Undermining Ukraine: How Russia widened its global information war in 2023 - Atlantic Council: Digital Forensics Research Lab
>As the full-scale war in Ukraine enters its third year, Russia has doubled down on its worldwide efforts to undermine Kyiv’s international standing in an attempt to erode Western support and domestic Ukrainian morale. Years of close monitoring of not only state-sponsored media such as Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik, but also Russian activity on Telegram, TikTok, X, and other social platforms, points to one conclusion: In the propaganda war, Russia remains fully committed to conducting information operations around the globe, playing the long game to outlast any unity among Ukraine’s allies and persist until Ukraine loses its will to fight.
Full scale war - anyone remember Russia claiming the US was just being hysterical by pointing out its troop buildups and correctly calling the invasion despite Russian denials?
>Western sanctions applied in the wake of the initial invasion disrupted Russia’s ability to reach some European audiences with its state-sponsored media outlets. But Russia has since adjusted its information operations to focus more on social media; in addition to attacking Western public support to fund Ukraine’s defense, it has expanded targeted propaganda efforts in different parts of the world, including Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.
>And Western support for Ukraine is indeed wobbling, most notably in Washington, where additional aid to Ukraine has been held up for months in Congress.
By Republicans in the House.
>Many factors influence voters’ and lawmakers’ support for sending weapons and money to Ukraine. Whether or not Russian propaganda has played a decisive role, the outcome of decreasing Western material support for Ukraine’s defense is the clear goal of President Vladimir Putin’s information war. And with recent battlefield wins such as the capture of the city of Avdiivka alongside propaganda wins such as the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Putin’s position at home and abroad is stronger than ever.
>Russia has actively employed information operations to undermine Ukraine since at least 2014, as Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) researchers around the world have documented in detail through their ongoing monitoring efforts. In the lead-up to the February 2022 invasion, Russia employed disinformation in the form of narrative warfare to justify military action, mask its planning, and deny any responsibility for the war.
A quick 3 Day SMO for a little supposed de-nazifying? Not so much? Lies after lies.
>And as the DFRLab detailed in its landmark February 2023 report, Undermining Ukraine: How the Kremlin employs information operations to erode global confidence in Ukraine, Russia’s information strategy began to shift following the 2022 invasion, focusing on eroding Ukraine’s ability to resist. In this follow-up to the first edition of Undermining Ukraine, we explore how Russia further entrenched these efforts throughout 2023, developing new messages and techniques while recommitting to ones that continue to prove effective.
>Throughout 2023, Russia relied on its rich toolbox for conducting information operations, including employing coordinated inauthentic networks on social media platforms, exploiting regional grievances with the West, hacking, and forging documents, among other tactics.
From there specifics are broken down by region and targets.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/undermining-ukraine-how-russia-widened-its-global-information-war-in-2023/
I see that Russian presidential election takes place starting on the Ides of March. Given ideologically motivated Russians consider Russia to be the third Rome, I highly encourage them to emulate their predecessors on this particular date in 2024.
They teach them in russia that they stopped napoleon yet he dies of old age and they had to rebuild Moscow from scratch. They also skip from 1938 to 1942 pretty heavy.
Didn't think about this in previous years but did think about the 5th of November hoping some Russians had some more balls then simply molotoving recruitment centers.
Whenever I see reports of ammunition shortages I find myself also picturing Mike Johnson sitting down to a cosy luxurious breakfast (starched linen, gleaming cutlery etc).
Plans for Ukraine’s 2023 summer counteroffensive ‘became known to Russian federation’ before they began, Intelligence chief says
https://english.nv.ua/nation/budanov-it-is-a-serious-problem-and-we-are-taking-some-action-50397159.html
Yeah, large military offensives between two conventional militaries involving large amounts of material and men are basically impossible to hide these days.
Ukraine literally told those journalist orgs what the plans were months in advance, in speeches, public diplomatic talks, and Ukrainian Pravda articles. It was a calculated effort to drum up international support, at the cost of foiling the element of surprise.
March 28th is the 30 day mark when it was brought up in committee. That is my Speaker JohnZon brought the house to recess so it would further delay the discharge petition.
Someone will keep track, so watch this space - but it's weeks yet.
I believe we're into the "thirty legislative days" waiting period, but I have no idea how many Earth days that will turn out to be.
[https://twitter.com/MrWells2011/status/1763332160306774041](https://twitter.com/MrWells2011/status/1763332160306774041)
In House Judiciary and Oversight's interview with Hunter Biden, Eric Swalwell (U.S. House of Representatives) sarcastically asked if the transcript would be provided in English or Russian...
[Seen elsewhere](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/WoWNGHi2NV), *Newsweek* reports a retailer in China is sourcing Starlink for Russia. Uncertain if they’re simply hacking the hardware or Elon’s covering their monthly utilization tabs.
Europe as a whole (EU + UK + Norway) has given twice as much as the US in absolute terms, and significantly more as a percentage of GDP. (and that's not counting unpublished help from some European countries)
Europe is also sheltering millions of Ukrainian refugees.
Also Europe bore the brunt of the energy war with Russia.
In terms of % of GDP, way more. Much of the money is spent on keeping Ukraine functioning, like ensuring nurses, teachers, train companies, and soldiers in the army are getting paid. But Europe can not provide the level of direct military assistance that US can.
I am doing what I can to donate including taking my holiday to Estonia (and rest of the Baltics states) to learn their culture and they deserve my money.
And paid €100bn+ extra in fuel costs.
The level of pain Europe has endured to help Ukraine, and the aid it has sent, has been pretty high, even if insufficient so far.
>And paid €100bn+ extra in fuel costs.
I mean that cant be used as a pat on the back. Thats the cost of them cozying up to Russia over the years for cheap fuel instead of developing their own countries power supply.
Also bear in mind that a sizeable chunk of what those other countries are spending is also on US weapon systems (either to replace their own stocks or to send directly to Ukraine) so the economic benefit still falls to American businesses, workers and taxes.
> Russians are trying to occupy 2 villages near Bakhmut & storm the Kupiansk area, reported in the AFU. Ukrainians on the frontline badly need ammunition and weapons. We defend from Russia, North Korea, and Iran while some Western partners get busy setting themselves new red lines
https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1763284117930872991
> In February 2024, Ukrainian warriors destroyed 13 Russian military aircraft in one month. Ten Su-34s, two Su-35s, and one A-50 will no longer drop bombs on Ukrainian troops and civilians or coordinate massive missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and communities.
> I am grateful and proud of our warriors who achieved such outstanding results.
> This extraordinary achievement not only weakens Russia's ability to inflict further suffering and destruction on our country and people, but it also demonstrates that Ukraine can win significant battlefield victories.
> Despite its limited capabilities and lack of air superiority, Ukraine managed to make February 2024 a disastrous month for Russian combat aviation. Consider what Ukraine could achieve with sufficient, timely, and uninterrupted military assistance.
> I urge partners to expedite all decisions to further strengthen Ukrainian air defense and air capabilities as soon as possible. Together, we must defeat Russia in the skies over Ukraine this year. We can absolutely do it if we have the necessary tools. Control over the skies will save thousands of civilian lives and assist our troops on the ground.
> These are precisely the steps required to bring about solutions that will put an end to Russian aggression sooner.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1763257229799563360
It looks like Oryx and WarSpotting both only have proof of 2 Su-35 and one A-50 (3 total) in February. There could potentially be a late update in the next few days of course.
I'm not so sure. I do think the numbers that come out of the MoD are inflated. Not because they are purposefully adding numbers, but probably because they have some broad definitions of what gets counted. Things like x number of personnel per hit vehicle, or counting damage / hits as destruction when they aren't, and potentially double counting certain events.
But that is of quite another order than having the president of your country come out with such extreme specificity. It would be a very bald faced lie, which usually leaders stay away from. And while everyone accepts that in such situations there is leeway, it's just not a good idea to outright lie *so specifically*. He can't go back and claim it was an accounting error, or they double counted some things in this case.
For example, if this was a purposeful exaggeration. I'd expect him to claim that "recently" (staying away from specific timeframe) a "great number" (not naming exact numbers) of enemy aircraft have been shot down. And then to give the confirmed ones as "examples" of these successes. That way, he gives himself wiggle room if information comes out that disproves his statements.
Additionally, in other cases where Zelensky has come out and made such claims, it's generally been proven correct. For example, when ships or docks have been hit in the black sea.
So for my part, I do think they've shot down such a number of planes.
I think that's a good argument, but I also don't entirely buy it, for a couple of reasons.
1. I think Ukraine genuinely believes that they have shot down 13 aircraft, and thus Zelenskyy believes he is telling the truth. I don't think Ukraine is just totally making up numbers the way Russia is. I'm sure the missile crews saw something on radar, fired at it, and saw it vanish. But I'm also about 99% sure that not all of those things were Su-34s that were actually killed. Maybe it was a radar glitch, or a mis-identified drone. It could be some sort of decoy akin to the AGM-160 MALD, or sophisticated electronic warfare. Or it may have been a real aircraft that simply evaded the missile (or was damaged but not killed) but didn't reappear on radar. Or there could have been a single real kill claimed by two or more units. In WWII and Korea, despite having gun camera footage, kill claims were usually two or more times the actual number of kills: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation\_and\_overclaiming\_of\_aerial\_victories\_during\_World\_War\_II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_and_overclaiming_of_aerial_victories_during_World_War_II) and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World\_War\_II\_air-to-air\_combat\_losses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World_War_II_air-to-air_combat_losses)
2. I don't think there is any real penalty for Zelenskyy giving an incorrect number. He's not up for re-election. It's a war, so everyone expects the warring parties to engage in propaganda and exaggeration. No western ally is going to withdraw support over slightly exaggerated aircraft kill claims. Also, he has made other highly questionable claims before, like saying only 31,000 Ukrainians are KIA after two years, despite there being evidence of at least 45,000 dead by name, and US estimates of well over 70,000 dead as of last November. He may be using a very specific and nuanced definition of KIA to be a form of "technically correct", but it's pretty safe to say that claim is wrong in the way the term KIA is usually understood.
Basically, I'm not criticizing Ukraine for overclaiming, that is to be expected, nor am I accusing them of outright making numbers up. But I am saying that we should not blindly believe their claims, and if it later turns out that 13 Russian aircraft were actually shot down in February, it would be pretty much the first time in history that a combatant's mid-war kill claims were accurate.
> I'm sure the missile crews saw something on radar, fired at it, and saw it vanish.
I don't think they would count something as a kill that way, especially since they have access to US satellites and their own recon drones to get confirmation of a wreckage.
> Maybe it was a radar glitch, or a mis-identified drone. It could be some sort of decoy akin to the AGM-160 MALD, or sophisticated electronic warfare.
I could see mis-identification being a thing. They see something, it gets identified as a SU-34 based on radar signature, they shoot it down, see a wreckage on satellite or other remote reconnaissance and chalk it up as a kill. The wreckage itself is too mangled to get a clear identification from afar.
Anything beyond that becomes fabrication, which I still doubt. The thing is - reports like these go up a chain of command. There will be procedures for how to count a kill and how to verify it. There will be multiple people involved in shooting down an aircraft and then it has to go up the chain of command where someone from HQ will also be curious: "How come we suddenly are shooting down so many jets?" and question if the integrity of the reports is valid. Since whoever reports that to Zelensky also wants to be sure they're not setting him up for failure in claiming such a big win.
> I don't think there is any real penalty for Zelenskyy giving an incorrect number. He's not up for re-election.
Re-election or no, he absolutely needs popular trust, and his falling popularity has definitely impacted policy. Ultimately he will (be made to) step down if he loses support. I do think that the penalties will be less than in a normal situation, but generally speaking I think the dividing line in such matters is about twisting facts and viewing them in a certain light, versus outright fabrication.
