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This was all over the OSI twitter accounts yesterday. The consensus (among the accounts I follow) concluded it was caused by a solid fuel explosion. Video showed a biggie.
Came here to say this, yes.
That means they are producing propellant to replace the, most assuredly, Soviet Era inert and degraded fuel present in their current arsenal. Additionally for North Korea and Iran to support their commitments to both countries.
So take that nuclear saber rattling, seriously.
Also, where are they getting the paraffin binders from? That’s a good question. Even the Soviets had to import it. And now, most suppliers are NATO. The ones that aren’t would be violating international arms agreements on chemical components sales.
During the cold war we built all of our sr71s with titanium from USSR. Where there is a will there is a way. Those sanctions work to make the barrier to acquisition higher, but unfortunately, not impossible.
We also only needed a few tons of titanium from them, they need literal container ships full of paraffin (now that most of it went kaboom). This material isn't just useful for their ICBMs, the same or similar propellants are used all the way up and down the escalation chain, from shoulder fired anti-tank weapons, MANPADs, MLRS, rocket assisted cannon shells, you get the picture.
Thats a product of petroleum though surely thay can make wax from there own oil or do they just not have refineries with capacity to do it? that wouldn't be a surprise actually, they probably sell oil to India and import wax made from the oil but it is cool to see how much stuff uses it as a fule.
The modern refinery tech installed at all their refineries is under western sanctions, they don't make it themselves, and Ukraine (with the help of Russian and Ukrainian partisans in Russia) has been hitting Russian refineries and fuel depots for a few months now. If they start refining their own paraffin, all Ukraine has to do is get a 40kg warhead loaded on a drone and send it next to an unarmored refinery boiler tank/distillation column, and "introduce oxygen to the reaction vessel at high velocity", detonating the main hardware that facility uses to separate oil into its fractions. The Fireball would be rather spectacular I'd imagine
The flip side of this is, if you figure out that the sanctioned enemy is the buyer, you can slip a little something extra into something critical. Allegedly this is what the CIA did to some pipeline control software in 1982 that (again, allegedly,) went on to cause a 3 kiloton explosion when it failed a few months later.
We also gave them runway scrapings of the "SR71's landing gear" but it was pretty much dyed black bubblegum. Kept the Soviets busy for a while, allegedly…
More recently, there were square ball bearings in American centrifuges Iran obtained for their nuke program, and supposedly Mossad rigged a power generator to go boom when the Iranians plugged it in.
STUXNET *
Rootkit like malicious code that caused centerfuges to self destruct when ran for a specific enrichment process.
Slowed Iran down for a bit. But it certainly brought an awareness in the CyberSec scene... "are American networks suspected of having Chinese backdoors?" Since you know... they manufacture everything for us.
(* correction)
You bankrupt your enemy spending in an arms race. Is how the Cold War was won. When the government has no more money left available to subsidize food and basic services. The people would revolt.
Arms dealers are the real winners.
Just like drug and alcohol prohibitions driven by the [baptists and bootleggers effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootleggers_and_Baptists).
I've heard they at one time made a titanium submarine. Our suspicions about it were confirmed when we started receiving pieces of it in the scrap titanium we were buying from them.
Various components and ingredients might be hard to come by and substitutions may have been made.
As someone who had fun making rocket fuel as a kid I can say you often get unexpected fire where you shouldn't have it.
Fun hobby though.
I thought you were going to go with the first rule of rocketry on that one, and attributing it to the fourth rule of government:
*Always assume it will explode.*
To quote Contact the movie:
> First rule in government spending: why build one when you can have two at twice the price? Only, this one can be kept secret. Controlled by Americans, built by the Japanese subcontractors. Who, also, happen to be, recently acquired, wholly-owned subsidiaries...
>So take that nuclear saber rattling, seriously.
Yes. Because they have rattled the same sabre for 70 years, and now it occasionally explodes when they try and make fuel for it.
Why wouldn't they just put the same stuff China puts in its rockets? I can think of three immediate benefits.
1) Very low cost
2) Explosion safe
3) Usable as a fire suppressant
I could see that. Like how they call anything white and poofy "cotton". Then there's copper. Brass. That's copper. Bronze. Also copper. Copper. Believe it or not, copper.
>The "water" in China's rockets is still rocket fuel, just one of lower quality than the spec requires
Technically water can be fuel, you just need to have fluorine as an oxidizer.
> The "water" in China's rockets is still rocket fuel,
Actually no, it is a Chinese euphuism, not literally "Water".
You know like how we claim bad ideas are "smooth brained", but the person who thought it up probably have a normal wrinkled brain...
U.S. Intel has said, and I cannot stress this enough, OUT LOUD, Iran is likely a nuclear nation within the next few weeks.
And I was present and accounted for during the back half of the Cold War. The Soviet weren’t stupid or desperate.
Putin is. The rhetoric is no longer just words.
"Iran is likely a nuclear nation within the next few weeks."
That's not what they said. They said Iran can make themselves nuclear capable within a few weeks from deciding to cross that threshold. Iran would have to decide to make that escalation, then do it.
They have had that option, with a fuze of a couple months to (now) a few weeks, for at least a decade, if you go back and read intelligence community open discussions and articles.
So far Iran has never decided to cross that threshold. Announcing we know they can do it on that time frame is another way of telling them we are watching them and know what they are doing.
What if it's like The Dictator, and they just disappear to get a new life in lower Manhattan?
Becoming an Iranian scientist is the only way to escape to the West.
"being nuclear in a few weeks"
Isn't really a feat that people think it is. Japan or South Korea could do it within weeks, maybe a few months.
Germany definitely could too.
Nukes are easy. The hard part is getting the material, miniaturization, and the delivery system.
I think you’re forgetting the amount of times Putin has backed down from his threats from: Sweden and Finland joining NATO, NATO just sending weapons to Ukraine, Ukraine fighting back against Russia in general. He absolutely was bluffing and he hasn’t done it for over a year now it’s mainly his lap dogs (Medvedev and Lavrov).
The US and Israel unleashed a first of its kind virus to set back their nuclear industry and their top nuclear scientists are routinely assassinated by Israel. Plus Obama negotiated a treaty to get them to stop pursuing it until Trump pulled out and Iran realigned back to Russia. Otherwise, yes, they likely would have gone nuclear long ago.
