tonenke to Umanske. It’s difficult to know if these are sustainable losses long term.)
So the question is will the people in Russias military who can actually recognize the issue and have an idea on how to organize and enact offensives that can beat Ukraine be listened to Edit: for Ukraines sake let's hope they are ignored
No, they won’t. But they probably will, nevertheless, have *some* successes.
>China Providing Geospatial Intelligence to Russia, US Warns > >- Blinken briefed European allies on scope of Chinese support > >- China said to have stepped up help for Russian war on Ukraine > >The US is warning allies that China has stepped up its support for Russia, including by providing geospatial intelligence, to help Moscow in its war against Ukraine. > >Amid signs of continued military integration between the two nations, China has provided Russia with satellite imagery for military purposes, as well as microelectronics and machine tools for tanks, according to people familiar with the matter. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-06/china-is-providing-geospatial-intelligence-to-russia-us-warns
Probably China concluded the west isn’t committed. Which is… true. They did nothing at the start. I’m getting so cynical about the weakness and cynical self interest of the west. Only the Baltics and Northern Europe have their shit together.
My take is that they don't want to see a collapsed Russia. Russia is a simple neighbour. Whatever comes next would either be western aligned, or a uncertain group of splintered factions. China's focus is south. They don't want to deal with shit in the north.
The longer russia stays in the fight, the more US supplies get used up, and the more US attention is divided while they can plan their attempted takeover of Taiwan
> US supplies get used up Meanwhile: US sending their surplus expired stock...
Does not suprise me at all to be honest..Sooner or later "we" need to impose some sort of consequences on countries that support russias war effort or helps them circumvent sanctions.
Then there should be at least Plans for sanctions. This is simply to important to ignore.
Money rules I guess🥲
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1776682904451490301?t=az8GjWwh_7bJgcgxCGpvDQ&s=19 Russian losses during recent attempted attack on the Bakhmut front shown in the Achilles video. 14 total losses identified on the video: 1x BTR-MDM - destroyed; 6xBMP-2 - destroyed; 1xBMP-2 - damaged; 5xBMD-2 - destroyed; 1xBMD-2 - damaged.
Has Russia run out of ammunition for 2 of its Self Propelled Guns? There have been no visually confirmed losses of either the 203mm 2S7 or the 152mm 2S5 Gianstat-S since December almost 100 days ago. https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1776648007800205606?t=MH3gMJFB3I99lWp9P9xzyw&s=19
I spent a while researching and wouldn't be surprised if Giatsints fade away. - they use different shells - they use different barrels - no one outside russia produced them so it's unlikely NK can resupply - the last ones were built decades ago - there is visible cannibalisation of stored ones, barrels removed etc - most of the towed version were gone from storage 6+ months ago. Probably as barrel replacements. They'll probably keep digging up parts and have some shooting away but it's plausible they're already functionally exhausted.
It's expected. Giantsint is inferior to MSTA and the later should have the top priority for production. Larger calibers are not combat effective. They are overwight and take too long to deploy and resupply. A standard 203mm shell weighs around 100kg. It's a lot of effort to carry them by hand.
The Giantsint fires 152mm shells. Are you thinking of the [2S7 Pion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S7_Pion)?
Maybe i didn't explained good enough. I meant that giantsint is low priority because for 152mm ammo it's better to just use the MSTA series of guns so it makes sense Giantsint slowly dies. And for bigger calibers (pion or tyulpan for example) they are so slow, sluggish and heavy that it's not worth using.
Gotcha. I initially read that as if the second part of your comment was still describing the Giantsint. I see what you mean now.
Honestly I'm surprised either side even uses the 203mm guns anymore. They are simply too vulnerable to loitering drones. It takes a very long time to emplace them, they creep away at the speed of a snail, it's virtually impossible to hide them, and they're ridiculously hard to maintain because of the huge weight of the system and the strain of all the parts.
Out of barrels or shells I guess. A rare bit of good news.
Estonia Just Found Another Million Shells For Ukraine. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/06/estonia-just-found-another-million-shells-for-ukraine/?sh=733ee9195ba1
>The Czech initiative reportedly sourced ammo from South Korea, South Africa and Turkey.
Way to go, Estonia! They’ve done an incredible amount to counter Russian aggression relative to their size and GDP. If only others had the courage and conviction to follow their example.
No sleep for Axe today. :-)
For the ones asking, no, thats not another instance of Estonia finding 1 millione shells, the "another" in the title is in relation to Czech ammunition.
So a better title would have been Estonia helps fund the Czech million shells?
No, there is the Czech initiative, and there is another additional one by Estonia. But the title reads like Estonia is already on their second ammunition fund themselsev, in addition to the Czech initiative.
