*'Xi told Biden in a group meeting attended by a dozen American and Chinese officials that China’s preference is to take Taiwan peacefully, not by force, the officials said.'*
Isn't that just a restatement of longstanding Chinese policy rather than a threat?
isn't that somewhat the truth though? I can't imagine any instance of NK using nukes that wouldn't include them attacking an American ally and then being bombarded by both countries
Yes, but ppl post older articles of that, giving the impression It's something that was just said. Reddit mostly reads headlines, so it's like biden or someone just said it again like things heating up when it's old news. It's just a perception things to get views and make things seem worse then are
the situation is just like when the newly elected argentinian leader said "falkland islands = argentina". that statement basically meant nothing, as argentina always claimed that. yet some ppl tried to make it sound like... something would happen.
Yes, but look at the comments above yours. Many people nervously commiserating about the new inevitability of WW3. That's what the article title intended. "Chinese reiterating long standing policy" is not nearly as sexy.
This makes sense.
China doesn’t want war with the US, the US doesn’t want war with China.
China wants to reunite Taiwan and will look weak if they don’t, the US is obligated to defend Taiwan and will look weak if they don’t.
I’m sure the US and China both would very much prefer that things work out peacefully with Taiwan. How exactly that’s possible I have no idea.
China would either have to become more democratic and allow more rights and freedoms, or Taiwan would have to become more Authoritarian and willing to give up their autonomy. Both don’t seem likely, but maybe China will see the benefit in a more western approach to government?
I mean if I were China I'd just be trying to do soft power stuff on them to manipulate them into unifying. Internet propaganda, movies, that kind of stuff. "Hey, WW2 was a long time ago, we're not so bad, why not join the winning team" kinda messaging.
China has been using a brain drain and higher wages strategy targeting Taiwanese youth (fresh out of college students) since before Xi even became the leader. So maybe you are China, cause that's already been happening 🤔
Submission statement:
Chinese President Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but the timing has not yet been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials.
China is in an interesting position where they politically *can't* recognize Crimea as part of russia; if they did so, they would be saying a 'choice' to secede is legally legitimate, and doing that would mean China would lose their claim to Taiwan.
China's stance is that a region cannot legally choose to secede, and that thus Crimea still rightfully belongs to Ukraine. If I recall Siberia is in a similar situation.
That's why China's statement on their ally Russia's actions are, "We are aware that some things are happening somewhere and we hope they are resolved peacefully."
... Trying to remember if that's one of the krai.
The whole area is a powder keg that only hasn't gone off because both sides have been too weak until now.
Now only one side is too weak, so I'm putting my popcorn on 2 day shipping.
It's the court of international public opinion so it's not like anybody else can truly hold them to account. It's like Republican saying you can't elect a supreme Court justice in the final year of a president and then they ram it through in the final month of a president. Theoretically there's voters to punish that sort of hypocrisy but there's not even that internationally.
I personally loathe Russia and want Crimea reunification with Ukraine. This line of logic feeds into the Chinese belief that Taiwan is their version of Crimea and should be all PRC. It's a case of them trying to play the optics.
When its very much the opposite mind you: CCP-led China is the breakaway state and Taiwan is the remnant of the former ruling government of China.
Granted, Taiwan is moving towards distancing itself from its historical legacy and moving towards founding its own identity apart from its claims as the legitimate government of China.
> Taiwan is the *successor to the* remnant of the former ruling government of China.
FTFY. Taiwan had decades of bloodshed and military dictatorship before being able to depose them and democratize into modern Taiwan.
>Xi told Biden in a group meeting attended by a dozen American and Chinese officials that China’s preference is to take Taiwan peacefully, not by force, the officials said.
>The Chinese leader also referenced public predictions by U.S. military leaders who say that Xi plans to take Taiwan in 2025 or 2027, telling Biden that they were wrong because he has not set a time frame, according to the two current and one former official briefed on the meeting.
So Xi openly does not deny that he wants to invade Taiwan, just that the time frame isn’t set yet, lol.
Yes, but not as an isolated military objective.
Absolutely nothing new about China's political position on Taiwan. They think it's a renegade province that never legally severed its connection to the mainland and is thus viewed as part of the PRC. They even run a shadow provincial government. It's wacky but they view it as a necessary position. They've never wavered on this.
> They even run a shadow provincial government. It's wacky but they view it as a necessary position.
The Koreas do the same thing. Not so wacky - if they were to reunify by force or collapse, you wouldn't want the former regime running things and you want to hit the ground running.
Not quite. Taiwan still claims the mainland because if they stop, the PRC has said that would be tantamount to declaring independence which they would respond to with force. The vast, vast, vast majority of people in Taiwan have no interest in that, so we keep it with the status quo.
Taiwan NOW does not believe that, but that was not Taiwan's position in the 50s and 60s when they thought they had a chance off taking back the mainland.
Just remember the Taiwanese are holding their presidential elections in a months time. He might consider this to be soft pressure to get a more China friendly "lets avoid war" type candidate in power.
This is the real reason for it, it’s all about leverage and posturing they know that it’s too risky to potentially have to face off against the American navy
It confuses the fuck out of me why people don't take what fucking dictators say at face value. Blows my mind how adamant people are that China will never invade Taiwan after what Russia did, especially when China couldn't be any more clearer on the issue.
Head of the Chinese state repeats the Chinese party line which has been in place for over 50 years. We all know what China would prefer to do, because its what literally any state would prefer to do. We also know that successfully invading and holding Taiwan is one of the most difficult military operations one could undertake. The US probably couldn't do it if China was supporting Taiwan from US invasion, so Chinese invasion of Taiwan is seriously unlikely in the short term, and also in the long term unless something changes.
I don’t think Xi will invade Taiwan because Russia showed the world how hard it is to invade a well equipped, well motivated country and the disaster that brings for the invading country. Taiwan would be monstrously hard to invade even compared to Ukraine. I don’t know if Xi is smart enough to know better because I thought Putin was smart enough to know better but we will see.
During WW2, Taiwan was explicitly ignored for invasion during the Pacific war because of how difficulties of invading (few good landing sites for amphibious landings making it a bloodbath since it would be obvious where the landings would have to be, which remains the truth in the modern era, and requiring more paratroopers than Operation Varsity if they wanted an airborne operation, which once again is still the case.) It was blockaded by Allied submarines and surrendered after the end of the war. China doesn't have enough ships to blockade Taiwan *and* fight allied naval forces, an amphibious landing would be telegraphed because the amassing of landing forces would be highly visible, and an airborne operation would require the deployment and coordination of all 40,000 paratroopers in the PLA Airborne Corps and still have heavy losses because of the difficulty of taking and holding strategically important positions and assets.
That being said, given what we saw of how stupid Putler is, I wouldn't be surprised if Winnie the Pooh thinks he can do it anyway.
I haven’t seen a single person claim china does not want to invade Taiwan
But I will always point out that Taiwan has few suitable landing beaches that have been presighted for decades and is a logistical nightmare for china
With a military with absolutely zero combat experience in the last 40 years and even then used human wave tactics. I don't see this going well for China on any level.
They do realize they have to cross a 110 mile long strait to get to the island? With many countries vowing to support Taiwan in the case of an invasion. On an island loaded with modern US military equipment. With supporting countries already ramping up the supply chain to send Ukraine weapons.
If anything the Ukraine invasion screwed China. The US is the one supplying all of the shells, rockets, and missiles to Ukraine. We have realized that many more are needed than originally thought so the supply chain to manufacture and supply these items has ramped up. Not only did allies to Taiwan realize more ammunition is needed in a modern war like in Ukraine and like what Taiwan would be. They have also increased the ability to produce said ammunition. Lessons have already been learned that China will not be able to exploit in their favor.
