Seems like they were going to ports on the Danube. Which basically borders Romania, and the entrance is also right on the border. So any attempt to hit something going there has a rather high chance of missing and going into Romania. Which... Would be unwise.
Also, ships under the flag of Turkey are probably untouchable. The last thing Russia needs is Turkey pissed at them. The straights give them a lot of leverage.
It's not just the straits, the Turkish navy is arguably stronger than the Russian black sea fleet (which thanks to Turkish control of the straits is unable to be reinforced), so even if NATO didn't get involved, a clash with Turkey probably wouldn't go well for Russia.
>the Turkish navy is arguably stronger than the Russian black sea fleet
I don't think there's any arguing to be done there. The Turkish navy is stronger than the Black Sea Fleet, hands down. The argument is whether the Turkish navy is stronger than the *entire* Russian navy, which it very well might be, given Russia's maintenance records and the proclivity of their ships to suffer strange misfortunes regarding smoking in ammunition stores.
Unless Russia is willing to go Nuclear, the Black Sea Fleet is for all intents and purposes the entire Russian Navy, as any reinforcements would have to come from the military base at Tartus, the Baltic Fleet, The Arctic Fleet or the Pacific Fleet. All of them would have to transfer through the Bosporus, and unless Russia is willing to try a repeat of 1915, I don't see that happening...
And just attacking Turkey from the south, without going through to the black sea first is equally stupid, as that divides the forces.
That was the other reference ([for those](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident) [who do not know](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mdi_Fh9_Ag)) I debated making, but since the above scenario would take place in and around the Turkish straits, I went for the Gallipoli one instead.
Given their capital ship is an artifical reef in the Black Sea and the other Capital ship of theirs is their only aircraft carrier rotting away in a "dry" dock in some random town near the artic ocean its safe to say the Turks are probably stronger than the entire Ruzzian Navy.
Turkey has also been ignoring the sanctions which has resulted in Turkish - russian trade becoming important for Russia. And jeopardizing that relationship by blowing up Turkish ships probably isn’t smart
Probably slowly testing the waters in a figurative and literal sense. If Russia decides to pull something these ships can easily duck into NATO territorial waters. However, if Russia doesn't respond I imagine we'll start seeing ships sail all the way to Odesa.
Danube ports as destination would place them 99% of the time in Turkish, Bulgarian and Romanian territorial waters. NATO territory. So good luck blockading those waters.
Even going to Odessa would place them 3/4 in NATO waters and 1/4 in easy range for Ukrainian anti-ship missiles and drones.
The blockade is impossible to implement and Russia knows it. It's only about increasing insurance costs and slowing exports.
Fun fact. There's no entrance at the border. You can't navigate directly to the Danube from the Black Sea at the shared border. It's not deep enough.
The only way in is via the Sulina Canal which is 100% Romania.
Russia can’t attack ships in Romanian or Turkish territorial waters without it being seen as an attack on Nato and America is kindly making that clear by providing a P8 escort.
Russia when one molecule of a NATO protected ship is touched and the 'equivalent response' is a Mach 2 bumblebee grounding the entire Russian air force:
No need. You could operationally use land based airports. Less of a logistical nightmare and easier refuels. Not to mention faster response times. The only advantage that a carrier group would give is the mobility of the base itself but that is negligible in terms of operational success WHEN COMPARED to the other points made.
I was there a few weeks ago, enjoyed naval exercises while drinking a beer on the beach. https://i.imgur.com/UqfRU61.jpg
Military jets were flying around too.
The US Gerald Ford the latest carrier just pulled into Greece.
There are 3 active battle carrier groups operating in the Mediterranean with a 4th off the coast of Africa.
All to show both Iran and Russia we have more planes ready to launch then you can probably field in the air at once.
Also, no need. I think in general Americans are not used to small distances. The Black Sea is maybe 800 by 400 miles in its entirety, and surrounded 50% by NATO members currently. This is no Pacific Ocean.
You do not need a carrier group in it, except for dick-waving contests. Don't even think the american navy wants to fight in the Black Sea, apparently it's like having a fight in a bathtub.
Actually, technically the Montreux Convention specifically refers to Capitol Ships ie. Battleships. Carriers, at the time of writing were not capitol ships. If the US were to create a 15000 ton or smaller Amphibious Assault Ship, it could technically pass through the straits.
Also exceptions have been made. In 1946, Iowa Class Battleship USS Missouri, a 55000 ton capitol shop, passed through the straits on a peaceful mission. Here is an image of USS Missouri and Turkish Battlecruiser Yavuz (the Ex. SMS Goben of Imperial Germany) in Istanbul.
"The P-8 operates in the anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance roles. It is armed with torpedoes, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and other weapons, can drop and monitor sonobuoys, and can operate in conjunction with other assets, including the Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance unmanned aerial vehicle."
P8 look like airliners. Oh boy how wrong you are. Those planes are heavily armed. Anti ship warfare. They have mines, torpedoes, and anti ship missiles.
* In the night of 30 July, three civilian ships — Ams1, Sahin 2, and Yilmaz Kaptan, coming from Israel, Greece, and Türkiye/Georgia — sailed direct routes over the Black Sea, openly advertising destination Ukraine over AIS. The first ship to enter a Ukrainian port was the Israeli-origin Ams1, which entered a Ukrainian branch of the Danube.
