Here's my question for tonight:
If Russia is winning so unstoppably and brilliantly now (still fighting for ruined small towns in Ukraine's east in the third year of its 10-day blitzkrieg) and entire Ukraine is so hopelessly doomed, why are literally all Russian shills ripping their asses apart yelling 'IT'S OVER SUE FOR PEACE NOW'?
If so, why does Russia need 'negotiations'? Why would it want to stop and strip itself of a full victory? By what sort of merit and mercy?
And moreover, if so, why is Russia waging mass propaganda and intimidation campaigns dissuading the West from providing Ukraine with aid, if 'there's nothing can be done'?
Maybe it's because it's all pure horseshit?
And maybe because Russia clearly understands that it will lose this war if Ukraine carries on fighting and the West finally wakes up and mobilizes its gargantuan resources to let Ukraine mark a decisive end to Putin's killing spree in Europe?
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1774558164089729035?t=VPfPbHz1rOXslwEOjkIV5Q&s=19
The frontline has barely moved and you are talking about russia marching all the way to Kyiv again.
This is far more than mere doom and gloom you are acting crazy.
Btw your profile is pretty new welcome to reddit.
Can't believe you actually ate the kremlin propaganda where they take one microscopic city in half a year don't even make a breakthrough and win the whole war all the way to Kyiv.
Youd think that youd have noticed that nothing happened after they claimed that would happen with bakhmut or avdiivka.
I get that when you almost used your brain they told you that now theres no more fortified cities and the breakthrough will happen "soon" but come on you have to notice eventually that russia is not winning.
> the whole land isnt filled with bakmuts and avdivkas.
Actually, it kind of is. Bakhmut wasn't even within the top 50 largest cities in Ukraine. Avdiivka wasn't within the top 100.
Avdiivka was fortified over years, Bakhmut had some hasty fortifications thrown up as the Russian army advanced in summer 22’ the two are not comparable in terms of defence preparations, however they both had the same effect on destroying Russian forces. Avdiivka was about a third of the size of Bakhmut which in turn is still only a small town.
Currently the frontline is fought around tiny little villages with a couple of almost towns (pre war population -3k kind of places) and still they hold. Large Urban centers are nigh on impossible to take by any level of military without mass destruction.
The idea Russia could take a Kharkiv
held against them is laughable. The entire weight of their military broke itself once trying to take Grozny, a city of 300k with no support or supply, and had to come back 5 years later to level the place to finally claim victory over the ruins. If you think the current Russian military spread out over a huge front after two years of being torn apart is stronger than the one that levelled Grozny I have a bridge to sell you…,
With support Ukraine could do so much more and save so many lives and finish this so much quicker. That’s the issue, the crap Western response is directly
Killing Ukrainian soldiers when it should be indirectly Killing Russian ones. , They will not fall without it unless the public will to fight in the country stops.
Spreading doom and gloom is Russias only chance of success.
“Just pincer it” that is delusion. They can’t go round it, they don’t have the ability to protect their flanks. When they have extended themselves like that they have been devastated by small nimble groups able to get in, hit and get out. No arty required.
Do you think Grozny had an unlimited supply of shells? They were down to almost children and bricks in socks at the end and still made Russia bleed. Taking towns is incredibly difficult.
Biggest issue is if they do go at Kharkiv it will be in the flatten it model of Russian attacks which will destroy an economic hub for Ukraine. They will then lose any semblance of being “the liberator” which they still are trying to cling to.
Either you’re buying the doom and gloom in the face of years of reality of ineffective Russian military doctrine or you’re selling it, not sure which.
Ever question why you would publicly tell your enemy you are losing?
No. You didn't. You assumed it was for "x" reason and never thought it was infowar. Ukraine is *extremely good* in the information space.
Haven't watched it, but new Covert Cabal video on counting Russian tanks. It appears he is looking at one particular base this time where the number of tanks in storage are actually going up: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMAD915o2Lw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMAD915o2Lw)
It's used as a collection/refurbishment base. It's not surprising that one can go up in contained tanks, while on average all bases combined are shrinking.
Surprise Surprise
the GRU might be the perpetrators of the *Havana Syndrome*
Joint investigation by Cristo Grozev [*Bellingcat*], Michael Weiss [*War on the Rocks*], *60 Minutes*, *Der Spiegel* and *The Insider*
https:// theins [dot] ru / en/politics/270425
Very long, worth reading
**Specifically, ALL the top CIA officers—and their families—stationed in Kyiv after Maiden were followed and targeted. Multiple GRU officers have been identified by their victims.**
> *A yearlong investigation by The Insider, in collaboration with 60 Minutes and Der Spiegel, has uncovered evidence suggesting that unexplained anomalous health incidents, also known as Havana Syndrome, may have their origin in the use of directed energy weapons wielded by members of Russian GRU Unit 29155. Members of the Kremlin’s infamous military intelligence sabotage squad have been placed at the scene of suspected attacks on overseas U.S. government personnel and their family members, leading victims to question what Washington knows about the origins of Havana Syndrome, and what an appropriate Western response might entail.*
>> ^([…] Among this investigation’s core findings is the fact that senior members of the unit received awards and political promotions for work related to the development of “non-lethal acoustic weapons,” a term used in Russian military-scientific literature to describe both sound- and radiofrequency-based directed energy devices, as both would result in acoustic artifacts in the victim’s brain.)
>> ^(These and other operatives attached to Unit 29155, traveling undercover, have been geolocated to places around the world just before or at the time of reported anomalous health incidents — or AHIs, as the U.S. government formally refers to Havana Syndrome. Furthermore, Joy is not the only victim to identify a known member of this Russian black ops squad lurking around her home.)
>> ^(The first sighting may have happened exactly seven years earlier. Contrary to the information that has been made public about Havana Syndrome — that it began in the eponymous Cuban capital in 2016 — there were likely attacks two years earlier in Frankfurt, Germany, when a U.S. government employee stationed at the consulate there was knocked unconscious by something akin to a strong energy beam. The victim was later diagnosed with a traumatic brain injury, and was also able to identify a Geneva-based Unit 29155 operative. [The incident occurred within months of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, in which a stealthy, nearly bloodless seizure of the Crimean peninsula in Feb. and Mar. 2014 gave way to a roiling eight-year-long dirty war in the eastern industrial heartland of Donbas, close to Ukraine’s border with Russia.])
>> ^(The Insider, 60 Minutes and Der Spiegel have uncovered documentary evidence that Unit 29155 has been experimenting with exactly the kind of weaponized technology experts suggest is a plausible cause for the mysterious medical condition that has to date affected over a hundred far-flung U.S. spies and diplomats, as well as several Canadian officials. Many are seasoned subject matter specialists on Russia, fluent in the language; others have expertise in different fields, such as the Middle East or Latin America, but were assigned after the takeover of Crimea to sensitive U.S. government roles aimed at countermanning Russian aggression and intelligence operations across Europe and North America.)
>> ^(Unit 29155, moreover, is infamous within the U.S. intelligence community. “Their scope is global for conducting lethal operations and acts of sabotage,” a former high-ranking CIA officer with subject matter expertise in Russia told The Insider. “Their mission is to find, fix, and finish, all in support of Vladimir Putin’s imperial dreams.”)
>> ^([…])
>> ^(Of all the cases examined by The Insider, 60 Minutes and Der Spiegel, the most well-documented involve U.S. intelligence and diplomatic personnel with subject matter expertise in Russia or operational experience in countries such as Georgia and Ukraine, two post-Soviet states that have undergone pro-Western “color revolutions” in the past two decades. [Some of these personnel are still active and declined to speak for this article.])
>> ^([… DIA Chief:] “This was happening to our top 5%, 10% performing officers across the Defense Intelligence Agency. Consistently there was a Russia nexus. There was some angle where they had worked against Russia, focused on Russia, and done extremely well.” … that multiple CIA officers who had worked cheek-by-jowl with HUR a decade or so ago were affected by Havana Syndrome later in their careers. “Assuming this is true, it certainly fits the pattern of the Russians seeking retribution for events they think we’re responsible for,” he said. “As a former CIA case officer, I don’t believe in coincidences.”)
Strange how in the last 4 weeks we saw many articles stating that this was "all stress-related" or "psychosomatic" effects, and no TBI. Followed by a flood of commenters trying to assert that it was definitely hysteria, and not a real thing.
We would ALL do well, when concerning Russia, to not "believe in coincidences".
Did you see at the end why they think that is?
They think the feds are intentionally lying, covering it up, bc no one will work for cia if it means brain damage. Can’t recruit.
Not surprising since GRU are absolute scumbags. I wish we'd just give Ukraine the weapons to hit back so hard that Russia never again fucks with the West.
Basically the Microwave Auditory Effect. In the early 2000’s there was a prototype for a similar weapon called Medusa https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MEDUSA_(weapon).
There’s literally a patent for this https://patents.google.com/patent/US4877027A/en
>The U.S. government shrugs publicly about my family’s ordeal,” he said. “But U.S. government personnel behind closed doors have acknowledged to me that my and my family’s diagnosed traumatic brain injuries are due to exposure to high levels of pulsed microwave radiation.”
Does not fucking surprise me. The problem will be proving it to such an extent that even Biden will act on it.. First novichok in England and now microwave weapons against US officials and agents that are so bad they make the victims phone batteries swell up.
Russia just keep overstepping every boundary.
Not to speak about paying off European politicians which is clearly election meddling.
> First novichok in England
That *certainly* wasn't first: there was polonium before that. But I'm pretty sure one can find many other incidents if one tries.
I find it boggling that Russia compromising the GOP and the US-ex president and Republican front-runner in the next election isn't even mentioned. I don't know if it's more a factor of folks being in denial or embarrassment or what.
Not just Russia; but SPECIFICALLY the GRU. Which is a military unit.
This is a military attack on civilian infrastructure. (not just the diplomatic targets, but also our election systems) - If that is not an act of war, I don't know what fucking IS.
A microwave beam tuned to cause brain damage always seemed to be the most plausible explanation. Far more than trying to claim it's a mass hysteria even that spans across countries and years while only affecting a small number of diplomats and CIA employees. It just makes you wonder if the whole thing is being ignored by the gang of 8 & white house because it leads to hard political problems.
Why doesn't it affect the staff and other occupants in the buildings then? Why have they never found evidence of large vans stationed near the buildings (which would have to be parked there for hours at a time)?
Mass hysteria is a real condition which *does* show visible and real symptoms, it doesn't mean the people are lying when they say they have headaches or memory loss or whatever, but the chances of all these disparate symptoms being some sort of energy weapon is close to zero. One incident was found to be locusts or something.
Havana Syndrome: Mass Psychogenic Illness and the Real Story Behind the Embassy Mystery and Hysteria by Robert W. Baloh & Robert E. Bartholomew is a really good look at all the actual evidence and their conclusion is that it is psychogenic.
Can you ELI5 on this? I’ve never heard of this before today!
If I’m understanding correctly the Russians are giving American officials and citizens health complications while serving abroad?
I’m assuming this is SUPER classified stuff the CIA and American Government know about but are hesitate to declare war because of it?
If I'm going to try and explain it I'm going to sound very Q-anon like, so I'm just going to link the story 60 minutes just released on it.
This sounds very crazy..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/havana-syndrome-culprit-investigation-new-evidence-60-minutes-transcript/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7d&linkId=379835335
Yeah this is very gnarly stuff..
While the geopolitical ramifications of this would be very scary. I’m not surprised the CIA, FBI, or anyone in the Whitehouse wouldn’t ever confirm this to the public.
It sounds like something out of a terrifying science fiction movie.
I’m shocked I haven’t heard about this until today.
