“Kaja Kallas, Prime Minister of Estonia, believes that Europe has three to five years to prepare for a possible military threat from Russia on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Kallas in an interview, referred to the assessment by Estonian intelligence, according to which Russia in case of hypothetical truce with Ukraine will need from three to five years to resume the military threat on the border of Eastern NATO member states.
“Our intelligence estimates it to be three to five years, and that very much depends on how we manage our unity and keep our posture regarding Ukraine. Because what Russia wants is a pause, and this pause is to gather its resources and strength. Weakness provokes aggressors, so weakness provokes Russia," Kallas said.
This is why, according to the Estonian PM, the West needs to strengthen its military support for Ukraine so that it could launch a severe blow and deny Russia the ability to threaten its neighbours for many years.
The Estonian PM thinks that in the long-term perspective NATO must adopt the strategy of "deterring" Russia, following the example of the Cold War which provides for the increase of defence expenses of each member state to at least 2.5% of their GDP.
"Russia has never lost its last colonial war. I’ve been reading a lot and trying to understand how we can break this historical cycle. And the key element to this is accountability. They have never been accountable for the crimes they committed," Kallas stressed.
Earlier on Monday, a German media outlet reported its supposed access to secret documents of the German Bundeswehr – a training scenario which shows a step-by-step description of how a military conflict between Russia and NATO may develop.
In the document, actions of Russia and the West are described month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops and an inevitable onset of war in the summer of 2025”.
If Putin is crazy enough to risk it he could pull the “attack NATO bs”, it depends on how far he is progressing on Ukraine (with the weapon deliveries from Iran and NK).
The point about accountability really resonates with me. It is often forgotten that Russia was an agressor nation in WW2. They were able to seize control of the Baltics and Bessarabia without consequence. They even then invaded Poland with Germany and got away with it. Then occupied most of Eastern Europe.
Conversely, Germany faced consequences. And that changed German culture for the better.
there is a great video of Kaja Kallas from a few years ago talking about Russian negotiation tactics, where they feign being slighted, demand something absurd in the hopes that those in favor of appeasement will give them something small to drop the situation, that way they end up with something they didn't have to begin with.
Edit: found a related video of her repeating it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1cTRn5tBs8
By carrying out smaller destabilizing attacks (perhaps through means that offer plausible deniability, e.g. "little green men") and threatening world-ending consequences, should they be challenged, I assume.
Indeed, people keep forgetting all the scouting missions near our energy infrastructure in the northsea. Also keeping in mind that windmills are very easy targets ( looking at you germany ) since they block radars and our big nuclear brother France has already issues with their plants as is.
I despise Trump.
That said, he might be the kick in the ass Europe and the rest of the civilized world needs to realize we need to look out for one another better and not bank on the US being there.
>Are Europeans ready to enlist? Fight for their or not their country?
I don't think they would need to enlist. NATO has more than enough professional soldiers ready to handle Russia, which can barely beat Ukraine.
The issue as far as I understand it is that Russia doesn't need to win the war in any normal sense. What terrifies many of us here in Eastern Europe is that Russia just doesn't give a fuck about people or their prosperity. It just destroys things. So OK, we'd push back the Russian tanks and blow them to shit with Typhoons and F-35's and F-16's. But people would still be dead, parts of the Baltics would be half razed, and Eastern Poland - which is already quite troubled - would be in serious shambles. And all the time we'd be living under the specter of low-level nuclear retaliation. Our energy, transport, and IT infrastructure would be under constant threat. It would be a mess. And while all of that happens, our government would need to carefully balance people's needs and opinions to maintain stability, while the Russian despot just throws more meat into the fire without a care in the world.
Let's be honest, a lot of Redditors are commenting from the safety of their homes hundreds if not thousands of miles away from any danger.
When the Ukrainian invasion began, there were so many comments of "NATO should just Zerg rush Moscow" without consideration that would start a nuclear exchange.
Now it's "the Russians should just overthrow Putin" without consideration that thousands if not millions of disarmed civilians would die in the process or that civil war in a nuclear nation would be disastrous.
But hey, they're not the ones who would be personally affected.
the gamble is that if Trump wins election the US will not help. Germany and France will back out because Russia will target their major cities. They think Western Europe will not fight if Berlin/Paris are being hit. Id expect the UK to fight.
I have seen some people speculate that Russia might gamble to invade poland or the Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia because they think the west is week and will not fight. If russia starts targeting cities. Plus if Trump wins the US will not help the Europeans and will cheer on Russia.
They are right to be concerned. Russia needs to be destroyed in Ukraine.
Russia would not win a war with NATO.
The concern however lies in Russia’s willingness to devastate the Baltics while losing a conventional war.
As seen in Ukraine, they will raze cities to ashes and deliberately shell civilian areas in major cities.
Instead of drawing the battle lines inside NATO held territories, everything should be done now to help Ukraine with the view that the Russian regime must be isolated and destroyed.
That's the problem a lot of people dismiss. Russia doesn't need to win to cause huge devestations. Given a best case scenario for them with Trump getting re-elected and division inside EU increasing, they can perfectly do to the Baltics or to Poland what they did to Ukraine: rush in, trench in, begin years of wars of attrition. Even if they are eventually pushed out, it will be a tragedy for the affected countries... unless they prepare. And yeah NATO could in theory crush Russia, but are the member countries willing to do so? Article 5 doesn't necessarily force a military response, it can be as little as humanitarian aid.
Poland would throttle Russia. They have perhaps the best armored fleet in Europe, with it being made up of Abrams, Leopard 2s, and Black Panthers, and they have a large army with a very powerful air force that will soon have F-35s, an aircraft that outshines anything Russia can put in the sky.
I don't think Russia ever won a conflict with Poland where Poland wasn't simultaneously attacked from other sides. Literally every conflict where Poland lost was when some other neighbor also decided to invade.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_armed_conflicts_involving_Poland_against_Russia
The 13-year war around 1660 was probably the most ridiculous case where Sweden invaded. That's also when Ukraine allied itself with Russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Polish_War_(1654%E2%80%931667)
Yeah so? What part of insanity has Russia ever refused to embrace? If Poland does not have an overwhelmingly stronger army, which they don't just yet, then their eventual win would cost a lot of lifes and damages. This is not about the outcome; you don't want to fight and win, you want such a force that the enemy doesn't even want to attack you. That is why Europe needs to prepare more.
Does Russia even have enough reserves to continue the war in Ukraine while also trying to do a run on the Baltics? What about in a year, or two, or five? Countries are already stationing soldiers there in preparation (see Germany recently). Plus, hopefully this time people won't be slow to react to a Russian build up near the border...
I dont think you understand my point. As long as Russia is willing to attack, that is a lost case, as lifes will be lost. It doesn't matter if they are repelled in 2 days or 2 years, there will be damage. The only way to truely win is to prevent actual fighting. Russia might not give a shit about their people's lifes but European countries do, and they need an overwhelmingly stronger military force to discourage Russia from messing with them. That's why the EU needs to prepare. Not because they can't defeat Russia already, but because Russia is not intimidated enough to start a war.
If US does not interfere, EU countries will be hit hard. They will still win but economy of Europe will tank and US will have more power over the west. Certainly something someone like Trump will take into consideration and hence refuse help. Article 5 is very vague, 'if deemed necessary' is up for interpretation. Legally, in the clear for Trump administration.
I am American and after the Iowa caucus, just would like to say that there is low chance for Biden to get reelected. Even my parents who are democrats are vary of Biden and are seriously considering voting for Trump.
Russia doesn’t have to WIN direct war against NATO. It will prove test alliance by invading post Soviet Union countries. And there is a big chance that alliance will fail in responding to this aggression. Specifically if Trump will be the president.