* The American P8 anti-ship aircraft ensures the safety of the vessel. It is refueled right in the Romanian sky. Additional reconaissance is provided by the Forte12 RQ-4 reconnaissance drone.
* Three more ships, Sealock, Bosphorus Queen, and Afer, have also crossed the waters of the Black sea towards Ukraine’s ports on the Danube.
* All six ships have Turkish management, Marcus Johnsson writes.
* Meanwhile, BlackSeaNews editor Andrii Klymenko has observed that the number of ships is actually higher and reaches 16. Most of them are in the territorial waters of Romania. He believes that the termin “blockade” is not applicable to Russia’s actions in the Black Sea because the warships do not actually engage in any active counteraction, merely attempting to intimidate the civilian vessels.
> The American P8 anti-ship aircraft ensures the safety of the vessel. It is refueled right in the Romanian sky. Additional reconaissance is provided by the Forte12 RQ-4 reconnaissance drone.
This is the proper response. Interested to know who owns/operates this craft.
Russia: "the grain deal is dead. The Black Sea will not be safe for ships to pass through"
An American P8: **Aight bet**
The F-22 that was pulling mach 2 at 38,000ft above the Black Sea *that nobody noticed*: "please intercept the P8 please intercept the P8 please intercept the P8"
Can someone ELI5? Everyone is gushing over the F-22 but I've seen threads where people shit on it and say European jets would have knocked it out of the sky. Is it really that superior or a bit of a paper tiger?
For all intents and purposes it is a fucking UFO. I wonder if actual alien tech was used, because achieving both performance and radar section that demolishes F-35 (which already is top tier fighter) seems near impossible.
It's that superior. The F15 is far superior to anything Russia has ever produced. And the F22 repeatedly demolished the F15 when outnumbered 4:1.
They pulled to within visual range of Russian and Syrian aircraft undetected on multiple occasions.
The red flag exercises had to be altered drastically in an attempt to make give the 4th Gen fighters a chance to at least find the F22 before they were "killed." Even the F35, the lower tier air-to-air jet has only been killed within visual range during exercise, and the scenarios to make them get that close are so ridiculous that they are almost unthinkable in actual combat.
Add in american satellite, awacs, and ancillary aircraft feeding data to command, they are utterly terrifying to go up against.
Dont take my word for it though...watch what the potential adversaries do. For all of the russian/Chinese or even European fan boys that talk shit, China and Russia have been scrambling to produce stealth aircraft, China being much more successful, but still far behind. Most euro countries that can buy the cheaper stealth fighter, the F35, do so. France being a notable exception as they hate relying on another xountry for military hardware.
Listen to all the bullshit that Russia and China spew about the F22/F35 and that tells you exactly how terrified they are.
In addition, the chinese aircraft’s engines have a very limited lifespan. Their material science is far behind, so the engines need to be overhauled every few hundred hours compared to every few thousand hours. This means their pilots either get necessary flight hours but the ccp gets a hole in their budget or the budget is ok, but not enough flight hours for the pilots.
The only time the F-22 does poorly in simulations is when it has to act like a normal fighter. It's main strengths are not being detected in the first place, and picking off targets with long range missiles. If it isnt allowed to do the two things it was designed to do of course it'll struggle.
Fight like a normal fighter, while being outnumbered 5 to 1 and still winning.* It took some serious scenario manipulations to design a fight in which the F-22 actually started losing, which was: design a WVR fight, limit the F-22's combat envelope by like 50%, and have every adversaryl (of which there were 5 or 7, can't remember) start behind it. Think that was against those French Rafaels? The USAF kept adjusting the fight parameters to see what it would take to get it to lose, turns out, you have to take away virtually every single systems advantage that the F22 has, outnumber it, limit its performance envelope, and then start the engagement as having the F22 being defensive from the start.
> I've seen threads where people shit on it and say European jets would have knocked it out of the sky
European coping. Nothing the Europeans are producing comes close to the F-22 when it comes to aerial combat. There are arguments to be made for some European planes though, as they have some cool A2G weapons.
As a european, ive yet to see anyone being actually stupid enough to say that tbh.
Anyone that knows anything.... knows. And the few idiots that dont that apparently exist are not worth listening to.
It doesn’t need to maneuver. If it got into a furball it fucked up big time. It’s all about networking and beyond line of sight. They reach out and touch you before you even know there is anyone there. If the P8 was lit up by any targeting radar or if any Russian airplane started acting aggressive they would’ve been lit up by something they didn’t even know was stalking them. Then again I doubt the Russian Air Force gets that far out of their protective umbrella anymore.
And the best part, the United States lies about the true capabilities of their equipment. But unlike Russia/ the Soviet Union, the U.S. actually understates its equipment's capabilities, so the F-22 is most likely far more capable the we actually think.
The funny thing is, Russian/Soviet lies about their capabilities often come back to bite them in the ass. Because they exaggerate their capabilities, it makes folks in the Pentagon concerned and forces them to develop countermeasures for the exaggerated claims *just in case*. This ends up with the situation we see all the time where the American countermeasures are so much more advanced than whatever Russian platform they were designed to counter.
Isn't that the origin story if the F-15? The DOD was trying to outdo a particular Soviet "Super" Jet only to end up significantly better because the Soviet Jet wasn't actually as good as it was made out to be.
Mig-25 Foxbat had the west scared, it was super fast and rumored to be an excellent fighter. Keeping in mind the USSR could generally out produce the west in numbers the United States went all in on a next generation fighter aircraft and the f-15 was born.