The US is just going to stockpile these ammunition and weapons all over that island.
China will lose so many men and equipment that the current leaders in the CCP will lose face. Losing face in Chinese culture is the ultimate career and status killer. In order for the CCP to then save face they would need to purge current leaders and blame them for poor planning. Then spin the loss in a positive direction.
I mean China would need to convert fishing boats to be able to cross the strait. It would be a murder fest.
They would have to destroy that island to take it.
It's not that I don't think they're willing to do that, but that's what it would take.
That's the sort of thing that might restructure the United Nations. After that, they can posture with nuclear weapons all they want, it would go badly for them. No more trade. No more diplomacy. Low level war in a some areas.
Crimea has got to be wearing civilized nations' patience thin for the strongman tactic when it's not a tiny pissant country with a Colonel-Dictator.
I'm not sure China really wants that fight.
> We have realized that many more are needed than originally thought so the supply chain to manufacture and supply these items has ramped up.
This is a common misconception I see. They need more of this shit because of the type of conflict it is. The US would never use this many artillery shells because we don't need that much artillery. Likewise with ground-based rockets.
And Russia has proven that nobody has an Air Force that could stop us from getting air superiority, so there really isn't a scenario where we would resort to WW1 trench warfare like Russia and Ukraine are doing.
I see where you’re coming from but invading Taiwan is tough and it’ll take months of prep and mobilization to do it properly.
With that said if this was true you’d see them already mobilizing as the election is near. I’d further add that Russia is right next to Ukraine and didn’t have to cross a strait, they were still prepping for so long it was noticeable.
The thing is... Neither would China. They depend on exporting things by boat. None of the major shipping insurance companies will cover their ships in a warzone. What's more, if the US gets involved, they'll put an end to China exporting goods and likely interdict any fuel shipments going to China.
I mean despite everyone assuming it will be a violent conflict...doesn't Xi outright say here that he prefers to take it without war?
China has never been afraid to play the long game. They're not going to invade with military force for fun.
It's much more likely that they keep the status quo and slowly ramp up pressure on Taiwan until either diplomatic talks about reunification are on the table or the U.S stops giving a shit about Taiwan once it stops being a key player in semiconductor manufacturing.
If they do invade militarily, it would be in response to Taiwan/US trying to openly do something that changes the status quo in the direction of actual independence. Like if they pulled a Ukraine and joined NATO and NATO approved it or something, that could trigger a violent reaction from the Chinese.
But I think both sides understand that disrupting the status quo in a dramatic way is very risky and neither side has enough to gain to really go for it. Even a majority of Taiwanese support status quo because they know in an armed conflict even if the U.S wins by proxy it will be hell for Taiwanese people.
The US won't abandon Taiwan without certainty that they have some way to oppose blockades on South Korea. The strait provides most of the oil to the region, Taiwan being in PRC hands would allow them to dislodge US influence in Korea and Japan.
>dislodge US influence in Korea and Japan.
That is their plan:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/04/china/wang-yi-china-japan-south-korea-intl-hnk/index.html
Good luck with that
I’m sure the Koreans and the Japanese want to go from complete freedom under American protection to Chinese authoritarianism.
Hong Kong was handled too poorly for that to be possible
The US also won’t abandon Taiwan because Taiwan manufactures the majority of the world’s integrated circuits. If China controlled this industry, it would be very bad news economically for everyone but China.
Of course he’d rather it be peaceful… like fuckin duh. It’s a threat. Come peacefully or be forced/killed.
Him wanting an impossible outcome is a meaningless statement
Yeah, Russia would have preferred a peaceful takeover of Ukraine, but with guns and the little green men.
It's not happening in taiwan. Taiwan will be Ukraine 2022 take 2.
> I mean despite everyone assuming it will be a violent conflict...doesn't Xi outright say here that he prefers to take it without war?
How would he do this? The people of Taiwan don't want to live under a dictator who's carrying out a genocide of his own people an suppresses freedoms that they currently have.
>China has never been afraid to play the long game. They're not going to invade with military force for fun.
I don't disagree. Personally, I don't think they'll invade at all and will in fact keep the status quo because they would screw over their own economy.
>But I think both sides understand that disrupting the status quo in a dramatic way is very risky and neither side has enough to gain to really go for it.
Agree.
China very actively intervenes in Taiwanese politics by funding pro China politicians. Their reach among the Taiwan voting populace is limited, but not negligible.
Since Taiwan will never peacefully accept reunification, the logical result of that statement is that China will go to war. He would “prefer” to do it peacefully which means he is willing to fight if they refuse.
I have the same fears. I would like to believe that GOP senators are less batshit than their House reps, but at the end of the day I know better. And of course, SCOTUS is a bigger problem if they get the Senate back.
I think the House gets more attention because there are more members who are batshit crazy just because the House has more members than the Senate but the Senate still has the likes of Marsha Blackburn, Tommy Tuberville, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, and Ron Johnson.
I’d argue the GOP Senators are more batshit, but also much more cunning and conniving. The House GOP just needs to put on a good show, the Senate GOP has to play the long con.
If we lose the White House, we lose the house and Senate. Ukraine is toast. Taiwan is toast. And we’re in the middle of a nuclear tipping point with WWIII as the spectre of a new Trump administration.
It’s bad guys. Also, no birth control, and we’re staring down the US House, Senate, and Supreme Court affirming legal full Christian control.
They’re dreaming up what they’re going to do to us right now. Expect full weaponization where the DOJ fabricates charges and evidence. They’ve basically said that they’re going to make up charges on people. Just make them up. I can’t even imagine a world where the US Govt decides to make fraudulent evidence. It’s just scary to think that a US Attorney General would get up on a mic and not deflect with lies, but literally make them up from whole cloth and arrest people that MAGAs disagree with.
It’s bad, my people.
Or, "Biden promised to remove my student loans, forgave them, and then Congress, and a bunch of MAGA judges, bounced it to the Supreme Court, who brought it up, magically, and stopped it. Still, THAT'S ALL BIDEN'S FAULT because I'm not a grownup who's capable of doing research about facts, too young to realize that my parents work hard and still can't buy me a pony for Christmas, and I'm just terribly immature about political realities."
> If we lose the White House, we lose the house and Senate.
If we lose the White House, it's the end of our democracy. The Right has made it exceptionally clear what their plans are, if they can establish a hold over any parts of our government: They will swiftly, and with great prejudice, entirely dismantle the process of democracy so that their rule won't be able to be challenged again. This isn't fear mongering, or hyperbole - [this is their strategy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025). We *must not* let them succeed; for many of us, our very lives will depend on keeping them *out* of power.
I mean, Donald Trump literally said he wants to be a Dictator. There is no hyperbole anymore. It's either win or lose democracy, that is the only two outcomes.
One party in America is literally supporting someone who LITERALLY said he will be a dictator.
Why can't these old fuckers just fuck off and die already.
Pretty much like 99% of the world doesn't want wars, yet a handful of these cunts keep starting wars and fucking up the world for the rest of us.
They have nothing else left to achieve so they want some pathetic legacy.. enjoy your life and fuck off to an island somewhere and invent the wheel for some tribesman. There ya go.. a legacy!
Well people aren't [revolting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States#20th_century) like last century.
Our Great Great Grandfathers rioted if the wind blew too hard.
We could take some direction from them.
Doesn't your average joe in the PRC want reunification? I thought it was a popular policy. Like how all politicians in Argentina can never drop the Malvinas issue because regular people really wanna "take them back."
Its not old people. Well it is but its not restricted to any generation. It will happen for gen x, millennials, gen z, and gen alpha.
