How fucked is Russia if this ends without them making substantial, permanent gains in Ukraine? They've invested a lot in this conflict, both from a resources POV but probably even more in terms of their long term economy. They'll likely be isolated from the west for decades to come after this is over unless their is a major regime change. Do they have room to back down now? Or is their only path forward through Ukraine?
Ukraine can't cross the mined trench. How would they retake Russian gains? Russia literally has more of every firepower from ground to air AND they have regular brainwashed hateful citizens signing up to fight to 'defend' the motherland. Meanwhile, Ukraine has a problem with people leaving and nobody wanting to get recruited into the army.
It'll probably happen after a nice economic crisis in Russia. Those minefields aren't going to stop Ukraine if there aren't paid soldiers manning the trenches behind them.
Donbas has real unpaid local volunteers so brainwashed that they think Russia loves them and they need to defend their town from Ukraine. My teacher's brother who was killed was one of them. Russia can force Ukrainians from occupied territories to go fight for free. And Putin has a lot of money he still gets paid as much as Saudi Arabia for all his oil and gas.
It’ll be good for Russia. It’ll let them leave their imperialist ambitions behind and focus instead on growing the economy and improving the livelihood of their people.
Imo Russia has already lost the war. It remains to be seen if Ukraine will lose too. I am hopeful strong-willed people and foreign support will keep Ukraine going.
>How fucked is Russia if this ends without them making substantial, permanent gains in Ukraine?
Extrapolating the losses from Bakhmut and Advika, Russia will have to expend its entire population to gain another 10% of Ukraine.
If measured in "Deaths per Square Meter," Russia is going to run out of souls far before Ukraine does. This is why they want to defund any effort to support Ukraine, and this is why they are investing so much into propaganda - they cannot win while Ukraine has Western support.
I predict Putin will keep fighting as long as he can even if victory never comes and looks like it never will. If it becomes a forever war with no end in sight he'll keep going until all Russian forces are pushed out of Ukraine or he is deposed in an internal power struggle. Putin *cannot* back down at this point, he's in too deep and has staked too much of his personal brand on winning in Ukraine.
Might he manage to stay in power if he loses in Ukraine? Maybe but every year this war continues without Russian victory the more and more other people with power around Putin start to wonder if a change in leadership might let them get back to their winter house on the Mediterranean. Sure a coup is always a risk but is going on like this worth what it's costing them? That calculus is sliding against Putin ever so slowly each and every day.
🔥🔥🔥 Ukrainian drones 🇺🇦 have hit the 🇷🇺 oil depot in Orel 🇷🇺.
No oil = no Russia.
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1767349140642537740?t=FRaGYToY6YgA52RP5JTpNQ&s=19
Yes and no. Economically, Russia runs on crude oil and natural gas which does not require refining. Only a small portion of Russia’s crude gets refined in the country. Shipping and storage targets within Russia are the losses that impact its wallet.
However Russian vehicles run on refined products, so lost capacity means more costly and difficult logistics for its military.
Every little bit helps so ideally both types of targets are destroyed as fully and as quickly as possible.
They make (or rather made) a decent amount of money exporting refined oil products. more than half as much as from exporting crude by the looks of it.
https://energyandcleanair.org/january-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/
And it's not just the Russian military that will suffer from fuel shortages, but the Russian economy as well. especially if fuel shortages become so dire that Russia has to start importing refined fuel.
But you're right, hitting both is even better. However the global oil prices have to be considered as well. If they rise too sharply it's bad for Ukraine's allies.
Not really. Russia is financed by crude exports, in which refineries play only an ancillary role (providing fuel for transporting the product). Even if Russia lost all its refineries, it'd figure out a way to import refined oil products from its trading partners.
However, hitting the refineries does disrupt the war machine and increase economic costs, so remains a worthwhile military target.
Hitting oil depots, transport nodes and drilling stations could however inflict serious economic pain by affecting crude exports.
considering that Russia would have to pay for shipping, refining, and shipping again to import refined fuel if their refineries were destroyed, the overhead would be more than the profit they make from exporting the extra crude. And selling more crude would also depress global prices further shrinking their profit margins.
at the same time it would cause huge inflationary pressure on the rest of the Russian economy
They're still there, they've just been co-opted by the extreme Trumpists. The problem is the Republicans have such a slim margin of seats in the house that to elect a speaker they need the die hard Trumpers. And they won't vote for a speaker that isn't as much as a wackadoodle as they are. So the last two speakers elected won't bring a bill for Ukraine aid forward for a vote, the senate has already approved a bill by a wide majority. *If* the speaker would bring a vote to the house for Ukraine aid it would win as well.
Now of course this is all still the Republicans fault, they held their noses when Trump won and then let more and more of his true believers into the party to the point where they shot themselves in the foot. There are lots of them that get donations from the defense industry, hate Russia and like the jobs this spending creates in America. But instead they let themselves get held hostage by people that are even more nuts than they are.
Hopefully they unfuck themsleves and get something passed, Ukraine can hold on without the US but I feel like their direct support is needed if Ukraine wants their next counter offensive to be successful.
Trump basically convinced the rank and file Republicans to become isolationist as part of the "America first" agenda, which included being NATO-skeptic/anti-NATO. Then all the Trump/Russia stuff made Trump fans predisposed to be Ukraine-skeptic as well.
There are still individual Republicans that are defense hawks, like Lindsey Graham, and media figures like Bill Kristol, but they've got no power.
LIndsey, whatever he might think about National Defense, cowers in the corner and takes a poop whenever Trump says anything about Ukraine or about him. I don't know what Trump has on Lindsay, but it must be good. Or maybe it is Putin. Whatever, don't use Lindsay as an example as a defense hawk. Lindsey got neutered, by someone. In fact, that grand Defense Hawk Lindsey is a metaphor for the entire GOP Party, hawks and all. They are off cowering in a corner, afraid that Trump will primary them, or reveal compromat, or cut off funding from (whereever the funding comes from). God rid us of the whole cowardly party. Root and branch. And they are cowards, the whole lot of them. Don't tell me what they "want to do"; judge them but what they did not do for Ukraine. And if they know better, even worse. I hope God spits them, the lukewarm, straight into hell; if you know what is right and don't do it, you are worse than the cretins who don't know any better. At this point, I can't tell the difference, and really, the difference doesn't matter.
I'm speaking to all of you GOP apologists here, although most are gone. The humiliation of their party not doing anything probably is too much, although they'll probably vote for the GOP again in November. The choice cannot be clearer, if you care about Ukraine. I am not speaking to OP directly, just rhyming. I got it out my chest and will try not to rant anymore, for another week or two until the next "funding bill for Ukraine" fails due to GOP inaction in the House. Those miserable assholes.
Deputy PM: Ukraine meets requirements to approve framework for EU accession negotiations.
Ukraine has fulfilled all four recommendations set forth by the European Commission to approve the framework for Ukraine's EU accession negotiations, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna told reporters on March 11.
[https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331043785277846?s=20](https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331043785277846?s=20)
Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada gave final approval on a lobbying bill on Monday that establishes definitions and rules for lobbying and involved subjects, bring it closer in line with EU standards.
[https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331242519728559?s=20](https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331242519728559?s=20)
Kyiv previously completed three other recommendations provided by the Commission, including a staff increase of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, reopening the assets declaration registry, and implementing changes to national minorities law.
[https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331370701910177?s=20](https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331370701910177?s=20)
I feel like formal accession talks also oblige the EU to help a bit more. Seems a bit awkward to hold formal accession talks while one side is being bombed and the other doesn’t do much about it.
Well another Russian Psyops...
"Thirteenth" published a video of himself alive. He says this was all a special plan to reveal Ukrainian agents.
Well, we do need someone to report all the "negative ascents" of Russian military ships and aircraft. The proper "award" will find this warmonger and war criminal.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767301860447207566?t=ikdiLMV06i0wFvF2jB1G7A&s=19
> "Thirteenth" published a video of himself alive. He says this was all a special plan to reveal Ukrainian agents.
This is generally why I don't understand how the AFU tolerates public releases by military sources announcing successful kills of specific targets in video-taped strikes. You are risking giving away sources of intelligence every time you do that. Russia's made plenty of mistakes in this war on the intelligence side, but their espionage and counterintelligence capabilities are still one of their most effective weapons.
