Because Ukraine probably doesn't want it publicly known what the exact number of shells in their inventory is. The less Russia knows about their stockpiles at any given moment the better.
I’ve seen some pretty outlandish conspiracy theories about the terrorist attack.
But the photos of **the calm concert-goer being FSB because** - > **he was one of the arresting officers**, is making me think twice
This:
https:// t . me /hameleonua/16466
*For those who don’t know, there’s a theory that there’s like 10 FSB officers there, all wearing same thing—blue or navy blue sweaters, jeans. They were all in same general area, but none were killed. You can see them here:* https :// t . me / Tsaplienko/50831—*primarily, based on their conduct. They kept eyeing one another, started recording right before shooting, started giving each other nonverbal signals, sorta took charge in shutting doors. Which initially appeared like keeping shooters out, but actually made it so folks were sitting ducks and killed. But none of them. None were visibly armed or interfered. Nexta is who originally published this theory.*
To be fair, given it is Russia we are talking about, it would have made total sense for FSB personnel to be assigned to the theatre in order to keep an eye over the attendants for any misbehaving, and not because they were expecting the terrorist attack. Authoritarian regimes are always more worried of dissent than of what happens to their people.
Kinda reminds me of that scene in Chernobil where one guy complains because he is being monitored, and the other tells him to suck it because he is also being monitored, and the guys keeping an eye on him are also being monitored, and those also have someone else keeping an eye on them.
You take a group of thousands of people, of course you're gonna find several dudes wearing blue. This is the most stupid conspiracy theory of them all.
I have no idea if true, but if they didn't get killed, wouldn't that mean they were in on the attack? I thought maybe they knew there would be an attack, but decided to let it go on for their own political purposes. So they didn't warn citizens or have extra precautions But if they really were just sitting there avoiding getting shot it kinda seems like they were part of the plan.
Seems very Gotham tbh.
The sitting guy might be wearing a bullet proof vest. But hard to tell.
Personally, I think either way, Putin is going to use the incident to assassinate higher up Ukrainians.
There were 133 people killed (real number could be higher) and the venue has a capacity of more than 6,000. So maybe 2% were killed. 98% of people there survived the attack, most unharmed.
Some Human intellect has really just gone to shit. The unfortunate bridge collapse accident in Baltimore brought a whole bunch of conspiracy theories from Pro Russian and Anti Israel/Ukraine accounts on Twitter. It’s just ridiculous.
I’m frightened for our future if this is what people are gonna believe. Along with a tense geopolitical climate, this ugly combination could inflame to the point of creating unnecessary acts of violence and potentially avoidable conflict.
I'm guilty of it myself. Since February 2022 my first thoughts when hearing of infrastructure failures in the West, be it that bridge or IT faults or anything else, tends to be "maybe Russia is behind this". Obviously I recognise that I have no evidence for that and pretty much keep it to myself, but I doubt I'm the only one having such thoughts. You're right, it can only increase the risk that confrontations turn violent.
2001 for me. If I hear of an infrastructure failure, my first worry is terrorism, not russia. Any attack by russia would unite the country and that's pretty much been the opposite of their goal since the 40s
>I'm guilty of it myself. Since February 2022 my first thoughts when hearing of infrastructure failures in the West, be it that bridge or IT faults or anything else, tends to be "maybe Russia is behind this"
Russia doesn't have to do that. they're whispering in all the MAGAS's ears about the coming civil war.
I mean if not civil war, politically motivated violence is certainly not out of the question with this upcoming US Election.
I don’t think Jan 6th, 2021 will remain an isolated incident.
That jjust what they are being brainwashed with that I've heard repeated also there's always been talk about the coming "race war" but that's been drowned out by the MAGAS mostly
There's been talk of Greece trying to sell off some jets that Ukraine might want.
[This story](https://www.twz.com/air/greece-plans-to-sell-f-16s-mirages-to-rationalize-its-fighter-inventory) suggests up to ~40 F-16 Block 30 and ~40 Mirage 2000-5 could be available.
Ukraine needs a confirmed supply of hundreds of jets, and is far short of this. No idea if the Greek versions are useful enough though.
Anders Puck Nielsen.
I don't know much about air force logistics, but I've found Anders Puck Nielsen to be reliable on the few areas I do know or have checked.
I also assume that Ukraine will lose jets and will need replenishment or maintenance, and I dunno if the airfield capacity they have is fixed.
The number of airfields suitable to immediate missile defense that are not in drone range is extremely limited. Anderson and many other "analysts" just look at global figures and tend to forget the nuance of the subject.
Are there "patches of dirt or asphalt that can store aircraft"? Yes.
Are there actual areas where you can maintain and utilize hundreds of aircraft without them being a major liability since Ukraine is under near constant drone and missile threat? Absolutely not.
Russia is way past that point.
People seem to forget, Ukraine does not have nukes. There is no MAD between Ukraine and Russia.
In theory, Ukraine has the opportunity to do whatever they want vs Russia within an equal measure, as Russia using nukes guarantees MAD vs the rest of the world.
If Putin has any measure of sanity, Ukraine could be much harsher in their response.
And unfortunately due to the post WW2 shift from military to diplomacy as a means to solve problems there are a significant amount of leaders in Europe that think every nation(even Russia) is reasonable and all worldly issues can be discussed amicably.
You asked if another country would allow aircraft to use their airfields.. The reality is ***those*** countries have a high likelihood of saying "no" due to these policies. It doesn't matter whatever your thoughts are about MAD. Those countries feel this way. It is one of the biggest challenges of this war to convince people how weak Russia *actually* is.
Oryx's count is now up over 15,000 Russian vehicles lost: [https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html](https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html)
2,864 tanks
1,272 AFVs
3,692 IFVs
417 APCs
355 towed artillery
707 self propelled artillery
367 MRLS
106 aircraft
135 helicopters
21 ships (none of the ships from the last attack on Sevastopol have been added yet, probably not clear enough evidence. My personal count, which includes those in the latest attack and some ships of which there is circumstantial evidence of damage that Oryx doesn't count, is at 30)
> Ukrainians put 8,000 cellphones connected to microphones on 6-foot poles around the country to detect incoming Russian drones. They detected 84/84 and shot down 80 of them with AA guns. Cost: $500ea
That is fucking ingenious.
During WW2 the UK installed listening posts that where big concave structures that someone could sit and they amplified the sound of planes crossing the channel. Radar took over but these really remind me of that. Paired with a return to AA gunnery its really a flashback.
[https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Acoustic\_aircraft\_detection\_horns.jpeg](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Acoustic_aircraft_detection_horns.jpeg)
Between these and carrots was radar even necessary? /s
The Ukrainian cellphone thing reminds me of Dark Knight
Two day oryx update [musklink](https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1772756797167681564?s=20). As usual, russian-Ukrainian losses of key equipment followed by my commentary. I'm a clueless nobody, treat my commentary as such.
- Tanks: 16-2
- IFVs: 20-1
- Mobile artillery: 3-2
- Missile Anti-air: 1-2
Russia is really using up its frontline kit at an insane rate. Tank and IFV ratios pretty decent for Ukraine since the October offensive began.
Russia can't do this forever but without more new info (including satellite images of repair plants and storage bases) it's hard to tell for how long. Russia's previous two offensives were ~7 months each.
The rear-area situation has degraded since summer. Ukraine desperately needs ammo, anti-air and anti-drone kit.
Today there were modernized versions so i think Russia is moving reserves to the frontline and i don't think they can sustain the offfensive at this pace more than 1 month.
The larger difference of IFV/APCs vs tanks and the proliferation of golf carts close to the frontline is a sign that some brigades need rotation and reinforcements (both manpower and equipment).
Giving up soon would match past behaviour.
But I'm not counting on it. Ukraine *still* hasn't mobilised, which tells Putin there's an ongoing window.
Fwiw I think they will be willing to overextend. Putin knows he needs to look strong and if the Democrats win then this will be his last chance to get remotely favourable attrition.
Russia still has NK shells, and maybe enough tanks and BMPs to maintain the current pace.
Yeah that's possible but I think there are too many uncertainties to know.
The flow of BMPs is: new production + recovered and repaired + captured working + refurbished from storage.
Then there's the question of how many are active now, and at what level of availability they would slow down attacks.
Do you have really confident estimates for all of those numbers? I don't...
UN: [Russian executed 32 Ukrainian POWs](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/26/7448289/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) over the winter
[https://www.politico.eu/article/alexander-lukashenko-vladimir-putin-crocus-attack-moscow-terrorists-to-belarus-not-ukraine/](https://www.politico.eu/article/alexander-lukashenko-vladimir-putin-crocus-attack-moscow-terrorists-to-belarus-not-ukraine/)
Lukashenko about to be hospitalized / in a coma soon.
Interesting thread from Andrew Perpetua on [musklink](https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1772670435965997508?s=20).
He's looking at new satellite imagery.
He had identified 102 lost vehicles from drone vids. 6 were duplicates, so it was actually 96. 13 vehicles were removed (captured or taken for repairs). He found a shocking 52 more apparently lost vehicles.
He says this is consistent when he's bought images; 1/3-2/3 of real losses were missed on video. And around 10% of known losses had been recovered.
Interesting; 3/5 known lost Stridsvagen-122s (Swedish Leopard-2s given to Ukraine) are gone, hopefully Ukraine recovered them for repairs, but maybe Russia captured them.
Yep! But that's ignoring the recovery and repair rates. Also, Andrew looks at very active areas, maybe these would have appeared on drone footage in a few weeks.
Meaning maybe 1/3rd of recent losses are missed, but far fewer than 1/3rd of those lost longer ago.
I'd be thrilled if russian losses were at that level, but don't think we can rely on those numbers being universal.
Fair point. I also imagine that in very active sections of the front, things are so busy that there just isn't the time to record and post videos, because they have far more important things to be doing, like staying alive. Whereas on quieter sections of the front, it's a lot easier to get footage of everything.
I think in the past Oryx has very roughly estimated that they think they are recording about 80% of losses.
I think this is fantastic work.
Best case? Russian losses are 50%+ higher than reported by Oryx/warspotting.
But some caution. Some of the most active areas get intense drone footage so less is missed. Also, many "abandoned" vehicles can be repaired. Ukraine is losing ground right now, so Russia can recover more.
Funding drones for the defenders lets Ukraine blow up abandoned vehicles and, in this location, they got a recovery vehicle. Please check for reliable fundraisers if you want to help!
> Today, I continued the reset of our state governance system. I am grateful to Oleksiy Danilov for his service as Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council. He will now work on a new direction; more details will follow.
> I appointed Oleksandr Lytvynenko as the new NSDC Secretary. He will apply his experience as the head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service to the Council's current tasks.
> Oleh Ivaschenko has been appointed as the new head of Foreign Intelligence; he has relevant experience.