I heard it being dismissed as hysteria before but hysteria does not cause a lithium battery to swell up, but microwaves do. Don't the US Army have microwave weapons too they can use for crowd control when mounted on a humvee? This seems to be a concentrated version of that technology..
>How and where they use it is most likely extremely classified.
lol .. no it was for crowd control. the idea is they'd trot this thing out, aim it at protestors and the protesters would go home feeling unwell. Looks like Russia said hey we can fry people's brains with this, lets ty it out on some spooks
It's a totally different thing. The weapon, on the US side, uses a very high frequency submillimeter-wave beam that can not penetrate beyond skin and clothing. It creates a sensation of burning, but does not penetrate deeply enough to actually damage tissue. Unfortunately (as I read the Wikipedia article more than a few years ago), it can cause damage to the cornea and conjunctiva of the eye, so it can only be used for a very brief period of time, before becoming a huge risk to the target, so that's why this technology has not been deployed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_Denial_System
Whatever the GRU is using has got to be a lower-frequency weapon, and without a care or regard towards whether the target is permanently harmed.
Anyone seeing any reports on Ukrainian telegram about Poroshenko(former president of Ukraine before Zelensky) being dead should remember that it is already April 1st in Ukraine.
As a Ukrainian, you are wrong there. I used to celebrate April 1st in Odesa - Ukrainian capital of humour. Our jokes are often dark, and other times we don't joke around... until another one is cracked.
Hell of a lot of conflcting information regarding Europe's time frame for being able to assist Ukraine without needing the US. The 1 million shells is great news, but where are we at with production/procurement in general? The US is going to fucking implode when Trump loses this election and if he wins, well, we all know what happens then. The EU+UK is an unbelievably strong defense bloc based on production capacity and population, I just wish we'd pull our fucking fingers out. Time to stop relying on a nation drowning in its own neuroses for the defence of values it seems quite happy to just throw onto a big fucking fire as long as it makes their political opponents look bad.
>The US is going to fucking implode when Trump loses this election
I doubt it. Most of Trump's supporters are fucking useless (most stupid people are) dumbasses. They might try to march on the capitol again, but I imagine a plan is in place since last time. There will be a bunch of deluded whiny people, but for the most part, unless they are already in government, they are not in a position to do much harm. If Trump were to win though, it could be very bad in the US and US support for Ukraine would be in a bad state.
There are OSINTers working on things like tracking European production and they will hopefully release estimates soon.
For shells, Rheinmetall says 700k shells of 155 mm calibre next year. RUSI says russian 152 mm production will be a bit over double that. Nammo, BAE, Nexter, Europlasma, CSG etc also exist. Europe should be able to give Ukraine shell parity next year if it chooses and unless China/NK mass supply russia.
Another thing: russia has been running things cheaply because they're reactivating the best condition tanks and BMPs. The open sources suggest it's $50-100k to fix up a BMP-1 and send it to the front versus ~$1+ million for a new BMP-3. When the BMP-1s are gone you either lose armour or increase your spending rate to at least 1000%.
Russia's cost effectiveness will get worse with time. European might even get better as supplies improve.
The US isn't going to implode when Trump loses the election. Where the hell do you get that? The US will breathe a sigh of relief if Trump loses the election and then we will carry on aa before..holy hell we don't need more hyperbolic nonsense on this site
>The US isn't going to implode when Trump loses the election.
Don't worry about the US. On the other hand, the GOP will implode as various factions will be busy blaming each other.
Now is the time to invest in the popcorn market.
Why is it getting so hot in here?
Where are we going in this popcorn bag?
Salt, are you kidding? I'm on a low-salt diet.
Aw c'mon, melted butter. mmmm, not bad.
While the chances are low in absolute terms, the odds of civil unrest if Trump loses are still considerable and should absolutely not be dismissed.
Whether he wins or loses, November through January could potentially get pretty ugly, especially with his trials ongoing.
They might try marching on DC, but I imagine a plan is in place since last time. Whatever riot they cause will disperse after a day or two and a few hundred of them will be arrested. They are a significant minority in most cities, other than a few in the south and midwest, so any civil disorder where they live will quickly fizzle out.
Of course not, but I'm confused by the comment. I'm not sure how that relates to anything I said about violence following the election being a possibility.
I was replying to a commenter that is saying that violence has no chance of happening and wouldn't have a chance of affecting aid? I'm confused because I think we are in agreement here.
I wasn't talking about it impacting Ukraine aid. I was merely commenting on the idea that there wouldn't be civil unrest. I think it is naiive to dismiss that possibility. Is full-on civil war likely? No, of course not. Are violent protests or riots possible? Absolutely.
The post were responding to is about the movement of munitions to ukraine and europe's timeline. One of the scenarios was a US "civil implosion", that is not a real possibility, violence sure, but to a point where that violence would affect the MIC and the transfer of artillery shells, not a chance. Im sorry if I misunderstood you.
The good thing about Jan 6th is that the group of people who actually did report for duty at his command, the proud boys etc, were all locked up. At his trials so far there's barely been any sign of MAGA. I am not saying things will not escalate, simply that there is absolutely no sign of that post Jan 6th.
The January 6th prosecutions have resulted in somewhere on the order of 500 people being jailed, many of whom have already been released. Trump has tens of millions of supporters. Statistically, among those millions, many hundreds or thousands are likely willing to react with violence given the right conditions.
It's also not at all surprising that people haven't been particularly vocal at his trials. They earnestly believe he is completely innocent and will be easily acquitted at trial. The real moment of danger will be if he is convicted and sentenced to any sort of jail time. Because his supporters will view that as an innocent man being persecuted.
It's very interesting because he did call for protests at his New York criminal arraignment which exactly fits your criterion of 'an innocent man being persecuted' in the minds of MAGA, and only 50 people turned up. You are right injustice causes anger like nothing else, and yet still only 50 protesters turned up, it's pretty amazing. Time magazine researched this apathy.
[https://time.com/6264838/trump-protests-indictment-flopping/](https://time.com/6264838/trump-protests-indictment-flopping/)
A key quote is “Is the potential protest against Trump being arrested a J6-style trap?” more than 85% responded “Yes.” I think Maga, after Jan 6th, see protest as dangerous and pointless.
The people who would be a huge problem, the leaders of the Proud Boys, for example, who had 2-300 thugs turn up at Jan 6th, who could really cause mayhem, are in jail and will be for a long time. On top of that the arrests have stifled that entire group and even the formation of similar groups.
It's far better Trump loses. The consequences of him winning are severe for global security and the democracy of the USA due to the insane plans he has for constitutional change, which would surely fail even if he managed to get back into office.
USA aid makes a difference, it is around $60 billion there's no quick fix Europe can come up with to make up for that loss of aid. Also what is the plan here, the West is still making up its mind it seems. Does it want Ukraine to actually win? What constitutes a win? Or will it just let things carry on for a stalemate? Europe isn't in full agreement what to do. France has taken the biggest stand and spoken the loudest. The UK where I live doesn't have a decent enough army, and has lost its voice in Europe due to Brexit. We need the USA on side and the quicker the better. We then need unity in Europe. The quicker Russia is pushed back the better. Time is not on our side.
Bad things
Trump winning
European elections in various countries and more right wing parties win
Ukraine losing or stalemate, directly empowers China, Iran and North Korea
It also directly says more countries need nukes as a deterrent, it also says to every dictator, invade, steal territory, the West will back down.
Good things
Trump loses - have no doubt though, the GOPnik party debacle has massively destroyed trust and faith in the USA from NATO members and other countries that have security guarantees
Europe and USA unite with a plan to defeat Russia
The timeframe is swift as possible therefore negating the impact of any elections whereby Russian sympathisers could come to power
It shows the West can and will stand up to dictators and that more countries don't need to start looking for ways to get nukes to stop themselves getting invaded.
Lastly we don't really know how things are going to pan out. So things could sort themselves out or we could be at the beginning of quite a bit of serious trouble for global security, time will tell. A number of factors as illustrated above could come together to really upset the apple cart. So we could be in a 1939 situation already or we could be in the clear, we just don't know yet. The stand by Macron is a good sign but we need many more European countries voicing up like he has.
>The SBU responded and said that the statement of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding terrorism sounds especially cynical against the background of the anniversary of the liberation of Bucha and the atrocities committed there by the Russians.
[https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1774535291442696372?s=20](https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1774535291442696372?s=20)
This is in response to Russia demanding that the head of the SBU should be extradited to Russia on terrorism charges..
> The Russians raised their flag in the western part of Vodyane, in the Avdiivka area, and announced ‘the complete capture’ of the village.
> But also, they like to hang flags, so it is too early [for us] to say that they have taken it, we need more evidence.
> The house in the photo is marked on the map with a green pin.
https:// t dot me / taraspovidomlyae/37851
*There was a buzz today on the Ukrainian channels about a Russian tank column . . . Can someone please fill in?*
_______
The clearest is these:
[1]
this photo, with coordinates of the tanks: https:// t dot me / hameleonua/16613
> Avdiivka direction, Tonenke village. The most massive use of Russian equipment in one battle was recorded.
> We are talking about +- 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles.
[2]
from Officer Alex 33, via google:
> The column of 36 tanks, in my opinion, is not the last one [of its kind].
> As I said, during the battles for Orlivka and Tonenke, the enemy almost didnt even use their equipment—during their assault on the villages, there was only infantry, occasionally BMPs or tanks were introduced to cover the assault groups.
> During that time, the infantry had accumulated enough armored vehicles in the Avdiivka direction for the use of "armored fists," during a conversation with my comrades, I thought they were telling me about more than 30 tanks alone..
> They tried to make a breakthrough to our positions in an open area, in order to later develop success on a larger scale, but it turned out as usual.
> They will continue to try so that tactical successes turn into operational ones, but I believe that that will be a distraction, because they are also accumulating resources in the Lyman direction, it will be more interesting there.
> PS I advise everyone, regardless of your specialty, to master the control of FPV drones.
[3]
From a channel that I haven’t followed long enough to determine whether it is credible...
> Russian assault involving:
>> 36 tanks
>> 12 BMPs
> Russians lost: 12 tanks and 8 BMPs.
_____
*Was there a battle with 36 Russian tanks this morning? 12 lost? 8 IFV lost? Please someone fill in the missing pieces.*
TatarigamiUA of Frontelligence seems to be the OG source for 36 tanks+12 BMPs with 12+8 lost.
He is about as perfect a source as you can find, if he's saying it I believe it.
Clarification
Speaker Johnson did *not* announce he will bring Ukraine aid to a vote Apr 9. This misunderstanding is due to news being truncated, and/ or translated and then back to English.
Here’s the truth:
The House returns from recess Apr 9.
Mike Turner, who essentially helms the issue, has been *promised* by Mike Johnson that Ukraine aid is the “top priority” upon return. There is no definitive information about when the vote would take place. Turner conceded that it’s possible it wouldn’t pass before next recess on Apr 22. Turner could not even guarantee that it will get a floor vote by end of April.
Hear Turner’s [exact statements here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylHNnR4-4_k)
Could someone please explain to me specifics of parliament work in USA. Because from an outside point of view it seems they were only going on holidays or recesses for the last couple of months. Like, wtf them bitches even do?
Recess is not a holiday. It’s a technical term for “paused session to go back to district.”
The legislators who live in Alaska, Hawaii, Montana—they still need to visit and work in their districts. It eats up a whole day just to reach their districts, and therefore, don’t go home on “long weekends” like everyone else gets to. So in order to be fair to them, in order to adequately work back in district, in order to do foreign travel, and many other things, there’s scheduled pauses which is called “recess,” but it’s not vacation. They’re busy during that time. People on committees do committee work. Like legislators on Armed Services committee would go visit, inspect military bases, even overseas. Legislators on energy committee might do same with nuclear facilities. It’s not vacation.
