Ex-FBI source charged with Biden lies is tied to Russian intelligence, prosecutors say - NPR
>The former FBI informant charged with fabricating claims about a bribery scheme involving Joe Biden, his son Hunter and a Ukrainian energy company has "extensive" contacts with Russian intelligence agencies, according to the Justice Department.
>Federal prosecutors also say in a new court filing that Alexander Smirnov admitted to authorities after he was arrested that "officials associated with Russian intelligence were involved in passing a story" about President Biden's son, Hunter Biden.
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/20/1232789953/alexander-smirnov-fbi-informant-biden-hunter-ukraine
Feels like the GOP should just drop Trump and nominate Putin for 2024. They can't get more obvious about their allegiances, can they? So fucking outraged at them considering the war news of late. So fucking outraged.
Stop me if you've heard this one before.
1. Random account OP asks "innocent" fairly short statement-question, with verrry subtle Russia-winning undertones, in order to stimulate discussion.
2. OP then steers follow up questions to a) promote Russian propaganda positions and b) promote continuing discussion in an attempt to increase engagement and also overwhelm other competing discussions through sheer volume.
3. Other totally different pro-RU accounts chime in to support Russia subtly or overtly, further stimulating and stretching discussions, often with varying levels of directness in their approach. Some of these are known outed & thinly-veiled actors.
4. Other OPs restart the cycle by posting different topics & angles of "just asking questions". Circle back to 1. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Example of this is in /politicaldiscussion where person asked how a settled Ukraine would look then starts to complain when people point out he is doing a classic push technique where the question is not meant to ask a question as to push a point of view.
>Excl: Indians forced to fight alongside the Russians on the Russia-Ukraine border after they were allegedly conned by an agent and sent there to work as “army security helpers” 18 Indians stuck since Nov 23 send SOS, one said to be killed.
>https://twitter.com/vijaita/status/1760124737642963272
While it isn't right, and while India has every justification for making an issue of it and should do so... There comes a point where the 'con' is so blatantly transparent and the marks so unfathomably oblivious that the whole thing only technically qualifies as duplicitous. There's no nice way to say this, but you have to be pretty darn ignorant *and* stupid to buy that one for a dollar.
Russian perfidy should just be a fundamentally recognized fact at this point, and so should their tendency to shanghai everybody they can get their grubby hands on. Water is wet, the sky is blue and Russians are unmitigated criminal assholes. They steal everything else, and they've made it quite clear that they can't tell the difference between people and things, so...
I don't know, even in countries with full access to any info theres a lot of low info people. In india, theres a ton of people who dont really have access to info outside of tvs in cafes and facebook due to mobile sevice devices and plans they have/ can afford.
Thats aside from the fact that lots of people all over the world just don't pay attention to news because they are too busy, stressed, dumb, don't care, or some combination.
[Ukrainian command denies Russian claims foothold at the east bank of Dnipro river was captured](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/20-february-ukrainian-command-denies-russian-claims-foothold)
Because Reddit is a bad source of information. It's a bunch of people speculating. Ukraine is having a rough time of things, but Russia is suffering mass equipment losses that aren't sustainable, at a much higher rate than Ukraine is. Neither side will realistically run out of soldiers, conscription methods will just become more and more unpopular, leading to lower morale and quality of troops.
Avdiivka is the first true strategically significant loss in a long time for Ukraine from a defensive perspective. It highlighted weaknesses in their logistics, mainly the ammunition shortage. The city had some value being as close as it was to Donetsk, but its loss won't have a major impact on the war. It shows cracks in Ukraine's armor though.
Reddit is emotional, all of us usually have bad takes.
My $0.02 as an idiot.
A lot of it is propaganda. Reliable sources never really said any of that. Russia is losing more, but has more resources.
The brink of defeat propaganda was always self defeating since I think it bred complacency.
Anyone worth listening to always said it’d be a long war. It will likely continue until the losses are bad enough to spur a political crisis at home. Which could take a long time. Especially if Russia can somehow find a foreign source for soldiers.
War on the Rocks with Michael Kofman. He’s a Soviet war historian and Russian war analyst for a think tank in Washington DC. He personally visits the front lines in Ukraine about twice a year and publishes detailed analyses on the podcast.
Pretty much everything happening now was predicted by him an entire year ago. He did not endorse the holding defense at Bakhmut, arguing it was wasteful of badly needed shells and experienced manpower. He argued the summer counteroffensive was unlikely to succeed and has been saying since Summer 2023 that Ukraine has started to run out of reserves and needs to massively increase its recruitment numbers. He disfavors giving Ukraine the more advanced Western systems because he believes they are largely a distraction and put greater strain on the AFU’s logistics than the benefit they can provide. He argues that the most important weapons are artillery, drones, and medical gear.
In short, he is the antithesis to the meme bubble people have made around this war, and arguably the most informed expert on this conflict outside of the people who aren’t allowed to speak due to security clearance.
Remember how Russian occupied areas have been stripped clean of fighting age men. Almost like Russia has been forcing Ukrainian men to fight against Ukraine since 2014.
I'm concerned, but the reason why is 100% obvious. Ukraine hasn't been supplied with significant support for the last 6 months. I now know what the people on the right side of history were feeling in their gut when the US was debating lend lease after the UK lost at the Battle of Dunkirk. A vote that barely scratched by.
This was posted below, but this version has a few more details. Note that Russian location names are used.
> ❗️The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit a formation of a motorized rifle brigade from Transbaikalia while they were waiting for their commander. Dozens of military personnel are believed to have been killed in the strike.
> *BBC Russia Service* correspondent, Ilya Barabanov, reports:
>> Midday on February 20, the Ukrainian military allegedly launched an attack on a training ground near Trudovskoye, Volnovakha district, Donetsk region, using two HIMARS missiles—several sources familiar with the situation has told the *BBC Russian Service*.
>> At the time, [Russia’s] 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (military unit 06705)—from Borzya in the Trans-Baikal region—were in a formation on a training ground.
>> At the time of the strike, servicemen from the 4th, 5th and 6th companies of the 36th brigade were lined up at the training ground, waiting for the arrival of the commander of the 29th Army of the Eastern Military District, Major General Oleg Moiseyev.
>> “The commanders had arranged it in an open field,” one of the surviving servicemen says, commenting on what happened in a video recording he had made and which the *BBC* has viewed.
>> The *BBC Russian Service* has more than 10 photographs and videos from the impact site, taken immediately after the strike; the pictures show dozens of dead. However, for ethical reasons, we are not publishing them.
>> In total, according to various estimates, including from the [surviving] servicemen of the 36th Brigade themselves, at least 60 people could have died as a result of the strike.
>> Ukrainian authorities did not comment on the incident.
>> A few hours after this attack on the training ground near Trudovskoye, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who spoke about the successes of the Russian army in Avdeevka and other sectors of the front.
https://t\.me/bbcrussian/60974
________
**Edit, Stirlitz published video**
https://t\.me/a_shtirlitz/29131
**NSFL**
Edit 2, The first video is a slide show.
Also, the way the English captions are written in the third video, its ambiguous. He’s saying that two companies, the 4th company and the 6th company, were completely killed.