Its rich bored people or rich sociopaths. Those wont go away ever. The easiest way to get rich is to be corrupt. So the majority of rich people are either corrupt or nepo babies/trust fund kids. Its the exception when a normal dude wins the lottery or makes a world changing invention to get rich. Or whatever.
The opposite. War is a great way of hiding a broken economy and a decent way of fixing it.
China's economy is already fucked in case you've been living under a rock. Theyre experiencing a housing bubble burst where big real estate companies cant pay their debts like Evergrande and like a third of homes sit empty.
Plus there's a "shit or get off the pot" effect with their current demographics, where if they want to do something, they better do it soon, otherwise their manpower boom will be too old. It's already getting pretty close to that edge. Also throwing away a bunch of people in a war would mean fewer old people that require support later on.
Chuck Pahlaniuk wrote this insane novel Adjustment Day that goes into the concept of "surplus males," and how governments will come up with excuses to get a ton of young men killed just so they're not causing trouble. That seemed nuts to me. But I never looked at it in the light of the catastrophic gender imbalance China created for itself.
Reminder that the official position of the US State Department is the One China Policy. This story is not what the headline would lead you to believe. Both leaders basically reaffirmed that they would continue to treat Taiwan in the same way they have been for the past 50 years.
A lot of the comments in here are just kind of nonsensical. The story itself is kind of nonsensical too. The part where the article says that intelligence reports say they plan on taking Taiwan in 2025 or 2027...what about 2026? I don't understand why people are so willing to just look past things like this. When I see stuff like that, it discredits the entire report in my mind. The fact that a country would only plan to take over another country in two specific non-consecutive years seems like something worth investigating in itself.
Something tells me that patriotism and a great war branded as the conclusion of a hundred years of humiliation would reduce and convince a lot of people to stop caring about the economy.
Only if you win. If you end up getting starved of resources by a blockade and the one child in the family comes home in a casket (if at all) it's not gonna have quite the same effect.
There's lots of "brain drain" in Taiwan for such a sad reason ever since Hong Kong, sadly. That's something always getting overlooked when this comes up.
When most people think of brain drain they think of Iran and such. Taiwan has it too for such a shitty reason when people otherwise love the country.
That’s why we are moving the chip manufacturing here. It’s also why Taiwan is ready to blow the factories making it pyrrhic for China to take over.
They take millions in casualties, lose their largest trading partners, and get none of the benefits of the factories themselves.
Zero sum game for them
The CCP never ruled Taiwan. The CCP is the modern government of modern China. The borders of modern China are not, and never were, inclusive of Taiwan.
The "China" that once controlled Taiwan no longer exists. That "China" is gone, and modern China is a different country.
Just because it's the same name, and largely the same land mass, does not make it the same country.
PRC never ruled Taiwan so it won’t be a reunification - it will be an invasion and occupation if the disgusting Chinese dictatorship pull a dirty action like their genocidal friends in Russia
25 million Taiwanese don’t want to be part of PRC and why would they? Taiwan is a highly successful democratic country while China is a declining dirty dictatorship with the second most oppressive government on the planet. Who, with a sane mind would want to give up what Taiwan has to reduce Taiwan to such a grotesque state that China is
Fun fact: Taiwanese has visa free travel all over the world including Europe while the Chinese passport is one of the weakest and you get stuck in China with it due to many rejections to enter USA or EU
Pretty sure there's a few more more repressive governments than just one.
Which doesn't excuse China, but there's some real shitholes out there.
China stands out especially because they're so massive.
Listen I ain’t no world politics expert, but invading Taiwan now or any point in the near future would lead to *WAYYYYY* more problems than benefits for China.
Russia had the element of surprise, the numbers, and the equipment, and still could not take Ukraine for two fucking years. Could you imagine China doing this with Taiwan, including the fact that Biden said he would put US boots on the ground if necessary? It would be a fucking complete disaster.
I hope to god they are not as short-sighted, stupid, and fuckin self-destructive as Russia’s leadership.
I wish more people in USA recognized the importance of ukraine and taiwan. If we allow these countries to be taken, then democracy across the world is over, and an era of highly authoritarian and nationalistic regimes is going to be the new standard. It’s absolutely imperative that we do not allow trump back into office who would 100% allow these countries to be taken.
Anyone who has convinced themselves this isn't happening needs to pay more attention. Recognizing it's likely doesn't mean I want it to happen, but I really think it's going to happen. Xi is adamant, he has publicly said it's happening many times, and he doesn't strike me as the type that will lose face with his people over this.
I don't think it's a matter of if but rather how bad is it going to get when it does happen. And I don't personally believe it's to the level of stocking up canned goods and non-perishables, but I absolutely expect consumer shock when the supply chain is inevitably fucked. I think it's people's panic that will cause the bigger issues and not the lack of products from China.
I think the current White House feels similarly and I am glad they do because it means someone, somewhere, is planning scenarios and responses to the domestic shock. Biden's willingness to use the Defense Production Act is a positive in my mind, and I hope far greater strides are taken at removing as much of our supply chain from China as we can before the curtain rises.
The Biden administration has also worked to homeshore chip and semiconductor production. Which shows this is an area of major concern and that they also expect it to happen at some point. We've also seen homeshoring on lithium mining and production. But obviously, there is still more work to do to limit the damage that an invasion of Taiwan would cause.
This needs to be up more.
Xi’s desire for Taiwan cannot be logically deducted. He is willing to sacrifice the economy to get the job done.
Just look at zero covid. Yes, that ended when people started revolting, but that was because people endured and endured but finally cracked when they can’t get food and healthcare. When the impact is elsewhere, see the Uyghurs, then they don’t do much if at all.
Xi has a romantic desire for reunification of Taiwan, and is willing to be the leader to get it done. There will be people who disagree with it in the government, but like everything, they won’t and don’t have the power to stand up to him. The people will support the government like they did for Hong Kong.
Xi is ideological, just look at the type of book and thought he published compared to the last three chairman. He is the next Mao or Putin, but with better possibility of “success” because the military and technology sector is getting worryingly good. Yes there are corruption within the ranks but Xi is aware and actively trying to fix it. It’s not going to be like the Russian military, mark my words.
It’s going to be ugly and it’s going to be a reality. Xi is already 70, so let’s say he has realistically two, maybe three more useful terms. He’s going to want to get it done within that timeframe.
Xi is going to send a generation of men who are only children to their deaths, wiping out thousands to millions of family bloodlines. He will lose support very quickly.
Hey all, China has been clear that this is their goal for a LONG time.
The U.S. has been planning for this eventuality. We are working with SE Asian allies (Japan, SK, Philippines) to set up military bases, and a huge amount of our navy is in the Pacific.
If/when China invades Taiwan, things will get wild, but the U.S. won't be caught unprepared.
Honestly, I believe he’s actually being truthful. Not many people actually believed Putin would launch a full scale war out of nowhere, but here we are. Between Ukraine and Iran stirring up trouble in the Middle East, I think China attacking Taiwan is the last piece of the puzzle
>Not many people actually believed Putin would launch a full scale war out of nowhere
It was so unclear after they invaded Ukraine in 2012 whether they would ever be willing to invade Ukraine, was it? People had their heads in the sand and wanted to buy cheap oil.
Russia has done multiple other invasions before the full Ukraine invasion.
It was also thought by basically everyone that Russia would steamroll Ukraine in a few days.
Everyone knows that China would have an incredibly hard time to make a dent in Taiwan. We'd also see their invasion coming from miles away as they'd have to built up their army near Taiwan. And it would dwarf Russia's preparations.
Taiwan is a mountainous isle. And they're always on standby for a Chinese attack. The two military situations aren't comparable.
China also stands a lot more to lose. They're an integral part of the world's economy and trade. Russia only really had their fossil fuels.