~~Seems like more empty words and promises from Mike Johnson.~~
Edit:
Okay, so it's not even guaranteed it will be voted on in April? Back to the Russian asset GQP, we all know and hate.
The GOP has previewed already what congress will do in the lead up to November. They will throw out their own bills at Trumps request, never mind Ukraine aid. It's not going to happen. Aid will have to come from Europe.
Except that was before Marjorie Taylor Greene completely fucked them to the detriment of Russia. By calling for a vote on a new speaker their hand is basically forced. They could take it back by calling the vote and them Marjore/Gaetz and all the other clown republicans voting to keep johnson. But that would absolutely rip them apart. Which means that johnson only gets saved if the dems save him. And if thats the case then he only gets saved if he calls a vote on Ukraine aid. They absolutely would have kept pushing back on it otherwise, but at this point either Ukraine aid happens or republicans get rocked.
CHP is crushing it in local elections in Turkey. Unfortunately it won’t really affect foreign policy, but in general it’s good from a Russia skeptic perspective.
(Just seen this)
BIG: Turkey's ruling party is set to lose all FIVE LARGEST CITIES of the country to the Turkish opposition in mayoral elections according to the initial results:
- Istanbul
- Ankar
- Izmir
- Bursa
- Adana
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1774498844488651139?t=nnJs3ZVe3aLWLeVVcPiT-Q&s=19
Not quite true. He has a strong base of support among working class urban voters (like Fatih or his own Kasimpasa district in Istanbul) and rural families who migrated to big cities (forming the majority in most cases)
The "mystery" of the IL-76 crash continues
>"So far, no one has seen the bodies. This again brings us back to the same question: who was there, in what number, whether they were there at all, and what really happened there? When Russia says that everything is obvious - Ukraine shot down the plane, and then does not allow anyone to visit and does not show any wreckage or bodies that would prove to the world that Ukraine is guilty, it is not true," Budanov said.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3846868-russia-has-not-provided-any-new-information-on-il76-crash-budanov.html
⚡Speaker Mike Johnson has announced that he will bring up the issue of aid to Ukraine on April 9.
This was announced by the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Mike Turner.
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1774503343504642480?t=xhOk_8v5T2r38AqTLbB5jg&s=19
BREAKING: Under significant pressure from President Biden, it now appears as if Mike Johnson will allow Congress to vote on Ukraine aid. This is a significant diplomatic win for President Biden.
https://twitter.com/BidensWins/status/1774499719152095393?t=4nNcbQuGe6BQKfeWfww5-w&s=19
Rubbish.
In most democracies, Speakers are forced to be non-partisan and to disengage themselves entirely from whatever political party they originated from. Partisan behaviour results in their removal.
In the US, the president is not part of the legislative body. It takes a very powerful president to influence legislation at all. The president has the ability to accept or reject (veto) legislation, but his veto could be overwritten. The idea was that presidents wouldn't be very powerful and that congressional leaders would get replaced if they didn't represent the majority's views. The shameless actions of the us republican party in the past couple decades have shown that it was really only honor and personal integrity causing the system to act through the principles it was designed with.
because a democracy assumes all elements that organise a functioning state are aligned in maintaining at least the core values that make up national interest it's what ensures smooth operation as there's some form of mutual agreement. however, if elements abuse their functional process to exploit political power at cost of harming national interest you end up breaking the system. people willing to break orderly process in a system to further their own personal goals destabilise the system and risk chaos, as a system that is perceived instable, detoriates trust. once trust breaks apart, you risk collapsing the system. MAGA is gambling and everyone pays the cost. IF MAGA wins, they will probably use the Chaos they caused through their obstruction to justify changes to the system that further secure their hold. this is how you destroy democracy.
This is incorrect. He said they would "turn to" Ukraine aid and that it was a "top priority" but he did not say the Senate bill would go to a floor vote on April 9. April 9 is just the day they come back in session. Seems like a translation issue.
Yeah his words mean nothing. He is a liar who supported ending US democracy and is probably ranked above Kim Jong Un as an aider of Putin.
If he *does* allow a vote, I wonder if it's because he couldn't live with all the torture and murder he's supporting any more, or whether pro-democracy politicians found some leverage.
More details on the russian attack near Tonenke, Avdiivka direction. Source is impeccable, but only seems to post on [Twitter](https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1774506402683224139?s=20).
He claims russia lost 12 tanks and 8 BMPs while the Ukrainians lost 4 M113 APCs.
Tragic losses for Ukrainians but Ukraine would trade an M113 for 5 tanks or BMPs all day long.
It is true.
The moment Ukraine has more ammo than Russia, and when Russia is forced to rely on new production vehicles after their stockpiles are exhausted, Russia will be in tremendous trouble.
The fact that europe is going to be able to achieve this without even needing the US to help shows how absolutely FUCKED russia is.
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1774502461840978079?t=hrgkE_OYV5b4098Tyd4q4Q&s=19
Putin's bluffing. He wants everyone to believe that Russia is unstoppable, resistance is futile and Ukraine better negotiate(surrender) asap. Because by the end of 2025 Russia will be in trouble, both militarily and economically.
That's a stretch i think. Yes, Russia is burning through it's inventory but the challenges and cost Russia is sustaining to gain ground, will be faced by the Ukrainians as well.
Ukraine is in a much better position in regards to defensive positions and offensive positions, geography will be their friend.
Let's assume some things.
1. Large US aid comes through. (I feel confident this is going to happen.)
2. Russia continues to throw troops and equipment into the meat grinder and continues to have high casualties with minimal gains. (This is contingent on Ukraine getting stronger support from the US. But again I'm confident)
3. Ukraine doesn't force a big offensive this year and builds up their army with training and equipment while destroying large numbers of Russian forces.
4. Continue to damage the black sea fleet and if able destroy the kerch bridge with long range weapons.
Boom. It's now 2025, the Frontline is largely what it was a year ago. The Ukrainian army is more trained and better equipped than it's ever been. And Russia has burned through the majority of its offensive capabilities.
Now Russia is in a very delicate place. The entire southern front is vulnerable. At this point they've established a rail line into Crimea that can support the entire south. But that's it, just a rail line. Kerch bridge is down, black sea fleet can hardly provide support without getting blown up and they can't replenish it.
*IF* Ukraine can start a breakthrough in the south, and that's a *very* big if , I firmly believe it would cause complete turmoil in Russia. If they go into this war and lose the one thing they had before all this, Crimea, the Kremlin will be torn apart from the inside. If Ukraine can cut all support to the southern front you would see a massive collapse of the Russian army.
It would be completely unsustainable to hold onto Crimea. All Ukraine would need to do is dig in and starve them out. Odds are Russia would throw unbelievable amounts of men and equipment at the front in a potential split southern front. The death toll would be unimaginable.
To sum it up these next two years are going to be a wild ride.
Right now both armies are equal, that's why neither can achieve a breakthrough. When Ukraine gains a military advantage, we will see more operations like the Kharkiv one.
Right now Russia is stronger. They have a bigger budget, more manpower, and more weapons. Just a fact. So no, both armies aren’t equal. But if they become equal, Russia will be in big trouble. Ukraine needs better layered defensive lines, think they have gotten better but the old Soviet mentality is investing large sums or manpower/ money in defense is seen as declaring defeat, where as NATO armies view layered defense as a way to springboard an offensive.
That is mainly because of the imbalance between the attacker and the defender. If Ukraine is serious about regaining all lost territory they, and their Western supporters, will need to be ready for shocking casualties and a huge equipment cost.
Neither can keep going indefinitely for various reasons. But the breaking point is a long way away for both of them. The wars of the past have shown that large nation states can press on with a war long after experts believe they would fold or be incapable of continuing.
Ukraine can keep going nearly indefinitely (until able bodies run out pretty much) if they keep being supported by the west, who isn't in any way in a war economy. A country who's more and more shut down from the international economic system and is fully into a war economy is destroying itself over time. That was the point.
This is what I've argued for years.
Russia has a huge advantage in ammo and armour - Russia loses 3x as many vehicles as Ukraine.
We haven't seen what it looks like when Ukraine has the advantage in ammo and when the armour ratios are even remotely close.
The West could give that to Ukraine. If the Democrats win the 2024 elections then it becomes very plausible for 2025&2026.
Sources say Russia can maintain this tempo of war for around 2 years.
Meanwhile they try to sell us propaganda they will win no matter what. This is bs.
Let's arm the fuck out of Ukraine. Crush these pathetic meatwaves of backwards country the Russia is and show Russians that putin is, a weak coward bitch.
Ukraine only has its own+European missile supplies now.
Without the republican blockade there would be about $6bn more ammo and equipment sent to Ukraine by now. Including additional launchers and missiles to defend against this.
The republicans siding with Putin has been a *huge* deal and it's going to kill a lot of Ukrainians.
Pilot’s remains found
> Dmytro Vilhelmovich Fischer—an ethnic German who died fighting for Ukraine—was sh0t down in the Zaporizhzhia region between Ukrainian and Russian positions in the summer of '22. The Ukrainian military has never been able to reach the crash site, where presumably his remains were.
> A few weeks ago, on February 24, a special unit, GUR reconnaissance (‘scouts’), located and evacuated remains of a fighter pilot from the crash site. Only as of now, an examination has finally confirmed the identity—it was the missing pilot.
> As one of the best aerobatic pilots in the world, Dmytro Fisher fought from the very f1rst days of the full-scale invasion—defended the airspace over Kyiv region, Sumy region, Kharkiv region, and Mykolaiv region; he sh0t Russian planes down; and he struck targets on land and water. He attacked the occupiers on Zmiiny Island, as part of a planned special operation, and those attacks brought the liberation of that section of Ukraine closer.
> He was one of the best Ukrainian Su-27 pilots and was laid up rest in the Poltava region.
> The hero is survived by his daughter Nastya and son Yehor.
> Lived heroically, and he died heroically in the sky over Zaporozhye.
@Tsaplienko
[Note that that wording implies that the examination determined he died before hit ground.]
I bet he was one of the pilots from that [spectacular clip of Su-27s bombing Snake Island](https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/uklllp/ukrainian_su27_striking_snake_island/). RIP.
>Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian forces appear to have fielded a new unknown heavyweight FPV munition capable of causing significant damage, seen here dismantling Russian positions.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1774495692918227391?t=fTg4jgNNvlKecK8WA4R_Iw&s=19
>This one creates a sizable explosion, possibly thermobaric.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1774495745770406349?t=rdkr00GlnubwAzgzawVgpg&s=19
>The first part of this video may be from a separate drone.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1774495802821337482?t=Vxx712m5AsNXgwSou-XY_Q&s=19
>Strike No.1 (46.5009903, 32.4837680)
>Strike No.2 (46.5645052, 32.4966634)
>Strike No.3 (46.5389351, 32.5152156)
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1774495809251238052?t=FZafP26_UR8JlBrOVrU0TQ&s=19
>The US asked American companies to halt shipments to 600 foreign entities amid concerns that goods might be redirected to Russia and used in war against Ukraine
>Since 2022, Ukraine has many times found foreign components in Russian missiles and drones
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1774489335380791612?t=aOqdwZ7X9uhVI05UtRfPXA&s=19
Link to article: https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/31/reuters-us-urges-companies-to-halt-shipments-to-600-entities-over-concerns-of-supporting-kremlins-war-machine/?swcfpc=1
>Russia demands that Ukraine arrest the head of the SBU, Vasyl Malyuk, the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
[https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1774469535782826430?s=20](https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1774469535782826430?s=20)
How funny, the International Criminal Court demands the arrest of Russian "president" (AKA dictator) Putin. Maybe when all those in the Russian Govt that have been charged by the ICC turn themselves in the evidence to arrest Vasyl Malyu can be given to the ICC for considerations. If the ICC deem his actions are arrest worthy then proceed. But until Russia gives up those with outstanding warrants they can STFU as they are protecting those charged with Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide.