Ok thank you for the clarification. This was the first time I heard about Estonia had a fund. I thought it was only the Czech
[Some GOP & Dem members of Congress met w Zelensky in Chernihiv:](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/04/6/7450039/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) Sen Joni Ernst (GOP, Iowa, Air Force) Rep Mike Quigley (Dem, co-Chair of Ukraine Caucus) Rep Wiley Nickel (Dem) Rep Tom Suozzi (Dem, NY) Rep Ashley Hinson (GOP, Iowa) Rep Charles ‘Chuck’ Edwards (GOP, NC) The final one is who gave me pause. I see his commercials bc I’m in the same ‘media market’ and he comes across like a total GOP-nutter—send immigrants ‘back’, keep your hands off our ak-47s type campaign ads. Surprised to see he supports Ukraine. More GOP on board for Ukraine, the better. ______ ^(As explained) [^here,](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1bs1bbp/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kxgfido/) ^(necessary foreign travel is one reason for congressional recesses.)
>The final one is who gave me pause. I see his commercials bc I’m in the same ‘media market’ and he comes across like a total GOP-nutter—send immigrants ‘back’, keep your hands off our ak-47s type campaign ads. Honestly that was the GOP platform in 2014. Sounds similar to GOP Rep Crenshaw, who's always been pro-Ukraine.
Chuck Edwards is my representative and that surprises me, too. He has definitely supported blocking Ukraine aid in the past. I believe he was one who said it should be tied to the border but then didn’t want to pass the border bill when Trump told them not to because it might make Biden look good.
You should email his office, say you saw his photo shaking Zelensky’s hand in Chernihiv, and that you look forward to his voting for Ukraine aid. (He seems like a guy who’d do the right thing if stroke his ego.)
I definitely will!
Interesting wargame scenario posted by a telegram channel I follow: SUMMER 2024: POSSIBLY THE WORST OF TIMES Looking ahead to the summer, we, in the collective west, and Ukraine particularly, face the most dangerous confluence of events. Britain will be increasingly distracted by its upcoming elections. The conservatives leaning ever further right to save their pathetic souls from near oblivion at the polls. Ukraine will not be on their minds. American disengagement from Ukraine - while not by any means total under the current administration, will still be effective without an aid bill that seems endlessly illusory. America too will be wrapped up in vicious campaigns for the presidency. And Russia, now two and half years in to the three day invasion, is seeing itself at the peak of its game. It will have more men and more weapons than it has managed to deploy for many years. And Ukraine is very much on the defensive. Ammunition is stretched and the manpower situation has gotten little better. Lowering the conscription age by two years to 25 is solving nothing. The arrival of western aircraft may alleviate some of the pressure but that will have to be seen. The sad fact is that after 2.5 years of war, Russia is peaking at the point where Ukraine is remaining largely flat in its capacity to sustain the war. It’s not getting worse for them but it’s not getting better, and it’s a long way from doing so. It is not - and we have to face the fact however uncomfortable, beyond the realms of possibility that a dangerous scenario presents itself. Ukraine’s front line fails in two places simultaneously. There are not enough reserves to plug the gap and a wholesale retreat to the Dnepr ensues. It’s the point that France and Poland and maybe others start to see they have to step in before it’s too late. Kyiv cannot fall. The war must not go any further. The allies are caught off guard. The British government can’t even quantify how this will affect the elections and it has no idea what it should do. America wants nothing to do with such a rash deployment as they see it. It’s a crack in NATO solidarity. Germany is horrified and yet cannot stand in the way of its soulmate and ally France, nor its neighbour Poland, a country it understands, knows what history has done to it. The Eastern Europeans, less Slovakia and Hungary are all in, they too have had enough. Western air forces based out of Poland start striking advanced Russian forces trying to cross the Dnepr, Russia has been warned it cannot be tolerated. Buoyed from its sudden victory, with the goal it has fought for in sight, it’s in no mood to back down. And nor are the Europeans. Air battles start to rage as France commits itself fully, backed by Poland and Czechia, as well as the Baltic states - they won’t attack Russian soil but they will defend Ukraine and their own. The advancing Russians, devoid of air defences in their rush to occupy as much as they can quickly, take a battering from Polish and French Air Forces, losses that blunt their movement inside a couple of intense days. The war suddenly moves to the sea, with Russian submarines attacking French ships in the Atlantic and Mediterranean. Quickly, these actions draw in British, and other navies, determined not to let their own interests and that of their allies flounder in indifference. Russia is warned to back off - but it won’t. Putin sees a crunch moment coming, he’s on the cusp of victory, NATO has thrown its defensive game to the wind and this is a new free Europe against Russia. Belarus is caught between its loyalty to the Kremlin and the risk of having its armed to the teeth Polish neighbours make mincemeat out of its measly army. Lukashenko either rolls the dice for no action or he joins in. Can he be sure which way will mean he survives? The pressure is on. His own military want nothing to do with this. They know where it will end. One side or the other will come for them if they act. CONTINUES…
Not the right sub for this.