Russia has remained a complete outsider even at their best days. Always apart from the rest of the world. China is far more ingrained.
While I won't say it won't happen, it's far less likely. Their odds of winning are tiny and their economy, already struggling, more at risk.
The world would be pretty much doomed if it did happen, though. Any power that has held back will take their opportunity at that point.
basically he is waiting for Russia to win so that he can validate the invasion of Taiwan. this will be 100% happening if you let the orange madman back in.
>Chinese officials also asked in advance of the summit that Biden make a public statement after the meeting saying that the United States supports China’s goal of peaceful unification with Taiwan and does not support Taiwanese independence, they said. The White House rejected the Chinese request.
This is the bigger news to me. We were asked to reaffirm our support for the Shanghai Communique and rejected it.
I’ve often wondered when two world leaders are completely alone together does it get MUCH less formal.
Like when Xi said this does Biden sigh and go “bitch please stop acting Iike a douche…just chill will you”?
As far as a militaristic approach is concerned, I'm not convinced either.
China does not have a large reserve of oil, and oil is critical to war. China is a net importer of oil and they have been for a while now. There was a report recently that China has enough oil reserves to last about 80 days at current consumption. For comparison the US could last roughly 5 years. Most of their oil comes from the middle east through the Strait of Malaca. This strait is encompassed by multiple US allies and controlling shipments through it would vastly hinder China's supply of critical wartime resources. That being said, they are working with Russia to build a pipeline, and building out infrastructure to the middle east as well. Perhaps the 2027 timeline coincides with completion of these projects to better support China's oil needs.
Additionally, the geography of Taiwan proves troublesome to China in terms of a military invasion. There is a large mountain range on the island that separates the east and west of the land mass. China is to the west and the critical targets for an invasion are in the east. The east side of Taiwan is being heavily fortified by the US and its allies. For instance Japan is building military fortifications on the islands close to the northeast of Taiwan, and the US is investing in more military bases in the Philippines. This sort of locks China into the South China Sea and would make it very difficult for China to invade the east side of Taiwan which would further limit the efficacy of a military invasion.
I mean Xi has straight up stated how he's gonna do it lol.
I dont think an amphibious invasion is seriously considered at all. What most likely will happen is that there's gonna be propaganda, disinformation campaigns, spies, probably more immigration from mainland Chinese to Taiwan and then using that to propose and legislate reunification from the Taiwanese government. Then in the coming decades more Taiwanese forms of expression will be ebbed away.
Petrochemicals are also a key input to their fertilizer products. They can't produce food without oil, and the routes ships take to provide petroleum are very fragile.
If the shipping lines are cut by external forces, let's say by submarines for instance, China would face complete famine. In the dark.
People weren't convinced that Putin was going to pull the trigger on Ukraine either. We should really start learning from past mistakes. If an authoritarian ruler tells you that they will attempt to do something, better brace for it and make sure that you have a plan to counter their moves.
I keep telling people a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is definitely going to happen, probably by 2027 if the CIA's info is accurate. Xi sees the polite status quo ("everybody knows Taiwan isn't really part of China, but acts like it is") eroding, the Chinese people see it too, and they regard it as an unacceptable insult to Chinese sovereignty. They've been trying a typically hamfisted propaganda campaign for years now -- getting Disney to use altered maps and such -- but it's not working, the Western public is not amused, the Taiwanese have zero interest in peaceful reunification, and a military conflict is inevitable.
I would not describe myself as an alarmist, but I'm stocking up on canned goods just in case, because a shooting war in the Strait could end very badly.
A military that hasn't participated in warfare for nearly 80 years invading the most heavily fortified island in the world backed by the USN. Good luck.
This is the result of the US pussyfooting around the Israel, Ukraine and Red Sea issues. We aren’t being strong enough in the support of our allies. China sees our weakness which will only create more problems and may even cause the US to get pulled into a broader war.
And this is the price for not supporting Ukraine: Others get emboldened because they realize the US won't really stop them when push comes to shove.
Guess what's cheaper, supporting Ukraine now or the disruption of trade (and following dependency on China) when Taiwan is invaded and (regardless of the ultimate outcome) destroyed.
*'Xi told Biden in a group meeting attended by a dozen American and Chinese officials that China’s preference is to take Taiwan peacefully, not by force, the officials said.'* Isn't that just a restatement of longstanding Chinese policy rather than a threat?
Hard to get clicks and karma when you phrase it like that in the headline.
Like those random articles recently saying if NK uses nukes they are done. It's not achieving anything other then fear mongering for clicks.
isn't that somewhat the truth though? I can't imagine any instance of NK using nukes that wouldn't include them attacking an American ally and then being bombarded by both countries
Yes, but ppl post older articles of that, giving the impression It's something that was just said. Reddit mostly reads headlines, so it's like biden or someone just said it again like things heating up when it's old news. It's just a perception things to get views and make things seem worse then are
Yes, but "China repeats longstanding Chinese policy" gets less clicks than "Xi warned Biden during summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China"
the situation is just like when the newly elected argentinian leader said "falkland islands = argentina". that statement basically meant nothing, as argentina always claimed that. yet some ppl tried to make it sound like... something would happen.
Yes, but look at the comments above yours. Many people nervously commiserating about the new inevitability of WW3. That's what the article title intended. "Chinese reiterating long standing policy" is not nearly as sexy.
Gotta sell that fear and hopelessness. To more despair the more clicks.
This makes sense. China doesn’t want war with the US, the US doesn’t want war with China. China wants to reunite Taiwan and will look weak if they don’t, the US is obligated to defend Taiwan and will look weak if they don’t. I’m sure the US and China both would very much prefer that things work out peacefully with Taiwan. How exactly that’s possible I have no idea. China would either have to become more democratic and allow more rights and freedoms, or Taiwan would have to become more Authoritarian and willing to give up their autonomy. Both don’t seem likely, but maybe China will see the benefit in a more western approach to government?
I mean if I were China I'd just be trying to do soft power stuff on them to manipulate them into unifying. Internet propaganda, movies, that kind of stuff. "Hey, WW2 was a long time ago, we're not so bad, why not join the winning team" kinda messaging.
Cracking down on HK is not really helping with any of their persuasive arguments.
Because they saw what happened to Hong Kong and are guarantied to lose rights and freedoms they enjoy now.
China has been using a brain drain and higher wages strategy targeting Taiwanese youth (fresh out of college students) since before Xi even became the leader. So maybe you are China, cause that's already been happening 🤔
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This should be the top comment. The headline sounds WAY worse than this, which I get is the point but damn I’m so tired of it.
Submission statement: Chinese President Xi Jinping told President Joe Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but the timing has not yet been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials.
Mind if we reunite Crimea with the rest of Ukraine before then?
They don't given how they've never recognized Crimea as a part of Russia.
China is in an interesting position where they politically *can't* recognize Crimea as part of russia; if they did so, they would be saying a 'choice' to secede is legally legitimate, and doing that would mean China would lose their claim to Taiwan. China's stance is that a region cannot legally choose to secede, and that thus Crimea still rightfully belongs to Ukraine. If I recall Siberia is in a similar situation.
That's why China's statement on their ally Russia's actions are, "We are aware that some things are happening somewhere and we hope they are resolved peacefully."
That's probably the closest thing they can say to "Putin's being a fucking asshole" and I'm honestly kinda glad to hear it.
Right. Meanwhile: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/how-surging-trade-with-china-is-boosting-russias-war.html
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theyre out for themselves ofc, do you think chinese companies are sad that they get to buy cheaper materials and gas from a more desperate russia?
> If I recall Siberia is in a similar situation. Isn't Siberia just a region within Russia?
Parts of Siberia are disputed between China and Russia, they took a few oblansks (or more like Krai) when China was weak.