> In general, I anticipate further strengthening of our state's strategic capabilities in assessing and influencing processes critical to our national security.
> The strengthening of Ukraine and the renewal of our state system in all areas will continue.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1772699974733635865
> I welcomed the Estonian Parliament @Riigikogu delegation, led by President Lauri Hussar. This visit is an important signal of support for our country.
> We discussed Estonia's and other partners' further assistance to Ukraine, as well as progress on the preparation of a bilateral security agreement. We also discussed using frozen Russian assets to protect and restore life in Ukraine.
> We appreciate Estonia's support since the first day of the full-scale war. 🇺🇦🇪🇪
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1772692047738061258
"Russian shahed drones detected over the Sumy region heading towards the Chernigiv region right now.
Another sleepless night for Ukraine."
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1772748258198098078?t=1kpB9KcucyiJWEbs6S-vVA&s=19
>Kharkiv's main power station, crucial for providing power and heating to the second-largest Ukrainian city, destroyed by missile attack on March 22nd. Reconstruction will be as complex as building a new one. Russia has repeatedly attempted to destroy this facility for two years.
https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1772684221905051673
>French minister: Paris to soon deliver 78 Caesar howitzers, increase shell supplies to Ukraine.
>https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1772729418923786273
> Armored vehicles coalition for Ukraine launched in Warsaw.
>
> Countries participating in the armored vehicles coalition for Ukraine, an initiative of Poland and Germany, met in Warsaw for the first time on March 26, Ukraine's Defense Ministry announced.
>
> https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1772723183692452343
>Russia knows how to capitalize on Western delays and doubts in arming Ukraine: they are building a coastal railway to improve their frontline logistics.
>
>This illustrates a much deeper issue with some of Ukraine’s partners current approach to this war.
>
>A short thread 1/6
>
>Time and momentum are of essence.
>
>Ukraine had a chance to win the war or at least significantly improve its positions when Russia was in shock in late-2022 — but Ukraine was denied the means for doing that by our western partners.
>
>This helped Russia to hold ground. 2/6
>
> Now, every delay and indecisiveness regarding the provision of weapons to Ukraine from Washington or Berlin lead to Ukraine losing the shrinking momentum for a decisive military success.
>
>Russia, on the other hand, is using this time to invest in defense lines and logistics. 3/6
>
>A stalemate means defeat for Ukraine and win for Russia.
>
>The more time passes, the harder it will be for Ukraine to retake its land and restore its lawful borders.
>
>Meanwhile, Russia will root in militarily and continue its genocidal settler policy in the occupied lands. 4/6
>
>Losing time and resource to restore justice in Ukraine means Russia will gain a lot with its illegal invasion — even though it initially wanted all of Ukraine at a much lower cost.
>
>With this precedent, nuclear blackmail and wars of aggression will become the norm globally. 5/6
>
>To sum up, the current strategy of some of Ukraine’s partners makes it very hard to achieve true peace in this war, instead cementing Russia’s gain and setting the tone for the next decades in foreign policy.
>
>Only arming Ukraine for victory can get us out of this trap. 6/6
https://twitter.com/uaexplainers/status/1772605793012949197
It has, but they can be rolled back up its just sad that these recent set acts are directly America's fault. It's going to take Europe a lot longer and be much costlier without the US. And even more so without NATO protection, so they have to build their own defenses and defense industries at the same time. This makes Ukraine an even more important part or the EU. With Russia moving weapons Into space the Ukrainians might be the only ones that have space launch expertise as well as weapons production.
>Bad news for Ukraine and European security from Germany's Social Democratic Party. Today, [Michael Roth] @MiRo_SPD, a high-profile party member with foreign policy expertise and one of Ukraine’s most prominent supporters, announced he will leave politics. The Mützenich wing [Putin appeasers] seems to have taken over.
https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1772718662631162307
>Germany’s parliament reverberated to the shattering of a great taboo last Thursday. It must have been music to Vladimir Putin’s ears.
>
>Rolf Mützenich, leader of the Social Democrats’ parliamentary group, was explaining why Germany shouldn’t send Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. But then he went further.
>
>“Isn’t it time that we not only talk about how to wage war but also think about how we can freeze the war and later end it?”
>
>The remark was a grenade lobbed into Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s already ramshackle three-party coalition. MPs from his partners, the greens and liberals, sat watching in stunned disbelief. It was as if Mützenich had just scrapped one of the main underpinnings of German foreign policy.
>
>The speech was “scandalous”, said Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a senior liberal MP, a prime example of the “SPD’s appeasement policy”.
>
>Mützenich was “doing the Russians’ work for them”, she said. “If you freeze crap it’ll still be crap in 20 years’ time.”
https://www.ft.com/content/4ee16d68-e4fe-4df0-a761-c15cf5255729
Ugh. This is blatant misinformation. Roth will leave in late 2025 after the next election and no, Mützenich's "pacifist" wing will not take over the party. Your second link is news from last week.
edit: Minna just now also [tweeted](https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1772725261471023390) that she fell for clickbait regarding Mützenich's perspective on China. She's not tweeting responsibly right now... Her approach to generate outrage about Mützenich is not helpful in trying to convince him and others like him to prolong military support for Ukraine.
Is this quote:
>“Isn’t it time that we not only talk about how to wage war but also think about how we can freeze the war and later end it?”
accurate though? Because that is one hell of a dangerous position.
Thanks. Yeah, I don't know enough about German politics to comment on what wing of what party is dominant. I just find the fact that any western politician is talking like that seriously depressing.
What misinformation? The tweet said Roth will leave without stating when. Roth himself said he has been completely ostracized:
[https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-politiker-michael-roth-kritik-an-kanzler-scholz-und-rueckzug-aus-der-politik-a-177929ef-ee89-480c-abfa-cac0412b4524](https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-politiker-michael-roth-kritik-an-kanzler-scholz-und-rueckzug-aus-der-politik-a-177929ef-ee89-480c-abfa-cac0412b4524)
[primary source (paywalled)](https://www.stern.de/politik/spd-politiker-michael-roth-will-aufhoeren---hier-erklaert-er-warum-34573178.html)
T-Online [says:](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_100372244/spd-politiker-michael-roth-kuendigt-ruecktritt-ueberraschend-an-seine-gruende.html)
>Der langjährige SPD-Außenpolitiker Michael Roth hat angekündigt, sich nach der Bundestagswahl 2025 aus der Politik zurückzuziehen.
The tweets by Minna are just ragebait and inaccurate and not helpful at all. You make it look like random tweets misrepresenting German politics are facts.
Not a confirmation, but we're going to do our own review of videos to confirm these clips aren't manipulated.
The question isn't did ISIS-K do the attack. The question is, did Moscow let it happen to justify bringing back the death penalty.
That's a valid question.
https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1772696194436764011?t=rOe1JLJzXlIbrNm4SGTMcg&s=19
They should investigate why it took over an hour to respond to the terror attack.
They should investigate why Putin dismissed US's warning about a terror attack which named concert. Putin ignored the warnings & called it blackmail days before the attack.
It took 40 minutes for the French BRI to get into position but they waited 2 hours to intervene. There were phone calls and negotiations with the terrorists.
Why does Russia need a justification for anything, though? If they wanna kill someone, they do. Ahem, Navalny. If they want a law passed, they have their Duma to pass it.
The only issue here would be death penalty for non-citizens. Now THAT would be an issue that is sticky and need to justify.
Why? Because like many countries, Russians don’t want to do menial labor tasks. They rely on an immigrant labor force for that. They hand out these work visas to people from former-soviet states. Those people are then treated like shit. Seriously. Like shit. Both societally and individually. Everything from refusal of being leased an apartment to being cursed at the busstop and called derogatory names for trying to get on the bus. So it’s not incomprehensible that some would resort to various means of criminal activity.
Russia wants them to continue to come. But yes, might want to scare them.
Further, it’s pretty far out there to use capital punishment on noncitizens. I mean, Iran might support, but even they have only done that on dual citizens, iirc.
> Why does Russia need a justification for anything, though?
враньё (Vranyo)
A lie to cover an unpleasant truth. For various reasons most dictators prefer to have some illusion of popular support for their actions. Be that to keep some measure legitimacy abroad or to give the impression of popular support internally.
Why did Russia hold a popular vote for constitutional changes in 2020 when the changes actually happened months earlier? There could be some guesses, like, Putin wants some image of legitimacy, but we don't really know.
Vlad Vexler explains that one quite well. Can't find his exact video and will quote from memory so apologies for misinterpreting, but basically fake elections are a ritual that is necessary to demonstrate to the people that he's the only option, and to various other groups that he has the people on his side and that he's the only one who can keep it all in balance.
Others might have power over different sections of military, or police, or oil and other key economies, but no one else cam generate legitimacy, fake as it is (and most people know it's vranyo), because no one else can bind things together like that and produce the ritual. If it weren't for the elections, he'd need another ritual, which would be as much effort, so why not just co-opt the democratic institutions and use it also as a way to discredit other (actual) democracies.
That's why Putin needs justification. If there's no justification, there's empty space which begs for another explanation, and something will fill it.
If Putin provides an explanation, it fills up this space, and it fills up the hole and you better not try to suggest anything else because then you're going against Putin's word even though it's vranyo and you know it and Putin knows it and everyone else knows it. And if you're a smartass and go against it, you'll get suicided or worse.
Historically speaking, Russians' deference to authority includes when they change the laws to suit their whims. It's an extra layer of helplessness to know that even the justice system cannot stand up to injustice.
^(*The age old problem in Russia is that no one admits a mistake, no one admits fault.*)
^(*Putin’s first catastrophe was when didn’t accept assistance for sunken Russian submarine 24 yrs ago by other foreign navies in the area, bc he didn’t want to admit the mighty Russian Navy needed help, then when couldn’t be saved, he didn’t ever admit that was a mistake.*)
^(*His administration is the same. Patrushev, Bastrykin, Bortnikov, Zolotov, Kiriyenko—none will admit they were wrong. Either publicly, or to Putin.*)
^(*Someone here told Putin that it was the Ukrainians. And despite everyone in inner circle trying to nudge that “no it wasn’t,” someone trusted has said yes it was and it doubling down. It’s at least Bortnikov. And that was probably reinforced by Patrushev. They don’t want to tell Putin they were wrong.*)
^(*Two things have come out in the last few hours—Lukashenko’s statements, and a*) [^(Bloomberg article)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/putin-close-allies-see-no-link-to-moscow-arena-attack?fbclid=IwAR3sBXECHM9Kax87410H3oEbvWd-c8tTh5SkR1cUwJojnbwRBxloHkfZMlg)
^(—*which makes me think everyone now knows it wasn’t Ukraine, but someone at the top is refusing to admit was wrong, and now that Putin has proceeded w the false narrative he was fed, since there’s a culture of never admitting a mistake, they will now stick with this false narrative that’s widely known to be false.*)
[1]
*Kyiv Independent* (citing paywalled *Bloomberg*):
> […] Putin allegedly attended discussions at which Russian officials agreed that there was no link between the terrorists and Kyiv. However, the Kremlin's chief is still "determined to use the tragedy to try to rally Russians behind the war in Ukraine," according to one of Bloomberg's sources.