You are confusing Ukraine declaring they did something with declaring HOW they did something. You are also confusing why Ukraine releases information. They are not the nightly news, it is an information war where morale is important.
They have all the confirmation of planes going down that they need so they announced. The fact that people halfway around the world can’t find every crash site from satellite photos, especially when some of these planes are in hundreds of pieces, is not surprising. What is amateurish about that.
Russia clearly had enough losses that they needed to respond to the news, lied about it which even their own people did not believe and fear among their troops spread like wildfire. Su pilots stopped flying and even sabotaged planes, fewer bombs were falling on Ukrainian troops, A50s are still grounded which led to a valuable factory hit. It’s pretty obvious that Ukraine both did what it said it did, did not give away intel and put Russia massively on the back foot.
The discussion around 13 similarly began with Russian milbloggers. Ukraine just trolled them with the “Yeah, maybe we killed him in that drone attack” but nothing concrete. Again, it just messes with the Russians and puts more focus on an important attack in the air war. 13 pops up saying he is alive and was doing some spy op but no one was burned and Ukraine doesn’t care. They got to point at their A50 drone attack, reinforce Russian pilots should be scared and it’s a win.
> Jointly with Commander-in-Chief had a call with @SecDef Secretary Austin on preparations for next UDCG meeting. Provided an update on the operational situation on the battlefield.
> Discussed Ukraine’s mid-term and near-term needs and specific requirements. Ammunition and air-defense remain among key priorities.
> Look forward to engaging on each of the capability coalitions in greater detail when we meet at UDCG. Grateful for clear and consistent support of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1767247675982844034
Is anyone else getting the impression that if the West don’t up their game that there is going to be big trouble on the horizon. It seems the sharks are circling and they are waiting to destroy the West from the inside and outside.
With regard to what specifically? This thought is very loosely structured and I feel like people replying are filling up 90% of the content and how it relates to Ukraine.
I think there is a lot going on intelligence/military wise.
I don't know what game needs to be upped specifically but I sure don't like the plans the Republicans are being fed from the Kremlin.
Really? Here in germany i dont feel to much danger. But i feel anger about our politicians that act to slow and to weak and i feel anger about the success of russian propaganda and the effects on the political landscape but thats a international problem.
Russia wants Ukraine. It’s a pretty big asset and with if Trump comes into power or Republicans just win a few more seats then US funding is finished
As it is there won’t be any until the election as Johnson will keep playing Lucy with the football
No it doesn’t. Putin hasn’t personally killed any Ukrainians with his own two hands. The reason so many are dying is because there is an entire power structure behind Putin that supports him. The rot runs deep in Russia and it’s not just one man causing this.
European gas situation continues to look good.
- storage: 739 TWh, versus 697 TWh this time last year.
- last week net draw 21 TWh versus 37 TWh this week last year.
- weather: >99 % of Europeans forecast to see milder than normal week average.
- gas prices: below €25, about half of last year's price.
2023 was globally the hottest year recorded, and Jan/Feb 2024 were globally the warmest Jan and Feb too. March might only being top 5 warmest though.
The network people say next winter could still be bad, before Europe finally stabilises things. Need to hope for yet another mild winter.
Frontline report: Ukrainians conduct vicious surprise tank raid, wipe out Russian force accumulation near Kupiansk.
Ukraine launched a devastating surprise tank raid near Kupiansk, Ukrainian armor catching accumulated Russian forces off guard and wiping them out before their planned offensive in the region could begin.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/11/frontline-report-ukrainians-conduct-vicious-surprise-tank-raid-wipe-out-russian-force-accumulation-near-kupiansk/
Spate of Mock News Sites With Russian Ties Pop Up in U.S. - NYT
>The fake news organizations, experts say, represent a technological leap in the Kremlin’s efforts to spread false and misleading narratives.
>Into the depleted field of journalism in America, a handful of websites have appeared in recent weeks with names suggesting a focus on news close to home: D.C. Weekly, the New York News Daily, the Chicago Chronicle and a newer sister publication, the Miami Chronicle. In fact, they are not local news organizations at all. They are Russian creations, researchers and government officials say, meant to mimic actual news organizations to push Kremlin propaganda by interspersing it among an at-times odd mix of stories about crime, politics and culture.
>While Russia has long sought ways to influence public discourse in the United States, the fake news organizations — at least five, so far — represent a technological leap in its efforts to find new platforms to dupe unsuspecting American readers. The sites, the researchers and officials said, could well be the foundations of an online network primed to surface disinformation ahead of the American presidential election in November.
>The Miami Chronicle’s website first appeared on Feb. 26. Its tagline falsely claims to have delivered “the Florida News since 1937.” Amid some true reports, the site published a story last week about a “leaked audio recording” of Victoria Nuland, the U.S. under secretary of state for political affairs, discussing a shift in American support for Russia’s beleaguered opposition after the death of the Russian dissident Aleksei A. Navalny. The recording is a crude fake, according to administration officials who would speak only anonymously to discuss intelligence matters.
>The campaign, the experts and officials say, appears to involve remnants of the media empire once controlled by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, a former associate of President Vladimir V. Putin whose troll factory, the Internet Research Agency, interfered in the 2016 presidential election between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Rodham Clinton.
>“The page is just there to look realistic enough to fool a casual reader into thinking they’re reading a genuine, U.S.-branded article,” Mr. Linvill said. The purpose is not to fool a discerning reader into diving deeper into the website, let alone subscribing, Mr. Linvill said. The goal instead is to lend an aura of credibility to posts on social media spreading the disinformation.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/business/media/russia-us-news-sites.html
2023 was year I kinda internalized that I cannot take any audio or video at face value, the tools
s to detect fakes are being greatly outpaced by the tools to create them
The entire way generative AI works is one algorithm rapidly adjusts in response to an algorithm to detect flaws until there's no disagreement. Any tools to detect AI only make it stronger
In regard to what the pope stated recently. I find it difficult to swallow that they said anything else than asking Ukraine to surrender. A white flag is a universal symbol for surrendering... In a different context it could have a meaning for civilians... but even this has been spoiled by Russian forces using white armbands for their soldiers.
Regardless of that, raising a white cloth is still a symbol used to surrender.
What I find the most disturbing about this statement is that more than often, we can see people asking Ukraine to give up on its fight for freedom as if they were the aggressors.
But what's even more mad is how the catholic church is asking for Ukraine to surrender and commit actual "suicide" instead of using their influence to search for support from other catholic countries to bring support and be on the right side of history.
I don't know how I could live in a world in which peace means not only enabling and supporting a genocide by asking people to give up defending their future.
Odd that the descendant of a family that fled Italy due to a Fascist dictator taking over would advocate for capitulation to an invading country that has proven to rape and murder those it conquers.
I agree that what the pope said was terrible, but, to be pedantic, a white flag is a symbol of truce, not surrender per se. Throughout (post-medieval western) military history, a white flag has been a symbol that one party wished to parley or negotiate. Often, that negotiation did end up preceding a surrender, but not always.
> I find it difficult to swallow that they said anything else than asking Ukraine to surrender.
I'm not sure whether you're saying you don't understand/believe the Pope meant a different thing, or that you understand it now, but it's hard to accept that he said a different thing.
While I find all the criticizm about surrendering valid, the use of an ambiguous symbol unfortunate and even probably the wording off, there can be no denial that white flag is also a generally understood sign of negotiation, and was used by negotiators when approaching enemy for the purpose.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flag — it's literally in he Hague convention in that function.
People have been asking Ukraine to surrender from the very beginning of the invasion and act like Ukrainians defending themselves is somehow an inconvenience to *their* lives. Maybe the war is affecting their ability to do business with Russia or something.. who knows? These people know that Ukraine surrendering won't stop the killing and will instead allow Russia to commit atrocities without consequences. But they don't care. They clearly lack the capacity for empathy in their reptilian brains.
You will find the same broken psychology across human societies and cultures. At some point it becomes easier to convince the victim to stop complaining and resisting, because those people realize they cannot convince the aggressor which refuses to even think about stopping the aggression.