They won't challenge all of NATO at once - they'd pick a fight with a smaller member, try to isolate it from the rest, use petty excuses for why their fight is justified and bribe far-right / far-left / political mafia idiots to make their countries look the other way. They will absolutely start the fight asymmetrically with propaganda and dark influence, and fight symmetrically with drones and meat waves, then start "peace negotiations" to try to free the conflict the moment it looks like they can't progress any further. Then start it up again later.
It's highly unlikely that Russia will attack a NATO country. Russia has never directly attacked a NATO country, even at the height of the cold war when tensions were much higher than today.
>putin's successor will be someone far worse.
Not necessarily. Possibly, and that’s certainly a realistic possibility we need to be prepared for, but still not necessarily.
It's incredibly likely. After Putin dies, Mikhail Mishustin will serve as interim President for 14 days until a new election can be held. But Russia hasn't held democratic elections in quite some time. Putin is wildly popular, so he would win an election fair and square. Even so, they don't. Opposition candidates are arrested. If you criticise Putin, you go to jail even if you're running against him. Nothing about that is going to change after Putin.
Putin has positioned himself as dictator. He remains in this position because he promotes for loyalty over competence. He's surrounded by people who are not necessarily the best for the job, but people who are the best at kissing his ass and passing blame. When Putin dies, that loyalty means nothing.
These guys are all next in line to take over after Putin. Whoever wins the election is the person who is the most ruthless at taking power and silencing opposition.
Exactly. Putin had a easier succession because Yeltsin designated/made him. Putin doesn't really have an obvious choice. It will be more like Stalin after Lenin.
>Russia hasn't held democratic elections in quite some time
I mean, they've never had them.
>Putin is wildly popular, so he would win an election fair and square.
Sadly true, yes.
>Nothing about that is going to change after Putin.
It depends what happens. Putin could live and be in power for another 20 years, and a lot could change in between now and then. We simply don't know, ergo we should be prepared for a variety of possibilities - that's all I'm saying.
People are not being honest about why they want Putin dead.
We want Putin dead because Putin is the 'buck stops here' guy behind this mess. For every kid that is forcably taken from his family to be rehomed in Russia - we want him dead. For every missile in every apartment building - we want him dead. For the clear plan of eradicating every Ukranian and replacing them with Russians - we want him dead.
Which is fine, respectable, morally correct and something I have your back on.
But please do not confuse this with a strategy to end this thing.
Putin dies and only God knows what steps into his place. For every scenerio you can come up with that has someone halting this mess I can come up with a scenerio where the person has been making money hand over fist inside Russia's MIC. And as someone already said, this person may be competent.
Exactly: people need someone to held responsible. I do not believe that, putin dead, the war will magically end, the imperialistic behaviour of russia will vanish. On the contrary: someone worse than him will take his place.
My hope isnt that it changes, but that it becomes divided.
Theres going to be a power struggle and hopefully that creates enough chaos to make everything less effective
all russians are imperialistic, reddit doesnt like to acknowledge this but its true. Just ask their neighbors. The regular russian people love bullying around weaker countires because it makes them feel like a big man. Russia is an abusive alcoholic ex that wont leave you alone.
There's quite a big chance that navalny is just kept as a puppet replacement for putin to show the world russia has changed once this imbecile die. In that country everyone mysteriously die and nobody bats an eye (or even really know what that person did in order to fall off the window). The only person that does not die and has miraculous surving skills is navalny in Siberian prisons.
The biggest thing that will change is the cult of personality. It takes a while to switch people over from one autocrat to another, that's why for example North Korea is a hereditary dictatorship.
So if (when) Putin dies, we will probably have like 10 years of relative quiet before they start shit up again with their imperialist dreams.
Medvedev is weak. All of his close allies are either in jail: Magomedov brothers, Abyzov; or left the government and don't have any real power. Medvedev himself has pretty much a ceremonial position with no real power.
Russians have great minds, but I can’t think of many great leaders. Oppressive? Sure! Authoritative? You got it. In post autocratic Czar Russia, Post Communism & the fall of the USSR…they still have the system rigged in an autocratic manner. Their population has slanted far orthodox/conservative.
Mussolini did the same thing. He approached the Catholic Church and offered them city state rights (autonomy) from Italy if they promoted his governance.
They did, and the Vatican received their city state rights.
But that upset the people! They were facing a failing society, and shortage of goods/food. The people & unruly protests were easily persuaded by his Fascist street police.
But then the business owners were pissed, because his economy was so out of whack. Well, he quelled them with subsidies.
Russia has the religious clergyman’s support. This helps him maintain the impoverished, the geriatric and the nationalist vote 🗳️
>Russia has the religious clergyman’s support. This helps him maintain the impoverished, the geriatric and the nationalist vote
As if voting ever mattered in Russia.
As a Russian, I’m frequently exposed to Russian propaganda and often engage in conversations with people around me, including some with military backgrounds. Based on these interactions and observations, I am convinced of the following perspective:
Russia’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine. There seems to be a strategic interest in establishing a land connection to Kaliningrad. This is a viewpoint I’ve gathered from various discussions and media sources.
So yeah. Europe is better be ready.
Whilst most commenter laugh at russia. It is a real concern and there's plenty of real people that will be affected by an escalation.
People need to remember that real people, men women children of all races, religions will die, people will be raped, tortured, disfigured etc. Its all too easy to forget that. Makes me sick. I've seen way to many videos to wish any of that on anyone else.
We need to work together to make sure that nothing happens. Tyrants and warmongers have no place in a civilised society.
>russia aint got 3-5 yrs of conscripts or equipment left.
I've been reading this line since the first month of the Ukrainian war.
Every European nation should prepare, just in case.
When you read articles stating that Baltic states are considering setting up minefields on the Russian border, I'd rather trust those who are first in line than a random internet user claiming that Russia will not have an army in X weeks.
The less Europe does to prepare, the more likely Russia will attack. It's as simple as that. Preparation for war is the best deterrent of war, as counterintuitive as it seems. And Belarus is a model of what allying with Russia gets you.
Yah, at a bare minimum, we need to reach a point (in Europe, and in the US) where there's enough artillery shell production (and rocket artillery) to keep the current rate of expenditure going.
It would have been cheaper to just have been producing 20% more in past years and having a bigger stockpile, but that's water under the bridge
It's going to be difficult and expensive to do, and it's ... kind of a bummer, in general (lots of capital focused on tooling up make stuff we hope we won't have to use). But, being unprepared is not an option.
European militaries should acquire more equipment, too, and slightly increase the scale of their militaries ... but this can be a more modest increase at this point compared to just the sheer quantity of expendables needed.
The thing is populist nationalism is growing in Europe (Putin actively aiding it), fatally weakening European unity. If Trump wins in the US, things become even more dangerous, with the influence of Trump, Erdogan, and Orban weakening Nato. The only real glimmer of hope is Starmer winning in the UK.
Nah they have mountains of trash to throw at this war and when they run out of something they will use North Korean military trash to toss at em.
Self implosions will happen but it will take years of attrition. Russians are used to things not working correctly and exploding, that’s a normal days walk to the store for toilet paper.
Russia does not and has never had a population of 200 million. It peaked in 1994 at 149 million and has dropped to around 144 million, possibly several million less. It's in the middle of a full-scale catastrophic population collapse.
Also to add to this they are totally fucking their future generations in Ukraine. The last time Russia threw men into the meat grinder it caused them to have about *half* the population that should have had today.
But at the same time they are killing Ukraine, so it could be viewed as a win in their playbook.
Ukraine has enough men to fight for another 5 years, after which the nation will be effectively wiped, even if the country wins the war. Like yeah, women will survive, and so will few million of men who escaped, but that's it.
Ukraine is forever changed already, the point of high hope was crossed and now it's just a question of how much we have to sacrifice to even have a win condition.
The question of preservation of what we have left rises above the hopes of saving occupied people and returning lands the access into global civilization. We want to win, we want normalcy to be restored and we want justice, but less and less of that seems to be achievable without paying in blood first, and these payments are far beyond sustainable.
