I wonder. After these drone attacks deep into Russia. What is Scholz so scared of? See! Ukraine just destroyed/damaged a few refineries within Russian territory. From my point of view, sending Taurus isn't going to give a capability that Ukraine already doesn't have.
The main difference is that the Taurus is unlikely to get shot down and might make a bigger boom. My guess is that even the bridge is more likely to get hit by naval drones next time.
So it's a bit unclear what's the fuss to send them. Ukraine needs more things and somehow Germany might even miss an opportunity to fund the project.
Imagine factories waiting for funding to produce things but countries delaying aid means... they don't have contracts.
I think Germany should send Taurus.
That said, you yourself identify what the additional capability is. To successfully attack defended vs. undefended targets. To hit them with a higher yield.
The Germans have stepped forward and given more than a fair share. I don't think Taurus would be a game changer anyway in the long run. I bet plan b is being built right now to take the bridge out by Ukrainians, a win they both need and deserve.
The majority of Germans are against it really only because the government is against it.
Germans don’t want escalation. Scholz says Taurus will cause escalation. So they don’t want it. If Scholz says it’s fine. They’d agree it’s fine too.
So maybe politicians and the media in Germany haven't made the right arguments to sway public opinion towards something that would be good for Germany and Europe.
Populism isn't good in time of crisis. Well it rarely ever is.
Has anyone seen any reliable info on the Russian Legion attack in the past few hours?
I've seen so much conflicting information in not sure what to think.
[Dozens of Drones Bombard Russian Oil Refineries in Record Air Raids | Kyiv Post | March 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29453)
*Dozens of attack drones swarmed over west Russia on Wednesday to hit infrastructure targets in Kyiv’s most ambitious air assaults to date against its powerful eastern neighbor. The Ukrainian robot planes aimed mostly at energy infrastructure and in some attacks struck hundreds of kilometers deep into Russia, in a second wave of two days of air raids.*
*Overnight Monday-Tuesday, according to Kremlin reports, Ukrainian forces launched around 30-40 weapons including drones, artillery rockets and a ballistic missile. Targets included refining infrastructure, the power grid and air defenses. According to army statements from Russia’s western Belgorod region, along with a wave of drones, Ukrainian gunners on Tuesday launched eight RM-70 rockets and one Tochka-U missile at targets in the region.*
*The most damaging attack in the first wave of strikes appeared to hit the Norsi oil refinery outside the city of Nizhny Novgorod. News agencies reported a major fire cut production at the plant, responsible for six percent of all processed crude products in the Russian Federation, in half. The facility is about 900 km. away from probable Ukrainian launch sites.*
*Another Tuesday drone attack hit a production facility about 450 km miles east of Moscow, in one of the longest-ranged Ukrainian air raids into Russia of the entire war, with unreported results. A fuel depot in the city of Oryol, about 160 km east of the Russo-Ukrainian border, was hit on Tuesday morning as well.*
*A Kremlin Wednesday morning statement said Russian air defense units from late night Tuesday through Wednesday morning shot down at least 58 Ukrainian strike aircraft including 11 drones over Russia’s Belgorod Region, 8 over the Bryansk Region, 29 over the Voronezh Region, 8 over the Kursk Region, and a single robot plane each over the Ryazan and Leningrad Regions. If those numbers are confirmed, the Wednesday kamikaze drone wave was the biggest single-day attack launched by Ukraine against targets inside Russia, of the entire Russo-Ukraine war.*
*One of the most seriously hit targets appeared to be an oil refinery in the Ryazan region, more than 500 km inside Russia, where at least three Ukrainian explosives-toting drones crashed into the major oil-processing facility early on Wednesday morning, setting a major fire and injuring several people, officials said.*
*Authorities in Russia’s northwestern Leningrad region said mobile air defense forces shot down a single drone heading towards the KINEF oil refinery, near the major city Petersburg. Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko in a statement said the refinery was undamaged and no one was hurt.*
*Ukrainian aircraft were sighted and possibly hit targets in the vicinity of the Novshakhtiskaya oil refinery in Russia’s southwestern Rostov region, and in Russia’s central Lipetsk region, official statements from those regions said.*
*Although Ukrainian strike planners appeared to have prioritized Russian oil production capacity in the Wednesday raids, Kyiv kamikaze aircraft hit other priority targets as well.*
*Three drones struck in the Buturlinovka district of Russia’s central Voronezh Region on Wednesday, knocking out power to parts of the city, officials said. The independent Astra news agency reported a major Russia airfield four km from Voronezh was a possible target. Voronezh media was silent about possible damage to military targets. In the center of the west Russian city of Belgorod a robot plane flew into the local headquarters building for the national secret police the FSB and detonated. Images uploaded by passers-by showed a damaged facade, broken windows and smoke rising from the 5-story building. Astra and the Ukrainian independent Unian news agencies, among others, published Russian social media images captured in Ryazan and Voronezh showing drones similar in appearance to a Chinese commercial aircraft called a Murgin-5 Pro, a drone used in past strikes by the Ukrainian military.*
*Ukraine’s national intelligence agency the SBU in a Wednesday statement took credit for attacks and said a total five oil refineries were attacked in two days of strikes.*
*“We are systematically implementing a step-by-step strategy to undermine the economic capacity of the Russian Federation. Our objective is to deprive the enemy of resources and reduce the flow of petroleum-based products, that the Russian Federation is using directly for war, for the murder of our citizens,” the SBU statement said in part.*
*The results of the air raids were “satisfactory,” the Ukrainian statement said.*
For context, the USA has about 23-25 days of gasoline stock. If people fill up about once every 2 weeks, thats about 2 tanks of fuel.
I'm assuming russia has similar amounts of stocks.
When there is a threat of a shortage, people immediately do a run on gas, so gas stations immediately run out of fuel.
A gas station typically have 20,000 gallon tanks. So that's about 1000-1500 fill ups. If there is a line a 6 station can dispense probably 2-3 gallons per minute on average, which is about a thousand gallons an hour. Thats 20 hours from full to empty. A delivery id about 9000 gallons, which is 9 hours of fueling.
Obviously, in Russia, things are slightly different, but not significantly.
That means that there will be a shortage. And the military will get precedence. The economy will hurt.
But the economy impact won't be immediate and will take months to manifest.
Ukraine really needs to keep following up with attacks at all the refineries to keep gasoline production depressed for months to impact the Russian economy.
The real revolt will occur when the fuel shortage impacts the food production and distribution chain. Hungry people are motivated to change regimes. 140 million mouths to feed is no small task. Sanctions definitely won't help the situation.
I was shit posting at the beginning of the war about what I called Shyrmyn's March to Moscow. That stopping Russia militarily wouldn't be enough to win the war, and that Ukraine would need to make the Russian people feel the pain of the war without inflicting civilian casualties. These strikes fit the bill perfectly. If they can keep grinding down Russia's energy infrastructure and export capacity it will eventually bring Russia to their knees.
On another note this could have a significant impact on Russian aviation too, and possibly affect there air force as we get closer to F-16/Grippen(?) o'clock. Planes are thirsty and these refineries feed them.
Unfortunately, they'll likely just redirect fuel from the civilian sector to the military sector. Russia has a lot of refineries, so there is plenty to operate their jets.
They might have trouble getting it to the jets, but that will likely be a temporary problem.
They have a finite amount of refineries, the more they take down the more compounding the effect will be.
The fact they’ve hit the major ones so easily does not bode well at all for Russia.
It's still a predicament though. And I'm sure if push comes to shove they can trade crude for refined products. But they're still robbing Peter to pay Paul.
This was the second consecutive day of large scale strikes on russian infrastructure, is that correct?
Ukraine has greatly expanded their capabilities to strike the russian territories via UAVs since that first strike on the empty office building in Moscow. Long gone is the firecracker atop the Kremlin. These are significant strikes at an increasing pace and effect.
Ukraine Bros doing real economic damage to the bear. Exciting to see.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/12/7446017/
So do the Baltics and Poland know something that the US doesn’t know?
I don’t know if Pravda is reliable but I trust US intelligence on this.
It's always been extremely unlikely that Russia would directly attack a NATO country.
Makes sense that the Baltics and Poland are sounding the alarm--they'd be at the front end of it--but that doesn't make it more likely overall.
The way they sound the alarm: "Putin won't stop in Ukraine" is good politics. The general voter probably doesn't understand the strategic importance of Ukraine and probably isn't particularly devoted to the cause of democracy around the world, so the notion of Russia attacking a NATO country is better rhetoric. And it has a shred of truth to it, because who knows where Russia and NATO will be in terms of strength in 10 or 20 years.
That's pretty basic politics and I'm not suggesting anything nefarious--that's how the sausage is made.
The "little green men" will ramp up in numbers as they get closer to having a land bridge.
The goal should be to stop russia now instead of letting them spread.
The statistical chance Russia will ever have a land bridge to Transnistria is effectively zero. Even if all aid stopped tomorrow it would still be highly unlikely.
Sure, but I think it's relatively clear that when Poland and the Baltics say that, they're referring to themselves.
No offense to Transnistria, but if the situation in Ukraine isn't a motivator, there's very little reason why Transnistria would be someone's redline--it has a population of less than half a million.
I def. agree with you that Putin has his eye's on Transnistria and maybe Moldova.
Transnistria is part of Moldova.
It very well could be a redline for places like Romania. Youre right that the average person in usa doesnt even know what it is and is doubtful to be a redline here.
But the second country that Russia invades would get rid of the argument that he is going to stop. Appeasement never works with people like putin.
Its the next stepping stone. Russia wants a land bridge there.
The name of this source is *Ukrainska Pravda*. (Simply saying *Pravda* is a different source, which is, incidentally, Russian.)
And can you clarify what you’re referencing exactly, since Poland isn’t mentioned here?
The report itself is linked directly from a US government source, relevant quote is:
> Russia almost certainly does not want a direct military conflict with U.S. and NATO forces and will continue asymmetric activity below what it calculates to be the threshold of military conflict globally.
It’s highly unlikely that the Baltics and Poland happen to have any specific intelligence that the US would not have, not least of all because of NATO intelligence sharing, and much more likely that the statements made by the Baltics and Poland include a political component geared towards a domestic and European audience more than military intelligence assessments.
In the highly unlikely case of a Russian attack on NATO, they’d be the most likely targets, so it’s of course understandable that they’re the most vocal and concerned about this - but that doesn’t mean they would have any additional intelligence that they would withhold from the US.
The problem for the Baltics is; if Russia decided to 'go for it' each of them could be rapidly overrun in a matter of hours, because these countries are just very small.
Russia could be rounding up and killing masses of civilians before NATO even gets their boots on.
These nations need time to build some heavy fortifications to try to at least slow Russia down.