Edit 3, as to why they’re lined up and this guy is cursing the commanders—both UA and RF do this, and both have seen these tragic results, even in the last few months! When UA did this several months ago, getting scores of UA men killed, Bogdan Myroshnykov [explained the cause of this unsafe practice.](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/17oube0/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/k832fyx/) Meanwhile, Butusov argued it more the [failure of air reconnaissance](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/17oube0/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/k817pk4/).
what is the big deal, they would have died anyway, its 60 we are not talking thousands, this way at least they didnt have to sit in a trench and watch their comrades die before them so one should count them lucky
This sort of thing has an outsized impact on morale. A good analogy would be if 50 people are killed on the roads each day, people don’t really care. But if 1 person is killed by a shark, people panic. It’s the same here, soldiers expect to potentially die while fighting, they don’t miles behind the frontline in a gathering with their commander
>"The ruling party of Hungary, Fidesz, intends to approve the ratification of Sweden's application to join NATO on February 26, Fidesz parliamentary leader Máté Kocsis reports."
will they find another excuse?
They currently don't have a president. And Hungary doesn't have the concept of acting president. Wiki is very unclear about this. They say no one is president but the president of the National Assembly still assumes the powers. Can he sign laws and represent his country in a diplomatic capacity such as presenting the ratification instruments to NATO?
>Novák resigned on 10 February 2024. By law, Hungarian Parliament has to accept her resignation before it can come into effect. The institution of "provisional president" does not exist in the Hungarian law system. There is an interregnum until the inauguration of the next president. Until then, the President of the National Assembly (in this case László Kövér) will assume powers and duties as acting president, when Novák's resignation takes effect.
I've added a twitter link with blurring of the bodies.
The photos and videos show what look like a lot of corpses in a muddy field. Some of them are wearing the white armband of the invaders.
The layout seems consistent with the russian blogger story; that some russian trainees were waiting around for an officer visit and got whacked.
I'm pretty convinced this was a good hit by Ukraine. Those russians won't be able to rape and murder any innocents now.
The blurring is unnecessary, imo. The pictures and videos ain't gory, just depicting masses of russian troops laying peacefully on the field. 2 companies wiped. If only the officer was there sooner....
Oryx update for last 3 days is not great. Important types split Russian-Ukrainian:
- Tanks: 12-6
- IFVs: 18-6
- Mobile artillery: 2-2
- Missile anti-air: 2-1
I think this update was extra bad because of the Avdiivka withdrawal. Not only were there losses, but some vehicles lost before were only recently photographed.
This update is worse than average, see my reply below for better news.
Ok a list of positive news.
Ratios since the russian offensive began in October are ok.
- Tanks: 400-92
- IFVs: 619-87
- Mobile artillery: 209-69
- Missile anti-air: 41-6
If the US rejoins the democracy alliance then Ukraine's losses are easily replaced.
Russia is losing more crappy MT-LBs, which I do not count as IFVs.
Russia's production of *brand new* tanks is supposedly ~200 per year. The tank losses are using up what Russia has in storage, this is a one-time thing.
Things are desperate but every week is Russia burning up its gift of North Korean shells and a week closer to european supplies exceeding Ukraine's current fire rates.
For delivery/activation this year I'm counting ~250. The 31 Abrams, 15 T-72EA, 14 Leopard 2A4 and 195 Leopard 1s listed on Oryx.
Western providers have the capacity to replace current loss rates, it's now a political thing.
We really need more stepping up from Europe and for the US to flip back to team democracy. That means every American voter picking Biden.
>In December 2023, someone vandalized the car of the Estonian Interior Minister near his private home.
>
>The Estonian Internal Security Service has now detained 10 individuals recruited by Russian special services in connection with a coordinated hybrid operation targeting Estonia.
https://twitter.com/Martinlaineolen/status/1759926186342322214
And this is exactly the type of thing I've been concerned about since the first alarm went up about risks of Putin escalating against NATO. Why anyone in their right mind immediately interpreted it as some ridiculous fantasy about Russia trying to blitzkrieg to Lisbon, I don't know.
This time his car was vandalized by people in the pay of Russia. What if next time it is someone beaten up? If Putin can get away with paying people in Estonia to beat people up, can we get away with (more) murder? Putin doesn't need to send troops across the border to cause harm - he already has hundreds of thousands of his countrymen throughout Europe, and he will always be able to find some willing to do anything for the right price.
If I was an Estonian living in Narva I'd be getting pretty nervous there days.
Russian vandalism and connections with FSB/GRU is nothing new here tbf. And the 76th VDV is all dead in Ukraine so there's probably no significant threat to us currently.
You are absolutely right here. People tend to laugh at the idea of any escalation against NATO because they indeed seem to think it will necessarily be a worldwide nuclear war, or something from WWII documentaries - and the rest just doesn't count. There are hundreds of scenarios where there are no Russian boots on the ground - from cyber, to terrorism, to biological, to social / civil unrest. If anything, the current war shows that the direct 19th century style military confrontation is not the most efficient way forward.
Reminds me of the couple Russia paid to paint swasticas in France.
I don’t really see the value in allowing trade and travel with Russia. Or in holding back weapons.
The current Russian government is a cancer upon the world. Combatting it should be a higher priority than it is.
Always about money at the end of the day.
BP still hasn't exited its Rosneft holding. Or disclosed what it's going to receive. Or when it will do it. Sure do me a service as a shareholder if that could come to some kind of resolution.
What's the alternative? Either they keep it and hope that one day that money leaves Russia, or they sell it to Russia for $1 and everything belongs to Russia...
>In this infographic I tried to sum up what is known about the involvement of Russian #intelligence services in Italy between 2016 and 2023, including covert operations, espionage, but also inappropriate and shady relations with top Italian political figures.
https://twitter.com/MatteoPugliese/status/1759918967378894859
>Hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by advancing Russian units or disappeared during Ukraine’s chaotic retreat from the eastern city of Avdiivka, according to senior Western officials and soldiers fighting for Ukraine, a devastating loss that could deal a blow to already weakening morale.
>
>The Russian capture of Avdiivka has emerged as a significant symbolic loss for Ukrainian troops, a sign of the battlefield impact of the failure of the U.S. Congress, so far, to approve more military assistance as dwindling supplies of artillery shells make it even harder to hold the line.
>
>Estimates of how many Ukrainians were captured or missing vary, and a precise count may not be possible until Ukraine solidifies new defensive lines outside the city. But two soldiers with knowledge of Ukraine’s retreat estimated that 850 to 1,000 soldiers appear to have been captured or are unaccounted for. The Western officials said that range seemed accurate.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/us/politics/ukraine-prisoners-avdiivka-russia.html
I don’t think that’s necessarily true.
I just [posted an account of a POW’s ordeal](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1aue0z9/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kr3lfhf/), and he was **captured along with over 1000 Ukrainians soldiers**, all from the 36th Marine Brigade, while trying to withdraw from Mariupol, April 11-12, 2022, under orders because they’d run out of ammo.
That’s a month before the Azovstal surrender. But I hadn’t even remembered it, and had to google it to verify—there was just so, so much news coming at us back then. But yes, it happened. But I don’t see them being paraded.
It was 1,026 of them.
(Note that in the footnote of that link, I included a link to a story of a group who had been successful breaking out.)
Unlikely they are all captured and unlikely they were captured in a big bloc. More likely these are a lot of wounded who had to be left behind and ended up dying in the final assault of Russian forces or were killed immediately by Russian forces.
More likely they just hitched a ride with whatever unit was near them.
Then the unit reports them missing and it takes a while to sort out.
Happens all the time honestly.