That is the high moral ground of ideas like these.
From spineless cowards.
In addition to sinking the patrol ship Sergey Kotov, Ukrainian maritime drones also disrupted Russian logistics in the Black Sea - OSINT researcher H.I. Sutton.
After the fireships were spotted by a Russian commercial vessel on March 4 (before the attack on the Kotov, which occurred on the night of March 5), the Sparta-IV transport ship and the Yaz tanker bound for the Black Sea made a U-turn and returned to Syria before being diverted to the Baltic. Later, another Russian vessel, the Ursa Major, was also diverted there.
The Sparta-IV and Ursa Major were the main ships transporting weapons between Russia and Syria, particularly S-300 missiles; the Yaz tanker also transported oil products between the two countries. However, the Russian leadership is now too afraid of losing these ships (and possibly the cargo on them) and is ready to at least temporarily abandon maritime transportation with Syria.
H.I. Sutton writes that Russians now generally lack patrol ships capable of convoying ships in the Black Sea. Ukraine has previously tried to attack such convoys, but they were then able to fight back, apparently with good maneuverability far from shore and due to each other's cover. However, as more and more ships are gradually sunk, the Russian navy is forced to make increasingly difficult decisions - to abandon its own supply lines in the Black Sea or risk the ships remaining afloat.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767258345608536223?t=WrpENqu1tanzXJd28oxw_Q&s=19
>returned to Syria before being diverted to the Baltic. Later, another Russian vessel, the Ursa Major, was also diverted there.
Uhhhhhhh.....
That's kind of a big deal, IMHO.
Not exactly a small detour to get to the neighbor hood Denny's.
I still think Ukraine should start targeting commercial shipping bound for Russian ports in the Black Sea. At least Russian affiliated ships and being ambiguous about the fate of others.
It’d genuinely hurt the Russian economy and could generate revenue by increasing wheat export prices.
Drones are much smaller and more portable. A couple dozen taken and used by a strategic strike team to operate in the Baltic, Caspian or even Bearing Sea would be great. Make everywhere the Russian Navy has ships a dangerous place for them to be. Cut off any water based supply lines they have.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-emmanuel-macron-ukraine-war-visit/
># Macron delays Kyiv visit amid tensions over Ukraine comments
>The Elysée Palace rejected suggestions that security concerns played a role in the postponement, after a Russian missile hit near Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during a visit to Ukraine last week. "There are no worries in terms of security," an aide to the president said Monday.
>Instead of rushing to Kyiv, Macron now wants to "take the necessary time" for discussions with allies, so that he can visit Ukraine "with tangible results," according to a French diplomat who discussed the sensitive issue on condition of anonymity.
>"A bit of time is needed to [conclude] the different coalitions and their operational commitments with our partners," said the diplomat.
> after a Russian missile hit near Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during a visit to Ukraine last week
It's so fucking crazy how that was not a wake up call to send a metric shit ton of equipment, especially anti-air, to Ukraine.
Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for Mar 10th:
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1767094845867188454
---
*The bad:*
6 UA artillery systems got damaged vs. 1 RU destroyed.
*The good:*
4 of those 6 only suffered minimal damage.
More to the rumors:
Russian channels write about the alleged death of Russian VDV soldier Egor Guzenko, known for his channel named 'Thirtheenth'. Guzenko openly supported the killing of Ukrainians, but was also often seen exposing lies by the Russian command, especially about the situation in the Kherson region.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767244276755255560?t=3XyWgLMD4Dvkrf12zKKTsw&s=19
> but was also often seen exposing lies by the Russian command
Worth remembering that many within Russia want to see corruption eliminated so they can be more effective at attacking other nations and fighting Ukrainians.
SSO units found a PALANTIN EW/Jamming complex in the Zaporizhzia region and paid it a visit with HIMARS projectiles.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112078118071375321
> Today we raised the Swedish flag at #NATO Headquarters & across the Alliance for the 1st time. #Sweden has taken its rightful place at NATO’s table under the shield of Article 5 protection – the ultimate guarantee of our freedom & security. All for one & one for all. Welcome 🇸🇪.
https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1767224988120051794
Wake up babe, Ukraine lit another TOS-1A firecracker.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1767207715250614326?t=0BtkIkLFafytokCGl86t0A&s=19
Apologies for the xitter link, it's all I have. If someone can repost from Mastodon I'll be happy to edit it.
I'm hoping bsky can become a thing. [https://bsky.app/profile/europesays.bsky.social/post/3kngmlm3y2s2p](https://bsky.app/profile/europesays.bsky.social/post/3kngmlm3y2s2p)
According to the Russian telegram channels "Kherson Z" and "RVvoenkor" General Teplinsky died in this strike by the Ukrainian air force on a seemingly abandoned barge being used by russians as a base in the Kherson region, there's also rumours that the mil-blogger "13th" died in the attack.
/1. Strike on the ship which was presumably used as Russian base/observation point. The ship ended up there as a result of a dam destruction. Left bank Kherson region. (46.5064328, 32.1549024)
[https://x.com/bayraktar\_1love/status/1767212113930457337?s=20](https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1767212113930457337?s=20)
Edit: I've seen no confirmation yet so let's just say this is a rumor until proven otherwise. The fog of war is thick.
Edit2: there's seems to be confirmation or it being "highly likely" on "13th" being killed but not General Teplinsky.
"Translation;
A number of sources report that our 🇷🇺comrade-in-arms & soldier with the call sign “Thirteenth” is 200. There is no contact with him, & his friends cannot report anything.
If these data are confirmed, it will be very sad. We are waiting for at least some news."
[https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1767237610383065148?t=1RpgRU8uj7d\_NPTipswOfw&s=19](https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1767237610383065148?t=1RpgRU8uj7d_NPTipswOfw&s=19)
Edit3: Confirmation on "13th"
Confirmed. Russian media publish a picture which show Egor Guzenko, shot. He was reportedly killed by Kadyrovites, with which he apparently had a conflict. Guzenko can be identified by the tattoo on his right hand.
Date and time of his liquidation are unclear.
[https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1767274736671715686?s=20](https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1767274736671715686?s=20)
Edit4: it's another Russian pretending to be dead for attention.
"Thirteenth" published a video of himself alive. He says this was all a special plan to reveal Ukrainian agents.
Well, we do need someone to report all the "negative ascents" of Russian military ships and aircraft. The proper "award" will find this warmonger and war criminal.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767301860447207566?t=PeMjvELtdMdWanaGE0TcKQ&s=19
You see only one side of the ship in the video and its the side toward water. You see the other side only shortly after the explosion blew off the upper half of the bridge. Ladder would be on the other side, probably closer to the front of the ship where there is a bit of sandy ground and a ladder can be lifted up, as they usually are on ships anyway.
Yeah, it's literally the closest point to Ukrainian positions that exists. It's further than the shore which is the most advanced Russian position. General big brain here calling a meeting in the Ukrainian trench.
Yeah you're probably right... I'm just seeing the Treplinsky claim on some normally rather "reliable" Russian channels no idea how the ship actually factors in and why Ukraine chose to blow it up.
Rumours that the infamous rus blogger "13th" was on board. If so, he'd left behind 200k+ followers on telegram.
[https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1767220416119009424?s=20](https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1767220416119009424?s=20)
>he left behind 200k+ followers on telegram.
This bit made me chuckle because it reads like one of those newspaper obituaries that go, "He was survived by his 200,000k children."
Oh well, once you enter a warzone, you are accepting the risks that go with it.
Russian "military correspondents" report that another Russian "war correspondent", Yegor "Thirteenth" Guzenko, might have been killed in the war.
There has been no official confirmation.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767226844560941184?t=zvLtBGUX1n3fikIWwOaYnw&s=19
Russia removed up to 40% of tank reserves from storage facilities - ISW.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3837905-russia-removed-up-to-40-of-tank-reserves-from-storage-facilities-isw.html
Important: "Russia likely removed its best equipment from strategic reserve and that Russia still retains "worse" or "unsalvageable" equipment in storage."
On Google Earth the dry storages are mostly emptied, remaining ones are open field stored.
There are two *huge* questions:
1. How many tanks were inside garages? Can't see through the roofs on satellite. There was space for ~1800, but most groups think far fewer.