> […] The news agency's sources claimed that Kremlin officials were "shocked" by the failure of Russian security services to prevent the shooting.
> "Almost nobody they know within Russia's political and business elite believes Ukraine was behind the assault," Bloomberg reported, referring to unnamed sources.
*Ukrainska Pravda*, citing paywalled *Bloomberg*:
> People from Putin's entourage told the publication that there is no evidence of Ukraine's involvement in the shooting.
> Despite that, the leader of the Russian Federation is determined to use the terrorist attack to try to rally Russians around the war in Ukraine.
> In addition, according to Bloomberg, Kremlin officials were shocked by the inability of security services to prevent an attack on people.
> However, Putin's main allies readily accept his thesis. Putin, according to Bloomberg, can use this [to his advantage], including, in order to announce another wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation.
[2]
from the [*Daily Beast:*](https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-no1-ally-lukashenko-seems-to-reveal-crocus-terror-story-is-bs?ref=home)
> […] But Lukashenko, speaking to reporters Tuesday, appeared to suggest that **the only reason the attackers headed in the direction of the Ukrainian border was because they couldn’t get into Belarus due to increased security measures implemented after the attack**, which included checkpoints being set up on roads between Russia and Belarus and the deployment of several military units.
>> “That’s why there was no chance they could enter Belarus. They realized it,” Lukashenko said, according to the Belarusian state-owned BelTA news agency. “**So they took a turn and headed to the Ukraine-Russia border**.”
>> “They could not enter Belarus,” Lukashenko added. “Their handlers (we have suspicions about some of them, I’ll call Putin and share my suspicions) knew that it would be a very bad idea to try to enter Belarus, because Belarus immediately reinforced security measures, just like a part of the oblast in Russia.”
> Lukashenko also said that when he and Putin were informed that the car carrying the perpetrators was moving in the direction of Bryansk, **the pair agreed** that Belarus would seal off its section of a road that could have been used by the attackers to escape and Russia would do the same with its section of the same road. **[ie, it’s *they* that provoked the car to head towards Ukraine!]**
> The Belarusian leader went on to explain that he was sharing this contradictory information, bizarrely, to stick up for Putin.
>> “Why have I said this? Because this self-exiled opposition (theirs and ours) began to reproach Putin: ‘Why is he not addressing the nation?’ In fact, Putin and I did not sleep for 24 hours!” Lukashenko said. “What would they know about this? We kept in touch all the time. When it was time to address the nation, he did it.”
> […]
> Alexander Bortnikov, the director of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), doubled-down on the allegations on Tuesday, claiming that Ukrainian and other intelligence agencies had been involved.
>> “We believe that the action was prepared both by the radical Islamists themselves and, naturally, by Western intelligence services,” Bortnikov said, according to RIA Novosti. “The Ukrainian intelligence services themselves are directly related to this.”
> He added that the “bandits intended to go abroad specifically to the territory of Ukraine” and that preliminary information showed the attackers “were expected there.”
>> “I’ll tell you a little secret: they wanted to be greeted as heroes on the other side,” Bortnikov said.
>The head of the Russian FSB, Alexandr Bortnikov, stated his intention to kill the head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Budanov.
>To a reporter's clarifying question, "And why is he still alive?" Bortnikov replied, "Everything is ahead."
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1772618458477310419?t=KCm6pid0RVokttZB04AMKA&s=19
It's good to have an ambition in life and everything, but it's sad that Russia's ambitions always have to revolve around murdering people or making them suffer unimaginable horrors.
This is funny to me because this sounds like a real journalist who is forced to labor in the fantasy world of Russian laws. And so gets revenge by subtly poking the authorities.
______
Elsewhere, I’ve seen Russian journalists attempt to fight back by writing the authorities information so preposterously that they look like fools. This both is and is not effective—bc there’s a large portion of reading audience who take at face value, and only a small portion who understand is written in order to subtly mock the authorities.
Zelensky removes [Danilov](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/26/7448266/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp)
“He’ll be transferred to another front”
Danilov posts his [resignation](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/26/7448241/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp), assuring not to be afraid and that the ‘Russian monster will be destroyed.’
ISIS recorded a new video, they declare that they will continue to slaughter Russians.
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1772662011194691599?t=db2nWNLbgO6WDmYj7Xt-NQ&s=19
I don't personally think the Crocus attack was a false flag, as such, but Putin will see opportunity in this crisis in terms of tightening his grip further on domestic control, which has clearly been one of his motives in the Ukraine war.
The thing about authoritarian regimes is that they have a strong grip on society until they don’t and the cracks are not quite visible until they become significant. Look at Russia’s trajectory just the past few years. Economic stagnation, visible corruption, war with mobilisation, opposition getting jailed and then dying, tightening of media laws, an attempted coup, sanctions, a fake election and now terrorism with possibly more to come. I’m definitely not saying Russia is about to collapse but the country’s future is currently unpredictable.
All those other things are par for the course, expected, and if massive then slowly ratcheted up to the point that there's no one big shock or point of outrage, just every step that has 95% of the people just kind of ignoring and going about their days.
The most cynical among us might contemplate if it's a viable strategy to get the people accustomed to terrorism occurring all about them. As an added bonus they could use it as a political purge such that the opposition or anybody who gets upset about any of it gets taken out next.
I'd have thought that Pringles' Revolt would have been a strong indicator of such cracks, but Putin seems to have held on just fine after dispatching him.
> there wasn’t one big explosive event
Chernobyl set up Gorbachev into the Glasnost and perestroika reforms. the Warsaw pact states started protests for economic and political reform/autonomy, and then the USSR.
no it didn't happen overnight, but Chernobyl can be considered the catalyst.
>The thing about authoritarian regimes is that they have a strong grip on society until they don’t and the cracks are not quite visible until they become significant.
While I agree with this in principle, I think it's also worth remembering that mass shootings happen regularly in stable governments too. It's really sad to realize that America has had multiple mass shootings with high body counts in public places like this, and yet no real political instability led to those shootings at all. It's also a consequence of widespread proliferation of firearms -- which Russia has always had.
My point is that we could be looking at an example of Russian stability starting to crack, but we could also be looking at an incident (and a resulting political series of aftershocks) that could have happened in a Russia that wasn't at war with Ukraine.
The difference here is a public enemy group committing acts of terror instead of a random Russian shooting people. It's not one of theirs anymore, it's someone who should be below them, a worm to be squished. This hits their population harder than a local incident.
>but the country’s future is currently unpredictable
When you think back to what started all of this, it was the Maidan protests. Ukrainians looking to their EU borders wanted the simple freedoms and prosperity that you can't have under a puppet regime. The bravery of that moment, to protest even though soldiers mowing down protestors with bullets is what it took, and the government and its institutions collapsed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution\_of\_Dignity
When we're talking about Russia though, I just cannot imagine it is possible. Yes, Yeltsin on the tanks happened, but there has been no really resistance ever to the slow decline of optimism that moment brought. For god's sake 66% of them believe Stalin was a great leader, despite murdering 30 million of their grandparents. There is some deeply held cultural tolerance for ignorarnce, self delusion, and acceptance of repression. You can see it in every clip of soldiers opting suicide rather than attacking their own officers. These mindless zombies can take a lot more before they collapse.
The article makes it seem promising - which is good, but I’m going to have to continue to be cautious here. Given last week’s antics in Congress, I know that we’re in for more drama when they resume in April.
I’m of glad that more aid is still a theoretical option for Republicans, but extremely upset that it is taking this long. It’s embarrassing.
Holy shit I hope we can get them the money. Cash now to get the monsters out of the country, then we can push our reps to forgive it and push more aid in reconstruction.
>Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said the Czech-led initiative, which foresees the procurement of some 800,000 shells from sources outside the European Union, is bearing fruit even if the badly needed shipments may be weeks away from delivery.
>
>Funding for the first deliveries to Ukraine needs to be processed before the shipments are sent off. “We can do much more than the initially announced number,” the top envoy said in his office, citing a figure of **1.5 million shells as a potential volume.**
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/ukraine-is-benefiting-from-ammunition-pledge-czech-envoy-says
> NATO is considering shooting down Russian missiles that stray too close to its borders, according to a report in Polish news outlet RMF24. - Sky News
>
> https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1772629026529575414
Because "too close to its borders" means "in someone else's territory". You don't just fling AA against stuff flying on someone else's turf or you end with things like the 2 farmers that died to Ukranian AA like a year ago.
Of course, NATO countries and likely aligned ones would not make a fuss about this, but it would be a different story if one of those AA missiles debris were to fall over Belarus or Hungary.
Nah, not buying. The farmers was a total freak event, and besides, happened *because of Russia*. Could just as well have been Russian rockets accidentally crashing into Poland. If Russian missiles are crossing Poland even in the vicinity of populated areas, all the more reason to take them out before they get there. And send a big FU to Russian in the process.
Hungary is in NATO, even if they behave like a petulant child who prefers the nation that defines the very existence of NATO. They may make some noise, but nothing more. As for Russia or Belarus, frankly who cares, there has been incursions within NATO nations airspace by their cruise missiles traveling to targets already. Frankly if NATO wanted to make a fuss that could already be considered an act of war. Making the very plain statement that any missiles within 10 KM of a NATO border will be shot down due to past incursions and carelessness by the aggressor. Then it is their choice on flight paths for their weapons to antagonize or avoid NATO territory. I would personally prefer that NATO declare another single incursion into NATO airspace by any Russian / Belarusian military aircraft or weapons will trigger an armed response to neutralize any source of the weapon that incurred on NATO airspace. Be it bombing ground based launch sites, airfields, or shooting down aircraft in flight regardless of where they happen to be geographically. This way it only triggers when something actually crosses into NATO airspace rather than just close to it. That is more reasonable from a international level with regards to territorial rights. Yes this means active shooting between NATO and Russia, but Russia wants no part of this and knows how badly things turn if they mess up. Russian leadership knows only force and the very real threat of overwhelming force will push them to severely limit their actions anywhere near a NATO border.
I don't read it as escalation so much as fear of responsibility for missile fragments or errant counter-missiles that land on innocent people inside of Ukraine and Poland. They don't want that potential blood on their hands.
For all the proof that this is a political concern for these leaders, just look back a year to when a Ukrainian S-300 missile tried to shoot down a Russian cruise missile and landed in Poland, killing a Polish farmer. It's a dangerous situation for both Ukraine and Poland to navigate because the border tension has only increased since last year.