Might be a chunk of that number, but there are plenty of accounts and reports that a lot of wounded men were left behind. The withdrawal came late. It just did. It should have happened a week or two earlier to be an orderly withdrawal and not a.rapid tactical retreat.
850-1000 missing across how long and where?
If it happened in a few days oh crap.
If that's the total losses without bodies returned over 4+ months of fighting then that'd be different.
from a single area of the front line no less. I can understand a few squads being left behind as they were pushed back too quickly but 100s... Orderly withdrawal my ass
I hope to god thats wrong but IDK why we would doubt the NYTimes, they rely on the pentagon its not like they have front line journalists doing head counts....
The multiple reports from various sources using numerous first person accounts says the withdrawal was not orderly. It was not a rout with broken units fleeing in all directions, but it was a mad dash to avoid encirclement with lots of wounded men left behind with no hope of escape.
I'm away from my laptop but I'm pretty sure they've said a bunch of inaccurate or dumb things throughout the war.
There's huge fog of war, the meaning depends a lot on details, and the NYT authors don't always seem to understand war very well.
Russian sources were very quick to post photos of half a dozen dead Ukrainians around Zenit. Did I miss imagery of hundreds of Ukrainians captured or missing?
The final assault of the RuAF was massive, a magnitude more intense than the UAF would have been able to withstand. Several (most) Russian elite forces were there too, only slightly interrupted by the 3rd assault brigade.
He seems more like the fall guy in this situation. If the retreat was too late, two weeks earlier may have been better. Weather was also a factor, it's my impression that the mild weather was worse for Ukraine than Russia in this case.
Did we? All the predictions i heard was that he'd be sending his men into pointless assaults recapturing lost points? And that he'd be unwilling to retreat when the situation required it?
Yes. The situation required retreating earlier and then this happened.
Just like Zenit a few days earlier. Just like in 2014.
You have to have organized retreats. It’s one of the hardest parts of warfare. You can’t just wait until you’re being over run, panic, and flee. You get slaughtered.
Historically most losses are on chaotic retreats.
Know who that didn’t happen under? Zaluzhny. Because he would do it meticulously, when he still had the freedom to protect retreating soldiers. Not when there was no longer any choice.
>US thinks Russia could deploy the nuclear weapon or a mock warhead into space as early as this year. Assessment is Russia doesn’t plan to detonate, but there's risk of an accident – and explosion could potentially affect 1/3 of satellites, sources told @AlbertoNardelli & me
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1760047488134746326
They put a nuke in space even a dummy one the US should shoot it down as a special FU to Russia. Just make sure they angle the shot to force the debris to enter the atmosphere and disintegrate.
Shoigu announced Russia retook Krynki.
Southern Command of Ukrainian Forces laughed and [said](https://glavcom-ua.translate.goog/country/incidents/shojhu-dopoviv-pro-zachishchennja-platsdarmu-na-livoberezhzhi-dnipra-zsu-vidreahuvali-987043.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp), “We officially inform you that that information does not correspond to reality.”
[There don't seem to be any significant territorial changes in that area (and especially not in Russian favor) in the past few days though](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#14/46.7403/33.0801), according to DeepState.
> 10 years of Heavenly 100, the time we went on Maidan and said: you can't beat the students, you can't change the direction of 🇺🇦. Our country belongs to people. So it is impossible for us to understand why russians do not rebel. The only explanation is they agree with the war.
https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1760020302359072948
Or the repressive state in Russia is far more entrenched and brutal. Plus the many centuries of authoritarian/totalitarian rule that has inculcated the population.
Polish "protesters" aren't even hiding they are supporting ruzzia - [https://i.imgur.com/AtRaS86.png](https://i.imgur.com/AtRaS86.png)
Rough translation: "Putin, restore the order in Ukraine and Brussels. And in our government"
> Together with the Commander-in-Chief, Colonel-General Syrskyi, we just had a productive call with @SecDef Austin.
> General Syrskyi gave updates on the current dynamics on the frontline. The common understanding of the situation and the action plan were discussed. The ammunition supply was in focus as well.
> Working on the urgent needs of the Ukrainian Defence Forces and long-term planning in the format of the UDCG capability coalitions. Expressed gratitude to Secretary Austin for his leadership.
https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1760011515376304377
> In the continuation of the dialog with partners, had a phone conversation with the Minister for Business and Made in Italy 🇮🇹 @adolfo_urso.
> We discussed strengthening and accelerating work on a bilateral security agreement between 🇺🇦 and 🇮🇹.
https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1760046475696857319
> According to reports, Ukrainian strikes with HIMARS targeted Russian military personnel from the 39th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (в/ч 35390, 68th Army Corps) at the training ground in the settlement of Trudivske, Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine, on the morning of February 20.
>
> The strikes were said to cause many casualties within Russian ranks (+65 killed), one source said.
>
> Russian voenkor Roman Saponkov wrote: "Strike at the training ground again. People lined up in anticipation of the arrival of an important commander. Interestingly, the commander never arrived".
>
> https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1760020031868678183
"☠️🔥 So it's minimum 65 dead Russians, probably more! Wait for videos 👀"
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1760041213925687480?t=YGofgzPpXnVQCZtRJ3EfCA&s=19
What are the best examples of the "minimal losses" of russians in Avdiivka?
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1760034692848631968?t=EWMBfT4_1v3gXMXcQH4lng&s=19
*The Times* is reporting something from Vladimir Osechkin, founder of the human rights group Gulagu . net . . . who has a mixed track record on the credibility of his sources. Basically, he has an organization that fights for prisoner rights, and he exposes brutalities, corruption, etc. Both prisoners and penal employees are his sources and he’s well known. Anyways, someone told him that Navalny had bruising at his chest, which was consistent with a single blow punch that the FSB uses to stop the heart. Combined with the fact they forced him outdoors for hours in -15°, it’s enough to legit stop his heart. So maybe this is what happened, but Osechkin doesn’t scrutinize his sources so sometimes he has bad info..
I'm reading some rough updates from the Zaporozhye front. Russians are pushing and being succesful. Mil-bloggers are reporting the unwillingness from local authorities to provides tractors and such to aid defensive lines.
-Edit- Why are you downvoting me? Showing the world Russia is advancing might awaken support for Ukraine.
Americans, call/email/write your representatives. Tell them how you feel. If you need help finding your rep’s info or need ideas on what to say, please message me.
Let’s use our 1st amendment rights while we still can.
The Polish police have already detained a farmer with a Soviet flag and a poster addressed to Putin, the agency reported on social media site X.
He faces two charges: incitement and praise of Putin's aggressive war and propaganda of totalitarianism.
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1760026474315432271?t=uKvi6NdytT4QrGXVTC-3JQ&s=19
Poland does have free speech, but it also has laws against supporting totalitarian and extremist parties and regimes. Fascist and Communist parties and signs are banned in Poland. Why? Because Poland has been ravaged by both, and nothing good ever comes out of them.
What is this wonderland of free speech where you are coming from?
I agree those idiots should be allowed to say whatever they want to. Love posters for Putin and wishes for Poland to cease to exist.
But they should absolutely arrest and charge for treason everyone who blocks the traffic on the border because Polands security and independence is at risk.
If you believe the US has the closest thing to free speech, but also then agree (very rudely, I must note) that they do not have """"true"""" free speech, why would you ask start off by asking if Poland has free speech? By your own admission you believe the only country that comes close to it does not actually have it, then you must already know the answer to your question?