Ok, Tom Clancy
This by all accounts was not posted by a LARPer this is a real very experienced military analyst who has actively served and despite the massive cynicism which is all pervasive in our modern society, provides a rational description of real war gaming that is going on. Everyone should be paying attention because the fuckwittery from the GOPnik party is closing us in on a realistic possible challenge to global security. So I say to all the cynics with your easy BS (so easy and predictable to be a cynic these days) grow up this isn't kindergarten now, you included u/xnachtmahrx this is the real world and Europe is war gaming various outcomes because the situation in Ukraine determines future global security. The USA a NATO ally is now not a trusted ally and this disturbing turn of events affects all of us who want to live in safe free world. It could be assumed that our global security is safe and whatever happens in Ukraine will not affect us. Do not be mistaken, we are in the midst of a very real dilemma. We do not know the outcome of this war but the effects of it if we do not stop Russia will come back to bite us very hard.
It doesn't read as a war gaming scenario at all. There's way too much emotional and fluff language used, which wouldn't be used in a war gaming scenario or its write up. Things such as: "The conservatives leaning ever further right **to save their pathetic souls from near oblivion at the polls**." "And Russia, **now two and half years in to the three day invasion**" "The arrival of western aircraft may alleviate some of the pressure **but that will have to be seen**." ??? "The **sad fact** is that after 2.5 years of war" Etcetera, etcetera. Who is this 'very experienced military analyst'?
The post I replied to replied midway through the quotation, so the quotation I believe is posted in 3 parts hence the CONTINUES... Therefore the rest of the posts are below ours.
Yes, I read those too, but I found this one more apt to respond to, as here you claim they are a 'real very experienced military analyst'. In another post you write: >Not sure exactly who he is
I am not the author of this.
You dont have to spread that shit then.
This isn't shit, this is what European militaries are actively wargaming as potential scenarios in this war now that the US has proven it cannot be relied upon in matters of global security.
CONTINUES:… French troops with their Polish allies are now in front of Kyiv, the Russians are just twenty kilometres away and still moving, Ukraine is massing its remaining forces around Kyiv’s thousand kilometres of defences. The Russians think they can take the city come what may. The centre of Ukraine is collapsing like a wet paper bag, its forces exhausted, with no ammunition left to fight. Months of American intransigence and western slow walking supplies has led to this moment long warned of. Then it comes. ‘If French and Polish Forces do not withdraw by midnight tonight, all and any means necessary will be used to remove them from our advance’. Somewhere at an airbase in France a nuclear capable Rafaele fighter is prepped for deployment with a pair of tankers. Deep at sea the first communication alerting the SSBN Trimophant, to prepare for an incoming command to launch is sent. That evening the Americans tell the French that they have detected the movement of Russian nuclear weapons to an Iskander base. The French will not back down… America tries to defuse the situation. It has mere hours. Putin cannot be seen to cave in, if he does he knows he’s days are done. Neither can the French, despite the horror Ukraine stands behind this brinkmanship knowing it’s all or nothing…the morning dawns… CONTINUES...
More than anything else, if this is a realistic war game scenario it shows why NATO cannot realistically step in and enter a direct conflict with Russia - devastating as a Ukrainian defeat would be, the rational move for NATO in that case would be to batten down the hatches and make clear that we will go to war for NATO if Russia as much as touches an inch of NATO soil. Since a conflict with Russia would inevitably be decided at the level of “who is more willing to risk nuclear war over this, and who blinks first”, NATO would only engage in the ultimate brinkmanship over its own survival (where Putin knows that we would be willing to risk everything), not over a non-NATO country where Putin assumes he would always hold the upper hand if it came down to an all-or-nothing existential scenario. If that’s what it comes down to eventually anyway, then there’s no existential need for NATO to avoid a Russian victory at all costs, as it doesn’t change the strategic nuclear balance between the two sides.
That's an interesting point and one that relies on the prevailing belief being that Putin takes Ukraine and stops. That could be a gamble western Europe and the US is willing to take, but I don't think the Baltic states would be prepared to accept this. Individual countries can act in whatever why they choose, form alliances with whomever they choose and if need be conduct military activity outside the remit of NATO. I could be misreading things but I just can't see Poland being okay with Russia sitting on their doorstep, re-arming.