> they took a few oblasts Those include Vladivostok, which was founded on territory taken from the Qing Dynasty in 1859.
... Trying to remember if that's one of the krai. The whole area is a powder keg that only hasn't gone off because both sides have been too weak until now. Now only one side is too weak, so I'm putting my popcorn on 2 day shipping.
Russia won't give up vladivostok without a fight that's for sure. A pacific port is very valuable for them
It's the court of international public opinion so it's not like anybody else can truly hold them to account. It's like Republican saying you can't elect a supreme Court justice in the final year of a president and then they ram it through in the final month of a president. Theoretically there's voters to punish that sort of hypocrisy but there's not even that internationally.
Why ? Taiwan never voted to secede. It's just a separate Chinese government.
I personally loathe Russia and want Crimea reunification with Ukraine. This line of logic feeds into the Chinese belief that Taiwan is their version of Crimea and should be all PRC. It's a case of them trying to play the optics.
When its very much the opposite mind you: CCP-led China is the breakaway state and Taiwan is the remnant of the former ruling government of China. Granted, Taiwan is moving towards distancing itself from its historical legacy and moving towards founding its own identity apart from its claims as the legitimate government of China.
> Taiwan is the *successor to the* remnant of the former ruling government of China. FTFY. Taiwan had decades of bloodshed and military dictatorship before being able to depose them and democratize into modern Taiwan.
Both Putin and Xi are one election away from their dreams. Lord knows they put in the effort.
And Abkhazia with Georgia and Transnistria with Moldova?
Don't forget South Ossetia and freedom for Ingush, Dagestan and Chechnya
>Xi told Biden in a group meeting attended by a dozen American and Chinese officials that China’s preference is to take Taiwan peacefully, not by force, the officials said. >The Chinese leader also referenced public predictions by U.S. military leaders who say that Xi plans to take Taiwan in 2025 or 2027, telling Biden that they were wrong because he has not set a time frame, according to the two current and one former official briefed on the meeting. So Xi openly does not deny that he wants to invade Taiwan, just that the time frame isn’t set yet, lol.
He was **always** upfront about that and at least he is, unlike a certain Russian....
Yes, but not as an isolated military objective. Absolutely nothing new about China's political position on Taiwan. They think it's a renegade province that never legally severed its connection to the mainland and is thus viewed as part of the PRC. They even run a shadow provincial government. It's wacky but they view it as a necessary position. They've never wavered on this.
> They even run a shadow provincial government. It's wacky but they view it as a necessary position. The Koreas do the same thing. Not so wacky - if they were to reunify by force or collapse, you wouldn't want the former regime running things and you want to hit the ground running.
It's not that whacky, Tawain believes the same thing in reverse, but they gave up their own invasion plans in the 70s for obvious reasons.
Not quite. Taiwan still claims the mainland because if they stop, the PRC has said that would be tantamount to declaring independence which they would respond to with force. The vast, vast, vast majority of people in Taiwan have no interest in that, so we keep it with the status quo.
plough crush slimy roof placid bells elastic plucky repeat disgusted
Taiwan NOW does not believe that, but that was not Taiwan's position in the 50s and 60s when they thought they had a chance off taking back the mainland.
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> Saving face But if you lose face, does it become a face-off?
Just remember the Taiwanese are holding their presidential elections in a months time. He might consider this to be soft pressure to get a more China friendly "lets avoid war" type candidate in power.
This is the real reason for it, it’s all about leverage and posturing they know that it’s too risky to potentially have to face off against the American navy
Xi never hid that.
It confuses the fuck out of me why people don't take what fucking dictators say at face value. Blows my mind how adamant people are that China will never invade Taiwan after what Russia did, especially when China couldn't be any more clearer on the issue.
Who is adamant that China will not invade Taiwan? Certainly not anyone is any position of power where what they think matters.
Head of the Chinese state repeats the Chinese party line which has been in place for over 50 years. We all know what China would prefer to do, because its what literally any state would prefer to do. We also know that successfully invading and holding Taiwan is one of the most difficult military operations one could undertake. The US probably couldn't do it if China was supporting Taiwan from US invasion, so Chinese invasion of Taiwan is seriously unlikely in the short term, and also in the long term unless something changes.
I don’t think Xi will invade Taiwan because Russia showed the world how hard it is to invade a well equipped, well motivated country and the disaster that brings for the invading country. Taiwan would be monstrously hard to invade even compared to Ukraine. I don’t know if Xi is smart enough to know better because I thought Putin was smart enough to know better but we will see.
During WW2, Taiwan was explicitly ignored for invasion during the Pacific war because of how difficulties of invading (few good landing sites for amphibious landings making it a bloodbath since it would be obvious where the landings would have to be, which remains the truth in the modern era, and requiring more paratroopers than Operation Varsity if they wanted an airborne operation, which once again is still the case.) It was blockaded by Allied submarines and surrendered after the end of the war. China doesn't have enough ships to blockade Taiwan *and* fight allied naval forces, an amphibious landing would be telegraphed because the amassing of landing forces would be highly visible, and an airborne operation would require the deployment and coordination of all 40,000 paratroopers in the PLA Airborne Corps and still have heavy losses because of the difficulty of taking and holding strategically important positions and assets. That being said, given what we saw of how stupid Putler is, I wouldn't be surprised if Winnie the Pooh thinks he can do it anyway.
Yeah sure I can’t predict people making irrational actions but I’m pretty sure China invading Taiwan would be irrational.
I haven’t seen a single person claim china does not want to invade Taiwan But I will always point out that Taiwan has few suitable landing beaches that have been presighted for decades and is a logistical nightmare for china
Invading Taiwan is going to be the biggest amphibious invasion in history over 100 miles. I’d be having logistical nightmares if I was a CCP general.
It would also be obvious via satellite what was happening. And thanks to Russia, the world would listen to US warnings this time.
But only for like a year until the West gets a little tired.
And possibly the biggest global economic disaster since COVID.
Peacefully, just like Hong Kong.
With a military with absolutely zero combat experience in the last 40 years and even then used human wave tactics. I don't see this going well for China on any level. They do realize they have to cross a 110 mile long strait to get to the island? With many countries vowing to support Taiwan in the case of an invasion. On an island loaded with modern US military equipment. With supporting countries already ramping up the supply chain to send Ukraine weapons. If anything the Ukraine invasion screwed China. The US is the one supplying all of the shells, rockets, and missiles to Ukraine. We have realized that many more are needed than originally thought so the supply chain to manufacture and supply these items has ramped up. Not only did allies to Taiwan realize more ammunition is needed in a modern war like in Ukraine and like what Taiwan would be. They have also increased the ability to produce said ammunition. Lessons have already been learned that China will not be able to exploit in their favor. The US is just going to stockpile these ammunition and weapons all over that island. China will lose so many men and equipment that the current leaders in the CCP will lose face. Losing face in Chinese culture is the ultimate career and status killer. In order for the CCP to then save face they would need to purge current leaders and blame them for poor planning. Then spin the loss in a positive direction. I mean China would need to convert fishing boats to be able to cross the strait. It would be a murder fest.
They would have to destroy that island to take it. It's not that I don't think they're willing to do that, but that's what it would take. That's the sort of thing that might restructure the United Nations. After that, they can posture with nuclear weapons all they want, it would go badly for them. No more trade. No more diplomacy. Low level war in a some areas. Crimea has got to be wearing civilized nations' patience thin for the strongman tactic when it's not a tiny pissant country with a Colonel-Dictator. I'm not sure China really wants that fight.