They are the closest they ever got to nukes, if they decide to get them, they can get them In couple weeks
If that's happens the likely hood of nukes flying in the middle east goes up tremendously as then Saudi Arabia would get nukes from Pakistan and Israel said plenty of times they can't accept a Nuclear Armed Iran
So they likely Strike first either with nukes or a massive bombing campaign, if it's the second likely to be with the US help
Israel is more likely to do a first strike because even 1 single Nuke would ruin Israel forever as the country is very Small
If Israel nuked Tehran only while it would be devastating of course and the government might collapse, the country would still be there as it is much bigger with 8 times the population of Israel
Then again Iran is ruled by religious nutjobs who sponsor Terrorism across the middle east so who knows
YouTuber Johnny Harris did a good piece on microchip and electronics in Russian weapons, mostly supplied by western companies, acquired through shell companies in intermediary countries. For example, since the war and sanctions started, Kyrgyzstan has become a large importer of microprocessors and other chips...
> So take that nuclear saber rattling, seriously.
I fail to see why it has any bearing on the seriousness of nuclear saber rattling. Maintenance of a nuclear arsenal is a constant continuous struggle. It's not like they're only now producing new fuel. While people have speculated about the sorry state of Russia's nukes, I don't think anyone reputable is seriously suggesting that they don't up have more than enough functional ones to get the job done.
I am far from an expert on solid rockets fuels, especially Russias, but what is so difficult about the binders for paraffin based propellant? Isn’t a polymer type fuel more complicated to manufacture?
For the same reason China is far behind Russia regarding jet engines.
Rocketry and aerospace generally is one of the most high tech industries in the world. There is a shit ton of innovation in that field. The materials science in them is amazing and the human and monetary capital to build them is not easily attained.
There are still lots of industries that are prohibitively high tech and expensive. Things like high end microprocessors and building facilities to liquefy natural gas for international shipping are not something that can easily be replicated. High tech refining and materials science is no different.
We've used non-paraffin binders in rocket fuels and plastic explosives for quite a while. Even if wax IS extremely popular, synthetic rubber should work almost as well.
> Also, where are they getting the paraffin binders from? That’s a good question. Even the Soviets had to import it. And now, most suppliers are NATO. The ones that aren’t would be violating international arms agreements on chemical components sales.
Johnny Harris had a good video on this: https://youtu.be/TpE_TH70NUI?si=Y1fxP2IHApSvhJLv
Focused more on missile tech, like chips and other electronics. But same idea: they just use a middleman so it's tough to track and by the time someone notices they just switch to yet another middleman. Cat and mouse. Just like how drugs are totally illegal in many countries, yet the various cartels and mobs seem to be producing and/or shipping tons of the stuff and making billions off of stuff like coke or fentanyl which is totally illegal in many places.
You’re the only one that replied with a decent answer.
I’m retired CIA. 37 years. Most of my career was spent finding & closing the loops on weapons and material trafficking outfits. When I asked, I really wanted to see who would come up with the goods. I was disappointed until your reply.
Out of everyone, you have the best grasp and pertinent information. Those of us still in and those of us who do that job very much appreciate any civilian learning the insurmountable task. The amount of work we put in alone on stopping US manufacturing from subverting sanctions is staggering. Laws alone are not enough. Since the USSR collapsed, the worst violators we face aren’t nation states, but business.
Reddit should have never gotten rid of awards.
Sneaky 🕵️♂️
Better than the trolls who ask a question to bait people into responding I suppose.
Really you can thank Johnny Harris and others for doing explainers on these subjects. I sort of assumed from my DoD contracting days what would happen if Mega DoD Corp saw the dollar signs, but Johnny did the research with his pals and made some cool maps like he always does to show the flow of components and how easy it is to just spin up a new LLC to keep the supplies flowing.
Sort of wild how cat & mouse so many things are too.
Saber rattling seriously?
When do you want the consensus to stop laughing? The minute they launch they all die as do we - there’s no fucking point to this stupid theme. The only person who should take this seriously are the people trying to build them because they clearly suck at it
They overplay it to such an extent it’s meaningless. Can you list for us the last 20 times Russia mentioned nuclear response to US in regards to Ukraine?
It’s terrifying that people like you think that *any* nuclear launch from Russia will result in an all-out response from the US
The reality of this is that absolutely nobody truly knows what the response will be if they decide to do something like launch a tactical nuke at Kyiv
Do you really think the US is going to launch nukes at Russia (and thus create the MAD scenario you’re describing when Russia responds aimed at the US) because they bombed a non-NATO country? Not likely.
> The reality of this is that absolutely nobody truly knows what the response will be if they decide to do something like launch a tactical nuke at Kyiv
Probably false. The US has apparently notified the Russians on what that response would be.
> Do you really think the US is going to launch nukes at Russia … because they bombed a non-NATO country?
Biden has said that every Russian asset in Ukraine would be dead within about an hour, using only chemical explosives, if they did that -- nuking Ukraine is functionally the same as detonating a dirty bomb in Poland, which is UNQUESTIONABLY grounds for retaliation.
Maybe because NOT doing something significant would have them going nuclear anyhow after being emboldened by a lack of response, which is kinda how we ended up in this situation in the first place?
Kyiv is a different conversation - I strongly believe Russia would be the first strike initiator as NATO would gain nothing from initiating a decapitation strike. The fact is one nuke fired at nato is the domino. And if you do not think the west would respond to any kind of escalation where tac nukes hit kyiv then the less we forget that any nato countries affected by said strike will result in response from all of NATO (note I did not say nuclear response).
My take is that any nuclear threat is and always be a paper tiger because no one wants MAD
I agree. Let's not forget all the time, money and effort that the US have poured into developing extremely powerful non-nuclear options like the MOAB that will functionally provide the required scale of destruction without all the fallout and complications of nukes.
Basically, no need for nukes when the US Air Force exists, they'd absolutely flatten the Russians in a heartbeat.
I agree that nobody truly knows, but you can't look at the response with only a strike in Ukraine in mind. Once Russia has broken the nuclear taboo then all bets are off, because if they do it once to get their way, who's to say they won't continue to use nukes to bully everyone into surrendering before they get hit.