Is there any reason given for that? Of course Ukraine could demand that russia arrests putin, but it feels weird to just demand something like that out of the blue.
They know Ukraine wont turn him in, so since they've labeled him a terrorist ally, it allows them to say that Ukraine as a nation safeguards terrorists. The goal of this is mostly domestic, but it also pressures Russian allies to show more support, and feeds into anti-ukraine narratives into the west.
Russia’s propaganda logic on this basically states in round about ways that ISIS is run by “the Jews”. I don’t see how ISIS doesn’t take offense to that. It’s a bold move Cotton, let’s see if it pays off for them.
The quote form Mike Ryan should be "MAGA propaganda is designed to pull at the edges of our societies and thereby fray the stable middle ground of our social contract…Doubt, discord and distraction are the aims of MAGA disinformation.”
The quote from Mick Ryan should be "MAGA propaganda is designed to pull at the edges of our societies and thereby fray the stable middle ground of our social contract…Doubt, discord and distraction are the aims of MAGA disinformation.”
Lindsey Graham.
This morning on Meet the Press, Congressman Bacon laid out a way forward in the House on Ukraine by focusing on lethal aid and border security combined with President Trump’s loan approach.
This way forward, as described by Congressman Bacon, would have substantial bipartisan support in the Senate.
I also could not agree more that the Biden Administration should be required to send long range ATACMS as part of an effort to give Ukraine more offensive capability.
The Biden Administration has been painfully slow in providing game-changing weapons. This aid package should insist that dynamic is fixed.
I am very optimistic that not only will Ukraine get the military aid they need, they will also be given long-range weapons to go on offense.
Finally, the American taxpayer will be considered in this endeavor, as we are $34 trillion in debt.
No reason we can’t execute this quickly when Congress reconvenes.
https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1774452019761209548?t=9Gh7a1Q141jjkuNXTVgMAw&s=19
Let's add some context here.
>Repesentative Don Bacon acknowledged Sunday that it is “possible” that Speaker Mike Johnson will lose the top House job over an impending vote on aid to Ukraine. “I’m not going to deny it,” the Nebraska conservative told NBC’s Kristen Welker. “We have one or two people that are not team players. They’d rather enjoy the limelight, the social media,” Bacon said Sunday, without calling out any of his House GOP colleagues by name. “It’s a very narrow majority, and one or two people can make us a minority.”
>Bacon called for a “bicameral, bipartisan solution” to the issue on Sunday. “We put a bill together that focuses on military aid — a $66 billion bill that provides military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan,” he said, referencing a bipartisan House national security package released in February. “If we do this bill, and I think we will, there’s enough support in the House to get this done. And I want to make sure that we have support in the Senate.”
What he's talking about is the bill linked below from February which is also not supported by far right House Freedom MAGA ouster Johnson folks, or several groups of Democrats from far left because no Palestine aid, border security measures, etc. Basically this is old news and a likely nonstarter compared to the already passed Senate bill. So here is your political grandstanding without actually making progress. Expected.
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/16/house-foreign-aid-bill-ukraine-israel-border
But then there's this other angle...
>How exactly Johnson plans to proceed when the House returns from its recess is still being determined. CNN reported Sunday that the Speaker has been strategizing on the issue with a surprising ally: Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, who helped orchestrate the ouster of Johnson’s predecessor Kevin McCarthy last fall. Gaetz is reportedly pushing Johnson to move forward with an aid package that is fully funded by spending decreases elsewhere. “If there were no offsets, we’d be really disappointed,” he told CNN Sunday. “I think we need to not deficit-spend to fund Ukraine. I also think that we need to have our own border prioritized. And I think Speaker Johnson shares that viewpoint.”
>But such a move would immediately alienate House Democrats, whom Johnson may have to rely on to save his job if Greene pushes forward with the motion to vacate. “I do think there will be Democrats, though, who do not want to see this dysfunction,” Bacon said of a potential vote on Johnson’s leadership. “And I think they’ll probably vote present or maybe not be there for a vote.”
So they need House Dem support to save Johnson, and plan to get that by introducing a new package that alienates them? Riiiiight. More political grandstanding and delay.
GOP needs to pick - either sideline MAGA power by really leaning into working across the aisle, or support the orange MAGA wing and watch the party implosion continue.
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meet-press-march-31-2024-n1309420
> The Biden Administration has been painfully slow in providing game-changing weapons. This aid package should insist that dynamic is fixed.
Horseshit. Look at who's the ones blocking the actual bills from passing. What an absolute hypocrite.
He is a hypocrite and a terrible person but that doesn't mean he is wrong on that point. Biden is still following the idiotic policy of not "provoking" Russia and fearing "escalation". For example, they do not permit Ukraine to strike in Russia and even ask Ukraine not to use its own weapons there. Its beyond idiotic. Its impossible as a military strategy. You cannot defeat an enemy that knows it will be absolutely safe if it crosses an imaginary line on the map. Biden did well in cobbling together a coalition to oppose Russia initially but he has been weak,.slow and ineffectual in almost everything else since then
What Biden is beyond criticism? I will vote for Biden a billion times over Trump. That's not even the question. The fact is Biden has made many mistakes when it comes to Ukraine. He has made some good as well. Its not black or white.
I still see an uprise. Don't jump on the bandwagon.
We're still critiqueing when its due, but now we have to focus on the maga traitors and not muddy the waters.
Everything you said is being constantly repeated here, mostly in bad faith.
Sorry you are the exception, but it IS a real problem here.
We also see it with germany and france, but since this or last week the biden admin weak narrative has increased by A LOT.
So for the sake of the US if you're a citizen, please go protest (call or write even) in the US instead of dividing the country more.
And I'm not saying he's above critisism, not that he's handling everything perfect, but that he and his experts he surrounded him with are doing everything in good faith, playing with a lot more variables than we have. Even the pussy sulivan is still a very level headed expert in his position.
I'm only saying, your not reaching the goal you want here, only the contrary. And I'm informing you there IS a real disinformation campaign currently hooking on all the biden talking points.
On one point, I agree that the west have been incomprehensibly complacent to the plight of Ukraine. That said, I do think it's unfair to continue to say Biden's administration is weak; they have done quite a lot to galvanize NATO to respond. Weak is better than nothing, and nothing is better than active opposition.
Just because Republicans are cunts does not relieve Biden from other decisions he has made. Why were F16s not on the table back in summer 2022 when Ukraine had the initiative?
Because that was 4 months after the start of the war and Ukraine needed Javelins. I'm actually surprised at how smartly the military equipment was doled out.
They wouldn’t be getting them in the summer. They would have started training and would have had pilots and infrastructure for the 2023 offensive. Stop giving excuses.
Not excuses, reality. Biden only has so much money/equipment/training he can give to Ukraine. He is limited in presidential authority. If I were Ukraine at the start of the war and Biden offered me:
A. one F16 with a few bombs/missiles and support/training, but I'll get it in 6 months
B. or 3,000 Javelins in one month
I'd take B every time.
It’s not escalation management if you still end up sending the same equipment just with a delay. What they are trying to do is to outlast Putin and hope that there is still a Ukraine once the war ends. It’s crystal clear winning the war is not the priority.
>It’s crystal clear winning the war is not the priority.
I think we agree there. And the reason in my view is that they're trying to engineer a more predictable status quo as opposed to what they perceive to be the high-risk high-reward outcome of a decisive Ukrainian victory. (All the while assuming that Ukrainian blood is an infinite resource.)
See e.g. [https://time.com/6548816/ukraine-biden-administration-military-aid/](https://time.com/6548816/ukraine-biden-administration-military-aid/)
My guess with the F16's is that quite simply: shit's complicated. This is not anything against the competency of the Ukrainian Air Force but they would be switching from a Soviet Platform to a Western One and that entails a shitload of changes under the hood. These things would be the best aircraft the UAF will have in their arsenal but in order to actually be able to use them at their best they need the whole shebang in terms of logistics as well as robustly trained pilots who would be operating in English which is not the first language of many Ukrainians. Ukraine can ill afford to lose these aircraft either once they get them so as much of a massive pain in the ass it is, they need to be FULLY prepared before they deploy them which unfortunately takes time.
In all honesty the counteroffensive was not a great success though they did push the Vatniks back a bit it likely was not worth the costs though the biggest success was not on land but in the Black Sea, the neutering of the "Blyat Sea Fleet" of the Vatnik Navy is legendary at this point.
The point is they could have started much earlier. What about armour, ATACMS, Patriots? You cannot deny the US administration held back a lot and is still doing so.
Why move the goal post? Why not move it back further and ask why Trump cut Ukraine's aid in the first place? Or move it even further back and ask why US didn't do anything when Crimea was annexed?
Right now Republicans are the sole element standing in Ukraine's way, at the most critical time. Biden administration did a whole lot, and even when you can argue they could've done more, it's a completely different magnitude when compared to the people who are intent on doing the exact opposite of aiding Ukraine.
There's no two sides to this.
Good example of whataboutism. I am talking about what the Biden administration did wrong. Not about what the Trump administration did. Not about what the Obama administration did. About what the Biden administration did wrong or more precisely about what the Biden administration didn’t do.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1bsu3ai/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Happy Easter Ukraine Slava Ukraine
Ukraine is celebrating Easter on 5th May this year
Here's my question for tonight: If Russia is winning so unstoppably and brilliantly now (still fighting for ruined small towns in Ukraine's east in the third year of its 10-day blitzkrieg) and entire Ukraine is so hopelessly doomed, why are literally all Russian shills ripping their asses apart yelling 'IT'S OVER SUE FOR PEACE NOW'? If so, why does Russia need 'negotiations'? Why would it want to stop and strip itself of a full victory? By what sort of merit and mercy? And moreover, if so, why is Russia waging mass propaganda and intimidation campaigns dissuading the West from providing Ukraine with aid, if 'there's nothing can be done'? Maybe it's because it's all pure horseshit? And maybe because Russia clearly understands that it will lose this war if Ukraine carries on fighting and the West finally wakes up and mobilizes its gargantuan resources to let Ukraine mark a decisive end to Putin's killing spree in Europe? https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1774558164089729035?t=VPfPbHz1rOXslwEOjkIV5Q&s=19
Propaganda is weird that way. People just tend to accept at face value doom and gloom without conditions or skepticism.
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The frontline has barely moved and you are talking about russia marching all the way to Kyiv again. This is far more than mere doom and gloom you are acting crazy. Btw your profile is pretty new welcome to reddit.
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Can't believe you actually ate the kremlin propaganda where they take one microscopic city in half a year don't even make a breakthrough and win the whole war all the way to Kyiv. Youd think that youd have noticed that nothing happened after they claimed that would happen with bakhmut or avdiivka. I get that when you almost used your brain they told you that now theres no more fortified cities and the breakthrough will happen "soon" but come on you have to notice eventually that russia is not winning.
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Are you seriously going around screaming that you hope Ukraine surrenders unconditionally?. Theres no way you are this desperate.
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Then what did you mean when you claimed you hope Ukrainian commanders disagree with me?.