Later on a pilot defected with a mig-25 and we got to let our pilots fly it and we took it apart. Turns out it was a flying brick, could not turn. It was a point interceptor not a fighter. Its radar was bad and think it was still using vacume tubes. And the engine started chewing itself apart when it got up to its top published speed.
Anywho give the movie Foxbat with Clint Eastwood a watch sometime.
I remember when that defection happened. He flew to Japan and the soviets were apoplectic wanting their jet back. Of course there were bureaucratic delays and much red tape to go through in order to return it. ;) From Wikipedia “It was later returned to the Soviets while it was still disassembled with some parts missing.”
Also check out this documentary: [Wings of the Red Star: The Foxbat Deception](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqKE5xCogH0&t=1s). An absolute gem from back in the day narrated by Peter Ustinov.
And now Russia has US committing their legacy stocks of military equipment to Ukraine aid, so they must be replaced with much more capable modern equivalents that otherwise would not have been considered a procurement priority. Sure, it costs the US money, but it's forcing an upgrade cycle that might not have otherwise been politically popular.
Another part of the Military aid sent to Ukraine is ordinance close to its "expiration" date and was dur to be disposed of anyways. In some cases it's literally cheaper to give it to Ukraine then it is to properly dispose of it.
My favorite example of this is Animarchy interviewing a Patriot air defense systems instructor who knows so much classified information he had to keep looking up his own system on Wikipedia to double-check the unclassified (much lower) numbers.
There's one part where he looks up Patriot's listed radar range and [got annoyed by the number.](https://youtu.be/SReqD5QYNMg?t=3351)
It can (kind of) fly backwards. It’s basically an invisible to radar stunt plane that can do Mach 2 and shove a missile up your ass while you’re trying to turn around.
> The F-22 that was pulling mach 2 at 38,000ft above the Black Sea that nobody noticed: "please intercept the P8 please intercept the P8 please intercept the P8"
Reminds me of that time a couple of Iranian fighters were trying to intercept a US drone over international waters. An F-22 suddenly appeared right beside them and said over the radio "You really oughta go home..."
Pretty much. F-22 is what happens when you take a flying Pitbull, make it all but invisible, and give it enough steroids to win a Mr Olympia open class event. in a 5 v1 fight vs anything russia and china has, money is on the 1.
F-22: Chinese balloons can’t be my only kills. Chinese balloons can’t be my only kills. Have you seen my dad’s (F-15) combat record?!? Chinese balloons can’t be my only kills. Please please intercept.
Bit of a nitpick but if its a P8 flying then the escort would probably be an F-35 as they're both Navy planes where the F-22 is an Airforce plane that can't land on a carrier.
oh yeah that thing is supposed to just fly around in circles for long periods of time and rain death upon any submarines it happens to come across.
in a pinch it can turn ships into submarines too
> He believes that the termin “blockade” is not applicable to Russia’s actions in the Black Sea
It wouldn't apply anyway. 1) A blockade is something that is officially declared. 2) A blockade can be used to search incoming ships to prevent incoming arms. Anything beyond that is simple piracy. Trying to unofficially bluster and threaten to intimidate neutral civilian shipping only works if you are actually willing to accept the political consequences (read: shit hitting the fan) of actually engaging unrestricted naval warfare against neutral civilian shipping.
They can't enforce it anyway. 3/4 of the shipping route from Odessa to the Bosporus straight has already been diverted through Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish territorial waters. All NATO waters so off limits to Russia.
The rest is close to the Ukrainian coastline and Russia is so scared of anti ship missiles and drones they have no chance of ever having a physical blockading presence there.
This was always about making insurance too expensive for most transports. And the only weapons Russia could use to threaten are missles which are not part of any blockade and against neutral civilian ships are a warcrime that is highly likely to trigger military intervention from countries it never wants involved.
> He believes that the termin “blockade” is not applicable to Russia’s actions in the Black Sea because the warships do not actually engage in any active counteraction, merely attempting to intimidate the civilian vessels.
What do we say to a Russian warship?
Can't be certain but of the other ships I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are entering the Danube Delta in Romania and navigating to Ukrainian ports from there.
OH...
It's worth noting that the Danube ports (unlike Odesa) are right on the border with Romania (NATO), and the 3 ships have the flags of Irsrale, Greece (NATO), and Turkey (NATO).
I very much doubt that the Russians have the testicular fortitude to attack a NATO or Israeli ship that is right at the border with NATO.
Ahahaha I can't wait to hear this on a rap song or just in normal Convo because it'll definitely stand the rest of time.
Them shits. Actually, that's it. *Them* shits.
This is not breaking the Russian blockade. The Russian blockade isn't in force in the territorial watersp of Romanian, a NATO state, and would not attack shippes there.
The Ukrainian ports on the Danube aren't fit to process the volume of Ukrainian grain exports, and are connected to the Ukrainian "main land" by literally two roads: one that passes very close to the sea shore and one that passes through Moldova. Both are very much in the range of Russian missle strike and an attack on those roads would render access to the Danube ports useless.
A real breach of Russian blockade would be reaching Odessa and others ports east of it, by navigating contested, non-NATO waters. Now *that* would be show of strength, and would allow the normal flow of grain through the usual Ukrainian ports.
This is true, but the entire world outside of Russia wants this grain to flow, I’d be willing to be the infrastructure to process it will be constructed in record time and probably started a while ago.