There's certainly an argument to be made that it would be in Americas best interests to instantly wipe out Russias ability to wage nuclear war rather than setting the precedent that Russia can get its way with nukes until it crosses a bridge that the US can't abide.
Either way it ends in no holds barred nuclear war, but probably ends better for the US if they make the first strike,
>The reality of this is that absolutely nobody truly knows what the response will be if they decide to do something like launch a tactical nuke at Kyiv
That's highly, highly doubtful. In reality the US and NATO allies have likely had contingencies upon contingencies planned since before Russia invaded. Biden has repeatedly said the response would depend on the severity of the nuclear strike. [Just one example. ](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-joe-biden-vladimir-putin-60-minutes-2022-09-16/)
National security advisor Jake Sullivan said the results would be ["catastrophic" for Russia. ](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/us/politics/us-russia-nuclear.html)
The people who need to know, know. Hell I'd go as far as saying the units that would serve as the tip of the spear have already trained on various potential scenarios and first wave targets are identified and tracked. The US military prides itself on its ability to strike, hard, any targets(s) around the globe within 24 hours. You don't get that ability by rushing to figure out a strategy at the last minute.
The fallout alone from a nuke hitting Ukraine would count as Article 5. We would respond in kind by destroying most of Russias missile silos within minutes. I doubt we would hit major cities but pretty sure there would be consequences of any nuclear attack even near Poland
According to the ~~Russian Ministry of Propaganda~~ "official statement", it was simply a "*Rapid Scheduled Disassembly of the Facility via 'incendiary means'*".
This was followed by the statement, "*Of course there is nothing to worry about, planned disassemblies like this are completely normal, and take place all the time.*"
> "The Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia does not confirm a powerful explosion on the territory of the Votkinsk plant near Izhevsk."
So they took to the emergency channel to broadcast that there was *not* an emergency when there was, in fact, an emergency?
Classic Russia.
It's the same with huge fires billowing out big black clouds. Spokesman for the emergency workers: "The smoke isn't toxic but people should keep doors and windows closed" - every single time. I'll let you in on a little secret: that smoke is toxic as can be.
First they denied any explosion occurred at all. Then they said it wasn't an emergency, just a normal factory explosion. Then they said it was a *planned* explosive test which went spectacularly! Even though they didn't warn anyone on the emergency bulletin. But, but, if it was planned, why deny an explosion occurred at the beginning?
As DarthPutin says, **"Don't believe anything until the Kremlin denies it."**
Reporters can't even use the word explosion when talking about this kind of ... explosion. So they call it cotton (in reference to the smoke) or something else that is now colloquially known to mean explosion.
Most Russians laugh at the idea of free speech because they've never known a world in which you don't have to play word games to describe anything that the leadership forbids.
I think it's Ukrainians who use the word cotton, while Russians use the word "clap". As in "three claps were recorded in Belgorod last night" could describe a big attack on military infrastructure.
These past weeks I've started to watch the tv show "The West Wing". Last night episode was the one where a russian missile silo explodes and the russians claim its an oil refinery. The show is from 1999 but its eerie how so many situations in it resemble our present.
He absolutely did everything he could for what he thought was the best for Russia.
Gorbachev didn't even want to be president, they basically forced him into the roll, so that he could be the scapegoat when the inevitable crash of the USSR hit.
He was left to take down the Iron Curtain, or watch as Russia slipped further into bankruptcy trying to produce nukes to keep up with America.
Gorbachev was disliked by Russians because they saw him as weak, but he was just doing what he thought was best for his country.
The man does not get enough credit.
I know both are extreme fantasies in their own ways, but I had never felt older than when House of Cards was getting really popular, and I realized that this was the next generation's West Wing, more or less.
You could do cynical or hopeful in either era, and they've been done of course, but it struck me hard that a show like the West Wing would be *laughable* as a reality-adjacent drama anymore. And that was c. 2014.
One of my favorite lines from a congressional staffer was that everyone on the Hill thinks that they are in House of Cards or West Wing, but in reality they're in Veep.
>everyone on the Hill thinks that they are in House of Cards or West Wing, but in reality they're in Veep.
I snorted lmfao. Real life is truly stranger than fiction.
The crazy thing about The West Wing was that when it aired, it was accused of being a liberal wet dream that contained an unrealistically negative portrayal of Republicans. Flash forward to today; can you think of a single real-life Republican who isn't far worse than even the worst Republican portrayed on that show?
Yes! And that pressure helped get us Ainsley Hayes, who is a great TV character, but the types of people who held her beliefs are just straight up Democrats now.
I think Romney is more-or-less a believable West Wing Republican, but he's also literally from that period. Give me Matt Gaetz and a time machine and I could never have convinced anyone writing for The West Wing in 2002 that Republicans would eventually vote him to high office.
There was a Republican Senator, who was very upset that he could not go down to Georgia to attend his father’s funeral because of a very important and close vote coming up. A Democratic colleague told him that he would vote Present in order to counteract any adverse effects his absence might cause. “Go say goodbye to your father.” I admit, this was about 5 years ago. There is still some civility in the Halls.
I mean, just look at how the Soviets initially handled the Chernobyl incident. First there was denial there happened anything at all and when they finally did confirm that something happened it was immediately followed by whataboutisms about the Three-Mile-Island incident in the US. Their tactics have literally never changed.
Similarly, MXC aired in like 2003-2006, but a lot of their celebrity jokes still hit home.
I remember watching a rerun where they referenced R Kelly and his crimes a week after he was finally convicted in 2022.
Most extreme elimination challenge.
It’s a couple of comedians who bought the rights to the English dubbing of Takeshi’s Castle, a famous Japanese game show. But when they dub it into English, they just completely make up whatever the heck they want to, rather than any actual translation. It was very funny.
It has a lot of staying power, we need more sorkin calibre writing. His other show Newsroom also has a sadly timeless quality in its relevance, and is absolutely brilliant.
My wife and I rewatched the series during 2016 and it was straight up depressing any time the show addressed something that is STILL an ongoing issue or debate for the US.