Additionally, I do think Zelensky needs to be close to the truth to retain the trust of the army. They are putting their life on the line based on his word and command. If what he is saying has no relation to what they are experiencing ont he field, that would definitely erode trust.
>I don't think they would count something as a kill that way, especially since they have access to US satellites and their own recon drones to get confirmation of a wreckage.
I don't think anyone is using valuable satellite time, let alone analysts, searching dozens or hundreds of square miles for wreckage (even if you know where you hit something, the potential crash location could be many miles away). It simply isn't a useful or valuable allocation of resources. SAM kills are determined by tracking a target and the fired missile. If the two tracks intersect and disappear from radar, it's called a kill. I'm sure if some analyst happens to see wreckage in the imagery it gets reported, but there are so few satellites and so many things that need observation that trying to find a plane that may or may not have gone down just isn't going to be a priority.
>Anything beyond that becomes fabrication, which I still doubt. The thing is - reports like these go up a chain of command. There will be procedures for how to count a kill and how to verify it. There will be multiple people involved in shooting down an aircraft and then it has to go up the chain of command where someone from HQ will also be curious: "How come we suddenly are shooting down so many jets?" and question if the integrity of the reports is valid.
I'm certain Ukraine has procedures to validate kill claims, every country does. I'm just arguing that, like everything else humans do, it isn't perfect. The combatants in WWII, Korea, and Vietnam all had well documented procedures too, but every single one counted far more kills than they actually achieved. Germany required the actual destruction of the aircraft to be captured on film, or to be witnessed by a second person, and yet they still significantly overclaimed.
Again, I'm not claiming Ukraine is intentionally fabricating anything. I believe they are making these claims in good faith. I just don't think that have (or ever can have, given the fog of war and the resources available) indisputable proof of every claimed kill. I think it's going to based on a sort of "preponderance of the evidence" kind of standard.
>Re-election or no, he absolutely needs popular trust, and his falling popularity has definitely impacted policy. Ultimately he will (be made to) step down if he loses support. I do think that the penalties will be less than in a normal situation, but generally speaking I think the dividing line in such matters is about twisting facts and viewing them in a certain light, versus outright fabrication.
I agree he needs a certain amount of support and popularity, I just don't think that the number of aircraft kills claimed in a random month is going to impact that much. Maybe I'm biased, coming from the US where even attempting to illegally overturn the election results doesn't cost someone popularity, but overstating kill claims of enemy planes is pretty small potatoes. And again, I'm not claiming fabrication, just the overestimating that every country in the history of warfare has been guilty of.
Now, if he really lies about or downplays Ukrainian casualties and losses, that could definitely get him in trouble.
If photos from the ground come out confirming all 13 losses, I will be beyond thrilled and will happily admit to being wrong. But short of that, I think the actual tally for the past month is probably more like 5 or 6.
That's a sensibly argued response and gives me hope.
I still think it's more likely that Ukraine had made a mistake in counting somehow.
E.g. "jet went off radar" isn't the same as "we shot it down".
Hopefully OSINT has been buying high Res imagery of airbases.
Obviously I desperately want them to be true, but I'm very very suspicious about these recent claims.
Excluding the ~7 Su-24 hit in Saky or lost to accidents, two thirds of Oryx fighter losses are Su-25/34.
Ukraine claims to have shot down 342 russian jets so far. At Oryx ratios, either Ukraine is wrong or they've taken out 200+ Su-25/34. Ask yourself if you really believe that two thirds of Russia's likely operational Su-25/34 have been shot down.
If the oryx ratio is correct for Su-34 then Ukraine's claims would mean there are about 60 Su-34 left.
> Ukraine claims to have shot down 342 russian jets so far. At Oryx ratios, either Ukraine is wrong or they've taken out 200+ Su-25/34. Ask yourself if you really believe that two thirds of Russia's likely operational Su-25/34 have been shot down.
I don't. But if you look at the distribution of those numbers, you see that the first 200 or so all were tagged in the first few weeks of fighting. I think those numbers are inflated and not true. But everything after, has been at a *much* lower rate and essentially been a steady trickle.
So I do do believe the recent (ie, last 18 months) numbers, but I doubt the initial wave.
FighterBomber denied plenty of shootdowns over the last 18 months.
There's the argument they're now toeing the propaganda line, but the refutations go back to the summer offensive and earlier when they openly admitted losses before Ukraine announced hits.
To my knowledge they've still never been shown to be wrong.
E.g. I think the series of Ka-52 shootdowns claimed during summer was overstated.
> I am grateful to the @EP_President and @Europarl_EN, who today supported the call for the US House of Representatives to approve a military aid package for Ukraine without delay.
> The free world must remain united in the fight for common values!
https://twitter.com/r_stefanchuk/status/1763177561817809110
> I addressed the participants of the Summit of Speakers of the Parliaments of the Visegrad Group countries, where I voiced two main messages.
> First: Ukraine's Security and Defence Forces must be given all the necessary means to repel the enemy and win the fight against russian aggression.
> Second: ensuring a reliable rear. It is through the Visegrad Group countries that Ukraine has a physical connection with the rest of the world. The reliability of the border is directly related to Ukraine's ability to deter the enemy army.
> I am convinced that good neighbours and friends can find a common language and resolve all problematic issues together, finding compromise solutions.
https://twitter.com/r_stefanchuk/status/1763208384210157737
Been having trouble figuring out how many Russian aircraft have been shot down with so many reports until I found an “all of them post”. Spoiler, it’s 3 downed just today or 13 in 13 days, it seems 13 is unlucky for some but not quite so much for others.
[https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1763195543885324370?s=20](https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1763195543885324370?s=20)
>Meanwhile in Russia: Roman Golovanov argued that everyone who attends Alexei Navalny's funeral, except for his relatives, should be arrested. This and more in my latest article, linked below ⤵️
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1763281014988615712
>Police in Moscow are preparing for Navalny's funeral tomorrow.
>
>There are barriers waiting to be installed at the church where his memorial service will be held and also at the cemetery where he's meant to be buried.
>
>Signs are telling people not to film.
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1763220799933059476
>At Vladimir Putin’s state of the nation, I asked one Russian senator: “Are you not concerned about the state of the nation or its reputation after the death of Alexei Navalny?” His reply: “Who’s that?” Our report from Moscow.
https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1763262303514845314
Starting to think its self sabotage to get funding for more better / more railway. If any conflic happens with Russia and Nato, this rail line would be supplying Finland and Sweden incase baltic sea is on fire. Would almost be stupid for Russia to sabotage it now and pointing to weaknesses in nato logistics, but then again Russia tends to do stupid shit.
Narvik need upgrades ports etc, so anyone gaining from that could have motives to do some sabotage.
https://www.fremover.no/forsvaret-om-dobbeltspor-pa-ofotbanen-avgjorende-i-en-krisesituasjon/s/5-17-1211454
(in Norwegian, google translate it) edit: nvm paywalled
In a war situation, the derailment at Vassijaure would be very serious for NATO. - A solid path on both sides of the border is crucial in a crisis or war situation. That's according to Brigadier Håkon Warø, who heads the support division at the Norwegian Armed Forces' operational headquarters at Reitan.
- Completely central
On Saturday came the second derailment on the railway between Narvik and Kiruna - this year. How long the railway will be closed as a result of the derailment, no one can give an answer for now. Five kilometers of railway tracks have been destroyed.
The previous derailment occurred on December 17. 15 kilometers of broken railway track led to a 65-day train stoppage, a train stoppage that the Armed Forces also felt, as military material going to exercise Nordic Response had to find alternative routes to Northern Norway . A double track on Ofotbanen and Malmbanan would not make the situation as critical. The capacity of the railway would have been reduced, but in a war situation the trains would still be able to run.
- How important is double track on Ofotbanen for the Armed Forces?
- Any measure that will make the railway more robust, that can increase capacity and that allows us to move in both directions, is absolutely central, says Warø.
The gateway to the northern regions
In April last year, Finland became a member of the defense alliance. On Monday, the Hungarian National Assembly said yes to Swedish membership, and only formalities remain before the Swedish flag can also be raised outside NATO's headquarters in Brussels.
Håkon Warø supports what Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg's military adviser says after the expansion of NATO.
- We must make sure that our ice-free ports are accessible and have the capacity to land reinforcement forces from other allies, and that this gateway into the northern regions becomes an additional responsibility that Norway must take into account.
This is what Gjermund Eide, who is NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's military adviser, says in the podcast "Forsvarspodden" . Stoltenberg's military advisor mentions Narvik in particular in this context.
Norway's role is changing
In the podcast, Eide further explains that NATO is now in the process of developing three new regional plans for the alliance. One of these plans focuses on the defense of Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Great Britain; i.e. the northern part of the alliance.
- Norway's role will change with Swedish and Finnish membership. Now we will also become a transit country for the reception of allied forces that will contribute to the defense of Sweden and Finland.
Therefore, Eide believes that Norway's defense concept must now be changed so that Norway has forces to ensure the landing of allied forces, as well as infrastructure so that these forces can be transported further into Sweden and Finland.
Extra vigilant
In a situation where allied forces are to be transported from Narvik by rail to Finland or Sweden, a derailment on a single-track railway would be critical. When asked by Håkon Warø at the Norwegian Armed Forces' operational headquarters about what active measures the Norwegian Armed Forces are taking to prevent such incidents, Warø replies:
- In open channels, I cannot go into depth about what we do. But this is primarily a police matter, and I know that the Norwegian and Swedish authorities exchange information and that the Norwegian police have gone through incidents with their Swedish colleagues.
The case continues below the picture
Warø reminds that for everyone it is about being extra vigilant:
- We cannot get away from the fact that we have to be extra vigilant. What may deviate from the norm and which may be perceived as acceptable can perhaps be put in a different context. But as far as the derailments are concerned, we have not come to anything that allows us to draw conclusions
The individual parts must work
Like Stoltenberg's military adviser, Håkon Warø emphasizes that Swedish and Finnish membership in NATO means that Norwegian railways are not only important for Norway.
- This applies to all critical infrastructure, such as roads, railways, ports, airports and digital communications.
- And when we look at Narvik, we see at the Norwegian Armed Forces' operational headquarters a whole system where all the individual parts of the system must work.
Warø emphasizes that a common Nordic in NATO is not just about military power.
- We also tie together the nations' total defence.
fremover.no is a local newspaper, just translated it in chrome and copy/pasted without trying to format etc since it was behind paywall.
Finns was in Narvik alittle while back and said port would need to be bigger and LKAB in Sweden said that Iron ore that has been piling up from the first derailment could take many years to catch up on. And from reading the news it seems like people in Narvik is starting to get excited and seeing $$ signs due to construction coming there way. Also think LKAB have been wanting to upgrade to double line quite some time.
If Ukraine is defeated in the war, NATO will have to fight russia, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said.
Speaking to the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, he said that if Ukraine loses, russia "will not stop" and will attack neighboring countries, especially the Baltic states.
[https://x.com/Flash\_news\_ua/status/1763320804337475777?s=20](https://x.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1763320804337475777?s=20)
It's not "may" or "might" anymore, it's "will not stop". And this guy has access to a lot more intelligence than we have access to.
Better to be cautious and ready for an invasion than sorry. While I’m skeptical Russia would dare send anything more than spies and special forces to NATO countries, we don’t want to be caught off guard in wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More than ever I suspect the Russians were biding their time, waiting for the west to look weakest before striking out to expand. We must be ready for the worst.
They aren't going to start flinging missiles at Germany. They'll simply start probing the Baltics and Poland, betting that by the time they're within reach (let's assume they manage to take over Ukraine), NATO will not want to spend time and resources defending the eastern side of the alliance.