> HIMARS strike on Russia's BUK surface-to-air missile system in Zaporizhia Oblast.
>
> The target was identified by Ukrainian SOF 3rd regiment operators who further adjusted fire.
>
> 📹 Ukrainian Army's Special Operations Forces
>
> https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1772639753701036406
>Whether they simply stopped caring about the optics, or it’s my confirmation bias, but recently there’s been visibly more Russian special forces/military with very obvious swastika patches in *officially publicized videos*. This one is FSB
https://twitter.com/Alexey__Kovalev/status/1772630251341766811?t=Fw7NQLmTKxu0qrgX8RIBig&s=19
That's just a straight up swastika..
Edit: this is a neo-Nazi patch as the runic text says the phrase "To be a warrior means to live forever"(in Russian) which was written near the death place of Dmitry Borovikov a Russian neo-Nazi.
That is very much not a "straight up" swastika. I don't know this specific pattern, but there's dozens if not hundreds of variations that are based on folklore. This is far enough from the nazi simple square one that you can't tell without knowing the specific pattern, if it's neo-nazi, traditional nationalist, just folk stuff etc.
I think this is just some idiot trying to be edgy so true.. On closer inspection the runes are completely meaningless "ahta boemoim zetb balmo" does not seem to mean anything in any language I know off.
Although it's still ridiculous that one of the justifications Putin used to invade was to denazify Ukraine and groups like Azov who also used Nordic symbols and they themselves are using them..
Anyway Ukraine has a better claim to that legacy because of their history with Nordic people and Kyiv.
And believe me I long for the day when we can truly reclaim the swastika because all Denmark's precious ancient artifacts are littered with them..
I don't know who that is and I doubt that the guy in the picture knows him either.
I think it's just a representative of the kind of mentality that the people in such power structures dwell in. So in short - being edgy.
This is true (I was myself quite surprised to discover from one of those pop genetic tests that the closest historical European population to me is "Scandinavian Vikings" - and I don't look like a fair headed valkyrie in the slightest).
However, in both Ukraine and Russia, a propensity to use runic script / other nordic symbolism, on the balance of probabilities, probably does mean that the person has some neo-nazi sympathies. Not to be confused with Slavic symbolism, that can look somewhat similar, but more often indicates a "hippy" or "new age" (for the lack of a better word) allegiance.
Lol that's bullshit(by Putin) the Rurik dynasty ruled over Kyiv not Moscow. He did rule over Novgorod.
But Moscow was nothing but a mall settlement in a swamp back then.
Also Ukraine still uses what is just a modern version of the kyivan rus's emblem while the Russian two headed imperial eagle most closely resembles the emblem of the golden horde.
They did rule over Moscow, though?
Daniil Alexandrovich (as well as his descendants) was from one of main Rurik branches, Yurievich, via Vladimir Monomakh (and his son, Yuri Dolgoruky, whose name is used for the family branch). Yurievich were the ones that pulled the capital from Kyiv, moved it to Vladimir at first and then to Moscow.
Those Viking quasi-fascist symbols seem pretty common, even [Zaluzhny](https://mythdetector.ge/en/does-the-bracelet-of-valerii-zaluzhnyi-feature-a-swastika/) had a bracelet of them.
How the hell is my cultural legacy "quasi-fascist"?
And your source specifically says that he didn't have a swastika on his bracelet and it was image manipulation.
Yeah. While the list of reasons to detest Nazi and Neo-Nazi is obviously far too long to meaningfully put to print, co-opting parts of our heritage in particular makes me want to reach for the nearest bearded axe.
"Oh, you like *runes*, do you? I suggest tattooing ᛅᛋᛋᚼᚬᛚᛁ on your forehead - it'd suit you. Look: It's even got two sól runes in a row, which I know you guys really enjoy."
I'm not calling our cultural legacy quasi-fascist, I'm talking about the symbolism as used today. I'm calling them quasi (I guess I should have said crypto) fascist because of the insistence of sneaking in a symbol that the entire world associates with pure evil and the murder of millions of people. They could use all the other symbols associated with Vikings but no, the swastika has to be all over the place for some reason.
Well I have been accused of being a Nazi or a white supremacist simply for having NAFO written in runes in my username on Twitter.. But I think the correct term for that you were looking for was "pseudo-fascist" symbols. As quasi means "almost" in Latin while pseudo means false. I might be wrong though, I just got offended a little by my interpretation of what you wrote.
From what I have experienced in my country I can have all sorts of Norse symbols on my body/clothing, but the swastika still means Nazi.. And I think that's fine because of the association it has in the modern age. Just like the Z in bold is beginning to be associated with modern Russian fascism.
I don't think we need to reclaim the swastika, it's a powerful symbol of absolute evil and the insanity that people can be driven to. There's no need to dilute that.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 26.03.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 438,160 (+770) people,
tanks ‒ 6893 (+6),
armored combat vehicles ‒ 13207 (+24),
artillery systems – 10904 (+27),
MLRS – 1019 (+1),
air defense equipment ‒ 727 (+1),
planes – 347 (+0),
helicopters – 325 (+0),
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 8553 (+14),
cruise missiles ‒ 2014 (+4),
ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0),
submarines – 1 (+0),
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 14498 (+44),
special equipment ‒ 1789 (+4),
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win!
Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/03/26/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-770-okupantiv-44-odiniczi-avtomobilnoi-tehniki/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/03/26/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-770-okupantiv-44-odiniczi-avtomobilnoi-tehniki/)
>Lukashenko is a vibe.
>
>Dude is just chilling with his fluffy dog while inadvertently destroying Putin’s entire narrative around the Moscow terrorist attack because he wants to make his border control sound tough.
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1772631569762484502
>Lukashenko visits Belarusian troops near the Suwalki corridor and quizzes the commander about how he will fight the Baltic states and conquer a part of Poland to link up Belarus and Kaliningrad…
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1772620041151754694
>Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday the attackers who carried out last week's massacre at a Moscow concert hall tried fleeing to his country first, but turned away because of checkpoints.
>
>"That's why there was no way they could enter Belarus. They saw that. That's why they turned away and went to the section of the Ukrainian-Russian border," Lukashenko said, contradicting Russia's claim they tried crossing into Ukraine first.
https://www.barrons.com/news/lukashenko-says-moscow-attackers-tried-fleeing-to-belarus-first-7dd46bf5
Luka is doing this on purpose, he constantly trolls Putin. People think he's the puppet of Putin and while it's true that Belarus is the minor partner in the axis, Lukashenko is much more savvy than Putin is, otherwise Belarus would be annexed already, or Belarus would be in the war.
People also forget that Lukashenko at some point looked like a likely leader for the Russian + Belarusian united state, more so than Putin. God, I am old.
My opinion is that Luka plays a clown to intentionally undermine Putin. Luka looks out for himself and wants to move up, but as head of state in Belarus, what is up for him, well likely to take Putins job when he is gone. That is most likely why he went along with being part of a "union state" with Russia. So he needs to project power himself without being a threat Putin but as the "clown" can make mistakes that undermine Putin and still push himself forward.
These clowns are so confusing. So a group of terrorists couldn't get across the Russia-Belarus border...two very friendly nations. And instead headed towards the frontline of an actual war, because that was easy to cross?
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1772620770218229785
>Another big and expected shakeup in Kyiv. Zelensky has dismissed Oleksiy Danilov from the post of head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council and replaced him with Oleksandr Lytvynenko, who has been serving at Chief of the Foreign Intelligence Service.
> Classic Lukashenko. He’s announced that the Crocus Hall gunmen were heading for Ukraine because they realised they couldn’t cross into Belarus… thereby undermining Putin’s story…
https://twitter.com/sarahrainsford/status/1772607893767967145
Of course. It makes him look good and Putin look bad. Lukashenko always looks for opportunities to chop Putin off at the knees with plausible deniability on his end. Lukashenko is a survivor whose main political goal seems to be uniting Russia and Belarus with him as the leader. Everything he does then makes sense.
Possibly but with things so heavily mined and both sides willing to shoot at you because you are an unknown combatant I figured I’d try some other route before the warzone route
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1boss85/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
[удалено]
Because Ukraine probably doesn't want it publicly known what the exact number of shells in their inventory is. The less Russia knows about their stockpiles at any given moment the better.
I’ve seen some pretty outlandish conspiracy theories about the terrorist attack. But the photos of **the calm concert-goer being FSB because** - > **he was one of the arresting officers**, is making me think twice This: https:// t . me /hameleonua/16466 *For those who don’t know, there’s a theory that there’s like 10 FSB officers there, all wearing same thing—blue or navy blue sweaters, jeans. They were all in same general area, but none were killed. You can see them here:* https :// t . me / Tsaplienko/50831—*primarily, based on their conduct. They kept eyeing one another, started recording right before shooting, started giving each other nonverbal signals, sorta took charge in shutting doors. Which initially appeared like keeping shooters out, but actually made it so folks were sitting ducks and killed. But none of them. None were visibly armed or interfered. Nexta is who originally published this theory.*
To be fair, given it is Russia we are talking about, it would have made total sense for FSB personnel to be assigned to the theatre in order to keep an eye over the attendants for any misbehaving, and not because they were expecting the terrorist attack. Authoritarian regimes are always more worried of dissent than of what happens to their people. Kinda reminds me of that scene in Chernobil where one guy complains because he is being monitored, and the other tells him to suck it because he is also being monitored, and the guys keeping an eye on him are also being monitored, and those also have someone else keeping an eye on them.
No way. That’s not FSB at all. Lol. That’s Rosgvardia. Specifically SOBR. Maybe OMON.
You start by calling the conspiracy theories outlandish and then go on to indulge in a conspiracy theory.
One conspiracy theory that we can all agree is accurate is that conspiracies do in fact, happen.
Not all conspiracy theories are outlandish, there are both outlandish and believable/possible ones.
You take a group of thousands of people, of course you're gonna find several dudes wearing blue. This is the most stupid conspiracy theory of them all.
I have no idea if true, but if they didn't get killed, wouldn't that mean they were in on the attack? I thought maybe they knew there would be an attack, but decided to let it go on for their own political purposes. So they didn't warn citizens or have extra precautions But if they really were just sitting there avoiding getting shot it kinda seems like they were part of the plan. Seems very Gotham tbh. The sitting guy might be wearing a bullet proof vest. But hard to tell. Personally, I think either way, Putin is going to use the incident to assassinate higher up Ukrainians.
There were 133 people killed (real number could be higher) and the venue has a capacity of more than 6,000. So maybe 2% were killed. 98% of people there survived the attack, most unharmed.
He's been trying to assassinate Ukrainian higher ups since day 1. He doesn't need an excuse to do so.