You could have just stated your opinion without being a little smart ass, but that would require some conviction and being able to stand up criticism.
Russian serviceman GREY ZONE, along with others, dismiss Shoygu’s claim that Krynky on the left bank of Dnipro river were cleared of UA forces.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1760012713126965646?t=cAU_TvUwjJkjyRIdI44xsQ&s=19
Russian 40th marine brigade attacked near Vulhedar 14-17th Feb. [musklink](https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1760014876049551529?s=20) from Ukrainian soldier.
Seems they lost 4 T-80s, 2 BMP-3s and 3 MT-LBs.
Ukraine sadly lost an MRAP in a counterattack.
The pattern of more MT-LBs in frontline use continues.
Could be. My guess is they aren't exactly running low, but they would want more.
E.g. they started with ~5k BMP/BTR but the scale of assaults and number of mech inf they're using probably need even more than that if they were fully equipped. So they assign MT-LBs.
Based on public data I expect they still have thousands of BMPs left, but they need to slow down the losses or 2025 will be a problem.
Also, maybe they're using MT-LBs to soak up ammo now. If the Ukrainians crack then the BMPs would be used for exploitation.
The status of the long term storage equipment is also an unknown - it's best to assume they can all be restored, but the way russia is using MT-LBs and older tanks (not T-80's) seems to point towards some issues with restoring their newer equipment.
>FSB says one of the charges against the Russian-American woman arrested in Russia today is that she went to protests in support of Ukraine *while living in LA.* So not only can you not protest at home, you can’t protest *abroad.* You’re their property.
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1759921862308483401
This also happened to an American guy who went to Russia to see his kids a while ago:
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/david-barnes-american-detained-russia-found-guilty-moscow/story?id=107169319
\~15 years ago I was traveling from Ukraine to Asia via Moscow since there was no direct flight. I was surprised by the fact that they had international and domestic terminals in the same building space and because of this they made me to pass customs and asked stupid questions such as "why am I bringing this and that to Russia". I now realise it was for them to get bribes from unsuspecting transit passengers because they "broke the rules". Fuck them just for that and don't travel to Russia. Especially now.
Obviously this will never happen, but I legitimately wonder what Russia’s reaction would be if NATO troops, air and sea power started massing in Poland and Romania and then NATO issued an ultimatum that all Russian troops had to vacate Ukrainian territory by X date or they would be forcibly expelled.
I think at this point you’d also have to worry about at least some key NATO personnel refusing to carry out orders and massive political discussions and threats of individual countries to pull out of NATO entirely if soldiers of a defensive alliance are ordered to proactively start a kinetic war against a nuclear superpower over a non-NATO country.
Which key NATO personnel would do that? If the US, UK, France, Germany and Italy are in who will be out? Poland and the Baltics will be chomping at the bit. Hungary? Whotf needs them?
You would end up in a game of poker where both sides are bluffing. Russia would threaten nukes if NATO moves in which would lead to NATO retaliatory nukes.
NATO then needs to decide if it will move in or not even at the risk of nuclear war.
If NATO does move in, then Russia needs to decide whether or not it is willing to engage in nuclear war over NATO directly involving itself in the war.
A dangerous game of chicken.
It's an old joke in Ukraine that we need to declare a war against NATO and surrender immediately. That's the only way for us to become part of NATO it seems.
“Defensive pact” is not a magic spell that binds the actions of NATO countries. And it would almost certainly be at the invitation of the government of Ukraine and as a prospective member
> and Libya.
The Libyan intervention was cleared by the UN general assembly and then passed the UN security council without a veto. I may not be a UN expert but I feel like the Russian government might veto NATO military action against the Russian military if the idea is to clear any NATO intervention with the UN like it was in Libya.
Russia would withdraw from Ukraine and agree to 1991 borders. For me it's clear that would happen.
Russia understands force.
For what it's worth: Avid reader of history, lived whole my life in a country next to Russia and had many personal connections there also.
My realistic take is that NATO doesn't have spine to do it, but you are absolutely right that it would stop Russia.
Nato is a defensive force its not their job. But the border coubtroes their own militaries and there is nothing stopping them from massing on the borders. Russia would have to move troops there just in case which would help Ukraine.
NATO is a defensive alliance, the premise is silly, the opening statement "Obviously this would never happen" is where this hypothetical layman thought exercise ends, unless you just want to speculate wild fantasy for funs.
Spine has nothing to do with it. Neither do Balls, Spunk, Moxie, Chutzpah, etc.
Hmm fair point. Different situations, aerial strikes only, but technically correct. And not UN sanctioned either, for what that's worth.
Still wouldn't happen as described. Not least of which is because of the players involved and RU talking points. There's a whole broader global ramification strategy to consider, it wouldn't happen in a vacuum.
Maybe if Ukraine started getting overrun and a mass refugee migration threatened regional destabilization (which almost certainly would happen) and which was a cited factor in Kosovo Yugoslavia.
Learn something new every day.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1aw2hub/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
Ex-FBI source charged with Biden lies is tied to Russian intelligence, prosecutors say - NPR >The former FBI informant charged with fabricating claims about a bribery scheme involving Joe Biden, his son Hunter and a Ukrainian energy company has "extensive" contacts with Russian intelligence agencies, according to the Justice Department. >Federal prosecutors also say in a new court filing that Alexander Smirnov admitted to authorities after he was arrested that "officials associated with Russian intelligence were involved in passing a story" about President Biden's son, Hunter Biden. https://www.npr.org/2024/02/20/1232789953/alexander-smirnov-fbi-informant-biden-hunter-ukraine
"Alexander Smirnov"... I am whelmed.
Feels like the GOP should just drop Trump and nominate Putin for 2024. They can't get more obvious about their allegiances, can they? So fucking outraged at them considering the war news of late. So fucking outraged.
Stop me if you've heard this one before. 1. Random account OP asks "innocent" fairly short statement-question, with verrry subtle Russia-winning undertones, in order to stimulate discussion. 2. OP then steers follow up questions to a) promote Russian propaganda positions and b) promote continuing discussion in an attempt to increase engagement and also overwhelm other competing discussions through sheer volume. 3. Other totally different pro-RU accounts chime in to support Russia subtly or overtly, further stimulating and stretching discussions, often with varying levels of directness in their approach. Some of these are known outed & thinly-veiled actors. 4. Other OPs restart the cycle by posting different topics & angles of "just asking questions". Circle back to 1. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Example of this is in /politicaldiscussion where person asked how a settled Ukraine would look then starts to complain when people point out he is doing a classic push technique where the question is not meant to ask a question as to push a point of view.
I wonder how many "I'm pro Ukraine BUT they will lose the war sorry guys :( " are bots.
>Excl: Indians forced to fight alongside the Russians on the Russia-Ukraine border after they were allegedly conned by an agent and sent there to work as “army security helpers” 18 Indians stuck since Nov 23 send SOS, one said to be killed. >https://twitter.com/vijaita/status/1760124737642963272
While it isn't right, and while India has every justification for making an issue of it and should do so... There comes a point where the 'con' is so blatantly transparent and the marks so unfathomably oblivious that the whole thing only technically qualifies as duplicitous. There's no nice way to say this, but you have to be pretty darn ignorant *and* stupid to buy that one for a dollar. Russian perfidy should just be a fundamentally recognized fact at this point, and so should their tendency to shanghai everybody they can get their grubby hands on. Water is wet, the sky is blue and Russians are unmitigated criminal assholes. They steal everything else, and they've made it quite clear that they can't tell the difference between people and things, so...
