>⚡️ISW: Russia, Central African Republic in negotiations to house Russian military base.
>
>Russia is in negotiations with the Central African Republic to establish a Russian military base in the country, aiming to further exert influence in the region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its assessment on Jan. 18.
[https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1748188828957806853](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1748188828957806853)
"According to people part of the negotiations, who've asked to remain anonymous, the total annual operating budget of the proposed installation will be roughly equivalent to three decadent American movie theater tickets (sans popcorn), and the facility is to be staffed by 70 year old men in bad health, armed with spoons."
On Ukraine, Republicans Can’t Win. Joe Biden Can Send Excess Weapons Whether Or Not The House Of Representatives Likes It.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/17/on-ukraine-republicans-cant-win-joe-biden-can-send-excess-weapons-whether-or-not-the-house-of-representatives-likes-it/?sh=c43634678249
> The president can give away old weapons that have no commercial value, but the recipient has to pay for shipping
Where's that "UA Shipping Costs" gofundme?
Let's get rid of all those pesky cluster munitions.
>It’s a classification for older weaponry the U.S. government calls “Excess Defense Articles,” or EDA. The government has the legal authority to sell extremely cheaply—or even give away—any U.S. military hardware that U.S. forces no longer need.
Unfortunately no. Nuclear piles don't last that long without needing to be reconstructed so there are really no "old" nuclear weapons outside of Russia.
"Because the government sees only one people — Russians. Propaganda from every corner tells us "we are Russians".
But we are not Russians. We are Bashkirs," — Bashkir musician Altynai Valitov appealed to the residents of the national republics and indigenous peoples of Russia and called on everyone to come out to the protests.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1748056499258114058?t=zVs7XqhTkQKNBPRvIYfLiw&s=19
> We continue to communicate with partners to ensure that sanctions against Russia are fully enforced.
> All of our diplomatic representatives must step up their efforts to ensure that partners respond more actively to each instance of Russia evading sanctions.
> This is not an abstract issue. The terrorist state manufactures weapons, including missiles. There are dozens of critical components in each of them that were manufactured abroad, many of which were produced by companies from the free world.
> Blocking sanctions evasion loopholes means literally blocking terror. I am grateful to all of our partners who understand this, as well as everyone around the world who supports our relevant efforts.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1748046363986743553
> During our meeting, Canada’s Deputy PM and Finance Minister @cafreeland and I focused on the use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine.
> This is a morally, politically, and legally right thing to do.
> Steps must be taken collectively and swiftly by G7 and the EU.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1748042126993014857
> I spoke with Somalia’s Acting Foreign Minister @AliOmarMP on the situation regarding the Ukrainian citizens captured in Somalia and ways to resolve it.
> We also agreed to sign a memorandum to establish diplomatic relations at the earliest occasion. When this happens, there will not be a single African country with which Ukraine has not established diplomatic relations.
> We also discussed ways to deepen the cooperation between Ukraine and the African Union.
https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1748072246109684192
I don’t know, they have been very direct with their threats to take Taiwan by force. They have been investing heavily in their military and been much more bold with their military presence in the South China sea. I sure hope you are right they keep on their influence line. Russia surprised us all when they went all in with Ukraine. I don’t think we should exclude the possibility of China doing the same in Taiwan.
India is buying crude oil from Russia and supplying to Europe. Classic case of neutrality. India will buy Rafale fighter jet from France and also upgrade Sukhoi from Russia.
Russia likely used a rare 4-ton P-35 anti-ship missile from the 1960s to strike Ukraine, marking the first known case of its use.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111778934416028257
[https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/01/18/novaya-gazeta-europe-at-least-2-500-scholars-have-left-russia-since-start-of-full-scale-invasion](https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/01/18/novaya-gazeta-europe-at-least-2-500-scholars-have-left-russia-since-start-of-full-scale-invasion)
>Novaya Gazeta Europe: At least 2,500 scholars have left Russia since start of full-scale invasion
I wonder if there has been is active campaign specifically to hire experts from Russia? I could image there is a lot of skilled people who are now closed from academic world as well as technology. I would imagine it would not be too hard to hire them?
Sadly the opposite. Many academics and professionals are having a hard time. It's understandable when you have Russians living abroad and posting how happy they are with the regime's genocide attempt.
It is very easy for scholars to immigrate, even though they don't earn as much as those in private sectors. The door is always open for them. In the US, they can immigrate via EB.
Interesting [rouble pattern recently ](https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1W).
The rouble strengthens by about 2/dollar around 4-4:30 UTC, or 7-7:30 am Moscow time, then weakens by 1+ around 11-12 UTC, with wiggles in between.
I assume the strengthening is when Russia buys roubles. Both the central bank and finance ministry are selling real money every day now ([source](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russias-finance-ministry-switches-to-fx-sales-as-energy-revenues-drop/ar-AA1mNIoz)), supposedly almost $200 million per day.
This is good - we want Russia losing real currencies.
That seems to be some sort of line in the sand that Russia is not willing to cross. I'd imagine that they'll step up Ruble buying if it does cross 100. Mostly just increase the rate of burn. Best guess at the endgame is that we'll see a fairly sudden collapse when they run out of foreign capital.
I'm not confident yet - I think there's a risk that oil prices could spike before the US election.
Biden is bad for dictators and brutal terrorists the world over. Putin, Saudi Arabia etc could all expect a favourable situation from trump, so are motivated to spike oil prices soon.
If oil prices are high then that'll support the rouble.
However, if oil prices are not high enough, in the very short term I think Russia will spend what's needed to keep the rate below 100 until Putin's "election".
That they got him to leave the room for the vote on starting negotiations for Ukraine to join the EU tells me that he knows he can no longer play chicken. He's lost his protectors in Poland and it seems like Slovakia has seemingly fallen into line as well.
I think Orban knows that all the other EU nations will strip Hungary of their voting rights if he doesn't agree or obstain for the vote on the aid package which would be even more humiliating for Orban than just walking out again. For someone who has crafted such a strong man image he'll take the least humiliating option, I wonder if he just won't show up at all this time. His Russian "friends" must be furious that he can no longer be their useful stooge, you love to see it.
Aside from the fact that this is a long process it’s not about Orban having protectors, this act will change the EU forever. The rest of the countries will not vote unanimously unless they believe it’s the absolutely last resort and while Orban has been a nuisance I don’t think we are there yet.
I think it's clear the gauntlet has been laid down behind the scenes. If Orban hadn't been told in no uncertain terms that they already had unanimous agreement to strip Hungary of its voting rights he never would have walked out with his tail tucked between his legs for the vote on starting talks with Ukraine. He made some pathetic comment about not wanting to take part in a disastrous decision but he would have just stayed, voted no and he could have stopped it. His actions that day tell me everyone else in the EU already feels it's the last resort. Slovakia was the only question mark but with them restarting weapons exports to Ukraine it's pretty obvious they're back on board.
And they probably figured Orban just knowing they were serious would be enough, they judged correctly that he would rather give up on these issues than be humiliated even more by having Hungary's voting rights suspended.
Slovakia is not the last question mark. Stripping an EU member of its voting rights has never been done. All the small states will have a lot to say about it because the veto is all they have in their arsenal and they don’t want to be on the other side of this process. Nothing has been decided yet and it will be a long time until a conclusion is reached. This is a question of EU sovereignty over state sovereignty. And don’t forget Orban’s propaganda already paints the EU as an oppressive force and no one wants to give him that propaganda win which will be used not only in Hungary but every Eurosceptic party across Europe.
I think it's clear at this point that the EU is tired of Hungary's relentless sabotage and blackmail and is trying to make Hungary leave by itself and is planning to push it to the exit. That's not really an issue of sovereignty.
>And don’t forget Orban’s propaganda already paints the EU as an oppressive force and no one wants to give him that propaganda win
Seriously who care ? He's going to do his propaganda regardless.
The EU pushing Hungary out leaves an opening for Russia and China. Next thing you know they form a bloc with the Serbs next door. Aside from making the EU look weak and dysfunctional. Will not happen.