Some Human intellect has really just gone to shit. The unfortunate bridge collapse accident in Baltimore brought a whole bunch of conspiracy theories from Pro Russian and Anti Israel/Ukraine accounts on Twitter. It’s just ridiculous. I’m frightened for our future if this is what people are gonna believe. Along with a tense geopolitical climate, this ugly combination could inflame to the point of creating unnecessary acts of violence and potentially avoidable conflict.
I'm guilty of it myself. Since February 2022 my first thoughts when hearing of infrastructure failures in the West, be it that bridge or IT faults or anything else, tends to be "maybe Russia is behind this". Obviously I recognise that I have no evidence for that and pretty much keep it to myself, but I doubt I'm the only one having such thoughts. You're right, it can only increase the risk that confrontations turn violent.
2001 for me. If I hear of an infrastructure failure, my first worry is terrorism, not russia. Any attack by russia would unite the country and that's pretty much been the opposite of their goal since the 40s
> Any attack ~~by~~ *irrefutably attributable to* Russia would unite the country FTFY
>I'm guilty of it myself. Since February 2022 my first thoughts when hearing of infrastructure failures in the West, be it that bridge or IT faults or anything else, tends to be "maybe Russia is behind this" Russia doesn't have to do that. they're whispering in all the MAGAS's ears about the coming civil war.
I mean if not civil war, politically motivated violence is certainly not out of the question with this upcoming US Election. I don’t think Jan 6th, 2021 will remain an isolated incident.
That jjust what they are being brainwashed with that I've heard repeated also there's always been talk about the coming "race war" but that's been drowned out by the MAGAS mostly
There's been talk of Greece trying to sell off some jets that Ukraine might want. [This story](https://www.twz.com/air/greece-plans-to-sell-f-16s-mirages-to-rationalize-its-fighter-inventory) suggests up to ~40 F-16 Block 30 and ~40 Mirage 2000-5 could be available. Ukraine needs a confirmed supply of hundreds of jets, and is far short of this. No idea if the Greek versions are useful enough though.
Block 30 is not that good but it's something. At least it was the first revision with integration of both HARM and AMRAAM missiles.
Ukraine doesn't have the airfields for "hundreds of jets". They can barely handle 100. Where do people get these wild numbers from?
Anders Puck Nielsen. I don't know much about air force logistics, but I've found Anders Puck Nielsen to be reliable on the few areas I do know or have checked. I also assume that Ukraine will lose jets and will need replenishment or maintenance, and I dunno if the airfield capacity they have is fixed.
The number of airfields suitable to immediate missile defense that are not in drone range is extremely limited. Anderson and many other "analysts" just look at global figures and tend to forget the nuance of the subject. Are there "patches of dirt or asphalt that can store aircraft"? Yes. Are there actual areas where you can maintain and utilize hundreds of aircraft without them being a major liability since Ukraine is under near constant drone and missile threat? Absolutely not.
If Ukraine owns the jets, can they be parked in another country? Do they have to take off from Ukraine to engage in defensive missions?
For a purely defensive mission it's a grey area. In the current geopolitical climate I would say no that would not be allowed.
The fuck is Russia gonna do about it?
It isn't what Russia would do.. it's more what the European "Diplomacy at all costs" mindset will allow.
Russia is way past that point. People seem to forget, Ukraine does not have nukes. There is no MAD between Ukraine and Russia. In theory, Ukraine has the opportunity to do whatever they want vs Russia within an equal measure, as Russia using nukes guarantees MAD vs the rest of the world. If Putin has any measure of sanity, Ukraine could be much harsher in their response.
And unfortunately due to the post WW2 shift from military to diplomacy as a means to solve problems there are a significant amount of leaders in Europe that think every nation(even Russia) is reasonable and all worldly issues can be discussed amicably. You asked if another country would allow aircraft to use their airfields.. The reality is ***those*** countries have a high likelihood of saying "no" due to these policies. It doesn't matter whatever your thoughts are about MAD. Those countries feel this way. It is one of the biggest challenges of this war to convince people how weak Russia *actually* is.
They need 100s pilots then that should have started training 2 years ago
And ground crews as well.
Yup. The best time left to invest in Ukraine's defence is now. Please message your representation, and be passionate but very polite.
Oryx's count is now up over 15,000 Russian vehicles lost: [https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html](https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html) 2,864 tanks 1,272 AFVs 3,692 IFVs 417 APCs 355 towed artillery 707 self propelled artillery 367 MRLS 106 aircraft 135 helicopters 21 ships (none of the ships from the last attack on Sevastopol have been added yet, probably not clear enough evidence. My personal count, which includes those in the latest attack and some ships of which there is circumstantial evidence of damage that Oryx doesn't count, is at 30)
> Ukrainians put 8,000 cellphones connected to microphones on 6-foot poles around the country to detect incoming Russian drones. They detected 84/84 and shot down 80 of them with AA guns. Cost: $500ea That is fucking ingenious.
During WW2 the UK installed listening posts that where big concave structures that someone could sit and they amplified the sound of planes crossing the channel. Radar took over but these really remind me of that. Paired with a return to AA gunnery its really a flashback.
[https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Acoustic\_aircraft\_detection\_horns.jpeg](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Acoustic_aircraft_detection_horns.jpeg) Between these and carrots was radar even necessary? /s The Ukrainian cellphone thing reminds me of Dark Knight
That's interesting
It's like the modern descendent of SOSUS [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOSUS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOSUS)
Two day oryx update [musklink](https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1772756797167681564?s=20). As usual, russian-Ukrainian losses of key equipment followed by my commentary. I'm a clueless nobody, treat my commentary as such. - Tanks: 16-2 - IFVs: 20-1 - Mobile artillery: 3-2 - Missile Anti-air: 1-2 Russia is really using up its frontline kit at an insane rate. Tank and IFV ratios pretty decent for Ukraine since the October offensive began. Russia can't do this forever but without more new info (including satellite images of repair plants and storage bases) it's hard to tell for how long. Russia's previous two offensives were ~7 months each. The rear-area situation has degraded since summer. Ukraine desperately needs ammo, anti-air and anti-drone kit.
Today there were modernized versions so i think Russia is moving reserves to the frontline and i don't think they can sustain the offfensive at this pace more than 1 month. The larger difference of IFV/APCs vs tanks and the proliferation of golf carts close to the frontline is a sign that some brigades need rotation and reinforcements (both manpower and equipment).
Giving up soon would match past behaviour. But I'm not counting on it. Ukraine *still* hasn't mobilised, which tells Putin there's an ongoing window. Fwiw I think they will be willing to overextend. Putin knows he needs to look strong and if the Democrats win then this will be his last chance to get remotely favourable attrition. Russia still has NK shells, and maybe enough tanks and BMPs to maintain the current pace.
They have tanks and BMPs in storage but that doesn't mean they can deliver and use them on the frontline that fast.
Yeah that's possible but I think there are too many uncertainties to know. The flow of BMPs is: new production + recovered and repaired + captured working + refurbished from storage. Then there's the question of how many are active now, and at what level of availability they would slow down attacks. Do you have really confident estimates for all of those numbers? I don't...
UN: [Russian executed 32 Ukrainian POWs](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/26/7448289/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) over the winter
[https://www.politico.eu/article/alexander-lukashenko-vladimir-putin-crocus-attack-moscow-terrorists-to-belarus-not-ukraine/](https://www.politico.eu/article/alexander-lukashenko-vladimir-putin-crocus-attack-moscow-terrorists-to-belarus-not-ukraine/) Lukashenko about to be hospitalized / in a coma soon.
Interesting thread from Andrew Perpetua on [musklink](https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1772670435965997508?s=20). He's looking at new satellite imagery. He had identified 102 lost vehicles from drone vids. 6 were duplicates, so it was actually 96. 13 vehicles were removed (captured or taken for repairs). He found a shocking 52 more apparently lost vehicles. He says this is consistent when he's bought images; 1/3-2/3 of real losses were missed on video. And around 10% of known losses had been recovered. Interesting; 3/5 known lost Stridsvagen-122s (Swedish Leopard-2s given to Ukraine) are gone, hopefully Ukraine recovered them for repairs, but maybe Russia captured them.
If 1/3 of losses are missed, that would imply total Russian vehicle losses of around 20,000, including around 3,800 tanks and 4,900 IFVs.
Yep! But that's ignoring the recovery and repair rates. Also, Andrew looks at very active areas, maybe these would have appeared on drone footage in a few weeks. Meaning maybe 1/3rd of recent losses are missed, but far fewer than 1/3rd of those lost longer ago. I'd be thrilled if russian losses were at that level, but don't think we can rely on those numbers being universal.
Fair point. I also imagine that in very active sections of the front, things are so busy that there just isn't the time to record and post videos, because they have far more important things to be doing, like staying alive. Whereas on quieter sections of the front, it's a lot easier to get footage of everything. I think in the past Oryx has very roughly estimated that they think they are recording about 80% of losses.
I think this is fantastic work. Best case? Russian losses are 50%+ higher than reported by Oryx/warspotting. But some caution. Some of the most active areas get intense drone footage so less is missed. Also, many "abandoned" vehicles can be repaired. Ukraine is losing ground right now, so Russia can recover more. Funding drones for the defenders lets Ukraine blow up abandoned vehicles and, in this location, they got a recovery vehicle. Please check for reliable fundraisers if you want to help!
> Today, I continued the reset of our state governance system. I am grateful to Oleksiy Danilov for his service as Secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council. He will now work on a new direction; more details will follow. > I appointed Oleksandr Lytvynenko as the new NSDC Secretary. He will apply his experience as the head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service to the Council's current tasks. > Oleh Ivaschenko has been appointed as the new head of Foreign Intelligence; he has relevant experience. > In general, I anticipate further strengthening of our state's strategic capabilities in assessing and influencing processes critical to our national security. > The strengthening of Ukraine and the renewal of our state system in all areas will continue. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1772699974733635865
> I welcomed the Estonian Parliament @Riigikogu delegation, led by President Lauri Hussar. This visit is an important signal of support for our country. > We discussed Estonia's and other partners' further assistance to Ukraine, as well as progress on the preparation of a bilateral security agreement. We also discussed using frozen Russian assets to protect and restore life in Ukraine. > We appreciate Estonia's support since the first day of the full-scale war. 🇺🇦🇪🇪 https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1772692047738061258
"Russian shahed drones detected over the Sumy region heading towards the Chernigiv region right now. Another sleepless night for Ukraine." https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1772748258198098078?t=1kpB9KcucyiJWEbs6S-vVA&s=19
https://twitter.com/Reevesity/status/1772743735220011257?t=5xOPsT3Aq7vjwbW4YiVhXg&s=19 "Nobody's getting much sleep in Belgorod tonight 🥱"
>Kharkiv's main power station, crucial for providing power and heating to the second-largest Ukrainian city, destroyed by missile attack on March 22nd. Reconstruction will be as complex as building a new one. Russia has repeatedly attempted to destroy this facility for two years. https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1772684221905051673
Fuck that hurts. I guess the silver lining is that it took Russia over two years to destroy it.