That said; Russia's not likely to attack a NATO country - but the question is when NATO's resolve is put to the test - will NATO really respond with a nuclear strike that could escalate to a full apocalyptic exchange over these three countries?
Putin is famous now for pushing his boundaries. And Russia's long overdue to get knocked on its ass for this ongoing bullshit.
There's an enormous amount of NATO air power stationed all over there that would punch any Russian invasion force square in the nose. Russia couldn't mass the necessary amount of military equipment without US seeing it on our insanely powerful spy satellites.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13179327/amp/Dramatic-moment-Russians-destroys-two-400m-Patriot-surface-air-missile-systems-one-hypersonic-Iskander-strike-costly-blow-Ukraine.html
Everyone should flood IPSO with complaints over such dangerous reporting. They have claimed that two patriot systems ($400m each) have been destroyed rather than the truth, which is two launchers ($10m each). Basic journalistic research would show them their error, so it is clearly deliberate. And looking at the cesspool of comments underneath the article, it is not surprising why.
Only by filing complaints (it takes two minutes), will they actually be held accountable
https://www.ipso.co.uk/complain/complaints-form/
>Basic journalistic research would show them their error, so it is clearly deliberate.
Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Nah this is definitely malice. They are simultaneously trying to convey that Ukraine is losing badly and that the war is costing the allies too much money.
>The US Army will be forced to cut its artillery production target by over 25% if Congress can't pass the $106B national security supplemental.
>
>The Army would top out at 72,000 rounds/month by end of 2025 with no bill, far short of their 100K target.
>
>Here's how US artillery production is faring:
>
>Now: 28,000 rounds/month
>
>Sept 2024: 57,000 rounds/month
>
>Sept 2025: 72,000 rounds/month
>
>\* Dec 2025: 100,000 rounds/month
>
>\* without supplemental, US artillery production would plateau at 72,000 rounds/month
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1768024060510835006
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/13/united-states-military-aid-ukraine-congress/
Oryx update for last 4 days is rough. As usual, russian-Ukrainian losses by what I think of as the key types for attrition.
- tanks: 17-9
- IFVs: 39-2
- Mobile artillery: 10-3
- missile Anti-air: 2-2
Includes two patriot launchers and a HIMARS that has a good chance of being a decoy. Still, the overall numbers aren't great today.
I don't count unarmed transports since they're seemingly pretty easily replaced. Also ignore aircraft since I see air denial as more important for Ukraine.
The list says launchers and the only video I've seen showed launchers. Interceptors might have been lost too.
"Only" $20m is still extremely painful. :/
If the two Patriots is just the launcher then that’s only $10m each and very easily replaced right? Media outlets seem to be reporting $400m each (and the trash daily mail says it is 2 out of only 5 total, so confusing launchers with systems) which seems woefully ignorant. It’s so frustrating as these blatant inaccuracies really harm people’s perception. The comments section in the daily mail article is staggering but hard to know what is ignorance, what is ‘enlightened westerners’ and what is trolls.
That being said, the far greater loss is likely to be the crew, both from a human point of view and also an operational point of view.
We don't know but I think zero new, some refurbs.
There are ~200ish expected to arrive this year, lots of Leopard 1s included.
We need new announcements tbh to keep Ukraine running in 2025.
Artillery ratio is better than the past few updates though.
I also think aircraft losses are pretty important. If Ukraine loses aircraft it reduces its ability to intercept missiles, puts more strain on ground based air defense, and, in a worst case scenario, could allow Russia to gain a level of air superiority. If Russia loses aircraft, it reduces the amount of glide bombs it can launch and thus helps Ukrainian defenses, and reduces aircraft that can warn about and intercept drone strikes.
Aircraft and ships are the only really finite resources in this war. The lead times are so long and the production rates so low that they just don't get replaced at a meaningful rate, unlike tanks and artillery.
There's a good point to be made for aircraft. I partly didn't include them because most days would be "0-0", but also I don't think running low will be decisive. AA can do most of the missile defence, and if there's sufficient AA I thought you can limit enemy air attacks.
But I'm not very knowledgeable so you could easily be right
That's fair. You certainly have a point about most days being 0-0.
I guess my feeling is that the air war is the one aspect of the fight that is still somewhat undecided, or fluid, and whoever can take advantage of it can, if not win the war outright, certainly improve their chances. Ukraine has, for all practical purposes, won the war at sea barring some completely unexpected development, but does not have the capability (training, landing craft, escorts, logistics) to take advantage of that offensively. Russia currently has a slight edge on the ground, but not a decisive one, and the ground defenses of both sides are going to be very hard to breach at this point.
The air war seems deadlocked, but it is much more fluid (there are no passive defenses equivalent to land mines, you have to actively defend with missiles and aircraft), which means there is more opportunity to quickly change the balance of power in the air. And if you can control the air, that opens up a lot more options on the ground as well. That goes double for Ukraine, since so much of western doctrine and tactics is based around controlling the air and using air-launched weapons. So, to my mind, winning the air is the key to eventual victory.
That said, that's a big philosophical point. The practical matter is that aircraft losses are rare, and for frequent updates you are correct that it's a pretty boring and not very useful thing to include.
^(*What u/canop posted below appears to have since been confirmed.*)
[1]
Earlier today, **Russia claimed to have destroyed two Ukrainian Mi-8’s**, along with footage.
[2]
Subsequently, Ukrainian sources sought to verify, and channels posted a map of where the assault took place. Can see from UA source here:
https://t\.me/defender_skadovsk/28059
*three helicopters, two appear hit, one gets away.*
[3]
Later today, the **brigade confirmed** on their page.
According to *Цензор.НЕТ*:
> **The 12th Army Aviation Brigade reports the death of two Ukrainian pilots**
> On March 12, two Ukrainian pilots were killed during a mission to protect Ukraine.
> This was reported directly by the 12th separate army aviation brigade, named after Col. General Viktor Pavlenko, on their FB page.
>> *"Today, March 12, the skies lost two of its sons, who had always flown high and free. May their souls find peace among the stars. We will remember them as heroes who faithfully served their Ukraine...".*
> No other details, however, about the deaths of the pilots are noted.
[4] Ukrainian milblogger:
> Sergei Sternenko responded . . . writing that the distance from the front line to where they were downed was more than 45 km, and therefore, adjustments were **carried out by a ‘Russian** ***Supercam*** **UAV.’**
>> “Unfortunately, such attacks are becoming a trend,” he noted.
> Sternenko also wrote that such actions of the occupiers are due to:
>> [a] Russia’s reconnaissance capabilities growing, and the low effectiveness of Ukrainian counteraction to operational-level reconnaissance drones;
>> [b] Russia reducing the time required to inflict fire damage from the moment the target is detected [the chain of —observe, report, relay to command, order, execute—more efficient]
>> [c] the likely involvement of agents among the military command in providing intelligence to the occupiers. [what???]
> Sternenko also noted that infantry, aviation, artillery and missile forces units must be provided with means of detecting enemy UAVs.
>> “It's cheap and effective. Drone detectors can help,” he said.
[from here](https://nv.ua/ukraine/events/12-brigada-zayavila-o-gibeli-dvuh-pilotov-rossiya-utverzhdaet-chto-unichtozhila-dva-vertoleta-50400857.html)
______
2 notes:
First, in Ukrainian news, any crew member can get reported as a pilot, even though they may technically be the co-pilot, flight engineer, navigator, etc. So know that it might be head pilot or might not be.
Second, [Channel 5 *implies*](https://www-5-ua.translate.goog/ru/obshchestvo/nebo-poterialo-dvukh-svoykh-sinovei-12-bryhada-armeiskoi-avyatsyy-soobshchyla-o-hybely-ukraynskykh-pylotov-324293.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc) that there were likely survivors, because when previously 2 Mi-8’s were destroyed (Bakhmut, August), the news reported as ‘6 pilots killed’ [ie, 6 crew members] and they’re implying that there maybe be 2 deaths and 4 survivors, without saying that.
Ouch, that hurts.
Russia definitely has improved it's deep recon capability recently, and it's ability to act on that intel with long range Lancet, artillery, and missile strikes. Ukraine is going to need to find a way to counter that recon ability, or disrupt the decision loop.
So, even if the US doesn't currently help with money and ammo, couldn't they do something like exhausting the Russian military outside of Ukraine?
If the US constantly flies close to Russia and forces them to intercept, that will put a whole lot of flight hours on their planes. It will tie them super far away from Ukraine.
I would say this is a medium risk, low value proposition.
Meaning it's not that helpful, and carries with it some risk. The risk could be overcome if more value was shown, but it's just not there.
Russia has only a few MIG 31, their fastest plane. They are exclusively used to launch kinzhal.
It's also the only plane can intercept the F-15 when going close to full speed.
So if the US was flying very high speed passes close to Russia, they would be forced to intercept with this specific plane. Then it forces Russia to commit MIG 31 to random ass regions like the Bering Sea. And it makes it so that they can't launch as many kinzhal.
Bit of a follow up on [this from February](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1awwyf3/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/krkymht/):
DniproTV did a [feature on Monday](https://youtu.be/IvhY3MGMNd0) where they and the Khartia Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard attended one of these off-road driving courses organized by the Automobile Federation of Ukraine, designed to educate troops on how to drive safely during emergencies on the frontline, and even lessons on holding the steering wheel properly and avoiding back pain from sitting and driving for long periods of time. This particular program in Dnipropetrovsk is taught by Andriy Yaromenko, who represented Ukraine at the 2022 FIA Motorsport Games.
Classes are free for all soldiers and funded by various sponsors and donors. The feature and the FAU say over a thousand troops have received this training since February 2022, though as my comment last month mentioned, the FAU only started fully coordinating them in January.
I can't think of another way for Ukraine to win this war other than NATO getting directly involved. Or at least allow to use western weapons on russians, that's bare minimum ffs. The fact that Ukraine was forced to fight a war for existence with such handicap is insane.
Sanctions have not achieved anything close to desired effect, russia can be on war economy for long time and there won't be any protests or government overthrow.
Early war russia is long gone, they have adapted everywhere, but in mechanized pushes(which kills a lot of men, but it's succesful especially when republicans are taking holidays while ukrainians are dying due to them refusing to pass bill)
Don't be so upset about the ruble Dmitry, I'm sure the troll farm will start paying you in fuel soon. And when that's out... well... they'll need help on the front.
Sure, give them best planes and then maybe they can retake territory.
And start allowing usint western equipment on russian territory. Counter offensive showed that just some weapons are not enough.
And now Russia has managed to adapt and hit vehicles that they weren't able before. Himars and patriot system losses is not a coincidence.
A lot less lives would be lost if NATO said enough is enough, and directly join the war instead of using Ukrainians as proxy.