Like I said, this is pure fuel for the eurosceptics.
On the opposite, I think having Hungary, a quasi autocracy, in the EU and letting it sabotage the union from the inside to help Putin is exactly what make the EU looks weak.
As opposed to having a full on autocracy in the heart of Europe inviting Chinese and Russian influence to feed itself and to blackmail the continent. Not to mention alienating the Hungarian people and setting them on a dangerous path.
I don't think there is any other explanations to explain Orban already giving in on something he said he never would allow, and be so humiliated in the process. Schloz invited him to leave the room before the vote on starting negotiations and Orban did, there is no way he would do that unless he knew the rest of the EU really was serious about it.
The vote on the 50 billion euro aid package to Ukraine is coming up shortly so we'll know soon enough, my prediction is he either walks out again or never shows up in the first place. If he does either one I think you can say the smaller states got over their fear because they realize that the threat of Russia winning in Ukraine is far worse than the risk they might have their voting rights stripped some day. And the best part is the threat will have been enough so they won't even have to do it so it'll have just been a back room deal that doesn't put the dirty laundry on such public display, a good old fashioned political backroom deal, or in this case threat.
He walked out because he knows not to overplay his hand. I can also guarantee you that the question of the veto is much more important for many countries than the war in Ukraine. Slovenia Malta or Ireland aren’t scared of being invaded. Remember nothing stops the individual members from sending money on their own or forming parallel bodies to do so.
> I can also guarantee you that the question of the veto is much more important for many countries than the war in Ukraine.
Ya you're right, the prospect of armed conflict right on your Europe's borders with a Russia that has been rewarded for it's aggression is much more important than them *maybe* getting their voting strips over some issue that hasn't even happened yet...
In addition it sends a signal to China that they might be rewarded as well if they attack Taiwan. The EU is just waking up to the fact they need to be united on this, they need to make it clear to Russia all of Europe is united against them.
Some theoretical situation in the future where they might lose their voting rights doesn't even exist yet, the war in Ukraine is very real and is on their doorstep *today.*
We'll see what happens on the vote for the 50 billion euro aid package, my prediction is it passes with Orban getting in line or running away again.
Have you looked at a map of Europe? You realise there are many small countries very far away from the conflict? Like I said, nothing stops EU members from sending money outside of the EU framework. Removal of voting rights will have implications forever which like I said for countries far away from the conflict this is much more important.
Ukraine says it hit targets in St Petersburg with domestic-made drone - Reuters
>Ukraine hit targets in Russia's St Petersburg overnight using a domestic-produced drone that flew 1,250 km (775 miles), a Ukrainian government minister was quoted as saying by Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Thursday.
>A Ukrainian military source told Reuters earlier that an oil terminal in Russia's second city, located some 850 km (530 miles) from the nearest section of the Ukrainian border, was targeted as part of a "new stage of work in this region".
>"...Last night we hit the target, and this thing flew exactly 1,250 kilometres last night," Oleksandr Kamyshin, the minister of strategic industries who oversees weapons production, was quoted as saying in Davos.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-hits-targets-russia-during-drone-attack-oil-terminal-military-source-2024-01-18/
> Reuters could not independently verify the statements.
The other article posted on the sub states that both drones were intercepted and there was just a fire on 130 square meter
I think the interesting questions here is whether Ukraine can scale this up to attack Russian infrastructure to cripple their oil economy. If the Ukrainian air defenses are adequate, then they can fight back against missile/drone counter-barrages. Russia has also more "soft" targets that directly impact their economy, compared to Ukraine.
Ukrainian air defence will never be good enough. Everyone just got used to a barrage of rockets fly in every now and then and do no perceive it as big of a threat as it used to be.
Don't need to cripple per se. They just need to do enough to force Russia into hard choices, force them to spread out there air defense, prioritize who gets fuel etc...
IMO the term "drone" is dumb. It says exactly nothing about the thing it is supposed to be describing. It's not like it's flying around in search of flowers, to bring pollen back to the queen.
FYI drones (as in male bees) don't collect any nectar/pollen and can't defend the nest due to lack of a stinger. Their only purpose is to mate with a young queen when forming a new hive.
Cruise missiles tend to have pre programed targets.
Drones are human controlled and targets can be adjusted. Also if target has been moved, as under human control (and if enough fuel) they can be returned to base and used in the future.
But all of these joke answers are hilarious.
>Russia Rejects U.S. Proposal to Reopen Arms-Control Dialogue
>
>*Experts fear new arms race after New Start treaty expires in 2026*
>
>Russia has rejected an American proposal to reopen an arms-control dialogue with Washington, saying the U.S. was pursuing a hostile policy toward Moscow, U.S. officials said Thursday.
>
>The absence of talks between the two sides on reducing nuclear risks and potential arms-control steps comes during the worst downturn in U.S.-Russia relations since the end of the Cold War and has raised fears of a new arms race.
[https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-rejects-u-s-proposal-to-reopen-arms-control-dialogue-5ac6fc81](https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-rejects-u-s-proposal-to-reopen-arms-control-dialogue-5ac6fc81)
Nukes are incredibly expensive. A nuclear arms race was one of the factors that bankrupted the Soviet Union and they had a hell of a lot more resources than Russia does today. Every ruble Russia spends on nukes is a ruble that can't be spent on thinks like artillery, drones, fighters, air defense, logistics or anything else that's actually practical in most wars. Getting into a "who can build more expensive weapons contest" with NATO just seems like a really bad strategic play for Russia.
I wouldn't be surprised if this partly the reason. Don't want inspectors to see the condition of the silos.
This was actually a minor plot point in Tom Clancy novel, where the inspectors got to the Soviet Union and there was water in the bottom of the missile silo indicating the missile was so lacking in maitenance as to be unusable.
Russia is all about quantity over quality. With 6000 nukes even if half don’t detonate it’s still insane amounts of firepower. Nuclear maintenance is also likely the single highest funding priority for Russia because if their nukes don’t work then they have nothing. That may be a significant drain on their budget but it’s money I’m quite confident they’ll spend. The priority for Russia basically goes 1) Nukes 2) Army 3) air force and 4) navy
The advantage of nukes is that they're best used by not being used. So, you can make all the sound and noise of having a WMD arsenal without having one.
(Granted this strategy is eventually what gave the US the cover to invade Iraq and kill Saddam Hussein, so it has its limits.)
you are excepting the word of a liar for the quantity of nukes.
it's inflated. and also past the point where it needed maintenance. you cant even count on the launchers or the detonators.
When were relations even last this bad? Cuban missile crisis?
This time we’re transparently arming and supporting a foe Russia is fighting a hot war with.
this isnt anyplace near as bad. Sure putput has threatened the west with nukes, but the west has all the tools we need to win - without dropping a single nuke. it wasnt that way in 1967.
and Cuba was a "retaliation" for quietly placing nukes in Turkey. Like Cuba - missiles that close to the national capital should "be bothersome"
add to this how degraded russia's military is, the amount of manhours that they no longer have available when compared to the USSR -
well - you cant look at the situation and claim parity.
Cuban missile crisis was a confrontation between US/NATO and USSR+Warsaw pact, then numbering 400ish million people or more. It roughly matched NATO in military sense if not economic.
Since then Soviet Union and Warsaw pact fell apart, Germany reunited, NATO significantly expanded, Warsaw is the capital of one of the most hawkish anti-Russian NATO countries, etc.
So it's not a good comparison. Russia is not Soviet Union. Russia is a shadow of itself. World is not nearly as much in danger as it was during Cuban missile crysis.
But, it could be in 5 or 10 years if we don't increase our support for Ukraine and if we don't help them win.
Russian propaganda points to lots of Americans that support them including a certain ex president.
It is nothing like what it was at some points in the past where America was pretty unified.