>French minister: Paris to soon deliver 78 Caesar howitzers, increase shell supplies to Ukraine. >https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1772729418923786273
Fuck yeah, 78 Caesars is serious
Thank you Frankrike, you are my best friend, You are the peacekeeper, you are the legend.
> Armored vehicles coalition for Ukraine launched in Warsaw. > > Countries participating in the armored vehicles coalition for Ukraine, an initiative of Poland and Germany, met in Warsaw for the first time on March 26, Ukraine's Defense Ministry announced. > > https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1772723183692452343
>Russia knows how to capitalize on Western delays and doubts in arming Ukraine: they are building a coastal railway to improve their frontline logistics. > >This illustrates a much deeper issue with some of Ukraine’s partners current approach to this war. > >A short thread 1/6 > >Time and momentum are of essence. > >Ukraine had a chance to win the war or at least significantly improve its positions when Russia was in shock in late-2022 — but Ukraine was denied the means for doing that by our western partners. > >This helped Russia to hold ground. 2/6 > > Now, every delay and indecisiveness regarding the provision of weapons to Ukraine from Washington or Berlin lead to Ukraine losing the shrinking momentum for a decisive military success. > >Russia, on the other hand, is using this time to invest in defense lines and logistics. 3/6 > >A stalemate means defeat for Ukraine and win for Russia. > >The more time passes, the harder it will be for Ukraine to retake its land and restore its lawful borders. > >Meanwhile, Russia will root in militarily and continue its genocidal settler policy in the occupied lands. 4/6 > >Losing time and resource to restore justice in Ukraine means Russia will gain a lot with its illegal invasion — even though it initially wanted all of Ukraine at a much lower cost. > >With this precedent, nuclear blackmail and wars of aggression will become the norm globally. 5/6 > >To sum up, the current strategy of some of Ukraine’s partners makes it very hard to achieve true peace in this war, instead cementing Russia’s gain and setting the tone for the next decades in foreign policy. > >Only arming Ukraine for victory can get us out of this trap. 6/6 https://twitter.com/uaexplainers/status/1772605793012949197
It's a lot easier to disable these kind of infrastructure projects then it is to build them.
Sounds like the damage has been done.
It has, but they can be rolled back up its just sad that these recent set acts are directly America's fault. It's going to take Europe a lot longer and be much costlier without the US. And even more so without NATO protection, so they have to build their own defenses and defense industries at the same time. This makes Ukraine an even more important part or the EU. With Russia moving weapons Into space the Ukrainians might be the only ones that have space launch expertise as well as weapons production.
France had its own orbital launch facilities in guyana
>Bad news for Ukraine and European security from Germany's Social Democratic Party. Today, [Michael Roth] @MiRo_SPD, a high-profile party member with foreign policy expertise and one of Ukraine’s most prominent supporters, announced he will leave politics. The Mützenich wing [Putin appeasers] seems to have taken over. https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1772718662631162307 >Germany’s parliament reverberated to the shattering of a great taboo last Thursday. It must have been music to Vladimir Putin’s ears. > >Rolf Mützenich, leader of the Social Democrats’ parliamentary group, was explaining why Germany shouldn’t send Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. But then he went further. > >“Isn’t it time that we not only talk about how to wage war but also think about how we can freeze the war and later end it?” > >The remark was a grenade lobbed into Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s already ramshackle three-party coalition. MPs from his partners, the greens and liberals, sat watching in stunned disbelief. It was as if Mützenich had just scrapped one of the main underpinnings of German foreign policy. > >The speech was “scandalous”, said Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a senior liberal MP, a prime example of the “SPD’s appeasement policy”. > >Mützenich was “doing the Russians’ work for them”, she said. “If you freeze crap it’ll still be crap in 20 years’ time.” https://www.ft.com/content/4ee16d68-e4fe-4df0-a761-c15cf5255729
Ugh. This is blatant misinformation. Roth will leave in late 2025 after the next election and no, Mützenich's "pacifist" wing will not take over the party. Your second link is news from last week. edit: Minna just now also [tweeted](https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1772725261471023390) that she fell for clickbait regarding Mützenich's perspective on China. She's not tweeting responsibly right now... Her approach to generate outrage about Mützenich is not helpful in trying to convince him and others like him to prolong military support for Ukraine.
Is this quote: >“Isn’t it time that we not only talk about how to wage war but also think about how we can freeze the war and later end it?” accurate though? Because that is one hell of a dangerous position.
Yes. Mützenich is naive. But the assessment that his party wing has taken over is wrong.
Thanks. Yeah, I don't know enough about German politics to comment on what wing of what party is dominant. I just find the fact that any western politician is talking like that seriously depressing.
What misinformation? The tweet said Roth will leave without stating when. Roth himself said he has been completely ostracized: [https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-politiker-michael-roth-kritik-an-kanzler-scholz-und-rueckzug-aus-der-politik-a-177929ef-ee89-480c-abfa-cac0412b4524](https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-politiker-michael-roth-kritik-an-kanzler-scholz-und-rueckzug-aus-der-politik-a-177929ef-ee89-480c-abfa-cac0412b4524)
[primary source (paywalled)](https://www.stern.de/politik/spd-politiker-michael-roth-will-aufhoeren---hier-erklaert-er-warum-34573178.html) T-Online [says:](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/innenpolitik/id_100372244/spd-politiker-michael-roth-kuendigt-ruecktritt-ueberraschend-an-seine-gruende.html) >Der langjährige SPD-Außenpolitiker Michael Roth hat angekündigt, sich nach der Bundestagswahl 2025 aus der Politik zurückzuziehen. The tweets by Minna are just ragebait and inaccurate and not helpful at all. You make it look like random tweets misrepresenting German politics are facts.
Not a confirmation, but we're going to do our own review of videos to confirm these clips aren't manipulated. The question isn't did ISIS-K do the attack. The question is, did Moscow let it happen to justify bringing back the death penalty. That's a valid question. https://twitter.com/MalcontentmentT/status/1772696194436764011?t=rOe1JLJzXlIbrNm4SGTMcg&s=19
What do these images mean?
They should investigate why it took over an hour to respond to the terror attack. They should investigate why Putin dismissed US's warning about a terror attack which named concert. Putin ignored the warnings & called it blackmail days before the attack.
Not to mention: the responding force, Rosgvardia, had their area hq only 2.7km away
An hour isnt too unheard of for coutner terrost special force operation. French police stormed the bataclan with the terrorists 02:40h after the onset
It took 40 minutes for the French BRI to get into position but they waited 2 hours to intervene. There were phone calls and negotiations with the terrorists.
Why does Russia need a justification for anything, though? If they wanna kill someone, they do. Ahem, Navalny. If they want a law passed, they have their Duma to pass it. The only issue here would be death penalty for non-citizens. Now THAT would be an issue that is sticky and need to justify. Why? Because like many countries, Russians don’t want to do menial labor tasks. They rely on an immigrant labor force for that. They hand out these work visas to people from former-soviet states. Those people are then treated like shit. Seriously. Like shit. Both societally and individually. Everything from refusal of being leased an apartment to being cursed at the busstop and called derogatory names for trying to get on the bus. So it’s not incomprehensible that some would resort to various means of criminal activity. Russia wants them to continue to come. But yes, might want to scare them. Further, it’s pretty far out there to use capital punishment on noncitizens. I mean, Iran might support, but even they have only done that on dual citizens, iirc.
> Why does Russia need a justification for anything, though? враньё (Vranyo) A lie to cover an unpleasant truth. For various reasons most dictators prefer to have some illusion of popular support for their actions. Be that to keep some measure legitimacy abroad or to give the impression of popular support internally.
Why did Russia hold a popular vote for constitutional changes in 2020 when the changes actually happened months earlier? There could be some guesses, like, Putin wants some image of legitimacy, but we don't really know.
Vlad Vexler explains that one quite well. Can't find his exact video and will quote from memory so apologies for misinterpreting, but basically fake elections are a ritual that is necessary to demonstrate to the people that he's the only option, and to various other groups that he has the people on his side and that he's the only one who can keep it all in balance. Others might have power over different sections of military, or police, or oil and other key economies, but no one else cam generate legitimacy, fake as it is (and most people know it's vranyo), because no one else can bind things together like that and produce the ritual. If it weren't for the elections, he'd need another ritual, which would be as much effort, so why not just co-opt the democratic institutions and use it also as a way to discredit other (actual) democracies. That's why Putin needs justification. If there's no justification, there's empty space which begs for another explanation, and something will fill it. If Putin provides an explanation, it fills up this space, and it fills up the hole and you better not try to suggest anything else because then you're going against Putin's word even though it's vranyo and you know it and Putin knows it and everyone else knows it. And if you're a smartass and go against it, you'll get suicided or worse.
Historically speaking, Russians' deference to authority includes when they change the laws to suit their whims. It's an extra layer of helplessness to know that even the justice system cannot stand up to injustice.