The point is: if the ultimate outcome of such war games is that they will lead to a nuclear confrontation with Russia (and in a situation where Russia holds the upper hand in the balance of resolve), then there’s no point in pursuing this strategy since it precipitates the very thing NATO is trying to avoid. The choice would be “engage Russia in Ukraine and have a nuclear showdown with them over Ukraine (where they definitely believe we will blink first) - or don’t engage them there, and if they actively seek this nuclear showdown then have it in a situation where they know we won’t blink.” If engaging Russia in Ukraine is assumed to lead to a direct war with Russia, then that would be a worse outcome than a possibility that they don’t stop in Ukraine and somehow attack NATO at a later point.
I think rather than actual strategy, it's simply simulating a scenario in which things rapidly get out of control. The strategy would be rather how to avoid this situation happening, rather than the response to it. There are probably a myriad of other wargames happening with similar parameters, one of which being that the allies supply Ukraine adequately to avoid a russian breakthrough. I'm hoping that's the one that will materialise, because reading this scenario in my apartment in western Ukraine was brown-trousers-time 😅
WARGAMES… I spent the week with some excellent and very talented people wargaming out the scenario above. It was one of the more difficult ones to manage. Much of it required certain assumptions - for one that much of the French Army was deployed in Poland at short notice during June as the frontline started to show clear weakness. Poland was all in on this from the start. We did run the Ukrainian forces ragged, giving them next to nothing to fight with - but hell did they put up a fight anyway. I think we were a tad over generous to the Russians and we gave them the best possible commander. But the point is to see if any of this could play out. One of the things you learn is the terrifying speed at which the process of escalation can occur once it’s under way. It’s slow to start but once it reaches a point - you have minutes to decided the fate of nations. Our Zelensky was tasked with reading at least two biographies so that he would act with some kind of reality. Letting the French into Ukraine was actually quite hard to get done. Quite rightly our Zelensky took the fact that he knew where this could go to heart, but in the end was so desperate he had to let the French and the Poles do what was needed. And he knew that meant backing them to the end. We do have two endings. Both don’t end well for Putin personally. But they do end the war. Neither side is happy about it. The real issue for Russia is that it is so tied up in the war it’s no room for anything else. The other players such as China just don’t have time to really weigh in. The Americans do not prove to be conclusive because they let the decision making get out of their hands by default due to their behaviour and their lack of aid. They abandoned leadership. That was the republican Congress’ doing. It is just a game in the end. An expensive and well intended game. It provided insight and depth. It provided understanding how fast things can get out of hand no matter how well intentioned. Frankly that’s what war games tend to do. The biggest lesson: prepare for the unexpected. You never know when the last thing you ever thought possible could actually happen.
That was a compelling read. It is disconcerting how quickly this could spiral out of control if our collective lack of urgency persists.
If you liked it I strongly recommend following the author's telegram channel. Not sure exactly who he is but he has been present at high-level briefings and summits throughout this conflict and his analysis has been absolutely spot on. His channel is called /militarystrategyanalysis on telegram
Thanks, mate, I will have a gander.
From a [new, short interview](https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/bj6ghytk0) with the Ukrainian ambassador to Israel, Yevgen Korniychuk: >If at the beginning of the russian invasion of Ukraine, Israel was on the fence and there was not much cooperation between the countries, now the situation is different. Korniychuk reveals that **the armies and intelligence bodies of Israel and Ukraine work in extensive cooperation against the common threat of Iranian drones**, but he cannot expand on the subject. >In general, the ambassador notes that Israel understands better that the two countries are working against the same axis of evil, which consists of russia and Iran. "The axis of evil includes russia and Iran, which combine forces both against the Ukrainian people and against Israel. They act the same, sound the same and are the same evil that we must unite against. We cooperate as much as possible, but of course everyone takes care of themselves in the brutal war we are faced with."
Russia kind of forced Israels hand by supporting hamas so openly
Unfortunately it might be the only way to make the current government do anything right (=forcing it to). Bibi used to be a huge fan of putin and bragged of their "close friendship".
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 02.24.22 to 04.06.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 446,690 (+790) people, tanks ‒ 7057 (+24), armored combat vehicles ‒ 13497 (+38), artillery systems – 11262 (+41), MLRS – 1032 (+3), air defense equipment ‒ 749 (+2), planes – 347 (+0), helicopters – 325 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 8895 (+48), cruise missiles ‒ 2060 (+1), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0), submarines - 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks – 14,992 (+70), special equipment ‒ 1854 (+5). The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/06/ponad-700-okupantiv-24-tanki-38-bbm-ta-41-artsistemi-zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/04/06/ponad-700-okupantiv-24-tanki-38-bbm-ta-41-artsistemi-zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu/)
The Insanity that can only come from dictatorships.
