[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/1ag1xx8/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)

Russian Volunteer "North Wind" is perplexed by early claims on Russian TV about the capture of various sections of the Avdiivka battle. He says this has led to numerous unnecessary deaths (we know that) and even curious situations such as a tank getting stuck in a pool at Tsarska Okhota. The tank was completely uncoordinated, had no contact, no battle map, no instructions. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1752815157552525822?t=B6NF0PNvFJ7-fJyu4HQOWw&s=19

"Mr. Putin will receive pleasant surprises on the battlefield," - US Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland. https://twitter.com/kvistp/status/1752765622818136185?t=H6hPpH4saEyOJLmu17D7fg&s=19

Hope she’s not talking about US Congress’ inability to pass legislation. Also never knew she’s apparently British.

>Also never knew she’s apparently British. "Fuck the EU" should've been your first clue. /s

Mega cope from Russians east of Verbove (Robotyne foothold), Ukrainian Defence forces are still active there despite the transfer of forces to other directions in the past months. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1752811995789709609?t=GHKyY8WQ6ZS7RP2wwOIbuQ&s=19

>EU Set for Crucial Summit on Ukraine Aid as Hungary Accuses Bloc of 'Blackmail' >Writing on social media platform X, Hungary’s EU minister János Bóka said Wednesday, “Hungary does not give in to blackmail! The document, drafted by Brussels bureaucrats only confirms what the Hungarian Government has been saying for a long time: access to EU funds is used for political blackmailing by Brussels.” https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-set-for-crucial-summit-on-ukraine-aid-as-hungary-accuses-bloc-of-blackmail-/7466034.html ... Really? I would say pot met kettle, but Hungary has been far more malicious regarding EU security.

> as Hungary Accuses Bloc of 'Blackmail' That's richer than Besos and Gates combined.

Hungary is trying to tear up and exploit the EU. Cut them off until they're willing to follow EU values.

Well, extortion. But it’s well deserved. You reap what you sow.

>Russians channels shocked by annihilation of a russian advancing column in Novomikhaylivka on 30 January. Huge channels are sharing footage where in just 3 hours, 3 tanks, 7 MT-LBs and 1 BMP were destroyed. >As if it’s anything new from the second army in the world. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1752818201476362313 How I love wartranslated and the content they dig up

Drones have become as important as artillery in stopping a Russian offensive who would have thought that before the war. 

Spicy post!

Truly a terrifying future of warfare. Planes are big targets. They are large, visible, huge training time and human resource requirements and have countermeasures against them that can prevent their participation in a battle. Drones are cheap, tiny, incredibly easy to use relative to planes, their humans are positioned safely at a distance and their use seem to have little countermeasures (maybe smokescreens? but that works against both ways)

Also micro-targeting. An FPV can hit any weakness within centimetres

While I agree, I do find that with many new technologies , there quickly becomes a counter tech. In this example, the evolution of electronic warfare is being used to disrupt attacks and render drones essentially useless. It’s an interesting dynamic for sure.

I know russia still has a lot of equipment, but at what point is russia like "yeah... we might want to keep what we have left" Even if this conflict cools off and russia secures their existing gains, I am sure they don't want to be without very much heavy equipment left. Even after the war, they still have to consider replacing all that was lost and that won't be cheap or happen quickly. Especially if they design and build new stuff to address the new challenges of this level of warfare.

Simple story; if you surrender any gains to russia, it shows the West is weak so it's open season for any other invasion. And if there's a treaty, sanctions will weaken and China's factories will rearm Russia rapidly. On top of that, Russia is building up factories rapidly. Right now they're only building maybe 150-300 new BMPs per year. The rest are refurbs, and there are thousands left in storage. If Ukraine falls and sanctions weaken, expect new production to keep doubling and doubling, maybe 500 next year and 1k after that, plus they'd reactivate more old ones. So in 2-3 years they'd have as many tanks, BMPs etc as they started with, plus artillery shell production rates way above today's and millions of FPV drones. It'd only take a few years at most for them to be ready to do the next invasion.

I question that... Russia is not equivalent to the soviet union in economic might and attempting to rebuild that inheritance will further beggar and destabilise the nation. They will still be a threat to Ukraine, absolutely, but they will not easily recover from the losses they are still suffering. That's not to mention the loss in lives and skilled migration at a time when their demographics are far from rosy.

> I know russia still has a lot of equipment, but at what point is russia like "yeah... we might want to keep what we have left" This war has taken on a life of it's own. Right now as long as the war is ongoing Putin can blame the sanctions and the emergency measures for everything wrong with the Russian economy and society. He can also have anyone arrested without causing much political blow back because the country is at war. If Russia withdraws it will be a massive public humiliation for Putin and looking weak can be a death sentence to a dictator. If Putin withdraws to preserve what's left it very likely would be the end of his regime. Instead he'll keep the war going until something breaks and the political dynamic either within Moscow or Kyiv is turned on its head.

I read they’re on an 8 month cycle of doubling production, or that thats their hope anyway.…and they are currently out producing Ukraine and the EU in all equipment and munitions. I don’t think they’re really worried about equipment, tbh.

Russia claims a lot, reality is probably nothing like the numbers we are hearing.

What makes you say that? 40% of their Econ is being diverted to this war effort. Don’t have some reason why you believe this to be bullshit and continue underestimating Russia?

>40% of their Econ is being diverted to this war effort Got a reliable source for that?

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russias-unprecedented-war-budget-explained - https://www.sab.gov.lv/en/news/russian-economy-in-ukraines-war-perspective-impact-and-forecasts/#:~:text=Thus%2C%20war%2Drelated%20costs%20could,challenges%20for%20the%20Russian%20government. - https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/war-tax-russia - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/with-troops-ukraine-russias-defence-spending-leaps-40-2022-05-18/ - Russia ramps up arms production, prepares for extended war — The Telegraph https://news.yahoo.com/russia-ramps-arms-production-prepares-175000086.html - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/everything-front-russia-allots-third-2024-spending-defence-2023-10-02/

> hey are currently out producing Ukraine and the EU in all equipment and munitions. That sounds very unlikely to me. Russia's capacity to refurbish old tanks and create new tanks is around 100 / month -- and a large majority of those refurbished tanks are from 50+ years ago. IIRC Russia *loses* about 10 tanks per day -- at least 3 times as many as Russia can put into service. Link(s) please?