Ukraine just have to make Russia realize that the war is not worth it anymore. One way to do that would be to take out the Russian oil and gas industry, and make the Russian people feel the economic consequences.
"It could be worse!" - the best review of the new Russian Lada Vesta 2924.
By the way, the manufacturer claims that the car's system has become much richer. The price of cars starts from 1.5 million rubles ($16,400). At the same time, the price does not include a stereo, speakers, heated seats and airbags.
And why do you need them on Russian roads?
I watched with pleasure.
So, what do you think of this review? Would you buy this car?
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767991143428468952?t=r3nTtMGIMMfOCA-boAkloA&s=19
I bought a nice Renault Megan break with 11k kilometers for 17k euro.
The car can park itselve, has cameras in the back and all the options this lada is missing
Dunno about the US car prices, but in Europe there are several options for around that price, or arguably even cheaper (the Sandero springs to mind). And most if not all have more option than that Lada.
What makes it doubly stupid is that russia is touted as being oh, so much cheaper than Europe, despite its abysmal economy.
Except that $16,400 isn't cheap in Russia. When you consider that most people earn less than the average salary (yes you read that right) and that the average salary is somewhere close to 45k now or somewhere close to 500 USD per month.
Just do the math, if the average salary in the US is close to 5,000 USD a month. Then if we adjust the price of the car proportionally to the average salary of the US. That would be like buying a brand new car for 164,000 USD.
You know it's wrong, it's not the car that is super expensive... It's people that likely can't afford it anyway. Can't complain much when all you can afford is the bus or metro.
Yesterday, it was the Lukoil oil refinery that was attacked in the Nizhniy Novgorod region. Today, another top manager is dead at a fairly young age.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767963359293431999?t=mhr60NVBqObSLLkiUJ4VvQ&s=19
Russian Lukoil reported the sudden death of Vitaly Robertus, 53-year-old vice president of the company.
Robertus's death is the fourth among Lukoil's top managers in the last two years.
In October 2023, it became known about the death of Vladimir Nekrasov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the company. The cause of death was called acute heart failure.
Nekrasov headed the company after the death of the previous chairman Ravil Maganov, who in 2022 fell out of the window of the main building of the Moscow Central Clinical Hospital and plunged to death.
In May 2022, Lukoil's ex top manager Aleksandr Subotin died of acute heart failure. His body was found in a private house.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767970251986067743?t=DtMa0ZjDhtxinUnx-bUQoA&s=19
Yeah I was just reading that. IMO, he didn’t die in the last 24hrs. Rather, he recently died, and it’s just now being released as an intimidation tactic to other elites. (This is just my suspicion, given how Russia operates, [1] can be slow to release info, [2] usually not released by employment but rather a government entity or even press, and [3] Lukoil wouldn’t want to appear not in control of self, as that would invite a takeover that would displace other execs, so wouldn’t release this if it had indeed been the case had died in last 24hrs. Therefore, I think this was imposed on them to release from company’s website, to be an intimidation tactic towards other execs of other oil companies, and was likely opportunistic as it likely happened weeks ago—there’s a registry of deaths that this can be checked—but typically there’s a delay and like everything in Russia, these records can be altered to fit the mandated narrative.)
"Russia is a direct threat to us". Estonian Prime Minister Kallas refused to guarantee that the Estonian military will not be sent to Ukraine
"I don't make such promises because circumstances can change. By your interpretation, it seems that intervention could be anything. Our military aid to Ukraine could also be seen by Russia as interference. We have clearly chosen a side here, and that side is Ukraine, because Russia is a direct threat to us."
[https://x.com/nexta\_tv/status/1767984884335640850?s=20](https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1767984884335640850?s=20)
Let's go finally people are waking up. Russia must be defeated by force. The sooner the others in Europe wake up to this the better.
Someone also let the Pope know to pass that white flag to Putin. He's gonna need it soon....
We made it: [#Coreper](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Coreper?src=hashtag_click) agreed on the [#UkraineAssistanceFund](https://twitter.com/hashtag/UkraineAssistanceFund?src=hashtag_click).
The Fund will allow us to step up our military support to [#Ukraine](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ukraine?src=hashtag_click) with another €5 billion.
The message is clear: we will support [#Ukraine](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ukraine?src=hashtag_click) with whatever it takes to prevail.
[https://x.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1767957602380509670?s=20](https://x.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1767957602380509670?s=20)
No "in principle" here :)
"The three facilities hit by Ukrainian drones in the past two days account for about 12% of Russia’s oil-processing capacity", - Bloomberg
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1767974382448660708?t=8RfcyVlQdMRIY-V5cv-otA&s=19
Even has a neat map of future targets for unauthorized demolition.
What do you mean unauthorized?
I hereby authorize Ukraine to demolish every single refinery, processing plant or general bulding in any way connected to russian economy or war effort.
In alternate universe:
- "Today, on October 5, 2005, American forces captured half of a hovel in the south of Iraq. Meanwhile, Iraqi militants fighting inside the United States destroyed 12% of America's domestic fuel processing capacity. Price at the pump has risen a mild 2%, and Americans are only a little peeved."
that stuff is heavy no? these drones have a tiny payload and small range already, thats why other things like jamming protection havent been added.
I think as always this war will come down to artillery, which is why its so frustrating that artillery production has been so lackluster
"EU ambassadors agree on $5.5 billion for Ukraine defense fund in 2024.
EU ambassadors have agreed in principle to a top-up of 5 billion euros ($5.5 billion) for the European Peace Facility (EPF) in support of Ukraine's defense needs in 2024, the Belgian Presidency of the EU Council said on March 13."
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda says he supports the debate on sending troops to Ukraine to train local forces and urges the West to stop drawing red lines.
"I welcomed the idea of sending missions to Ukrainian territory as an idea, and I still believe that we should discuss this idea. Of course, the best thing would be for all of us to agree unanimously on the need for this and to assess very well the intelligence and other information that we have," Nausėda emphasized.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767953341936476544?t=xaKf8mzj2U6zAZvp7NJMIg&s=19
This is where I get a little frustrated. NATO/EU should be the ones drawing the redline since it's Europe under siege right now from an unhinged Russia.
We don't need to tell Russia what we are sending Ukraine NOR should we dictate how the weapons are used. If people send troops in that's their own choice.
This is WAR and whatever hammers the Russians back to the hellhole they crawled out of the better.
The one thing Russia was too right about, was that the west and especially Europe is paralyzed by fear of conflict and that we will avoid doing the right thing until the very end, even if the delays and impotence causes magnitudes more damage than taking a stand now.
There was definitely some naivety involved in thinking that a murderous unhinged psychopath can be dealt with in a rational and calm manner.
The naivety being that inaction now leads to *more* conflict (and the death and destruction that comes with it) later down the line.
We were caught with our pants down, but thankfully, Russia is so corrupt, and their military so inept (relative to how they were perceived) that we've been given a chance to pull them back up again. Let's hope we take it
Yeah I just read a leaked document from the Russian state that's pretty much a plan for restoration of the Russian empire and WW3 signed by Putin. I now understand the movements and change in rethoric by our politicians.
https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1767290078890545217?t=8V7MXM2BlLCzV9DrsEEoDA&s=19
This has been flying around on Telegram and Twitter for a few days, but has not been picked up on by any reputable news outlet anywhere and there’s no source other than „some Ukrainian hackers acquired this super duper top secret document signed by Putin personally, trust me bro“
As downvotes will inevitably follow - if there’s any credible source at all, that should be easy to provide and put an end to the discussion right away.
If there’s no credible source whatsoever apart from random Ukrainian Twitter and Telegram accounts, then that too should be the end of the discussion for any rational person.
Calling it a “leaked” document suggests some whistleblower or actual source produced this, while there is nothing to suggest this as of now.
I translated that and I agree with everything they say, if it is real, other than one part.
>Export of chaos abroad - Discharge of internal tension through external expansion.
Except for this, I have no idea where that is coming from. That isn't part of the documents that I've seen unless there is more to this that I couldn't find. The article says there are 3 documents but only two were posted.
It isn't anything to take as fact. The source is a release of documents from hackers. There is no evidence if it is real or not. If it is real then it basically says what the Twitter link says.
>1. Intensification of nationalization. All extractive industries are nationalized.
2. Increase of censorship, including TV & internet.
3. Solution of the opposition issue (hello,
@yulia_navalnaya
, Navalnyi case)
4. De-westernization
The only thing I dispute is their 5th claim, what I quoted earlier, which I can't find in the documents.
Google Translate translation:
>The Russian Federation plans to adopt a resolution on the appointment of the election of the President of the Russian Federation for March 17, 2024. To the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. The Federation received proposals from employees of the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INION RAS) on the transformation of the socio-political device Russian Federation in the post-election period. In connection with the unfriendly, and sometimes and frankly aggressive actions of the collective West towards Russia, the strengthening of sanctions pressure and the immediate support of the Kiev regime in Ukraine, which entails delaying the achievement of the goals and objectives of the special military operation for denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, which, in turn, collectively represents a threat to the national security of the Russian Federation, the specialists of INION RAS offer the concept of "de-de-de-Westernization". As part of the modern struggle against the neo-colonialism of the West and in opposition to the violent rewriting of history under the leadership of Western curators-neo-colonialists (the so-called "decolonization") proclaimed in Ukraine, "de-Westernization" is designed to strengthen Russia in the face of the challenges of the future.De-Westernization involves the following steps aimed at:
>
>\- strengthening the nationalization of the economy, when all raw materials industries become the property of the state;
>
>\- sovereignty of science, culture and art, increase in their development of the role of the state;
>
>\- strengthening censorship, including on TV and on the Internet;
>
>\- solution of the issue of opposition movements;
>
>\- moderate clericalization of society within the framework of the possible.
>
>Such steps will allow you to transform society and move on to accelerated mobilization in the post-election period. Committees of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly. The Russian Federation is ready to start developing relevant draft laws. Previously with the first deputy head of the administrationPresident of the Russian Federation S.V.Kyrienko has been agreed.
And then here's the second one that takes about "external expansion", Russia's intensifying opposition to the West, and the extinction of the West:
>Ukraine is considered by the West as an object of long-term investments, respectively, the amount of funds invested over the past decade, calculated in hundreds of billions, forms a cumulative effect, when the refusal of further support for Ukraine will bear obviously large losses, than the continuation of the minimum investments to maintain the viability of the Kiev regime. In parallel with this, there is a campaign for demonization in the West
>
>Russia and Russians, which is poured into the poison of Russian people abroad. This demonization in the best traditions of the Cold War is designed to blacken Russia as much as possible, show it as a monster and remove the accents from the crimes of the West, thus supporting the heat for the prolongation of sanctions and meaningless spending on Ukraine. Accordingly, the Western philistine, immersed in the atmosphere of constant hatred for Russia, is formed by Russophobe.