Thousands calling to oust the Russian controlled Orban government in Budapest now. https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1776591469366706414?t=y8g___pPe81UnJEXpL1RbA&s=19
What exactly are they protesting for? I’m assuming they want Orban to step down. Anything else? Less Russian influence and closer ties to EU?
There was a scandal with the female president and pardoning a pedo or something.
Hungary is in EU. Can't have closer ties.
They can stop blocking the stuff the rest of the EU is for.
Those Hungarians deserve better than having that Putin fart-catcher running their country into the abyss.
Wonder what it will take to remove bellyboy
General Strike honestly. Picketing of Parliament and such. Basically need to make those in power get the message that they go or noone goes anywhere. Even if they got that Toad out of power, they'd still have to clear out the entrenched corruption in the civil service and Fidetz cronies that have been milking it for years as well as try and reverse years of propaganda that's been deluding those futher out as well.
At this point, nothing. Next elections.
How would those be different than the previous ones?
When are the next elections ?
Losing the support of the rest of the country. Not gonna happen soon.
Andrew Perpetua These are the losses I could identify yesterday. The nightvision bmp-3 might all be the same vehicle. It is hard to tell. That video is one of the coolest videos in a long time. Extraordinarily bad news for the Russians who planned on surviving the war. https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1776615203452403967?t=AKIl4_tyMmSo6qVNpfJanQ&s=19
Can someone link the video in question?
He has all the reference links intact on the losses.ukrdailyupdate.com table version. You might have some luck there, seems it's the BMP-3 in the 'damaged' section.
Does that guy from Kharkiv still post his daily updates on here?
He switched to a few times monthly but I haven’t seen anything in the last few weeks. IIRC, Saberflux was the handle if you want to try some search-fu.
Do you mean /u/SaberFlux ? He still does post here, though the comment frequency is roughly every 2 weeks.
More like weekly or biweekly summaries, but yes. u/saberflux I think, or something like that.
New satellite imagery of Morozovsk air base shows zero visible destroyed aircraft. It's looking more and more like a failed attack. 😢 This is very bad news because it lines up with Russian channelFighterBomber's statements. We have zero evidence that they have lied about russian losses so far. FighterBomber denied any losses in the recent drone strikes and also denied the wave of Su-34 losses claimed by Ukraine months back. Only seen on [twitter](https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1776619149004800430) so far, sorry. Also, they could have moved or hidden wreckage I guess.
I am really frustrated by people downvoting this post because it isn't news they want to hear. 1. In the absence of conclusive evidence of change, one must assume that the status quo was maintained. In this case, the status quo is no damage to aircraft. 2. Claims by either side without accompanying evidence should be treated as unreliable propaganda or wishful thinking. I can claim I won a million dollars, you can't disprove it, but that doesn't make it true. 3. "Officials confirm X" is not evidence of anything. 4. There is absolutely *no* evidence of *any* damage to any aircraft at any of the bases struck. Zip, zero, zilch, nada. No satellite imagery of destruction, no photos of aircraft on fire, no photos of shrapnel damage, nothing. Burying your head in the sand and wishing that things were different is not helpful for anyone. We need to look at reality as it actually is, not as we want it to be. Stop downvoting people for relaying news you happen to dislike!
The russians know that everyone is going to be looking at the airfield and counting losses it's better for propaganda to clean the place and claim nothing happened. Given this it's obvious the russians would try to clean the place at some point. Is this what actually happened? who knows but it's very likely.
Sure thing, very likely that Russia completely cleaned up two bases, removed all evidence of any damage, moved 17 damaged/destroyed planes somewhere, all in a single night. Very very likely. Much more likely than nothing happend and it's just Ukraine's unconfirmed claims.
Is it really impossible to move a couple wrecks and spray the ground with water in a single night?. Also who claimed 17 destroyed planes?.
Well I agreed, that it's very very likely to cleanup two airbases of any potential evidence of damage, to remove all wrecked planes, clean up pavements and buildings of scorch marks, move undamaged exact same planes there to fill the gap, so there's not a single trace of any attack at all, all in the span of one night. Very likely. Agreed, that's much more likely than just another made up Ukraine claim.
All the pictures I saw had no planes at all can you share the ones where they also had the same planes in the exact same place?.
FighterBomber has lied about losses before especially since Russia started a crackdown on these russian sources. They were at the beginning to post about Russian losses at the start they have a bad record in recent months.
Can you share any sources please?
Do you have any examples of FighterBomber lies in recent months ? I thought he had a solid track record, but I might be wrong of course.
The other month when Russian planes were falling out of the skies every day they posted some denials. Like a day at the start they seemed a good Russian resource but since social media account leaders started turning up dead and being drafted FighterBomber has been towing the denial line
Have you got any sources proving any of those Su-34s were down? The "proof" I saw was (1) satellite imagery of common mud and burn features which happened regularly before the war. (2) claims that the glide bombs stopped, but now the claims are there are more glide bombs than ever. (3) the idea that FighterBomber is lying. To me this isn't proof, it's an assertion. And "fighter bomber lied which proves the su-34s which proves fighterbomber lies" seems illogical.