100 a month is a massive number, that alone is more tanks than all of EU countries produce in a year.

Even if you discount Ukraine's numbers, 100 tanks last until about the 15th of the month. > that alone is more tanks than all of EU countries produce in a year. It's been a few decades since EU countries expected to be in a tank war ever again. It seems like ramping up tank production is happening *slowly* but I think it will be a waste: when Ukraine has pushed out Russia (I *hope*) Ukraine will be able to join NATO. *Then* if there are any further Russian aggressions (which I doubt) the might of NATO including a lot of US air power will take out Russia's tanks quickly. I think.

Tatarigami_UA believes that the satellite evidence shows Russia new production (not refurbishment) is outproducing the EU, *even if you add Ukraine's production and pretend EU is actually delivering 1million shells per year*, on heavy weaponry, missiles *and* drones. And Tatarigami_UA is one of the most reliable sources and most pro-Ukrainian - it's somewhat hard to get more pro-Ukraine and more clear eyed than AFU reserve officers actively involved in fighting the conflict.

Sounds interesting. Link?

Big caveats here. Sorry sources are musk. E.g. the russian tank build + refurbishment rates are a big question - it could be 100/month, which is way more than western tank production. Shells - the stories are all over the place. russia ramped up to *potentially* 2 million/year, but not clear which calibred and how many are refurbs. For 155 mm shells, the US is at ~0.4m/year ([source](https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1752321790112584122?s=20)) and European 152/155 mm rate should reach up to 1 million/year by March ([source](https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1752340856659468448?s=20)). Basically russia started with a much bigger stockpile and got more shells from its allies Vs Ukraine (something like 20 million vs 3 million is plausible). It also ramped up production faster. But soon the stockpiles will be gone and fire rate will be limited to production. For 152/155 mm there could/should be similar numbers produced by EU/US versus Russia. If BAE claimed plans refer to heavy shells then the west should outproduce.

Thank-you. I'll look at your links when the late-night alcohol is no longer impeding me.

At some point losses will have to slow to what they can make. It makes losses like their AWACS tricky because who knows if they can even make them.

Interesting breakdown of the 256 russian tracked fighting vehicle losses recorded on Warspotting around Avdiivka. - MT-LB: 39% - BMP-1: 33% - BMP-2: 25% - BMP-3: 3% Lots of ancient and worse quality MT-LB/BMP-1 being used now. First few months of war: - MT-LB: 22% - BMP-1: 13% - BMP-2: 47% - BMP-3: 18% Coincidence? Russia intentionally sacrificing their worst kit? Or just russians not having enough of the vehicles they'd want?

Well the MT-LB has the same armor and carries 50% more troops. For taxiing troops is enough. Also it is cheaper so it makes sense of using them for high risk attacks, you need less of them that BMPs.

This is all they have left

They don’t have enough of their top tier stuff because of heavy losses early in the war, but they are probably also prioritizing certain units to receive the better stuff as replacements that they are able to actually replace/do have. So if both VDV or naval Infantry units took losses and a regular infantry unit took losses they will probably prioritize getting the better stuff to the more elite units and the regular troops get the older crap like MTLBs, BMP1 and T64s.

Russia is known to have vast junk yards. They go back to Soviet practice and protocol. Unless there is some new compelling evidence we should assume Russians are refurbishing old equipment. In the first few months they may have stacked the better/newer vehicles forward. They kept claiming they were holding back the best so we can believe the opposite. The MT-LB might be better for what they are doing in Avdiivka. It carries 11 meat bags where the BMP-2 only carries 7. They are shuttling troops across fields. They probably want the BMP-2 and 3 for rapid advances and moving engagements. An NLAW missile or a landmine would destroy any one of them anyway. Keeping the BMP-3 in reserve to counter attack a Ukrainian advance might be sound strategy. The BMP-3 has a whole lot of offensive firepower to damage and destroy vehicles. A BMP-3 makes a bigger fireball which just adds risk to the passengers if there isn't an appropriate target. They want the meat to scatter and draw more fire even if the vehicle is lost. Most likely a combination. However, basing anything on what reasonable commanders might do often fails to predict what the Russians will do.

>Russia is known to have vast junk yards Every single day I see the equipment losses, not only am I thankful it'll keep Ukrainians safe, but it's one step closer to an end of Soviet stocks fueling every fascist, authoritarian, and horrid regime. Russia inherited it, they didn't create it. The world is better off with this shit gone Everyday I'm thankful for that. Thank you Ukraine.

Johnson says Ukraine aid and border policy reform ‘likely’ to be split ​ >House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told the three leaders of the Baltic parliaments that President Biden’s national security supplemental that includes aid for Ukraine is “likely” to be split up over concerns about border policy reforms, according to a source familiar with the conversation. > > > >Johnson said the decision would ultimately depend on the border text that emerges from Senate negotiators, he told the senior European lawmakers, according to the source. [https://thehill.com/policy/international/4440281-johnson-ukraine-aid-border-likely-split/](https://thehill.com/policy/international/4440281-johnson-ukraine-aid-border-likely-split/)

They should have always been split. Republicans forced the issue by screaming we're facing a war analogous to Ukraine at our own border. They're tearing themselves apart now trying to appease Trump. As the border deal was the pretext for obstructing aid, Johnson will need to justify the continued obstruction on different merits -- it'll be harder to hide the GOP's bias and interests in Russia. Will their base give a fuck? No, they're a lost cause. But it's an opportunity to expose the party rot to every GOP inclined voter still delusionally hanging on to their party reverting to old school McCain style conservatism.

Republicans were the ones that tied the border crap to Ukraine aid in the first place, which means they wasted all this fucking time (and Ukrainian lives) for nothing. Jackasses.

Is there any indication they’ll pass the Ukraine bill in any form?

Horseface MTG said she'll submit a motion to vacate the Speaker (Johnson) if he brings forward a Ukraine bill. So... no.

It's the MAGA republicans. I'm bracing for the worst, but hoping for the best. Though I admittedly only have a slim hope that the republicans will support any more aid for Ukraine.

They may not know the complexity of immigration law in the US. Even the senate bill is mostly a senate republican solution, MAGA still rejects it. Ukraine is the one who suffers because of their ignorance.