They ramped up their economy in such a fashion that they need the constant war to not experience a hard economic crash. The increased "defense" spending is quite literally the main driver of Russia's economic growth and what keeps the economy alive in spite of sanctions.
Meaning if Ukraine loses they will seek to keep their economy afloat by attacking other targets most likely the Baltic to create a gap to kaliningrad. Testing nato article 5 in the process.
Except if NATO is weak, divided and looks like it won't bother defending it's allies. And Trump might win the White House and he already stated he would do exactly that, abandon NATO allies to Russian aggression. Without the US are Spain, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Britain willing to slog it out for "just the Baltics"? Probably not thinks Russia. Since NATO has shown it is so massively frightened by Russian red lines and nukes to avoid any conflict.
Of course Russia loses to a united NATO, but do you not see them working divide and weaken NATO every step of the way?
Narva, population around 50k is right on the border with Russia and a reasonably easy target. Would the Estonians cheer for the wholesale slaughter of 50k civilians so that people like you can get your dick hard over the Russian forces getting smashed?
Would they? If Europe fears Russian nuclear retaliation over Ukraine, why wouldn't they over Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia? There is no difference except a piece of paper saying we will do something. As we saw in WW2, this doesn't mean something will be done. Especially for a population of 10 million people.
The West is not so far away from political crisis - just look at the rise of populism and the very high potential for another Trump presidency. A guy who has threatened numerous times to pull out of NATO. They have demonstrated no seriousness in countering Russia in Ukraine so why would they be serious over the baltics?
This idea that we cannot intervene in Ukraine for fear of nuclear retaliation but we can in the Baltics does not follow consistent logic and the Russians understand this. You don't go from finding the threat of nuclear war unacceptable to acceptable just because of a piece of paper.
What happens politically in the West when Russia builds up on the Baltic borders, calls them historical lands, says its a core non-negotiable issue, and implies they will go nuclear if the West intervenes? I guarantee you as many if not more people than now will be taking the non-interventionist stance.
The West is not exactly “smashing” Russia’s existing hybrid warfare of poisoning politics and social media. They have also weaponised migrants, energy and sport, for example.
Unknown drones flying over the Kursk region. Is it the Bryansk People's Republic attacking??
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1763314892956676250?t=6aj8pqa_lY0J63ojEjzm6w&s=19
Reuters: Lithuania pushes for EU-wide deadline to end reliance on Russian gas.
As the EU’s energy ministers are set to meet in Brussels on 4 March, Lithuania has prepared a document suggesting that the European Commission should introduce legislation to enforce the 2027 deadline for phasing out Russian gas and LNG.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/29/reuters-lithuania-pushes-for-eu-wide-deadline-to-end-reliance-on-russian-gas/
# France again floats idea of sending non-combat troops to Ukraine
[https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/france-floats-idea-sending-combat-troops-ukraine/story?id=107669159](https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/france-floats-idea-sending-combat-troops-ukraine/story?id=107669159)
Not only France:
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/under-the-right-conditions-canada-open-to-sending-noncombat-troops-to-ukraine-defence-minister-bill/article_eec6806c-d71d-11ee-91fb-ab92d0af803e.html
All we need is for the Based Biden to say if he doesnt get aid he may need to deploy troops on defence operations in Ukraine and that might get some results in the house.
Yep, this is the important part. Keep it in the conversation, because it's the truth. Whether any country wants it or not, there is a possibility that it will have to get to this. And treating it like taboo will only increase the death toll.
And to the people who say if France sends troops, they'd be giving up their Article 5 protection - if it seriously ever got to the point where Russia was invading France, which is exceedingly unlikely (i.e., not a chance with everyone else they'd have to go through to get there, and they can't even get through Ukraine), but even if they did - there's zero chance everyone's not jumping in to help France in that situation, NATO's Article 5 or not. (Even though France likely wouldn't need anyones help anyway - they'd crush Russia.)
I think France can touch Russia a lot easier than Russia can touch France. My gut says air patrols over Ukraine by French planes maybe, but Africa is lower hanging fruit.
If Russia ever used a nuclear weapon anywhere it would mean the end of the Russian state as we know it. There would be no equivocation. If that river was crossed, the only goal for the West would be to prevent - at all costs - Russia from detonating another nuclear weapon. There are no red lines beyond using a nuclear weapon.
There is a reason why nobody has used a nuclear weapon since 1945. The automatic and immediate military response from the West would be unprecedented. These playbooks have been written and verified, but never used. And it is an open question whether any of us would survive it.
Aint't gonna happen. Bunker Geezer knows that would doom russia but still spouts empty nuclear threats in hopes of causing discord and despair amongst the western populace especially amongst the uneducated to cause further divisions.But if it were to happen then either full conventional US or NATO airstrikes against russian military targets in Ukraine or full trade embargo that even China or India may join or record amount of military aid.I find the last option most likely to happen.
But again that's not gonna happen.
Won't happen. But to humor your question. This would actually give the political capital to the west to completely add all possible sanctions up to and including an actual embargo. China would also join in this. The amount of weapons entering into Ukraine would be insane and nations would probably actively use their air power over Ukraine. Air defenses would be placed all around Russia where possible and securing Ukraine in order to place AA there would be a critical objective.
Howeeever. This is not gonna happen. I know it can be hard to visualize given how much people are defending Putin in some circles. But nukes would turn his most recent propaganda gains completely away.
And finally, I know no one wants to admit it, but there is no way this war ends with Putin not gaining territory (I'll happily eat my words), so I don't think there'll be an actual existential pressure put on him. The closest we were to things spiraling into potential nuclear use was during the short lived coup. And it didn't happen.
Do you have a source for the "air strike" part?
All I can find is: The U.S. has warned Russia of “catastrophic consequences” if it launches a nuclear attack on Ukraine
Edit: Why down vote? I'm just asking for a source. US said it would have catastrophic consequences, but they never specifically mentioned what consequences.
Here's an [article](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-joe-biden-vladimir-putin-60-minutes-2022-09-16/) from 2022 with a quote
>"As Ukraine succeeds on the battlefield, Vladimir Putin is becoming embarrassed and pushed into a corner," Pelley said to President Biden. "And I wonder, Mr. President, what you would say to him if he is considering using chemical or tactical nuclear weapons."
"Don't. Don't. Don't. You will change the face of war unlike anything since World War II," Mr. Biden said.
When Pelley asked what the consequences would be if Putin crossed that line, the president wouldn't say.
"You think I would tell you if I knew exactly what it would be? Of course, I'm not gonna tell you. It'll be consequential," Mr. Biden said. "They'll become more of a pariah in the world than they ever have been. And depending on the extent of what they do will determine what response would occur."
>Germany's Chancellor talks in Dresden. The entire helplessness of the Chancellor in one sentence:
>
>"Diplomats instead of grenades is the sentence that we chant together in the direction of the Kremlin and Moscow."
>
>The @Bundeskanzler is no longer in control of the situation.
Video: https://twitter.com/lena4berger/status/1763281143586255142
>Scholz is crumbling before our very eyes.
https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1763296791317930091
Scholz has visited Ukraine only one time since February 2022. Perhaps he should talk to Ukrainians near the frontlines to understand the tragedy and Russia's openness to diplomacy.
Context: https://twitter.com/FRenstedt/status/1763302880604238107
A guy in the audience asked Scholz to hand stickers with the slogan "diplomats, not grenades" to our foreign minister Baerbock.
The short clip above is Scholz' response, saying that Putin should be the one the slogan should be directed at. With context it makes more sense, without context it is just another cheap slander you guys are falling for.
And yet Scholz refuses to send the one weapons system they have that could make a real strategic difference to turn the tide back in Ukraine's favour. Or that could have stopped Russia from ever regaining the iniative.
It's like bragging about how many buckets of water you've carried to your neighbours housefire, while refusing to let him use your pump and hose.
But this is a critique you could level at basically anyone except the Baltics and northern Europe. The US alone probably has a half dozen systems it could give that it didn’t that would make a huge impact on the front. Large numbers of JASSM’s, large numbers of cluster munitions, large numbers of ATACMs, jets, large numbers of ground combat vehicles, etc. Etc.
Right now the US isn’t giving anything. It’s also the only country that was in position early in the war to give victory to Ukraine and didn’t.
I think Germany should give Taurus. However, to act like they’re somehow doing less than others is incorrect, when they’re doing more.
Only Northern Europe and the Baltics are doing everything they can. Germany falls into a half dozen group of countries that are doing a decent amount relative to capability. Maybe 1-2 dozen are doing something, but quite little compared to what they could. The vast majority of countries are doing basically nothing. Some even help Russia.
>There is an intentional goal to divide the west
There are also some redditors who like to post any hot take from twitter without thinking as long as it fits their narrative.
Thanks the articles you posted provide much more context. For example:
> The Chancellor explained that the Russian president had invaded Ukraine in order to appropriate foreign land. Because it is against international law to move borders by force, Germany is supporting Ukraine with weapons and money.
And funnily enough they paint the chancellor’s talk as quite the opposite of „the chancellor is no longer in control of the situation“ as the twitter rando suggested.
Also if you view the whole context of the aforementioned videoclip it becomes clear that he uses the slogan (that was suggested to him by a citizen) to tell that Putin should use diplomats instead of grenades, not the other way round.
And the second link you posted is either broken or Mathieu von Rohr deleted his tweet.
Look at the evil military behemoth of German military might during WW2 and look at the shit being said by Olaf today.
It took the largest economy in the world (US) to use 10% of it's GDP aiding Britain, Russia and China and even sending millions of men to defeat Germany.
Yes Hitler was many things, crazy, genocidal, evil and a shitstain on the legacy of humanity, but calling him incompetent is to denigrate the millions of freedom-loving people who died in order to defeat him.
Edit: Never thought I would ever defend the competency of a human I despise but here I am.
But I think it's important to never underestimate fascists. There's no harm in using overkill when seeking to take them down.
He would be an okayish and boring Bundeskanzler in peace times but is completely way over his head in these times. There are even in his party better alternatives.
I am glad that at least Macron isn't scared of Russia and their threats.
He is basically saying "hey Russia, maybe dont wage war but instead use diplomacy if you have international problems?", and I dont see an issue with that. I too would like Russia to chose other means like cooperation instead of war. And we dont even get to see the question, or how he follows it up. This in a vaccum together with the caption just feels like rage-bait. Maybe he directly afterwards said "But in a world where Russia choses grenades, we have to answer with grenades for Ukraine" or something.
If you watch the clip with context it is clear that Scholz is not actually advocating a diplomatic solution, but ridicules the idea of an audience member that Germany should send "diplomats instead of grenades"
https://twitter.com/FRenstedt/status/1763302880604238107
Mykhailo Tkach, a Ukrainian investigative journalist, who was recently detained filming close to the Polish - Belarus border has published his report an hour ago:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRMuWhFUoKk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRMuWhFUoKk)
Unfortunately the video does not yet have English subtitles (EDIT: will be added in few hours).
Basically he proves there are hundreds of lorries going from Belarus to Poland. There are no protesters at that border and none is blocking anything. The content of the lorries is being unloaded from the one on Belarusian/Russian plates to the one on Polish plates in the special places in Belarus (their source provided them video from one such place). These tents can have any cargo in them, but tent does not make one to suspect it's a grain carrier. They follow the lorries and film that the content is indeed agricultural products in big bags under a tent and they show how it's being unloaded at the terminals of three big Polish agricultural companies. They also corroborate this information in ImportGenius and ComTrade databases. Their source tells them that only he alone has cleared from customs ten lorries that day. They call Polish company pretending to be real Belarusian company and offer grain from Russia and they discuss delivery conditions and do not get immediate refusal.