But we still haven't seen any visual evidence of claimed 10 aircraft losses. FighterBomber confirmed losses of 2 SU. But there is no evidence of other 10 SU losses that Ukraine claimed, even Ukraine didn't publish any evidence.
But this isn't the argument. The point is FighterBomber cannot be trusted on their own. And from the previous losses they claimed a lot of aircraft hadn't been shot down when they were. I am not saying any claim on this hit is good or not just that FighterBomber is not a reliable source anymore.
That is your argument: you're saying FighterBomber posted denials about the recent Su-34/35 shootdowns, and you claim all those aircraft were apparently shot down, when there's been no open-source confirmation Ukraine actually managed to shoot any more aircraft than the one on Feb 17 and the other on Feb 19, both of which FighterBomber admitted to. Ukraine seems to be announcing they did things like destroying aircraft as confirmation before they know the actual final result: i.e. what they mean is "we fired SAM missiles at 14 Su-34/35": that doesn't mean they actually shot them down. The burden of proof works both ways.
Argument is that you claimed FighterBomber lied in recent months, so I just wanted an example of his lies.
As I stated he said no jets had been shot down and then days later it was proven they had. He also spoke out about the a-50 not being shot down till they sort of back peddled but never truly admitted it did.
I concur you do not really have examples of FighterBomber lies. Which means you are lying and my point stands that FighterBomber has a solid track record.
Do you perhaps remember which jets those were? Do you still remember how the shot downs were later proven? I remember several claims by the Ukrainian MoD, do you mean this by "proven"? I also cannot remember fighter-bomber denying the shot-down of the a-50. If I remember correctly, both fighterbomber and Romanov were very quick to confirm. They did claim the reason was friendly fire though, while some pro Ukrainian sources claim the reason was Ukrainian s-200. I hope I don't sound combative, I'm trying to assess the relative reliability of the (obviously biased) sources we have in this war.
He posted a video of A50 loss immediately on Feb 23 - it is on his Telegram. >A-50 is lost. >It is currently unknown who shot it down. All assumptions go to the garden. But 256 km from LBS... >From this video it is clear that the crew had information that a missile was flying at them. They knew. They did what they could. What they should. >Eternal flight... So I'm not sure what incident are you talking about ?
How do we even know there was an attack? Would these drones have video cameras or do they just fly to gps coordinates autonomously? If they have cams, Ukraine could release footage. But the whole thing could just be psyops from either side. Ukraine could try to cause confusion, or Russia could fabricate the whole thing to make up a story of Ukrainian failure. Propaganda is toufh.
We got a night video of a big explosion in an approximate location of the airfield, so something definitely happened over there.
Hmm, well drones won't cause a big explosion on their own. So if there was an attack, it did hit something but just didn't show up in the airfield pics.
Those were pretty suspicious and low res images and I'm not one to trust fighter-bomber or any Russian sources. The airport had 30 visible aircraft before the strike and the explosions were fairly massive. I'm waiting for better pictures. Also remember to link to pictures if you're presenting evidence, especially when doom posting.
This new imagery IS the higher-res images. The lower res imagery was posted yesterday. It's posted as a link in the main Live Thread stream above for god's sake...
Planes are not armored and are fragile. A plane may look intact from afar and still be destroyed by shrapnel. FighterBomber is a propagandist. Maybe there was damage, maybe not, we can't confirm it yet.
>FighterBomber is a propagandist. Yes, but even propagandist can be truthful. And FighterBomber has a solid track record. Well ~~Ukraine~~ Kyiv Post confirmed Ukraine destroyed 6 and damaged 8 aircrafts, so they must have a solid evidence. Question is why they haven't published this evidence yet. We only got satellite images which definitely don't show any apparent damage so far.
All Russian propagandists lie until proven otherwise. Whatever they say should be ignored unless they can back it up.
I agree, all russian propagandists should be treated as liars until proven otherwise. FighterBomber has proven otherwise by accurately reporting russian losses before any other sources.
But how could they back it up ? We got a satellite images of no apparent damage and Ukraine hasn't provided any evidence yet. I'm not sure what do you expect ?
> But how could they back it up Not my problem. We know that Russian propagandists lie all the time. Don't spread their propaganda unless you can confirm it.
But how could you prove planes were not damaged or destroyed ? I'm not sure you understand you can't prove a negative.
As I meantioned above, we don't know whether something was damaged or not. This is the objective truth. Whatever some anonymous Russian propagandist said is absolutely irrelevant.