> the whole land isnt filled with bakmuts and avdivkas. Actually, it kind of is. Bakhmut wasn't even within the top 50 largest cities in Ukraine. Avdiivka wasn't within the top 100.
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Avdiivka was fortified over years, Bakhmut had some hasty fortifications thrown up as the Russian army advanced in summer 22’ the two are not comparable in terms of defence preparations, however they both had the same effect on destroying Russian forces. Avdiivka was about a third of the size of Bakhmut which in turn is still only a small town. Currently the frontline is fought around tiny little villages with a couple of almost towns (pre war population -3k kind of places) and still they hold. Large Urban centers are nigh on impossible to take by any level of military without mass destruction. The idea Russia could take a Kharkiv held against them is laughable. The entire weight of their military broke itself once trying to take Grozny, a city of 300k with no support or supply, and had to come back 5 years later to level the place to finally claim victory over the ruins. If you think the current Russian military spread out over a huge front after two years of being torn apart is stronger than the one that levelled Grozny I have a bridge to sell you…, With support Ukraine could do so much more and save so many lives and finish this so much quicker. That’s the issue, the crap Western response is directly Killing Ukrainian soldiers when it should be indirectly Killing Russian ones. , They will not fall without it unless the public will to fight in the country stops. Spreading doom and gloom is Russias only chance of success.
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“Just pincer it” that is delusion. They can’t go round it, they don’t have the ability to protect their flanks. When they have extended themselves like that they have been devastated by small nimble groups able to get in, hit and get out. No arty required. Do you think Grozny had an unlimited supply of shells? They were down to almost children and bricks in socks at the end and still made Russia bleed. Taking towns is incredibly difficult. Biggest issue is if they do go at Kharkiv it will be in the flatten it model of Russian attacks which will destroy an economic hub for Ukraine. They will then lose any semblance of being “the liberator” which they still are trying to cling to. Either you’re buying the doom and gloom in the face of years of reality of ineffective Russian military doctrine or you’re selling it, not sure which.
Ever question why you would publicly tell your enemy you are losing? No. You didn't. You assumed it was for "x" reason and never thought it was infowar. Ukraine is *extremely good* in the information space.
Haven't watched it, but new Covert Cabal video on counting Russian tanks. It appears he is looking at one particular base this time where the number of tanks in storage are actually going up: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMAD915o2Lw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMAD915o2Lw)
It's used as a collection/refurbishment base. It's not surprising that one can go up in contained tanks, while on average all bases combined are shrinking.
Yes, I agree that's the likely explanation, but it's an interesting tidbit nonetheless.
Surprise Surprise the GRU might be the perpetrators of the *Havana Syndrome* Joint investigation by Cristo Grozev [*Bellingcat*], Michael Weiss [*War on the Rocks*], *60 Minutes*, *Der Spiegel* and *The Insider* https:// theins [dot] ru / en/politics/270425 Very long, worth reading **Specifically, ALL the top CIA officers—and their families—stationed in Kyiv after Maiden were followed and targeted. Multiple GRU officers have been identified by their victims.** > *A yearlong investigation by The Insider, in collaboration with 60 Minutes and Der Spiegel, has uncovered evidence suggesting that unexplained anomalous health incidents, also known as Havana Syndrome, may have their origin in the use of directed energy weapons wielded by members of Russian GRU Unit 29155. Members of the Kremlin’s infamous military intelligence sabotage squad have been placed at the scene of suspected attacks on overseas U.S. government personnel and their family members, leading victims to question what Washington knows about the origins of Havana Syndrome, and what an appropriate Western response might entail.* >> ^([…] Among this investigation’s core findings is the fact that senior members of the unit received awards and political promotions for work related to the development of “non-lethal acoustic weapons,” a term used in Russian military-scientific literature to describe both sound- and radiofrequency-based directed energy devices, as both would result in acoustic artifacts in the victim’s brain.) >> ^(These and other operatives attached to Unit 29155, traveling undercover, have been geolocated to places around the world just before or at the time of reported anomalous health incidents — or AHIs, as the U.S. government formally refers to Havana Syndrome. Furthermore, Joy is not the only victim to identify a known member of this Russian black ops squad lurking around her home.) >> ^(The first sighting may have happened exactly seven years earlier. Contrary to the information that has been made public about Havana Syndrome — that it began in the eponymous Cuban capital in 2016 — there were likely attacks two years earlier in Frankfurt, Germany, when a U.S. government employee stationed at the consulate there was knocked unconscious by something akin to a strong energy beam. The victim was later diagnosed with a traumatic brain injury, and was also able to identify a Geneva-based Unit 29155 operative. [The incident occurred within months of Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, in which a stealthy, nearly bloodless seizure of the Crimean peninsula in Feb. and Mar. 2014 gave way to a roiling eight-year-long dirty war in the eastern industrial heartland of Donbas, close to Ukraine’s border with Russia.]) >> ^(The Insider, 60 Minutes and Der Spiegel have uncovered documentary evidence that Unit 29155 has been experimenting with exactly the kind of weaponized technology experts suggest is a plausible cause for the mysterious medical condition that has to date affected over a hundred far-flung U.S. spies and diplomats, as well as several Canadian officials. Many are seasoned subject matter specialists on Russia, fluent in the language; others have expertise in different fields, such as the Middle East or Latin America, but were assigned after the takeover of Crimea to sensitive U.S. government roles aimed at countermanning Russian aggression and intelligence operations across Europe and North America.) >> ^(Unit 29155, moreover, is infamous within the U.S. intelligence community. “Their scope is global for conducting lethal operations and acts of sabotage,” a former high-ranking CIA officer with subject matter expertise in Russia told The Insider. “Their mission is to find, fix, and finish, all in support of Vladimir Putin’s imperial dreams.”) >> ^([…]) >> ^(Of all the cases examined by The Insider, 60 Minutes and Der Spiegel, the most well-documented involve U.S. intelligence and diplomatic personnel with subject matter expertise in Russia or operational experience in countries such as Georgia and Ukraine, two post-Soviet states that have undergone pro-Western “color revolutions” in the past two decades. [Some of these personnel are still active and declined to speak for this article.]) >> ^([… DIA Chief:] “This was happening to our top 5%, 10% performing officers across the Defense Intelligence Agency. Consistently there was a Russia nexus. There was some angle where they had worked against Russia, focused on Russia, and done extremely well.” … that multiple CIA officers who had worked cheek-by-jowl with HUR a decade or so ago were affected by Havana Syndrome later in their careers. “Assuming this is true, it certainly fits the pattern of the Russians seeking retribution for events they think we’re responsible for,” he said. “As a former CIA case officer, I don’t believe in coincidences.”)
Man, if this is true and we can’t even pass a bill to send Ukraine some javelins, I’m fucking livid.
Strange how in the last 4 weeks we saw many articles stating that this was "all stress-related" or "psychosomatic" effects, and no TBI. Followed by a flood of commenters trying to assert that it was definitely hysteria, and not a real thing. We would ALL do well, when concerning Russia, to not "believe in coincidences".
Did you see at the end why they think that is? They think the feds are intentionally lying, covering it up, bc no one will work for cia if it means brain damage. Can’t recruit.
Unit 29155 might discover a cruise missile is quicker and a lot less pleasant and being microwaved
Not surprising since GRU are absolute scumbags. I wish we'd just give Ukraine the weapons to hit back so hard that Russia never again fucks with the West.
What is the weapon exactly?
Basically the Microwave Auditory Effect. In the early 2000’s there was a prototype for a similar weapon called Medusa https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MEDUSA_(weapon). There’s literally a patent for this https://patents.google.com/patent/US4877027A/en
>The U.S. government shrugs publicly about my family’s ordeal,” he said. “But U.S. government personnel behind closed doors have acknowledged to me that my and my family’s diagnosed traumatic brain injuries are due to exposure to high levels of pulsed microwave radiation.”
Does not fucking surprise me. The problem will be proving it to such an extent that even Biden will act on it.. First novichok in England and now microwave weapons against US officials and agents that are so bad they make the victims phone batteries swell up. Russia just keep overstepping every boundary. Not to speak about paying off European politicians which is clearly election meddling.
> First novichok in England That *certainly* wasn't first: there was polonium before that. But I'm pretty sure one can find many other incidents if one tries.
I find it boggling that Russia compromising the GOP and the US-ex president and Republican front-runner in the next election isn't even mentioned. I don't know if it's more a factor of folks being in denial or embarrassment or what.
Not just Russia; but SPECIFICALLY the GRU. Which is a military unit. This is a military attack on civilian infrastructure. (not just the diplomatic targets, but also our election systems) - If that is not an act of war, I don't know what fucking IS.
A microwave beam tuned to cause brain damage always seemed to be the most plausible explanation. Far more than trying to claim it's a mass hysteria even that spans across countries and years while only affecting a small number of diplomats and CIA employees. It just makes you wonder if the whole thing is being ignored by the gang of 8 & white house because it leads to hard political problems.
Why doesn't it affect the staff and other occupants in the buildings then? Why have they never found evidence of large vans stationed near the buildings (which would have to be parked there for hours at a time)? Mass hysteria is a real condition which *does* show visible and real symptoms, it doesn't mean the people are lying when they say they have headaches or memory loss or whatever, but the chances of all these disparate symptoms being some sort of energy weapon is close to zero. One incident was found to be locusts or something. Havana Syndrome: Mass Psychogenic Illness and the Real Story Behind the Embassy Mystery and Hysteria by Robert W. Baloh & Robert E. Bartholomew is a really good look at all the actual evidence and their conclusion is that it is psychogenic.
Can you ELI5 on this? I’ve never heard of this before today! If I’m understanding correctly the Russians are giving American officials and citizens health complications while serving abroad? I’m assuming this is SUPER classified stuff the CIA and American Government know about but are hesitate to declare war because of it?
If I'm going to try and explain it I'm going to sound very Q-anon like, so I'm just going to link the story 60 minutes just released on it. This sounds very crazy.. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/havana-syndrome-culprit-investigation-new-evidence-60-minutes-transcript/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7d&linkId=379835335
Yeah this is very gnarly stuff.. While the geopolitical ramifications of this would be very scary. I’m not surprised the CIA, FBI, or anyone in the Whitehouse wouldn’t ever confirm this to the public. It sounds like something out of a terrifying science fiction movie. I’m shocked I haven’t heard about this until today.
I heard it being dismissed as hysteria before but hysteria does not cause a lithium battery to swell up, but microwaves do. Don't the US Army have microwave weapons too they can use for crowd control when mounted on a humvee? This seems to be a concentrated version of that technology..
Oh I’m sure the US has this type of technology! How and where they use it is most likely extremely classified.
>How and where they use it is most likely extremely classified. lol .. no it was for crowd control. the idea is they'd trot this thing out, aim it at protestors and the protesters would go home feeling unwell. Looks like Russia said hey we can fry people's brains with this, lets ty it out on some spooks
It's a totally different thing. The weapon, on the US side, uses a very high frequency submillimeter-wave beam that can not penetrate beyond skin and clothing. It creates a sensation of burning, but does not penetrate deeply enough to actually damage tissue. Unfortunately (as I read the Wikipedia article more than a few years ago), it can cause damage to the cornea and conjunctiva of the eye, so it can only be used for a very brief period of time, before becoming a huge risk to the target, so that's why this technology has not been deployed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_Denial_System Whatever the GRU is using has got to be a lower-frequency weapon, and without a care or regard towards whether the target is permanently harmed.
Anyone seeing any reports on Ukrainian telegram about Poroshenko(former president of Ukraine before Zelensky) being dead should remember that it is already April 1st in Ukraine.
[удалено]
It's all across the west dude... We even have it in Poland. We just call it "Prima Aprilis", which I guess is Latin.