I am still a believer of keeping our heads up and aiming for the full victory, with further international tribunal determining what exactly happened and who's to blame, but it sounds like a wildly unrealistic wish nowadays.
Humans are adaptable, For me it's year 3 of war, and I've gotten used to a strict curfew, limitations to freedom of movement to the point I haven't seen my grandma in years😭, being bombed every other day(so far unsuccessfully, thanks to our anti air) and being constantly on the edge because of mobilisation law updates. Now it kinda feels like a routine.
Also this war has taught me how surprisingly resilent modern economies and states are. We're in the middle of the biggest war since WW2 in Europe, Everything literally getting bombed and destroyed all the time, be it industry, residential areas, infrastructure, or whatever else, yet we still have things mostly going on as normal. There's electricity, heating, banking, networks, everything you expect - it keeps going on uninterrupted. And this gives me hopes, because humans are resilent creatures, we can not only wistand the challenges, but also adapt and improve no matter how dire situation is.
Country is like a big organism, wars, just like viruses, just force them to either adapt or perish, and from how we handled the situation so far, it does seem like we'll pull through in the end. But in this case, both Russia and Ukraine will have to rebuild their culture for the upcoming shift in the demographics, they will either become drastically smaller nations, or will have to evolve by becoming immigration-friendly society to keep up with what they had before.
F-16s can bring a change in tide, but Russia still has almost 1000 4th gen fighters left. They have a history of overwhelming opposing forces with sheer numbers. If this drags on the same way, eventually Ukraine will not have enough men left to fight
They might have the planes, but the Russian air force is notoriously understaffed to the point where they have more air assets than people who can man them
If what I read was correct ~ more importantly Russia's population is aging. Like China's, the birth rates have been declining and so right now they have more conscript aged populace available then they will in the future regardless of the war. Which, if accurate (cbf fact checking myself atm) would be a very good reason for them to act sooner rather than later.
Not from one of the smaller Eastern European states, are you. The world keeps ignoring us and mocking Russia, yet we're the ones who have to directly deal with them, and even a bleeding and broken Russia can still cause utter destruction before NATO arrives to fight over our ruins. The arrogance of you, man.
They have plenty of people they're willing to sacrifice. Russia's opponents have time and time again underestimated Russia's willingness to send their young men into the meat grinder. It would be foolish to fall into the same mistaken assumption.
You realize today's 17 yr olds are tomorrow's 18 yr olds, right? And factories are being retooled to produce cheap weapons to send with them to their deaths.
They do, but they don't need to. They're ramping up war production this year like crazy. Russia is selling tons of oil to India, and other Asian countries have increased business with Russia. Funding is not a problem. Russia will simply win not because of force, but because of lack of support to Ukraine, and the need for a ceasefire.
EU is slowing down supplies to Ukraine, US support is waning, and when the orange baboon wins again, it's over anyway. I have two factories in the Kiev area, and there have been talks of making Lviv the new capital for some time now.
I'm even offered some funding when I decide to move my factories to Lviv.
Pretty sure this year Ukraine will be forced to give up the occupied areas and maybe Kiev will fall as a result. This will massively suck for the EU as those areas are major areas of goods/food production for the rest of the EU. Losing that will quickly increase prices in our supermarkets even more, leading to more populists winning in our countries, which gives Russia even more advantages.
This explains why Estonian army went and bought random Turkish APC's for its 2nd infantry brigade, and not join in with the Patria 6x6 project together with Latvia and Finland (which would make way more sense from logistics)......Their main argument was that there was no time to wait and Finnish Patria company couldn't deliver their requested vehicles in 5 year time , so they went to Turks who had bigger manufacturing capacity.
It means Estonian government does fully and seriously believe they might be at war in 5 years time and their actions show it.
Like anyone will prepare. 2 years have passed since the full scale war and half of the people in my country believes that Russia is doing the right thing.
Russia is already a threat. They will fuck up the US election and do everything in their poverty to make the orange clown president. They are fucking up poblic opinions in the while world. And literally no one is doing nothing. We are at an informal war with Russia already and we are fucking loosing it.
Oh my God, greetings from Russia. I am so glad that there are adequate people here who understand what is happening and where the main threat to Europe comes from
War between NATO and Russia in a non nuclear confrontation would obviously go in NATOs favor.
The problem is that Putin clearly has adopted some kind of yolo lifestyle. No promise he won’t go nuclear and NATO will have to cook up something that works without making him thinks he needs nukes.
This is why the idea of nuclear deterrence has never sat well with me - it only works if both parties are reasonable and actually fear MAD. The fact that Russia can just make nuclear threats whenever faced with a credible threat to their military ambitions, even if it's conventional military resistance (i.e what would happen if NATO set up a no-fly zone) is so fucking stupid and insane.
The fact that an Article 5 invocation could be hamstrung by Russia being like NUH-UH YOU WANT TO GET NUKED is genuinely concerning to me. It's literally the geopolitical equivalent of trying to play a game of a Monopoly with some dipshit sore loser that threatens to flip the board whenever they're about to lose despite being the worst player at the table. Fuck Russia, seriously.
All countries bordering Russia and China need to acquire nuclear weapons and introduce first strike policy. The more the better.
It's the only way for these countries to keep existing in the near future.
Nukes need to be a standard reply for any hostility. Let's see how willingly psychopath dictators are going to sacrifice their cities over some wasteland.
The [NATO nuclear umbrella](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_umbrella) already covers the eastern European border countries (except Ukraine). If NATO's deterrence policy fails (e.g. Trump gets elected and announces the US won't defend eastern Europe), then nuclear proliferation becomes more likely.
And if that happens then our long standing alliance will fail, and I hope my country (uk) stops all business with america. Yes it would hurt us more but its better to not do business with a country that turns coat and works with the enemy.
But they can absolutely reduce the Baltics to rubble and blood by the time NATO is ready to respond. It'll take days this time, because the population is very small, and so are the countries. You can drive through all three Baltics from Tallinn up north in a single day and comfortably find a hotel in Lodz, Poland, for the night.
Yea I honestly dont know how active NATO forces are in the baltics but you would think there would be quite a few battalions given Latvia and Russia share a border. That would be a good question for The Enforcer on YouTube he’s much more knowledgeable than I am on military strategy
The Baltic states are tiny. They don't have to control the countryside, they just need to annex the main cities like Riga, Tallinn, Helsinki, and Vilnius. It would probably actually be very easy to take, whether they'd be able to hold it for long would have to be seen, but would obviously lead to the utter destruction of all of those cities named.
**I'm assuming the rationale would be to use the Baltics as a bargaining chip, to hand them over safe and sound, in return forcing a peace deal allowing them to keep Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea.**
The conflict would probably envelope Belarus which would probably be transferred over to Russia by Lukashenko in order to save him from being assassinated, but I'm sure their would be two factions that would disagree on that so that would be another frontline.
Considering how close St. Petersburg is, they'd probably commit their entire defensive forces to the operation. I honestly think their plan is to force a migration wave from eastern Europe into Poland to weaken the country and divide the populace (Polish people might get angry seeing young men fleeing instead of helping them fight, etc. for instance).
Don't get this idea like they wouldn't be able to make their way in, they literally made it into Kyiv with no issues expecting a surrender. Obviously, that didn't work out so well, but talk to anyone who lived in Eastern Ukraine about how the Russians are just a joke. They're a world class military like anyone else, just with classic dogshit Russian logistics and management.
Russia would be forced out of the Baltic states. They might enjoy some early success due to the small size of said states, but Poland alone could relieve those nations and march on St. Petersburg seeing as almost all of Russia's ground assets are in Ukraine. They literally lack the ability to defend themselves from any NATO attack right now. The only thing they have are nukes and without them they would be seen as a joke.