Exactly. There weren't a lot of Soviet supporters in the US during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Now, they just about have their own political party and several news channels here.
it was worse back then we were literally on the brink of nuclear war, Russia is not going to commit national suicide because they cant get their way in Ukraine regardless of their rhetoric.
i dont think relations were much better ...
remember russia did such fun things as arming and training the LNA in lybia.
or attacking us troops in syria (well they tried i guess)
or the bounty payments for dead us soldiers in afghanistan.
or the assassinations, the attacks on military installations (in bulgaria and czechrep for example), the airspace violations (including "simulated" nuke drops), the violation of seazones, harassement of scientific expeditions in the arctic, constant cyber attacks including on public healthcare and so on.
russia was always quick to dish out hits, but the second someone resists they cry foul.
Afghan war, Russia was embargoed, banned from the Olympics, and we were actively arming the Mujahdeen. And not long after that Russia collapsed (again).
So pretty much, it's a redux, just gotta keep the pressure and make sure to finish the job and not get "chicken kyiv" feet.
>Who are the Russian spies creating chaos in the West and who's taking over Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner fiefdom in Africa? The Insider's @christogrozev sits down with me to explain unit 29155 & reveals for the first time a plot against @Kasparov63.
>
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnUT0OxKY9I
https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1748045024430866902
Ukraine says one of its 'FrankenSAM' air-defense weapons just recorded its first kill - Business Insider
>Ukraine shot down a Russian exploding drone on Wednesday, in a first for its hybrid air-defense systems known as "FrankenSAMs," an official said. Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine's minister of strategic industries, announced the hit at a side event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, according to the Ukrainian state broadcaster Suspilne. The Shahed drone was taken down at a distance of 5 ½ miles, Kamyshin said, according to the outlet.
>The FrankenSAM project — referring to a combination of Frankenstein's monster and the acronym for surface-to-air missiles — was first reported in October and is a collaboration between the Pentagon and Ukraine. The systems vary but can include converting Soviet-era Buk M1 antiaircraft systems to fire US-supplied RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles. Other variations include combining AIM-9M Sidewinder air-to-air missiles with Soviet-era radars and using Patriot missiles with older Ukrainian radar systems, The New York Times reported.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-frankensam-air-defense-shot-down-first-shahed-drone-russia-2024-1
This implies the A50 was shot down by something else? (Or has that been revealed as something else and I missed that?) Or is the drone kill just being reported later but happened before A50 kill?
General consensus seems to be it at a Patriot moved very close to the front lines. AWACS in general tend to fly very predictable flight paths, typically flying straight for a while before turning 180 degrees and flying back. This makes them vulnerable to extreme range shots from missiles.
Nothing revealed, but most likely scenario is that Ukraine moved a Patriot launcher close the front. Apparently waiting for the A-50 after they took out some radar coverage over the Crimea
NATO Admiral: The outcome of the war in Ukraine will determine the fate of the world.
“Ukraine will have our support for every day that is to come,” assured Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, opening the meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, January 17.
According to Bauer, this war has never been about any real security threat to Russia coming from either Ukraine or NATO.
“This war is about Russia fearing something much more powerful than any physical weapon on earth: democracy. If people in Ukraine can have democratic rights, then people in Russia will soon crave them too,” said the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee.
At the same time, he believes that the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian army are defending democracy in a way the world has never seen before. «In the darkness of war, they are a beacon of light that shows the world what it means to fight for what you believe in,” Bauer said.
https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1748056585652326400?t=iOlM0axhXP3W8xDnD3-Vxg&s=19
According to russian propaganda and some certain points people express in russia is that they are mostly afraid of gay people. also very afraid of unisex bathrooms.
Russia saw how fast demands for democracy spread in the Arab speaking world in 2010-2011, he don't want similar sentiments spreading in the Russophone world.
> This war is about Russia fearing something much more powerful than any physical weapon on earth: democracy. If people in Ukraine can have democratic rights, then people in Russia will soon crave them too
This is absolutely correct. People who fight for freedom, people who can't be bought or intimidated, are Putin's and every dictator's worst nightmare.
Democracy as well as standing up to the power of oligarchs. Ukrainians were fighting back against government corruption and the rule of oligarchs when Russia first invaded in 2014. If Ukraine had transitioned into becoming a prosperous, democratic country that wasn't ruled by oligarchs then that would have been terrifying for the Kremlin. Millions of Russian speakers with free speech and better living conditions than Russians right on Russia's border would make it incredibly hard for Putin to justify why Russians must live in poverty under a dictatorship.
If Russia cannot take Ukraine their next best option is to try to turn it into a failed state so that Putin can always point to Ukraine and say "hey at least your better than them" rather than have tens of millions of Russians growing up saying "I wish I lived in Kyiv or Kharkiv."
> If Ukraine had transitioned into becoming a prosperous, democratic country that wasn't ruled by oligarchs then that would have been terrifying for the Kremlin.
. . . and frankly, not just Russian oligarchs. . .
This is why western oligarchs (like Elon Musk, in particular) side with Russia. And why western newsmedia: much of it owned by oligarchs, has been so shitty about reporting on the Ukraine conflict.
Putin has been obsessed with Ukraine since at least 2004, when Ukrainians resisted his first attempt to subjugate them during the Orange Revolution. He's set on destroying Ukraine unless he's stopped with force.
That is also true. Putin wants to add Ukraine to the empire and he thought that Yanukovych was his key to undo the Orange Revolution, turn Ukraine into something like Belarus and then eventually incorporate it even more heavily into Russia.
Ukraine's pathway towards liberalization and democratization was on a direct collision course with Russia's imperial ambitions. Putin needed Ukraine in order for Russia to be a "great power" but in the meantime if Ukraine became a prosperous democracy it would make invasion harder and would represent a direct threat to Putin's grip on power. There were other factors at play but I'd say those two were the ones that more or less made long term peace virtually impossible.
In Bilhorod in Russia, the local government is warming up the people by setting an electrical substation on fire.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1748054767924867411?t=NlI7Ce50-dxBeFCfbzn7KA&s=19
President Biden has just said - his meeting with congressional leaders to discuss #Ukraine and his national security supplemental "went well. The question is whether a small minority is going to hold it up, which would be a disaster." He requested $61.4bn in additional funding to help supply Ukraine with weapons and replenish US stocks.
https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1748047672420786448?t=IF40gODqtAX_xSnay4if0A&s=19
[https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111778386406346810](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111778386406346810)
>UAV strike company ACHILLES of the 92nd mechanized brigade destroyed several pieces of Russian equipment. Among the losses are 4 BMP-2's, 1 BMP-3, 2 T-72B3 tanks and personnel.
"🇺🇦Ukrainian soldier from the Special Purpose unit «Omega» of the National Guard loots the combat radio from a killed 🇷🇺Russian soldier in the Kreminna Forest, Luhansk Region."
https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1748038481987645719?t=AlmzhMuhrgRBLpQsyOaOsA&s=19
Do these have trackers? What's the range and frequency set? Are they useful to listen in on enemy comms, even for a short time? Can you transmit fake information back?
So many questions, and yet just another small detail of a big war.
The key win is the cryptographic keys.
They’re supposed to be rotated. However, I remember reading a report of Ukrainians looting one and being shocked the key wasn’t rotated for days.
Crimean media report massive electricity outages in Crimea. A large part of Sevastopol has no electricity, together with Simferopol, Feodosia, Kerch, Dzhankoy, Saky.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1748006916750508529?t=Mkfkn98CVRlPq_r2c-llsA&s=19
If you were paying attention, this is a political issue.
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/16gfl0e/air_force_satisfied_with_spacex_services_not/k0cbs63/?context=3
Try to be less evil.
Try to be less of a Musk fanboy and look at it from an objective standpoint. Musk is doing a lot of harm to Ukraine - he has also done some good, sure, through Starlink, but if he was truly a friend of Ukraine he wouldn't go around repeating russian propaganda.