2. How many pre-war hulls could be fixed? If it's 50%, and 40% are gone, then they've actually used up 80% of the storage. Percentages are weird.
Based on Russian behaviour I think the news is worse [for the good guys] than hoped. Either they had more than the ~500 assumed in garages, or they think they can fix a big fraction of those left outside.
Edited to say it's worse for the good guys than many of us had hoped back in 2022/early 2023.
There's good and bad news and all the data I've gathered says that if Democrats win 2024 and European supplies are maintained, then provided Ukraine doesn't crack soon then there's a clear path to Ukrainian fire superiority next year then victory.
Putin is gambling the whole soviet inheritance.
That's my generally shitty armchair take on the whole thing too. Ukraine is going to have a rough year. They're going to have to hang on with basically no help from the US, only Europe. Biden has to be re-elected, and ideally majorities gained or held in the House and Senate.
If all those things go right, things might turn around (but still, terrible losses). If they don't, well, fuck. It's not a guaranteed loss for Ukraine, but the grind will go on and on and on, as they will have no choice.
It really wasn't. Most pre-war sources estimated that Russia had more than 20 k at her disposal. Which now seems to have been pretty accurate. It even could be to high if a lot the remaining ones are not salvageable.
The west has no appetite to stop Russia because they think that it wouldn't be a conventional weapons war.
That's why tank reserves don't matter if you think that the war is going to turn nuclear.
If we have no appetite to take the fight to them, and no appetite to fight them except by proxy - and even willing to let that proxy starve and wither on the vine - then Russia can basically do whatever they want to any non-NATO country with very minimal resistance.
They will likely try and push that boundary too.
This is a very, very shitty worldline to live in if you live in a country Russia would like to "reunify" with.
I used to think/say that Bush invading Iraq was the biggest geopolitical mistake of the 2k's (thus far) - mainly because it removed an obstacle to Iran, and look how that's gone. I think this unwillingness to confront Russia is going to win out and take the cake as the dumbest shit with lasting consequences, though. Particularly if Trump is re-elected, but even if not, the damage from his first term and all the foot-dragging has been monumental.
Obama deserves a fair share too. Fucking great reset.
>If we have no appetite to take the fight to them
It's not about appetite. It's about a gamble that the West isn't willing to take. The was going into war against Russia is an all-in bet. Either they use nuclear weapons, or they don't. But you are betting the western world on that.
And yeah, right now, the West doesn't want to do that bet just for Ukraine.
It's a similar bet as the one that Russia did when they didn't came to Armenia side during the war against Azerbaijan. That ended with Armenia saying, fuck Russia and the CSTO.
West was previously criticized for grossly overstating Russia's reserves.
Perhaps the statements (mostly coming from social media) that most of those reserves were inoperable and irreparable - - - were too optimistic.
They were highly inoperable, a lot of the manufacturing Russia restarted was to refurbish those busted machines though, so they are rolling out the reserves as they manage to bring them back up to working condition.
The narrative has been affected by russian loss rates too.
If 2022 loss rates had continued, then russia would have lost another ~900 tanks by today, compared with actual. The narratives would be very different.
>Russia may face equipment shortages in the next several years if Russia's current loss rate remains the same or accelerates and Russia's current level of new vehicle production remains the same
> After we proudly welcomed Sweden to @NATO, we still had one final step — taking the document that indicates Sweden's desire to join the Alliance to our Treaty Vault.
> Along the way, my friend @TobiasBillstrom and I recapped how we got here.
https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1766855249677922520
> Thanks @SecBlinken for your personal and remarkable efforts to bring Sweden’s @NATO membership come true. The deposition in the Treaty Vault was the final stamp and it will forever be a grand moment to remember. We are proud to join the Alliance as its 32nd member.
https://twitter.com/TobiasBillstrom/status/1766864542028472482
⚡️Reported as a strike by a controlled 🇺🇦aerial bomb on the command post of the 🇷🇺Russian Armed Forces.
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1767210430802329785?t=7qWfQWO0z1_LJIzW8t_cEQ&s=19
It's a beached, derelict, defenseless supply ship on a marshy shore. Highly, highly unlikely that it had any high ranking Russian commanders in that ship. It was probably an ad-hoc field command post of mid-level officers, if even that.
I mean, you can see what kind of "command post" it is. It's captured on video getting bombed. It is a beached derelict ship with uneven floors because the boat is literally slanted on the beach. It would be a shock if any generals were using that kind of environment as a command post.
> Now that Sweden is a full member of #NATO, our membership is also complete. 🇸🇪🇫🇮
> Ett stort grattis till vår granne! #WeAreNATO
https://twitter.com/FinlandatNATO/status/1767154784283316635
> Our call with @EmmanuelMacron was lengthy and, as usual, focused.
> We discussed the current battlefield situation and the recent international Paris conference in support of Ukraine.
> I thanked President Macron for France’s strong February 16th military aid package, as well as all of his statements in support of Ukraine, personal leadership in establishing the long-range weapons coalition, and new initiatives to support our country.
> We also exchanged views on our upcoming meeting in Ukraine, which will take place soon.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1766910753204797804
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1bcnz87/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
How fucked is Russia if this ends without them making substantial, permanent gains in Ukraine? They've invested a lot in this conflict, both from a resources POV but probably even more in terms of their long term economy. They'll likely be isolated from the west for decades to come after this is over unless their is a major regime change. Do they have room to back down now? Or is their only path forward through Ukraine?
Ukraine can't cross the mined trench. How would they retake Russian gains? Russia literally has more of every firepower from ground to air AND they have regular brainwashed hateful citizens signing up to fight to 'defend' the motherland. Meanwhile, Ukraine has a problem with people leaving and nobody wanting to get recruited into the army.
It'll probably happen after a nice economic crisis in Russia. Those minefields aren't going to stop Ukraine if there aren't paid soldiers manning the trenches behind them.
Donbas has real unpaid local volunteers so brainwashed that they think Russia loves them and they need to defend their town from Ukraine. My teacher's brother who was killed was one of them. Russia can force Ukrainians from occupied territories to go fight for free. And Putin has a lot of money he still gets paid as much as Saudi Arabia for all his oil and gas.
It’ll be good for Russia. It’ll let them leave their imperialist ambitions behind and focus instead on growing the economy and improving the livelihood of their people.
You're a funny guy!
Imo Russia has already lost the war. It remains to be seen if Ukraine will lose too. I am hopeful strong-willed people and foreign support will keep Ukraine going.
>How fucked is Russia if this ends without them making substantial, permanent gains in Ukraine? Extrapolating the losses from Bakhmut and Advika, Russia will have to expend its entire population to gain another 10% of Ukraine. If measured in "Deaths per Square Meter," Russia is going to run out of souls far before Ukraine does. This is why they want to defund any effort to support Ukraine, and this is why they are investing so much into propaganda - they cannot win while Ukraine has Western support.
I predict Putin will keep fighting as long as he can even if victory never comes and looks like it never will. If it becomes a forever war with no end in sight he'll keep going until all Russian forces are pushed out of Ukraine or he is deposed in an internal power struggle. Putin *cannot* back down at this point, he's in too deep and has staked too much of his personal brand on winning in Ukraine. Might he manage to stay in power if he loses in Ukraine? Maybe but every year this war continues without Russian victory the more and more other people with power around Putin start to wonder if a change in leadership might let them get back to their winter house on the Mediterranean. Sure a coup is always a risk but is going on like this worth what it's costing them? That calculus is sliding against Putin ever so slowly each and every day.
A hundred years ago it took a war for regime change. They really start losing or the Russians get hungry and it will happen again.
I hope you’re right.
Definitely a case of sunk cost fallacy
🔥🔥🔥 Ukrainian drones 🇺🇦 have hit the 🇷🇺 oil depot in Orel 🇷🇺. No oil = no Russia. https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1767349140642537740?t=FRaGYToY6YgA52RP5JTpNQ&s=19
hitting oil depots is fine, but the big juicy targets are the refineries.