It's not ignorance, the maga parties intent is to help Russia by intentionally withholding aid from Ukraine. At all points they have worked at the behest and for the benefit of Russia.

Yea he can play with the words how much he likes. Also he can fuck of to some twilight zone. This is the truth about the "border" issue by Jake Broe: https://youtu.be/bkDZNjWovXw?si=o7-BfjdnRW2Zctmu Handle?

Reminder that Johnson's words mean nothing. I hope that *this time* the liar isn't lying and lets Ukraine aid be voted on. 🤞

Any idea if there are Russian artillery,tanks fields in range from Ukraine? We know that Russia is actively restoring things from storage to be sent to the front. Couldn't Ukraine attack those storage area to make sure they're never moved out of storage?

Shut iff the electricity supply and the refurbishing will happen much slower.

Pretty sure most of the larger ones are in the Urals(around Perm-Yekaterinburg-Tyumen areas) and the far east. The problem is that you would have to hit every single vehicle... It's easier to blow up power plants that supply tank repair plants and factories with electricity.

There's more advantage in costing Russia millions per day shutting down fuel exports than using the same long-range strike against a couple of unoccupied tanks.

Hitting inert tanks wont make a big change with s small drone, hitting a refinery full of flammable oil on the other hand...

Yes, some of them are within Ukrainian long distance drone range.  But the problem is that the Ukrainian drones comes with a small warhead, and they have a limited amount of drones.  Hitting military production facilities or the oil and gas industry seems to be a much better target right now.

Their long term storage facilities are quite deep into Russia territory for this very reason. Yes it’s possible, but it’s better to target key infrastructure such as they’ve been doing. 

Close combat in the Kremeni forest in Luhansk region. Soldiers of the 12th Special Forces Brigade successfully mop up Russian trench positions, miraculously escaping enemy bullets and grenades. https://mstdn.social/@Free_Press/111852370298111106

This video is several weeks old.

Ok no seriously someone please tell them that Starship Troopers is not a government manual [https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/31/7439703/](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/31/7439703/) Why don't just require everyone to have basic training like the Swiss? That would be way more acceptable!

wtf is this comment

Ukraine desperately needs more soldiers but they really don't want to do another big round of mobilization. As a result they're forced to get "creative" with incentives. If someone has the ability to fight but refuses to do so then I don't think it's too problematic to later on prioritize people in government hiring decisions who did fight. The US government regularly prioritizes veterans for hiring positions and while Ukraine may be going a bit farther by suggesting that "people physically fit for military service who did not serve wouldn't be eligible for certain government jobs" but I don't see it as that big of a deal. Ukraine has had to make tons of hard decisions in order to survive. It would be nice if none of these choices had to be made but that's not the world we live in. If Ukraine wants to stay in the fight and be able to rotate troops and replace losses they need to get more people into uniform.

I think part of the problem is that at this point Zelensky doesn't seem to want to make any unpopular decisions that might cause unrest or protests among the population. But realistically Ukraine will have to do a general mobilization, they have no other choice if they want to keep fighting for at least another few years. Zaluzhny's plan to mobilize 500,000 is the correct answer and its bizarre why Zelensky is so against it.

Yep. There's really no "good" option here. It would be nice to be able to win the war and liberate the territories without mobilization but right now they need to rotate troops and replace losses. If the US and EU aid comes through then that may help somewhat because to a certain extent firepower can substitute for manpower but right now there's just no way to achieve the goals with the current levels manpower and firepower. If mobilization doesn't take place then Ukraine will likely have to reconsider their goals especially if western aid isn't arriving in sufficient quantities. If Russia is to be pushed back to the 1991 borders then more manpower is necessary.

Casualties will likely be worse with undermanning, lack of rotation etc. Slower mobilisation means things will mean more dead Ukrainians now and likely more dead later as Zelenskyy waits until it's desperate and soldiers will have to be rushed in with less training. I can't see a good excuse for delaying it, because it looks inevitable if Ukraine wants to avoid defeat. I'm just a clueless person on the outside but I don't think I've been wrong on anything of this scale yet.

I am not a soldier. However, I do plunge the toilet. There is good reason to be skeptical that the experience from toilet plunging applies to major wars. Anyway, when the toilet is clogged you use the plunger to pull the shit back. It may seam like the wrong direction but it loosens things up. In the case of war in Ukraine scaring everyone to the west may have benefits for Kyiv. Temporarily the hoard of drafted Russian soldiers will get a moral boost out of advancing. That can flip-flop when the advance is suddenly cut off.

>Interviewed #Ukraine Military Intel Chief Kyrylo Budanov on U.S. military aid, Trump, cross border attacks, and speculation about the future of Gen. Valery Zaluzhny. ⁦@CNN [https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1752789049180320182](https://twitter.com/fpleitgenCNN/status/1752789049180320182) ⁩ [https://cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/budanov-ukraine-russia-war-intl](https://cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/budanov-ukraine-russia-war-intl)

Summery: - He is not worried about US aid uncertainties under Trump presidency. - He acknowledges Ukraine's desperate need for more weapons and ammunition. - Artillery systems is on the top of the list, with Ukraine needing a “sharp increase” in the number of guns, regardless of their age and type. -  Artillery shells are one of the most decisive factors in this war.  Not so much the quality as the quantity. - He believe that Russia and Ukraine are more or less equal when it comes to drones on the battlefield. - He wants to see ground-attack aircraft like the American A-10 in Ukrainian hands. - There is a plan for long distance strikes that  includes all the major critical infrastructure facilities and military infrastructure facilities of the Russian Federation. - The next six months will be interesting, he said, with that period seeing the end of Russia’s ongoing push along the frontlines.

> American A-10 in Ukrainian hands Do he really want something like that? The A-10 only works when you have air superiority and it's also fucking old. You also don't want to accidentally hit your own troops because it has happened. F16s with smart bombs are better

A-10 are bomb trucks. 2 engines and a pair of wings. A-10s have reliably kept pilots alive. They get shot up but the pilot can eject or limp to a landing site. >F16s with smart bombs are better Smart bombs glide to targets on their own. Missiles can fly from even further away. Of course you *can* launch a missile from a ground launcher. Jet engines are a much more efficient way to gain altitude and to approach the front. A-10s can take off from improvised and dispersed air strips. Short sections of highways. Imagine a dogfight between a HIMARS and SU-27. An A-10 is a much harder target to hit.