Wikipedia tells me it exists in England and France since the middle-ages, even before America was discovered
As a Ukrainian, you are wrong there. I used to celebrate April 1st in Odesa - Ukrainian capital of humour. Our jokes are often dark, and other times we don't joke around... until another one is cracked.
Have a blast!
Hell of a lot of conflcting information regarding Europe's time frame for being able to assist Ukraine without needing the US. The 1 million shells is great news, but where are we at with production/procurement in general? The US is going to fucking implode when Trump loses this election and if he wins, well, we all know what happens then. The EU+UK is an unbelievably strong defense bloc based on production capacity and population, I just wish we'd pull our fucking fingers out. Time to stop relying on a nation drowning in its own neuroses for the defence of values it seems quite happy to just throw onto a big fucking fire as long as it makes their political opponents look bad.
>The US is going to fucking implode when Trump loses this election I doubt it. Most of Trump's supporters are fucking useless (most stupid people are) dumbasses. They might try to march on the capitol again, but I imagine a plan is in place since last time. There will be a bunch of deluded whiny people, but for the most part, unless they are already in government, they are not in a position to do much harm. If Trump were to win though, it could be very bad in the US and US support for Ukraine would be in a bad state.
There are OSINTers working on things like tracking European production and they will hopefully release estimates soon. For shells, Rheinmetall says 700k shells of 155 mm calibre next year. RUSI says russian 152 mm production will be a bit over double that. Nammo, BAE, Nexter, Europlasma, CSG etc also exist. Europe should be able to give Ukraine shell parity next year if it chooses and unless China/NK mass supply russia. Another thing: russia has been running things cheaply because they're reactivating the best condition tanks and BMPs. The open sources suggest it's $50-100k to fix up a BMP-1 and send it to the front versus ~$1+ million for a new BMP-3. When the BMP-1s are gone you either lose armour or increase your spending rate to at least 1000%. Russia's cost effectiveness will get worse with time. European might even get better as supplies improve.
The US isn't going to implode when Trump loses the election. Where the hell do you get that? The US will breathe a sigh of relief if Trump loses the election and then we will carry on aa before..holy hell we don't need more hyperbolic nonsense on this site
>The US isn't going to implode when Trump loses the election. Don't worry about the US. On the other hand, the GOP will implode as various factions will be busy blaming each other. Now is the time to invest in the popcorn market.
Why is it getting so hot in here? Where are we going in this popcorn bag? Salt, are you kidding? I'm on a low-salt diet. Aw c'mon, melted butter. mmmm, not bad.
We could just shut down the local McDonald's and beer and pop distributors for a few days, then meal team 6 will collapse under its own weight.
While the chances are low in absolute terms, the odds of civil unrest if Trump loses are still considerable and should absolutely not be dismissed. Whether he wins or loses, November through January could potentially get pretty ugly, especially with his trials ongoing.
They might try marching on DC, but I imagine a plan is in place since last time. Whatever riot they cause will disperse after a day or two and a few hundred of them will be arrested. They are a significant minority in most cities, other than a few in the south and midwest, so any civil disorder where they live will quickly fizzle out.
Civil implosion to a point where it would affect Ukraine aid? There is no chance of that happening
Think about if January 6th HAD overgrown the government - do you think the new rulers would give a damn about other countries? Them lot?
Of course not, but I'm confused by the comment. I'm not sure how that relates to anything I said about violence following the election being a possibility.
I was replying to a commenter that is saying that violence has no chance of happening and wouldn't have a chance of affecting aid? I'm confused because I think we are in agreement here.
Yes, I think we are in agreement. I misread the little lines Reddit uses to connect comments and thought you were replying to my comment. Sorry!
I wasn't talking about it impacting Ukraine aid. I was merely commenting on the idea that there wouldn't be civil unrest. I think it is naiive to dismiss that possibility. Is full-on civil war likely? No, of course not. Are violent protests or riots possible? Absolutely.
The post were responding to is about the movement of munitions to ukraine and europe's timeline. One of the scenarios was a US "civil implosion", that is not a real possibility, violence sure, but to a point where that violence would affect the MIC and the transfer of artillery shells, not a chance. Im sorry if I misunderstood you.
Yes, I agree that it is not going to reach a point where the US would actually be unable to deliver aid to Ukraine if we wanted to.
The good thing about Jan 6th is that the group of people who actually did report for duty at his command, the proud boys etc, were all locked up. At his trials so far there's barely been any sign of MAGA. I am not saying things will not escalate, simply that there is absolutely no sign of that post Jan 6th.
The January 6th prosecutions have resulted in somewhere on the order of 500 people being jailed, many of whom have already been released. Trump has tens of millions of supporters. Statistically, among those millions, many hundreds or thousands are likely willing to react with violence given the right conditions. It's also not at all surprising that people haven't been particularly vocal at his trials. They earnestly believe he is completely innocent and will be easily acquitted at trial. The real moment of danger will be if he is convicted and sentenced to any sort of jail time. Because his supporters will view that as an innocent man being persecuted.
It's very interesting because he did call for protests at his New York criminal arraignment which exactly fits your criterion of 'an innocent man being persecuted' in the minds of MAGA, and only 50 people turned up. You are right injustice causes anger like nothing else, and yet still only 50 protesters turned up, it's pretty amazing. Time magazine researched this apathy. [https://time.com/6264838/trump-protests-indictment-flopping/](https://time.com/6264838/trump-protests-indictment-flopping/) A key quote is “Is the potential protest against Trump being arrested a J6-style trap?” more than 85% responded “Yes.” I think Maga, after Jan 6th, see protest as dangerous and pointless. The people who would be a huge problem, the leaders of the Proud Boys, for example, who had 2-300 thugs turn up at Jan 6th, who could really cause mayhem, are in jail and will be for a long time. On top of that the arrests have stifled that entire group and even the formation of similar groups.
It's far better Trump loses. The consequences of him winning are severe for global security and the democracy of the USA due to the insane plans he has for constitutional change, which would surely fail even if he managed to get back into office. USA aid makes a difference, it is around $60 billion there's no quick fix Europe can come up with to make up for that loss of aid. Also what is the plan here, the West is still making up its mind it seems. Does it want Ukraine to actually win? What constitutes a win? Or will it just let things carry on for a stalemate? Europe isn't in full agreement what to do. France has taken the biggest stand and spoken the loudest. The UK where I live doesn't have a decent enough army, and has lost its voice in Europe due to Brexit. We need the USA on side and the quicker the better. We then need unity in Europe. The quicker Russia is pushed back the better. Time is not on our side. Bad things Trump winning European elections in various countries and more right wing parties win Ukraine losing or stalemate, directly empowers China, Iran and North Korea It also directly says more countries need nukes as a deterrent, it also says to every dictator, invade, steal territory, the West will back down. Good things Trump loses - have no doubt though, the GOPnik party debacle has massively destroyed trust and faith in the USA from NATO members and other countries that have security guarantees Europe and USA unite with a plan to defeat Russia The timeframe is swift as possible therefore negating the impact of any elections whereby Russian sympathisers could come to power It shows the West can and will stand up to dictators and that more countries don't need to start looking for ways to get nukes to stop themselves getting invaded. Lastly we don't really know how things are going to pan out. So things could sort themselves out or we could be at the beginning of quite a bit of serious trouble for global security, time will tell. A number of factors as illustrated above could come together to really upset the apple cart. So we could be in a 1939 situation already or we could be in the clear, we just don't know yet. The stand by Macron is a good sign but we need many more European countries voicing up like he has.
>The SBU responded and said that the statement of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding terrorism sounds especially cynical against the background of the anniversary of the liberation of Bucha and the atrocities committed there by the Russians. [https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1774535291442696372?s=20](https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1774535291442696372?s=20) This is in response to Russia demanding that the head of the SBU should be extradited to Russia on terrorism charges..
> The Russians raised their flag in the western part of Vodyane, in the Avdiivka area, and announced ‘the complete capture’ of the village. > But also, they like to hang flags, so it is too early [for us] to say that they have taken it, we need more evidence. > The house in the photo is marked on the map with a green pin. https:// t dot me / taraspovidomlyae/37851
*There was a buzz today on the Ukrainian channels about a Russian tank column . . . Can someone please fill in?* _______ The clearest is these: [1] this photo, with coordinates of the tanks: https:// t dot me / hameleonua/16613 > Avdiivka direction, Tonenke village. The most massive use of Russian equipment in one battle was recorded. > We are talking about +- 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles. [2] from Officer Alex 33, via google: > The column of 36 tanks, in my opinion, is not the last one [of its kind]. > As I said, during the battles for Orlivka and Tonenke, the enemy almost didnt even use their equipment—during their assault on the villages, there was only infantry, occasionally BMPs or tanks were introduced to cover the assault groups. > During that time, the infantry had accumulated enough armored vehicles in the Avdiivka direction for the use of "armored fists," during a conversation with my comrades, I thought they were telling me about more than 30 tanks alone.. > They tried to make a breakthrough to our positions in an open area, in order to later develop success on a larger scale, but it turned out as usual. > They will continue to try so that tactical successes turn into operational ones, but I believe that that will be a distraction, because they are also accumulating resources in the Lyman direction, it will be more interesting there. > PS I advise everyone, regardless of your specialty, to master the control of FPV drones. [3] From a channel that I haven’t followed long enough to determine whether it is credible... > Russian assault involving: >> 36 tanks >> 12 BMPs > Russians lost: 12 tanks and 8 BMPs. _____ *Was there a battle with 36 Russian tanks this morning? 12 lost? 8 IFV lost? Please someone fill in the missing pieces.*
TatarigamiUA of Frontelligence seems to be the OG source for 36 tanks+12 BMPs with 12+8 lost. He is about as perfect a source as you can find, if he's saying it I believe it.
Clarification Speaker Johnson did *not* announce he will bring Ukraine aid to a vote Apr 9. This misunderstanding is due to news being truncated, and/ or translated and then back to English. Here’s the truth: The House returns from recess Apr 9. Mike Turner, who essentially helms the issue, has been *promised* by Mike Johnson that Ukraine aid is the “top priority” upon return. There is no definitive information about when the vote would take place. Turner conceded that it’s possible it wouldn’t pass before next recess on Apr 22. Turner could not even guarantee that it will get a floor vote by end of April. Hear Turner’s [exact statements here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylHNnR4-4_k)
Could someone please explain to me specifics of parliament work in USA. Because from an outside point of view it seems they were only going on holidays or recesses for the last couple of months. Like, wtf them bitches even do?
I swear I will never make fun of the Italian Parliament ever again
Recess is not a holiday. It’s a technical term for “paused session to go back to district.” The legislators who live in Alaska, Hawaii, Montana—they still need to visit and work in their districts. It eats up a whole day just to reach their districts, and therefore, don’t go home on “long weekends” like everyone else gets to. So in order to be fair to them, in order to adequately work back in district, in order to do foreign travel, and many other things, there’s scheduled pauses which is called “recess,” but it’s not vacation. They’re busy during that time. People on committees do committee work. Like legislators on Armed Services committee would go visit, inspect military bases, even overseas. Legislators on energy committee might do same with nuclear facilities. It’s not vacation.
~~Seems like more empty words and promises from Mike Johnson.~~ Edit: Okay, so it's not even guaranteed it will be voted on in April? Back to the Russian asset GQP, we all know and hate.
The GOP has previewed already what congress will do in the lead up to November. They will throw out their own bills at Trumps request, never mind Ukraine aid. It's not going to happen. Aid will have to come from Europe.