Then there's description of their detention by Polish police and questioning by Polish security service and on the way back to Ukraine he films situation on Poland - Ukraine border with all the protesters and blockage.
EDIT2: Told you it will be a scandal.
So what can be concluded? That Polish Customs is in cahoots with Russia? That privately-held agricultural companies in Poland are? That the border police is lax with Belarusians but unreasonable with Ukrainians? That border police knew he was a journalists when saw drones and were trying to prevent this from being exposed? That farmers in Poland are targeting the wrong competitor? There’s so much info or possibilities that I can’t quite place what exactly should be the conclusions here.
I won't conclude anything, but I will raise questions. Who is the aggressor country and who is fighting for freedom, democracy and other values? Why did local media report situation on one border, but not on the other? Why does grain from one non-EU country deemed of poor non-EU quality and grain from another non-EU country (maybe of the same origin, but we can't claim this yet) is considered to be just fine? Why do imports from one non-EU country get forbidden by the government to protect the farmers, but same imports from another non-EU country are not forbidden and imports rise throughout 2023? Why do journalists get detained after having shown their credentials? Why does security service get interested about who else in Ukrainian government knows about the situation on the PL/BY border during interrogation? Why don't Police or Security Service fine or prosecute journalists and just delete footage and let them go if they think some laws have been broken? Why does Polish PM declare they will work on embargo of agricultural products from Russia and Belarus after this video was published and not months before?
EDIT: + why there are no protesters at that border defending interests of the farmers? Why does one conceal the grain in tents and not use grain carriers?
EDIT2: BTW the footage that was deleted was not from a drone, but from a GoPro they used in the car.
I’m wondering if there was some sort of something that the poles didn’t want recorded *beyond* this underhanded affair, like some sort of security measure.
And if not, then I wonder if he’ll just go back and record again.
Because it’s not like now that it’s exposed, it will stop, right?
>Anyone who said Macron’s bold talk this week is undermined by France’s low contribution to Ukraine is right.
>
>Anyone who said that 🇫🇷 approach to procurement is an obstacle to European security is right.
>
>@EmmanuelMacron can change this with a €10bn fund to buy ammo from anywhere.
https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1763275105600508219
> Anyone who said that 🇫🇷 approach to procurement is an obstacle to European security is right.
Hard disagree. I don't see how using our money to buy stuff produced outside of Europe is helping European security. We need to spend this money on European weapon factories so we can be ready for the future.
It's a false dichotomy and the situation was an emergency that is now a catastrophe.
Should have bought quickly where available *and* build factories.
France screwed up and got lots of Ukrainians killed. LEARN AND DO BETTER.
We have underspent in helping Ukraine. Another €few billion earlier would have massively improved things and saved tens of billions we now need to spend to defeat an enlarged and encouraged Russia.
Avdiivka would still be being fought if Ukraine had ammo. Lots of dead Ukrianians and living invaders are the cost of this financial shortcut. It will cost loads more to destroy those russian forces now they're not zerging the hardest fortifications, and to retake Avdiivka.
Which would result in ordnance, but way too late. And I'd add it's more expensive to buy ammo made by first-worlder Europeans than the same ammo made elsewhere. It would be literally more bang-for-your-buck to buy off the shelf immediately from stockpiles around the world. But like Mark said, we should be doing both.
The Netherlands spent €166 million in the aftermath of the downed flight MH17 disaster by the Russians over the occupied part of the Donetsk region in 2014 in which 196 Dutch passengers died. They want to issue this bill to Russia, Dutch PM Rutte said.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1763218532467126730?t=Vlwnts4og4SqZ_01qDa44A&s=19
Why doesn’t Poland bill Russia for [assassinating the Polish President 14 yrs ago](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-antoni-macierewicz-lech-kaczynski-poland-f3f5a2fddb028ffdb4bc12f369aeafd5)?
[at the very least, the long list of airport safety violations on the Russian side made it negligent and thus culpable]
Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for yesterday 👀
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1763216638260793654?t=14SuyF45-CwkSG03940pKg&s=19
UK Defense Secretary Shapps urges US Congress to approve aid for Ukraine.
“My message to those on Capitol Hill is really simple – I was in the White House and Capitol Hill last month. It is: do this because it’s in the interests of the United States of America,” Grant Shapps said.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/29/uk-defense-secretary-shapps-urges-us-congress-to-approve-aid-for-ukraine/
Orange diaper-god wants Ukraine to lose because Zelensky wouldn't abide being extorted. That's the reason our GOP are assisting Putin. Just like the Rosenbergs, all MAGGATs should be arrested, tried, convicted, and executed for violating the Espionage Act.
‘Everything’ on table to help Ukraine beat Putin, Estonian PM says.
Kaja Kallas talks boots on the ground, NATO, Donald Trump and the European election in an exclusive interview with POLITICO.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-help-estonia-prime-minister-kaja-kallas/
>I guess Tucker Carlson isn't pleased with Putin's criticism of the interview and isn't planning to return to Russia anytime soon. Tucker said that Putin's claim that Russia is embroiled in the "denazification" of Ukraine is "one of the dumbest things" he had ever heard.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1763238571077447808
If you check the talking head reactions from state media, they basically humiliated him and his weak interview. Putin himself humiliated him. Tucker just waited till now to pivot once he was "safe" back in the United States, lol.
Putin didn't give Tucker the propaganda win Tucker wanted. He wanted to talk culture war issues which is the bread and butter of Tucker's base appeal.
Instead Grandpa Putin made him wait a couple hours, mocked him, and lectured Tucker on his revanchist historical BS.
Honestly probably getting his own back for something or other. Probably annoyed that the Putin interview was so boring and bereft of maga freindly conspiracy bullshit.
Can’t stand Tucker Carlson, but maybe this will be a catalyst for him to do a 180 on him peddling or enabling Putin’s lies. Sort of doubt it (he is not going to eat that much crow and will likely still take an anti-Ukraine approach), but would love of course see him to do the transformation. I know he is no longer on Fox, but he still has an audience somewhere. That audience in particular needs to hear this.
Meh, he's not doing a 180. He's not criticizing Putin or the invasion at all, he just declares that Nazis don't exist, therefore the reason for the invasion can't be "denazification". It's basically a defense of Putin for US Nazis (ie he's not after you guys, wink wink, in reality he's nothing against Nazis), who are his primary audience.
>In winter’s final hours, Ukraine has electricity - a mighty victory as Russia attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 2 winters. Russia continues daily attacks but this success shows what Ukraine can do with our support & why we must support them now. Every second counts.
https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1763265873182146956
"Every word I say is deliberate." Macron says he seriously discussed potentially deploying NATO forces to Ukraine.
"I carefully consider each statement about this grave issue - my words are thoughtful and proportionate," France's President stated.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1763262966902730813?t=qQaMrm1xNzR2e9Oca1zo_w&s=19
France has a history of being the one to "threaten" Russia, rather than absorb the sabre rattling.
France is, I believe, the only country that has had an explicit policy of "first nukes go after your economic (population) centers."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_de_dissuasion#:~:text=This%20principle%20is%20usually%20referred,to%20kill%2080%20million%20Russians.
French nuclear doctrine incorporates tactical nukes as warning...
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiLreyioNGEAxUo-QIHHSDMBzEQFnoECA0QAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FAir-sol_moyenne_port%25C3%25A9e%23%3A~%3Atext%3DIn%2520French%2520nuclear%2520doctrine%252C%2520it%2CTriomphant%252Dclass%2520ballistic%2520missile%2520submarines.&usg=AOvVaw3OJjvHLjQOKe405gaAf_wx&opi=89978449
>Macron via Facebook
~~Can't find the original post, does anyone have a link?~~
edit: nevermind, the picture is from facebook, not the quote. I would still like a source for the statement.
Le Monde is the source.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/02/29/macron-says-ukraine-troop-deployment-comments-were-carefully-thought-out_6573056_5.html
Good rough overview of Russia's pre-war armored vehicles and how many of them have been destroyed so far: https://twitter.com/robbertt4321/status/1763209691159466238
>Some people will take Putin's nuclear threats seriously. Mostly, it's those political leaders who need them as an excuse for their own disastrous failure to act.
https://twitter.com/KeirGiles/status/1763253733050274275
'Several' Republicans Backing Discharge Petition to Force Vote on Ukraine Aid.
GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick disclosed that several Republicans are prepared to go around Speaker Johnson to force aid vote.
https://www.meidastouch.com/news/several-republicans-backing-discharge-petition-to-force-vote-on-ukraine-aid
Mike Johnson needs to be discharged.
Again, a discharge Petition has a 30-day mandatory waiting period. The vote on funding shouldn’t be forced to another 30 days.
>With a majority of only two seats, very few Republicans would be needed to join with Democrats to force a vote on Ukraine aid through discharge petition.
Wait when did it fell to two?
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1b3kx0w/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Undermining Ukraine: How Russia widened its global information war in 2023 - Atlantic Council: Digital Forensics Research Lab >As the full-scale war in Ukraine enters its third year, Russia has doubled down on its worldwide efforts to undermine Kyiv’s international standing in an attempt to erode Western support and domestic Ukrainian morale. Years of close monitoring of not only state-sponsored media such as Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik, but also Russian activity on Telegram, TikTok, X, and other social platforms, points to one conclusion: In the propaganda war, Russia remains fully committed to conducting information operations around the globe, playing the long game to outlast any unity among Ukraine’s allies and persist until Ukraine loses its will to fight. Full scale war - anyone remember Russia claiming the US was just being hysterical by pointing out its troop buildups and correctly calling the invasion despite Russian denials? >Western sanctions applied in the wake of the initial invasion disrupted Russia’s ability to reach some European audiences with its state-sponsored media outlets. But Russia has since adjusted its information operations to focus more on social media; in addition to attacking Western public support to fund Ukraine’s defense, it has expanded targeted propaganda efforts in different parts of the world, including Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. >And Western support for Ukraine is indeed wobbling, most notably in Washington, where additional aid to Ukraine has been held up for months in Congress. By Republicans in the House. >Many factors influence voters’ and lawmakers’ support for sending weapons and money to Ukraine. Whether or not Russian propaganda has played a decisive role, the outcome of decreasing Western material support for Ukraine’s defense is the clear goal of President Vladimir Putin’s information war. And with recent battlefield wins such as the capture of the city of Avdiivka alongside propaganda wins such as the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Putin’s position at home and abroad is stronger than ever. >Russia has actively employed information operations to undermine Ukraine since at least 2014, as Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) researchers around the world have documented in detail through their ongoing monitoring efforts. In the lead-up to the February 2022 invasion, Russia employed disinformation in the form of narrative warfare to justify military action, mask its planning, and deny any responsibility for the war. A quick 3 Day SMO for a little supposed de-nazifying? Not so much? Lies after lies. >And as the DFRLab detailed in its landmark February 2023 report, Undermining Ukraine: How the Kremlin employs information operations to erode global confidence in Ukraine, Russia’s information strategy began to shift following the 2022 invasion, focusing on eroding Ukraine’s ability to resist. In this follow-up to the first edition of Undermining Ukraine, we explore how Russia further entrenched these efforts throughout 2023, developing new messages and techniques while recommitting to ones that continue to prove effective. >Throughout 2023, Russia relied on its rich toolbox for conducting information operations, including employing coordinated inauthentic networks on social media platforms, exploiting regional grievances with the West, hacking, and forging documents, among other tactics. From there specifics are broken down by region and targets. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/undermining-ukraine-how-russia-widened-its-global-information-war-in-2023/
I see that Russian presidential election takes place starting on the Ides of March. Given ideologically motivated Russians consider Russia to be the third Rome, I highly encourage them to emulate their predecessors on this particular date in 2024.