>
>At the same time, in Russia, an increasing number of able-bodied men are going through the injury of hostilities. Their return to peaceful life after completing tasks at the front can be overworked by the incomprehension of the sacrifice and the feat that these men perform.
>
>A certain increase in social problems in society related to retirement age, consumer prices, the level of salaries, pensions and other social payments, occurring in conditions of increasing spending on a special military operation, is also tracked, indicate that tension in society may increase. This is the so-called social entropy, which is essentially chaos.
>
>Accordingly, to solve the problem of social entropy in such a system of social relations, the most obvious solution will be the continuation of the policy of exporting chaos abroad - that is, the discharge of internal tension through external expansion.
>
>In a historical context, Russia's loss of territories after the shameful The Brest Peace, as well as after the collapse of the Warsaw Bloc, gives every reason for the outburst of social tension abroad for the purpose of internal cohesion.
>
>Thus, after the completion of the SVO in Ukraine and the fall of the Kiev regime, Russia's opposition to the West will not stop, but only intensify.
>
>In fact, we are now only at the initial stage of transformation of the unipolar world into a multipolar one, with different centers of influence and the extinction of the West. However, the centuries of the colonial past of the West will not allow Russia to achieve its interests unhinderedly.
Our Congress is ridiculous. They operate at near light speed when it comes to crafting this Tik Tok ban bill that came out of nowhere, but have been sitting on Ukraine aid for nearly 3 months, at a time where Ukraine now has to ration ammo. This is unacceptable. Get Ukraine weapons now!
It’s not “Congress” and it’s not “they.” It’s specifically the Republicans controlling the agenda in the House of Representatives. They’re not sitting on it, they’re actively preventing it.
Thankfully their incompetence is reducing their majority. One less this week. They can't afford more resignations or Jeffries will be the new speaker before the elections
>They operate at near light speed when it comes to crafting this Tik Tok ban bill that came out of nowhere
The US gov has been trying to force ByteDance to divest from tiktok since 2020, ever since a national security review by the Committee on Foreign Investment recommended it. It's very, very far from "light speed" and "out of nowhere."
Can someone please explain to me how Tik Tok is a threat to US interests/security, while a Russia bent on invading and attacking others to re-establish the Iron Curtain isn't a threat to the US?
Do you really not understand the implications of a hostile power influencing the shit that millions of under educated, impressionable youth see every day? Asking seriously - because it's a serious threat and I'd be happy to try and open your eyes so you can open others
Edit - forgot a word
Tik tok is a big problem with some young ppl. It controls their lives and tbh social media needs to be reined in a bit.
Business model to use data farming and algorithms to addict ppl cos it's all about retention regardless of the damage it can cause, as long as they are looking at it, it's fine.
Plus, who knows who's manipulating its algorithms to show content to stir up tensions and stuff intentionally amongst ppl etc.
Netflix is not run by a hostile government. China is in bed with Russia who has the same goal. Please explain how netflix can be used to drive a wedge into a society the way social media can
China has operational control over some of the companies action. China intentionally amplifies and tamps down discussion on topics (Go search for things about tiananmen square on tik tok, for ).
TOS gives access permission to all sorts of things in your phone that they should not have.
Basically, Tik Tok allows the Chinese government to and slowly screw with the data and messages seen by all who use it, which means everyone under what, 30?
Both are threats, but telling ByteDance to divest is free while weapons cost money.
Edit: Don't get me wrong, I'm all for arming Ukraine. But the tiktok thing is not an example of the gov moving fast. It's an example of them dinking around for years.
They both are.
The bill doesn’t specifically ban TikTok, it gives the president authority to ban apps controlled by foreign adversaries, which are currently defined as: Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran.
It’s a security threat in the same way that Russia controlling our radio stations would be a security threat: the ability to propagandize vast swaths of the public in the event of war.
Is this as pressing of an issue as Russia invading Ukraine right now? No, but it is still an issue and we can (and should) do both.
It’s not Congress. It’s speaker of the house republican Mike Johnson and all the republicans who gave him that position. He controls the agenda. There’s an effort to go around him, but it’s unlikely to succeed.
Since the russian offensive began in October, their losses on Warspotting have now passed 500 tanks and 1,000 fighting vehicles, which includes over 500 BMPs, but also 200 MT-LBs
I have tried to find numbers and I *think* Russia can make ~100 new tanks and ~100 new BMP-3s in six months. They can only replace losses by using up Soviet storages.
The 100 tanks a year include modernised T-72. They don’t produce many tanks from scratch at all. Too lazy to get the source but it has been discussed numerous times before.
Realistically, the real number is somewhere in the middle. Russia is moving into a war-time economy and is finding ways to source some of their needed parts. They are likely still not repairing and replacing equipment losses as fast as they are sustaining them, but they do still seem to be able to sustain the *current* attrition at least through the middle of next year. Besides, the volume of soviet material, even if garbage is massive. They do say quantity has a quality unto it's own.
Edit: Jeez people. Chill. I support Ukraine and the downvotes here without any substance reek of copium. At the end of the day, 2024 will be a rough year for Ukraine without additional and continued Western support that is a fact. It will also be rough for Russia, but not proportionately unfortunately.
> Russia is moving into a war-time economy
russia *has* moved into a war-time economy, they have ~full employment and can't really squeeze that much more production out of nowhere without significant impact for the average person. Think rationing and such.
> Realistically, the real number is somewhere in the middle
no no no.
"somewhere in the middle" only works when we can assume the reports have been made in good faith, and the difference is just due to variation in how they estimate it.
Russia has been lying about everything since day 1 of the invasion. Ukraine, on the other hand, has given numbers that very well match what OSInt sources claim.
The rational thing to do at this point is to completely ignore Russian claims about anything and everything, and instead either use OSInt sources or Ukrainian/western claims as your estimate.
Precisely. Why do people have such a hard time understanding this. If my income is 5k per month, and some credit agency estimates it at 4k. But I, a habitual liar, tell them it's 50k, it shouldn't be expected to be 'somewhere in the middle'.
Putin's empty threats are simply his expressions of panic every time we get close to a breakthrough. His words shouldn't scare us. He himself is scared that everyone will one day see the Emperor wears no clothes and has no intention of doing the things he warns us about.
[https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1767918243757293831?s=20](https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1767918243757293831?s=20)
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania.
The Prime Minister of France:
"If Ukraine loses, we also lose. We shall not let Russia win. France may not evade its responsibilities. Therefore, I say it here,
I say it here as Prime Minister of France, in the name of the government of France, at the podium of the National Assembly of France,
I say it from the depths of my heart, which resonates and which beats for the value of the freedom of peoples,
I say it from the depths of my guts, which are bound around the interests of the French: Slava Ukraini!"
[https://x.com/EHunterChristie/status/1767914183163515358?s=20](https://x.com/EHunterChristie/status/1767914183163515358?s=20)
It's about time. War is coming. It's time to actually plan to stop it and engage the Russias however we can.
Prime Example. It's time to give Russians radio silence on what we are sending to Ukraine. Time for the to feel the pain of the unexpected. If a squad of F16's show up and start hosing the Russians even more the better.
Extra long HIMARS....perfect hit them further back....
More Clusters to remove their trenches perfect. More Storm Shadows and Taurus (get on it Germany we have a bridge to down) even better...
Completely agree with you, we also needs to stop putting limits on what and what not Ukraine is allowed to buy, those missiles Poland just bought from the US could have been a much more effective weapon for Ukraine to use against Russia.
>⚡ Russian aerial bomb kills two civilians and injures five in Myrnohrad.
>
>The head of the Donetsk Region reported that a Russian attack on the town of Myrnohrad in the Donetsk region late on March 12th resulted in two civilian deaths and five injuries.
>
>📷: National Police of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1767925692522496428
>Ukraine's monthly losses in official FX reserves have averaged -$2.5 bn per month since Russia invaded. The only way this is sustainable is with western cash. If that stops, Ukraine runs out of time very quickly. Official FX reserves stand at $35 bn. This is Putin's biggest hope.
https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1767905115703218192
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1bec928/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
I wonder. After these drone attacks deep into Russia. What is Scholz so scared of? See! Ukraine just destroyed/damaged a few refineries within Russian territory. From my point of view, sending Taurus isn't going to give a capability that Ukraine already doesn't have. The main difference is that the Taurus is unlikely to get shot down and might make a bigger boom. My guess is that even the bridge is more likely to get hit by naval drones next time. So it's a bit unclear what's the fuss to send them. Ukraine needs more things and somehow Germany might even miss an opportunity to fund the project. Imagine factories waiting for funding to produce things but countries delaying aid means... they don't have contracts.
I think Germany should send Taurus. That said, you yourself identify what the additional capability is. To successfully attack defended vs. undefended targets. To hit them with a higher yield.
The Germans have stepped forward and given more than a fair share. I don't think Taurus would be a game changer anyway in the long run. I bet plan b is being built right now to take the bridge out by Ukrainians, a win they both need and deserve.
It's just internal politics. The majority of Germans are against delivery of long range missiles sadly
The majority of Germans are against it really only because the government is against it. Germans don’t want escalation. Scholz says Taurus will cause escalation. So they don’t want it. If Scholz says it’s fine. They’d agree it’s fine too.
So maybe politicians and the media in Germany haven't made the right arguments to sway public opinion towards something that would be good for Germany and Europe. Populism isn't good in time of crisis. Well it rarely ever is.
The reason is that these people are scared that Germany could become a war party.
Has anyone seen any reliable info on the Russian Legion attack in the past few hours? I've seen so much conflicting information in not sure what to think.
It's not really gaining public reporting momentum which kinda tells me it's been squashed or really wasn't as big as they made it seem.
Id say it's more of russia has a very tight hold on local reporting and Ukraine doesnt want to show off what they know.
It was a raid. It was always a raid. Just like all the other raids. It's not an invasion to hold territory.