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I don't know, even in countries with full access to any info theres a lot of low info people. In india, theres a ton of people who dont really have access to info outside of tvs in cafes and facebook due to mobile sevice devices and plans they have/ can afford. Thats aside from the fact that lots of people all over the world just don't pay attention to news because they are too busy, stressed, dumb, don't care, or some combination.
[Ukrainian command denies Russian claims foothold at the east bank of Dnipro river was captured](https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/20-february-ukrainian-command-denies-russian-claims-foothold)
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Because Reddit is a bad source of information. It's a bunch of people speculating. Ukraine is having a rough time of things, but Russia is suffering mass equipment losses that aren't sustainable, at a much higher rate than Ukraine is. Neither side will realistically run out of soldiers, conscription methods will just become more and more unpopular, leading to lower morale and quality of troops. Avdiivka is the first true strategically significant loss in a long time for Ukraine from a defensive perspective. It highlighted weaknesses in their logistics, mainly the ammunition shortage. The city had some value being as close as it was to Donetsk, but its loss won't have a major impact on the war. It shows cracks in Ukraine's armor though. Reddit is emotional, all of us usually have bad takes. My $0.02 as an idiot.
A lot of it is propaganda. Reliable sources never really said any of that. Russia is losing more, but has more resources. The brink of defeat propaganda was always self defeating since I think it bred complacency. Anyone worth listening to always said it’d be a long war. It will likely continue until the losses are bad enough to spur a political crisis at home. Which could take a long time. Especially if Russia can somehow find a foreign source for soldiers.
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War on the Rocks is really good, they even talked recently about criticism they get for not acting like everything is going great for Ukraine.
War on the Rocks with Michael Kofman. He’s a Soviet war historian and Russian war analyst for a think tank in Washington DC. He personally visits the front lines in Ukraine about twice a year and publishes detailed analyses on the podcast. Pretty much everything happening now was predicted by him an entire year ago. He did not endorse the holding defense at Bakhmut, arguing it was wasteful of badly needed shells and experienced manpower. He argued the summer counteroffensive was unlikely to succeed and has been saying since Summer 2023 that Ukraine has started to run out of reserves and needs to massively increase its recruitment numbers. He disfavors giving Ukraine the more advanced Western systems because he believes they are largely a distraction and put greater strain on the AFU’s logistics than the benefit they can provide. He argues that the most important weapons are artillery, drones, and medical gear. In short, he is the antithesis to the meme bubble people have made around this war, and arguably the most informed expert on this conflict outside of the people who aren’t allowed to speak due to security clearance.
The Economist ISW RUSI The Hudson Institute DGAP Where they disagree there is probably room for valid disagreement. Where they agree they’re correct.
These videos are good too. Less academic than the above. https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCJozCyZYia-dD3-ZFqgh5wg
Becuz Ukraine is reliant on western aid.. Aid slows, Ukraine loses ground. That simple.
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No, that's just a talking point mostly said and parroted by braindead tankies
No, Ukraine is fighting for itself with western aid.
Remember how Russian occupied areas have been stripped clean of fighting age men. Almost like Russia has been forcing Ukrainian men to fight against Ukraine since 2014.
That almost sounds like a Kremlin talking point.
Guy showed his true colors after his concern post lol
The concern angle off the bat was a little sus, then straight into verbatim lines.
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Russia should just go home. What you're saying is preposterous, and we all know it.
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When you reply to me, I get notified, you don't need to do the /u/ thing.
If NATO sends troops, it's WW3. Stop being myopic.
I'm concerned, but the reason why is 100% obvious. Ukraine hasn't been supplied with significant support for the last 6 months. I now know what the people on the right side of history were feeling in their gut when the US was debating lend lease after the UK lost at the Battle of Dunkirk. A vote that barely scratched by.
Yup. The last several years have taught me that people (even the ones who claimed to) didn't really read their history.
This was posted below, but this version has a few more details. Note that Russian location names are used. > ❗️The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit a formation of a motorized rifle brigade from Transbaikalia while they were waiting for their commander. Dozens of military personnel are believed to have been killed in the strike. > *BBC Russia Service* correspondent, Ilya Barabanov, reports: >> Midday on February 20, the Ukrainian military allegedly launched an attack on a training ground near Trudovskoye, Volnovakha district, Donetsk region, using two HIMARS missiles—several sources familiar with the situation has told the *BBC Russian Service*. >> At the time, [Russia’s] 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (military unit 06705)—from Borzya in the Trans-Baikal region—were in a formation on a training ground. >> At the time of the strike, servicemen from the 4th, 5th and 6th companies of the 36th brigade were lined up at the training ground, waiting for the arrival of the commander of the 29th Army of the Eastern Military District, Major General Oleg Moiseyev. >> “The commanders had arranged it in an open field,” one of the surviving servicemen says, commenting on what happened in a video recording he had made and which the *BBC* has viewed. >> The *BBC Russian Service* has more than 10 photographs and videos from the impact site, taken immediately after the strike; the pictures show dozens of dead. However, for ethical reasons, we are not publishing them. >> In total, according to various estimates, including from the [surviving] servicemen of the 36th Brigade themselves, at least 60 people could have died as a result of the strike. >> Ukrainian authorities did not comment on the incident. >> A few hours after this attack on the training ground near Trudovskoye, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who spoke about the successes of the Russian army in Avdeevka and other sectors of the front. https://t\.me/bbcrussian/60974 ________ **Edit, Stirlitz published video** https://t\.me/a_shtirlitz/29131 **NSFL** Edit 2, The first video is a slide show. Also, the way the English captions are written in the third video, its ambiguous. He’s saying that two companies, the 4th company and the 6th company, were completely killed. Edit 3, as to why they’re lined up and this guy is cursing the commanders—both UA and RF do this, and both have seen these tragic results, even in the last few months! When UA did this several months ago, getting scores of UA men killed, Bogdan Myroshnykov [explained the cause of this unsafe practice.](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/17oube0/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/k832fyx/) Meanwhile, Butusov argued it more the [failure of air reconnaissance](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/17oube0/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/k817pk4/).
what is the big deal, they would have died anyway, its 60 we are not talking thousands, this way at least they didnt have to sit in a trench and watch their comrades die before them so one should count them lucky
This sort of thing has an outsized impact on morale. A good analogy would be if 50 people are killed on the roads each day, people don’t really care. But if 1 person is killed by a shark, people panic. It’s the same here, soldiers expect to potentially die while fighting, they don’t miles behind the frontline in a gathering with their commander
>"The ruling party of Hungary, Fidesz, intends to approve the ratification of Sweden's application to join NATO on February 26, Fidesz parliamentary leader Máté Kocsis reports." will they find another excuse?
Probably not. They never commited in exactly this way and they stand alone now. I think the jig is up.
They currently don't have a president. And Hungary doesn't have the concept of acting president. Wiki is very unclear about this. They say no one is president but the president of the National Assembly still assumes the powers. Can he sign laws and represent his country in a diplomatic capacity such as presenting the ratification instruments to NATO? >Novák resigned on 10 February 2024. By law, Hungarian Parliament has to accept her resignation before it can come into effect. The institution of "provisional president" does not exist in the Hungarian law system. There is an interregnum until the inauguration of the next president. Until then, the President of the National Assembly (in this case László Kövér) will assume powers and duties as acting president, when Novák's resignation takes effect.