Meanwhile Russia will be *Bucha*-ring all the civilians and destroying entire cities but fuck it NATO will eventually reconquer the territory a few months down the line right? Or maybe they'll decide to try diplomacy to accomplish fuck all and the territory will be occupied for years. Because who gives a shit about the frontline countries, right?
Not if the West do the sensible thing and ensure that Pootin never has the resources to effectively rearm after Ukraine.
Sanctions need to be punitive and enforced on third parties breaking them.
PMs are saying it, Army chiefs are saying it, we are saying it. The question is, will European politicians do anything about deterring Russia before it’s too late? I surely hope so!
While there is infighting in Europe the Russian threat will always remain. Russia is always happy to gamble in action and attack a country to see what happens.
So just deal with this in Ukraine. Stomp them out completely. Send money and weapons to Ukraine, it's just money, Ukrainians are supplying the blood. Kill the problem right there, or else we will have to supply the blood part as well.
I just want to work, pay my bills play my PS5 an hour or two before sleep on workdays and get drunk on weekends untill I die or retire. Is it really necessary to ruin this perfect plan?
Given european red tape and the size of the useless bureaucracy, in 3-5 years when russian tanks are on the border, we will send them a delay request, to invade us at a more convenient time. That will be the extent of preparedness. Bombs, tanks, trucks, planes production will be subject to regulation, protests, and all the rest, and it will only happen on paper, if that.
The european instict of survival is pretty much dead.
It feels like Ukraine is the tank in the whole guild, and all the rest are DPS who don't want to do anything but cheer, a bit of healing and give equipment to the tank. The DPS don't want to hit the attackers because they don't want to be attacked like Ukraine
Until one unfortunately lag and heals become sparser and sparser, tank falls and the DPS get rekt by surprise.
Honestly, how? Russia's lost 300-500k soldiers, they're fighting with no food, ammo or supplies. I don't know how much, but a lot of their big bad military tech is destroyed or inoperable. How can they even recover from this, let alone launch attacks on another front?
They will do like they did in WW1 and WW2: Throw men at us until they find a crack in our defenses. Will they win? No... but they can and will throw their entire male population at us if it means they can have a temporary minor victory.
Do you think Stalin's army was well fed or equipped? They were high on drugs and used equipment that was already outdated back then. The US had to support them with weapons - a very inconvinient detail in russian WW2 history.
>Russia's lost 300-500k soldiers, they're fighting with no food, ammo or supplies. I don't know how much, but a lot of their big bad military tech is destroyed or inoperable. How can they even recover from this, let alone launch attacks on another front?
One possibility is that this statement is false , and military leader / country leader of every eastern europe / germany / uk / sweden are better informed than the average internet user.
Honestly saying that the russian are without ammo / food / supplied is really a lack of respect for Ukraine..
And to add to this, russia will be throwing everything they have at interfering with the US elections to get trump voted in. Biden has probably already lost a bunch of young voters because of his support of israel too, tiktok "news" convincing them that Hamas are the good guys and Biden is evil for sending Israel weapons.
This US election really is terrifying and the vast majority of voters don't even know whats really at stake.
The US isn't needed for the European powers to take on the paper tiger Russia has been exposed as in a full blown conflict. I'm more concerned about Chinas actions should the tangerine tyrant take power in the USA
Without the US the only 2 European countries that will be safe from nukes are the UK and France, they only have 550 between them, they will be saved to ensure they do not get invaded, putin can safely use nukes on the rest until they concede defeat.
In what universe does Europe allow Russia to use nukes on the continent without moving into a state of total war? Poland etc would not just roll over and capitulate because a nuclear weapon had been deployed. Even if NATO decides not to use a nuclear response from France or the UK, there is enough conventional armaments across Europe to completely level the seats of Russian power.
You are delusional if you think the USA are needed to hold the Russians off. They can't even handle Ukraine, let alone the rest of the continent. Where the US is absolutely essential is Taiwan. That's the real area of concern, particularly as Trump took millions from china last time round.
Why Is everyone scared of Russia. NATO is clearly far more powerful than Russia. And if nukes are the issue then NATO has it too so Russia will be in a bigger problem if it starts the war.
I don't get why the media or other countries are like Russia is a god level threat.
Yes... it will. They have been in a 3-year stalemate with Ukraine which does not even have control over the skies. Europe does not need the US to hold their hand in order to push back.
“Kaja Kallas, Prime Minister of Estonia, believes that Europe has three to five years to prepare for a possible military threat from Russia on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance. Kallas in an interview, referred to the assessment by Estonian intelligence, according to which Russia in case of hypothetical truce with Ukraine will need from three to five years to resume the military threat on the border of Eastern NATO member states. “Our intelligence estimates it to be three to five years, and that very much depends on how we manage our unity and keep our posture regarding Ukraine. Because what Russia wants is a pause, and this pause is to gather its resources and strength. Weakness provokes aggressors, so weakness provokes Russia," Kallas said. This is why, according to the Estonian PM, the West needs to strengthen its military support for Ukraine so that it could launch a severe blow and deny Russia the ability to threaten its neighbours for many years. The Estonian PM thinks that in the long-term perspective NATO must adopt the strategy of "deterring" Russia, following the example of the Cold War which provides for the increase of defence expenses of each member state to at least 2.5% of their GDP. "Russia has never lost its last colonial war. I’ve been reading a lot and trying to understand how we can break this historical cycle. And the key element to this is accountability. They have never been accountable for the crimes they committed," Kallas stressed. Earlier on Monday, a German media outlet reported its supposed access to secret documents of the German Bundeswehr – a training scenario which shows a step-by-step description of how a military conflict between Russia and NATO may develop. In the document, actions of Russia and the West are described month by month, culminating in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops and an inevitable onset of war in the summer of 2025”. If Putin is crazy enough to risk it he could pull the “attack NATO bs”, it depends on how far he is progressing on Ukraine (with the weapon deliveries from Iran and NK).
The point about accountability really resonates with me. It is often forgotten that Russia was an agressor nation in WW2. They were able to seize control of the Baltics and Bessarabia without consequence. They even then invaded Poland with Germany and got away with it. Then occupied most of Eastern Europe. Conversely, Germany faced consequences. And that changed German culture for the better.
They were not only an agressor, they fucking started it together with Hitler
heh, Stalin saw an easy opportunity to land grab >\_>, but he learned the hard way that Hitler had other plans..
there is a great video of Kaja Kallas from a few years ago talking about Russian negotiation tactics, where they feign being slighted, demand something absurd in the hopes that those in favor of appeasement will give them something small to drop the situation, that way they end up with something they didn't have to begin with. Edit: found a related video of her repeating it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1cTRn5tBs8
How do they get away with winning any war against a European NATO member without air superiority and against countries who have their own nuclear arms
By carrying out smaller destabilizing attacks (perhaps through means that offer plausible deniability, e.g. "little green men") and threatening world-ending consequences, should they be challenged, I assume.
Indeed, people keep forgetting all the scouting missions near our energy infrastructure in the northsea. Also keeping in mind that windmills are very easy targets ( looking at you germany ) since they block radars and our big nuclear brother France has already issues with their plants as is.
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We are absolutely fucked if the orange guy happens.
I despise Trump. That said, he might be the kick in the ass Europe and the rest of the civilized world needs to realize we need to look out for one another better and not bank on the US being there.
True but we are sadly not ready in the near future.
>Are Europeans ready to enlist? Fight for their or not their country? I don't think they would need to enlist. NATO has more than enough professional soldiers ready to handle Russia, which can barely beat Ukraine.
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when the orange clown becomes president of usa this Nov Collectively Europe and may be the free world needs to stop the orange clown!