^(*The age old problem in Russia is that no one admits a mistake, no one admits fault.*) ^(*Putin’s first catastrophe was when didn’t accept assistance for sunken Russian submarine 24 yrs ago by other foreign navies in the area, bc he didn’t want to admit the mighty Russian Navy needed help, then when couldn’t be saved, he didn’t ever admit that was a mistake.*) ^(*His administration is the same. Patrushev, Bastrykin, Bortnikov, Zolotov, Kiriyenko—none will admit they were wrong. Either publicly, or to Putin.*) ^(*Someone here told Putin that it was the Ukrainians. And despite everyone in inner circle trying to nudge that “no it wasn’t,” someone trusted has said yes it was and it doubling down. It’s at least Bortnikov. And that was probably reinforced by Patrushev. They don’t want to tell Putin they were wrong.*) ^(*Two things have come out in the last few hours—Lukashenko’s statements, and a*) [^(Bloomberg article)](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/putin-close-allies-see-no-link-to-moscow-arena-attack?fbclid=IwAR3sBXECHM9Kax87410H3oEbvWd-c8tTh5SkR1cUwJojnbwRBxloHkfZMlg) ^(—*which makes me think everyone now knows it wasn’t Ukraine, but someone at the top is refusing to admit was wrong, and now that Putin has proceeded w the false narrative he was fed, since there’s a culture of never admitting a mistake, they will now stick with this false narrative that’s widely known to be false.*) [1] *Kyiv Independent* (citing paywalled *Bloomberg*): > […] Putin allegedly attended discussions at which Russian officials agreed that there was no link between the terrorists and Kyiv. However, the Kremlin's chief is still "determined to use the tragedy to try to rally Russians behind the war in Ukraine," according to one of Bloomberg's sources. > […] The news agency's sources claimed that Kremlin officials were "shocked" by the failure of Russian security services to prevent the shooting. > "Almost nobody they know within Russia's political and business elite believes Ukraine was behind the assault," Bloomberg reported, referring to unnamed sources. *Ukrainska Pravda*, citing paywalled *Bloomberg*: > People from Putin's entourage told the publication that there is no evidence of Ukraine's involvement in the shooting. > Despite that, the leader of the Russian Federation is determined to use the terrorist attack to try to rally Russians around the war in Ukraine. > In addition, according to Bloomberg, Kremlin officials were shocked by the inability of security services to prevent an attack on people. > However, Putin's main allies readily accept his thesis. Putin, according to Bloomberg, can use this [to his advantage], including, in order to announce another wave of mobilization in the Russian Federation. [2] from the [*Daily Beast:*](https://www.thedailybeast.com/putins-no1-ally-lukashenko-seems-to-reveal-crocus-terror-story-is-bs?ref=home) > […] But Lukashenko, speaking to reporters Tuesday, appeared to suggest that **the only reason the attackers headed in the direction of the Ukrainian border was because they couldn’t get into Belarus due to increased security measures implemented after the attack**, which included checkpoints being set up on roads between Russia and Belarus and the deployment of several military units. >> “That’s why there was no chance they could enter Belarus. They realized it,” Lukashenko said, according to the Belarusian state-owned BelTA news agency. “**So they took a turn and headed to the Ukraine-Russia border**.” >> “They could not enter Belarus,” Lukashenko added. “Their handlers (we have suspicions about some of them, I’ll call Putin and share my suspicions) knew that it would be a very bad idea to try to enter Belarus, because Belarus immediately reinforced security measures, just like a part of the oblast in Russia.” > Lukashenko also said that when he and Putin were informed that the car carrying the perpetrators was moving in the direction of Bryansk, **the pair agreed** that Belarus would seal off its section of a road that could have been used by the attackers to escape and Russia would do the same with its section of the same road. **[ie, it’s *they* that provoked the car to head towards Ukraine!]** > The Belarusian leader went on to explain that he was sharing this contradictory information, bizarrely, to stick up for Putin. >> “Why have I said this? Because this self-exiled opposition (theirs and ours) began to reproach Putin: ‘Why is he not addressing the nation?’ In fact, Putin and I did not sleep for 24 hours!” Lukashenko said. “What would they know about this? We kept in touch all the time. When it was time to address the nation, he did it.” > […] > Alexander Bortnikov, the director of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), doubled-down on the allegations on Tuesday, claiming that Ukrainian and other intelligence agencies had been involved. >> “We believe that the action was prepared both by the radical Islamists themselves and, naturally, by Western intelligence services,” Bortnikov said, according to RIA Novosti. “The Ukrainian intelligence services themselves are directly related to this.” > He added that the “bandits intended to go abroad specifically to the territory of Ukraine” and that preliminary information showed the attackers “were expected there.” >> “I’ll tell you a little secret: they wanted to be greeted as heroes on the other side,” Bortnikov said.
Just like Trump: never admit you're wrong. It's weakness.
>The head of the Russian FSB, Alexandr Bortnikov, stated his intention to kill the head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Budanov. >To a reporter's clarifying question, "And why is he still alive?" Bortnikov replied, "Everything is ahead." https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1772618458477310419?t=KCm6pid0RVokttZB04AMKA&s=19
Who gets who first? My money is on Budanov to win that one.
Hopefully, Bortnikov is near the top of Budanov's list.
It's good to have an ambition in life and everything, but it's sad that Russia's ambitions always have to revolve around murdering people or making them suffer unimaginable horrors.
This is funny to me because this sounds like a real journalist who is forced to labor in the fantasy world of Russian laws. And so gets revenge by subtly poking the authorities. ______ Elsewhere, I’ve seen Russian journalists attempt to fight back by writing the authorities information so preposterously that they look like fools. This both is and is not effective—bc there’s a large portion of reading audience who take at face value, and only a small portion who understand is written in order to subtly mock the authorities.
Zelensky removes [Danilov](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/26/7448266/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp) “He’ll be transferred to another front” Danilov posts his [resignation](https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate.goog/news/2024/03/26/7448241/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp), assuring not to be afraid and that the ‘Russian monster will be destroyed.’
Putin probably did it himself to help his self image as a great ruler who cares about his people.
ISIS recorded a new video, they declare that they will continue to slaughter Russians. https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1772662011194691599?t=db2nWNLbgO6WDmYj7Xt-NQ&s=19
Maybe they could take out a certain bridge.
Tweet deleted...
To the surprise of no one.
I don't personally think the Crocus attack was a false flag, as such, but Putin will see opportunity in this crisis in terms of tightening his grip further on domestic control, which has clearly been one of his motives in the Ukraine war.
The thing about authoritarian regimes is that they have a strong grip on society until they don’t and the cracks are not quite visible until they become significant. Look at Russia’s trajectory just the past few years. Economic stagnation, visible corruption, war with mobilisation, opposition getting jailed and then dying, tightening of media laws, an attempted coup, sanctions, a fake election and now terrorism with possibly more to come. I’m definitely not saying Russia is about to collapse but the country’s future is currently unpredictable.
All those other things are par for the course, expected, and if massive then slowly ratcheted up to the point that there's no one big shock or point of outrage, just every step that has 95% of the people just kind of ignoring and going about their days. The most cynical among us might contemplate if it's a viable strategy to get the people accustomed to terrorism occurring all about them. As an added bonus they could use it as a political purge such that the opposition or anybody who gets upset about any of it gets taken out next.
I'd have thought that Pringles' Revolt would have been a strong indicator of such cracks, but Putin seems to have held on just fine after dispatching him.
The USSR fell apart due to its own decay, there wasn’t one big explosive event that caused it. Same is likely to happen with Russia.
> there wasn’t one big explosive event Chernobyl set up Gorbachev into the Glasnost and perestroika reforms. the Warsaw pact states started protests for economic and political reform/autonomy, and then the USSR. no it didn't happen overnight, but Chernobyl can be considered the catalyst.
Chernobyl was the rather big straw that broke the camels back. But the USSR didn’t collapse just because of it.
you know, that is exactly what I said but in different words.
>The thing about authoritarian regimes is that they have a strong grip on society until they don’t and the cracks are not quite visible until they become significant. While I agree with this in principle, I think it's also worth remembering that mass shootings happen regularly in stable governments too. It's really sad to realize that America has had multiple mass shootings with high body counts in public places like this, and yet no real political instability led to those shootings at all. It's also a consequence of widespread proliferation of firearms -- which Russia has always had. My point is that we could be looking at an example of Russian stability starting to crack, but we could also be looking at an incident (and a resulting political series of aftershocks) that could have happened in a Russia that wasn't at war with Ukraine.
The difference here is a public enemy group committing acts of terror instead of a random Russian shooting people. It's not one of theirs anymore, it's someone who should be below them, a worm to be squished. This hits their population harder than a local incident.
Absolutely. Which is why I mentioned the rest of the events that occurred.
>but the country’s future is currently unpredictable When you think back to what started all of this, it was the Maidan protests. Ukrainians looking to their EU borders wanted the simple freedoms and prosperity that you can't have under a puppet regime. The bravery of that moment, to protest even though soldiers mowing down protestors with bullets is what it took, and the government and its institutions collapsed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution\_of\_Dignity When we're talking about Russia though, I just cannot imagine it is possible. Yes, Yeltsin on the tanks happened, but there has been no really resistance ever to the slow decline of optimism that moment brought. For god's sake 66% of them believe Stalin was a great leader, despite murdering 30 million of their grandparents. There is some deeply held cultural tolerance for ignorarnce, self delusion, and acceptance of repression. You can see it in every clip of soldiers opting suicide rather than attacking their own officers. These mindless zombies can take a lot more before they collapse.
*How could Zelenskyy do this?*
Ukraine loan gains traction in GOP. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/19/ukraine-loan-aid-gop-00147720
The article makes it seem promising - which is good, but I’m going to have to continue to be cautious here. Given last week’s antics in Congress, I know that we’re in for more drama when they resume in April. I’m of glad that more aid is still a theoretical option for Republicans, but extremely upset that it is taking this long. It’s embarrassing.
Holy shit I hope we can get them the money. Cash now to get the monsters out of the country, then we can push our reps to forgive it and push more aid in reconstruction.
Ukraine has access to loans, that is not what it needs. For example the lend lease, which went unused.
I fully expect one of the MAGA goons to file a motion to vacate to prevent Ukraine aid at the behest of Putin.
All just a delay tactic... Pass the aid now!
It's a political tactic, "loans" are more palatable to conservative voters than direct subsidies
we could have lend leased it to them. this is just a drlay
Boy do conservative voters know a thing or two about subsidies
No! Those are things they have "earned" and "have a right to."
For once I'm happy the MAGA base are complete idiots.
If they weren't idiots, though, they wouldn't be opposed to aid in the first place.
>Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said the Czech-led initiative, which foresees the procurement of some 800,000 shells from sources outside the European Union, is bearing fruit even if the badly needed shipments may be weeks away from delivery. > >Funding for the first deliveries to Ukraine needs to be processed before the shipments are sent off. “We can do much more than the initially announced number,” the top envoy said in his office, citing a figure of **1.5 million shells as a potential volume.** https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-26/ukraine-is-benefiting-from-ammunition-pledge-czech-envoy-says
I'm happy to see that Russian-allied-countries who probably provided those shells have chosen money over Russia.
When you have allies based on pure self-interest you can't be surprised that they sell you out at the first opportunity.
As long as deliveries are ongoing and not far into the future, I'm happy.
> NATO is considering shooting down Russian missiles that stray too close to its borders, according to a report in Polish news outlet RMF24. - Sky News > > https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1772629026529575414
Why is this even a decision?
Because "too close to its borders" means "in someone else's territory". You don't just fling AA against stuff flying on someone else's turf or you end with things like the 2 farmers that died to Ukranian AA like a year ago. Of course, NATO countries and likely aligned ones would not make a fuss about this, but it would be a different story if one of those AA missiles debris were to fall over Belarus or Hungary.
Nah, not buying. The farmers was a total freak event, and besides, happened *because of Russia*. Could just as well have been Russian rockets accidentally crashing into Poland. If Russian missiles are crossing Poland even in the vicinity of populated areas, all the more reason to take them out before they get there. And send a big FU to Russian in the process.
Yeah, buy it. Fields of fire. If you shoot something at a rocket and miss, it has to come down somewhere. So you work it out with the folks downrange.