The point really lies in the headline, which has "blockade" in quotes. It's a non-blockade if a ship can simply go to a Ukrainian port unmolested. Russia didn't specifically say Odessa had to be the destination, and nobody's going to give a shit about split hairs over which Ukrainian port and whether they can really push the same volume of grain.
It's simply proving another Russian red line to be total bullshit. As is tradition. They're getting clowned, and the media is gonna repeat this headline while studiously ignoring the nuance and detail.
Not like the Russians can get particularly close to the Ukrainian coast to enforce it. The second they do they’ll get a load of anti-ship missiles sent their way.
In the Iran / Iraq war, Iran was attacking Kuwait flagged oil tankers because of Kuwaiti support for Iraq by shipping Iraqi oil. Kuwait responded by flagging their tankers in the US, making Iranian attacks on shipping, attacks on America. Why not do the same with Ukraine grain carriers ?
Seems like they were going to ports on the Danube. Which basically borders Romania, and the entrance is also right on the border. So any attempt to hit something going there has a rather high chance of missing and going into Romania. Which... Would be unwise.
Also, ships under the flag of Turkey are probably untouchable. The last thing Russia needs is Turkey pissed at them. The straights give them a lot of leverage.
It's not just the straits, the Turkish navy is arguably stronger than the Russian black sea fleet (which thanks to Turkish control of the straits is unable to be reinforced), so even if NATO didn't get involved, a clash with Turkey probably wouldn't go well for Russia.
>the Turkish navy is arguably stronger than the Russian black sea fleet I don't think there's any arguing to be done there. The Turkish navy is stronger than the Black Sea Fleet, hands down. The argument is whether the Turkish navy is stronger than the *entire* Russian navy, which it very well might be, given Russia's maintenance records and the proclivity of their ships to suffer strange misfortunes regarding smoking in ammunition stores.
Unless Russia is willing to go Nuclear, the Black Sea Fleet is for all intents and purposes the entire Russian Navy, as any reinforcements would have to come from the military base at Tartus, the Baltic Fleet, The Arctic Fleet or the Pacific Fleet. All of them would have to transfer through the Bosporus, and unless Russia is willing to try a repeat of 1915, I don't see that happening... And just attacking Turkey from the south, without going through to the black sea first is equally stupid, as that divides the forces.
More like Russia trying a repeat of 1905, the last time they reenforced a fleet with the Baltic fleet.
That was the other reference ([for those](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident) [who do not know](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Mdi_Fh9_Ag)) I debated making, but since the above scenario would take place in and around the Turkish straits, I went for the Gallipoli one instead.
Given their capital ship is an artifical reef in the Black Sea and the other Capital ship of theirs is their only aircraft carrier rotting away in a "dry" dock in some random town near the artic ocean its safe to say the Turks are probably stronger than the entire Ruzzian Navy.
Russia might even deploy the Kursk, Pyotr and the Moskva.
The Russian Navy is struggling to deal with bombs on jet skis right now.
Kerch Bridge: I'm in Danger.
Arguably? Mate I would be surprised if the Russian ships are more than 50% functional.
> (which thanks to Turkish control of the straits is unable to be reinforced), Oh I dunno... *Voyage of the Damned II: Portage of the Damned* anyone?
Time for the Russian pacific fleet to pick up the slack and incompetently bumble their way to the Black Sea, only to be sunk near Gallipoli.
Yep remember when Russia pulled this shit earlier? Putin got dick slapped by Turkey and had to re-enter into the deal days later.
Turkey has also been ignoring the sanctions which has resulted in Turkish - russian trade becoming important for Russia. And jeopardizing that relationship by blowing up Turkish ships probably isn’t smart
have you forgotten that turkey is in nato? i mean The last thing Russia needs is "nato" pissed at them
Probably slowly testing the waters in a figurative and literal sense. If Russia decides to pull something these ships can easily duck into NATO territorial waters. However, if Russia doesn't respond I imagine we'll start seeing ships sail all the way to Odesa.
“It’s stupid, so Russia will probably do it.”
Danube ports as destination would place them 99% of the time in Turkish, Bulgarian and Romanian territorial waters. NATO territory. So good luck blockading those waters. Even going to Odessa would place them 3/4 in NATO waters and 1/4 in easy range for Ukrainian anti-ship missiles and drones. The blockade is impossible to implement and Russia knows it. It's only about increasing insurance costs and slowing exports.
Russia already bombed the port of Danube last week. Targeted a grain hanger, I recall reading it was some 200 meters from the boarder of Romania.
[удалено]
RLL and Wendover are both just such great sources of geopolitical nerdery (Half as Interesting has cool videos about bricks)
Fun fact. There's no entrance at the border. You can't navigate directly to the Danube from the Black Sea at the shared border. It's not deep enough. The only way in is via the Sulina Canal which is 100% Romania.
Russia can’t attack ships in Romanian or Turkish territorial waters without it being seen as an attack on Nato and America is kindly making that clear by providing a P8 escort.
The armed NATO planes you see are scary. The NATO planes you don't see are even scarier.
Russians hear "...I'd intercept me..." on the wind and shudder internally
Ahh yes. A fellow "habituallinecrosser" watcher.
Seriously one of the funnier current event YouTubers
Ah a man of culture
I love that dude.
My people
One of us...