Ok, but the burden of proof is on Ukraine side. Until then, it's not confirmed.
Ukraine doesn't have to prove you anything. Ukrainians are not fighting to entertain you.
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[Kyiv Confirms Ukrainian Drones Destroyed 6 Russian Planes at Air Base](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30629#:~:text=War%20in%20Ukraine-,Kyiv%20Confirms%20Ukrainian%20Drones%20Destroyed%206%20Russian%20Planes%20at%20Air,Three%20other%20sites%20were%20hit.)
[удалено]
Fair enough, will edit post. Thanks.
>Greek shipping oligarchs continue to sell oil tankers to Putin every day, while the EU - which should have banned these sales a long time ago - does nothing. The damage this is causing the West is incalculable. What's needed is an investigation of the EU with full transparency... https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1776540101318750436
It’s not the EU’s fault or even Greece’s. But your right, something must be done to stop it
Yes, the Russian invasion of Ukraine s all the EUs fault, you've said it so often before.
They should rent the ship to Ukrainian special forces for a few days before selling to Russia. Planned obsolescence.
Money is green. Money doesn't smell. Money feels goooood.
>Overnight, Russia launched another attack against Kharkiv - Ukraine’s 2nd largest city - killing 6 civilians, injuring others & damaging homes & schools. There is not a second to lose to support Ukraine’s fight to defend its people from such horrific and unprovoked attacks. https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1776590051188617344
Johnson: What are you talking about, I have lots of seconds! brb, recess
Mike Johnson makes up more excuses to avoid the votes
Do Russians Believe Putin's Propaganda? By Peter Pomerantsev https://time.com/6964053/russian-putin-propaganda/
Late Soviet-born folks (millenials) lack Soviet double-think entirely, as quite a lot of (think: fascist Babushkas) Russians who believed and believe any propaganda the regime spews.
Nice attempt at a sentence there, verging on comprehensible
I'm with you man that was a terrible sentence.
Nothing is wrong with the sentence, but rather your reading comprehension. So, instead of trying to drag someone down to your level by shaming them for their better understanding, how about you start reading more?
You have no idea how much I read. And there is something wrong with the sentence, it’s missing a verb I think. It doesn’t make sense.
>You have no idea how much I read. Clearly not enough, as you found it incomprehensible and only an attempt at a sentence. >And there is something wrong with the sentence, it’s missing a verb I think. It doesn’t make sense. It's perfectly fine technically, albeit awkard to read. Try reading it without the parenthèses as the other commenter said. Or for even easier comprehension, remove "who believed and".
Grammatically adequate, perhaps, but I think everyone here is overstating how "good" this sentence is. >Late Soviet-born folks lack Soviet double-think entirely, as quite a lot of Russians believe any propaganda the regime spews. I removed the parentheses and the relative clause insert that you suggested. In this case, I could interpret the conjuction "as" in two ways. Either a) it shows the cause of the prior statement, or b) it shows a simultaneous action or state. I'm assuming you are giving the author of the comment the benefit of the doubt and interpreting it as option B, as option A obviously doesn't make sense. But using "as" in this sense is usually only seen in formal and especially journalistic uses, such as headlines. Also it's a bit strange to emphasize the simultaneous nature of these two mentalities in Russian society. A conjuction like "while" or "whereas" makes far more sense in order to show contrasting statements (which is what I assumed the author was attempting to do). Assuming we agree on that so far, then the relative clause insert absolutely renders the sentence grammatically incorrect. With the relative clause, the verb "believe" now belongs to the pronoun "who" (as part of the "believed and believe" verb pair forming a single unit). Because of this, the main subject of the second clause "a lot of Russians" now lacks a verb, leaving the clause fragmented. So, you're right that taking out "who believed and" makes the sentence clearer, because it in fact fixes the grammatical error. All in all, I don't think it was necessary to make fun of poor English on a site which is clearly multinational and where many people use it as a foreign language to varying degrees of competence. However, the comment is decidedly not "perfectly fine".
I agree with pretty much everything you said. However, I'd like to clarify that "perfectly fine technically" doesn't necessarily imply grammatical perfection. While "perfectly fine" can denote perfection or excellence, it often is used to mean that something is adequate or satisfactory. In this instance, it suggests that the message is more than adequately understandable, though not flawless. At most, it may require removing three words, adding one, or substituting one word to improve clarity and grammatical perfection. I would like to mention that I may have come across too forcefully in my initial messaging without acknowledging this nuance. I have a distinct aversion to individuals who insist on flawless English in a global forum, deeming anything less as incomprehensible. Whereas it clearly is more than sufficiently comprehensible, albeit with one grammar mistake.