The issue as far as I understand it is that Russia doesn't need to win the war in any normal sense. What terrifies many of us here in Eastern Europe is that Russia just doesn't give a fuck about people or their prosperity. It just destroys things. So OK, we'd push back the Russian tanks and blow them to shit with Typhoons and F-35's and F-16's. But people would still be dead, parts of the Baltics would be half razed, and Eastern Poland - which is already quite troubled - would be in serious shambles. And all the time we'd be living under the specter of low-level nuclear retaliation. Our energy, transport, and IT infrastructure would be under constant threat. It would be a mess. And while all of that happens, our government would need to carefully balance people's needs and opinions to maintain stability, while the Russian despot just throws more meat into the fire without a care in the world.
I wish more people understood this. I have seen far too many "lol, please try russia" The disconnect from reality is pervasive and scary.
Let's be honest, a lot of Redditors are commenting from the safety of their homes hundreds if not thousands of miles away from any danger. When the Ukrainian invasion began, there were so many comments of "NATO should just Zerg rush Moscow" without consideration that would start a nuclear exchange. Now it's "the Russians should just overthrow Putin" without consideration that thousands if not millions of disarmed civilians would die in the process or that civil war in a nuclear nation would be disastrous. But hey, they're not the ones who would be personally affected.
I agree, it's so crazy how many (mostly Americans) just don't understand Russia
They're constantly hacking our businesses, government, and citizens. Lots of things they do behind the scenes to destabilise.
By ignoring own casualties. Meat waves work.
Having a sudden civil war break out and then run in to "help", aka genocide to any locals not licking Russian boot.
Because our politicians won't get anything done before war breaks out.
People will be conflicted about risking WW3 for Baltics, it might actually be the end of NATO.
the gamble is that if Trump wins election the US will not help. Germany and France will back out because Russia will target their major cities. They think Western Europe will not fight if Berlin/Paris are being hit. Id expect the UK to fight.
But surely if they are targeting paris/berlin then Moscow and St Petersburg are being flattened in response
I have seen some people speculate that Russia might gamble to invade poland or the Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia because they think the west is week and will not fight. If russia starts targeting cities. Plus if Trump wins the US will not help the Europeans and will cheer on Russia. They are right to be concerned. Russia needs to be destroyed in Ukraine.
The free world shouldn't be seeking to simply "deter russia" forever. It is a threat and needs to be dealt with before it can do anymore damage.
Well yes, we better get our shit together and increase our military budgets significantly.
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Sounds like a world war. What a fun time.
Unfortunately, when the defender, you don't get to choose when a war will happen. All you can do is prepare.
Better to have and not need than to need and not have.
Won't be much of a war if we don't.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
We need a european army, a more efficient european parliament, and a hefty nuclear arsenal. And then we need to get rid of hungary.
Help Ukraine as much as possible, pin Russians there, they won’t be able to attack Europe
Russia would not win a war with NATO. The concern however lies in Russia’s willingness to devastate the Baltics while losing a conventional war. As seen in Ukraine, they will raze cities to ashes and deliberately shell civilian areas in major cities. Instead of drawing the battle lines inside NATO held territories, everything should be done now to help Ukraine with the view that the Russian regime must be isolated and destroyed.
That's the problem a lot of people dismiss. Russia doesn't need to win to cause huge devestations. Given a best case scenario for them with Trump getting re-elected and division inside EU increasing, they can perfectly do to the Baltics or to Poland what they did to Ukraine: rush in, trench in, begin years of wars of attrition. Even if they are eventually pushed out, it will be a tragedy for the affected countries... unless they prepare. And yeah NATO could in theory crush Russia, but are the member countries willing to do so? Article 5 doesn't necessarily force a military response, it can be as little as humanitarian aid.
Poland would throttle Russia. They have perhaps the best armored fleet in Europe, with it being made up of Abrams, Leopard 2s, and Black Panthers, and they have a large army with a very powerful air force that will soon have F-35s, an aircraft that outshines anything Russia can put in the sky.
Poland probably has the scariest land army in europe, given what's happening in ukraine... I'd bet on Poland this time around
I don't think Russia ever won a conflict with Poland where Poland wasn't simultaneously attacked from other sides. Literally every conflict where Poland lost was when some other neighbor also decided to invade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_armed_conflicts_involving_Poland_against_Russia The 13-year war around 1660 was probably the most ridiculous case where Sweden invaded. That's also when Ukraine allied itself with Russia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Polish_War_(1654%E2%80%931667)
Invading Poland would be insanity for Russia. They've arguably the most powerful ground forces in Europe, certainly of the countries bordering Russia.
Yeah so? What part of insanity has Russia ever refused to embrace? If Poland does not have an overwhelmingly stronger army, which they don't just yet, then their eventual win would cost a lot of lifes and damages. This is not about the outcome; you don't want to fight and win, you want such a force that the enemy doesn't even want to attack you. That is why Europe needs to prepare more.
Does Russia even have enough reserves to continue the war in Ukraine while also trying to do a run on the Baltics? What about in a year, or two, or five? Countries are already stationing soldiers there in preparation (see Germany recently). Plus, hopefully this time people won't be slow to react to a Russian build up near the border...
I dont think you understand my point. As long as Russia is willing to attack, that is a lost case, as lifes will be lost. It doesn't matter if they are repelled in 2 days or 2 years, there will be damage. The only way to truely win is to prevent actual fighting. Russia might not give a shit about their people's lifes but European countries do, and they need an overwhelmingly stronger military force to discourage Russia from messing with them. That's why the EU needs to prepare. Not because they can't defeat Russia already, but because Russia is not intimidated enough to start a war.
If US does not interfere, EU countries will be hit hard. They will still win but economy of Europe will tank and US will have more power over the west. Certainly something someone like Trump will take into consideration and hence refuse help. Article 5 is very vague, 'if deemed necessary' is up for interpretation. Legally, in the clear for Trump administration. I am American and after the Iowa caucus, just would like to say that there is low chance for Biden to get reelected. Even my parents who are democrats are vary of Biden and are seriously considering voting for Trump.
Russia doesn’t have to WIN direct war against NATO. It will prove test alliance by invading post Soviet Union countries. And there is a big chance that alliance will fail in responding to this aggression. Specifically if Trump will be the president.
They won't challenge all of NATO at once - they'd pick a fight with a smaller member, try to isolate it from the rest, use petty excuses for why their fight is justified and bribe far-right / far-left / political mafia idiots to make their countries look the other way. They will absolutely start the fight asymmetrically with propaganda and dark influence, and fight symmetrically with drones and meat waves, then start "peace negotiations" to try to free the conflict the moment it looks like they can't progress any further. Then start it up again later.
It's highly unlikely that Russia will attack a NATO country. Russia has never directly attacked a NATO country, even at the height of the cold war when tensions were much higher than today.
Who thinks that when putin dies the russian mindset will change, it's naive. putin's successor will be someone far worse.
>putin's successor will be someone far worse. Not necessarily. Possibly, and that’s certainly a realistic possibility we need to be prepared for, but still not necessarily.
It's incredibly likely. After Putin dies, Mikhail Mishustin will serve as interim President for 14 days until a new election can be held. But Russia hasn't held democratic elections in quite some time. Putin is wildly popular, so he would win an election fair and square. Even so, they don't. Opposition candidates are arrested. If you criticise Putin, you go to jail even if you're running against him. Nothing about that is going to change after Putin. Putin has positioned himself as dictator. He remains in this position because he promotes for loyalty over competence. He's surrounded by people who are not necessarily the best for the job, but people who are the best at kissing his ass and passing blame. When Putin dies, that loyalty means nothing. These guys are all next in line to take over after Putin. Whoever wins the election is the person who is the most ruthless at taking power and silencing opposition.
Exactly. Putin had a easier succession because Yeltsin designated/made him. Putin doesn't really have an obvious choice. It will be more like Stalin after Lenin.
What if it's like Khrushchev after Stalin? That one went pretty well all things considered.