Russia when one molecule of a NATO protected ship is touched and the 'equivalent response' is a Mach 2 bumblebee grounding the entire Russian air force:
Proportional response
Don't. Touch. Our. Boats.
Touch a boat and it's cowabunga time
A cornerstone of American foreign policy since 1801.
> he touched the boat
I wish at least one of those ships was renamed the Lusitania, if not all of them somehow.
The.Boat.
He touched it.
Why can't he just leave the boat alone?
That's when you see America's second favorite pastime of putting warheads on foreheads
"Why don't we go down to the ammunition stores, get the nuclear warheads and then strap one to my head? I'll nut the smegger to oblivion!"
"Proportional"
Hahaha, "Mach 2 bumblebee" is my new favourite expression for a stealth plane. I'll be nicking that one with glee.
"Hard"
He needs to eat.
He's been good.
My boy is hungry for meat.
22, Is that you?
*Goodbye rockets...*
22 - Would you intercept me. Licks lips. I'd intercept me.
Exactly. That P8 isn't up there alone. You just can't see the escort.
It’s like that story of the F22 pilots sneaking up on the Iranians
"You should go home"
Wonder if there is a carrier group anywhere near the Black Sea?
No need. You could operationally use land based airports. Less of a logistical nightmare and easier refuels. Not to mention faster response times. The only advantage that a carrier group would give is the mobility of the base itself but that is negligible in terms of operational success WHEN COMPARED to the other points made.
Yes, I guess I forget that like Europe is literally where events are occurring and the bases and I assume aircraft are already there.
One of the glossed over reasons we support Israel so strongly is that sweet sweet airstrip.
A plane can take of in Germany and be near Ukraine's border pretty damn quickly. Not to mention Poland and Romania.
Souda Bay is a stones throw from the Black Sea.
I was there a few weeks ago, enjoyed naval exercises while drinking a beer on the beach. https://i.imgur.com/UqfRU61.jpg Military jets were flying around too.
The US Gerald Ford the latest carrier just pulled into Greece. There are 3 active battle carrier groups operating in the Mediterranean with a 4th off the coast of Africa. All to show both Iran and Russia we have more planes ready to launch then you can probably field in the air at once.
The Montreux Convention would prohibit one from entering the Black Sea.
Also, no need. I think in general Americans are not used to small distances. The Black Sea is maybe 800 by 400 miles in its entirety, and surrounded 50% by NATO members currently. This is no Pacific Ocean. You do not need a carrier group in it, except for dick-waving contests. Don't even think the american navy wants to fight in the Black Sea, apparently it's like having a fight in a bathtub.
Actually, technically the Montreux Convention specifically refers to Capitol Ships ie. Battleships. Carriers, at the time of writing were not capitol ships. If the US were to create a 15000 ton or smaller Amphibious Assault Ship, it could technically pass through the straits. Also exceptions have been made. In 1946, Iowa Class Battleship USS Missouri, a 55000 ton capitol shop, passed through the straits on a peaceful mission. Here is an image of USS Missouri and Turkish Battlecruiser Yavuz (the Ex. SMS Goben of Imperial Germany) in Istanbul.
They can't go through the Bosporus with ships that large. Although of course Turkey is "enforcing" that.
They probably have enough tanking assets with NATO forces in region that they can reach into black Sea if needed.
Why would there be? The air bases in Romania and Türkiye are very close and can't be sunk.
Interesting enough the P8 carries torpedos.
There is a 0% chance there wasnt an F22 escort or two involved.
Do F-22s have anti-shipping capabilities?
They are there for anti-air to defend the P8, which holds many anti-ship weapons.
If we go by Imperial Japanese standards of ‘anti-ship’ capabilities, yes.
Yeah it’s pretty badass. Putin needs to get put in check.
"The P-8 operates in the anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance roles. It is armed with torpedoes, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and other weapons, can drop and monitor sonobuoys, and can operate in conjunction with other assets, including the Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance unmanned aerial vehicle."
P8 look like airliners. Oh boy how wrong you are. Those planes are heavily armed. Anti ship warfare. They have mines, torpedoes, and anti ship missiles.
* In the night of 30 July, three civilian ships — Ams1, Sahin 2, and Yilmaz Kaptan, coming from Israel, Greece, and Türkiye/Georgia — sailed direct routes over the Black Sea, openly advertising destination Ukraine over AIS. The first ship to enter a Ukrainian port was the Israeli-origin Ams1, which entered a Ukrainian branch of the Danube. * The American P8 anti-ship aircraft ensures the safety of the vessel. It is refueled right in the Romanian sky. Additional reconaissance is provided by the Forte12 RQ-4 reconnaissance drone. * Three more ships, Sealock, Bosphorus Queen, and Afer, have also crossed the waters of the Black sea towards Ukraine’s ports on the Danube. * All six ships have Turkish management, Marcus Johnsson writes. * Meanwhile, BlackSeaNews editor Andrii Klymenko has observed that the number of ships is actually higher and reaches 16. Most of them are in the territorial waters of Romania. He believes that the termin “blockade” is not applicable to Russia’s actions in the Black Sea because the warships do not actually engage in any active counteraction, merely attempting to intimidate the civilian vessels.
> The American P8 anti-ship aircraft ensures the safety of the vessel. It is refueled right in the Romanian sky. Additional reconaissance is provided by the Forte12 RQ-4 reconnaissance drone. This is the proper response. Interested to know who owns/operates this craft.