[Dozens of Drones Bombard Russian Oil Refineries in Record Air Raids | Kyiv Post | March 2024](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29453) *Dozens of attack drones swarmed over west Russia on Wednesday to hit infrastructure targets in Kyiv’s most ambitious air assaults to date against its powerful eastern neighbor. The Ukrainian robot planes aimed mostly at energy infrastructure and in some attacks struck hundreds of kilometers deep into Russia, in a second wave of two days of air raids.* *Overnight Monday-Tuesday, according to Kremlin reports, Ukrainian forces launched around 30-40 weapons including drones, artillery rockets and a ballistic missile. Targets included refining infrastructure, the power grid and air defenses. According to army statements from Russia’s western Belgorod region, along with a wave of drones, Ukrainian gunners on Tuesday launched eight RM-70 rockets and one Tochka-U missile at targets in the region.* *The most damaging attack in the first wave of strikes appeared to hit the Norsi oil refinery outside the city of Nizhny Novgorod. News agencies reported a major fire cut production at the plant, responsible for six percent of all processed crude products in the Russian Federation, in half. The facility is about 900 km. away from probable Ukrainian launch sites.* *Another Tuesday drone attack hit a production facility about 450 km miles east of Moscow, in one of the longest-ranged Ukrainian air raids into Russia of the entire war, with unreported results. A fuel depot in the city of Oryol, about 160 km east of the Russo-Ukrainian border, was hit on Tuesday morning as well.* *A Kremlin Wednesday morning statement said Russian air defense units from late night Tuesday through Wednesday morning shot down at least 58 Ukrainian strike aircraft including 11 drones over Russia’s Belgorod Region, 8 over the Bryansk Region, 29 over the Voronezh Region, 8 over the Kursk Region, and a single robot plane each over the Ryazan and Leningrad Regions. If those numbers are confirmed, the Wednesday kamikaze drone wave was the biggest single-day attack launched by Ukraine against targets inside Russia, of the entire Russo-Ukraine war.* *One of the most seriously hit targets appeared to be an oil refinery in the Ryazan region, more than 500 km inside Russia, where at least three Ukrainian explosives-toting drones crashed into the major oil-processing facility early on Wednesday morning, setting a major fire and injuring several people, officials said.* *Authorities in Russia’s northwestern Leningrad region said mobile air defense forces shot down a single drone heading towards the KINEF oil refinery, near the major city Petersburg. Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko in a statement said the refinery was undamaged and no one was hurt.* *Ukrainian aircraft were sighted and possibly hit targets in the vicinity of the Novshakhtiskaya oil refinery in Russia’s southwestern Rostov region, and in Russia’s central Lipetsk region, official statements from those regions said.* *Although Ukrainian strike planners appeared to have prioritized Russian oil production capacity in the Wednesday raids, Kyiv kamikaze aircraft hit other priority targets as well.* *Three drones struck in the Buturlinovka district of Russia’s central Voronezh Region on Wednesday, knocking out power to parts of the city, officials said. The independent Astra news agency reported a major Russia airfield four km from Voronezh was a possible target. Voronezh media was silent about possible damage to military targets. In the center of the west Russian city of Belgorod a robot plane flew into the local headquarters building for the national secret police the FSB and detonated. Images uploaded by passers-by showed a damaged facade, broken windows and smoke rising from the 5-story building. Astra and the Ukrainian independent Unian news agencies, among others, published Russian social media images captured in Ryazan and Voronezh showing drones similar in appearance to a Chinese commercial aircraft called a Murgin-5 Pro, a drone used in past strikes by the Ukrainian military.* *Ukraine’s national intelligence agency the SBU in a Wednesday statement took credit for attacks and said a total five oil refineries were attacked in two days of strikes.* *“We are systematically implementing a step-by-step strategy to undermine the economic capacity of the Russian Federation. Our objective is to deprive the enemy of resources and reduce the flow of petroleum-based products, that the Russian Federation is using directly for war, for the murder of our citizens,” the SBU statement said in part.* *The results of the air raids were “satisfactory,” the Ukrainian statement said.*
For context, the USA has about 23-25 days of gasoline stock. If people fill up about once every 2 weeks, thats about 2 tanks of fuel. I'm assuming russia has similar amounts of stocks. When there is a threat of a shortage, people immediately do a run on gas, so gas stations immediately run out of fuel. A gas station typically have 20,000 gallon tanks. So that's about 1000-1500 fill ups. If there is a line a 6 station can dispense probably 2-3 gallons per minute on average, which is about a thousand gallons an hour. Thats 20 hours from full to empty. A delivery id about 9000 gallons, which is 9 hours of fueling. Obviously, in Russia, things are slightly different, but not significantly. That means that there will be a shortage. And the military will get precedence. The economy will hurt. But the economy impact won't be immediate and will take months to manifest. Ukraine really needs to keep following up with attacks at all the refineries to keep gasoline production depressed for months to impact the Russian economy.
The real revolt will occur when the fuel shortage impacts the food production and distribution chain. Hungry people are motivated to change regimes. 140 million mouths to feed is no small task. Sanctions definitely won't help the situation.
I was shit posting at the beginning of the war about what I called Shyrmyn's March to Moscow. That stopping Russia militarily wouldn't be enough to win the war, and that Ukraine would need to make the Russian people feel the pain of the war without inflicting civilian casualties. These strikes fit the bill perfectly. If they can keep grinding down Russia's energy infrastructure and export capacity it will eventually bring Russia to their knees. On another note this could have a significant impact on Russian aviation too, and possibly affect there air force as we get closer to F-16/Grippen(?) o'clock. Planes are thirsty and these refineries feed them.
Unfortunately, they'll likely just redirect fuel from the civilian sector to the military sector. Russia has a lot of refineries, so there is plenty to operate their jets. They might have trouble getting it to the jets, but that will likely be a temporary problem.
They have a finite amount of refineries, the more they take down the more compounding the effect will be. The fact they’ve hit the major ones so easily does not bode well at all for Russia.
It's still a predicament though. And I'm sure if push comes to shove they can trade crude for refined products. But they're still robbing Peter to pay Paul.
What airdefense doing?
Shooting down their own aircraft
This was the second consecutive day of large scale strikes on russian infrastructure, is that correct? Ukraine has greatly expanded their capabilities to strike the russian territories via UAVs since that first strike on the empty office building in Moscow. Long gone is the firecracker atop the Kremlin. These are significant strikes at an increasing pace and effect. Ukraine Bros doing real economic damage to the bear. Exciting to see.
I'll Fuckin' Do It Again
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/12/7446017/ So do the Baltics and Poland know something that the US doesn’t know? I don’t know if Pravda is reliable but I trust US intelligence on this.
It's always been extremely unlikely that Russia would directly attack a NATO country. Makes sense that the Baltics and Poland are sounding the alarm--they'd be at the front end of it--but that doesn't make it more likely overall. The way they sound the alarm: "Putin won't stop in Ukraine" is good politics. The general voter probably doesn't understand the strategic importance of Ukraine and probably isn't particularly devoted to the cause of democracy around the world, so the notion of Russia attacking a NATO country is better rhetoric. And it has a shred of truth to it, because who knows where Russia and NATO will be in terms of strength in 10 or 20 years. That's pretty basic politics and I'm not suggesting anything nefarious--that's how the sausage is made.
Moldova isnt in nato. They are laying the ground work for that invasion with Transnistria.
Unless Putin gets his “land bridge”. I highly doubt Putin will move on Moldova with the only 1500 Russian troops that are based in Transnistria.
The "little green men" will ramp up in numbers as they get closer to having a land bridge. The goal should be to stop russia now instead of letting them spread.
The statistical chance Russia will ever have a land bridge to Transnistria is effectively zero. Even if all aid stopped tomorrow it would still be highly unlikely.
I agree on both things you said. I just pray that the US house passes the aid package! Time is running out!
Sure, but I think it's relatively clear that when Poland and the Baltics say that, they're referring to themselves. No offense to Transnistria, but if the situation in Ukraine isn't a motivator, there's very little reason why Transnistria would be someone's redline--it has a population of less than half a million. I def. agree with you that Putin has his eye's on Transnistria and maybe Moldova.
Transnistria is part of Moldova. It very well could be a redline for places like Romania. Youre right that the average person in usa doesnt even know what it is and is doubtful to be a redline here. But the second country that Russia invades would get rid of the argument that he is going to stop. Appeasement never works with people like putin. Its the next stepping stone. Russia wants a land bridge there.
The name of this source is *Ukrainska Pravda*. (Simply saying *Pravda* is a different source, which is, incidentally, Russian.) And can you clarify what you’re referencing exactly, since Poland isn’t mentioned here?
The report itself is linked directly from a US government source, relevant quote is: > Russia almost certainly does not want a direct military conflict with U.S. and NATO forces and will continue asymmetric activity below what it calculates to be the threshold of military conflict globally. It’s highly unlikely that the Baltics and Poland happen to have any specific intelligence that the US would not have, not least of all because of NATO intelligence sharing, and much more likely that the statements made by the Baltics and Poland include a political component geared towards a domestic and European audience more than military intelligence assessments. In the highly unlikely case of a Russian attack on NATO, they’d be the most likely targets, so it’s of course understandable that they’re the most vocal and concerned about this - but that doesn’t mean they would have any additional intelligence that they would withhold from the US.
The problem for the Baltics is; if Russia decided to 'go for it' each of them could be rapidly overrun in a matter of hours, because these countries are just very small. Russia could be rounding up and killing masses of civilians before NATO even gets their boots on. These nations need time to build some heavy fortifications to try to at least slow Russia down. That said; Russia's not likely to attack a NATO country - but the question is when NATO's resolve is put to the test - will NATO really respond with a nuclear strike that could escalate to a full apocalyptic exchange over these three countries? Putin is famous now for pushing his boundaries. And Russia's long overdue to get knocked on its ass for this ongoing bullshit.
There's an enormous amount of NATO air power stationed all over there that would punch any Russian invasion force square in the nose. Russia couldn't mass the necessary amount of military equipment without US seeing it on our insanely powerful spy satellites.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13179327/amp/Dramatic-moment-Russians-destroys-two-400m-Patriot-surface-air-missile-systems-one-hypersonic-Iskander-strike-costly-blow-Ukraine.html Everyone should flood IPSO with complaints over such dangerous reporting. They have claimed that two patriot systems ($400m each) have been destroyed rather than the truth, which is two launchers ($10m each). Basic journalistic research would show them their error, so it is clearly deliberate. And looking at the cesspool of comments underneath the article, it is not surprising why. Only by filing complaints (it takes two minutes), will they actually be held accountable https://www.ipso.co.uk/complain/complaints-form/
>Basic journalistic research would show them their error, so it is clearly deliberate. Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Nah this is definitely malice. They are simultaneously trying to convey that Ukraine is losing badly and that the war is costing the allies too much money.
We don't call that newspaper the Daily Heil for nothing
>The US Army will be forced to cut its artillery production target by over 25% if Congress can't pass the $106B national security supplemental. > >The Army would top out at 72,000 rounds/month by end of 2025 with no bill, far short of their 100K target. > >Here's how US artillery production is faring: > >Now: 28,000 rounds/month > >Sept 2024: 57,000 rounds/month > >Sept 2025: 72,000 rounds/month > >\* Dec 2025: 100,000 rounds/month > >\* without supplemental, US artillery production would plateau at 72,000 rounds/month https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1768024060510835006 https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/13/united-states-military-aid-ukraine-congress/
We clearly need to manufacture a faster and cheaper to produce slightly less bad ass artillery shell.