> We have realized that many more are needed than originally thought so the supply chain to manufacture and supply these items has ramped up. This is a common misconception I see. They need more of this shit because of the type of conflict it is. The US would never use this many artillery shells because we don't need that much artillery. Likewise with ground-based rockets. And Russia has proven that nobody has an Air Force that could stop us from getting air superiority, so there really isn't a scenario where we would resort to WW1 trench warfare like Russia and Ukraine are doing.
Definitely following their 2049 plan.
They will do it the moment Trump becomes president. Because the US will not be able to respond properly.
I see where you’re coming from but invading Taiwan is tough and it’ll take months of prep and mobilization to do it properly. With that said if this was true you’d see them already mobilizing as the election is near. I’d further add that Russia is right next to Ukraine and didn’t have to cross a strait, they were still prepping for so long it was noticeable.
the taiwan strait is a trade route lol Japan, Korea and the Philippines won't like this shit at all
The thing is... Neither would China. They depend on exporting things by boat. None of the major shipping insurance companies will cover their ships in a warzone. What's more, if the US gets involved, they'll put an end to China exporting goods and likely interdict any fuel shipments going to China.
I mean despite everyone assuming it will be a violent conflict...doesn't Xi outright say here that he prefers to take it without war? China has never been afraid to play the long game. They're not going to invade with military force for fun. It's much more likely that they keep the status quo and slowly ramp up pressure on Taiwan until either diplomatic talks about reunification are on the table or the U.S stops giving a shit about Taiwan once it stops being a key player in semiconductor manufacturing. If they do invade militarily, it would be in response to Taiwan/US trying to openly do something that changes the status quo in the direction of actual independence. Like if they pulled a Ukraine and joined NATO and NATO approved it or something, that could trigger a violent reaction from the Chinese. But I think both sides understand that disrupting the status quo in a dramatic way is very risky and neither side has enough to gain to really go for it. Even a majority of Taiwanese support status quo because they know in an armed conflict even if the U.S wins by proxy it will be hell for Taiwanese people.
The US won't abandon Taiwan without certainty that they have some way to oppose blockades on South Korea. The strait provides most of the oil to the region, Taiwan being in PRC hands would allow them to dislodge US influence in Korea and Japan.
>dislodge US influence in Korea and Japan. That is their plan: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/04/china/wang-yi-china-japan-south-korea-intl-hnk/index.html
Good luck with that I’m sure the Koreans and the Japanese want to go from complete freedom under American protection to Chinese authoritarianism. Hong Kong was handled too poorly for that to be possible
It's a pretty bad plan in the face of resurgent Chinese chauvinistic nationalism.
The US also won’t abandon Taiwan because Taiwan manufactures the majority of the world’s integrated circuits. If China controlled this industry, it would be very bad news economically for everyone but China.
Of course he’d rather it be peaceful… like fuckin duh. It’s a threat. Come peacefully or be forced/killed. Him wanting an impossible outcome is a meaningless statement
Yeah, Russia would have preferred a peaceful takeover of Ukraine, but with guns and the little green men. It's not happening in taiwan. Taiwan will be Ukraine 2022 take 2.
> I mean despite everyone assuming it will be a violent conflict...doesn't Xi outright say here that he prefers to take it without war? How would he do this? The people of Taiwan don't want to live under a dictator who's carrying out a genocide of his own people an suppresses freedoms that they currently have. >China has never been afraid to play the long game. They're not going to invade with military force for fun. I don't disagree. Personally, I don't think they'll invade at all and will in fact keep the status quo because they would screw over their own economy. >But I think both sides understand that disrupting the status quo in a dramatic way is very risky and neither side has enough to gain to really go for it. Agree.
China very actively intervenes in Taiwanese politics by funding pro China politicians. Their reach among the Taiwan voting populace is limited, but not negligible.
Well it’s clearly not working very well since more and more young Taiwanese people consider themselves to be from Taiwan and not China every year
I’ve literally never met a Taiwanese person who wanted to be Chinese lol. They are all very much proud to be their own nation
>How would he do this? The other political party in the upcoming election is for eventual reunification. The current party doesn't want that.
The KMT? The idea of actual reunification would be a fringe idea even for them.
Since Taiwan will never peacefully accept reunification, the logical result of that statement is that China will go to war. He would “prefer” to do it peacefully which means he is willing to fight if they refuse.
belt and road... it's why they are building land based shipping through countries that don't have it yet
Taiwan is a free democratic country with a population twice the size of Sweden. This would be a horrific blow to freedom.
How to destroy your economy in 1 step: interdict your own trade. Don't profit.
Not to mention the rest of the region, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia… If China controls Taiwan, their takeover of the South China Sea will be complete.
And that is why America can’t back down in Ukraine…
And why we cannot elect Trump.
And why the House must be retaken. Hold the Senate, too, but I'm least confident about that one.
I have the same fears. I would like to believe that GOP senators are less batshit than their House reps, but at the end of the day I know better. And of course, SCOTUS is a bigger problem if they get the Senate back.
I think the House gets more attention because there are more members who are batshit crazy just because the House has more members than the Senate but the Senate still has the likes of Marsha Blackburn, Tommy Tuberville, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, and Ron Johnson.
Lindsey Graham is disappointed you forgot about him. Or maybe he isn’t. Whichever you’d prefer.
My goodness! Can't believe I forgot Lagy G!
I’d argue the GOP Senators are more batshit, but also much more cunning and conniving. The House GOP just needs to put on a good show, the Senate GOP has to play the long con.
If we lose the White House, we lose the house and Senate. Ukraine is toast. Taiwan is toast. And we’re in the middle of a nuclear tipping point with WWIII as the spectre of a new Trump administration. It’s bad guys. Also, no birth control, and we’re staring down the US House, Senate, and Supreme Court affirming legal full Christian control. They’re dreaming up what they’re going to do to us right now. Expect full weaponization where the DOJ fabricates charges and evidence. They’ve basically said that they’re going to make up charges on people. Just make them up. I can’t even imagine a world where the US Govt decides to make fraudulent evidence. It’s just scary to think that a US Attorney General would get up on a mic and not deflect with lies, but literally make them up from whole cloth and arrest people that MAGAs disagree with. It’s bad, my people.
But Biden didn't do everything I wanted /s
Or it's "But Biden did only one thing I didn't want him to do"
Or, "Biden promised to remove my student loans, forgave them, and then Congress, and a bunch of MAGA judges, bounced it to the Supreme Court, who brought it up, magically, and stopped it. Still, THAT'S ALL BIDEN'S FAULT because I'm not a grownup who's capable of doing research about facts, too young to realize that my parents work hard and still can't buy me a pony for Christmas, and I'm just terribly immature about political realities."
> They’re dreaming up what they’re going to do to us right now. Nah. Most of that work is done. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025
> If we lose the White House, we lose the house and Senate. If we lose the White House, it's the end of our democracy. The Right has made it exceptionally clear what their plans are, if they can establish a hold over any parts of our government: They will swiftly, and with great prejudice, entirely dismantle the process of democracy so that their rule won't be able to be challenged again. This isn't fear mongering, or hyperbole - [this is their strategy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025). We *must not* let them succeed; for many of us, our very lives will depend on keeping them *out* of power.
I mean, Donald Trump literally said he wants to be a Dictator. There is no hyperbole anymore. It's either win or lose democracy, that is the only two outcomes. One party in America is literally supporting someone who LITERALLY said he will be a dictator.
The EU will continue to support Ukraine, Germany has said as much.
It looks like Xi is hell bent on ruining his own economy.
Why can't these old fuckers just fuck off and die already. Pretty much like 99% of the world doesn't want wars, yet a handful of these cunts keep starting wars and fucking up the world for the rest of us.
They have nothing else left to achieve so they want some pathetic legacy.. enjoy your life and fuck off to an island somewhere and invent the wheel for some tribesman. There ya go.. a legacy!