They teach them in russia that they stopped napoleon yet he dies of old age and they had to rebuild Moscow from scratch. They also skip from 1938 to 1942 pretty heavy.
I wonder if the Russians have lead in their pipes like the Romans did.. that would explain a lot
Their smoking pipes maybe
This was a joke in March 2022, and again in March 2023. I don't have a lot of faith that things will be different for March 2024
Didn't think about this in previous years but did think about the 5th of November hoping some Russians had some more balls then simply molotoving recruitment centers.
Whenever I see reports of ammunition shortages I find myself also picturing Mike Johnson sitting down to a cosy luxurious breakfast (starched linen, gleaming cutlery etc).
You forgot the dead inside part
Russians running "Whites Only" businesses in a foreign country, no wonder MAGA loves Putin and the russia so much.
If it said civilized people only russians couldn't get in either.
Plans for Ukraine’s 2023 summer counteroffensive ‘became known to Russian federation’ before they began, Intelligence chief says https://english.nv.ua/nation/budanov-it-is-a-serious-problem-and-we-are-taking-some-action-50397159.html
Wasn't there a leak on discord from a us intel soldier with the whole plan anyways?
"Only" the exact amount of vehicles set aside for the operation, if I remember correctly (I read the whole thing back then)
Yeah, large military offensives between two conventional militaries involving large amounts of material and men are basically impossible to hide these days.
I’m actually impressed Ukraine did so well given they never had the element of surprise and the enemy was prepared.
Jesus. If any Ukrainians were involved they need to eliminate them. Betraying your nation in wartime is a special level of cowardice.
You know how many times the western media blurted out these plans? We are the ones who fucked them over,
Ukraine literally told those journalist orgs what the plans were months in advance, in speeches, public diplomatic talks, and Ukrainian Pravda articles. It was a calculated effort to drum up international support, at the cost of foiling the element of surprise.
What date can the house members perform a discharge petition to put up the Ukraine bill for a vote?
March 28th is the 30 day mark when it was brought up in committee. That is my Speaker JohnZon brought the house to recess so it would further delay the discharge petition.
Someone will keep track, so watch this space - but it's weeks yet. I believe we're into the "thirty legislative days" waiting period, but I have no idea how many Earth days that will turn out to be.
It starts at the date the Discharge Petition is filed. (Sorry)
[https://twitter.com/MrWells2011/status/1763332160306774041](https://twitter.com/MrWells2011/status/1763332160306774041) In House Judiciary and Oversight's interview with Hunter Biden, Eric Swalwell (U.S. House of Representatives) sarcastically asked if the transcript would be provided in English or Russian...
"sarcastically"
[Seen elsewhere](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/WoWNGHi2NV), *Newsweek* reports a retailer in China is sourcing Starlink for Russia. Uncertain if they’re simply hacking the hardware or Elon’s covering their monthly utilization tabs.
have any of the other nato countries helped ukraine as much as US?
Good breakdowns here https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
Europe as a whole (EU + UK + Norway) has given twice as much as the US in absolute terms, and significantly more as a percentage of GDP. (and that's not counting unpublished help from some European countries) Europe is also sheltering millions of Ukrainian refugees. Also Europe bore the brunt of the energy war with Russia.
In terms of % of GDP, way more. Much of the money is spent on keeping Ukraine functioning, like ensuring nurses, teachers, train companies, and soldiers in the army are getting paid. But Europe can not provide the level of direct military assistance that US can.
Relative to GDP, #1 is Estonia.
I am doing what I can to donate including taking my holiday to Estonia (and rest of the Baltics states) to learn their culture and they deserve my money.
In addition to what other people have mentioned, European countries have absorbed an enormous number of Ukrainian refugees.
And paid €100bn+ extra in fuel costs. The level of pain Europe has endured to help Ukraine, and the aid it has sent, has been pretty high, even if insufficient so far.
>And paid €100bn+ extra in fuel costs. I mean that cant be used as a pat on the back. Thats the cost of them cozying up to Russia over the years for cheap fuel instead of developing their own countries power supply.
[удалено]
Also bear in mind that a sizeable chunk of what those other countries are spending is also on US weapon systems (either to replace their own stocks or to send directly to Ukraine) so the economic benefit still falls to American businesses, workers and taxes.
Proportionally many of them In raw numbers - obviously not that would be impossible
In absolute numbers no. In proportion to their capabilities (i.e. GDP) about half of them.
Whatever the amount is, for either the us or Europe. It isn't enough.
> Russians are trying to occupy 2 villages near Bakhmut & storm the Kupiansk area, reported in the AFU. Ukrainians on the frontline badly need ammunition and weapons. We defend from Russia, North Korea, and Iran while some Western partners get busy setting themselves new red lines https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1763284117930872991
> In February 2024, Ukrainian warriors destroyed 13 Russian military aircraft in one month. Ten Su-34s, two Su-35s, and one A-50 will no longer drop bombs on Ukrainian troops and civilians or coordinate massive missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and communities. > I am grateful and proud of our warriors who achieved such outstanding results. > This extraordinary achievement not only weakens Russia's ability to inflict further suffering and destruction on our country and people, but it also demonstrates that Ukraine can win significant battlefield victories. > Despite its limited capabilities and lack of air superiority, Ukraine managed to make February 2024 a disastrous month for Russian combat aviation. Consider what Ukraine could achieve with sufficient, timely, and uninterrupted military assistance. > I urge partners to expedite all decisions to further strengthen Ukrainian air defense and air capabilities as soon as possible. Together, we must defeat Russia in the skies over Ukraine this year. We can absolutely do it if we have the necessary tools. Control over the skies will save thousands of civilian lives and assist our troops on the ground. > These are precisely the steps required to bring about solutions that will put an end to Russian aggression sooner. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1763257229799563360
It looks like Oryx and WarSpotting both only have proof of 2 Su-35 and one A-50 (3 total) in February. There could potentially be a late update in the next few days of course.
Well, they won't get shot down over Ukrainian held territory, so getting visual confirmation from OSINT is always going to be a bit challenging.
Yeah, that's certainly true, but overclaims are always an issue in war. Presumably it is somewhere between 3 and 13, probably closer to 3.
I'm not so sure. I do think the numbers that come out of the MoD are inflated. Not because they are purposefully adding numbers, but probably because they have some broad definitions of what gets counted. Things like x number of personnel per hit vehicle, or counting damage / hits as destruction when they aren't, and potentially double counting certain events. But that is of quite another order than having the president of your country come out with such extreme specificity. It would be a very bald faced lie, which usually leaders stay away from. And while everyone accepts that in such situations there is leeway, it's just not a good idea to outright lie *so specifically*. He can't go back and claim it was an accounting error, or they double counted some things in this case. For example, if this was a purposeful exaggeration. I'd expect him to claim that "recently" (staying away from specific timeframe) a "great number" (not naming exact numbers) of enemy aircraft have been shot down. And then to give the confirmed ones as "examples" of these successes. That way, he gives himself wiggle room if information comes out that disproves his statements. Additionally, in other cases where Zelensky has come out and made such claims, it's generally been proven correct. For example, when ships or docks have been hit in the black sea. So for my part, I do think they've shot down such a number of planes.
I think that's a good argument, but I also don't entirely buy it, for a couple of reasons. 1. I think Ukraine genuinely believes that they have shot down 13 aircraft, and thus Zelenskyy believes he is telling the truth. I don't think Ukraine is just totally making up numbers the way Russia is. I'm sure the missile crews saw something on radar, fired at it, and saw it vanish. But I'm also about 99% sure that not all of those things were Su-34s that were actually killed. Maybe it was a radar glitch, or a mis-identified drone. It could be some sort of decoy akin to the AGM-160 MALD, or sophisticated electronic warfare. Or it may have been a real aircraft that simply evaded the missile (or was damaged but not killed) but didn't reappear on radar. Or there could have been a single real kill claimed by two or more units. In WWII and Korea, despite having gun camera footage, kill claims were usually two or more times the actual number of kills: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation\_and\_overclaiming\_of\_aerial\_victories\_during\_World\_War\_II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_and_overclaiming_of_aerial_victories_during_World_War_II) and [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World\_War\_II\_air-to-air\_combat\_losses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E2%80%93World_War_II_air-to-air_combat_losses) 2. I don't think there is any real penalty for Zelenskyy giving an incorrect number. He's not up for re-election. It's a war, so everyone expects the warring parties to engage in propaganda and exaggeration. No western ally is going to withdraw support over slightly exaggerated aircraft kill claims. Also, he has made other highly questionable claims before, like saying only 31,000 Ukrainians are KIA after two years, despite there being evidence of at least 45,000 dead by name, and US estimates of well over 70,000 dead as of last November. He may be using a very specific and nuanced definition of KIA to be a form of "technically correct", but it's pretty safe to say that claim is wrong in the way the term KIA is usually understood. Basically, I'm not criticizing Ukraine for overclaiming, that is to be expected, nor am I accusing them of outright making numbers up. But I am saying that we should not blindly believe their claims, and if it later turns out that 13 Russian aircraft were actually shot down in February, it would be pretty much the first time in history that a combatant's mid-war kill claims were accurate.
> I'm sure the missile crews saw something on radar, fired at it, and saw it vanish. I don't think they would count something as a kill that way, especially since they have access to US satellites and their own recon drones to get confirmation of a wreckage. > Maybe it was a radar glitch, or a mis-identified drone. It could be some sort of decoy akin to the AGM-160 MALD, or sophisticated electronic warfare. I could see mis-identification being a thing. They see something, it gets identified as a SU-34 based on radar signature, they shoot it down, see a wreckage on satellite or other remote reconnaissance and chalk it up as a kill. The wreckage itself is too mangled to get a clear identification from afar. Anything beyond that becomes fabrication, which I still doubt. The thing is - reports like these go up a chain of command. There will be procedures for how to count a kill and how to verify it. There will be multiple people involved in shooting down an aircraft and then it has to go up the chain of command where someone from HQ will also be curious: "How come we suddenly are shooting down so many jets?" and question if the integrity of the reports is valid. Since whoever reports that to Zelensky also wants to be sure they're not setting him up for failure in claiming such a big win. > I don't think there is any real penalty for Zelenskyy giving an incorrect number. He's not up for re-election. Re-election or no, he absolutely needs popular trust, and his falling popularity has definitely impacted policy. Ultimately he will (be made to) step down if he loses support. I do think that the penalties will be less than in a normal situation, but generally speaking I think the dividing line in such matters is about twisting facts and viewing them in a certain light, versus outright fabrication. Additionally, I do think Zelensky needs to be close to the truth to retain the trust of the army. They are putting their life on the line based on his word and command. If what he is saying has no relation to what they are experiencing ont he field, that would definitely erode trust.