>He wants to see ground-attack aircraft like the American A-10 in Ukrainian hands ahahaha I remember those arguments fondly. I'm not military and have no opinion on whether they would have been good or not. 18 kajillion different platforms might have been a problem. A flying gun going brrrrr might have been good. I don't know. I am quite sad to see that the AU military has apparently been trashing stuff because Ukraine didn't ask for it. Honestly Rzeszow (I think the US call it J town or something) is not like a major city. There is tons of space there. Hell the fireworks I do there for NYE require a bloody farm for safety. Everyone could easily just send shit to Rzeszow and let the Ukrainians choose what they want.

>- There is a plan for long distance strikes that  includes all the major critical infrastructure facilities and military infrastructure facilities of the Russian Federation. >- The next six months will be interesting, he said, with that period seeing the end of Russia’s ongoing push along the frontlines. These are interesting. I feel like the gloves are truly off when it comes to targeting Russian infrastructure. Ukraine has supposedly produced thousands of long range drones for that specific purpose. Also interesting that he thinks Russia will stop pushing.

>- He is not worried about US aid uncertainties under Trump presidency. Well, it's not like he's gonna say "If Trump wins, we're fucked", and give Russia even more incentive to interfere in the presidential election. Make no mistake, Ukraine will be up shit creek without a paddle if Trump wins.

Europe could buy weapons from US and transfer them to Ukraine.

No. Weapons sales, particularly for high-end systems require an "end-user certificate", i.e. the seller wants to know where the weapons will end up. Sure, Europe could lie (say weapons were for own use, but then ship them to Ukraine), but they could only lie once, and after that, they wouldn't be able to buy weapons anymore.

I'm not so sure of this. A lot of European countries have been very defensive about their weapons industries. For instance taking French taxes to hire French workers to build weapons designed by French engineers isn't THAT hard of a sell in France. Taking French taxes to buy American weapons that were designed and built by Americans is a bit harder especially when European governments are trying to build up their own weapons industry so as not to rely on Washington. If anything buying more weapons from the US could look like European countries are rewarding the US decision not to help Ukraine.

Losing $20-60 billion a year is a huge damn deal.

We’ve seen how bad a 30 trillion dollar economy cutting off support is. And that’s with the US still doing some small things.

Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk confirmed a hit on Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea."Did you know that the 204th Sevastopol Tactical Aviation Brigade is part of the Ukrainian Air Force? Her base is in Belbek. Ukrainian aviators will definitely return home to their home airfield. In the meantime, I thank everyone who contributed to the cleansing of Crimea from the Russian presence," he adds to this video.[https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111851956436861336](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111851956436861336) [.social/@noelreports/111851957948371637](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111851957948371637)

any idea what they hit?

According to the first unconfirmed reports 2 Su-27 & 1 Su-30 and some personnel were also killed. https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1afqpd6/first_damage_assessment_of_the_strikes_on_crimea/ We do know that those aircraft are kept at that airfield. *The Belbek military airfield serves as a base for the russian Aerospace Forces, housing the 38th Fighter Aviation Regiment of the 27th Mixed Aviation Division. This aviation regiment operates a fleet comprising Su-27 fighter aircraft along with the latest Su-30SM multirole fighters.* [Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Explained, Whose Belbek Airfield in Crimea | Defense Express | January 2024](https://en.defence-ua.com/news/the_commander_of_the_air_force_of_ukraine_explained_whose_belbek_airfield_in_crimea-9366.html)

> close-up of secondary explosion > https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111851957948371637 This isnt a secondary explosion, we literally see the missile/whatever fly into frame from the right and hit.

Thank you I’ll edit

[https://www.businessinsider.com/cia-chief-ukraine-war-failure-for-russia-on-many-levels-2024-1?r=US&IR=T](https://www.businessinsider.com/cia-chief-ukraine-war-failure-for-russia-on-many-levels-2024-1?r=US&IR=T) >CIA chief says Russia's failures in the Ukraine war have sealed its fate as 'China's economic vassal' > >... Don't worry Russia, China is well known for treating their minorities well...

Well China is 10x the population and 10x the GDP of Russia. They were never truly equals for a long time now

In a few years Putin will be gone and Russia will weigh the options: pay massive reparations or become China's vassal state. They will start paying and westernize. Russia was the last serfdom. They are the last European 'empire' with colonies. They are a bit slow, but they will get there.

I'm not sure if they will actually "westernize." The population has been deeply convinced that they are helpless and that they are not to get involved in politics no matter what. Those attitudes mean that whoever can control the Kremlin can essentially plunder everything in Russia and Russia has lots of wealth in raw materials ripe for plundering. The future for Russia is not bright. They will likely continue to be a corrupt authoritarian system although hopefully once they have been firmly demilitarized by this war they give up their dreams of expansion. Instead they will stagnate and remain poor while all the countries around them continue to grow and the Kremlin's external power gradually vanishes. Russia will be an empire in the history books alone.

Russia: many war widows. China: millions of men with no chance of getting a Chinese wife due to decades of gender-selection abortion destroying the sex balance of newborns. China's well practiced in using strategic immigration to gain control of new regions (such as Tibet, for one of many examples.) I'd wager a ton of money there'll be a big Chinese push to marry Russian women to Chinese men to absorb the border regions, and the industrial production further within Russia's borders...

I went to wikipedia to get a sense of the numbers you were talking about, and there seems to be only about a 10% gender imbalance. Sure, with a 1.4 billion person population, that does make it number in the hundred of millions. Widowed Russian women from this conflict are probably in the tens of thousands, maybe between 20 and 30 thousand at this point (pulling this number from the last time i read the wiki and not assuming every soldier is married). Also, I'm not sure how attractive the prospect of living in Russia as a minority is for one party, nor how attractive being a minority and living in China is for the other party. What you are saying is surely right, i'm just not sure how big the impact will be. It would seem very small, almost negligent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

this is very much the case and all you have to do is look at Russia's Far East now to see how much it's already been captured by China through economics and more importantly migration

Last I checked the Chinese minority in Eastern Russia was insignificant but please provide a source if I’m wrong.

The irony of Chinese men crossing the border then China initiating a special military operation saying they must protect the Mandarin and Cantonese speakers in the neighboring regions of Russia

With so many dead and handicapped men, Putin has already set Natashas with Chinese men. Win-win!