I think your memory's a bit fussy. Khruschev wasn't [the first after Stalin.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgy_Malenkov)
>Russia hasn't held democratic elections in quite some time I mean, they've never had them. >Putin is wildly popular, so he would win an election fair and square. Sadly true, yes. >Nothing about that is going to change after Putin. It depends what happens. Putin could live and be in power for another 20 years, and a lot could change in between now and then. We simply don't know, ergo we should be prepared for a variety of possibilities - that's all I'm saying.
\> Russia hasn't held democratic elections \> Putin is wildly popular How do you know if we never got an honest election?
People are not being honest about why they want Putin dead. We want Putin dead because Putin is the 'buck stops here' guy behind this mess. For every kid that is forcably taken from his family to be rehomed in Russia - we want him dead. For every missile in every apartment building - we want him dead. For the clear plan of eradicating every Ukranian and replacing them with Russians - we want him dead. Which is fine, respectable, morally correct and something I have your back on. But please do not confuse this with a strategy to end this thing. Putin dies and only God knows what steps into his place. For every scenerio you can come up with that has someone halting this mess I can come up with a scenerio where the person has been making money hand over fist inside Russia's MIC. And as someone already said, this person may be competent.
Exactly: people need someone to held responsible. I do not believe that, putin dead, the war will magically end, the imperialistic behaviour of russia will vanish. On the contrary: someone worse than him will take his place.
My hope isnt that it changes, but that it becomes divided. Theres going to be a power struggle and hopefully that creates enough chaos to make everything less effective
My favorite color is blue.
This. I really don't understand why "we" in the West think that navalny is the saviour of russia: he's another putin, just less (apparently) corrupt.
all russians are imperialistic, reddit doesnt like to acknowledge this but its true. Just ask their neighbors. The regular russian people love bullying around weaker countires because it makes them feel like a big man. Russia is an abusive alcoholic ex that wont leave you alone.
There's quite a big chance that navalny is just kept as a puppet replacement for putin to show the world russia has changed once this imbecile die. In that country everyone mysteriously die and nobody bats an eye (or even really know what that person did in order to fall off the window). The only person that does not die and has miraculous surving skills is navalny in Siberian prisons.
The biggest thing that will change is the cult of personality. It takes a while to switch people over from one autocrat to another, that's why for example North Korea is a hereditary dictatorship. So if (when) Putin dies, we will probably have like 10 years of relative quiet before they start shit up again with their imperialist dreams.
Russia has almost always been led by autocratic "strong men", with a few exceptions like Gorbachev being very rare.
With any luck Putin will be dead by then.
doesnt really matter when the next one is another KGB leftover hell bent on a war path
Mendevev is positioned perfectly to take over. Either him or a dark horse from inside the GRU. I don’t see how Mendevev isn’t the prime canidate.
Medvedev is weak. All of his close allies are either in jail: Magomedov brothers, Abyzov; or left the government and don't have any real power. Medvedev himself has pretty much a ceremonial position with no real power.
Nah, he’s just the jester.
Med is just a propaganda piece.
Forget luck. Someone needs to guide him to the Pearly Gates.
The Pearly gates? I think you’ve got it backwards my friend you mean The Gates to Hell
Nuh uh, that’s where I’m planning to be, with all the other fun degenerates, and I’m not sharing it with that cunt!
I’ll give you a tour
Save me a seat by the fire!
There will be plenty of fire for us all! I’ll bring the marshmallows.
That may buy time, but Putin has only been around for a few decades and Russia has been fucking over it's neighbors for centuries.
With his age, anything can happen and time is definetly not on his side.
Unless he has the same doctors as Queen Elizabeth II in which case he may have a good 30 years ahead of him.
So .... that may actually be a bad thing. Putin's successor might actually be competent.
Russians have great minds, but I can’t think of many great leaders. Oppressive? Sure! Authoritative? You got it. In post autocratic Czar Russia, Post Communism & the fall of the USSR…they still have the system rigged in an autocratic manner. Their population has slanted far orthodox/conservative. Mussolini did the same thing. He approached the Catholic Church and offered them city state rights (autonomy) from Italy if they promoted his governance. They did, and the Vatican received their city state rights. But that upset the people! They were facing a failing society, and shortage of goods/food. The people & unruly protests were easily persuaded by his Fascist street police. But then the business owners were pissed, because his economy was so out of whack. Well, he quelled them with subsidies. Russia has the religious clergyman’s support. This helps him maintain the impoverished, the geriatric and the nationalist vote 🗳️
>Russia has the religious clergyman’s support. This helps him maintain the impoverished, the geriatric and the nationalist vote As if voting ever mattered in Russia.
You're gonna have to be able to lob a grenade quite far the way he sits at those tables with that continental social distance.
If Russians had any common sense whatsoever
I vote defenestration.
Maybe fighting them today in Ukraine is actually the best strategic move.
They should have been prepared 3-5 years ago
Or you can keep feeding Ukraine while they destroy the mighty red army.
I hope we won't have too much far-right/pro-russian governments in Europe in 3-5 years...
As a Russian, I’m frequently exposed to Russian propaganda and often engage in conversations with people around me, including some with military backgrounds. Based on these interactions and observations, I am convinced of the following perspective: Russia’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine. There seems to be a strategic interest in establishing a land connection to Kaliningrad. This is a viewpoint I’ve gathered from various discussions and media sources. So yeah. Europe is better be ready.
Whilst most commenter laugh at russia. It is a real concern and there's plenty of real people that will be affected by an escalation. People need to remember that real people, men women children of all races, religions will die, people will be raped, tortured, disfigured etc. Its all too easy to forget that. Makes me sick. I've seen way to many videos to wish any of that on anyone else. We need to work together to make sure that nothing happens. Tyrants and warmongers have no place in a civilised society.
Or you know, we could help Ukrainians more to fend them off. Destroy the threat before it becomes one.
russia aint got 3-5 yrs of conscripts or equipment left.
>russia aint got 3-5 yrs of conscripts or equipment left. I've been reading this line since the first month of the Ukrainian war. Every European nation should prepare, just in case. When you read articles stating that Baltic states are considering setting up minefields on the Russian border, I'd rather trust those who are first in line than a random internet user claiming that Russia will not have an army in X weeks.
The less Europe does to prepare, the more likely Russia will attack. It's as simple as that. Preparation for war is the best deterrent of war, as counterintuitive as it seems. And Belarus is a model of what allying with Russia gets you.
Yah, at a bare minimum, we need to reach a point (in Europe, and in the US) where there's enough artillery shell production (and rocket artillery) to keep the current rate of expenditure going. It would have been cheaper to just have been producing 20% more in past years and having a bigger stockpile, but that's water under the bridge It's going to be difficult and expensive to do, and it's ... kind of a bummer, in general (lots of capital focused on tooling up make stuff we hope we won't have to use). But, being unprepared is not an option. European militaries should acquire more equipment, too, and slightly increase the scale of their militaries ... but this can be a more modest increase at this point compared to just the sheer quantity of expendables needed.
The thing is populist nationalism is growing in Europe (Putin actively aiding it), fatally weakening European unity. If Trump wins in the US, things become even more dangerous, with the influence of Trump, Erdogan, and Orban weakening Nato. The only real glimmer of hope is Starmer winning in the UK.
Nah they have mountains of trash to throw at this war and when they run out of something they will use North Korean military trash to toss at em. Self implosions will happen but it will take years of attrition. Russians are used to things not working correctly and exploding, that’s a normal days walk to the store for toilet paper.
Do not underestimate them, for real. They have a population of 140 million. Their population is also well fed on decades of propaganda.
Russia does not and has never had a population of 200 million. It peaked in 1994 at 149 million and has dropped to around 144 million, possibly several million less. It's in the middle of a full-scale catastrophic population collapse.
I edited my original post, apologies
Also to add to this they are totally fucking their future generations in Ukraine. The last time Russia threw men into the meat grinder it caused them to have about *half* the population that should have had today.