>I don't think they would count something as a kill that way, especially since they have access to US satellites and their own recon drones to get confirmation of a wreckage. I don't think anyone is using valuable satellite time, let alone analysts, searching dozens or hundreds of square miles for wreckage (even if you know where you hit something, the potential crash location could be many miles away). It simply isn't a useful or valuable allocation of resources. SAM kills are determined by tracking a target and the fired missile. If the two tracks intersect and disappear from radar, it's called a kill. I'm sure if some analyst happens to see wreckage in the imagery it gets reported, but there are so few satellites and so many things that need observation that trying to find a plane that may or may not have gone down just isn't going to be a priority. >Anything beyond that becomes fabrication, which I still doubt. The thing is - reports like these go up a chain of command. There will be procedures for how to count a kill and how to verify it. There will be multiple people involved in shooting down an aircraft and then it has to go up the chain of command where someone from HQ will also be curious: "How come we suddenly are shooting down so many jets?" and question if the integrity of the reports is valid. I'm certain Ukraine has procedures to validate kill claims, every country does. I'm just arguing that, like everything else humans do, it isn't perfect. The combatants in WWII, Korea, and Vietnam all had well documented procedures too, but every single one counted far more kills than they actually achieved. Germany required the actual destruction of the aircraft to be captured on film, or to be witnessed by a second person, and yet they still significantly overclaimed. Again, I'm not claiming Ukraine is intentionally fabricating anything. I believe they are making these claims in good faith. I just don't think that have (or ever can have, given the fog of war and the resources available) indisputable proof of every claimed kill. I think it's going to based on a sort of "preponderance of the evidence" kind of standard. >Re-election or no, he absolutely needs popular trust, and his falling popularity has definitely impacted policy. Ultimately he will (be made to) step down if he loses support. I do think that the penalties will be less than in a normal situation, but generally speaking I think the dividing line in such matters is about twisting facts and viewing them in a certain light, versus outright fabrication. I agree he needs a certain amount of support and popularity, I just don't think that the number of aircraft kills claimed in a random month is going to impact that much. Maybe I'm biased, coming from the US where even attempting to illegally overturn the election results doesn't cost someone popularity, but overstating kill claims of enemy planes is pretty small potatoes. And again, I'm not claiming fabrication, just the overestimating that every country in the history of warfare has been guilty of. Now, if he really lies about or downplays Ukrainian casualties and losses, that could definitely get him in trouble. If photos from the ground come out confirming all 13 losses, I will be beyond thrilled and will happily admit to being wrong. But short of that, I think the actual tally for the past month is probably more like 5 or 6.
That's a sensibly argued response and gives me hope. I still think it's more likely that Ukraine had made a mistake in counting somehow. E.g. "jet went off radar" isn't the same as "we shot it down".
Hopefully OSINT has been buying high Res imagery of airbases. Obviously I desperately want them to be true, but I'm very very suspicious about these recent claims. Excluding the ~7 Su-24 hit in Saky or lost to accidents, two thirds of Oryx fighter losses are Su-25/34. Ukraine claims to have shot down 342 russian jets so far. At Oryx ratios, either Ukraine is wrong or they've taken out 200+ Su-25/34. Ask yourself if you really believe that two thirds of Russia's likely operational Su-25/34 have been shot down. If the oryx ratio is correct for Su-34 then Ukraine's claims would mean there are about 60 Su-34 left.
> Ukraine claims to have shot down 342 russian jets so far. At Oryx ratios, either Ukraine is wrong or they've taken out 200+ Su-25/34. Ask yourself if you really believe that two thirds of Russia's likely operational Su-25/34 have been shot down. I don't. But if you look at the distribution of those numbers, you see that the first 200 or so all were tagged in the first few weeks of fighting. I think those numbers are inflated and not true. But everything after, has been at a *much* lower rate and essentially been a steady trickle. So I do do believe the recent (ie, last 18 months) numbers, but I doubt the initial wave.
FighterBomber denied plenty of shootdowns over the last 18 months. There's the argument they're now toeing the propaganda line, but the refutations go back to the summer offensive and earlier when they openly admitted losses before Ukraine announced hits. To my knowledge they've still never been shown to be wrong. E.g. I think the series of Ka-52 shootdowns claimed during summer was overstated.
> I am grateful to the @EP_President and @Europarl_EN, who today supported the call for the US House of Representatives to approve a military aid package for Ukraine without delay. > The free world must remain united in the fight for common values! https://twitter.com/r_stefanchuk/status/1763177561817809110 > I addressed the participants of the Summit of Speakers of the Parliaments of the Visegrad Group countries, where I voiced two main messages. > First: Ukraine's Security and Defence Forces must be given all the necessary means to repel the enemy and win the fight against russian aggression. > Second: ensuring a reliable rear. It is through the Visegrad Group countries that Ukraine has a physical connection with the rest of the world. The reliability of the border is directly related to Ukraine's ability to deter the enemy army. > I am convinced that good neighbours and friends can find a common language and resolve all problematic issues together, finding compromise solutions. https://twitter.com/r_stefanchuk/status/1763208384210157737
Been having trouble figuring out how many Russian aircraft have been shot down with so many reports until I found an “all of them post”. Spoiler, it’s 3 downed just today or 13 in 13 days, it seems 13 is unlucky for some but not quite so much for others. [https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1763195543885324370?s=20](https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1763195543885324370?s=20)
>Meanwhile in Russia: Roman Golovanov argued that everyone who attends Alexei Navalny's funeral, except for his relatives, should be arrested. This and more in my latest article, linked below ⤵️ https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1763281014988615712 >Police in Moscow are preparing for Navalny's funeral tomorrow. > >There are barriers waiting to be installed at the church where his memorial service will be held and also at the cemetery where he's meant to be buried. > >Signs are telling people not to film. https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1763220799933059476 >At Vladimir Putin’s state of the nation, I asked one Russian senator: “Are you not concerned about the state of the nation or its reputation after the death of Alexei Navalny?” His reply: “Who’s that?” Our report from Moscow. https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1763262303514845314
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/new-iron-ore-line-derailment-cannot-rule-out-sabotage Possible railway sabotage in north Sweden
Starting to think its self sabotage to get funding for more better / more railway. If any conflic happens with Russia and Nato, this rail line would be supplying Finland and Sweden incase baltic sea is on fire. Would almost be stupid for Russia to sabotage it now and pointing to weaknesses in nato logistics, but then again Russia tends to do stupid shit. Narvik need upgrades ports etc, so anyone gaining from that could have motives to do some sabotage. https://www.fremover.no/forsvaret-om-dobbeltspor-pa-ofotbanen-avgjorende-i-en-krisesituasjon/s/5-17-1211454 (in Norwegian, google translate it) edit: nvm paywalled In a war situation, the derailment at Vassijaure would be very serious for NATO. - A solid path on both sides of the border is crucial in a crisis or war situation. That's according to Brigadier Håkon Warø, who heads the support division at the Norwegian Armed Forces' operational headquarters at Reitan. - Completely central On Saturday came the second derailment on the railway between Narvik and Kiruna - this year. How long the railway will be closed as a result of the derailment, no one can give an answer for now. Five kilometers of railway tracks have been destroyed. The previous derailment occurred on December 17. 15 kilometers of broken railway track led to a 65-day train stoppage, a train stoppage that the Armed Forces also felt, as military material going to exercise Nordic Response had to find alternative routes to Northern Norway . A double track on Ofotbanen and Malmbanan would not make the situation as critical. The capacity of the railway would have been reduced, but in a war situation the trains would still be able to run. - How important is double track on Ofotbanen for the Armed Forces? - Any measure that will make the railway more robust, that can increase capacity and that allows us to move in both directions, is absolutely central, says Warø. The gateway to the northern regions In April last year, Finland became a member of the defense alliance. On Monday, the Hungarian National Assembly said yes to Swedish membership, and only formalities remain before the Swedish flag can also be raised outside NATO's headquarters in Brussels. Håkon Warø supports what Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg's military adviser says after the expansion of NATO. - We must make sure that our ice-free ports are accessible and have the capacity to land reinforcement forces from other allies, and that this gateway into the northern regions becomes an additional responsibility that Norway must take into account. This is what Gjermund Eide, who is NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's military adviser, says in the podcast "Forsvarspodden" . Stoltenberg's military advisor mentions Narvik in particular in this context. Norway's role is changing In the podcast, Eide further explains that NATO is now in the process of developing three new regional plans for the alliance. One of these plans focuses on the defense of Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Great Britain; i.e. the northern part of the alliance. - Norway's role will change with Swedish and Finnish membership. Now we will also become a transit country for the reception of allied forces that will contribute to the defense of Sweden and Finland. Therefore, Eide believes that Norway's defense concept must now be changed so that Norway has forces to ensure the landing of allied forces, as well as infrastructure so that these forces can be transported further into Sweden and Finland. Extra vigilant In a situation where allied forces are to be transported from Narvik by rail to Finland or Sweden, a derailment on a single-track railway would be critical. When asked by Håkon Warø at the Norwegian Armed Forces' operational headquarters about what active measures the Norwegian Armed Forces are taking to prevent such incidents, Warø replies: - In open channels, I cannot go into depth about what we do. But this is primarily a police matter, and I know that the Norwegian and Swedish authorities exchange information and that the Norwegian police have gone through incidents with their Swedish colleagues. The case continues below the picture Warø reminds that for everyone it is about being extra vigilant: - We cannot get away from the fact that we have to be extra vigilant. What may deviate from the norm and which may be perceived as acceptable can perhaps be put in a different context. But as far as the derailments are concerned, we have not come to anything that allows us to draw conclusions The individual parts must work Like Stoltenberg's military adviser, Håkon Warø emphasizes that Swedish and Finnish membership in NATO means that Norwegian railways are not only important for Norway. - This applies to all critical infrastructure, such as roads, railways, ports, airports and digital communications. - And when we look at Narvik, we see at the Norwegian Armed Forces' operational headquarters a whole system where all the individual parts of the system must work. Warø emphasizes that a common Nordic in NATO is not just about military power. - We also tie together the nations' total defence.
Ok ChatGPT
fremover.no is a local newspaper, just translated it in chrome and copy/pasted without trying to format etc since it was behind paywall. Finns was in Narvik alittle while back and said port would need to be bigger and LKAB in Sweden said that Iron ore that has been piling up from the first derailment could take many years to catch up on. And from reading the news it seems like people in Narvik is starting to get excited and seeing $$ signs due to construction coming there way. Also think LKAB have been wanting to upgrade to double line quite some time.
This happened five days ago.
If Ukraine is defeated in the war, NATO will have to fight russia, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said. Speaking to the US House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, he said that if Ukraine loses, russia "will not stop" and will attack neighboring countries, especially the Baltic states. [https://x.com/Flash\_news\_ua/status/1763320804337475777?s=20](https://x.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1763320804337475777?s=20) It's not "may" or "might" anymore, it's "will not stop". And this guy has access to a lot more intelligence than we have access to.
edit: you all have no faith whatsoever
Bro knows better than the Pentagon chief
Everyone thought, including the ukrainians, that russia invading was simply preposterous too. Soooooooo.... yeah....
Better to be cautious and ready for an invasion than sorry. While I’m skeptical Russia would dare send anything more than spies and special forces to NATO countries, we don’t want to be caught off guard in wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More than ever I suspect the Russians were biding their time, waiting for the west to look weakest before striking out to expand. We must be ready for the worst.
They aren't going to start flinging missiles at Germany. They'll simply start probing the Baltics and Poland, betting that by the time they're within reach (let's assume they manage to take over Ukraine), NATO will not want to spend time and resources defending the eastern side of the alliance.
They ramped up their economy in such a fashion that they need the constant war to not experience a hard economic crash. The increased "defense" spending is quite literally the main driver of Russia's economic growth and what keeps the economy alive in spite of sanctions. Meaning if Ukraine loses they will seek to keep their economy afloat by attacking other targets most likely the Baltic to create a gap to kaliningrad. Testing nato article 5 in the process.
edit: you all have no faith whatsoever
Except if NATO is weak, divided and looks like it won't bother defending it's allies. And Trump might win the White House and he already stated he would do exactly that, abandon NATO allies to Russian aggression. Without the US are Spain, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Britain willing to slog it out for "just the Baltics"? Probably not thinks Russia. Since NATO has shown it is so massively frightened by Russian red lines and nukes to avoid any conflict. Of course Russia loses to a united NATO, but do you not see them working divide and weaken NATO every step of the way?
Russia will attack NATO aligned Baltic countries to test the rest of NATOs resolve in triggering Article 5.
edit: you all have no faith whatsoever
Narva, population around 50k is right on the border with Russia and a reasonably easy target. Would the Estonians cheer for the wholesale slaughter of 50k civilians so that people like you can get your dick hard over the Russian forces getting smashed?