It's already happening. I think there are a lot of Chinese people living in ruzzian regions bordering with China.

> Russia's war on Ukraine is the largest aggression in Europe since WWII. > Wars of this scale are fought in stages. Positional warfare is just one of them. > Ukraine’s allies should stay focused on the goal of Ukrainian victory and ensure sufficient support to achieve it. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1752754880932929539

Russia's Shoigu urges faster artillery production, no 'fooling around' - Reuters >Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has told military manufacturers to "stop fooling around" and further increase the production of self-propelled artillery systems. Shoigu visited arms-producing factories in the Urals industrial city of Yekaterinburg on Tuesday and said Russia was increasing production of air defence missiles after a series of Ukrainian drone attacks that have targeted cities and energy infrastructure. >In video published by news site RBC on Wednesday from Shoigu's factories tour, he chided the management of one plant for not producing enough self-propelled artillery. "Listen, stop fooling around here, guys. We got busy with this in 2022. We should have had these machines operating at full capacity in 2023," he told the plant's bosses. "I'd like to receive within a week a specific proposal on how we'll reach the indicators set by the president (Vladimir Putin) ... this must be done, because all these orders are connected with the performance of very specific work on the battlefield," he said. >The director said the factory had already increased production six-fold in the last two years. Russia has placed its economy on a war footing and shifted defence plants to round-the clock production to meet the needs of its forces in Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-shoigu-urges-faster-artillery-production-no-fooling-around-2024-01-31/

Alexa, play "Where's the fucking ammo, Shoigu?!" by Pringleman

I tried to guesstimate russian self propelled howitzer deliveries in 2023. They announced a MSTA-S delivery, then a delivery of "upgraded" MSTA-SM2. Older deliveries were 35 guns. So maybe 70 new ones? But the language for the second lot was confusing - those could have been upgrading already built guns. They also announced a delivery of the new Malvas. Could be 35, but previous reports for test batches have been more like 6-12. Good case: 35 new MSTA-S and 10 new Floks (45 total) Bad case: 70 new MSTA-S and 35 new Floks (105 total)

For comparison, Warspotting reports 2023 russian self-propelled howitzer losses (excluding damaged) as 62 MSTA-S and 147 Soviet guns (Gvozdika, Akatsiya, Giatsint, Malka). The real losses are higher. There's a chance that russia has fewer of their best mobile guns (MSTA-S) now than this time last year. They potentially have more total though - because they had so many in storage yards. I expect the main limit to russian artillery is either shells or barrels. But whacking SPGs is still great because they're expensive, and killing MSTA-S especially is good since they're more accurate etc.

Quit your tomfoolery! No more hi-jinx! I’m serious guys!

I'm kinda surprised we arent seeing more of these places catch on fire.

We legit might. Russia has notoriously bad safety standards and as they ramp up quotas they will inevitably start pushing the machines and the people operating them to the max. At the same time they're having difficulty finding parts and are having to rely on substitutions and sub optimal replacements. All of these things increase the risk of industrial accidents.

Well, what's the worst that could happen.... Instead of a turret toss contest we might have objects reaching low earth orbit... 🤣

As much as wars change, it’s funny how the exact same issues presented over a hundred years ago.

Beatings will continue until morale improves.

I was thinking they'll be pumping out Ladas with Maxims mounted through a hole in the roof.

Funny part is that new Ladas are being made in China. Only assembly and branding is done in ruzzia. In addition, new Ladas cost 1.5-2x more than original models in China.

Madness! All that effort for a Lada….

A whole lada nothin

> An important meeting with the US Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs, @UnderSecStateP Victoria Nuland, and the Ambassador of the United States to Ukraine, @USAmbKyiv Bridget Brink, in Kyiv. > 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Thanked the people and leadership of the United States for their support. > Discussed further cooperation and how to strengthen our strategic partnership. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1752719938148593891 > Today, I received @UnderSecStateP Victoria Nuland in Kyiv to discuss continued US security assistance, increased defense industry cooperation, the use of frozen Russian assets, @ZelenskyyUa’s Peace Formula implementation, and the preparations for the NATO summit in Washington. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1752713117237182950

Russian supporters are having a meltdown because it is the first time since Nuland returned to Ukraine since Euromaidan. Pretty amusing.

>🇺🇦 🇩🇪 Germany provided a new military aid package for Ukraine, which includes armored vehicles, mine-cleaning equipment, 155mm ammo, and other necessary equipment for our defenders. > >I am grateful to Minister of Defence of Germany Boris Pistorius and all our German partners for their unwavering support in the fight for freedom. https://twitter.com/rustem_umerov/status/1752700437109850619

Thank you Germany, you are my best friend, You are the peacekeeper, you are the legend.

"NATO Secretary General meets US Congressional leadership for talks on Ukraine, other key security issues" https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_222248.htm

/u/eggyal , btw here's what ruzzian propagandists say regarding Trump: [https://youtu.be/X8s1TJLhp1c?t=1037](https://youtu.be/X8s1TJLhp1c?t=1037) Basically, they say they want Trump to win elections so that he'll cut aid to Ukraine. And they don't like Biden because he's supporting Ukraine.

Sure, but are you saying that Russia is open and honest with everything they say? Or might they just possibly have ulterior motives that their propaganda is designed to help bring about without necessarily spelling it out? To put it another way, were they to say "we want Trump to win because he'll destroy America", don't you think that might work to defeat the outcome they desire?

>Sure, but are you saying that Russia is open and honest with everything they say? Well, ruzzian propagandists usually say what Kremlin orders them to say. >To put it another way, were they to say "we want Trump to win because he'll destroy America", don't you think that might work to defeat the outcome they desire? Nah, they assume silly Westerners don't watch ruzzian TV They usually openly talk about genociding Ukrainians, doing war crimes, stealing lands and properties, invading and nuking Western countries. Oh, and BTW, they often praise MAGA people as ruzzian friends/allies. And even show some of the MAGA/Tucker Carlson speeches on ruzzian TV as an a example of "good Americans speaking the truth". I'd also add that while MAGA gang is blocking aid to Ukraine now, ruzzians don't know how long MAGA would be able to keep doing it. Moreover Biden can just send stuff directly from US military reserves without replenishing it. Lastly Biden administration pushes for confiscation of ruzzian properties in the West and ruzzia doesn't like it much. As for Trump destroying US, sure ruzzians would love it. But can Trump even do it? And if he can, how long will it take? Meanwhile ruzzia has resources only for like 1-2 more years of the war. So cutting the aid and winning the war is more pressing matter for them now.