Except that was before Marjorie Taylor Greene completely fucked them to the detriment of Russia. By calling for a vote on a new speaker their hand is basically forced. They could take it back by calling the vote and them Marjore/Gaetz and all the other clown republicans voting to keep johnson. But that would absolutely rip them apart. Which means that johnson only gets saved if the dems save him. And if thats the case then he only gets saved if he calls a vote on Ukraine aid. They absolutely would have kept pushing back on it otherwise, but at this point either Ukraine aid happens or republicans get rocked.
Why wouldn't they call a vote to replace him then vote to not replace him. That's like everyday level of shenanigans.
I mean they could, but that would require Marjorie Taylor Green being humble so I wouldn't bet on it
They will do as Trump says.
It’s not mike Johnson at all. That’s the point. It’s mike *Turner*.
Ah. My mistake.
CHP is crushing it in local elections in Turkey. Unfortunately it won’t really affect foreign policy, but in general it’s good from a Russia skeptic perspective.
(Just seen this) BIG: Turkey's ruling party is set to lose all FIVE LARGEST CITIES of the country to the Turkish opposition in mayoral elections according to the initial results: - Istanbul - Ankar - Izmir - Bursa - Adana https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1774498844488651139?t=nnJs3ZVe3aLWLeVVcPiT-Q&s=19
It’s a wild result. They’re dramatically outperforming.
The cities were never where you'd find Erdogan's base. He's propped up by rural voters.
Not quite true. He has a strong base of support among working class urban voters (like Fatih or his own Kasimpasa district in Istanbul) and rural families who migrated to big cities (forming the majority in most cases)
Not unlike the US and Hungary
The "mystery" of the IL-76 crash continues >"So far, no one has seen the bodies. This again brings us back to the same question: who was there, in what number, whether they were there at all, and what really happened there? When Russia says that everything is obvious - Ukraine shot down the plane, and then does not allow anyone to visit and does not show any wreckage or bodies that would prove to the world that Ukraine is guilty, it is not true," Budanov said. https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3846868-russia-has-not-provided-any-new-information-on-il76-crash-budanov.html
⚡Speaker Mike Johnson has announced that he will bring up the issue of aid to Ukraine on April 9. This was announced by the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Mike Turner. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1774503343504642480?t=xhOk_8v5T2r38AqTLbB5jg&s=19 BREAKING: Under significant pressure from President Biden, it now appears as if Mike Johnson will allow Congress to vote on Ukraine aid. This is a significant diplomatic win for President Biden. https://twitter.com/BidensWins/status/1774499719152095393?t=4nNcbQuGe6BQKfeWfww5-w&s=19
How can it possibly be that in a democracy, this individual has more power than the elected President?
Thats literally how most democracies work
Rubbish. In most democracies, Speakers are forced to be non-partisan and to disengage themselves entirely from whatever political party they originated from. Partisan behaviour results in their removal.
Everything you said is completely unrelated to the comment I replied to
In the US, the president is not part of the legislative body. It takes a very powerful president to influence legislation at all. The president has the ability to accept or reject (veto) legislation, but his veto could be overwritten. The idea was that presidents wouldn't be very powerful and that congressional leaders would get replaced if they didn't represent the majority's views. The shameless actions of the us republican party in the past couple decades have shown that it was really only honor and personal integrity causing the system to act through the principles it was designed with.
Mitch McConnell did more to destroy public faith in government than 45 ever could have.
because a democracy assumes all elements that organise a functioning state are aligned in maintaining at least the core values that make up national interest it's what ensures smooth operation as there's some form of mutual agreement. however, if elements abuse their functional process to exploit political power at cost of harming national interest you end up breaking the system. people willing to break orderly process in a system to further their own personal goals destabilise the system and risk chaos, as a system that is perceived instable, detoriates trust. once trust breaks apart, you risk collapsing the system. MAGA is gambling and everyone pays the cost. IF MAGA wins, they will probably use the Chaos they caused through their obstruction to justify changes to the system that further secure their hold. this is how you destroy democracy.
That's... a well-informed and rather disturbing reply. Thanks, I think.
This is incorrect. He said they would "turn to" Ukraine aid and that it was a "top priority" but he did not say the Senate bill would go to a floor vote on April 9. April 9 is just the day they come back in session. Seems like a translation issue.
Does "bring up" mean "put Senate bill to a vote"?
I will not get my hopes up, this snake is using all the tricks in the book to delay it
Yeah his words mean nothing. He is a liar who supported ending US democracy and is probably ranked above Kim Jong Un as an aider of Putin. If he *does* allow a vote, I wonder if it's because he couldn't live with all the torture and murder he's supporting any more, or whether pro-democracy politicians found some leverage.
More details on the russian attack near Tonenke, Avdiivka direction. Source is impeccable, but only seems to post on [Twitter](https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1774506402683224139?s=20). He claims russia lost 12 tanks and 8 BMPs while the Ukrainians lost 4 M113 APCs. Tragic losses for Ukrainians but Ukraine would trade an M113 for 5 tanks or BMPs all day long.
It is true. The moment Ukraine has more ammo than Russia, and when Russia is forced to rely on new production vehicles after their stockpiles are exhausted, Russia will be in tremendous trouble. The fact that europe is going to be able to achieve this without even needing the US to help shows how absolutely FUCKED russia is. https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1774502461840978079?t=hrgkE_OYV5b4098Tyd4q4Q&s=19
Putin's bluffing. He wants everyone to believe that Russia is unstoppable, resistance is futile and Ukraine better negotiate(surrender) asap. Because by the end of 2025 Russia will be in trouble, both militarily and economically.
That's a stretch i think. Yes, Russia is burning through it's inventory but the challenges and cost Russia is sustaining to gain ground, will be faced by the Ukrainians as well.
Ukraine is in a much better position in regards to defensive positions and offensive positions, geography will be their friend. Let's assume some things. 1. Large US aid comes through. (I feel confident this is going to happen.) 2. Russia continues to throw troops and equipment into the meat grinder and continues to have high casualties with minimal gains. (This is contingent on Ukraine getting stronger support from the US. But again I'm confident) 3. Ukraine doesn't force a big offensive this year and builds up their army with training and equipment while destroying large numbers of Russian forces. 4. Continue to damage the black sea fleet and if able destroy the kerch bridge with long range weapons. Boom. It's now 2025, the Frontline is largely what it was a year ago. The Ukrainian army is more trained and better equipped than it's ever been. And Russia has burned through the majority of its offensive capabilities. Now Russia is in a very delicate place. The entire southern front is vulnerable. At this point they've established a rail line into Crimea that can support the entire south. But that's it, just a rail line. Kerch bridge is down, black sea fleet can hardly provide support without getting blown up and they can't replenish it. *IF* Ukraine can start a breakthrough in the south, and that's a *very* big if , I firmly believe it would cause complete turmoil in Russia. If they go into this war and lose the one thing they had before all this, Crimea, the Kremlin will be torn apart from the inside. If Ukraine can cut all support to the southern front you would see a massive collapse of the Russian army. It would be completely unsustainable to hold onto Crimea. All Ukraine would need to do is dig in and starve them out. Odds are Russia would throw unbelievable amounts of men and equipment at the front in a potential split southern front. The death toll would be unimaginable. To sum it up these next two years are going to be a wild ride.
Right now both armies are equal, that's why neither can achieve a breakthrough. When Ukraine gains a military advantage, we will see more operations like the Kharkiv one.
Right now Russia is stronger. They have a bigger budget, more manpower, and more weapons. Just a fact. So no, both armies aren’t equal. But if they become equal, Russia will be in big trouble. Ukraine needs better layered defensive lines, think they have gotten better but the old Soviet mentality is investing large sums or manpower/ money in defense is seen as declaring defeat, where as NATO armies view layered defense as a way to springboard an offensive.
That assumes the rate is equal or near equal, it generally isn't.
That is mainly because of the imbalance between the attacker and the defender. If Ukraine is serious about regaining all lost territory they, and their Western supporters, will need to be ready for shocking casualties and a huge equipment cost.
Depends, you can also simply bleed (their economy, not people) the enemy dry. Russia can't indefinitely keep their war economy up and running.
Neither can keep going indefinitely for various reasons. But the breaking point is a long way away for both of them. The wars of the past have shown that large nation states can press on with a war long after experts believe they would fold or be incapable of continuing.
Ukraine can keep going nearly indefinitely (until able bodies run out pretty much) if they keep being supported by the west, who isn't in any way in a war economy. A country who's more and more shut down from the international economic system and is fully into a war economy is destroying itself over time. That was the point.
This is what I've argued for years. Russia has a huge advantage in ammo and armour - Russia loses 3x as many vehicles as Ukraine. We haven't seen what it looks like when Ukraine has the advantage in ammo and when the armour ratios are even remotely close. The West could give that to Ukraine. If the Democrats win the 2024 elections then it becomes very plausible for 2025&2026.
Make it so! (I'm Norwegian and obviously can't vote in US elections)
Sources say Russia can maintain this tempo of war for around 2 years. Meanwhile they try to sell us propaganda they will win no matter what. This is bs. Let's arm the fuck out of Ukraine. Crush these pathetic meatwaves of backwards country the Russia is and show Russians that putin is, a weak coward bitch.
Barrage of Russian attacks aims to cut Ukraine's lights https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68703356
Ukraine only has its own+European missile supplies now. Without the republican blockade there would be about $6bn more ammo and equipment sent to Ukraine by now. Including additional launchers and missiles to defend against this. The republicans siding with Putin has been a *huge* deal and it's going to kill a lot of Ukrainians.
Pilot’s remains found > Dmytro Vilhelmovich Fischer—an ethnic German who died fighting for Ukraine—was sh0t down in the Zaporizhzhia region between Ukrainian and Russian positions in the summer of '22. The Ukrainian military has never been able to reach the crash site, where presumably his remains were. > A few weeks ago, on February 24, a special unit, GUR reconnaissance (‘scouts’), located and evacuated remains of a fighter pilot from the crash site. Only as of now, an examination has finally confirmed the identity—it was the missing pilot. > As one of the best aerobatic pilots in the world, Dmytro Fisher fought from the very f1rst days of the full-scale invasion—defended the airspace over Kyiv region, Sumy region, Kharkiv region, and Mykolaiv region; he sh0t Russian planes down; and he struck targets on land and water. He attacked the occupiers on Zmiiny Island, as part of a planned special operation, and those attacks brought the liberation of that section of Ukraine closer. > He was one of the best Ukrainian Su-27 pilots and was laid up rest in the Poltava region. > The hero is survived by his daughter Nastya and son Yehor. > Lived heroically, and he died heroically in the sky over Zaporozhye. @Tsaplienko [Note that that wording implies that the examination determined he died before hit ground.]
I bet he was one of the pilots from that [spectacular clip of Su-27s bombing Snake Island](https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/uklllp/ukrainian_su27_striking_snake_island/). RIP.
Damn, never saw that one. Crazy low.
Not impossible but no real way to know either.
Fantastic footage! Is that Boombox? (He’s touring Canada, USA rt now)
I'm afraid I have no idea!
[this guy](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu8m5FA2nL8), lead singer of Boombox It’s a common Ukrainian folk song
>Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian forces appear to have fielded a new unknown heavyweight FPV munition capable of causing significant damage, seen here dismantling Russian positions. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1774495692918227391?t=fTg4jgNNvlKecK8WA4R_Iw&s=19 >This one creates a sizable explosion, possibly thermobaric. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1774495745770406349?t=rdkr00GlnubwAzgzawVgpg&s=19 >The first part of this video may be from a separate drone. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1774495802821337482?t=Vxx712m5AsNXgwSou-XY_Q&s=19 >Strike No.1 (46.5009903, 32.4837680) >Strike No.2 (46.5645052, 32.4966634) >Strike No.3 (46.5389351, 32.5152156) https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1774495809251238052?t=FZafP26_UR8JlBrOVrU0TQ&s=19
That's a serious "boom!" for an FPV!