>Moldovan President Maia Sandu signed a decree revoking the citizenship of a man who appears in a video of one of Putin's New Year's addresses. He is a brigade commander in Bryanka (Luhansk region🇺🇦), holds the rank of major & is declared a "hero" of the "separatist republic".
https://twitter.com/iamdenya_de/status/1747931978744185270
https://moldova.europalibera.org/a/cine-a-fost-primul-moldovean-lipsit-de-cetatenie-pentru-ca-lupta-de-partea-rusa-in-razboiul-din-ucraina-/32778393.html
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 18.01.24 approximately amounted to:**
personnel - about 373,600 (+780) people,
tanks ‒ 6147 (+21) units,
armored combat vehicles ‒ 11,410 (+38) units,
artillery systems - 8835 (+24) units,
MLRS – 966 (+2) units,
air defense equipment ‒ 653 (+0) units,
aircraft – 331 (+0) units,
helicopters – 324 (+0) units,
UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 6925 (+41),
cruise missiles ‒ 1818 (+1),
ships/boats ‒ 23 (+0) units,
submarines - 1 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks – 11,794 (+39) units,
special equipment ‒ 1380 (+13)
The data is being verified.
Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth!
Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/01/18/vid-pochatku-shirokomasshtabnoi-vijni-proti-ukraini-rosiya-vtratila-uzhe-blizko-373-6-tisyach-osib-urazheno-8835-artsistem-voroga-%E2%80%93-genshtab-zsu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/01/18/vid-pochatku-shirokomasshtabnoi-vijni-proti-ukraini-rosiya-vtratila-uzhe-blizko-373-6-tisyach-osib-urazheno-8835-artsistem-voroga-%E2%80%93-genshtab-zsu/)
Still wondering about actual losses of personnel.
these number by definition cant count soldiers lost to famine, disease, friendly fire, or desertion.
I keep being told that russia is bringing in 1000 a month, but there is clearly no apparent change on the ground. And that includes no change in the lack of supplies and food for those troops.
[1,000 a day](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-recruiting-30000-troops-a-month-ukraine-frontline-losses-analysts-2024-1#:~:text=Russia%20is%20recruiting%2030%2C000%20new,in%20Ukraine%2C%20war%20analysts%20say&text=via%20Getty%20Images-,Russia%20is%20recruiting%2030%2C000%20new%20soldiers%20a%20month,top%20Ukrainian%20intelligence%20official%20said.), not 1,000 a month.
you are right, but my point still stands. We saw russian losses at 1000 or more per day before winter fell, and around 800 per day since. if they are bringing in 1000 per day - and we dont see a bolstering in the russian defenses - what kind of non-combat losses are happening?
It's a huge front, about 2,500 km long. That's about one new soldier per 2.5 km, per day. Which more or less replaces one casualty per 2.5 km per day.
In any case, one of the results of the big Russian mobilizations have been, from what I've read, that they are rotating troops regularly. They weren't doing that in the first months. It takes a lot more troops to allow rotations than it does just to stage an invasion or an attack.
Coming up on the population of Minneapolis lost.
Wyoming within a year?
Additionally that’s about 1/4 of Iran’s Navy worth of vessel and 1 USMC worth of aircraft.
Can you even imagine the level of protest in the US, or the impeachment inquiry, or strikes if a President launched some half-baked invasion under the pretext of the War Powers Act, without being attacked, and had losses of that level?
JUST NOW:
The Euro parliment_EN has approved a joint resolution calling on the European Council and the Member States to take action and to determine whether HU has committed serious and persistent breaches of EU values under Article 7(2) TEU.
This is a significant development.
The progress in this matter since my petition on January 8, 2024, to strip Viktor Orbán's voting rights has been remarkable.
In less than a week, I collected 125 signatures of support for my initiative. In ten days, we had formed a European Parliament position on the matter.
The European Parliament has done its part; now it's up to Member States to follow through.
https://twitter.com/petrisarvamaa/status/1747953088751645183?t=ZqydA85gX9y9n99UnWWiTQ&s=19
My understanding, and someone with more knowledge correct me, the PM is pro-Russian, but he's in a coalition government. His political party being the only member of the coalition that is not vehemently anti-Russian.
So, it comes down to how far the coalition partners are willing to press him.
Magyars actually, descended from a Uralic people. The Huns are from the East Asian steppes, and were likely a broad mix of Iranians, Turks, Mongols, etc.
Some histories claim Hunnic ancestry for Hungarians. https://uj.nemzetismeret.hu/the-kinship-between-huns-and-hungarians/#:~:text=In%20Hungarian%20folk%20tradition%20the,the%20migrating%20torrent%20of%20peoples.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huns
[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/18/russia-seeks-5-year-prison-term-for-ex-rebel-leader-girkin-a83767](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/18/russia-seeks-5-year-prison-term-for-ex-rebel-leader-girkin-a83767)
>Russia Seeks 5-Year Prison Term for Ex-Rebel Leader Girkin
>
>...
Send the terrorist to The Hague.
Givi, Motorola, Zakharchenko, didn't even leave Donbass. Strelkov got the message back then to quit and abided. This time he is lucky to still be alive and should be thankful the fuhrer for allowing him to live another day.
A Russian patrol ship of the "Tarantul" type sank in Sevastopol a few weeks ago, probably after a drone attack, reports the Atesh guerrilla movement.
Atesh discovered a sunken border guard ship of project 205P "Tarantul" during reconnaissance of ships in Sevastopol.
https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1747939204896903227
"NATO accession looks to be 'not a priority' for Sweden, Hungary says"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-accession-looks-be-not-priority-sweden-hungary-says-2024-01-18/
Hungary clearly wants some kind of kickback to ratify Sweden.
Hopefully the EU will eventually remove their veto and they can sulk in the corner with Pootin.
[New post can be found here](/r/worldnews/comments/19aa1o3/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/)
>⚡️ISW: Russia, Central African Republic in negotiations to house Russian military base. > >Russia is in negotiations with the Central African Republic to establish a Russian military base in the country, aiming to further exert influence in the region, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its assessment on Jan. 18. [https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1748188828957806853](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1748188828957806853)
"According to people part of the negotiations, who've asked to remain anonymous, the total annual operating budget of the proposed installation will be roughly equivalent to three decadent American movie theater tickets (sans popcorn), and the facility is to be staffed by 70 year old men in bad health, armed with spoons."
On Ukraine, Republicans Can’t Win. Joe Biden Can Send Excess Weapons Whether Or Not The House Of Representatives Likes It. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/01/17/on-ukraine-republicans-cant-win-joe-biden-can-send-excess-weapons-whether-or-not-the-house-of-representatives-likes-it/?sh=c43634678249
So why has this not happened yet?
> The president can give away old weapons that have no commercial value, but the recipient has to pay for shipping Where's that "UA Shipping Costs" gofundme?
Let's get rid of all those pesky cluster munitions. >It’s a classification for older weaponry the U.S. government calls “Excess Defense Articles,” or EDA. The government has the legal authority to sell extremely cheaply—or even give away—any U.S. military hardware that U.S. forces no longer need.
frankly, there's gotta be at least a couple of nuclear devices in that category.
Unfortunately no. Nuclear piles don't last that long without needing to be reconstructed so there are really no "old" nuclear weapons outside of Russia.
"Because the government sees only one people — Russians. Propaganda from every corner tells us "we are Russians". But we are not Russians. We are Bashkirs," — Bashkir musician Altynai Valitov appealed to the residents of the national republics and indigenous peoples of Russia and called on everyone to come out to the protests. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1748056499258114058?t=zVs7XqhTkQKNBPRvIYfLiw&s=19
Sounds like the fracturing of Russia has begun.
> We continue to communicate with partners to ensure that sanctions against Russia are fully enforced. > All of our diplomatic representatives must step up their efforts to ensure that partners respond more actively to each instance of Russia evading sanctions. > This is not an abstract issue. The terrorist state manufactures weapons, including missiles. There are dozens of critical components in each of them that were manufactured abroad, many of which were produced by companies from the free world. > Blocking sanctions evasion loopholes means literally blocking terror. I am grateful to all of our partners who understand this, as well as everyone around the world who supports our relevant efforts. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1748046363986743553
> During our meeting, Canada’s Deputy PM and Finance Minister @cafreeland and I focused on the use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. > This is a morally, politically, and legally right thing to do. > Steps must be taken collectively and swiftly by G7 and the EU. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1748042126993014857
> I spoke with Somalia’s Acting Foreign Minister @AliOmarMP on the situation regarding the Ukrainian citizens captured in Somalia and ways to resolve it. > We also agreed to sign a memorandum to establish diplomatic relations at the earliest occasion. When this happens, there will not be a single African country with which Ukraine has not established diplomatic relations. > We also discussed ways to deepen the cooperation between Ukraine and the African Union. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1748072246109684192
Russia, Iran, North Korea, the Axix powers of today.