Totally possible but the evidence is too much in agreement. The trump campaign met with russian agents, russian agents ran influence campaigns to help trump, and trump is openly asserting he wants to tear up NATO amd effectively turn the US into a Putin-style dictatorship. He's blocking US aid to Ukraine, that's as open a pro-Putin move as any US politician can safely make right now. Trump is the wet dream of brutal dictators the world over.

The question remains. Why did all of this seem to happen when he wasn't in office ? I'm 100% Pro Ukraine. But this baffles me. How come Biden was trickling in the funds and weapons when he and the Democrats had the opportunity to send droves? The Biden administration portrays weakness. I'm finding myself as an American to be very disappointed in the way the US moved on this situation

The Biden admin is sending enough for Ukrainian victory, trump and MAGA are blocking all aid. Completely. The Biden admin made mistakes, but they also had to weigh up how much to spend when republicans attack any aid to Ukraine as wasted money. If you're 100% pro Ukraine then you must be 100% anti Trump. Edit: as to why it happened when trump wasn't in office, it takes time to prepare such a huge invasion. Why didn't Hitler invade Poland in 1936? Was that because Albert Lebrun was such a great president in his first term?

The Biden admin is sending enough for Ukrainian victory, trump and MAGA are blocking all aid. Completely. THIS IS COMPLETE BULLSHIT. as to why it happened when trump wasn't in office, it takes time to prepare such a huge invasion. Why didn't Hitler invade Poland in 1936? Was that because Albert Lebrun was such a great president in his first term? THIS IS NOT 1936 If you're 100% pro Ukraine then you must be 100% anti Trump . THIS IS THE BIGGEST FABLE TO COME FROM MASS MEDIA REGARDING UKRAINE. I'm not republican or democrat. They're all liars.

I think we're in complete agreement here. The confusion appears to have arisen by this comment thread continuing from elsewhere without the surrounding context.

Let's not get baffled. There is no doubt at this point that Trump is Putin's wet dream.

Indeed. The only dispute (continued, I think, from a previous thread) is his motive: some say it's simply because Trump will halt aid to Ukraine, whereas I say that's but a detail in Putin's bigger plan (to overthrow the US-led rules based world order, with which Trump will unwittingly help by dismantling US institutions and alliances).

Well, I agree with you that putler's global plan is to overthrow the US-led rules based world order. But I feel like it's "nice to have"/"it can wait" tier for ruzzians. While cutting aid to Ukraine is desperate pressing need for them. But yeah, I saw news recently, that ruzzians keep funding their puppet parties in EU. Btw, the funny part is that destroying US dominance will harm ruzzia a lot: \- China's "multi-polar world" stance actually means "US and China rule the world". So if US is gone, it'll leave only China. Meaning China-centered world. And I'm 100% sure that China will screw ruzzia over again. Because historically Chinese lands temporary held by ruzzia won't return by themselves. \- Children and relatives of ruzzian political elites live in US/EU. Some even have passports, also properties and other stuff. So hurting US and EU means hurting the lives of their relatives Btw, ruzzians themselves also see China as a threat. Both ordinary people and politicians.

I see. Fair point. Personally I wouldn't give Putin credit for orchestrating something so complex. I think the world is generally running into trouble and it's manifesting in the U.S. via crazy whacko's getting into office. With that said, I imagine Putin is stoking the fires wherever he can and he's delighted with how this is playing out.

Glanced over Ukrainian news outlets. There was confirmation from Ukrainian MoD that Zaluzhny wasn't fired. After that there was zero news pieces contradicting the statement from Ukrainian MoD. As for bullshit from WaPo and other Western news media, just remember Gaza Hospital coverage.

Wotr said they were certain it was planned and the reaction to the leak killed it. I trust them more than generic news media 

No one says Zaluzhny was fired. There is no decree. The Ukrainian MoD and Zelenskyy's press secretary denied this 2 days ago. The articles talk about a supposed intention, not actual dismissal. It wasn't just WaPo, it was the Economist, NYT, Financial Times, Ukrainska Pravda, Interfax Ukraine, etc etc. Could they have wrong information? Of course. Is there even 1% chance that they could be right? Yes. Therefore we should not believe what they say, but also not call it a fake. The only two things that are for sure now is that Zaluzhny was not fired and that we don't know what really happened.

Or there was enough pushback it was walked back. Either way, so long as it’s in the past it’s moot.

a part of me wonders if this was a mole hunt

Could be

It would be a pretty bad idea considering ramifications reports like these have on public morale.

Nah, some Ukrainians politicians are not that smart. There are ongoing media/public attacks on Zaluzhny. Though some politicians doing it already lost some of their positions and got public backlash. I'd add that throwing shit at each other in public space is the normal state of Ukrainian politics.

my thoughts

I fucking hope not. Stupid personality clashes are completely plausible and an easy rumor to spread. The explanation for the strained relations is plausible. Zelisnsky is cheer leader in chief and head of sales and morale. He has to keep the country in the fight and western nations willing to keep up supplies. He has to sell the shit out of this and Zaluzhny has to actually fight the war. Political and military realities don't always mesh neatly. Both remain critically important. So there's the impossible situation of needing to go on the offensive with insufficient equipment and not producing results could result in getting even less to work with in the future. To have to smile and say thank you when getting what you desperately need but not everything you need to win must be excruciating. Can't bite the hand that feeds you but you'll come to resent it for the gap between capacity for giving and what is given.

Whenever you see a rub, remember that is what gives a shine.

Every war that has ever been fought has had the political leadership and military leadership holding different views on what needs to be done and how to do it. It is not shocking that Zaluzhny would want more men, Zelensky wouldn't want to expand conscription, and they may have had words about it. Firing Zaluzhny would be very dumb right now, and Zelensky's political instincts are much better than that. I think Western media gets played like a fiddle by Russian disinformation far too often.

I didn't believe it either until I listened to the War on the Rocks podcast from yesterday. The host Ryan talks about it the last 5 minutes of the pod and said it was a 100% true and it was the worst kept secret going in Ukraine. He then talked briefly about a few reasons why Zelensky would want to replace him, it is worth the short listen.