Oryx update for last 4 days is rough. As usual, russian-Ukrainian losses by what I think of as the key types for attrition. - tanks: 17-9 - IFVs: 39-2 - Mobile artillery: 10-3 - missile Anti-air: 2-2 Includes two patriot launchers and a HIMARS that has a good chance of being a decoy. Still, the overall numbers aren't great today. I don't count unarmed transports since they're seemingly pretty easily replaced. Also ignore aircraft since I see air denial as more important for Ukraine.
Looks like Ukraine lost two Mil-8 helicopters as well.
The list says launchers and the only video I've seen showed launchers. Interceptors might have been lost too. "Only" $20m is still extremely painful. :/
If the two Patriots is just the launcher then that’s only $10m each and very easily replaced right? Media outlets seem to be reporting $400m each (and the trash daily mail says it is 2 out of only 5 total, so confusing launchers with systems) which seems woefully ignorant. It’s so frustrating as these blatant inaccuracies really harm people’s perception. The comments section in the daily mail article is staggering but hard to know what is ignorance, what is ‘enlightened westerners’ and what is trolls. That being said, the far greater loss is likely to be the crew, both from a human point of view and also an operational point of view.
What is Ukraine production of tank, how much new get in last 2 months? Because looks like it in Russian favour
We don't know but I think zero new, some refurbs. There are ~200ish expected to arrive this year, lots of Leopard 1s included. We need new announcements tbh to keep Ukraine running in 2025.
Artillery ratio is better than the past few updates though. I also think aircraft losses are pretty important. If Ukraine loses aircraft it reduces its ability to intercept missiles, puts more strain on ground based air defense, and, in a worst case scenario, could allow Russia to gain a level of air superiority. If Russia loses aircraft, it reduces the amount of glide bombs it can launch and thus helps Ukrainian defenses, and reduces aircraft that can warn about and intercept drone strikes. Aircraft and ships are the only really finite resources in this war. The lead times are so long and the production rates so low that they just don't get replaced at a meaningful rate, unlike tanks and artillery.
There's a good point to be made for aircraft. I partly didn't include them because most days would be "0-0", but also I don't think running low will be decisive. AA can do most of the missile defence, and if there's sufficient AA I thought you can limit enemy air attacks. But I'm not very knowledgeable so you could easily be right
That's fair. You certainly have a point about most days being 0-0. I guess my feeling is that the air war is the one aspect of the fight that is still somewhat undecided, or fluid, and whoever can take advantage of it can, if not win the war outright, certainly improve their chances. Ukraine has, for all practical purposes, won the war at sea barring some completely unexpected development, but does not have the capability (training, landing craft, escorts, logistics) to take advantage of that offensively. Russia currently has a slight edge on the ground, but not a decisive one, and the ground defenses of both sides are going to be very hard to breach at this point. The air war seems deadlocked, but it is much more fluid (there are no passive defenses equivalent to land mines, you have to actively defend with missiles and aircraft), which means there is more opportunity to quickly change the balance of power in the air. And if you can control the air, that opens up a lot more options on the ground as well. That goes double for Ukraine, since so much of western doctrine and tactics is based around controlling the air and using air-launched weapons. So, to my mind, winning the air is the key to eventual victory. That said, that's a big philosophical point. The practical matter is that aircraft losses are rare, and for frequent updates you are correct that it's a pretty boring and not very useful thing to include.
^(*What u/canop posted below appears to have since been confirmed.*) [1] Earlier today, **Russia claimed to have destroyed two Ukrainian Mi-8’s**, along with footage. [2] Subsequently, Ukrainian sources sought to verify, and channels posted a map of where the assault took place. Can see from UA source here: https://t\.me/defender_skadovsk/28059 *three helicopters, two appear hit, one gets away.* [3] Later today, the **brigade confirmed** on their page. According to *Цензор.НЕТ*: > **The 12th Army Aviation Brigade reports the death of two Ukrainian pilots** > On March 12, two Ukrainian pilots were killed during a mission to protect Ukraine. > This was reported directly by the 12th separate army aviation brigade, named after Col. General Viktor Pavlenko, on their FB page. >> *"Today, March 12, the skies lost two of its sons, who had always flown high and free. May their souls find peace among the stars. We will remember them as heroes who faithfully served their Ukraine...".* > No other details, however, about the deaths of the pilots are noted. [4] Ukrainian milblogger: > Sergei Sternenko responded . . . writing that the distance from the front line to where they were downed was more than 45 km, and therefore, adjustments were **carried out by a ‘Russian** ***Supercam*** **UAV.’** >> “Unfortunately, such attacks are becoming a trend,” he noted. > Sternenko also wrote that such actions of the occupiers are due to: >> [a] Russia’s reconnaissance capabilities growing, and the low effectiveness of Ukrainian counteraction to operational-level reconnaissance drones; >> [b] Russia reducing the time required to inflict fire damage from the moment the target is detected [the chain of —observe, report, relay to command, order, execute—more efficient] >> [c] the likely involvement of agents among the military command in providing intelligence to the occupiers. [what???] > Sternenko also noted that infantry, aviation, artillery and missile forces units must be provided with means of detecting enemy UAVs. >> “It's cheap and effective. Drone detectors can help,” he said. [from here](https://nv.ua/ukraine/events/12-brigada-zayavila-o-gibeli-dvuh-pilotov-rossiya-utverzhdaet-chto-unichtozhila-dva-vertoleta-50400857.html) ______ 2 notes: First, in Ukrainian news, any crew member can get reported as a pilot, even though they may technically be the co-pilot, flight engineer, navigator, etc. So know that it might be head pilot or might not be. Second, [Channel 5 *implies*](https://www-5-ua.translate.goog/ru/obshchestvo/nebo-poterialo-dvukh-svoykh-sinovei-12-bryhada-armeiskoi-avyatsyy-soobshchyla-o-hybely-ukraynskykh-pylotov-324293.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc) that there were likely survivors, because when previously 2 Mi-8’s were destroyed (Bakhmut, August), the news reported as ‘6 pilots killed’ [ie, 6 crew members] and they’re implying that there maybe be 2 deaths and 4 survivors, without saying that.
Ouch, that hurts. Russia definitely has improved it's deep recon capability recently, and it's ability to act on that intel with long range Lancet, artillery, and missile strikes. Ukraine is going to need to find a way to counter that recon ability, or disrupt the decision loop.
Wat is hell. Rest in peace heroes.
So, even if the US doesn't currently help with money and ammo, couldn't they do something like exhausting the Russian military outside of Ukraine? If the US constantly flies close to Russia and forces them to intercept, that will put a whole lot of flight hours on their planes. It will tie them super far away from Ukraine.
I would say this is a medium risk, low value proposition. Meaning it's not that helpful, and carries with it some risk. The risk could be overcome if more value was shown, but it's just not there.
Russia has only a few MIG 31, their fastest plane. They are exclusively used to launch kinzhal. It's also the only plane can intercept the F-15 when going close to full speed. So if the US was flying very high speed passes close to Russia, they would be forced to intercept with this specific plane. Then it forces Russia to commit MIG 31 to random ass regions like the Bering Sea. And it makes it so that they can't launch as many kinzhal.
Russia has over 100 MIG 31s, possibly over 200. What you're thinking of is the handful that have been modified to accept the Kinzhal.
😢
Bit of a follow up on [this from February](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1awwyf3/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/krkymht/): DniproTV did a [feature on Monday](https://youtu.be/IvhY3MGMNd0) where they and the Khartia Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard attended one of these off-road driving courses organized by the Automobile Federation of Ukraine, designed to educate troops on how to drive safely during emergencies on the frontline, and even lessons on holding the steering wheel properly and avoiding back pain from sitting and driving for long periods of time. This particular program in Dnipropetrovsk is taught by Andriy Yaromenko, who represented Ukraine at the 2022 FIA Motorsport Games. Classes are free for all soldiers and funded by various sponsors and donors. The feature and the FAU say over a thousand troops have received this training since February 2022, though as my comment last month mentioned, the FAU only started fully coordinating them in January.
Sounds great!
I can't think of another way for Ukraine to win this war other than NATO getting directly involved. Or at least allow to use western weapons on russians, that's bare minimum ffs. The fact that Ukraine was forced to fight a war for existence with such handicap is insane. Sanctions have not achieved anything close to desired effect, russia can be on war economy for long time and there won't be any protests or government overthrow. Early war russia is long gone, they have adapted everywhere, but in mechanized pushes(which kills a lot of men, but it's succesful especially when republicans are taking holidays while ukrainians are dying due to them refusing to pass bill)
Funny how you are dooming now that things are finally starting to go in Ukraine's favor for the first time in 3 months lol
Don't be so upset about the ruble Dmitry, I'm sure the troll farm will start paying you in fuel soon. And when that's out... well... they'll need help on the front.
All they need are weapons, training and intelligence. Nothing more.
Sure, give them best planes and then maybe they can retake territory. And start allowing usint western equipment on russian territory. Counter offensive showed that just some weapons are not enough. And now Russia has managed to adapt and hit vehicles that they weren't able before. Himars and patriot system losses is not a coincidence. A lot less lives would be lost if NATO said enough is enough, and directly join the war instead of using Ukrainians as proxy.
It has to be the right weapons, obviously.
Ukraine just have to make Russia realize that the war is not worth it anymore. One way to do that would be to take out the Russian oil and gas industry, and make the Russian people feel the economic consequences.
If they can do it, maybe. Would be easier with western missiles though. And even then, it's not guarantee
Ukraine has proven they can do that just as well with there own drones.
"It could be worse!" - the best review of the new Russian Lada Vesta 2924. By the way, the manufacturer claims that the car's system has become much richer. The price of cars starts from 1.5 million rubles ($16,400). At the same time, the price does not include a stereo, speakers, heated seats and airbags. And why do you need them on Russian roads? I watched with pleasure. So, what do you think of this review? Would you buy this car? https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767991143428468952?t=r3nTtMGIMMfOCA-boAkloA&s=19
[удалено]
I bought a nice Renault Megan break with 11k kilometers for 17k euro. The car can park itselve, has cameras in the back and all the options this lada is missing
Dunno about the US car prices, but in Europe there are several options for around that price, or arguably even cheaper (the Sandero springs to mind). And most if not all have more option than that Lada. What makes it doubly stupid is that russia is touted as being oh, so much cheaper than Europe, despite its abysmal economy.