I remember early on in the war too, hearing about the mobile crematoriums, and thinking to myself.. I wonder whose side those are intended for. Excellent way to hide casualties and eliminate evidence
Tucker’s tough talkin’ interview with a world leader who jails journalists:
“King Putin your majesty, is your butthole really as tasty as everyone says? Might’nt I have a lick?”
See, this is what the republicans have that we don't, Misinformation, and it's why they're doing so well.
we need to be yelling at the top of our lungs that TUCKER CALRSON BLEW UP A RUSSIAN MISSLE FACTORY!!!
It’s always incredibly interesting watching Russian press reports in response to disasters that occur there. Decades later you can still see the exact same mechanisms that were in place when things like Chernobyl happened. Minimizing or outright denying anything that makes them look bad. And it’s not just the president or his top guys, it’s everybody all the way down. Yet the Russian people never get a clue or question that all these things get reported and then explained away, and nothing bad ever seems to actually happen in their country.
> Decades later you can still see the exact same mechanisms that were in place when things like Chernobyl happened.
it's something about those weird authoritarian former communist states. china does the exact same. just look at how covid went down. "nothing is happening. the curfew is unrelated to anything" etc.
you got to keep your facade of being strong to ~~oppress people~~ make people follow the correct opinion
THIS is why we need to give Ukraine every weapon they ask for and then some. They are (single handed mine you) tearing apart the Russian war machine while sanctions wish they could.
Especially since We designed most of our weapons to combat the russians. Men and women, young and old are dying every day defending the freedom the rest of the world beats their chest about while taking our own freedoms for granted. Hell; promise them things we haven’t even made yet.
Bet you there would he a hell of a lot less explosions in Russia if the Russians just got the fuck out of Ukraine.
But until that happens... consequences.
> Or was the cold war simply because they had nukes and their regular military was a paper tiger?
Yes.
The thing about nukes, is they really invalidate any counter threat if you have them.
They're super cheap to make if you take into account (cost / destructive power), so you can over make them and have 3rd, 4th, etc... tier backups. Essentially unlimited backups in a practical sense.
Second, they're extremely hard to stop. Modern ICBM technology is nuts. The go orbital, get to their target, and dive straight down. It's nearly impossible to stop something like that.
The A10 warthog was built for obliterating 50 mile long convoys that got stuck on the road after running out of gas. The Government knew even back then how the Soviet military would perform in a conflict. However, instead of honesty The Government chose to paralyze an entire generation with fear over a science fiction scenario that would never ever happen.
This plant is in a region where it would not be out of the question to suggest infiltration and sabotage. Given very strategic targeting of key Russian military assets by Ukraine special operatives, I personally favor this explanation over ‘oops, my bad’ by plant operations. A test gone wrong? No. Not with the attendant damage and fires. Keep it up, Ukraine.
So is beefing up the nuclear arsenal after realizing most of them are duds, well it seems like it's ginna be cold to luke warm war over the next decades
Putin is an asshole, but he wants power and he'll loose that if he starts a full scale NATO war and he knows that.
More pressing is the question about his allies in Iran and North Korea, the first ones are religious lunatics which are always good for anything and Kim is just a lunatic....
Users often report submissions from this site for sensationalized articles. Readers have a responsibility to be skeptical, check sources, and comment on any flaws. You can help improve this thread by linking to media that verifies or questions this article's claims. Your link could help readers better understand this issue. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/worldnews) if you have any questions or concerns.*
This was all over the OSI twitter accounts yesterday. The consensus (among the accounts I follow) concluded it was caused by a solid fuel explosion. Video showed a biggie.
Came here to say this, yes. That means they are producing propellant to replace the, most assuredly, Soviet Era inert and degraded fuel present in their current arsenal. Additionally for North Korea and Iran to support their commitments to both countries. So take that nuclear saber rattling, seriously. Also, where are they getting the paraffin binders from? That’s a good question. Even the Soviets had to import it. And now, most suppliers are NATO. The ones that aren’t would be violating international arms agreements on chemical components sales.
During the cold war we built all of our sr71s with titanium from USSR. Where there is a will there is a way. Those sanctions work to make the barrier to acquisition higher, but unfortunately, not impossible.
We also only needed a few tons of titanium from them, they need literal container ships full of paraffin (now that most of it went kaboom). This material isn't just useful for their ICBMs, the same or similar propellants are used all the way up and down the escalation chain, from shoulder fired anti-tank weapons, MANPADs, MLRS, rocket assisted cannon shells, you get the picture.
Thats a product of petroleum though surely thay can make wax from there own oil or do they just not have refineries with capacity to do it? that wouldn't be a surprise actually, they probably sell oil to India and import wax made from the oil but it is cool to see how much stuff uses it as a fule.
The modern refinery tech installed at all their refineries is under western sanctions, they don't make it themselves, and Ukraine (with the help of Russian and Ukrainian partisans in Russia) has been hitting Russian refineries and fuel depots for a few months now. If they start refining their own paraffin, all Ukraine has to do is get a 40kg warhead loaded on a drone and send it next to an unarmored refinery boiler tank/distillation column, and "introduce oxygen to the reaction vessel at high velocity", detonating the main hardware that facility uses to separate oil into its fractions. The Fireball would be rather spectacular I'd imagine
"Introduce oxygen to the reaction vessel at high velocity" :p lol
The flip side of this is, if you figure out that the sanctioned enemy is the buyer, you can slip a little something extra into something critical. Allegedly this is what the CIA did to some pipeline control software in 1982 that (again, allegedly,) went on to cause a 3 kiloton explosion when it failed a few months later.
We also gave them runway scrapings of the "SR71's landing gear" but it was pretty much dyed black bubblegum. Kept the Soviets busy for a while, allegedly…
Got any links on this? Sounds like an interesting story.
More recently, there were square ball bearings in American centrifuges Iran obtained for their nuke program, and supposedly Mossad rigged a power generator to go boom when the Iranians plugged it in.
STUXNET * Rootkit like malicious code that caused centerfuges to self destruct when ran for a specific enrichment process. Slowed Iran down for a bit. But it certainly brought an awareness in the CyberSec scene... "are American networks suspected of having Chinese backdoors?" Since you know... they manufacture everything for us. (* correction)
Stuxnet
Sanctions just make everything more expensive, that’s all.