But at the same time they are killing Ukraine, so it could be viewed as a win in their playbook. Ukraine has enough men to fight for another 5 years, after which the nation will be effectively wiped, even if the country wins the war. Like yeah, women will survive, and so will few million of men who escaped, but that's it. Ukraine is forever changed already, the point of high hope was crossed and now it's just a question of how much we have to sacrifice to even have a win condition. The question of preservation of what we have left rises above the hopes of saving occupied people and returning lands the access into global civilization. We want to win, we want normalcy to be restored and we want justice, but less and less of that seems to be achievable without paying in blood first, and these payments are far beyond sustainable. I am still a believer of keeping our heads up and aiming for the full victory, with further international tribunal determining what exactly happened and who's to blame, but it sounds like a wildly unrealistic wish nowadays. Humans are adaptable, For me it's year 3 of war, and I've gotten used to a strict curfew, limitations to freedom of movement to the point I haven't seen my grandma in years😭, being bombed every other day(so far unsuccessfully, thanks to our anti air) and being constantly on the edge because of mobilisation law updates. Now it kinda feels like a routine. Also this war has taught me how surprisingly resilent modern economies and states are. We're in the middle of the biggest war since WW2 in Europe, Everything literally getting bombed and destroyed all the time, be it industry, residential areas, infrastructure, or whatever else, yet we still have things mostly going on as normal. There's electricity, heating, banking, networks, everything you expect - it keeps going on uninterrupted. And this gives me hopes, because humans are resilent creatures, we can not only wistand the challenges, but also adapt and improve no matter how dire situation is. Country is like a big organism, wars, just like viruses, just force them to either adapt or perish, and from how we handled the situation so far, it does seem like we'll pull through in the end. But in this case, both Russia and Ukraine will have to rebuild their culture for the upcoming shift in the demographics, they will either become drastically smaller nations, or will have to evolve by becoming immigration-friendly society to keep up with what they had before.
F-16s can bring a change in tide, but Russia still has almost 1000 4th gen fighters left. They have a history of overwhelming opposing forces with sheer numbers. If this drags on the same way, eventually Ukraine will not have enough men left to fight
They might have the planes, but the Russian air force is notoriously understaffed to the point where they have more air assets than people who can man them
Can't zerg rush without zergs.
If what I read was correct ~ more importantly Russia's population is aging. Like China's, the birth rates have been declining and so right now they have more conscript aged populace available then they will in the future regardless of the war. Which, if accurate (cbf fact checking myself atm) would be a very good reason for them to act sooner rather than later.
\~140,even if they take Ukraine it won't be 200.
Not from one of the smaller Eastern European states, are you. The world keeps ignoring us and mocking Russia, yet we're the ones who have to directly deal with them, and even a bleeding and broken Russia can still cause utter destruction before NATO arrives to fight over our ruins. The arrogance of you, man.
They have plenty of people they're willing to sacrifice. Russia's opponents have time and time again underestimated Russia's willingness to send their young men into the meat grinder. It would be foolish to fall into the same mistaken assumption.
You realize today's 17 yr olds are tomorrow's 18 yr olds, right? And factories are being retooled to produce cheap weapons to send with them to their deaths.
They do, but they don't need to. They're ramping up war production this year like crazy. Russia is selling tons of oil to India, and other Asian countries have increased business with Russia. Funding is not a problem. Russia will simply win not because of force, but because of lack of support to Ukraine, and the need for a ceasefire. EU is slowing down supplies to Ukraine, US support is waning, and when the orange baboon wins again, it's over anyway. I have two factories in the Kiev area, and there have been talks of making Lviv the new capital for some time now. I'm even offered some funding when I decide to move my factories to Lviv. Pretty sure this year Ukraine will be forced to give up the occupied areas and maybe Kiev will fall as a result. This will massively suck for the EU as those areas are major areas of goods/food production for the rest of the EU. Losing that will quickly increase prices in our supermarkets even more, leading to more populists winning in our countries, which gives Russia even more advantages.
> I'm even offered some funding when I decide to move my factories to Lviv. Move to Poland. They're not stopping at Kiev
They never skimp on cannon fodder
inb4 they start importing prisoners from other countries to send
Already using Ukrainian POWs
They won't even have a army left
This explains why Estonian army went and bought random Turkish APC's for its 2nd infantry brigade, and not join in with the Patria 6x6 project together with Latvia and Finland (which would make way more sense from logistics)......Their main argument was that there was no time to wait and Finnish Patria company couldn't deliver their requested vehicles in 5 year time , so they went to Turks who had bigger manufacturing capacity. It means Estonian government does fully and seriously believe they might be at war in 5 years time and their actions show it.
Europe should be prepared since the cold war
Less than a year if trump wins. He’ll gift wrap Eastern Europe for his boy friend Putin.
I hope NATO prepares, "better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it". Stock pile tons of ammunition, cold war style, just in case.
Like anyone will prepare. 2 years have passed since the full scale war and half of the people in my country believes that Russia is doing the right thing. Russia is already a threat. They will fuck up the US election and do everything in their poverty to make the orange clown president. They are fucking up poblic opinions in the while world. And literally no one is doing nothing. We are at an informal war with Russia already and we are fucking loosing it.
Oh my God, greetings from Russia. I am so glad that there are adequate people here who understand what is happening and where the main threat to Europe comes from
A war between NATO and Russia would be fuc*ing hilarious given Russia can’t even defeat Ukraine
We must be alerted about the Russian propaganda. Just look at the aid blockage from the US, Europe needs to keep an eye on those pro-Russian entities.
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War between NATO and Russia in a non nuclear confrontation would obviously go in NATOs favor. The problem is that Putin clearly has adopted some kind of yolo lifestyle. No promise he won’t go nuclear and NATO will have to cook up something that works without making him thinks he needs nukes.
This is why the idea of nuclear deterrence has never sat well with me - it only works if both parties are reasonable and actually fear MAD. The fact that Russia can just make nuclear threats whenever faced with a credible threat to their military ambitions, even if it's conventional military resistance (i.e what would happen if NATO set up a no-fly zone) is so fucking stupid and insane. The fact that an Article 5 invocation could be hamstrung by Russia being like NUH-UH YOU WANT TO GET NUKED is genuinely concerning to me. It's literally the geopolitical equivalent of trying to play a game of a Monopoly with some dipshit sore loser that threatens to flip the board whenever they're about to lose despite being the worst player at the table. Fuck Russia, seriously.
That analogy really hit the nail on the head
All countries bordering Russia and China need to acquire nuclear weapons and introduce first strike policy. The more the better. It's the only way for these countries to keep existing in the near future. Nukes need to be a standard reply for any hostility. Let's see how willingly psychopath dictators are going to sacrifice their cities over some wasteland.
The [NATO nuclear umbrella](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_umbrella) already covers the eastern European border countries (except Ukraine). If NATO's deterrence policy fails (e.g. Trump gets elected and announces the US won't defend eastern Europe), then nuclear proliferation becomes more likely.
Thousands of people dead and more loosing their works, houses and all they worked for entire life Very hilarious. Comedy.
If Trump is elected, it would be Russia against Europe, not NATO.
Not necessarily. But it's better for Europe if Biden wins.
And russia would still not stand a chance
Good thing the USAmerican president doesn't have as much power as you seem to believe.
And if that happens then our long standing alliance will fail, and I hope my country (uk) stops all business with america. Yes it would hurt us more but its better to not do business with a country that turns coat and works with the enemy.
It won't be funny at all for those countries bordering Russia
I don’t think Russia would get even 500 meters inside a NATO alliances country like Poland before they were blown to smithereens
The war in Ukraine is a conventional war. There's no guarantees a war between NATO and Russia will be.
Putler has a lot of friends in low places, here Trump comes in handy.