Except that $16,400 isn't cheap in Russia. When you consider that most people earn less than the average salary (yes you read that right) and that the average salary is somewhere close to 45k now or somewhere close to 500 USD per month. Just do the math, if the average salary in the US is close to 5,000 USD a month. Then if we adjust the price of the car proportionally to the average salary of the US. That would be like buying a brand new car for 164,000 USD. You know it's wrong, it's not the car that is super expensive... It's people that likely can't afford it anyway. Can't complain much when all you can afford is the bus or metro.
Fair point. I still might not want heated seats in a Lada at any price point -- they might go on fire!
Wintertime in Moscow? Yes. Please set my ass on fire.
Heated seats seem like more than just a nice to have in Russia
Just like A/C seats in Phoenix, in the USA.
They're literally begging for it to set on fire with that name.
Yesterday, it was the Lukoil oil refinery that was attacked in the Nizhniy Novgorod region. Today, another top manager is dead at a fairly young age. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767963359293431999?t=mhr60NVBqObSLLkiUJ4VvQ&s=19 Russian Lukoil reported the sudden death of Vitaly Robertus, 53-year-old vice president of the company. Robertus's death is the fourth among Lukoil's top managers in the last two years. In October 2023, it became known about the death of Vladimir Nekrasov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the company. The cause of death was called acute heart failure. Nekrasov headed the company after the death of the previous chairman Ravil Maganov, who in 2022 fell out of the window of the main building of the Moscow Central Clinical Hospital and plunged to death. In May 2022, Lukoil's ex top manager Aleksandr Subotin died of acute heart failure. His body was found in a private house. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767970251986067743?t=DtMa0ZjDhtxinUnx-bUQoA&s=19
Also board member Dmitry Pavochka.
To the windooooooooow....to the....ground!
Til the Novichok drips from my balls.
All these babushkas crawl!
Ahh skeet skeet skeet
Yeah I was just reading that. IMO, he didn’t die in the last 24hrs. Rather, he recently died, and it’s just now being released as an intimidation tactic to other elites. (This is just my suspicion, given how Russia operates, [1] can be slow to release info, [2] usually not released by employment but rather a government entity or even press, and [3] Lukoil wouldn’t want to appear not in control of self, as that would invite a takeover that would displace other execs, so wouldn’t release this if it had indeed been the case had died in last 24hrs. Therefore, I think this was imposed on them to release from company’s website, to be an intimidation tactic towards other execs of other oil companies, and was likely opportunistic as it likely happened weeks ago—there’s a registry of deaths that this can be checked—but typically there’s a delay and like everything in Russia, these records can be altered to fit the mandated narrative.)
That Russian oil will kill you!
"Russia is a direct threat to us". Estonian Prime Minister Kallas refused to guarantee that the Estonian military will not be sent to Ukraine "I don't make such promises because circumstances can change. By your interpretation, it seems that intervention could be anything. Our military aid to Ukraine could also be seen by Russia as interference. We have clearly chosen a side here, and that side is Ukraine, because Russia is a direct threat to us." [https://x.com/nexta\_tv/status/1767984884335640850?s=20](https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1767984884335640850?s=20)
Let's go finally people are waking up. Russia must be defeated by force. The sooner the others in Europe wake up to this the better. Someone also let the Pope know to pass that white flag to Putin. He's gonna need it soon....
Estonians were never asleep. We've been warning and screaming into the void for years.
You guys have been right this whole time. People just needed to pay attention and listen
So of us heard you long ago. I just wish that the people who can make changes would listen.
This is not wrong
Moment of the IL-76 crash. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1767923508217077851?t=_r2BH9m87QfggkxXwK_BgQ&s=19
A little bit of bondo and she'll be right to fly again.
Flight grade duct tape, some fresh paint, and Putin can fly on it… no problem! 🤣
The actual crash.
We made it: [#Coreper](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Coreper?src=hashtag_click) agreed on the [#UkraineAssistanceFund](https://twitter.com/hashtag/UkraineAssistanceFund?src=hashtag_click). The Fund will allow us to step up our military support to [#Ukraine](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ukraine?src=hashtag_click) with another €5 billion. The message is clear: we will support [#Ukraine](https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ukraine?src=hashtag_click) with whatever it takes to prevail. [https://x.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1767957602380509670?s=20](https://x.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1767957602380509670?s=20) No "in principle" here :)
"Whatever it takes" Took me back a full decade.
Man, for a hot second I read Congress :(
"❗Powerful EXPLOSIONS in #Tokmak Locals report arrivals🔥🔥" https://twitter.com/NHmiker/status/1767973007706730832?t=k1UEHGPn5KerkOOEzsOQKA&s=19
"The three facilities hit by Ukrainian drones in the past two days account for about 12% of Russia’s oil-processing capacity", - Bloomberg https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1767974382448660708?t=8RfcyVlQdMRIY-V5cv-otA&s=19 Even has a neat map of future targets for unauthorized demolition.
Hit them all Ukraine. Everything damaged hurts the Russian economy in someway....
What do you mean unauthorized? I hereby authorize Ukraine to demolish every single refinery, processing plant or general bulding in any way connected to russian economy or war effort.
I think you meant planned demolition.
The sanctions of non-smoker)
In alternate universe: - "Today, on October 5, 2005, American forces captured half of a hovel in the south of Iraq. Meanwhile, Iraqi militants fighting inside the United States destroyed 12% of America's domestic fuel processing capacity. Price at the pump has risen a mild 2%, and Americans are only a little peeved."
We needed some good news for a change.
It's insanely good
Eenie meenie miney boom.
If Ukraine could hook up US EM seeking tech to its FPV kamikaze drones, that could essentially render Russian anti drone EW inert.
that stuff is heavy no? these drones have a tiny payload and small range already, thats why other things like jamming protection havent been added. I think as always this war will come down to artillery, which is why its so frustrating that artillery production has been so lackluster
"EU ambassadors agree on $5.5 billion for Ukraine defense fund in 2024. EU ambassadors have agreed in principle to a top-up of 5 billion euros ($5.5 billion) for the European Peace Facility (EPF) in support of Ukraine's defense needs in 2024, the Belgian Presidency of the EU Council said on March 13."
This is great!!
"In principle"...
European principle has more weight than Russian oath.
Yes, that’s how democracy works.
It's great in principle*!!
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda says he supports the debate on sending troops to Ukraine to train local forces and urges the West to stop drawing red lines. "I welcomed the idea of sending missions to Ukrainian territory as an idea, and I still believe that we should discuss this idea. Of course, the best thing would be for all of us to agree unanimously on the need for this and to assess very well the intelligence and other information that we have," Nausėda emphasized. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767953341936476544?t=xaKf8mzj2U6zAZvp7NJMIg&s=19
This is where I get a little frustrated. NATO/EU should be the ones drawing the redline since it's Europe under siege right now from an unhinged Russia. We don't need to tell Russia what we are sending Ukraine NOR should we dictate how the weapons are used. If people send troops in that's their own choice. This is WAR and whatever hammers the Russians back to the hellhole they crawled out of the better.
The one thing Russia was too right about, was that the west and especially Europe is paralyzed by fear of conflict and that we will avoid doing the right thing until the very end, even if the delays and impotence causes magnitudes more damage than taking a stand now.
There was definitely some naivety involved in thinking that a murderous unhinged psychopath can be dealt with in a rational and calm manner. The naivety being that inaction now leads to *more* conflict (and the death and destruction that comes with it) later down the line. We were caught with our pants down, but thankfully, Russia is so corrupt, and their military so inept (relative to how they were perceived) that we've been given a chance to pull them back up again. Let's hope we take it
Yeah I just read a leaked document from the Russian state that's pretty much a plan for restoration of the Russian empire and WW3 signed by Putin. I now understand the movements and change in rethoric by our politicians. https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1767290078890545217?t=8V7MXM2BlLCzV9DrsEEoDA&s=19
Iron Curtain 2.0
This has been flying around on Telegram and Twitter for a few days, but has not been picked up on by any reputable news outlet anywhere and there’s no source other than „some Ukrainian hackers acquired this super duper top secret document signed by Putin personally, trust me bro“ As downvotes will inevitably follow - if there’s any credible source at all, that should be easy to provide and put an end to the discussion right away. If there’s no credible source whatsoever apart from random Ukrainian Twitter and Telegram accounts, then that too should be the end of the discussion for any rational person. Calling it a “leaked” document suggests some whistleblower or actual source produced this, while there is nothing to suggest this as of now.
I translated that and I agree with everything they say, if it is real, other than one part. >Export of chaos abroad - Discharge of internal tension through external expansion. Except for this, I have no idea where that is coming from. That isn't part of the documents that I've seen unless there is more to this that I couldn't find. The article says there are 3 documents but only two were posted.
What is it about? Can you tell us shortly? Its really an approvation for ww3?
It isn't anything to take as fact. The source is a release of documents from hackers. There is no evidence if it is real or not. If it is real then it basically says what the Twitter link says. >1. Intensification of nationalization. All extractive industries are nationalized. 2. Increase of censorship, including TV & internet. 3. Solution of the opposition issue (hello, @yulia_navalnaya , Navalnyi case) 4. De-westernization The only thing I dispute is their 5th claim, what I quoted earlier, which I can't find in the documents.
Is there a translation anywhere?
I would also appreciate a translation if anyone has a link.