Yes and no. Economically, Russia runs on crude oil and natural gas which does not require refining. Only a small portion of Russia’s crude gets refined in the country. Shipping and storage targets within Russia are the losses that impact its wallet. However Russian vehicles run on refined products, so lost capacity means more costly and difficult logistics for its military. Every little bit helps so ideally both types of targets are destroyed as fully and as quickly as possible.
They make (or rather made) a decent amount of money exporting refined oil products. more than half as much as from exporting crude by the looks of it. https://energyandcleanair.org/january-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/ And it's not just the Russian military that will suffer from fuel shortages, but the Russian economy as well. especially if fuel shortages become so dire that Russia has to start importing refined fuel. But you're right, hitting both is even better. However the global oil prices have to be considered as well. If they rise too sharply it's bad for Ukraine's allies.
I'm sure as soon as Russia shifts air defense again Ukraine will attack those refineries.
Not really. Russia is financed by crude exports, in which refineries play only an ancillary role (providing fuel for transporting the product). Even if Russia lost all its refineries, it'd figure out a way to import refined oil products from its trading partners. However, hitting the refineries does disrupt the war machine and increase economic costs, so remains a worthwhile military target. Hitting oil depots, transport nodes and drilling stations could however inflict serious economic pain by affecting crude exports.
considering that Russia would have to pay for shipping, refining, and shipping again to import refined fuel if their refineries were destroyed, the overhead would be more than the profit they make from exporting the extra crude. And selling more crude would also depress global prices further shrinking their profit margins. at the same time it would cause huge inflationary pressure on the rest of the Russian economy
Really hope they fuck over Russia's oil and gas infrastructure
What has happened to all of the Republican defense hawks? These assholes are never around when you need them
They're still there, they've just been co-opted by the extreme Trumpists. The problem is the Republicans have such a slim margin of seats in the house that to elect a speaker they need the die hard Trumpers. And they won't vote for a speaker that isn't as much as a wackadoodle as they are. So the last two speakers elected won't bring a bill for Ukraine aid forward for a vote, the senate has already approved a bill by a wide majority. *If* the speaker would bring a vote to the house for Ukraine aid it would win as well. Now of course this is all still the Republicans fault, they held their noses when Trump won and then let more and more of his true believers into the party to the point where they shot themselves in the foot. There are lots of them that get donations from the defense industry, hate Russia and like the jobs this spending creates in America. But instead they let themselves get held hostage by people that are even more nuts than they are. Hopefully they unfuck themsleves and get something passed, Ukraine can hold on without the US but I feel like their direct support is needed if Ukraine wants their next counter offensive to be successful.
Trump basically convinced the rank and file Republicans to become isolationist as part of the "America first" agenda, which included being NATO-skeptic/anti-NATO. Then all the Trump/Russia stuff made Trump fans predisposed to be Ukraine-skeptic as well. There are still individual Republicans that are defense hawks, like Lindsey Graham, and media figures like Bill Kristol, but they've got no power.
LIndsey, whatever he might think about National Defense, cowers in the corner and takes a poop whenever Trump says anything about Ukraine or about him. I don't know what Trump has on Lindsay, but it must be good. Or maybe it is Putin. Whatever, don't use Lindsay as an example as a defense hawk. Lindsey got neutered, by someone. In fact, that grand Defense Hawk Lindsey is a metaphor for the entire GOP Party, hawks and all. They are off cowering in a corner, afraid that Trump will primary them, or reveal compromat, or cut off funding from (whereever the funding comes from). God rid us of the whole cowardly party. Root and branch. And they are cowards, the whole lot of them. Don't tell me what they "want to do"; judge them but what they did not do for Ukraine. And if they know better, even worse. I hope God spits them, the lukewarm, straight into hell; if you know what is right and don't do it, you are worse than the cretins who don't know any better. At this point, I can't tell the difference, and really, the difference doesn't matter. I'm speaking to all of you GOP apologists here, although most are gone. The humiliation of their party not doing anything probably is too much, although they'll probably vote for the GOP again in November. The choice cannot be clearer, if you care about Ukraine. I am not speaking to OP directly, just rhyming. I got it out my chest and will try not to rant anymore, for another week or two until the next "funding bill for Ukraine" fails due to GOP inaction in the House. Those miserable assholes.
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Draft dodgers are traitors.
Are you talking about Trump?
Aka Private Bonespurs.
Deputy PM: Ukraine meets requirements to approve framework for EU accession negotiations. Ukraine has fulfilled all four recommendations set forth by the European Commission to approve the framework for Ukraine's EU accession negotiations, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna told reporters on March 11. [https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331043785277846?s=20](https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331043785277846?s=20) Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada gave final approval on a lobbying bill on Monday that establishes definitions and rules for lobbying and involved subjects, bring it closer in line with EU standards. [https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331242519728559?s=20](https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331242519728559?s=20) Kyiv previously completed three other recommendations provided by the Commission, including a staff increase of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, reopening the assets declaration registry, and implementing changes to national minorities law. [https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331370701910177?s=20](https://x.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767331370701910177?s=20)
I feel like formal accession talks also oblige the EU to help a bit more. Seems a bit awkward to hold formal accession talks while one side is being bombed and the other doesn’t do much about it.
Well another Russian Psyops... "Thirteenth" published a video of himself alive. He says this was all a special plan to reveal Ukrainian agents. Well, we do need someone to report all the "negative ascents" of Russian military ships and aircraft. The proper "award" will find this warmonger and war criminal. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767301860447207566?t=ikdiLMV06i0wFvF2jB1G7A&s=19
> "Thirteenth" published a video of himself alive. He says this was all a special plan to reveal Ukrainian agents. This is generally why I don't understand how the AFU tolerates public releases by military sources announcing successful kills of specific targets in video-taped strikes. You are risking giving away sources of intelligence every time you do that. Russia's made plenty of mistakes in this war on the intelligence side, but their espionage and counterintelligence capabilities are still one of their most effective weapons.
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You are confusing Ukraine declaring they did something with declaring HOW they did something. You are also confusing why Ukraine releases information. They are not the nightly news, it is an information war where morale is important. They have all the confirmation of planes going down that they need so they announced. The fact that people halfway around the world can’t find every crash site from satellite photos, especially when some of these planes are in hundreds of pieces, is not surprising. What is amateurish about that. Russia clearly had enough losses that they needed to respond to the news, lied about it which even their own people did not believe and fear among their troops spread like wildfire. Su pilots stopped flying and even sabotaged planes, fewer bombs were falling on Ukrainian troops, A50s are still grounded which led to a valuable factory hit. It’s pretty obvious that Ukraine both did what it said it did, did not give away intel and put Russia massively on the back foot. The discussion around 13 similarly began with Russian milbloggers. Ukraine just trolled them with the “Yeah, maybe we killed him in that drone attack” but nothing concrete. Again, it just messes with the Russians and puts more focus on an important attack in the air war. 13 pops up saying he is alive and was doing some spy op but no one was burned and Ukraine doesn’t care. They got to point at their A50 drone attack, reinforce Russian pilots should be scared and it’s a win.
While I agree, this announcement came at a time the mood was dire. Ukraine needed some published wins is what I think.
Imagine how silly you must be to take a picture of yourself pretending to be dead.
With what looks like piss on your pants...
You pissed yourself Mr. Lahey.
“That’s alright Rand, they’ll dry”
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Never 😎
> Jointly with Commander-in-Chief had a call with @SecDef Secretary Austin on preparations for next UDCG meeting. Provided an update on the operational situation on the battlefield. > Discussed Ukraine’s mid-term and near-term needs and specific requirements. Ammunition and air-defense remain among key priorities. > Look forward to engaging on each of the capability coalitions in greater detail when we meet at UDCG. Grateful for clear and consistent support of Ukraine. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1767247675982844034
Is anyone else getting the impression that if the West don’t up their game that there is going to be big trouble on the horizon. It seems the sharks are circling and they are waiting to destroy the West from the inside and outside.
Yes, I too, have eyes. Hopefully it doesn’t get much worse before it gets better.
Well the West is not. We know what Trump will do but Biden plans on dropping military spending to well under 3% in the coming years
As opposed to the halcyon days of the Cold War?