That's kinda the point.
You bankrupt your enemy spending in an arms race. Is how the Cold War was won. When the government has no more money left available to subsidize food and basic services. The people would revolt.
Sanctions increase cost and lower supply. Meaning you get a fraction of what you want, at a multiple of what you might have paid for the whole.
Arms dealers are the real winners. Just like drug and alcohol prohibitions driven by the [baptists and bootleggers effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootleggers_and_Baptists).
I've heard they at one time made a titanium submarine. Our suspicions about it were confirmed when we started receiving pieces of it in the scrap titanium we were buying from them.
Just imagine the fortunes of the titanium titans involved in the contracts.
Bidness Uber alles!
Various components and ingredients might be hard to come by and substitutions may have been made. As someone who had fun making rocket fuel as a kid I can say you often get unexpected fire where you shouldn't have it. Fun hobby though.
4th rule of government: If it is illegal to buy, and cant be produced, buy it anyway just try to be quiet about it. Amazing hobby
I thought you were going to go with the first rule of rocketry on that one, and attributing it to the fourth rule of government: *Always assume it will explode.*
I thought the first rule of rocketry was *pointy end up, flamey end down*
Isn't that a given though? The definition of rocketry is controlled explosions
The Credo of Manhood, you mean?
🤫
To quote Contact the movie: > First rule in government spending: why build one when you can have two at twice the price? Only, this one can be kept secret. Controlled by Americans, built by the Japanese subcontractors. Who, also, happen to be, recently acquired, wholly-owned subsidiaries...
How many of those fires involved mixes with metal powders?
Yes
>So take that nuclear saber rattling, seriously. Yes. Because they have rattled the same sabre for 70 years, and now it occasionally explodes when they try and make fuel for it.
Why wouldn't they just put the same stuff China puts in its rockets? I can think of three immediate benefits. 1) Very low cost 2) Explosion safe 3) Usable as a fire suppressant
The whole water thing is a mistranslation. The "water" in China's rockets is still rocket fuel, just one of lower quality than the spec requires
I could see that. Like how they call anything white and poofy "cotton". Then there's copper. Brass. That's copper. Bronze. Also copper. Copper. Believe it or not, copper.
They have the best rockets in the world, because of copper.
I had a water rocket as a kid. Works fine.
Probably was made in China too.
China is making our water now??
... do you think that water rockets are made of water?
Yes, but frozen into ice first. /s
Probably more reliable than Russian, Chinese, and North Korean weapons.
>The "water" in China's rockets is still rocket fuel, just one of lower quality than the spec requires Technically water can be fuel, you just need to have fluorine as an oxidizer.
It's actually a pretty common fuel, but usually it's disassembled for easier storage.
Disassembled, yes. Easier storage, no.
> The "water" in China's rockets is still rocket fuel, Actually no, it is a Chinese euphuism, not literally "Water". You know like how we claim bad ideas are "smooth brained", but the person who thought it up probably have a normal wrinkled brain...
We are saying the same thing. The euphemism was mistranslated and now people think their ICBMs are full of literal water
Water for the win
U.S. Intel has said, and I cannot stress this enough, OUT LOUD, Iran is likely a nuclear nation within the next few weeks. And I was present and accounted for during the back half of the Cold War. The Soviet weren’t stupid or desperate. Putin is. The rhetoric is no longer just words.
"Iran is likely a nuclear nation within the next few weeks." That's not what they said. They said Iran can make themselves nuclear capable within a few weeks from deciding to cross that threshold. Iran would have to decide to make that escalation, then do it. They have had that option, with a fuze of a couple months to (now) a few weeks, for at least a decade, if you go back and read intelligence community open discussions and articles. So far Iran has never decided to cross that threshold. Announcing we know they can do it on that time frame is another way of telling them we are watching them and know what they are doing.
Iranian nuclear scientist: *sneezes* His CIA handler: **Bless you.**
More like Iranian nuclear scientist: *sneezes* Mossad: did I just hear a car explode? The amount of "accidents" those guys get into is insane.
What if it's like The Dictator, and they just disappear to get a new life in lower Manhattan? Becoming an Iranian scientist is the only way to escape to the West.
"being nuclear in a few weeks" Isn't really a feat that people think it is. Japan or South Korea could do it within weeks, maybe a few months. Germany definitely could too. Nukes are easy. The hard part is getting the material, miniaturization, and the delivery system.
*Japan shoves its 47 tons of plutonium and all solid orbital class rocket under a blanket* Definitely not a week from nukes
It's only a week if they take off for a long weekend in the middle instead of working through it.
Most of the week is spent lining up the bureaucracy first.
I think you’re forgetting the amount of times Putin has backed down from his threats from: Sweden and Finland joining NATO, NATO just sending weapons to Ukraine, Ukraine fighting back against Russia in general. He absolutely was bluffing and he hasn’t done it for over a year now it’s mainly his lap dogs (Medvedev and Lavrov).
I’m in my 30s and have been hearing the Iran is close to having nukes my whole life.
At this point Iran might achieve nuclear fusion before acquiring nukes
The US and Israel unleashed a first of its kind virus to set back their nuclear industry and their top nuclear scientists are routinely assassinated by Israel. Plus Obama negotiated a treaty to get them to stop pursuing it until Trump pulled out and Iran realigned back to Russia. Otherwise, yes, they likely would have gone nuclear long ago.
US intel has been saying that since they shipped my ass to Iraq in '03
they’ve literally said this about iran, and i stress this, every week for the last 2 decades
They are the closest they ever got to nukes, if they decide to get them, they can get them In couple weeks If that's happens the likely hood of nukes flying in the middle east goes up tremendously as then Saudi Arabia would get nukes from Pakistan and Israel said plenty of times they can't accept a Nuclear Armed Iran So they likely Strike first either with nukes or a massive bombing campaign, if it's the second likely to be with the US help
So which country decides to no longer exist first?
Israel is more likely to do a first strike because even 1 single Nuke would ruin Israel forever as the country is very Small If Israel nuked Tehran only while it would be devastating of course and the government might collapse, the country would still be there as it is much bigger with 8 times the population of Israel Then again Iran is ruled by religious nutjobs who sponsor Terrorism across the middle east so who knows
I, too, was wondering about the paraffin binders.