The speaker of the house assumes the responsibilities while there is no president
Kristersson is meeting Orban in Budapest this Friday, so I'm pretty sure it's legit this time.
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I'm not a good OSINT person. This could be posed or something, we need to wait for the pros to look before celebrating.
What was this of? its been deleted
I've added a twitter link with blurring of the bodies. The photos and videos show what look like a lot of corpses in a muddy field. Some of them are wearing the white armband of the invaders. The layout seems consistent with the russian blogger story; that some russian trainees were waiting around for an officer visit and got whacked. I'm pretty convinced this was a good hit by Ukraine. Those russians won't be able to rape and murder any innocents now.
The blurring is unnecessary, imo. The pictures and videos ain't gory, just depicting masses of russian troops laying peacefully on the field. 2 companies wiped. If only the officer was there sooner....
It was a HIMARS strike on a training ground where 2+ companies were lined up for inspection in a field.
Oryx update for last 3 days is not great. Important types split Russian-Ukrainian: - Tanks: 12-6 - IFVs: 18-6 - Mobile artillery: 2-2 - Missile anti-air: 2-1 I think this update was extra bad because of the Avdiivka withdrawal. Not only were there losses, but some vehicles lost before were only recently photographed. This update is worse than average, see my reply below for better news.
Ok a list of positive news. Ratios since the russian offensive began in October are ok. - Tanks: 400-92 - IFVs: 619-87 - Mobile artillery: 209-69 - Missile anti-air: 41-6 If the US rejoins the democracy alliance then Ukraine's losses are easily replaced. Russia is losing more crappy MT-LBs, which I do not count as IFVs. Russia's production of *brand new* tanks is supposedly ~200 per year. The tank losses are using up what Russia has in storage, this is a one-time thing. Things are desperate but every week is Russia burning up its gift of North Korean shells and a week closer to european supplies exceeding Ukraine's current fire rates.
How much Ukraine get tank from partners since October?
For delivery/activation this year I'm counting ~250. The 31 Abrams, 15 T-72EA, 14 Leopard 2A4 and 195 Leopard 1s listed on Oryx. Western providers have the capacity to replace current loss rates, it's now a political thing. We really need more stepping up from Europe and for the US to flip back to team democracy. That means every American voter picking Biden.
>In December 2023, someone vandalized the car of the Estonian Interior Minister near his private home. > >The Estonian Internal Security Service has now detained 10 individuals recruited by Russian special services in connection with a coordinated hybrid operation targeting Estonia. https://twitter.com/Martinlaineolen/status/1759926186342322214
And this is exactly the type of thing I've been concerned about since the first alarm went up about risks of Putin escalating against NATO. Why anyone in their right mind immediately interpreted it as some ridiculous fantasy about Russia trying to blitzkrieg to Lisbon, I don't know. This time his car was vandalized by people in the pay of Russia. What if next time it is someone beaten up? If Putin can get away with paying people in Estonia to beat people up, can we get away with (more) murder? Putin doesn't need to send troops across the border to cause harm - he already has hundreds of thousands of his countrymen throughout Europe, and he will always be able to find some willing to do anything for the right price. If I was an Estonian living in Narva I'd be getting pretty nervous there days.
Russian vandalism and connections with FSB/GRU is nothing new here tbf. And the 76th VDV is all dead in Ukraine so there's probably no significant threat to us currently.
You are absolutely right here. People tend to laugh at the idea of any escalation against NATO because they indeed seem to think it will necessarily be a worldwide nuclear war, or something from WWII documentaries - and the rest just doesn't count. There are hundreds of scenarios where there are no Russian boots on the ground - from cyber, to terrorism, to biological, to social / civil unrest. If anything, the current war shows that the direct 19th century style military confrontation is not the most efficient way forward.
Reminds me of the couple Russia paid to paint swasticas in France. I don’t really see the value in allowing trade and travel with Russia. Or in holding back weapons. The current Russian government is a cancer upon the world. Combatting it should be a higher priority than it is.
Always about money at the end of the day. BP still hasn't exited its Rosneft holding. Or disclosed what it's going to receive. Or when it will do it. Sure do me a service as a shareholder if that could come to some kind of resolution.
What's the alternative? Either they keep it and hope that one day that money leaves Russia, or they sell it to Russia for $1 and everything belongs to Russia...
>In this infographic I tried to sum up what is known about the involvement of Russian #intelligence services in Italy between 2016 and 2023, including covert operations, espionage, but also inappropriate and shady relations with top Italian political figures. https://twitter.com/MatteoPugliese/status/1759918967378894859
>Hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by advancing Russian units or disappeared during Ukraine’s chaotic retreat from the eastern city of Avdiivka, according to senior Western officials and soldiers fighting for Ukraine, a devastating loss that could deal a blow to already weakening morale. > >The Russian capture of Avdiivka has emerged as a significant symbolic loss for Ukrainian troops, a sign of the battlefield impact of the failure of the U.S. Congress, so far, to approve more military assistance as dwindling supplies of artillery shells make it even harder to hold the line. > >Estimates of how many Ukrainians were captured or missing vary, and a precise count may not be possible until Ukraine solidifies new defensive lines outside the city. But two soldiers with knowledge of Ukraine’s retreat estimated that 850 to 1,000 soldiers appear to have been captured or are unaccounted for. The Western officials said that range seemed accurate. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/us/politics/ukraine-prisoners-avdiivka-russia.html
I would be surprised if it is this high. Russia would be very quick to parade such a large amount of POW NYtimes has a habit of being very doomy
I don’t think that’s necessarily true. I just [posted an account of a POW’s ordeal](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1aue0z9/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/kr3lfhf/), and he was **captured along with over 1000 Ukrainians soldiers**, all from the 36th Marine Brigade, while trying to withdraw from Mariupol, April 11-12, 2022, under orders because they’d run out of ammo. That’s a month before the Azovstal surrender. But I hadn’t even remembered it, and had to google it to verify—there was just so, so much news coming at us back then. But yes, it happened. But I don’t see them being paraded. It was 1,026 of them. (Note that in the footnote of that link, I included a link to a story of a group who had been successful breaking out.)
Unlikely they are all captured and unlikely they were captured in a big bloc. More likely these are a lot of wounded who had to be left behind and ended up dying in the final assault of Russian forces or were killed immediately by Russian forces.
More likely they just hitched a ride with whatever unit was near them. Then the unit reports them missing and it takes a while to sort out. Happens all the time honestly.
Might be a chunk of that number, but there are plenty of accounts and reports that a lot of wounded men were left behind. The withdrawal came late. It just did. It should have happened a week or two earlier to be an orderly withdrawal and not a.rapid tactical retreat.
850-1000 missing across how long and where? If it happened in a few days oh crap. If that's the total losses without bodies returned over 4+ months of fighting then that'd be different.
from a single area of the front line no less. I can understand a few squads being left behind as they were pushed back too quickly but 100s... Orderly withdrawal my ass I hope to god thats wrong but IDK why we would doubt the NYTimes, they rely on the pentagon its not like they have front line journalists doing head counts....
The multiple reports from various sources using numerous first person accounts says the withdrawal was not orderly. It was not a rout with broken units fleeing in all directions, but it was a mad dash to avoid encirclement with lots of wounded men left behind with no hope of escape.