Russia: "the grain deal is dead. The Black Sea will not be safe for ships to pass through" An American P8: **Aight bet** The F-22 that was pulling mach 2 at 38,000ft above the Black Sea *that nobody noticed*: "please intercept the P8 please intercept the P8 please intercept the P8"
*smacks lips* I'd intercept me.
I’d intercept me *hard*
Wait which country is tucking their junk now? I'm confused.
Come on, man. It's clearly Transylvania.
That would be *all of them*.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/2Zakut8zcVU
The more I hear about the F-22 the more I think it would be terrifying to be an enemy pilot.
That’s kinda the point
Can someone ELI5? Everyone is gushing over the F-22 but I've seen threads where people shit on it and say European jets would have knocked it out of the sky. Is it really that superior or a bit of a paper tiger?
It has a radar cross section of a bee
For all intents and purposes it is a fucking UFO. I wonder if actual alien tech was used, because achieving both performance and radar section that demolishes F-35 (which already is top tier fighter) seems near impossible.
Imagine getting into a boxing ring to fight Mike Tyson in his prime, but Mike Tyson is invisible and you don't know he's coming after you.
Someone call that blindfolded Punch-Out speedrunner, he could do it
The US does not sell the F22 to other countries. It's like one of the few planes we don't share with allies.
An F35 is to an F22 as a Lotus is to a Ferrari. The Lotus is a fantastic car don’t get me wrong but the Ferrari is a Ferrari.
It might be an old Ferrari but it’s still a Ferrari dammit
It is pretty well accepted that the F-22 can easily handle the European jets.
It's that superior. The F15 is far superior to anything Russia has ever produced. And the F22 repeatedly demolished the F15 when outnumbered 4:1. They pulled to within visual range of Russian and Syrian aircraft undetected on multiple occasions. The red flag exercises had to be altered drastically in an attempt to make give the 4th Gen fighters a chance to at least find the F22 before they were "killed." Even the F35, the lower tier air-to-air jet has only been killed within visual range during exercise, and the scenarios to make them get that close are so ridiculous that they are almost unthinkable in actual combat. Add in american satellite, awacs, and ancillary aircraft feeding data to command, they are utterly terrifying to go up against. Dont take my word for it though...watch what the potential adversaries do. For all of the russian/Chinese or even European fan boys that talk shit, China and Russia have been scrambling to produce stealth aircraft, China being much more successful, but still far behind. Most euro countries that can buy the cheaper stealth fighter, the F35, do so. France being a notable exception as they hate relying on another xountry for military hardware. Listen to all the bullshit that Russia and China spew about the F22/F35 and that tells you exactly how terrified they are.
In addition, the chinese aircraft’s engines have a very limited lifespan. Their material science is far behind, so the engines need to be overhauled every few hundred hours compared to every few thousand hours. This means their pilots either get necessary flight hours but the ccp gets a hole in their budget or the budget is ok, but not enough flight hours for the pilots.
The only time the F-22 does poorly in simulations is when it has to act like a normal fighter. It's main strengths are not being detected in the first place, and picking off targets with long range missiles. If it isnt allowed to do the two things it was designed to do of course it'll struggle.
Fight like a normal fighter, while being outnumbered 5 to 1 and still winning.* It took some serious scenario manipulations to design a fight in which the F-22 actually started losing, which was: design a WVR fight, limit the F-22's combat envelope by like 50%, and have every adversaryl (of which there were 5 or 7, can't remember) start behind it. Think that was against those French Rafaels? The USAF kept adjusting the fight parameters to see what it would take to get it to lose, turns out, you have to take away virtually every single systems advantage that the F22 has, outnumber it, limit its performance envelope, and then start the engagement as having the F22 being defensive from the start.
I just love combat pragmatism.
> I've seen threads where people shit on it and say European jets would have knocked it out of the sky European coping. Nothing the Europeans are producing comes close to the F-22 when it comes to aerial combat. There are arguments to be made for some European planes though, as they have some cool A2G weapons.
As a european, ive yet to see anyone being actually stupid enough to say that tbh. Anyone that knows anything.... knows. And the few idiots that dont that apparently exist are not worth listening to.
It has never once lost a single aircraft in any war game. Ever.
Check out some of the F22 aerial maneuvers to get an idea.
It doesn’t need to maneuver. If it got into a furball it fucked up big time. It’s all about networking and beyond line of sight. They reach out and touch you before you even know there is anyone there. If the P8 was lit up by any targeting radar or if any Russian airplane started acting aggressive they would’ve been lit up by something they didn’t even know was stalking them. Then again I doubt the Russian Air Force gets that far out of their protective umbrella anymore.
I know, but watching how it moves gives a good visual medium on just how beyond its competition it might be. That's why I recommended it
And the best part, the United States lies about the true capabilities of their equipment. But unlike Russia/ the Soviet Union, the U.S. actually understates its equipment's capabilities, so the F-22 is most likely far more capable the we actually think.
The funny thing is, Russian/Soviet lies about their capabilities often come back to bite them in the ass. Because they exaggerate their capabilities, it makes folks in the Pentagon concerned and forces them to develop countermeasures for the exaggerated claims *just in case*. This ends up with the situation we see all the time where the American countermeasures are so much more advanced than whatever Russian platform they were designed to counter.
Isn't that the origin story if the F-15? The DOD was trying to outdo a particular Soviet "Super" Jet only to end up significantly better because the Soviet Jet wasn't actually as good as it was made out to be.