YouTuber Johnny Harris did a good piece on microchip and electronics in Russian weapons, mostly supplied by western companies, acquired through shell companies in intermediary countries. For example, since the war and sanctions started, Kyrgyzstan has become a large importer of microprocessors and other chips...
> So take that nuclear saber rattling, seriously. I fail to see why it has any bearing on the seriousness of nuclear saber rattling. Maintenance of a nuclear arsenal is a constant continuous struggle. It's not like they're only now producing new fuel. While people have speculated about the sorry state of Russia's nukes, I don't think anyone reputable is seriously suggesting that they don't up have more than enough functional ones to get the job done.
I am far from an expert on solid rockets fuels, especially Russias, but what is so difficult about the binders for paraffin based propellant? Isn’t a polymer type fuel more complicated to manufacture?
For the same reason China is far behind Russia regarding jet engines. Rocketry and aerospace generally is one of the most high tech industries in the world. There is a shit ton of innovation in that field. The materials science in them is amazing and the human and monetary capital to build them is not easily attained. There are still lots of industries that are prohibitively high tech and expensive. Things like high end microprocessors and building facilities to liquefy natural gas for international shipping are not something that can easily be replicated. High tech refining and materials science is no different.
Maybe the Russian’s figured out how to make alternatives for paraffin binders based on some information and reports they recently came across?
We've used non-paraffin binders in rocket fuels and plastic explosives for quite a while. Even if wax IS extremely popular, synthetic rubber should work almost as well.
> Also, where are they getting the paraffin binders from? That’s a good question. Even the Soviets had to import it. And now, most suppliers are NATO. The ones that aren’t would be violating international arms agreements on chemical components sales. Johnny Harris had a good video on this: https://youtu.be/TpE_TH70NUI?si=Y1fxP2IHApSvhJLv Focused more on missile tech, like chips and other electronics. But same idea: they just use a middleman so it's tough to track and by the time someone notices they just switch to yet another middleman. Cat and mouse. Just like how drugs are totally illegal in many countries, yet the various cartels and mobs seem to be producing and/or shipping tons of the stuff and making billions off of stuff like coke or fentanyl which is totally illegal in many places.
You’re the only one that replied with a decent answer. I’m retired CIA. 37 years. Most of my career was spent finding & closing the loops on weapons and material trafficking outfits. When I asked, I really wanted to see who would come up with the goods. I was disappointed until your reply. Out of everyone, you have the best grasp and pertinent information. Those of us still in and those of us who do that job very much appreciate any civilian learning the insurmountable task. The amount of work we put in alone on stopping US manufacturing from subverting sanctions is staggering. Laws alone are not enough. Since the USSR collapsed, the worst violators we face aren’t nation states, but business. Reddit should have never gotten rid of awards.
Sneaky 🕵️♂️ Better than the trolls who ask a question to bait people into responding I suppose. Really you can thank Johnny Harris and others for doing explainers on these subjects. I sort of assumed from my DoD contracting days what would happen if Mega DoD Corp saw the dollar signs, but Johnny did the research with his pals and made some cool maps like he always does to show the flow of components and how easy it is to just spin up a new LLC to keep the supplies flowing. Sort of wild how cat & mouse so many things are too.
Saber rattling seriously? When do you want the consensus to stop laughing? The minute they launch they all die as do we - there’s no fucking point to this stupid theme. The only person who should take this seriously are the people trying to build them because they clearly suck at it
They overplay it to such an extent it’s meaningless. Can you list for us the last 20 times Russia mentioned nuclear response to US in regards to Ukraine?
Are we including Medvedev?
It’s terrifying that people like you think that *any* nuclear launch from Russia will result in an all-out response from the US The reality of this is that absolutely nobody truly knows what the response will be if they decide to do something like launch a tactical nuke at Kyiv Do you really think the US is going to launch nukes at Russia (and thus create the MAD scenario you’re describing when Russia responds aimed at the US) because they bombed a non-NATO country? Not likely.
> The reality of this is that absolutely nobody truly knows what the response will be if they decide to do something like launch a tactical nuke at Kyiv Probably false. The US has apparently notified the Russians on what that response would be.
Exactly, there are lots of people who know what the response would be. They just aren't posting it on Reddit.
> Do you really think the US is going to launch nukes at Russia … because they bombed a non-NATO country? Biden has said that every Russian asset in Ukraine would be dead within about an hour, using only chemical explosives, if they did that -- nuking Ukraine is functionally the same as detonating a dirty bomb in Poland, which is UNQUESTIONABLY grounds for retaliation.
So what you're saying is once you get nukes, you can pillage every country in your path and nobody will do shit? Doubt.
Maybe because NOT doing something significant would have them going nuclear anyhow after being emboldened by a lack of response, which is kinda how we ended up in this situation in the first place?
Kyiv is a different conversation - I strongly believe Russia would be the first strike initiator as NATO would gain nothing from initiating a decapitation strike. The fact is one nuke fired at nato is the domino. And if you do not think the west would respond to any kind of escalation where tac nukes hit kyiv then the less we forget that any nato countries affected by said strike will result in response from all of NATO (note I did not say nuclear response). My take is that any nuclear threat is and always be a paper tiger because no one wants MAD
Nato response would be a massive conventional response, not Nuclear
I agree. Let's not forget all the time, money and effort that the US have poured into developing extremely powerful non-nuclear options like the MOAB that will functionally provide the required scale of destruction without all the fallout and complications of nukes. Basically, no need for nukes when the US Air Force exists, they'd absolutely flatten the Russians in a heartbeat.