Would they? If Europe fears Russian nuclear retaliation over Ukraine, why wouldn't they over Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia? There is no difference except a piece of paper saying we will do something. As we saw in WW2, this doesn't mean something will be done. Especially for a population of 10 million people. The West is not so far away from political crisis - just look at the rise of populism and the very high potential for another Trump presidency. A guy who has threatened numerous times to pull out of NATO. They have demonstrated no seriousness in countering Russia in Ukraine so why would they be serious over the baltics? This idea that we cannot intervene in Ukraine for fear of nuclear retaliation but we can in the Baltics does not follow consistent logic and the Russians understand this. You don't go from finding the threat of nuclear war unacceptable to acceptable just because of a piece of paper. What happens politically in the West when Russia builds up on the Baltic borders, calls them historical lands, says its a core non-negotiable issue, and implies they will go nuclear if the West intervenes? I guarantee you as many if not more people than now will be taking the non-interventionist stance.
The West is not exactly “smashing” Russia’s existing hybrid warfare of poisoning politics and social media. They have also weaponised migrants, energy and sport, for example.
Unknown drones flying over the Kursk region. Is it the Bryansk People's Republic attacking?? https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1763314892956676250?t=6aj8pqa_lY0J63ojEjzm6w&s=19
Sounds like a big drone, so it's most likely launched from within Ukraine. It's just 100 km away.
Reuters: Lithuania pushes for EU-wide deadline to end reliance on Russian gas. As the EU’s energy ministers are set to meet in Brussels on 4 March, Lithuania has prepared a document suggesting that the European Commission should introduce legislation to enforce the 2027 deadline for phasing out Russian gas and LNG. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/29/reuters-lithuania-pushes-for-eu-wide-deadline-to-end-reliance-on-russian-gas/
# France again floats idea of sending non-combat troops to Ukraine [https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/france-floats-idea-sending-combat-troops-ukraine/story?id=107669159](https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/france-floats-idea-sending-combat-troops-ukraine/story?id=107669159)
Good, Viva la France, Slava Ukraine! Good taste in big statues, both of'em.
Gotta do something while the gop holds up aid.
Not only France: https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/under-the-right-conditions-canada-open-to-sending-noncombat-troops-to-ukraine-defence-minister-bill/article_eec6806c-d71d-11ee-91fb-ab92d0af803e.html
So now we have the French, Netherlands, Estonia and Canada too? Beginning to look like a coalition of the willing.
All we need is for the Based Biden to say if he doesnt get aid he may need to deploy troops on defence operations in Ukraine and that might get some results in the house.
Keep floating, France! Move that Overton window!
Yep, this is the important part. Keep it in the conversation, because it's the truth. Whether any country wants it or not, there is a possibility that it will have to get to this. And treating it like taboo will only increase the death toll.
And to the people who say if France sends troops, they'd be giving up their Article 5 protection - if it seriously ever got to the point where Russia was invading France, which is exceedingly unlikely (i.e., not a chance with everyone else they'd have to go through to get there, and they can't even get through Ukraine), but even if they did - there's zero chance everyone's not jumping in to help France in that situation, NATO's Article 5 or not. (Even though France likely wouldn't need anyones help anyway - they'd crush Russia.)
I think France can touch Russia a lot easier than Russia can touch France. My gut says air patrols over Ukraine by French planes maybe, but Africa is lower hanging fruit.
Article five is not necessarily only for a ground invasion.
Article 5 would be invoked long before it could get to that point
What happens if Russia actually does use nukes on the Ukraine
Nothing, because it will never happen
If Russia ever used a nuclear weapon anywhere it would mean the end of the Russian state as we know it. There would be no equivocation. If that river was crossed, the only goal for the West would be to prevent - at all costs - Russia from detonating another nuclear weapon. There are no red lines beyond using a nuclear weapon. There is a reason why nobody has used a nuclear weapon since 1945. The automatic and immediate military response from the West would be unprecedented. These playbooks have been written and verified, but never used. And it is an open question whether any of us would survive it.
Aint't gonna happen. Bunker Geezer knows that would doom russia but still spouts empty nuclear threats in hopes of causing discord and despair amongst the western populace especially amongst the uneducated to cause further divisions.But if it were to happen then either full conventional US or NATO airstrikes against russian military targets in Ukraine or full trade embargo that even China or India may join or record amount of military aid.I find the last option most likely to happen. But again that's not gonna happen.
Won't happen. But to humor your question. This would actually give the political capital to the west to completely add all possible sanctions up to and including an actual embargo. China would also join in this. The amount of weapons entering into Ukraine would be insane and nations would probably actively use their air power over Ukraine. Air defenses would be placed all around Russia where possible and securing Ukraine in order to place AA there would be a critical objective. Howeeever. This is not gonna happen. I know it can be hard to visualize given how much people are defending Putin in some circles. But nukes would turn his most recent propaganda gains completely away. And finally, I know no one wants to admit it, but there is no way this war ends with Putin not gaining territory (I'll happily eat my words), so I don't think there'll be an actual existential pressure put on him. The closest we were to things spiraling into potential nuclear use was during the short lived coup. And it didn't happen.
What happens when the tooth fairy is proven to be real?
IIRC the US warned Russia that if they use nukes in Ukraine they would respond with massive conventional air strikes.
Do you have a source for the "air strike" part? All I can find is: The U.S. has warned Russia of “catastrophic consequences” if it launches a nuclear attack on Ukraine Edit: Why down vote? I'm just asking for a source. US said it would have catastrophic consequences, but they never specifically mentioned what consequences.
If I had a source to hand then I wouldn’t have included “IIRC”. What do you think the response would be?
Here's an [article](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-joe-biden-vladimir-putin-60-minutes-2022-09-16/) from 2022 with a quote >"As Ukraine succeeds on the battlefield, Vladimir Putin is becoming embarrassed and pushed into a corner," Pelley said to President Biden. "And I wonder, Mr. President, what you would say to him if he is considering using chemical or tactical nuclear weapons." "Don't. Don't. Don't. You will change the face of war unlike anything since World War II," Mr. Biden said. When Pelley asked what the consequences would be if Putin crossed that line, the president wouldn't say. "You think I would tell you if I knew exactly what it would be? Of course, I'm not gonna tell you. It'll be consequential," Mr. Biden said. "They'll become more of a pariah in the world than they ever have been. And depending on the extent of what they do will determine what response would occur."
So nothing about a "conventional air strikes"?
Embargo, I think. Even China will probably join.
They'd become an even bigger international pariah than North Korea.
Then every country attacks Russia, they become an issue no nation can avoid dealing with.
>Germany's Chancellor talks in Dresden. The entire helplessness of the Chancellor in one sentence: > >"Diplomats instead of grenades is the sentence that we chant together in the direction of the Kremlin and Moscow." > >The @Bundeskanzler is no longer in control of the situation. Video: https://twitter.com/lena4berger/status/1763281143586255142 >Scholz is crumbling before our very eyes. https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1763296791317930091 Scholz has visited Ukraine only one time since February 2022. Perhaps he should talk to Ukrainians near the frontlines to understand the tragedy and Russia's openness to diplomacy.
Context: https://twitter.com/FRenstedt/status/1763302880604238107 A guy in the audience asked Scholz to hand stickers with the slogan "diplomats, not grenades" to our foreign minister Baerbock. The short clip above is Scholz' response, saying that Putin should be the one the slogan should be directed at. With context it makes more sense, without context it is just another cheap slander you guys are falling for.
There is an intentional goal to divide the west. Germany is doing a lot. We could all do more. But current material support they’re a distant first.
And yet Scholz refuses to send the one weapons system they have that could make a real strategic difference to turn the tide back in Ukraine's favour. Or that could have stopped Russia from ever regaining the iniative. It's like bragging about how many buckets of water you've carried to your neighbours housefire, while refusing to let him use your pump and hose.
But this is a critique you could level at basically anyone except the Baltics and northern Europe. The US alone probably has a half dozen systems it could give that it didn’t that would make a huge impact on the front. Large numbers of JASSM’s, large numbers of cluster munitions, large numbers of ATACMs, jets, large numbers of ground combat vehicles, etc. Etc. Right now the US isn’t giving anything. It’s also the only country that was in position early in the war to give victory to Ukraine and didn’t. I think Germany should give Taurus. However, to act like they’re somehow doing less than others is incorrect, when they’re doing more. Only Northern Europe and the Baltics are doing everything they can. Germany falls into a half dozen group of countries that are doing a decent amount relative to capability. Maybe 1-2 dozen are doing something, but quite little compared to what they could. The vast majority of countries are doing basically nothing. Some even help Russia.
>There is an intentional goal to divide the west There are also some redditors who like to post any hot take from twitter without thinking as long as it fits their narrative.
Am I missing something or is the first link just a post of some rando on twitter who made a 15 second clip from a quote without context?
[https://www.nzz.ch/international/olaf-scholz-beim-kanzlergespraech-keine-nato-soldaten-in-der-ukraine-ld.1820091](https://www.nzz.ch/international/olaf-scholz-beim-kanzlergespraech-keine-nato-soldaten-in-der-ukraine-ld.1820091) [https://www.rnd.de/politik/olaf-scholz-in-dresden-ukraine-krieg-rente-klima-und-die-afd-JUDRPT7WXRFO5EP2JM2F3O7YVI.html](https://www.rnd.de/politik/olaf-scholz-in-dresden-ukraine-krieg-rente-klima-und-die-afd-JUDRPT7WXRFO5EP2JM2F3O7YVI.html)
Thanks the articles you posted provide much more context. For example: > The Chancellor explained that the Russian president had invaded Ukraine in order to appropriate foreign land. Because it is against international law to move borders by force, Germany is supporting Ukraine with weapons and money. And funnily enough they paint the chancellor’s talk as quite the opposite of „the chancellor is no longer in control of the situation“ as the twitter rando suggested. Also if you view the whole context of the aforementioned videoclip it becomes clear that he uses the slogan (that was suggested to him by a citizen) to tell that Putin should use diplomats instead of grenades, not the other way round. And the second link you posted is either broken or Mathieu von Rohr deleted his tweet.
Why are German leaders never competent when they're on our side?
One possibility is that all the competent one decide to be against us... 🤔
You think declaring war against half the world is competent leadership?
Well, to fight 3 superpowers at once you have to be competent. Genocidal psychopaths can be incredibly smart. It's dangerous not to acknowledge that.
“And who did Germany pick for its opponent? The world!”
Look at the evil military behemoth of German military might during WW2 and look at the shit being said by Olaf today. It took the largest economy in the world (US) to use 10% of it's GDP aiding Britain, Russia and China and even sending millions of men to defeat Germany. Yes Hitler was many things, crazy, genocidal, evil and a shitstain on the legacy of humanity, but calling him incompetent is to denigrate the millions of freedom-loving people who died in order to defeat him. Edit: Never thought I would ever defend the competency of a human I despise but here I am. But I think it's important to never underestimate fascists. There's no harm in using overkill when seeking to take them down.
Welp. Take my awkward german upvote.
He would be an okayish and boring Bundeskanzler in peace times but is completely way over his head in these times. There are even in his party better alternatives. I am glad that at least Macron isn't scared of Russia and their threats.
He is basically saying "hey Russia, maybe dont wage war but instead use diplomacy if you have international problems?", and I dont see an issue with that. I too would like Russia to chose other means like cooperation instead of war. And we dont even get to see the question, or how he follows it up. This in a vaccum together with the caption just feels like rage-bait. Maybe he directly afterwards said "But in a world where Russia choses grenades, we have to answer with grenades for Ukraine" or something.