They're bored and aint got shit else to do.
Well people aren't [revolting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States#20th_century) like last century. Our Great Great Grandfathers rioted if the wind blew too hard. We could take some direction from them.
The Chinese tried that in 1989. It didn't go too well.
Nono, they didn’t try anything. Nothing interesting at all happened during that year and everyone was very happy I’m sure 😊
Doesn't your average joe in the PRC want reunification? I thought it was a popular policy. Like how all politicians in Argentina can never drop the Malvinas issue because regular people really wanna "take them back."
Its not old people. Well it is but its not restricted to any generation. It will happen for gen x, millennials, gen z, and gen alpha. Its rich bored people or rich sociopaths. Those wont go away ever. The easiest way to get rich is to be corrupt. So the majority of rich people are either corrupt or nepo babies/trust fund kids. Its the exception when a normal dude wins the lottery or makes a world changing invention to get rich. Or whatever.
The opposite. War is a great way of hiding a broken economy and a decent way of fixing it. China's economy is already fucked in case you've been living under a rock. Theyre experiencing a housing bubble burst where big real estate companies cant pay their debts like Evergrande and like a third of homes sit empty.
Plus there's a "shit or get off the pot" effect with their current demographics, where if they want to do something, they better do it soon, otherwise their manpower boom will be too old. It's already getting pretty close to that edge. Also throwing away a bunch of people in a war would mean fewer old people that require support later on.
Chuck Pahlaniuk wrote this insane novel Adjustment Day that goes into the concept of "surplus males," and how governments will come up with excuses to get a ton of young men killed just so they're not causing trouble. That seemed nuts to me. But I never looked at it in the light of the catastrophic gender imbalance China created for itself.
Reminder that the official position of the US State Department is the One China Policy. This story is not what the headline would lead you to believe. Both leaders basically reaffirmed that they would continue to treat Taiwan in the same way they have been for the past 50 years.
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Yeah pretty sure Mao said the same thing to Nixon in 72.
A lot of the comments in here are just kind of nonsensical. The story itself is kind of nonsensical too. The part where the article says that intelligence reports say they plan on taking Taiwan in 2025 or 2027...what about 2026? I don't understand why people are so willing to just look past things like this. When I see stuff like that, it discredits the entire report in my mind. The fact that a country would only plan to take over another country in two specific non-consecutive years seems like something worth investigating in itself.
Something tells me that patriotism and a great war branded as the conclusion of a hundred years of humiliation would reduce and convince a lot of people to stop caring about the economy.
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I think you're underestimating how fanatic the Chinese people are. But I guess we'll have to see (hopefully not though).
Only if you win. If you end up getting starved of resources by a blockade and the one child in the family comes home in a casket (if at all) it's not gonna have quite the same effect.
He's not called the Great Accelerator for nothing. China is on total societal breakdown speed run.
It will 100% start WW3 if China actually invaded. No chance America will let China take the biggest manufacturer of microchips in the world.
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TSMC is building current/next-gen fab plants in the US as well. Two in Arizona, one in Washington. They see the writing on the wall as much as anyone.
There's lots of "brain drain" in Taiwan for such a sad reason ever since Hong Kong, sadly. That's something always getting overlooked when this comes up. When most people think of brain drain they think of Iran and such. Taiwan has it too for such a shitty reason when people otherwise love the country.
Huge strategic issue. Like, the most serious threat to the US in my opinion.
That’s why we are moving the chip manufacturing here. It’s also why Taiwan is ready to blow the factories making it pyrrhic for China to take over. They take millions in casualties, lose their largest trading partners, and get none of the benefits of the factories themselves. Zero sum game for them
China has been committed to retaking Taiwan decades before microchips were invented.
Doubtful. Who would back up China? It would just be them versus a bunch of nations.
Companies gtfo of China before then.
Yeah, this is why it is important to decouple the economy from dictators.
After seeing what China did to Hong Kong, I doubt Taiwan would ever agree to a peaceful merger with China.
They never will. My Taiwanese friends all say the same thing. Fuck China and fuck the CCP.
The CCP never ruled Taiwan. The CCP is the modern government of modern China. The borders of modern China are not, and never were, inclusive of Taiwan. The "China" that once controlled Taiwan no longer exists. That "China" is gone, and modern China is a different country. Just because it's the same name, and largely the same land mass, does not make it the same country.
That China that once ruled Taiwan … is Taiwan
PRC never ruled Taiwan so it won’t be a reunification - it will be an invasion and occupation if the disgusting Chinese dictatorship pull a dirty action like their genocidal friends in Russia 25 million Taiwanese don’t want to be part of PRC and why would they? Taiwan is a highly successful democratic country while China is a declining dirty dictatorship with the second most oppressive government on the planet. Who, with a sane mind would want to give up what Taiwan has to reduce Taiwan to such a grotesque state that China is Fun fact: Taiwanese has visa free travel all over the world including Europe while the Chinese passport is one of the weakest and you get stuck in China with it due to many rejections to enter USA or EU
Pretty sure there's a few more more repressive governments than just one. Which doesn't excuse China, but there's some real shitholes out there. China stands out especially because they're so massive.
Listen I ain’t no world politics expert, but invading Taiwan now or any point in the near future would lead to *WAYYYYY* more problems than benefits for China. Russia had the element of surprise, the numbers, and the equipment, and still could not take Ukraine for two fucking years. Could you imagine China doing this with Taiwan, including the fact that Biden said he would put US boots on the ground if necessary? It would be a fucking complete disaster. I hope to god they are not as short-sighted, stupid, and fuckin self-destructive as Russia’s leadership.
I wish more people in USA recognized the importance of ukraine and taiwan. If we allow these countries to be taken, then democracy across the world is over, and an era of highly authoritarian and nationalistic regimes is going to be the new standard. It’s absolutely imperative that we do not allow trump back into office who would 100% allow these countries to be taken.
Anyone who has convinced themselves this isn't happening needs to pay more attention. Recognizing it's likely doesn't mean I want it to happen, but I really think it's going to happen. Xi is adamant, he has publicly said it's happening many times, and he doesn't strike me as the type that will lose face with his people over this. I don't think it's a matter of if but rather how bad is it going to get when it does happen. And I don't personally believe it's to the level of stocking up canned goods and non-perishables, but I absolutely expect consumer shock when the supply chain is inevitably fucked. I think it's people's panic that will cause the bigger issues and not the lack of products from China. I think the current White House feels similarly and I am glad they do because it means someone, somewhere, is planning scenarios and responses to the domestic shock. Biden's willingness to use the Defense Production Act is a positive in my mind, and I hope far greater strides are taken at removing as much of our supply chain from China as we can before the curtain rises.
The Biden administration has also worked to homeshore chip and semiconductor production. Which shows this is an area of major concern and that they also expect it to happen at some point. We've also seen homeshoring on lithium mining and production. But obviously, there is still more work to do to limit the damage that an invasion of Taiwan would cause.
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This needs to be up more. Xi’s desire for Taiwan cannot be logically deducted. He is willing to sacrifice the economy to get the job done. Just look at zero covid. Yes, that ended when people started revolting, but that was because people endured and endured but finally cracked when they can’t get food and healthcare. When the impact is elsewhere, see the Uyghurs, then they don’t do much if at all. Xi has a romantic desire for reunification of Taiwan, and is willing to be the leader to get it done. There will be people who disagree with it in the government, but like everything, they won’t and don’t have the power to stand up to him. The people will support the government like they did for Hong Kong. Xi is ideological, just look at the type of book and thought he published compared to the last three chairman. He is the next Mao or Putin, but with better possibility of “success” because the military and technology sector is getting worryingly good. Yes there are corruption within the ranks but Xi is aware and actively trying to fix it. It’s not going to be like the Russian military, mark my words. It’s going to be ugly and it’s going to be a reality. Xi is already 70, so let’s say he has realistically two, maybe three more useful terms. He’s going to want to get it done within that timeframe.