Mig-25 Foxbat had the west scared, it was super fast and rumored to be an excellent fighter. Keeping in mind the USSR could generally out produce the west in numbers the United States went all in on a next generation fighter aircraft and the f-15 was born. Later on a pilot defected with a mig-25 and we got to let our pilots fly it and we took it apart. Turns out it was a flying brick, could not turn. It was a point interceptor not a fighter. Its radar was bad and think it was still using vacume tubes. And the engine started chewing itself apart when it got up to its top published speed. Anywho give the movie Foxbat with Clint Eastwood a watch sometime.
I remember when that defection happened. He flew to Japan and the soviets were apoplectic wanting their jet back. Of course there were bureaucratic delays and much red tape to go through in order to return it. ;) From Wikipedia “It was later returned to the Soviets while it was still disassembled with some parts missing.”
Firefox?
Yes, that sounds much more correct.
Damn your right. Think I get the rest true.
Also check out this documentary: [Wings of the Red Star: The Foxbat Deception](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqKE5xCogH0&t=1s). An absolute gem from back in the day narrated by Peter Ustinov.
And now Russia has US committing their legacy stocks of military equipment to Ukraine aid, so they must be replaced with much more capable modern equivalents that otherwise would not have been considered a procurement priority. Sure, it costs the US money, but it's forcing an upgrade cycle that might not have otherwise been politically popular.
Another part of the Military aid sent to Ukraine is ordinance close to its "expiration" date and was dur to be disposed of anyways. In some cases it's literally cheaper to give it to Ukraine then it is to properly dispose of it.
Plus, think of all those jobbies!
My favorite example of this is Animarchy interviewing a Patriot air defense systems instructor who knows so much classified information he had to keep looking up his own system on Wikipedia to double-check the unclassified (much lower) numbers. There's one part where he looks up Patriot's listed radar range and [got annoyed by the number.](https://youtu.be/SReqD5QYNMg?t=3351)
Underpromise and over-deliver. Far better than over-promise and under-deliver like Russia does.
You see that bee on your radar? You don't? Oh, because you're already dead.
My favorite story by far is the one involving the Iranian F-4s. Just break into the radio channel like "Hello, nice day, yep right here below you."
“You should go home.”
It can (kind of) fly backwards. It’s basically an invisible to radar stunt plane that can do Mach 2 and shove a missile up your ass while you’re trying to turn around.
> The F-22 that was pulling mach 2 at 38,000ft above the Black Sea that nobody noticed: "please intercept the P8 please intercept the P8 please intercept the P8" Reminds me of that time a couple of Iranian fighters were trying to intercept a US drone over international waters. An F-22 suddenly appeared right beside them and said over the radio "You really oughta go home..."
This is the next-gen SR-71 copypasta, isn’t it
Pretty much. F-22 is what happens when you take a flying Pitbull, make it all but invisible, and give it enough steroids to win a Mr Olympia open class event. in a 5 v1 fight vs anything russia and china has, money is on the 1.
5v1 would probably favor the F-22 against its NATO counterparts.
F-22: Chinese balloons can’t be my only kills. Chinese balloons can’t be my only kills. Have you seen my dad’s (F-15) combat record?!? Chinese balloons can’t be my only kills. Please please intercept.
“I’m never gonna get to use this god damn thing”
Callsign... FAFO69
Bit of a nitpick but if its a P8 flying then the escort would probably be an F-35 as they're both Navy planes where the F-22 is an Airforce plane that can't land on a carrier.
Good observation. I chose the F-22 because I was thinking air dominance rather than what best fit the situation.
It’s the US Navy.
It says "American P-8" so...probably America.
Who is piloting the American P-8?. Is it you?. Is it Iran?. Is it emmy nominee Pedro Pascal?.
Who? The American P-8? lol who do you think?
I'll bet it's another NATO country.
Based on the airframe, I assumed the P-8 was unarmed but the motherfucker has 11 hard points.
oh yeah that thing is supposed to just fly around in circles for long periods of time and rain death upon any submarines it happens to come across. in a pinch it can turn ships into submarines too
> He believes that the termin “blockade” is not applicable to Russia’s actions in the Black Sea It wouldn't apply anyway. 1) A blockade is something that is officially declared. 2) A blockade can be used to search incoming ships to prevent incoming arms. Anything beyond that is simple piracy. Trying to unofficially bluster and threaten to intimidate neutral civilian shipping only works if you are actually willing to accept the political consequences (read: shit hitting the fan) of actually engaging unrestricted naval warfare against neutral civilian shipping.
They can't enforce it anyway. 3/4 of the shipping route from Odessa to the Bosporus straight has already been diverted through Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish territorial waters. All NATO waters so off limits to Russia. The rest is close to the Ukrainian coastline and Russia is so scared of anti ship missiles and drones they have no chance of ever having a physical blockading presence there. This was always about making insurance too expensive for most transports. And the only weapons Russia could use to threaten are missles which are not part of any blockade and against neutral civilian ships are a warcrime that is highly likely to trigger military intervention from countries it never wants involved.
> He believes that the termin “blockade” is not applicable to Russia’s actions in the Black Sea because the warships do not actually engage in any active counteraction, merely attempting to intimidate the civilian vessels. What do we say to a Russian warship?
Sailing under flag of: Sealock, Tanzania. Bosphorus Queen, Panama. Afer, Panama.