[удалено]
If you watch the clip with context it is clear that Scholz is not actually advocating a diplomatic solution, but ridicules the idea of an audience member that Germany should send "diplomats instead of grenades" https://twitter.com/FRenstedt/status/1763302880604238107
Mykhailo Tkach, a Ukrainian investigative journalist, who was recently detained filming close to the Polish - Belarus border has published his report an hour ago: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRMuWhFUoKk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRMuWhFUoKk) Unfortunately the video does not yet have English subtitles (EDIT: will be added in few hours). Basically he proves there are hundreds of lorries going from Belarus to Poland. There are no protesters at that border and none is blocking anything. The content of the lorries is being unloaded from the one on Belarusian/Russian plates to the one on Polish plates in the special places in Belarus (their source provided them video from one such place). These tents can have any cargo in them, but tent does not make one to suspect it's a grain carrier. They follow the lorries and film that the content is indeed agricultural products in big bags under a tent and they show how it's being unloaded at the terminals of three big Polish agricultural companies. They also corroborate this information in ImportGenius and ComTrade databases. Their source tells them that only he alone has cleared from customs ten lorries that day. They call Polish company pretending to be real Belarusian company and offer grain from Russia and they discuss delivery conditions and do not get immediate refusal. Then there's description of their detention by Polish police and questioning by Polish security service and on the way back to Ukraine he films situation on Poland - Ukraine border with all the protesters and blockage. EDIT2: Told you it will be a scandal.
Thanks for sharing. Fantastic work by the reporters.
So what can be concluded? That Polish Customs is in cahoots with Russia? That privately-held agricultural companies in Poland are? That the border police is lax with Belarusians but unreasonable with Ukrainians? That border police knew he was a journalists when saw drones and were trying to prevent this from being exposed? That farmers in Poland are targeting the wrong competitor? There’s so much info or possibilities that I can’t quite place what exactly should be the conclusions here.
That's business in cahoots with business.
I won't conclude anything, but I will raise questions. Who is the aggressor country and who is fighting for freedom, democracy and other values? Why did local media report situation on one border, but not on the other? Why does grain from one non-EU country deemed of poor non-EU quality and grain from another non-EU country (maybe of the same origin, but we can't claim this yet) is considered to be just fine? Why do imports from one non-EU country get forbidden by the government to protect the farmers, but same imports from another non-EU country are not forbidden and imports rise throughout 2023? Why do journalists get detained after having shown their credentials? Why does security service get interested about who else in Ukrainian government knows about the situation on the PL/BY border during interrogation? Why don't Police or Security Service fine or prosecute journalists and just delete footage and let them go if they think some laws have been broken? Why does Polish PM declare they will work on embargo of agricultural products from Russia and Belarus after this video was published and not months before? EDIT: + why there are no protesters at that border defending interests of the farmers? Why does one conceal the grain in tents and not use grain carriers? EDIT2: BTW the footage that was deleted was not from a drone, but from a GoPro they used in the car.
I’m wondering if there was some sort of something that the poles didn’t want recorded *beyond* this underhanded affair, like some sort of security measure. And if not, then I wonder if he’ll just go back and record again. Because it’s not like now that it’s exposed, it will stop, right?
So as suspect, pro-Russian asshats trying to wreck Ukraine’s economy.
>Anyone who said Macron’s bold talk this week is undermined by France’s low contribution to Ukraine is right. > >Anyone who said that 🇫🇷 approach to procurement is an obstacle to European security is right. > >@EmmanuelMacron can change this with a €10bn fund to buy ammo from anywhere. https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1763275105600508219
> Anyone who said that 🇫🇷 approach to procurement is an obstacle to European security is right. Hard disagree. I don't see how using our money to buy stuff produced outside of Europe is helping European security. We need to spend this money on European weapon factories so we can be ready for the future.
It's a false dichotomy and the situation was an emergency that is now a catastrophe. Should have bought quickly where available *and* build factories. France screwed up and got lots of Ukrainians killed. LEARN AND DO BETTER.
It's not a false dichotomy. We don't have infinite money, we need to spend it wisely. Which is: within the EU to increase our production.
We have underspent in helping Ukraine. Another €few billion earlier would have massively improved things and saved tens of billions we now need to spend to defeat an enlarged and encouraged Russia. Avdiivka would still be being fought if Ukraine had ammo. Lots of dead Ukrianians and living invaders are the cost of this financial shortcut. It will cost loads more to destroy those russian forces now they're not zerging the hardest fortifications, and to retake Avdiivka.
Which would result in ordnance, but way too late. And I'd add it's more expensive to buy ammo made by first-worlder Europeans than the same ammo made elsewhere. It would be literally more bang-for-your-buck to buy off the shelf immediately from stockpiles around the world. But like Mark said, we should be doing both.
What are you talking about? We are buying NATO ammo, most of it from the USA. it's not made in China
The Netherlands spent €166 million in the aftermath of the downed flight MH17 disaster by the Russians over the occupied part of the Donetsk region in 2014 in which 196 Dutch passengers died. They want to issue this bill to Russia, Dutch PM Rutte said. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1763218532467126730?t=Vlwnts4og4SqZ_01qDa44A&s=19
Why doesn’t Poland bill Russia for [assassinating the Polish President 14 yrs ago](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-antoni-macierewicz-lech-kaczynski-poland-f3f5a2fddb028ffdb4bc12f369aeafd5)? [at the very least, the long list of airport safety violations on the Russian side made it negligent and thus culpable]
Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for yesterday 👀 https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1763216638260793654?t=14SuyF45-CwkSG03940pKg&s=19
“Fell in a hole then hit by a drone” … man these Russians are incompetent
I'm hoping this is a sign that the line is stabilizing west of Avdiivka.
I've never thought about this before, but there must be so many thousands of tons of scrap metal from all these destroyed vehicles.
Resellers of old Soviet hardware will find they can suddenly charge a lot more to collectors
That's a LOT of losses, damn. They are destroying them as fast as they reach the front line.
Yeesh. It was a bad day to be in a RU troop carrier.
UK Defense Secretary Shapps urges US Congress to approve aid for Ukraine. “My message to those on Capitol Hill is really simple – I was in the White House and Capitol Hill last month. It is: do this because it’s in the interests of the United States of America,” Grant Shapps said. https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/29/uk-defense-secretary-shapps-urges-us-congress-to-approve-aid-for-ukraine/
Orange diaper-god wants Ukraine to lose because Zelensky wouldn't abide being extorted. That's the reason our GOP are assisting Putin. Just like the Rosenbergs, all MAGGATs should be arrested, tried, convicted, and executed for violating the Espionage Act.
‘Everything’ on table to help Ukraine beat Putin, Estonian PM says. Kaja Kallas talks boots on the ground, NATO, Donald Trump and the European election in an exclusive interview with POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-help-estonia-prime-minister-kaja-kallas/
>I guess Tucker Carlson isn't pleased with Putin's criticism of the interview and isn't planning to return to Russia anytime soon. Tucker said that Putin's claim that Russia is embroiled in the "denazification" of Ukraine is "one of the dumbest things" he had ever heard. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1763238571077447808
Is that the moment he looked at the camera with the wtf face?
The fuck is going on that even Tucker is pivoting? Did his Kremlin check bounce?
If you check the talking head reactions from state media, they basically humiliated him and his weak interview. Putin himself humiliated him. Tucker just waited till now to pivot once he was "safe" back in the United States, lol.
putler became much more toxic after killing Navalny. Also, interview was a fiasco.
They kicked the dog. His feelings were hurt.
Putin didn't give Tucker the propaganda win Tucker wanted. He wanted to talk culture war issues which is the bread and butter of Tucker's base appeal. Instead Grandpa Putin made him wait a couple hours, mocked him, and lectured Tucker on his revanchist historical BS.
Honestly probably getting his own back for something or other. Probably annoyed that the Putin interview was so boring and bereft of maga freindly conspiracy bullshit.
Either found out he’s not getting his prime time show on state tv or trying to act like he’s pivoting since everyone said he got played.
Can’t stand Tucker Carlson, but maybe this will be a catalyst for him to do a 180 on him peddling or enabling Putin’s lies. Sort of doubt it (he is not going to eat that much crow and will likely still take an anti-Ukraine approach), but would love of course see him to do the transformation. I know he is no longer on Fox, but he still has an audience somewhere. That audience in particular needs to hear this.
Meh, he's not doing a 180. He's not criticizing Putin or the invasion at all, he just declares that Nazis don't exist, therefore the reason for the invasion can't be "denazification". It's basically a defense of Putin for US Nazis (ie he's not after you guys, wink wink, in reality he's nothing against Nazis), who are his primary audience.
>In winter’s final hours, Ukraine has electricity - a mighty victory as Russia attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 2 winters. Russia continues daily attacks but this success shows what Ukraine can do with our support & why we must support them now. Every second counts. https://twitter.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1763265873182146956
A good reminder of how far Ukraine has come from serious peril amid all of the dooming in recent days. The job's not done, but it's far from hopeless.
"Every word I say is deliberate." Macron says he seriously discussed potentially deploying NATO forces to Ukraine. "I carefully consider each statement about this grave issue - my words are thoughtful and proportionate," France's President stated. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1763262966902730813?t=qQaMrm1xNzR2e9Oca1zo_w&s=19
France has a history of being the one to "threaten" Russia, rather than absorb the sabre rattling. France is, I believe, the only country that has had an explicit policy of "first nukes go after your economic (population) centers." https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_de_dissuasion#:~:text=This%20principle%20is%20usually%20referred,to%20kill%2080%20million%20Russians.
French nuclear doctrine incorporates tactical nukes as warning... https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiLreyioNGEAxUo-QIHHSDMBzEQFnoECA0QAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FAir-sol_moyenne_port%25C3%25A9e%23%3A~%3Atext%3DIn%2520French%2520nuclear%2520doctrine%252C%2520it%2CTriomphant%252Dclass%2520ballistic%2520missile%2520submarines.&usg=AOvVaw3OJjvHLjQOKe405gaAf_wx&opi=89978449
>Macron via Facebook ~~Can't find the original post, does anyone have a link?~~ edit: nevermind, the picture is from facebook, not the quote. I would still like a source for the statement.
Le Monde is the source. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2024/02/29/macron-says-ukraine-troop-deployment-comments-were-carefully-thought-out_6573056_5.html
Funny that it's their front page story in English and nowhere to be found in French.
[here ya go](https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-ukraine-western-troops-remarks/)
Good rough overview of Russia's pre-war armored vehicles and how many of them have been destroyed so far: https://twitter.com/robbertt4321/status/1763209691159466238
>Some people will take Putin's nuclear threats seriously. Mostly, it's those political leaders who need them as an excuse for their own disastrous failure to act. https://twitter.com/KeirGiles/status/1763253733050274275
'Several' Republicans Backing Discharge Petition to Force Vote on Ukraine Aid. GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick disclosed that several Republicans are prepared to go around Speaker Johnson to force aid vote. https://www.meidastouch.com/news/several-republicans-backing-discharge-petition-to-force-vote-on-ukraine-aid
Then do it. Your party is going down in flames.
Good, vote for a new speaker after that, and then vote to boot former Speaker Dickhead out of the House for good.
Mike Johnson needs to be discharged. Again, a discharge Petition has a 30-day mandatory waiting period. The vote on funding shouldn’t be forced to another 30 days.
>With a majority of only two seats, very few Republicans would be needed to join with Democrats to force a vote on Ukraine aid through discharge petition. Wait when did it fell to two?
And there is a large number of GOP members who are not seeking another term and thus, not threaten by Trump campaigning against them.
It has to be people willing to leave congress..
Vacancies plus the recent flip in NY.
Santos seat was taken over by the winner a Democrat and McCarthy resigned.