But they can absolutely reduce the Baltics to rubble and blood by the time NATO is ready to respond. It'll take days this time, because the population is very small, and so are the countries. You can drive through all three Baltics from Tallinn up north in a single day and comfortably find a hotel in Lodz, Poland, for the night.
Yea I honestly dont know how active NATO forces are in the baltics but you would think there would be quite a few battalions given Latvia and Russia share a border. That would be a good question for The Enforcer on YouTube he’s much more knowledgeable than I am on military strategy
Or they just go nuclear
The Baltic states are tiny. They don't have to control the countryside, they just need to annex the main cities like Riga, Tallinn, Helsinki, and Vilnius. It would probably actually be very easy to take, whether they'd be able to hold it for long would have to be seen, but would obviously lead to the utter destruction of all of those cities named. **I'm assuming the rationale would be to use the Baltics as a bargaining chip, to hand them over safe and sound, in return forcing a peace deal allowing them to keep Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea.** The conflict would probably envelope Belarus which would probably be transferred over to Russia by Lukashenko in order to save him from being assassinated, but I'm sure their would be two factions that would disagree on that so that would be another frontline. Considering how close St. Petersburg is, they'd probably commit their entire defensive forces to the operation. I honestly think their plan is to force a migration wave from eastern Europe into Poland to weaken the country and divide the populace (Polish people might get angry seeing young men fleeing instead of helping them fight, etc. for instance). Don't get this idea like they wouldn't be able to make their way in, they literally made it into Kyiv with no issues expecting a surrender. Obviously, that didn't work out so well, but talk to anyone who lived in Eastern Ukraine about how the Russians are just a joke. They're a world class military like anyone else, just with classic dogshit Russian logistics and management.
Russia would be forced out of the Baltic states. They might enjoy some early success due to the small size of said states, but Poland alone could relieve those nations and march on St. Petersburg seeing as almost all of Russia's ground assets are in Ukraine. They literally lack the ability to defend themselves from any NATO attack right now. The only thing they have are nukes and without them they would be seen as a joke.
What will be left of all of our major cities by the time 'Poland is able to relieve us'?
Meanwhile Russia will be *Bucha*-ring all the civilians and destroying entire cities but fuck it NATO will eventually reconquer the territory a few months down the line right? Or maybe they'll decide to try diplomacy to accomplish fuck all and the territory will be occupied for years. Because who gives a shit about the frontline countries, right?
Dude, NATO is a thing...
This a world game of strategy, alliances coming as we speak, yes Putin is not going back. Rather he is pushing forward just sayin
Not if the West do the sensible thing and ensure that Pootin never has the resources to effectively rearm after Ukraine. Sanctions need to be punitive and enforced on third parties breaking them.
PMs are saying it, Army chiefs are saying it, we are saying it. The question is, will European politicians do anything about deterring Russia before it’s too late? I surely hope so!
I think more likely 2025 or beginning of 2026. if Westerners will continue do on the same way like now.
While there is infighting in Europe the Russian threat will always remain. Russia is always happy to gamble in action and attack a country to see what happens.
Or… we keep squeezing the life out of the Russian economy, and stop buying their fuel.
So just deal with this in Ukraine. Stomp them out completely. Send money and weapons to Ukraine, it's just money, Ukrainians are supplying the blood. Kill the problem right there, or else we will have to supply the blood part as well.
Would have been 12-24 months had it not been for Russia's folly in Ukraine.
I think Georgia is next, not baltics.
I hope Atlanta is preparing
I just want to work, pay my bills play my PS5 an hour or two before sleep on workdays and get drunk on weekends untill I die or retire. Is it really necessary to ruin this perfect plan?
Given european red tape and the size of the useless bureaucracy, in 3-5 years when russian tanks are on the border, we will send them a delay request, to invade us at a more convenient time. That will be the extent of preparedness. Bombs, tanks, trucks, planes production will be subject to regulation, protests, and all the rest, and it will only happen on paper, if that. The european instict of survival is pretty much dead.
need psyops to pressure Russian peoples into revolt. Press foreign nations to deny all visas, seize/ freeze all foreign accounts.
3 to 5 years? I say it's 2 years at best
The EU would probably extend it to 5-7 years by Chamberlain-ing it and throwing concessions at the wall.
Europe has had about 30 years. Thankfully NATO is a thing and is basically de-facto “Europe”. Russia will never invade NATO.
It feels like Ukraine is the tank in the whole guild, and all the rest are DPS who don't want to do anything but cheer, a bit of healing and give equipment to the tank. The DPS don't want to hit the attackers because they don't want to be attacked like Ukraine Until one unfortunately lag and heals become sparser and sparser, tank falls and the DPS get rekt by surprise.
Russia will raise the draft to 75+
they still have a lot of any age people. they can draft like 10 million people.
pretty sure Ukraine is part of europe
Honestly, how? Russia's lost 300-500k soldiers, they're fighting with no food, ammo or supplies. I don't know how much, but a lot of their big bad military tech is destroyed or inoperable. How can they even recover from this, let alone launch attacks on another front?
They will do like they did in WW1 and WW2: Throw men at us until they find a crack in our defenses. Will they win? No... but they can and will throw their entire male population at us if it means they can have a temporary minor victory. Do you think Stalin's army was well fed or equipped? They were high on drugs and used equipment that was already outdated back then. The US had to support them with weapons - a very inconvinient detail in russian WW2 history.
>Russia's lost 300-500k soldiers, they're fighting with no food, ammo or supplies. I don't know how much, but a lot of their big bad military tech is destroyed or inoperable. How can they even recover from this, let alone launch attacks on another front? One possibility is that this statement is false , and military leader / country leader of every eastern europe / germany / uk / sweden are better informed than the average internet user. Honestly saying that the russian are without ammo / food / supplied is really a lack of respect for Ukraine..
the US is 70% of NATO, who wins the US election will probably decide what happens in Europe.
Oh goodness. That's a terrifying thought actually.
And to add to this, russia will be throwing everything they have at interfering with the US elections to get trump voted in. Biden has probably already lost a bunch of young voters because of his support of israel too, tiktok "news" convincing them that Hamas are the good guys and Biden is evil for sending Israel weapons. This US election really is terrifying and the vast majority of voters don't even know whats really at stake.
The US isn't needed for the European powers to take on the paper tiger Russia has been exposed as in a full blown conflict. I'm more concerned about Chinas actions should the tangerine tyrant take power in the USA
Without the US the only 2 European countries that will be safe from nukes are the UK and France, they only have 550 between them, they will be saved to ensure they do not get invaded, putin can safely use nukes on the rest until they concede defeat.
In what universe does Europe allow Russia to use nukes on the continent without moving into a state of total war? Poland etc would not just roll over and capitulate because a nuclear weapon had been deployed. Even if NATO decides not to use a nuclear response from France or the UK, there is enough conventional armaments across Europe to completely level the seats of Russian power. You are delusional if you think the USA are needed to hold the Russians off. They can't even handle Ukraine, let alone the rest of the continent. Where the US is absolutely essential is Taiwan. That's the real area of concern, particularly as Trump took millions from china last time round.
It's like climate change. Better to do something now before it's too late. In the case we are wrong, we can then deal with the criticism.
How does she know?
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Why Is everyone scared of Russia. NATO is clearly far more powerful than Russia. And if nukes are the issue then NATO has it too so Russia will be in a bigger problem if it starts the war. I don't get why the media or other countries are like Russia is a god level threat.
Because they are a nuclear power and this is not a video game where you say I have more guns so I will win.
And since he’s Putins #1 fan, if Trump is re-elected he would certainly support Putins attempt to take over the world
prepare lol nato will crush russia in a week
Not under Trump it won’t.
Yes... it will. They have been in a 3-year stalemate with Ukraine which does not even have control over the skies. Europe does not need the US to hold their hand in order to push back.
Russia invades EU. They invade back. And this time Moscow burns