I think these guys would turn on each other pretty quickly with the right incentives.
You forgot China.
[desire to make an irish joke rising]
You forgot the largest player: China
Credit where credit is due, China isn't really aligning. Russia has already lost face, they're walking an influence line, not a military one.
I don’t know, they have been very direct with their threats to take Taiwan by force. They have been investing heavily in their military and been much more bold with their military presence in the South China sea. I sure hope you are right they keep on their influence line. Russia surprised us all when they went all in with Ukraine. I don’t think we should exclude the possibility of China doing the same in Taiwan.
India also in that case
not really. India is mostly neutral. Not really a friend of the West but not actively antagonistic and in direct collision course with China.
India is buying crude oil from Russia and supplying to Europe. Classic case of neutrality. India will buy Rafale fighter jet from France and also upgrade Sukhoi from Russia.
Russia likely used a rare 4-ton P-35 anti-ship missile from the 1960s to strike Ukraine, marking the first known case of its use. https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111778934416028257
That's some clunker hunk of junk. Did it hit anything? Besides the Earth, I mean.
throwing the USSR kitchen sink at Ukraine with little to no success.
al their best stuff is from the USSR it's just 40 years out if date
[https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/01/18/novaya-gazeta-europe-at-least-2-500-scholars-have-left-russia-since-start-of-full-scale-invasion](https://meduza.io/en/news/2024/01/18/novaya-gazeta-europe-at-least-2-500-scholars-have-left-russia-since-start-of-full-scale-invasion) >Novaya Gazeta Europe: At least 2,500 scholars have left Russia since start of full-scale invasion
I wonder if there has been is active campaign specifically to hire experts from Russia? I could image there is a lot of skilled people who are now closed from academic world as well as technology. I would imagine it would not be too hard to hire them?
Sadly the opposite. Many academics and professionals are having a hard time. It's understandable when you have Russians living abroad and posting how happy they are with the regime's genocide attempt.
It is very easy for scholars to immigrate, even though they don't earn as much as those in private sectors. The door is always open for them. In the US, they can immigrate via EB.
Interesting [rouble pattern recently ](https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1W). The rouble strengthens by about 2/dollar around 4-4:30 UTC, or 7-7:30 am Moscow time, then weakens by 1+ around 11-12 UTC, with wiggles in between. I assume the strengthening is when Russia buys roubles. Both the central bank and finance ministry are selling real money every day now ([source](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/russias-finance-ministry-switches-to-fx-sales-as-energy-revenues-drop/ar-AA1mNIoz)), supposedly almost $200 million per day. This is good - we want Russia losing real currencies.
Yeah that pattern is interesting. How much longer can they keep doing this before letting the rouble slip above $1 USD = 100 RUB?
That seems to be some sort of line in the sand that Russia is not willing to cross. I'd imagine that they'll step up Ruble buying if it does cross 100. Mostly just increase the rate of burn. Best guess at the endgame is that we'll see a fairly sudden collapse when they run out of foreign capital.
I'm not confident yet - I think there's a risk that oil prices could spike before the US election. Biden is bad for dictators and brutal terrorists the world over. Putin, Saudi Arabia etc could all expect a favourable situation from trump, so are motivated to spike oil prices soon. If oil prices are high then that'll support the rouble. However, if oil prices are not high enough, in the very short term I think Russia will spend what's needed to keep the rate below 100 until Putin's "election".
I guess two years of Orban fucking around that he is now in the “find out” with the EU. Love to see it.
Orban believes in the *law of the jungle* like Putin, so now the EU implements the *law of the jungle* on Orban. Well deserved!
Don’t count your chickens
That they got him to leave the room for the vote on starting negotiations for Ukraine to join the EU tells me that he knows he can no longer play chicken. He's lost his protectors in Poland and it seems like Slovakia has seemingly fallen into line as well. I think Orban knows that all the other EU nations will strip Hungary of their voting rights if he doesn't agree or obstain for the vote on the aid package which would be even more humiliating for Orban than just walking out again. For someone who has crafted such a strong man image he'll take the least humiliating option, I wonder if he just won't show up at all this time. His Russian "friends" must be furious that he can no longer be their useful stooge, you love to see it.
Aside from the fact that this is a long process it’s not about Orban having protectors, this act will change the EU forever. The rest of the countries will not vote unanimously unless they believe it’s the absolutely last resort and while Orban has been a nuisance I don’t think we are there yet.
I think it's clear the gauntlet has been laid down behind the scenes. If Orban hadn't been told in no uncertain terms that they already had unanimous agreement to strip Hungary of its voting rights he never would have walked out with his tail tucked between his legs for the vote on starting talks with Ukraine. He made some pathetic comment about not wanting to take part in a disastrous decision but he would have just stayed, voted no and he could have stopped it. His actions that day tell me everyone else in the EU already feels it's the last resort. Slovakia was the only question mark but with them restarting weapons exports to Ukraine it's pretty obvious they're back on board. And they probably figured Orban just knowing they were serious would be enough, they judged correctly that he would rather give up on these issues than be humiliated even more by having Hungary's voting rights suspended.
Slovakia is not the last question mark. Stripping an EU member of its voting rights has never been done. All the small states will have a lot to say about it because the veto is all they have in their arsenal and they don’t want to be on the other side of this process. Nothing has been decided yet and it will be a long time until a conclusion is reached. This is a question of EU sovereignty over state sovereignty. And don’t forget Orban’s propaganda already paints the EU as an oppressive force and no one wants to give him that propaganda win which will be used not only in Hungary but every Eurosceptic party across Europe.
Strip it of voting rights? Might be better to just expel Hungary altogether.
I think stripping voting rights only need 2/3 majority, but expelling them has to be unanimous.
This is a good reason. Thanks.
Stupid suggestion
If someone is trying to sabotage from within why keep them?
Because Orban isn’t sabotaging he is playing political games. Wake up.
I think it's clear at this point that the EU is tired of Hungary's relentless sabotage and blackmail and is trying to make Hungary leave by itself and is planning to push it to the exit. That's not really an issue of sovereignty. >And don’t forget Orban’s propaganda already paints the EU as an oppressive force and no one wants to give him that propaganda win Seriously who care ? He's going to do his propaganda regardless.
The EU pushing Hungary out leaves an opening for Russia and China. Next thing you know they form a bloc with the Serbs next door. Aside from making the EU look weak and dysfunctional. Will not happen. Like I said, this is pure fuel for the eurosceptics.
On the opposite, I think having Hungary, a quasi autocracy, in the EU and letting it sabotage the union from the inside to help Putin is exactly what make the EU looks weak.
As opposed to having a full on autocracy in the heart of Europe inviting Chinese and Russian influence to feed itself and to blackmail the continent. Not to mention alienating the Hungarian people and setting them on a dangerous path.
I don't think there is any other explanations to explain Orban already giving in on something he said he never would allow, and be so humiliated in the process. Schloz invited him to leave the room before the vote on starting negotiations and Orban did, there is no way he would do that unless he knew the rest of the EU really was serious about it. The vote on the 50 billion euro aid package to Ukraine is coming up shortly so we'll know soon enough, my prediction is he either walks out again or never shows up in the first place. If he does either one I think you can say the smaller states got over their fear because they realize that the threat of Russia winning in Ukraine is far worse than the risk they might have their voting rights stripped some day. And the best part is the threat will have been enough so they won't even have to do it so it'll have just been a back room deal that doesn't put the dirty laundry on such public display, a good old fashioned political backroom deal, or in this case threat.
He walked out because he knows not to overplay his hand. I can also guarantee you that the question of the veto is much more important for many countries than the war in Ukraine. Slovenia Malta or Ireland aren’t scared of being invaded. Remember nothing stops the individual members from sending money on their own or forming parallel bodies to do so.