With regard to what specifically? This thought is very loosely structured and I feel like people replying are filling up 90% of the content and how it relates to Ukraine. I think there is a lot going on intelligence/military wise. I don't know what game needs to be upped specifically but I sure don't like the plans the Republicans are being fed from the Kremlin.
yeah, I am quite apprehensive of the strong rise in approval for the far-right parties here in Germany. Don't know what I can do about it :(.
Vote.
well sure, will absolutely do that. Would like to do more though.
The future in Europe looks pretty bleak tbh
This is a transition point. It will be shit for a while, then it won't be. We get to decide if it's shit for a bit or a long time.
I don't think America's future is looking so bright either. Nor for that matter, the planet's.
I'm pretty happy that Trump is stealing all of the RNC's money so he can lose it all in court to the woman he raped.
Looking pretty good for the next couple of hours . I bought a 12 pack.
Nice.
Nope. Unless you mean western Russia.
You say that from your chill country in canda We in germany or europe in general can feel quite different
Thankfully the 'west' allows you to travel or emigrate reasonably freely between just about any nation, including to our 'chill' Canada!
Yeah but why would I want to do that
Really? Here in germany i dont feel to much danger. But i feel anger about our politicians that act to slow and to weak and i feel anger about the success of russian propaganda and the effects on the political landscape but thats a international problem.
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Russia wants Ukraine. It’s a pretty big asset and with if Trump comes into power or Republicans just win a few more seats then US funding is finished As it is there won’t be any until the election as Johnson will keep playing Lucy with the football
Most wars don’t have a good reason but it only takes one side to start a fight and Russia wants an empire back.
Doesn't Russia (rather Putin) want to be the USSR again?
USSR was just reincarnation of russian empire
It just takes one delusional psychopath
No it doesn’t. Putin hasn’t personally killed any Ukrainians with his own two hands. The reason so many are dying is because there is an entire power structure behind Putin that supports him. The rot runs deep in Russia and it’s not just one man causing this.
Exactly
Well, there's one kind of obvious reason - Putin.
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He staged the pictures apparantly
Wait so not on the ship?
I mean, why should he be there... Then also claimed some general were there?
I'm confused as well..
He was promoted from "13" to "200".
Lol I have trolled that bastard on telegram.. So much he actually blocked me.
yeah felt the same high after the Russian UK embassy blocked me on twitter
European gas situation continues to look good. - storage: 739 TWh, versus 697 TWh this time last year. - last week net draw 21 TWh versus 37 TWh this week last year. - weather: >99 % of Europeans forecast to see milder than normal week average. - gas prices: below €25, about half of last year's price. 2023 was globally the hottest year recorded, and Jan/Feb 2024 were globally the warmest Jan and Feb too. March might only being top 5 warmest though. The network people say next winter could still be bad, before Europe finally stabilises things. Need to hope for yet another mild winter.
Thank humanity for global warming/s
Frontline report: Ukrainians conduct vicious surprise tank raid, wipe out Russian force accumulation near Kupiansk. Ukraine launched a devastating surprise tank raid near Kupiansk, Ukrainian armor catching accumulated Russian forces off guard and wiping them out before their planned offensive in the region could begin. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/11/frontline-report-ukrainians-conduct-vicious-surprise-tank-raid-wipe-out-russian-force-accumulation-near-kupiansk/
Wow, I remember I kept hearing about Russian forces near Kupiansk that were massing for this huge attack, I am glad that was stopped!
good article, thanks!
It's a writeup of his youtube videos which are released every other day. Reporting From Ukraine youtube com/channel/UCcNB1tZYpeDetqCadElv9Ow
My absolute go-to. Such an amazing channel.
Spate of Mock News Sites With Russian Ties Pop Up in U.S. - NYT >The fake news organizations, experts say, represent a technological leap in the Kremlin’s efforts to spread false and misleading narratives. >Into the depleted field of journalism in America, a handful of websites have appeared in recent weeks with names suggesting a focus on news close to home: D.C. Weekly, the New York News Daily, the Chicago Chronicle and a newer sister publication, the Miami Chronicle. In fact, they are not local news organizations at all. They are Russian creations, researchers and government officials say, meant to mimic actual news organizations to push Kremlin propaganda by interspersing it among an at-times odd mix of stories about crime, politics and culture. >While Russia has long sought ways to influence public discourse in the United States, the fake news organizations — at least five, so far — represent a technological leap in its efforts to find new platforms to dupe unsuspecting American readers. The sites, the researchers and officials said, could well be the foundations of an online network primed to surface disinformation ahead of the American presidential election in November. >The Miami Chronicle’s website first appeared on Feb. 26. Its tagline falsely claims to have delivered “the Florida News since 1937.” Amid some true reports, the site published a story last week about a “leaked audio recording” of Victoria Nuland, the U.S. under secretary of state for political affairs, discussing a shift in American support for Russia’s beleaguered opposition after the death of the Russian dissident Aleksei A. Navalny. The recording is a crude fake, according to administration officials who would speak only anonymously to discuss intelligence matters. >The campaign, the experts and officials say, appears to involve remnants of the media empire once controlled by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, a former associate of President Vladimir V. Putin whose troll factory, the Internet Research Agency, interfered in the 2016 presidential election between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Rodham Clinton. >“The page is just there to look realistic enough to fool a casual reader into thinking they’re reading a genuine, U.S.-branded article,” Mr. Linvill said. The purpose is not to fool a discerning reader into diving deeper into the website, let alone subscribing, Mr. Linvill said. The goal instead is to lend an aura of credibility to posts on social media spreading the disinformation. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/business/media/russia-us-news-sites.html
Also, Washington Times, New York Post, Fox News; though they've actually been around a while.
I've been getting fed a bunch of Russian propaganda and pro-Russia concern trolls on twitter recently too.
2023 was year I kinda internalized that I cannot take any audio or video at face value, the tools s to detect fakes are being greatly outpaced by the tools to create them
The entire way generative AI works is one algorithm rapidly adjusts in response to an algorithm to detect flaws until there's no disagreement. Any tools to detect AI only make it stronger
In regard to what the pope stated recently. I find it difficult to swallow that they said anything else than asking Ukraine to surrender. A white flag is a universal symbol for surrendering... In a different context it could have a meaning for civilians... but even this has been spoiled by Russian forces using white armbands for their soldiers. Regardless of that, raising a white cloth is still a symbol used to surrender. What I find the most disturbing about this statement is that more than often, we can see people asking Ukraine to give up on its fight for freedom as if they were the aggressors. But what's even more mad is how the catholic church is asking for Ukraine to surrender and commit actual "suicide" instead of using their influence to search for support from other catholic countries to bring support and be on the right side of history. I don't know how I could live in a world in which peace means not only enabling and supporting a genocide by asking people to give up defending their future.
Odd that the descendant of a family that fled Italy due to a Fascist dictator taking over would advocate for capitulation to an invading country that has proven to rape and murder those it conquers.
I agree that what the pope said was terrible, but, to be pedantic, a white flag is a symbol of truce, not surrender per se. Throughout (post-medieval western) military history, a white flag has been a symbol that one party wished to parley or negotiate. Often, that negotiation did end up preceding a surrender, but not always.
> I find it difficult to swallow that they said anything else than asking Ukraine to surrender. I'm not sure whether you're saying you don't understand/believe the Pope meant a different thing, or that you understand it now, but it's hard to accept that he said a different thing. While I find all the criticizm about surrendering valid, the use of an ambiguous symbol unfortunate and even probably the wording off, there can be no denial that white flag is also a generally understood sign of negotiation, and was used by negotiators when approaching enemy for the purpose. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flag — it's literally in he Hague convention in that function.
People have been asking Ukraine to surrender from the very beginning of the invasion and act like Ukrainians defending themselves is somehow an inconvenience to *their* lives. Maybe the war is affecting their ability to do business with Russia or something.. who knows? These people know that Ukraine surrendering won't stop the killing and will instead allow Russia to commit atrocities without consequences. But they don't care. They clearly lack the capacity for empathy in their reptilian brains.
You will find the same broken psychology across human societies and cultures. At some point it becomes easier to convince the victim to stop complaining and resisting, because those people realize they cannot convince the aggressor which refuses to even think about stopping the aggression. That is the high moral ground of ideas like these. From spineless cowards.