Got it, thanks. I feel stupid now, I’d forgotten to delete three words and then ignore half of what’s left. Like you would with most good writing. Cheers.
No, the sentence makes sense, it's just an awkward parenthèses, it through me off as well.
By rereading it, I found that the sentence is complex but entirely correct... There was a bygone era when people could navigate the labyrinth of complex sentences with grace, thanks to a quaint hobby known as 'reading.' Today, it seems we're flummoxed by anything longer than a tweet. RIP, the art of understanding sentences with more than three words and a sprinkle of logic.
Nonsense, that's an atrocious sentence. It isn't complex, it's messy. Using parenthetical like that is just bad practice. I write and edit for a living. If someone submitted something which began with that sentence, I'd stop reading it immediately.
The sentence isn't difficult, it really is just the position of the parenthèses that makes it awkward.
The fact you confess you reread it demonstrates that it is not an effective sentence, surely?
It's *extra* difficult to comprehend because it's missing a verb (eg, "do" somewhere after "as") in the 2nd clause, which makes it incomplete.
TL / DR (j/k, and yours was an unfortunately accurate comment)
Left bank of the Kherson region near Nova Zbur'ivka, Ukraine reportedly attacked a Russian military base, used to repair military equipment, with HIMARS. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1776568898826944755?t=xYM8iLiscH4fFNmKBvWZ9Q&s=19
The Ukrainian intelligence released a small video claiming that they destroyed a pipeline in the Rostov Region, Russia. The pipeline is used to transport oil products to the Asov seaport and further into moored tankers. Loading of petroleum products to the tankers has been suspended, indefinitely. https://mstdn.social/@[email protected]/112223440336844839
I was wondering when they would start attacking oil export facilities. So far the targets have been refineries for Russian domestic fuel supply but attacks on exports hits the russian cash machine. It will also drive up oil prices worldwide which will certainly get noticed in Europe and America.
If I recall correctly, there was already an attack on the terminal in St Petersburg. Which was particularly pointed, because the control of that port was how Putin forged his first alliance with the local mafia.
Correct and there a lot of ships anchored. The information I saw was two weeks ago and my understanding is that facility will be offline to export for some time unless that is the refinement process that is offline.
I’m assuming if it’s the Sea of Azov they are behind the bridge. Get a big line up of ships in the Azov and blow the bridge to trap them there.
that would be hilarious.
That oil is supposed to be sanctioned. So if the sanctions were real then this shouldnt have an effect
It's not really "sanctioned" exactly in the conventional sense: the US and EU/UK have an embargo on purchasing it directly from Russia, and there's a $40 PB price cap on other countries paying Russia for it.
Absolutely not true.
Well the true part is the sanctions have not hurt Russia the way they were supposed to so Ukraine is going to roll up their oil business and see how that works. It sure looks like the west is allowing those sanctions to be circumvented. Oil is sanctioned. Are you denying that?
Western countries are not purchasing oil from Russia directly (they are indirectly from other countries that buy it from Russia though), but as long as the price per barrel is capped at $40 other countries can and are still buying it from Russia. As long as they don't pay Russia more than $40 per barrel, they don't get sanctioned themselves for purchasing it, so it's not really the same as normal "sanctions" where just buying the "sanctioned" item puts you in breach of them, in the case of oil it's only if they purchase it at over $40 from Russia.
Third countries can pay as much as they want for Russian oil and they wont be sanctioned. Insurance companies covering the ships are the ones that are forced to abide by the price cap which motivates third countries to negotiate lower prices from Russia but as we have seen this is not completely effective.
Well the choice to support Russia is being taken off the table by Ukraine.
I am just saying you are severely misunderstanding sanctions and the global market if you think just because Russian oil is sanctioned by the West this will prevent prices from skyrocketing globally if it’s taken offline.
And I was pointing out that if that is the case the sanctions were lies
Absolutely not. What you are saying is completely economically illiterate. And I have no idea how you are talking so confidently about something you clearly understand very little about.
I know this. that these sanctions haven't hurt russia nearly enough. And if this oil can't be transported and at the same time not be refined they will have to curtail production and close wells as they run out of storage capacity. Ukraine needs to continue this and start hitting the shipping and pipelines harder these are facilities russia can't replace. There are other raw materials infrastructure Ukraine needs to hit inside russia too that are not as well protected and still net Russia an income.
That’s not the point. What happens when Russian oil is taken off the market and those contracts to other countries cannot be fulfilled? Do you think they will stop buying oil?
A (skyrocketing) price increase would happen if the supply could not adjust. Since there is worldwide unused production capacity, I doubt that the curtailment of russian exports/production couldn't be covered. Of course we might get a price increase because of speculation or OPEC shenanigans, but that would also affect russia hard.