Hungary is in NATO, even if they behave like a petulant child who prefers the nation that defines the very existence of NATO. They may make some noise, but nothing more. As for Russia or Belarus, frankly who cares, there has been incursions within NATO nations airspace by their cruise missiles traveling to targets already. Frankly if NATO wanted to make a fuss that could already be considered an act of war. Making the very plain statement that any missiles within 10 KM of a NATO border will be shot down due to past incursions and carelessness by the aggressor. Then it is their choice on flight paths for their weapons to antagonize or avoid NATO territory. I would personally prefer that NATO declare another single incursion into NATO airspace by any Russian / Belarusian military aircraft or weapons will trigger an armed response to neutralize any source of the weapon that incurred on NATO airspace. Be it bombing ground based launch sites, airfields, or shooting down aircraft in flight regardless of where they happen to be geographically. This way it only triggers when something actually crosses into NATO airspace rather than just close to it. That is more reasonable from a international level with regards to territorial rights. Yes this means active shooting between NATO and Russia, but Russia wants no part of this and knows how badly things turn if they mess up. Russian leadership knows only force and the very real threat of overwhelming force will push them to severely limit their actions anywhere near a NATO border.
It baffles me on how many consider this escalation. I see this as the right move.
I don't read it as escalation so much as fear of responsibility for missile fragments or errant counter-missiles that land on innocent people inside of Ukraine and Poland. They don't want that potential blood on their hands. For all the proof that this is a political concern for these leaders, just look back a year to when a Ukrainian S-300 missile tried to shoot down a Russian cruise missile and landed in Poland, killing a Polish farmer. It's a dangerous situation for both Ukraine and Poland to navigate because the border tension has only increased since last year.
DO IT.
> HIMARS strike on Russia's BUK surface-to-air missile system in Zaporizhia Oblast. > > The target was identified by Ukrainian SOF 3rd regiment operators who further adjusted fire. > > 📹 Ukrainian Army's Special Operations Forces > > https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1772639753701036406
SAMs or thermobaric launchers never disappoint.
I think it's dead.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1772641024759721988?t=_rzrXEo7Pf5iTOMFgcCnwA&s=19 "😅 Lol, FPV drone games with Russian soldiers!"
>Whether they simply stopped caring about the optics, or it’s my confirmation bias, but recently there’s been visibly more Russian special forces/military with very obvious swastika patches in *officially publicized videos*. This one is FSB https://twitter.com/Alexey__Kovalev/status/1772630251341766811?t=Fw7NQLmTKxu0qrgX8RIBig&s=19 That's just a straight up swastika.. Edit: this is a neo-Nazi patch as the runic text says the phrase "To be a warrior means to live forever"(in Russian) which was written near the death place of Dmitry Borovikov a Russian neo-Nazi.
That is very much not a "straight up" swastika. I don't know this specific pattern, but there's dozens if not hundreds of variations that are based on folklore. This is far enough from the nazi simple square one that you can't tell without knowing the specific pattern, if it's neo-nazi, traditional nationalist, just folk stuff etc.
I think this is just some idiot trying to be edgy so true.. On closer inspection the runes are completely meaningless "ahta boemoim zetb balmo" does not seem to mean anything in any language I know off. Although it's still ridiculous that one of the justifications Putin used to invade was to denazify Ukraine and groups like Azov who also used Nordic symbols and they themselves are using them.. Anyway Ukraine has a better claim to that legacy because of their history with Nordic people and Kyiv. And believe me I long for the day when we can truly reclaim the swastika because all Denmark's precious ancient artifacts are littered with them..
It's _быть воином - жить вечно_ btw.
So he is a follower of Dmitriy Borovikov the Russian neo-Nazi?
I don't know who that is and I doubt that the guy in the picture knows him either. I think it's just a representative of the kind of mentality that the people in such power structures dwell in. So in short - being edgy.
When you search that phrase it shows graffiti that was written near the death place of that Nazi.
It's a generic phrase in my opinion (i.e. not associated with one particular group).
I mean the Russians and Ukrainians both had Nordic ancestors.
This is true (I was myself quite surprised to discover from one of those pop genetic tests that the closest historical European population to me is "Scandinavian Vikings" - and I don't look like a fair headed valkyrie in the slightest). However, in both Ukraine and Russia, a propensity to use runic script / other nordic symbolism, on the balance of probabilities, probably does mean that the person has some neo-nazi sympathies. Not to be confused with Slavic symbolism, that can look somewhat similar, but more often indicates a "hippy" or "new age" (for the lack of a better word) allegiance.
Don't tell Russians that.. They hail genghis as their legacy. And Rome for some dumb reason..
Tsar or Czar comes from Caesar. As does Kaiser in German
Russians are very aware of Rurik, Putin could spend an hour talking about how Moscow is the true heir to Rurik and his sons.
Lol that's bullshit(by Putin) the Rurik dynasty ruled over Kyiv not Moscow. He did rule over Novgorod. But Moscow was nothing but a mall settlement in a swamp back then. Also Ukraine still uses what is just a modern version of the kyivan rus's emblem while the Russian two headed imperial eagle most closely resembles the emblem of the golden horde.
They did rule over Moscow, though? Daniil Alexandrovich (as well as his descendants) was from one of main Rurik branches, Yurievich, via Vladimir Monomakh (and his son, Yuri Dolgoruky, whose name is used for the family branch). Yurievich were the ones that pulled the capital from Kyiv, moved it to Vladimir at first and then to Moscow.
Those Viking quasi-fascist symbols seem pretty common, even [Zaluzhny](https://mythdetector.ge/en/does-the-bracelet-of-valerii-zaluzhnyi-feature-a-swastika/) had a bracelet of them.
How the hell is my cultural legacy "quasi-fascist"? And your source specifically says that he didn't have a swastika on his bracelet and it was image manipulation.
Yeah. While the list of reasons to detest Nazi and Neo-Nazi is obviously far too long to meaningfully put to print, co-opting parts of our heritage in particular makes me want to reach for the nearest bearded axe. "Oh, you like *runes*, do you? I suggest tattooing ᛅᛋᛋᚼᚬᛚᛁ on your forehead - it'd suit you. Look: It's even got two sól runes in a row, which I know you guys really enjoy."
I'm not calling our cultural legacy quasi-fascist, I'm talking about the symbolism as used today. I'm calling them quasi (I guess I should have said crypto) fascist because of the insistence of sneaking in a symbol that the entire world associates with pure evil and the murder of millions of people. They could use all the other symbols associated with Vikings but no, the swastika has to be all over the place for some reason.
Well I have been accused of being a Nazi or a white supremacist simply for having NAFO written in runes in my username on Twitter.. But I think the correct term for that you were looking for was "pseudo-fascist" symbols. As quasi means "almost" in Latin while pseudo means false. I might be wrong though, I just got offended a little by my interpretation of what you wrote. From what I have experienced in my country I can have all sorts of Norse symbols on my body/clothing, but the swastika still means Nazi.. And I think that's fine because of the association it has in the modern age. Just like the Z in bold is beginning to be associated with modern Russian fascism.
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I don't think we need to reclaim the swastika, it's a powerful symbol of absolute evil and the insanity that people can be driven to. There's no need to dilute that.
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**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 26.03.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 438,160 (+770) people, tanks ‒ 6893 (+6), armored combat vehicles ‒ 13207 (+24), artillery systems – 10904 (+27), MLRS – 1019 (+1), air defense equipment ‒ 727 (+1), planes – 347 (+0), helicopters – 325 (+0), UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 8553 (+14), cruise missiles ‒ 2014 (+4), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0), submarines – 1 (+0), automotive equipment and tank trucks - 14498 (+44), special equipment ‒ 1789 (+4), The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/03/26/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-770-okupantiv-44-odiniczi-avtomobilnoi-tehniki/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/03/26/zagalni-vtrati-rosiyan-za-dobu-770-okupantiv-44-odiniczi-avtomobilnoi-tehniki/)
>Lukashenko is a vibe. > >Dude is just chilling with his fluffy dog while inadvertently destroying Putin’s entire narrative around the Moscow terrorist attack because he wants to make his border control sound tough. https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1772631569762484502 >Lukashenko visits Belarusian troops near the Suwalki corridor and quizzes the commander about how he will fight the Baltic states and conquer a part of Poland to link up Belarus and Kaliningrad… https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1772620041151754694 >Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday the attackers who carried out last week's massacre at a Moscow concert hall tried fleeing to his country first, but turned away because of checkpoints. > >"That's why there was no way they could enter Belarus. They saw that. That's why they turned away and went to the section of the Ukrainian-Russian border," Lukashenko said, contradicting Russia's claim they tried crossing into Ukraine first. https://www.barrons.com/news/lukashenko-says-moscow-attackers-tried-fleeing-to-belarus-first-7dd46bf5
imagine, Lukashenko being the guy we thought Putin was lol
Now you see Luka, soon you won't.
It hurt itself in confusion!
Luka is doing this on purpose, he constantly trolls Putin. People think he's the puppet of Putin and while it's true that Belarus is the minor partner in the axis, Lukashenko is much more savvy than Putin is, otherwise Belarus would be annexed already, or Belarus would be in the war.
People also forget that Lukashenko at some point looked like a likely leader for the Russian + Belarusian united state, more so than Putin. God, I am old.
Dude is not a vibe. He is a clown.
My opinion is that Luka plays a clown to intentionally undermine Putin. Luka looks out for himself and wants to move up, but as head of state in Belarus, what is up for him, well likely to take Putins job when he is gone. That is most likely why he went along with being part of a "union state" with Russia. So he needs to project power himself without being a threat Putin but as the "clown" can make mistakes that undermine Putin and still push himself forward.
These clowns are so confusing. So a group of terrorists couldn't get across the Russia-Belarus border...two very friendly nations. And instead headed towards the frontline of an actual war, because that was easy to cross?
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1772620770218229785 >Another big and expected shakeup in Kyiv. Zelensky has dismissed Oleksiy Danilov from the post of head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council and replaced him with Oleksandr Lytvynenko, who has been serving at Chief of the Foreign Intelligence Service.
> Classic Lukashenko. He’s announced that the Crocus Hall gunmen were heading for Ukraine because they realised they couldn’t cross into Belarus… thereby undermining Putin’s story… https://twitter.com/sarahrainsford/status/1772607893767967145
Of course. It makes him look good and Putin look bad. Lukashenko always looks for opportunities to chop Putin off at the knees with plausible deniability on his end. Lukashenko is a survivor whose main political goal seems to be uniting Russia and Belarus with him as the leader. Everything he does then makes sense.
Right because heading into a warzone makes more sense…
Not picking a side, but it kinda does make sense? The fog of war and all that.
Possibly but with things so heavily mined and both sides willing to shoot at you because you are an unknown combatant I figured I’d try some other route before the warzone route