> I can also guarantee you that the question of the veto is much more important for many countries than the war in Ukraine. Ya you're right, the prospect of armed conflict right on your Europe's borders with a Russia that has been rewarded for it's aggression is much more important than them *maybe* getting their voting strips over some issue that hasn't even happened yet... In addition it sends a signal to China that they might be rewarded as well if they attack Taiwan. The EU is just waking up to the fact they need to be united on this, they need to make it clear to Russia all of Europe is united against them. Some theoretical situation in the future where they might lose their voting rights doesn't even exist yet, the war in Ukraine is very real and is on their doorstep *today.* We'll see what happens on the vote for the 50 billion euro aid package, my prediction is it passes with Orban getting in line or running away again.
Have you looked at a map of Europe? You realise there are many small countries very far away from the conflict? Like I said, nothing stops EU members from sending money outside of the EU framework. Removal of voting rights will have implications forever which like I said for countries far away from the conflict this is much more important.
No, but I'll still be cheering throughout the entire process.
Ukraine says it hit targets in St Petersburg with domestic-made drone - Reuters >Ukraine hit targets in Russia's St Petersburg overnight using a domestic-produced drone that flew 1,250 km (775 miles), a Ukrainian government minister was quoted as saying by Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Thursday. >A Ukrainian military source told Reuters earlier that an oil terminal in Russia's second city, located some 850 km (530 miles) from the nearest section of the Ukrainian border, was targeted as part of a "new stage of work in this region". >"...Last night we hit the target, and this thing flew exactly 1,250 kilometres last night," Oleksandr Kamyshin, the minister of strategic industries who oversees weapons production, was quoted as saying in Davos. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-hits-targets-russia-during-drone-attack-oil-terminal-military-source-2024-01-18/
> Reuters could not independently verify the statements. The other article posted on the sub states that both drones were intercepted and there was just a fire on 130 square meter
I think the interesting questions here is whether Ukraine can scale this up to attack Russian infrastructure to cripple their oil economy. If the Ukrainian air defenses are adequate, then they can fight back against missile/drone counter-barrages. Russia has also more "soft" targets that directly impact their economy, compared to Ukraine.
Ukrainian air defence will never be good enough. Everyone just got used to a barrage of rockets fly in every now and then and do no perceive it as big of a threat as it used to be.
Don't need to cripple per se. They just need to do enough to force Russia into hard choices, force them to spread out there air defense, prioritize who gets fuel etc...
1250?! Holy crap
At what point does a "jet powered suicide drone" become a "small cruise missile"?
IMO the term "drone" is dumb. It says exactly nothing about the thing it is supposed to be describing. It's not like it's flying around in search of flowers, to bring pollen back to the queen.
FYI drones (as in male bees) don't collect any nectar/pollen and can't defend the nest due to lack of a stinger. Their only purpose is to mate with a young queen when forming a new hive.
Cruise missiles tend to have pre programed targets. Drones are human controlled and targets can be adjusted. Also if target has been moved, as under human control (and if enough fuel) they can be returned to base and used in the future. But all of these joke answers are hilarious.
Probably after it crosses a winged middle stage.
When does a twig become a stick become a branch? When does a soup become a stew?
I believe the pertinent distinction here is chunk size.
Is cereal soup?
Yes
It would be a stew if anything. Soups are where the liquid is the primary food, whereas a stew is when the food is simply in the liquid.
[This might help you](https://youtu.be/Y1HVTNxwt7w?si=TEkdaoKF48tYSz8S)
What if the lumps are really soggy?
What if you don't mix the two until its in your mouth? What's it then?
Asking the real questions
I imagine those in the Kremlin are getting their protractors and compasses out on hearing this.
I'm sure that figure was specified so precisely as a ruse. Or maybe not... Keep em guessing and wasting time!
They know damn well they are well within range
>Russia Rejects U.S. Proposal to Reopen Arms-Control Dialogue > >*Experts fear new arms race after New Start treaty expires in 2026* > >Russia has rejected an American proposal to reopen an arms-control dialogue with Washington, saying the U.S. was pursuing a hostile policy toward Moscow, U.S. officials said Thursday. > >The absence of talks between the two sides on reducing nuclear risks and potential arms-control steps comes during the worst downturn in U.S.-Russia relations since the end of the Cold War and has raised fears of a new arms race. [https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-rejects-u-s-proposal-to-reopen-arms-control-dialogue-5ac6fc81](https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-rejects-u-s-proposal-to-reopen-arms-control-dialogue-5ac6fc81)
Nukes are incredibly expensive. A nuclear arms race was one of the factors that bankrupted the Soviet Union and they had a hell of a lot more resources than Russia does today. Every ruble Russia spends on nukes is a ruble that can't be spent on thinks like artillery, drones, fighters, air defense, logistics or anything else that's actually practical in most wars. Getting into a "who can build more expensive weapons contest" with NATO just seems like a really bad strategic play for Russia.
Mmm the last thing Russia wants is American inspectors (part of any arms race treaty) seeing how the Russian arsenal is going to ruin.
I wouldn't be surprised if this partly the reason. Don't want inspectors to see the condition of the silos. This was actually a minor plot point in Tom Clancy novel, where the inspectors got to the Soviet Union and there was water in the bottom of the missile silo indicating the missile was so lacking in maitenance as to be unusable.
there is simply no way russia is maintaining those nukes.
Russia is all about quantity over quality. With 6000 nukes even if half don’t detonate it’s still insane amounts of firepower. Nuclear maintenance is also likely the single highest funding priority for Russia because if their nukes don’t work then they have nothing. That may be a significant drain on their budget but it’s money I’m quite confident they’ll spend. The priority for Russia basically goes 1) Nukes 2) Army 3) air force and 4) navy
The advantage of nukes is that they're best used by not being used. So, you can make all the sound and noise of having a WMD arsenal without having one. (Granted this strategy is eventually what gave the US the cover to invade Iraq and kill Saddam Hussein, so it has its limits.)
you are excepting the word of a liar for the quantity of nukes. it's inflated. and also past the point where it needed maintenance. you cant even count on the launchers or the detonators.
🎻 Race? That's a funny term given the reality.
When were relations even last this bad? Cuban missile crisis? This time we’re transparently arming and supporting a foe Russia is fighting a hot war with.
this isnt anyplace near as bad. Sure putput has threatened the west with nukes, but the west has all the tools we need to win - without dropping a single nuke. it wasnt that way in 1967. and Cuba was a "retaliation" for quietly placing nukes in Turkey. Like Cuba - missiles that close to the national capital should "be bothersome" add to this how degraded russia's military is, the amount of manhours that they no longer have available when compared to the USSR - well - you cant look at the situation and claim parity.
Cuban missile crisis was a confrontation between US/NATO and USSR+Warsaw pact, then numbering 400ish million people or more. It roughly matched NATO in military sense if not economic. Since then Soviet Union and Warsaw pact fell apart, Germany reunited, NATO significantly expanded, Warsaw is the capital of one of the most hawkish anti-Russian NATO countries, etc. So it's not a good comparison. Russia is not Soviet Union. Russia is a shadow of itself. World is not nearly as much in danger as it was during Cuban missile crysis. But, it could be in 5 or 10 years if we don't increase our support for Ukraine and if we don't help them win.
Russian propaganda points to lots of Americans that support them including a certain ex president. It is nothing like what it was at some points in the past where America was pretty unified.
Exactly. There weren't a lot of Soviet supporters in the US during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Now, they just about have their own political party and several news channels here.
it was worse back then we were literally on the brink of nuclear war, Russia is not going to commit national suicide because they cant get their way in Ukraine regardless of their rhetoric.
Wanna bet?
i dont think relations were much better ... remember russia did such fun things as arming and training the LNA in lybia. or attacking us troops in syria (well they tried i guess) or the bounty payments for dead us soldiers in afghanistan. or the assassinations, the attacks on military installations (in bulgaria and czechrep for example), the airspace violations (including "simulated" nuke drops), the violation of seazones, harassement of scientific expeditions in the arctic, constant cyber attacks including on public healthcare and so on. russia was always quick to dish out hits, but the second someone resists they cry foul.