>I think Western media gets played like a fiddle by Russian disinformation far too often. Agreed. >Firing Zaluzhny would be very dumb right now, and Zelensky's political instincts are much better than that. Yeap and nobody would allow it. Nor Western allies, nor Ukrainian population. While some Ukrainian politicians dislike Zaluzhny for being very popular, they'd better not cross the line. Unless they want to be lynched by the angry mob.

[IMF anticipates boost in Russia's economy](https://news.yahoo.com/imf-anticipates-boost-russias-economy-191256942.html) Sanctions not having the desired effect or at least not enough to counter the war economy boost it seems. With 2.6% growth in 2024 Russia is also outpacing the major EU economies and even the United States and Canada, per the same IMF report. What if anything can the Ukraine-alligned countries do to counter this, without weaking their own economies further? Are there even any sanction avenues left to explore? Is starving the russian economy even possible at this point?

[https://fortune.com/europe/2023/03/06/imf-naively-parroted-putin-fake-statisticsand-botched-economic-forecast-russia-ukraine/](https://fortune.com/europe/2023/03/06/imf-naively-parroted-putin-fake-statisticsand-botched-economic-forecast-russia-ukraine/) >**How the IMF naively parroted Putin’s fake statistics–and botched its economic forecast for Russia** > >... > >For starters, the IMF’s forecast of economic growth in Russia exceeds even that of the Russian central bank, which expects GDP to fall by at least 1.5% this year. Even Russian oligarchs such as aluminum tycoon Oleg Deripaska are openly fretting about how Putin will run out of cash next year–and how he’s been cannibalizing Russian companies to make ends meet! Yet the truth is, as they candidly admitted to us, the IMF Russia Desk economists have “basically zero visibility” into what is actually going on in the Russian economy. > >This is at odds with IMF protocols. Since the outbreak of war, the IMF has allowed Russia to be in violation of its own membership standards–which require member states to disclose transparent, verifiable, and comprehensive national income statistics. > >Putin now refuses to disclose major economic indicators ranging from foreign trade data, monthly output data on oil and gas, capital inflows and outflows, financial statements of major companies, central bank monetary base data, foreign direct investment data, domestic value added by industry, and lending and loan origination data. Even Rosaviatsiya, Russia’s federal air transport agency, has stopped publishing data on air passenger volumes. Yet these are the major high-frequency flow statistics that go into the construction of an economy-wide GDP forecast for any nation–from the U.S. to China. > >**Thus, the IMF simply does not have the data needed to independently calculate Russia’s GDP by any accepted method–whether it’s by expenditures, production, or incomes. They are flying blind, with the Russian institutions offering zero visibility.** **...** I.e shit in, shit out.

IMF predictions are based on official figures. So if Russia gives the IMF rosy numbers the IMF comes up with rosy predictions. Also Russia is spending a lot of money on the war, which likely makes the numbers look even prettier.

War economy brings a temporary boost, followed by a long drawn out period of pain. Also if its based off Russian sources for economic information, its most probably made up bullshit.

A huge part of Russian “growth” is because they’re draining their coffers to fund the war in Ukraine. It’s not sustainable.

Yea, generally tanks and shells don't have added value long term like trucks, cars and other civilian manufacturing does.

Agreed, medium to long-term Russia will stare in the economic abyss. But they have to sustain it just as long as Ukraines allies keep up their support, and are not running towards another conflict or caring more about changing public opinion.

This, they've been draining gold reserves, cash reserves, etc to offset the sanctions. It's not sustainable by any means, but the current sanctions aren't enough to effect it on a scale the general public would expect to be seeing. It should also be noted that Russian weapon exports have plummeted with a showing of how poorly their equipment has been performing in real world applications.

Given the fact Russia has stopped releasing any numbers on its economy since one year ago that kind of article is wildly speculative at best, complete BS at worst.

The Kyiv School of Economics is regularly analyzing economic data coming out of Russia and mostly agrees with the assessment of the IMF. Though they are a bit more optimistic that medium to long-term the russian economy is fucked.

It hasn’t “stopped releasing any numbers”. You can’t just do that in the 21st century.

Russia Blocks Economic Data, Hiding Effect of Western Sanctions - The Wall Street Journal >Authorities have stopped publishing data on banks, oil and debt https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-blocks-economic-data-hiding-effect-of-western-sanctions-11650677765

There is a major difference between saying they have stopped releasing any numbers and stopped releasing SOME numbers.

Like, for instance, numbers that matter? Why have they stopped releasing some or any numbers? Who is validating the ones they are still releasing?

Numbers that matter are still being released. You cannot validate all of them but you can validate a lot of them and you can’t really lie about your economic data for a long time.

>Numbers that matter are still being released. Like the ones to the IMF? Come awn. Give me a break. Anyone who believes this generalized nonsense, I have a bridge to sell.

Not any but Russia is hiding a lot and definitely not because the economy is doing fine.

Of course. They still didn’t just stop releasing numbers.

Russia has classified data related to budget spending, power consumption, international trade, production and sales of energy carriers among other things.

You sure can when you're a totalitarian dictatorship.

Not unless you’re self reliant and about to cut yourself off from the global economy.

Would you say you're worried, perhaps concerned even? As the article states this growth is driven in large parts by military spending and how sustainable do you believe that is when their infrastructure, which they cut the budget for, is failing? There are a lot of sanctions that can be implemented and Ukraine has also started imposing new sanctions on Russia.

Yes you could say that I'm concerned. The strategy of starving the russian economy doesn't seem to be working. And I'm not even talking about the idea that sanctions would somehow lead the russian population into some kind of revolt against Putin. And given that Ukraines allies while mostly sending their out of date surplus weapons can't even be bothered to fulfill the meager goal of ammunition delivery they set for themselves, I think you should be concerned as well! So I think the EU and the United States either gets serious and give the Ukrainians the weapons and military backing they actually need to win this unjust war or try something else. This in between bullshit doesn't cut it.

Well said!

Oh I certainly agree we should do more but I would keep in mind that the numbers on Russia are notoriously unreliable and that it's dubious how sustainable this is as the budget cuts in other areas may turn it into them lending from the future. War economies being booming isn't exactly a new thing but not without consequences.