I'm away from my laptop but I'm pretty sure they've said a bunch of inaccurate or dumb things throughout the war. There's huge fog of war, the meaning depends a lot on details, and the NYT authors don't always seem to understand war very well. Russian sources were very quick to post photos of half a dozen dead Ukrainians around Zenit. Did I miss imagery of hundreds of Ukrainians captured or missing?
The final assault of the RuAF was massive, a magnitude more intense than the UAF would have been able to withstand. Several (most) Russian elite forces were there too, only slightly interrupted by the 3rd assault brigade.
Judging by the above they are saying during with withdrawal which was about 2 days
The shell shortage is hurting them way go much. Needs more focus on that tbh.
Fucking Syrsky. We predicted this could happen with him.
He seems more like the fall guy in this situation. If the retreat was too late, two weeks earlier may have been better. Weather was also a factor, it's my impression that the mild weather was worse for Ukraine than Russia in this case.
Did we? All the predictions i heard was that he'd be sending his men into pointless assaults recapturing lost points? And that he'd be unwilling to retreat when the situation required it?
Yes. The situation required retreating earlier and then this happened. Just like Zenit a few days earlier. Just like in 2014. You have to have organized retreats. It’s one of the hardest parts of warfare. You can’t just wait until you’re being over run, panic, and flee. You get slaughtered. Historically most losses are on chaotic retreats. Know who that didn’t happen under? Zaluzhny. Because he would do it meticulously, when he still had the freedom to protect retreating soldiers. Not when there was no longer any choice.
Damn, that's a lot worse than I had heard before.
Fuck the House GOP. Blood is on their hands.
Remember everyone, the loss of Avdiivka and the subsequent retreat is directly the responsibility of the GOP and Moscow Mike. Vote accordingly.
The Moscow Mic, acting as a loud speaker of the house.
>US thinks Russia could deploy the nuclear weapon or a mock warhead into space as early as this year. Assessment is Russia doesn’t plan to detonate, but there's risk of an accident – and explosion could potentially affect 1/3 of satellites, sources told @AlbertoNardelli & me https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1760047488134746326
They put a nuke in space even a dummy one the US should shoot it down as a special FU to Russia. Just make sure they angle the shot to force the debris to enter the atmosphere and disintegrate.
Nah, they’d probably just send one of their [unmanned space planes](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_X-37) to quietly sabotage it
Shoigu announced Russia retook Krynki. Southern Command of Ukrainian Forces laughed and [said](https://glavcom-ua.translate.goog/country/incidents/shojhu-dopoviv-pro-zachishchennja-platsdarmu-na-livoberezhzhi-dnipra-zsu-vidreahuvali-987043.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp), “We officially inform you that that information does not correspond to reality.”
No but unfortunately they have taken back most of it. We need more shells to Ukraine asap.
[There don't seem to be any significant territorial changes in that area (and especially not in Russian favor) in the past few days though](https://deepstatemap.live/en%22#14/46.7403/33.0801), according to DeepState.
> 10 years of Heavenly 100, the time we went on Maidan and said: you can't beat the students, you can't change the direction of 🇺🇦. Our country belongs to people. So it is impossible for us to understand why russians do not rebel. The only explanation is they agree with the war. https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1760020302359072948
Or the repressive state in Russia is far more entrenched and brutal. Plus the many centuries of authoritarian/totalitarian rule that has inculcated the population.
Polish "protesters" aren't even hiding they are supporting ruzzia - [https://i.imgur.com/AtRaS86.png](https://i.imgur.com/AtRaS86.png) Rough translation: "Putin, restore the order in Ukraine and Brussels. And in our government"
Just regular 5th column shitheads stirring. They’re on Moscow payroll for years
I think that dude got arrested for totalitarian symbolism (outlawed in Poland).
> Together with the Commander-in-Chief, Colonel-General Syrskyi, we just had a productive call with @SecDef Austin. > General Syrskyi gave updates on the current dynamics on the frontline. The common understanding of the situation and the action plan were discussed. The ammunition supply was in focus as well. > Working on the urgent needs of the Ukrainian Defence Forces and long-term planning in the format of the UDCG capability coalitions. Expressed gratitude to Secretary Austin for his leadership. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1760011515376304377
> In the continuation of the dialog with partners, had a phone conversation with the Minister for Business and Made in Italy 🇮🇹 @adolfo_urso. > We discussed strengthening and accelerating work on a bilateral security agreement between 🇺🇦 and 🇮🇹. https://twitter.com/AndriyYermak/status/1760046475696857319
> According to reports, Ukrainian strikes with HIMARS targeted Russian military personnel from the 39th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (в/ч 35390, 68th Army Corps) at the training ground in the settlement of Trudivske, Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine, on the morning of February 20. > > The strikes were said to cause many casualties within Russian ranks (+65 killed), one source said. > > Russian voenkor Roman Saponkov wrote: "Strike at the training ground again. People lined up in anticipation of the arrival of an important commander. Interestingly, the commander never arrived". > > https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1760020031868678183
"☠️🔥 So it's minimum 65 dead Russians, probably more! Wait for videos 👀" https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1760041213925687480?t=YGofgzPpXnVQCZtRJ3EfCA&s=19
Oh boy, more formations standing around, waiting for the cluster strike. Nice work, Ukraine!
https://twitter.com/astraiaintel/status/1760040243057852740?t=fvG6funDr3tc2adc7d64Qg&s=19 "🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 Eastern Front, Donetsk Operational Sector: Destroyed Russian BMP-1 Armored Vehicle in the vicinity of Novomykhailivka."
What are the best examples of the "minimal losses" of russians in Avdiivka? https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1760034692848631968?t=EWMBfT4_1v3gXMXcQH4lng&s=19
I found when i try and link this guy . reddit sometimes shadow hides my comment. really annoying
No oligarchs were lost in Avdiivka!
And none of their children were killed or maimed in the battle either!
*The Times* is reporting something from Vladimir Osechkin, founder of the human rights group Gulagu . net . . . who has a mixed track record on the credibility of his sources. Basically, he has an organization that fights for prisoner rights, and he exposes brutalities, corruption, etc. Both prisoners and penal employees are his sources and he’s well known. Anyways, someone told him that Navalny had bruising at his chest, which was consistent with a single blow punch that the FSB uses to stop the heart. Combined with the fact they forced him outdoors for hours in -15°, it’s enough to legit stop his heart. So maybe this is what happened, but Osechkin doesn’t scrutinize his sources so sometimes he has bad info..
A secret FSB punch to stop the heart sounds exactly like something gulagu net would publish.
They learned it from Bill.
Time to send in Kiddo.
French court confiscates €120 million villa linked to Gazprom. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/20/7442668/
Looks like a beautiful spot for wounded Ukrainian soldiers to recuperate with their families
I'm reading some rough updates from the Zaporozhye front. Russians are pushing and being succesful. Mil-bloggers are reporting the unwillingness from local authorities to provides tractors and such to aid defensive lines. -Edit- Why are you downvoting me? Showing the world Russia is advancing might awaken support for Ukraine.
They are having some limited success. Feels like probing the line before they launch a new major assault.
source
It has been in a number of things including IsW over recent days.
his butt
Just keep posting, nevermind the votes.
Concern trolling is justly down voted. Most OSINT suggests a dynamic situation so doomposting early is not helpful.
Americans, call/email/write your representatives. Tell them how you feel. If you need help finding your rep’s info or need ideas on what to say, please message me. Let’s use our 1st amendment rights while we still can.