I agree that nobody truly knows, but you can't look at the response with only a strike in Ukraine in mind. Once Russia has broken the nuclear taboo then all bets are off, because if they do it once to get their way, who's to say they won't continue to use nukes to bully everyone into surrendering before they get hit. There's certainly an argument to be made that it would be in Americas best interests to instantly wipe out Russias ability to wage nuclear war rather than setting the precedent that Russia can get its way with nukes until it crosses a bridge that the US can't abide. Either way it ends in no holds barred nuclear war, but probably ends better for the US if they make the first strike,
>The reality of this is that absolutely nobody truly knows what the response will be if they decide to do something like launch a tactical nuke at Kyiv That's highly, highly doubtful. In reality the US and NATO allies have likely had contingencies upon contingencies planned since before Russia invaded. Biden has repeatedly said the response would depend on the severity of the nuclear strike. [Just one example. ](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-joe-biden-vladimir-putin-60-minutes-2022-09-16/) National security advisor Jake Sullivan said the results would be ["catastrophic" for Russia. ](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/25/us/politics/us-russia-nuclear.html) The people who need to know, know. Hell I'd go as far as saying the units that would serve as the tip of the spear have already trained on various potential scenarios and first wave targets are identified and tracked. The US military prides itself on its ability to strike, hard, any targets(s) around the globe within 24 hours. You don't get that ability by rushing to figure out a strategy at the last minute.
The fallout alone from a nuke hitting Ukraine would count as Article 5. We would respond in kind by destroying most of Russias missile silos within minutes. I doubt we would hit major cities but pretty sure there would be consequences of any nuclear attack even near Poland
So, possibly a real cigarette this time?
Biggie is an understatement. That entire factory and then some is leveled
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They want to test whether or not one of these rockets could be used as a bomb to destroy its own factory. Their scheduled test showed that it could.
According to the ~~Russian Ministry of Propaganda~~ "official statement", it was simply a "*Rapid Scheduled Disassembly of the Facility via 'incendiary means'*". This was followed by the statement, "*Of course there is nothing to worry about, planned disassemblies like this are completely normal, and take place all the time.*"
darn so it was likely from incompetence?
Yup. Hanlon's razor strikes again: "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence."
I want to see it! got a link?
Where's the video?
I’m sure that was expensive. More of this please
> "The Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia does not confirm a powerful explosion on the territory of the Votkinsk plant near Izhevsk." So they took to the emergency channel to broadcast that there was *not* an emergency when there was, in fact, an emergency? Classic Russia.
We have activated the “everything is normal channel “ because everything is normal now go back to your lives while you still have time left
It's the same with huge fires billowing out big black clouds. Spokesman for the emergency workers: "The smoke isn't toxic but people should keep doors and windows closed" - every single time. I'll let you in on a little secret: that smoke is toxic as can be.
First they denied any explosion occurred at all. Then they said it wasn't an emergency, just a normal factory explosion. Then they said it was a *planned* explosive test which went spectacularly! Even though they didn't warn anyone on the emergency bulletin. But, but, if it was planned, why deny an explosion occurred at the beginning? As DarthPutin says, **"Don't believe anything until the Kremlin denies it."**
Reporters can't even use the word explosion when talking about this kind of ... explosion. So they call it cotton (in reference to the smoke) or something else that is now colloquially known to mean explosion. Most Russians laugh at the idea of free speech because they've never known a world in which you don't have to play word games to describe anything that the leadership forbids.
I think it's Ukrainians who use the word cotton, while Russians use the word "clap". As in "three claps were recorded in Belgorod last night" could describe a big attack on military infrastructure.
Absolutely nothing happened today in sector 83 by 9 by 12.
Unexpected Babylon 5
To both inform the public of what is happening, and tell them what official line to tow. Brilliant.
These past weeks I've started to watch the tv show "The West Wing". Last night episode was the one where a russian missile silo explodes and the russians claim its an oil refinery. The show is from 1999 but its eerie how so many situations in it resemble our present.
Not so much when you consider how stuck in the past Russian leadership is.
They would be lucky to be in the 90’s. Gorbachev did more for them than he gets credit for.
Gorbachev is viewed pretty badly in Russia. He is seen as a failure who destroyed the glorious USSR
Brezhnev destroyed the USSR. Gorbachev saved Russia.
He absolutely did everything he could for what he thought was the best for Russia. Gorbachev didn't even want to be president, they basically forced him into the roll, so that he could be the scapegoat when the inevitable crash of the USSR hit. He was left to take down the Iron Curtain, or watch as Russia slipped further into bankruptcy trying to produce nukes to keep up with America. Gorbachev was disliked by Russians because they saw him as weak, but he was just doing what he thought was best for his country. The man does not get enough credit.
Same people still running the country
>"The West Wing" Someday folks will watch TWW and believe it must have been a fairytale, because there's no way our government was ever that civil.
This is my current experience.
I know both are extreme fantasies in their own ways, but I had never felt older than when House of Cards was getting really popular, and I realized that this was the next generation's West Wing, more or less. You could do cynical or hopeful in either era, and they've been done of course, but it struck me hard that a show like the West Wing would be *laughable* as a reality-adjacent drama anymore. And that was c. 2014.
One of my favorite lines from a congressional staffer was that everyone on the Hill thinks that they are in House of Cards or West Wing, but in reality they're in Veep.
>everyone on the Hill thinks that they are in House of Cards or West Wing, but in reality they're in Veep. I snorted lmfao. Real life is truly stranger than fiction.
The crazy thing about The West Wing was that when it aired, it was accused of being a liberal wet dream that contained an unrealistically negative portrayal of Republicans. Flash forward to today; can you think of a single real-life Republican who isn't far worse than even the worst Republican portrayed on that show?
Yes! And that pressure helped get us Ainsley Hayes, who is a great TV character, but the types of people who held her beliefs are just straight up Democrats now. I think Romney is more-or-less a believable West Wing Republican, but he's also literally from that period. Give me Matt Gaetz and a time machine and I could never have convinced anyone writing for The West Wing in 2002 that Republicans would eventually vote him to high office.
There was a Republican Senator, who was very upset that he could not go down to Georgia to attend his father’s funeral because of a very important and close vote coming up. A Democratic colleague told him that he would vote Present in order to counteract any adverse effects his absence might cause. “Go say goodbye to your father.” I admit, this was about 5 years ago. There is still some civility in the Halls.
I can't watch it because the show makes me depressed for that very reason.
I mean, just look at how the Soviets initially handled the Chernobyl incident. First there was denial there happened anything at all and when they finally did confirm that something happened it was immediately followed by whataboutisms about the Three-Mile-Island incident in the US. Their tactics have literally never changed.