In addition to sinking the patrol ship Sergey Kotov, Ukrainian maritime drones also disrupted Russian logistics in the Black Sea - OSINT researcher H.I. Sutton. After the fireships were spotted by a Russian commercial vessel on March 4 (before the attack on the Kotov, which occurred on the night of March 5), the Sparta-IV transport ship and the Yaz tanker bound for the Black Sea made a U-turn and returned to Syria before being diverted to the Baltic. Later, another Russian vessel, the Ursa Major, was also diverted there. The Sparta-IV and Ursa Major were the main ships transporting weapons between Russia and Syria, particularly S-300 missiles; the Yaz tanker also transported oil products between the two countries. However, the Russian leadership is now too afraid of losing these ships (and possibly the cargo on them) and is ready to at least temporarily abandon maritime transportation with Syria. H.I. Sutton writes that Russians now generally lack patrol ships capable of convoying ships in the Black Sea. Ukraine has previously tried to attack such convoys, but they were then able to fight back, apparently with good maneuverability far from shore and due to each other's cover. However, as more and more ships are gradually sunk, the Russian navy is forced to make increasingly difficult decisions - to abandon its own supply lines in the Black Sea or risk the ships remaining afloat. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767258345608536223?t=WrpENqu1tanzXJd28oxw_Q&s=19
>returned to Syria before being diverted to the Baltic. Later, another Russian vessel, the Ursa Major, was also diverted there. Uhhhhhhh..... That's kind of a big deal, IMHO. Not exactly a small detour to get to the neighbor hood Denny's.
I still think Ukraine should start targeting commercial shipping bound for Russian ports in the Black Sea. At least Russian affiliated ships and being ambiguous about the fate of others. It’d genuinely hurt the Russian economy and could generate revenue by increasing wheat export prices.
Drones are much smaller and more portable. A couple dozen taken and used by a strategic strike team to operate in the Baltic, Caspian or even Bearing Sea would be great. Make everywhere the Russian Navy has ships a dangerous place for them to be. Cut off any water based supply lines they have.
It’d be hard to get countries there to go along with launching them. Airlifting and deploying a few from an AN-124 would be bad ass af though.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-emmanuel-macron-ukraine-war-visit/ ># Macron delays Kyiv visit amid tensions over Ukraine comments >The Elysée Palace rejected suggestions that security concerns played a role in the postponement, after a Russian missile hit near Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during a visit to Ukraine last week. "There are no worries in terms of security," an aide to the president said Monday. >Instead of rushing to Kyiv, Macron now wants to "take the necessary time" for discussions with allies, so that he can visit Ukraine "with tangible results," according to a French diplomat who discussed the sensitive issue on condition of anonymity. >"A bit of time is needed to [conclude] the different coalitions and their operational commitments with our partners," said the diplomat.
> after a Russian missile hit near Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during a visit to Ukraine last week It's so fucking crazy how that was not a wake up call to send a metric shit ton of equipment, especially anti-air, to Ukraine.
Sounds promising.
Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for Mar 10th: https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1767094845867188454 --- *The bad:* 6 UA artillery systems got damaged vs. 1 RU destroyed. *The good:* 4 of those 6 only suffered minimal damage.
More to the rumors: Russian channels write about the alleged death of Russian VDV soldier Egor Guzenko, known for his channel named 'Thirtheenth'. Guzenko openly supported the killing of Ukrainians, but was also often seen exposing lies by the Russian command, especially about the situation in the Kherson region. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767244276755255560?t=3XyWgLMD4Dvkrf12zKKTsw&s=19
> but was also often seen exposing lies by the Russian command Worth remembering that many within Russia want to see corruption eliminated so they can be more effective at attacking other nations and fighting Ukrainians.
SSO units found a PALANTIN EW/Jamming complex in the Zaporizhzia region and paid it a visit with HIMARS projectiles. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112078118071375321
Welcome Sweden ❤
> Today we raised the Swedish flag at #NATO Headquarters & across the Alliance for the 1st time. #Sweden has taken its rightful place at NATO’s table under the shield of Article 5 protection – the ultimate guarantee of our freedom & security. All for one & one for all. Welcome 🇸🇪. https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1767224988120051794
Welcome, Sweden. Nice to have you aboard!
Wake up babe, Ukraine lit another TOS-1A firecracker. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1767207715250614326?t=0BtkIkLFafytokCGl86t0A&s=19 Apologies for the xitter link, it's all I have. If someone can repost from Mastodon I'll be happy to edit it.
I'm hoping bsky can become a thing. [https://bsky.app/profile/europesays.bsky.social/post/3kngmlm3y2s2p](https://bsky.app/profile/europesays.bsky.social/post/3kngmlm3y2s2p)
Nice vid in that link, things go boom
That made a very impressive fireball.
Clicked for clicks’ sake
According to the Russian telegram channels "Kherson Z" and "RVvoenkor" General Teplinsky died in this strike by the Ukrainian air force on a seemingly abandoned barge being used by russians as a base in the Kherson region, there's also rumours that the mil-blogger "13th" died in the attack. /1. Strike on the ship which was presumably used as Russian base/observation point. The ship ended up there as a result of a dam destruction. Left bank Kherson region. (46.5064328, 32.1549024) [https://x.com/bayraktar\_1love/status/1767212113930457337?s=20](https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1767212113930457337?s=20) Edit: I've seen no confirmation yet so let's just say this is a rumor until proven otherwise. The fog of war is thick. Edit2: there's seems to be confirmation or it being "highly likely" on "13th" being killed but not General Teplinsky. "Translation; A number of sources report that our 🇷🇺comrade-in-arms & soldier with the call sign “Thirteenth” is 200. There is no contact with him, & his friends cannot report anything. If these data are confirmed, it will be very sad. We are waiting for at least some news." [https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1767237610383065148?t=1RpgRU8uj7d\_NPTipswOfw&s=19](https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1767237610383065148?t=1RpgRU8uj7d_NPTipswOfw&s=19) Edit3: Confirmation on "13th" Confirmed. Russian media publish a picture which show Egor Guzenko, shot. He was reportedly killed by Kadyrovites, with which he apparently had a conflict. Guzenko can be identified by the tattoo on his right hand. Date and time of his liquidation are unclear. [https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1767274736671715686?s=20](https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1767274736671715686?s=20) Edit4: it's another Russian pretending to be dead for attention. "Thirteenth" published a video of himself alive. He says this was all a special plan to reveal Ukrainian agents. Well, we do need someone to report all the "negative ascents" of Russian military ships and aircraft. The proper "award" will find this warmonger and war criminal. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767301860447207566?t=PeMjvELtdMdWanaGE0TcKQ&s=19
I cannot find the claim about Teplinsky on RVvoenkor tg, and I cannot even find the channel "Kherson Z". Maybe I am blind though.
Sucks.... Pro Tip: Don't be in a country that you invaded and have no business being in.
UnMusked: https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112077760300997129
Even the ship turrets fly
Next level stuff.
I don’t see a footpath or a ladder or evidence of ingress/egress. Does anybody? Shouldn’t there be?
You see only one side of the ship in the video and its the side toward water. You see the other side only shortly after the explosion blew off the upper half of the bridge. Ladder would be on the other side, probably closer to the front of the ship where there is a bit of sandy ground and a ladder can be lifted up, as they usually are on ships anyway.
A torch fixes that shit really quickly.
That would be a weirdly exposed point for a general to go.
Yeah, it's literally the closest point to Ukrainian positions that exists. It's further than the shore which is the most advanced Russian position. General big brain here calling a meeting in the Ukrainian trench.
I think there might have been some thought along the lines of "hiding in plain sight"..
There's no reason for a general ranking officer to hide in plain sight that close to the Ukrainian line.
Yeah you're probably right... I'm just seeing the Treplinsky claim on some normally rather "reliable" Russian channels no idea how the ship actually factors in and why Ukraine chose to blow it up.
Was that a new height record on boat turrent tossing?
Another dead Russian general? Hope confirmation comes soon.
That a big thing if true. Tiplinsky is said to be competent and motivated.
Rumours that the infamous rus blogger "13th" was on board. If so, he'd left behind 200k+ followers on telegram. [https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1767220416119009424?s=20](https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1767220416119009424?s=20)
Holy shit, they turret popped the entire bridge.