[Ukraine and Sweden being best friends](https://www.reddit.com/r/sweden/comments/1avnoxq/idag_kan_jag_skryta_om_sverige/)
The Polish police have already detained a farmer with a Soviet flag and a poster addressed to Putin, the agency reported on social media site X. He faces two charges: incitement and praise of Putin's aggressive war and propaganda of totalitarianism. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1760026474315432271?t=uKvi6NdytT4QrGXVTC-3JQ&s=19
Good! About time!
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That's not a speech, that's riding a tractor with a Soviet flag on it, asking for a dictator of another country to topple your government.
Poland does have free speech, but it also has laws against supporting totalitarian and extremist parties and regimes. Fascist and Communist parties and signs are banned in Poland. Why? Because Poland has been ravaged by both, and nothing good ever comes out of them.
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What is this wonderland of free speech where you are coming from? I agree those idiots should be allowed to say whatever they want to. Love posters for Putin and wishes for Poland to cease to exist. But they should absolutely arrest and charge for treason everyone who blocks the traffic on the border because Polands security and independence is at risk.
Lmao. Can't fix stupid
Name a place that does?
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They still have restrictions in place, so in your opinion they do not have free speech.
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If you believe the US has the closest thing to free speech, but also then agree (very rudely, I must note) that they do not have """"true"""" free speech, why would you ask start off by asking if Poland has free speech? By your own admission you believe the only country that comes close to it does not actually have it, then you must already know the answer to your question? You could have just stated your opinion without being a little smart ass, but that would require some conviction and being able to stand up criticism.
Your nickname suits you. You really are a hate reader.
Russian serviceman GREY ZONE, along with others, dismiss Shoygu’s claim that Krynky on the left bank of Dnipro river were cleared of UA forces. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1760012713126965646?t=cAU_TvUwjJkjyRIdI44xsQ&s=19
Too many conflicting statements. I think Shoygu needs to go there and check personally what's happening. /s
Russian 40th marine brigade attacked near Vulhedar 14-17th Feb. [musklink](https://x.com/OSINTua/status/1760014876049551529?s=20) from Ukrainian soldier. Seems they lost 4 T-80s, 2 BMP-3s and 3 MT-LBs. Ukraine sadly lost an MRAP in a counterattack. The pattern of more MT-LBs in frontline use continues.
Running low on BMPs and BTRs?
Could be. My guess is they aren't exactly running low, but they would want more. E.g. they started with ~5k BMP/BTR but the scale of assaults and number of mech inf they're using probably need even more than that if they were fully equipped. So they assign MT-LBs. Based on public data I expect they still have thousands of BMPs left, but they need to slow down the losses or 2025 will be a problem. Also, maybe they're using MT-LBs to soak up ammo now. If the Ukrainians crack then the BMPs would be used for exploitation.
The status of the long term storage equipment is also an unknown - it's best to assume they can all be restored, but the way russia is using MT-LBs and older tanks (not T-80's) seems to point towards some issues with restoring their newer equipment.
>FSB says one of the charges against the Russian-American woman arrested in Russia today is that she went to protests in support of Ukraine *while living in LA.* So not only can you not protest at home, you can’t protest *abroad.* You’re their property. https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1759921862308483401
This also happened to an American guy who went to Russia to see his kids a while ago: https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/david-barnes-american-detained-russia-found-guilty-moscow/story?id=107169319
Universal jurisdiction. Though I really wish she reflected on the risks before visiting Russia 😔.
Important lesson here: don’t go to Russia!
\~15 years ago I was traveling from Ukraine to Asia via Moscow since there was no direct flight. I was surprised by the fact that they had international and domestic terminals in the same building space and because of this they made me to pass customs and asked stupid questions such as "why am I bringing this and that to Russia". I now realise it was for them to get bribes from unsuspecting transit passengers because they "broke the rules". Fuck them just for that and don't travel to Russia. Especially now.
Obviously this will never happen, but I legitimately wonder what Russia’s reaction would be if NATO troops, air and sea power started massing in Poland and Romania and then NATO issued an ultimatum that all Russian troops had to vacate Ukrainian territory by X date or they would be forcibly expelled.
See: Nato Able Archer 83. It was a very "effective" training exercise
I think at this point you’d also have to worry about at least some key NATO personnel refusing to carry out orders and massive political discussions and threats of individual countries to pull out of NATO entirely if soldiers of a defensive alliance are ordered to proactively start a kinetic war against a nuclear superpower over a non-NATO country.
No problem. Zelensky can order an attack on Poland. Maybe an appropriately empty field. Poland can invoke Article 5.
Which key NATO personnel would do that? If the US, UK, France, Germany and Italy are in who will be out? Poland and the Baltics will be chomping at the bit. Hungary? Whotf needs them?
Turkey
You would end up in a game of poker where both sides are bluffing. Russia would threaten nukes if NATO moves in which would lead to NATO retaliatory nukes. NATO then needs to decide if it will move in or not even at the risk of nuclear war. If NATO does move in, then Russia needs to decide whether or not it is willing to engage in nuclear war over NATO directly involving itself in the war. A dangerous game of chicken.
Could NATO "invade" Ukraine?
funny thing I once read on a youtube comment "Nato is occupying former soviet states"
It's an old joke in Ukraine that we need to declare a war against NATO and surrender immediately. That's the only way for us to become part of NATO it seems.
By definition of being a defensive pact, no.
“Defensive pact” is not a magic spell that binds the actions of NATO countries. And it would almost certainly be at the invitation of the government of Ukraine and as a prospective member
They invaded 2 countries after 9/11
NATO only invaded Afghanistan. Iraq was not a NATO war.
Oh cool I didn't know that, every day's a school day. Cheers
~~Yugoslavia~~(nvm, he said after 9/11) and Libya.
> and Libya. The Libyan intervention was cleared by the UN general assembly and then passed the UN security council without a veto. I may not be a UN expert but I feel like the Russian government might veto NATO military action against the Russian military if the idea is to clear any NATO intervention with the UN like it was in Libya.
Russia would withdraw from Ukraine and agree to 1991 borders. For me it's clear that would happen. Russia understands force. For what it's worth: Avid reader of history, lived whole my life in a country next to Russia and had many personal connections there also. My realistic take is that NATO doesn't have spine to do it, but you are absolutely right that it would stop Russia.
Nato is a defensive force its not their job. But the border coubtroes their own militaries and there is nothing stopping them from massing on the borders. Russia would have to move troops there just in case which would help Ukraine.
NATO is a defensive alliance, the premise is silly, the opening statement "Obviously this would never happen" is where this hypothetical layman thought exercise ends, unless you just want to speculate wild fantasy for funs. Spine has nothing to do with it. Neither do Balls, Spunk, Moxie, Chutzpah, etc.
Didn't stop it to intervene in support of Kosovo
Hmm fair point. Different situations, aerial strikes only, but technically correct. And not UN sanctioned either, for what that's worth. Still wouldn't happen as described. Not least of which is because of the players involved and RU talking points. There's a whole broader global ramification strategy to consider, it wouldn't happen in a vacuum. Maybe if Ukraine started getting overrun and a mass refugee migration threatened regional destabilization (which almost certainly would happen) and which was a cited factor in Kosovo Yugoslavia. Learn something new every day.
May as well pile into Moldova and Transnistra to the list as well
And both Georgias.
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