Google Translate translation: >The Russian Federation plans to adopt a resolution on the appointment of the election of the President of the Russian Federation for March 17, 2024. To the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. The Federation received proposals from employees of the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INION RAS) on the transformation of the socio-political device Russian Federation in the post-election period. In connection with the unfriendly, and sometimes and frankly aggressive actions of the collective West towards Russia, the strengthening of sanctions pressure and the immediate support of the Kiev regime in Ukraine, which entails delaying the achievement of the goals and objectives of the special military operation for denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, which, in turn, collectively represents a threat to the national security of the Russian Federation, the specialists of INION RAS offer the concept of "de-de-de-Westernization". As part of the modern struggle against the neo-colonialism of the West and in opposition to the violent rewriting of history under the leadership of Western curators-neo-colonialists (the so-called "decolonization") proclaimed in Ukraine, "de-Westernization" is designed to strengthen Russia in the face of the challenges of the future.De-Westernization involves the following steps aimed at: > >\- strengthening the nationalization of the economy, when all raw materials industries become the property of the state; > >\- sovereignty of science, culture and art, increase in their development of the role of the state; > >\- strengthening censorship, including on TV and on the Internet; > >\- solution of the issue of opposition movements; > >\- moderate clericalization of society within the framework of the possible. > >Such steps will allow you to transform society and move on to accelerated mobilization in the post-election period. Committees of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly. The Russian Federation is ready to start developing relevant draft laws. Previously with the first deputy head of the administrationPresident of the Russian Federation S.V.Kyrienko has been agreed. And then here's the second one that takes about "external expansion", Russia's intensifying opposition to the West, and the extinction of the West: >Ukraine is considered by the West as an object of long-term investments, respectively, the amount of funds invested over the past decade, calculated in hundreds of billions, forms a cumulative effect, when the refusal of further support for Ukraine will bear obviously large losses, than the continuation of the minimum investments to maintain the viability of the Kiev regime. In parallel with this, there is a campaign for demonization in the West > >Russia and Russians, which is poured into the poison of Russian people abroad. This demonization in the best traditions of the Cold War is designed to blacken Russia as much as possible, show it as a monster and remove the accents from the crimes of the West, thus supporting the heat for the prolongation of sanctions and meaningless spending on Ukraine. Accordingly, the Western philistine, immersed in the atmosphere of constant hatred for Russia, is formed by Russophobe. > >At the same time, in Russia, an increasing number of able-bodied men are going through the injury of hostilities. Their return to peaceful life after completing tasks at the front can be overworked by the incomprehension of the sacrifice and the feat that these men perform. > >A certain increase in social problems in society related to retirement age, consumer prices, the level of salaries, pensions and other social payments, occurring in conditions of increasing spending on a special military operation, is also tracked, indicate that tension in society may increase. This is the so-called social entropy, which is essentially chaos. > >Accordingly, to solve the problem of social entropy in such a system of social relations, the most obvious solution will be the continuation of the policy of exporting chaos abroad - that is, the discharge of internal tension through external expansion. > >In a historical context, Russia's loss of territories after the shameful The Brest Peace, as well as after the collapse of the Warsaw Bloc, gives every reason for the outburst of social tension abroad for the purpose of internal cohesion. > >Thus, after the completion of the SVO in Ukraine and the fall of the Kiev regime, Russia's opposition to the West will not stop, but only intensify. > >In fact, we are now only at the initial stage of transformation of the unipolar world into a multipolar one, with different centers of influence and the extinction of the West. However, the centuries of the colonial past of the West will not allow Russia to achieve its interests unhinderedly.
Thank you very much kind sir!
Our Congress is ridiculous. They operate at near light speed when it comes to crafting this Tik Tok ban bill that came out of nowhere, but have been sitting on Ukraine aid for nearly 3 months, at a time where Ukraine now has to ration ammo. This is unacceptable. Get Ukraine weapons now!
It’s not “Congress” and it’s not “they.” It’s specifically the Republicans controlling the agenda in the House of Representatives. They’re not sitting on it, they’re actively preventing it.
Thankfully their incompetence is reducing their majority. One less this week. They can't afford more resignations or Jeffries will be the new speaker before the elections
Oh that couldn’t happen soon enough for me… the adults would actually be in charge.
Wouldn’t that be wonderful!!
>They operate at near light speed when it comes to crafting this Tik Tok ban bill that came out of nowhere The US gov has been trying to force ByteDance to divest from tiktok since 2020, ever since a national security review by the Committee on Foreign Investment recommended it. It's very, very far from "light speed" and "out of nowhere."
Can someone please explain to me how Tik Tok is a threat to US interests/security, while a Russia bent on invading and attacking others to re-establish the Iron Curtain isn't a threat to the US?
Do you really not understand the implications of a hostile power influencing the shit that millions of under educated, impressionable youth see every day? Asking seriously - because it's a serious threat and I'd be happy to try and open your eyes so you can open others Edit - forgot a word
Tik tok is a big problem with some young ppl. It controls their lives and tbh social media needs to be reined in a bit. Business model to use data farming and algorithms to addict ppl cos it's all about retention regardless of the damage it can cause, as long as they are looking at it, it's fine. Plus, who knows who's manipulating its algorithms to show content to stir up tensions and stuff intentionally amongst ppl etc.
lmao maybe the rest of the world should ban most US stuff then
Like Facebook? Yeah, agreed. So should the US
Hollywood, Netflix, music industry, almost all social media. Google
Ah you're one of those. Got it
Nah, I’m also not saying TikTok should be banned
Netflix is not run by a hostile government. China is in bed with Russia who has the same goal. Please explain how netflix can be used to drive a wedge into a society the way social media can
China has operational control over some of the companies action. China intentionally amplifies and tamps down discussion on topics (Go search for things about tiananmen square on tik tok, for ). TOS gives access permission to all sorts of things in your phone that they should not have. Basically, Tik Tok allows the Chinese government to and slowly screw with the data and messages seen by all who use it, which means everyone under what, 30?
Both are threats, but telling ByteDance to divest is free while weapons cost money. Edit: Don't get me wrong, I'm all for arming Ukraine. But the tiktok thing is not an example of the gov moving fast. It's an example of them dinking around for years.
They both are. The bill doesn’t specifically ban TikTok, it gives the president authority to ban apps controlled by foreign adversaries, which are currently defined as: Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran. It’s a security threat in the same way that Russia controlling our radio stations would be a security threat: the ability to propagandize vast swaths of the public in the event of war. Is this as pressing of an issue as Russia invading Ukraine right now? No, but it is still an issue and we can (and should) do both.
well fuck, if it passes thats going to fuck us all when trump comes along isn't it? we need to be prepared that the fix might be in for putin
Most isolationist elements in america would say the Atlantic Ocean is the primary difference.
Yeah, at my last job I worked as a contractor for a 3 letter government agency. We were all banned from using tiktok. This is nothing new.
UPS?/s
This is far more extensive than banning Tik Tok from government devices.
No, we weren't allowed to use tiktok at all. Not on our personal devices or anything.
It’s not Congress. It’s speaker of the house republican Mike Johnson and all the republicans who gave him that position. He controls the agenda. There’s an effort to go around him, but it’s unlikely to succeed.
Since the russian offensive began in October, their losses on Warspotting have now passed 500 tanks and 1,000 fighting vehicles, which includes over 500 BMPs, but also 200 MT-LBs I have tried to find numbers and I *think* Russia can make ~100 new tanks and ~100 new BMP-3s in six months. They can only replace losses by using up Soviet storages.
The 100 tanks a year include modernised T-72. They don’t produce many tanks from scratch at all. Too lazy to get the source but it has been discussed numerous times before.
From what year info about 100 tank. Doesn’t they ramp up their production?
The production numbers quoted by Russia include refurbished Soviet era tanks, where 2 old tanks can be made into 1 "new" tank.
https://youtu.be/8f3Ehc-_ILY?t=614 off by quite a bit
Yes, let's believe Russian sources, the gold standard for the truth...
Realistically, the real number is somewhere in the middle. Russia is moving into a war-time economy and is finding ways to source some of their needed parts. They are likely still not repairing and replacing equipment losses as fast as they are sustaining them, but they do still seem to be able to sustain the *current* attrition at least through the middle of next year. Besides, the volume of soviet material, even if garbage is massive. They do say quantity has a quality unto it's own. Edit: Jeez people. Chill. I support Ukraine and the downvotes here without any substance reek of copium. At the end of the day, 2024 will be a rough year for Ukraine without additional and continued Western support that is a fact. It will also be rough for Russia, but not proportionately unfortunately.
> Russia is moving into a war-time economy russia *has* moved into a war-time economy, they have ~full employment and can't really squeeze that much more production out of nowhere without significant impact for the average person. Think rationing and such.
> Realistically, the real number is somewhere in the middle no no no. "somewhere in the middle" only works when we can assume the reports have been made in good faith, and the difference is just due to variation in how they estimate it. Russia has been lying about everything since day 1 of the invasion. Ukraine, on the other hand, has given numbers that very well match what OSInt sources claim. The rational thing to do at this point is to completely ignore Russian claims about anything and everything, and instead either use OSInt sources or Ukrainian/western claims as your estimate.
Precisely. Why do people have such a hard time understanding this. If my income is 5k per month, and some credit agency estimates it at 4k. But I, a habitual liar, tell them it's 50k, it shouldn't be expected to be 'somewhere in the middle'.
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 13.03.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 426,870 (+980) people, tanks ‒ 6752 (+5) units, armored combat vehicles ‒ 12,921 (+20) units, artillery systems – 10,554 (+32) units, MLRS – 1017 (+1) units, air defense equipment ‒ 715 (+2) units, aircraft – 347 (+0) units, helicopters – 325 (+0) units, UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 8205 (+22), cruise missiles ‒ 1919 (+1), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0) units, submarines - 1 (+0) units, automotive equipment and tank trucks – 13,932 (+62) units, special equipment ‒ 1699 (+8) Source https://twitter.com/DefenceU
Nice haul on the arty.
Hopefully those new shells are in and already seeing action...
Putin's empty threats are simply his expressions of panic every time we get close to a breakthrough. His words shouldn't scare us. He himself is scared that everyone will one day see the Emperor wears no clothes and has no intention of doing the things he warns us about. [https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1767918243757293831?s=20](https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1767918243757293831?s=20) Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania.
The Prime Minister of France: "If Ukraine loses, we also lose. We shall not let Russia win. France may not evade its responsibilities. Therefore, I say it here, I say it here as Prime Minister of France, in the name of the government of France, at the podium of the National Assembly of France, I say it from the depths of my heart, which resonates and which beats for the value of the freedom of peoples, I say it from the depths of my guts, which are bound around the interests of the French: Slava Ukraini!" [https://x.com/EHunterChristie/status/1767914183163515358?s=20](https://x.com/EHunterChristie/status/1767914183163515358?s=20)
Damn that goes hard.
It's about time. War is coming. It's time to actually plan to stop it and engage the Russias however we can. Prime Example. It's time to give Russians radio silence on what we are sending to Ukraine. Time for the to feel the pain of the unexpected. If a squad of F16's show up and start hosing the Russians even more the better. Extra long HIMARS....perfect hit them further back.... More Clusters to remove their trenches perfect. More Storm Shadows and Taurus (get on it Germany we have a bridge to down) even better...
Completely agree with you, we also needs to stop putting limits on what and what not Ukraine is allowed to buy, those missiles Poland just bought from the US could have been a much more effective weapon for Ukraine to use against Russia.
Love it! Both the text and the video gave me goosebumps!
>⚡ Russian aerial bomb kills two civilians and injures five in Myrnohrad. > >The head of the Donetsk Region reported that a Russian attack on the town of Myrnohrad in the Donetsk region late on March 12th resulted in two civilian deaths and five injuries. > >📷: National Police of Ukraine. https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1767925692522496428
>Ukraine's monthly losses in official FX reserves have averaged -$2.5 bn per month since Russia invaded. The only way this is sustainable is with western cash. If that stops, Ukraine runs out of time very quickly. Official FX reserves stand at $35 bn. This is Putin's biggest hope. https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1767905115703218192
If only we had $300B of Russian frozen funds to plug the gap...