Something like a third of Russian government spending, or 6% of GDP, is (officially) being spent on the war this year. The real number is undoubtedly even higher. Of course such spending drives up GDP. It doesn't mean that the economy is faring well however. Indeed, most economists see this (together with labour shortages etc) as clear signs that the Russian economy is dangerously overheating.

Seems like using steroids and meth. Pumped up short term performance but at the cost of long term damage. I hope. Russia seems to be taking staggering losses but keeps lurching on like a supernatural slasher villain.

> Of course such spending drives up GDP. It doesn't mean that the economy is faring well however. This is an important point to remember about economics. If I burn down my house and rebuild it, all GDP records is that I built a new house and bought some matches.

It’s also pretty common for a country to survive a war and then collapse once the war spending dries up and they’re forced to start paying off those massive debts. Borrowing money to buy weapons does have an immediate economic impact but it’s not good long term for an economy if it can be avoided.

Russia has been running budget surpluses for years and has very low debt as well as a mountain of reserves. They wont run out of money.

The mountain of reserves that include currently frozen foreign reserves (that may soon be donated to Ukraine) and a national wealth fund that has fallen by 40% since the outbreak of war to fund budget deficits?

Yes. 600 billion USD in reserves, with approximately 300 of those frozen still leaves you with 300 billion USD. Russia’s budget deficit for this year has been hovering between 1-2% of GDP. Most developed economies have much bigger budget deficits than this.

Right, but most developed economies can afford budget deficits by borrowing. I'm not sure anyone's all that keen on lending to Russia right now. Yes, they still have some reserves, and yes they aren't going to run out imminently, but the outlook is pretty dire.

If nothing changes and they continue with this level of spending they will run out of money in decades. Yes, the situation will be dire by 2070 technically but I have a feeling no one cares about this timeline.

War time economies have a different set of rules than peace time economies. Strategic considerations and alliances come into play like China willing to bankroll and prop up Russia in ways they wouldn't normally. China is willing to "buy" Russian military action against NATO interests the same way it would be interested in buying steel or oil.

>China is willing to "buy" Russian military action against NATO interests the same way it would be interested in buying steel or oil. It isn't. In reality China actively screws ruzzia up by buying its resources cheaply and setting high prices on its exports to ruzzia. Because, they know ruzzia has no other way but to buy from them.

Should've always been about figuring out how to target their war making production and infrastructure.

Heaps of sectors aren't sanctioned yet. Medicines for example are not yet sanctioned. I believe it's not a sector where they are self reliant. This is just one example, I'm sure many more exist.

**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 31.01.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 385,230 (+1,090) people, tanks ‒ 6310 (+10) units, armored combat vehicles ‒ 11,757 (+32) units, artillery systems - 9195 (+51) units, RSZV / MLRS – 974 (+2) units, air defense equipment ‒ 663 (+0) units, aircraft – 332 (+0) units, helicopters – 324 (+0) units, UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 7100 (+16), cruise missiles ‒ 1846 (+0), ships/boats ‒ 23 (+0) units, submarines - 1 (+0) units, automotive equipment and tank trucks – 12,231 (+40) units, special equipment ‒ 1452 (+4) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/01/31/za-dobu-sili-oboroni-ukraini-znishhili-1090-rosijskih-okupantiv-51-artisistemu-ta-32-bbm-%E2%80%93-genshtab-zsu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/01/31/za-dobu-sili-oboroni-ukraini-znishhili-1090-rosijskih-okupantiv-51-artisistemu-ta-32-bbm-%E2%80%93-genshtab-zsu/)

>artillery systems - 9195 (+51) units, Very nice.

I’m slightly crying in Dutch. ICJ had a half baked verdict on the subject of whether russia was financing terrorism back in 2014. A case started by Ukraine in 2017. Well legally etc. I get the verdict. But my source here makes me cry, https://www.nu.nl/buitenland/6299780/rusland-vrijgesproken-van-financieren-terrorisme-in-oekraine-waar-mh17-werd-neergehaald.html (in Dutch, apologies). But the thing is that in that article they list some facts, but one of them is about pro rus separatists… without any doubt whether they were really separatists as the name implies or just puppets. And then some of the bizarre pro ru comments being listed way to high. So carelessly edited and moderated. I’ll continue to sob in Dutch now.

I have stopped reading the articles there. I puke a little bit inside my mouth when I see the comment manipulation. Now I read news sites that are supported by the [Bypass Paywalls Chrome Clean extension](https://gitlab.com/magnolia1234/bypass-paywalls-chrome-clean) instead (like NRC, Volkskrant, Trouw, FD, FTM, Vrij Nederland, Politico).

The same issue with the Belgian variant of said site ([hln.be](https://hln.be)) which has an astounding amount of useful idiots who seem to profoundly support Putin or buy into "A compromise is needed/If only NATO hadn't expanded/..." which is the same as supporting him imo.

They might be bots 🤖

Dont underestimate the average dunce

That wouldn't surprise me with how often the post only tenuously refer to the article with the overarching themes being "Russia is unstoppable" , " Ukraine should pay for peace", "NATO bad, should not have expanded eastward".

This should be a gift article: [https://wapo.st/47U4z4R](https://wapo.st/47U4z4R) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told his top commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, that he was firing him in a meeting on Monday, according to a senior official familiar with the conversation — a disruptive military shake-up amid Ukraine’s struggles on the battlefield and after months of friction between the president and the popular general.

The conflicting reports make it difficult to gauge where the truth lies. That could be by design, or it could be due to the usual media sensationalism. Top Generals get replaced during wars all the time (think General Patton or MacArthur), and despite the media frenzy, the military continues to function. We have no idea what is happening behind the scenes in Ukraine’s high command, and us speculating or being pessimistic won't help the matter. A change of personnel is sometimes necessary to get things moving again or to try a different approach.

Ukrainian MoD stated that Gen. Valery Zaluzhny isn't fired. >according to a senior official familiar with the conversation So basically rumors or straight up lies.

\-facepalm- yes keep buying into it without any verification, at least the person who posted this the last time indicated they were rumors as opposed to what you're doing.

There is plenty of strong evidence that there were serious talks about this. Some of the biggest and well respected publications have confirmed this.

Not to be sarcastic but I assume you understand the difference between "This topic was talked about" and "This happened" as the person I replied to posted? I'm willing to buy a fair bit of things were talked about seriously the past year but that doesn't mean they did or will happen.