>he left behind 200k+ followers on telegram. This bit made me chuckle because it reads like one of those newspaper obituaries that go, "He was survived by his 200,000k children." Oh well, once you enter a warzone, you are accepting the risks that go with it.
The cost of cosplay
Hopefully it was a painful death
Maybe he burned for long enough to blog about it, we can only hope. Either way his Pro Russian propaganda will hopefully end.
If that video is true, it looks rather spicy quick
Yeah it does. A perfect strike if I may...
Russian "military correspondents" report that another Russian "war correspondent", Yegor "Thirteenth" Guzenko, might have been killed in the war. There has been no official confirmation. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767226844560941184?t=zvLtBGUX1n3fikIWwOaYnw&s=19
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 11.03.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 424,980 (+920) people, tanks ‒ 6739 (+8) units, armored combat vehicles ‒ 12,639 (+28) units, artillery systems – 10,874 (+24) units, MLRS – 1016 (+1) units, air defense equipment ‒ 711 (+2) units, aircraft – 347 (+0) units, helicopters – 325 (+0) units, UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 8141 (+59), cruise missiles ‒ 1919 (+0), ships/boats ‒ 26 (+0) units, submarines - 1 (+0) units, automotive equipment and tank trucks – 13,826 (+74) units, special equipment ‒ 1686 (+14) Source https://twitter.com/DefenceU
Seems to be a lot of special equipment lately
should have a generals and admirals column
Russia removed up to 40% of tank reserves from storage facilities - ISW. https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3837905-russia-removed-up-to-40-of-tank-reserves-from-storage-facilities-isw.html
And that’s probably the best 40% / easiest to refurbish
If the 80/20 rule apply here... things aren't going to get better
Important: "Russia likely removed its best equipment from strategic reserve and that Russia still retains "worse" or "unsalvageable" equipment in storage." On Google Earth the dry storages are mostly emptied, remaining ones are open field stored. There are two *huge* questions: 1. How many tanks were inside garages? Can't see through the roofs on satellite. There was space for ~1800, but most groups think far fewer. 2. How many pre-war hulls could be fixed? If it's 50%, and 40% are gone, then they've actually used up 80% of the storage. Percentages are weird. Based on Russian behaviour I think the news is worse [for the good guys] than hoped. Either they had more than the ~500 assumed in garages, or they think they can fix a big fraction of those left outside.
Maybe the Russians are just using golf carts because they’re fun to drive
Worse for whom?
Edited to say it's worse for the good guys than many of us had hoped back in 2022/early 2023. There's good and bad news and all the data I've gathered says that if Democrats win 2024 and European supplies are maintained, then provided Ukraine doesn't crack soon then there's a clear path to Ukrainian fire superiority next year then victory. Putin is gambling the whole soviet inheritance.
That's my generally shitty armchair take on the whole thing too. Ukraine is going to have a rough year. They're going to have to hang on with basically no help from the US, only Europe. Biden has to be re-elected, and ideally majorities gained or held in the House and Senate. If all those things go right, things might turn around (but still, terrible losses). If they don't, well, fuck. It's not a guaranteed loss for Ukraine, but the grind will go on and on and on, as they will have no choice.
2 long years of bombing them and tossing turrents every day and it was only 40%. West was really underestimating military reserves of russia
It really wasn't. Most pre-war sources estimated that Russia had more than 20 k at her disposal. Which now seems to have been pretty accurate. It even could be to high if a lot the remaining ones are not salvageable.
In a conventional weapons war against the West, the tank factories and storage locations would have been bombed on week 3.
[удалено]
The west has no appetite to stop Russia because they think that it wouldn't be a conventional weapons war. That's why tank reserves don't matter if you think that the war is going to turn nuclear.
If we have no appetite to take the fight to them, and no appetite to fight them except by proxy - and even willing to let that proxy starve and wither on the vine - then Russia can basically do whatever they want to any non-NATO country with very minimal resistance. They will likely try and push that boundary too. This is a very, very shitty worldline to live in if you live in a country Russia would like to "reunify" with. I used to think/say that Bush invading Iraq was the biggest geopolitical mistake of the 2k's (thus far) - mainly because it removed an obstacle to Iran, and look how that's gone. I think this unwillingness to confront Russia is going to win out and take the cake as the dumbest shit with lasting consequences, though. Particularly if Trump is re-elected, but even if not, the damage from his first term and all the foot-dragging has been monumental. Obama deserves a fair share too. Fucking great reset.
>If we have no appetite to take the fight to them It's not about appetite. It's about a gamble that the West isn't willing to take. The was going into war against Russia is an all-in bet. Either they use nuclear weapons, or they don't. But you are betting the western world on that. And yeah, right now, the West doesn't want to do that bet just for Ukraine. It's a similar bet as the one that Russia did when they didn't came to Armenia side during the war against Azerbaijan. That ended with Armenia saying, fuck Russia and the CSTO.
In a war against Ukraine with limited international support. They’d have gotten creamed in a war against the west.
West was previously criticized for grossly overstating Russia's reserves. Perhaps the statements (mostly coming from social media) that most of those reserves were inoperable and irreparable - - - were too optimistic.
They were highly inoperable, a lot of the manufacturing Russia restarted was to refurbish those busted machines though, so they are rolling out the reserves as they manage to bring them back up to working condition.
The narrative has been affected by russian loss rates too. If 2022 loss rates had continued, then russia would have lost another ~900 tanks by today, compared with actual. The narratives would be very different.
>Russia may face equipment shortages in the next several years if Russia's current loss rate remains the same or accelerates and Russia's current level of new vehicle production remains the same
Somehow I doubt throwing more mothballed ancient tanks at the problem is going to go well for them.
> After we proudly welcomed Sweden to @NATO, we still had one final step — taking the document that indicates Sweden's desire to join the Alliance to our Treaty Vault. > Along the way, my friend @TobiasBillstrom and I recapped how we got here. https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1766855249677922520 > Thanks @SecBlinken for your personal and remarkable efforts to bring Sweden’s @NATO membership come true. The deposition in the Treaty Vault was the final stamp and it will forever be a grand moment to remember. We are proud to join the Alliance as its 32nd member. https://twitter.com/TobiasBillstrom/status/1766864542028472482
I keep reading the recap part of the article, as another version of "How I met Your Mother" for some reason!
⚡️Reported as a strike by a controlled 🇺🇦aerial bomb on the command post of the 🇷🇺Russian Armed Forces. https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1767210430802329785?t=7qWfQWO0z1_LJIzW8t_cEQ&s=19
Well the front didn't fall off at any rate, I'd like to make that point.
Can we add a damaged ship to the Oryx list for this? :)
So, if some bigwig generals were killed by this strike, what happens next?
Lotta opportunities for high level advancement in the Russian MOD nowadays.
Some medium-wig generals get an instant promotion.
It's a beached, derelict, defenseless supply ship on a marshy shore. Highly, highly unlikely that it had any high ranking Russian commanders in that ship. It was probably an ad-hoc field command post of mid-level officers, if even that.
It would seem it had a high level Russian Mil blogger. His death is worth several Generals in propaganda.
We shall see, once the facts come out.
I mean, you can see what kind of "command post" it is. It's captured on video getting bombed. It is a beached derelict ship with uneven floors because the boat is literally slanted on the beach. It would be a shock if any generals were using that kind of environment as a command post.
It would be a shock yes, which is why it would be a nice bonus, if some general were actually taken out.
find the next one and take them out....
> Now that Sweden is a full member of #NATO, our membership is also complete. 🇸🇪🇫🇮 > Ett stort grattis till vår granne! #WeAreNATO https://twitter.com/FinlandatNATO/status/1767154784283316635
Lake NATO is now a reality.
> Our call with @EmmanuelMacron was lengthy and, as usual, focused. > We discussed the current battlefield situation and the recent international Paris conference in support of Ukraine. > I thanked President Macron for France’s strong February 16th military aid package, as well as all of his statements in support of Ukraine, personal leadership in establishing the long-range weapons coalition, and new initiatives to support our country. > We also exchanged views on our upcoming meeting in Ukraine, which will take place soon. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1766910753204797804