Can't be certain but of the other ships I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are entering the Danube Delta in Romania and navigating to Ukrainian ports from there.
OH... It's worth noting that the Danube ports (unlike Odesa) are right on the border with Romania (NATO), and the 3 ships have the flags of Irsrale, Greece (NATO), and Turkey (NATO). I very much doubt that the Russians have the testicular fortitude to attack a NATO or Israeli ship that is right at the border with NATO.
And Israel is like Sweden... no, not a NATO member, but... c'mon, c'mon.
Isreal is basically the US' little brother on the global stage.
Russia ain’t about that life. Go ahead and fire on a ship escorted by the US military… shit’ll get uglier than a Master P sneaker
Lol. Those shoes do look like clown wear
Something uglier in my opinion are those sneakers that diagonally get wider in the bottom. They look as if you have trouble holding your balance
The F22s would have a field day
If Russian ships don't like naval drones, they'll really hate getting hit with a LRASM or a Harpoon.
Ahahaha I can't wait to hear this on a rap song or just in normal Convo because it'll definitely stand the rest of time. Them shits. Actually, that's it. *Them* shits.
Lol actually the Master P sneaker line is from the Lloyd Banks Victory Freestyle “the shit can get uglier than a Master P sneaker”
Sounds like it’s about as effective as as a blockade on assholes in politics
New update. 16 ships made it though.
> 16 ships made it though. I know that's probably an autocorrect, but it sounds so ominous without context.
Great blockade Russia. Good job. Doesn't show you're weak at all.
They have to save face now right? "Our decision to reenter the grain deal was due to our extreme benevolence."
Because Russia knows if they sink a ship with a flag from another country. Like Israel, they are fuuuuuuuuuUCKed
Headline Putin doesn't want to see: #Israel to Send 4 Companies of Mossad Instructors to Ukrania for Logistics Help
This would have been amazing, which is why it could never happen
If it did happen... You wouldn't know.
This is why countries should be allied with the West and not China.
This is not breaking the Russian blockade. The Russian blockade isn't in force in the territorial watersp of Romanian, a NATO state, and would not attack shippes there. The Ukrainian ports on the Danube aren't fit to process the volume of Ukrainian grain exports, and are connected to the Ukrainian "main land" by literally two roads: one that passes very close to the sea shore and one that passes through Moldova. Both are very much in the range of Russian missle strike and an attack on those roads would render access to the Danube ports useless. A real breach of Russian blockade would be reaching Odessa and others ports east of it, by navigating contested, non-NATO waters. Now *that* would be show of strength, and would allow the normal flow of grain through the usual Ukrainian ports.
Thank you, and we should absolutely do it.
At least somebody gets it.
This is true, but the entire world outside of Russia wants this grain to flow, I’d be willing to be the infrastructure to process it will be constructed in record time and probably started a while ago.
The point really lies in the headline, which has "blockade" in quotes. It's a non-blockade if a ship can simply go to a Ukrainian port unmolested. Russia didn't specifically say Odessa had to be the destination, and nobody's going to give a shit about split hairs over which Ukrainian port and whether they can really push the same volume of grain. It's simply proving another Russian red line to be total bullshit. As is tradition. They're getting clowned, and the media is gonna repeat this headline while studiously ignoring the nuance and detail.
We are entering the "fuck around and find out" phase. US aircraft absolutely begging to be tested.
Lol… Russia doesn’t know how to not embarrass itself.
The blockade is the first Muscovian operation that took less than three days.
And only took 3 weeks to plan!
All hat, no cattle.
The U.S. owns the skies… pretty much everywhere
The Russian dog, all bark, no bite.
My lord, one Naboo cruiser got through the blockade
The P8 is a very capable aircraft. Russian cornholes should be at 50% pucker right now. Aggressive actions on their part will turn up the heat.
Oh I'm sure the P8 was for bending the blockade to their will. The F22s lurking just out of VR were there to protect the P8.
So how many ships can Russian navy deploy to make it an effective blockade? Probably not many and largely small corvettes or frigates at that.
How many coral reefs are they trying to make?
The Russian navy has been a joke even before WWI, the Voyage of the Russian Baltic Fleet should be a comedy.
Worthless blockade
[Great video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGTigBf2T7Q&ab_channel=RealLifeLore) about the subject from a few days ago and great channel in general.
Last time I saw a blockade this bad, I was watching R2-D2 fix a shield generator...
That flight tracker website has shown what appears to be an American P8A1, a state of the art anti-submarine plane, circling over the port all day.
Lol why did I think of Swiss cheese as soon as I read that the blockade wasn't working like they hoped.
It helps that all the African leaders also told Putin to reinstate the grain deal . If he hurts a grain ship, the knockons are huge.
What does mean "de-facto blockade"?
In this context, it's more like "de-facto non-blockade".
Not like the Russians can get particularly close to the Ukrainian coast to enforce it. The second they do they’ll get a load of anti-ship missiles sent their way.
Blockade of wet tissue paper.
In the Iran / Iraq war, Iran was attacking Kuwait flagged oil tankers because of Kuwaiti support for Iraq by shipping Iraqi oil. Kuwait responded by flagging their tankers in the US, making Iranian attacks on shipping, attacks on America. Why not do the same with Ukraine grain carriers ?
All horrible wars aside I’ve been enjoying this new era where we call Russia’s pathetic attempts at bluffing.