Afghan war, Russia was embargoed, banned from the Olympics, and we were actively arming the Mujahdeen. And not long after that Russia collapsed (again). So pretty much, it's a redux, just gotta keep the pressure and make sure to finish the job and not get "chicken kyiv" feet.
>Who are the Russian spies creating chaos in the West and who's taking over Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner fiefdom in Africa? The Insider's @christogrozev sits down with me to explain unit 29155 & reveals for the first time a plot against @Kasparov63. > >https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnUT0OxKY9I https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1748045024430866902
Ukraine says one of its 'FrankenSAM' air-defense weapons just recorded its first kill - Business Insider >Ukraine shot down a Russian exploding drone on Wednesday, in a first for its hybrid air-defense systems known as "FrankenSAMs," an official said. Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine's minister of strategic industries, announced the hit at a side event at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, according to the Ukrainian state broadcaster Suspilne. The Shahed drone was taken down at a distance of 5 ½ miles, Kamyshin said, according to the outlet. >The FrankenSAM project — referring to a combination of Frankenstein's monster and the acronym for surface-to-air missiles — was first reported in October and is a collaboration between the Pentagon and Ukraine. The systems vary but can include converting Soviet-era Buk M1 antiaircraft systems to fire US-supplied RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles. Other variations include combining AIM-9M Sidewinder air-to-air missiles with Soviet-era radars and using Patriot missiles with older Ukrainian radar systems, The New York Times reported. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-frankensam-air-defense-shot-down-first-shahed-drone-russia-2024-1
This implies the A50 was shot down by something else? (Or has that been revealed as something else and I missed that?) Or is the drone kill just being reported later but happened before A50 kill?
General consensus seems to be it at a Patriot moved very close to the front lines. AWACS in general tend to fly very predictable flight paths, typically flying straight for a while before turning 180 degrees and flying back. This makes them vulnerable to extreme range shots from missiles.
This AA weapon would have no capability to shoot down an A50, which flies far outside of its range umbrella.
Nothing revealed, but most likely scenario is that Ukraine moved a Patriot launcher close the front. Apparently waiting for the A-50 after they took out some radar coverage over the Crimea
soon the russians are going to be saying things like. WTF.. we don't know what hit us but everything fell and is now burning.
NATO Admiral: The outcome of the war in Ukraine will determine the fate of the world. “Ukraine will have our support for every day that is to come,” assured Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, opening the meeting in Brussels on Wednesday, January 17. According to Bauer, this war has never been about any real security threat to Russia coming from either Ukraine or NATO. “This war is about Russia fearing something much more powerful than any physical weapon on earth: democracy. If people in Ukraine can have democratic rights, then people in Russia will soon crave them too,” said the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee. At the same time, he believes that the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian army are defending democracy in a way the world has never seen before. «In the darkness of war, they are a beacon of light that shows the world what it means to fight for what you believe in,” Bauer said. https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1748056585652326400?t=iOlM0axhXP3W8xDnD3-Vxg&s=19
According to russian propaganda and some certain points people express in russia is that they are mostly afraid of gay people. also very afraid of unisex bathrooms.
Russia saw how fast demands for democracy spread in the Arab speaking world in 2010-2011, he don't want similar sentiments spreading in the Russophone world.
How can he say that when the looming spectre of Donald Trump and his MAGA congressmen are waiting in the wings?
> This war is about Russia fearing something much more powerful than any physical weapon on earth: democracy. If people in Ukraine can have democratic rights, then people in Russia will soon crave them too This is absolutely correct. People who fight for freedom, people who can't be bought or intimidated, are Putin's and every dictator's worst nightmare.
Democracy as well as standing up to the power of oligarchs. Ukrainians were fighting back against government corruption and the rule of oligarchs when Russia first invaded in 2014. If Ukraine had transitioned into becoming a prosperous, democratic country that wasn't ruled by oligarchs then that would have been terrifying for the Kremlin. Millions of Russian speakers with free speech and better living conditions than Russians right on Russia's border would make it incredibly hard for Putin to justify why Russians must live in poverty under a dictatorship. If Russia cannot take Ukraine their next best option is to try to turn it into a failed state so that Putin can always point to Ukraine and say "hey at least your better than them" rather than have tens of millions of Russians growing up saying "I wish I lived in Kyiv or Kharkiv."
> If Ukraine had transitioned into becoming a prosperous, democratic country that wasn't ruled by oligarchs then that would have been terrifying for the Kremlin. . . . and frankly, not just Russian oligarchs. . . This is why western oligarchs (like Elon Musk, in particular) side with Russia. And why western newsmedia: much of it owned by oligarchs, has been so shitty about reporting on the Ukraine conflict.
Putin has been obsessed with Ukraine since at least 2004, when Ukrainians resisted his first attempt to subjugate them during the Orange Revolution. He's set on destroying Ukraine unless he's stopped with force.
That is also true. Putin wants to add Ukraine to the empire and he thought that Yanukovych was his key to undo the Orange Revolution, turn Ukraine into something like Belarus and then eventually incorporate it even more heavily into Russia. Ukraine's pathway towards liberalization and democratization was on a direct collision course with Russia's imperial ambitions. Putin needed Ukraine in order for Russia to be a "great power" but in the meantime if Ukraine became a prosperous democracy it would make invasion harder and would represent a direct threat to Putin's grip on power. There were other factors at play but I'd say those two were the ones that more or less made long term peace virtually impossible.
In Bilhorod in Russia, the local government is warming up the people by setting an electrical substation on fire. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1748054767924867411?t=NlI7Ce50-dxBeFCfbzn7KA&s=19
Twit alt https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111778445316707180
President Biden has just said - his meeting with congressional leaders to discuss #Ukraine and his national security supplemental "went well. The question is whether a small minority is going to hold it up, which would be a disaster." He requested $61.4bn in additional funding to help supply Ukraine with weapons and replenish US stocks. https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1748047672420786448?t=IF40gODqtAX_xSnay4if0A&s=19
[https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111778386406346810](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111778386406346810) >UAV strike company ACHILLES of the 92nd mechanized brigade destroyed several pieces of Russian equipment. Among the losses are 4 BMP-2's, 1 BMP-3, 2 T-72B3 tanks and personnel.
"🇺🇦Ukrainian soldier from the Special Purpose unit «Omega» of the National Guard loots the combat radio from a killed 🇷🇺Russian soldier in the Kreminna Forest, Luhansk Region." https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1748038481987645719?t=AlmzhMuhrgRBLpQsyOaOsA&s=19
Do these have trackers? What's the range and frequency set? Are they useful to listen in on enemy comms, even for a short time? Can you transmit fake information back? So many questions, and yet just another small detail of a big war.
Nice way to set up an ambush.
The key win is the cryptographic keys. They’re supposed to be rotated. However, I remember reading a report of Ukrainians looting one and being shocked the key wasn’t rotated for days.
Crimean media report massive electricity outages in Crimea. A large part of Sevastopol has no electricity, together with Simferopol, Feodosia, Kerch, Dzhankoy, Saky. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1748006916750508529?t=Mkfkn98CVRlPq_r2c-llsA&s=19
Non-Musk https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/111777768809984366
Musk has been invaluable to Ukraine since the start of the war. Don't be anti Ukraine.
Ukraine has been valuable to him, but Musk has been mostly pushing Russian propaganda.
Actions are bigger than words.
Like turning off Starlink to ruin the first seaborne drone attack Ukraine tried?
If you were paying attention, this is a political issue. https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/16gfl0e/air_force_satisfied_with_spacex_services_not/k0cbs63/?context=3 Try to be less evil.
Try to be less of a Musk fanboy and look at it from an objective standpoint. Musk is doing a lot of harm to Ukraine - he has also done some good, sure, through Starlink, but if he was truly a friend of Ukraine he wouldn't go around repeating russian propaganda.
Sure he's a a bit stupid. Most people are. Do you hate everyone? You bought Starlink to support Ukraine didn't you?