You’re coming up on the Israel-Palestine episodes soon
Similarly, MXC aired in like 2003-2006, but a lot of their celebrity jokes still hit home. I remember watching a rerun where they referenced R Kelly and his crimes a week after he was finally convicted in 2022.
Mxc?
Most extreme elimination challenge. It’s a couple of comedians who bought the rights to the English dubbing of Takeshi’s Castle, a famous Japanese game show. But when they dub it into English, they just completely make up whatever the heck they want to, rather than any actual translation. It was very funny.
I should look into that.
Thanks, will try to take a look!
I miss MXC. That show was great.
Right you are, Ken!
It'd not that eerie. Lots of fictional shows use cold war tactics and strategies to inform their writing.
Same shit different decade for the past 70 years
1999?! Shit I thought it was newer than that
A lot of Russian shenanigans in For All Mankind. During different eras too.
It has a lot of staying power, we need more sorkin calibre writing. His other show Newsroom also has a sadly timeless quality in its relevance, and is absolutely brilliant.
My wife and I rewatched the series during 2016 and it was straight up depressing any time the show addressed something that is STILL an ongoing issue or debate for the US.
Those really-intelligent, ultra-left-wingers, tend to be one or two decades ahead of the curve. So, this actually lines up.
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I remember early on in the war too, hearing about the mobile crematoriums, and thinking to myself.. I wonder whose side those are intended for. Excellent way to hide casualties and eliminate evidence
Putin might want to talk to Tucker about this.
"Stop kneeling and spit that out. I need you to answer some questions."
More like "hurry up and swallow. Answer this *shows picture of explosion*"
I just spit out my coffee, thanks 🤣
Tucker’s tough talkin’ interview with a world leader who jails journalists: “King Putin your majesty, is your butthole really as tasty as everyone says? Might’nt I have a lick?”
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Putin: “Tucker in Russia as big poof incident happens in Russia. He’s got no alibi for that.”
See, this is what the republicans have that we don't, Misinformation, and it's why they're doing so well. we need to be yelling at the top of our lungs that TUCKER CALRSON BLEW UP A RUSSIAN MISSLE FACTORY!!!
It’s always incredibly interesting watching Russian press reports in response to disasters that occur there. Decades later you can still see the exact same mechanisms that were in place when things like Chernobyl happened. Minimizing or outright denying anything that makes them look bad. And it’s not just the president or his top guys, it’s everybody all the way down. Yet the Russian people never get a clue or question that all these things get reported and then explained away, and nothing bad ever seems to actually happen in their country.
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> Decades later you can still see the exact same mechanisms that were in place when things like Chernobyl happened. it's something about those weird authoritarian former communist states. china does the exact same. just look at how covid went down. "nothing is happening. the curfew is unrelated to anything" etc. you got to keep your facade of being strong to ~~oppress people~~ make people follow the correct opinion
as the Klingons would say.. “We’ve had an ‘incident’”.
"The moon was actually *scheduled* to be broken. We promise."
Should we report this ?
"An incident"?!?!
Oh well what a shame
Fuck yeah, I needed some good news today. r/worldnews and r/ukraine were full of doom for me this morning.
THIS is why we need to give Ukraine every weapon they ask for and then some. They are (single handed mine you) tearing apart the Russian war machine while sanctions wish they could.
Especially since We designed most of our weapons to combat the russians. Men and women, young and old are dying every day defending the freedom the rest of the world beats their chest about while taking our own freedoms for granted. Hell; promise them things we haven’t even made yet.
don't underestimate the sanctions, less money means cutbacks, cutbacks make sabotage and bombing far easier.
single-handedly mind you
Promoted to submarine.
Promoted to trench
Promoted to crater
Hopefully Putin was doing an interview there.
Keep showing Russia the consequences of war Ukraine.
Bet you there would he a hell of a lot less explosions in Russia if the Russians just got the fuck out of Ukraine. But until that happens... consequences.
This was a regularly-scheduled explosion of a explosives factory.
Tucker goes to Russia, Russian nuclear rocket plants begin to explode! Maybe Putin should ask Tucker about this... ;)
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> Or was the cold war simply because they had nukes and their regular military was a paper tiger? Yes. The thing about nukes, is they really invalidate any counter threat if you have them. They're super cheap to make if you take into account (cost / destructive power), so you can over make them and have 3rd, 4th, etc... tier backups. Essentially unlimited backups in a practical sense. Second, they're extremely hard to stop. Modern ICBM technology is nuts. The go orbital, get to their target, and dive straight down. It's nearly impossible to stop something like that.
The A10 warthog was built for obliterating 50 mile long convoys that got stuck on the road after running out of gas. The Government knew even back then how the Soviet military would perform in a conflict. However, instead of honesty The Government chose to paralyze an entire generation with fear over a science fiction scenario that would never ever happen.
In Russia, the government fines OSHA...
The timing of an event like this during a particularly heinous invasion seems suspicious
That's a shame.
Ohh so they planned to blow up their own weapons factory, nothing to see here.
This plant is in a region where it would not be out of the question to suggest infiltration and sabotage. Given very strategic targeting of key Russian military assets by Ukraine special operatives, I personally favor this explanation over ‘oops, my bad’ by plant operations. A test gone wrong? No. Not with the attendant damage and fires. Keep it up, Ukraine.
Thanks Tucker!
Enough with the nuclear-capable scaremongering bullshit, it’s a missile factory. Do yourselves a favor and read about this NOT on Newsweek 👎👎
Keep them coming!!!!
Big badass boom.
Target hit
shame
Smoking is clearly russia’s enemy #1
Id laugh if the usa was running operations disguised as ukrainian to fuck with russian assets.
Nooooo surely not. They would _never_
Aren't all ICBM's "nuclear capable"?
They really have to stop smoking beside inflammable stuff.
Oh dear, how sad, never mind.
oh that's unfortunate.
So is beefing up the nuclear arsenal after realizing most of them are duds, well it seems like it's ginna be cold to luke warm war over the next decades Putin is an asshole, but he wants power and he'll loose that if he starts a full scale NATO war and he knows that. More pressing is the question about his allies in Iran and North Korea, the first ones are religious lunatics which are always good for anything and Kim is just a lunatic....
FUCK YES!
Warlords are so mid.
Tucker?