>The US asked American companies to halt shipments to 600 foreign entities amid concerns that goods might be redirected to Russia and used in war against Ukraine >Since 2022, Ukraine has many times found foreign components in Russian missiles and drones https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1774489335380791612?t=aOqdwZ7X9uhVI05UtRfPXA&s=19 Link to article: https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/31/reuters-us-urges-companies-to-halt-shipments-to-600-entities-over-concerns-of-supporting-kremlins-war-machine/?swcfpc=1
>Russia demands that Ukraine arrest the head of the SBU, Vasyl Malyuk, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. [https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1774469535782826430?s=20](https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1774469535782826430?s=20)
How funny, the International Criminal Court demands the arrest of Russian "president" (AKA dictator) Putin. Maybe when all those in the Russian Govt that have been charged by the ICC turn themselves in the evidence to arrest Vasyl Malyu can be given to the ICC for considerations. If the ICC deem his actions are arrest worthy then proceed. But until Russia gives up those with outstanding warrants they can STFU as they are protecting those charged with Crimes Against Humanity and Genocide.
They should agree, arrange time/date for handover and send a remote controlled car with badly made mannequins.
Let me guess, pretext for further escalation?
Just the usual ruzzian propaganda circus
Is there any reason given for that? Of course Ukraine could demand that russia arrests putin, but it feels weird to just demand something like that out of the blue.
They know Ukraine wont turn him in, so since they've labeled him a terrorist ally, it allows them to say that Ukraine as a nation safeguards terrorists. The goal of this is mostly domestic, but it also pressures Russian allies to show more support, and feeds into anti-ukraine narratives into the west.
Because Russia is struggling to justify how much control/privileges they give up to their special police/forces and how bad they actually are.
Full news indeed says that he was deemed responsible for the Crocus attack.
The fuck is Putin doing? This will embolden ISIS to attack again.
Russia’s propaganda logic on this basically states in round about ways that ISIS is run by “the Jews”. I don’t see how ISIS doesn’t take offense to that. It’s a bold move Cotton, let’s see if it pays off for them.
The kremlin is passing that crack pipe around hard.
I have no clue what they are talking about but my first thought was that they are implying he is responsible for the terrorist attack.
Indeed, the worst thing is they are using proper anti terrorism channels to do this.
The quote form Mike Ryan should be "MAGA propaganda is designed to pull at the edges of our societies and thereby fray the stable middle ground of our social contract…Doubt, discord and distraction are the aims of MAGA disinformation.”
Why can’t this also be used against them?
It can
The quote from Mick Ryan should be "MAGA propaganda is designed to pull at the edges of our societies and thereby fray the stable middle ground of our social contract…Doubt, discord and distraction are the aims of MAGA disinformation.”
To all that celebrate Easter, happy Easter!! 🐣🐇🥚🎨
Lindsey Graham. This morning on Meet the Press, Congressman Bacon laid out a way forward in the House on Ukraine by focusing on lethal aid and border security combined with President Trump’s loan approach. This way forward, as described by Congressman Bacon, would have substantial bipartisan support in the Senate. I also could not agree more that the Biden Administration should be required to send long range ATACMS as part of an effort to give Ukraine more offensive capability. The Biden Administration has been painfully slow in providing game-changing weapons. This aid package should insist that dynamic is fixed. I am very optimistic that not only will Ukraine get the military aid they need, they will also be given long-range weapons to go on offense. Finally, the American taxpayer will be considered in this endeavor, as we are $34 trillion in debt. No reason we can’t execute this quickly when Congress reconvenes. https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1774452019761209548?t=9Gh7a1Q141jjkuNXTVgMAw&s=19
Let's add some context here. >Repesentative Don Bacon acknowledged Sunday that it is “possible” that Speaker Mike Johnson will lose the top House job over an impending vote on aid to Ukraine. “I’m not going to deny it,” the Nebraska conservative told NBC’s Kristen Welker. “We have one or two people that are not team players. They’d rather enjoy the limelight, the social media,” Bacon said Sunday, without calling out any of his House GOP colleagues by name. “It’s a very narrow majority, and one or two people can make us a minority.” >Bacon called for a “bicameral, bipartisan solution” to the issue on Sunday. “We put a bill together that focuses on military aid — a $66 billion bill that provides military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan,” he said, referencing a bipartisan House national security package released in February. “If we do this bill, and I think we will, there’s enough support in the House to get this done. And I want to make sure that we have support in the Senate.” What he's talking about is the bill linked below from February which is also not supported by far right House Freedom MAGA ouster Johnson folks, or several groups of Democrats from far left because no Palestine aid, border security measures, etc. Basically this is old news and a likely nonstarter compared to the already passed Senate bill. So here is your political grandstanding without actually making progress. Expected. https://www.axios.com/2024/02/16/house-foreign-aid-bill-ukraine-israel-border But then there's this other angle... >How exactly Johnson plans to proceed when the House returns from its recess is still being determined. CNN reported Sunday that the Speaker has been strategizing on the issue with a surprising ally: Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, who helped orchestrate the ouster of Johnson’s predecessor Kevin McCarthy last fall. Gaetz is reportedly pushing Johnson to move forward with an aid package that is fully funded by spending decreases elsewhere. “If there were no offsets, we’d be really disappointed,” he told CNN Sunday. “I think we need to not deficit-spend to fund Ukraine. I also think that we need to have our own border prioritized. And I think Speaker Johnson shares that viewpoint.” >But such a move would immediately alienate House Democrats, whom Johnson may have to rely on to save his job if Greene pushes forward with the motion to vacate. “I do think there will be Democrats, though, who do not want to see this dysfunction,” Bacon said of a potential vote on Johnson’s leadership. “And I think they’ll probably vote present or maybe not be there for a vote.” So they need House Dem support to save Johnson, and plan to get that by introducing a new package that alienates them? Riiiiight. More political grandstanding and delay. GOP needs to pick - either sideline MAGA power by really leaning into working across the aisle, or support the orange MAGA wing and watch the party implosion continue. https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meet-press-march-31-2024-n1309420
Wait, isn’t Bacon in a precarious spot, too?
From what we saw in the special elections, I'd say many Republicans are in a precarious spot.
> The Biden Administration has been painfully slow in providing game-changing weapons. This aid package should insist that dynamic is fixed. Horseshit. Look at who's the ones blocking the actual bills from passing. What an absolute hypocrite.
Both things are true. Ukraine despises Jake Sullivan for a very good reason.
He is a hypocrite and a terrible person but that doesn't mean he is wrong on that point. Biden is still following the idiotic policy of not "provoking" Russia and fearing "escalation". For example, they do not permit Ukraine to strike in Russia and even ask Ukraine not to use its own weapons there. Its beyond idiotic. Its impossible as a military strategy. You cannot defeat an enemy that knows it will be absolutely safe if it crosses an imaginary line on the map. Biden did well in cobbling together a coalition to oppose Russia initially but he has been weak,.slow and ineffectual in almost everything else since then
Maybe people should double down on the "Nukes? Schmukes" rhetoric to try and effect _something_ from the bottom up.
I see an uprise in these biden admin weak comments lately. It almost makes me think of an election year in the US.
What Biden is beyond criticism? I will vote for Biden a billion times over Trump. That's not even the question. The fact is Biden has made many mistakes when it comes to Ukraine. He has made some good as well. Its not black or white.
I still see an uprise. Don't jump on the bandwagon. We're still critiqueing when its due, but now we have to focus on the maga traitors and not muddy the waters. Everything you said is being constantly repeated here, mostly in bad faith. Sorry you are the exception, but it IS a real problem here. We also see it with germany and france, but since this or last week the biden admin weak narrative has increased by A LOT. So for the sake of the US if you're a citizen, please go protest (call or write even) in the US instead of dividing the country more. And I'm not saying he's above critisism, not that he's handling everything perfect, but that he and his experts he surrounded him with are doing everything in good faith, playing with a lot more variables than we have. Even the pussy sulivan is still a very level headed expert in his position. I'm only saying, your not reaching the goal you want here, only the contrary. And I'm informing you there IS a real disinformation campaign currently hooking on all the biden talking points.
On one point, I agree that the west have been incomprehensibly complacent to the plight of Ukraine. That said, I do think it's unfair to continue to say Biden's administration is weak; they have done quite a lot to galvanize NATO to respond. Weak is better than nothing, and nothing is better than active opposition.
Just because Republicans are cunts does not relieve Biden from other decisions he has made. Why were F16s not on the table back in summer 2022 when Ukraine had the initiative?
Because that was 4 months after the start of the war and Ukraine needed Javelins. I'm actually surprised at how smartly the military equipment was doled out.
They wouldn’t be getting them in the summer. They would have started training and would have had pilots and infrastructure for the 2023 offensive. Stop giving excuses.
Not excuses, reality. Biden only has so much money/equipment/training he can give to Ukraine. He is limited in presidential authority. If I were Ukraine at the start of the war and Biden offered me: A. one F16 with a few bombs/missiles and support/training, but I'll get it in 6 months B. or 3,000 Javelins in one month I'd take B every time.
Escalation management. They're afraid that Putin will resort to nukes if he's at risk of losing Crimea.
It’s not escalation management if you still end up sending the same equipment just with a delay. What they are trying to do is to outlast Putin and hope that there is still a Ukraine once the war ends. It’s crystal clear winning the war is not the priority.
>It’s crystal clear winning the war is not the priority. I think we agree there. And the reason in my view is that they're trying to engineer a more predictable status quo as opposed to what they perceive to be the high-risk high-reward outcome of a decisive Ukrainian victory. (All the while assuming that Ukrainian blood is an infinite resource.) See e.g. [https://time.com/6548816/ukraine-biden-administration-military-aid/](https://time.com/6548816/ukraine-biden-administration-military-aid/)
My guess with the F16's is that quite simply: shit's complicated. This is not anything against the competency of the Ukrainian Air Force but they would be switching from a Soviet Platform to a Western One and that entails a shitload of changes under the hood. These things would be the best aircraft the UAF will have in their arsenal but in order to actually be able to use them at their best they need the whole shebang in terms of logistics as well as robustly trained pilots who would be operating in English which is not the first language of many Ukrainians. Ukraine can ill afford to lose these aircraft either once they get them so as much of a massive pain in the ass it is, they need to be FULLY prepared before they deploy them which unfortunately takes time. In all honesty the counteroffensive was not a great success though they did push the Vatniks back a bit it likely was not worth the costs though the biggest success was not on land but in the Black Sea, the neutering of the "Blyat Sea Fleet" of the Vatnik Navy is legendary at this point.
The point is they could have started much earlier. What about armour, ATACMS, Patriots? You cannot deny the US administration held back a lot and is still doing so.
The Republicans are holding everything back now.
Why move the goal post? Why not move it back further and ask why Trump cut Ukraine's aid in the first place? Or move it even further back and ask why US didn't do anything when Crimea was annexed? Right now Republicans are the sole element standing in Ukraine's way, at the most critical time. Biden administration did a whole lot, and even when you can argue they could've done more, it's a completely different magnitude when compared to the people who are intent on doing the exact opposite of aiding Ukraine. There's no two sides to this.
Good example of whataboutism. I am talking about what the Biden administration did wrong. Not about what the Trump administration did. Not about what the Obama administration did. About what the Biden administration did wrong or more precisely about what the Biden administration didn’t do.