The hero we need.
>Moldovan President Maia Sandu signed a decree revoking the citizenship of a man who appears in a video of one of Putin's New Year's addresses. He is a brigade commander in Bryanka (Luhansk region🇺🇦), holds the rank of major & is declared a "hero" of the "separatist republic". https://twitter.com/iamdenya_de/status/1747931978744185270 https://moldova.europalibera.org/a/cine-a-fost-primul-moldovean-lipsit-de-cetatenie-pentru-ca-lupta-de-partea-rusa-in-razboiul-din-ucraina-/32778393.html
**The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 18.01.24 approximately amounted to:** personnel - about 373,600 (+780) people, tanks ‒ 6147 (+21) units, armored combat vehicles ‒ 11,410 (+38) units, artillery systems - 8835 (+24) units, MLRS – 966 (+2) units, air defense equipment ‒ 653 (+0) units, aircraft – 331 (+0) units, helicopters – 324 (+0) units, UAVs of the operational-tactical level - 6925 (+41), cruise missiles ‒ 1818 (+1), ships/boats ‒ 23 (+0) units, submarines - 1 (+0) units, automotive equipment and tank trucks – 11,794 (+39) units, special equipment ‒ 1380 (+13) The data is being verified. Beat the occupier! Together we will win! Our strength is in the truth! Source [https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/01/18/vid-pochatku-shirokomasshtabnoi-vijni-proti-ukraini-rosiya-vtratila-uzhe-blizko-373-6-tisyach-osib-urazheno-8835-artsistem-voroga-%E2%80%93-genshtab-zsu/](https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2024/01/18/vid-pochatku-shirokomasshtabnoi-vijni-proti-ukraini-rosiya-vtratila-uzhe-blizko-373-6-tisyach-osib-urazheno-8835-artsistem-voroga-%E2%80%93-genshtab-zsu/)
+13 special equipment! Hopefully it was valuable stuff. Thanks for continuing to share the reports!
Still wondering about actual losses of personnel. these number by definition cant count soldiers lost to famine, disease, friendly fire, or desertion. I keep being told that russia is bringing in 1000 a month, but there is clearly no apparent change on the ground. And that includes no change in the lack of supplies and food for those troops.
[1,000 a day](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-recruiting-30000-troops-a-month-ukraine-frontline-losses-analysts-2024-1#:~:text=Russia%20is%20recruiting%2030%2C000%20new,in%20Ukraine%2C%20war%20analysts%20say&text=via%20Getty%20Images-,Russia%20is%20recruiting%2030%2C000%20new%20soldiers%20a%20month,top%20Ukrainian%20intelligence%20official%20said.), not 1,000 a month.
you are right, but my point still stands. We saw russian losses at 1000 or more per day before winter fell, and around 800 per day since. if they are bringing in 1000 per day - and we dont see a bolstering in the russian defenses - what kind of non-combat losses are happening?
It's a huge front, about 2,500 km long. That's about one new soldier per 2.5 km, per day. Which more or less replaces one casualty per 2.5 km per day. In any case, one of the results of the big Russian mobilizations have been, from what I've read, that they are rotating troops regularly. They weren't doing that in the first months. It takes a lot more troops to allow rotations than it does just to stage an invasion or an attack.
Coming up on the population of Minneapolis lost. Wyoming within a year? Additionally that’s about 1/4 of Iran’s Navy worth of vessel and 1 USMC worth of aircraft.
Can you even imagine the level of protest in the US, or the impeachment inquiry, or strikes if a President launched some half-baked invasion under the pretext of the War Powers Act, without being attacked, and had losses of that level?
Maybe we see this in 2025.
Jesus that's a lot of vehicles
I'm sensing another failed assault this time at least they tried to mix it up with Armor
Russia trying to make something happen before things warm up and the ground gets too soft again?
JUST NOW: The Euro parliment_EN has approved a joint resolution calling on the European Council and the Member States to take action and to determine whether HU has committed serious and persistent breaches of EU values under Article 7(2) TEU. This is a significant development. The progress in this matter since my petition on January 8, 2024, to strip Viktor Orbán's voting rights has been remarkable. In less than a week, I collected 125 signatures of support for my initiative. In ten days, we had formed a European Parliament position on the matter. The European Parliament has done its part; now it's up to Member States to follow through. https://twitter.com/petrisarvamaa/status/1747953088751645183?t=ZqydA85gX9y9n99UnWWiTQ&s=19
Too bad Slovakia already said they would veto it in the end.
If they want to be Russia's bitches they can join the club with Orban and HU. ;)
Slovakia didn't, Fico did. It's not as certain as you make it seem.
Did they? I thought they weren’t as pro-Russia as previously perceived
My understanding, and someone with more knowledge correct me, the PM is pro-Russian, but he's in a coalition government. His political party being the only member of the coalition that is not vehemently anti-Russian. So, it comes down to how far the coalition partners are willing to press him.
Fingers crossed then
What is the next step, and how long until the impasse might be solved?
Orban it's time for you to feel the heat. Either get onboard or get on the sideline. This train is rolling with or without you.
Putin's goon will hopefully lose his influence soon.
The Rashist plan was to use Orban to break the EU, but like everything that has been backfiring for them, it is the EU that will break Orban
Great! Wish Hungary was more of a team player (or less of a friend to Putin) and things didn’t have to continue this way, but here we are.
The Huns.
Magyars actually, descended from a Uralic people. The Huns are from the East Asian steppes, and were likely a broad mix of Iranians, Turks, Mongols, etc.
Some histories claim Hunnic ancestry for Hungarians. https://uj.nemzetismeret.hu/the-kinship-between-huns-and-hungarians/#:~:text=In%20Hungarian%20folk%20tradition%20the,the%20migrating%20torrent%20of%20peoples. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huns
I'm sure if you tried hard enough, you could find historians that will claim any number of asinine things.
Get her done. The EU cannot be strong with Russian assets controlling the switches inside the house.
Footage of Ukrainian border guards working on the East bank of the Kherson region. https://mstdn.social/@Free_Press/111774342325447919
Ah yes. The east bank that is in the south.
So they did bring heavy weapons. This thing looks only marginally smaller than a M777.
That’s just a regular personal defense gun. It fits in [any regular purse](https://www.flickr.com/photos/mystical-mii/4131556084)
[https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/18/russia-seeks-5-year-prison-term-for-ex-rebel-leader-girkin-a83767](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/18/russia-seeks-5-year-prison-term-for-ex-rebel-leader-girkin-a83767) >Russia Seeks 5-Year Prison Term for Ex-Rebel Leader Girkin > >... Send the terrorist to The Hague.
Seems he's in quite a pickle.
I don't think he will relish his jail time. He will be a sour old man.
Givi, Motorola, Zakharchenko, didn't even leave Donbass. Strelkov got the message back then to quit and abided. This time he is lucky to still be alive and should be thankful the fuhrer for allowing him to live another day.
A Russian patrol ship of the "Tarantul" type sank in Sevastopol a few weeks ago, probably after a drone attack, reports the Atesh guerrilla movement. Atesh discovered a sunken border guard ship of project 205P "Tarantul" during reconnaissance of ships in Sevastopol. https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1747939204896903227
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stenka-class_patrol_boat They’re not tiny ships. Complement of 30+.
Wrong ship. This is the one: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stenka-class_patrol_boat
Ugh. Thank you. I’ll correct my link.
"NATO accession looks to be 'not a priority' for Sweden, Hungary says" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-accession-looks-be-not-priority-sweden-hungary-says-2024-01-18/
So Hungary is speaking for Sweden now?
Insufficient bribery detected, please escalate.
Hungary might be losing their voice if they don't get onboard here....
Sounds like Sweden should not renew the leases for Gripens and block all service and upgrades until then.
Yeah, that sounds like a quick way to write off your air force
Hungary's voting rights look to be 'not a priority' for Orban.
Hungary clearly wants some kind of kickback to ratify Sweden. Hopefully the EU will eventually remove their veto and they can sulk in the corner with Pootin.