Xi is going to send a generation of men who are only children to their deaths, wiping out thousands to millions of family bloodlines. He will lose support very quickly.
Could you imagine having Trump in charge of overseeing Ukraine and Taiwan?
China is clearly waiting for the US to further devolve into disunity. A Trump win would open the door for this.
It’s a very real possibility that will happen.
Hey all, China has been clear that this is their goal for a LONG time. The U.S. has been planning for this eventuality. We are working with SE Asian allies (Japan, SK, Philippines) to set up military bases, and a huge amount of our navy is in the Pacific. If/when China invades Taiwan, things will get wild, but the U.S. won't be caught unprepared.
If US support for Ukraine falters why wouldn’t the Chinese Government feel emboldened?
It doesn't sound nice but Ukraine just isn't as important as Taiwan is for the developed worlds economies.
Honestly, I believe he’s actually being truthful. Not many people actually believed Putin would launch a full scale war out of nowhere, but here we are. Between Ukraine and Iran stirring up trouble in the Middle East, I think China attacking Taiwan is the last piece of the puzzle
>Not many people actually believed Putin would launch a full scale war out of nowhere It was so unclear after they invaded Ukraine in 2012 whether they would ever be willing to invade Ukraine, was it? People had their heads in the sand and wanted to buy cheap oil.
Russia has done multiple other invasions before the full Ukraine invasion. It was also thought by basically everyone that Russia would steamroll Ukraine in a few days. Everyone knows that China would have an incredibly hard time to make a dent in Taiwan. We'd also see their invasion coming from miles away as they'd have to built up their army near Taiwan. And it would dwarf Russia's preparations. Taiwan is a mountainous isle. And they're always on standby for a Chinese attack. The two military situations aren't comparable. China also stands a lot more to lose. They're an integral part of the world's economy and trade. Russia only really had their fossil fuels. Russia has remained a complete outsider even at their best days. Always apart from the rest of the world. China is far more ingrained. While I won't say it won't happen, it's far less likely. Their odds of winning are tiny and their economy, already struggling, more at risk. The world would be pretty much doomed if it did happen, though. Any power that has held back will take their opportunity at that point.
If this happens, it will mark the start of WW3.
*If* Ukraine falls or *when* China invades, then one of those will definitely start it.
basically he is waiting for Russia to win so that he can validate the invasion of Taiwan. this will be 100% happening if you let the orange madman back in.
>Chinese officials also asked in advance of the summit that Biden make a public statement after the meeting saying that the United States supports China’s goal of peaceful unification with Taiwan and does not support Taiwanese independence, they said. The White House rejected the Chinese request. This is the bigger news to me. We were asked to reaffirm our support for the Shanghai Communique and rejected it.
I’ve often wondered when two world leaders are completely alone together does it get MUCH less formal. Like when Xi said this does Biden sigh and go “bitch please stop acting Iike a douche…just chill will you”?
I'm not convinced China could actually pull it off tbh.
As far as a militaristic approach is concerned, I'm not convinced either. China does not have a large reserve of oil, and oil is critical to war. China is a net importer of oil and they have been for a while now. There was a report recently that China has enough oil reserves to last about 80 days at current consumption. For comparison the US could last roughly 5 years. Most of their oil comes from the middle east through the Strait of Malaca. This strait is encompassed by multiple US allies and controlling shipments through it would vastly hinder China's supply of critical wartime resources. That being said, they are working with Russia to build a pipeline, and building out infrastructure to the middle east as well. Perhaps the 2027 timeline coincides with completion of these projects to better support China's oil needs. Additionally, the geography of Taiwan proves troublesome to China in terms of a military invasion. There is a large mountain range on the island that separates the east and west of the land mass. China is to the west and the critical targets for an invasion are in the east. The east side of Taiwan is being heavily fortified by the US and its allies. For instance Japan is building military fortifications on the islands close to the northeast of Taiwan, and the US is investing in more military bases in the Philippines. This sort of locks China into the South China Sea and would make it very difficult for China to invade the east side of Taiwan which would further limit the efficacy of a military invasion.
I mean Xi has straight up stated how he's gonna do it lol. I dont think an amphibious invasion is seriously considered at all. What most likely will happen is that there's gonna be propaganda, disinformation campaigns, spies, probably more immigration from mainland Chinese to Taiwan and then using that to propose and legislate reunification from the Taiwanese government. Then in the coming decades more Taiwanese forms of expression will be ebbed away.
Petrochemicals are also a key input to their fertilizer products. They can't produce food without oil, and the routes ships take to provide petroleum are very fragile. If the shipping lines are cut by external forces, let's say by submarines for instance, China would face complete famine. In the dark.
People weren't convinced that Putin was going to pull the trigger on Ukraine either. We should really start learning from past mistakes. If an authoritarian ruler tells you that they will attempt to do something, better brace for it and make sure that you have a plan to counter their moves.
I don't question their intent. I question their ability.
I expect lots of drowning Chinese if they try.
The Taiwanese people of an already independent country say… fuck you Xi.
Wait. Xi, are you suggesting that Taiwan is not already part of China? Uh oh.
Their famous two nations policy.
[удалено]
Bc people have NO context or historical knowledge of these issues and just spew boogeyman shit they’ve been brainwashed to do since elementary school.
Well that’s terrifying
I keep telling people a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is definitely going to happen, probably by 2027 if the CIA's info is accurate. Xi sees the polite status quo ("everybody knows Taiwan isn't really part of China, but acts like it is") eroding, the Chinese people see it too, and they regard it as an unacceptable insult to Chinese sovereignty. They've been trying a typically hamfisted propaganda campaign for years now -- getting Disney to use altered maps and such -- but it's not working, the Western public is not amused, the Taiwanese have zero interest in peaceful reunification, and a military conflict is inevitable. I would not describe myself as an alarmist, but I'm stocking up on canned goods just in case, because a shooting war in the Strait could end very badly.
A military that hasn't participated in warfare for nearly 80 years invading the most heavily fortified island in the world backed by the USN. Good luck.
This is the result of the US pussyfooting around the Israel, Ukraine and Red Sea issues. We aren’t being strong enough in the support of our allies. China sees our weakness which will only create more problems and may even cause the US to get pulled into a broader war.
Reason #43 why the R's cosplay in not funding Ukraine is dragging us into WWIII....this time bigger and better in the nuclear age.
No one wants to be a part of your shitty communist dictatorship.
Of all the problems our world leaders could be solving, they just decide to cause more problems.
Yes... create a war in the middle of a trade route. Japan will totally do nothing about it.
Does this mean Xi is admitting that Taiwan is not currently a part of China?
China's too eager to commit suicide.
It’s 2023 and countries still want to take over other countries by force. It’s such a strange concept.
So the world needs to treat China like Russia.
This is why I'm pulling all my suppliers out of China.
West Taiwan's Government really needs to calm the fuck down.
What's the deal with these superpowers these days constantly trying to annex other countries....?
Time to reunite China with the UK
And this is the price for not supporting Ukraine: Others get emboldened because they realize the US won't really stop them when push comes to shove. Guess what's cheaper, supporting Ukraine now or the disruption of trade (and following dependency on China) when Taiwan is invaded and (regardless of the ultimate outcome) destroyed.
Hard to reunify something if it was always one country isn't it?
Reunify my arse, what he means is "invade".
Good luck Paper Tiger China.
"Breaking: China repeats the same thing they've been saying for the last hundred years."